Hey there, everyone, and welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL Podcast, brought to you by Bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris and you can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Adi. It is time for our early look at next week's lines, and with me to break it all down is Chris Jamino, director of Premium content over at Roto Grinders. You can find him on Twitter at Chris Jamino. That's g I M I n OL. Chris. Thanks a lot for coming on the show today. How's it going, Oh, it's going great.
I've got minshew Mania and Live bet the Jaguars right at the end of that Denver game last week, so I ended up making a little bit of a what was a pretty bad week otherwise, So I'm ready to talk football.
I'm a little encouraged to hear that you had a bad week because I had a terrible week and I had been going on a really good run and I'm hearing this, frankly from a lot of people. This week was just brutal, man. I mean, you know, I didn't I tried to stay away from the public whenever I could, but I found myself going with you know, a lot of the favorites that we're getting a lot of the numbers of bets backing, and it was just a brutal
week for me. So I'm glad other than you managed to stalvage a little bit with the Jaguars Broncos game. I'm glad to hear that it was also a tough week for you, because it really I got my butt kicked. I'm not gonna lie about it, but hopefully we can
turn around here now. I want to say off the bat, how excited I am not to have to deal with the line on whatever game the Dolphins usually play because they're on a bye, because I think we're basically in historic territory here with the Finns and I never know how to properly analyze align with them. Are you with me there by the way that they've basically broken the NFL sports betting framework or what?
No, I'm not.
I think that their draw of opponents has just been brutal to start this season. I think that we're talking about some really good teams that they've seen so far. Now, I do think they're bad. I don't think they're historically bad, but they're definitely near the bottom. I mean, I look at this team over and I don't see a lot of redeeming qualities. But I don't know if I'm necessarily in agreement that this is some sort of historically bad team,
at least not the very worst team you've seen. I mean, you know, back in the day, there were some pretty bad Saints teams and stuff. So I don't know if this is the worst one ever.
I think that's fair to me. I don't know, man, when I'm looking at them, I'm wondering where they're going to rank historically in terrible teams. And regardless, the bottom line is that every single week I see value in the line and I can't bring myself to pull the trigger on it. Which has been good, but I don't know how high the lines need to get for me to feel comfortable with them. But regardless, today you and
I are going to go through each game. Now, we're going to be using the consensus odds over at bettingpros dot com. That's an aggregation of the odds that are available on the market. As always, there are going to be differences at the various sports books, so shop around for the best odds. Also, if you want to see how some of the top sports betting experts are leaning on any given bet at any given time. Bettingpros dot
Com is going to show you that too. All right, Chris, let's slide right in here with the Rams at the Seahawks on Thursday night. Now, this line, as far as I can tell, it has bounced around a ton. I think the early look at the Rams favored by at least a couple of points. I checked last night and the Rams were favored by one. But now these Seahawks are favored by one and the over under is forty nine. You have any major reaction to that line.
Yeah, this might be one of my favorite spots that I've looked at so far earlier in the week. I just think that the Rams are going to be undervalued at this point after the performance they had last week against Jameis Winston. You know, the defense definitely let them down. Marcus Peters got shredded for a long touchdown by Mike Evans. You know, there was just a lot of breakdowns and some turnovers that really made this team look pretty bad. I think that's probably what we're seeing here as the
line fluctuates back and forth. But at the end of the day, if we're going to give the Seahawks favorite status here, then I'm definitely going to take the Rams on the money line straight up.
Yeah, I don't. I mean, look, when you're moving from minus one from the Rams to minus one from the Seahawks, it doesn't really do anything, you know, it's kind of a meaningless move when you're looking at the spread. But I do think that this is an overreaction to yesterday's game. I don't know what that was. I mean, it was shocking basically how bad the Rams defense was ripped apart by Jameis Winston. But really in the other end, I mean, maybe people are reading a bit too much into it.
From the Seahawks side of it as well. They have a pretty convincing win over and admittedly bad Arizona team. I think the difference is that realistically, the Seahawks have not looked very good, and they didn't even look great
yesterday against Arizona. They did get the defensive touchdown where Clowning made the great play on the screen, but you know, other than that, you know, I think they put up twenty seven points, So I think they put up twenty overall, not an overly impressive showing, so I'm inclined to agree with you. The total doesn't jump out at me, But for me, I'm definitely seeing value on the Rams here at the early number, and I don't know which way it's going to go because it really has bounced back
and forth pretty quickly. Of course that there's in that game, there's not much more time for it to go. But either way, I agree with you. I certainly see value on the Rams. Let's move on to the Bills at the Titans. The Titans here are laying two and a half and the over unders at a pretty low thirty eight and a half. Obviously, there's a question mark right now around Josh Allen, who remains in the concussion protocol. You've got two strong defenses, and to be fair, I
undersold the Bills defense completely. I thought the Pats were going to go up there and be able to cover that spread of seven. They really could have lost that game pretty easily. But what's the reaction here, Titans laying two and a half over under at thirty eight and a half.
Yeah.
I like the Titans last week because I didn't think the type of offense that Atlanta I was bringing to the table you know, if you know, presuming that they could find a way to take the deep ball away from Julio and Ridley, then I thought that the Titans defense was going to be a good matchup for the Falcons, and I like the Titans last week. I don't think
the same is true at all for Buffalo. If Josh Allen's back, right, I do think that you know, John Brown basically is a specialist in the deep ball, and you know, Malcolm Butler is just completely capable of being torched in any spot. I don't want to get to, you know, bogged down on rating a team based on one offensive matchup. I do really think that the biggest advantage for this game, of any side is going to
be the Bills defense against this Titans offense. You know, the Falcons defense was missing a ton of characters last week. They were able to get shredded and give up, you know, get some big plays against that Atlanta defense. I do not think that will be the case against Buffalo. Buffalo specializes in preventing such big plays. So at the end of the day, I do you think Buffalo is at the advantage here? And I like them in the.
Spot out of curiosity does the fact that Allen is in the concussion protocol, what do you do with that as a better Do you just wait and hold on, do you try to get in on it now and hope for the best, or how do you approach that well?
I think I want to watch that game one more time because Matt Barkley to me looked way more competent than I ever saw him or thought of him before. And I think the same was true in the preseason when I saw Barkley operate this offense. So I really want to get a good look at how that offense
looks with him. There could be some value. Here's what I'm saying is if the public doesn't think he's, you know, ready for prime time, ready to step in there and do the job, I really think the Bills would win this game on defense anyway, So as long as he's able to manage the game, I would still not be shying away from Buffalo, just purely on the presence of
Matt Barkley. I don't think Josh Allen's that great of a quarterback either, so I don't know if the jump is as big as people would expect from Barkley to Allen.
Maybe that's a hot take, but that's just how.
I feel now. I mean, look from a fantasy perspective. You and I both do fantasy work. Of course, Allan is great because he provides you know, value with his rushing ability. But he is one of the least accurate passers in the NFL. There's no doubt about that. And when Barkley stepped in, yeah, he looked better overall than
Alan did. Really in that game, he moved the ball relatively well considering he was thrown into the Lions then there against the Pats, But I agree, I don't expect it to have too much of an impact on the spread here, even though quarterbacks can Barkley again, with how he looked. You mentioned the preseason as well, and he looked fine against New England, I'm not sure it would have that big of an impact. Let's move on here
to the Falcons at the Texans. The Texans here are laying four and a half and the over under his forty nine, two teams coming off really bad losses. The Falcons look kind of in disarray. The defense is really compromised without Ken O'Neil in there. How are you feeling about this when Texans laying four and a half at home over under forty nine.
Yeah, I mean the total is definitely the thing I'd be looking at first here. I mean, I'm not so sure that I think the Falcons are that good of a team. They're one in three and they're just really really brutal on defense, and the Texans offense is probably capable of getting their share of the points in this game. The question is whether the Falcons can put up the points on the Texans, and that's why be looking at
the It's a pretty good line at forty nine. I'm not excited to get the over on this, but I think if I was leading in anything right now, would be you know, can the Falcons get the job done against his Texans defense? And then then I would be interested, of course in the over.
Yeah. I mean the Texans have been a little disappointing on offense, at least to me. I mean, I know, you know, the problems with the offensive line. Watson's holding the ball for way too long, so they aren't putting up the points. And you know, they've played some tough defenses here. They played the Jaguars, of course, where they weren't able to do much they played the Panthers, and the Panthers have a solid defense mostly against the pass, less against the run, which is sort of, you know,
really goes against what the Texans can do. They don't run the ball that well with Hide and Duke Johnson. It's fine, but it's not their strength over here. Yeah, I didn't have a strong lean when I first looked at this game. I mean, forty nine, it's around kind of where I expected to be in the four and a half is fine, but really I'm wondering whether the Falcons here are gonna kind of start really really tailing off, because I think they just cannot get it going. Yesterday,
they you know, barely anything to Julio Jones. Ridley has basically been phased out at this point. Austin Hooper is having a great year, but they're really not going to be able to sustain an offensive philosophy dumping the ball off to Demonta Freeman constantly and going through Austin Hooper. So for me, I'm not quite as confident this. I really want to go back and watch yesterday's game, but it's something where I don't have a strong lean on
it as of yet. But it has not moved as far as I can tell from the look aheadline, so I think this is probably in the end four and a half and over under forty nine is basically around where it's going to get up, give or take half a point. Let's move on here to a divisional matchup Ravens at the Steelers. The Ravens are currently minus four and the over under is at forty two and a half.
Now we're recording this before the Monday night game, so obviously, if there are any significant developments on the Steelers side of the ball, the line could move. Two teams who know each other really well. They always battle out close. How are you feeling about this one? Ravens minus four at Pittsburgh.
Yeah, the Pittsburgh defense is a pretty good unit. But I still think that if we're talking about, you know, just a four point favorite for the Ravens, I think that overall there's still a much better team. If their defensive health improves at all, I would really like them in the spot at minus four. I certainly don't think that Pittsburgh under Mason Rudolph's command is necessarily a strong team to.
Be betting right now.
I don't know what they are, yet I don't really have a strong take on whether or not they can cover a spread versus a team like the Ravens. But I think the Ravens underperformed this week, and I think that they might have otherwise been bigger favorites here. So minus four is something I would possibly be looking at here.
I'm really surprised that the spread isn't higher. I mean, you know, because it's not as if it came down when the Ravens just got their butts kicked by the Browns. I mean, it was kind of I think the look headline was relatively where it was. I think, if anything, it leaned a little bit closer towards the Ravens here. For me, I don't know. My initial gut on this is that there's going to be money that comes in on the Ravens that's going to push it a little
bit higher and the over under. Neither one of these teams has a defense that is particularly good at this point. I mean, the Ravens, as you mentioned, are banged up, but you knew coming in that their defense was not going to be as strong as it has been in previous years, and I think that's showing itself to be true right now. Now. Whether or not the Steelers are able to move the ball against them, there's a whole
nother question, but that's more about the Steelers offense. I think Mason Rudolph, who has not looked good, will get better as he gets more comfortable playing in the NFL. But for me, both the numbers stood out to me. At the Ravens laying four seemed light, and I felt like the over under at forty two and a half also seemed light. Out of curiosity, do you have any feel on that over under? Is that about right where you think it should be?
I mean, that's about right.
Like I said, the defense for the Steelers is a pretty good unit, so I would not be expecting a ton of scoring in this game. That seems right to me. You know, It's worth noting that like this is going to be a very public side. Looks like tons of money rolling in on the Ravens already as a percentage, and the number of bets as well.
So I'm just do you draw conclusions from that out of curiosity this early on in the week, because I'm.
Not really I mean, I'm just pointing out that that's the trend is that the public side is probably going to end up being the Ravens side unless this line moves significantly. And I don't know, I just I don't love just like completely getting a lot of money on bets that are just like purely public that the books are knowing that they're going to need for their particular week. I mean, at the end of the day, that's just it doesn't seem like good process right to be that
far against the book. I mean, the book definitely knows what they're getting into here.
Absolutely, numbers like this scare me a little bit when I have a very strong feeling on it, because I feel like, exactly as you said, this strikes me as a number that I think that John Q. Public is going to look at it, and maybe the books are banking on the fact that the Ravens look so terrible against the Browns that they're not going to get all that much money. I don't really think that's necessarily going
to be the case. I think a team like the Ravens, given how they performed early on and they lost a close game to the Chiefs, I think the public is still going to be on them. So when I see these numbers. They strike me as it's likely that the number of bets and you know, we'll see about the money,
because that's more about the sharp betters. But the number of bets is going to be wrongly in favor of the Ravens, which makes me a little worried because that's how I initially lean, and you really don't lose money when you fade the public. So it is something that I think this line is certainly capable of moving, depending on how the money comes in. Let's move on here to the Patriots at the Redskins. The Patriots are currently laying fifteen and a half. Now, this was fourteen and
a half when I checked yesterday. The over under is forty four and a half. Last I saw Jay Gruden decline to name a starter. If he does name Haskins, I would assume the spread it would probably jump in favor of the Patriots by maybe a point or something like that. And even though case Keenum did not look all that good. So Patriots on the road here at the Redskins laying fifteen and a half with a total of forty four and a half. How do you feel about that?
Do you think the Patriots will score forty four points or forty five points, because I just have no confidence whatsoever in the Washington offense in the spot. Just just give me the under here until I can convince myself the Patriots are going to score more than whatever whatever the total is, because I really think shutout is well within the range of outcomes here for watching it.
That will happen.
But I mean, will they score ten points? I would not bet the over on ten I don't think. I really think that this defense is very good and the Washington offense is very bad.
Yeah, don't sell it short. A shutout could legitimately happen here. I mean, especially if it's Haskins throwing themall. I mean, look, they were they allowed their first you know, offensive touchdown against the Bills, but they held them in check entirely. They faced a run of really bad opponents, Steelers perhaps being the exception in opening week. But that defense is
one hundred percent legitimate. So, I mean, honestly, out of curiosity, if you are analyzing the game that way, which I think it's one hundred percent correct, what's wrong with the Pats laying fifteen and a half? I mean, the Pats are going to score you know, they had a tough Bills team and they scored sixteen and they looked terrible. I mean, do you think they're gonna probably wind up coming up putting up above twenty above, you know, twenty four or something like that here.
Boy, you know, I just don't. I don't like to get involved with Patriots long. I don't know what it is about these Patriot lines when you're talking about like because in theory, when you see an NFL team getting two touchdowns, you're not supposed to like that.
I don't think that's what I was saying with the Dolphins where I don't. I never like it, and so I'm always like, man, there's value here in the Dolphins, and that's why I meant like, I cannot take them. Look, Washington, they're not anywhere close to that at this point. But if they throw Haskins into there, and you know, the
problem was Jay grun I think did this correctly. Okay, he did not throw Haskins into that Monday night game against the Bears, right because he would have gotten absolutely destroyed. Keenan was terrible in this game against the Giants. The Giants have a terrible defense. They threw them out there like, Okay, this is it. It's a weak defense, and he was awful.
I mean that the Redskins really there was no Terry McLaurin, to be fair, but the Redskins could be approaching not Dolphin level, because I think Dolphins level is really bad, but they could be a team that you're gonna be seeing these spreads that are going to be pushing sixteen seventeen. And I agree, I don't really like to get involved in it, although I'll be honest, this one piques my interest a little bit. I think it's gonna rise, by
the way. I think whatever happens, I think when this closes, it is going to be more like sixteen and a half or something like that. But we'll have to see. But you're saying, essentially you like the total at least on an initial glance, right, because you think essentially that Washington's going to have trouble scoring. And I think you're putting it probably on the Patriots, let's say, to be held under you know, thirty five or something like that, right.
Yeah, And you know I would consider the total if I could get it, like without it rising substantially. And I was and I knew for sure Haskins was a QBA. Can I tell you a secret that I don't think anyone needs to know just yet, But I think I think Dwayne Haskins might not be good. No, like I think now after watching preseason and watching that performance last week, like the you know, the whispers are starting in my head, like this guy doesn't look that good.
Okay, look, everybody, okay, you have now heard it here first. Okay from Chris Jamino. You have heard it here. It's possible that Dwayne Haskins is not good. Okay, So look, don't go spreading it around because it's kind of a secret and he told you that in confidence, but it is possible that it could be true. Yeah, it's really funny the way the season has unfolded with Daniel Jones. You know, looking he didn't look great in this past game, but looking so much better given all the flak that
the Giants got for him. So yes, if Haskins is named the starter, I'll be all over whatever it is in favor of the Patriots. But my guess is he's gonna go with Keenum here just to protect him, since Haskins looked completely completely unprepared to go up against an NFL team. Before we move on, I do want to tell everyone about the sponsor of today's show, bet MGM. Now you know about bet mgm already, and in particular the bet mgm Sports app, because it's the easiest and
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problem called one eight hundred ambler. All right, Chris, let's move on to our next game here, Cardinals at the Bengals. Now again, this is something where we have not yet seen the Bengals on Monday night, So this could move depending on a variety of factors. But as of right now, it's the Bengals are laying four and a half points and the over under is at forty eight and a half. How do you feel about that?
Yeah, I think there could be some points scored tonight
here in this game with the Steelers. I don't necessarily think all that or even most of that's going to come from the Bengals side, but I do think that shootouts tend to happen when there's two bad defenses facing offenses that can operate with efficiency, especially if there's a lot of play volume, and these are two new offenses that really want to get a lot of plays off, really want to be more involved in the past game right now, the opponents that the Cardinals and Bengals have
faced have not maybe exposed the way that they both want to play when they're operating at their most efficient, And I do think that the over has a good chance of hitting here if in fact, these defenses are as bad as I think they are. Both teams in the bottom ten of positive play percentage per Sports Info Solutions. The Cardinals were eleventh before yesterday's game. I can't imagine
they improved after that performance last week. So I'm expecting the offenses to be more efficient than they've been to start this season. And I would really be looking at the over here in this spot when I look at the way this shakes out, don't don't. I can't say I'm like loving it, but I do like it a little bit.
No, I totally agree with you the over if anything stuck out to me on this one. I think both offenses are going to be able to move the ball. I mean, you know, Murray and the Arizona offense was not good against Seattle. I fully admit that, and Seattle doesn't have a great defense in my opinion, so it was a little bit of a negative factor. But certainly this is going to be against a Bengals team on
a short week both offenses. I like what Zach Taylor has done with the Bengals offense and against Arizona you don't have to have a world beating offense to be able to put up a lot of points. And I think in the end, the Cardinals are probably going to come out They're going to do what they usually do, which is script the first couple of drives for Murray, and I think they're probably going to be able to put up points, So I agree early lean here would be over on the forty eight and a half. The
Bengals laying four and a half. I don't really have a good feel for at this point. Even assuming nothing happens that strikes me as around the right number, I think it's gonna basically stay there. I don't think the sharps will necessarily favor one side or the other, so I think that's probably where we'll end up. Let's move on to the Jaguars at the Panthers. The Panthers here are laying three and a half and the over unders at forty one. Kyle Allen will start again. Not sure
if we're gonna see Jalen Ramsey on the field. You know he missed this one with his back injury, but he's also said he's not sure whether or not he's gonna play another game for the Jaguars. So how about here, Panthers at home laying three and a half with an over under at forty one.
Yeah, I think if I was going to take a side on the total here, it would probably be on the underdog Jaguars against the Panthers. I actually don't have a lot of respect for what the Panthers are doing so far. I think they still need to prove it to me as far as what they can do as
a team defensively. On offense, certainly they've got plenty of plenty of capability, but this would be a matchup where, you know, the Jaguars might have the tools to put a damper on Christian McCaffrey and maybe not allow him to just run completely wild. You know, you know, watching Joe Flacco move the ball a little bit wasn't that encouraging.
And we've seen some negative signs from the Jaguars defense too, So I'm not saying that there's some end all be all type of a defensive unit here, But I you know, I don't really love either one of these sides. It's a pretty good line, but if I was going to lean one way, it would be towards the Jaguars because I, again, I don't have a lot of trust in what the Panthers are doing right now.
Yeah, I don't really feel great about the spread. I mean, I want to look at Gardner Minchew and see how he actually came out because I know he's limping a little bit at the end of that game. It strikes me about right. For me, the total again is where I look a little bit. And you mentioned it. If you were going one way or the other, you probably might be looking at the other. That's where I'm looking at it, because I really I like Kyle Allen as
more of a game manager. But the guy who threw four touchdown passes or whatever against the Cardinals, that's not what he is. Okay, He's going to be able to keep your team in the game. He's more accurate than Cam Newton was when you know he was being bothered by his foot or shoulder or whatever. In the end that it turned out to be and that's fine. But I don't see this as an explode of offense at all.
And the Jaguars still have a relatively strong defense. I know Joe Flacco, as you mentioned, was able to move the ball pretty well, especially at the end, and on the other side of the ball. Look the Jaguars. You know, Minshew's got a little magic going. But the Panthers are
tough against the pass. They really are. They're able to get to the quarterback a little bit, but they've got strong cornerbacks, especially Bradberry, they're a little vulnerable against the run, and so I think the Jaguars plan of attack, assuming that Leonard Fournett can carry the load once again, would be to probably control the game on the ground, which
leads me to a low scoring thing. And with the Panthers, I mean, I had the one bet that I kind of nailed and had in really early this past week was the under on the Panthers game because I think that's how they really are going to play these games. They're going to play these tight, low scoring games and try to win it out with their defense and with managing it. So that's really how I would see that.
The total again not high, it's only for to one, but I think in the end, if I lean one way, it would probably be on the under in this game. Bucks at Saints would be next game. Now, this has been bouncing back and forth a little bit. The Saints right now are laying four and a half points at home to the Bucks. It was when I checked last night four and a half. I checked this morning it was five and a half. I checked right before we came on, and it's back to four and a half.
The over under is at forty eight. Both teams are coming off really really big time wins, the Saints relying on their defense to beat the Cowboys, the Bucks lighting it up against the Rams. As we talked about earlier, what's your thoughts on this one?
Give me the Saints.
I do not have faith that what we saw last week from Tampa Bay is something that you can expect with consistency. Jameis Winston has proven to be an inefficient quarterback and someone who doesn't even operate that well when
the pockets clean. So if you know the Saints can do anything close to what they did against Dallas last night defensively, I mean just you know, I would I would easily easily easily shy away from thinking that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or anywhere close to as good of a team as what the Saints can be, you know, even without Drew Brees right, like we've seen them come through with the game plan that's you know, really try to slow down these games and really turn it into
you know, more of a grinded out type of a situation. And I don't think the Tampa Bay Buccaneers farewell in that scenario at all, especially not on the road. So I'm you know, my you know, to spread. If I can get three points, I would like that the best. If I can get better than that, even better, But you know otherwise, I'm just not like in love with Tampa Bay at all, And I would.
Like the Saints for almost the same exact reasons. I really like the under here, okay, because I think the way you describe this is exactly right. I mean, James Winston's a little doctor Jackal and mister Hyde, right. I mean, you do not know how this team is gonna come out necessarily, and the Saints, as they showed yesterday, have a really really strong defense. It's going to be a divisional game, which means they're going to get up for it.
And I don't expect the Bucks to be able to put up a ton of points in this game for basically exactly the reasons that you said. At the same time, I don't think these Saints are built to do that either. I mean, Bridgewater is basically out there to manage the games, to rely on the defense, and to win kind of close, close, you know, hard fought in the trenches type of game. So in the end, I also favor the Saints. I'm not sure I love it at four and a half. It's if you can get it closer. I think I
would lean that way too. I do think the Saints are going to win, but the total for me because of that, because I think they're going to rely so much on their defense. At forty eight, I like the under there for basically the reasons that you described. Let's move on to Jets at Eagles. The Eagles are currently laying fourteen. It was at thirteen and a half, so it's moved a tiny bit since I checked early this morning,
and the over under is at forty four and a half. Now, this sounds like Sam Darnold is probably not going to play in this game. He's progressing in the right direction. I think he's practicing either with no contact or something, but it looks a little bit more likely that he's going to be out this week. So how do you feel right now at Eagles laying fourteen in the over under at forty four and a half.
Well, I certainly don't like the Jets.
If Luke Falk's going to be involved here, I do you know, I think the line is probably about fair If that's the case, and that's so it looks like a Luke Falk line right now. But even so, like I'm like, I'm not interested in taking the Jets here, and I'm not interested in taking a team laying two touchdowns either, So I'm pretty much off this spread right
now as it stands. I think the under would be the more interesting side here if you think the Jets defense is fairly you know, fairly capable of limiting what the Eagles can do on offense. I'm not one hundred percent sure of that, So I don't really love either side of this. It would be it would be the under if I had to take one gun to my head, but I just don't. I just don't really like this
spot at all. I'm not really confident in who the Eagles are just yet as an offensive team, you know, Are they a team that can you know, light up a good defense for a bunch of points to the point where an over would hit. I'm not really confident of that at the moment. So that's where I would say the under is my favorite part of this game.
Yeah, I basically agree with everything that you've laid out. I do think that if Donald were to play, although given the fact that he's not really where he needs to be, maybe I wouldn't. But I was thinking if Donald was totally cleared and he had a full week of practice and ready to go, I might the Jets in the spot because I do think that the Jets have a capable offense once you put Donald under center, and their defense CJ. Moseley has had an extra week
to rest, so they're they're gonna end. Quinnin Williams will be back as well, so the defense is going to be, you know, much stronger than it looked the past couple of games. But if Lukewalk is out there, all bets are off. I mean, you know, you don't want to take a team laying fourteen points, but there's no way, as basically you aptly put it, there's just no way you can back Lukewalk no matter basically what he's getting
the total. I agree, seems like the under would probably be the spot to go if you had to pick a choice, because I think Falk has such trouble moving the ball and you don't expect the Eagles to, you know, be able to put up thirty or anything like that. But as a general feeling, on this one, given that Donald is probably out, it's a stay away game for both of us, So I'm glad we're in agreement on that one. Bears at Raiders technically, but they are in London,
so it's more like a neutral field. The Bears here are laying four and a half. The over under is at forty. Now this sounds like Mitchell Trubisky is almost certainly going to be out this week. I'm not sure if that's necessarily a downgrade to Chase Daniel. He looked pretty competent in their win over the Vikings. The Raiders are coming off an uber impressive win over the Cult, So in London, Bears lank four and a half over under at forty. How do you feel, man?
I was my favorite bet of the week last week was the Raiders plus seven. I ended up making a bunch of money on that. Of course lost a bunch of other bets, But you know, at the end of the day, the Raiders take was a great take, and I really just felt like that was more because of what the Colts defense wasn't going to do in that game. I cannot say the same thing for the Bears defense
in this spot. If Trubisky was there. I do think, unfortunately, that he is a slight upgrade at the quarterback position versus what you've gotten Chas Daniel. I realized Chase Daniel played well last week, but I've just seen a much larger sample size of him completely being inept on offense. And you know, it's overseas, so I don't really know
what to expect from that point of view. But at the end of the day, when it's all said and done, I do not think the Raiders are going to be able to score in this spot, and that's where I think I might lean towards the under forty two. If you can get forty two, that'd be great. I think it was like you have forty right now. I don't think I would be as excited at that number, but I definitely don't think the Raiders are going to score.
So it's either the Bears if you think they can clear that minus four and a half, or the under. But I'm I'm certainly not wanting anything to do with the Raiders here in this spot.
Yeah, I'm not scared off of the forty I mean, I get it. I wish it wasn't dropping like it was but right now at forty, I still lean towards the Bears. I completely agree, especially especially with the Raiders coming off such a big win. I believe they're coming off two road games, if I'm not mistaken, so this counts as their home game in London, and it's not
a home game. They're basically another road game, and it's technically going to I don't even know what the time zone technically, I guess it's going to be, so I'm not even going to say that, but they're certainly not going to be on their usual schedule. I think it's going to be a really, really difficult thing to get up for this game. After their giant win. It can see a huge letdown when you saw what the Bears
defense was able to do to that Vikings offense. I get it the Vikings have trouble passing the ball, but even just to totally stifle Dalvin Cook, I agree. I do not see the Raiders being able to put up many points, and with Chase Daniel, I don't necessarily see the Bears being able to put up a lot of points. So I still like the over under at forty. I'm totally with you. It was at even forty one, I felt like that was a much better number, But at forty I still lean that way, and with the spread
four and a half. If I had to go one way or another, I'd lean the Bears. But again not not overly confident in it. But you and I are viewing this game the exact same way. We do not expect much of a showing.
Yeah, the ender is definitely the sharper side. I mean not you talked me into it. The under let's do what under forty?
All right? Under forty. Let's hope it doesn't drop further than that. But if not, yeah, I'm totally good with it. I can't see the Raiders really putting up much of anything. Now, before we finish up with our last few games, I do want tomind everyone about our September contests where we're giving away a signed Alvin Mari helmet. Now, although this is our September contest, we're actually extending this one a couple of weeks, so you can go hook and get
your reviews in now. To be entered, all you need to do is leave a review for the show on iTunes or Stitcher and send a screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com. It takes two seconds to do and you are automatically entered into this and all future contests. So go for it, all right, Let's move on here to Vikings at Giants. The Vikings here are currently laying five and a half with the over under at forty five and a half. How do you feel about that?
Well, if the Giants are beating teams like the Redskins and the Buccaneers, color me fully unimpressed. And color me unimpressed by the idea that the Vikings couldn't pass on the Bears right because they weren't able to protect their quarterback and otherwise, I feel like the passing offense has upside comparatively, and that's where the Giants absolutely stink. They've got roasted by a number of teams in the passing
games to start this season. And not to mention the fact that Dalvin Cook is a beast, one of the best in the league. I don't think the Giants are going to be able to slow him down either. If we're talking about a line of five and a half, that's basically you might as well be a touchdown. I'm still thinking the Vikings can clear that, so I actually like the Vikings minus five and a half. I think that they're going to crush.
My early lean is, this is my favorite bet on the slate for sure. I think this is going to I think I feel bad for the Giants here. I think the Vikings are going to be mad. I think they are going to come out and they are going to pound Daniel Jones, who again, you know, the shine is off a little bit. He did not look great at all against the Redskins. You know, I know they were able to move the ball with Wayne Gollman, but he really, you know, he was not quite that impressive.
You've got an angry Vikings team. I think they're going to put up a huge defensive performance. I think Cook is going to be able to do whatever Hee wants. I think they are going to use this game as a get right game for the passing game. You've already got Adam Thielen basically calling out the coaching sab saying we need to throw the ball. It's gonna be a little bit of a squeaky wheel type game. So my early lean on this is, Oh, I'm all over the Vikings. At it was at five I got in on it
when it was five. It's at five and a half. Now, that's fine. I'd do it up to a touchdown at this point, and frankly, if it got to a touchdown, I don't even know. But again, this is one that makes me a little nervous just because you just look at the line, right your first instinct and it's we have the exact same instinct, right, So chance we're both well informed guys, But chances are the John Q public is going to look at that line and they're also
going to want the Viking. So it's it's a little surprising to me when I see a line that looks like it's going to entice the public to go one way, you know, because that suggests that that's what they want. But in the end, Vikings saying five and a half is something that I feel uber comfortable with.
At the moment, this line will go up, and you just bet it now, because if you don't, then you're not going to get the number that you want here. You know, if you can get you a little bit of extra value right now, I agree with you that, like, yeah, maybe there's a little bit of hesitation because the line looks so soft, but maybe that's just true, maybe just pound because it's soft.
Yeah, And again being on the public side, which I'm sure this is going to be, it's not always a bad thing. I mean, I remember the Rams against the Browns on Monday Night Football, which I saw the line at three and I was all over it. I mean right from the get go, and I knew it was
going to be overwhelmingly public. But I couldn't get away from it because it didn't really matter, because that line just seemed way too small given what it was, and it was in the end, although it obviously could have been much closer at the end if the play calling had been a little different. But it's not. You don't have to run away from public bets. It just makes
you a little nervous. But this one, I think you and I are both on the same side where we're like, I don't really care what the public's doing because we're all good with it. At the current spread, let's move on to the Broncos at the Chargers. The Chargers here are currently laying six and a half and the over under is at forty three and a half. That struck
me both of those numbers as about right. I know, Bradley Chubb now is out for the season, so that takes a little bit of the shine off the Broncos defense. But how do you feel about that Broncos at the Chargers. Chargers laying six and a half over under at forty three and a half, I.
Don't really feel comfortable betting the Chargers, you know, giving that many points right now. I mean I have trouble betting the Broncos too, But like the Chargers just seem every single year to show up and keep things closer than they should be, you know, giveaway spots that they
shouldn't give away. Like I'm almost surprised they covered against the Dolphins last week because you know, the way that game started, it looked like it was going to be yet another Chargers situation where they underwhelmed in a spot they're supposed to come in and do something. Now that being said, they are in a quote unquote home game against the team that's owned four and giving up last
second touchdown drives to a rookie. So when when I added all the factors together, is as little confident as I have in the Chargers, it would be towards the side of them controlling this game. And really having their way against the Broncos more so than not. But I'm not really in love with it.
I've got no feel for this game because what you said about the Chargers is exactly right. So I first kind of look at this game and I'm like, you know what, this is a spot where the Chargers just lay an egg because this is what they do every single year. And the problem is, look, I like the Broncos this week laying three did the Jags, and you know, in the end, they just kind of threw up all over themselves, and I don't really have confidence and their ability to go up there and win this game or
even necessarily keep it close. I think this is kind of a backbreaking loss for them in kind of what was their quote unquote last ditch effort to save their season even though they weren't going to go anywhere. But now they're owned four. So in the end, I basically have reasons on both sides of the ball to not like this line at all, like to not go one
way or the other. So it is a game for me again, seems about right where the numbers are, and it's something where I don't really have a lean one way or another because I don't trust either team, So I think you and I will both just stay away from it and we'll both live to fight another day. Let's move on to the Packers at the Cowboys. A really interesting game here. The Cowboys here are laying three and a half. Now, it was four and a half when I checked on Sunday night before that Cowboys game
wrapped up. I don't know whether or not there was money that came in or whether or not the books moved generally because of how the Cowboys looked in that game. But again, Packers at Cowboys, Cowboys are laying three and a half and the over under is at forty seven and a half. How do you feel there?
I'm a little scared of both sides of this bet because I would generally like to favor the Cowboys at home. I would generally like to favor the under looking at how these two defenses have performed. But then you know, I'd be taking the under against two efficient quarterbacks, and that's not really how I want to live my life. So I won't live it that way, and I probably won't make that bet. So I'm wish you watch you here.
I don't have a strong position, and I'm supposed to have a position on this, but you know, under forty seven and a half, I mean that could easily see situations where that goes over. Both these guys can completely come out firing, you know, deep touchdowns, accurate passes to great receivers. There's no real way for me to fall in love with the total side of this game. And then of course the spread. I mean we're talking about
two three and one teams. I think it's a coin flip and this is this is like the exact kind of bet that I just don't want anything to do with.
Yeah, first of all, you said, you know you should have a position or something like that. You don't have to have a position, man, I mean part of the time we look at stuff and that's exactly where it is. We don't like either side because the number is about where it needs to be, and I agree with you. I think on the total, I lean a little bit towards the under here. And the reason is, really, look,
both these teams have pretty solid defenses. The Packers in particular have a really really good pass defense, but they get gashed by the run. So I think you're gonna see a lot of Ezekiel Elliott here, and when you do that, I think it's going to be a little bit more of a control the clock type of game. I think they're going to lean on the run pretty heavily. I don't see Rogers being able to do a crazy amount here, So if I leaned anywhere, I kind of
a little bit leaning towards the under not overwhelmingly. It's not one of my favorite bets or anything like that, even at this point, but with the spread in particular, I don't feel it. Man. I don't have a good sense of what the Packers are doing. I mean, they come out and they always look great on offense, and then they just don't score at all in the second half, So there wouldn't be a time where I would feel
really comfortable with them. At the same time, they basically have a mini by here because of the fact that they played the Thursday night game and the Cowboys I have a little bit of a short week because they played on Sunday night. So in the end, it's something where if I had to choose a side, I think I would lean towards the Packers because I see this being as a really close game. So as long as
that spread stays above the key number of three. I probably lean there, and I'd probably lean a little bit towards the under forty seven and a half, but not overwhelmingly. So let's move on to the Colts at the Chiefs Here, the Chiefs now are laying ten and a half. It was nine and a half when I first checked, and the over under at a pretty hefty fifty seven. You've got injuries on the Colts side of the ball. You've got Ty Hilton may or may not be able to
suit up with that quad injury. You still got Mac who had a little bit banged up his ankle, was in and out of that game yesterday. It's unclear if Darius Leonard is gonna be able to play. So how do you feel here, Chiefs at home in primetime Sunday night? Ten and a half over under a fifty seven?
Boy, I like that under a little bit.
If the Colts are going to be missing Hilton again, those receives is just weren't able to get the job done against the Raiders no less, you know, like Deon Kane. Five targets no catches I think was the number I saw. I don't know if he ended up getting win late in that game. But man, it just looks bad out there for the wide receivers on the Colts. And you know, you can't be expected for Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle to completely, you know, shred any kind of a defense level.
And the Chiefs who are going to probably be playing with the lead so they'll be able to pin their ears back a little bit. I mean, the Cols offensive line is very good, so they have that working in their favor. But I just, you know, I can't see the Chiefs getting enough points to get over this total.
I mean, the Colts, when they're operating efficiently on defense, they're a little bit tougher to get big plays on Saying that Patrick Mahomes can't get a big play on a team is like writing your own death certificate as far as the bets concerned. But if you asked me to take a side here on a Monday, which I am want to do right now, I'm taking the under because I think that's just a little bit too high for what the Colts can do on offense.
Yeah, I don't know the number is so high. I just don't have a feel for it. I get exactly what you're saying the Chiefs at home in prime time, I think are going to put up a ton of points here, and whether or not, you know, the sort of like they did in this past game against the Raiders, whether or not the Colts can put up you know, points in garbage time, would make me a little iffy on the total. This is just not a game I
want to go near. If anything, I would lean towards the under, because I do think that there's value in that number. But it would scare the bejeebas out of me because I just could see this sort of being a game where like, hey, it's looking good here, we're looking fine, and then just everybody going crazy and the ten and a half, I don't know, I really don't. I mean, with the injuries, I don't know if Hilton's going to be back, but it doesn't seem like that,
and they're really again you talked about it. The problem is that they don't even have capable number twos or number three's who can kind of step in. It's mostly the tight ends and eric Gie Brown is showing that he was who we thought he was with the drops. He did score a touchdown yesterday, but still not enough to make me excited about them. So this is a
game where I don't have a great feel for. But if I did go anywhere, it would probably be the under But I do I don't feel and I know you're not coming on strong on it, but I don't even lean in it as much as you do. I just feel like there's a game where as of right now, I really really don't want to go near for me.
Don't get me wrong.
I mean I lean the under here, but like you know, Patrick Mahomes, I mean, if you're I couldn't even completely rule out the idea of them getting to fifty seven on their own.
Why that's not even a joke, right.
I mean that, I mean, of course it's a completely complete outliers situation. But you know, the the bottom line is that you making under bets against Patrick Mahomes, especially if you know, all things being equal, the Coles offense, if it's operating the way it's supposed to operate, even with Brissette, can put up some points and the Chiefs defense is nothing to be scared of. So you know, it's this is definitely not one of my favorite spots.
All right, So you're what you're basically saying is you're betting your mortgage on the under.
Absolutely not got it. I mean, there is no.
Way everybody heard it. Everybody heard it. Don't worry about it. He's got it, mortgage on the under. He's all in. Okay, great, Let's move on to our last game, the Monday night football game, Browns at the forty nine Ers. Forty nine ers here are currently laying three and a half and the over under is at forty eight and a half. A really nice bounce back game here for the Browns to beat the Ravens. They looked pretty good. They still have injuries in their secondary Jarvis Landry Is and the
concussion protocol. But the forty nine ers are coming off a bye here and are at home. So forty nine Ers leanth three and a half over under at forty eight and a half. How do you feel We.
Haven't seen the forty nine ers in some time, and suddenly we think that they're some kind of a fantastic team, and they've played well to start this season. But I think the Browns underplayed their potential in the first couple of weeks here we saw what they're capable of doing last week. I'm not saying they're going to go roll up forty on the forty nine ers here in this spot. But give me the Browns plus three and a half. I think that they are probably close to as good
as we thought they were. They just had a couple of bad games.
Yeah, I mean it's I don't really disagree with that. When it was at three when I first checked, I didn't like it as much when it got past the key number. Yeah, I lean Browns. I don't feel great about it. And you know, teams coming off buys always give me, you know, make me a little scared because they, you know, especially with a guy like Shanahan who can have plenty of time to dream up creative plays and
stuff like that, and their defense. You know, the thing is, I don't know if I'm ready to make any conclusions about the forty nine ers defense because they've looked strong, but I really don't know if they actually are strong. So this could be something where the Browns have gotten right now with this game, because they they're obviously much more talented and should be better than they had looked
prior to this past week. So this could be a game where they're going But you know, Monday Night cross Country. I'm a little iffy on it, but as of right now, I agree that as long as we're past the key number of three at worth three and a half, I do lean as well towards the Browns. So I like that we're in agreement there. Well, that is going to do it for today's show, Chris, it was great having you on. Please remind everyone where they can find more of you and your work.
Yeah, you're gonna want to check us out if you're playing dfs over at rodo grinders dot com. All the tools that you're going to need to set competitive and potentially week winning lineups. I think we've had a couple of guys get to the tippy top of the leaderboards already this season. We'd like you to come and join them. Of course, if you want to play some prop bets, we've got some tools on rotor Grinders to do that
based on our player projections. And of course, if you are into betting the way that I suspect you are. If you're listening to this podcast, you want to check us out on the sharp Side app as part of the Better Collective Network. I think you can get some good information and participate in our gamification of being a betting leader amongst your peers. We were trying to turn it into the betting community over there, so go ahead and check us out on sharpside.
Awesome. Well, thanks again for coming on and I hope we can do it again during the season.
Sounds great. Thanks for having me all.
Right, Thanks again to the sponsor of today's show, bet MGM. Remember to download the bet mgm Sports app and use the promo code Harris to get your risk free first waiter of up to five hundred dollars, and don't forget to rate and review the podcast and send a screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com for your chance to win a signed Alvin Kamara helmet. We'll be back later this week giving some of our best bets for Week five. I'll talk to you that