Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place your bets. This b Joey paid Joe Pi Zapia, and it's time to look at the Week fourteen lines and the sides and see which games that we think are gonna go our way this week in the NFL. To help me do it, of course, is my boy Scott Bogman, the host of the College Football podcast right here on
Betting Pros, and Andrew Anderson. That's right, because it's all about the undersun We're gonna talk about some of the games that we like in Week fourteen before we get to all that. Guys, it's the holiday season, and you know what that means. Free stuff. So for a limited time, when you purchase any Fantasy Pros and Betting Pros Bundles subscription, we'll double the length of your subscription at no cost.
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to bettingpros dot com slash promo. That's Bettingpros dot com slash promo and treat yourself this holiday season and double your subscription for free to start winning more bets today. So, Boggs, as my buddy, as my pal, as my friend, can you give us the first pick of the week that you are high on in Week fourteen?
Yeah, give me Denver plus two and a half at the Chargers. And this for me is really that I hate the Chargers. I mean what they put together on offense recently has been bad. Over the last three games, they scored six ten twenty points. The Broncos defense is not good, but they have been winning close games. They beat the Packers by two, the Bills by two, the Vikings by one, and even in a loss last week against the Texans that came down to the last play
of the game. If singlely doesn't make that one of the best picks I've ever seen. That's a score and they win going away. Certain has only really gotten torched by Tyreek Hill, but who hasn't so Keenan Allen should be locked up.
I certain.
I mean, I don't know if anybody locks up Keenan Allen either, but if he does have a bad game, they don't have anything on offense because Eckler hasn't had room to run. He's look slow. I think the Chargers are one of the worst coach teams in the NFL. I have the Broncos sneaking this one out outright, so I just really hate what the Chargers are doing right now.
Me too, my friend. I already bet Denver plus one thirty over on Caesars on betting Pros on the money line. That's the best number you can get. And by the way, I still keep talking about this, it's available still, and it's better than it was even last week when I thought, hey, you know, if they beat the Texans, all of a sudden, this number really shrinks. Well, they didn't beat the Texans, they almost beat the Texans. But now it's plus three fifty for the Denver Broncos to make the playoffs. You
get that at bet MGM. You can get it at it's a plus three hundred over on DK so different sites having at different spots here, but the best number is at bet MGM right now. And they still play the Chargers twice. They play the Raiders one more time they play. I believe the Patriots are on their schedule too. They've they've got a really open path potentially to control their own destiny to get to double digit wins. So we are feeling Denver this week. Andrew Erickson, are you with us?
I do like Denver, but I do just prefer the total in this game. And you know, no surprises here under forty four points, not you, yes, me coming out strong with the undertakes. I get that they're playing in Los Angeles, a home field advantage that doesn't really exist. It's a dome, but there really haven't been that many shootouts in Los Angeles this year to between the Rams and the Chargers. When you just look at the Broncos defense,
how they've improved since the start of the season. Six of their last seven games have gone under the points total. The Chargers, oh my god, Chargers, nine of last ten games have all gone under again. They scored six points last week against the worst team in the NFL, worst than the NFL has scored six points. I think the Chargers are still getting credit for an offense that was supposed to be good like heading into the year, but
that has hardly been the case. So the fact that this number is not closer to like thirty nine to forty, which I think is where it should be just on what we've seen from these teams this year.
At forty four.
Points, I think that this is a really good value to take. The under last ten games for these two teams two and eight towards the under. I Russell Wilson's run for two hundred and few yards and seven of his last eight games, and they both have above above average red zone defenses. So all signs to me are pointing towards a blackluster game in the Chargers.
Blackluster game potentially. What do you make out of Brandon Staley's comments about shaking up the backfield a little bit like that's gonna make a difference somehow more Josh Kelly Carries is gonna be the difference maker for the Chargers.
Yeah, I think it was a really interesting comment that he brought up, but I almost feel like it's more of a hey, Austin Ecker, like you have to play better, Like it's really more of a shot at Eckler than just Okay, we're gonna give the like you're really gonna give the ball to Josh Kelly Isaiah Speller.
You're really good. You think that's gonna help.
Like Eckros obviously had not been playing great, but maybe this is just like, hey, I have to play better. And it is Denver who has been able to be beaten in the run this year, So maybe this is the last stand for Eckler to really help about his fantasy managers.
If you guys, if you guys like the way that Eckler's been running, wait till you see how slow.
Spiller is.
Bog in Week fourteen, what do you have for the people?
Give me the under forty on the Rams at Baltimore. Both of these teams have played more unders five and seven, both of them playing to the over. I think Baltimore being gassed up off the buy really can make some problems for the Rams offensive line, especially if Rob Havenstein has to miss this game because Joe Noteboom has been rough. The Ravens are still adjusting to life without Mark Andrews. They only put up twenty against the Chargers defense. That
was bad before the break. This one it really though, even all that stuff I just said, it's really about the nasty weather that is projected for this game. It's supposed to be rainy and windy for most of this game. I saw one meteorologists say that if this is just a little bit, if the system moved, it was a little bit faster than we think, we're gonna get big gusts constantly up to thirty miles forty miles per hour.
So nasty weather in this game. For you know, the rams work through the pass passing production goes down with wind. The Ravens are going to be able to run, for sure, but that bleeds the clock. So give me the under forty with some ugly weather. Wind and rain is bad for special teams as well. So I'm gonna I'm gonna take the under in this Ravens game and hope that the Ravens don't put all of it up by themselves.
Speaking of the running game for the Ravens, do you think Keaton Mitchell has taken over that backfield or do you think because of the weather both he and Edwards will work substantially in this contest? Yeah?
I think both of them will work.
But I think you know, they went to Mitchell last week or two weeks ago before the bye, and it worked. He had more snaps by like eleven than any of the other non fullbacks, and they have said they want to get him the ball more. He's the explosive playmaker on this team now that Zay Flowers is to catching footballs for whatever reason, he is their explosive play and Mark Andrews is gone, so they're missing a big piece of that. So there's just a lot of adjusting to
be made for missing pieces. For the Rams, potentially with Haven's sign, they got to get rid of that ball quicker. For Matt Safford, he's going to get murdered. And for the Ravens with no Mark Andrews, plus the weather, so there's just a lot of obstacles for both these offenses to overcome in my opinion, So I'm gonna take the under in this game.
All right, back to you, Undertaker, Do you have something different for us this time around? Erickson?
Yes, I have something fun is an over, guys, Because the Colts there are over saviors this season eight and four towards the over this year. One of the best teams towards the over and a team in a season where all we can get is unders, and we have stadiums that are literally the anti anti Corus field of the NFL. The Colts are saving us. So they pushed the Titans last week, another one of these teams that
always goes under. They went over against the Titans. Like if they can do that, they can get over against any team. So I like this spot here against the Cincinnati Bengals, even on the road. The Bengals defense is absolutely horrible. Six worth of points per game, thirty three yards allowed per game over the last three weeks, allowing over four hundred yards of offense per game. What Shane Steichen is doing with Garter Minshew and these Colts pieces,
I think is absolutely fascinating. This offense is cooking on all levels. They didn't have all their guys, Like I can't wait to see what's gonna be with Richardson and Jonathan Taylor healthy next year. But for now, Garter Minshew, Zach Moss, these guys are getting it done and I think it's going to continue against Cincinnati Bengals.
So I like the over overall in this game.
When you look at the Colts specifically, or excuse me, the Bengals for the last seven games hit the over. Their last five of six games have all past forty one and a half points. So that's what this line opened year. Forty one and a half, went down a little bit to forty and a half. Now it's back up to forty three and a half.
It's just the.
Colts are a team you want to bet the overs on. So and the Bengals showed me enough, maybe not to back them as I think there's some I think they're favorite now in some spots, enough to back me or back them as a favorite with Jake Browning, but enough to show, hey, this offense can score the points against the defense like the Colts that you know has a leaky secondary, So I like the over.
I hate when my secondary leaks. It's the worst box. It's the worst. It happens when you get older. You know, it's just the part of life. But I'll tell you this too, this is one of my favorite bets of the week too. I already put this on the over on my best Bets video here in the channel on YouTube, and if you haven't, go subscribe to the channel. Go
check that out. And of course drop your comments below any of the video because we're giving away free premium upgrades the Betting Pros when you comment and subscribe, We'll just keep giving them away. Every single week we're giving them away. And remember to ring that bell for notifications to let goes ding so you know if you're the big winner of this week's free giveaway of the Betting
Pros premium upgrade. And if you haven't already downloaded the Betting Pros app too, because on iOS you get three free days of premium when you download it, so you can see exactly the tools that we see when we're making our picks and going through everything. So check out the top ten video. Go bet the Over with me and Ericson because I can't. I can't pick a side of this game. Ericson, this is like a basically, it's
a pl plus one over at Caesars. It's a plus one and a half at Cincinnati over our FanDuel so Ibi Vegas is like, hey, go choose your adventure. But for me, I think the adventure is the over.
How could anyone know what the hell to expect from Jake Browning? He looks like a non NFL quarterback Tommy DeVito style one week and then he looks like Tom Brady on Monday Night Football. Who knows what to expect from that guy?
Right now?
It made me look like an idiot last week, and right now I hate everything University of Washington, So I hate.
Me man. I'm loving the Washington all right. Let's go to see about Miami. How much you love them this week? Box?
Look.
First of all, it's thirteen and a half. It's the biggest bread of the week. I understand people don't like laying this many points. But against the spread, Miami's eight and four while the Titans are five and seven. The Titans are also two and four against spread since well Levis took over. They beat Atlanta and Carolina straight up in those games they covered. They're not gonna beat Miami
straight up in this one. They couldn't win a close one against Indy at home last week, and they haven't covered this total in two of the last three weeks. They lost twenty to six was their loss of the Bucks thirty four to fourteen against the Jaguars. They are one in five against the spread on the road this season, and the one win coming against the Saints. And wink one.
The Dolphins are clicking on all cylinders. They just put up forty five points against Washington and over four hundred yards The week before on Black Friday they put up three hundred and ninety five and beat the Jets going away. I think the Titans are one of those teams that's on the same level as the Jets. They're just not that good. Their roster is bad. They're well coached, but the product on the field cannot stop this Miami team. I don't know if this spread is big enough at
thirteen and a half. I think Miami wins this one going away. I don't think it's close at all. Titans about to get really smoked. Tyreek Hill might have five hundred yards.
Woah. I like the sound of that.
Let's go.
So I assume you like the over for the Tyreek Hill props. I mean, look, I'm going.
To take all the overs for Tireek for the rest of the year.
I put a big chunk of money on him for Offensive Player of the Year and then it was a I think I got it an eight and a half to one at the time. So I am I'm loving life right now. I love with this tour. Just they say, healthy, Tyree, I'm looking out for you, brother. All right, let's go to the next one here on the slate for week fourteen, Erickson, what do you have?
Atlanta Falcons? Where are they playing at home? In Atlanta? They're playing at home, So we're gonna do it again. We're gonna go back despen Ritter at home. The line has already moved from minus two and a half Atlanta to now minus one because people don't believe he doesn't Ridter. They've seen him playquarterback, But have you seen him play quarterback at home? Guys, Like, that's the thing, that's the
key selling point here. The Dirty Birds are four and one at home with Dismon Ritter as their starting quarterback. They already beat the Buccaneers this year on the road. Doesn't Ritter turned the ball over three times in the red zone and they still won the game. More importantly, they rushed the ball effectively against a strong Tampa Bay run defense. Second most rushing yards the Bucks have allowed
were against the Atlanta Falcons. You know didn't play in that game, or I should say played on the final play of the game was b Jhon Robinson. This was the game that we were all over the receiving yardage props and then he didn't play like the entire game because of the Migraine. So they beat the Buccaneers. They ran all over the Buccaneers on the road without their best running back. They're at home. They have Bejon back. They're starting to ramp up his volume as they head
into the They're trying to make a playoff run. They're in the driver's seat to win the NSC South. So I think that the Atlanta Falcons, I'm just going to continue to backtis't ritter at home because this is where he plays better. He's more comfortable playing at home. And I think the Buccaneers are an overrated opponent. I don't think they should be getting as much credit as you know, close road dogs, and who knows if they'll even open up maybe as the favorite.
Maybe we see this line flip.
If it ain't broke, don't fix it, ericson. You've been doing it all year, so he just keep doing it. A little disappointing last week for Bej in terms of productivity, but in terms of volume, still going in the right direction consistently for the last three weeks.
Yeah, Box Ericson, why are you so mad when you're explaining this, uh, Atlanta minus one?
You seem so angry. You're like, you gotta take minus.
I think it's Adam. I think.
I see because two and a half.
I'm like, oh, this is great, like a great value, and that's none. The value's gone. It's like, oh, go.
On to the other directge Age, I saw it. I knew it was in that. I recognize it. All right, thank you, Ericson.
Going forward, we've all got feelings about this next game, So Boggs, why don't you kick us off with this one?
I mean we've already talked about it a little bit. How about the over in Detroit and Chicago? This one to me and piece of p and I and Erickson in our thread about the Lions last week have been complaining about this Lion secondary and has been playing absolutely putrid. That they let the Saints come back on them, and they ended up putting up twenty eight points. Uh Jordan Love carved them up to the tune of two sixty eight and three touchdowns. So Chargers put up a season
high thirty eight on them. The last time these two teams met and the last time last time these two teams met Detroit and Chicago, the score was thirty one to twenty six, with the Lions winning. In The Bears defense might be rested, but that's not gonna make the players, you know, very good just because the arrested. The Bears are still dead last in pass rush grade bottom twelve and coverage and rundy.
I like the over.
Even with this game being outdoors for the indoor cat as Joe likes to call him in Jared Goff, So, I just think this game goes over because the Lions secondary is playing terribly right now and the Bear secondary is bad. So I just think even outdoors, even it's just a little bit of weather, this game is going to sailway past this over all.
Right, So Boggs is looking for the over. He's pretty confident there ericson same game, What are you confident in?
I'm just confident the Bears.
You know, the Bears are one of these few teams that can actually cover the spread against the Lions. The Lions have been one of the teams that have been super profitable, but over the last couple of weeks they've you know, given given backers some sweats when it comes to lines futures three and three against the spread overall, and their last two covers have come by extremely slim margins, Like we got lucky last week that the Lions came out with the cover against the Saints because they only
are remote. They were rolling boxes messages to Chad Be like the Lions are gonna blow this, yeah. And when I looked at this line when it first open up, I was like, really, the Lion's are only like four and a half point favorites. They're playing the Bears, and they're like, Oh, it's outside in Chicago. This is a cold weather where Jared Goff's small hands are gonna get tight and is you gonna not know what to do
with them? And he's gonna throw interceptions? Like for me, if the Lions have been playing better up to this point, I would give them the benefit of the doubt. But the fact that I could not bring myself to bet on the Lions on the road, even though they are the better team, I just that's why I wanted to bet on the Bears, because I think that their defense actually played much better over the last couple of weeks. Last three home games, they've limited their opponents to under
two hundred and forty passing yards. Jared Goff didn't even throw it for that many yards when he faced the Bears in Detroit. You know he was held under tow hundred fifty passing yards. So look, justin fields doesn't cover the spread gainst many teams. He should have beaten the lines outright the last time, I think gets job done.
This time at home.
I'll take it a step further. Give me the Chicago Bears on the money line to win this game. Let's go, baby, I'm in. I keep watching the Lions give up points at an alarming rate last few weeks, and I mean.
I'll find someone that loves you. Like Joe Pisa hates Jared Goff outdoor.
Look man again, if it ain't broke, if it ain't broke, Bakers hates him outdoor. I mean like he's getting disrespected because they know the game's outside.
Yeah, I mean, like even even to that point, like right now, when you look at the money line, you're getting it at a pretty good spot on the plus side, Like why not just go for it here? Why not go forher broke? The best place you can get it right now is Chicago on plus one sixty over a points bet. I saw it at one fifty in a
couple other spots, but I'm betting Broser. Now you can get in a points bet at plus one sixty, So take advantage of that because if this is close, and I keep saying, you know, you guys, you think it's gonna be close enough obviously there Bogs, you think it's gonna be an over that means anything can happen, And I just think it's very important to acknowledge that maybe right now Detroit is hitting a weird patch where they've got to kind of, you know, reconfigure itself a little bit.
But Davis Well depends only they have not played well. And then on top of that, I feel like the Bears are starting to play better. And I'm just saying the Bears are great, But what I'm saying is the Bears and Justin Fields all kind of know they're all playing for their future in Chicago, and for whatever that's worth, this is an evaluation period and I'm fascinating to see if we get a little of Roshawn Johnson in this
game too. Coming off the buy, I'm I think the Bears have a real shot and I like the Yeah, the hook Horns, Baby, I think they have a real shot to win this game outright, So give me the plus money on that side. I want to make some money on the Chicago Bears this week. Again, things I don't say very often this year, but I'm gonna say it here. All right, Bobs, let's close things out here. Give me one more game that you're high on for Week fourteen.
How about another road favorite here.
Let's take the Packers minus six and a half at the Giants. And this one is about the heater that Jordan Love is on. I talked all the smack about Jordan Love. I watched him for like five straight weeks, and I go, he ain't it. This is not the guy. And then the Steelers played Jordan Love and the Packers and he looked good.
He made some really good throws.
In that game, and I was like, Okay, maybe he's a little better than I thought, or at least maybe he's coming around now. And in that game he is twenty of twenty six two hundred twenty eight yards in a touchdown fine line, but he made some big throws. Then against the Chargers, it's the Chargers twenty seven and forty three, twenty two and two, he had two sixty eight and three versus Detroit, and then against a good
Chiefs defense last week. He won them that game him in the refs two hundred and sixty seven and three. And I understand the Giants won two in a row before the bye week, but de Vito is still there.
I don't trust him at all.
The Packers defense is middling, but they're slightly above average on almost all PFF grades, and they're on a nice little winning streak here three in a row.
The Giants still rank.
Last or close in pretty much every offensive category. And I don't know that a bye week is going to be a savior for a team like the Giants. I just may they play a little bit better, But I just think the Packers run away with this one at the end.
So the Giants are a bad team.
The Packers are on a nice winning streak, So I just I'll lay the points and take the Packers, even on the road.
And the Packers have been getting to Breshre on the quarterback lately too, which is a big difference maker for them. Now I'm curious, you know, with the Watson injury, you know how that affects love. But look, you can't deny the last three games box eight touchdowns, no picks. I mean that's the special sauce right there. If you not turn the on a heater playing well, yeah, Erickson, give me one more big deal. You're in on four week fourteen, and it's another game in New York or New Jersey.
Really, yeah, it's the other game that's playing in New Jersey because we get we get so much New Jersey action. It's absolutely great. Houston and the Jets. I'm gonna go with the under thirty three and a half points. I teased it earlier, but MetLife Stadium is the Anti Courus field of the NFL too, and ten towards the over. There have been two overs and what have happened on Black Friday? Because there were two pick sixes? Like that's what we're.
Doing, Yard, don't forget, never forgetail Mary.
Nonetheless, regardless Hail Mary picked six.
It happens all the time outside of Maddon, right, yeah.
Yeah, the Bogmin's done it to me, I'm sure more than once on that.
So we know that the Jets aren't going to score a lot of points. Zack Wilson is going to start this game. Six of the Jets last seven games have gone under the projected points total. They're starting Zach Wilson. The line move from five and a half to three and a half because people are backing Zach Wilson.
I guess I won't be one of those people.
And when it comes to the Houston side, because that's the concern of betting the under in this game.
Oh what a CJ. Stroud balls out like we've seen him do well. CJ.
Shroud's passing yards have decreased in five straight games. He just lost Tank Dell, who had been his number one wide receiver. I mean, look at how you attack this Jets defense. They're a team that teams want to run the football on. They know that the weaker part of their defense is their in tier defensive line not attacking these strong cornerbacks or their secondary. And when Houston has played bad run defenses, they have attacked it through the
run game. Posting pass rate overexpects in terms of zero percent, minus two, minus five and minus ten percent. So I think that with their healthy running backs between Damian Pierce and Devin Singletary, I think the Texas will game plan to like Hey, we're gonna try to run the ball, attack the weakness of this defense like a smart team would.
But that doesn't necessarily translate to them lighting up the scoreboard because they know the Jets aren't going to score more than ten points on their side, so they don't necessarily need to be super aggressive attacking downfield.
They can grind out a win here on the road, come away.
With the victory, and I think it's gonna be under three to three and a half points altogether.
So not a lot of what you did go ahead. You didn't even mention rain and wind yep. Yeah, in the forecast for this game too.
So do you guys not have a lot of confidence in, you know, the the return of Zach Wilson, the triumphant return, just like the playing hard to get Zach Wilson. Yeah, It's like, I don't know if I want to be the starting quarterback anymore. Maybe I don't. Maybe I want to go do something else with my life. I don't know, you know, maybe start a crochet business or something. Who knows what. Zach Wilson maybe's gonna open up a bar or something like that. I don't know. I don't know
what he might do. Uh, here's a question for you guys. Have the Jets quit, Like, do you think this is like this is done? Have they It's like he is dead inside in every single I don't know he does.
I mean, he is miserable and it's hard not to be. But I don't think the defense hasn't quit. I don't think. I think they get gassed at the end of games. You know, they're on the field too much because the offense is three and out, punt, three and out, punt, three and out punt. It is just gross on offense. So, uh, they have good pieces, they have good weapons, they have no line, no quarterback.
You can't win like that.
So even if your defense is how good it is, it is a they have a super Bowl caliber defense and just nothing on offense. So I don't think they've quit, But I think they get gassed at the end of games. I think once we see them get blown out in like a thirty five to three or something, that's when you know it's a it's a rap.
So and that maybe that's coming this week. We'll see.
Well see all right, just a recap what the boys are in on this week. Boggs is in the two and a half for the Denver Broncos at the Chargers. Ericson's in the under for that same game, the Rams and Baltimore under for Bogman at forty. You've got Bogs also in on Miami covering that thirteen and a half against Tennessee. He likes the over in Chicago Detroit and the Green Bay six and a half against the Giants.
Ericson's also in on indecency forty three and a half over Atlanta minus one Bears plus three and a half. I like the money line because I like to live dangerously. That's what Uncle Joey likes to do. And Houston and Jets under thirty three and a half, want want wah. That's what happens when you get the kind of quarterback play that you're getting crazy to think about some of the quarterbacks we're getting this weekend too, if you're looking
up and down the slate. So maybe, just maybe, unders yet again will be the theme of Week fourteen, just like it was thirteen and twelve and some other weeks. We'll see how things go.
We need some new quarterbacks in the NFL. Joe, Let's get ready for that.
Draft, you know, Trevor Lawrence did do some limited practicing today. We'll see what happens. Although I would not put him out there with Miles Garrett Chase, and I think that's a terrible idea. I think you have to play the long game. If you're in the Jacksonville Jaguars here, be smart. But we'll see what they do at the end of the day. We want to hear from you though. Drop
your comments below in the YouTube channel. You just might win a one year free premium upgrade to Betting Pros, but we'd like to hear what you're in on, so give us your picks to you. We're all part of a community. Download the Betting Pros app if you haven't already, and don't forget make your picks count even if you're not betting. If you if betting's not even the legal in your state, go check out the Betting proscontest bettingpros
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