Hey there, everybody. Welcome back to the Betting Pros podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris. Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris. Eighty Week two is here. It is time to talk about our best bets for the week. And here with me to do that is my good friend Rich Ryan, co host of The grid Iron Gamble podcast. Find him on Twitter at rich t Ryan. Rich It's been a while since we've talked. How are you.
I'm great. I'm in the throes of new fatherhood. I have a ten week old. As we discussed pre record, That's why I've got the hat on. During quarantine, it was acceptable to walk around with insanely long hair, but now quote unquote post pandemic, it's not so hiding the hair. But happy to be here.
I think you look great, and obviously I'm a big fan of the Mets. Unfortunately we are both Jets fans. It is a terrible plight that we have to bear. And yet that was the one bet that I nailed last week, was the Jets plus five point five against the Panthers. There it is all that along. Okay, So you guys know how this works. We each are going to give our three best bets they could be totals,
they could be spreads. Whatever you want to do. Then we will quickly run through all the rest of just the spreads just to talk about whether we have a lean or not. But before we do it, let's get to some housekeeping items, including a new offer from our sponsor, bet MGM. This is a good one, guys. For new customers, bet five dollars on any NFL game anything you want,
win one hundred dollars in free bets. If either team scores a touchdown when you use the code right you want it on that it's the code Juice one hundred. Juice one hundred. That is again the Daily Juice that is one of our betting podcasts. That's where the juice comes from. But the code is Juice one hundred. Again, pick a side, pick a money line, pick a total, doesn't really matter. If either team scores a touchdown, regardless of it, the team you bet on wins the game,
you get one hundred dollars in free bets. Again, code juice one hundred. And for new users at bet MGM, second, let me remind you of our giveaway. It's assigned to a tongue of I loaded jersey entry is very simple. Leave review for the show on Apple Podcasts or cast box, and then go to Betting Pros dot com slash review. If you are a subscriber to our YouTube channel where you can watch this podcast. If you want to see Rich's glorious hair, then it's at YouTube dot com slash
betting Pros. Again, if you are a subscriber to that, it counts as three additional entries, And again we do a Sunday Morning Lives stream over there eleven to twelve. We give out some props, we give out some of our best bets at well on Sunday. All right, how do you feel rich? Are you confident in your picks? Today?
Kind of week? Just tough. We've got a lot of really good teams on the road as short favorites. We've got some elite teams at home as massive favorites. But I think I've done a decent job of minings from some overreactions in week one and hopefully out some winners.
I think that's always a big one, right, is the week one overreaction, avoid the part in week two. That's generally my philosophy, which we'll get to in one second. We'll start with Rich, we should recap last week, though it wasn't a great week. Although our favorite bet with Sean Greenho was our guest favorite bet was the Seahawks laying two and a half to the Colts. That was Sean's official play. I allowed him to take it because
he wanted it. That was us. He missed on his other one, the Titans minus three, which narrowly missed by one hundred and fourteen points, and the Pats minus three also missed. There. My official bets after Shawn took Seattle was the Deets getting five and a half. You needed that half a point and again when it closed, I think it was four and a half, but at five
and a half. It did hit the Titans Cardinals over fifty two and a half, which still hurts my soul because they were basically midway through the third quarter they were at fifty one. I kind of counted that prematurely in the win column. And then the Eagles Falcons over forty and a half, which just missed on. So there you go. Gotta do better this week, Rich, you get to start us off. Give it to me your top bet of the week.
So let's go back to the Queen City of Carolina where you faded the Carolina Panther. There's last week. Good job getting the best of the number there because, like you said, you covered by the skin of your teeth. But a win is a win is a win is a win. And talking about overreactions, the best team last week in a national spotlight where the New Orleans Saints they come out and they absolutely mollywop the Green Bay Packers. It's a Sean Payton masterclass. He is a tremendous coach.
You know, I myself coming to the season, I was very much questioning New Orleans. I think the remnants of Hurricane and Ida kind of pushed me over the edge, the fact that they were going to be displaced for the first quarter of the season. But maybe I just failed to recognize just how much of a tremendous coach Sean Payton was putting together such a good team these last couple of years with very much a maybe net negative at quarterback and Drew Brees, somebody who couldn't push
the ball downfield. And the first time he gets an opportunity to get Jameis Winston under center, I mean he lets loose. He sinks you in with play action, gets the run game going and then takes deep shots and Jamis did that quite well. But I think this line is just a little bit too rich for a Saints team that let's face it, they do want to play a little bit more conservative, both on offense and I mean being a good defense. I think they're going to
be in some more rock fights than people anticipate. And the Panthers looked fine last week. Most importantly, they looked really good on defense. And I know what you're saying, pump the brakes. It's the New York Jets. It's a dilapidated offensive line, it's a rookie quarterback. But when you can pressure with guys like Brian Burns and you can cover in the back, you can have some success in this league. On top of that, we're seeing a lot
of injuries right now for the Saints. Kwan, Alexander, Marcus Davenport, Marshawn Lattimore all DNPS on Wednesday. Marshaon Latimore carries a doubtful status and we know that about single digit percentage players that carry that status end up making it to Sunday. On top of that, their IR situation is pretty bad. Ken Crawley on the iar is one of the reasons why they traded for Bradley Roby last week. No tray Quan Smith, of course, no Michael Thomas. So very limited
on offense, banged up on defense. So I think this is gonna be quite a low scoring game. And I think the Saints can the Panthers can keep it competitive with their receiver corps. I mean, Bradley Roby and Paulson Adivo are gonna be in tough situations against three really good receivers in Dj Moore, Robbie Anderson and Terrace Marshall. So and Donald, you know, I'm still a Truther eight yards?
Are you? Are you? Are you like? Are you high on him? Long term?
I think Donald is at minimum a league average quarterback and he needs to be rained in. He needed to escape Adam Gase.
Uh.
And I think the Panthers will be just fine. I think this is gonna be a close contested game. I could see the Panthers winning outright. I don't think that would be too insane. So yeah, give me the Panthers plus three and a half.
If only there were any history of a quarterback looking like probably not even fit for the NFL under Adam Gase and then escaping and then becoming one of the best quarterbacks. We may talk about that. QUI back a little bit later. I'm not ready to declare Sam Donald below average or above average or average. I don't know what Sam Darnold is yet, because again I agree with you, I think it's completely unfair to judge him based on
what happened in New York. I will say to add to your point in this game, and I'll get to my thoughts very quickly. Is the Saints are also dealing with COVID among their coaches, like right, like a lot of their coach not Peyton obviously, but a lot of their coaching staff is kind of just working on their couches right now, doing from home, don't you know, discount that impact as well as you get ready for the game plan. So there are a lot of signs here.
And again you know, it's not the quintessential by Loo because the Panthers one against the Jets, you know, so it's not like your people are down on them or anything like that. But you are selling high on the Saints, which is what you do in week two when people overreact, and for me, Saints played great, but you're absolutely right. The number of injuries on defense is really remarkable, and the one thing the Panthers can do. They have a good offensive system, of course, and they have the three
wide receivers who you mentioned again. They have DJ Moore, they have Robbie Anderson. I liked what I saw of Terrest Marshall, and of course they have Christian McCaffrey, probably the best, you know, just non quarterback offense player in the game right now. So I don't hate it. I probably won't bet it just because it scares me, but I do think that last week was also sort of a weird combination of factors where I think, you know, it was very, very hot, and I think the Packers
probably weren't necessarily prepared for it. They just looked gas and out of sort. So I think it was as much against the Packers as it was the Saints. So I don't hate it. If I had to take a side, I would take the Panthers. But I am a little scared. And that's funny considering what my number one best bet in which is something that you I think we should be honest before I told everybody last week Sean and
I did not exchange picks before. And he came out of the gate with seattles or whatever and you and I said, you want to exchange picks? And I said, sure, whatever, send him over and you hadn't yet this morning, and I said, all right, well, these are my three picks. I'll get off one if you want. And my first pick was the Vikings getting three and a half from the Cardinals. And do you remember what you wrote back to me after I sent.
You that, Thank the heavens, Thank the heavens that I don't have to tout this game and somebody else has to because I wanted to trust me. But I will run tail between my legs and I will give the floor to you. Mister Ayres.
This is the quintessential game that you look at and you say, I have to take this game. But I have no interest in taking this game. Like that is what this is like. It feels grotesque to even do it. But when I was looking at it, I was like, you're gonna give me more than a hook. I'm going to take it right now. And again, this is a theme, and it looks like you're on the same theme. And I think if you look historically it bears out, you know, it's fruitful that when you fade, generally a lot of
the big things that you saw. And the Jaguars beat the Colts last year in Week.
One, right never they ever ever won a game ever again.
And may never again as well. But yeah, that although maybe we don't know this week, but regardless, bottom line is this, Like the Viking did look bad in this game against the Bengals, they still could have won. Obviously. The Cardinals looked like absolute world beaters in this game. But again, I think it's a little bit of an overreaction and spoiler. Like we'll talk about the Titans in a little bit because that's another one of my picks.
But I think a lot of what we saw with that Cardinals Titans game is on the Titans, not the Cardinals. I mean, look, the Cardinals are a very good offensive system. Deonder Hopkins is amazing, Climber is incredible, I like Rondell Moore what We're going to see a ton of good things from them. But I don't think that defense is
anything close to what it showed. I think that the Titans really and I mentioned this before earlier this week, actually is that I think that really the Titans, whether it was the COVID situation that prevented them from practicing a lot, or whether it was just the general injury concerns, they just weren't ready for that game and they didn't play well, and I expect them to correct it right now. So I don't think you're going to see as good
as Chandler Jones is. I don't think you're going to see the team have you know, six sacs or whatever they had. Again, I think the defense is going to allow points against the Vikings team, by the way, who offense can very easy put up points, whether it's through Dalvin Cook, whether it's through Adam Fieln, who looked like he had sort of found the fountain of youth. And that's not even talking about Justin Jefferson, pardon me. And
again kJ Osborne also sort of showed up suddenly. So I think they're going to be able to put up points. If you look historically, it's how the Vikings sort of react. They're usually played pretty well after a loss to under Mike Zimmer and really, you know, they had to lose a lot of new starters, you know, in their first game. I don't know if that corrects itself immediately in the second game, but they had a ton of penalties in that game. I expect them to probably do better. And
again their defense. I like their secondar I mean, Patrick Peterson maybe a little intel on what they're going to see here from Arizona. So this is just a game man that this screams to me something of the public is going to absolutely hit the Cardinals in this game. They're going to love the Cardinals. They're going to fade the Vikings, and I just think that the Vikings are pretty obviously like the right side to be on. It just makes me want to bombit a little bit in my mouth to have.
To make this pick. I mean, you can see it on the betting Pro's matchup page. Right eighty three percent of people are selecting.
You looking at the matchups page. That's my guy.
I know, I'm a chameleon. I know where I'm at. We're looking at a two point look ahead that went to and through the key number of three, so we're getting value there. It opened at four and a half, it's already come down, so that means influential money is coming in on the Vikings. This is a classic overreaction spot. As you noted, Mike Zimmer I think has the coaching advantage. Kirk Cousins might be a better quarterback. I've never been really a Kyler Murray guy. I think he has a
lot of limitations when it comes to decision making. He threw a bone hited interception against Tennessee. I don't know if that's going to correct itself, and against a Vikings defense that tends to be very aggressive. Mike Zimmer is very gap competent, meaning that he designs blitzes to take away all to attack all of your weaknesses. And if Kyler is pressure in his face, I don't know if he's always going to make the best decision given what's
in front of him. So the thing that does put the fear of God to me is the reports that Kyler was injured towards the end of last year. So maybe some of my negative outlook on the kid is the fact that he was actually being a tough SOB
and playing through a shoulder injury. On top of that, speaking of COVID, there's just a dark cloud over Minnesota and the kind of tug of war that they're dealing with in their locker room and the division that comes through COVID when their leader won't get vaccinated, and it's putting it's putting a lot of pressure on the organization. When the coach wants people to get vaccinated, he's threatening the fire coaches that won't get vaccinated and the leader
of the team, the quarterback, won't take the vack. So there's just this cloud that's hanging over Minnesota that has me a little bit worried. But you're right, this is a classic a one week one overreaction line. Moved an insane amount from the look Ahead, and I think you just have to blindly click the dog.
In this spot. It's good. It's a good point on the look at You're right, that was it's a big move here. And again everybody's still going to be on the Cardinals in my guards. Yeah, the books are going to be completely happy about that, and you know that that's what they want with the way they see it, with your point re cousins and and the vaccine. I really do think that that is a reason to fade
them long term on the season. I really do think, because I think just given the protocols, forget about anything else. The protocols that the NFL has put in means that I think it's highly likely that Cousins is gonna miss at least a game this season just because he'll be a close contact or something and there'll be something that he won't be able to get out of. So I think long term, I am worried about the vikings for one game. In the bounce back spot, I'm holding my nose.
I want to do it. Let's go to pick number two. What do you got?
I was gonna say, let's keep holding our nose though, Oh yeah, more, All right, let's go. We are selecting the Jacksonville Jaguars plus six at home against the Denver Broncos. I'm not that much of a coward. I said it was a coward for not clicking the vikings, But this is me grabbing my shield and being a hero. Thirty percent of folks on betting pros are selecting this team.
Let's just use some math. Real quick. Homefield advantage is about one point nine right now, that's what we're working with. So if this game was in Denver, the Broncos would be minus ten. So what this is saying is that the gap between the Broncos and the Jaguars is only one point fewer than the gap between the Packers and the Lions, Packers sitting at minus eleven. That doesn't really
work for me. The Packers are a team with Super Bowl aspirations, one of the greatest quarterbacks we've ever seen, coming home after a loss playing against the Lions team that I know they backdoored if you got the number late, but they were absolutely destroyed by the San Francisco forty nine ers. Back to back East Coast trips for Denver eighty six degrees and rainy is projecting to be fifty six percent chance of precipitation. So we're talking about an
ugly game. And just like the team that I just mentioned, the Saints with injuries, the Broncos placed run Darby on IR, a big free agent signing for them. Jerry Judy's on IR guard Graham Glasgow, experienced heart palpitations during the game, went to the hospital after the Giants game didn't travel back. With Denver covering six on the road in pro football means you're going to go out, get a lead and extend the lead, and I just don't trust Teddy Bridgewater
to do that. I know it's the Jacksonville Jaguars. I know this is something that people out there aren't going to run to the window to bet. I know Vic Fangio against a rookie quarterback is terrifying, but three point look ahead blasts all the way to six. Just like what you said about the Minnesota Vikings, I think you just have to hold your nose, click the dog, and just don't watch. When red zone shows this game, change it to QVC or something. Just don't watch a single snap in this game.
Yeah, QVC, it's going to be better than watching this game, is probably correct. Ah. So look, this sort of goes to everything that we're saying. I think probably the Jaguars strike me as the sharp side. I can't do it, though, only because I can't. No, I can't. I mean you're I think you're right, just because holy cow, man, like, there are disasters in the NFL, and you and I, obviously being fans of the Jets, are quite familiar with
how that works. But I don't know if I've ever seen a coach like urban Meyer come in here and screw everything up so quickly and just make things worse every second of the day. This is bizarro world. I think on paper, you're right, this spread is too much and the sharp side is the Jaguars, but it really isn't. And maybe that's narrative, like maybe that's not something that we should consider as better, but it is something I
have to consider as better. And I don't even know what he was doing that, Like, I don't know how you come out and you say against the Texans, you go, I'm just gonna let Trevor Lawrence throw all day right from the start, and you're gonna say, I really want Carlos Hide to back more than jad Johnson.
No, James comes in. They have a free running back, right, someone that they're not paying anything to. They use first round draft equity on Travis Aten, so you feel like they're forced into using James Robinson. Okay, they tried to make mistake, the mistake was taken away from him, and he just starts plunging with Carlos It's.
So nuts, it's nuts, And look, Carlos side's very capable backup. James Robinson did nothing last year to suggest that without ETN he needs to be benched or anything. Just maddening. Man. So for me, it's just like I could see the back door cover. I don't. I don't see a way that the Jaguars are gonna win this game. They could, obviously, you never know. It's we're avoiding overreactions. This is not an O reaction against the Broncos, Like, I don't care
really what they did against the Giants. I thought they looked fine, basically what I expected. But it's something where I can't get mentally over the point of just being like, I can't voluntarily put money down on the Jaguarts right now, which is fair. A team that I can voluntarily put money down on is the Titans. We're getting five and a half from the Seahawks. They're in Seattle. That's never good time. I'm just looking up exactly. So it's it's
about fifty to fifty right now. Fifty two percent of our experts are taking the Seahawks, forty eight percent taking the Titans. So let's continue our trend rich of making plays that do not make us feel warm and fuzzy in this one. We know Seattle's a very difficult place to play, and they look great with their new offensive scheme last week, and the Titans looked like the worst you know team in football. But again this is me really? I am really, and maybe I'm overreacting in sort of
the positive way. I'm basically throwing out everything that we saw from the Titans last week. I think it was just a we have not practiced whatsoever. I mean, put aside everything else. Tannel and Julio Jones literally never practiced, like you know, I don't know how many practices I actually had together, but the whole team just was not ready to play, and that could linger, right. I mean, again, you need to catch up. But I also have an incredible amount of respect for Mike Rabel as a coach.
I think he's one of the better coaches in the NFL. I think he is going to get this team ready to play. That you know, Taylor Lwan was obviously terrible. I expect him to play better. I think the line is going to play better. I think both receivers will get more involved. I think you're going to see a better game from Dereck Henry. And again, Seattle does not have the pass rush, right, they don't have a Chandler Jones on their team. Again, they're not going to basically
be harassing Ryan Tannell. So I think offensively, I think the Titans are going to look much much better than we saw last week. And again, Seattle was good last week. They won that game handily. We figured that they would, but that wasn't that far away from being like a four point game, Like the Colts could have easily scored a touchdown gotten the two point conversion. It's a four point win, I mean, even in a game that they pretty much dominated. So it's something where I do I
expect the Seahawks to win. I do, but look, we know how the Seahawks have historically played. I mean, look at last year.
They were twelve never a normal game.
We know that there's every possibility that they will just start running the ball. But that but let's say they stick with Shane waldron'system. Four of their twelve wins last year, only four were by more than one score. Like, if you're going they like to play other games, that's just what they do. And I think that this one's gonna be a close game. Again, if I had to bet, it'd be the Seahawks winning by a field goal in this game. So I will take the five and a half.
Yeah, I tend to lean with you. I'm a little concerned with the Titans defense. But the point you bring up last week is very indicative of the Seahawks. It was very much a Shane Waldron first half and a
Pete Carroll second half. Let's salt the lead away, let's set the game away, hang on to a lead, get home, get prepped for next week when a lot of other teams in this league are extending leads and putting teams away and again, to cover five, five and a half in the NFL, you need to be extending leads and not holding on to the rock and salting games away. So the biggest problem with the Seahawks last year was the fact that when teams started showing them that too deep,
they had no idea what to do. And Shane Waldron did a great job of attacking the Colts last week with ebra Flus as a classic two deep team, and they absolutely shredded them deep. Will that carry over into next week? I think it's possible. I think that the whole offseason the Hawks were a team that were getting absolutely no love when all they do every single year is go out and get double digit wins. Russell Wilson
is perennially a top five quarterback. Lockett and dk metcalf are to one of the best receiver cors in the league. And what Pete's done his whole tenure and in Seattle is take mid round players with zero pedigree and put together a pretty good defense. So I like the spot. It worries me a little bit when I start digging into the actual teams, because I'm a little bit down
on the Titans. But You're absolutely right. One of the things you want to be doing in the NFL is betting on the team that looked the worst last week, and the Tennessee Titans were certainly one of those things. Just regrets to the mean, these teams are just too talented. I'm sorry, no, no, I was just wrapping up.
Yeah, I think, and again, Seattle generally has looked, you know, good early on here, and I get like last year and I get like their offense looked really good. I just this is a bounce back spot for the Titans. Man, Like, I cannot imagine that they come out as nearly as flas they did. They were embarrassed by that game, like for sure, like they need to come here and show something, and I just I kind of trust that they will.
But yeah, this is what it is. This is this is a hold your nose week, man, like we're talking about it. So do you have a hold your nose third pick here for your third best bat?
Not really. I know a lot of people like to bet the over in some of these games, and with the record being broken last week with fourth down attempts, maybe this season will be in overseason. But I'm circling the under forty seven and a half in this Texans
Browns game on Sunday. It's one of those where if you agree with me, you're gonna want to go out there and get it now because forty seven is a key number and the Cleveland Browns have a couple of injuries that the Thursday practice report, which we haven't seen yet, could dictate a line move in this spot. Three starting
offensive linemen on the Browns did not practice yesterday. Jedrick Willis was carted off on Sunday against the Chiefs that left tackle and his replacement in that game also got hurt. So there's a chance that the JC Treader and Jack Conklin dnps on Wednesday were just veterans rest Those things
tend to happen. But we'll get more information here on Thursday, and if they are dnps on Thursday, I could certainly see this line starting to come down, because in order for the Browns to cover a number as big as this, and in order for them to get to the over, it's going to be the Browns that are scoring in
this game and putting points on the board. And with a broken offensive line, a team that does want to run the ball, that has invested as on at the running back position is going to be a little bit hamstrung to do so. But if you wait for the news, then the line's going to start moving. So it's one of those where you almost have to be a little bit aggressive and get to it before the market starts changing.
The Texans last week, playing at at home against the Jaguars, allowed the fifth highest pressure rate in the entire league. The Jaguars do not have a stout defensive line what and they didn't send a ton of pressure. I mean, their blitz rate was thirty two point four, so top third, but nothing like the you know, the fifty percent that we saw from the Dolphins and fifty percent we traditionally see from the Ravens that we saw a ton of
on Monday night against the Raiders there. Now they travel on the road, they have to block Miles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney and tack McKinley and Malik Jackson. That's not gonna be an easy assignment. So I think the Texans are going to strugle to score. And if the Browns have these offensive line issues and can't get their offense going as well, I think we'll see a little bit
of a controlled rock fight. I think the Browns will be just fine, But I think that the under is definitely in play, and if you're super brave, I think taking the points with Houston might be in play as well.
This is interesting, Okay, So if that, what if the practice reports are positive, I mean, Wills isn't gonna play. I mean, I think we can assume that. But what if the practice reports are positive on the offensive line? And are you still good with it? I mean, I assume in forty seven and a half, you just think that it might drop if it's bad, right, Yeah.
If it's bad. I think this line gets to the key number and Nobe even gets a little bit down from that, but I don't think it'll ever touch the other key of forty four. I mean, that's a precipitous drop, right, but I could certainly see it coming off this forty seven and a half. I think I'm still comfortable with it. It's I think it's fifty to fifty that Tretder and conkline.
We're just getting veterans rest. But the fact that the Browns might be on their third string left tackle is certainly not a good thing.
All right, I don't I don't have a good feel. I'm trying to remember what my we on Monday. We do like an opening reactions line. You know what is our opening reaction to the line? I don't remember what my life I feel like. I like the over, but I don't really have a good feel for right now. You know, I can see I think the Browns are gonna run all day long, which is obviously generally speaking good for the under, but I don't have a good sense of it. It's actually it's funny because it's it's
sixty five percent of the people picking on Bettingbros. Dot Com are on the over right now, so you're in the minority here, which I know you're fine with, right. I love being the one, all right, I'm going to go. I'm trying to see whether or not I'm in the minority or the majority on this one. And it's no big I'm just gonna scroll and waste time. Okay, Yeah, I'm in the minority big time on this one. And it is the Dolphins getting three and a half against
the Bills. Seventy nine percent of our experts here are taking the Bills, only twenty one percent taking the Dolphins. I am one of those twenty one percent. This is not an overly analytical analysis for this one. And this is not a you know, it's sort of the opposite, right, like the Bill's lost and the Dolphins one, and so you know, blah blah blah. But the bottom line is this. It's a divisional matchup. It's between two really good teams.
And I think if you are giving over a field goal in a game like this, I'm just gonna take the hook. They're in Florida, right That is just very especially right now in the summer, Like we know this, We've seen it with Tom Brady or whatever. It's sort of difficult for road teams to acclimate to that, especially when it's really really hot. I think the Bills played okay against the Steelers, Steelers have a great defense, but I did think that they showed some cracks a little bit.
You know, their offensive line wasn't really great. It wasn't really that great, you know, necessarily last year and now last week they met in this exact same spot in Miami in Week two it was thirty one twenty eight. I can see sort of something. It's different obviously because Fitz was there. But I do think that this is going to be a close game. I think the Dolphins
obviously have a very very solid and underrated defense. I think zaviy I'm very excited to see Zavian Howard matchup against Von Diggs, which I expect in this game, which we saw at the end of last year. He did a decent job of keeping him under control. But this is something where I think it might take a little while for the Bills kind of to round back into
form here. And I think the Dolphins, as much as they didn't look explosive as much as we wanted to to sort of all right, throw into coverage, like be a more of a gun singer, and he wasn't, I think they can survive like that. I think this game might be a little lower scoring than people expect Will Fuller should be back, although I saw that he missed practice today for an undisclosed reason. If he's out, that
might color the way I feel about it. But I think that Fuller does add another dimension to this offense. DeVante Parker looked great last week as well. Miles Gaskin is very solid. Jaalen Waddell had a very nice opening game. To me, again, it's not overly analytical. It's just a divisional matchup between two teams that are very solid and know each other really well. It strikes me as much more of a field goal, so I would take the
hook either way. But I'm wondering because are so many people are on the Bills whether or not you feel the same.
So if we look at home field advantage again being one point nine, that says that the Bills would be minus seven and a half in the spot against the Dolphins a week after being minus six and a half against the Steelers. So what the market is telling us is that they believe in this spot that the gap between the Bills and the Dolphins is one point higher than the gap between the Bills and the Steelers. I
don't know if that's true. Last week. The Bill Steelers game was absolutely fascinating because the Steelers blitzed on one play, I know, one play. That being said, not every team has a TJ. Watt and the Melvin Ingram and the horses up front to just send four and be comfortable dropping seven back in coverage, which was a headache for Josh Allen. Josh Allen eats against blitzes, he eats against man coverage. The Dolphins blitz at a fifty percent rate
last week against the Patriots. Are they going to do the same this week? Is Brian Flores going to try to send pressure? If he does, I think the Bills are certainly going to look more like the twenty twenty Bills than they did in Week one. But this is I mean, this line to me is just razor sharp. I could see the Bills getting back to their old ways, scoring, pushing edges, getting the ball downfield, and then what does two A do in negative script? That's the biggest issue
for the Dolphins this season. They have very defined RPO style offense. Easy throws, easy decisions for Tua. What happens when he's down you know a touchdown plus and he's throwing you know four verts and making decisions that last year he was very conservative in doing so. So I'm going to be a bystander for this game. I think it's going to be a very fun game between two good teams, and I'll let you be brave in the spot and click the dog.
It's gonna be such an ugly week for us, my friend, and not that we're gonna lose. I just mean we're gonna be rooting for such, you know, such terrible underdogs here. Okay, so you are taking Let's just recap very quickly. At the end, Panther is getting three and a half from the Saints, the Jaguars getting six from the Broncos, and the Texans, and the Browns going under forty seven and
a half total points. I am taking the Vikings getting three and a half from the Cardinals, the Titans getting five and a half from the Seahawks, and the Dolphins getting three and a half from Bill's Man. Somebody who's listening to this podcast for the first time, they're like, these guys some intestinal fortitude. Okay, how about let's run through very quickly the rest of the game. We talked about the over runner. Obviously on the Browns and Texans.
But what do you think about the fact that the Browns are laying twelve and a half points here doesn't matter with you what happens with the offensive lineman or what.
Yeah, I think So what's interesting is the look ahead was thirteen, So the Texans got some respect for the fact that they went out and won the game out right last week. Granted it's a half point of respect,
not towards or off of a key number. But if those two players in Treder and Conklin are dnps today, yeah, I'm definitely leaning the points in the spot, thinking that it's going to be a low scoring affair, that Tyrod Taylor, the veteran that he is, can navigate the Texans to a non blowout in Cleveland.
Yeah, I'm betting for It's pretty split. Fifty six percent or taking the Browns, forty four percent are taking the Texans. I don't think I've made a pick yet on this game. I'm not sure how I feel about it. If I do, you know, dabble, it'll probably be the last minute. But I don't have a great feel for it, so it's a stay away from me. How about the Bears laying two and a half at home against the Bengals, and I think it was three when I looked at it earlier in the week, so it must have dropped half
a point. What do you think here about two and a half?
Yeah, a lot of shop money came in on the Bengals earlier in the week. I've actually seen this as low as one at some books. I think you have to just take the Bears sub a field goal. Yeah, I believe the look ahead in this spot was above a field goal. If I'm not correct, let me just pull it up here. Ye, look ahead was four and a half. So that's a very large move too, and through a key number. Again, it is influential money that's
making this move. But we're buying the Bengals off of a massive underdog win, and we're selling the Bears against losing against potentially the best team in the NFC. I'm very bullish on the Los Angeles Rams. I think the addition of Stafford is massive to McVeigh. More importantly, I think what the Rams have done on defense the last two years is something that is going to become more
prevalent and more understood. The athletic had a tremendous article about Brandon Staley and what he's done with the two deep defense and how he's adapted it to almost be basically the how McVeigh uses eleven on offense. You show one luck and you can do multiple things out of it. The way that Brandon Staley is treating two deep coverage on defense is something that I think is going to take the league by storm. And I think the Rams have a massive edge on defense, and the Chargers do
now as well with Stalely as head coach. So I'm not going to fault the Bears for getting blasted out of the water from a Rams team that was opening up a brand new stadium in prime time. So yeah, I just think short of a field goal, you have to take the Bears.
In the spot. I agree with you. I agree with you here. I mean, I really do think now that it's dropped under a field goal, like the Bears at home, their defense is still strong. I mean, and Galton didn't you know, I didn't push the ball down the field, but didn't play that poorly against a very very tough defense. Dave Montgomery looked great. Yeah, and you know you got the Bengals played well. I was impressed with Jamar Chase.
Certainly in the opening game, I was impressed with Burrow, but even Burrow has been complaining a little bit about how sore his knee is like after that, which is just natural. I think I agree with you. Now that's under a field goal, I would lean the Bears. How about the Eagles, which were again earlier in the week getting three and a half. They're now just getting three from the forty nine ers in Philadelphia.
So one of my twenty twenty one goals is to be a little less stubborn, at least try to be a little less stubborn. And I came into the season with very very negative connotations towards the Philadelphia Eagles. Maybe the Nick Sirianni press conference colored my analysis a little bit too much. Certainly Jalen Hurts' inability to play the quarterback position last year colored my analysis. But I have to give them so much credit for what they did last week. They gave Jalen Hurts as many easy throws
as possible and a dodd of three point seven. Let's not make him diagnose the field go through multiple reads. Let's get these very fast, skilled position players the ball at the line skirmage and let Jalen Hurs play some Reid option. They got Kenneth Gainwell involved early. You know, a lot of teams would just trot Boston Scott out the veteran, give him those passing down touches. They took the kid and they said, you know what, we think he's talented. We saw a lot of him in training camp.
He got thirty three percent of the snaps. So maybe Sirianni's a little sharper than I gave him credit for. And if that's the case, with Philadelphia being so stout on both offensive and defensive line and some of these injuries for the Niners, Eric Armstead, Drake Greenlaw, Javon Kinlaw all DNPS yesterday, this line might be a little bit too rich. I'm very bullsh on the Niners. I think
the Niners are going to have a tremendous season. Yeah massive, Kyle Shanahan, Stan, But you know, this might just be a little bit too rich for a West Coast team. Travelings.
I liked it at three and a half. At three, I'm just I'm staying away. I look, I was somebody who you know, you know I do fantasy, obviously, I do fantasy projections as well. But I was big unhurt this whole year, and I was sort of like, well, worst case scenario, it's going to be his legs and he'll be fine. But I was hoping that what we would see is that you have an entire off season,
Deshaun Watson, rumors be damned. You have an entire off season to devote yourself to creating an offense that revolves around Jalen Hurts. The skill set that is exactly what they did. And their offensive line played really well. Their defensive line as solid as we know. So I think the Eagles there's a lot of reason to be optimistic with that said, I don't know yet. I need, you know, beating up on an Atlanta team that just looked terrible.
You know, I need to see it again here against the forty nine ers, which is why I'm staying away. But I would take it at three and a half. You can find it out there. I know that it's still lingering out there at some books. I would take that at three. I think it's a stay away. But I misspoke there.
Sorry. The Niners did of course, Shannon had did the smart thing they see. They stayed East after the Detroit game last week, so no long road trip.
It's still though, I mean, it still is, like I know they do that living in It's still a big deal if you stay out east like I realized, Like okay, good, but really it's still a big, a big move. This one's interesting. It's not surprising to me that the betting experts have made the picks that way they have. The Rams are visiting the Colts. The Rams are currently three and a half point favorites. Ninety percent of the picks
coming in on the Rams. Are you with them as a buyer of Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford?
Ah, this is tough, yep, could because a lot of the stuff we just talked about was overreaction correct. How do we take advantage of that in week two? And naturally you would want to take the Colts and the points in this spot, But I don't know if I can do it. I think I just and that doesn't mean I'm going to click the Rams in the spot. It just thinks I'm going to stay on the sideline for this game. But what this line is saying is that the Rams are a point better than the Seahawks.
Which you know is probably right. So this is probably a fair line. And yeah, I think I think if you like the Colts, you're believing in Aberflus coming out and playing great defense, right the Colts not. Their biggest trend in the last couple of years was to play a very strong, two deep defense, keep everything in front of you. I'll never forget they went to Arrowhead two
years ago. They were ten point dogs. They went in on a Sunday night, beat them out right because they didn't give Tyreek or any of these chiefs weapons the opportunity to get down the field, kept everything in front of them and were able to win a little bit of a rock fight. And that's the Colts calling card. If they can do that. The Rams don't have a great running game, they don't really have a great run blocking offensive line. They can make this game a little ugly.
But you know, if the Rams can mimic what their former coach did last week and attack these guys deep, then they're gonna have some success. So I can see a lot of outcomes here. I'm just gonna stay on the sideline.
This is a git. We see so much the same way, which is I think like realistically, you look at and you're like, well, everything says you probably should take the Colts in this game, just for the very reasons that you and I have talked about nonstuff, and yet we want to take the Rams because we both are buyers on the Rams and things they looked incredible, and yet neither one of us can really pull that trigger either way.
So I I'm going to stand inside. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Rams win by a touchdown, but it's something where I'm going to stay away from. How about the Steelers at home Link six against the Raiders on the short week.
TRYE traditionally a terrible stot spot for the Raiders short week west to East. This Raiders offensive line is bad and they still have Ritchie and Cognitio on the injury report. Now they have to go block the Pittsburgh Steelers, who, unlike the Ravens, don't have to send pressure because just like they did against the Bills, they can generate a pass rush with four Minka Fitzpatrick is one of the few players in the league where you can put him on Darren Waller, and I don't think anybody can stop
Darren Waller. Those crossers are absolutely lethal, probably unguardable. But the job that Fitzpatrick did last week against Cole Beasley, and you might scoff off, you know, Cole Beasley slock guy. But Cole is very slippery in the slot and a great route runner, and Fitzpatrick did a hell of a job on him. So He's going to be able to at least anoy Waller in this game and force car
and the Raiders offense to go elsewhere. Six is pretty rich, though, five and a half now I'm seeing five in some spots. So do we trust the Pittsburgh defense to keep this super low? Yes? But do we trust Big Ben and that arm and the prayers that he tends to throw at Deantay Johnson and Chase Claypool to establish a lead and extend the lead? I don't think so. So gun to my head, I think I'm taking the points and hoping that Derek Carr can can generate some offense against this tremendous pass rush.
Yeah, this is pretty split down the middle, fifty three percent on the Raiders forty seven percent of the Steelers. I am taking neither for sure. This is a classic Tomlin like letdown spot. Like you got to be an underdog, you gotta be on the road. Nobody believes that's for Mike Tomlin. When you're a favorite by nearly a touchdown at home, with everything being like, ah, you should win this man, you'll be all right, it's like, nah, run away.
So but I can bring myself to take the Raiders here for the you mentioned, it's just very top on this short week. It's not like a good match in terms of the ability of the Steelers to get pressure without bringing the blitz. So just to stay away from me. But I guess gun to my head, like you said, I would be on the Raiders. But thankfully there is no gun to my head. So let's go onto the
Patriots visiting our jets. The spread has climbed to six Jets getting six eighty two percent of the people taking the Patriots, eighteen percent taking the Jets.
What do you think, Congratulations if you grab the Patriots ticket Sunday night Monday morning, Very good job by you, because yes, this has steamed in the direction of the Patriots. I don't know how high it has to get for me to take the Jets. I don't think it's high enough. But I don't think I'm taking Mac Jones on the road at this number either. I did really like the three and a half. I thought that was a pretty good selection. The big issue is just this Jets offensive
line with becked and out. I mean, what is Matthew Judon going to do to this offensive line? Zach Wilson is gonna have pressure in his face the entire game. Bill Belichick feasts on rookie quarterbacks do so. I think Sala will do a decent job against a rookie quarterback in his own, but he just doesn't have the horses that Belichick has. I mean, you go out and you sign LaMarcus Joyner. He plays nine snaps. I mean Karl Lawson plays zero snaps. And now you've just got Bryce
Hall and a cast of misfits back cornerback. So tough spot. I don't think it's high enough to take the Jets. So I guess I'm leaning Patriots. But yeah, this is gonna be an ugly affair amount life.
Yeah, staying away at six points too much like that. That's the bottom line. Like the Patriots should win this game. It should probably it should not be threatened, but six points is too much for mac Jones on the rock just interest is like, there's just no way, and you're right, you got it early. That's great, but right now I can't hopefully, you know, the floor designs something to get around the fact that their offensive line is you and me basically playing at this point, which is crazy with
how much they've invested into this offensive line. But it's going to be bad. So but I'm saying away again just because it can't go with mac Jones lay in six. How about another big spread here, A couple of big spreads this week. Bucks playing twelve and a half to the Falcons at home.
Is Arthur Smith a fraud?
I don't think we're not ready to call that after a game. It didn't look good that first game, but you.
Know, they were so unprepared. They ran the ball so frequently on first down despite having such little success up front, getting pushed and trailing. That was puzzling. Everything that I saw out of the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday was absolutely puzzling. Matt Ryan is not somebody who could get back there and move around. There were assignments blown up front by the offensive line. This is a terrifying spot for a Bucks team. That has extra rest and the defensive strength
up front that we saw. You know, the Cowboys have a really good defensive offensive line. For sure, they were missing Zach Martine, but you know they're a solid outfit, and the Bucks were still getting pressure in that spot. So I can only imagine what's going to happen when the Bucks defense starts eating against this Atlanta offensive line. And what is this Atlanta defense going to do against Tom Brady in this Bucks offense. So I think the move look ahead with eight moves to twelve, I think
the move is justified. And I mean I could see the Bucks winning this game by a very very healthy amount. I'm very concerned with Arthur Smith as the coach of the Falcons.
Guns. In my head, it's the Bucks in this one. But I also can't lay twelve and a half at this point like I can't, because that to me strikes me as a You look at the Falcons. The Falcons looked like they were the worst team in the league in that game. They looked terrible, they looked terribly coached, they didn't have the personnel. I'm not ready to say that's exactly what we're going to see. Your rest of season,
just for the same reason we're talking about everything. But it looked horrific, and we do know that the Bucks are going to put up a ton of points because the Bucks had the exact same personnel that they had last year. They did it against the Cowboys, So I lean Bucks, But twelve and a half, I need to see it again. If they look like that again the Falcons, I'm fully running hard away and just whatever look aheadline I can get on against the Falcons I will take
now because it's just gonna climb. How about the Chargers, which are now laying three and a half at home against the Cowboys. This was three earlier in the week when I.
Looked big injuries for the Cowboys are at least one big injury with DeMarcus Lawrence and now this Lyle Collins suspension. You get back Zach Martin, but you lose your left tackle.
That's never a good thing. I think people are going to be enamored with the Cowboys and their offense and the stories coming out that Dak was a great decision maker, which he was on the Thursday opener audibling out of I think more than half of the run calls that kellenm Moore put out there, put the Cowboys into good spots, was throwing the ball all over the field, did a great job. But I don't know in this spot. I'm again very bullish on the Chargers, and I was surprised
last week so GridION Garible. We play in the Circus Sports million contests and the Washington football team was a top five popular pick last week, and that was puzzling to me. I just think the Chargers team is really good.
Herbert is already I think a top ten quarterback. He just stands in there on those third downs, makes really tough throws, throws outside the number he can make, and Lombardy is going to be able to put him in positions that Anthony Lynn didn't last year in scheming up a better offensive plan than with the former charge head coach was able to do. I don't love the line move again. This is another one where hey, if you got out Sunday night Monday morning, you grab the two,
you grab the two before this got two and above three. Congratulations. But I still think that if you were to make me select the side here, it would be the Chargers. Yeah, I think that. Yeah, I think the Dallas defense is that bad and that Brandon Staley will just be able to do enough to limit this awesome Cowboys offense.
And once again you are not on the side of the majority eighty two percent taking the Cowboys eighteen percent.
Which shows just how monumental that move is. Oh yeah, if eighty percent are on the Cowboys and the line goes from two to three and a.
Half, yeah, all right, let's go to the Chiefs visiting the Ravens Sunday night football. I believe the Ravens are now getting three and a half. There were three when I checked on Sunday night, I think before the or a Monday night before the Ravens game. So getting three and a half at home against Chiefs, what do you think?
I think the best spot here is actually the under. I think the last I saw was fifty five to fifty five and a half.
Yeah, the consensus right now is fifty four and a half.
I don't know that, Okay, So yeah, so it's coming down, So my inclinations are coming through there. I think John Harbaugh will be smart enough to know that the traditional style of blitzing and going ham and throwing the kitchen seek at Patrick Mahomes, it's just not going to work. So play a little bit back, play some too deep, keep things in front of you, keep the pace of the game slower. And we know on offense that Baltimore is not going to be throwing the ball all over
the pitch. They don't have the horses to do so. And Lamar Jackson's strength is certainly not throwing the ball. So I think we're going to see a lot of controlled pace running and even on defense, a little less aggressiveness from Baltimore. So I think the unders to play in this spot. I've just seen this so many times where I've wanted to take a good team getting points at home against the Chiefs and I've just ended up with egg on my face.
Yeah, oh yeah, I can't do it. I think that's spread probably a stay away from me. But it's a good point on the total, I mean, and I think that that's what the Ravens are going to want to, you know, do, in order to limit what Mahomes can do. Last one Packers at home Monday Night football, eleven point favorites, embarrassed by the Saints. What do you think?
I mean, who's playing corner for the Lions.
I don't want it. I know Kuda's out for the year, it's just it's bad.
The I think for the season, the Lions, like they showed last week, are going to be a team that doesn't tend to quit. Right when your head coach is the guy biting off kneecaps and taking baseball bat sessions. I don't think this is a team that's going to
be laying over. So I think there's going to be a lot of double digit spots for the Lions this season where they are the right side, the game is a lot closer, and just because they're like three to ten or whatever, everyone's still going to be clicking the other side while the Lions have like an above average ats spread. But this is not the spot. Rogers off a loss, completely embarrassed at home Lambeau night game. Yeah, you cannot find me clicking the Lions enough. One.
I'll take the Packers and yeah, there's a backdoor cover possibility. I don't care. I will own that. I think that this is just gonna be a really really, really really angry Packers team, and I think they will learn from what they saw last week, which in part was due to the fact that they had some injuries on defense with the forty nine ers, but in part was due to the fact that the Lions just you know, you're
able to dump it off to the running backs. I think they'll know, you know that there are no wide receivers that Dared Goff is going to try to throw to you. Blanket T J. Hockinson, you have, you know, you have guys waiting for those running backs out of the backfield. I think that they will hold on beyond the back door cover. So I do like the Packers here, I lean that way, But yeah, I fear for Detroit in that game. Let's very briefly recap what our actual
you know, our top six picks are. You're taking the Panthers getting three and a half again from the Saints. You were taking the Jaguars, you brave, Brave sould getting six from the Broncos, And you were taking the Texans and the branch under forty seven and a half. And I am taking the Vikings getting three and a half from the Cardinals, the Titans getting five and a half from the Seahawks, and the Dolphins getting three and a half from the Bills, all underdogs for us. For our
official picks for the over under I love it. This is the week, This is the week for the underdogs, for the bounce back, rich to or fantastic guests. I missed talking to you. It was good to catch up. Remind everybody where they can find you and your work.
Yeah, great to be here. Grid Iron Gamble, you can find it on any podcatter, Spotify, Stitcher, Apple. We do our weekly Circa Sports Million selections and then we recap those, and we actually do a good recap. Donnie Peters is a great recap of the Las Vegas contests as a whole. You know who the leaders are, who scored what points last week, So check that out.
How'd you do last week? Out of curiosity in the circa.
So we have two entries. We went two and three on both of them. We had Baltimore minus four to close out the week on Monday night. The fact that they were up two point two yards for play at halftime, which if you if you divide yards for play by point one five, you tend to get the amount of points that a team should be ahead. So they were projected to be ahead sixteen at that they were not.
They were not. Yeah that stinks, but two and three in one of those contests that doesn't bury you whatsoever.
Yeah, sure, early too, so.
Yeah, especially just avoid the big one and four, zero and five weeks should be fine, all right. Anyway, thank you so much for coming by. You guys know this by now. On Monday, we'll be back taking an early look at the lines, and later on we'll have the College Football which dropped yesterday college Football podcast breaking down each week. Then we follow up with our best bets here.
Thank you again, download listen anywhere you subscribe to podcasts, Apple Podcasts, cast box Ley Review as well, and we will talk to again in a couple of days.