It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros. Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's me Joey p Joe, Pi's apia And if you can believe it already, it's week five in the NFL. So we're going to look ahead. Leave week four in the dust, especially with some of those injuries. Were still waiting on some word for those. We still got one more Monday night football game to go, but that will not stop us from looking ahead. We're always trying to pursue onward. We're like great explorers. It's
like Lewis and Clark. But I couldn't get those two guys, So instead I got paf fitz Morris, and I got Matthew Friedman here to help me break it all down. And we're going to do just that this morning. Pat. I'm sure you, like everybody else, had you know, an enormous over in that Seattle Detroit game yesterday.
Right, oh man? What a tract? Yeah? Like I want to go back and watch that one again. I mean it, it was on along with several other games, but I just like how we got to that point where there were almost one hundred points scored in that game. That was just wild. And by the way, start all your fantasy players against the Seahawks and Lions.
Yes, yes, that is very good advice. In the crossover, Matthew Friedman, before you completely leave Week four in the dust two. We got Kenny Pickett, we got Bailey Zappi. What a time to be alive, right.
Yeah, I mean one of those guys might end up being Rookie of the Year, which is real indictment on the rookies this year.
But he's not bitter at all. All right, let's continue on, and we'll start with the Thursday night football game, which already has two running backs who probably are not going to be playing in this one. We think we're still waiting for word as we get it, probably definitely not so much Vonte Williams in this game, Jonathan Taylor. We're
still waiting on word. But this number right now is forty three and a half is the total you're looking at Indianapolis traveling to Denver and Denver being three point road favorites in this game. If you like the Indianapolis upset right now, it's plus one forty over bettingpros dot Com. Freedman, I know there's a lot of uncertainty right now in this game. Does that lend itself to early opportunity or is this more of a cautionary tale to stay away?
Maybe?
I mean, I bet the under. I've already bet under forty three and a half. I don't think either team is really all that offensively inclined, and they're missing some of their better weapons in terms of the spread. I do have this right around where the market is at three, so I don't see any value there.
But I do like the under.
Offensively inclined. I like that. Pat fitz Morris, do you think any of these teams are offensively inclined to go over this total? Or are they more offensively challenged at this point?
Yeah?
Offensively challenged and this does feel like an undergame, there's no question. I mean, we have to call this the AFC Disappointment Ball. I would think so far, thank too.
Two teams.
They're fan bases we're certainly expecting to see in the playoffs this year and have been you know, letdowns to say the least. So yeah, looking at this one, I'm I don't know how you guys feel, but I feel like maybe Denver is a little bit better equipped to pick up the slack with a running back hurt, Like they're deeper at the position, and maybe they have more
elsewhere too. I mean the Colts, like I worry about Matt Ryan, Like, even though the Colts offensive line is is decent, when he doesn't have that running game to take the heat off him. I mean, he just he looks old this year. Let's face and he looks old. And you know, I know Russ has had some struggles too, but I just feel like there are more tricks in the magic bag for the Broncos than for the Colts.
And who knows, maybe the injury running back to Javonte Williams will force them to really open up this offense for once and see what it can do. Maybe I don't know, it'd be nice, but you know, I don't want to live in disappointment. Let's go to the next one here. Speaking of disappointment, the Green Bay Packers narrowly have just just by the skin their chinny chin chin. Pat Fitzmorris somehow dodged my Patriots, and of course that was all house money in that game. For me, I
was enjoying the hell out of that. This one is actually going to be away nine thirty in the morning start. This was going to be in London, so Green Bay gets away, far far away from the States. They are eight point favorites in this one over the New York Football Giants. Forty one and a half is the number if you like the upset plus two eighty you're getting on the Giants. Pat I know, yesterday maybe you could say that the Green Bay Packers weren't taking the Patriots
as seriously as they should have. Perhaps maybe, but some of the problems continue to rear their ugly head with this Packers offense.
It feels like, yeah, they have issues. Their passing game is not what it once was, and that seems to be luring maybe the occasional safety to the box against them to stop the run, which you never see against Aaron Rodgers normally. So yeah, and do we see another back up this week with Daniel Jones apparently with an ankle injury, so we go maybe from the third stringer on the Patriots to the second stringer and the Giants.
And uh, I saw who that was on Twitter just a second ago, and it's already slipped my mind.
Uh Taylor, Yeah, Taylor appearance briefly yesterday in the game, but it was brief.
So yeah, like, I don't know, Man, it's more than a touchdown seems too tall for this game. Even though the Giants offense yesterday, man was pretty sickly it was it was handed off to Saquon Barkley, or do some sort of bootleg where Daniel Jones pulls out and runs for his life with two guys chasing him and trying to find someone open, And of course there's no one open because they've got like you know, David Sills and Richie James are their top two wide receivers.
Yeah.
Like, on one hand, I don't know how the Giants score in this game other than just repeatedly feeding it to Barkley, giving him thirty more carries and letting him work on a somewhat soft Packers run defense because they can't throw. They just can't throw. But at the same time, like, I don't like this Green Bay offense to cover any sort of big number, especially when they're not in Lambeaus.
You feel better now, Pat? Is that good?
I do I do.
Next week?
So I'm Giants fans have some things to work through too, even though they're three and one. I mean they're they're the two shakiest three and one teams in football right now?
All right? They speaking of uh, you know shaky, the Giants are three and one? Are they the worst three and one team in football? Freman?
Yes they are? Next question.
No, looking at this game, and yeah, I think that's it's generous to call the the Packers run defense somewhat soft. They are totally soft against the run. Uh, And so that does you know match up well? I mean for for the Giants, although it's hard to say that, you know, if anything matches up well for them in general, because
they're so incompetent everywhere. But I have this exactly at seven and a half, so we have to wait to see, you know, with Daniel Jones, if this number we're forty two, I would bet the under, but it's forty one and a half forty one in some places. I have it exactly at forty one, So I would see value at forty two. And we did see an early line at forty two, but it's moved down since then, and so I don't really see any value in this game.
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match on your first deposit. Again, that's one word betting Pros on the sleeper app. Go play that over under game. Now, let's head on to the next game on our list, and it is the Pittsburgh Steelers. We think with Kenny Pickett, we assume with Kenny Pickett, not that it might change the number on this game anyway, because the Buffalo Bills are going to be hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers, who look like a train wreck right now. They are fourteen point favorites.
So this is a very large gap. Here, forty seven is the over under. Let's talk to you about this one, Friedman. Here is this number high enough.
Thirteen and a half at a couple of books where I think that creates significant value relative to the consensus of fourteen that we're seeing at the rest of the market. So I have this at fourteen point twenty five, So I mean it's not like a massive numerical difference, but going through the key number of fourteen is pretty significant. And you know we've got questions, As you said, can you Pickett in this game? I know that miss Trubisky isn't good, but he's at least a veteran. He didn't
throw three interceptions yesterday. I have the difference between about those interceptions.
I don't want to interrupt you, but like one was in the hands of Chase Claypool and he dropped it, and the other I caught it. The other one was deflected by another receiver and it was called. And the third one was a deep ball that was a chuck up at the end. So I don't want to kill Kenny Pickett. I can't believe I'm the Kenny Picken here for those three interceptions. That's not fair.
That okay, that's fair.
I was using it more as an illustrative point that I do think that Trubisky, even though like he's not good, he probably still has an edge over a rookie making his first start. So like, I think there should be a deduction from Trubisky to Picket. The question is like how much of a deduction is that? And then on the other hand, we also have Buffalo who I think will be getting healthier in this game relative to what we've seen in the past couple of weeks. So Christian
Benford wanted their cornerback to be coming back. Trudeavius White is eligible to come back off the pup in this game, so like their secondary could be getting a significant boost, some of their defensive tackles could return, So I think they will be healthier than what we've seen. So thirteen and a half I think offers value fourteen is probably about right. But the difference between thirteen and a half and fourteen at this point of the year is pretty significant, all right.
I'm in the mind that it can't be worse than Mitchell Trubisky here, but it's still not to be good against Buffalo pat That's how I look at this one. And Buffalo showed a lot of heart yesterday coming back down by seventeen points at one point in that game, coming back to win on the road. That was a huge victory for them, especially after dropping a game to Miami the previous week. So what are your thoughts on this early line here at fourteen? Is it big enough?
Yeah? I think it is big enough, and for me, it might be a little too big. I mean, you just mentioned it, Joe, Buffalo has been through two pretty tough games now, and maybe they have kind of a letdown spot. Certainly, this is the worst edition of the Steelers that we've seen in a long long time. Like I can't remember one really worse than.
The less I don't know, I'm yeah, I think we're going back to it. But maybe they are better for having like ripped off the Mitch Trubisky band aid, and maybe Kenny Pickett is the guy who better lets them leverage the talents of Deontay Johnson, George Pickens, and Chase Claypool because Trubisky really wasn't doing that for them. So yeah, I think fourteen is a little tall for me here too. Even though Friedman is slightly on the Bill side of this,
I'm kind of slightly on the other side. I think maybe there is a little value to getting Pittsburgh at less than two touchdowns.
Let me add just a little context to this, the Bills trying out the Bills the Steelers. Out of all of the teams that haven't suffered an injury at quarterback, the Steelers are the team that I have downgraded the most in my power ratings since the season started. So there is a possibility that I've overreacted to what we've seen out of the Steelers and then I'm discounting, you know, pick it too much. So I will say that like that is a possibility.
I mean, in case, don't you want to wait then? Like, shouldn't we wait to see if his line grows to fourteen and a half or even fifteen plus? Because it feels like if you think that Pittsburgh might be pluckier here now with a little change of QB and maybe Buffalo overlooks them early, or there's garbage time or all those circumstances, don't you want the bigger number then and maybe be a little more patient on this one.
Yeah, I mean, if you're on pat side, if you like the Steelers, and the Steelers have historically been good as underdogs, so like this is kind of their spot. If you like the Steelers, I think you wait on this number. I don't think it's going to get shorter.
See I disagree, like I don't want to see I think this number could get a little shorter. I don't think it goes to fourteen and a half because I think people are gonna see those trends like what Mike Tomlin has done as an underdog. But I think we know we should probably throw those trends out the window with this Steelers team because this is not like any of Tomlin's other Steelers teams.
Yeah, no, TJ. Watt, no Ben Roethlisberger. They're missing a lot of pieces that historically we've seen in the past. Let's take a quick break in the action to tell you about bet MGM, the King of sportsbooks. Sign up today with bet MGM and use that promo code betting pros when you do, and your first wager is risk free up to one thousand dollars. Visit betmgm dot com for terms and conditions, and don't forget to use that promo code betting Pros. That's one word, betting pros when
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Chargers are three point road favorite to this one. Forty eight and a half is the number freedmen will start with you in this one. Look, Cleveland had some opportunities that are late in the game. They did not take advantage of them. Now they go home and lick their wounds a little bit. But the Chargers still a team that is dealing with a myriad of injuries. Keenan Allen was unable to get on the field last week. They were missing Bosa, J C. Jackson. Still a lot of
issues there. So I'll ask you, just out of curiosity, is the wrong team favor in this game?
I don't believe so, but I do like the over over forty eight and a half and I bet this last night. Both of these teams can score points and both of them have wounded defenses. You know, the Browns have been much better on offense, and I anticipated with you Gobe Brissette being pretty efficient and they're going to be able to run all over this Chargers rush defense, I mean, probably the worst in the league. If it's not Pat's Packers run defense. I mean there, they are bad.
And we know that the Chargers, on the other hand, can score points, and they're going against the defense that is pretty wounded, especially on the front, and so I don't think they're going to be able to get the same pass rush that we would normally expect against the Chargers, and so it's not as big of a deal if they're missing their you know, all pro left tackle. So I think we're gonna see points in this game.
Pat, are you concerned at all? You know, when you have Kaream Hunt and Nick Chubb to run the football and the Chargers and ability at times to stop the run, that once again, maybe this game might be a lot higher than people realize.
It could be. Joe, Like, my first instinct is that the Chargers are a much more complete team. But you know, they might have the Achilles that the Browns can really exploit here with that run defense. And it's the reason my instinct says to like the under in this. I went on a long rant on our Live Betting Pros Game Day live stream yesterday morning about scoffing at such a high total for a Jacoby Brissett game with the Browns and the Falcons yesterday, and you know, hit the
under and it did come through. But man, I feel a little differently about that this week, with the Browns going up against a team that is so ill equipped to handle Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.
Yeah, that's my concern for this one as well. That'll be a fascinating outcome. I think the wrong team's just straight up, you know, not favored. I think I think the Chargers should be the underdog in this game. I really do. But we shall find out very soon. The Houston Texans, still winless on the year three and one, will take on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville got tested in the rains in Philadelphia. It wasn't very sunny there at all.
Not for the Jaguars. At least. They are seven point favorites, though at home against Houston, forty four and a half is the number. Now, Pat, I love the Jaguars this year. I'm very I'm enjoying this run that they're on, this rejuvenated squad here after some miserable seasons, especially last season being just the bottom of the barrel. But in this case here, are you ready to make them seven point favorites even against a team like Houston? Yeah?
Is it a left down spot for them after you know, the big stage of going to Philadelphia and playing a game that a lot of people were interested in. And I'm still sort of interested in the Jags at seven points. If it gets to seven and a half, I'm totally off. But like I do think the Texans are pretty overmatched here.
Like we've seen the Jaguars are pretty capable on both sides of the ball, and whatever magic we saw from from Davis Mills and the Texans offense, and you know, I would hesitate to call it actual magic late last season, but that passing game is really not looking as good as it did last December. So you know, I'm fairly comfortable with the Jaguars here. Is kind of a bigger home favorite but I just don't want to see that number get to seven and a half, so I might grab it at seven today.
Matt, do you agree that this is the time to grab this Jaguars number.
I don't. I don't know, to be honest.
I mean, I have this at six point twenty five, so I lean slightly towards the Texans, but I assure you I am not betting on the Texans in this spot.
At seven.
I think it's right around where it should be. I in this game actually prefer the over, which I feel disgusting saying the overs, because you know, overs have not been hitting well this year, although we're about even on overs the past two weeks, so yesterday helped.
I think, Yeah, the.
Market, the market has evened out on the overs and the unders. And you know, forty three and a half that is a low number, and this Jags team, they can score a lot of points. I have this number at forty five, so I bet forty three and a half over last night. And man, the Jags they could get this all on their own with a couple of you know, pill goals from the Texans to help out.
Okay, let's move to the next one. Here, The Minnesota Vikings at home, also seven point favorites here over the Chicago Bears. The numbers forty three flat, and obviously we know that the Bears have not been a good football team so far this year. Is this an early opportunity to get on the Vikings bandwagon in Week five? Even?
Man, it's tough because we've got the travel from London and so a lot of teams haven't historically opted to play the week after London. And I mean the Vikings had a weird travel schedule and that they didn't get to London until a couple of days before the game, whereas the Saints they got there like early in the week and they acclimated. So I'm not really sure how the travel is going to impact this, and so I'm
kind of taking more of a hands off approach. I do have this at seven point seven to five, so you know, in theory, given that this number is at seven, there's value there.
And I might, I don't know, I might be too high on Chicago.
Just given how horrible they are on offense, but I still think their defense is pretty decent. So man, I don't know seven fields out right?
How about you pat the seven field right to you, or do you think we're giving the Bears too much credit?
No, I think we're giving the Vikings too much credit. I think I think, yeah, I mean, that's it.
But I mean maybe.
It's maybe it's my bias in the rivalry showing through here. But I think the Vikings are paper tiger and they're still getting overvalued because of that Week one game against the Packers. And we kind of saw that in London. I mean, the Saints were very much evenly matched with them. That was pretty much a toss up game. It comes down to the bounce of a field goal off the crossbar.
So I do think the Bears are Yes, they're certainly deserving of being a bigger underdog here, but they play the kind of football where they can hang in a game like this, Like they play conservatively. They're basically just trying not to lose field position or give it away with turnovers. And like, I don't know, I just I don't think the Vikings are going to offul London game, off a big travel week like just crush the Bears here. I see this being a competitive game, all right.
Bill, Let's move on to the next one. Here, the Detroit Lions in that same division, lost yet again. So for all the grit that they talked about in Hard Knocks, they're not quite showing enough of it on the field. The New England Patriots are home hosting the Lions. They are two and a half point favorites. The number is
forty seven in this one. If you like the upset, you can get Detroit on the money line at plus one twenty pat I know a lot of injuries in this game too, Potentially we have to wait to get sorted out. I'm on Rossaint Brown. Does DeAndre Swift come back? We've also got questions about DJ Hark, We've got questions
about Mac Jones on the Patriots side. Are there are too many questions to get an early beat on this game or does that mean it's an opportunity to take advantage of one of these sides because of these injuries?
Yeah, maybe an opportunity. I just wonder if the Patriots might have too much class here and like a Bill Belichick team as this small a favorite, basically saying in a neutral site, this is a pick or less. You know, home field is no longer worth a full three points. It's closer to two and do I like Bill Belichick and a coaching matchup with Dan Campbell, absolutely, And you know, like if I were playing for Campbell, I'd run through a wall for the guy. But I also don't know
about some of the game management decisions. We know Detroit does not hold leeds very well. I just think this is kind of a spot where I want to be on New England. I mean, we just saw them, like give the Packers all they could handle with a third string quarterback on the road. So you know, I am betting on the class here of the Patriots.
All right, how about you, Freeman betting on the class of the Patriots or the fact that the Patriots might be starting Bailey Zappi in this game.
Yeah, I'm I'm on the other side of this, and I haven't bet it yet, but I am seeing a plus three at Caesar's and I might.
Bet that after I'm done talking. I have this.
I have this at plus one for Detroit, So I am seeing value there and you know, like one to two and a half, there's not that much of a difference there, but when you hit three, then their significant difference and the Bailey's Appy factor, you know, like I don't know if he's worse than Brian Hoyer, but he probably is. Like if I'm knocking, can he Pickett a point? You know versus Trubisky because it's his first NFL start? I should probably do something similar for Zappy versus Brian Hoyer.
And you know they are they being the Lions. They are missing a number of players, but some of those guys are going to come back this week, like DeAndre Swift, He's probably out, but a mon ros Saint Brown Chark was close to playing last week. Both of those guys might come back. They also might get back left guard Jonah Jackson. You know their kicker, Austin Sebert, he might come back.
I don't know.
I I'm on Detroit. You know Dan Campbell as a favorite, that's not where you want to be. But Dan Campbell is an underdog. That is when the Lions start to bark, to mix everything together. So I think I'm gonna be on the Lions in this spot.
Lions are barking here on the show. There you go. You have it, Seattle at New Orleans in this one, New Orleans loses on the double doink four and a half point favorites in this one, regardless at home against the Seattle Seahawks. Forty three and a half is the number. If you like the Seahawks upset, it is plus one point eighty right now on the money line to take them outright, Gino Smith, Sean Penny, Seattle Seahawks yesterday getting
the job done. Friedman, any any chance you were repressed enough with what you saw out of the Seahawks yesterday to be concerned for this four and a half on the New Orleans.
Side, talk to Fitz because I am betting.
The last week sure fits same question to you, my friend. Look, I mean, I think the Seahawks have you want to talk about. Pluckiness is something you mentioned on the show quite a bit. The Seahawks have kind of shown that a little bit. It's kind of them against the world and this is another perfect setup and Alva Kamara was
out for that last game and Winston once again. A lot of injuries here or four and a half number, I think is kind of telling you in a perfect world, if everybody's healthy, and when the Saints were winning games, this is probably a six, right or a six and a half. But it's four and a half right now. So do you feel like this is an opportunity or do you feel this is a trap?
I feel like this is a stay away for me, Joe. I mean, the Seattle offense has been fun. And how hilarious is it that we have gotten the narrative for so many years about like Ross being constrained, having these manacles on him by Pete Carroll and the design of the Seattle offense and now they trade him get you know, a bevy of draft capital in return, and now they're running this wide open, fun offense everyone wanted to see all along.
It hasn't been fun all year, but it was funny, right.
Yeah, so and doing it with Gino smethic quarterback. So yeah, but yeah, there's it's one thing to go against Detroit's defense, It's another to go against a professional defense, which is what New Orleans has. So I don't know if we're going to see the same sort of pyrotechnics from the Seattle offense that we saw yesterday. And yeah, I just like I think these numbers are about right. Like the wild card is maybe the travel situation for the Saints.
Do they have sort of a letdown after losing a game that they were highly competitive in and such a heartbreaking way, you know, coming back to a game they should win, but do they Maybe? I don't know. Is this a letdown spot for them? I just I don't really feel anything about this game. I think it could go any which way and I kind of don't want to touch it.
Well, Friedman, here's another team traveling back from London. They're going to face the Seahawks. Certainly this feels very trappy for New Orleans. They lost, well, they could have tied the game. Let's put that way on the field goal and things that not go their way. It's a long flight back to think about all the things that went wrong. How do you look at this contest you're coming up in Week five between the Saints and the Seahawks.
I have this number at four point seventy five, So the consensus is five. I don't really see any value it's and this this New Orleans scene, there are so many injury questions with it. We don't know if Andy Dalton starting or if it's Jameis Winston. Michael Thomas was out, Alvin Kamara was out, you know, mark Ingram was in and out of the game.
Left guard Andrews Pete.
So like they're just They're dealing with so many injuries, and Seattle is running so well right now. It's like it's like the guy who gets divorced, uh, and like everything that the ex wife was like complaining about, he's now like doing with the new wife. It's like, oh, we're taking the trip to to London, you know, like everything. It's like the ex wife is just looking at this
being like, why can't you do that when we were together? Anyway, That's that's like what's going on with Seattle right now. I don't know what to make out of that offense, Like is this something that is sustainable or is it not?
I have this near the number. I'm just staying away, Okay.
I think it's a fascinating upset. I just don't think New Orleans is as good as people want to get. I think they're living in the past when it comes to New Orleans a little bit. This team. They just don't seem to have any sort of cohesion to this unit at all. The Jets might not be the doormat they used to be. I don't know if there's good to a good football team quite yet either. They are three point underdogs at home this week against Miami Miami's three and one. The Jets are two and two. They
were very competitive in that game against the Steelers. Granted it was the Steelers, but it was in Pittsburgh. Forty four and a half is the number if you like the Jets for the upsets plus one twenty five on the money line. Freedman, I know Zach Wilson's return yesterday. I don't think you can call it triumphant, but he did have some moments certainly in that game, as did the offense in general. And Miami still looking like most
likely Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback for them. So how much of an impact does that make on this line for you when you're looking at this game early Monday morning.
Yeah, Zach Wilson returned, that's what we can say. And with Tua, the drop from Tua to Teddy, that is a real question because before the season started I would have had I don't know, some smart people had that number two, like multiple people had that number two. It
would have felt a little bit closer to me. But we have seen Tua play really well this year, and you know, I think some of that is the system, but you know, maybe I should also assume some of that is just too a with a competent, competent group around him, with coaches, with the receivers actually progressing and taking a step forward. So I have that number right now as one and a half point difference. Maybe I should go to two, but either way, I have this
number right around where it is now. The number is three in the market. I have Miami at three point twenty five. So if it's I don't really see any.
Value on it.
Fits Do you see any early value at all in this game?
Yeah?
I think the Jets are kind of a plucky dog here, and I think we're still the betting public is maybe still it has the image of the Jets as lovable losers, and maybe they are starting to shed that a little bit. And for all the for everything they've handled, the Wilson injury and the preseason having to roll out with Joe Flack at the beginning of the season, that the rotating cast they've had to use it left tackle, this defense is starting to get legitimate. Sauce Gardner like his gives them.
They did not have someone they could lean on in their secondary to cover top receivers last year, and I think they've got that now with Sauce Gardner, Like, I think this team is for real and you know Miami with the quarterback change. I agree with Friedman, I, you know, tend to think it's maybe worth less than two points. You know, we've we've seen Teddy be a competent. He's uh, you know, as our friend Scott Piinowski, Yaho would say,
he is a spare tire. He's the donut. Like he can he can get you across town to go to a yoga session or go get groceries. But you don't want to go across state lines with him for you know, more than a short period. So yeah, like I see a little value in the Jets here, Like I think they're a legitimate team. Maybe Zach Wilson is a downgrade from Joe Flacco, but he's got some weapons, man like Dog Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore. And he seems to love Corey Davis too.
He does. So Corey Davis was the big standout to me yesterday in those games, those big moments, that's what he was looking for and that's we found in that game against the Steward.
Yesy, and I can't fail to mention Tyler Conklin who you know, is very good and looks like Kyle Drogo from a Game of Thrones, so also.
A good look. Yeah, yes, yeah, we all wish we could look like that. Atlanta Falcons at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Oh man, Tampa got down early and it just wasn't enough for them to come back in that game. They are eight and a half point favorites though this week against the Atlanta Falcons as they travel to Tampa. Forty seven and a half is the number for this one.
So Pat, let's talk about this. We've seen a lot bigger numbers this week than we've seen I think all year, probably a bit of the schedule, but probably also just finally getting a little bit more of an identity of some of these teams. So do we have enough of identity of the Falcons right now at this juncture to think that Tampa's going to stomp them to an eight and a half point deficit here? Yeah?
Maybe not.
I mean, Atlanta has been pretty plucky so far, but I'm a little less inclined to do anything with the side here than the total, which I think is a tad high. I just don't think this Buccaneers offense is as dangerous as it was last year, And it seems to me like there are times when it looks like Brady just wants to get rid of the ball quickly, like you know, he is very eager to just check down and not take a hit. And you know we're seeing these at all two and three yard Leonard Fournette
completions wide of the field. Sometimes it seems like even before the Buccaneers receivers have time to get into their patterns. So this number does seem a little tall because I've never really believed in the Atlanta offense, and I don't know if the Bucks can push this one over themselves.
Okay, well, the Bucks defense certainly had a longer night at the offense last night. Excuse me, longer night the office last night, Friedman. When you are looking at this number here and what you've seen other Bucks this year, it seems like Tom Brady either says it's Mike Evans or it's nobody. So is that going to be enough in this one to really get them over that eight and a half number? In your opinion?
Yeah, I have this very close to ten, just to shade under ten. So I am on the Buccaneers in this spot, but I will say maybe I haven't been quick enough to adjust them down.
But I still think they have one of the best defenses in the.
League, regardless of what we saw last night against a very good Chiefs offense, and with the weapons that they have returning, I think the offense will progressively improve. So I like the Falcons. I like their offense, but I think their defense still has a lot of vulnerabilities. So I am on the Buccaneers in this spot, and you know, like Tom Brady coming off of a loss, I just I think he's gonna smash in this spot.
Tennessee Titans, fresh off and important win, are two and a half my favorites on the road against Washington, who got pummeled by Dallas as many of us thought that they would in that defense. So no surprise there. Forty two and a half is the number for this one. But I have to ask this readman, is this the classic Tennessee Titans let down where they look good, they big that big game, they've got it against the Colts, and then they go and they drop a turd basically
over in Washington. Because it seems like this is just shaping up to be one of those kind of moments.
Yeah, this it feels like for both teams. This is the kind of spot in which Carson Wentz would somehow like be a competent quarterback and the Titans would look like an offense that just has no idea what they're doing.
So I have this number very close to it. Pick them. I have it ate point twenty five.
And I feel disgusting being on the Commanders in this spot, which might be the sign that this is the right side here. So I am on the Commanders. I bet it last night at plus three. I think you can still find that number in a couple of books. But plus two five is in the market, not nearly attractive, but I still see value at that number.
Plus one twenty five on the money line. Come on, fits, let's go. This has got to be classics, classic Tennessee Titans right at this time, where you know, they win the game you're worried about, and then they go on the road and they lose the game that they probably should romp on somebody. But I mean, I know the Commanders looked terrible last week, but you got to shake that off because it's week to week here in the NFL.
Your thoughts on the Commander's opportunity here to maybe even upset the Titans outright.
Like Friedman doing a look aheadlines on Sunday morning before the Week four action took place, or at least the Week four Sunday action. I had this game as a pick. I'm also, and then we saw Washington go out and look absolutely terrible, So I guess that is the reason this line is opening where it is. Yeah, Washington's offense was very functional in the first two weeks of the season, and it is completely driven off the road in the last two weeks of the season.
I don't know by good pass rushes, to be honest. Yeah, those teams had good pass rushes, So I don't think the Titans pass rush is the same thing as like, you know, Micah Parsons and Marcus Lawrence.
No exactly, There's there's no Harold Landry, so like this is definitely a better spot for Washington to rebound. So, yes, as gross as it feels too on the side of the Commanders, that's where I am too.
All Right, we haven't seen anything yet tonight. We have to wait for the forty nine Ers and Rams to see what those two teams do. But in the meantime, the forty nine ers are regardless four and a half point favorites on the road against the Carolina Panthers. Oh, the Carolina Panthers have one win. The number for this game is thirty nine and a half. Is that number low enough fits?
Yeah, I guess it is. Boy, it is just and I've got this, uh, I've got you know, Carolina's four point dogs instead of four and a half. But I refuse to recognize value with a Baker Mayfield quarterbacks team. So yeah, like I just I can't. I can't back the Panthers right now. That offense is just too you know, an offense with Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore just to be non functional. At this point, I wonder how soon we're gonna see Sam Darnold back in you know, once his uh.
Well just got chills when just straight up my spine, I think, say, maybe it's time we don't see Matt rule. That's what I thought. That was probably a more likely scenario.
Getting close to that time too. But think of that where the fans might be relieved to see Sam Darnold's or maybe you know, skip directly to Sam Howell some sort of Sam, but not Baker Mayfield anymore, because I just don't want to watch any more of him running this offense.
Friedman, have you seen enough of the Panthers here? Do you think that they stand a chance of this number? Four and a half?
Where I have this exactly for I think the total is about right. Let's move on to the next game.
All right, very good? So running away. These gentlemen are no courage at all in this game. I don't blame them. I have no faith either. Philadelphia Eagle is the only undefeated team left in the NFL. They are five and a half point favorites traveling to Arizona team with no defense. Forty nine and is half is the number. Now, the Cardinals did get a w yesterday. There's some things that certainly went their way. The defense did create some turnovers, make some moments, so I want to give them some
credit here. But this is a different class of opponent. I think this week where you're getting the Philadelphia Eagles coming to town. So Friedman, five and a half. The weather will not be an issue in this game. This is in Arizona. So do you think that this number might be too small?
I bet this at six at DraftKings I did it last night.
That number is still available. I feel disgusting doing it.
You know, Arizona I have very little faith in them organizationally, I have no faith in head coach Cliff Kingsbury. I do have a little bit of faith in Kyler Murray and Phoenix.
Not Phoenix, Philadelphia.
They got a little they got a little beat up on Sunday. Left tackle Jordan Mulatto left the game, They lost their right guard, they lost Darius Slay, Avonte Maddox wasn't playing, like not all of those guys are going to return. And Philadelphia at four, and oh, I think the hype is just getting a little too strong here. And so I am on the Cardinals and I'm just holding my breath because I don't feel good about it. But I do see value in this. I think this number should be about three.
All right, fits, How do you feel Freeman brings up some of those injuries now? At the same time, the Arizona Cardinals have not been a very good football team, let's be honest, so far this year, and despite a couple of wins, I think some of things have really bounced their way for some of those victories. The Eagles seem like a much better team just in terms of a class above them, regardless of the pieces they might be missing. But is it enough in this game for you?
Oh, the Eagles are definitely better, but they are traveling cross country in this game. Friedman mentioned the injury concerns, and just as last week when Friedman and I thought it was pretty gross to be betting the Cardinals in Carolina, we did it and that was the way to go. And I kind of feel the same way that there's value to the Cardinals as a home dog here.
All right. The Dallas Cowboys, at three and one, will travel to Los Angeles to play the Rams. The Rams will be five and a half point favorites, and this one, forty five and a half is the number. This one feels about right. I want to give the Cowboys some credit, though, because they've certainly been more petitive with Cooper RuSHA I
think any of us thought they might be. Is this another one of those spots where they're more competitive than we think they might be fits or is this them just getting out class potentially by the Rams on the road.
No, I think they could be more competitive than we think and that's seven and a half is big, and that's the reason I have no interest in the Rams and maybe some interest in the Cowboys at this number, but I think I'm more interested in the under here. Like this Dallas defense is for real and it's pretty ferocious, and we've not seen the Rams offense in on all
cylinders at any real point this season. So plus they're going to be coming off a short week following the Monday night game, and you know, Dallas obviously as offensive limitations of their own with Cooper Rush at quarterback, although he has been a very competent game manager in Dak Prescott's absence, so to me, like I had the total at forty four, So I see definite opportunity here with the under, but I don't think I'm going to play a side.
How about you here, Friedman? With that defense and the game management of Cooper Rush, is that enough here? Or maybe this five and a half number isn't really as safe as people think it is.
Yeah, I'm upset myself for not betting this at six and a half last night. I think I think there's a real chance that this is the game Dak Prescott returns.
You know, there are reports.
Adam Schefter yesterday said that Dak Prescott is eyeing Week five as a possible return date, and so I think there is the possibility. And even if that doesn't happen, Cooper Rush has been more than competent as the fill in, and the Rams are also pretty injured, both on the offensive line and in the secondary. So, you know, at five and a half, I think this number is pretty close to where it should be. Let me see where
I have it right now. I have it at five point twenty five, which is kind of factoring in like the possibility of Dak returning at six and a half.
I think there would value there.
Okay, moving on to the next contest, we have the primetime game Sunday night, the Baltimore Ravens three and a half point favorites against the Cincinnati Bengals. This one could be very fun. Forty seven and a half is the number here in this one, Freeman, Is that over under total a little on the lower side, you think for these two offenses? Let me see here, Well, these two defenses, I couldn't even phrase it that way.
I have this close to fifty.
Yeah, that sounds about right to me.
Yeah, So I do see value there, and honestly, I see value on the Bengals. It feels a little wrong to say that because I have been really impressed by the Ravens. But three and a half in a divisional game with Cincinnati getting extra rest, I think there is value.
There Cincinnati getting extra rest. But well, the Baltimore Ravens lose two home games in a row, fits you think.
Yeah, that's the trend I worry about because I did have this as more of like a two point game. I feel like on a neutral site, these teams are even. But that's the thing, Like, I don't like betting against the Ravens when they're playing at home, especially coming off a home loss, So I might just settle on playing the over, which like Freeman, I don't have it as
high as he had. I had it at forty eight, and you said it's forty seven and a half, right, So you know, a little bit of value on my projection, A lot of value in Freedman's projection.
Yeah, I like the over the way these two defenses have played so far this year. Give me the over in this one. Las Vegas Raiders will head to Kansas City. Kansas City is seven and a half point favorites in this one. Fifty two and a half is the number, so fits you know, it's an indivision game. Sometimes we say those are always a little bit more peculiar than
people ever expect. Could this end up becoming another one of those games where you know, you see the Kansas Chiefs look really good one week, and then next week they're at home and they struggle against the Raiders. Do you think they smash in this one?
Yeah? I've learned some hard lessons about the perceived invincibility of the Chiefs in the past betting them at big numbers. Once again, I'm kind of inclined to lay the points
with the Chiefs. But maybe it is one of those things where after just coming out of the gate, roaring out of the gate against the Buccaneers on Sunday night, where they just struggle to move the ball against the Raiders, like it's plausible, but it's kind of improbable because the Raiders are still a little bit banged up in the secondary. That's not what you want to be going against the Chiefs and Arrowhead. So I do see some value in the Chiefs here, even as a big home favorite.
All Right, do you like the spread here or maybe the fifty two and a half number over? What are your thoughts here, Friedman on this one.
Yeah, this number is seven at DraftKings. That's the only seven I'm seeing in the market right now. And I would bet that I bet this on the look ahead at six and a half. Was, you know, obviously very happy to get that. I still see value at seven because I think this number should be about nine. And the Raiders, Yeah, they got to win yesterday and there was a lot of luck involved in getting that win.
I mean, now you could say there was some luck involved in them not winning some of their earlier games, but you know, they had a fumble six like to swing this game. Like, I think that the Raiders are still pretty fraudulent, and I think the Chiefs are, if not the best team in the league. Is that should be, you know, the Bills and anyone's power ratings, But I think the Chiefs are pretty cleanly the number two team in the league, and I think they take care business here.
All right, let's take care of business here with the boys and find their favorite early look ahead bets for Week five in the NFL. For even let's stick with you give me your three favorite things that you saw so far this morning that you want people to jump on.
Yeah, Washington plus three. I still think there's value there against Tennessee. We have Fits and I both talked about Arizona plus six against Philadelphia.
Arizona at home.
It's a disgusting bet, but Arizona is underdogs, you know, that's when they historically outperformed. And then yeah, Kansas City minus seven against the Las Vegas Raiders.
I will be on that all day long.
All right, Fits you, what are your three favorites looking ahead to Week five?
J E t SS jets ch Jets No like that getting getting the field goal against the Dolphins, and presumably Teddy Bridgewater, the backup quarterback. I think this is a different Jets team and they're still getting undervalued. Uh. The Cardinals. Uh, we're gonna keep riding this train together, Friedman, you and I before it goes over the over, off the rails and over a cliff. Yeah, yeah, we are going to
take the six points. And uh, finally, I also agree with that Chiefs pick minus seven, Like that's just not enough for them against the Raiders.
That's your early look ahead for week five in the NFL. If you need more help, you can always go to Bettingpros dot com, where we have all kinds of amazing content. We've got the prop bet cheat sheet, We've got incredible tools and articles to help you get everything you need and don't forget to subscribe to our Betting Pros channel over on YouTube YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros and go play a little over under game have some fun
with your friends. Sleeper app. Go to Sleeper dot app slash Betting Pros that Sleeper dot app slash Betting Pros. Use the promo code betting Pros when you sign up, and you'll get a one hundred dollars deposit match on your first deposit. Doesn't get much better than that, except maybe hanging out with these two guys and talking football every single Monday morning. I love it. Little Monday morning quarterbacking for the week ahead. That'll do it for us. But the story of the game goes on for Pet
and Matt. I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time, kids,