Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. It is time to talk about our best bets for Week four of the NFL season. And back again to do it with me is Pat Fitzmorris. Find him on Twitter at fits underscore ff. Pat was here earlier this week. He's not officially my new co host or anything like that. He is pinchinitting today. Our guest had a little bit of a conflict. Pat. Thank
you for bin chitting on short notice. I appreciate it.
My pleasure. Dan, Happy Week four to you.
Yes, I'm excited. I'm ready to get into this. I feel pretty good about my three picks today and we'll talk about it. But I did get your picks in advance. You did take one of mine. It's a gross pick. I really look forward to bringing it down a little bit. But you guys know how we do this. We just give our three best to the weekend, either spreads or over unders or even moneyline if we want, and then
we'll quickly run through the remaining spread. Before we do it, let me remind you about the latest offer from BETMGM. New customers bet five dollars win one hundred dollars on any NFL game if either team scores a touchdown. Okay, so it doesn't have to be the team you bet on, but five dollars in either team win one hundred if either one scores a touchdown. That's pretty much going to happen. That is code Juice one hundred. I've mentioned this before.
That is our podcast, The Daily Juice, hosted by Matt Parral. Again, the code is Juice one hundred New customers at bet MGM, All right, let's get into it. We're going to basically use our consensus lines over at bettingpros dot com that gives you the aggregate of what is available in the market. There are some disparities obviously between books, which maybe we'll note if we do. You can fade or follow us or do whatever you want. Very briefly, let me run
through what happened last week. Our guest at the Good News for You Pat is that the bar is incredibly low. Based on our last guest, Alex Kiloj from the Action Network actually missed on all three of his favorite bets. They were the Jaguars Cardinals over fifty two, the Bucks minus one against the Rams and the Browns and the Bears over forty two. I believe or maybe I was wrong on that, but regardless, he did miss it because that didn't come anywhere close. I hit on two of
the three. I had the Jets Broncos under forty one and a half, which was to me a one of my favorite bets that I've made so far this year. The Titans minus five to the Colts. I did miss on the Eagles plus three and a half to the Cowboys. I completely and utterly misread that game absolutely like that was actually one of my favorite bets coming into the week. So hopefully we'll do better. Bat, you get to kick us off any bet you want on the board.
Go ahead, all right, Dan, I'm gonna take the Jets plus seven at home against the Titans, because who should the Titans be favored against on the road by seven points. I don't really think anyone in the NFL. I don't know. I feel like people are kind of misreading their two wins, like the Colts are not a good team. That's not a quality win, and they did have after a bad start. Their one decent win was against Seattle, although I think that Seattle defense is a lot worse than people realize.
And you know, once they got it going, they look pretty good in that game. But I just don't think they're necessarily good enough to beat the Jets by more than a touchdown on the road. So I think the Jets are maybe, like, I know, things have not gone well. I know they haven't been able to keep the pass rush off. Zach Wilson, maybe you can talk me out of this, Dan, if anyone can, it's you. But you know, and I think the Jets defense is actually pretty decent.
And you know, I don't think Sala is going to be one of these guys who has to wait five six weeks weeks for his first win. I think it's going to happen sooner rather than later.
Would you take them on the money line? I should look at what the what the odds are here. I'll talk about my opinions on this game in a second.
But yeah, probably plus one.
Oh it's more than that. It depends on the blook five.
Oh yeah, you're in something on that as well.
Yes, if you are going for the Jets, you are probably going down the wrong road. But it's fine. This actually, Pat, I said one of the bets I was going to take with you. This is actually the bet, and I know it's ridiculous. And again, everybody knows I am a Jets fan, but everybody knows I'm sure I'm not a Jets homer. It's impossible to be one. Actually, and I've kind of been buying the Titans team from the basically below what I think is their actual value, the perception
in the market. I think it's been a little low because of that first game against Arizona when they look terrible. Week two, I had them getting I think it was five and a half against the Seahawks. Week three, again, as I mentioned, I had them laying the five to the Cults. Last week against the Cults, it was a little more fading the Colts. As you sort of mentioned that it was buying the Titans. The reason why I also like the Jets in this game. I liked it
at seven and a half. Obviously, now that it's not the seven, not quite as appealing. But there are a couple of reasons. Number one, let's not gloss over the fact that the Titans are probably gonna have no wide receivers in this game. Right, Aj Brown is almost certainly not going to play. The latest on Julio pat On, I mean it sounds like he's not gonna play, right, he mispracticed with a hamstring injury. Right, We're not expecting him to go at this point, are we? Yeah?
I mean he was just like I don't know if there was an injury, but they said he tightened up in the fourth court and they have not let him practice all week. So, like, I think Aj is definitely not going to play and probably trending that way with Julio two.
Right, So who are we looking at it? Their number one wide receiver? Is it Westbrook? Akina? Like? Is that what we're actually going with at this point?
Yeah? You know, Josh Reynolds, Who am I forgetting Chester Rogers.
It's just not an offense that's going to be able to pass the ball up and down the field. And again, their scheme isn't doesn't work quite as well without Arthur Smith, and so it's gonna be a lot of running. I don't despise the under in this game either, but it's gonna be a lot of Derek Henry and you mentioned it. The Jets defense a collection of you know haves and have nots. Mostly have nots has actually played a lot better that like, their whole is greater than the some
of their parts, if that makes sense. And where they really struggle is the secondary where they're playing absolute no names. But again, you've got now if Brown and or Julio Jones, we're gonna be healthy for this game. I might have a different opinion, but without them you just don't have to worry about it all that much. So it's gonna be a ton of Derek Henry and I expect them to win the game, but I don't think they're gonna
be able to put up a ton of points. Conversely, I think the Jets, like they have looked at terrible. I completely admit that their offensive line is abysmal. I completely get that, but they're not completely devoid of playmakers. You know, the scheme is okay. I expect Corey Davis to have a big game. I actually pat I did a video for bettingpros dot com. One of my five player prop bets was Corey Davis over his receiving yards, which I think I can't remember what it was, forty
eight and a half something like that. I think Cory Davis has a big game here again playing Denver. In Denver, I knew that game was going to be terrible for the Jets. I really did. Like you know, they weren't getting anything going. The Patriots have a pretty solid defense. This is a game I think that the Jets are
going to be able to put up points. So not a ton of points, but I think they'll be able to keep it close enough where I think if you're getting the touchdown, certainly, if any seven and a half's are out there, those look to be gone. In the market, the consensus is seven, but it's all seven up and down the line. I would definitely go for it if you have the hook. But either way, this was the one I was going to take bad. Oddly enough, the ugly Jets game is the one I was going to get.
And I forgot that you were a Jets fanda. Believe it or not. I was not merely pandering.
To you with that pick.
But yet you I'm glad you mentioned the receivers in my battling. That was a big part of it, because I mean, if you've got a j Brown and Julio Jones and then you're picking on this young cornerback group that has what between the six guys like two years of NFL sperience. You know, if it's like Ecoles trying
to guard aj Brown, I mean different story. But yeah, with guys like Westbrook, Kakina and Reynolds and Chester Rogers, like, you're not going to be able to do as much damage with that Moley assortment of who's the who's who of Titans backup receivers.
Yeah. So I just think it's going to be a closer game. And again, I do think that the Jets offense is going to look at least a little more competent. They played three tough defenses in a row here, so I think, again, I think this is something that's going to be close. I do like that you're taking them on the money line. You're very clearly a Jets fan. It's fine. I will take your Packers then, and we
will we will do an even swap. Totally found me, all right, So for my first game, I'm actually going with a total and it's the Ravens and the Broncos under forty five and a half. There are a lot of reasons why I like this game. Under First of all, both teams generally play slow, and I think that's something always that I look at with the total as I look at the pace of play, they both play slow. Generally, they both run the a ton that's gonna just naturally
bleed the clock. The Broncos are three and oh so far to the under. I mentioned that I was taking them last week against the Jets with the under that hit very easily here, and I think that even just generally taking what they look like overall, there are some injury concerns here that I think also lend themselves to the under. Another number one, Lamar Jackson, is banged up in this game. He took a shot in the last game,
his back has been bothering him. So I think for the most part, you're gonna see it a little under control. And oddly enough, both these teams take shots down the field like there are two of the teams that have actually taken the most shots down the field. I think that's gonna change a little bit for both in this game, in part because Lamar Jackson is injured. In part, I think the kJ Hamler injury pat is a little bit underrated in terms of what it means for the offense.
Not so much Hamdler's production, but Hamler in his ability to at least stretch the field opens up lanes. I think for Sutton and for Patrick, who don't really have that top end speed. Without that, I think it's just gonna be very, very difficult for any really explosive plays to happen for the Broncos. So it strikes me as a game of like slow methodical drives here, where you know, it's a lot of dinking and dunking. And I think
the Broncos obviously defensively are very good in Denver. By the way I talked about this as well, that I really think early in the season in Denver road teams in particular, they just have trouble acclimating for the first month, first four games usually where I like it because of the thin air, and I think they're just not conditioned enough to get there. At the Baltimore defense getting a
little healthier, this strikes me as a slugfest. Pat I lean towards the Ravens, who I think are getting a point and a half at this point, but I'm not willing to take that. I do think, though, however, it's going to be a slug fest. It's going to be a slow, drawn out game, and I lean towards the underhare at forty five and a half.
Yeah, I'm with you. I am actually in a bizarre pool where I have to beat the Ravens games side and total every week. And I did. Yeah, it's thirty two people, and you are drawn an NFL team and oh wow, I have to pick their games every week. Yes, my friend, maybe our mutual friend Michael Beller of the Athletics runs this one. Yeah, and yeah, it's kind of a crazy team. I drew the Ravens.
Yeah, they're getting a point. Well, what's funny. Yeah, they're getting a point. But it's all over the place. Actually, depending on the book, the consensus line is getting a point. Vandal has them giving a point, fox Ben has them getting half a point. So it's a little all over the place.
Yeah, I think I got up. I took Denver at home getting a point.
Okay, yeah, that's what the consensus line is. So you take Denver in this game. If you had to pick a side on the spread.
I did. I did. I took me under. I just don't I don't think the Ravens are quite the same same team that they would have been pre uh Gus Edwards and and Marcus Peters like those were two big blows for them. I just think that kind of you know up below to each side of the ball, that you know, maybe kind of took away a little bit of their underpinnings.
Yep. Well, if you're going with any side in the Broncos game, head covers usually decide to go on so out right, I can't there, but I would. I would lean and again if they're getting a point, if they're giving a point, irrelevant, but I would probably go with the Ravens personally in this game. That's not one of my official pick. My only official pick is the under
forty five and a half points. Again, this is about this, you know, when I looked at all the games, I didn't you know, as the Lions pat to me get a little sharper going forward, Like there are a few real edges that sort of stick out to me. But this one is a game that I see really coming in it like closer to like the forty two you know mark for me anyway, So I will go with that. Let's go to your second pick. Who do you got?
All right? So I like the over in the Kansas City Philadelphia game, which is at fifty four. So I think we saw Philadelphia run the ball with their running backs three times in their Monday night game against the Cowboys. Like I don't know if that's going to be an every week thing. There might be a great outcry to establish the run this week, but I kind of think that not the way they want to play. Their defense
didn't look especially good. I think that we are due to see a more mistake free game from Patrick Mahomes and I think we talked about this earlier. Dan, the Kansas City defense is bad, Like people don't realize how bad it is. They are per the Football Outsiders DVOA Metric, dead last both against the run and the pass. They have the daily double for worst defense in both facets of the game. So yeah, I think these two teams might race up and down the field a little bit.
And even though I generally kind of like to stay away from any overs above like fifty two and a half fifty three, unless it's you know, two teams that I really think, you know something like we said the Mexico City game a couple of years ago, where I was being confident in the over in that one. Sure, you know, generally I don't love grabbing onto those, but this one I think is going to race pretty quickly.
So do you have I mean, talk to me a little bit about because casey defense stinks, as we have talked about it, really it really does. And I don't think that you know, casual betters have really gotten there yet.
But do you feel confident then that, you know, regardless of how bad they are, that the Eagles that looked like the most inept offense you know, I'd ever seen basically are going to be able to take advantage of it, you know, I guess probably in a way where they have to most likely keep up with Kansas City, right.
So yeah, I think they are going to have to at least pay lip service to the running game a little more, and I think that's kind of how they should play, at least to maybe set up the play action for Hurts a little bit. I mean, their first few series the other day were like interception. I think on the first series two three and outs. Then maybe on their fourth series, I think they attempted their first run and got like a twenty four yard game for Miles Sanders, and.
Then you know, maybe around them again, Yeah.
Maybe it hurts run after that, and then to two incompletions and another pond. I mean like they have to go about this a little bit differently, and I think they will, And I'm still pretty pro Hurts. Actually, I don't think he is the type of like versatile run pass weapon who can do a lot of damage to a defense like Kansas City's.
Well, I'm glad I'm not the last person on the Jalen Hurts bandwagon. I will stick with you, all right, all right, So that's I mean it is. It's a high tuntal. It's fifty four I see to fifty four and a half in a lot of places, So it's gonna be a game. But rooting for offense is certainly always better. Let's get ugly. Let's continue to get ugly.
Man.
You took one New York team. I think I'm gonna take the other New York team. Technically, neither one of these is New York teams, obviously, as my father was used to say, they're both New Jersey teams. And there is one New York team and it is the Buffalo Bills.
But I'm going to take the other New Jersey team and it's the Giants getting seven and a half points from the same It's you know, I feel like when I'm taking these games and I look at it and I'm like, I think there's a little bit of value here. It's always on these terrible teams that I'm just like, all right, I gotta hold my nose and sort of do it. But here's where I go. Everything about this just strikes me as a spot to take the Giants.
There are a lot of reasons, not to be clear, Like when you look at it, I mean, this is the Saints' first real home game, right because they weren't home obviously in Week one, so I'm sure the crowd is going to be fired up. I don't expect Darius Slayton or Serling Shepherd to play in this game. Neither one has practiced so far this week, as we record that Blake Martinez is already out, their offensive line is injured.
But I think in part I'm fading the Saints a little bit because, like, I know, they beat the Packers pat but obviously you're a Packers fan. That just struck me as much more about the Packers coming into that game in Florida, maybe having trouble with the heat, not really knowing what to expect, and just not bringing their a game as opposed to the Saints putting up this
dominant performance. They look terrible in the second game against the Panthers, and I know they beat the they beat the Patriots handily in this last game, but you know, that game could have pretty easily gone the other way. I mean, if John Smith doesn't hand the other team in interception, Jamis kind of threw the ball up in the end zone there for a touchdown. Like that game was not totally dominated by the Saints in the way
that the final score sort of suggests. I mean, you look at Winston, He's averaging one hundred and twenty nine passing yards per game, Like that's crazy. The total is forty two, by the way, So I feel like, you know, I talked about this so the last week too. When you have such a low total and you have a big spread, like something doesn't really work there in my opinion usually, and so I don't really think that the
Saints are going to cover here. And really, when you look kind of historically, especially with Daniel Jones, it is kind of where this is kind of where Daniel Jones comes out with a big one, right. A movie saw him obviously against Washington in that game. Stinks at home, but on the road he somehow is always covers ten and four in his career against the spread on the road. Winston is not good as a favorite generally speaking. Their offensive line is tough, that Armstead is going to be out.
This just feels like a letdown spot for the Saints off that big win. The Giants are absolutely desperate to try to stay into it. I think given the lack of wide receivers, they're going to design some runs for them. They're gonna get Jennit Villes out. Takuon Barkley looks a lot healthier. So it's a gross but I'm getting over I feel over a touchdown here. I'm gonna hold my nose and take the Giants getting seven and a half from the Saints.
Yeah, so this is any interesting one. I join you in your doubts about the Saints offense for certain. I mean that's like, I don't know if they can continue to win this way with Jameis Winston throwing like twenty passes a game. I mean, this is the same Jameis Winston who led the NFL in passing attempts in twenty nineteen has suddenly turned into this you know, nineteen seventy six era game managing like quarterback. It's such a bizarre formula that's working for them. And I mean you mentioned
the Armstead injury. I mean that's a big blow to a team that at least had, if you know, not a lot of skill position talent other than Alvin Kamara, like did have that really good offensive line, and losing a very good left tackle as a blow for sure. The one thing that gives me pause here, Dan, is that that defense looks really legitimate. Yeah, like they they're deep, I mean, like you know, overcoming the Marcus Davenport injury
and stuffing a decent pass rush. And the other thing was that before I came on with you, I was looking at the Massy Peabody website and their power rankings. I was shocked to see New Orleans was second in their power rankings. And so I don't know, maybe they do buy into the offense, and maybe they do think this is a truly great defense, like the best in the NFL. I don't know, I do, but you know that gives me pause. Can Daniel Jones defeat a very
good defense. That yeah, that's probably why this would be. I don't necessarily like the same side of it. I do not, but I might. It might be a stay away from me.
I think totally fine. I do not expect the Giants to win this game, to be clearer, but I do think they're going to keep it close and again. And look, you know, Rufus Peabody is the best. Their stuff is fantastic when I've seen when I watched them play. Their defense is good. But it's just something where I don't know pat they and I know they've had injuries and they've just overcome it. It doesn't strike me as a total
lockdown unit for me. And I think, by the way, the Jamis version of himself, like the old Jamis wants to come out right. You kind of saw it against the Panthers, Like he's just like it's just like this charging bull that's like, just let me go, man, I'm ready, I'm ready to go. Just just give me the word. And I think like if something happens, if like he throws a pick or there's a funnel and they'll fall behind, he'll come out a little bit. So you're getting the
hook a little bit over the touchdown. I will take it, but it is ugly, and that's all bets. I feel like all good bets are ugly at this point. Let's get to your last one. When he got that, all.
Right, So the last one is Carolina plus four at Dallas. And for me, this is about two things. For one, it's that I legitimately believe in the Carolina offense and defense. Maybe the one thing that gives me a little bit of pauses the injury to j C. Horn, especially when you're going up against an offense that brings Ceedee Lamb and Amari Cooper and so that's a problem. Like Horn
was a good looking rookie. But what I really like about this game, Dan, is that Matt Ruhle and Joe Brady, two coaches I really believe in, will have had nine full days to prepare for this game going up against Mike McCarthy. Dan, As you mentioned, I'm a Packer fan, he's maybe a coach who I don't have the greatest degree of faith in on a short Yeah, so I'm
definitely playing the long week, short week thing here. And you know, I kind of think this should be more like a three point spread to begin with rather than the four.
Yeah, give me the.
Extra point and the work week differential, and I really like this one for the dog.
Yeah, there are a lot of four and a halfs now by the way out there, so it's moving even up in that direction. And it's not surprising. The Cowboys are a very public public sure now, I mean we assume Christian Gaffrey's out for this game, so that doesn't scare you off about it at all? No, no, okay, all right. Another guy who I bet a prop at on is Robbie Anderson this week. I know it's going to be gross, but check it out again. A video over at Betting Process.
Is this a squeaky wheel theory day?
Might be Mike be a little squeaky wheel, might be a little squeaky wheel. It also might be that I expect Diggs to kind of shadow DJ Moor and they don't have too many other places to go, and Dallas gives up a lot of high uh you know, explosive passing blazer. So yeah, there's a couple of reasons. But uh,
I won't I won't even give it away. YouTube dot Com slash betting pros coach check it out all right, So I you know, interesting Patty the mini buye versus the short Week and the Matt and Mike McCarthy, who
I similar fit. By the way, fun fun story. When Adam Gase was hired, I remember everybody asking me about it and being like, oh, do you want McCarthy because McCarthy was in the running, And I said, the reason why I would prefer Gas is because I think it's easier to move on from Gas than it is to move on from Mike McCarthy, because I think McCarthy comes with such a big mystique. So that was a point
in favor. And obviously we have moved on from Adam Gates and I expect McCarthy to coach the Cowboys for the next seven years, so that'll be fine. But yeah, I didn't have a great feel for it, just because realistically I think Cowboys, like they looked impressive in that game against the Eagles, and I realized it was a horrible Eagles game plan, but I think it was surprising to me how impressive they looked in that game, just so like I have almost a very very public sort
of a wow. Did not expect to see that I'm a little gun shy right now, you know, But I think if I had to take a side, I probably would take the four and a half because I take the points. But I agree with you that closer to a field goal probably does feel better either way. Though I'm staying away. I'm going to enjoy the rooting for you on it, though, I'm going to go to your team though. Here Pat, now I'm not gonna go with the spread. I'm going with the total though. Forty five
and a half I'm going under. Steelers against the Packers is another example of two teams that play slow. So again, forty five and a half, two teams that play slow, generally speaking, going up and this again, if you look, Mike Tomlin has been an NFL coach for a very long time, and I think like it's past narrative point to see what happens with Tomlin's team. I mean, Pat, when you bet on a Mike Tomlin team as like a favorite or a heavy favorite, he's almost always going
to let you down. They're almost never going to cover. But when you bet on him as an underdog, he gets that team up. That team plays better than you've ever seen when he gets points, and when he gets a lot of points, when it's the nobody believes in us thing, he can play up. So there's a reason enough on that side to bet them on the spread. But for me, I think what that means in this game is that the defense is going to get up and the defense is going to play really well, because
really they don't have the horses. You can rara all you want, you don't have the horses to have a dominant offensive game, especially with Deontay Johnson banged up. He was limited yesterday in practice. Juju Smith Schuster didn't practice yesterday. I don't know if either or both or neither is going to play in this game. So I think realistically though, I do think that the defense is going to get up for this game. Meanwhile, you've got the Packers. They
are coming off that monstrous win in that game. This is a prime sort of letdown spot for that offense coming into the game. So this strikes me as a game that the Steelers want to turn into a little bit of a slugfest because again, they don't have the offensive firepower to go toe to toe with the Packers. So I think they're going to want to kind of
slow the game down play with their defense. I think the Packers probably come out a little flat because that's what happens generally when you come off these giants and everything like that. So again strikes me as a close game. I would lean the Steelers. We'll talk about that in a bit as we run through all the games, probably
getting the six and a half points. But this strikes me as a close game classic like Mike Tomlin, keep the game close, get his team up, and keep under So under forty five and a half in this game is my play.
So I like that one a lot because the Packers are going to be continue to be without David Bacciari, who's come back a while longer, and also likely without Elkton Jenkins, who slides over from the left guard spot to left tackle to guard that blind set. Now, Jenkins did not play against the forty nine Ers, and I really expected the forty nine ers to get to Rogers
that game, and strangely they did not. They only sacked him once and they're you know, a few hurries, but for the most part, like they kept Rogers pretty clean, especially at key times. I don't know if that's going to be the case this week with Pittsburgh trying to get off the mat after that pad home loss to the Bengals. I mean, how many times have you seen the Steelers lose it home to the Bengals over the last couple of decades. I mean, that's an embarrassing loss
for them, and TJ. Watt trending toward playing yes my understanding, which is going to be a big problem for that Green Bay offensive line. So I do like your under call a lot here, and probably the side call too. As much as as I hate to admit it, it does look like kind of a trouble spot for the Packers.
Yeah. I don't want to take the Steelers right just because you watch them play pat and it's you know, just disgusting.
Right.
We talked about it jokingly, you know on our fantasy show that you've got a lot of you know, Ben Roethlisberger running for his life, running for his life and then getting off a three yard dumb pass to Nowgie Harris, especially if those receivers are injured. But again, this is the game. Tomlin's going to get up the defense. I think it's going to be a slug fest, and again I could see the Packers coming out a little flat here off that huge win. That's a lot of times
what happens. So we'll see about that. All right. So let's very briefly run through the picks. I will run them through again at the end, and then Pat and I are going to go through each of the spreads really quick, or the over runners, whatever you want, Pat, and we can talk about how we feel. You are taking the Jets getting seven from the Titans, the Panthers getting four from the Cowboys, and the Kansas City Chiefs
and Philadelphia Eagles over fifty four. I'm going to take yes, Phew, I got it, totally, totally got it right off the top of my head. Ravens and the Broncos are going under for me under forty five and a half. The Giants are getting seven and a half from the Saints, and the Steelers Packers also under forty five and a half. So I'm rooting for a lot of forty fours this week. All right, Patt, are you ready to go through each of the remaining games and make some bets. I'm going
to force you to pick aside. Ah, the Browns are laying to to the Vikings in Minnesota.
What do you think I would reluctantly take the home dog here, really reluctantly. Like I don't like betting Minnesota at home in these close games. It seems like more often than not the landing. But like, I do think the Browns might be a little overvalued off the Bears game and one of those things where they might be a little fat and happy, and I don't know if I expect them to win on the road.
Yeah, I uh, I think the Viking. I like, if I was forced to pick a side, it's definitely the Vikings getting to at home. And I thought about it, Pat, I thought about it for my pick. I really did, because I do think this is a spot to back the Vikings, to back Zimmer as that defense gets like a little more. Remember they had all these new players coming in and I know that, right, So I think like he gives Zimmer a little time, he's bound to
sort of find the cohesive unit. The offense looks really really good, and I do think it's a letdown spot here for the Browns. So I would agree with you. Any thoughts on the total of fifty one and a half.
At all, Yeah, I would probably play that under just because I think that the Browns want to play a little bit slow. They want to run the ball and play ball control.
So yep, I agree with you on that one. How about the Chiefs. We talked about the over under. How about the Chiefs laying seven on the road in Filmladelphia.
Oh, whenever I backed the Chiefs, I lose, So I'm taking the points with the home dog.
Yeah.
I just don't think the Chiefs are good enough to cover that sort of spread on the road.
Yeah, I think that that is fair. Okay, next game. How about we already talked about the spread for the Panthers and the Cowboys. What about the total at fifty one and a half? Any feelings on that?
Yeah, I mean that seems like a game that's capable of getting over. I mean, even though the Panthers defense has been really good and the Cowboys defense has been better than expected, But I do feel like we're going to see points in this one. I don't know, it's probably a pretty true line. I mean it would be to stay away from me.
I guess that's exactly how I feel. It's not a line that I want to go near if I'm forced to choose, Because I was like, whatever I'd probably go over, but it's not a line that I want to go on. Mentioned the Giants and the Saints. You know, I'm taking the Giants getting seven and a half. How about the total forty two? By the way, there's a lot of forty ones out there as well. There's you know, it's all over the place. What do you think?
We talked about it not really buying the Saints offense, and I sort of am buying the Saints defense. So I guess under Like I think this could be a real nails on chalkboard kind of game.
Yeah, yeah, it's gross and it's low. It's a really low total, But again, I think it's going to be a close game, and I think both teams are gonna have a little trouble scoring generally speaking. So I also lean for the under. And we talked about the Titans and the Jets there spread the total is forty four and a half. Any thoughts on.
That another one that I would probably play under. Yeah, yeah, I mean we know that the Jets are going to have a little bit of trouble moving the ball, even if it's against not a great defense, and the Titans are going to want to play slow especially with those receivers out.
Yeah, that's what I think. I think it's just sort of a lot of Derrick Henry, a lot of clock moving. I think under as well as the play was almost one of mine as well. But because you took the Jets and the spread, I was gonna let it go. Little Birdie told me that you have very specific feelings on our next game, and that is the Bears laying three now to the Lions in Chicago in the total of forty two.
Oh Dan, I so wanted to take the over in this game. I really wanted to take the over. I think that Lions secondary is just absolutely defenseless with Jeff Acuda and Melafan wu outs, and it was not a good secondary to begin with. They don't have the pass rush to like cover up for that deficiency. And I
think Fields is going to bounce back. We talked about this on the show, Like Matt Nagy may be a lame duck, but he's forty three, Like he wants to have a coaching career for another twenty twenty five years, and he after that debacle last week, is going to be coaching for his life. Like is he going to get another spot in the NFL. Or is he going to be like, you know, the offensive coordinator at the
University of Montana. So the thing that scares me off this, though Dan and I do think like the Bears, secondary has its vulnerabilities too. The thing that scares me away from this is that it is supposed to rain a lot in Chicago on Sunday. And I'm generally one who believes the weather effects thing is overstated a lot, except for you know, the crazy win games or like the heavy rain games. But this could be kind of a
heavy rain game. And the Chicago Park District, which keeps up the Soldier field turf has kind of a reputation for not doing the best job of it. It used to be really bad. I think they've gotten a little better, But yeah, I'm a little worried about field conditions and I just don't know if this game plays quite the way I thought it was going to if there's you know, a wet field and the slippery ball involved.
So yeah, well, so by the way you feel, you feel confident field is going to be under center, as it could be any one of three qbs. As we record this, Pat, I know.
That the mad Naggy thing another bit of brilliance for me, I am confident. I mean it would just be such a like, such an unpopular decision if he turned this.
This is the spot where you should allow fields to play against the Detroit Lions defense like that, right, see if you can bounce them back. So that's what I would do. Anyway. I will say that the consensus spread is three, but it is more books have it at three than any other thing. But there are a lot of books a two and a half. I like the Bears in this spot right. That was also something which I debated picking as well. I understand now the weather
is the weather. If it's bad, especially if the field is bad, that's an equalizer a little bit. But I get that the lines have played hard. That's great. They should have gotten destroyed by the Ravens last game. If Mark he'th Brown can hold on to you know, one of three touchdown basses, then they get blown out of the water. The Lions play hard, kudos to them, but this is the Bears, as bad as they have looked, are better team. And I think if you get it
on field goal in particular, I definitely like it. And there are a bunch out there right now. Points bet for example at two and a half, but even at three, I lean towards the Bears regardless. Let's go to Washington visiting the Falcons. The Falcons are getting a point and a half here at home, and the totals forty seven and a half.
It's crazy, Dan, but I really think this Washington team is like better than it's showed. It should have a pass rush. I don't understand why this is, according to DVOA, like the fourth worst defense in the league right now. It just seems like they have better personnel than that. So I think they're gonna pick it up on the defensive end. And I just don't think much of this Atlanta team, So you know I'll lay that point, even on the road with a team that's playing a backup quarterback.
Yep, I have already made this bet. Just to be clear, I have taken Washington. I am with you on this. Washington strikes me as a much better team than we've seen, even without Fitzpatrick. I think Taylor Heineke has been competent. One thing is that, like before recording this, I see Antonio Gibson might be dealing with an injury and didn't practice today, so I'm assuming that he's fine obviously, but that might make a difference a little bit. But either way,
I do think that that Washington wins this game. And obviously it's er point and a half, so I think they cover. So I am with you there. Colts are visiting the Dolphins. The Colts are getting two points. Total is forty two and a half.
Leaning the Dolphins here. Just yeah, this is a terrible game. I couldn't I couldn't play this either way. Like, if you forced me to pick a side, I'd probably go with the home team. But yeah, it's a stay away.
I want nothing to do with this game I can make. I mean, I can make a case for either either team.
I'm not sure I even want to watch it.
Oh no, we have to. It's our job watch that game. But I agree, it's just kind of going to be an ugly game. Both teams need to win right now, so you know, we'll see how it goes. But yeah, it's a desperate Colts team against the Dolphins team that you know, obviously without two don't know what they could do. So total stay away for me. How about again, these
Giants spreads? We talked about it on Monday. The Bills are laying sixteen and a half now, down from seventeen to the Texans at home, you know in Buffalo forty seven.
Over under if I so, yeah, I tend not to play these big lines, but I would probably play the Bills, believe they or not in this one. I just maybe it's another thing. Maybe I should be going the other way with the Texans, having had the nine full days of prep for this one, but I just kind of feel like it's not gonna work out well for them. They're just really overmanned, and this Bill's defense is very good, and I can't see the Texans grinding out more than
like ten points here. I mean they're implied point totals like fifteen and a half. Yeah, I don't know how they get there.
I agree, I agree. I mean it's not a game I'm gonna take because I usually don't take these giants spreads. But yeah, it's really difficult to see how they're gonna be able to put up points. The Bills defense is really good. They're playing really really well right now. And yeah, I mean I could if you're forcing me to choose a side, I would take the bills like I will, I will, you know, deal with the the possibility of a backdoor cover. But yeah, I don't know how they
put up points. So I'm with you. This is an interesting one here that I'm looking forward to watching. Seahawks are visiting the forty nine Ers. The Seahawks are getting three and the totals fifty two.
I think I'd take the Niners here. Again, it's just that I think that Seattle defense is a lot worse than people realize. So that's kind of that's kind of my angle on this game.
Yeah, I think I take the Seahawks. I think if I had to go one way, I just it's rough that they're one and two. You're gonna give me Russell Wilson down one and two, Like this just strikes me as the game that worst case, he's just gonna take over. And I'm not that impressed with the forty nine Ers right now, like I They're they're, you know, a fine team and everything like that, but you know, with Jimmy g under center, just not an offense that scares you.
Not No offense I think can really exploit the deficiencies in the Seahawks defense. And again you've got Russell Wilson right now coming off you know, bad loss not you know, a couple bad losses in a row just strikes me as you know, he's going to come out on top of here. Again, not a game I'm betting necessarily, but if I was forced to, I think I would take the Seahawks in this one. How about the Cardinals visiting the Rams. The Rams are laying four and a half. Total is fifty five.
Yeah, I this was another one I looked at and I was just I could not choose side or either end of that total. Like it was just, I mean, it seems like it's a good line. It's a very sharp line both ways.
I agree, I'm not touching the total. I mean it's fifty five. Like, there's no way I'm taking an under in this game. You can make it seventy and so, like I'm just going to sit out right out right. But at the same time, fifty five is huge. I think I'd say a way, if I had to pick a side, I'd probably take the Rams. But it's not a game that I feel good about at all, Like I you know, even if the Rams show to a big lead, you can easily see the Cardinals sort of
covering and talk about the total in this one. Would you take the side here with the Steelers? You know, I lean that way. The Packers are laying six, and after the Steelers in Green.
Bay, I would, yeah, the angry Steelers Tomlin firing these guys up after the bad, bad home loss to Cincinnati.
Yeah, yep, all right, I would as well. And we all talked about this one. The Ravens are getting one in Denver. You have picked a side because you have to contractfully obligated by whatever weird you're in, or you're taking the Broncos laying one. I would probably take the Ravens getting one. Assuming Lamar is okay. I believe I just saw something that say he did not practice again today, but he reported obviously he's out or running away, but whatever,
that's what is all right. Sunday night, everybody is waiting for the game. The Bucks are visiting the Patriots. The Bucks right now are laying seven points and the total is forty nine.
Oh man, I have to take the home dog here, just have to. I know. It's Brady Mania and a lot of people just can't conceive of Brady and Gronk losing their homecoming game. But I just there's no way I am giving seven points to a Bill Belichick team at home. I just can't do it.
I am not betting on this game whatsoever. I think honestly, if I had to, I would I Pat. I am. I am Bill Belizick no matter what. Is an incredible, incredible coach. But I am slowly starting to come around to the fact that if he doesn't have Tom Brady on his team, I have no idea what we would think of Bill Belichick at this point. You know, I know he's a great I just don't know if he has if he has the ability right now. And I don't trust Mac Jones whatsoever like that. That's also part
of it. Even if they the defense steps up, I just don't know if they keep this game close, I'm not betting it, to be clear, But.
What was the total on this one? Again? Dan?
Forty nine?
Forty nine? Okay, Yeah, that's a stay away. Yeah, I think that's a good line.
I think if I had to, I'd go under. But I don't want it whatsoever. I just want to sit back, Pat you and I'll be doing the Fantasy Recap show right around that time. We'll dB al right that we'll sit back and watch it for sure. Last one Monday night game, the Raiders are visiting the Chargers. The Chargers are laying a field goal total fifty one and a half.
Oh fun game. Yeah, I believe a little bit more in the Chargers. I'd be inclined to take them. And I do think these teams are going to race up and down the field, even though these defenses are very statistically average, both of them, just like in the middle of the road defenses. But these offenses are both humming, you know, as long as the Chargers can stop these
motion penalties that nullified touchdowns. They've had like three of those in the last two weeks, but other than that, and it still really hasn't slowed them down that much. So I think this is going to be a fun way to close out Week four.
Yeah, these are Sunday night game, Monday game, both just awesome football games to be watching. I would lean over and I would lean Chargers for both of these, because this is nice to see the Chargers finally kind of doing what I think we all thought they could be doing, you know, either last year and before the inevitable injuries hit Pat, thank you very much for pinch hitting. I really appreciate it. I love talking to you. As you know,
we do a lot of podcasts together. I won't ask you where everybody can find more of you in your work because it's a fantasy pros and at betting pros and all the good stuff. So don't worry about that. Let me very quickly again, they'll run through our picks just so everybody has them in case you missed it. Pat's taking the Jets getting seven over the Titans, the Panthers getting four over the Cowboys, and the Chiefs and
the Eagles over fifty four points. I'm taking the Ravens and the Broncos to go under forty five and a half, the Giants getting seven and a half against the Saints, and the Steelers and the Packers under forty five and a half. As usual, we'll be back on Monday talking about our instant reaction into the week five lines. In the meantime, enjoy your football everybody. I'll talk to you again then
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