Hey everyone, welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris and you can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Hadi. It is time for our early look at next week's lines, and with me to break it all down is Seawan Green, the co creator and co host of the Sports Gamling podcast. You can find him on Twitter at Shawn T. Green. Shawn, thanks for coming back on the show.
How you doing, I'm doing great, man. Yeah, just a kind of crazy weekend. You know. He saw a lot of big dogs win out right, and that always makes things interesting. As far as the next week's.
Spreads, I have to imagine that the books had a monstrous, monstrous weekend, right, I mean the Chiefs and nonetheless the Chiefs right where everybody was probably you know, on the money line I'm sure, and taking them in parlays and stuff like that. I mean, they must have totally cleaned up this weekend.
Yeah, I mean there's a couple, there's probably like a couple of sharp people who had the Dolph and Colts or sorry, I mean the Dolphins and Falcons moneyline parlay together.
But yeah, I think the.
Chiefs were probably in everyone's teaser a lot of moneyline Parlay's probably got killed, and then you know you got the I mean even the.
Dallas Cowboys at home Sunday night.
I feel like that's a big public opportunity and Vikings winning out right must have heard them.
Yeah, this is how Vegas builds buildings. Man, this is what it's all about. Well, let's see how this weekend, this upcoming week looks so as usual. Now, Shawn has been here twice already. I love it for the Monday show, so I don't really need to explain this to him, but I will explain it to you in cases is your first time listening. We're going to go through each game on the week eleven Slate going to be using
the consensus odds over at bettingpros dot com. Now, the consensus odds are just the aggregation of odds that are available in the market, so there are always differences in the various sportsbooks. So if you're thinking about betting on any particular game, and some of the games are going to hear, I'm sure Shawn and I are going to be like, yeah, get in on that number now, because
it's probably going to change. You want to look at the various sportsbooks to make sure you're getting the best odds. And if you want to see how any of the top sports betting experts are leaning on any given bet at any given time, bettingpros dot Com is going to show you that too. All right, Tom, let's dive in here with the Thursday night game. We've got the Steelers at the Browns. The Browns here laying two and a half, the over under at forty and a half, both teams
coming off real big wins. Here, the Steelers taking care of business again at home. They sneak past the Rams, largely on the strength of their defense. Meanwhile, the Browns surprising three point favorites against the Bills and they win by exactly that amount. There's really one impressive unit I feel like among these two teams, and it's the Steelers defense. Since they added Minka Fitzpatrick, they've been a different team. Every other unit on both sides of the ball is
just kind of meh in my opinion. So how do you feel about this one? Brown's laying just under a field goal at home on Thursday night two and a half and the over under at forty and a half.
Yeah, I mean this is interesting.
I mean, this is basically what the Bills Browns gave opened up last week. It did get to three. I'm kind of surprised it wasn't. I guess I thought it would be closer to a pick if I was, if I was grading this game, because yeah, you said, you nailed it. The one impressive unit is the Steelers defense, and it's really impressive. I mean they're creating turnovers, they're scoring on defense. Mason Rudolph has really struggled. I think, Yeah, I mean, it's gonna be an interesting game. But I'm
surprised the Steelers are getting points here. I thought this would be closer to a pick them. But I guess the public is still kind of enjoying backing the Browns.
So yeah, that's probably where the two and a half comes in.
Yeah, I was a little surprised by it too, But I feel like I'm usually surprised at the Browns lines, like I feel like they always should be worse, especially because I feel like the general perception is from the public is that they they you know, they were all in. I say this pretty much every week, but they were all in on the Browns preseason and early on, and you know, if you were a public better your heart just has to be and then you just got to be so off the Browns. So they make these lines.
I mean, I guess that make you want to pick against the Browns, but I feel like the natural inclination of the public would be to pick against the Browns at this point, So I'm never sure why they're like this. And again, you know the fact that the Steelers won. Uh, you know, I'm not all that surprised, necessarily as the game unfolded, because again that the Rams offensive line they sustained more injuries, so you saw the defense sort of go after them. But I agree with you, I did
not expect to see this. It's not a huge deal if it's under you know, the key number of three, necessarily, but certainly I expected it to be closer to a pick them. Early money is coming in on the Steelers, as you might expect, both the number of bets and the amount of money being wagered. So I expect that will be a popular line, and I think it's probably going to move towards the Steelers, although it probably won't make that big a difference in terms of you know
what it actually means. So long as it stays below the key number of three, let's move on. Oh go ahead, sorry, yeah.
Oh, I was just gonna say.
It must be everyone who you know has all the browns of their fantasy team, like not giving up. I mean, if you have Odell Beckham junior, you just have to ride the season out and hope he hope he goes off.
But yeah, every week I get yelled at. You know I rank for Fantasy pros. I'm a ranker, and you know I'm in the top ten for the season in accuracy. But every week I get people yelling at me about where I'm ranking Odell Beckham and it's justifiable. I get it. Well, hopefully this is the beginning of a turnaround, although of course the Steelers defense is not exactly the easiest matchup.
Let's move on to the next game, which I don't think we can really talk about too much because there are no lines as far as I'm seeing, neither on our consensus anywhere or on any book that I've seen, which is the Cowboys at the Lions. There's no line available because we don't know who's going to be starting at quarterback. Right now. You had Jeff Driscoll this past weekend for the Lions at quarterback in relief of Matthew Stafford,
who's dealing with fractures in his back. And all I've heard is it's the quote good type of fracture, which I don't really think that anybody who's not suffering from a fractured back should be able to say that. But again, this is something where he's not ruled out this week, and again he was only ruled out on Sunday this past week. It wasn't like coming in, it was like,
oh man, it was all of a sudden. It leaked on Saturday with an Ian Rappaport tweet that like, oh there's serious concern about his availability, and then on Sunday it was just like, all right, he's out. So look, you know, I guess the the easiest way to analyze this is maybe, you know, you think about the Cowboys here, coming off a tough loss against the Vikings, as we talked about, you've got to win this game for the Cowboys on the road. I mean, where do you expect
this line to be. Let's assume Stafford plays at this point, I mean, where would you expect the line to be with the Lions at home against the Cowboys.
Yeah, I think with Stafford in there, it'll probably be Cowboys like minus three somewhere around there. But you know, once Driscoll gets announced, I wouldn't be surprised if it shoots up closer to six. Yeah, and maybe, but yeah, I mean the thing is, if Stafford does come back, he's gonna still be kind of banged up, and you gotta you gotta be concerned that he finishes the game.
So either way, I I have a feeling a that Driscoll's going to be starter later in the week and be that the line will probably close closer to six.
If I had a guess, Yeah, I think that's probably right. I was thinking roughly a field goal. I could see it maybe coming in under. The one thing to monitor, by the way, with the Cowboys is that Zach Martin sustained an injury yesterday I think was his elbow. I don't know if his availability is going to be impacted here, but any injury on that offensive line for the Cowboys kind of right, it drastically affects how they performed. You saw it when Tarren Smith was out and Lil Collin,
so you know you gotta be careful there. But in the meantime, it's obviously not a game that you can really go full bore into. But I agree with that. I would expect roughly a field goal laying and another three points if Driscoll's named the starter. All right, let's move on here to the Jaguars that the Colts. Colts are laying three with the over under at forty four. We talked about it earlier. The Colt's coming off an
absolutely disastrous loss against the Dolphins. With Brian Hoyer under center, he throws three picks. It's unclear if Jacoby Brissett is going to be back for this one. He was trending in the right direction with that mcl sprain, and then he was ruled out on Saturday night, not sort of, you know, a game time decision, but then it came out on Saturday. Now there's sort of rumors that he may not be ready for this one, which frankly I
expected going. I mean, in mcl strain, no matter what it is, it's not something that you can just bounce right back from it, something where it needs to take a little time. But anyway, he is up in the air. Meanwhile, the Jaguars coming off of bye here they're turning back to Nick Foles. There's all this uncertainty at QB. But how do you feel about a Colt saying three at home over under a forty four?
Yeah?
This is interesting because I think last week, and you know, we talked about it on my podcast that the that Brian Hoyer laying ten and a half was the craziest line I've seen in a long time. I mean, Brian Hoyer is a huge step down from Jacoby Brissett. And it's it's interesting because I think at least the public's perception or the way they're handicapping these games, they haven't really handicapped Jacoby Brissett as the legit starter that the
guy is. They kind of are still handicapping him. It seems as like a backup quarterback. And there's definitely been value on the Colts early in the season, and even here it doesn't seem again, if Jacoby Brissett isn't playing, I think minus three is kind of a weird number. I do think it'll probably close at minus three. I don't see this moving one way or the other. Because you have Nick Foles coming off that injury, and so I think they're kind of defaulting on like, hey, division game,
give them the three points. But yeah, I mean Brian Hoyer as a favorite is that's an interesting bet for sure.
So do you feel comfortable with the Colts laying three if it is per set?
Uh? No, I wouldn't.
I mean, just because I'm kind of worried about I mean, oh sorry, if it's Jacoby Brissett, yeah, yeah, if it's pre set, yeah, I mean I haven't broken down the game completely, but minus three to me makes sense if.
Jacoby Brissett is the startup. But if he's not, I don't think they're adjusting enough for Brian Hoyer.
Yeah, I mean, right now, from what I'm looking at, You've got so much money coming in on the Jaguars at this point, despite the fact that a majority of bets are on the Cults. So my guess is that people in the No Problem think that Brissett is not going to suit up. That would actually be what I think as well. So you know, for me, if I'm looking at this number and I want to get into this game, I do it now, because again, if Brissett comes in, that bet looks a lot worse for sure.
Let's move on here to our next game, the Broncos at the Vikings. The Vikings here are laying nine and the over unders pretty low at thirty eight and a half. Vikings coming off that huge win against the Cowboys, despite being down Adam Thielen, they'll now you know, they come home, they take on the Broncos before they get their buy the Broncos meanwhile, or with Brandon Allen last week with Joe Flack and I are they get the win against the Browns doing very little on offense. Now you know
you've got the bye coming up. Of course, as I said, with the Vikings, so you know it should be an easy matchup. You could see this being a letdown game right where they're just kind of looking past them. But we did say the same thing essentially about the Ravens kind of coming in not with the bye coming up right off that giant win against the Pats, maybe looking past the Bengals. But how do you feel here Vikings laying nine over on at thirty eight and a half.
Yeah, I think it kind of makes sense that they price it here because everyone saw the Vikings take care of the Cowboys on prime time, so that always gives you a little bit of added juice. The Broncos coming off the bye that's kind of interesting. Their defense seemingly has kind of come together.
Yeah, you nailed it.
Their offense didn't do much, but it did feel like Alan came in gave them.
A little bit of a spark.
We see that a lot of times, like first time Starter comes in and kind of exceeds expectations a little bit, then they get some film on them and they kind of shut them down. I think they're not factoring in the bye week enough for the Broncos because they did have They're going to have two weeks here to prepare for the Vikings, so I think that will help them.
I wouldn't be surprised if this gets bet down a little bit closer to seven, but it's certainly not gonna I think at seven it would get pounded on the Viking, so I think it'll definitely stay at two scores.
Yeah. I mean, look, it's been trending down sort of, so that's a good call. I mean, I think the look aheadline might have been ten and a half when it first done, and even earlier today when I took a look at the consensus lines. It was nine and a half, so it's clearly being bet down. I agree, I don't think it's going to get all the way down there to like a field goal or anything like that.
It's a tough spot. I don't This is not a game that I like, right, It's not a game where you look at it and you're like, well, you know, the Vikings they're clearly the superior team. But again you've got the variables, which is a very easy look ahead spot for the Vikings. A team coming off a bye, they get an extra week to prepare, not only defensively, and their defense remain strong because they wound up keeping you know, Chris Harris and they wound up keeping vond
Miller and everything like that. So they're in a good spot here. But again, it's really tough because you know, you don't really want to trust a Brandon Allen lead offense going in on the road, right, So it's a game where you know, I don't really feel comfortable with it yet, But I agree, it's something where you know, I'm not surprised that it got bet down from a probable high of what I'm seeing of the Look headline of ten and a half on here to the Texans
at the Ravens Ravens lank four and a half. The over under at fifty and a half. Now, this is up the over under at least from the Look headline which was forty nine. So it's up a point and a half there. The Ravens, as we discussed, absolutely demolished the Bengals every facet of the game, and that was coming off the mantrous win against the Patriots again where I kind of felt like this would be a look headline.
Actually liked the Bengals getting ten. That was a poor decision. Yeah. Meanwhile, the Texans, you like, they're coming off the by after the winning London against the Jaguars. They've been banged up on the offensive line. They've also been banged up on defense in their secondary, but they're probably going to get a bit healthier here. Wolf Fuller is already practicing, so he may come back. So this is a pretty interesting
game coming in. How do you feel about the Ravens lank four and a half with the over under now moving up at fifty and a half.
Yeah, I mean this kind of seems like, yeah, probably the right price here, you got an AFC matchup, you got the like you said, Texans coming off the by neutral field to say the Ravens are a point and a half better that that kind of makes sense to me. Certainly everyone's gonna want a piece of the Ravens, but so you have to give the Texans a little bit more than the field goal to appetize betters there. Yeah,
I mean, this just seems like a great game. I guess I'd be surprised if you get any crazy movement one way or the other. Like, it feels like this is probably where the the.
Price is going to close.
It's definitely not going to get up to a touchdown and maybe it gets down to four three and a half, but nothing, It's definitely not going to get down to a field goal.
Yeah, it's gonna be it's going to close between four and five. I mean, it's going to be one of the dead numbers where you know you're not going to really feel all that comfortable with whatever it's going to be. But in the end, yeah, this is a tough game. It's a really tough game. I mean the Ravens, you know, you want to feel like maybe they're not quite as good as they've shown lately. But I think they really are. Their defense in particular is really starting to gel as
they've gotten healthier at cornerback. They're just playing incredibly well. And you know, if the Texans, you got to watch the Texans offensive line right now, because if they are still banged up, that's gonna make it a tough day for Deshaun Watson.
But yeah, I mean really normally, the rule for me is what the Texans has just been. If they had the team they're playing has a pass rush and is going to get pressure on Deshaun Watson, then fade them, you know, but it's gonna be interesting. I'll probably wait to like make my pick to see, Like you said, the offensive line health that could be big and the Ravens defense seemed a little bit fraudulent early, but again they've kind of figured it out lately.
For sure.
Yeah, they've geled. I mean I keep waiting for that letdown game from the Ravens. Like you know, you saw that game against the Browns earlier in the year where you just were like, oh, the Ravens are going to demolish them and then they just kind of laid an egg. I keep waiting for that game, but I kind of now feel like I'm gonna be waiting for a while
to get there because they are playing incredibly well. So this is a game where I agree if you do want to bet it, it's probably something where you need to wait as long as possible because the health of the Texans in particular is going to really determine I think how I feel about this game. Before we move on, I want to tell everybody about the sponsor of today's show,
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Right now, the Redskins are laying to this opened at a pick them from what I saw, and the over under is at thirty seven and a half. But legitimately, right as we were recording, we found out that Dwayne Haskins was named the starting quarterback for not only this game but the rest of the season the Redskins, which certainly colors how I feel about it. But the Jets, they come off the big win against the Giants in the Battle of New Jersey. It's not an overly impressive win.
They're shredded by Daniel Jones. The offense is inconsistent and again, just coming across the wire. They've lost Chris Herndon for at least, you know, several games, if not the remainder of the season. I know he hasn't played very much, but he had started coming back this past week. Meanwhile, the Redskins, they're coming off the by. They'll get Darius Guys back, but it's still, you know, kind of unclear how this offense is going to be able to perform
with Dwayne Haskins starting at quarterbacks. So how do you feel here right now? Redskins laying two over under a thirty seven and a half at home to the Jets.
Yeah, I just if you've watched Dwayne Haskins at all, I don't think you can make him a favorite in any sort of NFL game. So I pick him actually sounds closer to what it should be in my mind, and I wouldn't be surprised if it gets back down two pick. I'm surprised that at pick yeah, that Washington was getting enough action to move it. I think maybe the Haskins news will move it back down to pick or closer to that. I think if you're if you're forcing yourself to bet and watch this game, I think
you would talk. It's easier to build a case, I think probably for the Jets because they've had some semblance of a team. But yeah, both these teams have had serious, serious issues.
Yeah, I mean the Redskins really, they're not a terrible team. They have a decent defensive line, the secondary is not the worst in the world. They have some playmakers on offense. I mean, Adrian Peterson has been running well shockingly. Terry McLaurin is certainly a talent. But if you've got Haskins that he's just not ready to be an NFL could be I don't argue with the starting him for the rest of the year. I think this is a good time now to do it, especially against a team like
the Jets. But in the end, I cannot, in any circumstance back a Redskins team with Dwayne Askins at quarterback. I don't feel great about the Jets, but I would certainly I take them. I think if you know at the line anything where they're getting points, certainly or pick them or anything like that. I think I'd have to take them here, because again, the Jets, as bad as they are, they're not quite as bad as they looked either.
I mean, the offensive line is terrible, but you know they have at least some talent both on offense and on defense. Jamal Adams, you know, played one best games I've ever seen, and you know this past week, So they have enough talent there that they can do some damage. So you know, for me, with Haskins going, if it was case Keenum, I probably would favor the Redskins in this game because I really do think the downgrade is that significant. I think Haskins, honestly, it's just not ready.
So for me, not that you know, when you're below the key numbers here doesn't matter all that much. But I would still get in soon if you do like the Jets like I do, before the line moves even further towards the Jets.
Yeah, this could be like a seventeen sixteen game and you're kicking yourself for not getting those three two points.
Yeah, and again it's not a huge deal, you know, once you're at this point, but certainly at any point, like look, you'd rather be getting the two than you know, a pick them game. Of course, Falcons here at the Panthers. Right now, the Panthers are favored by five and a half. Now, This was at six and a half when I checked earlier today, so the line has moved towards the Falcons. The over under ad fifty one. Falcons pull off the shocking upset of the Saints in New Orleans. As we
talked about, their defense suddenly comes to life. They basically doubled their season long sack total in Justice one game, which is crazy considering that it's Drew Brees and the Saints. They do suffer a few injuries on offense here and we don't know the results of the MRIs that both players are going for. That's DeVonta Freeman who sustains a foot or an ankle injury in Austin Hooper with his knees,
so that's something you're going to want to monitor. And the Falcons are already banged up running back with Edo Smith being placed on ir. Meanwhile, the Panthers, they played the Packers tough. They gave him a good game, They came close to tying it in the end, but they ultimately lose in the snowy game in Green Bay. James Bradbury, who has played very well at corner, did miss this pass game against Devonte Adams so he's got a groin injury.
I don't know about his status coming up, So that would certainly chings a little bit with Julio Jones on tap if you can play. The Panthers have a very strong pass defense otherwise, So how do you feel here? You know, the Falcons kind of change the narrative on their season just a tiny bit. Panthers Langford five and a half at home in the over under at fifty one.
Yeah, I mean, they may as well dump the gatorade on Dan Quinn after that game because that was that was their super Bowl, right And we see this with bad teams all the time. You got to find those couple of games per year where they're really going to show up.
And it's gonna be you know, it's gonna be their super Bowl.
And with the Falcons, in hindsight, it really makes sense that that was their super Bowl. They're coming off of by in a dome against the division rival, and it made sense that they really got up for this game.
This game against the Panthers.
I think it's gonna be a lot tougher for them matchup wise, and again going outdoors in Carolina, the field's gonna play a little slower, and Carolina is a quality team, you know, I thought they would have. I mean, look at they came so close to pulling it out in Green Bay didn't, but they were certainly in that game the entire time. And Christian McCaffrey, I think it's gonna be a matchup nightmare for this Falcons team.
I think people are talking themselves into the.
Fact that, like, hey, the Falcons won, They're not as bad as we thought, and that's why it's getting met down from six and a half to five and a half. I wouldn't be surprised if it closes closer to four and a half, maybe even four. It's certainly not gonna dip below four, and I'd be surprised. I'd be really surprised if it goes the other way and starts going up towards seven. So yeah, I think if you like
the Falcons, I would probably get in now. But if you like the Panthers, I think you can probably wait a little bit.
Yeah, for me, I like the Bnthers. I mean I liked them at six and a half. Frankly, I mean I think this is a spot where, yeah, I mean it's gonna be I mean the Falcon. Look, kudos to them. I'm not kidding Dan Quinn. Legitimately, every week for the past four weeks it's been like, all right, this is the week, Quinn goes, this is it, this is it. And then they come out and they do that against the Saints, you know, who were by the way coming off by you know, so it was really kind of
unexpected there to do that. So for them to do that, that's great. But you know, they don't have two weeks to prepare for the Panthers. The Panthers are probably going to be angry and ready to go McCaffrey. You know, the books have been written about the falcons inability to cover pass catching running backs over the past several seasons, so you know, McCaffrey is certainly a nightmare for them. I just think that this is going to be a
get right spot for the Panthers. So either way, you know, look, if you if you like the pan I mean, I agree in the end it's not getting up to a touchdown or anything like that if it does go the other way. But I agree that this, you know, is a public perception type of game where people are going to be like, oh yeah, the Falcons. Right, Yeah, look at that, so I think you're probably safe to wait it out if like me, you like the Panthers. In
this one, Bill's at the Dolphins. Bill's currently minus six and the over under at thirty nine. Dolphins come off the big win against the Calts. As we mentioned, they got a little juice now here two games in a row, playing better fits magic and full effect. Meanwhile, the Bills take the tough loss against the Browns. They have trouble getting the offense going. Josh Allen continues to be inaccurate. They for some reason kind of abandoned their run game earlier.
You know, Devin Singletary, I believe only got eight carries on the game. So a little bit of a strange game. But the Bills have a chance to bounce back here in Miami laying six over under thirty nine. What are your thoughts?
Yeah, I guess my thoughts are I'm surprised this is at six.
I guess I'm The Dolphins have quietly been just they dominate against the spread team. They've covered five weeks in a row after starting out zero to four, and they've just been continuing to get big numbers.
And I guess I'm a little surprised.
That the bookmakers or the public in general. I mean, the public's kind of been backing them too as a dog. I'm surprised this is at six. I think it'll get bet down a little bit maybe, But yeah, I don't know. This is a tough game for me to wrap my head around as far as like, why you're making Josh Allen a six point road favorite.
I get it, the Bills are still a.
Better team, but six points in Miami, I don't know. Miami has kind of quietly been a tough place to play. I feel like they do well against these division opponents late in the season. Yeah, we'll see, but it feels a little high to me.
No, you know, that's interesting because to me this felt about right. I mean, I get it completely. You know, the Dolphins have certainly been playing well on both sides of the ball the last several weeks. I mean, they jumped out to that big lead in Pittsburgh on Monday Night football. You know, that's before beating the Jets and then winning this past week against the Colts the Bills.
You know, in the end, the first time these two teams played, it was pretty close for the most part, and then the Bills kind of ran away at the end of the game, so I could see something like that happening. But you know, in the end, this is around where I kind of expected it to be, as you get these spreads, which are you know, closer to normal now with the Dolphins rather than the crazy things
that we were seeing there. If you're under a touchdown, I think I'm fine with it because I think you know the Bills, you know their defense, you know, as much as the Dolphins have been able to move the ball a little bit, I mean they're completely they have no running game whatsoever. I mean, you saw Kaylin Blage yesterday, you know, averaging you know, getting twenty carries and averaging two yards per carry is basically what you could expect
from them, you know. And again they lost Preston Williams as well, so it's basically Devontae Parker and mikea SICKI they just they don't have as many weapons. I feel like a couple of weeks ago it might have been a little different, even with you know, Kenyan Drake or even Mark Walton there and Preston Williams again was playing very well, so I think given sort of the lack of weapons that they had, the Bills coming off a loss, where you know, with the Bills in their playoff push,
they need to win this game. I'm really six struck me as about right. So I'm interested that you felt like it was a little bit high. So if you were making it, what would you think more like four four and a half something like that.
Yeah, yeah, I'm not not like crazy.
I guess I'm just I you know, I have these moments where it's just like Ryan Fitz fitsmagic, Like how can you bet against this guy?
So in my head that's probably my own kind of personal bias. But you're you're right.
I mean they're much better coach team. Kind of a little disappointing performance in Cleveland. They you know, they should hit that field goal. You definitely let some points on the board. So yeah, I mean they are the better team. But yeah, six six felt a little high. But you're right, this Dolphins team under if it's under a touchdown is I don't know, it's tougher to back when it was a lot easier to call these previous weeks when they were getting giant spreads.
Hey, you don't have to abandon your conviction. Man, I mean, that's a totally that's a totally no.
No.
I mean I guess I'm going back and forth in my head. I'm like, eh, but yeah, I do think it's a little high. I would say I would have if I was setting the spread, I would have said it like four and a half.
Yeah, I think that's fair. And again, you know, when you're within you know, when you're above three and below seven, it's really not that huge a deal necessarily, regardless of which way it moves. But look, in the end, it's it's roughly fifty to fifty right here with the money and the number of bets that are being placed. So this, you know, seems like right around the right number here coming in. So it's gonna be interesting to see how the line moves there. Let's move on to the Saints
at the Bucks. Saints here are laying five and a half with the over under at fifty one and a half. Mentioned earlier, the Saints came out real flat off their by their offensive line played terribly, They could not run the ball, the defense wasn't great, and now it sounds like Marshaun Latimore is probably gonna miss at least a few games with what I believe is a thigh injury. Meanwhile, the Bucks eke out a win against the Cardinals. You basically you know exactly what the Bucks are gonna do
essentially in a game. It's just a matter of if Winston's turnovers are gonna be deep in his own territory and get like six points for the defense, or whether or not they're gonna be enough to not kill the game for the Bucks. They're gonna put up a ton of points, they're gonna stop the run, they're gonna allow passing yards up the wazoo, and Winston's gonna have at least one killer turnover if not too so. Look, these
two teams know each other well. Thoughts at that number five and a half over under a fifty one and a half in Tampa.
Yeah, I mean, uh yeah, that makes sense.
Maybe goes down a little bit, but yeah, I mean you nailed the key matchups. Normally I wouldn't factor in a cornerback into the spread, but I think this matchup, in particular Latimore not being there is.
Huge for the Bucks. I mean, you nailed it. The way they score points is through the air.
To Mike Evans and you know, to Godwin and the way the other teams score points is also through the air when Tampa Bay throws it and they get interceptions a great field position, So a guy like Latimore not being on the field, I think, to me actually is worth something factoring in the spread, or at least when
you're thinking about betting this game. The Bucks are an interesting team because they played a lot away from Raymond James Stadium, so you know, they've had eight games but not a ton of ben at home, so it's tough to kind of get a handle on how this team is at home.
And then the Saints. Yeah, it's one.
Thing to have kind of a letdown game coming out of the by lost their division opponent, but there was some stuff that was pretty troubling, just Drew Brees's accuracy.
I mean, he looked very good in that game before the bye.
But I don't know if they hand has bothered him the thumb, but he looked pretty inaccurate. And you know, Tampa Bay is a much different place to play than inside at the Dome, so we'll be interesting.
For sure here.
Yeah, I think part of it was just that Breeze was under so much pressure, which you know he isn't often. Again, I think they sacked him six times in the game, which was pretty shocking. Again, given how little pressure Falcons right from the Falcons, it doesn't usually happen for them, so you know, it could have been that. But yeah, look, he didn't look great. I don't know if Kamara looked,
you know that great. Again. They had trouble running the ball, which I'm sure they're going to have trouble this week too because the Bucks. That's one thing that the Bucks do. But for me, I don't know, man, I could see this just I could see Peyton being pissed and Breeze being pissed and there being a lot of offense coming out, you know, in the passing game here and again vice versa. You know, the Saints they have a great run defense. The pass defense is okay, but you take Latimore out
of that game there other cornerbacks are not good. It is not something. And especially you've got two elite wide receiver with Evans and Godwin, and good to see oj Howard finally get back involved now that he was back healthy. You know, he's got a missing person's report out him all year, so you know, this is a game where you know, I know the over under is high at
fifty one and a half. It kind of feels like to me, and I said the same thing this, you know, past weekend where I felt like, man, it's going to be tough to find an over under that I'm not going to like the over even though I usually like unders. On the Cardinals Bucks game, and again it hit because it's just what's going to happen. The Bucks are like just a dream for overs because they have the perfect sort of set up there, so perfect formula.
Yeah, you can score at ease and also help the other team score.
So right, and even if you're like, well, you know, you don't know whether or not it's going to get there, Winston will give you a pick six, He'll throw one in for you just to just to make sure you get there. Let's move on here to the Cardinals at the forty nine ers. Forty nine ers are laying thirteen and a half points with the over under at forty five and a half. Cardinals coming off that tough loss we just talked about against the Bucks, and Patrick Peterson
heard his case. Half in this game, I'm not sure if I'll need to miss it or how serious it is. I haven't seen anything yet. Today. The running game struggles predictably against the Bucks. But you know, in particular, David Johnson looks terrible. He barely touches the ball. He can't get anything going Kenyan Drake largely, it's the way here. Meanwhile, we have not yet seen the forty nine ers play this week. They played tonight against the Seahawks, but sounds
like George Kuittle may miss the game. He's doubtful coming in. But they are getting much healthier back on the offensive line, and I think Kyle Yuschek is probably going to return here. That makes a big difference for them, especially in the running game. So they were ten point favorites in Arizona a couple of weeks ago on that Thursday night, thirteen and a half here with the over under at forty five and a half. How do you feel?
Yeah, I mean again, that seems that that line totally makes sense. I think they just took that, you know, ten points and then kind of threw in three there for a home field.
But it is interesting.
Again, I think if you like the Cardinals, bet is at thirteen and a half because it's not gonna it's not gonna go over two scores, and there's a I think there's a chance that if Seattle beats San Francisco or upsets them, this gets knocked down maybe closer to ten and a half. I would be shocked if anything happens to in tonight's game that would warrant them moving the Cardinals over fourteen points.
So yeah, that's no question. If they come out tonight and they just blast the Seahawks right and they written by like twenty points, do you think you think it still wouldn't get over two touchdowns.
I think they would move it to fourteen because I don't know, man this. I think it would take a lot to get over fourteen and a half because it's a division game and we've seen Kyler Murray in garbage time be able to move the ball up and down the field, and we're you know, it's in the back of Better's minds the Thursday Night game only a few weeks ago, where they covered the back door pretty easily there late, So I think it would be I'd be shocked if they made it over fourteen at any point.
I think this is probably more inclined to go down if they lose, if they if they win by like thirty five points, you're right, maybe they do have to have to move it. I guess this is also based on the fact that I kind of I think Seattle hangs around in this Monday night game, so I think it'll probably end up closing at thirteen and a half. But I could see if Seattle wins out right, I could see getting closer to ten and a half, eleven something like that.
Yeah, and I kind of like the Cardinals here. I don't love them, but thirteen and a half, that's just so huge. And I mean you kind of pointed out with Murray there. I mean, they were pretty dominated in that game on Thursday night, and then just at the end, you know that you had the really long touchdown to Isabelle I believe, and this all of a sudden, it was a really tight game going into the end, even though it looked like the forty nine ers were just gonna,
you know, blow the roof off. So it is one of these games where you get a point spread that high, teams that know each other, you could easily see the back door cover.
So yeah, I mean, if Cliff Kingsbury doesn't ice his defense before halftime, Right, what happens in this game?
It could have been even closer.
So I actually, you know, not to get off on the tangent, but I actually I took a lot out of that, the fact that they came out in the second half and played well, because you do that, and that's just like you just feel like you're just the whole team. Spur would be broken, right you get a big fourth? Yeah, yeah, they rallied. So it did showed
me a little something both about the team and Kingsbury. Frankly, the fact that they were able to make the comeback despite that awful, awful timeout that he called right at the end of the half. Before we finish up with our last few games, I want tomind everyone about our November giveaway. It is a signed Odell Beckham junior Cleveland Brown's helmet. It is running through November thirtieth, so you can go to bettingpros dot com slash contest for more details.
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with thousands of auctions every day. And when you go there, use our promo code Betting Pros and win a free five dollars voucher instantly. That's Pristineauction dot com p RI I s t I n E Auction dot com. All right, let's move on here to the Patriots at the Eagles. Patriots currently laying three with the over under at forty four and a half. That's dropped, by the way, a little bit from the look ahead which was forty six and now it's forty four and a half and the
line was three and a half. It's dropped down to three. Patriots coming off their first loss of the season against the Ravens last week, now they've got to buy to lick their wounds. Meanwhile, the Eeles, also off of by and their win against the Bears. Things still just don't
look quite right for the team, especially on offense. It's inconsistent without the Sean Jackson stretching the field he use now on ir Alshon Jeffery is still a little banged up now, I believe with his ankle, but they're getting a little healthier in their secondary. So what do you think here about the Pats laying three and the over under at forty four and a half.
Uh, yeah, I'm surprised it's three. I thought it would be closer to four or four and a half. I mean, we certainly saw what happened the last time the Eagles were an underdog and both teams had a week to prepare Super Bowl fifty two. So this is a is a very different team. You nailed it, Like, the offense has really struggled to find its identity in the passing game.
I think they're running game.
They've really kind of figured that out, and Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard are kind of coming along in their big wins. They've done it with running the ball and being very physical like the did in Green Bay. The passing game just hasn't gotten into a great flow. I mean, zero production really out of the receivers. Al Sean and Nelson Aguilard. Maccollins is just I don't know, he's just.
Getting his fitbit steps in out there. I don't know what he's doing.
I think he's like setting the record for most snaps with combined with least production on the season.
I think it's insane, like not even targets.
It's one thing of like, okay, the guy's got a case of the drops. They don't even look at them. I don't know why they're running three y receiver sets. If you're not going to pass to them, just replace Goddard or you know. I mean, so just like bring Goddard in as the third receiver and just split him out. It makes no sense that matt Collins has seen the field.
Now they bring in Jordan Matthews, who, again not amazing by any means, but at least someone that you know that Wentz will probably end up throwing the ball to.
On the other side, the Pats.
I mean, historically you love to take the Pats coming off a loss or coming off a bye A certainly big game for them. I think they'll be fired up for this game as the Eagles are as well. Their kind of playoff lives are on the line these next few games, So yeah, I thought it would be a little bit higher. I thought it would be closer to four. So I'm a little surprised that three. If you like the Pats, I don't see it getting below a field goal.
So if you can get a minus three now at decent juice, I think bet it now.
I completely agree with that. I was surprised to see the number where it's at. I love them lang three, I completely love them. I just don't feel like this is really something that the Eagle are going to be able to do. They're going to run the ball, which you know, you can run a little bit on the Patriots if that's if that's the spot to attack them. But it's not like they have this dominant rushing attack.
I mean, Jordan Howard is good, Miles Sanders is good, but it's not like, you know, you don't have Ezekiel Elliott or Dalvin Cook or anything back there. And you know the Pats, you know, you give them an extra week to prepare for that secondary Who cares that they are not gonna be able to run the ball. That's what the Eagles do. They stop the run. Who cares? I mean the Pats can barely run the ball as is anyway, regardless of the matchup. You know, once they
lost James Devlin, it was all downhill. So they're going to pass. They're going to figure out a way to beat it. So for me, yeah, I love the Pets. At three, I was surprised that the number wasn't higher, and certainly I don't see it getting any lower. So if you like the Pats, like both of us do, I'd get in on it now.
Yeah, I mean I would say this.
I think for the Eagles, their formula to victory I think comes through the defensive line in.
That pass rush.
It's slowly like Fletcher Cox came into the season banged up, and he slowly gotten healthier and healthier.
And looked more productive and more productive.
And you saw kind of even what they did to Chicago's offensive line. Now, granted, Chicago way worse on offense than the New England Patriots, but I think if they can get pressure to Brady, you've seen this year that he has had trouble dealing with it. So I think if they're gonna win this game, it's going to be through the defensive line.
Yeah, No, that makes sense. And certainly, you know, hopefully Jim Schwartz can you know, hold off his just inclination to blitz every single play and just you know, try to get pressure with their line without all the blitzing, because you know, the one thing that Brady can do
is he can beat the blitz. But if you can get pressure on him, as you know, has been the book on him four years, the thirty years that he's been you know, torching my jets in this league, it's said, if you can get pressure on him with just a four man rush, he gets a little, you know, a little shaky in the pocket. So we'll see if the Eagles can do that. Moving on to the Bengals. At the Raiders, Raiders here laying ten and a half points,
the over unders have forty and a half. I mean, I still feel like, just to show you kind of like the natural kind of bias, I feel like that I still have in my head, I'm like, Raiders ten and a half favorites, Like why what is that? Without realizing that the Raiders are kind of slowly becoming a pretty good football team. I mean, their offensive line has been dominant. It opens up huge holes for Josh Jacobs it allows Derek Carr plenty of time to throw. They've
got enough playmakers on offense. Tyre Williams not sure if he's one hundred percent still battling from that planter fasciatis, but Darren Waller is elite hunter Renfro starting to come on. Za Jones is a body who's out there and their defense kind of just holding their own a bit. You know, they're not getting embarrassed, at least unlike the Bengals who were completely embarrassed by the Ravens this past week. At least Joe Mixon gets a lot of work and he
gets going there. But it's a little bit unfair to judge Ryan Finley off this game. I feel like it's a really tough, you know, to just be like, hey, here you go, come after a defense that knows us really well and that's probably gonna be ready to destroy us. So the defense, though, it continues just they can't tackle, they continue to be a sieve. So how do you feel here a big number, Raiders laying ten and a half within over under at forty eight and a half.
Yeah, I think I had the same preseason workup that you did on the Raiders I was just so out on Raiders and Grewdon and I thought it was really going to be a disaster, and they've seemingly kind of righted the ship. I finally adjusted, you know, kind of where I had them at and had them last week against the Chargers. Now they're coming off Thursday night rest, which I always like to factor that in a little bit, because you know that mini buy if you look at teams coming off Thursday night.
I don't have it in front of me.
But it's usually in that fifty five to sixty percent against the spread, so you want to get a little point or two there. I wouldn't be surprised that this line goes up a little bit because of how bad the Bengals looked in a game where they should have had a little bit of motivation. They were at home, huge dogs, and the Ravens just came in and cleaned
their clock out. Historically, in the NFL, if your team, if you're a team who's underperforming the spread by more than twenty one points and then you're getting more points the next week, usually there's value on that team. I don't know if that's the case with this Bengals team. They're gonna go out west non division opponents. I could see some motivation issues for this Bengals team and the Raiders.
They're kind of in the quietly in the AFC West, Yeah, you know, running, so don't look now, they're kind of in that mix.
I think, you know, they got a couple of home games.
Back to back here, so I think they're really in a in the driver's seat in a weird way.
Definitely didn't see that coming.
So I think the Bengals line could go up. If you like the Raiders, I don't know if you're gonna do better than ten and a half.
I'm telling you that, when all of a sudden done in this game, I'm going to be wind up backing the Bengals, and I'm going to be really mad at myself, like I pretty much am every single time I backed Gongles. Yeah, I agree with you. It's hard to say. I mean, look, I could see some sharp money because I'm sure you know, the some models that people are gonna have are going to say this should probably be closer than it necessarily is, So I could see some money coming in. But I'm
inclined to agree that. I don't see this getting back down to the key number of ten, and I could see it easily going up a point or two. So I'm basically going to try to resist the urge to take the Bengals as long as I possibly can, and hope I get more to like twelve or something like that, in which case I'll be like, well, there's too much value. I cannot do this.
But well, yeah, and sorry real quick, Like a couple things that jump out of me right away here is look at how the Bengals struggled against the tight end.
And just poor tackling. And if you have poor tackling against Josh Jacobs and Waller, I think that's right, you know, that's that's the bread and butter for the Raiders team.
It's really the tackling man. It's so and I've talked about this a couple of times, but you know, because it hasn't always been terrible, Like it wasn't that terrible, like in their first game against the Seahawks, and then they came out in the second game against the forty nine ers, it was like, do you know how to tackle? Right now? What's happening? And it looked like that again against the Ravens. So yeah, I completely agree. I get it, but you know, look, the Raiders defense is certainly not
you know, impenetrable by any means. You know, they're pretty good against the run, but mixing you know, whether it was the Ravens taking their foot off the gas, I mean, he certainly at least he got the workload and he's a talented back and he was able to you know, certainly put up a lot of stats in yesterday's game, so you know, and finley, he obviously didn't look good, but he was able to move the ball at bit.
So you know, I do think they'll be able to put up points here, but it's certainly something where I probably don't want to. But in the end, as long as it stays above ten, I'm probably gonna wind up holding my nose and taking the Bengals. And then you and I are going to talk the next time you're on and say, can you believe I'm still looking to take the Bengals on a terrible bet. Let's move on here to the Bears. At the Rams. Rams are laying six and a half. The over under has come down
from forty two to forty and a half. The Bears finally show a little life on offense. After a slow start against the lines, yesterday, they lighted up offensively a little bit with Mitchell Trubisky throwing for three touchdowns. Defense continues to be adequate, not spectacular, but certainly adequate. Meanwhile, the Rams they're just an utter disaster offensively. I mean, Blake Bortle's played in the game against the Steelers. That really should tell you all you need to know about
where they're at. They've had an injured and a poor offensive line all year long. It got worse yesterday with some more injuries. They just cannot protect jar Golf and that is a worrisome thing with Khalil Mack getting ready to play. The defense does continue to play well here. I mean, you know, since they added Jalen Ramsey especially, they've they've been pretty solid. But things are just not there right now for the Rams. So it's a pretty big spread. I mean, they are at home. I believe
this is the Sunday night game. So lank six and a half with the over under at forty and a half.
Yeah, I mean, I guess this feels a little high initially, and again it's it's we're in a weird spot with Trubisky. I mean, the guy throws three touchdowns and no interceptions.
But if you have any Bears fan, there's no.
Way they would be happy if you named Chase Daniel to the start for this game and you highlighted a great matchup and one I'll probably be looking to dive into more on my podcast, and that's the Rams offensive line. I was all over Pittsburgh last week because I thought, you know, TJ. Watt, he'd be able to get some pressure on Golf and Golf doesn't do well with pressure.
And the offensive line has just really struggled to protect him and to give him time.
I mean like he really needs a lot of time to make the throws and to have Sean McVay explain what the defense is he needs. He needs a lot of time on the offensive side of the ball, and the Bears should be able to get some pressure against the Rams.
Chicago fans could show.
Up there in Los Angeles. I think the I think the Bears fans will show up for a game. You know, if you're living in Chicago, you're looking for an excuse to go out to Los Angeles to watch this game. So I think this could get down a little not certainly down to a field goal, but I wouldn't be surprised if this gets down to four and a half. I don't see enough people backing the Rams to move this up to seven. If anything, I think it'll go down a little bit.
No, I agree, I don't think it's going to get to seven. I just you know, this is a tough game because you know, you look at it and you really really see that the Rams are going to struggle to do anything offensively because Golf is just going to be running for his life. And again, I assume Randon Cooks is going to be out for this game. Josh Reynold's played okay yesterday, but I assume Cooks, who's still suffering from the concussions, if he plays it all this year.
I really would be shocked if he plays this game. And you know, the Bears Trubisky, he was kind of like a batter in baseball that got really hot for like a really brief strift. Right It was like suddenly things looked okay, and he he kind of was like, Oh, all of a sudden, I'm comfortable this. I could just do this and this and this. But I don't think that you can expect that to last. As you mentioned, I'm sure Bears fans are surely looking for someone else
to take over his quarterback at some point. To me, again, with forty two, I liked that over under at forty and a half. It's low, but I'm still kind of feeling the under on it because I do think the Scubia game where neither team is going to be able to score, so of either of these lines, you know, the spread it seems high to me. I agree, but I don't know if I have the intestinal forty two to take the Bears. But I do think I still like the under, even though it's dropping to forty and
a half. I still think above forty, I still think I like it because I could see this, you know again, being a game that's just not particularly high scoring. Let's move on here to our final game, the Chiefs at the Charters on Monday Night football. The Chiefs here are laying three and a half. That's down from four and a half and the over unders at fifty three. Really tough loss for the Chiefs. Yesterday we talked about it.
They had that game for the vast majority of it, but then the you know, the offense look pretty standard. Patrick Mahomes back under center, running game is still a little weird. You had Lashaw McCoy inact of a healthy scratch. Damian Williams was final, though he did fumble. The issue is really their defense. They can't stop anyone. They had success in recent weeks a bit more when they were blitzing all the time, but it's certainly not an elite
unit and far from it. Meanwhile, the Charters come off the Thursday night loss to the Raiders probably the worst game I've ever seen Philip Rivers played. I said that on last night podcast. I mean, he was just brutal in that entire game, especially in the last two minutes. But you know, their offensive philosophy, they've kind of with the switch and coordinators, they've gotten back to what they
do best, which is running the ball. And now that Melvin Gordon has kind of had his quote unquote you know, preseason, he kind of looks back to where he was. They continue to struggle defensively, though a bit better with Melvin Ingram out there, but they have had injuries all year that killed them. So how do you feel here the Chiefs on the road at the Chargers, Although again there really is no home field for the Chargers at all.
They're laying three and a half with an over under really high of fifty three.
Yeah, I mean, I yeah, this is gonna be all Chiefs fans for Monday Night because Chiefs Nation definitely travels, so that's always annoying to play, you know, to bet on a home dog and then it's not really it doesn't really feel like a home game. The Chargers have really struggled at home against the spread. You mentioned it worst game I've seen out of Philip Rivers.
But I think Philip Rivers he's been struggling and.
This could kind of be one of the last seasons for Philip Rivers. I mean that two thousand and four draft class does feel like it's kind of on its last legs. So I don't know how many great games he has in the tank. But I think if you're a Chargers backer, you're excited at the matchup because you have Melvin Gordon and Austin Eckler, and those those are two running backs that the Chiefs really I think will have trouble handling.
You know.
I mean that was the Tennessee's game plan is like, hey, get Henry involved. And use that running game to set up the passing game. I think this could get down to three. I would be surprised if it goes below three because you still have Tyreek Hill and Patrick Mahomes, you know, Andy Reid with a little extra time to prepare. Granted, the Chargers also have that, but I think, you know, Andy Reid is a much better coach than Anthony Lynn,
So interesting matchups to kind of look at. I think if the Chargers are looking to cover and win, you're going to do it through a running the ball. But yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if this gets down to three four and a half, which I saw some places opened and up ass that seemed too high to me, And I wouldn't be completely surprised if it goes under three. Yeah, I think if you like the Chiefs, I would wait.
I don't see it going too much higher for the Chargers.
Yeah. This strikes me as something where I think the public is probably going to like the Chiefs and the sharp beetterers are probably going to like the Chargers at anything above a field goal because you know it is a matchup here with it sets up pretty well for the Chargers. Again, they know what they're doing now, they're going to run the ball and again, you know, look, Rivers has not been good. The only excuse I will make for him just you know, whether or not he's
you know, starting to near the end, which I mean eventually. Well, I mean he's in his late thirties. Of course, not everybody can be Brady, but their offensive line has been terrible and he's running for his life NonStop. But Keenan Allen did look healthier at least in this past game. Hunter Henry has really really been good since he's been back.
They still have Mike Williams. So it is a game frankly that you know, other than the fact that Patrick Mahomes can you know, whip off like you know, just a short you know past to mcole Hardman who just outruns everybody, or Tyreek Hill can just outrun everybody, it is a game that I feel like kind of sets up, okay for the Chargers coming off the Mini BI with the Thursday night game, but it's not I don't really know whether or not I'm gonna be able to pull
the trigger again. I do think that this is probably not I could see it maybe going to four, depending on how the money comes in, but more likely I agree that I think would be more like a field goal. So I don't think there's any rush to bet on this one. But at three and a half again, I think you're going to see more of the public backing the Chiefs and more of the sharp money probably back in the Chargers.
Yeah that makes sense.
All right, Well, I really appreciate you coming back on seoing. Remind everyone where they can find more of you and your work.
Awesome.
Yeah, we'll check us out over at sports Gambling podcast dot com.
We do a weekly DFS.
Weekly college and weekly NFL picks podcast. And yeah, give me a follow on Twitter at Shawn T. Green or follow the podcast at gambling Podcasts.
All right, man, hopefully we can do it at least once more and you can be the first four time guest. Oh yeah, oh yeah, you're making history. All right. All right, thanks again for coming on.
Awesome.
Thanks again to the sponsor of today's show, bet MGM. Remember to download the bet MGM Sports app and use the promo code Harris to get your risk free first wager of up to five hundred dollars, and don't forget to rate and review the podcast and send a screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com for your chance to win a signed Odell Beckham Junior Brown's helmet. We'll be back later this week giving some of our best bets for Week eleven. I'll talk to you then