Hey everyone, Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL Podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harrison. You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Adi. It is time for our early look at next week's lines, and with me to break it all down is Rob Pizzola, a pro sports better.
Rob. How's it going, man?
It's going well.
Interesting time of year now, obviously with everything getting into full swing. So this is one of my favorite times a year as a sports better.
Yeah, me too.
This is a really good time overall. And you know, I'm a big fan of Thanksgiving. I feel like, given my profession, my family has become pretty accustomed to me being glued to the TV throughout Thanksgiving, so it's gonna be pretty fun. But of course, you know, we've got the three Thursday games here, a rarity for the season, so we've got a lot to look into now. Rob and I are going to go through each game on the week thirteenth slate, and we'll be using the consensus
odds over at bettingpros dot com. Those are the aggregate odds that you're gonna find from a bunch of different sportsbooks. Now, the Lions are gonna move as bets come in. Odds makers are going to adjust, so pay close attention in case, like us, you particularly like or do not like any given line. All right, rob let's dive in here with the Thanksgiving games, and we'll start, as always with the Lions game, the first game of the week, the Bears
visiting the Lions. The current odds listed on our consensus odds are the Bears laying two and the over under here at thirty nine. Now that has dropped a bit from the look aheadline of forty one.
It's hard to back the Bears.
Lately, but they do beat the Giants. Mitchell Trubisky looks quasi competent. The defense still looks strong, though not quite as dominant as they did last year. Meanwhile, the Lions are still rolling with Jeff Driscoll. They lose to the hapless Redskins. They may have lost Snax Harrison in this game. I'm not sure of the extent of the injury. But it's Thanksgiving, their home. So how do you feel about the Bears laying two and the over under at thirty nine?
So definitely the Bears are going to get a lot of Thanksgiving Day action here, I think, both by the general public and by professionals, and mainly that's because of the Lions injury report. So Jeff Driscoll limited in practice today because of a hamstring injury. There's a very realistic possibility that they're going to have to go to the third string quarterback, who is someone I've never heard of in my life. I believe his name is David Brow
or something along. I don't even remember his name, to be completely honest with you. Was a backup at college, was the fourth stringer to start the season for the Cleveland Browns. So because of that, I just don't see much anyone willing to really back the lines in this situation. I think the number will continue to climb, so get in early on the Bears. And it's not just the
quarterback position for the Lions. If you look at the early injury report, it is a complete disaster for them with a number of players either limited in practice today or not practicing whatsoever. So definitely the Bear is going to get a ton of action. I could see this even going above three up to three and a half. It's very very rare to see something move that much, and through the key number of three, especially when they
were down around minus one earlier today. But certainly, I think there's just going to be a lack of resistance for all the Bears money that's coming in.
Do you think that any because again I saw the limited practice reports for most of them, and again Dressco Driscoll practiced, but he was limited with a hamstring injury.
I mean, do you.
Think though that they're just kind of taking it easy here because I didn't feel like they came out of that game with being like, oh man, they're totally banged up. I don't know how they're going to be able to turn around. I didn't even know that Driscoll was injured until I saw the practice report at all. Do you think that this is something where it could legitimately put
their playing time in jeopardy? So, I mean, I know you're obviously not an inside or anything like that, but if you do like the Bears, this is something then that you would take into consideration because you do think there's a legitimate chance, essentially based on the practice reports, that they could be significantly limited.
Yeah, I think at this point. I mean, it's always a judgment call in the NFL, right, I mean when you're betting earlier. Looking at the early board, you're not going to get the true scope of things. And sometimes things are going to work in your favor, and sometimes
things are going to work against you. You take the Eagles, for example, last week, who were expected to have potentially Jordan Howard back and al shonn Jeffery back in the lineup, and then Sunday morning comes and they're not playing, and that significantly effects the handicap of the game altogether. So you have to use reason. But typically when players are limited in practice, especially on a short week, it doesn't bode well. And some of these guys not practicing altogether
is a complete problem for them. Looks like they're gonna have cluster injuries in the secondary. I think the Detroit Lions are a complete mess this week. And what makes it even more difficult is, obviously, like I said, preparing with only three days, trying to come up with a game plan for a quarterback who's never expected to see time whatsoever against a very good defense. I'm just struggling to see how the Lions compete in this game unless the Bears handed to them, and the Bears are fully
capable of doing that. I mean, they run a horrible offense, and they can definitely throw away the game with some turnovers. But certainly I just see, like I said, there's gonna be there's probably gonna be no resistance at this number and just money pouring in on the Bears to the point where the oddsmakers are going to have to really raise this number up.
Yeah.
No, look, I love the Bears, Certainly, the d anything less than the key number of three, it's just really difficult to see a scenario again unless the Bear is essentially handed to him, and we know Mitchell Trubisky is more than capable of doing that. But unless they really handed to him, it's a little difficult to see the Lions.
Coming in on top.
So anything under the key number, I agree, if you like it right now, it's probably a good idea to get in. Let's move on to the Bills at the Cowboys. Cowboys here laying seven and the over under at forty four and a half. Look, headline was seven and a half, so it has ticked down a little bit to the key number of seven, but not significantly. The Bills get back on track here at home against the Broncos with
a strong showing particularly defensively. But now they go on the road to take on what is essentially a desperate Cowboys team that lost an ugly game against the Pats where they really couldn't do much offensively, not entirely their fault, of course, the Pats are a great defense, and the weather was abysmal. But how do you feel here the Cowboys laying seven at home on Thanksgiving with the over under forty four and a half.
I think the likely you'll get market support on the Cowboys and probably on the over in this game as well. The Bills are eight and three by record, but a lot of the advanced metrics are not going to be appealing for them, especially if those who are handicapping using DVOA. Where the Bills are twenty fifth this year the Cowboys fourth. Now, I don't know if that money's gonna come right away.
I think potentially, if you're a shark better you'd much rather get the Cowboys at six and a half than seven. But ultimately I just see this closing at seven or higher. I don't think there's gonna be a ton of sharp support on the Bills in terms of the total Dallas' offense is really good.
Their defense is.
Not and forty four and a half right now as the consensus total in this game. I would probably see some support coming in on the over in this game, even up to forty five forty five and a half, definitely not down below forty four, which is a key number in the NFL. So I think that that's the way it's gonna head. I'm not sure if I'm going to be involved in this game altogether, but I do think I expect that the sharp money will be on the Cowboys in the over.
Here.
Yeah, I don't have a strong feel necessarily for the line. I mean, I think at seven is about right. I agree with you though that the total. You know, I feel like the over is gonna get the majority of the bets. I think I'll probably be in on that as well. I mean, I feel like in the end, given unless Mari Cooper is significantly limited, Obviously he's been battling that knee injury, and he was on the sidelines quite a bit during that game against the Patriots, despite
the fact that it was closed. So if he is hampered and it's a Thursday game, then that does change things. But assuming that he's a full go, and he practices in full this week and he's ready to go. I do think that this is going to be a little bit of a get right game, even though the Bills have a very strong defense. Of course, they're vulnerable against the run, so you'll see a lot of Ezekiel Elliott that could you lean towards the under considering they want to.
Run the ball.
But I feel like this is a little bit going to be a get right game here. But the Cowboys offense and the Bills can score. As much as Josh Allen, you know, isn't the most accurate quarterback in the league, he's certainly able to move the ball pretty effectively both on the ground, and John Brown is having a great season, so I do think that there will be points score. So I agree that money and sharp betters will probably
hit the over. Let's move on to these Saints at the Falcons the night game on Thanksgiving, Saint Sierra laying six and a half with the over under at fifty two weeks ago. Look, the Falcons really manhandled the Saints in New Orleans, but the Saints here are obviously heavily favored. They're coming off that big win against the Panthers with the last second field go. Meanwhile, the Falcons, who had looked outstanding the past two weeks, particularly their defense, come
back down to earth against the Bucks. The offense looks completely out of sync. Julio Jones gets banged up. He's listed as it did not practice today. Again, I take it a little bit with a grain of salt on these Monday practices on a short week, because I think they're just being careful. But he is listed as it did not practice, and again he was in and out of that game with the shoulder injury. So how do you feel here? Saints on the road laying six and a half with an over under of fifty.
I'm not high on the Falcons this year. I've been betting against them quite a bit. I'm also not high on the Saints. But really, I think the Falcons a lot of the yardage that they've put up this year has been in garbage time, and that's kind of inflated their yardage numbers and their yards for play numbers when they've been trailing for a lot of the season. With that said, I do expect that eventually we're going to see some market support on Atlanta just because they played
the Saints so tough couple of weeks ago. But ultimately I think that move is gonna come late, because when you think about this, this is the third game on Thanksgiving Day slate. The reality is the public betters are gonna see New Orleans minus six and a half. They're gonna think that that's free money, and there's just gonna be a ton of money on.
The Saints regardless.
Either it's the chase game of the day where people have lost earlier on in the first couple of games and now they're kind of doubling up on the Saints, or it's the opposite, where they've won earlier in the day and they feel comfortable to put their bets on the Saints. So there's gonna be large handle on this game. If you're a sharp better, why bet the Falcons early now knowing that there's gonna be a ton of money coming in.
On the Saints regardless.
So I think ultimately, closer to game time, you'll see some money come in on the Falcons. Potentially we might see this number get up to seven seven and a half before you see some resistance there. I don't think I will be involved. I mean seven and a half. I'd certainly consider the Falcons at home, especially, like I said, with the way that they played the Saints tough a couple of weeks ago.
That defense really showed up to.
Play in that game. But aside from that, it's not a game that I love. Definitely, sports books will be cheering for the Falcons outright win because the Saints will probably be involved on every single teaser imaginable this weekend as well, So huge liability probably building for books on the Saints.
Yeah, how do you feel?
How do you think about that when books are I mean, you know what's going to happen on this game, right, Despite the fact that the Falcons beat up on the Saints two weeks ago, the public this just screams when you're under a touchdown, It screams the public to back the Saints. Do you consider that at all when you're thinking about a line and saying like it really seems like the books are sort of inviting the public to go here and they're probably going to be on the
hook for a Falcons. You know, if the Falcons fail to cover, I mean, does that factor into your equation as to who you're going to back? Each and every week or does that something that you have your model and that's all there is.
I don't factor in public bets.
I think there's a little bit of a misperception with the whole fade the public thing, And I mean people.
Are always like the books.
The books win money, so if you're just on the same side of the books, you're going to win money over time. But there's a number of fallacies or problems with that line of thinking. The first one is that the books are making the majority of their money off of parlays and teaser bets, not necessarily straight bets, so the hold on straight bets is significantly lower than that
of parlays and teasers. Then, on top of that, the books charge a big When you're betting the same size side as a book, you're paying a vig whereas they're charging the bet or the opposite. So I'm not a big believer in the fade the public strategy. I don't think books are typically setting the public up for some type of bet or anything like that. I think in this scenario it's pretty simple to me. They've put out a line that will probably see the public bet one way,
sharp's bet the other way. It kind of counters a little bit, but ultimately it's not a big factor in my handicapping, because I mean, the reality is the public still does get games right. And if you're gonna continuously just ignore your opinion on a game because other people like it as well, I think you're doing yourself at the service.
Yeah, I think that's a great point. And you know, part of the thing I also think about is that I feel like there are times really where the books don't mind taking a side, and I think that that's fine. I mean, they're not always going to be right, and I think it's fine if they're not just looking to balance it out, if they know they're going to be heavy on the Saints and they're willing to take that risk, and I think sometimes that's what's gonna happen.
So I agree, you know, I don't.
I don't always feel comfortable necessarily when the vast majority of you know, it's something like you know, let's say seventy percent or above, are with the public. It does make me a little queasy, and it at least makes me rethink how I'm looking at the game. But I like the insight into not letting it really control your decisions. Let's move on here to the Eagles at the Dolphins. The Eagles here currently laying nine and the over under
at forty six. The Eagles, as you mentioned earlier, they're just decimated offensively, missing a ton of skilled players, Jordan Howard, Alston, Jeffrey Nelson, Agalore, injuries up and down the offensive line. Carson Wentz, you know, is banged up, apparently he's going to play in this game. And then they're the Dolphins. You've got Ryan Fitzpatrick, You've got Devontai Parker, and that's pretty much it. So how do you feel here about
the Eagles. It's big number here, laying nine over underd forty sive in Miami.
I think ultimately this is going to come down to the Eagles injury report, because at the end of the day, if you do have a somewhat healthy Eagles team, I know they're only five and six on the year. I know Carson Wentz hasn't looked good, but they're still significantly more talented than the Miami Dolphins, who really don't do anything well. So ultimately, this is one of those where I would just advise waiting to see what happens with the Eagles injury report. I certainly wouldn't want to back
the Dolphins personally. I sort of talked about this on the periscope that I do on my Twitter each week. But the Dolphins had these I would call them regular prices early in the year. I mean, they were touchdown underdog to Baltimore. There were some games where the spreads were realistic, and then they weren't covering. I think it was four straight games to start the year where they
couldn't cover spread. All of a sudden, you got these massive inflated numbers seventeen points, twenty twenty one points, and the Dolphins covered a string of games in a row. And now we're back down into what I would call the reasonable range. And I don't want to back the Dolphins at what I consider to be a somewhat reasonable price. In order to back Miami, I need it to be an obscene number because this is a really bad football team. So for me, it's ultimately gonna be Eagles or nothing.
I still do think that, I mean, the Eagles are better than a five and sixteen.
They're tenth in Dvoway.
They just haven't been able to put it together this year offensively, and defensively in the same game. But certainly if they get some weapons back, especially Ashon Jeffrey, would be a really nice one for them to actually have a number one receiver. I could see some market support on the Eagles here in this number going up even further. But I ultimately do think that this game and where this line moves is going to be dictated by who is playing for the Philadelphia Eagles on sie.
So let's say that the reports for the Eagles. By the way, I do want to mention I neglected to give out Rob's Twitter handle at the beginning, He's at Rob Pizzela at his name. Let's say that the injury reports are great for the Eagles, right, Everybody certainly is coming back Lane Johnson, Alshon Jeffrey Nels, Nageler, Jordan Howard and everything like that. Where would you expect this line necessarily to move throughout the week.
I think you'd see a creep above ten, I mean ten and a half. You might start to see a little bit of buyback on the Dolphins. I'm not quite sure on that, but I think it could get above ten depending on the injury status for the Eagles.
All right, let's move on to the next game here, Jets at the Bengals. Jets here are laying it's now down to three and a half. It was legitimately four when I checked five seconds before we started recording, and the over unders at forty one. And I'm sure part of the reason that it is on its way down is that the Bengals came out today and said that they are going back to Andy Dalton as opposed to Ryan Finley. Certainly that makes them a stronger team if
you've seen Finley play lately. The Jets, though they continue to roll. They look solid offensively so long as they can face a team without a pass rush, which is kind of what the Bengals have. So how do you feel here about the Jets laying three and a half the over under at forty one.
Yeah, it's really tough with the Jets, obviously for the reasons that you just mentioned. They're playing much much better as of late, but they really haven't played anyone. It's been cupcakes for them for a while now, with the Giants, the Redskins. Now, I don't want to call the Raiders a cupcake, but not the greatest scheduling spot for the Raiders with the early start on the East Coast having to play the Chiefs in the next week. I mean, the Raiders pulled a car in the third quarter of
that game. That tells you all you need to know about how much they're preparing for the Chiefs coming up this week as well. But ultimately, I do think you're going to see a couple of things here. We saw a little bit already, as you mentioned, but I think more money will come in on the Bengals. I think more money will come in on the over in this game, barring some really bad weather in Cincinnati. And that's actually
something I should point out. Typically this point of the year, totals in half of these games are going to be influenced by weather. If it's windy in these East Coast cold places, you're going to see the totals come down in these games, regardless of the matchup, just because we know that wind is such a factor in games. Ultimately, if you see clearer conditions and games not being super cold, you probably see them go up. It just really has an influence later on in the year as we go on.
But I do see a bigger than a half point difference between Finley and Dalton and I think the market will see that as well. So I think this number probably comes down to plus three. I think this total probably on the rise to closer to forty two forty two and a half, again, barring some really bad weather in Cincinnati. I'm not saying I love either, but I think that's what the market will support.
Yeah, I would go with the over on this. I think both teams are going to be able to move the ball fairly effectively.
Again, you know, the Jets, they've been able to move.
The ball for the majority of the year. Again, it's largely dependent on the pass rush. It's why the Raiders laying three was a little bit surprising when you looked on the surface. But you know, they're the type of team that you know their defense had been playing better, but they certainly don't have a strong pass rush that fits right into the Jets hands. And again, the Jets
defense is largely better against the run. That's where primarily the Raiders like to live their life through Josh Jacobs here and again, the Bengals, they aren't great, but Dalton certainly adds a bit of a dimension that they have been missing in the past couple of games.
So I agree.
I think the over is going to tick up. If you like it, you should probably get it now. And I could see also the spread continuing to trickle down as the market reacts to Dalton coming back. Now, before we move on, I want to tell everyone about the sponsor of today's show. Bet MGM. Long gone or the days of needing to run to the counter and place your bet. With the bet mgm Sports app, you can place a bet right from your phone. Here's all you
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hundred gambler. All right, let's move on here to the Titans at the Colts. Here are laying three with the over under at forty three. The Colts is a tough one on Thursday to the Texans. They do get that mini by of course, they're still down Marlon Mack. He's already been declared out for this game. The Titans look. They continue to look extremely strong offensively now that Ryan Tannehill is under center and Derrick Henry gets rolling in
this cold weather games as he often does. They've got some injuries to their secondary but overall their defenses playing well. So how do you feel here in the divisional game, Colts laying three over under at forty three.
I don't think we're going to see much movement on the side, to be honest with you, I think there's a pretty large contingent of the population that probably views these teams as equal teams. With that said, the Titans have been drawing some money lately. They end up closing four and a half point favorites over Jacksonville with a lot of late money coming in on that game last week. I think probably what you'll see is the total being
bet up. That's been a consistent trend now for Titans games for the most part, and for the reason that you just mentioned. I'm not a Ryan Tannehill fan, but you can't argue with what he's done in the limited sample so far. Now. Granted there's been some bad defenses in that spot, but ultimately he's been able to move this offense. He's gotten their success rates up to a respectable rate. Yards per play way up for the Titans offense as well. So forty three seems like a short number.
I think this will be bet up probably to forty four, So I think you'll see some money on the over. In terms of side I think you're more likely to see the market back the Colts because of that mini bye week, because the Titans are coming off will blow out win. I think potentially you could see some Colts market support, but probably not too much. Maybe up to minus three, minus one to twenty something along those lines. I personally like the over in this game, just even
talking and talking myself into it now. I do like this Titans offense quite a bit. I think he can move the ball on this defense as well. So forty three seems like a short number in good conditions in Indianapolis at Lucas Oil.
Yeah, and the Lookouad line was forty two, so it's already trending up with good reason. As we mentioned with Tanheill, this strikes me as a game that's just not going to be heavily bet. There just doesn't seem like an obvious side here. It seems like a pretty even matchup. That's why you know, a divisional game with the Colts at home laying three, I don't see much movement, sort of exactly what you said. I don't see that this
line is going to move. I'll be shocked if it ends at anywhere other than minus three unless people are really you know, because of how dominant the Titans looked against the Jaguars and how good Ryan Tannel looked and Derek Henry, unless they're sort of buying into that. I would really expect this to be a not particularly heavily bet game, at least on the spread. But I agree with you that the over under is probably going to
tick up, and I do as well. Kind of like it certainly at forty two at the look headline, but even at forty three, because I feel like both teams are going to look to establish themselves offensively in this one. Let's move on to the Browns at the Steelers. Browns here or laying one. The look aheadline was Steelers laying one and a half, so things have certainly changed there. The over under at forty the Steelers continued to really do nothing offensively. Duck Hodges manages to get them a win,
but you know, they're probably still without James Connor. They're probably still withou ju Juie Smith Schuster, who's battling both the concussion and the knee injury. Meanwhile, the Browns continue to roll over Miami. The offense looks much stronger now that they've added Kareem Hunt. When they have the two back sets, it's really making things work there. Darvis Landry playing extremely well. There's some bad blood the team's met
a couple of weeks ago. You've got the whole Miles Garrett thing hanging over their head, and again Miles Garrett being out, you know is does affect the Browns defense, even though you didn't really see it against Miami for obvious reasons. So how do you feel here a divisional game in Pittsburgh, Browns laying one with the total at forty.
Yeah, you're certainly going to get that revenge game narrative for the Steelers, obviously with what transpired a couple of weeks ago. What I'm looking for here is the status of Olivia Vernon on the Browns defensive line, because with him out, they're missing both of their best edge rushers and Miles Garrett and Olivia Vernon, so that could certainly
give I'm assuming Hodges this week. I'd be surprised if they went back to but I'm assuming Hodges will have some time in the pocket, and I think he's capable. I think he's a better quarterback than Kyle Mason.
Rudolph.
I'd certainly be more interested in backing the Pittsburgh Steelers with Hodges under center. Personally, I do think you're going to see some market support for the Steelers at some point. I think they'll close a favorite. Their numbers are pretty good defensively this season. There's probably not much separating these
two teams. And when you consider that the Browns ended up closing around a three point favorite against the Steelers only a couple weeks ago, now, all of a sudden our laying points on the road at Pittsburgh, I think that's probably too much of a reversal, just based off of Cleveland's game against Miami, who's really just a deplorable football team. So I think you're gonna get some support for the Steelers here, And personally I do like the Steelers,
but I would not want to be backing Rudolph. I'd certainly be more likely to bet Pittsburgh with Hodges under center.
Yeah, I can't imagine that it's going to be Rudolph coming in. Just you know, again, Hodges didn't do all that much. It was really one seventy nine yard catch and run by James Washington. But certainly the offs looked a little more alive with him under center. And I
agree with you here. I think the public is probably going to back the Browns in this game, you know, laying one, and even if that creeps up, you know, I'm sure it won't get the three or anything like that, but even as it creeps up, but I agree, I kind of like the Steelers here playing at home. You know, probably you know there's some bad blood here going on, but I agree the Steelers sort of. You know, Look,
I don't know. I don't think Mike Tomlin is the greatest coach in the world, but he certainly is able to get his guys up when it looks like they should just be completely fading away. And this is exactly a type of game where you think they're just going to come out and come out flat. But I think the defense is going to come out strong. I think they'll do enough offensively to be able to move the ball. So I do like them getting points certainly, and it's probably going to be a game that I'll be in
on coming in. Let's move on to the Redskins at the Panthers. Panthers here currently laying ten in the over under at thirty nine and a half. Redskins come off that big win against the Lions, but you know, they do not look good offensively. They get a special team's touchdown and all field goals. Dwayne Haskins really probably is not ready to be an NFL quarterback, but I don't begrudge the Redskins for throwing him out there at this point. Give them the last season.
Panthers.
Meanwhile, they show some life offensively, certainly against the Saints, but they lose that heartbreaker game after Joey Side misses the field goal. They are desperate for a win here returning home. How do you feel it's a big number? Panthers laying ten with a total low at thirty nine and a half.
I honestly have zero feel on this game, whatsoever sider total, It's really difficult to obviously back the Redskins in any capacity, and like you mentioned, you know they're coming off a win. They got a special team's touchdown in that game. Dwayne Haskins is not a pro quarterback right now. He's pretty easily far and away the worst quarterback in the league. I mean, he misses very routine throws. He just is horrible decision making all together. So Washington very similarly to Miami.
If I'm going to back them, I want it to be an obscene amount of points. Now, some might argue the Panthers is double digit favorites. I mean, the Panthers are twenty seventh in DVOA this year. It's a pretty bad number for a team that's laying ten points. They're coming off an emotional loss against the Saints. They put a lot of effort in that game. Could conceivably be a flat spot for them. But I just can't will myself to bet Washington in any way because the offense
is so so bad. It's one of these games that Carolina can sleepwalk for an entire half or even three quarters and still manage to put together one good quarter and cover the spreads. So not a game I'll be
involved with on side or total. I actually really have no idea where the market's going to go with this one either, because I just think that there's an extreme reluctancy to back Washington, and we saw it this past weekend where actually money came in on Jeff driscoll as a three and a half point road favorite, brought that number up to four at the Redskins, So really no one willing to support.
Washington right now.
I mean, I don't blame them, but I don't think this is a week where people aren't going to jump on the bad way.
No for sure.
I mean the look aat line was nine and a half. It's already moved up a little bit to ten. I can't imagine that there's going to be money on the Redskins. You know, I don't really know. I kind of want to like the Panthers, but ten is just such a huge number. Again, you know, I feel like the only way I would be worried really coming to the Panthers is if they had either one last game or been on a winning streak, and this could be a game that they just look past. But at this point, they're
pretty desperate. I think they're gonna come out firing, both offensively and defensively. But at ten, that's just a number that I really don't feel comfortable with. Certainly not the Redskins, but at this point with the Panthers, with the way they've sort of been unable to close the door, it's a little difficult for me to get behind them. Let's move on to the Packers at the Giants. Packers here are laying six, which is down from a look aheadline of seven and a half. The over under at forty
six and a half. Packers just embarrassed on Sunday night against the forty nine Ers. They lose their tackle Brian Blaga. I don't think it's a serious injury, but I doubt he'll play this week. They fall into a tie. I believe that the Vikings, although I think they own the tiebreaker. Meanwhile, the Giants are what they are. They put up a fight against the Bears, but they're really just not a very good football team. Saquon Barkley has not looked completely healthy.
They're not showing up either offensively or defensively. I believe Golden Tate was placed in the concussion protocol, so there are a lot of injury concerns going on here. How do you feel about the Packers on the road laying six with a total of forty six and a half.
Yeah, I think the Packers are going to be one of those sides that's both a square and a sharp side this week. If I'm being honest, I think probably up to seven. You'll see support on the Packers at minus six and potentially minus six and a half. I mean, this is one of those get right spots for them, so to speak, embarrassed in prime time and now they're going to take out the frustration on the Giants, and that's going to be the narrative I think from the public.
But just in general, from a sharp perspective, or if you're just backing the game on numbers, the Giants don't really do anything well. Offensively, they're challenged, they turn the ball over a little bit too much. Defensively, they've just I mean, they've been Swiss cheese. Now, granted, the Bears didn't move the ball on them, but the Bears don't really move the ball on anyone, so you can kind
of throw that game out the window. So I think you'll see a little bit of support for Green Bay here, nothing crazy, and certainly sportsbooks.
Will be rooting for the Giants. It's really hard to keep make a case for New York right now.
I mean, there are two to nine football team for a reason, and I think early when Daniel Jones came in earlier in the year, there was some hope, but I think that's slowly kind of fallen away with this team.
Yeah, I mean I agree that, you know, I think under a touchdown at this point, there's just going to be so much money coming in on the Packers, and I agree both sides. I like the backers, and you know, I don't mind being aligned with the public. And again you said that's not necessarily something that you need to shy away from, so I agree. Coming off really just
I mean, they were embarrassed on national television. I think they're going to really want to sort of establish themselves both offensively and defensively, and I think they come out with a big performance. And again the Giants just, you know, just seem like they're going through the motions at this point. So it's really a difficult team to back, even on a good day. Let's move on to the forty nine ers at the Ravens. The Ravens are currently laying four
with a total of forty six. Now, we were recording this on Monday before the Monday night game between the Ravens and the Rams, so we haven't yet seen the Ravens. But the forty nine ers, as I mentioned, incredibly impressive against the Packers. They get healthy on offense, George Kittle comes back, he looks good. Even though he's playing with the apparently chip bone in his ankle.
The defense continues.
To be extremely strong. It's a really good game here. How do you feel assuming nothing crazy happens tonight, no big injuries or anything like that, how do you feel here about the Ravens laying four in the total at forty six?
Yeah, I will say to the Ravens Rams game is going to affect this line in all likelihood. I mean, if the Ravens win an impressive manner, this probably moves up to four and a half. If the Rams somehow win the game tonight, it probably comes down to three and a half. So that's going to have an impact regardless. I mean, it's always going to be appealing to be taking points with the forty nine ers.
I think that's a pretty complete football team.
Offensively, maybe just average, but again, like you said, getting the weapons back, especially George Kittle, which is huge for them, that's going to be a better offense going forward. The defense has been really good this year. But what I particularly be looking at is probably the total in this game, and I think I'm gonna like the over in this game. I do think that the Ravens present some challenges altogether
for pretty much any defense that they face. Again, I could change my opinion depending on how they face the Rams tonight, how they show up against the Rams tonight, But they're really well coached team. What I like about Baltimore is that Harbaugh is very aggressive, So they go forward on fourth down, which I think lends itself to overs. Either the drives continue or they leave themselves with the other team with good field position and the Ravens.
And bad field position.
So at forty six, I would expect a little bit of money to come in on the over. That's probably where I look at this git, but certainly I need to reserve my judgment on the side for after I see the Ravens play tonight.
It's a great point on Harbaugh, and there is this great story about how he has hired a young, you know, twenty five year old analytics guy who basically has transformed him into somebody who plays the odds much more, and those odds usually mean to be aggressive. So he does that, which again, as you mentioned, does kind of lead its way more often than not to high schoo and towards the over.
I'm a little I agree.
With you, generally speaking, with the over at the total, I don't have a great feel for whatsoever. I feel like I cannot get a great feel for the forty nine ers. It's a great football team, but I feel like every time I'm ready to completely back them, they lay up a little bit of a dug like against the Cardinals, where they still win, but they don't really look overly impressive. And the total, yeah, I would lean
towards the over as of this moment. I think both teams are gonna be able to put up points, but it's not something I feel overly confident in. Let's move on to the Bucks at the Jaguars. Jaguars here are laying one. This is down from the look headline of laying three and the total at forty nine. The Bucks come off the big win against the Falcons, they continue to have the same exact script, a strong passing offense, a strong rushing defense, and no pass defense. Despite that
strong game against the Falcons. Meanwhile, the Jaguars get totally abused by the Titans. Nick Foles has not helped much offensively since the switch from Gardner Minshew. So how do you feel here about the Jaguars at home laying one? To the Bucks with a total of forty nine.
Yeah, this one's a really, really tough one for me because I've actually backed the Bucks a lot this year and I've lost money in doing so. But typically I do like this Buccaneers team, but it's gonna be really hard for me to get behind them at this price. But obviously, you mean, just following the Jaguars the last couple of weeks, you have to have a really sour taste in your mouth the way that they've lost the Titans and Colts, and they've been thoroughly beat down in
the process of those two games. Ultimately, though I do think the number is a little bit short. I think the Jaguars should be priced probably closer to two and a half point favored in this game, and I ultimately think, I mean, it's gonna be hard for people to stomach, especially for big money, but I ultimately think that some money will come in on Jacksonville in this game. I think that they'll get one more shot to kind of to prove themselves. But at this price range, it's gonna
be really tough. It is just because of how poor they've looked in the last couple of weeks and like you mentioned Nick Foles not really offering anything for that offense, but then again, the Bucks pass defense might be the cure for that. I also see the total at forty nine. It's been interesting with the Bucks this year because they've had a lot of high totals that have been bet down. I'm talking about totals of around fifty two and a
half to fifty four that have come down. And conversely, when they've had lower totals and games, they tend to be bet up. So I think this will probably be bet up. Just thinking about this in my head, I do see this as a game where there's going to be a lot of points. So I'd be looking at Jags minus one and over forty nine in this game.
And I mean, the thing is the Bucks.
You know, the number gets met up, but I mean they hit the over almost every week, don't they. I Mean, I don't have the number in front of me, but I think they've been hitting the overs even when they're ending up high.
Yeah.
I kind of lean towards the Jaguars here. I agree at three, you know, laying one, I think the Daguars are going to come out of ahead here. I've also backed the Bucks a number of times. I think that they've kind of been under sold by the numbers that are being out there. But in the end, it's so difficult to back Winston because you know at some point
he's going to have the backbreaking turnover. Overall, I kind of think this is going to be one of the games where the Jaguars at home look to take care of business. I do think they win. I do like them laying one at this point and then total. I don't have a great feel for it. I need to get into it a little bit more, but it's difficult to go wrong going over with the Bucks. Generally speaking, Before we finish up with our last few games, I want to mind everyone about our giveaway. It's a signed
Odell Beckham Junior Cleveland Brown's helmet. Our contest is running through November thirtieth, so you've got a few more days. You go to betting pros dot com slash contest for more details, but to enter, just leave a review for the show on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher and send a screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com. Now, the Beckham helmet and all of our sign helmets come from Pristine Auction where they offer a ton of great
memorabilia with thousands of auctions every day. So go to Pristine Auction dot com. That's p R I S t i n E Auction dot com. And when you go there, use our promo code Betting Pros and win a free five dollars voucher instantly. All right, let's move on here to the Rams at the Cardinals. Rams are laying three and a half with the over under at forty seven. As we mentioned, we have not yet seen the Monday night game between the Rams and the Ravens, so we
don't know exactly what they're going to look like. So this may affect how you view the market. But the Cardinals are coming off of by Kyler Murray continues to be able to put up points, but their defense really nothing to write home about. They don't get much pressure on the quarterback and that's kind of the key to getting in Jared Goff's head. So how do you feel here again without seeing tonight's game? Rams laying three and a half on the road, the total at forty seven.
It seems before tonight's game, it seems like the right number to me. Three and a half at least the total I could potentially see coming down a little bit, just because of the Rams track record away from home for the most part and Golf being a pretty bad
quarterback away from home. But ultimately, I look at the Rams and the Cardinals and it's two teams that I'm pretty reluctant to back for the most part, the Rams purely due to the inconsistency on offense and just Jared Goff not being able to successfully move the ball on a regular occasion, and the Cardinals to me seem like they're somewhat outperforming their metrics for the most part. I still don't know what to make of Kyler Murray. Some
games he looks really good, some games he doesn't. But ultimately, what it comes back to for both these teams is that I find them to be extremely inconsistent, and those are not teams that I like to get involved on for the most part. So three and a half seems like the right number to me right now. That's where
I would have opened it myself. Again, like you mentioned, the Rams Ravens game will have an impact on where this number goes, but ultimately I doubt I'm going to have a bet on this one in Week thirteen.
Yeah, I mean, I think the spread looks about right to me as well. I am interested in watching tonight because for me, I kind of like the under. It just look Jared Goff has not looked anything like the quarterback that we saw in the beginning of last year for essentially a full NFL season at this point. And you know, of course the Cardinals don't have a great defense or anything like that, but I really don't think it matters at this point. So what I really want
to see is whether or not they come out. It's a tough defense with the Ravens tonight, but I want to see if they come out with any sort of wrinkles that they can do. They're going to find only have all three of the receivers. That sounds like if Robert Woods plays and Brandon Cooks looks to be back from the concussion. But it's really about their offensive line, which is just a bunch of no names at this
point because they've been so decimated there. And with the Cardinals look, I like Murray as a player, but you know, I feel like they script the beginning for him. He looks good, and after that he's just kind of you know, running around and trying to figure it out, and he's so talented that he's often able to. But I really
like the Rams defense since they've added Jalen Ramsey. So for me, with the total at forty seven, I kind of lean towards the under by I admit that I want to see what the Rams look like off of bye tonight against a tough defense in the Raid in the Ravens. Let's move on here to the Raiders at the Chiefs. Chiefs here are now laying nine and a half. Look headline was ten, so it's dound half a point. The over under is fifty one and a half and the total was fifty four and a half with the lookhadline,
so it's certainly come down from there. Just as we mentioned earlier, terrible loss here for the Raiders against the Jets, they just did not show up. They generally struggle at East Derek Carr doesn't usually play all that well in the cold. They are also down now Hunter renfro who injured his ribs and I believe it's going to miss the rest of the season. Now the Chiefs are coming off a bye, they're home, They're probably going to be
pretty healthy overall. So it's a large number. But how do you feel here in indivisional game Chiefs in Arrowhead laying nine and a half with the total at fifty one and a half, I think.
You'll probably see a little bit of money come in on Oakland. I don't think there's enough I mean of a discrepancy between these two teams. I still think the Raiders are an above average team in the NFL. And I know that they got blown out last week and they looked really bad in the process, and they're kind of coming down to earth. But I still think they're
above average team. So certainly the points are tempting here. Obviously, you'd much prefer a plus ten and a plus nine and a half, with I mean ten being I don't want to say a true key number, but I mean it's a valuable number for the most part. The total is very interesting to me because, like you mentioned, look ahead at fifty four and a half, I actually think this number opened at fifty four and a half and has been bet down. I think that's probably gone a
little bit too far. If I'm being honest, I think you'd see some buy back up to round the fifty two to fifty two and a half range, especially with the Chiefs coming off of bye. I mean, I'm going to be really surprised if the Chiefs don't score thirty in this game, and I think the Raiders offense can keep up. So personally, I think this total has been
bet down too much. If I'm looking at the game from a side perspective, I'd somewhat mean to the Raiders, but I think I'd prefer the over at fifty one right now.
Yeah, I agree with you that the over is what stands out to me. I feel like, you know, there's too many you know, negative implications being drawn from you know, the way the Chiefs didn't really you know, put up a dominant offensive performance in Mexico City against the Charters. But of course, not only did you have the thin air, which certainly affects things, but you didn't have Tyreek Hill in that game. And he reportedly is recovering from his
hamstring injury, so he's playing well. So if everyone is there at this point, I really think that he is going to be you know, the team as a whole is going to put up a big number offensively. I agree with you that thirty points seems like it's going to be something that they can easily get to.
So I agree with you with.
The total coming down from fifty four and a half to fifty one and a half. I agree that I like the over Let's move on to the Chargers at the Broncos. Chargers here laying two and a half. Now, this was a look head line of a pickum, so it's certainly moved in favor of the charters. The total at thirty eight and a half. The Broncos surprise the Chargers by beating them in Los Angeles last time, but Brandon Allen just eighty two yards passing against the Bills
on Sunday. It's not a strong offense. The defense still generally hangs in there, but they're not quite as dominant as they have been in past years. Meanwhile, the Chargers are charging. If Philip Rivers could run a two minute drill, they'd probably be a five hundred team by now. But you know they've got They've been injured on both sides of the ball. The offense just kind of looks out of sync. I don't know whether or not Rivers is just reaching that point in his career. He's thirty seven
years old, where it's starting to go downhill. So how do you feel here about the Chargers laying two and a half in Denver with the total low total of thirty eight and a half.
Yeah, this one's a really tough one for me because if you had asked me this a week ago, I would have loved the Broncos at plus two and a half. But obviously what you saw out to Brandon Allen this week was just a deplorable performance.
And I mean he just doesn't have it. I mean, he's not an.
NFL quarterback, He's not an NFL calendar quarterback in a league that is very quarterback driven. That's obviously a challenge. But is there enough separating the Broncos, even with Brandon Allen at quarterback, to be two and a half point underdogs at home to the Chargers. I mean, would they be catching more than a touchdown if they were on the road here?
I doubt it, especially when you.
Consider that they just closed as a three and a half point underdog at Buffalo a week ago. So it's tough because you don't want to put too much stock into one week, but it's really hard. Ultimately, I think you might see some more Chargers money bring this up to three before some Sharps get bring this number back
down to two and a half. I don't see it moving a whole lot, but if it does move a whole lot, it's probably going to be to the Broncos, who have been a pretty you know, sharps have been willing to back them this year because they've had so many close losses. I think there was four games going into last week where they've lost by a combined ten points, so easily could be a team that's above five hundred
right now. Instead they're three to eight. When you look at DVOA, there's still ahead of the Chargers this year, So ultimately, I think you'd be more likely to see people back back the Broncos than not, and then depending on the wind. I know thirty eight and a half is a low total, but based on what we've seen under these two offenses recently, we'll probably see some support for the under in this game as well.
Yeah, it's a low one, but I agree that if there's going to be support one way or another, I think more money is going to come in on the under. This is not a game that I have a great feel for man, I mean, but you know, both teams look.
I like the.
Broncos actually this week against Buffalo, I for pretty much all the reasons that you say. They're certainly still competing even though they're way out of playoff contention, But in the end, they just never seem to be able to close the door. Now, they weren't close in Buffalo this week. But yeah, like you said, they easily could have been
a five hundred team had some things broken differently. But the charters really again, you know, it's just it's not happening right now for them, and when they have a chance to put it away, they're not able to do it. So it's not a game that I feel real good about. If anything, I agree despite the total, I kind of like the under at thirty and a half. Let's move on to the Pats. At the Texans. Patriots here are laying three and the over under at forty four and
a half. The Patriots continue to win despite looking lackluster offensively. They're also pretty beat up. They were down Mohammed Sanu and Philip dore Set this past week. I don't know if they're going to play necessarily. I haven't seen the practice sports yet their defense though, look, it remains outstanding. You know, it's not quite as dominant as it looks in that long run against subpar teams early in the season,
but they certainly continue to put up quality, quality efforts. Meanwhile, the Texans, they win against the Colts in the game that was essentially must win on Thursday, but they are far from impressive on either side of the ball.
You can throw on them pretty easily.
Deshaun Watson, his play is kind of sporadic, as he's running for his life often. So how do you feel here about the Pats laying three and the over under a forty four and a half.
It's a tough one because this one feels a lot like Patriots Ravens from a few weeks ago in terms of the way that it's set up. The Texans have a little bit of extra rest coming into this game. The only difference between the Patriots Ravens and Patriots Texans is that the Ravens actually have a very good coach and the Texans don't. And that's what I really struggle with in this game. It's why I struggle to back Dallas even though they cover the spread against New England.
This week is because this is Bill Belichick against Bill O'Brien and that's a huge coach coaching mismatch. So I think you're going to see this bounce around between three and three and a half all week long. I think you'll see sharp support on both sides of this game.
I really do.
But it's really tough to bet against the Patriots when you don't like the opposing coach when you're not getting a big number. Now, granted, they don't look like the Patriots of the year's pass especially offensively, So this is what I think you're going to see some market support on the under here, and that's been pretty consistent with the Patriots over the last four to six weeks here.
And I know the total will be forty five be considered low for the Texans, who typically have a pretty good offense, but even they've been struggling offensively lately, struggled to put away the Colts last week as well, So I think you're going to see this total come down potentially to forty four, which is a key number in NFL totals. And if I was looking to back this game, that's what I would like. Under forty five.
Yeah, I mean you mentioned that the total is going to be bouncing back and forth. Look the if you look at betting Bros dot Com and you have you know, maybe eight or nine sports book listed there, you know, it's like five of them are at minus three and five of them are at minus three and a half, So it is probably going to be bouncing around there. I do expect the Patriots to win this game, if for no other reason then exactly what you said. It's
a coaching mismatch for sure. And realistically, if the Patriots get healthy and they get a little bit more in the receiver, I do think you know, Brady does not looked good. The team as a whole does not look good.
You know, the.
Weather in New England was terrible yesterday against the Cowboys. It's really tough to take anything from that. I think they are going to be able to come up with some wrinkles. And again the Texans, you know, it's not like JJ Watt was doing that much this season, but certainly defensively you can really exploit them.
So I do expect the Pats to be able to at least win by three.
If it gets above the key number, I'm gonna get a little nervous about it, but overall I'd lean towards the Patriots on the spread. Let's move on to the final game, the Monday night game, the Vikings at the Seahawks. Currently the Seahawks laying two and a half and the total at forty nine's big game here. The Seahawks continue to basically outperform all models and the talent they have on their team, and they just pretty much win each
and every week. They win a sloppy game against the Eagles and bad weather even though they were down to gadevan Clowney, they win nonetheless. Meanwhile, the Vikings are impressive of late. They have that big comeback win against the Broncos. They should get Adam Thielen back. The defense is not anything to write home about, particularly the pass defense at
this point. But how do you feel here the Vikings at the Seahawks on Monday Night Seahawks laying two and a half with the pretty high total as has often been the case with Seahawks here at forty nine.
Yeah, I think this is again just a scenario where depending on the number, you'll have support on either side. So at two and a half you probably see the Seahawks get bought up a bit or people snatch those two and a half, even if it's a little bit more big on those I think three. Certainly you'll see people want to back the Vikings, and it's pretty easy to make a case for both of these teams here. Obviously, if you're making a case for a Seahawks you would
allude to Kirk cousins historical performance against good teams. I'm not sure how much stock I put into that, because I think it's a little bit overblown. But obviously if you're looking at the Vikings, you can point to a lot of advanced metrics that show that the Seahawks are probably a little bit overrated as well. Personally, I think this total is low at forty nine. I do think the Vikings can move the ball on the Seahawks defense.
I think the Seahawks having such a good defensive performance against the Eagles has really kind of misled people a little bit because Carson Wentz missed a ton of throws in that game looked really, really horrible. The Seahawks still don't have much of a pass rush. We'll see the status of Jadavian Clowney, but if he's out, that's even that's music to Kirk Cousins ears because I just don't think the Seahawks are a great defense overall. So personally, I think this total is going to get bet up.
I think by game time you could see it in the fifties. And I see both these teams scoring points. It's one of those where I've you know, from a numbers perspective, I do like the over, but also just thinking about it subjectively, I think there's going to be plenty of points in this game.
Yeah, I completely agree. I don't like the spread. I just you know, I think the Vikings are a better team. But you know, Wilson really is playing at an MVP level right now. It's not you know, on Monday night in that building. It's not really a case where I'd want to bet against the Seahawks at this point. But
the total one hundred percent agree. Both these teams are you know, they have the reputation of having these great defenses, but in the end, they're really both exploitable and I think both offenses.
Look.
I think since the Vikings have kind of opened it up a bit offensively here, and you know they have the dominant run game with Dalvin Cook, but since they've opened it up, especially with Adam Thielen coming back, I think they're really going to be able to put up a lot of points here. And the Seahawks can as well. You know, they have two solid running backs, and again Wilson is just basically able to do whatever he wants.
So I agree with you completely. If you like the total, which I do, which sounds like Rob does, and I think getting in on it now before it starts creeping up past fifty is probably a good idea. Well, that's going to do it for today's show. Rob, It was really great having you on. I thought you brought a lot of exceptional insight into the game, and you use the word deplorable twice, which I think is really an
underused word in our vernacular. So and I think they were both apped as one of them was to describe Brandon Allen, so absolutely right on. Remind everybody where they can find more of you and your work.
Yeah, just follow me on Twitter at rob Azzola.
I mean, if you have betting related questions, my direct messages or dms are open on Twitter, so you know I try to answer.
As many of those as possible. So yeah, that's it.
I mean, I have nothing to promote aside from my Twitter account, but certainly I love talking sports in general, and I love connecting with other people who talk sports.
Yeah, if you see Rob's Twitter account, you'll see him from when he was on periscopy, a lot of great insights, so he's a great follow.
Rob.
Really appreciate you coming on. I hope we can do it again sometime.
Sounds good. Thanks for having me.
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because of Thanksgiving. Given some our best bets for week thirteen, I'll talk to you them.