Hey there, everybody. Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. I am your host, Dan Harris and you can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. It is time for our early look at next week's lines. With me to break it all down, is our good friend Rich Ryan, host of the grid Iron Gamble podcast. You can find Rich on Twitter at Rich t Ryan. Rich. Thank you for joining us again. How are you.
I'm great. We unfortunately are coming off of a one and four week in the Super Contest after they dangled a carrot in front of us and let us go five and zero in week thirteen. So just when you think you're going to peak and there's light at the end of the tunnel, the betting gods punch you right in the face.
I don't want you to be worried, because I went four and one in the Super Contest this week, so I'm just riding high. I mean that's coming off of three and two weeks, so we're probably roughly equal over there. But yeah, man, I don't know. I felt like this week's games they were okay. I felt like I had a good feel for it. Other than I don't know
why I ever continue to back the Jaguars. It's like I haven't processed yet that they are completely dunzies, and I just keep going like, well, you know the Chargers. I'm not trusting the Chargers. I mean, let's be honest. At this point, I think the Jaguars are gonna get fired up with Minshew and that didn't work out.
Yeah, the Mania crash and we two had the Jags as one of our four losers. So right there with you.
Well, we'll talk about the line that's coming up for Week fifteen and whatever it is, I will not be taking the Jaguars. But in the end, Rich and I are going to go through each game on the Week fifteen slate. Before we do, though, it is time to announce the winner of our Odell Beckham Junior Signed Helmet giveaway. The winner is Clay from Dallas, Texas. Congratulations Clay, your helmet is on its way now. Clay actually put in
an entry for the Christian McCaffrey helmet. But as I have told you, an entry into any contest gets you automatically entered into all future contests, which means if you have already entered our contest. You're automatically entered in for this month's giveaway, which is a signed Michael Thomas Saints helmet. Now, if you haven't entered, why don't you like free things? Clay from Texas likes free things. To enter, just leave a review for the show on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher.
Send a screenshot of that review to contest at Bettingpros dot com. And all of our helmet giveaways come from Pristine Auction, where they offer a ton of great memorabilia with thousands of auctions every single day. When you go there, use our promo code Betting Pros and win a free five dollars voucher instantly. That's Pristine Auction dot Com, pri
I S t I n E Auction dot com. All right, As I said, Rich and I are going to go through every game on the week fifteenth slate, and we're going to be using the consensus odds over at Bettingpros dot com. That's basically the aggregate odds that you're going to find available in the marketplace as of right now when we record this on Monday night. All right, Rich, let's dive right in here with the Thursday night game.
Our Jets taking on the Ravens in balld More raven tiror Lang fourteen and a half with a total of forty five. So look, this is gonna be ugly. I mean, the Jets eke out the win against the Dolphins, but they're banged up all over the place. Does sound like Leveon Bell is going to play the Ravens. Meanwhile, they continue to roll with their big win over the Bills. The defense is playing extremely well. Lamar Jackson is essentially unstoppable.
So it is going to be gross. But is it going to be fourteen and a half points gross or what?
A lot of injuries here that we're gonna have to stay tuned to, which makes it even worse for the short week heading into Thursday night football. Baltimore has fewer, but definitely two key injuries on offense. Ronnie Staley suffered a concussion didn't practice today, and then at the tight end position, Mark Andrews left with the knee injury on Sunday. He did not practice today. That is Monday as well.
For the Jets, we know Jamal Adams and Leveon Bell missed on Sunday, so there are two players you need to keep your eye on and Ryan Griffin, Blao Powell, and Quinn Williams all left that game. So a bit of an injury ward on both sides of the ball, And to me, the biggest of those injuries is Jamal Adams. I was very intrigued about this matchup coming into this
for the last few weeks. I was waiting to see Jamal versus Lamar stick thirty three in the box and maybe he can contain this electric quarterback and that read option offense. Without Jamal, I don't know how the Jets get stops in this game. Everyone piling on Baltimore seventy percent of both the bets and the money, and if thirty three is not on the field for the Jets,
I kind of lean that way. As many points as that is short week, Ravens banged up that for a couple tough games, But I just how do the Jets get stops against this offense if their defense isn't healthy.
Yeah, they're not going to be able to. I don't know whether or not I can really take the Ravens laying more than two touchdowns. I get it. I'm not gonna argue with it. I couldn't take the Jets at this point. It's a short week, so I don't think it's really gonna move at this point. And as you said, the vast majority of the money is going to come in down the raven. Certainly the public is gonna like them. But yeah, I agree, And it's hard to see the Jets doing all that much on offense. I mean, with
their offensive line being as terrible as it is. Darnold needs time to throw to be able to get into sort of a mode. With the injuries, I don't think Mark Andrews is gonna be able to make it back. It sounds very minor whatever it is, you know, his his contusion above his knee or whatever it is. But I don't think he's gonna They're gonna force him on this short turnaround, considering it's the Jets. But look, Hayden Hurst can can easily step up, you know, as he
did this past Sunday. So for me, if you like this game, this is probably where it's gonna end up. I'm not going anywhere near it. I completely get it. But I cannot take a team, any team against a Jets. That Jets are a borderline competent team. I really can't take them a team giving them more than two touchdowns at the same time you bring up a good point, Adam's probably not gonna play. It's hard to see them keeping it at all close here, So for me, it's
a complete stay away. But I think fourteen and a half forty five with only a couple days before the line moves, I think that's probably where it's gonna end up, whichever side you like.
On to just one more sorry, real quick. The Ravens lead the league in blitz percentage as well. I saw stat today Earl Thomas has blitzed or filled like a run gap more frequently this season than he had his entire Seahawks career. And we saw on that Monday night specifically where Darnold was seeing ghosts. That's what he struggled
with the most is pressure. So if they bring all that pressure and they've got Humphrey and Peters and Jimmy Smith cooking outside, I don't know how the Jets moved the ball either, So this one might just be a nightmare scenario forgetting.
It's gonna be ugly. There's gonna have to be like a crazy special teamers or a fumble. Let's run back for a touchdown or something like that to keep the Jets in it, but still more than two touchdowns. I can't get in on it. I'm staying away either side. Let's move on to the Broncos. At the Chiefs here, this is down a bit. It opened or the look headline was twelve. From what I'm seeing, it's currently at
Chiefs laying ten and a half. And the total has dropped as well, from forty seven to forty five and a half. A lot of that is probably the fact that Patrick Mahomes is dealing with this hand injury now. X rays were negative and he Reid said he should play, so I think you can probably expect him out there. Although they're in this little bit of a weird position, right they have no chance really to get one of the buys almost certainly given their record, maybe I guess,
but a pretty low chance to get it. They've got their division sewn up, so it's sort of like, do you really want to risk Mahomes, you know, out there if things are getting bang around, he'll play. But you know, I think that's really the reason that you're seeing the spread and the total drop down. They do come off the big win, of course against the Patriots. Damian Williams might be back here. If not, I don't know who's
going to be running the ball for the Chiefs. They don't like to give the Sean McCoy all that many carries over're all Spencer ware saw five carries. It's just kind of a mess back there. All the Broncos. They come up with a huge win over the Texans. They're not nearly as bad as their record indicates, but they're a little bit jeckyle and high. They've been on a
great cover streak. I believe it's seven of their last nine games, so big spread here, Chiefs at home ten and a half, with the total forty five and a half.
Both teams stock soaring right now. Broncos were plus nine win out rights, they've won two in a row with their new shiny rookie quarterback, and then Patrick Mahomes and company go into Foxborough and beat them for what I think was their first loss at home in twenty two games. So you're not really getting much value with either team here. It is interesting that you did bring up that twelve
and a half look ahead. Now down to ten and a half, I think we might see it continue to go down because the Broncos are getting both the majority of the tickets and the money. So if you do like the Broncos, you probably should grab them as soon as possible if you can get the hook. But it seems like all the val, the value value, excuse me, is being sucked out of this line if you like Denver overall, I think it's a very fair line, and
that is an interesting point you bring up. I didn't think about the Chiefs and their positioning within both the division and the conference. And it's not like Matt Moor's looked poor under center credit to Eddie Andy Reid and his offense. So this is just a very fair line now that it's moved off that twelve and a half look ahead, and I'm not really interested in buying either team off of really big wins last week.
Yeah, neither am. I I think at ten and a half the value is still with the Broncos, So I still think, sort of as you mentioned, if you do want them, it's probably a time you get in on them before it drops down to ten, which you know, I think it might again. I expect Mahomes to play. I didn't mean to suggest that he's going to get
shut down. But I do think that they're gonna be pretty careful with them because I think they're in a kind of unique position here where there's three games left and their position is probably pretty set at this point. I mean, they could get a bye. I don't want to. I don't want to poo pooh, but you know, with the Pats, you know, playing the Bengals and the Ravens playing the Jets, it just seems unlikely that they're going to go in that direction, so they'll probably be careful
with Mahomes. Doesn't mean he's gonna sit, but for me, it's just something where he's a little banged up. It's not something I really want to go anywhere. If I have to choose something right now. I don't really care about the total, but I would lean the Broncos at ten and a half. Once it gets to ten or even single digits, I just kind of want to stay away, moving on Bucks at the Lions, the Bucks laying for the total at forty seven and a half. We have
some weirdness in this game. My friend Mike Evans almost certainly out after hurting his hamstring. Jameisston comes off a huge game, but he has a small fracture in his thumb. He was getting a second opinion today. I have not seen it. The early word sounded like he wouldn't miss any time. Of course, he got taken out briefly right around halftime to get that looked at, and he played great after that for the most part. So looks he
should be able to play. But who knows. And of course you're in that position where he takes a bad hit or something like that on his thumb, who knows what happens to Meanwhile, the Lions are the Lions. David Blow doesn't do all that much, the defense doesn't do all that much. Nobody does all that much ever, but they kind of hang around for the most part in games. How do you feel here about the Bucks playing four in the total at forty seven and a half.
Yeah, that Winston injury reminiscent of the Browns the previous week. Baker hits his thumb before halftime, gets removed, and then comes back at the start of the third quarter. Buck's coming off three straight wins a somewhat good Jamis game. I guess we could just throw out interceptions. They're just to be expected.
You don't understand, right, every Jamis game is that's a minimum of three turnovers. So the fact that he just put up the stats, you're right, you just throw out all those interceptions.
Counting stats legend Jameis Winston. I think he's a favorite now to lead the league in yards, touchdowns, end interceptions, which is pretty remarkable. Well, yeah, I am never buying the Bucks off of three straight wins as road favorites in two thousand and nineteen. I know the Lions are bad. I know something blow or blow is horrific, but I just don't have it in my fiber to click the
Buccaneers in the spot. So I'm going to close my eyes, pinch my nose, and probably take the four in the spot with Detroit.
Yeah, I hate to do this because it's the third straight game, but I'm avoiding this game. Super content is going to be tough, man, because we've got just, you know, all these lines where I'm like, Nope, don't want any piece of that. It's very difficult here. Ordinarily, I honestly I would lean the Bucks because I think they're playing better overall. I think their horrific secondary has been a
little bit better. I think their offense is very difficult to stop, and it's really tough with the Lions at this point. I mean, what do you really have to go forward to? Blow is not a guy who should be quarterbacking in the NFL regularly anyway. So on a normal day, I would take the Bucks at four. But what's interesting the Evans injury, You've got the Winston sort of you know, uncertainty, and yet the line has not moved.
It has stuck at minus four. So with all of that, it's just not something I really want to go there, and I don't want to back the Bucks on a good day, So you know, for me, kind of in that same vein, it's a stay away for me. But if you know, I won't even say where i'd go if I had to choose a side, because I don't want to have to choose a side. If anything, I kind of like the over on the total forty seven
and a half. I think the Lines are going to be able to put up points, you know, considering the Bucks secondary, although it is getting better, they're still not going to be able to completely contain Kenny Galladay. So I do see the Lines being able to put up some points here and you know, the Bucks, who basically go over on every single game, are probably going to
get there. So of anything, I lean over on the total of forty seven and a half where it is right now, but for the spread, I'm not really going near it. Let's move on to the Texans at the Titans. This is a good one. Titans here are laying two and a half at home with a total of fifty up from forty eight and a half. This is really for the South. It appears the Texans they're all over the place. They beat the Patriots in convincing fashion, then
they get blown out by the Broncos. Their pass defense had played much better of late, but they struggled on Sunday. Willfuller again misses the game with an injury, so his status is certainly something to monitor. Meanwhile, the Titans come off a huge win against the Raiders. This is what I talked about last week. Rich. I did not understand
the Titans laying a field goal to the Raiders. I understand that they had all that they were going cross country, and they were close on a couple of games where obviously they pulled out a few games that they easily could have lost, like against the Colts and against the Chiefs and against the Bucks. But Ryan tannel is playing extremely, extremely well. Derrick Henry is a scary man when it starts getting cold. He is battling through that hamstring injury,
but he looked like he was okay. The defense continues to play well overall. So you got a divisional game here, both team's really desperate for the win. Titans now laying under a field goal two and a half with the high total of fifty.
Yeah, and this was a one and a half look ahead. So moving in the direction of the Titans. They're getting credits with this massive winning streak and the performances that Ryan Tannehill is putting together. Texans last week, massively inflated line they got, I think it moved from seven and a half to nine thanks to their victory against the Patriots, and then they go out and lay an absolute stinker that we referenced earlier with the Broncos coming into town.
I think this line is fair, and if I had to choose, I think I might take Houston just because I need to sell this Titans touchdown offensive efficiency. Ryan Tannehill looking like Joe Montana because my eyes have seen Ryan Tannehill play too poorly in the past for me to buy these recent performances as something that are indicative going forward. I will say my favorite aspect of this game is the total. I like playing the under fifty
in this game. I think because the stakes are so high, Like you said for the South, I think this will be a little more of a grind your game than most people expect. And then yeah, the Tannehill regression is a real thing, and the Titans defense is excellent, so I think the Texans might be held in check as well. So I think, really close game, really fair line. But give me the under on fifty in this game. I think it'll be a little more low scoring than people think.
Yeah, I honestly I agree with you on the total for sure. I think this is you know, you got a divisional game. Actually oddly enough, I mean we're in week fifteen. These teams haven't played yet. I mean they're playing again in week seventeen, which is a little weird, but so you know, when you have the second game with the divisional game, I feel like, well, the teams really know what they're about. They don't have that here. But either way, I agree with you and the Texans
defense overall. I mean, I know they had a bad game against the Broncos, but overall they've been playing a little bit better even without JJ Watt, So I do find this to be closer to a defensive struggle. So I also like the under fifty. I admit though, and my bosses tease me because they know now I'm like all in on the Titans suddenly. But if I had to lean one way or another, if you're under a field goal, I like the Titans. I'm kind of buying
Ryan Dan right now. I mean, I don't know whether or not it was Miami, but the thing is, I've watched him really closely. He is playing really, really well. This isn't fluky right now. You know, not only is he doing it with his legs, but he's making good reads. He's incredibly accurate at the moment. I get he has a whole career of mediocrity behind him, but with the way he's playing right now, I'm really am backing it.
And more so than him, it's really Henry Man. He did this last year where he got going at the end of the year and you just don't want to tackle him once it gets a little cold. Who wants to tackle that guy? At this point, he's playing great, so as long as he's healthy, I would lean slightly towards the Titans. I'm not sure if I'm willing to bet it, but under the key number of three, I lean that way. But the big thing here I agree with you is the total at fifty and again it's
trended up. I like it now that you can get in and certainly get some value there. Moving on here to the Dolphins at the Giants. Giants here are currently laying a field goal with a total of forty seven and a half. We are recording this in the middle of the Giants Eagles game. It's approaching halftime, so we don't know exactly what happens here, but it's going to be Eli Manning under center again next week. Daniel Jones has basically been giving a two to four week timetable,
so he's probably gonna miss this game. Meanwhile, the Dolphins continue to play hard, but they lose Devonte Parker to a concussion, Albert Wilson gets injured. Two really bad teams. This line is just basically I think bookmakers being like, I don't know, Goad you know, get somebody give us something on this. So what are you giving us? A Giants slaying a field goal total at forty seven and a half, I think.
Back to back trips to the Meadowlands and MetLife Stadium is one of the worst punishments that you can dole out to this historically bad Dolphins team. Yeah, on the surface, I want to lay the points with the Giants, just because the Dolphins truly have reverted to the form that they showed in the first couple of weeks of the season. But I'm not really in love with other side on the spread. So again, I'm going to revert to the total and I'm going to go to the other side
and maybe the fish style here. And that's the over on forty seven and a half. This game is defense sold separately and specifically. The Dolphins have been playing these massively high totals the last couple of weeks fifty seven, sixty five, sixty eight, and then last week against our beloved Jets, the total was forty three, but the Dolphins kicked seven field goals, So even if they turned half of those drives or three out of seven into touchdown drives,
this shoots well over forty seven and a half. So I think the lack of defense FITs' ability to push the ball down the field at all costs is intriguing. The one thing I will say on this is that if neither DeVante Parker nor Albert Wilson go both were taken out with the concussions on Sunday, I'm less excited about this forty seven and a half. But even if we get one of those guys, I think this is shooting over.
You don't have faith in Alan Hearn, you can get some stuff then I actually, I'll be honest. I maybe it's partly because you never know his concussions. You don't know what's gonna happen, But you know, I'm sure they're gonna be careful with Parker at this point, he's been great. I kind of lean the under actually, I mean, I get you make good points in this game, but if you do have Parker injured, and let's just you know, again, you're basically putting that as a qualifier. I'm kind of
not expecting him to play at the moment. And really, look, I mean this game that I'm watching, you know, the Eagles certainly have a decent defense and it's in the rain. But the Giants with Eli Manning do not strike me as a team who's going to be able to move the ball and put up significant amount of points even against the Dolphins defense. So for me, forty seven and
a half, I mean, it's a solid number. I kind of lean the under at this point, but again, it a little bit is dependent on whether Parker Albert Wilson whatever, it's really about Parker. He is the guy who makes it go. So if Parker plays, I'd probably stay away from the total overall. But if he doesn't play, I'm
all over the under here. I at forty seven and a half with the spread, I just no, I have no interest in betting on the Giants against the Dolphins with a three point spread, so I would stay away from it there. Let's move on to the Seahawks at the Panthers. Seahawks here are laying six and the total at forty eight and a half. Panthers just a sinking ship here. Kyle Allen is going to remain the starter,
but their defense has totally caved in. Seahawks mean want they get beaten up pretty good by the Rams on Sunday Night Football. They lose for Shod Penny. The over under for carries for Chris Carson against this abysmal run defense is like twenty eight or something like that. Is that going to be enough with the Seahawks laying six in Carolina and a total at forty eight and a half.
Yeah, ACL injury for Shod Penny, which is just absolutely brutal for the kid. They finally got him going after stubbornly sending Chris Carson for one yard and a cloud of dust for several weeks this season, and then the kid goes out and suffers an ACL injury, which I mean, it's just brutal.
Yeah.
The Hawks are one of the few teams in twenty nineteen that want to run the ball, establish it, as the kids say nowadays. And as you noted, the Panthers are an absolute triage unit up front on the defensive line, and this is absolutely the way to attack them. So man six is just so many points. Four was the look ahead Seahawks go out and look horrific in primetime and the line moves in the other direction just because the Panthers seem to have quit, lose their coach, go
on the road, look completely lethargic. If you think the Carolina Panthers will show any signs of professional pride and go out and play a football game like normal, then I think you have to like the plus six in this spot. But that is completely uncertain now that they've lost their coach and with the effort they gave last week against a pretty poor Falcons team. So the sharp person inside me is screaming to take the six points, but you need some real intestinal fortitude in order to fire that.
Yeah, I mean the sharp side is probably the Panthers. And I don't mind to be square on this one because I'm all over the Seahawks if you get them under a touchdown. Look, I faded the Panthers, you know, I've been fading them lately, certainly faded them against the Falcons this week. They're just done, dude, Like, I get you didn't have the fired our coach. You know, let's rally around and maybe make that a thing. No, they're done. Their defense looks like they have absolutely no interest in
tackling anyone whatsoever. They're just gonna play out the season. And you know, the Seahawks coming off that loss, now they gotta I mean, they're gonna be hungry. They're obviously in the dogfight to you know what. They might be the number one seed, they might be the number five seed. It's a big difference there. You know they're gonna look to get back on track here. Six is a lot under a touchdown now. I feel completely fine with it. Honestly, if you get up to that key number of seven,
I'm probably gonna stay. But if I get six is a big number. Don't care if you. I think the Panthers are completely done. I think that the books have not comple fully adjusted to what they are at this point. So for me, I don't really care about the total. But at laying six, I'm gonna take that and I'm not gonna hesitate really personally. Before we move on, I want to tell everyone about the sponsor of today's show, bet MGM. You do not have to run up to
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Bears at the Packers. Packers are currently laying four. This has been trending down now for a while, the total at forty one. Bears are starting to feel it a little bit. Mitchell Trubisky has played very well of late. The Bears need to win out to have any shot at the playoffs. They are down. Rocon Smith here on defense is going to miss the rest of the season with the torn peck. Meanwhile, the Packers beat the Redskins, but they just do not have that killer instinct at
the moment. The offense works, but it rarely clicks on all cylinders. They are beatable on the ground. That's not really where the Bears sort of shining. Dave Montgomery is capable, but he hasn't really gotten gung. So how do you feel here, Bear's visiting the Packers. Packers now laying just four with the total of forty one.
Yeah, look at it seven and a half. Yep, and now we're down to four. I know Mitchell Trubisky has looked good, but and they have the mini by the couple extra days arrest, but that is certainly a plummet. But just like you said, what is this Packers offense averaging eighteen point eight points per game since Halloween. I don't know what to make of this squad. You talk, A lot of people are talking about the Patriots and they're trying to give Brady a pass because guys aren't
getting open. But outside of DeVante Adams, the Packers are having the same issues in guys getting open. And then Rogers is kind of doing this thing where kind of like Deshaan Watson in clean Pockets, he's just breaking down and freelancing a little bit, and it's just all a bit odd. All of that being said, with this line as depressed as it is, I think you have to like the home team at four. I'm not buying into
this Bear's resurgence. Much of that has to do with them playing a Lions team with their third string quarterback and then a Cowboys team which cannot compete against teams with the pulse it seems, so give me the Packers at four. Very strange line movement off of seven and a half being looked at.
I think if you like the Packers is where you gotta get them. I don't think it's going lower than this, because, as you said, it has moved a ton coming in, so I kind of agree with you. It's more of a game where I don't have a great feeling for it. But if I had to pick a side, it would be the Packers at this point because four is just too little for a divisional game for a team playing at home. You know, the defense hasn't been quite as strong,
but it's still there. It's still solid against the pass, and I don't think the Bears really have that run a bit that's going to be able to take advantage of where the Packers real deficiency is on defense. So I think this is probably where it starts stops. I don't think it's getting down to three or anything like that. So if you like the Packers as you do, as I kind of do, I think this is a spot to get him because I could see this closing back closer to five as the sharp guys probably come in
and realize the value there. Let's move on to the Patriots at the Bengals. Patriots here laying eight and a half with the total of forty and a half. Can you do it? Rich? Can you take the Patriots here? They look terrible offensively. Tom Brady has that giant rap on his elbow, The defense has not been elite. But then there are the Bengals, Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd. I don't really have all that much to say about them.
I mean, they look a little better with Andy Dalton back there, but they're just not a good football team. So how do you feel here about the Patriots visiting the Bengals eight and a half total of forty and a half.
I would have taken them at the ten and a half look ahead, and I certainly would have taken them at the ten open as well. But people are pounding the Bengals down to eight and a half because they're realizing that this Patriots offense is not good enough to cover these large spreads. I mean, they absolutely dominated a
team like the Cowboys a couple weeks ago. Right you walk away from that game thinking that the Cowboys had really no shot and the Patriots couldn't extend never could extend the lead, never could get the ball in the end zone. And I don't foresee them being able to do that for the rest of the season. And the one thing that the Patriots want to do on defense is they want to funnel you to run the ball, and the Bengals want to run the ball. Despite being
a bad team. Joe Mixon has actually gotten it going here these last couple of weeks. Dalton is back and he's not the greatest, but he's probably replacement level where that's not the type of quarterback player they were getting. So I think all the value has unfortunately already been sucked out of this line. But even at eight and a half, I still shade the home team. The Patriots are just not good enough to be laying a number that's this large on the road.
There's got to come a point, man, There's got to come a point where they just take all their anger from the last couple of games and just let it explode on someone. And you know, eight and a half I lean the Pats, I really do. I agree that they're you know, they're They're not nearly in the same class right now as they were at any point over the last several years. But the Bengals are just a
really terrible football team. They really are. They're a little bit more competent with Andy Dalton, but I don't foresee them being able to move the ball very well. I mean, Autun Tate is probably going to miss this game as well, So it's really just Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon. And you know, you know what Belichick does, He takes away whatever you do best. That's probably going to be mixing,
even though again they want to funnel the run. As you said, they're probably going to focus on taking Mixon away. I think the Bengals are going to have a tough time scoring, and I think the Patriots are gonna be able to do enough with their scheme. You know, they don't have the playmakers at the moment. It's really Julian Edelman that's it. I don't know, maybe Sony Michelle gets a bunch of carries, but I feel like this is a spot where the Patriots they have to by the way,
because the Bills are playing extremely well. As you know that both teams losses past weekend, but the Bills are right on their heels. They cannot take a chance of having the Bills catch them. I think they're gonna pull out all the stops here. I think they're gonna cover it at eight and a half. If it was at ten or ten and a half, like you mentioned earlier, Yeah, at that point the values with the Bengals, But here,
I don't know. Man just got a feeling that this is kind of a spot where they're gonna look to get right. I don't love it, but if I'm forced to take a side, I'll go with the Pats at eight and a half. Let's go on to the Eagles at the Redskins. Eagles here are laying six and the total at forty and a half. Again, the Eagles game is going on right now. Al Sean Jeffrey has been carted off. I think Lane Johnson left trying to watch it out of the corner of my eyes. So they
are just dropping like flies. They've also played terribly of late the Redskins. Meanwhile, they keep it close against the Packers. They have lost arius guys. They love to run the ball all day, and that is the Eagles strength. So it really doesn't set up well for the Redskins. But how do you feel here about the Eagles laying six in Washington with a total of forty and a half.
Yeah, the Eagles one of the few pass funnel defenses in the league. Right They want you to run the ball because that's how they can stop you. While their secondary is just below average. We're seeing Eli Manning look like a competent quarterback in twenty nineteen on the road, which is something that should not be happening. That being said, Eagles minus six on the road is just playing stupid.
In my opinion. They need to be able to in order to be minus six on the road in professional football, you need to get out to leads and then extend leads. That's the only way that you consistently cover these numbers on the road in pro football, and the Eagles offense has just not been able to do that whatsoever. And you can blame it on WinCE, you can blame it on this receiving corps which has not been healthy the entire year, lack of a running game.
What have you.
But the fact of the matter is is that the Eagles offense just is flat bad and they're not going to be able to cover six consistently enough Washington. Even when they're behind, even when they have no chance of winning, they just run the life out of the game. Bill Callahan just wants to line it up and run the football, which doesn't make sense if you want to win a football game. But if you're holding a plus six ticket and you just want to see that clock take off,
it is certainly in your favor, So Washington. I talked about professional Pride earlier and will the Panther show it? I know Washington will show it. They're three to ten, but they still go out there. They fight in the trenches, they play defense, they run the ball. Not sexy things, but very sexy when you're holding a plus six ticket at home. So give me the Washington professional football team.
Yeah, I agree. Other than the Seahawks, this one is, oddly enough, my favorite one that we've gone through so far. I certainly like the Redskins. My guess is that the spread is going to drop after, you know, pretty coming up soon given all the injuries that the Eagles are suffering tonight. So if you like it, I'd lock it in. And I also you made a good point with running the ball constantly. May not be good for catching up, but it's good for sort of keeping the game close.
It also is good for running out the clock and keeping a low total. So for me, given both team struggles on offenses, forty and a half, it's not particularly high. Of course, it's a load total, but I still like this game to come in as under, so I'm going to be locking in both of those bets. Right after this podcast, because I feel pretty good about them. But yeah, it's a crazy, crazy world. But the Redskins getting six from the Eagles is one of my favorite bets that
we've gone through so far. Let's move on to the Browns that the Cardinals. Browns laying three with a total of forty eight. The Browns beat the Bengals, but they just kind of look like they don't really care about life right now. Odell Buckham Junior playing through a sports turnia. Baker Mayfield looks like he forgot the setus alarm and he rolled out of bed and barely got to the game on time. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have lost several games
in a row. The defense continues to be subpar, Kyler Murray having a little bit of trouble getting things going against some tough defenses. It'll be a little bit easier for him here. So how do you feel about the Browns sang three with the total of forty eight.
What are the Browns doing well? Why do they win football games and then have these super strange things happen, whether it's Miles Garrett attacking the quarterback with a helmet or Baker Mayfield throwing the entire training sta under the bus, like these things are happening after wins. Well, what's gonna happen if this team goes on a losing streak?
Just to be clear, though you knew, right, everybody knew this was a possibility.
You got that group of.
Guys together and if they struggled, it was going to be a powder keg. So this is it's a dysfunctional, dysfunctional atmosphere at the moment.
What a strange team, and yet I think they're actually a decent playing this spot. How do the Cardinals get stops? They just something Duck Hodges while in there with no juju, no connor, and went out and scored points in professional football on the road, Like these things should not be happening. And it's as clown as the Browns act from Monday
to Saturday. On Sunday, this offense has been clicking, specifically with the return of Kareem Hunt and Freddy Kitchens rolling out this twenty one offense with both backs on the field, they've just been fantastic. So I think two and a half is a bit two and a half look ahead was a bit short. I think it's more respectable where it is at the full three, but I still think there's a little bit of value on Cleveland. My favorite
bet is the over on forty eight. Though we all know Cliff and Kyler that are running at the fastest pace in the league almost twenty five seconds flat per play in games that they are in, They're not going downfield as much as I'd like them too. The horizontal raid has been bleeding my eyes out for fourteen weeks now, but they actually started to push the ball downfield last week, albeit against a great defense, and it ended up in three interceptions. But what do you guys have to lose.
Let's just start throwing the rock downfield and let Kyler cook. So I like the over on forty eight. In this game between the Browns and the Cardinals, I.
Don't love the spread. I just don't trust either team at this point. I could see the Cardinals pulling out this victory at this point at home, one of their last chances to really get right. But I completely agree with you on the total. I think both teams are going to go a little crazy here. I think it's
just going to be a lot of touchdowns. I think the Cardinals are going to be extremely happy to not have to be looking at teams like the Steelers, you know, and tough defenses that they've had to face of late. So I can see this one really going well over The total forty eight, it's a you know, not a crazy number. It's a high number, but I think they're going to sort past it. So that's really the bad I like on this game. The total I'm probably going
to stay away from. I just do not trust the Browns to be able to as you know, as much as I see them scoring, I don't really see them stopping the Cardinals at this point either. Let's move on to the game that only betters are going to be watching, the Jaguars at the Raiders. Raiders here are laying six. The total is at forty five and a half. It's who wants it least in this game, I mean, both just look like they've completely quit. The Jaguars continue to
get absolutely blown out. They're probably down DJ Shark in this game. The defense cannot stop anybody. But they're also the Raiders who don't have Hunter Renfro anymore. They lost Falster Moro, They're playing without any PEP whatsoever. So how do you feel here about the Raiders at home lank six with the total of forty five and a half.
Poor Josh Jacobs takes the shot before the game, thinks he's gonna go, but he gets ruled out.
He's got a fractured shoulder. Dude. I mean, I don't know how long you're gonna talk. I mean, he may play. He was close to playing last week, so he may play in this game, but who knows.
Tough guy. You know, as I sit here complaining about, you know, fifty five degree weather here in southern California being too cold, this guy has a fractured shoulder and he's trying to put it play pro football. So good on. The rookies had a great campaign. This is just too many points, right, Raiders laying six. I know the Jaguars were horrific last week. I know Gardner Minshew has those blow up games in him. DJ Shark on the injury
report very concerning. I understand all of these things, but I cannot abide by the Raiders being minus six in pro football here in twenty nineteen. So another just like the Lions, close your eyes, pinch your nose, take the points.
No, I mean, I'm not going with the Raiders. I promise you that, But I'm not going with the Jaguars. There's just no way I can. I can go with the total though, because I think both teams are going to be able to put up a lot of points right now. I mean, if Jacob's plays great, you know, DeAndre Washington was more than competent at this point. Jalen Richard is used to getting in there and catching passes.
I think the Raiders are going to be able to put up points, which again they did against the Titans. I think they put up twenty one. They're able to score some. I think the Jaguars, I mean, their offense is not incompetent. You know, they didn't have a great game of course against the Chargers, but I think even without Chark, who I expect to miss this game, I think they're still going to be able to put up points.
I think Lennon Fournette is going to run wild, and obviously running is not great for the over but forty five and a half now, I think the defenses are going to struggle here to stop anybody. But I get you. I mean the Raiders laying six to twenty team right now, you'd be like, give me that, but again, I've lost much money on the Jaguars of late. They're not a team that I can back with any semblance of confidence. Let's move on here to the Vikings at the Chargers.
The Vikings laying two and a half with the total of forty four and a half down from forty six. I don't think I bet correctly this season for or against the Chargers, So take this for what you will, but to me, this line seems way too little. I think the Vikings should be laying more than a field goal. I get that the Chargers are better than their record. They blew out of quitting Jags team, they got Derwin
James back. The Vikings are a good football team. Yeah, their pass defense is not so special, and yeah they're having to travel all the way out west. But less than a field goal, I don't know, man, I think that you know whether or not Adam Thielen returns in this game. I think their offense is plenty capable of moving the ball well. I get that the Chargers run defense has been better, especially of late. Melvin Ingram has made their defense stronger, But I think the Vikings have
a really, really solid offense. I think they can score on anyone, and I just I don't get this underfield goal. So for me, I really like the Vikings saying two and a half total forty four and a half I'm indifferent about. But how do you feel here with that spread in that total?
Adrian Fields Phillips back in that secondary as well, next to Derwin James. I've been on a full fade of the Chargers this season and it's worked out pretty well in spots like that Denver game where they were somehow road favorites going to Mile High. I thought last week was going to be a repeat, as we mentioned at the top, both of us one of the Jags in the super contest that did not go over well, and that's where you kind of get this half point of
love for the Chargers. This was a plus three look aheadline, which I agree with you. I think that's more of a fair number, but it has ticked down to two and a half. I am afraid of Kirk Cousins on the road outdoors. I'm still not a believer in him. I don't like if Deeland's not in this game, but my gut is telling me that this Chargers team is still well below average Philip Rivers is still, you know, seconds away from stepping away from the game, but I
don't know. It's suspiciously low. They're begging me to take the Vikings, so I think I just have to press pause on this game and step away.
I you know, I completely get that. It is the line where I looked at it and be like, why do you want me to take the Vikings?
What's wrong?
What's wrong with taking the Vikings? You want me to take the Vikings. I don't understand this is problematic, but sometimes I just take the Vikings in that situation. Anyway, if I look at it and I run the numbers and everything sort of comes out that way, it does. Look the Charges are tough team to get a read on because they're better than their record. They could have, you know, been much better this season. But in the end, look the Vikings. They stop the run pretty well. They're
vulnerable against the past. But if you're going to tell me that, you know, Philip Rivers is going to have to take this game and win it. I'm willing to risk that. And I have a little more faith and cousins than you do. I think he's played extremely well this year with or without Delan, I think they can get going, especially given their run game, which is strong all around, and Cook looks like he was fully healthy, you know, and if not, Alexander Mansen is perfectly cable
of stepping in. So I'm going to be on the Vikings right now, so long as we're underneath a field goal. Let's move on to the Falcons at the forty nine ers. Forty nine ers currently laying ten and a half with a total of forty seven. The Falcons come off the drubbing of the Panthers. Their offensive line is getting a bit healthier, but they do lose Calvin Ridley, one of their best wide receivers. He's out now for the season with an abdomen injury. The forty nine ers, meanwhile, they
win the monstrous game against the Saints. But they're coming off too really really tough games here, the first one against the Ravens, this one against the Saints. They are dealing with a ton of injuries. They're centers down, they're down Richard Sherman, they're down d Ford. They're really really struggling right now with the injuries. But they're obviously the Superor team here. So how do you feel about the forty nine Ers likening ten and a half at home with a total of forty seven.
Yeah, despite that Marqui win, this line does not move off of the ten and a half look ahead, which is a bit surprising because I don't think the Falcons victory last week was earth shattering in any way, shape or form. I lean a tiny bit to the Niners in this spot because I think the Falcons are more of the team that we saw the first half of the season than the team that we've seen in the last couple of weeks, where they got a pair of wins against a Panthers team that has revealed itself to
be a bit fraudulent. And there's just something about Matt Ryan going across the country outdoors without one of his marquee weapons that makes me very weary about taking them in the spot. That being said, you mentioned the two games. The game before that it was a bit of a boat racing by the Niners, but that Niners Packers game. A lot goes went into that game in terms of scheming. So three exhausting games in a row. So while I like the Niners, I don't love the Niners. What I
do love is the under on forty seven. I think the Niners are very interested in getting back to their style of football, which is not eighty points in a dome. It is lining up and running the football in a lot of different ways, getting the ball to Brada Yushchek Mos dirt guys on jet sweeps, and just dominating at the line of skirmide. So I like the under on forty seven. I think the Niners go out and win
this one pretty handily. So I do shade that ten and a half, but I feel like they might run the life out of this game and kind of just take advantage of a subpar Falcons Seafens.
Yeah, that's a good call. I don't really love either of these numbers. I honestly would have leaned towards the Falcons with Ridley there. It's a wide receiver. It doesn't really affect the number, you know, significantly, but Ridley is a fantastic football player, and I think without him being
there as that second option. I know, Austin Hooper's back, DeVonta Freeman's back, but without Ridley being there for that second option, even though the Niners are down Richard Terman, I think they're gonna be able to try to take Julio Jones out of this game, and that's going to really make the Falcons struggle. At the same time, I don't love it when you're over ten. That just makes
me a little nervous because the Falcons. The one thing about them I was in one of the many who was calling for dan Quinn to be fired earlier in the season. They continue to play hard. I get, you know, you don't want to read too much into, you know, beating up on the Quinning Panthers team, but they continue to play tough. It's just not a team that I'm really looking to fade when they're getting double digits at this point. So this is probably gonna be a game
that I'll stay away from. I do like your call on the under. Again, not something I'm overly excited about, but I do like that. You know, they're probably gonna want to get back to their bread and butter a little bit, especially with how good most of it looked this past weekend. Let's move on to the Rams that
the Cowboys. This one is trending down. The Cowboys were laying three and the Rams come out and they beat up on the Seahawks and the Cowboys are currently laying one and the total has ticked up to forty nine. The Rams, as I mentioned, they're starting to peek a little bit here. The defense is playing out of its mind. Todd Gurley looks fresh. Robert Woods has finally gotten involved. The Cowboys, on the other hand, look awful. They're lifeless against both the Bills and the Bears. The defense is
playing down. Amari Cooper is clearly battling through injury. So how do you feel here about the Cowboys laying one with the total forty nine?
We talked about an interesting line move in that Bears Packers game. This was Cowboys minus four last week and now the Cowboys are plus one at home. Have two teams ping ponged more than the Rams and the Cowboys this season. Rams obviously coming off of a Super Bowl performance McVeigh the genius. They start off horrifically. Their offensive line kind of puts them in a horrific situation. Offense
can't get going. Cowboys light the world on fire to start the season and now have regressed now that they've actually played a couple of good teams. This line movement is kind of crazy to me. Uh, I have to take the Cowboys here. I like the Cowboys money line, if you're queasy about that. I think the Cowboys are a great teaser candidate, getting them up to plus seven at home. They've got the mini by this is the season on the line, and I'm still not bought in
to this Rams team. Their team is very obvious to figure out. Like I said, if you can get pressure on the quarterback, then you will have success against them. And I think Lawrence Quinn and the guys up front will be able to do enough to at least slow down this Rams offense. So I'm going to sell a peaking Ram stock and buy a plummeting Cowboys stock stocky stock low, give me the low stock here.
By the way, you made the good catch. I said it was the Cowboys laying one, which it was the last time I checked, like two hours ago, and it's Cowboys. You're right plus one now, So that is a giant, giant line move. I don't think I could bring myself to back the Cowboys at this point, but I do see this as kind of something where the Rams just that's a huge win over the Seahawks on Sunday Night football. It's obviously a little bit of a short week for them.
I think it's really tough to get up for this game at this point, now going into Dallas. So I think the Cowboys are the sharper side. I don't know if I'm really there to bet it, just because, oh my god, the Cowboys are just yea sucks, completely disinterested in winning football games. I think They're not gonna be able to run the ball as really as well as they need to. I think Jalen Ramsey can take out Cooper. So it's just a game where I think I'm going
to stay away. But you know the the you know, when it was the Cowboys laying four, I saw laying three when I first saw it. That's the spot where I was taking the rams and I was not hesitating at this point. Now that the Cowboys are getting one, the sharp side is the Cowboys. But I'm you're a braver.
Man than I.
I'm like the so thick I could pull the trigger on this team at this point. Let's move on to the Bills. At the Steelers, this line has also moved. I saw the look at it, Steelers laying one. It's now up to Steelers laying two and a half. The total and abysmally low thirty six and a half. I might like the under. I'm not even joking. The Bills finally lose one here, a tough game against Baltimore. They were in it right up until the end. Now they
have to travel to Pittsburgh. They're flex to Sunday Night Football. They take on a team that looks like it has absolutely no business being in the playoffs, but they continue to hold their own regardless of who they're playing. You can argue with Dot Hodges and the Steelers off. Maybe get James Connor back here. You can't argue with their defense, though, which has been absolutely elite over the last ten weeks or so. They win a close one against the Cardinals
in Arizona. How do you feel here about the Steelers at home Sunday Night football laying two and a half with the total of fifty six and a half.
Buffalo is only about two hundred miles from the Berg, so the mafia might be out. This is what ten years they were saying since last time the Bills were on Sunday Night Football. I don't know what to expect here. You talk about the total thirty six and a half, the range of outcomes here to me seems so narrow.
What I mean is that whoever wins this game is going to win this by such a small margin, and there will be so few points scored in this game that, honestly, I think my favorite thing to do in this game is tease the Bills up to eight and a half, because unless the apocalypse takes place, like, how often are the Steelers winning this game by more than eight and
a half points? These are two good defenses. I think I favor the Steelers a little bit more, but the Bills have an excellent run funnel, They do a terrific job defending the pass, and even if Connor comes back, I don't trust the Steelers to just line up and run the football. On the other side of the ball, Bills offense has been frisky. Josh Allens's highs have been very high, but the Steelers have a great pass rush and that's really helped out a not so talented secondary
make a lot of plays. So I like you, somehow can see myself taking me under on thirty six and a half, And if I like the under on such a low total, I have to love the Bills as a teaser candidate getting eight and a half.
I don't remember seeing a total this low, so I'm not going to go out there. I haven't been able to check yet. I didn't have a lot of time today but to check whether or not this is the lowest total of the season, because it strikes me that it is at thirty six and a half. But either way, yeah, I kind of lean towards the under. I don't really know if I'd be able to pull the trigger teaser Bills up two eight and a half. I completely agree.
It is very difficult to see any scenario where this game becomes, you know, a nine point game or anything like that. If I'm forced to choose a side right now, and it may be one where I won't be forced to do it, and I'll just do it because I like the side. I kind of like the Bills here. I've been fading the Bills a lot. I kind of have been reluctant to buy into them. The game against the Ravens, man they were close to tying that thing
up and pushing it to overtime. I really think that in the end, it's something where I think they're gonna win this game, and I think they can go in there and win this game. I think they're a better team than the Steelers. I get you know that the Steelers don't have much of a pass offense, so the fact that they funnel to the run doesn't really play in their favor. But I agree with you. I don't fully trust James Connor, even if he comes back anyway,
if not, it's any Snell. This is not something where I'm excited about the Steilers. So this may be one where I'm just gonna bite the bullet and take the Bills getting two and a half. But certainly you make a great point with teasing them up, because I cannot see the Steelers being able to beat them by that much under any plausable scenario. Let's get to our final game here, Colts at the Saints, slaying nine and a half. That's up from eight which I saw just yesterday, a
total of forty five and a half. I would not want to be the Colts right now. They're banged up with no t Y Hilton, who probably won't return for this one. They're now down Paris Campbell, there's no Eric Ebron, the magic looks to be running out, and now a game against the Saints in primetime in New Orleans. Awful loss. The Saints are dealing with some injuries to the defense, but they're obviously strong. The offense show that it's right there.
How do you feel here, Saints slaying nine and a half total at forty five and a half.
Yeah, referencing the banged up defense. Their rankins left the game with an ankle injury against the Niners, and Jared Cook suffered a concussion as well. How many times do we have to see the Saints do this at home before it becomes quality that we can assign to them with frequency. I think I have to like the Colts in this spot. I remember the first week of the season they were touchdown favorites against the Texans, nearly lost outright.
Last year, same spot to open the season, big favorites against the Bucks did lose outright.
The Saints are just not.
The team that we've been used to seeing over these last couple of years. Last week a total anomaly, scoring that many points, specifically against a good defense, a defense as good as San Francisco's. I don't trust the Saints to push the ball downfield, extend leeds. Alvin Kamara is somehow playing worse than Latavius Murray, Like every Kamara call was a negative outcome for the Saints last week, which is just astounding. So yeah, I trust Frank Reich, I
trust Jacoby Brissetts. I think the Colts can do enough, and worst case scenario, I think the back door will be open for this offense. Thing nine has to high for the Saints team.
So for me, it really does depend a lot on Rankins and somewhat Uncook as well, because I think their run defense is dramatically better when Rankins is in there, and if he's not there, then I think the Colts are going to be able to effectively run Marlon Mack, which is really all they want to do at this point, because you know, there's pretty much other than Zach Pascal there and you know Jack Doyle, you know Ibron is gone. There's nobody for Jacoby Brissett to throw the ball to
at this point. I don't see them being able to put up a lot of points or to keep it close so long as Rankins is in there. If he's out, yeah, this is a game I'm probably gonna stay away from. I'm not back in the Colts. The Saints are gonna be angry. Man. They are gonna come out there and there's gonna be a Kamara game where he's gonna go nuts. There just has to be. He hasn't really been playing all that bad. A lot of it has been the
lack of touchdowns. He played terribly this last game against the forty nine ers, But I do think at some point he's gonna go boom. I think they're angry. I think they need a win. I just you know, depending on the injury. It's a lot of points. But if Sheldon Ringkins plays, I think I'd probably take the Saints so long as we're under ten. I think the Colts are gonna be the sharper side. I think they're gonna
get the money. But for me, I'm okay laying the points because I do think this is gonna be a game where the Saints are gonna be angry and they're gonna take on the Colts. That's gonna do it. For today's show, Rich, it was really great having you back on. Remind everybody where they can find more of you in your work.
Yeah, you can check out the grid Iron Gamble podcast. Wherever you listen to podcasts, whether it be Apple, Stitcher, Spotify, and as always, you can follow us on Twitter at grid Iron Gamble. We tweet all our picks, we rib each other, and yeah, enjoy the last couple weeks of the season with us.
Thanks all right man, you enjoy the last couple of weeks as well. Let's go Jets on Thursday night, hopefully that you and I can both witness our boys put up a monster upset over there. Thanks again to the sponsor for today's show, bet MGM. Remember to download the bet MGM Sports app and the promo code Harris to get your risk free first waiter of up to five
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