Hey there, everyone, and welcome back to another episode of the Betting Pros NFL podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris and you can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Adi. It is time for our early look at next week's lines, and there are some pretty interesting ones out for week four. With me to break it all down is Rich Ryan, host of the Gridiron Gamble podcast. You can find Rich on Twitter at rich t Ryan.
Rich.
How's it going?
It is going quite well. It's still nice and warm out here in beautiful southern California. I like you are now. I used to be an East Coaster and I will never find myself back on the East Coast barring something incredible, because I can't get away from the sunshine and warmth.
Well, I'm not just the East Coast, to be clear. I'm like Northeast Coast, so usually we're covered in snow, but today was ninety so I'm basically right where you are. Yeah, it's the best.
Now.
I'm actually really glad that you're on the show because I didn't know this, but we were talking right before we recorded. Like me, you are also a Jets fan, so we can basically commiserate together, except for the fact that the Jets are on a bye this week, so we do not have to work out now. Theoretically, if the forty nine Ers were facing the Jets on a neutral field, I don't know, eight and a half maybe depends, I guess on if Darnold was going to play.
But I feel like.
Whatever it would be, you would have to hammer home the forty nine Ers no matter what, because if you've watched the Jets, especially with Luke Falk, you are not optimistic right now on their season. But in the meantime, Rich and I are going to go game by game here for Week four, and we're going to start with the Thursday night game between the Packers and the Eagles, and we'll end with the Monday night game between the
Bengals and the Steelers. And again I will note that the Jets and the forty nine Ers are on by here this week, so this is the first time we don't have a full slate, so we can really hammer down on the games that are remaining. Now, we're going to be using the consensus odds over at bettingpros dot com. That's an aggregation of the odds that are available in the market, but as always, there are going to be differences in the various sportsbooks, so make sure to shop
around for the best odds. Also, if you want to see how some of the top sports betting experts are leaning on any given bet at any time, bettingpros dot Com is going to show you that too. All right, Rich, let's dive right in here with the Eagles at the Packers on Thursday night. We've got the Packers laying four
and a half. Now, this opened much lower as you might have expected, at two and a half, but it has moved to four and a half and the over under is currently at forty five and it was originally at forty eight. I assume that this movement is because the Eagles are dealing with a ton of injuries, right yeah, And the.
Injuries we knew going into last week were mostly of their weapons on the defensive side. We did have Timmy Jernigan Jernigant injured, and then of course we know about al Seon Jeffery and some of the receiving weapons there. But then within the game we get Jason Peters with an illness. He's replaced by Andre Dillard at left tackle.
We thought they had an embarrassment of riches upfront. He goes out with an injury, so some compounding injuries outside of the skill positions that we knew about last week. And then on the other of the ball, the Packers three and zero, a lot of defense to start this season at home. What's really a shame about this game is that it's on Thursday night. Two great teams. I wish they had more time to prepare for this game, and I think that kind of plays into both the
line and the total. The public is absolutely smashing the
Packers right now. I'm seeing a seventy three percent clip on the number of bets being laid, and I tend to lean their way, but you're right about the opener look ahead was in the same range two and a half three, So we're seeing about a point a half movement based upon last week's performance of the Eagles looking terrible at home and getting more injuries, and then the Packers of course covering as big home favorites against the Denver Broncos in a game that was probably a little
closer than people think. So I think I shade the Packers here, but with so much public sentiment piling on in Green Bay. I think I'm in wait and see mode right now.
Yeah, fading the public is usually a pretty sound strategy going on over here. Although last week, you know the Rams. I remember thinking from Sunday night that the Rams were such a public play and I wanted to get off it, but I couldn't because they were laying three And eventually, with all the injuries to the Cleveland secondary, that line moves. But sometimes you know, the public has it right, it's
not always the best strategy now. Also, the Eagles as well lost Ronald Darby, so they are really banged up here. I think he's out for four weeks. He is certainly out for this game. It does sound like Jeffrey has a chance to play here. Deshaun Jackson is out. I don't really think it's going to make a difference at this point. They are just so banged up and really in the end, the bottom line is the Packers. Their defense is really strong, and it's really really strong against
the pass. Their cornerbacks are playing extremely well. They're a little vulnerable on the ground. You mentioned the Broncos. They showed that a little bit on Sunday with Philip Lindsay having a good game. Royce Freeman wasn't bad either, But you know, I know Miles Sanders had a huge game against the Lions, but in the end, they don't really want to rely on that. Sanders had some fumble issues. It's not like Jordan Howard is going to tear it up. So in the end, the way to attack the Packers
here is on the ground. And with everything they've got going on, with the injuries to their defense, with their lack of a strong running game, I'm not surprised that this line has moved already as much as it has, and I wouldn't be surprised if it gets up to five by the time it goes. I like you lean towards the Packers at this point. The total I don't really have a great feel for right now. I mean it's dropped again by three points, I believe from the
look aheadline, So that's understandable. The Eagles are still putting up points even with all their injuries. I mean, the Lions don't have a terrible defense and they still wind up putting up points. Although I did see some bizarre stat that Wentz was tied for I think he had three drops on deep passes, which was tied among if you combined all other quarterbacks yesterday or something like that. It's I mean, nelsonageler Man, he makes some place but I can't. So I think you and I are pretty
much in agreement on this one. We look right now for the Packers four and a half, probably maybe five. It's Thursday, so it doesn't have as much time to move. But it is one where I feel like we'll both probably in the end come out on the side of the public, but not something that we really feel overly strongly about, right, Yeah.
For sure. And if you're listening to us and saying, well, these guys are idiots, I think the Eagles are being totally undervalued coming off of that game. Then, like you said, the strategy there is probably to wait and see if this game creeps up a little bit. We're not talking about key numbers here. I don't think it'll over flirt
with seven or anything like that. But you know, you can always get the half point of value a point of value here, and those those can really at the end of the day be winners and help you on the loane. Yeah.
Absolutely, you never know on this one. I can't see the line dropping from four and a half, so if you do, like the Eagles, you might as well just wait it out as long as possible. Let's move on to the Panthers at the Texans. Interesting one here, with Kyle Allen getting the start again already Cam Newton to clear it out. Texans here are laying four and a half. The over under is at forty six. Thoughts on this.
One another game where the public is definitely favoring the home team. We're seeing the Texans getting about seventy percent of the tickets. Look aheadline didn't move really at all.
I'm seeing a five and a half look ahead, so I guess down to points and most of that has to do with Kyle Allen coming in and looking competent, and anybody that watched Week seventeen last year Panthers at Saints, we saw a Saints team that was still jocking for a position in the NFC, playing a meaningful game at home, and Kyle Allen kind of marched up and down the field against them before suffering an injury and the third
string quarterback had to jump in. With Cam Newton out for the season, this is another game where it's a dead number. It's two teams that I'm still not super confident in either one. I think the Panthers have a decent amount of talent, specifically on the defensive side of the ball, but that can be neutralized by a passing attack as ferocious as the Houston Texans. What I was really impressed by, and luckily I caught a lot of
the Texans game last year. Last week, sorry since he was against the Chargers and it was here on the local CBS affiliate, is the Texans offensive line is starting to come together a little bit. Tounsoll looked really good at left tackle, and that was obviously their biggest woe coming into the season. We talked about Andre Dillard there briefly for the Eagles, and they kind of got sniped
in the NFL Draft. They were about to pick Dillard and the Eagles traded up to take him right in front of him, which kind of triggered their trade for Tunsel. So another game where I don't have a very strong opinion. I think I have the slightest of leans towards the Texans, but I'm definitely intrigued as to what Kyle Allen can bring to this Panthers offense.
I have zero feel for this game. I'm just gonna be completely honest, I really do, and I think it's partly because I don't really know what we can expect from Kyle Allen. Again, the Cardinals have a terrible defense. He looked great, but the Cardinals are really not doing it when they're down both their starting cornerbacks. So look, the Panthers could very easily be three and zero if Cam Newton could throw the ball pretty much at all. I do like their team really, I mean he was
especially the game against the Bucks. Forget if he just gave that one away. They really are a strong team and I like them a lot. And the Texans are fine. I was a big Texans backer before the season. Their offensive line did play a little bit better yesterday against the Chargers, but still Watson holds the ball way too long. I feel like he is just out there gunning for
an injury. But in the end, I just don't feel like I have a good sense of what the Panthers are yet, so this game, I don't know what the line would have to be to make me feel comfortable either way, but it sounds like you're kind of there maybe a slight lean on the Texans for you. I'm kind of a stay away on this game at this point. At four and a half sounds about like the right number, and probably again you said it, it didn't move barely at all from the look ahead number. It hasn't moved
since I checked it early yesterday. So in the end, I think this is one that's probably right about on par and not one that I see a whole lot of.
Value in watching last year and watching Deshaun Watson, as you say, I feel like there's very few opportunities for us to get him fully healthy. And you could probably throw Will Fuller in there too, perennial out for the season player Will Fuller. So I feel like there's a modicum of value that when these two guys are upright and we can place a wager on them, there might be some value there. So maybe I'm just grasping onto those two guys while they're still standing. No, I like it.
They're relatively healthy and you do want to jump on them when they are. And Kenny Stills has added another dimension two to the passing game. He's been a nice a sedition. Let's move on to the Browns. At the Ravens. The Ravens now are minus seven. I think I checked yesterday and it might have been minus four and a half before that Browns game. I don't know. The over unders said it forty six and a half. The seven number for me is tough once it got to the
key number. I mean, I loved, certainly the Ravens at minus four and a half. The Browns look in total this ray, even though they could have tied that game up pretty easily had they had even a remotely decent play caller.
But what's the reaction here?
Ravens minus seven over under at forty six and a half.
I'm done giving out ugly slight public leans. This line to me is pretty stupid. Like you said, you saw a four and a half look ahead, there was a three and a half out there prior to the games that were played this entire week, and I believe Friday I looked at this when I wrote this down. We're really moving the line three and a half points because the Browns looked inept on national television. Granted, the Ravens looked good on the road. They actually went punch for
punch for the Chiefs. I think you can call that a back door cover though the Chiefs. It seems like, especially after that second quarter blitzkrieg, which seems to be their new trend, they were in control of that game and the Ravens are just kind of punching up for the remainder of it. But this line should be way shorter than what it is right now. The Browns, I don't think they'll look as bad as they did last week.
And it's really hard to take anything away from that Jets game, because one can say that the Browns should have dominated that game even more than they did. But it's got to be really hard to get up for a game against Trevor Simeon and then once Falco's in there and you're just kind of going through the motions, I don't know how much we can really take away
from that. So now that this has moved to a key number of seven, you've got seventy seven percent of the public just piling on a very public home team here. I think there's a lot of value in the seven, and as somebody who plays the super contests like you, I am praying that we get this full seven when the west Gate lines come out on Wednesday.
All Right, so that's gonna be one of your picks, and I am less confident. I agree that seven strikes me as a very high number. I completely agree at four and a half or three and a half, I was all over it. At seven, that's really tough, and a divisional game, which is always kind of throws everything a little bit into the air. I agree that the Browns are better than they have shown so far. They could have easily won that game yesterday if they didn't
shoot themselves in the foot. They did not look good against the Jets. Okay, I agree that it's hard to get up for that game, but they really really did not look good and that sort of put me off them a little bit. Seven is a really tough number. The public's gonna continue to pound the Ravens without a doubt, right I mean, and it's just it's a one to eighty from where we were preseason, right, Everybody that the highest bet team to win the Super Bowl was the Browns.
Baker Mayfield I think was the most bet to win the MVP, and now everybody's just running away from them based on how they look. I agree the seven number. It just makes me uncomfortable. I don't I agree that when you're looking at it the values with the Browns at that number, I really don't know if I'm gonna be able to take it at seven. I bet it stays there. I don't think it's gonna drop below the key number. I bet you they're gonna keep it there
because they're just gonna keep getting money. Oh, sure, on the Ravens. So I think if you like the Browns, you can wait it out. I don't think it's gonna move very much. I don't think you're gonna lose any value unless you think it could drop below the key number. Now in light of all the public betting, I don't see it. But do you think any chance it drops back down to six and a half or six?
Well, if it moves, if it's being this heavily bet on the raven side and it breaks the key number and goes down to six and a half, that means the sharpest in which means you might want to fire like Browns money line.
If that's an If it moves the other way with a public betting, yeah, you go right after the Browns right there, so we'll see. I don't know it sounds like you think it might get more sharp action. I don't know, man, I don't know. I'll be honest, I'm not I'm not as as optimistic on the Browns the rest of season, but this is one.
This is one of those where when it hurts right, when you have to pinch your nose to get every sense of stench away from the pick, you know it's the right side.
Boy. That is a fantastic philosophy and I definitely think that Better should adopt it going forward. Chiefs at Lions, Chiefs laying six and a half over under at fifty four, that's a that's a high total there. What do you think, Chiefs laying six and a half over under fifty four.
You had Rufus Peabody on last week and you guys had a really great sidebar about Modelbusters guys teams that are on the outlier, that it's really hard for models to adjust for them. And Roof has talked about how he is okay with being wrong when it comes to the outliers, and it makes sense he wants to regress everything to the mean and if he's putting a similar type bet, like if his units are consistent across and
he just loses these let these couple outlier bets. He's fine with that because in the long run he's gonna win, which which makes a ton of a ton of sense. And the Chiefs just like the Patriots. These they're they're just they're just modelbusters, man, and and it it doesn't matter who's on the other side, it doesn't matter what the conditions are. These two second quarter performances, first against Oakland and last week against the Ravens have been things that you could only do in a video game.
And I like, he's not human, it's not Mahomes is not normal. I I know where you're going. That's exactly where you're going. You cannot, would you.
I don't.
I can't see a scenario. Although I think the line, probably to be fair, should be based if I hadn't my models sitting here, it would probably be closer, closer to five and a half maybe six.
But it's heavy. But I'm not touching. I'm not touching.
Oh god, I love that answer. That is absolutely correct. You cannot touches. And look, they didn't cover against the Ravens, and there was a lot of I think heavy action in on the Ravens this past week, but it was a backdoor cover. As you said, they could have easily blown that game away, you know, and easily won by ten or twelve points that they if they really wanted to. I agree, Man, it's just not where I'm touching it.
I think there's value in the Lions. I think realistically, if you looked at the game, that it should be closer to six, maybe even five and a half. The Lions are a good team. Surprisingly, they played the Eagles tough, they played the Chargers tough. They should have beaten the Cardinals. They could be three and zero right now. So for me, I'm just not going anywhere. If anything, I think I'd probably back the Chiefs just because it's basically a model buster.
Yeah, like you said about the Lions. The Lions go on the road last week as a big do win outright, and the line moves a point and a half in the other direction, and the public is piling seventy seven percent on that team. Right. This is otherworldly what we're seeing from it. It really is.
The One thing to note is that I Darius Lay injured his hamstring in the last game. It is possible that he's going to miss In fact, I think the latest report sounded like it was likely, and that's only going to bolster the Chiefs chances here. But in the end it doesn't really matter because Mahomes makes unreal throws, but half the time the guys are just running down the field completely uncovered. It doesn't really matter. So in the end, if Sleigh is out, I certainly lean stronger
towards the Chiefs. If I had to pick a side, it would be the Chiefs. But man, it is just difficult to properly analyze these types of games because mymes, he's a video game. Like you said, it's just not normal. Let's move on here to the Patriots at the Bills. We finally have a normal Patriots spread. This is Patriots minus seven. The over under is that forty three. Julian Edelman did injure his ribs I believe, or his chest.
That's called both. Josh Gordon left on and off with the injury yesterday, and of course they no longer have Antonio Brown. What's your I have a kind of a strong reaction to this one, So let me know if you feel anything on the Patriots link seven over under forty three in Buffalo.
I'm more interested to hear you because I'm very much on the fence about this because historically, like the Patriots or like the Chiefs, the Patriots are the model busters. And my gut, my total analysis is saying, of course the Bills of the right side, we're talking about a division game getting a full seven. I'm seeing minus one sixteen on the betting pros view right now, which means the action is definitely on the Bills, and there's a chance that this could fall to six and a half.
So if you're out there and you are intrigued by a buffalo, now might be the time to grab them while you get the full seven. But just like the Chiefs, you just don't make money betting against the New England Patriots. So if I'm going to do anything in this game, I might go for a long teaser and drop the Pats down to one and pair them with another side. But me personally, I'm not gonna be happy holding a plus seven ticket and watching this game an Orchard Park.
It is really interesting this year, Like, you're never gonna feel comfortable taking the Dolphins. They could be getting twenty four points and you're just gonna be like, I just I know this is value, but I do not feel comfortable in it. You're gonna feel the same way when you bet against the Patriots, which is why I think, honestly, this is not a high enough spread.
I know it.
Look, the Bills are three, and now they're playing at home. They've got a nice home field advantage. But I don't I mean, if ed Only doesn't play, perhaps, okay, maybe I get it because they're just kind of running out of options at this point. But in the end, I just don't really fully buy what we've seen from Buffalo right now. They have beaten up on three really really weak teams, the Jets, the Giants, and the Bengals, who
are probably the best of the bunch. The Patriots have gone up there at least the last two years, I think the last three and just demolish the Bills, blown them out of the water. I see that happening again. I think they want to make a statement coming in here and show just how good they are. I think that defense, although again the Patriots have also generally had soft matchups. They did have the Steelers in Week one,
but Ben probably was dealing with the elbow injury. I think they're going to go up there and I think they're gonna pound, and honestly, there's no way I'm betting against them pretty much under any circumstances at this point. It's a little bit like the model buster theory, like you said. But for me, I look, as much as the early money might be coming in, if I like the Bills, I'd actually wait this out because I think
it's going to get past the key number. I think this closes its seven and a half or eight, because I think eventually, when you look at it the Bills, it's, you know, as much as their defense is solid, absolutely they're not good enough to stop the Patriots because no defense is and their offense, I mean, it's fine, but if Singletary is out again, I mean they kind of grinded out that win against the Cincinnati team that was
run all over by San Francisco the week before. So for me, I think once you the Bills get behind, I don't think they're gonna be able to run the ball as much as they want. You're gonna have to put in Josh Allen's hands. There's gonna be like forty interceptions. So I think in the end this spread is actually going to go a little higher when all things sort of settle and that if you want the Bills, I might actually wait it out because I think the spread might go a little bit higher.
I definitely agree that the Bills seem to be a bit overvalued, while it's not being shown in this spread. Again, again, this is the Bills going to three and zero and the look aheadline is up a half point in the other direction. But yeah, you're right, Bills. They win at Jets, at Giants home to Bengals. Basically, this isn't a zero zero team.
And by the way they lost against the Jets, they should have if CJ. Moseley does not get injured in that game, they were down sixteen to nothing. I believe they do not come back to win that game. So I'm really I just they're a decent team, and I think they were at six and a half wins by the way. Preseason I had the over on them. I listed them in one of our preseason episodes. But I just don't see it. I think the Patriots are going to blow them out of the water.
See J. Mosley, No good deed goes unpunished, makes an amazing play in coverage, and of course Hurts is going.
That's how it happens, but it looks like we're a little bit on different sides. You're not jumping for joy over the bills, but I have a strong Patriots leane. I think the line's going to move up. So we'll see about that one before we move on to our next game. I do want to tell everyone about the sponsor of today's show, bet MGM. Now I've been telling you about bet mgm pretty much the entire length of this podcast. It's the easiest and best way to place a bet if you're in the state of New Jersey.
Just search for and download the bet mgm Sports app on your phone or visit betmgm dot com. Sign up for an account, and you can place a bet right from your home and betmgm offers a ton of features that make sports betting even better. They offer early cash out where you can settle a bet before the game ends to lock in your winnings.
Or cut your losses.
You can track your bets in real time, and they offer daily boosted bets and promotions across all major sports. And they've got this great promotion right now where you can place a risk free five hundred dollars bet. Here's how It works when you download the betmgm Sports app and you sign up using our promo code Harris. That is my last name, Harris. Then your first bet of up to five hundred dollars is risk free. If you lose, betmgm is going to credit you the amount you lost
up to five hundred dollars for future wagers. Just download the app and use the promo code Harris to claim the promotion, and you can go to betmgm dot com for further details. You must be twenty one years or older. And although you can sign up an easily deposit money anywhere, you must be in the state of New Jersey to place the sports bet. Just visit betmgm dot com for the full list of terms and conditions. And if you've
got a gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. All right, let's move to the next game here, Chargers at Dolphins. This also hasn't moved as far as I could tell. The Chargers are laying sixteen and a half, the smallest spread we've seen with the Dolphins in a while, and the over unders had forty four and a half. Thoughts on this one.
This is the week, right, This has to be it. This is it. You're going with the Dolphins. This has to be it. The Dolphins inside the number for the entire game last week until Pollard walked in with a touchdown towards the end there. If you had real money in the Dolphins last week, I apologize because that should have been the week. But this is definitely the week for those of you that are listening to this and
that listen to Gridiron Gamble. Since the preseason, we've been asking questions about this Chargers team, and all they've done since then is lose Derwin James. They lost cornerback. I believe it was in Michael Davis. And you've never heard of Michael Davis probably I probably had never heard of him before he got hurt. But one of our rules on the podcast is if you don't know somebody and they're out, just imagine how bad their backup is, because they're gonna be taking the field. This is a bad
Chargers team. This is a six and ten type roster that we're clinging onto last year's late run and playoff plays into this season, and that's just not the case. I think this game is going to be surprise closer than people think Rosen looked good last week, did not
get any help from his receivers. But as Rufus said last week, this is a professional football team with professional players, and I really think this is the week that the Dolphins play a competitive game, and I love them at this number.
Actually, it's all, Oh, that's like the strongest take that I have heard in a while, and I love it and I'm really excited by it.
Look, the Dolphins could have been.
Ahead yesterday at halftime. Okay, if Kenyan Drake doesn't fumble the ball, if anybody can hold on to the ball, they might go into halftime ahead. And like you said, they pretty much should have covered had they not blown it at the very end. It's a West Coast team traveling east. The only thing I will say is that the charters are probably pretty mad and they're pretty desperate for a win. They are banged up, as they are always banged up, as you point out, so I can
see it certainly being close. But again, this is one of these things where, man, I know, I know that the right way to do it is just a bench, you know, to keep kind of putting money at the Dolphins where there's value. I don't know if I could do it, I certainly don't feel as strong as you do, but I admire your enthusiasm.
Man. I think it's fair.
I think in the end, when push comes to shove, if it stays at this number, and as far as I've seen there's been no signs of it moving, I probably would lean towards the Dolphins. I agree with you that they are just a little bit better than they've shown, and they looked better yesterday until ultimately blowing it. So that is something where I don't think I expected you to come up and be like this is it Dolphins all the way? But you know, the West coast traveling
east is certainly a real thing. So that's interesting. Okay, we'll see if this line moves, but in the end you like it at Dolphins getting sixteen and a half. I'm a little less excited about it, but I do lean that way. So that's all a fair point. Let's move on to our next game, Raiders at the Colts. The Colts here are laying six and a half and the over under is at forty four and a half. Colts coming off a big win. They look good. They did lose t Y Hilton. I haven't heard about his
availability yet for next week. It didn't sound particularly great when I heard about it, but they have obviously looked very strong. They haven't missed Andrew Luck that much. To Kobe Brissette, looks very comfortable. They have a strong defense, They've got a strong offensive line, and the Raiders, after looking great against the Broncos, have laid up two duds, admittedly against tough teams and the Vikings and the Chiefs.
What do you think here? Colts lank six and a half at home in the over under at forty four and a half.
The Colts the exact opposite of the Chargers. We kind of loved them as a collective unit coming into the season, and our love did not fade with the Andrew Luck retirement because we believe in Frank Reich, we believe in the way this team constructed and is constructed, and moreover, we believe in this Colts offensive line, which is just moving mountains. And credit to Marlon Mack. Marlon Mack last year kind of got what it was blocked for him
and was good for it. And he's added some tools to his game which have taken it to the next level where he's obviously getting what's blocked for him and then some This game's interesting because look Ahead was six. You said it was six and a half, but it opened at seven in some places, and it was sharply pounded back to six and a half despite seventy five percent of the public being on Indy. So that's a very quick reverse line move off of a key number,
which makes me very very queasy knee jerk. I want to say that the Colts might be the right side in this game, but it's getting to the point where can we trust Jacoby Prissett to cover large lines to win the game? Sure, I think the Colts are a great teaser candidate. It stinks that they're it's funny as a tease. It stinks that they're below seven, so you don't get the true wong teas. We're still getting them down to a half point, which is still great value.
And the problem is is that Persett's not one to throw the ball downfield and really extend the lead. We saw that yesterday that got out to a massive lead against the Falcons and really didn't put them away. Obviously, the Falcons have a great offense. Matt Ryan when he's on is fantastic. Julio Jones is out of this world.
So I think the Colts should have won more comfortably yesterday, but left the door wide open and that could ultimately bite them in the ass here when they're laying six and a half against the Raiders.
So yeah, I don't. I kind of like you. I don't have a great feel for the spread. I mean, six and a half I kind of heavy, right, it feels heavy, it's heavy. I agree with you really. For me, it sticks out a little bit at the over under at forty four and a half. I feel like I like the over they're coming in. I feel like the Colts can score pretty much at will early on against the Raiders. I feel like they do take their foot off the gas a little bit, and like you said,
Kobe Brissett doesn't just keep piling on the points. But I do think they get a little lackadays ago here on defense. As the games go on, I see them being probably a similar script to what happened against the Falcons. I see them probably jumping out to a lead, taking their foot off the gas a little bit. They just lock lost Malie Cooker as well, so their defense takes a little bit of a hit and the Raiders the offense isn't terrible by any means. I mean, Josh Jacobs
certainly can can move the ball. He's not involved in the passing game yet. Darren Waller is a player for sure, and Tyrell Williams has been getting it done so even without Brown, I think they can put up points. So for me, the spread, it makes me a little worried. I think, certainly the Coults are gonna win, but whether or not they can cover nearly a touchdown spread makes
me a little nervous. But I do like as at this point at forty four and a half, I like the over because I think both teams can put up points here.
I like that. I like this just real quick. I like this Raiders' offense on the turf, especially because they do have a ton of speed. Darren Waller is not your traditional tight end. He's more of a massive wide receiver. He can get down the scene than you got Tyre Williams that you mentioned, and then JJ Nelson he's like a world class sprinter on the outside. So yeah, the over is definitely in play.
Yeah, and they put up you know, they put up some points against the Vikings. A lot of it was garbage time, but I could see the same thing happening here. So for me, the one that sticks out here is more of the over at forty four and a half. Let's move on to the Titans at the Falcons. The Falcons here are laying four and a half the over unders at forty six. Falcons dealing with a huge injury with the loss of Can O'Neil but otherwise everybody's relatively healthy.
How you feeling about this? Falcons laying four and a half at home over under forty six to the Titans.
Poor Kean O'Neil man lose this out on last year and then he knows as soon as he hits the turf he got an extend.
He got penalized for taking off his helmet.
That fifteen yard penalty for just for going on ir that was his penalty. Yeah, terrible, It's just insanity. I don't I'm a bit of a fence there in this game. Dead number, all these dead numbers really makes me hard to muster an opinion. Yep, on these games. It's a lot easier when we're working closer to key numbers. I feel like I can make a better gauge of it public same way we're seeing fifty four percent on the Falcons.
My gut tells me this is one of the lowest bet games on the board because it's hard to have an opinion on two one and two teams that are disappointing. Titans get up Week one, they crush the Browns on the road, Falcons in prime time they get away with that win against the Eagles, and then last week both these teams just lay major duds the Titans in primetime on Thursday Night Football. So I don't have much of
an opinion here. I think I slightly lean towards the Falcons just because of what their offense can do, and if there's a scenario where the Titans get into a negative game script, I have no clue how Marcus Mariota and the offense move the ball and compete. So just from that factor alone, I think I shade Falcons by the slimmest of march.
I can tell you how they'll compete. They'll have like seven minute drives, going really really slow and having no urgency whatsoever. Honestly, take exactly what you said, add the word ditto, and now you have my analysis. This is not a game. I completely agree. I don't think anybody's going to really be in on this game. I do not have a strong feeling about it. I'm a little worried that the Titans get the extra rest, you know that.
Ordinarily I think I might lean a little bit towards the Falcons, but with the extra rest, it just makes it something where I want to stay away and I just don't like it. I don't think it's gonna move because I don't think it's gonna be bet whatsoever. So if you have a feeling on this game, do whatever you want on this one. It's a stay away for me over both the over under and the spread. So I'm in complete agreement with you on that one. Redskins at Giants, here's a key number for you. Giants are
laying three. It could change depending on what happens. We're recording this just as the start of the Bears Redskins game, so it could change depending on what happens in the game, if there's a big injury or something. But as of right now, Redskins at the Giants, the Giants are laying three and the over under is at forty seven and a half yeah.
Betting pros, you guys are showing plus three minus one fifteen, So it looks like there's some action on the Washington professional football team. Honestly, I'm surprised that there wasn't more of an overreaction to Danny Dimes coming in yesterday and playing savior with two rushing touchdowns in that eighteen point comeback against the Buccaneers. I thought that this might be a half point heavy in the Giants direction, but I guess books are just afraid of sharp money piling in
getting that free half point. This seems like a fair line. Honestly, I have to see what Washington does tonight against at home in primetime, against an offense that I personally dislike in the Bears, and it's not so much about the philosophy. I think Matt Nagy can be a great coach and great coordinator in this league, great offensive play caller, but
they're just so limited in what Trubisky can do. So I think there's an opportunity tonight for Washington to look like a professional football team perhaps, and I think that we might see tonight's result affect this line, like if the Bears go in and destroy the Washington Professional football team. I think we could see this line climb because there's so much public sentiment right now for Danny Dimes. So
if you're liking the dog here, I would wait. I don't think it's going to move in the other direction.
So, no, the public is going to hammer the Giants on this. They're going to unless the Redskins come out and look amazing against the Bears, they're gonna I mean, they're gonna hammer it. But the books know that, right, And so the fact that I agree with you completely, the fact that it was set at three and it didn't you know that struck me, as man, You're gonna get so much public money on the Giants, which makes me think that that's what they want, and that's sort of where it's gonna be.
I agree.
If you like the Redskins in this game, you can wait. It's not dropping below three. I can't imagine that. And I think it's gonna be a bit heavily on the Giants, given what they were able to do yesterday, given how much better their offense looked, even without Saquon Barkley. Of course, he's out for anywhere from four to maybe eight weeks, so you know, Wayne Gollman is not going to scare anybody there, but I don't really think it matters. It's
all about Jones. So I think that the Giants, even with the Barkley injury, are still going to get hammered here. And if you like the Redskins, you can probably wait it out. Bucks at Rams, Rams laying nine and a half over under at fifty one and a half, what are your thoughts there?
Last week I put my SpongeBob SquarePants and told everybody on the pod that I don't care if the Rams are getting ninety percent of the tickets. I really like the spot against the Browns, and this line is heavy, but it's not off the look ahead A lot look ahead was nine, so we're seeing a half point move here,
which to me is quite surprising. The Buccaneers embarrassed at home, Danny Dimes comes in destroys them, They miss a last second kick that Bruce Arians purposefully made longer by getting a delay of game penalty, and then prime time supposed I mean, he could just be saying that to protect this guy, and then we see the Rams in primetime. I mean, it wasn't pretty, but they went out and they took care of business on the road as massive public road favorites, so they cashed. I mean the ticket.
The line to cash tickets last night in Vegas must have been one hundred yards long, and they don't move the line at all, which is a bit weird to me. I thought that this was going to be double digits, and dare I say, I think there is a modicum of value in laying the points with the Rams here. I think Jameis Winston is just that bad and the backbreaker turnover is always in his pocket at any moment in these games.
Absolutely. I mean, golf plays much better at home. It's pretty clear with that. And they still have a strong defense. I don't know this line feels right to me. I think keeping it between nine and ten is around where you want to be. Because the Bucks, I guess, I don't know what to necessarily make of their defense, because they looked really strong against the Panthers, and not just because Newton couldn't throw the ball at all.
They look strong.
They've added some pieces there, Todd Bowles was doing some work, but they looked terrible. They couldn't stop Daniel Jones even without Saquon Barkley, So I don't really know what to do with this. For me, I don't really see great value in this line. I don't think it's going to move. I think it's going to either be nine or nine and a half. So if it's at nine and a half now and you like the Bucks, I would probably get now. I can't see it hitting the key number
of ten or anything like that. But it's a line that I don't really have a good feel for. Certainly the Rams. You know, I expect them to win, but nine and a half it's a big number, and they haven't really been just just blowing everybody out. They won the Saints game big, but that was much more on the fact that Teddy Bridgewater came in and they couldn't really do anything offensively. So for me, nine and a half it's about right. It's a game that I don't
have a great feel for. You see a little value saying in the Rams just.
The tiniest fit. What I'm surprised is, and this is more of a philosophical question, is that books, especially now that there's more regulated mobile betting internet betting in the United States, is one things books do is they limit the amounts that sharps can bet to limit their liability.
Yep.
And my question is how high does this RAMS number have to be and any of these numbers on the board for the public to just stop piling, Like, at what number is your regular Joe that fires up his app on Sunday morning fifteen minutes before kickoff trying to rush bets in. At what number? Does he look at the RAMS and say, oh, I'm not going to bet that, or even worse, I'm going to bet the other stuff.
Do you think there is a number that gets a lot of public action here on the RAMS?
I think so, yeah. I think I think the Rams are just going to the public's just going to see a team that played really good and a Buccaneers team that got embarrassed by Danny Dimes, and the Rams are gonna, yeah, They're going to receive sixty seventy percent of the public bets.
Interesting. Okay, see, I'm not as convinced. You might be right for sure, But in the end, although the Bucks were embarrassed, they should have won that game. And although you know, they put up a ton of points and Mike Evans went nuts and Winston looked much better and the Rams. Although they won, they were decent play calling away from going to overtime in that game against the Browns team that has not looked good, as we discussed, and that really all the money was on the Rams.
I don't think people are coming out of gaming like, yeah, Glad, I bet on the Rams. I felt so comfortable that entire game, even though every single person did so for me, I'll be interested. I'm going to check back in this on the Thursday show to see how the public and how the sharps really have been coming in. But I would expect it to be between fifty and sixty percent, probably leaning slightly on the Rams, but it's an interesting question, so I will certainly check in on that. Let's move
on to the Seahawks at the Cardinals. The Seahawks are laying four and a half. I believe the look aheadline might have been three, so it's moved a little bit and the over under at forty seven. How you feel in there?
Yeah, we're back to normal. And the Cardinals, right, they're really bad football team that should be home dogs. Last week, it was just so strange to see the overreaction to the Cam Newton injury. Cardinals minus three at home just didn't make very much sense whatsoever, And of course they lose outright to Kyle Allen and the Panthers. That being said,
this is where I'm more comfortable taking the Cardinals. And what's interesting about the Seahawks this season is that they're off to a very slow start this year and it's due mostly to their secondary not playing up to par. This week was interesting obviously with the defensive touchdowns scored by the Saints, but there have been some plays in
the secondary. You go all the way back to Week one where the Bengals, I mean, Andy Dalton just walks into centry Lincoln is just slinging the ball down the field, and that's a Bengals offense that coming out of that game, I thought I had to make some adjustments. I thought Zach Taylor, you know, was the real member of that Sean McVay coaching tree. I thought the Bengals were gonna come out and move the rock and they have not
been able to do anything since then. And if the Seahawks have this poor of a secondary, being four and a half point favorites on the road against a team like the Cardinals that are going to go out and throw forty or fifty times. It's going to make this game a bit more competitive. This last week is interesting, Kyler. For forty three attempts to only have one hundred and seventy nine yards four yards in an attempt is pretty horrid,
to say the least. But I think in the long run, the more they press the edges, the more they throw with that type of frequency. I mean, obviously just the more points they're going to score. And I just think four and a half is way too much for the Hawks to be laying in the spot.
Yeah, it strikes me as high, although I'm not exactly sure I'd feel comfortable necessarily going in on the Cardinals here. I don't know which way this is going to move from now. As I said, it's moved a bit since it opened. I mean, the Seahawks, you're right, and they've been playing a ton of base defense. They basically they know their secondary is sort of their weakness, and they're just basically like, we're selling out to stop the run.
We're leaving all our linebackers out there, and we'll see what you can do, and if you can beat us with the pass, go ahead. And they have been their defense is not nearly as strong as it once was. But they're coming off a kind of an embarrassing loss here, and they're gonna be mad, and they're coming in against a Cardinals team that again has no secondary whatsoever. They're
missing both their top two cornerbacks. And I think Murray has followed the same script where he comes out and he looks really good because it's all been scripted for him, and once you get past the first fifteen or sixteen or seventeen plays that have been scripted for him, he just kind of loses it and he just is running around as he can be. The four and a half makes me a little nervous. I agree with you. It's not a game that I have a good feel for.
Sounds like you see a little bit of value right now in the Cardinals. For me, it's not something where I want to get close to. And I think this line could move. I think the public's going to come in a little heavier on the Seahawks. I think that they probably like them, and they're going to buy the hole. They're going to be mad narrative, and the Cardinals look terrible.
So my guess is if it moves at all, it's going to move to five, but I think four and a half is around where you're going to be sitting, and I don't have a great feel for it based on how these two teams have played so far.
Yeah, I'm seeing eighty three percent on the Hawks. The Betting Pros dash says minus one fifteen minus one eleven on the Hawks, So it's definitely leaning in that direction. So if you like me like the Cardinals, then yeah, perhaps waiting is the right tactic, even though, like we said earlier, four and a half to five dead numbers. But still those half point values can really help out in the long rue. Yep. Absolutely.
Now, before we finish up with our last few games, I wanted to remind everyone about our septem contest to be entered. All you need to do is leave a review for the show on iTunes or Stitcher and send a screenshot of your review to contest at bettingpros dot com. We're giving away and autographed Alvin Kamara helmet. It takes two seconds, you support the show, and you've got a great chance to win an autographed helmet, so don't waste time. All right, let's move on to the vikings that the Bears.
The Bears here are laying two and a half and the over under is at a minuscule thirty nine. The Bears are playing right now. Obviously could change, but initial thoughts on that you talked about.
Jared Goff just now, and one of the philosophies that we lean on at Gridiron Gamble is that bad quarterbacks really show home road splits, and Kirk Cousins objectively bad quarterback. We've seen two weeks where the Vikings get out into great positive script at home in the Dome, they get the defense going, and they get to neuter Kirk Cousins as much as possible. He had nine pass attempts at
that first game, even yesterday twenty one attempts. And this is the type of football that the Minnesota Vikings want to play. They want to get out, get the lead, and run the football well. At two and a half and maybe even three. If the Bears win convincingly tonight, that means this game is probably going to be more neutral, which means Kirk Cousins is probably gonna have to throw the ball more frequently, and on the road at Chicago, that's not a good equation for Minnesota. So short of
a field goal. I definitely have to lean for the Bears here, and unfortunately I don't know how long we're gonna get it short of this number. But at this time I like the minus two and a half.
Yeah, I'm inclined to agree. I don't love it. I don't love it just because Man Trubisky has been awful. Just watching him. Hopefully he shows something tonight while we're recording, but he has just been terrible. He looks like he's regressed. But that defense, I agree. I mean, the Vikings have a pretty simple formula. They want to run it and they've got a one full zone blocking scheme. They've got one of the best running backs in football. It's been
highly successful. They want to pick their spots to throw it. I think ideally they want cousins at about twenty pass attempts, but you can see this being defensive.
Shrugt.
Look the over under at thirty nine. I'm not really sure, you know, I kind of lean the under at this point. I mean, I'd have to take a closer look a little bit and see how the Bears look tonight, but I think it is going to be kind of a close game. But I would expect in the end the Bears to win it because they're home, and since it's under the key number of three, I two would lean Bears, but I'm not sure I feel overly strongly about just
because I need to see it. Hopefully, when I go back and watch Monday night's game, Trubisky looks better, but he's just looked so terrible that it's tough to see them putting up points as well. But I do see a close game here, low scoring and probably the Bears eating out, which is why would lean the Bears to it, Because once it's below three, it doesn't really matter all that much in the end, So I too, like you,
lean Bears two and a half. Jaguars at Broncos. Bronco's here laying three and the over under is at thirty seven and a half. I don't think this has moved since I look aheadline unless I missed it. So what are your thoughts?
There another game where I thought the market was going to address the love affair for a new quarterback. I don't know how many group text im in where there's pictures of Gardner Minshew in Jeort's Gardner Minshew wearing some crazy Washington state shirt, the mustache, the headband, and the public is showing this in their betting batterns. Currently seventy four percent of the bets are on the Jags plus three at Mile High. I really thought that they were going to open this up at minus two and a
half and not give the public that full three. But despite all of that public action, Broncos minus three is showing minus one fifteen right now in the betting pros portal. I think they're going to be the right side. Look, I don't love Joe Flacco. I think this offense is about as bad as you can get. But I do love this Broncos defense. And while the first three weeks have not been great for Chub and Miller, their names
have not been called. I have to believe that regression is Regression is coming for a Vic Fangiou defense, and one of the best medicines that could be coming in to remedy that is a backup quarterback on the Jacksonville Jaguars. So I think the Broncos minus three is the right side here. I'm not in love with it, but I definitely think that this line could maybe be three and a half. It's just a tough place to play, and I still believe in fanjo and how organized this defense can be.
I completely agree that I was shocked that it didn't open below three, because again, yeah, the public's is gonna hammer the Jaguars right now. Gardner Minshew is basically a walking meme and the public loves it. Just to look at him, he's been exciting. I kind of like what I see from him. Generally. I agree that I like the Broncos side of this right now. It makes me a little nervous that the Jaguars get the minibi, you know, because they played on Thursday. The extra rest, the extra
time to game plan. For me, really, even though it is minuscule, it might be the lowest over under that we've seen all year at thirty seven and a half. I still like the under on this one for basically all the reasons that you say. The Jaguars defense looked much better against the Titans. That's not saying all that much against the Marcus Mariota led offense, but they did look good. Jalen Ramsey apparently called the sick to practice today, so I don't know whether or not there's something If
he really has the flu, that's fine. Hopefully he'll be fine. If he's sort of doing something with his trades and he's out of there, then that would be problematic. But their defense looked really good. The Broncos defense looks fine passball. They've had some tough matchups. I think at home they're
going to be good. So even at the minuscule number of thirty seven and a half, I like the under as an initial read, and I agree if I'm forced to pick a side here, I don't love it like you, but I would I would lean towards the Broncos minus three. This next one is a little surprising to me. This is the Cowboys at the Saints right now. The Cowboys on ours are laying two and a half, and I think the look aheadline three. So I am shocked by
that over under was forty five and a half. I expected the line because the Cowboys are such a public team and they wound up beating the Dolphins handily in the end, that the spread would move the other directions. I'm a little surprised to drop to two and a half. What's your thoughts on.
This interesting I think I was very proud of how the market reacted to the Breeze injury last week. In my initial capping, I thought the Hawks were going to be pretty large favorites in that game. But just like when the Colts lost luck, I believe their Week one game against the Chargers, the line only moved three points. We saw the same move last week when Breeze went down, which traditionally, I feel like historically and even in recent history,
we see quarterbacks go out. I mean even with the Steelers we saw a massive move from Big Ben to Rudolph. This line only moved three points when Breeze went out. And the Saints, like I said, they scored two defensive touchdowns, but they kind of showed out Teddy Bridgewater looked competent. You being a Jets fan, you know, we watched every snap last year of Teddy two gloves in the Green and white, and he looked like a very competent player. I was a bit sad to see him go to
New Orleans. So we got Luke falk Man, I mean we did, We did Getawazi States on Luke falk I was kind of interested that this line didn't move a little more aggressively in the Saints direction, because still while the Cowboys are a public team. The Saints are just as public as a side, and they've they've printed for the public over these these I mean this decade for the most part with Sean Payton. So yeah, I thought this game would be closer, a little closer to pick.
But I understand why given up the look aheadline, like you said, was three. I understand why the line didn't move more towards the equal number. But I'd like to hear you must love the Cowboys than if you're getting than if you're giving less than a few.
I don't love the Cowboys necessarily. I lean towards the Cowboys, I really do, But in the end, I think I was just more surprised. It's not necessarily what I think it should be. I just think when you're looking at how it's going to be, bet I would have expected. Now that you know they're in New Orleans, that is a very, very difficult place to play. The Cowboys are still down Michael Gallup, but they don't really need that
right now. They're clicking on all cylinders. Kellen Moore led offense is doing great, and look, you give Sean Payton a week to prepare for anybody, and that's why I picked the Saints with the four and a half against the Seahawks on last Thursday. But at this point, I don't know. I don't have a strong lean on it. I'm just I'm very surprised that money isn't coming in heavily on the Cowboys. I think the number of about three is about right. I don't know if I take
it necessarily. Again, I lean Cowboys, but in New Orleans it's tough, and forty five and a half seems like the right thing for me. But for right now, I lean Cowboys. But you know, really, for me, it's much more about what I expected to see the number at, and I expected to see the number closer to like four. So we'll see where it ends up. But in the end, it's probably going to be right around three. And right now again it's at two and a half and it's
moved down from three. Let's get to our last game here, Bengals at the Steelers. Steelers laying four, the over under is at forty three and a half. How do you feel about that?
The battle of zero to three teams? You're welcome, espn uh Man Mason Rudolph stunk yesterday and as someone who had the Steelers on their Super Contest card. I wanted to feel good about that game, and I'm obviously happy that we did get the cover. But Steelers offense was about as bad as it gets. And credit to the Niners defense. They put a lot of both free agency and draft capital into their defensive line and they're starting to get after it, especially against a very good front
five from the Steelers. But I was very unimpressed from what I saw about Mason Rudolph and perhaps the quote unquote overreaction that I noted about Big Ben might have been warranted, which again is something that Rufus pointed out last week. Sixty percent on the Steelers. The Bengals, man, are they a bad team, but but they showed that they're competitive. They could have easily laid down against the
Bills this week. The Bills were kind of destroying them in the trenches despite the score being low, and the Bengals found a way to claw back, fight back into this game. And I don't know, I don't think we should just be giving Mason Rudolph a point against another NFL team at this time. So me personally, I think the four is a little bit heavy and I think I have to lean Bengals.
In this agree. I lean towards the Bengals at this point. If it stays at four, I could see it being one of my super contests. And I looked into this because the Bengals getting six from the Bills was one of my super contest picks from this past week, and I looked into it before. I can't remember what the exact number was, but the Bengals have been very solid against the spread over the last several years. I can't remember exactly what the number was, but they generally have
played well on the road. I don't know why necessarily getting away from Cincinnati, but they are usually good for a cover and I agree. I mean, Mason Rudolf, you pointed out the forty nine ers have a surprisingly solid defense, so I want to give them some credit here. But I was very disappointed watching that effort. And again one of the touchdowns was just a long catch and run that Juju Smith Schuster broke off, so he was not
in any way impressed in that game. I see this as being a three point game either way, so it's come down. So with that in mind, I like the Bengals. It is a divisional game. You never know what's going to happen. Those are always a little scary to bet. But the forty three and a half that strikes me is about right. But I agree with you that I leaned toward the Bengals here because I expect this to be a game that's going to be decided by three points, so I will gladly take the four, so I don't
expect it to move again. I think you mentioned that the public is a little bit shade on the side of the Steelers at this point. I think you said sixty percent, and I would expect that to continue, So I think if you like the Bengals, there's no rush on it. Maybe it gets to four and a half, but in the end I agree that that's that's where i'd probably lean like you.
I actually think we should be pulling the trigger now on the Vocals. It's minus one seventeen, and I think the sharp money will be on Cincinnati, so I do think we could see a slight reverse line move off of that four to three and a half, So all right, it might be some value in grab.
All right, you heard it. Then with Rich we both like that game, so if you like it, go ahead and move now. Well, that is going to do it for today's show. Buddy, it was great having you on. I hope we can do it again during the season. Yeah, pleasure would love to great. Thanks again to the sponsor of today's show, bet MGM. Remember to download the bet MGM Sports app and use the promo code Harris to get your risk free first wager of up to five
hundred dollars. Don't forget to rate and review the podcast and send a screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com for your chance to win a signed Alvin Kamara helmet. We'll be back later this week giving some of our best bets for Week four and look to keep building on our winning street. I'll talk to you then.