Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast. I'm your host, Thomas Boyola, and it is time for Week five of the NFL season. So we're gonna be talking about the slate picking out our favorite games today, and to help us do that, of course, as always, the Oracle himself, Matt Friedman joins us, and today we are joined by a very special guest. Ben Brown, head of predictive Analysis at PFF, joins the show. Ben, thank you so much for coming on today. How are you doing.
I'm doing well, guys. You know I enjoy you know, the Betting Pros Content podcast. I definitely appreciate you guys having me on to chat up a little sports.
Betting in action for week five. So appreciate you guys having me have here.
I'm excited. We're gonna have plenty of games to get to here. We're gonna have some interesting disagreements, some interesting agreements, and some good takes. But first I want to talk to you a little bit about what it is that you do. What is the day in the life of someone running predictive analysis here, especially for a group like PFF.
Yeah, it is uh. I would say every single day is different of course, we have you know, off season and in season I do think probably changes you know, dramatically for you guys as well. But a lot of like our research type projects tools that we're trying to build, everything else kind of happens in the off season and then we basically you know, kind of try and keep the lights on. So like every Monday morning, I'll wake up.
We have like this what we call like a metrics metrics package, which essentially takes all of PFF data and kind of MUSHes it together and does a lot of our output top down models that we kind of use in a lot of our prediction based models, so things like you know PFF Green Line, NCA green Line or player Props tool. We all we train all those models on the on the latest data every single week and then kind of have you know, a prediction basis for when you know, bets and player props and all these
other sorts of things kind of come in. So that's you know, in season is much more a reaction. I do, you know, write some content as well, do do podcast. Then the off season is honestly the time that I enjoy and it's when we get to kind of you know, innovate, look at new you know, product offerings and those sorts of things, see what the market is, you know, directly moving like to actually try and make and improve our
processes and our predictions. So I like that we have come up with this sort of like play by play simulation that we are don't fully have one percent out there for public facing folks, but I am doing a lot of like accuracy type metrics on that through the first four weeks of the season at least, seeing like how close we are to betting market expectation, how close we are to results, and how well we're actually performing in some back testing characteristics for that particular model that
we're kind of trying to bring to the public. So it's it's it's it's changing every single day. It's very fast paced. But I, you know, I enjoy it and I love it. I you know, obviously love to be, you know, involved in the sportspinning community. I do think that it's, you know, exactly where I do and want to be and belong. So yeah, it's it's it's fun, that's for sure.
Now, we certainly do know that there are so many practical applications for sports betters who want to be able to use PFF data when it comes to building their own models out. And there was that whole Twitter kerfuffle a week or so ago where with the accusation I don't remember who it was, there was many, but someone talking about how agents will pay for PFF grades. Now, we're not going to talk about that because obviously its BS.
What I want to talk to you about with it is the fact that teams do pay for PFF information and data. What can you tell us anything about some of the ways that NFL teams are using what you guys do and using these models in their evaluation of players.
Yeah, yeah, no, I mean I'm totally fine speaking to it. It was Jason Kelly Kelsey and the Travis Kelsey podcast. It was something to do with you know, agents, you know, paying PFF in order to kind of boost the guys guys great, and you know, it's obviously like that's just not how the process would ever work or anything like that.
But we do have kind.
Of separate business units now, so I am very much on the consumer side of PFF, you know, the public bacing, front facing, the website and everything else. And then we have a soccer vertical as well, where we're kind of trying to do some of these advanced stats data gathering, you know, the play by play type data for clubs, specifically in like the Premier League Premier League, but.
Also the MLS.
And then we have like this B to B side of PFF and they are very much focused on, you know, helping NFL teams make correct decisions and basically every facet that we can possibly think of. So we have you know, a product called Ultimate, which you know is like a kind of behind the scenes way of querying and looking
up various PFF type stats. And then we also have what's called this like iq IQ component of it, which is specific to teams that does a lot of things with our PFF war metric and kind of trying to understand, you know, what is the what is the best way for teams to allocate their salary dollars correctly to what positions, what guys can kind of, you know, maybe take on similar approaches from a team building perspective. If they do lose one guy in free agency, maybe who would be
somebody that can at least fill that role? What should his and what should his actual cost be? So we do have you know, I think at least some sort
of contract with all thirty two NFL teams. A lot of the value I think we provide now is especially at the college football level with teams specifically they just don't you know, at the NCAA level, they just don't have I would say, in some of the ways the resources or there's just probably not enough data science type people to really build out, you know, the analytics components
for every single NCAA team. So I think we get you know, a lot of those teams that maybe then don't really need to have a really strong analytics staff or multiple staff people. They can just go in use you know, the PFF ultimate information use the iqmation kind of try and look at some similarities between players for things that they you know, have available and like the
transfer portal and everything else. And that is kind of you know, definitely probably I don't know if it's the bigger revenue driver for PFF, but it's definitely the spot where you know, that was kind of where we first started off as far as a focus, and it is very much the focus of you know that specific B to B side still which I have I have no
real a part in whatsoever. I actually haven't really doing my entire time at PFF, but it definitely is like an interesting component of you know, the overall structure in which we work.
Under Ben you mentioned earlier PFF green Line and you know we're going to talk about some of these week five games and and just a little bit. But my question is, when PFF green Line is wrong, is it your fault? Is it George to Herr, I'm trying to figure out who to blame. Kevin Cole, I'm sure could take some of the blame too, But what goes into to some of the projections that that you guys come up with four games?
Yeah, definitely, And it is a great question.
I think at this time I would unfortunately be the most responsible for every uh, every output that Greenline has, which you know it's it's I and I know you know you guys both face this as well, but it is I would say, like I bet, you know, a certain amount of dollars on every single you know, every
single bet that I make throughout the week. I care so much more about like our model predictions and my front facing content to do well more so than any dollar amount that I bet on the on the actual games because like it's more so like you're I don't, I don't know what's exactly word.
I'm kind of losing it. But it's like it's very much like who you are in a way, are your fix and it's it's and it's it's kind of tough to separate.
But going back to the initial question, like we very much have you know, PFF focused uh play by play type grades folded in? I know, we you know this is probably another you know, sensitive area that PFF has dealt with this year, but like you know, specifically our zero to one hundred grades and how we kind of transform that play by play data to this zero to one hundred scale every single week can can occasionally be you know a little bit often like you know, the
public perception or whatever. But we take certain ways of you know, trans adjusting for like context, adjusting for opponent strength and everything else, and we arrive at kind of a unique view of every single facet that an NFL team has. We fold that in. We fold in various like rest we rest considerations, some overall team strength type metrics as well, and then you know a few other factors coaching sort of situations, how well that coach has
been performing previously. We do a fold in you know, some continuity aspects as far as you know, is is it a new head coach, is it a new offensive coordinator? What is the offensive line situation like? And all those things.
So we kind of trying and take that all together and then you know, essentially do a prediction for how well that's going to perform against you know, the spread total and money on that, and we do you know, I'll do a little bit of regression to the market once we actually have those numbers, uh, just to kind
of you know, align everything together. But that's that's our current approach from a greenline perspective, is kind of taking that you know, top down method, uh and applying a lot of the things that we think are at least valuable and are helpful and kind of like predicting where the spread should actually be. So that's that's generally the approach we haven't you know, it's been it's been okay.
I think we do better at a college level for sure, but that is you know, one of the reasons why we are continuing to try to develop new products that are going to be you know, more successful at predicting just how these games are actually going to play out.
Now, guys, let's head on into some of the NFL games and actually predict how some of them we're going to play out for this weekend. And before we do that, I want to remind you real quick you can head on over to bet mgm right now betmgm dot com. Sign up for an account today to make your bets and your first bet if you use the promo code Betting Pros, you'll get a thousand dollars risk free bet
to get yourself started off. And Matt, if you wanted to enter the promo code Betting Pros and have a thousand dollars risk free bet, would you be using it on your first game?
Here?
And that is the Washington Commanders getting two and a half. Although really now our friends at betmgm have this game down to one and a half. You can still find it two and a half somewhere if you like the Commander's side of this. But the Titans on the road here laying one and a half points right now, what are you thinking in this one? Matt?
Yeah, it's a disgusting game. I first bet this at plus three. Shout out me. With the sweet closing line value of Titans are winning now yeah, no, I know, I know guarantee that they were winning anyway. This is this is such a disgusting bet to make, but you know I do have this, you know, just based on my numbers, I do have this at point twenty five,
you know. And so for the for the Commanders to be getting two and a half, you can still get the two and a half a fan duel one and a half everywhere else, you know, for them still to
be getting that, I think there's value there. And you know, if you look at some of the trends, Mike Rabel as a head coach fifteen twenty one and one against the spread as a favorite, nine and fourteen against the spread following multiple wins in a row, and the Commanders, I think they are in a generally good spot, and that home underdogs are eighty two forty seven and seven against the spread off of a three game losing streak, and the teams that happen to go one in three
to open the year who are home underdogs in Week five, they are sixteen ten and one against the spread. But you know, looking at kind of the the big picture matchups, for this game, I think it comes down to the Commander's defensive line against the Titans offensive line. And even though the Commanders haven't had edge, Chase Young, who I think, you know, even with the injuries, will still end up being a very good addition to this team when he
comes back. The Commander's defense is open the season. They're number nine and adjusted sack and they are top eight in every key rushing efficiency metric rush, EPA, rush success rate, rush DVOA, adjusted lineyards their top eight and all of them. And you compare that to the Titans offense, which is not even average an adjusted sack rate or any rushing efficiency metric. And in the Fantasy pros Unit power rankings, we see the Commander's defensive line as having a significant
edge over the Titans offensive line. We have this defensive line at number fourteen. That feels, honestly, I think that's a little bit low, but I think that that's fine,
Like that's within the range. We have the Titans offensive line at number twenty seven, you know, like they are dealing with significant injuries, and you know, for the uh, you know, I just I think for the Titans, you could have Ryan Tannehill under pressure for a lot of the game, Derrick Henry, I think you could struggle to find open running lanes just because of the inefficiency of that offensive line. So and in the preseason market, this was Commanders favored by half a point, and my actually
is still pretty close to that. I don't think they should be favored, but I don't think they should be close to a field goal in terms of being an underdog here. So I do see value on this, even though like it's a disgusting bet. I freely admit that.
Well, I mean, that's your favorite kind of game, is the what like a disgusting kind of game, So of course this is what you're thinking. Ben. Are you with Matt or are you in some disagreement here?
I mean, I'm a lot more convinced of the of Washington's side now that I listen to Matt, But I have been painfully betting Washington the past two weeks, kind of after their Week one impressive performance, and I promise myself this was at least one spot where I could knock get on Washington's side. I mean, I definitely agree with Matt. We from PFI's perspective, we have tennesseee with like the twenty ninth best pass blocking grade to start
this season. Washington's like eighth overall in our pressure rate percentage per dropback, So that specific matchup is going to be kind of deciding the game, now, my, my. The other side of the coin that I kind of see is Tennessee has been really good from an EPA perspective. When they've had scripted plays kind of to start the game, They've got off to really good starting points. So I do expect them to potentially be playing from ahead here.
I'm hoping for, you know, an early touchdown type situation, and if that happens, I do think they could ride Derek Henry to the point where they are going to get this victory and maybe cover the spread. But I'm with Matt, I think, you know, the plus three for Washington was definitely the correct part price. I do think moving underfield goal differential, I probably still lean at Tennessee side. I would like to see, you know, the injury situation
with Washington wide receivers. I think John Dottson is probably on the wrong side of questionable right now. It sounds like Kurtis Seam is probably going to be on the right side of questionable. So I do think if you know one of them is able to go, that obviously helps a little bit. But if both those guys are out, I think it's going to be you know, it could be a pretty convincing win for Tennessee. So I'm either
avoiding it or riding with Tennessee on this one. So this will be the only time I go opposite matth though I promise.
You goes above three and a half, I'm with you. Then I'm not looking to lay Tennessee three and a half. But now that it's down to one and a half, and if I can continue to drop here, obviously we've already hit past that, we've already crossed the three, we're good for me. As Kelly Stewart said on the show, quoting Todd Furman a few weeks ago, you don't get rich laying points on the road. But I think I
have to lay one and a half here. I mean, the massive Peabody ratings have Tennessee a full six points better than Washington here ninth versus twenty ninth in their ratings for the season. I think this is just a case of good football, bad football. And Carson Wentz and calculated risk. Taker Ron are still bad football, and I think the Titans can at least you at least have Derrick Henry, but you also just have a better team overall. I don't have much faith in the Commanders at this
point in the season. One and a half is the right price for me to take the Titans here, guys. But the next game up, this one is probably my favorite game of the week. Here the Jets are taking on the Dolphins and Teddy Bridgewater filling in for Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback.
Here.
The Jets, of course, coming off the win over Kenny Pickett and the Steelers last week. They go home now and I feel like this is the second time in a row that we've seen this now where the Jets get a good win, good win on the road at the last minute. Now they come home and the Dolphins with Teddy b are laying three to three and a half depending on where you look at. MGM has it at three right now, especially now that I don't have to pay the hook on it. Give me the Dolphins
all the way here. I'm a Jets fan. This is a Jets disappointment spot. Always bet against two good things happening to the Jets in a row. What do you think in this one, Ben.
Yeah, I'm definitely with you on that.
I think, you know, Teddy's been a little bit of a cover machine, I would say, throughout his entire career, so I love backing him.
You know, especially you know, on the road.
I do think that it's not going to be as bad of a drop off from what the betting markets currently projected going from to Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback. I think a lot of the early season success that Tua saw was kind of because you know, Mike McDaniel was definitely pushing a lot of the right buttons.
I do think, you know, with with with with.
The ten days of preparation, Teddy is going to be in a very similar spot to that. The preseason number, I want to say, was at like, uh, you know, plus three and a half, which is basically where we're at now. I think if you were on the look aheadline last week, that was all we up to minus six and a half.
So I do think, you know, moving from six and a.
Half back all the way down to where we were at in the preseason is a pretty drastic, uh, pretty drastic over over over emphasizing of, you know, both the tu injury.
And what the New York Jets put forth last week. So I'm with you.
I think you know, anytime you can bet the second time for you know, the Jets to potentially fumble the bag a little bit there.
Like you mentioned, I do think it is probably the correct bet. So I'm on, I'm on, I'm on.
Miami here, and if I can get minus three, all the better, I would say, for sure. I do.
Also, the over in this one forty six points feels a little low to maybe, as the Jets with Zach Wilson can actually kind of move the football. He his mobility disguises the fact that this offensive line is about one injury away from calling me up and asking me to play left tackle. Matt, what do you think here?
I would I would like to So I'll say I have this exactly at three, But I will say I know that what's going into my numbers here might be wrong in that my assumption, and this is where I could be very wrong. My assumption is that Tua is one and a half points better than Teddy Bridgewater. But I don't know if I actually believe that. Like I and that's not to take anything away from Tua, who's looked really good this year, but you know, he's had the weapons around him. I think Mike McDaniel has used
him in a really intelligent way. And too, Bin's point with the Dolphins coming off of Thursday Night football, they have extra time, and you know they've known this whole time that Bridgewater was going to be the starter, and so what they have done for Tua, I think they can kind of adapt for Teddy, and so I feel I am probably discounting too much with the drop from
from Tua to Teddy. But Ben, I'm wondering if you can talk a little bit more about how you how you see that gap, exactly what you think that gap might be.
Yeah, it's a good question because I do think it very much depends on where you have to a rated or whatever. And I think you know, from our perspective, we have them right around, you know, three three points basically if you were kind of looking at like a spread differential drop off. But I also think Teddy Bridgewar is probably the best backup quarterback in the NFL. If
he's not, he's really close to it. Has been successful kind of stepping into that role in previous situations, So I really, you know, uh, put it more closer to like, you know, a point and a half differential between those two guys. I think that is basically what you but moving between or you know, dropping two three, I think, you know, has a much higher probability of even landing
on that out come. I do think it's worth you know, a lot more than you know, just saying like it's you know, it's a point and a half differential between these two teams, So I think are between these two quarterbacks. So I think, you know, getting down to three is more than enough to kind of say Teddy can definitely handle this in this particular spot, I would say.
Take the Dolphins here. Just just trust me on this. I've seen this movie way too many times. Take the Dolphins. That's my favorite player of the week. Matt. You're going with one that There are so many different things that I'm thinking about in this game here, So I'm eager to hear your thoughts on Detroit versus New England. Is it gonna be Zappy hour again here? This Detroit defense is bad, but they are getting three points here in
this spot. This line's still yep. Three, three and a half depending on where you look at MGMs three and a half? Are you going with Detroit in this one? Are are you going with the Patriots and their quarterback that yet to be named here?
Yeah, I'm going with Detroit. And I mean three and a half feels like such a great number to be able to get in this spot. You know, Dan Campbell just perpetual underdog fourteen and six against the spread as an underdog and road dogs off a loss since twenty eighteen. And I'll just say the reason why I'm picking twenty and eighteen is because that's when PASPA was pulled back. So I feel like that's when you started seeing just more more dumb money, for lack of a better way
of putting it, entering the sports betting market. So, like, what is the squarest thing that someone could do. They could bet, They could bet on someone at home, they could bet on a favorite, and like they could bet against a team that was coming off of a loss. So if you look at road underdogs off of a loss, they're one seventy nine ten against this bread since twenty eighteen, and so like that's like that's a pretty large sample.
And so that's something going towards the Lions, and the spot in home favorites home favorites of no more of with a spread of no more than minus three for twenty one four seventy one and fifty against the spread. So, like the bigger picture, trends are kind of pointing in opposite directions for these two teams and pointing towards the Lions. And then you take into account the fact that we really don't know who is starting for the Patriots in
this spot. I do not think it is mac Jones, even though he has been practicing on a limited basis. You know, the severity of the injury that he suffered in week three, the reporting was that expectations were for him to be sidelined multiple weeks. I'm very skeptical he starts in this spot. So that goes to back up Brian Hoyer, who was concussed. So maybe he's able to start. You know, quarterbacks is within the timeframe of when it's realistic to think that a guy has a real chance
to come back, but maybe not. You never know with concussions. Hoyer I think is as bad as he might be. In reality, he's still like an NFL veteran who knows the system. ZAPPI. Maybe. I mean he feels like Mike White, except without like without like the game of sexiness to make you think he actually might be something. So I am very skeptical of whatever is happening with the quarterback
situation for the Patriots, and then just big pictures. Stepping away from that, this Lion's rush offense against the Patriots rush defense, I think is going to just destroy. Even even though there's no you know, number one running back DeAndre Swift, I still think that they're going to run the ball really well. The Patriots defense ranks number thirty one in both rush DVOA and rush success rate. And you have censer Frank rag Noow. He's dealing with a
foot injury, but I'm not really worried about that. He didn't practice yesterday, but that's kind of keeping in pattern with his practice habits from last week when he played and wasn't at all on the injury boards, so I'm not worried about him. You got left guard Jonah Jackson who's dealing with a finger injury, but he returned to practice on Wednesday, which is a positive development, So he's got a shot to play this week. And then on
the other side, you have the Patriots. Last week, they were without defensive tackle Lawrence Guy, who was dealing with the shoulder injury. He's one of their main interior run stoppers. He didn't practice at all last week. He didn't practice on Wednesday, so I'm kind of skeptical that he's playing. In our Fantasy Pro's Unit power rankings, the Lions offensive line has a massive edge over the Patriots defensive line.
We have them ranked number three, the Patriots defensive line at number twenty six, so significant edge, and I think with that we're going to see the Lions just push the Patriots around and control the ball with their grand their ground attack, and I think that keeps this game close. This number was Lions plus one in the look ahead market.
That's where I have it projected. Now, maybe the market believes with the move from plus one to plus three plus three and a half, maybe the market beliefs that mac Jones actually has a real shot to play this week. That to me is like the only explanation for why this line has moved to two and a half points in the past week. But I'm skeptical that mac Jones plays, So I am very happy to be taking the three to three and a half currently out there.
I'm looking around right here for some injury updates. Mac Jones was on the practice field listed as a limited participant. Hoyer definitely still in concussion protocol. I think tomorrow will be the day where we really figure it out and see what's going to happen here. I am, of course always looking to the over in a Lions game now because you combine their ability to play offense with their
complete lack of ability to play defense. I mean, you turned the game with the Seattle Seahawks into a shootout. You're not stopping anybody right now. But Ben, what are you thinking on this one?
Yeah, I'm definitely in agreement with Matt. I think, you know, the line movement specifically just like doesn't add up whatsoever right now, both because you know it's very much in question whether mac Jones is going to play, but also you know, kind of what we just talked about with Tua and Teddy, right like, the we don't from PFS perspective, we don't really you know, think mac Jones is all that much better than Brian Hoyer, so for him to be worth you know, a full three points while also
moving through you know, the most important number that is there and betting on football and three actually, like it just seems like a lot. The injury situation for Detroit specifically is I would say a little concerned. Youate it sounds like Deandrew Swift, like you said on the questional side of doubtful. If Amon Ross Brown is back in, I think that's a pretty big boon to a Detroit passing offense that has been much better than expected.
I will cut you off real quick. I don't think that he's playing this week.
Yeah, yeah, I doubt he plays, so he's questionable.
And then yeah, Josh Reynolds I think is also up on the injury report. He's another guy that I think is also you know, borderline what's going to happen with him as well. So I am concerned about Detroit. But I think the weakness from Detroit's defense especially is it doesn't really play into the strengths of the Patriots offense, especially with Brian Horry at quarterback regularly, He's not going to be able to, you know, beat even the worst
coverage unit in the NFL deep downfield consistently. We might see one or two lucky plays, but I don't firmly really believe in the Patriots past catching unit to kind of make those contestant throws or contested catches downfield, So I'm concerned about that as well. So I think, you know, plus three and a half, even with you know, Detroit's skill position injury situation, I still think they're definitely the correct side here.
I'm just excited that for the first time since two hundred PC, people might actually be afraid to play against the Lions. So it's a it's a great time to be alive right now, as we move on to our next game, here the Bengals and the Ravens in a showdown that at the preseason we were definitely all circling the calendar for saying this was going to be a good game. And then the Bengals came out and didn't look so good through the first several weeks. But are
they back on track now? Ben we're seeing them in this spot here they are the Sunday night game and right now Bengals getting three on the road in this one three and a half If you can find it around town, bet MGM and points Bett.
Yeah, I'm I'm willing to be wrong on this one, but you know, from PFF's perspective, we still the Bengals, as you know, a better team overall and in basically all of our power rankings metric better offense. I do think that, you know, the Mark Jackson obviously builds up the Ravens offense to a point where he is definitely like an MVP type candidate, but you know, outside of him and Mark Andrews, there's there's definitely concerns, I would say,
for them actually being productive. Now. You know, the Bengals front has been pretty good from a pressure situation, so I do think they're going to be at least somewhat successful if they can kind of hold their gaps in keeping la Mar Jackson contained. And I do think that they have, you know, enough going up against what I would consider to be one of the worst secretaries in the NFL right now, in the Baltimore Ravens really beat up.
It seems like, you know, the Week two game against Miami kind of highlighted just how poor they're playing, especially on deep balls. I think that's you know, the one real strength from Cincinnati that we haven't really seen Carrie forward into twenty twenty two yet, So I think we're going to see a few big chunk plays. I think they're you know, going to be right there at the end.
So if I lose, you know, if I lose because the Ravens score a touchdown, I think to win this game out right, I'm definitely willing to take that because I think in the majority of situations this game is going to be settled by a field goal or less. So Bengals plus three and a half Sunday Night, I think is you know, probably my favorite spread that you can bet in Week five.
Matt, what are you thinking in this one?
Yeah? I like this. I got at plus three and a half. Definitely like it at three. Sorry, at three and a half much more than three because of the key number there. I haven't projected for two point twenty five, and so I think to be able to get it through the three. And you said that this was one of your favorite bets, I was gonna ask this is one that I am really eyeing for different contests, you know where you have to pick five, especially the contests have locked it in at plus three and a half.
I think there's there's significant value there, and so this is one of the ones that I think I will probably have there. And you know you said earlier that pff. Still with everything that you put into your your power ratings, you guys still have Cincinnati a little bit ahead of Baltimore. I have them at exactly the same spot in my power ratings. So yeah, I do think that you know, yeah, sure, homefield advantage, but you have two divisional rivals. I think
that counts for something. I think it should make the spread tighter. And so yeah, I think if you can get this at three or above, you're getting pretty good value there. Because this I don't think there should be a field goal.
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Here?
We got Carolina and San Francisco. Always a dicey proposition when you've got West going east and SF coming off of their big Monday night football win over the Rams minus six and a half over Baker and the Panthers here. I mean, on the one hand, it's Matt Ruhle and the Panthers. On the other hand, it's Kyle Shanahan and the forty nine ers as road favorites.
Man, where are you going here? Via Is?
As much as I want to be against you on this one, I really don't think I can be.
I know, I hate myself for this. I mean, no, I love to bet against Kyle Shahan anytime. He's a favorite of one of the joys in my life. But I don't want to do that with Baker Mayfield, or with Matt Ruhle, or with their offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo for that matter, None of those three guys I want to have any part of. But I really do think
that this is the right side here. Kyle Shanahan sixteen twenty six and one against the spread As a favorite, I mean, there's just there's something about the way that he calls games. He's great as an underdog, horrible as a favorite. I think he just gets a little too conservative with the play calling when they are in certain game scripts, and that allows teams, you know, pretty routinely to be able to get the spread. And for me, this comes down to the Panthers rush defense against the
forty nine Ers rush offense. You know, again, the Panthers, they're easy to make fun of because of everything they have going on with the coaching staff and on the offensive side of the ball, but you know, the defense is actually pretty good. They're they're top twelve against both the pass and the run in EPA. Their run defense especially, I think should help them keep this contest close. The forty nine Ers offense is number six in rush rate.
Like they want to run the ball. Their offense is heavily predicated on the running game, but they haven't been able to do it that well. They've been no better than number twenty in any of the key rushing efficiency metrics, whether it's EPA success rate, DVOA. Right, They're just they're not running as well as they have previously. And you know, the forty nine ers running game, it's especially hampered with
their injuries. They're without their number one running back, they're without one of their key backup running backs, and Terry and Davis Price they're without obviously like they're running quarterback in Trey lance. They're also missing their starting left tackle Trent Williams, who is easily the best offensive lineman that they have, and now they're probably going to be without backup left tackle Colton mckibbittz, who seems very certain to
be missing this game with a knee injury. So you put all that together, and the thing that the forty nine want to do the best, I don't think they're really going to be able to do all that well in this game. This number was Panthers plus three in the look ahead market just a week ago. Uh six six and a half. Now, Like, I don't think enough has changed from then to now to justify the line movement that we've seen. So I hate myself for doing it, but I will be betting the Panthers at six and a half.
Then what are you thinking here? Because you got me convinced, Matt, I mean I would. I will say this.
I do think the Panthers are the only correct side to bet on into this game. I just can't bring myself to do it. I think I've said week zero, week one that they are the worst team in the NFL. I think when you factor in, you know, the coaching situation, the quarterback situation, everything else, like They're just they're a
complete cluster. It seems like in so many situations on the flip side of that, like San Francisco has this weird, like almost Kyle Shanahan type tax in the betting market where it seems like they are kind of overvaluing him every single week. So I'll find myself on the other side of San Francisco when they're playing it, and I think it's a similar, you know, mindset with New England
Patriots as well. I do think that, you know, for some reason, the betting market does something with their coaching rankings or something else that kind of seems like those two teams are always overvalued compared to what I'm looking at. I'm not quite sure how they do that or what they're exactly looking at, but it's just a spot where I think they probably overvalue those two guys specifically, And so I'm going to find myself against San Francisco again.
Like you said, I think that Trent Williams injury has kind of changed their offense right, forced George Kittle to kind of stay in and at least Chip if not you know, past block to the point where they aren't really getting to him out in as many routes as he should be. So that kind of forces, you know, Deebo Samuel to be a pretty big playmaker after the catch, and that worked out well in their Los Angeles Rams game. But I don't really think it's a sustainable, long term
effective offense. So if I was betting a game, or if I was betting the side on this, I would definitely be on the Panthers. But I just can't bring myself to be on that side with Matt Rule anytime soon here. So I'm waiting for, you know, the coaching firing chair or something that happen before I can really get on board with Carolina reviving anything for the twenty twenty two season.
I'm sure there are plenty of Calcutta Carolina owners who are very much banking on just that to get that first coach fired bonus. But this next game that we have up here, the Cardinals going up against the Eagles. We got the Eagles laying five and a half right now on the road in Arizona against Cliff Kingsbury. Ben, I need you to tell me here what is PFF seeing? Are the Birds real?
I mean, I think the Eagles very much are for real. I think if you're you know, trying to rank powering teams right now, mainly based on twenty twenty two performance, it's it's kind of the Bills, but even their jury situation, I would say, knock them down a little bit. And then it's really the Philadelphia Eagles. You know, heading into the season, I would say, you know, two through fifty three or whatever. On Philadelphia side, we're probably the best
that you could find. Right, offensive line, best best in the NFL, you know, either secondary, I would say it has played better than expected. I think Darius Slay has at point's been you know, a shutdown type cornerback at the NFL level. It seems like he is, you know, finally really doing that week in and week on. I think that helps them immensely. And then of course Jalen Hurts, right,
he was probably the one question mark for Philadelphia. I would say, no matter how high your expectations were in twenty twenty two, he's probably exceeded those already, just based on the fact that he's doing it by delivering the football downfield accurately to his playmakers and they're you know, winning at the top of routes. And I do think that, you know, there was probably a consideration that he could do it rushing the football a lot, taking off on
some of these you know, broken down type plays. But the thing that's impressed me in most is his ability and his willingness to continue looking downfield even when he kind of breaks contained breaks out of the pocket, and those have kind of been, you know, some of their biggest chunk plays of the season. So I think if that continues, you know, they're going to be really hard out. But in saying all that, I am on the Cardinals side once again. I think they're a team that I'm
back basically for the last three weeks. I don't really feel overly confident about that particular you know idea, but I think, you know, the Cardinals were kind of a team that was just, you know, much maligned. I would say in the off season the Kyler Murray situation. Does he study plays Cliff Kingsbury. I think everyone you know at this point is pretty wise to you know, how in some ways defective he is as a head coach.
But I still think that you know, with where this where this number has moved home dog all things considered, I would take Cardinals plus five and a half, and it there's a spot that I'm betting and probably locking into some of those pick up contests as well.
Matt, what are you thinking here in this one? Are you going with the Eagles or are you taking Arizona? We do have three more weeks before the new.
Call of duty.
I know it's it's a great bird matchup that we have here, and this line has actually moved to to five at a couple of books, until you know, maybe there's still some lingering value there in the five and a half that we see. But yeah, I mean, it's just it's a disgusting slate for me, I think in general, and I'm on a whole bunch of underdogs that I really don't want to be on. But you know, I'm just kind of betting the numbers here and I'm going
with the Cardinals. Cliff Kingsbury horrible as a head coach. Horrible is a favorite, but pretty good as an underdog twenty nine and two against the spread as an underdog and on the money line uh sixteen fourteen and one as an underdog, which is good for a forty three point six percent return on investment. Like he's he has been good in this spot. And you know, maybe it's not so much him. It's probably not so much him.
It's probably just hey, Kyler, go do something. But I do think in this game, even though it's a it's a tough matchup. And I have been impressed by the Eagles defense, their secondary in particular, but they haven't been that good un rushed defense. And you know, the car again something of a joke. They're horizontal raid passing attack, but their running game has always been pretty good. You know, I think it's just something of a function of how
they play their offense. They force defenses to spread out, and the Eagles defense, you know, even though they tried to make additions this offseason to bolster the run defense, you know, defensive tackle Jordan Davis, through the draft, they signed in free agency, edge Hassan Reddick, linebacker Becazeer White, and free agency they drafted linebacker na Kobe Dean. They've they've made moves to try to improve against the run.
It still hasn't done anything right. The Cardinals they have outperformed the Eagles defense in every key rushing efficiency metric. And you know, and none of these rushing efficiency metrics is the Eagles defense in the top twenty. So if a home team can run the ball with success, it has a good chance to cover, whether it's a favorite
or an underdog. And in the offseason market we talked about this on the Tuesday Show with Drew Denzik and the offense season market, this line was Cardinals minus two and a half. I mean, yes, they have underperformed expectations to open the year and the Eagles have outperformed, but not enough for this line to move eight points in just four games. So again, hate myself for doing it. I will be taking the Cardinals at plus five and a half.
The last game that we have here on the slate that we want to talk about right now. The autumn wind may be a pirate, but the Raiders head into Kansas City this weekend to seven point dogs in this one. An old boy, it's Monday night football in Kansas City. You got the Chiefs buzzing on all cylinders right now.
I don't know. On the one side, you have the fact that the Raiders do always like to play this team tough, and you do have the fact that we have plenty of times before seeing the Chiefs look absolutely invincible one week and then come out and lay an egg the next But Matt, where are you going in this one? Are you taking the Chiefs and laying the points or are you riding with the Raiders?
Yeah? I will be very square, very fishy here. Just tell me it's Andy Reid playing a divisional opponent, Okay, I'm going with the Chiefs. Or tell me it's Patrick Mahomes in primetime. Okay, I will bet on that side. Andy Reid is thirty three to twenty one and one against the spread with the Chiefs against divisional opponents. Patrick Mahomes fourteen nine and one against the spread in primetime.
And for me, this really does come down to Patrick Mahomes going against a Raiders pass defense that I think is really bad. And for a team to cover a big spread, it needs to be able to move the ball through the air so they can score a lot of points quickly, and obviously with Patrick Mahomes the Chiefs can do that. Even without Tyreek Hill, they're top eight and all the key passing efficiency metrics this year, and the Raiders defense very much is not. This is one
of the worst pass defense units in the league. In our Fantasy Pros unit power rankings, I see Mahomes as having a massive edge over the Raiders defense and the secondary in particular. I personally think Mahomes is still the best quarterback in the league. But as a staff, we have him ranked number two. Fine, he's top two. He's going against the defense that we have ranked number twenty five and a secondary that we have ranked number twenty nine.
This is just a massive edge advantage that he has, and I think the Chiefs will be able to score at will. And I do not think that on the other side of this, the Raiders offense will be able to keep up enough against a Chiefs defense that isn't great, but is good enough.
I'm curious here when you say he's not the number two quarterback on your rankings. That's behind Bailey's appy right, almost very close, very close. He's number three. All right, Ben, what are you thinking in this game? I would say, you know, I'm pretty much with Matt, right. I think we don't really have a strong lean in one direction. I don't think this is the rate, you know, even close to the.
Same Raiders team that beat you know, the Chiefs outright basically, you know, was the last year two years, God, in my years run them? Yeah, so it's but it's you know, obviously things have turned over with the Raiders. I would say Josh McDaniels has been very lackluster to start. It seems like they're just not really utilizing Devonte Adams in a role that I would have even expected to kind
of start the season. So with that in disarray a little bit, you know, I think this is probably closer to like an eight point differential based on PFS power rankings numbers only. So if you fold in you know, a little bit of expectation for home field advantage as well, you can easily see why the Chiefs might be the
correct side in this particular matchup. But yeah, what it comes down to with me and the Chiefs is if I knew when Andy Reid was motivated to call and like unveil his you know, arsenal of creative plays and everything else, I would bet them every single week. The problem is sometimes he he seems to almost you know, not really willing or not really wanting to show or
put his best plays on tape. But I do think that you know, in primetime Division rival a spot where they can you know, kind of you know, very Las Vegas Raiders for all intents and purposes and have no shot of really winning or competing for a playoff spot, much less the AFC West crowd. I think we're going to see probably the best version of the kingsc cate Chiefs one more week, so they're the only side I
would bet. I've not bet them yet, but I think at minus seven or whatever, its Chiefs or Busts.
In my opinion, if I have to lay seven points with any team in the league, especially this week, and this slate has a lot of those options, it's got to be the Chiefs. I mean, last week I was on the Raiders, but that was against Denver. This is a whole different story here. And we're talking about this Chiefs team last year. They outscored the Raiders eighty nine to twenty three in both of their matchups last season. Yeah, the Raiders almost got the best of them the year before,
winning one and losing one by four. But this is just an I texted Matt right after the right after the Raider game last week, and I just said Chiefs by forty this week that this team is this is not going to be good for the Raiders in prime time. Now, guys, before we get you out of here. I want to ask the end of every show, if you had to pick a team for your Survivor pick this week, Chiefs do seem like an enticing option at home, but that
is a divisional game. I was looking at Jacksonville against Houston, but Jacksonville has actually lost to Houston the last four times that they've played. But this is a very different Jags team here. Matt, what are you thinking? Would Jacksonville be your pick or would you go somewhere else? And the Survivor.
Yeah, so I always forget that you're going to mention this, and so every time you start wrapping, Yeah, I'm sure it is in the rundown. You know, it would have to be something that I actually pay attention to. But yes, you are right, it is in the rundown. And so the team that immediately caught my eye was Jacksonville here because you probably haven't used them yet. I mean, you just want to pick on Houston when you have the opportunity, and some of these other teams I think you probably
want to save. So I think Jacksonville is a decent play here. That said, this is coming from a guy who died in Survivor in week one, so don't listen to anything. I have to say.
I have two picks, and I use one to go with like a chalkier team where I'm using up all the good teams early, and one where I've been taking a couple more risks. This feels like a good spot for Jacksonville on the risk is when are you going to use them again? But Ben, what do you think? Do you have an alternative for us? Or are you saying ride with the Jags.
I mean I would say if you didn't use the Vikings last week, I think this week is probably one of the best options to take them. I don't have their full schedule in front of me, but seven and a half point favorites at home. I know you're backing Kirk Cousins after you know, long traveled everything else, but I think they're a pretty good spot. I don't know if you're gonna feel, you know, any more carveord picking
them at any other point in time. So I would say the Vikings might be an ulterior option if you don't want to, you know, use up one of the best teams in the NFL or the Jacksonville Jake. Whereas at the stage, well, there we go.
That's going to do it for us here today, Ben, Where can people find you and all the great your work you're doing around the internet and for PFF.
Yeah, definitely. So PFF does have a you know, new mobile app that's still i think technically in Beata or whatever. You can download that if you're an iPhone user within the continent or within the United States I shouldn't say content of the United States. So you can definitely check that out. Check me out at PFF Underscore Ben Brown
on Twitter. I'm also somewhat infrequently on TikTok, but trying to step my game up a little bit more, so you can follow me on there as well, same user name, and yeah, you know, I'd love to, you know, connect with some users where people that listened to this podcast if they have any feedback specifically about PFF products or tools or anything you want to see, definitely hit me up from the DMS for.
Sure, Matt Matt is going to do it for us one more time here, Ben Brown at PFF Underscore.
Ben Brown, Ben Brown, Ben bro There's way too many bends out there for me to get the PFF Underscore Ben Moniker or whatever.
It is, I'm rolling with the last name as well.
And of course you can find Matt on Twitter at Matt f the Oracle, catch me at TV at work, and don't forget head on over to Betting Pros today at betting Pros on any social media app if you want to find them. Actually that's not true. They're betting Pros NFL on everywhere but Twitter.
But still, you know what.
I'm talking about here. Go to Bettingpros dot com slash chat, sign up for the Discord today, and guys, that's gonna do it. Best of luck this weekend, and let's cash some tickets.