Hey there, everyone, and welcome back to another episode of the Betting Pros NFL Podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Ady. The good news, we have some real actionable information on teams at this point, so we can analyze the lines with an eye toward what
we've seen over the last two weeks. The bad news, some notable injuries have thrown everything out of whack and everything is crazy as we're going to talk about the differences in the movement in the lines in both the Steelers forty nine Ers game as opposed to the Seahawks Saints game. Considering the injuries to Ben Roethlisberger Andrew Brees is really interesting. We'll get to all of that and more today. And with me to break everything down is
Rufus Peabody, a professional sports betteran analyst. You can find his stuff at Massy Peabody Analytics and follow him on Twitter at Rufus Peabody. Rufus, thanks for joining me. How's it going pretty good?
Thanks for having me, Dan.
I'm gonna pull the curtain back a little bit. We're recording this late. We're roughly getting to the fourth quarter of the Jets Browns game, and we were late because you had a bowling And I just want you to know that I was telling you. I respect that significantly, and that's why I had no problem moving the podcast because it is the thing that I'm actually best at in life. And we just found out we live like
an hour from each other. So maybe in a couple of weeks, maybe you and I will talk some sports gambling, and maybe we'll get together for a nice bowling match.
What he says sounds amazing. So I have to ask, what's your highest score ever bowling.
Two twenty four? It's pretty good, not bad? Right, what about you?
Okay, so we're not really in the same league that I get it. I'm gonna I'm going to rescind the invitation to go bowling, if that's okay with you, because.
I don't really want to be embarrassed.
Well, I mean, I'm a high variance bowler, so I can be really good or really bad.
All right, I'll take it. Then.
Well, anyway, today we're going to go through every over under and spread for the week three games. Now, both these spreads and the over unders, we're going to be using the bettingpros dot Com consensus numbers. That is an aggregation of the odds that are available on the market, and as I always note, there are gonna be some differences at the various sports books, particularly this week with all the chaos, so make sure to shop around. But for now, just know that when I list any given odds,
they're bettingpros dot Com consenstance ods. All right, my friend, let us begin with the Thursday night game, the Titans at the Jaguars. Right now, it's at the Titans laying one and the over under at forty. I saw this opening at spots as the Titans laying two and a half, so it has moved a little bit. It is the
lowest over under of the week, which makes sense. Do you have any sort of reaction to that line, because I mean, the minus one, As far as I'm concerned, it's pretty irrelevant to me, right, I mean, at that point it could be the Jaguars minus one.
It wouldn't really matter, right, right.
I Mean, you do see more games land on zero now with the new overtime rules in the last few years, but still, I mean, you know that line, frankly, surprised me. It surprises me. I think I expected it to a little higher. I personally like the the Titans that I've already actually you know, laid that, laid minus one and have a full position down for me. So I'm not going to be adding no matter what at this point. But you know, I hate I hate being on road favorites.
It just feels wrong. But this line just I think I'm higher than the market on Tennessee in general. And I actually kind of leaned to Jacksonville last week. So and I think, you know, Gardner minshe's a bit of a wild card, and you know, he did not play well last week to be quite honest. But I mean I still think he's not a huge, huge downgrade from you know, from Nick Foles. So you know, I depending looking at my team level model, my player level model
like together. I mean, I think the spread should be right around like four and a half towards the Titans. What do you think?
Yeah, I mean, the Jaguars kept it close against the Texans this past week. They went for two at the end, so they easily could have run. There was a report tonight that Jalen Ramsey wants out and he is requesting a trade. I don't really think he's gonna get one before Thursday, and I don't necessarily know what impact that would have even if he did. Anyway, I don't think cornerbacks necessarily are the type of players who are going
to move lines like that. But regardless, that just may indicate that the Jaguars are slipping into a little bit of disarray here. So I think favoring the Titans when it's essentially a pick him is probably the right way to go. And I wouldn't be surprised. I mean, it's a Thursday game, so there's not that much time, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it move a little bit more towards the Titans at this point. All right,
Broncos at the Packers. Packers here are laying eight and the over under is at forty three and a half. This has moved just a tiny bit. It opened from what I saw at least yesterday it was at Packers laying seven and a half. So it's moved half a point in favor of the Packers, and the over under has moved down from forty four to forty three and a half. I mean, two teams with pretty solid defense.
Is how do you feel overall about that line eight Packers laying eight and over under at forty three and a half.
Well, the Packers defense has been kind of like, I mean, they've they've they've been really really good the first two games, and I don't think we really expected that going into the season, at least, you know, my numbers didn't, you know, so my prior on them was not particularly high. And at this point we have to remember it's only been
two games. You know, there's teams that look really good and look really bad, and you know, but you know there's teams that have really good weeks eleven and twelve too, but we don't overreact to those because we have this, you know, we have a lot of games under our belt at that point. We don't at this point, so I would caution, you know, against overreacting to how green based defense is played. Like they've played well and there
is predictive value in that. But at the same time, it still is only two games, so I think that you know, I haven't run I don't have my numbers for the total yet, but you know, if it was last week, you know, I would have the total much higher than the market. So I still think I probably will lean over if anything, and I kind of lean
a little to Denver here too. I don't think that, you know, I think Defense is still substantially better than the Packers defense, despite you know what we've seen in actually by substantially looking at it, now half a point better, but still that's better. Yeah, and I'm actually kind of bearish on the on the Packers as a whole, you know, which kind of surprisingly, you know, they still have Aaron Rodgers. He's getting older though he is in a new system.
But uh, you know, I kind of think that that line might get down to just seven. We'll see, I'm planning on I lean towards the Packers, or sorry, I lean towards the Broncos. So I'm I'm I'm hoping it goes up a little bit so I can get a better price on Denver. But my guess is it'll, you know, close at seven. That's if I had guess.
Yeah, this strikes me as something where the public and the sharp betters are going to be a little split. I think that the public is going to look at the Broncos and kind of be like the Broncos stink, and they're going to look at the Packers and be like, the Packers are great, and they have Aaron Rodgers, and suddenly they have a.
Defense, which, by the way, I do think is legitimate.
I realize that it has been two games and that is a good point, but they obviously made tons of additions in the offseason and it's coming to fruition. So far, they haven't faced the most explosive offenses here against the Bears and the Vikings necessarily, but I do think it's legit and at home. So it is something where I imagine that the line is probably going to drop back
to about seven and a half. I don't think it will get down to seven, but I think it's probably going to be one where there's going to be a split among the public and the sharp betters, is my guest, for basically the exact reasons you said, go ahead.
That makes a lot of sense. And also I just want to point I'm looking at my game grades here in Green Bay. I didn't you know they played well in defense against Minnesota, obviously limited Kirk Cousins, who is a Redskins fan. I mean, I guess you know the Redskins do a lot of things wrong, like everything wrong, but maybe they were right not to let Kirk Cousins go.
But Green Bay they actually had a subpar game grade according to my numbers on offense, so you know they you know, obviously Denver's pretty bad on offense, but Green Bays their offense has not been good in either of the first two games.
Yeah, I know one thing we're not even talking about because I haven't heard anything on it. It did look like Aaron Rodgers kind of sustained some sort of arm injury in late in that game. He didn't throw very much towards the end. There hasn't been any word on it, but you will want to monitor that because if it is anything that could at all limit him, you probably
want to come in on the Broncos there. By the way, do just want to point out that you being a Redskins fan and me being a Jets fan maybe makes this the saddest podcast of all time, but we're going to try to power through it. Let's move on to the Falcons at the Colts. The Colts here are laying two and a half and the over under is at forty seven and a half. That's down from about half a point from where it opened. Both teams are coming off big wins here. I'm a little surprised by it.
I thought it would be more like one. Not that it really makes a difference when it's under three necessarily, but I think I thought that it was going to be after the Falcons big win, it was gonna move down a little bit, but it stayed at two and a half right from the thought, right from the start. Any thoughts on that Colts playing two and a half over under at forty seven and a half.
You know, I kind of agree with you on that. And the Falcons are an interesting team to me because basically the my individual player numbers like show that they are a much more talented team than their actual game results have indicated. And that's kind of gone back. That's been that was the same last year as well, So it seems like they're a team that's kind of underachieved. You know, they're the their offensive line play has not been good, and I was expecting it to be a
little better. But you know, I do think that in Jacoby Brissett for the Colts, I kind of thought that the market would what have valued Aaron or sorry, Aaron Andrew luck a little bit more than it has. But but Jacoby said, has proved to be quite serviceable so far. And obviously the Colts also have a lot of talent. But I you know, Atlanta did let's see where where
was their game grade last week? Yeah? That was late last They were the thirteenth best, so they basically I had them as a zero point twenty five points better than average, meaning that if you, I mean, that's adjusting for their opponent and adjusting for home field advantage. And he played a little bit better point four points better. But man, everybody was very very clustered this past week. So yeah, so I make you know, honestly, my my
models diverge here a little bit. But I like the Falcons here at plus three, and yeah, I'm already down at Falcons at plus three, so I'm thinking it may close underfield goal.
Yeah, well right now, we've got it the consensus at two and a half, so it is already down a little bit. Then if you if you saw it at three, I don't really know, I honestly don't. I mean, I've been pretty big on the Colts coming in. I thought that the total freak out, I get it. I mean Jacoby Brissett is not Andrew Luck. He's nowhere close to Andrew Luck. But I feel like everybody had twenty seventeen in their mind and they thought he was just going to come in and be terrible, like when he was
signed off the street that year. But that's not what this is. It's a different offensive system, it's a different team, and he was taking first reps for the entire preseason. So you know, I like them. I think they're competent. I'm still a little bit surprised, just because I feel like Colts laying two and a half begs people to take the Falcons at that point, and I think it will, and so you know, I wouldn't be surprised to necessarily
see this line actually move down. But you know, at this point that strikes me as a line that I was surprised to see where it was, and I would expect it perhaps to even drop a little bit. So if you like the Falcons, I think that i'd probably get it now.
Personally, Yeah, and per Set, I mean, I think the Colts do value Perset pretty highly. They did trade what a third rounder to the Patriots for.
Him, Yeah, and they signed him to an extension. I mean, it's basically the equivalent of get him the franchise tag. But you know, they do like him and he can run that off. It's a great system and they're a great team. You know, outside of Brissett. I'm not saying anything about him. He's fine. You know, he can start in the NFL. But they have an elite offensive line, They've got a solid defense. Mac is a pretty decent
running back. T Y Hilton is still good. They really they have a very strong team and if you have somebody who knows that system, they can be good. But again, at this point, I don't think the public has really caught on to them necessarily. I mean, maybe because they beat the Titans, that's what they're thinking. But again, I'm a little bit surprised by this. I thought that the spread would be a little bit closer here, and I wouldn't be surprised to see money come in on the
Falcons and see it move down. Let's move on to the Ravens at the Chiefs. I was a little bit surprised by this one. This has the Chiefs laying six and a half. It was at six now that total right now is at fifty five and a half in our Consustus rankings. I saw it open at fifty two, so I think Better's most likely hammered the over here. And you can understand why. This is the first game of the season in Arrowhead and the Ravens have played
some soft competition. So for me, when I looked at this, I was I get the Ravens have been incredible and Lamar Jackson has been great, but they've played the Dolphins and they've played the Cardinals. Those are not strong defenses. I was really surprised that this was under a touchdown here, given how Mahomes has looked. So what's your reaction here at Chiefs laying six and a half in the over under at fifty five and a half.
Yeah, I'm a little surprised too, just given the sort of Lamar Jackson hype we had week one and the fact that he backed up that performance with another good performance at least on the surface last week. So the other I mean, I'm not surprised that the total is so high, and that's again that's something where I'm gonna be playing the under for sure. I think that it might be one where I'm gonna wait a little bit as well, right now, it's Monday night. I haven't bet
any totals yet. The number, I mean limits just are not high enough at this point. But I'm I lean towards Baltimore here. You know, honestly, it depends on what you think of Lamar Jackson, how much you value two games this year versus what you saw last year. And I think just I guess from I mean not a non modeling perspective, intuitively, I mean, the Ravens have had all off season to design a system around Lamar Jackson's strengths, and it seems like they've definitely done that and done
that well. And that's that's kind of hard to model. And so the fact that my player value on Lamar Jackson going into the season was not frankly pretty poor, like like twenty fifth best quarterback in the NFL, I think that, you know, I don't actually believe that right now, because I do believe they have designed a really good system around him. And so my team level model actually makes the game of three and a half points, right, So.
I interest I think, Okay, so you were surprised. You were saying, sorry, I didn't mean to go off, but you were because I came in and I said, I'm surprised this wasn't at a touchdown. You sounded like, right off the bat, you basically said you were surprised that it was as high as it was.
Right, Well, you.
Have the Ravens defense, which is a fantastic unit, and I believe I have them as the best defense in the NFL. Yes, I do by a substantial margin. So you yeah, and yes.
Out of curiosity. Out of curiosity.
Sorry, again, I don't mean to get you up, but I'm interested in you know, you're a very analytical guy. I really want to get into this. How is that based? Because again, they have faced you know, they faced the Dolphins, which really doesn't count. I mean essentially, right, you can essentially throw that out, and they faced the Cardinals. How much does that take into account the fact that they've played two offenses that.
Really kind of struggled to move the ball.
I mean, I realized that Kyler Murray looked fairly good this past week, But I mean, how much does that take into account if they're the best defense in the NFL given who they played so far?
Oh, it definitely takes it into account. Like, it's more the reason that I have them as the best is because that's basically what I expected them to be going into the season. They were the number one defense in the NFL by over a point over number two Chicago and Myts going into the season, so and basically that
hasn't changed much at least at the top. I mean personally, I think that, you know, I think people you know, Miami's obviously awful, but they have played the Patriots and the Ravens, which are too like two teams that are you know, possibly super you know, Patriots obviously a Super Bowl contender, and Ravens are a team that I think have a good chance to get a first Round by
this year and win their division. So actually, way you have Patriots and Chiefs that are the best teams in the football, but like the Ravens are not too far behind given their defense, and so they don't need Lamar
Jackson to be incredible. They just need him to be decent and they have you know that they're they're a Super Bowl contender, So I don't think, you know, it's just like, you know, the Patriots held the Dolphins to what sixty yards in the first three quarters of football, which, yes, they're the Dolphins, but holding any team to sixty yards
over three quarters, it's really impressive. So I don't think, and I don't think, we can just throw out the Ravens performance against the Dolphins and just say, oh, it was just the Dolphins.
No I And again, I don't mean to be doing that whatsoever. I think the Ravens are certainly a strong team, and I like them right now in the North, especially with Roethlisberger's injury, and they weren't looking great anyway. But it's just man, the Chiefs at this point and what Mahomes is still able to do just really scaring. But this is great. We're bringing two different perspectives. You sort of felt like the line should have been lower. I
felt like the line should have been higher. So I'm interested to see where this one is going to end up. Let's move on to our next game, the Bengals at the Bills. The Bills here are laying six. Now, I did see this open in a lot of spots at the Bills laying four, so it has moved up a bit here, and the over under at forty three and a half. This is also something where I saw it open up at forty two. I mean, the Bills defense has been really strong through two games. I haven't faced
the toughest competition. The Bengals were surprisingly competent against the Seahawk in Week one, not so much in Week two against the four nine ers. The six points, you know, strikes me as a little bit of an overreaction, but I mean, I'm not sure.
What do you think.
What's your reaction to Bills lank six over under at forty three and a half.
Well, personally, so, as I said before, you know, it's We've only had two games so far. So going into the season, I had the Bills as zero point three to five points better than average league average on defense, and after two games I now have them at one point plus one point three to nine, so they only go up a point, which kind of you know, I feel like that seems like an underreaction, right, but it is. I guess what I'm saying is that's basically what the numbers bear out. And I hate Cincinnati.
I mean my rate like the city, the city, or the or the Bell Gulls.
I hate my numbers on Cincinnati. It feels like I'm always too high on them for some reason, because Andy Dalton is has a lot of experience and has been a serviceable quarterback over the years. He's obviously not a super star or anything like that, but he's you know, he's not Luke Falk, right, all right, gratuitous but go ahead. Who I called Nick Falk earlier accidentally?
But you're just again you were thinking of Nick Folk, the former Jets kicker.
But go ahead.
So here's a question for you. If you, let's say you put Andy Dalton's quarterback of the Bills and Josh Allen this quarterback of the Bengals, how does that line change.
Wow, that's a great question. Gosh. My guess is it would move a couple of points towards the Bengals.
I guess it would be more like the Bills at home laying I'd probably put it at laying three. I will admit that I don't really know what to make of the Bengals at this point, right because I was really impressed with what they were able to do in Seattle in Week one. Zach Taylor's offense, you know, it looked kind of exciting. They're down a green, their offensive line is in shambles. That's that's also part of it. I don't know if Cordy Glenn is going to be
able to come back. But then they look terrib terrible against the forty nine ers. They couldn't tackle anybody, they couldn't move the ball. Well, so I don't really know what what do you what would it move in your opinion if if you swapped quarterbacks.
So I would move it three points towards Cincinnati. Yeah, we're sorry away sorry wait, wait, towards Buffalo away from Cincinnati, really because I am so the other issue. I don't want to say issue, but but I think one thing that my model does not do is react. One thing it does do, I guess is it underreacts to sort of quarterbacks in the career. It is very slow to react to a guy being good that is a young guy. So it because there are so many guys that you have a few good games at the start of the
career and don't end up doing that much. And it does if like this is kind of what the data bears out. And so a guy like Baker Mayfield, who everybody was crowning, like, you know, thinking, was this guy that had a chance to coettend for MVP and you know, lead Cleveland to the playoffs and possibly Super Bowl this year. You know, I still have him his a league average quarterback basically, you know, And so I have Josh Allen.
I think Josh Allen, you know, he was what top ten pick overall, but he Dalton has a track record, I guess I should say a track record of mediocrity. But I still have him as above league above an above league average quarterback somehow, which is kind of why I hate Cincinnati, because I'm like, there's no way he's an above average quarterback. It doesn't feel like he is. But he also is on the Bengals, and they tend to kind of be very frugal with their money and not really spend on players.
And sure, what do you what do you think about Bill's lang six? I mean, what's your gut reaction to that?
I took Cincinnati plus six?
Okay, all right, so I.
Think Cincinnati, for you know, one thing they do have in general is a lot of continuity on their team from last year. There's not a lot of roster turnover. And the Bills do have a lot of roster turnover, which you know, a lot of that is a good roster turnover, I should say, it's not guys leaving that you do did They did lose Lashawn McCoy, but running backs don't really matter very much. That is basically no
down grade there. But they brought in some players that they thought are gonna help improve them on the offensive line, a wide receiver for example. Whereas the Bengals had a lot of continuity and they had a very bad offensive line last year. They their offensive line graded out like horrendously, and it's this is kind of one of those regression in the mean things. It's like, well, this is a
professional franchise, is offensive line like it. It can't be it can't be any worse, and it should be better just due to like randomness, just due to like you know, it is hard to be that bad back to back years, that type of thing.
So all right, well, I mean, look, I'll be honest, I did not have a strong reaction to this. I don't really know what you're supposed to do this. I lean Cincinnati at Bill's lank six, but you feel much stronger that probably the spread would have been much more fair if it were lower and closer to Cincinnati, which
I think is fair. I think that the public is probably going to be on the Bills, because I think the public used things rather sort of simply as the Bills kind of looking relatively good in the opening, and they'll have that taste of watching Cincinnati get destroyed by the forty nine ers. But I agree it's at least something that should be much closer. I don't know whether or not the spread's going to move, but I think if you can early go in, if you can get
in on Cincinnati, that probably makes sense. Let's move on to my Jets at the Patriots. Patriots are currently laying eighteen and a half. Look, this was at seventeen at one point when I checked yesterday. I think it may have opened at thirteen or something like that. The over under was at forty six.
And a half.
It was at forty eight now my guess. Although I mean, the Jets looked terrible while Trevor Simon was throwing the ball, but with Luke Faw, I can't imagine that the spread is just going to hang out here at eighteen and a half. I've got to think that it's probably going to move to at least twenty. When you're dealing with a guy who's basically never played quarterback in the NFL.
Right, Yeah, I think it's gonna go up a little bit. I didn't. I showed maybe a touch of value towards the Jets with Simeon, but not much. I made it right around sixteen. Okay, And you know I'm not following the game very closely. Right now, with twenty three to three in the fourth quarter.
You're lucky.
You're just consider yourself lucky. It's it's not pretty.
The Jets are not going to improve from this. So and I think that the narratives, I mean, I think I think that line is going to get driven up largely by this narrative of the Patriots being this unstoppable force and the Jets, you know, zero to two and with their third string quarterback, like, I think it could get up there on Miami Dallas territory.
Yeah, no, I think.
And we'll get to that in a minute, which right now is at twenty one sitting here, unless it's continuing to move. But I agree, if you wake up and you see it still at eighteen and a half, I personally would have zero problems. If you've seen it's gonna move. I mean, the Jets look abysmal. They are down some key players, on defense right now, but it's really not gonna make a difference. They're not gonna be able to move the ball very well, regardless of who's a quarterback
if it's not Darnold against the strong Patriots defense. So to the extent you can get in on at walle it's at eighteen and a half, I would go ahead and make that move personally. Now before we move on, I do want to tell everyone about the sponsor of today's show, bet MGM.
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the Eagles are currently laying seven. It was at seven and a half and the over under is at forty eight and it was at forty nine and a half. My guess is that this download movement is most likely because of the injuries that the Eagles sustained last night. Both the Shawn Jackson and al Seon Jeffrey missed pretty much the entirety of last night's game against the Falcons Dallas.
Goottard was out there, just devastated by injuries. So right now, though, looking at it, you know, those guys are both questionable. Sounds like DeShawn may play Nato Sharron al Sean. The Eagles are laying seven and the over under is at forty eight lines at the Eagles, what do you think?
I like the Lions here? Their defense his you know, obviously Matt Patrici gets a bunch of crap. But their defense has been impressive so far this year. You know, they haven't they haven't played world beaters exactly. They had faced rookie Kyler Murray and played a really good half and then let them back into it. And but the Chargers, actually,
the Chargers are a good team. Although I tend to think that, you know, Philip Rivers at some point is we're going to see some kind of big decline, although I hope not because I managed to be stuck with him on my fantasy football team. No, the Lions defense, I was surprised at how good they've played so far this season. There I have them as zero point eight points above league average, and I think that that spread
should be should be closer to a field goal. To be honest, I'm not a big believer in the Eagles and Carson Wentz and okay, Carson Wentz. It's it's interesting because Carson Wentz. I guess it feels like what he's been in league three or four years now. But I think everybody keeps expecting him to sort of take that next step because he showed flat like his first year, he showed a bunch of flashes, and he just hasn't really taken it.
Yeah, I mean he's of course, he's battled injuries for most of his career. He can uncork some throws. I think you know last night too, he was basically getting pulled down. He got rid of the ball a split second before his knee hit the ground, and he got so much on it. It's really impressive that he's able to do it. I'm a little more bullish on the Eagles, but I do agree that at this point the seven
points spread I kind of undervalues the Lions. I don't necessarily think i'd have a closer to a field goal. I think it should be more like six under the key number of seven. But you know my initial reaction, even on the road, I agree, the Lions have been impressive so far. I mean, I think that they should have lost against the Chargers. The Chargers kind of gave
that game away. But I do think that they've been impressive. So, you know, some of it may depend on the injuries, but I imagine that the spread is going to roughly stick right around seven. I could see it maybe dropping to six and a half, maybe even six if the Eagles continue to battle all the injuries. But it is something where I think my initial reaction to it was it undervalues the Lions at this point.
And by the way, I think you're right like the Chargers. I have the Chargers in my game grades is half a point better than the Lions overall, but the Lion's defense was a little bit better.
Yeah, I mean, look, this is what the Chargers kind of do. And we could break down that game for a long time. I mean, you know Austin Eckler fumbling as he went into the goal line, and you know Rivers throwing a pick at the end zone and missing the trying a field goal with a backup kicker instead of going forward on fourth, and you know, it was just a bunch of things. But I think that the
Charger should have won that game. But I was impressed watching that game with the Lions, in particular their defense and they have weapons on offense.
You know, T J.
Hockinson didn't do anything yesterday, but he is a big presence. Kenny Galladay is still good. Kerry On Johnson can still get it done. Marvin Jones is kind of underrated. He hasn't been that involved yet. So they've got a lot of weapons that they can do. So I do think that if it stays at a touchdown, I will like the Lions probably here, but I wouldn't be surprised to see dropped just a bit. Let's move on to the
Raiders at the Vikings. The Vikings here are laying eight and a half and the over under is at forty two and a half. Now, this originally opened from what I saw, it was at seven and a half, so it's moved about a point in favor of the Vikings. I don't know whether or not that's a reaction to the Raiders coming down to Earth a little bit against the Chiefs yesterday, although that's probably a little unfair. They are dealing with some injuries here. Tyrell Williams and Josh
Jacobs are both banged up a little bit. I haven't seen anything that suggests that their availability is in question at this point. But how do you feel about the Raiders at the vikings? The Vikings currently eight and a half with an over under of forty two and a half.
You know, I don't have a strong opinion there. I make the line right around six and a half, so it's not big enough spread for me at this point to take it. And regarding the injuries though, I think that the running backs and wide receivers, it feels like those are the injuries we notice the most. But at the same time, those are the you know, my numbers have shown those are kind of the least important positions, meaning they're sort of the most replaceable.
Yeah, and so I mean, offensive line's got to move it much more than that, right, I don't know.
If it moves the line more, but it should for sure.
We'll talk about in a bit. Of course.
You've got two major quarterback injuries that we're going to talk about, and the impact of the lines, which I'll really want to pick your brain on a little bit is vastly different. I mean, the movement in what happened to the line with the Saints versus what happened with the Steelers pretty different there, So we will talk about that,
But in terms of this game, I completely agree. I just you know, what I do was when I look at the line, I try to project the lines necessarily, and when I look at it, I just I just did not have a strong feeling on this. I don't necessarily know if it's gonna move anywhere. I think eight and a half. I don't think it's getting back down to seven or anything close to that. But it struck me as just right around kind of where it needed to be. I don't really have a strong feeling on that.
So we'll see if it moves during the week, but for right now, I'm not all that excited about it. Let's move to the Dolphins at the Cowboys here. You referenced it earlier. The Cowboys are currently laying twenty one points. I believe it opened at sixteen and a half, so it moved quite a bit. The over under is forty seven and a half now. A couple of updates here. I mean we've seen the Cowboys look very good on offense.
Of course, so far, we've seen the Dolphins look abysmal and pretty much every facet of the game we mentioned what makes a difference necessarily in the line. So neither one of these things will probably move it either way. But there is no Michael Gallup in this one. He sustained a minor injury to his meniscus, so he's gonna miss two to four weeks, including this game and tonight. Right before we recorded, the Dolphins traded Minka Fitzpatrick to
the Steelers for first rounder. How do you handle generally these giant lines that we're saying now with basically, you know, whenever the Dolphins play, I mean, what do you do with a line that's twenty one?
You know, it's interesting because my model, I'll be the first of men, I'm not the best of dealing with outliers because I'd rather be good at predicting most of the games and miss on a few than set up a model to sort of handle a few really well and then not be less accurate on most. I guess it's not like I'm It's not like I'm on Wall Street and leveraging my taking these huge leverage positions, and if I'm not getting the parameter uncertainty modeled correctly, I'm
going to lose everything on one bet. Right, I'm allocating a specific amount on each bet, so no one bet is going to really kill me. So with that said, I think that we tend to I found at least and this isn't in the NFL per se, but in other sports like baseball, I found that overall, the truly extreme teams I do tend to be to miss on a little bit, like I'm too high on the extreme bad teams and too well on the extreme good teams, the teams that end up being that truly extreme outlier team.
But the funny thing is there the market thinks that there are more true extreme teams than there actually are. We're too quick, the public is too quick to say, yes, this team is an outlier, this team is really really like extreme good or really really extreme bad. So it does seem right now like the Dolphins are an extreme bad team, but they've played two really good teams so far, and they do have a team of professionals that were mostly drafted in the NFL Draft. They have a coach
who has experience. Well it's his first time as an NFL head coach. But but you know they have a coaching staff with people that have coached before. These are they would still beat any college team by a mile. And so you know, they they did play like I have game grades, and they played fundamentally. They were forty points worse than New England last week.
So but but you know, I'm I will be on Miami here and I actually took some at twenty one and a half earlier today.
If it goes higher, I will take some more. I just I just think, like, how can it possibly be that high? Like my my numbers I have it as a fifteen point spread, so and I know that's too low, but yeah, I don't truly believe it should be twenty one and a half points. You don't have Luke falk Is,
the is the Dolphins quarterback. You actually have someone serviceable who has played very well at times in his career in Ryan Fitzpatrick, although he's not played very well this year, and so like this is a team of professional football players.
Yeah, I get it. If you take another shot at the Jets. By the way I'm ending the podcast, I'm I'm just laying that out there right now. Okay, you Luke Fox is like the best thing that's happened to the Jets season so far.
So for me, I don't know. I don't know how you do.
I mean, historically, teams that are favored by twenty plus points I don't believe have fared particularly well. But I don't know how to analyze this. I'm not kidding, like, I don't want any piece of it. Everything to me is like twenty one. You got to take the Dolphins at this point. But watching them, it's just futility at its best. And I know they are a professional sports team, and you make all the right points, and when I analyze it, yeah, I think, you know what, the Dolphins
here have value at this number. But it's something where I personally, I just can't get in on it. I just for me, it's a stay.
Away, you know. I can't imagine if it got.
To like twenty four, I'd probably be for us too, But it's not gonna get there, I don't think and either for now, I think i'd probably just avoid.
So what do you think is the square? Like, do you think that the what is the quote unquote sharp side here?
I mean, I I well, the sharp side was on the Dolphins against the Patriots, right, I mean they got I believe, a lot of money in once that number started creeping up towards you know, wherever it eventually ended up. My guess is the sharps are going to be on the Dolphins at twenty one or twenty one and a half because they're going to see value in it. For me, there are some things and the same thing and this is going to be simplistic, but I'm going to be
honest about it. It's the same thing with Mahomes. It's very difficult for me when I look at a spread and I look at something and I say, this is what I think it should be because I think sometimes with a guy like Mahomes and what he is doing, and with a team like the Dolphins at this point, it kind of makes me want to throw sort of everything that I have out the window and just kind of not get involved. I know that that's not the way you need.
To be doing things.
You need to be you know, essentially analyzing it and taking the position that you think best represents where you need to be. But for me, looking at I just I can't I can't take the value that I see on the Dolphins because I really am concerned that this could be that outlier season where every spread is going to be twenty and above except when they play the Jets, and it's going to be warranted.
It could be, but I mean, look at this. I mean, you have Dallas that started to and O the Dolphins have started owing to. The Dolphins have been outscored by what almost an is it a hundred points? Right around one hundred points ninety something?
Yeah about that, yes.
And the Cowboys have you know, two convincing wins against two really bad football teams, and so I sort of think that there's this whole I mean, I think the narratives are really pushing the Cowboys up there, and there is going to be like when you see outlier performances, you know, luck is generally a contributing factor in some way most of the time. So I think they will come back down to earth a little bit. I mean, you're not going to have Fitzpatrick is gonna throw two picks sixes every game.
Well, you know, he did play for the Jets, and I've seen him do it. Well, maybe not every game, but yeah, now I understand everything you're saying.
I really do.
It's just something at this point that I really it's not something that I'm willing to jump in on. Let's move on here, because we spend a lot of time in that game. To the Giants at the Bucks. The Bucks are currently laying six and a half and the over under is at forty eight. Pat Summer is not naming a QB at this point, so we don't know necessarily whether Eli Manning is going to be under center.
The Giants look terrible. What's your reaction here? Bucks laying six and a half over under at forty eight.
I mean, there's no reason the Giants should be playing Eli Manning at this point. He's basically had a three year farewell tour in New York and you know that team is going nowhere. But as much as it pains me to say it, I still think there's a little value there on the Giants. If you can get plus seven.
Yeah, yeah, what about six and a half? Are you in on them?
I already got in at plus seven, okay for a little bit, plus seven, Lanye minus one, sixteen, Yeah, my numbers, My numbers actually do still like the Giants at six and a half eight to say it, but.
Yeah, I look, the early money that's coming in is heavily on the Giants, so I don't think you're alone there. Now the spread has moved up from where it was. Originally it was five and a half, it went to six and a half. I think you kind of got to wait here because we don't really know who's going to be under center, and it's kind of hard to make that move.
If it is.
Eli, Yeah, I mean if I can get it at a touchdown, I'd get in on it. Once it gets below the key number, it's a little nerve wracking, but we'll need to see where it goes. But I do think if there is value on a team right now, it is on the Giants.
Wait. And as much as it pains me to say it, if Daniel Jones is in a quarterback that, I mean that hurts the Giants in the short term. Yeah, it hurts up for the game, but I think it's better for the franchise.
I think we can be in full agreement that they Eli should not be the starting quarterback for the Giants right now. The impact on this exact game would probably be negative for them. I agree, let's move on to the Panthers at the Cardinals. Panthers here are laying two and a half. Now, this was at three and a half, so they've moved it down closer towards the Cardinals. The over under has moved to forty six and a half. It was at forty four. I mean, the Panthers have
not looked good. Cam hasn't looked good. They do get extra time to prepare here. So what's your reaction to Panthers laying two and a half over under at forty six and a half.
You're right that that extra time to prepare is worth something. I actually, I don't have an opinion. I make the Panthers a little over three point favorite, so no opinion there. And the Panthers have looked bad, but again it's only two games and they're against a you know, Arizona team that's in full rebuild mode with you know, a ton of inexperienced players on defense and a rookie quarterback and a coach that got fired at Texas Tech.
So yeah, I'm I'm personally I'm a little surprised this move below three given the extra time off. I really I think they're going to come out, and I think if you can get it below three, I would take that any day of the week. I realized that they're on the road, but I do think that the extra time to prepare the Cardinals have all sorts of problems.
On defense.
I realized Murray and the offense looked a bit more competent, although they couldn't really get in the end zone against Baltimore. But I love to me the early thing here, and especially it opened above the key number of three. It opened at three and a half, and the fact that it's moved to two and a half, you know, regardless of what that means, I personally like it if you can get the Panthers below that key number. Before we
get into our last few games. I do want to remind everyone that we are giving away and autographed Alvin Kamara helmet this month. To be entered into the contest, all you need to do is leave a review for the podcast on iTunes or Stitcher and send a screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com. And if you entered last month's contest and did not win, then you are automatically entered this month, So no need to worry about that, all right, Let's move on to
these Steelers at the forty nine ers. Now, of course, this has all gone crazy since Roethlisberger got injured. It opened at the Steelers laying a point and a half, It is currently at the forty nine Ers laying seven.
To me.
I don't know that seems like a crazy move, as some of it could be due to the fact that the forty nine Ers looked very good dismantling the Bengals on Sunday.
But I mean that's a huge move for quarterback.
I get that Mason Rudolph, you know, doesn't have experience, but he looked competent against the SIAXO. I mean, how do he analyze and what's a reaction to forty nine ers laying seven to the Steelers in the over under at forty four and a half.
You're right, Rudolph has looked confident. And I know the sort of common perception here is that Bridgewater is not nearly as big a downgrade for the Saints as Rudolph is for the Steelers. But but my numbers kind of agree with that perception. I think that I think that that move is entirely warranted and it's I made the line actually minus seven point eight, so I think.
Really, yeah, I'm honestly, I'm surprised that I don't want to be buying too much into what I saw yesterday. Of course, Bridgewaters it's different. He's been in the system for several years, although Rudolph obviously has a little time there, and Bridgewater has been a competent NFL could be, of course, But I mean eight and a half.
You know that that is a huge move to me.
I'm not even saying that I think you need to jump on the Steelers or anything like that. I do think that the forty nine Ers are a decent team, better than people expected them to be. But that seemed like a huge move. But it sounds like you're right there and you think that the move was pretty much right and you think it's probably that's probably where it'll end up, right right around seven.
Having I mean, quarterback is the most important position in the NFL by mile, and if you know it's your quarterback is just as important as the ten other players on offense combined. So that that's the reason for the move right there. And it all comes down to what you think of Mason Rudolph and a guy that hasn't
you know me, did he have one start? I mean he's had some, he's had a little bit of sporadic playing time, but you know, a guy like just the track record of guys with zero one starts just is not very good.
Yeah.
Well, I mean it's uns it's fair, it's fair to the NFL. Just it struck me as again, I mean, I know, quarterback of course the most important, of course, but especially we're going to see the number on breeze and it's a different it's Bridgewater, and he certainly has experienced and he certainly looked competent in his career, but I mean it's a much smaller move, which we'll get to in a second. But you're saying that's totally warranted,
So I'm gonna go with you. That's totally fine. Forty nine ers laying seven, So my guess is that's probably around where it's going to be. It's a tough game, of course, to handicap, because we just we don't have that much data on Rudolph. It's more of sort of the analytical of what do you think when you lose someone like Roethlisberger to somebody who you really don't have much sort of tape on and anything like that in the NFL.
So, and to your point though about the forty nine Ers dismantling the Bengals, they had they were the second highest rated team and for my game grades last week and actually had a ninety ninth centile game, meaning literally it's better than one. You know, it's top one percent of games, so they would have been basically, the Patriots were plus eighteen. The nine Ers were a plus sixteen, so that you know their offense, and their offense had far and away the best week of any offense in
the NFL. So there is a bit of an adjustment there.
Yeah, and I agree, and that that does make a little more sense than it's not purely eight and a half based purely on the downgrade to Rootolph, although I mean it, maybe it's warranted basically what you're saying, but the forty nine as certainly their stock improved greatly with the win over the Bengals. Let's move on to the Texans at the Chargers. The Chargers here are laying three and a half, it's moved from three and the over
under is at forty seven and a half. I'm a little surprised it got passed three and it moved up. I mean, it strikes me as they're being value on the Texans there. But what are your thoughts? Chargers laying three and a half over under at forty seven and a half, So I.
Have no opinion on this game. If anything, I lean towards the charge there. I have them as close to a four point favorite.
Okay, interesting, I mean for me, this is about where it should be. I would would have thought that it would have been at three, exactly which it was, which had opened up. But I guess you know, they got probably some money in on the charters.
I'm fine.
I mean that the Texans certainly didn't look great this past week. I think that's a little bit more about the strength of the Jaguars defense, despite how they looked against the Chiefs in the opening week. And I'm a little bit more bullish on the Texans, and I've basically talked about it all preseason. I like them overall as a team. But you're saying this is about where it needs to be and there's no real value on either side, right.
Right, And when you talk about the line opening and like it being bet one way, like initially on Sunday night. I don't think most people realize how little money it actually takes to move an opening line. There could be a few thousand dollars bet offshore and move and suddenly a line goes from two and a half to three, you know, yeah, from five and a half to six and a half, and it's yeah, the market is not particularly deep on a on a Sunday night with an opener,
and it's not in general. I mean, there are easy ways to move the market if you bet at particular books like Pinnacle and bed Chris, like the entire market's gonna copy. And that doesn't mean the Pinnacle and Chris are taking the biggest limits.
They're not sure.
So it's easy to draw on artors. But some moves, some of these moves are gonna be real moves. Some of these moves are someone that doesn't have a huge bankroll and they can get down and they say, you know what, I can get my thousand dollars in here and I'm happy with that. And other people are saying, okay, I can dumb you this and get a better every place copy is the move and I get a better price.
So no, absolutely.
And look, there are a lot of times where books open up and they're probably right in between numbers. They're debating between three and three and a half, and even the slightest bit of money can probably make that difference right off the bat. Let's move on to another interesting game we just talked about it, the Saints at the Seahawks. This opened at the Seahawks minus one when Breeze was healthy, and it's now the Seahawks laying four and a half.
So in comparison to the Steelers game, this is a three and a half point move here with the spread and the total is now at forty five and a half it opened at fifty. I personally love this line. I think this is right where it needs to be. That's exactly what has struck me at with Bridgewater starting. But i'd loved aari your opinion on that Seahawks laying four and a half and a forty five and a half total, I basically agree.
I make it minus five point two.
Yep, this is it's a perfect line. It's a perfect line. I don't think this is going to move whatsoever. I think it's going to stay at four and a half. I think it's going to be bet pretty evenly on both sides, you know, I feel like, casually like and we were just talking about quarterbacks. I feel like when you think about, you know, downgrading from Breeze sort of, you know, it just it seemed like it should be worth more than three and a half points, but we
talked about it. I mean, Bridgewater is a competent QB. He's been in that system. He'll have a whole week to prepare. And I don't think given how the Bengals performed in Seattle in the opening week, I don't think necessarily that home field advantage. I don't think Seattle is quite as good, you know, as they necessarily team. They easily could have lost both the first two games. So I think I don't think there's too much for us to saund at this point. I think we both agree
that the lines are right about where they need to be. Right.
Yep, wonderful.
Let's move on to the Rams at the Browns. The Rams here are laying three and the over under is fifty one. We were recording this as the Jets Browns game was going on. The Browns won big, but their offense really did not look good. Their defense look good, but I don't think you can really draw that many conclusions given that it was against the Jets with their third string quarterback and a pretty poor offensive line. So for me, when it was at two and a half,
I mean, I loved the Rams here. I still like.
Them laying three even though it's at.
It's not going to stay three.
It's going to move right, It's going to move pretty significantly towards the Rams.
Oh wait, actually, oh sorry, I think I was actually not thick when I said that, because you said it was. I mean, I don't know what, like, I don't think there's any place with the line up right now because the game's going on.
But yeah, well, I mean it's it's well, all right, where do you think it's going to Because to me, I think it's going to move, especially after this game, I think it's going to move pretty towards the Rams.
Yeah, ras I would have. I would think just based on the fact that Cleveland is I assume I have not watched the game, as as you'll.
Know, I was at bowling league, so rushing it at bowling exactly.
So I don't know how well Cleveland actually played in winning twenty three to three, but I would have given they won twenty three to three. I would think that they probably played better than expected.
They didn't, I'm not all right. So honestly, you weren't watching, they didn't. I mean they scored, you know, one of the touchdowns was just a ninety yard sort of short slant and run by Odell Beckham. Baker Mayfield did not look good throughout the game. They really didn't. I think if you watch that game, you do not come away impressed with the Browns. But regardless, what would one performance. I guess this early move the line that much because to me, Rams laying three seemed too.
Light, just that the look ahead spread. So I'm going to.
Expect this to move closer to four, and I would get in on it at three personally, you.
Know, one game, you know, I I don't overreact, but like extreme performances can move lines in my opinion, like the Ravens Week one game. Really, I think that the Ravens rating four points and my numbers maybe a little more. I think San Fran their performance against Cincinnati moved on three points in my numbers. So right now, going before the game, I made it Rams minus four and a half.
Yeah, that's exactly where. I don't think that this game is necessarily going to move it that much. I don't think people are going to look and be like, oh my god, the Browns are terrible, but they're certainly not going to look at it and be like, wow, I gotta give the Browns more credit here. To me, it was much more about the fact that, yeah, four, four and a half, that's where I think it should be, and I think that's where it's probably going to go in the end.
I could be wrong.
It opened it two and a half, which shocked me, so I would still get in on it even at the key number three, and I think it's going to.
Move probably a little more. But we will see what.
The reaction is here after this Monday night game. Let's go to our final game, Bears at your Redskins. The Bears are laying four and the over under is at forty two.
What do you think here?
I will not have a play on this game. I make it right around two and a half, but the Redskins do. I haven't gone through and finalized my snapcount projections and everything for a player model, and the Redskins do have some injuries in their defense a secondary and I'm probably gonna stay away from this, at least at the current price.
I agree.
I don't think this is a game that you can really touch because I don't think that it's I think the Redskins have impressed me a little bit, just because I really think I expected them to look more like the Giants, and they've certainly been a little better in the early going, at least from the eye test. And the Bears, I really just don't know. At some point they're gonna have to do something with the offense because Mitchell Trubisky looks terrible. It's not creative at this point,
which is surprising being it's Matt Naggi. But at the Bear's laying four, it's just not something. It's not something where I would have a great feel for, no matter what really happened to it. And the over under at forty two again it's a round where I would think. So for me, this is stay away game. And it sounds like you feel the same, right yep, All right, my friend, Well that's it. We made it through all
of them. I'm really glad that you could cut short your bowling league a little bit and join me for this one.
You provided a lot of great insight. I hope we can do it again.
Thank you so much for having me, Dan, I enjoyed it all right.
Thanks again to the sponsor of today's show, bet MGM. Remember to download the bet MGM Sports app and use the promo code Harris to get your risk free five hundred dollars wager. And don't forget to enter our September contest where we're giving away a signed Alvin Kamara helmet. Just leave a review for the show on iTunes or Stitcher and send a screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com. We'll be back later this week giving some of our best bets for Week three.
I'll talk to you then. Normally