Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris. Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris.
Eighty.
Week two is done. It is time to look ahead to week three and give our three best bets or six if you include our guest, who is my old friend, Alex Kaloj from the Action Network. You can find him on Twitter at aj Kaloj. I'm not going to spell his last name. He can do that for you if you want, Alex. It's been a long time to be caught up. How you doing doing well?
Man, been a couple of years, But excited to chop it up and talk a little Week three with you.
It is very exciting. You do great work over there at the Action Network, so I'm excited to hear about your picks right now so I can trail them and then take credit for them, as I often do with everything that you do. So, as I said, we're going
to do our three best bets for the week. We're gonna whatever we want, spread over under whatever we want to do, even moneyline if we wanted to, and then we're just going to quickly run through all the remaining spreads of the games that we didn't pick talk about whether we like any of them. But before we do, let's get some housekeeping out of the way. First. The offer from bet MGM new customers bet ten dollars, win two hundred dollars if your team scores a touchdown. So again,
you bet ten dollars on either team. You win two hundred dollars in free bets. If the team you bet on scores a touchdown. That's code Juice one hundred. Again, I've given this before.
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The Daily Juice is our other podcast hosted by Matt Perrault. Again Daily Podcasts would you should be subscribing to, But the code is Juice one hundred over at bet MGM. Finally, we are giving away a sign to a tongue of Iloa Jersey. All you need to do to be entered is to leave a roof for the podcast on Apple Podcasts or cashbox and then go to Bettingpros dot com slash review if you're subscribed to the Betting Pros YouTube channel over at YouTube dot com slash betting Pros, and
that counts as three times be entry. All right, we're gonna get going here. I will give the consensus lines over at bettingpros dot Com just so everybody knows. But there are obviously different books which you can also see last week Bill. Very quickly, let's go through what we did. Our guest Rich Ryan. He hit on the Panthers plus three and a half, not close, but he did miss on the Jaguars plus six and the Texans Browns under
forty seven and a half. I hit on the Vikings getting three and a half from the Cardinals, the Titans getting five and a half from the Seahawks, but I missed on the Dolphins getting three and a half from the Bills. Narrow miss by thirty two points. But that's fine. We're gonna do better this week. Alex, you were the guest start us off. What is your favorite bet for Week three of the NFL season.
Yeah, my favorite bet is, unfortunately, the one game on the board that I scanned and said, well, they're gonna be like fifteen hundred yards and a combined point total like thirty just because and that was the Cardinals Jags over fifty two. I honestly thought it was just a soft number at open. It kind of scares the hell out of me that there's bet and zero resistance on
the total. But this is basically the epitome of if the Jaguars are going to be the team that stops the Cardinals and Kyler Murray, I will pay to watch it happen. I had a good buddy who made a pretty good point. Although it's a cross country trip and an early star for a West Coast team, it's gonna be hot in Florida and a defense that's been on the field for a long time has to chase around
a quarterback that can't be tackled. The Jaguars defense, to me, is just absolutely awful and has been overshadowed with the Urban and Trevor Lawrence news. They played Tyrod Taylor and Teddy Bridgewater, two quarterbacks who are allergic to YPA, I mean, two of just bland game managers, and they both just riped the Jaguars up. So to me, this was just a play of I think the Cardinals are gonna score. It will not really a much of a hot take there.
They've done whatever they wanted the last two weeks and they look like they're having fun. And admittedly I'm not a big Cliff Kingsbury guy, but he just it just seems like he's actually having fun, and they're using every single receiver that they have and again having fun in the process. And really the only upside for Jet the Jaguars offense here is being able to throw the ball, so a lot of Trevor Lawrence passing attempts. I think if you like the over, you have to like the
Cardinals and vice versa. This seemed very correlated to me. But the first bet I played this week was the over fifty two, and I was pretty content with doing it.
Yeah, I mean, you think Cardinals offense right now looks pretty much as good of an offense as again, even if you contain them somehow for like a moment. Murray is going to find a way right now with him being one hundred percent, And we can't count on that all year, right because it's like, guy, take some hits
and everything like that. But right now with DeAndre Hopkins, AJ Green, Withever, Christian Kirk, I'm completely obsessed with Rondell Moore and I have been basically right since he was drafted. Just here's my dude. So they are going to put up points without that. It's really just a matter of whether or not the Jaguars can as well. And at the very least there's going be garbage time in this game where Lawrence is gonna get to throw. So I am with you. I'm looking over at bettingpros dot com.
The over eighty three percent of our people, of our experts who are taking it are with the over. So I'm with you. I'm gonna tral it and if it hits them taking credit for it. And there's nothing you can do about it.
Because you know what's funny, Dan, The only the only downside of this handicap is, oh darn, the Jaguars won't have a pass rush, so Kyler can't run around for fifty yards and chuck chuck ninety yard broken place to rondelmore, Oh darn, Like you know that might not happen.
It's difficult. He's just gonna have to do it like normally and stand in the pocket, in a clean pocket and throw ninety yard touchdowns. That way, it's gonna be fine.
But I agree with you, it's it's funny that almost benefits, right because the broken plays, and you've seen them happen in each of the cardinals first two games, like those result in giant plays going forward, So that is something that maybe you can count as a negative, but either way, man like this is this is gonna go over obviously. You know i'd over in their first game against the Titans. That should have gone over as the way I like to say it was, you knowway through the third quarter
they needed one point, they didn't get it. But I really think that this is a good bet. I'm with you here. I have also selected the over in the betting pros app so hopefully it goes now. I'm very interested to get your take on my best bet. I do not know which way sort of the you know, sharp betters are going with this people in the know. I actually haven't heard that many people talk about it.
Maybe I have missed it, but to me, it's a line that when I saw come out, I was going to take it, and it hasn't moved and I understand why. And it's the Eagles. They're now getting three and a half, but it vacillates between three and four, so one or the other. But the Eagles getting more than a field
goal against the Cowboys. I get that the Eagles last week were a little disappointing, like of course, but I think that's much more about the forty nine ers and their defense being stronger than people give them credit for, just because they let the Lions get back into it after the lines were completely dominated throughout the game, which I think was more of them kind of taking it easy,
taking their foot off the gas pedal. And I think if Jalen Rager doesn't step out of that touchdown, then that winds up being a touchdown that that really could have changed the game. Now, the Cowboys come off the big win against the Chargers, and I admit I didn't like them in that game. I thought that the Chargers win that game and basically covered the three point spread. It wasn't one of my best but either way, it's one season. Okay, we've seen Mike McCarthy for a long time.
You look at what he did last year, one in five against the spread individual games, oh and five as home favorites. Now I get it like that, no Dack, but the lines are taking into account that Ben Denucci was the starting quarterback at one point, Like, those are the lines, and I just don't have a lot of
faith in McCarthy as the head coach. We've also got a Mark Cooper really banged up with the ribs, and I'm sure you know, like rib injuries are tough, They're very difficult to play through, especially like that while Collins is out, Marcus Lawrence is out, the Cowboys are just a little banged up. It's not all great for the Eagles. Eagles are banged up too. They've got Brandon Brooks and
brand and Graham both placed on IR this week. But I've been a fan of Jalen Hurts is, you know, maybe not the greatest passer in the world, but I think, you know, with the way Sirianni designed this offense in the offseason, I think it's going to accentuate what he can do. And I'm more sort of looking out that last week as sort of saying the forty nine ers have a really good defense. I don't think suddenly the Eagles were exposed. It's the nfcast. The games are usually tight.
I see this as closer to a field goal game, and I understand the public loves the Cowboys, but I don't know, man, I want to hear your take on this because for me, I like the Eagles getting more in the field goal in this game.
The over fifty one and a half to me just missed the cut of my three plays, mainly because I think when you're starting with Cowboys totals, you have to start baseline fifty two and drawing the Eagles, I thought you were going to work your way up, not down. So to me, I thought that number was short. It
did make my card. I will say, though, Philadelphia to me is a team that already and we saw it as early as last week, already has some market support after Week one, a team that really, I mean, if we look back at preseason win totals, had one of the lowest win totals, wasn't really thought of as as a threat to the NFC East at all. And then we turn around week two, they're getting what three and a half? Three and a half at home to the to the Niners, a team that's projected to win like
eleven games this season. So it seems like the Eagles were a team right off the bat that just immediately received support from the market and was going to be a lot better than the market projected it, you know, a couple of weeks ago. I have no interest in laying chalk with Dallas in the spot. Mike McCarthy is bound to make multiple coaching mistakes again again, no interest in laying more than a field goal on in division with that defense that didn't force a punt last week. It just can't do it.
But you don't. But you don't. You are not on the Eagles right like you don't because again I I'm not, Like I'm looking at our bed analyzer, fifty seven percent of experts are taking the Eagles, so that, I mean, that's a pretty even split generally speaking. But this is not a bet I hear anybody talking about. It's not a bet I hear anybody want or anything like that to me. I don't know, man, I may be completely like my perception of the Eagles maybe just completely off
generally speaking. We so I've mentioned this before, but the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association does a prop bet league where you draft prop bets. Okay, I won it last year.
To think, my first bet, or one of my first bets is here was sirianni at Coach of the Year and it was just something where again that that's a lot of the way you bet Coach of the Year, and there's a lot of you know, details about it why it's sort of fit and there's a limited number of situations that usually will allow for a Coach of the Year. But I also thought that I from what I've known about Sirianni, I really like them. I think if the Eagles sort of always deal with a ton
of injuries if they can avoid it. They're already dealing with injuries unfortunately, but if they can avoid major ones, they add DeVante Smith, you give them an entire year to build an offense around Jalen Hurts his strength. This is a team that could really surprise some people. And I know Atlanta wasn't great like you know in Week one, and they're not a great team, but they kind of hung with the Bucks, right like they outgained the Bucks.
It's just sort of the two pick six is. I don't think Atlanta is quite as bad as the Eagles made them look. I think realistically the forty nine ers are just better than people are giving them credit for, which is why the Eagles struggled. I think the Eagles win this game outright, So I mean, for me, I will take more than a field goal. But again, this does not sound like a game that you are on on either side. Right Well, I will.
Say this, Dan, I'm interested to see how the number moves not only throughout the week, but Sunday too. If if the books have some sort of big decision or you know, favorites are constantly winning, and we start seeing some money in coming in in Dallas's favor, we could possibly see some fours popping up. So again, not necessarily a number that stood out to me right away, but again, if it's any consolation, I wouldn't lay any chalk with Dallas at home in division primetime game against a dual
threat quarterback. I just have no faith in the defense right now. Or Mike McCarthy, he made another Like I was in the airport last week, and I'm not trying to be a nip. People like Mike McCarthy just makes a bonehead move and I'm just like standing there, like looking around, like wondering if anybody is watching the same exact game that I'm watching. It's just it's really unnecessary. It's gonna come back to kill this team, and I
wouldn't be surprised if it's this weekend. It's going it's inevitable.
Dan, I don't need your consolation, man, I don't need you. I don't need you telling me like, hey man, look it's all right, I don't mind. I don't mind being in the I'm in the majority technically actually because as I said, fifty seven percent. But yeah, this is really
something Alex worth this weekend. I feel like my feelings on the Eagles are either going to be validated or shown to be incorrect because this is a week against a banged up Cowboys team coming off a big win, and I get it, and it's Monday night and whatever in a divisional game. If they lose this game by more than three points A, I'm going to be really surprised. B. I think I'm gonna say, Okay, maybe I'm wrong in the way I'm evaluating them, but again, and this is
my favorite bet. I've been on this since that I looked at the opening line. It was there were fours and three and a halfs. It hasn't moved all week as far as I can see, So I'm excited about it. But let's get to your second bet, which I will hate, but I will give you a consolation of I won't take the other side.
Okay, Hey, thanks Dan, Yeah, let's take TV. I took Tampa bat pick to me, this is the optimal time to sell the Rams defense last year, Pitt Washington, we're the best at creating havoc getting after the passer. But when you look at basic peripher roles, standard downs and stuff, LA was fantastic with Brandon Staley number one in a lot of different metrics. And so you look at who they've played so far, Chicago, Andy Dalton. Watching that game, I wouldn't say it was a bad game or a
good game. They just basically gave Andy Dalton whatever he wanted. Dalton doesn't push the ball down the field. They were content with just letting him throw dank and dunks against the Colts. I bet the over last week against the Colts, and that game was hard to watch because of Carson Wentz. And I don't think Indianapolis has that grid of a of a receiving corpse, to be completely honest with you. And they move the ball. They move the ball oftentimes
at will. And so really, if there was any downside to this handicap, it's the you know, cross country trip whatever. But honestly, if this is Tom Brady, if there's any quarterback that's going to defy any sort of trend or angle like that, it's going to be TV and to be honest, watching him play the last two weeks, he just you know, it sounds cliche, but he just looks like he wants to play football and like is actually trying, and they can't run the ball, and I would expect him.
You know, he's played Aaron Donald before, he's played this defense before. He's not going to get sucked into the pass rush and he's not going to throw Jalen Ramsey's way ten times a game. So there are ways around the defense. I think it's the perfect time to sell. I think the Rams team total under could be a good look based off of who they've played so far. To me, I thought this was a really cheap price, and I don't think you're gonna a lot of spots to bet Tampa Bay at a number like this. To
be honest, I know this sounds kind of weird. I would have played Tampa Bay up to minus three plus one hundred. And the only reason I say that is because I don't think we were ever going to see a three in the market, just because if you flip that around, we're essentially applying implying that Tampa Bay would be like a you know, seven, seven and a half
point home favorite and that's just not gonna happen. And so this line, to me, I think there's a lot of value on Tampa Bay good time to sell the Rams defense, So I thought it was a cheap price to play the box.
I agree with you there there at the lines moving a little bit, there's a lot of one and a half's now out there. But that's I'm glad you brought that up because I was gonna ask, like, what is the number you will play it up to? Because I think this number is going to continue to climb incrementally. I don't think it gets to three or anything like that, but I do think that it's going to continue to
rise up. I agree with you in this one. Now, Antonio Brown is probably going to be out in this game, which takes away one of the weapons necessarily, and that you know, when you have a couple of down cornerbacks like the Rams have, that does make a difference because there is like the third option is out. But I
agree with you in this game. And look last game, right, like the Colt could have won that game, right, I mean right, they started off right up down the field and and didn't convert, you know, in that in that first one, so go ahead.
I was gonna say, I believe it was two trips into the red zone one rack, one was a fumble, the other was a turnover on downs. And I remember at that point my brother was looking at me and he was like, hey, sorry, you didn't deserve that, you know, because I had you over. But at the same time, you know, there was little resistance, and Carson Wentz didn't play that great of a game. He was he was
making some very very dumb mistakes. You played Andy Dalton, and you played Carson Wentz, and now you got to play a Tom Brady. This is a huge step up in competition for a defense that I think is again just the perfect time to sell off.
Yeah. No, I'm agree, and I'd be surprised if Daryl Henderson plays in this game as well. And I know people are like, well, whatever, but Sony Michelle is not a pass catcher, even though his stats last year suggested he could be necessarily. But it's not the same caliber of back coming out of that backfield, so that does make a difference as well. I'm in agreement with you if you can take Brady like with the way that team is playing, with the way Brady is playing, there
aren't that many. I remember last I mean, they were favorite, obviously, but I remember last year when Baltimore was laying a few points to Mahomes, and I remember being like, if you're telling me that I'm going to catch points with Patrick Mahomes, I'm just going to accept it. I'm not
gonna do. And this sort of feels like to me, as good as the Rams are, if you're gonna at this point, with the way he is playing and with the way that entire team is playing, if you're gonna give me like they're laying a point and a half with the with the Bucks, I'll take that day of the week. So I hate to agree with you, but I am agreeing with you. I'm going to give myself a reason to watch my team, and I'm going to go with the Jets and the Broncos, and I'm going
to go. I'm just checking to make sure it's still there. It was forty one and a half last time I saw, which is a low over under, and I don't care because I'm going with the under. I'm just checking to make sure it has not moved. Give me a second, is totally fine. I just checked up. But now I'm very nervous. I know it's still forty one and a half beautiful eighty percent by the way of our experts are on the over. Don't care. Okay, I'm going with the under. Both teams here, let's take a step back
of how bad the Jets are. Nobody really cares, but let's take a step back. Both of these teams play slow. That's like we can just start there. We know that from watching both of them. They're you know, low down and pace the play and everything like that. Teddy Bridgewater is general it's Teddy covers of course, but generally leans towards the unders because again, doesn't he's not explosive. He
doesn't push the ball downfield. It's not like his teams are scoring at will and in a matter of seconds. It's not like a Patrick Mahomes type of offense. These are slow, methodical drives that take time off the clock. So the clock's gonna bleed here. You look at how they played so far. Forty points in Game one against the Giants, and that took a last second touchdown to get there, thirty six in Game two against the Jaguars.
The Broncos have a very very good defense, as we know generally speaking, when you go to Denver early in the season, very difficult on the road team. But they, you know, the Broncos aren't exactly acclimated to it either. So you could say, well, that's gonna hurt the defense. I think that's just gonna make it for sloppy play all around. My guess is when you have a quarterback who throws four touchdowns, that what you're gonna say is let's get a little conservative here on offense and let's
slow it down. Let's use the run game as much as we can, Let's take shorter throws, let's not push it. That's a lot of what I see. He So, I think what you have is an offense that is very bad with the Jets. You have a defense that is very solid with the Broncos. The Broncos have a decent offense, not overly explosive or anything like that. Especially without Jerry Judy.
They'll be able to put up some points. But again, this strikes me as a game like my guess is like this is gonna be the first game to reach halftime. When they get there, right, it's gonna be like, oh, look at that. The debts are going You're gonna have other games with like six minutes left in the second quarter, So I think a slow paced game where the total winds up being like thirty seven, thirty eight in the end, like whatever. So it's forty one and a half. It's
a low total. I get it. I'm still going with the other with the under.
I'm hoping for a suppressed total because admittedly I've just been waiting for a spot to buy low on the Jets offense to take an over but road game in altitude versus a defense that's probably gonna finish, you know, top ten in the top third of you know, every match of possible.
Titans next week, Titans next week. Go go with the over there. That's when you got it all right.
Oh look, the by low spot came as early as week four. If we're gonna give the Jets any benefit of the doubt, they've played two pretty good defenses to start in Carolina and New England, and this isn't a get right spot at all again, cross country, ship and altitude. The offensive line sucks. The offensive line, to not mince words,
is terrible. And Zach Wilson, who threw off his back foot, probably more than anybody at by you last year is already starting to see that pattern trickle over in the NFL. So again, to me, I didn't have a play in this game. The only reason I didn't have a play in this game is because you can't make a total end of the thirties nowadays in the NFL. You just can't. And so I would have liked to grab the twelve and a half if I would have been quick enough.
Yesterday it dropped to eleven. I missed the boat I'm at, but the number to me looked right. I will be rooting for you. To me, I could find any reason to playing over in the NFL, I love I can leisurely find a way to play an over. I don't see any angle whatsoever. To be honest in what I usually do is I'll find an over in the afternoon slate. That's so I could root for it while while watching Red Zone. I don't have a single one in the afternoon slate, and you couldn't. You couldn't pay me to
bet this over. It's it's going to be ugly, like it looks ugly on paper, gonna look even uglier on the field.
Why I love having you as a guest because even when you don't support me, you were able to talk enough and say enough things that I can like pull out things and be like, I feel like Alex is on board with this bet. I'm gonna go with it, even though you're just like I wouldn't go the other way. You know, go ahead, you're trying, you want to say something, It's fine, Go well.
It's just funny because when I look at these games, if I don't have a plan a game, usually as the week goes on, I'm talking to myself. I talk myself into a side or a total. I just I really can't find an angle. I laid it with New England last weekend and I tried to find every every
possible way to play the over and I couldn't. And again, I just I know, I'm kind of spit on and reiterating, but I am looking for a spot to play the Jets over because it's it's a very very underrated angle to to buy low and sell high on totals just because of the lack of holatility. You're not gonna see a lot of extremes for over, and you're not gonna see a team like thirteen and three to the over. Like this, this this trend is gonna snap. It's just
a matter of having the right partner for it. And when you said Tennessee next week, ill I can think of us. Oh my god, aj Brown, that's wild. And you know how you have it the you know, the the Denzel Mims breakout game that we've all done, Brax and Barrios going for for ten for one hundred and seven and three. It's coming, it's coming in week four.
But you know, I'll tell you when there's when there's a game that I'm gonna go opposite with you if I go if I got a bump with you, Dan, But but this it just it isn't We're on the same page here. Again, I can't bet the over in this game. The under is the under and the dog to me are the only plays in the game.
Yeah. Oh, we talked about that, like whatever the spread is eleven and a half or whatever, eleven and a half point spread with a forty one and a half point over under, it is just nuts like that. You know, that's just insane. But yeah, look and again I certainly you know whichever way you want or anything like that. I hate your next bet, whatever it is. I don't even know what it is, but it's fine, So it's
totally fine. I approved your previous bets. I don't even know what your third bet is yet, so we'll get there just in a second. I assume it's going to be an over then right, because you're all right, go give it to giving me a third.
Bet I played. I played Cleveland Chicago over forty six. And my reasoning behind this was, naturally, when you when you get news that a starting quarterbacks is going to go out, and we've seen a lot of it this week, like everybody's going down car Big Ben Fields, and we've seen Carson Wentz as well, and we've seen the same exact trend and all four games, and that's the public's
hit the total and we've seen the total drop. However, this total drop from forty six and a half to forty five and a half and then there was immediate buyback on the over to forty six, and that was enough for me to make a play on it. And really, Dalton, Dalton can move up and down the field. But when I bet an over, and when I'm expecting points and I need points, trading and swapping out Dalton for fields as big playability is a perfect trade off in my opinion.
So while he's raw, and you know, maybe the playbook isn't as open, you're gonna have those big plays that we saw at Ohio State. Like I try and envision the Bears offense, I'm a Bears fan. I can't tell you the last time that a receiver's just run wild down the post for like an eighty yar time. It just doesn't happen. I think the last to do that was like Johnny Knox back in two thousand and fourteen. But you get a big playability against a Browns defense
that's been terrible against the pass. They've given up a bunch of splash plays against the pass. I know you played Kansas City and we're in a negative game script against Houston, But again, you have field here who could actually make the place. If it was Dalton, you'd have no problem, but now you have to actually defend all the quadrants of the field. Cleveland, meanwhile, I think, is the best overplay in the NFL right now. They seem very twenty twenty billsy in the sense that they're just
gonna score forty every game. And you never really know what you're gonna do in the playoffs, but you get a team that just wants to be a world beater during the regular season, and Kevin Stefansy to me, has shown that. And even though they're down a bunch of skilled players, like they're still running the ball at an unbelievably successful rate with Chubb. There's still skill players that can make plays. It's not really an offense that's predicated
on needing a bunch of wide receivers. And so the Bears defense to me, hasn't looked all that great on paper. It's like, oh, the Bears defense monsters are the midway, Like they're not that good. Like I'm I'm a Bears fan, Like, i don't think they're that good. They're not that intimidating, you know, like in the years past. So to me, this dropping a point and then seeing some immediate buyback
on the over was pretty telling. I think this is a good spot to play the over, and I'm excited to do so in fields his first game.
So yeah, this is really an interesting one for me because you're right, it's weird with Cleveland, right, they're just down non stop playmakers, right, obviously Darbus Landers on MYRT. There was a report today after Beckham practice fully yesterday that he's going to be another game time decision. So this is surprising to me, But it doesn't matter because
that offensive system is it what it? You know, go with Austin Hooper and David Joku and the running backs and you've got enough to basically score at will because that offensive line is great for me. I wonder though, I mean what, I guess, what do you expect from
Field in this first game? To me? When I have a guy like Fields, especially with his rushing ability, I think his first game is something that lends itself towards an overplay because I think like they don't know how to defend him number one, they don't know exactly what they're going to see. It's really hard to build a game plan against someone like Fields in his first game. So I personally also could see the Bears putting up points here. Is that? Do you like it better? Considering
it's his first game? Do you think that lends itself to more points? Well?
I think the biggest takeaway here is when you watched last week, like dalviin was orchestra in the offense, pretty well. They were moving the ball pretty well over Cincinnati with fields coming in mid game. Everything kind of slowed down with him having a full week to prepare and you know, you're on the road. Cleveland's defense to me is it's okay,
they're pieces, they can after the quarterback. But I think just the recipe of what you're looking for, a Cleveland defense that gives up big plays could have suppressed Andy Dalton. But to me, this is a huge breakout game for Chicago skill players. Like we talk, I mean, I'm sure you hear all the time too. Being so tucked in with fantasy, you know, guys like Darnel Mooney and Alan Robinson being as underrated as he is, Like you're just waiting for these guys to pop off and taking a
closer look at Chicago. Like Dalton used to push the ball when he was with the Cincinnati he had no choice, Like he he would throw the ball recklessly in Cincinnati. Ever since last year, I don't know why, he just hasn't pushed the ball down the field. He hasn't been a good over bet. He doesn't apt, but he's not enticing to bet over the total as he once was.
To me, I was just really excited to bet a change of pace, a quarterback who could really push the ball down field, and who wants to push the ball offield. He has some skill players to make the plays. I guess a pretty subpard defense. So down to forty five and a half up the tick up to forty six. I thought it was pretty dead, a pretty dead number. So I went over the total and you know, it probably isn't the biggest edge that I have, but it
was more so I wanted to play the number. I thought the market liked the over at forty six, and just you know, it's just a rooting for a fresh change of pace with fields undersetterer.
To be honest, that's fun. I don't hate it whatsoever. I would pretend that I did, but I can't. You're a decent fellow. But here's what I want to talk about is my final bet, which another one that number one. I feel like the books are begging me to take because they want me to take it. They think it's the wrong side. And I don't hear anybody who I trust in the betting landscape taking this game. And I need you to explain why to me, so we will get there. And that is the Titans at home laying
five to the Colts. There is only two reasons I can see that you might be scared off of this game if you want to bet the Titans. The first is that the Colts are just like the most esperate team that you could possibly have. Right now, right they're on and two they lose again here to the Titans. By the way, you can hear in the back that is my garage door opening. That happens once every podcast because I podcast in the room above my garage door.
Don't worry about it. Number one, that they're desperate, their season is on the line. They lose this game, they fall to zer three, they've lost to the Titans. That's a really, really bad thing. Number two, it's a division game. A division game is always unpredictable. You never know how it's going to go. It may stay as close as possible, so you might not want to go after it. That's fine. But for me, dude like Carson Wentz, I could be wrong. I don't expect Carson Wentz to play this game. I mean,
at this point right he's in practice today. He's got two ankle sprains. One of them is a high ankle spring. He's a tough dude. He tries to play through, but there's just no way I see this happening, which means it's probably going to be Jacob Easton and Hunley because they're splitting snaps. Are you going to go with both of them in this game? Is that what the game plan is? The Cults are an okay team. Okay, they're
not great. Even with Wentz, they're an okay team. They've allowed four point three yards per carry to opposing running backs Chris Carson and Darryl Henderson. That is fine, but the Titans run defense obviously locked up Chris Carson in this last game, even though he scored two touchdown. The Colts pass defense has not been good. Xavier Roads has not played yet. I don't think he's going to play in this game. You misspracticed yesterday. They've allowed two hundred
and fifty five point five passing yards per game. Again, Rams and Seahawks, so two good passing offenses. But the thing is you attack. If you're the Colt you can attack Titans more through the air than on the ground. Their secondary not great. Genoris Jenkins, Christian Fulton, Chris Jackson, but we talked about the Colts pass catchers, and they're not that impressive. I mean, I like Michael Pittman junior.
You know, Zach Pascal's fine, but you're not going to be able to attack them through the air with Jacobson and Hunley like you're just not I don't understand why this spread isn't moving, And this seems like the books just desperately want me because if anything, it's gone down. It was five and a half on Monday. It's five
right now, the consensus line that I'm looking at. So perhaps you can explain to me why I'm totally misreading this game and why should I have any faith that either Eastern or Hunley is going to be able to put up any points?
Yeah, I really can't. Although Indianapolis to me looks like and you could look at the the win loss record as it is, but I don't think there's a team that's been more disappointing than Indianapolis. It just even with Wentz healthy last weekend, like there were parts, like you said, they almost won the game, but it just didn't look very fluid, and there were just times when he was running for his life and you know, not having t y Hilton there, like you said, Michael Pittman becomes your
number one receiver. Love Michael Pittman. He was fantastic at USC, but you know, he's just he. I don't think he's ready to be the number one wide receiver. And this is still a road game, the first, their first road game playing outdoors all year, so there's that. Honestly, I was gonna play the over in this game earlier in the week, didn't and then all of a sudden saw it crater and didn't know why. Come to find out that Wentz not only sprained one of his ankles, but
both of them. Like, I don't know how the guy's walking right now, let alone game planning. So I'm not really sure why there's no resistance. You know, teams that are zero to two against the spread dating back to like the last eleven years are covering it like a sixty two percent clip in week three. So you know, if you want to play the trend's game, that's fine, but.
I would with Wentz. I'm not kidding if Wentz were healthy. That trend is meaningful to me, because I mean, I do see I have seen that trend, and I think so too. It's just like it's like and perhaps the spread at five, and it probably is. I think maybe baked in the uncertainty with Wentz when I when I looked at it on Monday, because we knew he was potentially hurt. But I don't know, man, I expected this
to move and we talked about it on Monday. We do a look ahead, you know, on the lines, and Andrew Cayley and I both said, like, I would expect this to move towards six six and a half, assuming that it's going to be Jacob eeson, and it just hasn't moved. So it feels like they just want me to take this number and I can't. I've really figured out.
Yeah, could be a good spot to to fade the Colts offense just in general. I know Tennessee's been awful, but because of the shootouts that they've played the last two weeks, you're gonna start to see some numbers pop up on their opponent's team total overs that just make no sense. And if you know, if you're Jacob E's in running the show without tuy Hilton and at receiving corpse, I don't care if it's Tennessee, you know, You're not
gonna put up twenty four points. You're not. You known anything twenty one and a half or better might be good. So it doesn't make any sense to me. Usually you can there's some writing on the wall. You can read the tea leaves to the injury report. Throughout the weeks. To me, went spraining both of his ankles, like just to me, sounded painful. It's just it's just he's not gonna play, like I mean, he's got and one of them is a high ankle spring.
The high ankle springs are like four to six weeks and they're like he's out for all intenda if he plays, by the way, if he plays at this point, I don't know how great I feel about it anyway, because like you said, like it's he's not gonna be able to move, and part of it is his mobility, Like that's part of what makes him a decent NFL quarterback. But he's going to be just a statue back there that that's not gonna be good for them anyway.
He was running for his life last week. Yeah, you know, it would be very it would be very Titansy to lose Week one, go on the road, week to beat Seattle, then come back and just lay an egg at home.
Very true, very true, very true, very true. Well, like I said, I if wins were healthy, it would be something where I would just be like, just the feel of the game doesn't feel right, letdown game after that big win, like you know, and again we talked about like the Colts could be easily won that game last week against the Rams if a couple of things had broken right. So it's not as if they're a terrible team,
but there will coach everything like that. But again, this is something where part of me just feels like I don't know whether or not the models that the books he is always properly take into account the downgrade in quarterbacks that come. Sometimes I do. Sometimes you see massive moves, but a lot of times it's very much like, oh,
this is worth two points. But for me, I guess they must have been factoring it in from the start and the fact that it hasn't moved and it doesn't look like it's overly I mean, sixty four percent of our experts are taking the Titans, but it's not overwhelming or anything like that, So I get it. It's this weird sort of five number right, five, five and a half. You don't really know what to do with that number, but so.
Dead number more likely trending towards six than it would to fall to four a full point a half. And even if Wentz does play it, like you said, one high ankle sprained in another bad ankle against you know, even against the defense that can't cover anybody. You know, he has to make plays with his legs. A lot of his is making play with plays with his legs. So huge step down in competition for the Titans at home,
good chance to go to it. Honestly, if you're the Titans, you're two and one after what's transpired the last couple of weeks, you'd take that.
Yeah. And again I've sort of been vocal about the fact that I think a lot of the Titans issues, at least early on. In that first game against Arizona was a lot of because they didn't get to practice at all with COVID. And even in the second game, AJ Brown had won the worst games I've ever seen them play. You know, they could have, you know, put up more points, certainly against Seattle in that game. So their defense is not great, their secondary is not great.
But it really hasn't been great for a couple of years, and they still managed to put it up. So I do think the Titans win here, and I do think that they cover the spread. So let's very briefly before we get to the rest of the spreads and just run through them and see if you like any of them at all or have any value. Let's briefly recap.
I'll do it again at the end. You like Arizona and Jacksonville to go over fifty two, the Bucks to cover the one point spread against the Rams, and the Browns and the Bears to go over their total of forty six. I am taking the Eagles getting three and a half from the Cowboys, the Jets and the Broncos to stay under forty one and a half, and the
Titans laying five to the Cults. I really, really am excited about the prospect of rooting for the Jets for finally, since I'm a Jets fan, to not score points and for them to like rip off like you know, three touchdowns or something like that, back to back. That'll be a good show. Then on Monday, I'm all right, let's run through some of the remaining spreads. Just let me know what if you have any thoughts on it. The Washington football team visiting the Bills, the Bills laying seven and a.
Half points, I bet over forty five and a half. Again, just another Bilo spot on Buffalo. I don't think Washington's defense is as good as it was last year behind a pretty fraudulent schedule, and we've already kind of seen some chinks in the armor to start. So I think Buffalo if Josh Allen hopefully sees more man covers this
week and lights him up. Taylor Heinekey to me, you know, I covered the Conference USA a couple of years ago, and you know I could firmly say as a big Taylor Heinikee fan out of ODU, you know I must have beten countless ODU overs back in college, just waking up on Saturday mornings and trying to lock in bets, you know, betting over seventy and a half against Marshall every week. But I bet over forty five and a half non conference game. Both defenses to me, I think
can be exploited through the year. I went over forty five and a half. A terrible bet, but I bet it.
Matt, you always want to hear that from somebody who's giving betting bets a terrible bet, terrible I'm doing it anyway. All right, let's set these Steelers at home laying three to the Bengals. Total is forty four.
I thought the total was a little low, but again, Roethlisberger's pack injury kind of kept me off of it. Waiting for a spot to bet Pittsburgh's over, But don't think this is going to be the week for it.
You talked about the total in this game, but what do you think about the Cardinals laying seven and a half in Jacksonville to the Jaguars.
I would have grabbed seven. I just didn't really have any interest in laying two scores on the road, just because with my luck, the cross country trip against the worst team in the league will prove to be the kryptonite for Cliff Kingsbury.
How about the Ravens visiting the Lions. The Ravens are laying eight. The total is fifty.
Yeah, I took over fifty. It's a sucker bet. But Detroit can't stop anybody. Baltimore looks formidable in both facets of the game. I know Lamar kind of came up a little bruised after that that hip.
Yep, yeah it did in practice. Yeah, if you flip into the end zone and you bruise your hip, oh yeah, that doesn't go over well. So I'm sure he'll he'll play.
Yeah, And honestly, Baltimore's there. The secondaries looks really spotty, to be honest with you. Just a lot of bodies, a lot of key bodies down and you know Jered Goff jerreed golf. But you know he's throwing the ball and if they can't get after if they can't get after him, and you know he could he could slice apart. We saw him, Yeah, make some big plays against San Francisco. I went over fifty, all right.
This was one, I'll be honest, it was. It was on the cutting room floor, but it made one of my final thoughts. Here. The Falcons are visiting the Giants. The Falcons are getting three. The total is forty seven and a half. I leaned towards the Falcons getting three in this game. Ultimately I didn't pick it.
What do you think I did? I took the Falcons plus three. That was the second or third bet that I made this week. Just didn't agree with it. It Giants minus one yep, didn't fit. That's pretty much it. I don't think the Giants have done anything to warrant
being three point favorites and landed. To me, if they're serious about the season, this is kind of their last gasp too, and no real better way to do it than against you know, a team that can't really break off explosive plays, played a dual threat quarterback in Tom Brady, and I need to play Daniel Jones and a bunch of wide receivers that can't get separations. So you know, I think this is a good spot.
How about the Chargers visiting the Chiefs. Chiefs are laying six and a half. The total is fifty four and a half. There's some fifty five's out there as well.
I will never bet at the Los Angeles Chargers game for the rest of my life that no team, no team in the NFL, goes out of their way to make my life a living hell more than the Los Angeles Charger.
I bet.
I bet the Chargers in the over last week. They didn't punt and they didn't go over or cover. So I have completely written off the Chargers.
Okay, all right, how about like, we're not talking about the over under on this one because you mentioned it before. But the Browns are laying seven to the Bears. Any value there, Yeah, it looked right. No real interest in the spread, but I do think the total is a good look all right? How about the Saints laying no I'm sorry, the Patriots laying three to the Saints and the total is forty two.
Both numbers to me looked right, and God, both teams are just so polar opposite from to you know, if this game is played two years ago, the total is probably what fifty two? Just too big, too many unknowns, too too big of an adjustment to really have an edge there. So I passed as that.
I the Raiders are home laying four and a half to the Dolphins with the total forty four, no two in this game, what do you think?
I really wanted to lay to lay the chalk with the Raiders, but they're a team that I could see throwing up a dut after that after two big wins. Didn't really have any interest. I thought the over could have been a good play at forty four and a half, but many too many injuries under center to know how that game script's gonna go.
Yep, stay away from me as well. Actually, the Seahawks visiting the Vikings. The Seahawks are one and a half point favorite and the total is fifty five and a half.
I don't I'm not gonna play it, but I would have played under if I did. Just didn't seem like the right number. I know that Minnesota got into a shootout last last weekend and the week before that, but to me, I didn't. I made it fifty three and a half and just just seems like an underplay to me, to be honest.
Packer's visiting the forty nine ers. It's now at three and the over under is fifty. It wasn't four at one point, and I took it at four. I'm wondering what you think of it right now at three.
No real opinion on the spread, just the two really good teams, and I can't really get a pulse on Green Bay. It's just two polar opposite results. I want to say that the team's back and that week one was just an outlier, but I really don't know. Because I love San Francisco and was extremely high on San Francisco coming into the year, so laying off the spread, but I do like I think that there's gonna be points in the game. I think the over is a good play, all right.
I don't know if we touched on the over under on the Cowboys Eagles, but it's fifty two. Do you have an opinion that.
I would have taken anything at fifty two or better again the Cowboys. To me, baseline, you have to start at fifty two and playing the Eagles, you know, we saw fifty one and a half. I thought it should have been fifty two and a half or fifty three. Again, it didn't force a punt. Last week to me, has two consecutives really really bad games for the defense, and
I don't think dan Quinn has figured it out. I think playing against a dual threat quarterback with maybe one of the fastest receiving corps in the entire league is going to be a tough game plan for that defense, and I think there's just gonna be big plays everywhere. So I think over fifty two is a really good play.
Awesome, let's recap very quickly once again. You are taking the Cardinals and the Jaguars over fifty two, the Bucks laying one to the Rams and the Browns and the Bears to go over forty six. I really I am
in line with all three of those plays. Unfortunately for me, I'm taking the Eagles getting three and a half from the Cowboys, the Jets and the Broncos under forty one and a half, and the Titans laying five to the You know, last last week, Alex, like, I felt like there were a lot of very clear bounce back spots like the Vikings.
The Vikings to me when you were rattling off your wins, I'm like, this guy, this guy wasn't gonna get bit by the overreaction bug.
He's not good. I felt like there was a lot of that. After week one, I completely understood it. I felt like Week two is like your Week two is my favorite week to bet, Like it really is, because I feel like it's just constant, constant overreaction, Like the Vikings. It was disgusting. I felt gross doing it, but I was like, this is obviously a game that I have to run and take. I don't feel that great right now about this one, but it's still It's it's enough
there where I'm gonna enjoy it. This is great talk to you. We haven't talked obviously last year was all weird with the way you know football. Was glad to have you back on can't wait to do it again. Remind everybody where they could find you and your work.
Yeah, thanks so much, Dan. I'm on Twitter at aj K O L O, d Z I E J.
And now and now that right now, the pronunciation you did.
You know what, I will admit to the uh to the listeners, you absolutely nailed the last name in the pre show that I was like, unbelieve this guy's been practicing.
I try, I do. I will be honest that I try to practice pronouncing your name once a day for the last four hundred and thirty four days. So I'm glad that it right and it worked. It worked well, So that's great. All right, everybody. I hope you guys have a great weekend of gambling. We'll be back as we always are here on Monday, taking an early look at the lines for week four. I'll talk to you them
