Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast, brought to you by Bett MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. So last week the regular season is on tap and as the lines, as you might expect, are all over the place, but with me to break it all down is Ian Hartitz, NFL analysts for Rotal World. You can find them on Twitter at Iheartit's Ian. Thanks for coming on.
How's it going?
Thanks for having me on, Man, it's going good.
I was like Week seventeen, especially from just a DFS and gambling perspective, because you know, it's one of those weeks where if you really grind your research, you know, find out what teams are doing with their starters.
I can get more of an edge of normal. So we'll see what we can do.
Yeah, definitely more than any other week. I feel like sports betters need to be really really focused on the lines because when news comes out, the lines that we were just talking about before we started recording can shift in an instant. We've already seen it Monday, right, so the lines really just books mostly reopened on Sunday already We're seeing shifts of three, four or five points in some places, so you definitely want to be on it. And I don't know about you, you do a lot
of fantasy work. I do a lot of fantasy work. I really like this time of the year because like Week seventeen, you've still got dfs and everything like that. But with the playoffs, we can not only just enjoy football for what it is, but also focus on it from a more sports betting perspective and not from how many people are going to be mad at me for telling them that they could start Nick Chubble, you know what I mean.
That's what I do to, you know, focus on some of those individual match up, specially more when the playoffs come, and you know, we can really make ourselves go crazy. I remember last year in particular, it was like seemed like every single week I convince myself that this was when the Patriots were finally going down because of X, Y and Z.
But you know, sometimes that's just the way I cook the crumbles.
Yeah, well, well we'll be saying that again next year after they win another Super Bowl. This year, come on, dude, I am a Jets fan living in New England, so yeah, pretty much my nightmare.
All right, well, let's start, really, I mean, we.
Can talk about the Patriots, but let's start with the one game that every sports better. It's really just every football fan, frankly in America is really dying to see the Browns at the Bengals, brown playing two and a half with the total of forty five. I mean, you know, I really this is why there is sports betting, because otherwise there would be nobody outside of the state of Ohio watching this game. But the Browns, they put up
a fight against the Ravens in the beginning. You know, it looks like they might actually hold Lamar Jackson in check, especially since they won that first game. But really, in the end they are just no match. But then they're completely dysfunctional. The Bengals almost draw the inside straight against the Dolphins for that miraculous comeback, they can't make it happen. They are now as short of the top pick in the draft, so who knows where their head is at.
But how do you feel here anything? With the Browns lank two and a half and the total at forty five?
Real quick, how amazing was that Bengals Dolphins game?
Man?
Like you talk about someone of the best games ever between just two bad football teams.
Really really entertaining, and you had that one and the Giants in the Washington game, so it was really you know, you just had.
These terrible games that everybody was loving.
But yeah, yeah, I mean, by the way, I don't know what has changed, but all of a sudden, teams are able to recover onside kicks with no problem.
You know that.
I don't understand that nowhere At first half of the season, there was just because they changed the rules so you can't run up, you know anymore.
You've just got to be where you are. So they were way down and all of a sudden, it's just like, all.
Right, we need two on side kicks. Yeah we could do that, no problem. So yeah, it is weird, but you know, good to see. But again, I'm sure the Bengals are, you know, nice to see that they put in an effort and also glad to see that they locked up the number one pick.
For sure, for sure, And I think that's you know, just looking at this game, it's not a team has anything to play for. With that said, we've at least seen more glimpses from this Browns team, especially in the second half of the season, that they can be maybe for stretches, a good football team for the Bengals. I mean, look, they came back and they were able to make that
Dolphins game a pretty entertaining, contested contest. But with that said, I mean, the Brown's the only team in this game that has been at least confused with an Okay team for a little bit this season.
So I'm seeing the lines right now.
You know, Cleveland only minus two and a half and I think I'm I think, I'm I'm down to lay those points because offense is playing a little bit better overall, I think in the second half a season. Like I said, and the big issue for the Browns first time they played the Bengals was Obi Jaljic got locked up by William Jackson, who has done some shadow coverage in here in the last few weeks. So if he is out after suffering, I believe it was a short injury, but
I'm not positive. We'll see what injury reports say later in a week. But if William Jackson's out, like that's one of the last remaining two difference makers on that Bengals defense. So I think we could see the Browns and then more talented offense.
How successful.
Yeah, I like it under a field goal.
It opened at a field goal, so the fact that it's dropped underneath, I've already put a couple of units on them.
Yeah.
Look, I never feel good about backing the Browns, right, and it's not about their talent. I mean, you know again, we talked about it, you know, a lot during the season. They were by far the most bet Super Bowl winner and Mayfield by far the most bet MVP play. A lot of that is just public perception rather than whether or not it's justified. But they're not quite as bad of a team as they've seen. They're just really, really poorly coached. But in the end, it's just the talent
gaps between the two teams. At this point, when you're getting, you know, only being forced to give you know, less than a field goal, I'm all over that.
Now.
I feel dirty because you don't want to back the Browns in any shape or form, But at this point I agree with you. I think there is value on the Browns.
I think, real quick, I think we got this. We're not betting on the Browns, We're betting against the Bengals.
I love it.
That will definitely make me feel better when the Bengals recover an outside kick and win the game and the last second, all right, Chargers at the Chiefs, Chiefs laying seven and a half here, the total at forty six and a half. The Chiefs here, I mean, they do still have something to play for there at the two seat. If they win and the Pats lose to Miami. That is obviously not particularly likely, although you know, the Dolphins have a history of playing hard against the Patriots, mostly
in Miami. But realistically, the Chiefs still have something to play for here. The Chargers are just a complete disaster basically on both sides of the ball. They have not played up to as well as their talent. They dealt with a lot of injuries for much of the season. But still, you know, probably Philip Rivers Swansung, I guess there are probably going to be major changes coming into next year whichever way it goes. And the Chiefs meanwhile, I mean, they now look to be rolling. Mahomes looks
fully recovered from his knee injury. They look like they're peaking at the right time. So Chiefs at home here, still with a little something to play for maybe link seven and a half with the total of forty six and a half.
So I think as long as they have something to play for, like, that's enough for us. I mean, they're trying to slide in this number two seed. They're going to be playing Patrick Mahomes and Tyre kill and all the guys we care about until they're up by a good portion, which one of the spreads, you know, fairly modest. I think seven and a half, that's fine. That's all we need. It's not like we need them necessarily be
fighting for their playoff lives. Just to back up here, I'm fine with this level of a you know, playoff just what they're trying to accomplish, and especially against this Chargers team that I think maybe fooled some of us in Week fourteen.
When they just blew out the Jaguars.
I that this could still at least be a pretty good offense week to week because we have the skill position talents there. I mean, whether it be Ken Allen, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, their pair of running backs, everything's there. It just has not been a great year at all for Rivers. In fact, it's been a second War season of his career and QBR. I mean, the O line has been a problem. I don't want to put it all on Fill, but with that said, I mean, yeah, it just could soon be his last swan song, if
it's not already. I think in this spot, the Chiefs are clearly the better team. I think lost in a lot of this Ravens hype recently is that the Chiefs might have found themselves a defense man since the week twelve by you know, they've were able to beat the Pats in Foxborough and other than that, they just shut down everyone, only thirty one points total allowed in December.
I know we're used to Patrick Mahomes having an outscore everybody, and I think they're still capable of doing that, especially we've seen this offense finally get healthy in recent weeks, but the defense all of a sudden isn't quite the same pushover. So, like I was on a pop last week, man and I had to give a bold take for the rest of the way, and I think the Chiefs are going to kind of coast through the playoffs and
even take down Lamar Jackson and Coast. So I think this will definitely be a good first start to get that one.
I like it. That is bold, but I think there is one team that can do it.
It is then, because yeah, they are clicking on all cylinders, not just offensively but also defensively. Here. You know, obviously you're laying more than the touchdown. It's always a little nerve wracking. But in the end, we've seen Philip Rivers, you know, although the classic Philip Rivers is you know, he's got two minutes, he's down three, and that's the situation you find himself in every time. But realistically, at this point, I just whatever is going on with him?
It's been odd.
Not only of course is he playing terribly, but the approach has been so weird. It's like as soon as they get down, as soon as there's any time running on the clock, it's just like he's just chucking balls deep every time. It's like they have no idea how to run at this point a cohesive offense. So in terms of the back door cover, I'm not all that worried about it, and I feel okay here with this number at the Chiefs laying seven and a half, because I do think they're rolling. I think even if they
sort of probably realize that. You know, the Pats almost certainly are not going to lose to the Dolphins. They still want to go into the playoffs strong and on a high note and get in there. So I would be fine laying the seven and a half, and i'd probably you know, be okay with eight eight and a half. Once it gets past there, get a little nerve wracking, But I think they're going to be able to cover a big number.
In this one.
Let's move on to my Jets at the Buffalo Bills. Bills here are laying one with a total of thirty six. This spread is obviously influenced by the fact that the Bills have nothing to play for it. They're locked in at the number five seed after losing to the Patriots. They'll probably wind up playing the Texans in the playoffs. But you know, not one hundred percent set. But they're
really solid football team overall. But you have to think, I don't I haven't seen anything on it yet, but you have to assume they're gonna be resting the majority of their skilled players. Meanwhile, the Jets win against the Steelers, helped out mostly by their defense, which remains strong. They've been playing. You know, they're a competent football team at this point. They're not you know, world beaters or anything
like that, but they'll put up a game. Buffalo's a tough place to play, but again, not sure what to do here. I don't think that they've come out and said what they're gonna do with their starters. So Bill's laying won total thirty six.
Yeah, So they interviewed Sean McDermott earlier and he basically said they're not sure what they're gonna do yet. He's still gonna have conversations with the GM in the front office. I mean, to me, that just sounds like they're not going to play the starters at this point. I feel like, you know, you take a Bill O'Brien approach and say, you know, we're here to win right away. If that there's any kind of hesitation with it, to me, that
hints that they're gonna be resting as starters. But obviously a situation to watch throughout the week. The question just is how many starters, because I mean, if it's only Josh Allen and they're kind of you know, rolling out their first team defense again, that version of the Bills could easily still beat this Jets team at home, I.
Agree, dare you? How dare you?
I agree with you that they've looked better recently. They've won five of seven games, Like that's shocking to me. Now they've the wins I've come against Giants, Redskins, Raiders, Dolphins and you know Mason Rudolphin, Duck Hodge as the Steelers team.
So not the most impressive victories.
But what that said, man, Like, you know, you see them flash and the defense when they have Jamal Adams healthy out there, they can at least make some plays to slow down some offenses. I mean, I've touchdown Sam
Donald through this, Robbie Anderson last week. Just I mean, I didn't see Sam Donald without Adam Gaze for at least three years before I consider writing that guy off because he just makes a couple of throws every every week or so that it just makes you shake your head because he can he can make any throw on the field. But anyway, this spot, I think there's just too much uncertainty right now. I'm staying away at the moment.
I think the Jets should win, but just kind of based on what we've seen from them, Buffalo being at home and uncertainty around what starters could be out. I'm probably just gonna stay away from this one.
Yeah, I can totally see that. And you know, the the most jetsy in thing to do would be to go up against all backups and get blown out by exactly right. But you know the one thing about the Bills is I assume Josh Allen's not gonna play. I mean, they've played a couple of tough games. You know, they played the Ravens and they played the Patriots. You know, some tough games where they're getting beat up. It makes sense for them to rest here. But Matt Barkley is
not like a pushover. You know, he played all right when he was in there early this season. Ye, right, so he can definitely move the ball. Depending but again it depends are you gonna take out John Brown and coleb Easley, Like where are we going to be left with? I think I'd probably lean towards the Jets. I think this is the type of thing that they do to hurt their draft position, and they win these sides of games, but it's not anything I'm overly excited about, especially with
the uncertainty. And regardless, Buffalo is a really really difficult place to play, especially at this time of year. The fans are insane because this is really all they have going on, this and the Sabers, and they're going to be out there no matter who is under center, and they're gonna it's gonna be could.
So I'm the thinly veiled Afots.
You got well to be fair man. I went to school in Buffalo, all right, I've been there. I know how it is. It's crazy, but yeah, again, a divisional game like this, whatever. But I do think that the Jets, as of right now, I have a little bit on the Jets. Right now, I'm assuming they're gonna rest pretty significantly most of their starters. But either way, that doesn't guarantee victory. Uh, you know for sure. But in the end,
it's something to wait and see. But I think I'd be willing to risk it a little bit on the Jets because I do think that they'll probably find a way to pull this one out. Let's move on here to the Saints. At the Panther, Saints laying thirteen and the total at forty seven and a half, so a lot up in the air here for the Saints. I think they could finish anywhere from the number one seed to the number three seat, so they're gonna want to win here. They continue to play well despite being hit
hard by injuries, with their run defense in particular. Meanwhile, the Panthers are just terrible right now. They're probably going to be down DJ Moore, who left last week early on with a concussion. Will Greer is getting another start. That does not bode well for their offense. It's going to be all about whether they can get Christian McCaffrey enough total yards for him to go down in history. So Saints laying a big number on the road here thirteen with the total at forty seven and a half.
I was about to say, the only number we'd know is that McCaffrey's sixty seven receiving yards to get to that one K one K club.
You know.
That's so they could be forcing to do. I mean they've already started it these last two weeks. I mean, fifteen targets for Christian McCaffrey last week, that's just absurd.
I mean he got all of them though, Man, he got all of them.
Hey man, it's the fact that McCaffrey has done what he's done this year with a mix of a hurt Cam Newton, Kyle Allen now Will Greer at quarterback is just absolutely insane. I just imagine what this guy could do in an offense where maybe, you know, all eleven guys weren't keen up to stop him every play. But no, I don't think nothing in this offense over the past like two months has told me that this Panthers team is really capable of putting together a complete effort.
They look competitive at times.
I mean, they still even though their run defense is just easily the worst in the league any metric you want to look at, like James Bradberry, Ross Ke Cockrells when making some plays lately. They have some talent in that secondary, but they just cannot stop anyone on the ground. I mean, it's like the Panthers and the Jaguars. If you want to make money in DFS, you just play
whatever running backs are going against those guys. I mean, they've allowed twenty nine rushing dutchtownds this year, the Jaguars and the only other team even over twenty. It's just not even close. Shaq Thompson's banged up. It's not all those guys' fault, but they haven't been able to stop anyone. And again, you know, like we're talking about with the Chiefs, if there's any sort of motivation, that's enough for me.
So I think the Saints probably roll here.
Thirteen's a lot like I probably wouldn't put a ton now on this, but with that set, man, they're a better team. They just beat the Titans by ten in a game that they you know, kind of took the first half off, and I think, you know, we would never confuse the Titans with this Panthers team in terms of who's better.
So I do like Saints minus thirteen.
Yeah, I am probably going to stay away from this game, but I agree if there is a side, it has to be the Saints.
I just can't take that many points, man.
I mean these games right where there's only one other game with a spread like that right now, it's the Dolphins Pats, and I certainly have some thoughts on that one. This one it's just a game where I can't I'm watching Will Greer was painful against the Cults, so I can't imagine him keeping this game close. But thirteen points. It's one of these things where I look at them like the value is probably on the Panthers. There's no
way I could back the Panthers on this game. If forced to go one way, I would probably go the Saints, but it's probably more of a stay away from me. Let's move on to the Bears and the Vikings. Vikings laying seven with the total at forty one and a half. We're recording this before Monday Night football, so we don't know what's gonna happen to night between the Vikings and the Packers. But even if the Vikings win, they need the Packers to lose next week to the Lions to
even have a shot at the division. That's probably not gonna happen. So they're already heavily injured at running back. Dalvin Cook is not gonna play tonight. Probably Alexander Madison is not gonna play tonight. It's probably a good bet that they'll rest some starters here, unless you know, if they win tonight and they have that out, then you know they'll they'll play their starters, I'm sure. But you know, if they do lose tonight, it's a good chance that
they're gonna rest everybody just to get healthy to the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Bears remain decent defensively, but I will generously say that they are inconsistent offensively. It's been mostly a lost season for them.
Mis Trubisky has certainly disappointed, you know, especially our good friend Mike Tegler. So what do you think here?
I mean, obviously a little difficult to analyze this one, not knowing exactly what they're going to be rolling out there, but Vikings laying seven with the total forty one and a.
Half, I do agree the Vikings do seem like a team where if they don't have anything to play for them and they're not going to put their guys in harm's way. We've seen them in the past with injuries and things, use limited snaps and really kind of be cognizant of what their situation is. So especially you know, Dalvin Cook and No potentially out of dealing these guys that are clearly not a one hundred percent I could definitely see them hitting the bench more often.
Man, this bears offense.
It really seemed like they were starting to gel and I know the matchups were nothing, which is why we got to be careful, you know when really evaluating good three game stretches. But played really well against the Giants, Lions, and especially Cowboys. Theybe just get these back to back duds against the Packers and Chiefs. There are impossible, trust men. I mean, I'm with you. It's like I want to take the Bears plus seven. I still think their defense
is very solid. The biggest problem with the defense, they've had some injuries, like Keem Hicks most notably, although he's been backed the last few weeks.
But their defense isn't the problem.
The problem is the offense can't keep their defense off the field for even a little bit. And like obviously they're not scoring points either. So unless the defense once you know, find a way to put points up on their own. It's been a struggle all year. So if anything, Bears plus seven, because you know, I do think the Vikings are gonna be trending towards resting stars.
That happens and we'll go see a line sync.
But you know, kind of like you're saying you don't want to bound the Panthers, I don't want to bet on this Bears team, so I'm probably gonna be staying away.
Look, man, I don't know what you're talking about. If you heard Chris Collinsworth last night. He basically was like, Missy is as good as Patrick Mahomes, So I don't know more weapons, man, right, that's Alan Rotport. You know, if only had somebody better than Alan Robinson, you know, it would be like the eighth best receiver on the Chiefs or whatever.
I saw them do like a side It wasn't a side by side, but they're like showing a Mahomes throw and then Chubisky throw after, like yeah should It's like, no, these are not even comparable. Mahomes is making like three dudes, miss and Tubisky's rolling out of a clean pocket. It's so annoying we get these comparisons, but hey man, it is what it is. Trying to make some money on it.
I mean, look, he's just trying to make people want to watch a game that was over after the first quarter over there. So look, first of all, I love Alan Robinson is one of my favorite receivers, so I'm really disappointed that he has had to play pretty much his entire career with terrible quarterbacks. And I feel bad for the Bears defense, which you just know, right as soon as like they give up a score or something they got, they're like, well this game's over.
We have nothing we can do.
So but with that said, for me, I'm gonna watch this game closely tonight. If the Vikings lose, I feel very confident that they're going to rest everybody going and you know, they's it's a winnable and they're a great team. It's a winnable NFC. A lot of the teams are good, but they can beat any one of those teams. They're a really really solid team. I think they're gonna rest guys.
If so, I'm gonna take the plunge and go for the Bears at seven before the line drops, because I do think that again, you mentioned it there, they can look competent offensively at times, right they They certainly can in some of it was matchup based, but you know, I really think they can. And you know, the Vikings are really beatable against the past, especially if they rest you know, their starters offensively. I think the defense can
at least go out in a high notes. So if they lose, If they lose tonight and they're locked into the wild card spot, they've got nothing to play for next week. I'm just gonna pound the Bears.
Getting the seventh I'd bust say, I feel so much better about backing the Bears with like the one like like you said, the one weakness in this Vikings team is their secondary and specifically their cornerback group, and that just so happens to be like we have to now trust Mitch Schubisky to exploit that, so.
Defensive, I feel so much better.
That's funny, because I would feel not at all better trusting David Montgomery behind that line.
You know what, That's a very good point all the way through.
I'd rather trust that Robinson and Anthony Miller and everything like that. But anyway, let let's see what happens tonight. Then that'll really color how we feel about the game. Let's move on here to the Falcons at the Bucks. Bucks here are laying one with a total at forty nine and a half. Falcons finishing strong here, Julio Jones needs about one hundred yards to finish with his sixth
consecutive season of at least fourteen hundred yards receiving. The defense is playing much better over the second half of the season. But you know what, the Bucks defense playing a little bit better too. They've been you know, everybody's been talking about how weak their pass defense is for most of the season. It's but a little better as
we've gotten here to the end. James Winston's going to turn the ball over three times in this game, but he'll also complete passes to Justin Watson and Britshad Perriman and the tight ends. HOWE do you feel here about the Bucks laying one with a total forty nine and a half.
You know, I'm looking at that total and I'm agreeing with everything you just said about the defenses. I under could be the play here, and it's just if through getting the full versions about these offenses, sure, I think they would be good enough to put up points on each other.
But Julio has done his thing lately.
But like, the reason the Falcons be able to run the ball at all this year is because they've gotten games against the Jaguars and Panthers.
Like, that's it again, you can run those teams.
Devonte Freeman really, you know, looking like kind of an older Marion Barber for the rest of the season unless he's been playing one of the least worst rush defenses.
And then Buccaneers.
I mean, Trudeo's to jamis for getting for Shaan Perriman over one hundred yards last week, and he still made that game competitive. But you know, four picks, I think we kind of saw what this offense is like. When you take away the top two wide receivers are just so just so happened to also be two the leagues more talented wide receivers and just at the position in general.
So I mean nothing on Jamis.
Yeah, obviously he needs to clear up the turnovers a little bit, but like expecting him to produce without Goblin without Evans is just kind of asking a lot. They haven't been to run the ball all season. The Falcons have been playing better on defense since their bye week, and they've been a pretty average so above average team in general over the last month month and a half. So I'm not quite sure who wins this game. But yeah, under forty nine and a half is my play.
Yeah, I love it, And the total is trending down. It opened at fifteen and a half, so I think the sharp betterers are probably with you and it might continue to turn down, So if you like it, get involved with it now. I agree with you on the total. If forced to go one side or another, I'd probably go to the Falcons, just because again he's so decimated. Man, I mean, losing the big two at wide receiver is
really tough. Breshad Perriman played great, and you know Justin Watson was involved, but I just I don't think in the end they're gonna be able to pull this one out.
But I don't have a strong feeling about it.
I agree with you completely that the under is the play, and I think that if you do like the under, you should get it now because I think it's going to continue to trend down. Before we move on, I want to tell everybody about the sponsor of today's show, bet MGM, and specifically the bet MGM Sports App. With the BETMGM Sports App, you can place a bet right.
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have locked up the division. They need to win to ensure that they've got the buy, which they desperately need. They don't look particularly good right now. I mean still defensively they're strong, but offensively it's been a struggle for pretty much the whole year. But no one is going to want to play them in the playoffs just because they're the Patriots.
The Dolphins fight and they fight hard.
They're not going to get the topic in the draft, but you know, if this magic is going to always try to keep them in there. So it's a big number here, Patriots laying sixteen with a total forty five and a half.
So the one thing that really sticks out to me, I have seen, you know, fitzpatrick AND's offense be entertaining, specifically downfield to Devonte Parker and Mike Jasickie. But the one thing that hasn't changed was Dolphins team all season. Just how atrocious their defenses. I mean, in their last six games they've allowed thirty seven, forty one, thirty one,
twenty two, thirty six and thirty five points. I mean, you cannot ask for a better just get right spot for the Patriots before the playoffs, and then they've had the best schedule layout all season long, so why stop now? But the Dolphins aren't playing better on offense like I said, they got shut out by the Patriots forty three and
nothing back when they played in Week two. I think we could both agree that was kind of a different Dolphins team and also clearly a different Patriots team since Antonio Brown was suiting.
Up in that week.
So I'm I'm seeing forty five and a half as the over right now, but on some other books it's been a little bit lower.
If it's underneath forty four. I kind of like the over here.
I just think that the Dolphins can't stop anyone and Fitzpatrick, I mean, the guy's going to be slinging it out there, and I think he can maybe do enough to give him the end zone once or twice, and at that point that's all we need.
Yeah, I think because of that kind of like the taking the points here with the Dolphins. I mean, I get it, they're not gonna win the game, they're not gonna keep it close, but there's so many opportunities here for a backdoor cover, right because fitz is just gonna keep going he I mean, you know, you worry a little bit about Gilmour taking away Parker, which he's able to do, and they're not really gonna be able to
run the ball. I mean, even Miles Gaskin is gonna be out for this game, I'm sure, so it's gonna be Patrick laired, so they really can't do anything there.
But I think there's gonna.
Be enough there to probably get Sixteen's just I mean before this season, numbers like this did not exist. Just as a matter of course. Right now, all of a sudden, you're like, oh, what's the spread up seventeen? Great, maybe we'll take that. There's just for me, there's too much value here with the Dolphins and the pageot. They're just not that good offensively. Like, even with how bad the Dolphins are defensively, I don't think they're gonna be able to put up like a forty spot on this team
and just sort of win going. I mean, all you got to do for the Dolphins to be able to cover this number is like to put up i don't know, put up fourteen points or something, score two touchdowns, and I think they'll be able to. So for me, I'm looking more at the spread here at sixteen.
It's just it's too much.
It's too much, yeah, me, And one thing I would add, like, yeah, it's not looking good for Devonte Parker this matchup. But the one guy I mean I was rewatching that Bengals and Dolphins gamer each today, well, I think I had stood out in that Dolphins offense was Albert Wilson. He had a lot of hype going in the season, but was really dealing with the calf injury for most of
the year, and he really has explosive this back. And you know, just watching what Cole Beasley did that Patriots secondary with Jonathan Jones out last week with that groin injury, we was gonna do some damage out there. That there's holes in the Patriots defense.
That's why.
I mean, yeah, I could see them covering that sixteen points, and I could also see both teams getting over that you know, forty three, forty four more.
Yeah, and again they're involving Gasicki a lot more now as well. So the fact that that that's happening, I mean, they're they're gonna be able to move the ball and with sixteen, man, I just doesn't take that much to cover that spread. So I'm gonna I'm gonna lay the points and probably feel.
Pretty dirty doing it, but whatever.
Let's move on to the Packers at the Lions Packers laying ten and the total of forty one and a half. We just talked about the fact that we have not yet seen tonight's game. If the Packers win, then I believe they secure a bye. If they win next week, and if they lose, then they're going to be in the position where they'll need to win to get the division. So I think under all circumstances, they're going to be motivated here. And then you've got the Lions. David Blau
is not really an NFL quarterback. They continue to do whatever they can. Karrie and Johnson came back, but certainly you wouldn't expect them to be able to hang with the Packers. Although the Packers are not that good of a team, despite the fact that they may get by here. So what do you think your Packers laying ten total of forty one and a half.
I think it's that last point, man, you know.
I think they could be a good team, but particularly their defense just isn't the same kind of group of world beaters. I thought they were kind of looking like earlier in the season. I mean just with I mean weeks one, two three, I won. The big story lines was like how ya a, Alexander's one of the league's nextpecs corners, and then you know, Marii Cooper kind of decided that.
That was not going to be the case.
But you know, I think Addams, Darius Smith, Prust and Smith and they were getting some pressure. But with that said, teams have really bit of a run on them. They also haven't been great at stopping explosive plays or Kevin King has been banned up. The defense really is anything pressive impressive, and I agree with you, David Blow not an NFL quarterback. With that said, they've scored seventeen to twenty points in three or four games underneath the center.
I think forty one and a half is just too low. The Lions defense has been very rough recently, starting to
deal with some injuries in their defensive line line. Kind of one thing they've done somewhat well over the last few months has been stopped to run, but now that's starting to get jeopardized to draw Davis and the ir recently, and thanks to that nature and look the Packers, they've done a good job getting Devonte Adams going, and really, other than Aaron Jones, kind of a little bit more sporadically.
It's been tough elsewhere, so I do think we're going to see them continue to try to get this offense to Joe kind of like similar to New England. We have not seen them peaqual yet on offense, so this could be a really good spot for them and try to get that rolling ten. I think they can get that too. I don't hate back in the Packers here, but I'm just more confident. I think these teams combining for forty two or more.
Yeah, no, I like it. I don't want any piece of this spread.
I mean, if I had to go one way, it'd be the Packers just because you know, you can see they're going to be motivated. They desperately need to win, regardless of what situation they find themselves in. But I agree with you that the total is going to be there. I mean the Lions again, they find a way to put up points.
Every week.
They put up seventeen, you know this past week against you know, not not an easy matchup against Denver. And I do think the Packers they you know, offensively, they're really not that impressive because they haven't found that second option in the receiving game other than Devonte Adams. You know who's their number two wide receiver right now? Is it Alan Lazard?
I mean who is at this point?
That's probably Lazarre. You know, you got Jimmy Graham's corpse running out there. We'll be doing a few things.
But now it has been rough and they're talking about like their big change going to this game is like Jake Cumero is getting more reps.
And nothing against Jake Cumro, but like Clue is the team.
You know, I all these draft pundets talking about how this twenty twenty wide receiver class is just like the best ever in there's a team that really needs to invest in number two receiving options to the Packers.
Yeah, absolutely, But again, you know, part of what the Packers have done this year is they've run the ball pretty effectively all season. You can run on the Lions, so I do think that going to be able to put up points, you know, somewhat on both sides.
So I agree with you with the total. I do not want any part of the spread right now.
If I had to, would be the Packers, but I certainly wouldn't want to get involved with it. Let's move on to the Redskins. At the Cowboys. Cowboys here are laying ten and a half with a total at forty four and a half. This game kind of epitomizes this week in that it's a game I've absolutely no idea the handy gap. I mean, the Redskins. They continue to play hard, they lose an overtime against the Giants. Doyne Haskins has already been declared out case. Kingum is certainly
capable of moving the ball as he did against the Giants. Meanwhile, the Cowboys likely lose the NFC East over here with their loss to the Eagles, Dak prescott shoulder did not look particularly you know right in that game. Mark Cooper was left on the bench at various points, so was Reynald Cobb. The Cowboys can still get into the playoffs if they win and the Eagles lose to the Giants, which is certainly a possibility to get to that game.
So there's motivation here, right.
They're not completely going to be like, Okay, we're done, But ten and a half points and a total forty four and a half. I don't know about you. I prefer the Redskins getting that amount of points. But let me hear your thoughts.
Yeah, I don't think this Cowboys team deserves to be favored by double digits right now really against anyone, anyone.
At the same time, you know, there's like world beaters two weeks ago against the Rams. I mean, it's just been such a check going high team all season long. And the one thing that really sticks out to me in this game, like other than the Cowboys just kind of general inconsistency, is just this Redskins defense has really fallen apart, and they've just had so many injuries. I mean number one cornerback Quitting Dunbar, their slot cornerback Faban Moreau,
both of them are all sorts of banged up. I mean, they've been trying to bench like Josh Norman for the entire second half, and they actually had to run them out there a little.
Bit just because so many other guys were banged up.
But I mean they're fresh off allowing thirty seven and forty one points the Eagles and Giants, who you know, I think we'd agree don't really have the same offensive.
Fire part of the Cowboys said.
With that said, I mean, there's no reason why the Cowboys should just score nine points against that Eagles secondary that was down to the backup quarterbacks by the second half. So I think I'm just staying away here. You know, it would make sense to me if it goes over and the Cowboys win. But I did not have a read with this Cowboys team right now. I mean, they have to play hard because again that they win the NFC East if the Eagles lose the Giants and they
get this win. So based on what's happened this division all year, certainly want to be the craziest thing, you know, the greatest way to end the season.
Seems like this is kind of what we're destined to see happened.
But I just thought enough confidentially in the Cowboys to put any money on him here.
I mean, the Cowboys could easily win this game by twenty five points, right or they could lose it. I mean that's the problem, right you go in, You're like, I really have no idea what we're gonna see. I mean, I think for me, what it comes down to is this. I think the Redskins are going to be able to put up points here. You know, their offense has not been embarrassing. I mean, Haskins has played better in recent
weeks than I expect it. And again, I think Keenum improves the offense because he's a capable.
Sort of backup quarterback.
Terry McLaurin is still playing well Adrian Peterson, It's still effective in that backfield somehow, So I do think they're gonna be able to put up points. And I really think, honestly, what this comes down to is, I really don't I think Prescott's shoulder is messed up.
I think, you know, he made one.
Throw yesterday where I was like, ooh, that that looks kind of like the dack of old. But other than that really wasn't there. So I don't think they're just gonna be able to go crazy with it. I mean, they'd be smart to just kind of pound Zeke.
But we'll see. But in the end, you're getting more than the key number of ten. I would take that.
And again, this is trending down by the way, it opened up at eleven and a half. It's now a ten and a half, so I could see it continuing to go down. I think the sharp money's probably going to come in on the Redskins on this one, So for me, I'd probably take the Redskins if you can get that hook with over ten. Once it drops to ten or a little bit below, i'd be a little more nervous about it. But as now, I'm going to fire a couple of bets on the Redskins getting that hook.
Let's move on here to Red real quick.
It also seems like a Marii Cooper can't be one hundred percent on now. I mean they're talking about he wasn't on the field on you know, that fourth and AD play because it wasn't a formation they were calling all day. But i mean, come on, man, and like four or five weeks ago, it's like how you couldn't watched one game without seeing just five awesome route running hillies from the guy creating like ten yards of separation
and we just haven't seen that. And he was listed on the injury report pretty regularly with kind of like knee calf injuries throughout the first half the season, and just kind of once they established that he was going to keep playing through this, I think they kind of took him off. So same thing with Dak. You know, if he's out there and kind of toughened it out, not one hundred percent.
Yeah, one hundred percent.
Great point there, I guarantee you almost as soon as the Cowboys season is over, you're gonna hear that Amari Cooper is scheduled first. Certain Yeah, right exactly. So yeah, look, he's trying to gut it out, but you know they're not at one hundred percent. For me, again, the bigger thing is Dak because I think if you can't make those throws that he's capable of making it. Just you know, the offense. Certainly at ten and a half, there's enough of a reason to think that there'd be a backdoor
cover at absolute worst. Let's move on here to the Colts at the Jaguars. Colts playing three and a half with a total of forty three. The Colts win handledly against the Panthers, but they really do very little offensively. It's mostly two punt returns from Naim Heines and and inept offense by Carolina that we talked about earlier. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are a complete disaster on both sides of
the ball. They lose against the Falcons by twelve. If not for that game that they somehow won against the Raiders in the last game in Oakland, we'd just be betting against them completely last time these two teams met, the Colts one by twenty.
I don't know about you at this point.
I honestly I thought the spread would be more like Colts minus five. So I you know, I like it at three and a half. But let me know your thoughts three and a half total at forty three.
Yeah, I really like the Colts here. I mean, you're right, nim Hines took those parking turns back and that was kind of big plays. But I mean, the Panthers couldn't slow down this Colts rushing offense the entire game, both Marlon Mack and Jeorde Wilkins, who were just kind of having their way with them. And that's because one the Panthers are awful. Like I said, four Panthers and oh look here we go the Jaguars, the two defenses that
you can run on no matter what. And the Colts, you know, the one constant they've had this season, you know, wide receivers banged up, Backfield's banged up, to Kobe's been a little bit inconsistent. The one consistent factor has been their offensive line. Now this is maybe the only offensive line injury you need to truly like, hang your hat on this week, but Quentin Nelson is currently in the concussion protocol. If he gets like, if he's clear, then I think the Colts can just run the ball down
in Jaguars throats all game. I never want to say a team is just quitting because I think, just like the nature of NFL football, you can't just quit out there. You're going to get hurt, You're get embarrassed, and these guys are still out there playing for a job. Like even last week, you know, the Falcons got up quick on the Jaguars still only won that game by twelve points, So I think saying they just kind of quit on
the whole thing is lit bit strong. With that said, I mean, like you said, other than that Raiders come back that just came out of nowhere, the Jaguars have lost by twenty three points, twenty points, twenty two, seventeen, thirty five, and twelve. I mean it's not They're not
just losing, They're getting blown out. And I think this is just a bad matchup for them stylistically, with the Colts offense that all they want to do is run the ball, and the Jaguars with they have five or six off ball linebackers on IR at this point, they just can't stop anybody on it. I like the Colts and yeah, i'd like them a higher number as well.
Yeah me too, man, We're we're in agreement on this one. That Jaguars like the defense looks like they just don't have all that much interest in tackling people.
I wondered whether or not the firing of Tom Coughlin would like sort of signal something. They'd be like, oh, you know, yeah, it would, We're released. Let's play lady. They were just terrible in that game. So yeah, I'm completely I'm all over. The Colts are at three and a half, and I'd be willing to do it even if it rose a couple points, which you know right now it doesn't show any signs of doing so. Before we hit our last games, I want to mind everyone
about our giveaway. It is a signed Michael Thomas Saint's helmet. You go to Bettingpros dot com slash contest for more details, but to enter, just leave a review for the show on Apple Podcasts or stitch er. Send the screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com and if you have already entered a previous contest, you are automatically
entered for this one, So no worries there. Now, the Tom's helmet, all of our signed helmets, they come from Pristine Auction, where they offer a ton of great memorabilia with thousands of auctions every day. Just go to Pristineauction dot com. That's p R I S T I n E auction dot com. And when you go there, use our promo code Betting Pros and win a free five dollars voucher instantly. All right, let's move on here to
the Eagles. That the Giants Eagles laying four and a half with a total of forty five and a half ian.
What are you up to next weekend? Do you have any plans next weekend? This weekend?
No?
No, this weekend coming up? Do you have any plans?
Yeah, I'm about to watch my Hogs day Buckeyes get that w over Clemson back.
Oh that's awesome. Well, good luck with that.
But if you get bored, do you want to catch any passes for the Eagles? Because I just checked on LinkedIn and there are I know, I froze.
You a little bit.
I wanted to see I wanted to lead you a little bit, but it's all right, man, I like your style. Legitimately they have nobody the ball is zach Ertz fractures his ribs. He's uncertain for next week. Jj R Thaka Whiteside is banged up. I don't know about his status. They hold their destiny in their own hands, but it's Dallas Goddard and Greg Ward and Miles Sanders. Apparently Jordan Howard is going to come back for this game. I don't think that matters whatsoever, because the one bright spot
has really been Sanders in that offense. What they have though, my being up against the Giants, who defensively continue to look awful. Offensively, Saquon Barkley dominates the Redskins both golden taint, Surling Shepherd heavily involved. Darius Slayton plays through an injury. But still they've got some offensive juice, just not much on the defensive side, specifically, especially since getting rid of
Jenero Shenkins. So Eagles with the destiny in their own hand four and a half over under forty five and a half.
Yeah, it'd be so much easier to just put all of our bank roll on Philly if they were just even remotely, not just bang up like as much as possible. So man Daniel Jones has gotten good at balling out against bad teams. He's gone for three hundred dollars and four touchdowns against the Redskins, Lions, and Jets, also a big game against the Buccaneers. Problem is, we've seen him pretty much collapse against everyone else. And I know, you know, we saw Devonte Parker just go nuts against the Eagles.
We saw Dwayne Haskins really after weeks of just not doing anything, all of a sudden the competent against the secondary. With that said, once they got Mills and Darby Helsy together, they've allowed seventeen or fewer points in six of their last eight games. I mean this Eagles defense, they have enough difference makers at the line of scrimmage. They can stop the run game, and even if their secondary can't always hold up, they at least get pressure.
So it's not like this is just an awful defense.
They have talented players with different spots, just sometimes their cornerbacks get attacked. I'd be much more comfortable laying the points with the Eagles if we can get some confirmation that Darby and Mills are gonna be back. I know they're not very good to begin with, but dating back to like last year too, and when the Eagles really fall apart, it's when they have injuries in the secondary.
At full strength, they're not really all that great to begin with, but once you take away those guys, it gets really bad. So I'm probably gonna stay away if those guys are out.
It's the NFC East.
If there's one thing we've learned this season, it's that who the hell knows what's going on in NFC East.
But uh, you know, got into my head.
I do think the Eagles win this game. Maybe not by four and a half though, so god, Giants plus.
Four and a half.
No, that's the thing. That's exactly how I feel.
I I bet you if you're the Giants, who I mean, I think they probably love this, right, They would love to win this game, and basic right, they are going to come in here.
It's this divisional game.
They like to play spoiler in this and you know it would be just so perfect, you know, indicative of what the season was.
If the ego both.
The Eagles and the Cowboys lose you know, their finals, I mean, that's what would really be poetry in this point. For me, I mean, I agree with you. Everything you're saying, Darby sounds a little worrisome to me, But you know, I am gonna I think I like the Giants with the points. I just I don't think that the Eagles have enough offensive firepower to be able to take advantage of that horrible Giants defense. I mean, and we're talking
how the Redskins just did it. I have more faith than the Redskins offense and the Eagles offense right now, given all the injuries.
So I think I lean towards.
The Giants, but I don't feel all that confident in it, frankly.
But that's around where we are.
Let's move on to the Steelers at the Ravens is one of the games that has moved the spread by multiple points. It was Ravens two and a half, it's now Steelers laying to. The total has dropped by three and a half points. Open at forty one and a half, it's now thirty eight. The Ravens are are They've already come out, they're Markingham's hurt, so he's clearly not.
Going to play.
Hopefully we'll be back to the playoffs with this cat strain. Lamar Jackson is resting this game, so you will see RG three. The Steelers defense remains strong, but offensively they are terrible. Dock Hodgs is going to get another start here because of Mason Rudolf's injury, but it sounds like James Connor is probably going to miss this game. From last thing I read, there's no tenth of.
Them going anywhere.
Even if they make the playoffs, they can get in if they win and the Titans lose. So what do you think here? I don't know how you even analyze this game. Steelers laying to and the total thirty eight, so the.
One important thing I'd also know with the rest, I mean, it was not only Lamar Jackson's been ruled out right, it's Earl Thomas Marshall, Yanda, Brandon Williams, and honestly, like last on Sunday, Jimmy Smith and Marcus Peters were each banged up at different points the kind of had to miss certain times. This is looking like it could be a full on like first team entirely benched. Now Ken Duck Hodges beat the second string Ravens in Baltimore, I'm not really sure. So it's seems to me like a
stay away. I mean, it sucks that this awesome Pittsburgh defense is kind of being wasted on a you know, just this offense and this kind of team in general. I know, makeu fits. Patrick's got in a lot of the praise, but more often not. Joe Hayden's been awesome. Devin Bush, after a real kind of first after a
rough stretch, kind of started his career. He's helped give them that sideline, the sideline their linebacker they've been missing ever since Ryan Shazier, and I think really when you have that kind of speed in the middle of their defense just helps kind of raise the performance of everyone else. So I would really like to know for sure who the Ravens are sitting, because you know, if we're only kind of missing those four guys, then I think they
could probably still get the job done. But to me, it sounds more like a full on benching and just kind of in the passing. We saw this in the I know, a completely different situation, but you know, Panther Saints, like Week seventeen last year, we've seen bad teams beat good teams that are arresting like most of their major and I think the Steelers, they're still well coach, their
defense is anyone's idea of the league. I would take the Steelers' points gun to my head, but kind of like the NFC East, I just don't want anything to do with the Steelers team because it's been tough to get a grip on them all season long.
There's only one part of the Steelers team I want, and that's the under and that's you know, this game has dropped to thirty eight. That is a low total. I don't think that's where it's stopping. I think it's going to continue to go down. I think you're going to end it around thirty seven.
Yeah, I like that call. I mean, I'm here, I'm here on the spot they're.
At right because you know they're not gonna the defense is going to be playing it. You know, it's not gonna be all backups, and they're gonna be you know, formidable enough.
And they're at home.
They're not you know, and and uh Dave Cocan I guess from last week talked about how John Harbaugh really hates to lose, so he's going to have them playing hard. It's hard to see the Steelers really being able to move the ball well. And if you've got RG three out there for the Ravens, it's hard to see them moving the ball against the Steelers. So I'll take the under. I'll enjoy a ten to three win by one of the teams, and then I'll move on from there.
That's an awesome point about Harbor. I forgot about his you know, just always a ma preseason record.
Correct. Yes, he's like the most winning his coach, and he doesn't like to lose. It was a great point.
So certainly he's not gonna just roll over here. But in the end they probably won't have enough offensive firepower to put up points on that Steelers defense. So I'll go with the under, and I'll hit it now before it drops even further. Let's move on to the Cardinals. At the Rams, Rams lank seven and a half with the.
Total at forty nine.
We're almost certainly gonna be without Kyler Murray here, I think, I mean, there was some optimism on his.
Hands own ran you think he's gonna play.
Cliff Kingsbury is saying like, if he's so enough to play, he's gonna play. And then reports come out that the MRI showed nothing significant. It's just a regular minor hamstring pool. I have no idea why you play it doesn't make sense, and he probably won't be a one hundred percent if he does.
But I to me, it sounds like legit questionable.
That's okay. I think that that's fair.
Yeah, he's certainly not in any way ruled out at this point, but again, you know he was battling hamstring injury a couple of weeks ago. It really seems pretty dumb to mess with the soft tissue injury at this point. Although God forbid something happened, he'd have plenty of time to recover before next season, so you know, you have to take that into account. If not, it's going to be Brett Hunley, who's capable of running the same type
of offense, just not nearly as effectively. Meanwhile, the Rams they nearly pulling out against the forty nine ers, they're going to miss the playoffs though it's really just about pride.
So how do you feel here?
Rams at home link seven and a half with the total forty nine, With the understanding that it's a bit uncertain with Kyler Murray, not to.
Say forty nine just seems too high. With a the whole Kyler situation. I mean, yeah, Brett Humley, it's kind of like the Ravens. You know, RG three can step in and run the same offense as Lamar.
They don't need to completely change styles.
But with that said, I think we're also seeing a fairly big drop off in talent like we would also see in Baltimore here in Arizona. So I think under forty nine. Yeah, the Rams offense, I thought they were kind of turning around. They've looked great against the Cardinals, and they played the first time Seahawks and then you know they had that Cowboys though, before actually being competitive again next week or last week against the forty nine ers.
So I feel better about the Cardinals plus seven and a half if we had more of an assurance on health. But kind of seeing how that game went the first time around two bad teams, I'll know we see both offense like put together a great performance here.
Yeah, I don't want any piece of this. I honestly, I feel like there are so many teams that I feel like I don't have a read on the Cowboys. We've talked, you know, who knows what you know? The Bucks were like that for us of the season. The Titans were like that for a lot of the season before they switch to ten l The Rams are a team I don't have a read on. I just don't know what I'm going to get any any game from
one to the next, you know, I it depends. I mean, even if Murray plays, I can't imagine it's going to be that effective. So, you know, I guess I think you make good points there. But for me just to stay away game, I think let's move on to the Raiders at the Broncos. Broncos laying three and a half with the total of forty one, Raiders are halfway home to the ten leg parlay or whatever they had to try to make the playoffs.
They win this game, the Titans.
The Steelers, and the Jaguars all lose, they will get in as the sixth seed. That is, you know, seems unlikely, but not crazy unlikely at this point when you look at those games. The Bronco's not a pushover, though they continue to play hard. Drew Lock has not been great, but he's done enough. The Broncos defense continues to play pretty well. So how do you feel here about the Broncos at home? Length three and a half of the total forty one.
I've been pretty presently surprised at what Drew Lock's done. I mean, look, he had the dud and arrowhead, but that was kind of a weird snow game. They weren't even able to run the ball, and I think that was just kind of a he wasn't gonna look good in that situation really no matter what. So if we're remove that, yeah, you know, looking pretty good against the Chargers, Texans and Lions. If you remove the Lions, at least the Chargers and Texans have They're not good defenses either,
but they're not complete, you know, just utter pushovers. So I think Drew Lock can move the ball on the Raiders defense, which is a complete and utter pushover that you know. I thought Phils philp Rivers company were gonna get going last week, but just with their inability to protect them, it's been a better offense in Denver. I mean, the one thing Lock has done has shown he can enable Courtland Sutton. We saw Lindsay in that run game
get going a little bit more last week. They're different teams, but you know, Raiders still playing for playoffs, but spot they did win this game in Week one, so they can move the ball. I the over runners a little bit low here of forty one. I'm kind of liking the over here just with the Raiders. They are fighting for the playoff lives and the Broncos, you know, with this momentum with Drew Locke, I don't think they're really
trying to take the foot off the gas either. I mean, they're in a situation where they win this day and they can kind of feel good about the direction they're heading into the offseason. So uh, not the best to back, you know, Derek Carr and Drew Locke in the game. I hope for the over end, but I think forty one is long enough will take that chance.
Yeah.
I mean, look, they just won what twenty seven seventeen I believe against the Lions, right, so that would that would go over there's no reason to expect this one to be all that different.
Yeah, I agree with you here.
I think the Broncos are going to win this game just because I think that that's how I think maybe everything else falls perfectly for the Raiders to make the playoffs, and they've done this, so yeah, that would be bad, But I think they win the game, but I'm not sure I love them at more than the key number of three. I mean, I expect it to be probably a tight game, but I agree with you. I think they're both going
to be able to put up points. Broncos surely are because the Raiders defense is really not good and as you know, the Broncos continue to play tough. They've been dealing with some injuries on the defense side of the ball, and the Raiders' offense is competent. You might see Josh Jacobs in this game. I mean he's you know, Gooden came out to end said he might play. But DeAndre Washington is a perfectly capable fill in running back. So I do think that there are going to be points.
So I like the call. I like over at forty one and the spread I'm probably staying away from. If anything, I lean a little bit towards the Broncos. Let's move on here to the Titans. At the Texans. Titans now are laying five with the total of forty five and a half. Pretty simple for the Titans. This is a playoff game. If they win, they are in. If they lose, they need some help. You can probably expect Derrick Henry to be back here. That was probably more about them
managing knowing that they would need to win this game. Meanwhile, the Texans are in but Bill Brian has suggested that the team is going to play their starters, although it's a little ambiguous. You know, they want to win every game. I'm not sure exactly what that means. They would be wise to probably rest to Shaun Watson since he was getting his butt kicked by the Bucks and getting hit at the best they could do is the three seed. They can't get the buy, so it's really between the
three and the four seats. So how do you feel here texting Titans on the road.
Laying five with the total forty five and a half.
Yeah, please rest Deshaun Watson?
Yeah, come on, man, Like you know you're talking about like how the Bills should rest Josh Allen and when we're talking about these types of quarterbacks too that are running around more often, you know, I don't think that just because you're a scrambling quarterback, you're necessarily more prone to injury. I mean, I think those quarterbacks are kind of able to be be more athletic and kind of avoid those big shots make these miss get out of bounds, like you don't just want to be a statue in
the pocket getting teed off on either. So I think that's a little bit of a misnomber sometimes. With that said, I mean Deshaun Watson. He makes magic happen sometimes. He also takes some bad sacks sometimes because he doesn't you know, he doesn't give up on plays, which is awesome when it works out, but you know, just too many times he's trying to throw the ball with guys around his legs. And if there's ever a quarterback that let's just take him off the field less go into the playoffs healthy
with him. I think it's Deshaun Watson, and he is the only reason why I would back up Texas in this game. So I think the Titans have better position groups pretty much across the board. You know, obviously DeAndre Hopkins, uh you know, is better than a J. Brown, which people might be trying to bay after this last month.
So I don't know, but you know.
In general, just line play, I think overall talent across the board, I think the Titans are better than the Texans.
Three and a half is a little bit high, but uh.
No, no, it's all the way up to five. Man.
Oh wow. So yes, I wrote down three and a half a couple of hours ago.
What that's exactly right. It's moved all the way up to five.
Wow.
Yeah.
So they must be assuming that they're going to be sitting the starters.
And I honestly, I think that that is a safe assumption.
I mean again, O'Brien came out said he wasn't going to do it, and and or he was vague about it, which I think. By the way, there are a couple of injuries which I guess we should mention Fuller's out for this game. Willfuller who left with a growing injury. He's definitely out of this game, which again, that's that's huge. It takes away the field stretcher that really kind of hurts their offense a little bit. And Corey Davis is in the concussion protocol, I believe, so he may miss
the game. He's obviously not a huge part of the passing game at this point, but his presence means something.
I think for me, what's going to happen is.
They're going to talk about it, like Deshaun Watson is playing coming into the game, and then the day before, maybe two days before, you're.
Going to hear that he's going to be benched. It would be ridiculous to play him in this game, Absolutely ridiculous. It doesn't matter if you're the third or the fourth seed.
He's a guy who, like you said, his big thing is he hangs in that pocket so he gets hit. You saw him he was limping around against the Bucks after getting hit a bunch of time. So I think in the end they're going to be smart about it and they're going to wind up sitting. I think Watson it's hard. Sometimes in these games you feel like the coach is like, well, I owe it, you know, to the Steelers. I'd want somebody to do it, you know,
to put our guys out there. But in the end, the other thing is that if the Titans jump to a lead, a little bit of a lead, you can see them then pulling Watson right or if he takes a shot, you can see them saying, okay, we're going to be careful air and pull him at this game. So for me, even at five I'm getting in, I think the number is actually going to continue to rise at this point. So if you like the Titans, like
I do, I jump in on it now. Let's move on to our final game forty nine the Seahawks forty nine ers length three and a half with the total at forty seven. Chris Carson down with the fractured hip, CJ prosize down with the broken arms. So it looks like it actually might be time for Marshawn Lynch. There is optimism that he was coming back, which I love it. Make the spread Seahawks minus you know, seventeen, because they're not gonna be able to lose that game if Lynch
comes back. There is a ton on the line here. The forty nine Ers win and they are the number one seed. Well, the Seahawks would likely be the fifth seed, possibly the sixth if they lose. Meanwhile, if the Seahawks win, they win the division and the possibility of the two seed. But it depends. There's just a ton up in the air. So how do you feel about the forty nine ers length three and a half with the total of forty seven in Seattle?
Like, Seattle has nothing new with marsh On Lynch, but I just look what's been the biggest problem with the Seattle offense kind of all year. The issue has been when they just refuse to pass, they take the game out of Russell Wilson's hands. Carson more often than not, was good, but come on, like eight nine fumbles where we've had this year certainly hasn't helped his cause for
the entire our season. As far as astoncerned, they should be getting Davian Clowney back, hopefully to kill Griffin, who is easily the best cornerback in a secondary that has always been been pretty pretty putrid all season.
I think it's a close game. We saw them play very close.
It's you know, winner gets the division to be over that key number on a team that's home and has clearly the better starting quarterback.
He lean toward Seattle, Yeah, I did initially when I looked at it.
Okay, look, okay, okay, Well here's the one thing.
Okay, this game against Arizona, this clearly struck me as something where the Shawks were just completely looking past it. Right, they knew that this was the game that was coming on. So the fact that they played so poorly overall, I'm willing to throw out and they are going to get healthier on the defensive side. This is just tough. It's a really tough game. I I don't want to back either a team at this point because I agree it
was the look ahead was three at that point. It wasn't you know, really that enticing either way at three and a half. I kind of agree that the Seahawks like the play at this point point, but I just it feels like the forty nine Ers at this point are just a.
More complete team. Overall.
The Seahawks all year have not been as good as their record has been. Of course, it's been mostly Russell Wilson finding ways that win a ton of close games.
I don't really have a good feel.
For it, honestly. You know, I like that you're a little more confident in the Seahawks than I am. But you know, I could see the forty nine Ers just you know, being the spirit team and coming in here and winning it, but again with more than three points. Basically, I'm just basically saying, I like, kind of don't like this side, but I kind of don't like this side, and that's where.
I'm kind of leaving it.
So in the end, all right, you're gonna get in there on the three and a half, and frankly, I think the number is gonna continue to move up. I think the sharpbetterers are liking the forty nine Ers here. They've been fading the Seahawks a lot during the season, and again, the Seahawks have have won a ton of close games. I think they've won by more than eight points just one time this entire season. So all right,
you're gonna take the three and a half. Any feelings on the total, by the way, at forty seven.
I kind of like the under a little, but just more we think about it. I'm just you know, I think his store the second game between division opponents. You know that we have seen lower scores in those games, you know, the second time you're running into that offense and healthier Seattle defense. Obviously we know about the forty nine Ers defense, which is also I mean, it was gonna see them get Richard Sherman, Kawan Williams back lass.
I think the falcons that they have, which is kind of more due to having five defensive stars out than anything. I can see the undergo here and just you know, a hotly contested, you know, kind of throwback mid to mid twenty tens.
Forty nine Ers Seahawks clash.
Yeah, I like it.
I think it's gonna be hard because you know, the Seahawks like to as much as you know, they probably do better just to turn over to Russell Wilson.
They like to run the ball a lot.
As good as fun as it will be to see Marshall Lynch back in Seattle, They're not gonna be able to do it as effectively as they were able to do when they had both Penny and Carson, So I think that leads to lower points. So I'm inclined to agree with you on the over under it With this spread, I'm just staying away and I'm just gonna, you know, enjoy watching the game from a lovelier ball perspective. All right, that's going to do it for today's show. Ian, thanks
for joining me. Remind everybody where they can find more of you and your work.
Thanks. That's fun.
Foind me on Twitter at iHeart it's I H A R T I t Z NFL analysts over at rotal World. I'll tweet out all my stuff throughout the week. Plenty of stuff on the way. I know the season long fans football is over, but the grind never stops throughout the off season.
So this is fun, man.
Yeah, it was great. I hope we can do it again. Thanks again to the sponsor of today's show, bet MGM. Remember to download the bet MGM Sports app and use it promo code Harris to get your risk free first wager of up to five hundred dollars, and don't forget to rate and review the podcast. Send a screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com for your chance to win a signed Michael Thomas helmet. We will be back later this week giving some of our best bets for Week seventeen.
I'll talk to you that