Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast. I'm your host Thomas Maiola and joining me is always none other than the Oracle himself, Matthew Friedman. And today we have a very special guest with us, VI Sin's own Wes Reynolds is here to help us break down the week two lines. Wes, how are you doing today? It is a pleasure to have you here.
Good to be on with you guys week two. You know it's always the overreaction reek week, right, but some of the reactions need to be reactions based on what we saw. But I think this is kind of a tricky card this week. It's not like last week. And I know, Tom, you and I were talking in the lead up before we started recording here that last week we kind of thought was going to be a little bit of carnage, especially was in a lot of the
survivor pools, a lot of these favorites going down. But I think really one of the reasons was because Week one has almost become the new Week four and NFL preseason. I think with so many of these starters sitting out, especially these quarterbacks. Quarterbacks were three and eight did not take a snap in the preseason, so it takes a couple of weeks for these guys that develop chemistry with
the receivers and especially with the offensive line. I think that's what I really noticed in Week one, a lot of these offensive lines very much out of kilter.
I think you hit the nail on the head with that, the fact that there's a lot of rush to shake off for a lot of these teams, and we saw just too many large favorites, too many touchdown home favorites that just could not cover that kind of spread. Matt, what did you think from Week one?
Yeah, I mean an entertaining week. It was boring, like in the first go of it, like the early slate for the first you know, like three quarters relatively boring, low scoring games, and then like all of them came together and we had some pretty epic finishes there. And then the afternoon slate, not many close games there, but it was fun to see the Chiefs just absolutely ball out. So a good a good slate, and I think it has resulted in some inflated lines for Week two, you know,
with the overreaction that we almost always see. So it's an interesting slate for sure.
I love how you talk about how a lot of the games were boring and then they all come together and we got exciting finishes. But your favorite game, the one you wanted to highlight, was the absolute blowout that wasn't competitive, not interesting, decided in the first quarter.
Oh, it wasn't interesting, and like, oh, this is a close game, but it's sort of compelling of like how good is this Chiefs team? You know, because for me that was one of the big questions entering the year where I was aggressively rating them in my power rating system, and I don't want to say like I was right, but you know, like it's an indication that I wasn't horribly wrong in terms of Week one, and you know, continue to evaluate and see how they do after that.
But it was it was nice to see them be inventive and be able to scheme in a new way and move on from Tyreek Hill and still have an awesome offense.
My preseason terrible time take was like the smartest guy in the room take was the Chiefs are going to struggle. And then I saw two preseason series and I was like, Okay, we're good. None of that, They're just fine. I'm glad I got off that.
To your guys's point, Like I was saying, with Kansas City, they take a lot of different approach here, because look, you always want to protect your stars and not get them hurt and have them available for the regular season. But if you see what Andy Reid does, and he didn't do it every game, I don't think in the third game Mahomes and company really played. But you know, that first preseason game against the Bears, like if there was a game to sit guys, it might have been
that one. Mahomes and the starters played essentially the first quarter. And that's what Reed always does in the preseason. It's like, Okay, the ones are going to play the first quarter, the twos are going to play the second quarter, and then everybody else is going to finish the game in the second half. And I think that there's something to that.
Even if you're only getting limited reps on one or maybe even two series in the first quarter, getting live game reps, and it's still you know, people might call it fake football, it's still real football because guys are playing for jobs and this is still for real. Even though in the end of the gay it doesn't really matter. But still I think that that speaks to why you
saw the Chiefs so sharp. And that's one of the games I didn't have acting on for Week one last Sunday, But you know, when it plays out, you're like, yeah, you know, you kind of see that. You know they're sharp to start the season and some of these other teams are still really trying to figure it out.
I think that you're completely right with that. It's without the fourth week of the preseason to really play all of those other guys and use the third week as a dress rehearsal. It is that teams are going to be sharper if they are taking advantage, like Andy Reid is of Okay, I'm gonna drip feed my team, get them just ready so that they're coming back from the offseason and we get to Week one and they have at least a ramp up into full game speed.
Can I push back just a little bit not to say that you guys are wrong, and I think generally you're right. I do think that the McVeigh anecdote is interesting with him always resting his team during the preseason and then up until this season being five to zero against the spread in Week one, where his team's historically, and so maybe this is just a McVay specific thing where whatever it is, something that they're doing in training camp.
His teams normally are sharp in the first couple of weeks of the season, even though they're not getting that action. But I do think that we haven't seen enough of a sample to be able to say that other coaches have the ability to replicate what McVeigh has done. He might be the outlier.
The other flip side here to this argument is you look at the Packers. They get shellacked twice in a row in Week one now going back to last season, but what else did the Packers do last year? They won the NFC, they were the one seed. It's it is that question of does the preseason rest make you sharper later in the season?
Is it?
By that point it doesn't really matter, and that you've gone over the course of a whole season and on aggregate, the rest in the beginning there doesn't affect you. By then, who's to say? I'm not sure. I'm not claiming that I know the answer, and I'm saying that teams should or shouldn't start their starters in the preseason and.
In general, what we're seeing in Week one too. I think, why we see the underdogs do so well everybody. I know this is gonna be coach speak and a cliche. We're all zero and zero, but in reality they are in Week one. So you get all these teams, and you know, I had a couple ugly underdogs. Unfortunately Tom's Jets didn't get there. For me, that was the outlier, but most of these bad underdogs actually did get there
because you had the Bears and the Seahawks. You know, those are two examples, and those are two teams that I don't think are gonna be very good. So I don't think you want to say, okay, really upgrade these guys because they got to win in Week one. I
still think they're bad teams. But when you get here heard all summer that you know you're getting crapped on, and you got schmucks like me that are betting Bears for the worst record at twelve to one at the end of the season, and they come out and play very well. It's kind of a perfect storm for some of these road favorites to go out and lay an egg a little bit in Week one. Denver, of course, did it on Monday night, not the best performance for
Nathaniel Hackett. I'm not willing to fire him and call him the worst coach ever after week one. But it wasn't just the end. There was some questionable you know, designs there on the goal line. So it was a bad performance. I'm willing at least to dismiss it as that from week one. So that's why you don't necessarily
want to overreact. But going back to what you said about the Chiefs, Look, they were very sharp, and I was wondering, Okay, have we downgraded the Chiefs too much, or that we upgraded the rest of the Vision just to say that they got better, because all the rest of the Vision teams obviously made very notable acquisitions.
You completely hit the nail on the head with the wildness of week one and Nathaniel Hackett's schemes being a little suspected. I'm willing to say that you should probably be fired if you run out of the shotgun on the goal line. I don't think you should have a job in the NFL. That's just my opinion here.
Yeah, I look, I'm old school in that way. It's like, Okay, there are some times, yeah, you can run pistol or something like that. But a lot of times, you know, hat on hat, and I mean, I know that sounds like, you know, I'm back in the stone Age here saying that. But it's like, line up, get me a yard, get me in the end zone. And sometimes it is that simple, and we over complicate things in this game.
I just loved the Twitter takes of oh why is Belvin Gordon running that ball at the one? It should be Javonte Williams. He doesn't fumble that. He doesn't fumble that. Oh man, that was pretty sweet. Some instant karma watching that happen. But right now, guys, let's dive into some Week two. We've spent enough time talking about what was. We need to talk about what will be. And let's start off with two teams that frankly I am struggling to get a read on here. Through one week. We
have the New England Patriots at the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers, of course, we're able to win that overtime Cincinnati game that nobody really seemed to want to win. The Patriots got shellacked by the Dolphins yet again. Bet MGM has this line at Patriots minus two on the road and Matt, what are you thinking here as far as the side in this game.
Yeah, I like the Steelers in this spot, and you know there are matchups in it that I like, but a lot of it is just Tomlin as a dog and Tomlin at home right as an underdog, He's forty six twenty three and two against the spread for his career, Like that is a phenomenal record at home, sixty three fifty five and three, and you put it together, Tomlin as a home underdog is fourteen three and two against the spread. I think the I know TJ. Watt is out,
that definitely hurts this defense. And I think Watt is worth maybe a point a point and a half to the spread. He's one of the few non quarterbacks who actually makes an impact against the line. But I still think that the Steelers have a little, I want to say, an advantage, but I don't think they are. They are as disadvantaged as people expect them to be without TJ. Watt. So last year, the Patriots had one of the best
rushing offenses in the league. The Steelers had a mediocre at best run defense in Week one, though it looked pretty different against the rebuilt Bengals offensive line. The Steelers defensive front seven. They were pretty strong. They held running back Joe Mix into just three yards per carry on twenty seven attempts. And like the Bengals the Patriots, they
altered their offensive line this offseason. They traded guard Shack Mason, they lost left guards Ted Carris, they moved offensive tackle Trent Trent Brown and and Isaiah Win switched them switch sides to left tackle, the right tackling right tackle, the left tackle Michael and Wenu. He went from right tackle in twenty twenty and left guard and right tackle last year to right guard. And then they drafted Cole Strange.
So they have a significantly rebuilt offensive line. And on top of that, they shifted away this offseason from a gap heavy power rushing scheme to a Shanahan style zone blocking scheme. And it's not to say that they are all zone blocking now, but they have moved in that direction and the results were not positive. In Week one, They're running backs combined for just seventy one yards on nineteen carries. And TJ. Watt, you know, obviously great player,
defensive Player of the Year. Where he makes the biggest difference is as a pass rusher, not as a run defender. The Steelers still have Cameron Hayward, Larry Ogunjobi, Chris Wormley, Tyson Alua Luo. They have those guys in the interior to be able to challenge the Patriots in the trenches. And I think with the Patriots, especially with Mac Jones having the back issue that he's dealing with, I think they're going to lean all the more into the running game.
Not as if they need much of an excuse to lean on the running game anyway, that's what their offense is predicated on. I just don't know how much success they are going to have running the ball against the Steelers front, and even without TJ. Watt, I think they're still going to be able to assert themselves in that way. So I think this is a closer game than not
a closer game than people would expect. But I think the Steelers are able to keep it close and I think they should actually be favored in this spot.
Yeah. Ah no, I was gonna say for me, even though it's dropped a little bit, I still like the total at under forty and a half. I still think that there is a little bit of value there. Even though forty one is kind of an old key number with totals, but maybe not in the new NFL with more possessions and obviously more kicking gain problems with the
extra points being missed. But I still think that the under can be sponsored here because if you look at the Patriots now second straight road game, only scored seven in Miami. This isn't a recent pattern though for the Patriots. If you go back all the way to two twenty sixteen, I think Patriots on the road correlating that with the unders, it hits like two thirds of the time. This is going back to Tom Brady being the quarterback in Foxborough, so
this isn't just exclusively a mac Jones thing. I thought the Patriots defense was a little bit better in the second half. They had only allowed like seventy yards until they fumbled at the end trying to get it to a one score game, and then Miami was just able to run out the clock with fifty more yards. But I thought the defense was okay. Patriots still struggled to run the ball. They really struggled to run the ball in the preseason. I think the rise in the line
because it was down at one and a half. Now you're seeing some two and even some two and a half in the market. I think it's because they think mac Jones is going to go ahead and play here, so they're not have to go to Brian Hoyer, Whereas I think if they went with Brian Hoyer, then the Steelers absolutely would be favorites, and there may be a discussion of whether they should be or not. So Steelers on a teaser leg I think would make sense. I don't know if I'm willing to take the two, but
I like these teasers. And that's kind of a general point I want to make about these Wollteezers, which historically are very good obviously teasing through the three and the seven, even though those numbers may not be as key as they were even five or ten years ago. But I think those numbers are more key when you have lower totals, because I think we could use last Thursday Night's game
as an example. Those six points don't have as much value when you have one of the top offenses like a Buffalo, like a Kansas City, But when you have these teams that are more middle of the pack or even down below the Mendoza line on offense and you have these low totals, then those Wolteezers are going to matter. And I think you saw that materialize in that Cleveland Carolina game last week.
Yeah, absolutely, absolutely.
Well, Wes, you talk about potential teaser spots if you're looking for something to pair the Steelers with the Saints at two and a half or someone, have your eye on here against the Bucks.
Yeah, I bet three already, and you know, I think you might see three again depending on what the injury report is for Campa Bay. But I just look at the fact that now they're left tackle is questionable. They already lost Ryan Jens and they already lost Aaron Stinny. We know that they were replacing guys on the O line anyway. Shaq Mason is new, even though TV twelve has played with him for years up in New England. But this offensive line, and I think you saw the
game plan. I don't even think it was just game specific against Dallas. I think Tampa Bay is going to try to run the ball a little bit more this year. And I think that's the direction of Tom Brady's saying, Okay, let's mix it up because all these great quarterbacks, everybody thinks that Okay, they want to pile up these stats
and whatnot. All the elite quarterbacks, Manny Brady, you know, Mahomes, all these rogers are like, hey, let's run the ball a little bit more because they don't want to get hit, especially if they're not confident about the offensive line. So I still think even when Godwin gets back, I think he's going to be out for this one. But even when he gets back, I don't expect you're going to see Tom Brady throwing the ball thirty five forty times. He led the league in pass attempts last year at
forty four years old. I don't think Leftwich and Todd Bowles and more specifically Tom Brady want that to happen again. So you're going to see them run the ball. And I think the Saints pass rush can be dangerous, even though they had zero sacks last week. But you get Davenport, you get Jordan, They've been able to get pressure on Tom Brady and he they've really kind of been as scryptonite except for that playoff game. In the regular season,
the Saints have really owned these guys. And I know kind of a you know, not complete performance from New Orleans in Week one in Atlanta, but they did come back from down sixteen, so sometimes there's something to be said for momentum. So I think the Saints could absolutely be a teaser piece with the Steelers one we'll get to later too. With the Carolina Panthers.
I'm completely with you here. I was actually listening to our friends over with our sister at Fantasy Pros Joe Pi, Sapia and Andrew Er. We're talking earlier on their show about the Saints defense is kind of built to stop Tom Brady. When they face a mobile quarterback like Marcus Mariota, they don't quite know what to do and they struggle a little bit there. But take those struggles against the Falcons with a grain of salt. And also, I think
Jamis Winston started to look good. You break down that fourth quarter, two hundred passing yards, two touchdowns. He figured it out in the fourth and part of that is getting comfortable with his new receivers. Michael Thomas didn't really get a chance to play with him at all. Chris Alave obviously knew he's got a new suite of weapons to work with, and I think we're only going to see him improve over time. Here matt Any thought on the Saints.
Yeah, absolutely, with Wes, I have them in the betting pros app at Saints plus three, I bet it on the look aheadline because I thought this line would move down. I didn't think there it was going to move up. I thought, if anything, it would move down. And we have seen that the matchup between Marshaun Lattimore and Mike
Evans is must watch TV two times a year. Those guys legitimate hate each other, and for some reason, even though Latimore is not a big guy, he has been able historically, with the exception of a couple of games, he has been able to neutralize Mike Evans, which really changes the structure of what the Buccaneers are able to do on offense. And that really is the key for the Saints here. So I do like them, like Wes at this number of plus three.
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and make some money. Use the promo code Betting Pros when you sign up for a Sleeper account today, and Sleeper will automatically credit your account one hundred dollars to get you started. In terms of conditions apply see Sleeper dot com for details. Now on our last episode we had Captain Jack on. He talked about a bridge too far and how some line movements are just a little bit too far and they come back the other way. By the way, fantastic show. Check that out once you're
done here. But one of those games that he said would go too far was the Rams versus the Falcons. It moved ten and a half very briefly, but it's back down to ten at bet MGM. The Rams, of course favored in Sofi Stadium here. I personally like them to come off the mat after that shellacking by Buffalo. I think they're gonna come out strong, and I think we're gonna see the Falcons regressing a little bit. But Matt, you particularly have a leen in this game, and it is towards the Rams as well.
Right, Yeah, I like the Rams. You know, ten and a half is I believe that is the number that I'm seeing in the market. If there's a ten out there, I think it's an auto bet to be able to have the opportunity to push at that key number.
I am looking at a ten right now on bet MGM as we speak.
That's wonderful. Yes, I love the Rams here at ten. I Honestly, I'm surprised it got to ten. The Rams are dealing with some injuries, you know, Logan Bus, Ryan Allen, Joseph Noteboom, Like they're missing some offensive lineman Van Jefferson. You know, their wide receiver is out there. Their long snapper didn't practice on Wednesday. Uh uh, that feels like that might be like one of those like very sneakily important injuries. So like, you know, let's monitor to see what's going on with.
Him, as the Bengals well learned last week.
Yes, so you know, monitor the injury situation for the Rams. But I don't know, man, I think this is an overreaction to two things, you know, like what we saw out of the Rams in week one and what we saw out of the Falcons. But this line was thirteen and a half in the off season look ahead market last Thursday, in the you know, the week ahead look ahead market, it was thirteen and when it opened it was I believe eleven and a half, and you know, now it's down. I think this is this is too much.
Sean McVeigh eight and three against the spread in weeks one and two. That's sort of like the golden time to bet On McVeigh. Like all other periods of the season, he's basically five hundred against the spread to start the season is when McVeigh does his best, and he's eleven and six against the spread off a loss. You know, I think the key for this game is Cooper Cup going against two slot cornerbacks who were horrifyingly overmatched. Right, Like,
we know who Cooper Cup is. If he's not the best receiver in the league, he's one of the best. The Falcons defense is horrible against the pass. Last year was number twenty nine in past DVOA. Last week it was number thirty. We have, you know, our internal power rankings of the different units, and the Rams pass catchers have a very significant edge over the Falcon secondary. They have strength on the perimeter. Aj Terrell and Casey Hayward
are good cover corners. But Cup lines up in the slot and that's where d Alford lined up last week. An undrafted rookie good luck putting him there, and journeyman Mike Ford, who is allowed nine point nine yards per target for his career. It doesn't matter which one of those guys is out there, neither one of them is going to be able to manage Cooper Cup. So I think that is just that's one of the keys to
this matchup. But I think Cup goes off again and I think the Rams punish the Falcons for the sins of the Bills last week.
I think the other big factor here is that pass rush, like you talk about. For the Rams, Aaron Donald isn't going to have problems with a mobile quarterback. I think they're gonna be able to get to Mariota and Whigs. The Saints just wearing't wes any thoughts on this one.
Yeah, ultimately it's a pass but if I were to play it, I would rather lay it with the Rams, especially at ten with that over adjustment. I think on the look aheadline, Falcons just aren't a team I'm necessarily interested in backing at this standpoint. In Tom, I think you hit it in terms of the fact that they're kind of a tricky matchup for the Saints because they're,
you know, Mariota's quarterback. They can get out of the pocket, but you know, Mariota's a guy that will turn it over to you if you let him, and he did it a couple times last week. I think he could do it a couple times. Again. I want to see that Rams. This is what I'm waiting to see. I want to see if that Rams offensive line, if that was like, okay, they've got legit issues even though they return to everybody except No Boom is new and No Boom I think was very capable and relief last year.
So I was a little bit surprised to see those guys give up seven sacks, even though Buffalo has a pretty good pass rush. So I want to see if that was an aberration or if that was a trend. Atlanta, interestingly enough, did put up four sacks. But to Matt's point, this secondary, if they don't get home on the pass rush, this secondary is absolutely going to be hurting. And I don't think maybe you know, Matthew Stafford doesn't even have
to go with deep balls. He can go underneath the cup or Scroronic or some of those guys hit Higbee and just kind of work the middle of the field and get yards after catch on these guys. So yeah, I'd rather lay it rather than play it. But I think I'm going to stay out as.
A Cooper Cup fantasy owner. I'm very excited for this game, but a game that I am not excited for at all is watching my Jets take on the Cleveland Browns. They are six point dogs in Cleveland, which will be sporting their new ELF mascot on the fifty yard line. As a general rule of gambling, I refuse to take a team. I will absolutely not lay a touchdown with a team with an Elf on its field. I'm taking
Jets plus six solely off of that. Wes, You're also interested, but I feel you're gonna have a different take on why you like the Jets plus six in this one.
Yeah, and now you can get six and a half basically in the market, there's a couple of rogue sevens where it's just a little heavier on the Jets side, of course, on a key number. But you know the Jets last week, I'm not gonna be misled by the stats because they were down the whole game, even though it's ten three until Lamar hit that deep ball to du Verne and then it was all she wrote. But you know you're gonna see. Okay, the Jets out yarded Cleveland,
but they ran twenty six more plays as well. But one thing about the Jets, I know Baltimore was down Dobbins and they were down edwards. But the Jets strength, as you know tom is against the run defensively, so I still think even if those guys were to play that was they were going to have a pretty good performance against the run. Baltimore really didn't do a lot except for a couple of big plays, but that was enough. And obviously you don't want Joe Flacco throwing at fifty
nine times a game. That is not a recipe for success. But it's really what I'm looking at with Cleveland, and I thought Cleveland was the better team against against Carolina. They got that running game going early and that's what allowed him to keep the lead for most of the game until the end when they had to have that fifty eight yarder. But Carolina was much the better team
in the second half. I felt Cleveland was good in the first half, and then when I look, it's like, do I really want to lay a touchdown with Jacoby brisaid here eighteen to thirty four for one forty seven and a touchdown. This is not the Jacoby Brissett that was in Indianapolis. When Andrew Luck announced his retirement basically two weeks before the regular season was to start. You
saw him in Miami. He's had some injuries. He looked a little bit slower, a little bit less athletic, and you know they're going to try to rely on that running game, and that's not really the way you beat the Jets. I think the Jets can absolutely hold up up front, so Brissette is going to have to make plays. Didn't really make a ton of plays in the passing game. There's a lot of short passing to the running backs to green hunt out of the backfield, trying to hit
the tight ends over the middle. You didn't really see him take any deep shots necessarily. So this number just looks a little bit too big for me. And plus the emotion of Cleveland because everybody, you know, whenever you talk about a revenge game for a player, it's always one side of the coin and they don't look at the other side. They're like, oh, Baker Mayfield wants to
beat his old team's ass. You know, It's like, you don't think they want to kick Bakers, but too of their former quarterback and be like, yeah, man, the grass end greener on the other side here, pal. So you know that's what I think got to kind of happen there. So Cleveland comes off a little bit of an emotional, kind of a personal win in week one, and you get the Jets, who you know aren't very good. They're having Joe Flacco as well past his prime. But I
think this number. Once you see seven, and I think you'll see seven at maybe some of the more of the Squares stores, I think they'll get gobbled up very quickly. I like the Jets.
If I can get seven in this game, I'd be through the roof. But your point about Jacoby Brissette having to make plays, I like Lamar Jackson to make plays, especially against the Jets. I think the Jets defense can handle Jacoby Brissett.
Matte Brissette is what I've always said about him. He's a good enough guy not to lose a game for you, but he's not good enough to go win it for you, whereas Lamar Jackson last week was good enough with two plays. Basically, you go win the game for him.
He's a bus driver. You trust him to get the kids to school, but you're not giving him the keys to a Formula one car.
Absolutely.
What do you think, Matt, what do you think about this game?
Yeah? I have the Jets as five point underdogs, and so if it got to seven, I would I would bet it. You know, given that I can get the push on the key number underneath that, I probably still like technically should bet it. But I just don't like this Jets team enough to do that. I that's a fair point.
I can't find a hole in that argument to me, though, Like it goes back to that being a Jets fan. There's three weeks every season where the Jets randomly just get up and go win a game they shouldn't win. And I feel it in my gut that this is that kind of game. I think that this is one of those spots where we're going to be getting some Survivor contestants knocked out again because they just fade the Jets and think, oh, I'm not going to take Cleveland
later in the season, I'll take them now. I think the Jets are fully capable of winning this game outright, I mean, I.
Think that's fair. I looked at the Browns and I don't think that they're all that great of a team. Like They've They've got pieces, they certainly have players, but their offense is really bogged down because of the quarterback situation. That said, I think they'll probably be able to run the ball, and I think that kind of I wouldn't say that matters the most, but I think their offense will look competent because of their running game and they
don't have to rely too much on their quarterback. I think they hide perset in this game.
If only they could have foreseen quarterback issues coming and done something to avoid those. I don't know, but the next game up, speaking of quarterbacks, here we've got Derek Carr going up against Kyler Murray and the new Call of Duty did just have its announcement trailers coming out today. That's got to worry you a little bit if you're
taking the Cardinals here plus six versus the Raiders. Right now, let me see the most updated line here are friends at BETTMGM have this down to five and a half, and are you still interested in betting this game in this spot Matt with at five and a half?
Yeah, I have a ticket at five and a half. I mean, this one scares me because I have it power rated at one and a half, and like, this is out of all of the games I have this week, this is the one where I am way off of the market. For most of them, I'm at market or at the most like two points off, but this one, I'm four points off, and I think it's you know, I think it's an overreaction to the game that we
saw last week. And you know, I think that there's a chance that some of these guys who were out last week end up coming back this week, specifically JJ Watt, which you know, like that would be that would be significant.
But one of the big things for me is that this this feels like a yo yo type of game, like like Cliff Kingsbury, like he is a zig zag kind of coach, Like you clearly bet against him when he's at home or when he's favored, you historically bet on him when he's on the road or an underdog, and he's both in this situation, and so it's a really good thing. Like seventeen six and two against the spread on the road, eighteen eight and two against the
spread as an underdog, you put it together. As a road dog, Kingsbury is an outrageous thirteen three and two against the spread. And the Raiders have some negative trends of their own, specifically Derek Carr, who is thirteen twenty three and one against the spread as a favorite, it gets worse as a favorite against the team that went to the playoffs last year. He has won six and one against the spread. It's not good. I think the matchup for this game is Kyler Murray versus that Raiders
coverage unit. Say whatever you want about Murray, the call of duty jokes, which are fantastic.
By the way, this weekend, Yeah all I'm saying.
I know, I know. It does make me nervous. I should have checked the release schedule. The perennial second half fall off with Kyler Murray, like that's a real thing. But he's a top ten quarterback, still a top ten quarterback, especially early in the year before he's accumulated all the hits that come with the NFL season. And yes, he's without perimeter wide receivers DeAndre Hopkins Antoine Wesley. He might
also be without slot wide receiver Rondell Moore. But given how Greg Dortch I can't believe I'm saying Greg Dorsch's name, But given how Dorsch played last last week, the loss of ron del Moore might not be as big as I would have anticipated. But the Raiders also have issues. In Week one, they allowed Justin Herbert to go off seventy six point five percent completion rate ten adjusted yards per attempt. They were number thirty in drop back EPA per play. And it's not as if they were great
in pass defense. Last year they were number twenty six and drop back EPA per play. And part of the challenge for the Raiders is that they've experienced heavy turnover this offseason at cornerback, so their back end unit doesn't have great cohesion. Last year, their top perimeter corners were Casey Hayward, Trayvon Mollin, Brandon Fashion and Desmond Truefonts. All of those guys are gone. They've replaced them with Rokisin
and Anthony Everett. But Everett he's already out with an injury, which means last year's number five perimeter cornerback for the team is now starting. That is really bad. And they have slot cornerback Nate Hobbs, who is a twenty twenty one fifth rounder. He's okay, he keeps everything in front of him. The problem is he allows everything to be caught.
He has an eighty one point four percent completion rate allowed for his career like Greg Derch could have twelve receptions in this game, and the safety duo of Jonathan Abram and Trevon morg mediocre I think at best. And Morgan has a hip injury he didn't practice on Wednesday, and off ball linebackered linebacker Denzel Perryman, he's their main off ball coverage backer. He also didn't practice on Wednesday
with an ankle injury. So the and the players are adjusting to a new scheme under defensive coordinator Patrick Graham. So you put all that together and it just makes me skeptical about this Raiders secondary. And you know, I think this line is an overreaction. The offseason market had this line at two and a half. The Thursday look Ahead had this line still at two and a half. The market reopened at three on Sunday night, quickly moved to three and a half, and within twenty four hours
it was at five and a half. And you know now bouncing around between five and six. Ah Man, I think it's just an overreaction to how bad the Cardinals looked against the Chiefs in Week one. I think these teams are pretty comparable, so I will be taking the Cardinals, but I do know I am way off from the market with my line here, and so if I'm wrong, and there's a decent chance i'm wrong. If I'm wrong, I will be quickly adjusting my power ratings for the Cardinals next week.
I have a hard time envisioning the Raiders blowing any team out, and by definition, if they're going to win this game by around a touchdown, to me, that's as good as the Raiders can get when it comes to blowing anybody out. Like you said, with the secondary, their first round, their early round draft woes over the last several years have obliterated any ability for this secondary to be good. Like you said, they're using fifth round guys to try and plug these holes. That's not going to
work for you moving forward. And also, JJ Watt Broke just a couple of minutes ago said he is expecting to play this weekend. He was back at practice today, so we can break that news here on this very much not live show. I think I'm with you here. I know you're lower on the Raiders than the market and maybe than myself even personally I can't. I will be taking five and a half points if I can get them. With the Cardinals, especially if I can get six wes. What do you think.
Cardinals are nothing for me? For all the four reasons of aforementioned reasons that Matt talked about. Just the Raiders with that secondary not a team that you really want to lay as a big favorite. I think the Raiders are, you know, by and large this season, they're gonna be live as underdogs because they just get They can throw the ball, and they can gain chunk yardage plays in the passing game, so they're always going to be kind
of live. Even though they didn't quite get there last week against the Chargers, certainly had a lot of opportunities to do so in the fourth quarter. But with Arizona, I think, look, everybody was down on them. The market was down on them, and look I didn't like them, even though I didn't bet any of their season wins,
either over or under. The market was down on them because the whole Kyler thing, because of how long it took, and because of the fact that they just left you with a bad feeling at the end of the season. And sometimes that carries over. But usually with Arizona they're quick starters and slow finishers historically, and then they get beat last week by a very sharp Kansas City team, and you know, maybe it's just that they got beat by a really good team even though it was a
very comfortable win. This is a big overreaction from the look aheadline. And you know, usually when you see look aheadline to what it reopens on Sunday evening and early Monday morning, usually you're getting a point point and a half adjustment. You're not getting over a field goal adjustment here. So yeah, this is Cardinals or nothing for me. This was a game I was looking to stay away from. But as I kind of look at it a little bit more, I'm starting to like the road underdog.
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forty nine Ers they opened around ten points. This line is fluctuated from nine to nine and a half up to ten. BETMGM now has it at eight and a half point points as home favorites against the Seahawks this week. And you want to talk about overreactions, this, to me is a huge overreaction to the Seahawks win on Monday night. First off, your two goal line fumbles away from the
story of this game being completely different. And then I also, as much as I don't want to lay more than a touchdown with the forty nine ers, all I saw Monday night from the Seahawks was ten. Their strategy was allowed the Broncos running backs to break off as many ten plus yard runs as possible so that they'd be tired on the goal line and fumble. That seems to be what they were working with. Be is they were getting gashed in the run game, which is what the
forty nine ers are going to do against this team. Wes, what are you thinking here with the forty nine ers. You like them at nine, so I'm sure you like them at eight and a half in this spot, and I'm inclined to be right there with you.
Yeah. I mean, if you look at this, and I was on the Bears last week just because I kind of thought it was a perfect storm. Lance only making a second road start. No, George, get George. Kittle's going to need to be Trey Lance's best friend at least
early on in this season for his development. But I felt a little bit fortunate to get home with Chicago for the full game in the second half, because keep in mind, they were down seven tough, and then San Francisco goes and gets three right away on the first drive, so it's ten enough and the Bears had done nothing.
Once the Bears decided they were going to play school yard ball with Justin Fields and get him out of the pocket and get the Niners defense, which is pretty fast for Demiko Ryans moving in a different direction, then all of a sudden, you saw the Bears move the football.
But if you look at the stats and the box score, three thirty one to two h three yard advantage for the forty nine ers four point nine yards of play, which is not great, but three point six is even worse for the Chicago side, and yet somehow lost a six and a half seven point favorites. Bad weather conditions as well there in Chicago, so I felt that that was kind of an equalizer. Meanwhile, you look at Seattle, and I was on the Seahawks on Monday night, felt
very fortunate to get that home. I think Seattle kind of early on really surprised Denver letting Gino get out of the pocket, get him on the move and throwing the ball. I don't think Denver was expecting that, and I think that kind of set the tone for the
game for Seattle to hang around. But if you look at the numbers, four hundred and thirty three yards for Denver, two point fifty three for Seattle, Seattle did very little in the second half, So this could be I think that kind of like Bylaw or that by low Spot here for San Francisco. I know a lot of the market I don't think is gonna want to lay that
with Trey Lance. So like for some of these favorites, I don't expect this to be a very popular favorite in either the Circumvillion or the Super Contest, or any any of Pick's contests throughout the week. I think they're very lukewarm on Trey Lance because look, whenever the Twitter you know heard basically has an opinion on one side. And look, I'm kind of mixed on Trey Lance, to be honest with you, But everybody was like, that's why they kept Jimmy G. That's why they kept Jimmy G.
The guy has one bad game. So when you get the Twitter cacophony, I guess on one side, I'm tending to look the opposite way. I think the forty nine ers could roll Seattle, even though this isn't as bad of a travel spot on a short week as it would normally be for the Seahawks. But I still don't think the Seahawks are good. I just think it was a good situation for him and Denver obviously shot themselves in the foot on many occasions on Monday Night.
Trey Lance is absolutely bad. I will die on this hill. But Matt, I know that you are about to come in here and talk about Kyle Shanahan's record as a favorite, So why don't you lay the stats on us?
Yeah, I was busy looking that up. Yeah they're not pready, Yeah, no, really bad. I mean he and Cliff Kingsbury, it's like these guys are twins, all right. You bet Shanahan on the road, bet him as an underdog. You fade him at home, fade him as a favorite. As a home favorite. He is six fifteen and one against the spread. It is, and that's in the regular season. Absolutely atrocious. I mean that said, I have this line at nine point two five. So I'm like, I'm right in the vicinity of where
it is in the market right now. I'm just staying away. I'm staying away.
I'm with you. I can't. I don't want to bet on either side. I think that, like you said, Wes, the forty nine ers can low out the Seahawks. I also don't necessarily trust him to do it do it, so I'm gonna look elsewhere. Like this game of the Carolina Panthers going up against the New York Giants. Here Carolina getting two and a half bet MGM now has them more or less at two. Wes, are you still betting them at two?
Yeah, I would still bet at it two, and I would certainly use it as a teaser. And you know, I was on the Giants last week and they got out played in the first half, but then they came back. I thought they were the better team in the second half. Of course, Brian Dable making the decision to go for the lead, not necessarily the win because there was over a minute left and Randy Bullock did get a field
goal attempt that he missed for Tennessee. But you know, you can kind of see it with the Giants and why I think a lot of us did like their season wins over at six and a half and seven. With Sakuon Barkley, I do think they're a little bit of a different team. I just you know, he can run the ball and he can catch the ball. He's very good in the passing game. Daniel Jones was actually efficient when he really looked at his numbers. But here's the bugaboo with him, and you saw it with Brian
Dabole getting into it with him on the bench. He still turns the ball over way too much, and that's what he's trying to do. Daniel Jones has proven he can make plays and that he gets outside the pocket and he can find receivers. And the Giants historically, even when McAdoo was the coach, even when Joe Judge was the coach, very good road underdogs with some really bad teams over the last few years in New York. So they were in that preferred role. They got home against Tennessee.
Now you go home, they're a home favorite. Keep in mind against Carolina last year when Carolina, I think it was Week seven, I think Carolina was on like a three game losing streak and Carolina was still laying a field goal at New York. Now I know New York had like no receivers hardly for that game, but still kind of a big difference at two and a half.
So yeah, I do like Carolina. I think Carolina was better, Like I was saying in the second half, I think they were clearly the better team than Cleveland, and figure it out a little bit. And also, that was Mayfield going against his old teams, So the ducees were flowing and one of the things that you saw is he did fumble the ball four times. A couple of them were on that center quarterback exchange with the center pad Flne And I just think that's a chemistry thing that
just takes time. And I think Mayfield was probably amped up and juiced up against his old team. So I would expect a little bit more of a composed Carolina team this time around. Certainly, I think that they are at an absolute use in a teaser to get them to eight or to get them to eight and a half, because I think, you know, when you win in New York City, and Tom you're a man of the East Coast, so you know when you win in New York City, they don't overreact that they don't overreact to bad news
or good news. They're in New York straight, even gel in the New York Post and whatnot. So you know, all a sudden, Brian Dable, it's like, hey, we got something with this guy, and this just seems like the right for disappointment spot. Even though I like the Giants long term to go over their season wins, that's one thing I don't like to do early. I don't like to bet my season wins, or my division or my make or miss the playoffs. You've got to play this
on a week to week basis. So I like Carolina here as a small underdog.
I will always bet on disappointment when it comes to New York sports teams. That is always the biggest lock that you can have. Matt any thoughts on this game before we pivot to our final contest.
Uh, Yeah, it's it's one that I am certainly looking at for for you know, like circum million or you know, pick contest like that. If I'm on the side it is Carolina, it is not the Giants. Uh, you know, as as a home home favorite, that that feels disastrous for Daniel Jones.
I am completely right there with you guys. All right, one more contest here for us here, and it's another one of those ten point favorites. We got a couple whoppers this week. This is one of them. The Bears head to lambeau Field fresh off their win in the Super Bowl. They head now to Lambo to take on the Packers and Aaron Rodgers. The over under on receivers Mert fought with a wind up dead in Green Bay this season is absolutely one and a half. I'm not
even gonna lay the under. But they do get Alan Lazard back for this game, they're gonna be ten point favorites. Here from bet MGM, Matt, if you were to sign up for a bet MGM account and use your promo code betting pros to get a thousand dollars risk free bet, would you be using it on the Packers minus ten in this spot?
I mean that would be a little fishy of me, but yeah, sure, I think I would. I think this should be above ten, so you know it's ten. I think I'm going to take it with the push value there. There are injuries, you know, obviously tackle situation that we saw last week that was horrible. David Botieri, Elton Jenkins, both of them out last week, Alan Lazard out last week, Lazard, you know, Jenkins, Botieri. All of them practice on a
limited basis on Wednesday, so that is positive. I think there's a chance that at least two of those three guys returns, which that would make a pretty massive difference. Justin Field's not like like not like a two game sample is all that much, but he's only two against the spread against the Packers, three and seven against the spread as an underdog. And then Aaron Rodgers, He's got the sample size that actually has some significance, sixty five
thirty four and four at home against the spread. He crushes at lambeau Field, like that is one of the few stadiums that actually has a home field advantage. And Aaron Rodgers in Division forty eight and thirty against the spread at home in Division twenty six and twelve and going against the Bears, he owns the Bears. He's owned them his entire life, twenty and seven against the spread against the Bears in primetime thirty eight, twenty seven to
two for Aaron Rodgers. This Bear's secondary, I think is going to get sliced up. I don't think there's a question as to whether Aaron Rodgers bounces back in this game. I think the question is how big will the bounce back be. And this Bears secondary Tom you said at the Soup Bowl like, I'm not putting any stock in what it was that they were able to do last week. That was a weather aided performance going against Trey Lance, And I wouldn't say it was his first start, but
his first start as the starter for the team. I mean, this is a situation where Rogers absolutely dominates. The Bears have two rookies starting in their secondary slot, cornerback Kyler Gordon and strong safety Jakwan Brisker. You have Lizard going against it's Kyler Gordon. You have Robert Tunyan going against Brisker. Those guys might be the two most trusted pass catchers
that Aaron Rodgers has. I think he is going to exploit those two rookies in particular over and over and over, and this feels like a fourteen point game, not a ten point game.
I'm inclined to be right there with you, Wes. What do you think?
Yeah, this is the favorite of all the big double digit favorites this week that I would most want to back for all the reasons that Matt said in terms of the trends, and look, I'm not a big trend player. I like to say the trend should be your acquaintance
and not necessarily your friend. But when you have this many I think on the Green Bay side, and also Matt Lafleur, by the way, nine to zero straight up and against the number off a loss teams that lose by double digits two in week one, forty and twenty five and two against the spread. So you know, this is I think right for the picking. I think all the circumstances, it was just kind of the perfect storm for an upset for Chicago in Week one. One of these guys that's going to buy in and say, Okay,
this team's the real deal. They're going to be better than I thought. They are going to be who we thought they were, as Dennis Green once said, and I think what we think that they are as A is a very poor team, and just going into Green Bay would I would much rather lay it rather than play it. And these are usually the ones where I'm more often than not either passing or on the other side here.
But this is an underdog I'm absolutely not interested in, so I would either lay it or pass here with the pack.
Can we talk about for a second the fact that Lafleour's been the coach for what three four years now, and he's only had nine opportunities to come back from all right, Obviously there are a couple of playoff games to get tossed out there, but that's pretty incredible, guys. That is going to do it for us. In terms of our slate, breakdown real quick here before we get out. If you have to pick a Survivor team this week, where you go and Wes, We'll start with you.
Oh boy, this is tough. I would have had Philadelphia last week, so had to survive a back door if I'm going Survivor, And look, I know you, I know you want to save teams, but I think Green Bay.
Matt, how about you?
Honestly, I haven't thought about Survivor at all because I did not survive last week. Uh you know, pain pain, maximal pain. Uh if I cared, but uh man, I don't. San Francisco is kind of intriguing.
Because I won't get used either.
Yeah, you know, like I don't think I'm going to want to be on San Francisco all that much for the rest of the season, and so this might be the spot to use them.
I think San Francisco is a pretty good spot here. But the team I'm gonna go with one we didn't talk about on today's show, the Bengals. You're going up against the Cowboys with Cooper Rush. I feel like you have to play that.
Yeah, I mean I can, I can see. You know, one one quick question here since we did Tommy, I just mentioned the Bengals and the Cowboys and we haven't talked about it. One of the few games we didn't talk about. And if it feels like you know, I'd like to get your thoughts on this west The move from Dak Prescott to Cooper Rush obviously a significant drop down.
And you know, maybe that Cowboys offense was being overinflated in the market anyway, given some of the issues that they had, and now you know their offensive line is also pretty decimated this line. Let me see what it is right now. It might be as high as eight. Yeah, eight right now at bet MGM, that feels like it's too high. Yes, and so I have taken a position on the Cowboys at eight. I hate it, I absolutely hate it. But this feels like an overreaction.
Yeah, I agree. I think anything north of seven, you know, has to be an absolute take on Dallas, because one of the things you want to look at and look, I know that there's a drop off, so don't misunderstand what I'm saying here. But the Cowboys didn't look very good anyway against Stampa Bay. I you know, I just think it was it was kind of a chemistry thing.
I worry a little bit about the offensive line now with McGovern out, and of course we do have a Tyron Smith, you know, having to be out for an indefinite amount of time. But yeah, I do think it would be Cowboys or nothing. For me. I think anything north of seven because Cincinnati, by the way, even though they made a lot of moves, not only in the draft and in free agency, it's going to take time
for them. You know. Joe Burrow threw a couple bad balls but those four interceptions were not just necessarily on Joe Burrow, they were on the offensive line. So the Cowboys not only have problems there, but I think the Cincinnati Bengals also have problems there. And I think that those don't just get fixed in one week, you know. It usually takes several weeks I think for you know, even of being a little bit behind the curve on the offensive line to really get there. So that's absolutely
what I could see. So Dallas, anything seven and a half or above for me would be I think at least worth a small play.
I will say the number in a lot of spots is still seven. You can you can still find a lot of sevens. I don't know if it's going to stay around eight for very long, And you're right, when you swap out three or five offensive linemen, it takes time to build that cohesion. At eight, it's a pass
for me. At seven, I'm still leaning Bengals here. I think that this team is better than what we saw against the Steelers because, mind you, five turnovers in that game and they still only lost on a last second field goal and should have won the game had they had their actual long snapper. The game's over in regulation. That's the thing for me where I'm like, ah, this team might actually still be good. They're not going to turn the ball five times. Turn the ball over five times every week?
Yeah, I mean that's fair, and that's why I'm scared. I've taken the Cowboys a plus eight, but I don't like it. Yeah.
I assume though, long term for the Bengals is now that they are This is cliche, but they're the hunted instead of the hunter. So how do you deal with the fact that you weren't the plucky upstart last year and now you're the team that represented the AFC in the Super Bowl and people are gunning for you. People
aren't just going to look past you on the schedule anymore. So, you know, I think early in the season, that's why I was a little bit lower on the Bengals, at least to start out early, because I think they've got to get used to the fact that now they've got to deal with the whole new set of expectations.
I do agree with that. And you also have to play a first place schedule instead of a fourth place schedule now. But guys, that'll do it for us here today. Once again, Head on over to bet MGM, get yourself signed up for an account, use the promo code Betting Pros, and your first bet will be a one thousand dollars risk free bet on whatever you want it to be. But for now, that is going to do it for us here, Wes, thank you so much for joining us,
Thank you g having me. Where could people find you in the great work you're doing.
Yeah, at Wes Reynolds and the number one on the and also at VSA dot com. We ride up different games and then of course I am on Live bet Tonight every Monday due Friday from six to nine Pacific nine to twelve Eastern with my co host and me
at Bevave. So we get into the live betting not only with football when we have it on during the weeknights, but we'll be having baseball playoffs soon and especially when basketball gets started, it's going to really get coming and have a lot of stuff and it'll move very fast for a three hour show.
Thank you guys so much for listening today. Don't forget to throw us that five star rating and that subscription and of course has always clicked that notification button. Guys for Matt Friedman and West Reynolds on Thomas Viola and let's cash some tickets.