Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast. I'm your host, Thomas Fiola and joining us today here, of course, as always the Oracle himself, Matt Friedman, and in our rotating third chair, coming at us to break down all of the Week three NFL action here none other than Kelly in Vegas herself, Kelly Stewart. How are you doing today, Kelly?
Life is good Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. I don't leave these four walls. So back to the Docto back shows. I appreciate you guys having me on. This should be pretty fun.
We appreciate you taking the time. It's going to be an exciting one. We were talking before we got on air.
Here.
It's a tough slate this week. There's a ton of home dogs that are gonna be barking. Matt, what are you thinking just over the slate in general? Were you finding it hard to pick out some games for this week?
No, I mean, I will say, donkey that I am. I looked at the board pretty quickly and identified games that I liked, that my numbers liked, and I'm.
Just I'm still on those games like the look Ahead lines.
I was like, okay, I like this game, and I'm still on a lot of those games.
Well, the first one that you're on here is the Patriots and the Ravens. Patriots getting three in Foxborough right now. It's not often over the years that we've been able to say that, at least in my lifetime. Matt, are you riding with New England here? Are you taking the visiting Ravens?
Yeah? I have to go with New England.
And I feel like such a square doing this, But you know, like Belichick as an underdog is thirty sixteen and two against the spread, and he's five to one and one against the spread versus John Harbaugh. Like it's not to say that like he has Harbaugh's number or anything like that, but like, historically, I think he's just been able to out out maneuver and outthink Harbaugh.
Uh.
And I really like the matchup of this Patriots run defense against the Ravens run offense. So even though the Ravens are only number eleven this year in rush rate, they are a running team at their core. Like that's what happens when you have Lamar Jackson and Greg Roman.
You know, Jackson's a ground attack cheat code and Greg Roman is by trade a run game coordinator, and everything that they've done this offseason signaled that they wanted to go into the running game, you know, getting raid of number one wide receiver Markue's Brown and then replacing him not with you know, wide receivers that they got in the draft, but with two tight ends.
You know. But I think they could struggle to run the ball, you know. JK.
Dobbins, it's not certain that he's playing. Number two running back Guess Edwards is out.
A left tackle.
Ronnie Stanley is yet to play this year, and their backup left tackle, Juwan James, he's out for the season with an achilles injury. So you know, with those injuries, the Ravens offense has been predictably terrible on the ground this year, you know, like bottom five and a lot of key efficiency rushing metrics. So I don't think it's
a good situation for them. And the Patriots defense has been a top five unit in yards per play, in points game points per game through two games, so I think it's it's a pretty even matchup, even skewed, I would say in general towards the Patriots, and if the Patriots can keep the Ravens and check on the ground. I think that forces them into a heavy reliance on
the passing game. And you know, while the Ravens have had success in the air this year, like they're actually number one in past DVOA, it's never a positive development to become one dimensional against a Bill Belichick defense. And the Ravens have been really fortunate with their matchups to open the year. They faced the bottom two teams in defensive pass EVOA, the Jets in Week one and the
Dolphins in Week two. So I'm skeptical that the Ravens pass offense actually is as good as it has recently looked. And if the run offense struggles in Week three, I think they can have an underwhelming offensive performance overall. In the preseason market, this was a pick them, right, I don't think that much has changed from then to now, so I will be taking the Patriots plus three.
And a pick them.
I want to be on the other side there with the Ravens, but I hate laying points going into a place like Foxborough. Kelly, what about you?
You know a wise man.
I think it was Todd Furman back in the day at Don Bess told me he goes you know what, kid, You're not going to get rich laying points on the road. And I'll be honest with you, I have always made it a habit since then not to lay points on the road. So either I cross those games off or I look towards the dog. I want to back the dog here. I don't like that move from two and a half to three. And I'm not sure who has more money than me that decided that they really liked
the Ravens minus two and a half. Maybe they were looking to get the public or some of those board cleaners to push it to three. That does concern me. As somebody who is a JK. Dobbins fantasy owner, I'd love to see him come back this weekend be able to run against his Patriots team. But I'm with Matt here. I don't think the Ravens can get their running game going. Their secondary got absolutely obliterated last week. I laid three and a half with the Ravens. You guys sit on
the couch with Grandma. She's a big Saints fan. Saints was my best bet.
No big deal.
We've got the Lions game on the iPad, the side TV. We got another couple games on I thought I was home free with that Ravens no sweat winner. Wrong, and that's because that secondary gave up some really, really bad like deep passes. Maybe they got a little lazy there, but at some point in times you got to lock it up and you can't do that. On the flip side, I'm not sure that I really trust Mac Jones as
a game manager, and that concerns me. I do have the Patriots under eight and a half wins this year, and let me tell you, Ben, those underwins have not been good for me. Historically. Bill Belichick finds ways to win. Not mentioned his home underdog record, and I'll go as far as to take the hot take to say he's got Harbaugh's number.
We've seen it from time to time where.
Bill Belichick just does less with more and even this last couple of years without Tom Brady, and I would say I have a slight lean with the three the.
Field goal out to the path. I'm not going to get involved in this game.
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that you are going to be getting involved with. You don't want to lay points on the road, but you we're getting a couple here with Green Bay versus Tampa. That line is moving quick though it's down to a pick them at most spots at this point. Does that scare you off? Are you still riding with the pack in Tampa?
Yeah, I'm riding with the pack.
To tell your audience to bet the pack though it would.
Be a little disingenuous.
But the good friend of mine named John Murray, we used to do a podcast back to the day called Kelly, and Murray.
Said, don't worry Kelly, games never land one.
Ever since then, it's been a really great joke because games land one all the time, just not as much as they land three. Okay, obviously games do land one, just not at a very high rate. So we better hope games don't land one here. But two and a half to me difference with one pick them. I did say that I liked Green Band the money line.
This is gonna be a.
Really nice trophy for my shelf later because I got some good CLV there.
This is more of a play against the Bucks.
If you guys watch anything I did last week, I said I am playing against the Bucks here. This is not a play on the Saints. I thought that Saints Stephens was gonna do really great and then guess what, laddim Makers starts throwing haymakers, and Laddimore starts throwing haymakers to Mike Evans and kind of just change the whole dynamic of the game. Packers looked really great against the Bears,
of course they did. But what I'm going to be looking here for the keys for the Packers to win this game is to do what we've seen them be able to do offensively.
But I need that secondary to step up.
I don't think Tom Brady has the ability that he once had. Now that may be a little disingenuous, but not only does he have hurt receiving core, he has no Mike Evans. At least the Thursday, what is it, four or five o'clock on the East coast. I haven't heard anything about his appeal as of right now. We've got Julio Jones injured, We've got kridad when it for Nett is going to have to be able to.
Run the ball.
But can you really run the ball against this Packers front seven. I don't know how I feel about it, but this is Aaron Rodgers one of those games that he's gonna want to get back from a little bit of revenge from two years ago to f C Championship game. And I really think that this is a Packers team that has done well for me in the underdog position on the road. We know that usually that doesn't happen, but they've covered seven of their last eleven and I'm
going to take them here on Sunday. As I mentioned, I may have a trophy in my pocket comes Sunday morning, but I did my job.
I got the best of the number here with.
The pack If closing line value could pay the bills, we would all be very rich right now. But you know I was if Packers are passed for me too. The Buccaneers wide receivers are so banged up that Cole Beasley's on the practice squad. It might have to see it say that's that's not good.
That's just wild to me. I didn't even know he was still in the league.
He was, he's been on the couch.
But about being able to run, you know, this is gonna be a Leonard Fournette game. David Montgomery did have some success, like if the Bears were moving the football, it was because it was on the ground with Montgomery and Herbert Matt Do you think that they're gonna be able to find that same success that the Bears did or are you riding with the pack here? Yeah?
I mean, speaking of closing line value, I bet this on the look Ahead when it was three and a half because that just felt so so egregious. And I have this now at one point twenty five, so I'm right in line with the market. But honestly, I might I might bump it down a little bit as we get more practice reports or injury reports rather, you know, with Julio Jones not practicing, left tackle, Donovan Smith not certain to play backup left tackle, Josh Well's definitely out
for this game. Just a ton of uncertainty on the offensive line and at wide receiver for Tom Brady. So I'm imagining, as I'm updating my power ratings and numbers and you know, reviewing reports, I will knock this number down, probably not all the way to a pick them, but certainly closer to that than to the three that this opened at.
Now. I know that you're not high on the Raiders from here in Vegas at all, and let's be frank, they've given you a lot of reason not to be through two games here. But it's an zero to two battle as they head to Tennessee to take on the Titans, who just got absolutely molly wopped on Monday Night football? Are you still going to take the Titans on the short rest? Derek Henry has not looked like the king we were promised so far this year.
Yeah, feeling very good about under on the Raiders for eight and a half with the win total. I don't feel as good about betting against them in the spot, but my number is telling me to do it, so
I'm doing it. And you look at some of the historical trends here, Derek Carr, I mean, this guy as a favorite has just massively underwhelmed throughout his career thirteen twenty four and one against the spread as a favorite one seven to one against the spread as a favorite versus a team that made the playoffs in the previous year.
So that record is just absolutely horrible. And Mike Rabel, you know, like a very particular type of coach, like a raw, raw type of coach, not really a tactician, but eighteen and twelve against the spread as an underdog, eight and four against the spread as a home underdog, and when his team has had back to back losses five to one to one against the spread. The matchup that really has my eye in this game is the
Titans pass rush against the Raiders pass blocking. Even without edge Harold Landry who's out for the season with a knee injury, the Titans defensive line I think has a pretty marked advantage over the Raiders offensive line, at least looking in our Fantasy Pros unit power rankings. And you know, specifically the Titans this year this year have excelled at rushing the quarterback. The Raiders have struggled, I think most in pass protection and center Andre James. He missed Week
two with a concussion. He hasn't returned to practice yet as we're recording this. I think the right side of that offensive line would be especial vulnerable if he's out, so in his absence last week, rookie right guard Dylan parum He shifted to center, and then undrafted fourth year backup Lester Cotton got his first NFL start filling in
at right guard. I mean those two guys. Come on, those two guys going against second team All Pro defensive tackle Jeffrey Simmons, who had eight and a half sacks last year, like he could wreak havoc against those two. And then on the end of the line is right right tackle Jermaine lu Manor. I don't know how to pronounce his last name. I'm just giving it an honest shot here.
The point is no one pretty good I would not do as well.
No one should have to try to pronounce this guy's name because he shouldn't be starting. He's a journeyman backup who has played most of his snaps at guard, and now somehow he's starting at right tackle. Like he will be outmatched by edges of Deniko Autrey and Bud Dupree, assuming dupre plays. Even if Dupree doesn't play, I don't
think it really matters. So like that matchup of this defensive line going against an offensive line that I don't think is enough to block them, means that Derek Carr could have a significant amount of pressure coming his way on the road for a lot of the game. This was Titans one point seventy five in the preseason market. Yeah, I just think there's value here the Titans. They're own too, but so are the Raiders, So I will take the Titans at two and a half.
I'm worried about the tailor of a wand injury myself that could make this really interesting when it comes to the Titans' ability to block the pressure from the Raiders front that admittedly has been a little lacklust to hear, Chandler Jones is not an upgrade over Anakin Gotway, and the Raiders are finding that out right now, but they still have Max Crosby. I'm personally looking to the under in that game. I think that this one could end up being one of those games where neither offense really
gets off the ground and they just look ineffective. Kelly, any thoughts on this game before we shift over to your next pick here?
You know, I think sometimes you got to look at these a little situationally, right, Matt, I'm sure has an amazing set of power ratings, and I've got some sharp people that let.
Me allow to be theirs.
And I think sometimes when you're looking at the NFL's look at what we saw last Matt mentioned the look ahead lines. Sometimes even those are really a great handicapping tool. What the line should have been had that previous game win a different direction? How the Titans not got blown out on Monday night football in an embarrassing passion on the road in Buffalo. This line should be Titans minus one and a half Titans minus two.
Yet here we are.
And you also have to wonder, on the flip side, how good the Raiders really are that second half, particularly that late fourth quarter comeback by the Cardinals, who I don't think are particularly that great of a team either. Sometimes teams lose games twice. Now I understand these are professionals, these are not college kids. But we've seen it happen before where you can't get that monkey off your back or don't rebound fast enough. This looks like a game
I don't want any part of. But I will tell you this. And while full disclosure teasers have been getting obliterated, my teasers have just been getting blown up.
I'm talking.
I'm taking low total, so I'm doing getting over seven excuse me over seven with seven and a half, eight and a half, And it doesn't matter because some of these teams are so bad they can't even keep it respectable at home.
That's right, I'm looking at you, Washington.
That being said, there's a couple of spots I think are a good teaser played this weekend.
The Titans are one of them.
I'm with you on that, But you're also looking at a game that I kind of like on a six point teaser here Kansas City. The Chiefs head to Indy to take on the Colts. Man, you tie the Texans week one, you get obliterated by Jackson Jelle. That's never something you want to hear in week two, and now your home opener is against Kansas City. This isn't pretty for the Colts here, but can they keep this one close?
The big questions is, obviously it is Thursday. We need to see what's going on with Pittman and Leonard. But I will say this, Jonathan Taylor needs utilize still more. If the Colts run the ball with him, slow down and take thirteen seconds to just give Matt Ryan any time.
Now.
I know Matt Ryan, if you look right now, is just getting eaten alive on Twitter because he takes over three seconds to release.
But they've got to give the old man some time.
The Colts have been terrible as home underdogs, but they have covered five of their last six. Historically not been great, but lately they've been Okay. This is the Chiefs team that I don't think is could look any better right Chiefs look amazing right now, and we know that historically they haven't been for about the last two years covering spreads.
Well now here they are coming back. And I thought we were gonna get a seven.
When you asked me what I wanted to be on, I wanted to be all over the Colts plus seven.
I was ready.
I was sitting there at my odd screen open. I said, here we go. I'll get a seven, six and a half, six and a half. I do four hours of filming yesterday. I log it, I'm like five and a half. Who in the world bet then plus six and a half? Why couldn't you guys just wait? And at five and a half, I'm gonna be really honestly, that makes me sick to my stomach to even contemplate taking the Colts.
I actually did not end up betting them. Sometimes it's okay to pass sometimes to say, you know what, I didn't get the number that I wanted, I'm going to pass. But I will say the Colts are going to be an excellent play. And a lot of pick five contests that I'm in, I'm even in a pick sep and I've got six and a half in all of them because those lines come.
Out Monday and Tuesday.
So right now I have the ability to take a stale number and guess what, every Tom, Dick and Harry in those kinds they're still going to lay six and a half.
With the Chiefs, And so hopefully we can get in there.
Game might land six and I may get lucky to win by the hook, but at five and a half, unfortunately, I don't know what to make of this Colts team. Would I be surprised if the Colts went out right on Sunday? Absolutely not. This is what this Colts team does. But having six quarterbacks over the last six seasons, they just don't have a lot of continuity, and that conurns me here. I do think Frank Wright is a really good coach, and I think he's getting a lot of
grief right now. But he's on the hots and he's got to make moves here. One day, we'll see how it ends up playing out. But unfortunately at five and a half, I do have to pass.
One of my favorite sports betting anecdotes of all time from Vinnie Maulo with Gone Gaming. He said, the advantage that the Better has over the book is the fact that the book has to put up a number and take action on every single game. Yeah, Better can choose which games they want to take, and that's the only true advantage that you're getting there. Passing is a perfectly reasonable thing to do. You don't have to take a
position on every game. But I will say if it does sway anybody's opinion here, Shaquille Leonard and Michael Pittman, they both practiced yesterday. They said they're feeling good. They said it's still a game time decision if they're going to be playing Matt. Is there any way that you're factoring this in here?
Yeah, I'm imagining that this line will get even shorter because I would bet that they both do play and yeah, Kelly, I think absolutely spot on with the idea of taking this in contest because that, yeah, that number six and a half is there, and so we will be getting some nice closing line value if this continues to move down and I have it right around the market right now, I have this at five point twenty five, and you know, if we see those guys in the game, that line
might move a little bit for me as well. So I'm not betting it at five and a half, but six and a half in contest, I think is a really sharp move.
And friend of the Show Captain Jack he pointed out when it comes to contest plays, when you know that people are going to be laying with that six and a half on the chiefs, if you can take the other side in a game like that, if you come out on top, that's like getting two wins instead of one by being able to beat the public so much. Here, guys, real quick, I want to talk to you about Sleeper. Sleeper is the fastest growing fantasy platform today with millions
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dot com for details. But Matt, your next game up on the board, you are going with the Washington Commies, the Commanders six and a half again the Eagles here, and I feel like Carson Wentz has been the least talked about guy who's actually in the top three when it comes to passing yards right now, up there with elite names like Joe Flacco. It's a weird season through two weeks, but you're on the Commanders here.
Yeah, I feel really disgusting doing this, Like I did not want to be on on this game, and if I was going to be on this game, I didn't want to be on this side of it. But yeah, you know, I think that there's significant value on the Commanders in this spot. Nick Sirianni for the Eagles one four and one against the spread in division and divisional underdogs.
You know, this is the time of year. Divisional underdogs in general, I think offer value, especially in the first half of the year, but then really in the first month of the season. Two hundred and five to one, forty six to eleven against the spread divisional underdogs in weeks one through four, and I think it's it's a situation where the Commanders like, yes, we have the narrative
of like the revenge game and all of that. Maybe that factors in a little bit, But really, this interior offensive line for the Commanders, it looks like it's in shambles. But I think it's actually a little bit better of a situation than people might think. So, center Chase Rallier, he's out for the year, as is his backup Tyler Larson, and so that means that we are going to see
a right guard shift over to play tackle. And the thing is this line is also missing its two starting guards from last year, so year over year, they are starting three new players in their interior and that exact trio has never played together as a unit, and going against defensive tackles Fletcher Cox and Javon Hargrave, that looks like a disaster waiting to happen. Even so, I think the Commanders will will do well enough on the interior of their offensive line. So right guard Wesh White's who
is shifting over to center. He's made nineteen starts in the interior for the Commanders since twenty twenty, so he knows the system. Replacing him at right guard is backup Trey Turner, who is a Pro bowler, five time Pro bowler from Carolina, and so he knows the system as well.
And left guard Andrew Norwell, he's new to the team, but he is another Panthers transplant who was an All Pro in twenty seventeen and he and Turner manned the interior of the Panthers offensive line together for four years.
And so even though there are injury issues, there are new starters, Like this is not a typical patchworked unit that you would normally see with having new starters in there, Like, I think there's decent continuity there, and I think those guys will be significant drivers of success for the Commanders. Without Derek Barnett, the edge rusher, the Eagles defense is just number twenty seven in adjusted ZACH rate through two games. So I think there's a decent chance that they could
actually keep Carson Wentz clean in the pocket. And you know, even though the Eagles they went out of their way seemingly this offseason to get better against the run. They drafted defensive tackle Jordan Davis, they added edge Hassan Reddick, linebacker Caaz You're White, they added him in free agency, and drafted to Kobe Dean right, they made these moves to try to get better in run defense, and yet they are still bottom five in run defense in every
key metric. And so if Schweizer, Turner, and Norwal are able to hold their own against Cox and Hardgrave and run blocking, the Commanders could use the Russian game to extend drives, grind down the clock, keep the explosive Eagles offense on the sidelines, and keep the game close. This line was minus one in the preseason market, minus three in the look ahead market.
Last Thursday. It's six and a half, Like, what are we doing? This is a.
Massive overreaction to the fact that the Eagles are two to zero and that they won twenty four to seven in Week two on Monday Night football.
That's what this is. It is a massive overreaction.
And if I lose money betting on this, I'm totally fine doing it, because this line never should have gotten to six and a half in the first place.
Overreactions, Matt overreactions. I'm sorry, but after those Monday Night games, the whole world was here anointing. It is Eagles Philly Super Bowl?
Are you kidding me?
Jalen Hurt, MVP odds got cut in half. Everybody's ready to just crown him MVP. Listen, that game was just terrible all the way around. I wasn't that impressed with the Eagles.
I was more just disgusted with the Viking secondary and well, frankly Kirk Cousins in primetime.
What else is new?
But I'm with you, it's either comeds or pass. I don't know if I have the stuff for it. Come Sunday, I may see. I don't think it's going to get to seven though. I think it's gonna sit here at six and a half because the bookmakers are gonna say, come on, guys, everybody walk up to the window and bet the Eagles, and unless some big time better comes in and bets the Commanders, which they might. You're right, Matt, there's some definite line value there. I just don't really
know what Carson Wentz's identity is yet. And you mentioned that offensive line, and we've seen good Carson Wentz, and we've seen bad Carson Wentz, and we've yet to see good Carson Wentz here in Washington just yet. He had a couple of moments against the Panthers, I guess, but overall, this is not a team that I want to back with my hard earned dollars. If it's a bet, it's a pure numbers play, and I'm just not going to watch.
John Murray is really hoping you're going to take that Washington line. I can tell you that I will say if it truly does end up coming to pass, and I would love for Jalen Hurst to win MVP. I have in all my fantasy teams, so I'm all board that train. But if it comes to pass that we get in Eagles Bill's super Bowl in Phoenix the same weekend as the waste management open City of Phoenix is burning into the ground that's not surviving by any stretch.
But your next game up here is taking the other team from that Monday night match, Kelly, Minnesota, And I'm so glad that you have this one because I really wanted to ask about it. Minnesota right now is getting five and a half?
Is that what we're still looking at here?
I think it's pretty much five and a half on most of most of the world.
I don't have my on screen open.
I apologize, but yeah, I'm seeing five and a half and six.
Yeah, and this to me, I'm of two minds.
On the one hand, it's a massive overreaction of Monday night the Eagles blanketed Justin Jefferson. The Vikings played terrible. They're not going to do that every week. On the other hand, we did just see the Lions, this same Lions team they're going up against here back door the Eagles the week prior, and look a whole lot better against the same team. And I'm kind of loving the
Lions what they've been doing so far this season. But I just don't know if I want to trust him in this spot or if it's a massive overreaction to Minnesota's Monday night performance. Which way are you going on this one?
Yeah, That's exactly where I'm going, I tweeted on.
Monday, I'm like, God, I can't wait to lay it with the Viking this week.
How gross? Of course?
Why would you want to lay points with Kirk Cousins. Well, because it's a morning game, everybody relax. In theory, I'd like to see them be able to get down and look up and running early. Why, because that is how they can open up this offense. The Vikings historically have been great in the NFC North. That's why they were
my pick to start the season. I know the Lions getting everybody so excited that back door cover Week one against the Eagles and starting off, you know, twenty two to nothing because the Commedis couldn't even get a first down until five minutes left in the first half of the game.
Lions do better as the underdog.
I will say that we've seen them be able to pull that off in the past, but I think that this Lion should be closer to eight eight and a half, and so at six, I'm getting a ton of line value here, and I do like this Minnesota team to be.
Able to win the game.
I would have Adam in a teaser when it originally was supposed to be seven and a half, which was a look aheadline. I would have just teased them down below a field goal. But at six and even five and a half, that is not a long teather, so I will not be doing that, but I did lay six. I don't like to see the market move again, but I know why and a lot of people love this Lions team. You watch Hard Knocks, you fall in love
with Dan Campbell. I get that they love Dan too, but I'm not ready to give this Lions team the benefit of the doubt on the road their first road game this year, saying that they should be able to keep it close. I think the Vikings take out some frustration here. Let's hope that that defense can get some stops unlike Monday Night. Well, I should say that they got some stops for me in the second half. But they should be able to make some stops here.
And that is going to be the.
Difference maker between what we've seen from the Vikings versus the Vikings on the road.
The Eagles, they were able to neutralize Justin Jefferson with the blanket coverage by Darius lay Matt. I don't feel like the Lions have the guy that can bottle them up like that?
What say you, yeah?
I will say I am on the other side of this and that I have value on the Lions. I have this line at five. But like I, I understand the biases of my numbers, and like I, I just know entering entering the season. You know, based on what I had in the preseason, I was higher than the market on the Lions and lower than the market on the Vikings, and so that's probably reflected in the numbers. I have now, and like I will, I will freely admit that that I'm just you know, taking a little bit of a
stand uh with this number. Uh And you know, we'll we'll see. But the at least the market has moved towards where I have it projected, so I feel decent about that. But you know, divisional game, I don't feel all that great about this. If I had to bet it, I would be betting Detroit. But for me, this is a stay away.
Great so not much clarity there as you guys are split on this one, and I'll have to still figure out what I want to do here. But Matt, your last game up here, in the last one we're gonna get to here today. The Chargers and the Jaguars. For me, it's all about the Justin Herbert injury. Is he going to be healthy enough.
In this one?
And also Jaguars has kind of been plucky and all of a sudden, Trevor Lawrence is looking like a guy who's taking first. Overall, it's almost like Urban Meyer was the problem down there.
Where are you going?
Almost it's almost like almost.
Not quite not ready to call it.
Yeah, I'm going with the Chargers, and I think I don't know. I think justin Herbert plays he's got three extra days coming off of Thursday night football to recover this. And this isn't like a super great trend, but I found it. So I'm just gonna say it. A team coming off of Thursday night, off of a Thursday night football road loss that is a home favorite twenty four, fifteen and one against the spread. And you know Doug Peterson on the road for his career fifteen and twenty
five against the spread. So like something would say like that is a super strong trend, but like Doug Peterson on the road, he's never really been all that great.
Uh.
So I am I am on uh on the Chargers in this spot, and uh, I think it for me, it really comes down to Tobosa and Mac. I think they combined for multiple sacks in this game, and uh you know they are going. Let me see here if I can pull it up. I don't have my notes here, I got I got distracted at the very end one second. Sorry, totally unprofessional. Let me get to my article.
We've all been there.
But I will say this Chargers are a little scary, uh, just because that's the same team doctor that Tyron Taylor had because you guys, I have horrible fantasy luck, and I keep tweeting him, I keep talking about it that way, like it gets pushed away and like maybe I get some good blocks here. We're two and zero, and of course Justin Herbert goes down in Kansas City and I'm like, my.
God, I knew it. I knew it.
We're gonna We're gonna kill Justin Herbert because I have such a bad curse. So hopefully everything I'm hearing is a goo and Chargers is my is my survivor pick because historically Jackson Well cannot win on the road.
Yeah, all right, all right, coming back, I got it now. So this offseason, the Jaguars definitely took steps to fortify the interior of the offensive line. They drafted center Luke Fortner, They signed right guard Brandon Shurf.
You know with those moves.
Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has had a significant step forward in year over your improvement. But they still have left tackle, left tackle Kim Robinson, and right tackle Jawan Taylor as their offensive line bookings.
And like those guys are average.
And sure like average tackle play is good enough for a lot of teams in the league. They would love to have average tackle play, but that's not good enough against Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. With those two leading,
the Charge nailed it. The Chargers defense is number seven with a nine point two adjusted sack rate, and in our Fantasy pros unut Power rankings, the Chargers defensive line has a massive edge, very massive edge against the Jaguars offensive line, And of course that's primarily because of Bosa and Mack, who already have six sacks combined this year. I think they combined for multiple sacks in this game.
And you know, I think justin Herbert plays, he had limited practice on Wednesday, three extra days to recover, and I'm, you know, relying on the expertise of our in house expert, doctor Depak Chona, he thinks there's about a seventy percent chance that Herbert plays. I'm not going to argue with the doctor. I think it's probably higher than that, given just you know, like how gamer that this this kid is, and so I think if he plays, this line will
move significantly higher once that is announced. In the preseason, this was ten in the look Ahead market before the Chiefs played. Well, sorry, before the Chargers played well against the Chiefs on Thursday Night Football, this line was nine and now it's seven. Like sure, the Jags won twenty forty zero last week over the Colts. That was impressive, but not impressive enough to justify moving this line down
to seven. So I think if Herbert plays, this line moves up to nine, maybe ten, and we get some closing line value there. With Herbert in, I have this projected for nine and a half, so I think that is where this should be.
You want to talk about overreactions, I think that Jaguars Colts game was the biggest overreaction we could have even last year. It's not like they didn't do the exact same thing. I'm with you both here and Kelly, I love this as a Survivor pick. I was gonna ask that's my final question here is where are you guys going for any Survivor picks this week? I'm probably gonna be riding with you, but Matt, do you have a play for us for a survivor?
No one should ever ask me for survivor advice, Like all of my teams have been like killed twice at this point, So whatever I say, just do the opposite of that, so I would say, yeah, Chargers like just eyeballing it. Yeah, Chargers, they got a tough go sorry schedule after this, you know, So this feels like a decent time to use them.
Yeah, And I mean last week I had the Broncos. It can't get much worse. Like I said, the Jaguars just don't win on the road. And I got to hope that Herbert says healthy this has been a blood bath of a Survivor season and.
We're only in week three.
I actually have a double elimination this week in the big money league that I'm in for Survivor.
So I'm taking Chargers and Vikings. I know it's chalky.
Sometimes you got to look towards those short dogs, but this was probably one of the better spots that I had.
To use the Vikings.
I used Miami week one and got lucky enough to squeeze by. And as I mentioned, the Broncos last week was just disgusting, and I'm so glad I don't have to even watch another one of their games for at least another few weeks there. But yeah, I think those are the two best options you have. Other way, I start looking for some of those small home dogs, because there's gonna be another round of upsets.
There's nine home dogs this week.
If you want to lay some chalk with some of those teams on the road and just hope they get out with the way, God bless you, because I can't do it.
I'm looking at one other team here. I have two selections. I'm absolutely taking the Charges in one. I kind of like Atlanta. I know they're on the road versus Seattle, but when am I going to use them again? And this Seattle team is bad against the run. I don't care what the stats say. I was able to see it with my own two wives. This team gets gashed in the run game, and the Falcons are plucky. Look at this resume for an zero to two team. You were hanging right in there with the Rams, and you
were hanging right in there with the Saints. Marcus Mariota and Drake London have a good thing going here. This team's a little better than terrible. And I still don't believe in Gino Smith. I'm still writing him off. He doesn't have to write me back.
I don't hate that I put the Falcons in a bunch of teasers this week, as I mentioned I've just been terrible, so don't quote me on that, but I did lines. Now come down, listen, the Falcons have got to learn how to win a game.
That's the problem.
They shot themselves in the foot a week one against the Saints, and then they came roaring back.
Do you want to blame a little bit of rams defense there?
Or maybe you mentioned maybe Arcus Mariota is definitely a step up from Matt Ryan. I don't hate that pick. That's ballsy. I don't know if I would do it, but I don't hate it. I think that you're right. I think Atlanta gets their first win in Seattle.
That's why I have two picks. I can go back and forth with it. Matt, what do you think?
Yeah, I can see it, you know, in my in my model, I take take points away for having, you know, consecutive road games for different things I have to do with travel, and you know, homefield advantage is a pretty
significant thing for Seattle. But you know what if homefield doesn't mean what it used to for Seattle because their team isn't as good, and you have Atlanta having stayed on the West coast so they don't have to have the travel back east, travel back west, and so like that could shave like a point or maybe even more than that off of the projection that I have, so I can I can see it like I wish I would have bet on Atlanta earlier in the week.
Well, that is going to do it for us here today, Kelly, Thank you so much for joining us. Where can people find you in the fantastic work you're doing?
Of course I'm all over the place right wager Talk dot Com do a lot of the stuff with them on YouTube. We have a show called bet on It, another show called The Hustle. We're going to hang out with my favorite every single Wednesday, and you know, talk about our group chat bets that we have every single week.
And then of course Barstool Sportsbook.
I do a show with Megan making money called money Shots, and we just have a great time. I guess I gotta be the sharp person on that show, only because Megan just obliterates me with some of her takes sometimes and is too.
Witty for my own good.
But lots of fun times this year, and I just got to find some winners because the last couple of weeks have not been good to me.
Well, Hopefully we get some winners this weekend, but that's going to do it for us here, guys, for Kelly and Matt, I'm Tom saying good luck this weekend, and let's cash some tickets.
All right, We're good,