Hey there, everyone, and welcome back to another episode of the Betting pros NFL Podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris and you can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Ady. Week one is in the books, and as always, it was a tough week to handicap, but now we have some actionable information to
guide our decision making going forward. As always, as soon as week one ends, we need to start immediately looking to week two, So as we always do on our Monday show, we're going to be taking an early look at next week's lines. We're not making picks here, We're just giving our initial reaction to the lines as they first come out. And with me to break it all down is Christian Pena, a professional sports better and a
writer and managing editor for the Sports Betting Podcast. You can find them on Twitter at the very convenient at Christian Pina. That's p I n A, Christian. How's it going, man, good man.
It's always fun talking with new people and companies that are coming up into the space, and I've been say such a fan of what you guys have done on other ends and other areas, so I really appreciate you thinking of me and I'm excited for you know, week two, Week one, you know the biggest differences to me in
the NFL season. It's so funny we think of ourselves as you know, these three month handicappers because Week one kind of comes, you know, the lines open three months in advance, and then everything we have to shift to basically five day handicappers. So Week two, to me, both in college football and the National Football League is one of the most unique, in my opinion, really challenging weeks of the year.
Yeah, out of curiosity. If we had talked last week for Week one and again you talked about it, and we talked about this last week, which is you know, the Week one lines come out months in advance, and we talked a little bit about how they moved from when they first dropped. Did any of them coming into basically on Monday as of last week, did any of them really jump out to is off when you first
looked at him. I'm not saying necessarily to place a bet, but just where if you were you know, you're a professional sports better basically if you were placing a bet when you looked at you said wow, I expected that line. Either an over under or spread on any particular game to be significantly high or lower. Was it about where you thought it would be?
You mean it for week one when they opened for Week one?
Yeah, not this week. We'll talk all about this week, But I meant last week. If I had you on on our Monday show from last week, we were talking about some lines and one or two of them stuck out to us as a little bit off, just that we would expect it to be a little bit different. I was just wondering out of curiosity from last week, whether you had been on on Monday and we were analyzing the week one lines, whether or not any of them would have stuck out to you as a little bit off.
Yeah, let's talk about that Green Bay Packers line and the fact that they were an underdog. I understand that they were on the rope, but when you look at this, I mean, it's crazy how much the market and perception of a team can shift on you know, a very short sample size. And make no mistake, the National Football League is a very short sample size. You're talking about sixteen games where you know there's it's notorious that you know,
sometimes professionals are a year early on teams. We saw this, you know, they were backing the Browns and got you know, absolutely killed for a while. You know, but they were just a year early. The same thing happened a couple of years ago. They were a year early on Jacksonville. So the short sample size in the marketplace. Look, I mean, I don't understand how the Chicago team was favored at all. And you know, inherently that's going to present some value.
And you get Aaron Rodgers, who has amazing success in the division against that you know, particular number not to mention the script was one hundred and eighty degrees flipped from last year when Chicago was coming in with a new offense, and you know, green Bay to me, really
I don't understand that. You know how they were in an underdog when green Bay built their team to you know, contain Mitch Trubisky's legs and you know, beat the Bears, and for lack of a better term, they got so much faster with their draft pick and you know, Savage, the safety is probably already you know, running a four to two, one of the fastest guys in the back
end in the league. And they learned how to you know, kind of bring people in too, you know, set that edge and make Triubisky beat them from the pocket, and it really did play out that way. I thought their offense would be a lot better. But you know, at the end of the day, that's uh, you know, in terms of line value, that was the biggest one that
really stuck out to me. And when you go down the line, look, division underdog, divisional underdogs in a week one constantly have a great records, so you know, to me, that's kind of where everything starts and ends, and when those lines are very much flipped. Again, we saw this with Tennessee, we saw this just about everywhere. Washington just
squeaking in inside the numbers. So the Green Bay one was the biggest kind of head scratcher to me, and just making some of these you know, divisional underdogs that do so well in week ones, you know, some of these being very long favorites, like the Vikings in Washington game.
Yeah, we're going to talk about the differences from this week, especially because I mean, look, I was preparing for the show and earlier today, just a few hours ago, I had sort of the list of what the consensus numbers were, and they've already moved some of them pretty significantly. So we're going to talk about each game here, and both the spreads and over unders that we're going to be talking about, we're going to be using the bettingpros dot
Com consensus numbers. Now, that is an aggregation of the odds that are available in the market, and as I mentioned last week, well these numbers are probably what you're going to find. Generally speaking, there are occasionally pretty significant differences in the odds available in the market, for example with the Bears and the Broncos right now, and some of this is due to the fact that we're recording this on Monday night. The Broncos haven't played yet, so
this could move. But you've got Fandle with the Bears at minus two and a half. Almost every other book has them at plus one. So if you look to maximize your return on investment, make sure to shop around a bit for the best odds that you can get. But for now, just know that when I list any given odds, they're bettingpros dot Com consensus ods. All right, Christian, let's begin with the Thursday night game. That's the Bucks at the Panthers. We've got the Panthers laying six and
a half points and the over under at fifty. What's your reaction to those lines.
Look, when you look at this Tampa team, they are you know, they Winston. I really, you know, thought he'd make, you know, finally take that step forward and you know he doesn't have Fitzpatrick, you know, looking over his shoulder, and he's not going to be worrying about coming in and we saw that. It's just he just played like there's nobody else behind him, which is usually you know, a good thing for confidence, and I guess it went the other way with him, So I get this reaction.
I mean when you look at the look aheadlines, this was about a minus three for Carolina at home. Look Carolina, you know, cross country, they were going to la different time zone, all that type of stuff came into play on week one and they really did hang around with them depending on the number that you got last time.
But you look at a guy like McCaffrey and I just I think that his trajectory reminds me so much of Levey on Bell and you know, had Leveon Bell want an MVP, I think that you could, you know, really make a case for you know that blueprint to be followed, it just becomes such a quarterback kind of
driven league. But to me, this line in total are set just about where I would make them, again, assuming I give Carolina a little bit of a downgrade for a home field advantage, you know, maybe it's two instead of the normal kind of flat three across the board that most people will use, you know, just again based on time all that type of stuff. But I will say there is a very good trend out there on
you know, home teams playing on Thursday night. And I don't know if you can classify Bruce Arians as a quote unquote rookie head coach, but he is in his first year with a new team, and traditionally that is a great spot to fade. So I do think this, you know, maybe there's you know, a half point of value, a point of value, but I really just see this one as Carolina kind of you know, continuing to undress Tampa. And I think that this line is probably right on the money.
And how and the total too at fifty. I mean they last year, one of their games they totaled at seventy, you know, so it struck me when I first looked at it as maybe a little high, but you know, on second thought, I guess it kind of seems right at the number. You know, the Bucks offense didn't look fantastic on Sunday, and the Panthers, you know, Cam Newton was a little rusty going in. They still have a
strong defense. The fifty number initially struck me as a little too high, but after second thought and kind of looking at their history and looking at everything, it probably struck me right about online. Are you on board there with the fifty over under? Yeah?
You look at the last time that these two played on December second, twenty eighteen, twenty four to seventeen victory, so that one, you know, did go under that I would definitely lean with the under with you there as well. Look in the beginning of seasons, there's a reason that professionals will always go under in the Hall of Fame game, and that's because traditionally, to start things off, defenses are
always ahead of offense. There's it's just schematically, I don't want to say easier, but it's just a little bit you know, different to apply. So I will always lean towards an under, especially early in the seasons.
All right, let's move on to the next game. We've got the Chargers at the Lions. The Chargers are laying two and a half points. Now, this was at three earlier in the day, it's moved to two and a half and the over under is set on forty seven, both these teams coming off overtime games. What are your thoughts here on Chargers laying two and a half and the over under at forty seven.
Yeah, a couple things here really struck me out. Number one, this is probably going to be the most publicly sided game of the week, and I would say that majority of people are going to come out in droves for the Chargers laying that short number on the road. And again we just said both teams playing, you know, after overtime, so you know, the Lions did go the full you know, extra quarter in the season in the beginning of the season.
That's usually a detriment.
You could look at a couple of different ways, but to me, that's what struck me the most about this one is this is going to be probably the biggest, one of the biggest book needs of the afternoon. When we talk about the Chargers side, again, you saw that number tick up minus two and a half three some places, again using our consensus minus two and a half.
And the other thing.
Public's like two things, favorites and overs because they'd like to see scores, and the same thing happened. I saw that total, and my initial reaction was that seems, you know, very very low when you look at the game last year that ended thirty three to twenty eight with these two teams.
Yeah, no, that was my reaction too. I mean, I think that spread was fine. You know, I also completely agree that I would expect the public to certainly be backing the Chargers in droves, and they probably have been at least somewhat already with the line move. And yeah, I agree the over under. It just it struck me as a little light. I mean, both teams. You know that the Lions showed, you know, the Cardinals their defense certainly is nothing to write home about. But the Lions
on offense, you know, they have more weapons. TJ. Hockinson obviously adds a new dimension to that. Danny Amandola right in the middle, to add to Marvin Jones and Kenny Galladay. So I do think that their offense can score points. And Indianapolis showed yesterday that the Charters defense certainly is far from infallible. Although they're strong, they're dealing with another
injury at cornerback. So you know, with the two with the Chargers defense kind of backed up both teams having offenses at the Lions that are a little bit surprisingly good at least if you look at yesterday. I also agree that I thought the over under struck me as a little light. But it should be a close game and I would expect more money to come in on the Chargers. As you said, let's move to the next game, Colts. At time Titans, Titans laying three points and the over under said at forty four.
What do you think this is a little bit of an overreaction to me? Was my first statement. Look, this is kind of you always want to buy low and sell high, and I understand the Titans just went in there and kind of derailed the Browns hype training again, a divisional underdog situation, a bunch of new pieces specifically on offense, and you know, the Titans. For everyone out there that you know hasn't kind of listened to me before, this is one team that I don't know that I've
ever backed in my life. I just think that they're stuck in a different age. You know, this was again Mike Malarkey, the thunder and Lightning. They wanted to run the ball, and that's just not how the league is played, not you know, how the league is won. And so the Titans are a team until they show me that they are shifting, you know, kind of their philosophical mindset. Offensively, I don't know that I can get behind a ticket
on them very much. But again a great you know, divisional road spot for them in some nice plus money last week. You look at the other side of the Colts. This is another you know, reaction to the Andrew Luck drama. You know, Brissette, you know, played okay, but this to me is the ultimate kind of buy low, sell high. So definitely kind of lean with the Colts on that one and these divisional games, you know, despite the high powered nature and theory of kind of what the Colts
offense was supposed to be. You know, let's be very clear, this is a downgrade from Brissett, you know, our to Luck from or from Luck to Berset. And you know, traditionally coltson and these two teams have played each other very very tight. They usually kind of split there, and when you look at this, you know total again last year was a little bit of a different situation, but Indianapolis thirty three seventeen, and that was at a time
when Tennessee had kind of gone off the rails. But to me, I mean Marlon Mack what he is able to do that, you know, really to kind of take the pressure off Brissett at only one hundred and ninety yards. You know, Mariota, somebody I will always dare you to beat me and there you know, if you do, I'll tip my cap. And that's how we feel about this. So definitelyan with the road underdog cults here at the plus three and in the total, definitely lean U slightly towards the ender.
Yeah, I would think the numbers struck me as roughly correct. And I don't know about you. I have a really tough time with division games, especially early in the season. I just kind of think, you know, these teams know each other generally speaking. You mentioned it's a little bit different now of course because there's no Andrew Luck coming in for the Colts, but it's the same system that they ran last year. It's, you know, two teams with
relatively good defenses. The over under forty four is pretty low for the week, but you know, it strikes me as something that's probably going to be right out of curiosity, and this is a little off topic, but I'm wondering, do you have any fear of betting on divisional games like this with teams that know each other so well, especially earlier in the season, or do you just take it like it's any other game.
Well, let's think about this, right, so divisional underdogs again, I haven't. I didn't go back and do this for I didn't add in what happened for last week, but they were seventeen and four last few years against the spread, and so I will always lean with the trends. I'm a big trend better. But you know, traditionally what happens with people, they see a trend once out there, inevitably on their first time betting it, it loses, and then they never touch it again, and all of a sudden
they forget it exists. So it's, you know, again, seventy seven percent, you know, and I think that must have probably went up when you had you think about Washington covering last week, the Titans obviously winning out right and covering, So there's probably a couple more in there, at least, you know, nineteen and four, so above you know, pretty
much eighty percent in week one. When you look at week two, you know, I will always, like I said, side with the underdogs in division just based on that. And when you look at this, you know, Redskins, Bills, Giants, Raiders, it's a good opportunity here, and so I will always kind of lean with those, because, look, we don't know what these these teams are yet. In week two, we're going off you know, preconceived notions of the offseason and
pretty much last year's data. It takes three to four weeks to know what a team is this year versus what a team was and what they could be like like the Browns.
You know, yep, no, absolutely, yeah. For me, I just never feel like I have a good, good sense of it early on this season, So I don't look laying three essentially saying that it's roughly an even matchup on a neutral field and a small over under. That strikes me as about right. Let's move to our next game, also divisional game, the Cowboys at the Redskins. Cowboys are laying four and a half points and the over under
is now forty six. Now when I checked earlier in the day, it was forty four, so it's moved roughly two points over. I don't know about you, I kind of expected the line to be higher here. I expected the Cowboys to be laying more points. What about you?
Yeah, much like that Chargers line.
I think this is kind of the fishy line of the week that the public will you know, probably be a consensus pick just about everywhere for the Cowboys just over that field goal. But again, it's a divisional matchup, and as Tennessee showed, these can be you know, very very tricky, especially in the early part of the season. Look, I don't necessarily give Washington a full three for that. And these again, these teams know each other so well.
But the way that you know, Dak playing motivated and if he you know, I would dare say maybe this line even moves if he you know, does get paid, And it could go the other way, just because you look at the motivation factor for a guy, you know, to go out there and just you know, make people be quiet. And look, I am or I was the
the biggest Dak detractor on the planet. Before he got a Mari Cooper, I was betting you know, his his passing yards props under every single week and returning at pretty nice you know, ROI in that department, I just did not think you could win with a guy like Dak Prescott.
And you know, I've said that before. I've been wrong before.
I'll be rung again when it comes to guys like Trubisky and Golf, although the jury is kind of out on those guys still, and as it is, you know, in my opinion, maybe even on Dak despite the big number, he's a to get paid, so it's very low when you look at you know, a pure power numbers handicapper is probably going to make this you know, Dallas minus
a you know, seven Road favorite. To me, this Washington team is kind of you know, held together with you know, silly putty and some duct tape and maybe some spit. And I really do feel that way, and I think that the rails can kind of come off here. Of course, you had the incredible running Davis touchdown here, and maybe that's kind of fresh in everyone's mind, but next level thinking is very real, and when something seems too good to be true in this business that is a very
real situation and not trap lines nothing like that. I just think that there's something to be you know, when you look at a line and it's so oft from what you have, it probably means oddsmakers are taking into account something that you're not. And as far as the over under, I will always go under in these Cowboys Redskins divisional games, especially in the first half market and that's just kind of a long, you know, trend play.
The Giants and Cowboys went under I believe like five maybe six straight prior to this this one as well, so I'll definitely go with the under there.
Yeah, this one, really, as I said, stuck out to me. And again, you know, the only thing is I kind of had that same feeling last week with the Ravens and the Dolphins, where I said, this line really needs to be moving much higher and it stuck under seven at least where I was looking, and that was shocking and I went with it. But it was one of those where I said, I know I must be missing something because you know, a line like this is begging
you to take the Ravens. And that's kind of how I feel about this one, which is why I'm surprised it's a low. Again, You're right, there's probably something. I mean, this is a line that's sort of begging you to take the Cowboys, which is why I expected it to
be higher. But for me, look, I don't want to draw too many conclusions from yesterday against the Giants, but I think with Kellen Moore calling the plays, with you know, Zeke back, with a full season from Mamari, with Gallup taking that next step, I think that this Cowboys offense
is going to be really, really difficult to stop. The Redskins, Honestly, impressive is the word that I want to use for them, as unfair as that is, because they're really not a very good team, but the fact that they came out hot against the Eagles, they hung in their all game. They're now going to be without Darius Guice though for at least a couple of weeks. So for me, I'm going to be surprised. As much as it's kind of
seems like a trapline, I'm gonna be surprised. There's got to be tons of public money coming in, which also, again you know that they know that setting the line at this number, that there's gonna be a ton of money coming in on the Cowboys, which makes you feel like they probably want a lot of money coming in on the Cowboys. But to me, the four and a half points just really stuck out to me as the one that when I was going through the lines, I was like, Wow, this is something where I really sort
of had the projection being much much different. As for the overunder, I'm inclined to agree. You know, I think a forty six where it's at now forty four struck me as a little light. But at a forty six,
I think that's roughly right. Even though I like the Cowboys offense, I do think that in a divisional game like this where the teams know as a general matter, again, yesterday Cowboys seem to have no trouble with the Giants, But in divisional game generally, I think going with the under and having a lower over under than you might expect probably makes sense. Let's move to our next game,
the Seahawks at the Steelers. Now, this one is interesting because it was at five, the Steelers laying five, it's now the Steelers laying three and a half, and the over under was it forty seven and now it's at forty six and a half. Do you think that this is a reaction just to how abysmal the Steelers look last night? Or do you think that this was just going to move once we got a little more data regardless.
Yeah, I want to say one more thing about that Cowboys Washington game and that.
Oh yeah, sorry, I don't need to cut you off.
No, no, go ahead, you're fine that though.
You know, one more thing that did stuck, you know, stick out to me when you look at this, you know, why is this line where it is? Look, the Redskins lost to you know, the clear front runner I think in most people's minds along with Dallas by you know, guess what margin five points. I don't want to say they did that kind of blindly, but the situation and you know, I know, Washington at home in this one and all that type of stuff, but that does make sense.
And look, that's a little bit of prime while you know what's called basic teaser wong teaser territory at that plus four and a half gets you through many different key numbers up towards you know, above that ten and a half mark.
So on Seattle. Same thing.
The first thing that stuck out to me is I wish that five was available, because I believe Russell Wilson has not. I lost maybe one game in his career by more than double digits. And anytime I can, you know, tease a number up to get that, that is always what I'm going to do. And every single time. And now that that's gone, look Toy still like it at
the nine and a half? Sure, I just would have absolutely loved that eleven teaser leg It was the first thing that stuck out to me about that total or I'm sorry about that side and the total.
Why do you think it moved so much out of curiosity? I mean that's a that's a fairly significant move a point and a half, and you know they just played last night the Steelers. They looked terrible. The Seahawks didn't look that great either. I mean they were favored by nine and a half over the Bengals and they barely squeaked by. So out of care, I mean, what do you think is driving that point and a half move?
Yeah?
Absolutely, Look, this was a National League televised game week one where every that's you know, probably one of the biggest numbers are going to do for viewers both in LAS Vegas sportsbooks or wherever people are watching this game for this reason. And so when you you know, primetime games, the market over correct or you know over ad just more than anything else in the world. When you get beat that badly, it's just so fresh in everyone's mind
that inherently there's an overreaction. So yeah, if you are kind of the you know, value based power numbers type of handicapper, you know, maybe there is some inherent value with the Steelers to me. Look this Steelers team, I think I think there's a narrative. I think that Mike Tomlin could be out of a job very quickly, you know, quicker than people think. I think he makes a lot of sense if you want to go into the novelty prop market of first coach to be dismissed, if you
know anywhere still has that up. And look, the Seahawks Russell Wilson has been very good to me in his career, both in his season win total in specific situations just like this one. So while I do think that this is something of a bilosl high not again, like you said, not that Seattle did anything to kind of you know, sell them high on but they did get out of town with a victory. And that's, you know, from a
straight up perspective, all that matters. And so Seattle or Steelers, I think the ship could be on fire much quicker.
You saw Juju limp off as well. I don't know that.
He's supposed to be okay, by the way, just to there was a report today that he's supposed to be fine. He is going to play in this game. So that's at least one thing that we don't have to worry about.
Pouncy as well, was another injury. Then we have seen this time and time again. When you know Pouncy Brothers and what they really do for the makeup, much like Frederick for the Cowboys, it's a different unit when he is in there versus when he's not. So I understand the line move, I you know, and I don't say I agree with it, but I completely understand the reasons
for it. Is just that's what the market does because everyone is going to see what happened last week and when they come out and they're going to try to hit that you know road underdog at the plus you know five all the way down to plus three and a half. So I get it, don't necessarily agree with it, but I completely understand why odds makers did that. And as far as the total, look, I was really shocked at this Steelers offense. This Patriots defense has had holes
in the past. I know they're a revamped unit and that offense, you know, is scary without Antonio Brown. But to me, you know, the forty seven, what did Antonio Brown mean to this team? We will find out now. I thought Juju was going to take that next step. It was about, you know, just a bad game. I completely understand that. But this all depends on if the Pittsburgh team can get going. And you saw, you know, with Metcalf, this is you know, Russell Wilson's has some
weapons to play with. Now Tyler Lockett all he does is catch touchdown, So definitely lean towards the overs bill teams look to get their offenses in flowing.
Yeah, the number, both numbers struck me as as roughly correct. The five that the open was I found to be crazy to me. I mean, even before watching the Steelers, I just didn't think. I think people, as you sort of said, for whatever reason, sportsbooks always seem to underestimate Russell Wilson and the Seahawks, So I thought that that was way too high. As it moves closer to three, I think that that's about correct. I think you put these guys in the neutral field. I think it's roughly
a pick them game. And the over under to me forty six and a half forty seven. I think it was fine. You know, I imagine that I guess I don't know, but I would imagine that most money would come in sort of on the under. You suggested that you like the over there to me the forty six and a half forty seven right around there. I'm sure that's where it's going to end up. But to me, both these numbers at this point kind of struck me as roughly correct. Let's move to your favorite team that
you were talking about, the Vikings at the Packers. Now the Packers are the oddsmakers have adjusted, the Packers are favored just by three, and the over under is at forty four and a half. That has dropped a bit since earlier today it was at forty six, So the numbers dropped by about a point and a half. Again, Packers at three forty four and a half over under. The Vikings at the Packers, what's your reaction to that.
My reaction was, the Vikings are probably going to be one of the biggest public underdogs of the week because everyone just saw how they dismantled an Atlanta team out there, and so look, the Packers looked great. They did well to say they've looked great, I think that defensively they
looked amazing. That being said, as I said in the beginning, I think that they built their team to stop the Bears and the Minnesota is here is a cheat sheet on how I will bet against Minnesota or bet on Minnesota if they are playing a team that finished the year above five hundred the previous year. I Am going to bet against them and do it every single time. And conversely, nobody beats bad teams like Kirk Cousins. Now, this one gets a little bit tricky because I don't
think this is the same Green Bay Packers team. I really don't. But yet they finished the year, you know, under five hundred last year. And that stat of Kirk Cousins is absolutely incredible.
I'm trying.
I'm gonna pull it up right now. He is basically about sixteen percent against the spread throughout his career against a team that finished whether he over five hundred record the year prior. So this one's a little bit of an anomaly. I think that the crowds are going to come and you know, look too back what they just saw again Week two is over reaction week and so
it's a you gotta be very much aware of it. Again, a divisional, you know, opponent, I usually do like to lean towards the underdog, and as I said this, but this number at the plus three that we are looking at is something it's basically, you know, I don't want say it's to pick them because it is a key number and it can kind of come off of that, but it's it's absolutely crazy. And look, cousins, you know record verse winning teams is five and twenty five, and
that is absolutely incredible. So in twenty eighteen, last year went one and six, road record thirteen and twenty three. These are just too many things to me to look to look at that divisional trend. So I would take three points here and avoid that you know, gross stinky public underdog on the road, and look, totals, you're always going to get me to take a lean towards that
under on a divisional game. I do think that total is probably pretty much right on the money and just where about where I made it.
So if you were gonna make the spread for this game, would you have it? What Packer laying five or what?
Yeah, I would put it right in what's called the dead zone. If I was an odds maker, I would this. You know, this game is really, like I just said, I don't exactly know what to do with it from a point spread perspective, because I just don't know about this Packers team yet, and that offense look bad, and look that Vikings offense looks great. Yet Cousins will you know, it's almost as if they've figured it out. They only let Cousins throw the ball I believe ten times last
week and just had Dalvin Cook go wild. The Packers you're not going to be able to do that. All they are going to do is set that edge, contain Dalvin Cook and make Cousins, you know, beat them. And when you have a four to two safety and what I believe is the second fastest in the defense in the NFL, I put this in the dead zone and I, you know, really make you pay a premium if you want to back the Packers and find out and I think that would probably make a lot of people pass
because traditionally fours and fives quote unquote dead numbers. But that's really what I would make that number right around that four four and a half to five point mark.
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of terms and conditions. And if you've got a gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. All right, Christian, let's move on to our next game. It's the Bills at the Giants. The Bills are laying one and a half and the over under a set at forty three and a half. What's your reaction here?
I was really looking forward to what this line would be. And that is for you know, one reason, there is a you know what if I told you that this situation presents at something rather unique in the marketplace where one of these teams is you know, six point sixty seven percent against the spread in the spot that they're in, you know what that trend is when it comes to this scheduling statistic for the in this case the Buffalo Bills.
I do not what is it.
Teams on back to back road games to start the season are one in fourteen against the numbers since twenty fifteen.
And look, these.
Usually aren't big numbers, so sometimes you can sneak in there, but usually these spots are really all about.
You know, winning or losing.
I think the Bills just came back in fashion and the public is going to see that as well. And this is a gross home underdog Bills non conference road game. These are all situations of look ahead spots after divisional game A hard fought one and by the way, the Colts are also in that discussion as well at the plus three against the Titans. But to me, this is the gross underdog nobody wants to take. And somehow we don't understand how the Bills beat the Jets and they
just looked ahead to the next week. But this is a pretty good scheduling spot at least for the Giants, just to win the game at home against a Buffalo team that is still going through the motions here and again, when you talk about this total, you look at the Bills putting up just seventeen points last week, you look at the Giants putting up seventeen. That forty two number is very very low, begging people to take that over
and maybe somebody gets it going. There is just not a lot of weapons on the field for these two teams, so I would have to go under there as long as you're over that key number.
And what do you think about the one and a half? Then, I mean, what would you have said it at if you could make the line the Bills are right now laying one and a half, would you have then made it more of a pickum or.
What if they Because I know the data behind that trend, and I think that it's you know, it depends what you put stock into. To me, I weigh that heavily when I go through my process and everything like that.
So I may have a completely different number, but I would probably knowing what I know about you know how successful Again, that's what ninety four percent, you know, And in week two for those you know four teams that I just talked about, in this situation, I'm going to make you know, if you're a quote unquote sharp out there, I'm going to make you pay at tax for it, and I'm going to beg people to take the take the
bills in that situation. So I would maybe I would go, you know, maybe even giants minus three make people scratch their head.
I'd go four and a half.
One's different just because I I'm sorry the uh yeah, giants. I would go giants minus three and make people, you know, dare people to take the bills in this dead that scheduling spot form.
Wow interesting that there is one thing to note in that although it is back to back road games, it's in the same spot. They just faced the Jets and now they're facing the Giants. So it's the same stadium. I don't know if they stayed I would although I mean, I guess Buffalo's not too far, but I mean I wonder whether or not that's going to have any impact. But it's a great stat that you gave as for where I would see it going. I think it's probably
going to stick right around here. I think, you know, they basically it's going to be about a point. If the Giants wound up being favored, I'm you know, certainly there would be a different way of betting. But for now, I think the Bills laying one and a half the over under at forty three and a half, I think that that's roughly where it's going to end up.
Can I ask you one question about that though?
Yeah, when it's under that too, mark, or let's say under two and a half, I think, you know, this is where I really, you know, really really differ on my opinion from a lot of professionals. I don't know that I, to be honest with you, care a ton. It wouldn't change my opinion on how I bet the game. If it was you know, Bills minus one in an hour half or if it was Giants one and a half or even up to that, you know two mark
anything below that number to just win. Do you do you really, you know, would that change your opinion if it was flipped and inherently taking those quote unquote three points of value.
If you gave me the giants lang.
Three No, no, no, instead of giants, instead of giants, it was instead of giants plus one and a half, it was giants minus one and a half, and instead of bills minus one and a half was plus one and a half.
No, No, I mean I think your point, you know, for me personally, No, I mean, I don't think that really makes a difference. I mean anything under probably under two really when you're below you know three at that point, if you're just talking about whatever the bet is, I don't really think it makes that much of a difference. But certainly if you moved it from one and a half to the giants one and a half. No, I mean, if you like the bills, you like the bills at
that point. If you like the giants, you like the giants. So for me, I agree with you there. If that's what the point was, certainly not it wouldn't make a difference in how I would approach the game. But I mean, I think the public probably does, right, I mean the public probably When you move lines like that, I imagine that their perception of the game changes dramatically, wouldn't you think?
Yeah? And look, gambling psychologueal psychology is something I've been fascinated for so long. And as soon as you put a minus next to a team and a plus next to a team, people instantly feel a certain way and oh, how how can the Bills be favored? Or how can Team X be favored? And in reality you're talking about maybe three cents between a you know, minus one ten no pickum game and minus one and a half minus one thirteen or plus one and a half minus one
oh six. So I just think people kind of almost psyche themselves out too much just because of what you know, plus or minus sign is next to that number, when in reality those type of things don't genuinely come into play, you know, too too often.
Yep, I think that's a good point. Next game, Jaguars at the Texans. Texans are playing right now, so things can change here. But the odds are the Texans are laying nine and a half points and the over under
is fifty two and a half out of curiosity. Absent a major offensive line injury or an injury to Watson tonight while they're playing, would you expect anything really moving this line significantly or do you think roughly nine and a half and under fifty over under fifty two and a half is where we end up.
It's going to be where we end up. This is obviously changed so much when you go from fulls to Gardner Minshaw. But look, I think that this is that's going to be the story with this Jags team, and you know kind of how he progresses. Look, there's always a rookie quarterback. There's always somebody that comes out, and a narrative never plays out exactly how you thought, and these stories happen and you get to try to spot those, you know, trends in the market or inefficiencies before the
market catches up here. And look the you know, odds makers have no idea what to do with a you know, what is Minshaw worth to a spread? You know, they didn't know what to do when Tom Brady came into the league. What is he worth to a spread? Nobody knows these things until they have data to kind of show it. I mean, you could you can't even quantify it, you know, preseason. I know, I got a lot to run all that type of stuff here, but this line
probably does not move. Look, the narrative is already written for Jacksonville. Oddsmakers have shown that if the Texans get blown out or if they you know, pull the upright outset, which I do think they are a live underdog in that spot this week, you know, maybe it gets over. You know, maybe it just goes bananas, just like the Dolphins and Patriots land line. But I really don't see
much of a move. I mean, you'd have to be talking about twenty plus point victory for this line to get over that key number of ten before professionals would undoubtedly buy back on a divisional underdog.
Yeah. I mean, I think basically you've nailed it in that it's really tough to handicap this game because you just don't know what it's going to look like now with the Foles injury. So I think nine and a half over under fifty two and a half absent something dramatic tonight is probably where we're going to end up. Let's move on to the Cardinals at the Ravens. We've got the Ravens lanth thirteen points and the over under
set at forty six. That's moved a bit. I've checked earlier today it was at forty four, so it's moved up two points. What are your reaction to Ravens lank thirteen over under forty six against the Cardinals.
My reaction was that total is l ow low. I get it in a way because look, you were talking about you know, Kingsbury famously saying that was three of the worst offensive, you know, three quarters of the worst offense I've ever seen. You look at that fourth quarter and look, Kyler Murray's going to have growing pains. But look at the end of the day twenty nine for
fifty fourth three h eight and two. You know, I was The Ravens are such a fascinating case study to me in so many different ways because what they did is reinvent their whole philosophy. How long have there evens been run first, defense first, and you know all this stuff. Now all of a sudden they're playing the madd and O seven running gun with you know, Michael vic two point zero over there, and nobody knows what to come. That's why I love, you know, in some ways it's
very difficult. But from a you know, fan perspective, from a handicapper perspective, some games you have to sit back and watch and build your opinion on. In some games you could spot in an efficiency. I believe that the Packers in you know, last week wasn't inefficiency not knowing you know, what that offense would look like. This is look, without a doubt, the side total or the side side
of this is this is a complete overreaction. If you're a value guy, you are going to take you know, any any professional tell you always, you know, take ten points or more just about any time in the NFL. And this is, you know, value wise, this is a over reaction we do. And look, I think there's a real situation that Miami was just that bad and this Ravens team is you can't look that good every week.
I don't think the Ravens are the Kansas City Chiefs of a year ago, although the league is changing, but that over I'm I would definitely that was my first one is that seems very low for what Kyler Murray was able to show. And look, the difference was Kyler Murray was able to run his you know, his style, he ran up tempo, no huddles. Well, that's what he did at Oklahoma shotgun. And so if things do pan out for the Ravens, this one could be fireworks of plenty.
And do you think the thirteen number is right or do you think that that should be significantly lower? Sounds like you feel like the either the sports books or the market generally has been overreacting a bit.
Yeah, and again week two overreaction week I would probably make this one if even I want to kind of I mean, the look aheadline I believe was like it's vastly different. Let's just say that I think it's maybe even five or six points difference. And so if you are a value based guy, that's you know what you're going to take.
Make me pick.
I would definitely look towards that underdog, just because you know, bet team or bet numbers not teams right, and kind of ignore what you saw in Bilosa High all that type of stuff. I probably make this one based on what I seen, which again is still probably a little bit of an overreaction, maybe eight and a half nine. And again, I'm not a value based handicapper. I don't
take points just to take points. In this league where the spread is mattering less and less every single week, So maybe you know, throw them a little teaser, maybe get down to that look ahead number something like that. But I would make this one much closer to what I see for the Jaguars and the Texans, or even a little bit less.
Yeah, it struck me as high. It really did. I don't necessarily think it's going to move anywhere, because I think people are, you know, as much as people might like you know, Murray and be excited by him, I think what the Ravens data is just going to be fresh in the public's mind. So it struck me as high. I would have thought it was probably closer to you know, the ten mark one way or another. So thirteen struck me as high. But I don't expect it to move
all that much going forward. Forty nine ers at the Bengals. Forty nine ers are now plus half a point. They were at minus one when I checked earlier today. I don't know if that is the Tevin Coleman injury or what the over under is now at forty five. Joe Mixon also may miss the game, but he has a chance to sit up so right now because Census odds are forty nine ers plus half a point in the over under at forty five.
What do you think, same situation. I can't really waiver from the from us. You know, something that's been so successful for me, forty nine ers back to back road games, and you know, the numbers tell me I have to take the other side no matter what the number was. Do I wish the Bengals were catching you know, a
three spot here three and a half? Absolutely, but look, Cincinnati looked very good in a spot where many people picked them to kind of you know, challenge the Dolphins to have the worst record, especially without aj Green, and you know, and the first quarter they're winning, you know, they're up at half. They just dropped it in the fourth quarter and that could certainly happen. You know, this Seahawks team, you know, when you look at to compare to the Bengals and kind of, you know, give them
that measuring stick task. I think Seattle's you know, I thought was a lot better than them, and maybe that was you know, that was a tough spot for Cincinnati again, a non conference road game to open up the year. All those type of things that are coming into play here. So look, I got to take the number regardless of what it is in terms of the value. And when you talk about you know, Cincinnati did a pretty good job limiting that offense, and you can't really say that
a lot about the Cincinnati defense usually. But to me, that forty five a little bit short. I just think that there's a narrative here that Garoppolo I don't know that he can be this bad. I really do believe that. And look, all the guy does is win when he's healthy and he's in there. But to me, he just don't rust all that type of stuff. Compounded with I think he was just getting back into the flow. And again all he does is also lose weapons around him. Right,
So look at Dalton. I mean foury eighteen and two without an AJ Green and the San Francisco team had two interceptions all of last year, already surpassed that turnover differential comes around, but not to the point of, you know, tripling it in the first two weeks. So while Dalton's been known to throw an interception or two, I think this one does go over the total, and I think
Garoppolo is going to be the key to that. But I do think he gets it going at least a little bit to get over that number.
All right, let's move on to one of the more fascinating lines of the week, The Patriots at the Dolphins. The Patriots are at at this point, they're at minus seventeen and a half. It has been moving all day towards the Patriots. The over under a set at forty seven. I mean, you've been doing this for a long time. When's the last time you've seen they've spread this high for a road favorite? Because I can't remember it.
Ooh, put me on the spot.
That is a no, no, I'm not asking, it's all right, no no, But I mean, what do you think of this seventeen and a half? The Dolphins looked at bismol. The Pats looked as good as they ever have their getting brown back. I mean, what do you think of this line?
I would say, first, well, I think it was probably the undefeated year. Whenever they played the Jets for the second time late in the year. Would probably my guess is to when that that second time was maybe Buffalo. But this look, again, it depends on your philosophy. Are you a you know, are you going to take the points value every single time?
Or are you not?
And look, I mean, god, bless oz makers. They've they've finally, you know, put the Patriots tax too high for even me and I there's really wasn't a Patriots tax that I was afraid to play throughout the basically over the past three to four years. The first bet I make every single year when when any line's open, as the Patriots to win the AFC East, because I feel like they should be priced like Lebron and the Cavaliers were
all those years. It's absolutely crazy to me that there are plus money every single year and then everyone, you know, things crash and oh my god, look this is the p the NFL is the Patriots league here and anything else is you know, at least to put yourself in a position to hedge guarantee money week to week and certainly in the futures market, can I get behind laying
seventeen and a half on the road. Look, this is a weird spot because usually the Dolphins come into Foxborough in the first game and Patriots play in Miami every December. Basically since the last ten plus years that I can remember, that's always, always always been the case. That's why the Patriots always struggle Ats or even outright against Miami in that December spot, So you're getting that here. Look the Dolphins the second time around. It's no matter what the
number is, always a blind bet. I can't remember lying getting this out of control in a very long time. Look, maybe you treat this like Alabama and you play a little Patriots first quarter or something like that. I don't even know what to do with this. I have to pass because the tax is just too high.
Yeah, I mean, it's just been moving all day long, so I can't imagine it gets much higher than seventeen and a half. But it opened at fourteen essentially, and it was like, you know, it's moved two points essentially over the last I think it's.
Like ten and a half in some spots.
Honestly, it's just crazy. I mean recently when I looked at it, originally it was at fourteen and then it just kept going. So my guess is going to hit a tipping point. This is probably about where it is you started getting in eighteen nineteen. I mean, it's just insane. So my guess is this is a round where it ends up. Let's move on to the Chiefs at the Raiders I don't have an over under right now because the Raiders haven't played yet, so books haven't at least
what I've seen come out with it. Or we don't have a consensus anyway. But the Chiefs are laying nine points. They've lost Tyreek Hill. Ma Holmes has a bit of an angle injury. I mean, what do you think. It's hard to know, of course, because we haven't seen the Raiders play yet. What do you think about the Chiefs at the Raiders laying nine points?
You nailed it.
We don't know what to see, you know, what to expect out of this Raiders team.
It could go way.
You know, the Raiders to me are always kind of I equate them in Major League Baseball to the Mets. There's just such a range of outcomes every single year, and usually.
You're talking so much about my teams. Man, I'm a mess. Here is just NonStop. It's fine, I get it, go ahead, Sorry, keep.
Going, No, It's just look, there's so many ranges of outcomes. If you know the pitching staff on the Mets, could you know they could be basically top three, one, two three in Si Young votes every single year, or they could you know, be at the bottom of the division. Just there's so many ranges of outcomes. The floor is so low. But I guess in theory even without Ab, I mean, what is the ceiling without him? That's what
we have to find out. Look this the Chiefs are in a bad situational spot here back to back road games, banged up. Is Sammy Watkins, this player that we saw last week. In my opinion, no, I have to take the points here because it's I have to do it blindly in a situational spot week two that I do every single season. So the number, I'm glad it's it's a little bit higher than basically a pick them for all the other ones. Maybe they sneak in there and back door at Allah Washington last year. But I got
to take the number. I gotta take the Raiders nine.
Yeah, I mean, I think this one might move depending on what the Raiders look like right now without Ab, and of course depending on how Mahomes looks. But there's a lot of variables here. It's a tough one to really handicap in this point. So minus nine, I don't really know. I think it's probably struck me is right around where it needs to be given the Hill injury and without knowing much from the Raiders. But we'll find out a lot more tonight, as we will with the
next game, the Bears at the Broncos. Right now, we've got the Bears getting half a point, but we talked about that FanDuel line that's messing it up a little bit. The consensus was at Broncos laying half a point and the over under is forty two and a half. Again, we need to see what the Broncos look like. I did see a stat today though, that I thought was
worth pointing out. I believe it was Warren Sharp. He noted that the Broncos are twenty two and one at home in the first two weeks of the season since two thousand. I don't know if something like that matters to you, But what do you think here. Let's make it the Bears getting half a point, which is the consensus ods and the over under forty two and a half again without really knowing what the Broncos look like because we haven't seen him play yet.
Yeah, so look that the trend certainly matters to me, But some things are just an anomaly, and you know, if you're at a roulette table, Red can come up twenty two times in a row, right, Well, is there
a reason for it in that situation? No, But let's dig deeper and say why are they That is because at that elevation, at that air, the Denver Broncos are equipped, they know how to handle it, they know how to play, and teams coming in early in the season again talking about this unconditioned, they're not in you know, full season grind mode. They're not you know, into this, you know, into the full swing. And that to me is such the reason why. And look, Oddsmakers did a great job
with this line. I really do believe that because I wanted to take the Bears, you know, hoping that the overreaction, because again I truly believe that that game last week says so much more about Green Bay and what they did to build their team to beat that division rival, more than it even says about the Bears. And again I'm not the biggest Bears believer here, but they made this line in the exact place that's going to keep me off of it. It really really did, because I
can't go against twenty two and one. If you if you think I'm going against that, you're absolutely crazy. It's a very real thing. And when you talk about that total, the under makes an absolute ton of sense, knowing you know, Chicago's offense tired, you know these traditional what does elevation do? It makes you, you know, slower, it makes you breathe heavier, and so while the Broncos, you know, maybe equipped offensively to handle the physical limitations, I just don't think there's
enough talent to overcome the Bears defense. So i'd love that at the number for the under absolutely stuck out to me, but I have to pass on the side just because of that show that you mentioned.
Yeah, I think the over under at forty two and a half, which is low, is pretty right on for all the reasons you said. I wouldn't expect it to move the line. I think it's going to bounce around a little bit, but it's gonna not be It's going to be close to essentially a pick them in the end. And you know, it's an interesting game for sure, to say the least. But we'll see how tonight goes for
the Broncos. Now, before we get into our last few games, I want to remind everyone that we're giving away and autographed Alvin Kamara helmet this month. To be entered into our contest, all you need to do is leave a review for the podcast on iTunes or Stitcher and senday's screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com. And again I pointed this out before we only started this season, so it's not like there are thousands of
entries here. You have a legitimate shot to win if you send in a screenshot of your review, and if you entered last month's contest and did not win the Christian McCaffrey Helmet, then you are automatically entered this month already, so no need to worry about that. All right, Let's move on again to another game. That's a little tough because we haven't seen the team play yet, although we know generally what they are. This is the Saints at
the Rams. The Rams are laying three. We don't have an over under yet because the Saints haven't played and there's no consensus sides. But what do you think about the Rams laying three to the Saints.
I think a lot of people look at last week and you know, maybe the Rams offense wasn't what they remember. Look, the Super Bowl hangover is very, very real in team's week one. You know, there's there's great data out there where basically any team that is not the Patriots goes under their season win total if they lose a super Bowl the next year. In Week one is a nightmare situational spot for super Bowl losers. It's just everything as fresh,
everything is, you still have that hangover. It's it's very real, and I think this is the ultimate kind of overreaction. Look to me, I need this. This is gonna sound weird because every you know, situation is different, everything like that, and I completely understand that. But narrative wise, look, the Saints have not had success in Week one, and so if they do end up you know, dropping this you know, uh home game against Houston on Monday night, could they
start the season zero and two? Very real possibility. I think this is really where the Rams are. You know, now they can put last season behind them, you know again,
depending on the number and everything like that. It was a really bad spot for them last week, and that's why the number looked a lot you know, fishier to some people who couldn't believe that the you know, that line was so short in this Rams you know offense, is this and that I get it, but I need to see what the Saints do in this spot to kind of really make my opinion, just you know, doing this one kind of blind without that, this is a very short number where the public and even odds makers
are really underestimating the Rams, looking at it as an x's and o's thing or a scheme thing, when really, in my mind, that was just the worst situational spot for the Rams to come out, and they just needed to exercise last semon season's demons and put that behind them. That three is very very short to me. Aaron Donald could rek Havoc and Drew Brees all day.
And out of curiosity. We don't have the over under yet, but what do you think the over under is going to be? Roughly two high powered offenses? Of course, what do you think? Make your prediction. I won't hold you to it, but let me know what you think it is.
Oh man, that's don't worry.
I'm not going to hold you to it. You could just come off the top of your head. You're good.
Absolutely not. You got to hold me to it. I would say fifty six and a half at least.
I like it. I like it all right. I was thinking fifty five, but I like it fifty six and a half. I bet you know you do this for a living. Of course you're probably a little more accurate. Fifty five was a number that stuck out to me, assuming no major injuries, of course, of course, to Breeze or any real skill player around the Saints. Let's move on to the Eagles. At the Falcons, the Falcons are laying one here and the over under a set at fifty one. I was a little surprised by this one.
I get that the Falcons are home. I kind of expected this to either be a pick them or maybe even the Eagles to be favored by a point. But what's your reaction to Falcons laying one and the over under at fifty one.
Let's break this down.
This was the we've I feel like we said this a couple times on lines that stick out to us and some that we make pretty much the same on I do not understand this, And look say I don't understand it. Divisional underdogs.
I get it.
Did Philly come out you know slow where they down seventeen or ten nothing, whatever it was, seventeen three, seventeen seve whatever it was to start that game. Absolutely Philadelphia. To me, I think they're one of the best. The top two teams in the NFC, or let's say this, two out of the top three in my mind are the Eagles and the Cowboys, and they're both playing the same division. And I don't even put the Falcons close, especially with that defense and all the injuries. And really,
just look, we saw this last last week. Are the Vikings this month? This is an overreaction. When you do a little bit of Oddsmaker math here, you know, Vikings being favored over the Eagles is what this is saying, which is a little bit crazy to me. The Eagles maybe the heaviest betside. I think I've said that a couple of times, but now I'm changing this for the last time to the Eagles because everyone is going to look at this and again this is psychological just because
there's a plus in front of the Eagles. Oh the disrespect. Oh my god, Carson Wentz all these weapons to Seawan Jackson. Look, DeShawn Jackson's a boomer bust guy. That was a revenge game on a team that he didn't want to be.
A part of. That's narrative rights itself.
That's Sean Jackson one oh one that when he's motivated, he gets behind a defense. When he's not, he can take some stuff off. So the Falcons need to not you know, need to not be oing to. That's that's number one. The Eagles got out of Washington with a division win, so in theory, could they you know, kind of lose this one and be okay?
Sure? I don't know.
Public bet percentages are a very weird thing. When I look at this, I just didn't I make this line much different and be honest with you, but I understand it. Thought, what would you make it minus three and a half Eagles?
Yeah, that's right. I mean that that's the thing. That's what's sort of stuck out to me here. I'm shocked. I imagine it's going to move. Do you think they're going to leave it where it is? Or do you think it's going to depend on the money that comes in?
Here's my thing is it depends on the camp that you're in, because if it most from Eagles minus one to Eagles minus two, it's no difference to me.
And that's the psychological aspect.
But you would feel better about betting the Eagles if it was Eagles minus two almost rather than if it was Eagles because you feel like you're missing something, right, that's the psychological aspect of these numbers that you really have to start to take advantage or at least be self aware of of what's happening to you. And I just talked you through it. That's that plus one just makes you say, something is so wrong here. I have
to stay away. Sometimes it is, sometimes it isn't. I would say a lot of people would feel a lot better about this if it was just Eagles minus one instead of plus one. So to me, look, I make this Eagles minus three and a half on a pure handicap kind of last week aside, you know, taking account for narratives and kind of what happened and injuries and all that. So look a little short to me is what I would say.
Yep, I agree. All right, let's hit our last game, Browns at the Jets. The Browns are laying two and a half. The over under is forty six. What are your thoughts here?
Overreaction central here? Look, Cleveland was favored by I believe seven if they look aheadline at this, but you know time and time ago and now because they drop a divisional game in their opener, and now the hype train and now it's the same old Browns and it's this And look, I am not a Brown's believer. I believe that you see what you know, look what your eyes are showing you, and look at the data, and you
can largely discount some stuff. And I thought that when the hype gets so real, you can look this In college football in Nebraska Ucla, there's all these different, you know, kind of hype trains. The Chargers every year are a big one for the general public. This is a very short look at either Cleveland goes oh in two and the season's over. You know, that's the narrative that'll be floated,
and the Jets go one in one. This is a big, big overreaction for a Jets team that won, you know, three quarters against I would say, a pretty equal Buffalo team. Those games are always back and forth. Look, Cleveland dropped their opener and now they're all of a sudden, I think that their narrative, maybe even though it's not true, is the backs against the wall, because it would be such a story if they did start oh in two. And there's you know, the biggest Super Bowl liability for
sports books. I don't say this very often because I'd like to fade public hype, but I think that that Browns minus two and a half when you look at looking at it look ahead, that was about seven overreaction Central was my first thought.
Do you think it's going to move in favor of the Browns.
I think this is the ultimate middle opportunity for professionals. I think if it gets to a three, you'll see a minus one twenty three and a half and a minus one twenty two and a half. And most professionals that I know would look to middle that every single time, taking both sides.
All right, that's some good stuff, and thank you for not speaking ill of the Jets like you have for the rest of the podcast. I really appreciate that. Come on, I'm just kidding, buddy, you did great and now you know, as a Jet spent I'm used to it anyway. But that's gonna do it for today's show. Christian, thanks so much for joining me. I'd love to have you back on later in the season to give your reaction to the opening lines and make some picks next time.
Absolutely, my friend. Thank you so much for the opportunity to take care. We'll talk soon, all.
Right, great, Thanks again to the sponsor of today's show, bet MGM. Remember to download the bet MGM Sports app and use the promo code Harris to get your risk free five hundred dollars wager. And don't forget to enter our September contest where we're giving away a signed Alvin Kamara helmet. Just leave a review for the show on iTunes or Stitcher and send a screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com. We'll be back later this week giving some of our best bets for Week two.
I'll talk to you then.
Oh, it's