Hey there everyone, Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast, brought to you by Bett MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. It is time for our early look at next week's lines. And with me today to break it all down is Dave Cocain, a longtime Las Vegas sports handicapper and host of the LV Sports Line. You can find him on Twitter at Dave Coke and Dave. How's it going?
Pretty good?
Coming out of a crazy weekend in the NFL where all the home teams covered at least going into the Monday night game. And I'm not a trivia guy, so I don't know the last time that happened, but it's obviously a very rare occurrence.
Now. Technically though the Jaguars were home right in London, I don't know what we do about.
That, right, Yeah, that's we'll call that a neutral.
I think we'll call that a neutral. I agree as well, even though they've been over there pretty much every year since we started doing it. Well, let's get into week ten here. Dave and I are going to be using the consensus odds over at Bettingpros dot com. You know by now that the consensus odds are an aggregation of the odds that are available on the market. As always, there are going to be differences in the various sports books,
so shop around for the best odds. All right, Dave, let's side right in here with the Chargers at the Raiders on Thursday night. This one has moved a little bit. When I checked at the lookad line looked like it was Raiders minus one. Right now we are showing the consensus odds as Chargers minus one, the over under a staate at forty seven and a half. The Chargers, just when you think they're dead, they come out with a
strong defensive performance against the Packers. They do enough on offense to put up points, largely relying on the run. And as for the Raiders, they continue to play well, at least offensively beating the Lions on Sunday. The offensive line is strong, Josh Jacobs looks like a star, Derek Carr spreading the ball around well between Darren Waller and Tyrell Williams. So now Chargers laying one over under at forty seven and a half. Any thoughts on that?
You know it's gonna be interesting to see how the Raiders perform under what now will be a little bit of pressure, because I think up till this point, the Raiders have been a nice surprise, but now you know they're in the hunt at this point, and it becomes a different ballgame when you're expected to do well rather than when you're just kind of free wheeling out there and not expected to do much. Derek Carr is certainly
playing at a high level. I mean the play he made on the game winning pass against the Lions with spectacular. I think he scrambled for like twenty one yards before he threw the ball and completed, and the Raiders defense stood up at the end when they had to. The Chargers, though, going into this season, were looked upon as one of the better teams in the league, and they just couldn't get out of their own way. Early. He had some
really tough breaks. Looks like they're kind of rounding into form, and I think that does kind of explain why the betting action has been what it is.
I think the.
Sharp, sharp money, which is usually early money, is going to the Chargers here and I can't disagree with that.
Yeah, and again, you don't think though that the line's going to get anywhere to like the key number of three, right, I mean we're going to be staying within a field goal at this point.
Oh yeah, no, this will be I think I could see two or maybe even two and a half, but I don't think it gets to the key number three.
Yeah. Chargers always make me a little nervous, just because you never know what's gonna happen when they come into a game. Sometimes they show up, sometimes they don't. But it's good to see kind of the Raiders getting a little more respect. You know, against the Packers. They got blown out, but they really weren't that far away from keeping that a close game. Out the game that a lot of sharp betterers were really on the Raiders side of it, and again they really you know, Derek Carr
fumbled through the end zone there. It could have been a huge swing in that game.
So it was a massive swing because the Raiders. I just kind of we're in a state of shock after that, and Rogers exploited.
They just got killed.
But no, I mean Oakland had a couple of red zones that they didn't cash into that game. They played good football. John Gruden is showing that he didn't forget how to coach while he was a broadcaster.
Yeah, well, you know, maybe you shouldn't be running the team in terms of personnel moves, but certainly as a coach he's doing a pretty good job this year. Let's move on to the Ravens at the Bengals. The Ravens here are laying nine and a half and the over under at forty six and a half. Both have moved slightly from look aheadline when I saw the Ravens were laying ten. They come off the huge win on Sunday Night Football against the Patriots as most sharp better is expected.
I mean that line dropped roughly two points from the open defense is getting healthier and stronger. Now you have the winless Bengals. They are coming off of bye. They're switching quarterbacks here, going to Ryan Finley. AJ Green might be back, So there are a lot of variables here. I mean, it's a possible letdown spot, I guess for the Ravens coming off that big win, but they're obviously a much more talented team.
Well they are, and that's the problem is can the Bengals hang in for sixty minutes? To me, this would be one of those games where if you think, boy, you know, the Ravens could be ripe here because they're coming off their biggest win in a long time, and they're facing a winless team and now the only winless team in the Bengals, and that's you know, look, you're gonna get a big effort out of the Bengals. I
don't think there's any question about that. The problem is, I don't know if they can hang in for sixty minutes. So if I were looking at this one, and I'm not locking this in as a play, but I might consider Bengals first half or maybe even first quarter, you would think the Bengals will come up with a lot of energy here, especially with Finley on the field. I think that's just an energy boost for the team, and
it's a pride spot for Cincinnati at this point. Pride may not win you the full game, but can you win you a partial bet?
How do you as a handicapper, how do you look at it when you have somebody like Finley coming in. I mean, we don't really know what he's going to necessarily look like. Do you just go with the energize the team sort of angle? I mean, how do you how do you really think about the number when you have a new quarterback like that.
Well, it depends on the situation.
I mean, if if Ryan Finley's stepping in for I don't know, Russell Wilson, then that's that's a pretty bad thing. He's stepping in for Andy Dalton, who at this point is not a starting quarterback. So I don't know that there's anything that I mean, I don't know how Finley's going to perform. He looked okay in the preseason. That was obviously not against anything sophisticated. But can he be worse than Daltlet at this point?
I don't know.
Yeah, And again, if they get aj green back, that'll certainly be a little bit of a boon. Haven't heard anything yet on his practice reports, but that's certainly in Let's move on here to the Bills at the Browns. Browns here are laying two and a half. This has been bouncing back and forth between two and two and a half all day, and our consensus ods the over unders dropped by about two points. It was at forty two and a half and I looked at it earlier in the day. It's now forty and a half. I'm
a little surprised. So I'm gonna really be interested to hear your thoughts here, because you know, the Browns have just done nothing to show any cohesiveness offensively at all. I mean, they'll get cream Hunt back here, but it's selpful that that makes much of a difference. And the Bills, meanwhile, they continue to put up strong defensive efforts. They got Devin Singletary way involved this weekend against the Redskins. They opened up the offense a little bit, so, you know,
to me, it struck me. I know the Browns are home, but you know, laying two and a half, I was a little surprised by that. I expected it to be closer to a pick them.
Well, the puppup's probably got a bet buffalo at this point because the Bills are six and two and they're not blowing anybody away, but they are six and two. The Browns, meanwhile, have burned a lot of people's money all year long, and I think people, as the masses least, they're going to be sick of backing him at this point. I can't back Cleveland. They're two and six, and let's call it straight Baker Mayfield at this point is a
backup quarterback. I'm not saying he won't be terrific down the road, but if you watch him now and he has no clue as to what he's doing, his reids are terrible. And I'm sure he hasn't lost confidence because he's got that swagger, but I wonder if the team's lost confidence in it at this point because he's just making bad decisions and doesn't look like a number one quarterback.
At this point.
It's tough for me to back Cleveland. The team doesn't seem to have any focus. Freddy Kitchens has done a terrible job with the team, and they've got no leadership on the field, and by the way, they lead the league in penalties, so there's not much discipline there either. You can't see me on Cleveland. I don't think I want Buffalo at this point because I think they're a bit of a fraud.
At six and two.
You know, they're an okay team, but they're really not a seven to fifty team, So it's probably a game that won't make my card.
Yeah, no, I completely agree. This is a game that i'd stay from. You know, the thing with the Browns, there are a couple of things. One, they have such a combustible group of personalities that you knew, you know, they were. I think they were the most bet team to win the Super Bowl, and I think they were the most Mayfield was the most bet guy to win the MVP. So they've obviously burned a lot of people
going in here. They have such a combustible group of players at this point that you just can't see them figuring their way out of this. And again they're they're already, I believe, two and six, so this season is pretty much over. I did think, you know, against New England, you know, it seemed kind of fluky, you know that they didn't cover that game because you know, you had that the ball kicked out of Chubb's hands and stuff
like that. Like I felt like they easily could have covered that game, and so I was willing to give them another shot. But I agree against Gohead.
Here's the thing.
You could say they could have in a whole bunch of their games this year. Sure, and they had that one great game against the Ravens when they looked like world beaters, right, but at some point you just have to say, well could have doesn't mean they will And all I know is the books are smiling at the money they're gonna make with the Browns and the Bears, because those are two teams that cut a tremendous run
of the market. The Bears always do out here. They're just an extremely popular team in The Browns, as you said, drew a ton of money early and looks like the books are going to.
Be keeping all that cash.
Yeah for now, you know, I'm not going anywhere near him either side. I mean again, against the Broncos, they just look terrible, and as you said, you know, Baker Mayfield just you know, he can't get off his first read. He just does not look at all, you know. And whether he's actually lost confidence or whether he's just playing that way remains to be seen. But either way, I agree, it's not a game that I really want to get involved in because I also don't trust the Bills, like
you said, falcons here at the Saints. This has been bouncing all over the place right now. The consensus odds are at minus thirteen. I've seen this from minus twelve to minus thirteen and a half. The over unders had fifty one. Two teams at about the polar opposites of the NFL World. The Falcons a complete disaster. Defensively, they should get Met Ryan back here, but I likely won't matter against the Saints, and with Drew Brees back, the
offense looked about as expected against the Cardinals. Soft matchup, but still they should get Alvin Kamara back here. Their defense is playing incredibly well. This is a big line, But how do you feel about it? Saints laying thirteen over under at fifty one.
I don't want any part of the Falcons. I'm actually surprised Quinn's still coaching the team. I thought they'd make the change during the bye week because it's over okay, and they can't stop anything, so good luck against the Saints, and with New Orleans playing outstanding defense, I wouldn't think Matt Ryan's gonna have a great day. I could see New Orleans pulling away and winning this one by a lot.
Yeah, I mean, I get nervous at anything when you're talking about a spread this high, But at this point, the Falcons have shown absolutely no reason to expect them to be able to hang in this game. You're right, the fact that Quinn is still the head coach of the Falcons is one of the most mind boggling things in the world. I mean, for three weeks, I've been waiting for the midweek coaching change going on, and he
just keeps hanging on. They're doing all these minor changes during their bye week, like changing their punter for the fifth time and things like that, but none of it's
really getting right. I agree, you certainly can't back the Falcons at any point, and it is a big number, but at this point, yeah, I would lean towards the Saints if you're talking about below two touchdowns, but it certainly is something where in the end, you know, the injuries on the defensive side of the ball for the Falcons have just completely derailed their season, and they are capable of putting up points. But the Saints' defense is strong, and I think that in the end, I'm certainly not
back in the Falcons. Whether or not I would take the Saints at thirteen, I probably would feel okay with it under two touchdowns, but you know, it is certainly a bigger line.
Yeah, they'll be very popular to teasers.
I can guarantee you that absolutely. Giants at the Jets. This one opened at Giants laying one and now it is at two and a half. The over under stay is at forty three. We are recording this before the Giants Cowboys game on Monday night, but they'll likely continue to be down Stertling Shepherd as they are this week next week, considering that he's gone back into the concussion protocol. I would be surprised if he's out of it by next week. Meanwhile, the Jets are a complete disaster. They
lose to the winless Dolphins. Le'Veon Bell underwent and mri and is knee today. I don't I haven't seen anything on the results, but you know, hopefully it's not serious. The offensive line may be the worst in football right now that even this is no longer playing well. So how do you feel about this with you know, there's been significant movement here already, Giants playing two and a half over under at forty three.
And the Giants will be up for this game even though they're playing against the Cowboys, which is a big game. Look, this is still a neighborhood rivalry game. How can you back the Jets at this point? And I know, look betting against the obvious, or said I should say, betting the obvious either way in the NFL, maybe not a recipe for success long term, but there's no way with free money. I wouldn't bet the Jets at this point.
They're a train wreck. I think their coaches are one and done and they can't wait for the season.
To be over.
I guess you could make a case that they'll be embarrassed off the loss of the Dolphins, but they're just such a bad football team right now. In any game where they've got to win to cover the spread, I don't want them.
No, there's no way you could back the Jets here. I mean, sort of like the Falcons, and you know, in the end, the big thing was the Dolphins have absolutely no pass rush and Darnold was still running for his life. I mean, the offensive line is such a disaster that under no circumstances can you back the Jets in this game. I would feel finet the Giants, so long as it stays underneath a field goal, because again,
you know the team from top to bottom. I certainly hope as a Jets fan that Adam Gase is won and done, but they're certainly not getting it done anywhere close to you know, what was expected of them out of the preseason. And that's especially true. If Belle, you know, his if his knee injury is serious, which again we don't know anything about that yet, then they'll be a total disaster. But at this point, as long as it stays under a field goal, I'd be fine with it.
How in the world did they beat the Dallas Cowboys?
I mean, everybody sort of thinks that, right, that's what you go back to, How did they possibly possibly do that? It's really crazy And look, I you know, just speaking more as a Jets fan, unless it's that you know, somebody who who's thinking about the betting side of things. I've always liked Darnold. I thought that he has a bright future in the NFL. So when he first came back, I kind of I mean, I certainly liked him. I
think that Cowboys were laying seven in that game. I like the Jets in that game, and then when they won, I felt confident in them. Getting ten from the Patriots and even the following week getting six from the Jaguars. They look right now like they could not beat I'm trying to think of a you know, historic team that they you know, could beat. Right now, they really seem like the worst team in football at this point.
I make them a favorite against Rutgers.
All right, I'll take it. Look, I mean, if they're a favorite against anybody. You know, my six year old has a pretty decent pewee team, so you know, I think they could probably take them. Before we move on, I do want to tell everyone about the sponsor of
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and a half. The over under at forty eight and a half obviously a little up in the air in terms of whether Patrick Mahomes is going to return here. He's trending in the right direction, but we'll see as the team comes off the big win against the Vikings. The three and a half lines strikes me as a number that makes me think that handicappers are still expecting Mahomes to miss another game. Strikes me as it might be a little higher if Mahomes is playing the defense
for the Chiefs playing a little bit better. Steve Spagnelo is calling, you know, more blitzes. That seems to be working well for the teams. The Titans, meanwhile, they lose pretty handily to the Panthers. The offense continues to look, you know, at least competent behind Ryan Hannahill. Malcolm Butler does break his wrist here, so that's a little bit of a hit to the defense. How do you feel here about the Chiefs laying three and a half in the over under at forty eight and a half.
Chiefs are coming up two big games and you know they lost one but played well and then played well in one yesterday in thrilling fashion, against the Vikings.
This could be a tough spot.
Going on the road, and Tennessee is capable. They're not going to do it every week, but from from one week to the next, the Titans can line up with almost anybody and be competitive. I think this is going to be one of those games where the Titans give the Chiefs all they want. Obviously, it's if Mahomes doesn't play. Plus three and a half of the Titans at home looks really good. If he does, still not a terrible number,
although Mahomes makes things difficult, no question about that. But I think Tennessee is going to get kids city of Battle here and wouldn't shock me if they win this game.
This strikes me as a game where the public is going to be on the chief and the sharp money's going to be on the Titans. Right, So you're probably going to see like a seventy five to twenty five split or something in terms of the number of bets placed, but it's going to be closer to fifty to fifty in terms of the actual money that comes in. Would be my guest, right, I mean, regardless of who starts, and again, you know Mahomes if he plays, I don't think it would be reasonable to expect them to be
one hundred percent or anything like that. And again, coming off that big win, this might buy them another week to sort of take some time off. And I agree the Titans have played a little bit better than expected.
So yeah, I mean, but by.
No means a great team, and they're probably not going to be a playoff team, But they're one of those teams that on any given week can win. They also, unfortunately, on any given week, can lose. So you've got to hope that's not the case here. But this is not a team that normally is going to get blown out, especially at home.
Yeah, as a general matter, I always list the Titans as the one team I'm avoiding, regardless of what the spread is, just because I feel like I never know what we're going to see from them necessarily. But this is a spot if you stay over a field goal, particularly if more starts, It's a spot that I do kind of feel like I might be willing to back the Titans here because I could see them making game, especially since they're coming off kind of a subpar effort
here against the Panthers. Let's move on here to the Cardinals. At the Bucks. Right now, the Bucks are laying five in our consensus odds. It was at six earlier today when I checked. The over under has dropped half a point to fifty two and a half. I mean that's a pretty high over under here, and it's not surprising since you can pass pretty easily on both teams. The Bucks are not playing terribly. They could have easily won yesterday against the Seahawks and the week before against the
Titans if the refs don't blow that call. They continue, though, to have no pass defense whatsoever. They do stop the run pretty well, but the Cardinals the defense continues to struggle. But Kyler Murray was impressive against the forty nine ers despite the loss. He'll probably get David Johnson back here. They've added Kenyan Drake to add a little more punch to that running game. So how do you feel here? With the Bucks laying five and the high over under of fifty two and a half.
This is the game I wanted to talk about the most because Number one Arizona is going to give you sixty minutes every game, and you saw that against the forty nine ers last Thursday. I mean, if you've got a forty nine er ticket at halftime, you think you're sitting pretty and Arizona came back and really fought hard in that game. The other side of it is the Bucks, and you know, if Bruce Arians went back in a
retirement today might be an upgrade for the Bucks. I thought that was an absolutely awful decision at the end of regulation or toward the end of regulation to not go for two. And I understand the math says, well, you know, you make less than fifty percent on those two point convergency. It's supposed to kick the extra point there.
But there's exceptions. And here's the exceptions. If your face seeing Tom Brady, if you're facing Aaron Rodgers, if you're facing Drew Brees, if you're facing Russell Wilson, you don't want to go to overtime. You want to try and win the game. You're two and five. The Bucks hadn't stopped a thing in the second half of that game. Actually, from the late part of the first half. It's twenty one to seven, and they give up a touchdown on late in the first half and they were getting run over.
In the second half. You got to go for two in that spot. They didn't.
They should have lost the game in regulation, and then they did lose it in overtime, and once Arizona, excuse me, once Seattle won the coin flip, I knew I was dead with the Tampa Bay ticket that game.
I had the Bucks plus the points and see on that one.
I think that's a bad sign for the team. If you asked the players, should we have gone for two, I'll guarantee you most of the players would have said, yeah, laps, let's try and win the game. And to me, that's how you lose a football team. They're two and six. This season is basically over at this point. And if you're talking about two teams that aren't going any place, give me the team that's fighting hard every game and it is improving pretty much every game.
I like the Cardinals. I think the Cardinals have a real good chance to win this straight up.
Yeah, no, I agree with you. The Bucks sort of a little bit like the Titans for me, where I'm just scared to get involved with them whenever they play, because you really don't know what you're going to see. I completely agree on the call to go for two. Now again, well, they would have won the game. You know, it looked like it wouldn't have mattered because Seattle had the fieldal opportunity which they missed at the end of regulation.
But I agree if you're on the road in Seattle, which I get is not the same as it used to be necessarily and probably just because the defense isn't as strong, but it's a difficult place to play. You've got Russell Wilson on the other side. You've got to try to go for that win there. So yeah, that's a pretty back breaking loss right there. You could see it,
you know. And again with the Cardinals, they lost to the forty nine ers on Thursday night, but as you said, they really you know, they played hard that entire game. It looked like they were dead in the water, especially that horrific end to the first half where it looks like they get that stop and then Kingsbury had called the time out, so they get another go at it and he throws the touch on pass and so they're
down seven more points than you thought. But to come out and fight really, really hard says a lot about the team. So yeah, I could see the two teams going in different directions here and the Cardinals giving them certainly a game, especially when you're getting I mean, it's a dead number, but you know, getting five points is certainly not insignificant whatsoever.
No, I am anything more than three to me as a little bonus.
Yeah, let's move on here to the Lions at the Bears. The Bears here are laying two and a half. It's down from three. The over under is at forty three, down from forty three and a half. Again, I'm a little surprised here. I mean, the Bears look completely dead in the water right now. They have nothing going on Offensively. They showed it again in their loss of Eagles. I believe they had nine yards at the end of the
first half or something like that. And their defense is just not at all what it was from last year. They have real difficulty stopping the run, which doesn't really matter that much against the Lions because they don't have an actual running back, but once Akeem Hicks went down, they really struggled there. But overall their defense just is
not that scary. Meanwhile, the Lions have no semblance of the running game, but their passing game is working well and although they have defensive deficiencies, it's just hard to see the Bears taking advantage of any team, regardless of how bad the defense is. So the Bears here laying less than the field goal at two and a half in the over under at forty three.
Yeah, I mean, it's it's a tough look. The Lions are in every game, so you've got to figure the Lions have a chance to win here on the Chicago side, uh Naggie, Well, first of all, second grade math. It's nineteen to nothing late third quarter, you score a touchdown, you've got to go for two. You're not supposed to go for one.
I don't know.
I don't know how any coach can make a mistake that egregious. They're also it's just one of those seasons where everything is going wrong. David Montgomery played a good game yesterday for the Bears, but he's probably the goat on the biggest play of the game. It's nineteen fourteen. Trubisky throws him a screen pass. He's got a blocker and green pastors. I mean, it's gonna go for at least twenty five five yards. It might have gone all
the way and put the Bears in the lead. And he drops the football, And that was the biggest play of the game because the Bears would.
Never heard from again in the matchup.
So, you know, one play by a guy who played well but ends up the going on what turned out to me to be the biggest player of the game.
And that's the Bears season in Microcossum.
They managed to do something wrong at the most critical moment every week and I'm not sure I see that changing here. The Lions are playing better football than the Bears at this point. They'll have a good chance to go in and win this game.
Yeah, I would take the Lions here. I mean my early inclination just because again the Bears you talk about, you know, the Bucks maybe having a loss that just kind of makes you feel defeated. I mean Trubisky. You know, there was a lot of calls for Trubisky to get benched at halftime, and he obviously came out and played a little bit better. But he has completely regressed as a quarterback this tea, you know.
But part of that is I think they're running the wrong offense for him. He's a very mobile quarterback. Get him, get him some running lane, some running lane roots, because if you get if you increase the threat of Trubisky with his legs, it'll make his arm better. I don't think he's a pocket passer. I think you've got to get this guy on the move. And the bear Sea reluctant to change their offense to suit what his strengths are,
as limited as he might be. I mean, you at least are supposed to design your offense to bring out the best in your quarterback. Well, they're not doing that with their offense.
No, and I do agree with that. I think they are not utilizing his legs enough. And he does throw well when he's on the run and everything like that. The problem is, I mean, look, it's the same coach from last year, and it's you know, it's I realized that you know the system that they're in. It's the same and to me, I get it. I wish they would do things a little differently. But even with what they're doing, he looks completely lost. And I get that he's not just a pocket passer, but I mean, he
can't go through his progressions. He's incredibly inaccurate, you know it, just you expect growth even without them fully utilizing what they need to do to get the most out of him, he still just looks like to me, a guy who has just not progressed in the normal way that a third year quarterback would progress.
You know what I'm saying, I would agree with that, and I think the Bears are going to have to make a tough decision after this year because you're not going anywhere with Trubisky is the quarterback and you don't have a backup Chase. I mean, you know, Chase Daniel is strictly a backup who can manage a game, and he's not gonna win your games. I guess what they do with the rest of the season is toss them out there, because the season is basically over for the Beers at this point.
Throw him out there and see if it can improve.
And and that should be your your process for making the decision at the end of the season as to what to do in the draft or maybe in terms of a trade.
Yeah, one hundred percent agree. And you know, look, I do like the Lions here, you know, getting even less than a field goal. But it's worth noting that the Lions are kind of have a little bit of the Bears type of you know, season in them, and that they could easily have a much better record than they do. But they also kind of find ways to.
Be Yeah, but here's I think the difference for me is the Lions. You could make a case the Lions should have a great record. I don't think he can make a case the Beers should. I think the Lions have played a lot better football than the Chicago Bears have. The Beers have been a bad football team.
I could not agree with that more absolutely right, I mean, and that's what I'm saying. When you see the Bears laying points, I get it there at home whatever, it's a visual game, But you know, I just it's hard to see the Bears beating anyone other than maybe the Jets, of course, and maybe one of the teams in our next game, which is the Dolphins at the Colts. Colts here are laying ten and a half. The over under
is at forty four and a half. Now, we've got sort of the quarterback situation up in the air here. Jacoby Brissett. He has not yet been ruled out. He's got an MCL issue. I think they're calling it a minor sprain. Kind of feels like to me like they'll play it safe considering they should be able to beat the Dolphins regardless even with Brian Hoyer playing and he played well, you know, without in Brissette stead yesterday, even without t Y Hilton, who are through three touchdown passes.
I believe the Dolphins meanwhile, come off there big, but they lose Preston Williams for the season. They lose their running back Mark Walton, who was suspended for four games a couple of hours ago. Now they're going on the road. They have covered in four straight games, so that is something when they're getting all the points. But how do you feel here with the Dolphins at the Colts. Colts laying ten and a half over under forty four and a.
Half, I don't know that i'd lay it because the Dolphins are at least mostly trying to compete. I mean, the players aren't tanking, and you know, they got to win. So they'll probably be some enthusiasm in practice this week and they might be able to hang around, especially if Hoyer is playing. I mean, Hoyer did play reasonably well yesterday in relief of percent, but he also threw a pick six, which Hoyer is capable of doing in any game. I wouldn't be laying double digits with the Colts, but
Indiana was certainly should win the game. So this falls into that category where you might want to take a look at the Colts and a teaser.
Yeah, I think that that's fair. I don't like it. You know, over ten and a half is not something I really want to get involved in. I don't mind
the over on the forty four and a half. I think, you know, the Colts have a strong defense, but I think you know, if Fitzpatrick has shown he's able to put a points with the Dolphins, and I think regardless of who you have under center for the Colts at this point, whether or not a Toyer, who again, if Brissett's going to be out, I'm sure he'll take the first team reps all week so he'll be a little
more prepared and everything like that. But again, both these guys have pick six potential at any given time, so I'm really not I'd lean towards the over here at forty four and a half. Let's move on to the rams. At the Steelers rams currently laying four. This was three and a half and the over under at forty five, and it was forty four and a half. Rams are coming off the bye here, they're hopeful to have Brandon Cooks back after his second concussion, but that remains to
be seen. They've looked out of sorts offensively all year. I mean they have a terrible offensive line. Obviously not a good thing against the Steelers, who, as we just talked about, escape against Indianapolis with that win, but they also continue to look stagnant offensively. Mason Rudolf just cannot get into a groove, doesn't push the ball down field very well. It's the third straight home game for the Steelers here, so how do you feel about the playing four in the over under at forty five.
Well, Steelers game plan here is get let's get pressure on Golf because he has not responded well to pocket pressure this year. And I don't know, maybe he does here, but that hasn't been the case for Golf all season. He's had a very ordinary season in terms of what the expectations were coming in. Now, he did find some room in the last game. They kept throwing in the slot to Cooper Cup and it couldn't get stopped. But the Steelers are a smarter defensive team and I think
they can take Cup away to some extent. So then what do they do, especially if they're missing Cooks the Steelers.
This is Mike Tomlin's strength.
I know Tomlin gets some criticism, and rightfully so at times, but one of his strengths is finding ways to kind of grind out wins when they're not expected to.
And I think yesterday was a good example.
Yeah, they got lucky Vinitary mister kick and Brissett got hurt, but they still did manage to win the game. And James Connor wasn't on the field for Pittsburgh, who's probably their second most valuable offensive player. I wouldn't be surprised if the Steelers beat the Rams. The Rams, to me, have had, for the most part, a season long hangover from the Super Bowl, and that happens to the Super Bowl losers sometimes, and the Rams seem to be showing
all those symptoms. They really haven't at any point resembled the team we saw last year, and I'm not sure there's suddenly going to here.
Yeah, this is a game where it's a little dicey. You know, it's an early forecast, so you don't want to get into it, but the weather in Pittsburgh looks pretty rough as scheduled for some day. Again, we're way off at this point. But to the extent there's going to be showers and it's going to be snow or something like that, then it's something to keep in mind. You know, I don't really know. It seems so gimmicky with the Steelers, I get it. I mean, Tomlin is
grinding out wins. You know, the idea that thirteen catches for Jalen Samuels. You know, none of their receivers get involved. It just seems so crazy to me that they were able to do that to me, really, you know, regardless of the game. Again, this is one where I feel like this might be something where I might like the under when all of a sudden done. It's at forty five right now. Two teams. You know, the Rams are struggling offensively, and again you made great points. The offensive
line is terrible. The Steelers get a lot of pressure on the quarterback, so I think you know, Golf, as you said, he's really really struggled whenever he has had pressure this year, which has been pretty much all the time. The Rams defense, though, I feel like it's playing a little bit better of late in recent weeks. And again they added Jayalen Ramsey, so you know that is going
to add a little bit to them. So for me, you know, at forty five, I kind of lean towards the under, but in terms of the spread, I agree. It's just not one. I don't have a great feel for it because I could see it going either way before you finished up with our last few games. I want to remind everyone about our giveaway. It is a signed Odell Beckham Junior Cleveland Brown's helmet. It is running
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let's go on to the Panthers at the Packers. Right now, the Packers are laying five and a half and the over under at forty eight, polar opposite Sundays here for these two teams. Kyle Allen already been named the starter for Week ten and probably for the remainder of the season given the recent reports about Cam Newton. He bounces back well against the Titans after a dreadful game against
the forty nine Ers. Christian McCaffrey continues to run extremely well, obviously, and he should have a field day against the area where you attack the Packers, which is their run defense. Now, the Packers, they had been rolling, but they look absolutely terrible against the Chargers despite the return of DeVante Adams. They are coming home here. So how do you feel about Packers laying five and a half over under at forty eight.
I don't pick this number'll hold up. I think it's gonna come down.
Carolina was a sharp play against the forty nine Ers, which obviously didn't work out, but the betting market was certainly at least the sharp market was certainly on the Panthers in that game, and Carolina responded from that bad game with a very good performance yesterday against Tennessee.
So some pluses on the Carolina side. The Packers, I.
Think there's some thought that, you know, I'm not I don't want to use the word fraud, because they're a good football team, but they're they're not quite at the level of what I think are the best teams in the NFC, and I think some of that was shown yesterday.
You would expect Aaron Rodgers to have a much better game than he had against the.
Chargers, certainly, but he's going against another pretty quality defense here, and the Packers do have some holes. I wouldn't be surprised if Carolina goes in and gives them a real good football game. This is probably one of the This could be the best game of the schedule in terms of who knows who's gonna win, and a game that certainly looks like a one possession game.
Yeah, I completely agree. I'm really excited to see this game. I don't really know what to do with the Packers. I don't really know what they are because you know, when Devanta Adams was out, they were winning, you know, and their offense was, you know, being driven by you know a lot of Aaron Jones, but a lot of you know, passes to the running backs, and that just doesn't seem like a sustainable They don't have any pass
catchers who can really make it done. I mean, Marcus Valdez Scanling isn't doing anything, Geronimo Allison isn't doing anything. Jimmy Graham, you know, maybe a threat in the red zone and everything like that. And now Adams returns and their offense looks sort of stagnant. Part of me wants to throw it out a little bit. As the cross country trip, they got there a little early. Maybe they kind of let their heads sneak out of it. But
in the end, I agree. They've also shown some holes defensively, even in their passing defense, which was really their strength. So this is going to be a good game. And again, I like the Panthers against the forty nine ers that week. They obviously disappointed, but I think this game showed you what they're really made of. So I do think that
this one's going to be a good game. I could I certainly expected to be within a touchdown, and you know I wouldn't be surprised that the Panthers going there and win the game out right.
Yeah, this is one of those games where I don't have a problem with teasing up underdogs, especially when you can go to at least well, you're going through a couple of key obviously you go through seven and ten, right, I don't think that's a bad idea at all. It's to find somebody to go at a six point teaser with the Panthers.
I think that's a good idea. Again, I cannot see the Packers blowing them out in this game, you know, and look, the forty nine Ers completely blew them out a couple of weeks ago, so there's always at risk. But I'd be really surprised if this is more than a one score game. So in terms of teasing them, I think that's a great idea. Let's move on to the Vikings that the Cowboys. Again, we have not seen tonight's game yet against the Giants, so that obviously could
change things if there's a major injury or something. But right now, the Cowboys are laying three in the over under is at forty seven and a half. The Vikings lose, and that great game against the Chiefs that we talked about earlier. They also lose Adam Thielen, who left the game early with an aggravation of his hamstring injury. I'm sure when you have a soft tissue injury and you come back and you leave the game pretty early on feelan is not going to be ready to go in
this game. They'll probably be smart and hold them out. Their defense is not quite as strong as it appeared earlier on Xavier Road. Certainly is I mean, he's getting benched at various points. Meanwhile, the Cowboys offense continues to look good with Amari Cooper on the field. Certainly, the defense solid but unspectacular. Cowboys are always a popular team to nationally televised game. How do you feel about Cowboys laying a field goal and the over under a forty seven and a half.
I kind of want to.
Look at Dallas and see what they do tonight against the Giants and maybe make a little more of a judgment at this point. At that point, I would have liked Dallas a lot better here in this in terms of a spot had the Vikings won yesterday. But they did, and that makes this an important game because they're really battling with the Green Bay to win the division and Vikings off loss.
Kind of a scary team to fade.
Flip side of it is, you know, Kirk Cousins against winning teams, not the most reliable guy in the world.
No, absolutely, he does play better indoors generally speaking, and you know they're not home, but they will be indoors here. But again, the Cowboys. You know, with the Eagles playing well, Cowboys, regardless of what happens tonight, they're gonna be pretty desperate for the win two. So it really is gonna be a really good game. I don't have a good feel for whatsoever at this point because you're gonna have two desperate teams, two teams that are both capable of putting
up a lot of points. So it's going to be interesting. But you know, with the Cowboys being such a public team at a small number, so long as they look relatively competent like they usually do, nothing crazy tonight, I'm sure there'll be some money coming in on the Cowboys. Let's move on to our Monday night game, maybe one of the best games of the week. The Seahawks at
the forty nine Ers. Forty nine Ers are currently laying six This has been between five and a half and six and a half that I've seen at least all day, the over under at forty five and a half. The forty nine ers here, they're coming off the mini buy. You know, they have the tough game against the Cardinals where it looked like they were about to put it away and then they let the Cardinals cut right back.
Their defense has been a bit vulnerable lately, especially their run defense, and now they are down Kwan Alexander, so that's going to certainly open things up. But they are getting healthier on the offensive line. Joe Staley's probably coming back. And meanwhile, the Seahawks, look, we talked about it. They don't have their Vonda defense anymore, but they have the guy who is probably the MVP of the league right now in Russell Wilson. He has just completely saved them
from various devastating losses. So it's a little weird to analyze them because I feel like they're not a great team, but Wilson has played so incredibly well. So how do you feel here? Division game Monday Night Football? Forty nine ers laying six and the over under at forty five and a half.
I'm not going against the forty nine ers.
The team's on a roll and I think they'll get some public support here because they're unbeaten and it's less than a touchdown. So you might make a case that the shot guys might come in, well, the math guys might come in on Seattle, but a San Francisco right now is just a team you don't want to fade, and they're better than the Seahawks quite frankly, Garoppolo's final showing his good stuff. He actually was struggling along while they were winning games, and on the last couple of
games he's really put it together. So you can argue they're playing their best football right now. Even though it was only a three point win against Arizona. I think they were the bit, you know, clearly the better team in that game and maybe just kind of relaxed in the second half thinking they had the game won, which can happen. I think the forty nine ers are going to be primed and ready for this one. They're got to be more arrested as well. Looks like at vander San Francisco to me.
Yeah, I like the Minibi, I really do. I think, especially you know, they had a couple of injuries. They did lose Kwant Alexander as I said, but you know Kittle got banged up a little bit. He played through it, but he was hobbling most of the game. He's got, you know, extra time to get ready. You know. The problem I see is I do like the forty nine ers at that number just because when I look at the teams, you know, the forty nine ers are to
me a much much better team. I would just be terrified of, you know, laying the points against Wilson just because you can see him at the very end coming back, oh yeah, instead of keeping it close. So it is a game where sort of when I analyze it, certainly the forty nine ers laying less than a touchdown I like because they're a much much better team.
Yeah. I'll say this though. If Seattle's running game.
Does what it did yesterday against a very good running defense, that changes the equation. But they've got to do it more than one week for me to can be convinced if that's the case, and uh, you know, we'll find out on Monday. That's the Uh. The X factor in this game is if the Seahawks can run the football, then the field opens up for Russell Wilson, and you know what he could do what he's given time to pass.
Yeah, really surprising effort yesterday. Great game from Chris Carson. Again, I think that I think the Seahawks are on like their third center or something of the year. So you it was really surprising considering how strong the Bucks have been. But yeah, that's that's a good point. And again that is where you can attack a little bit the forty nine ers on the ground, So if they are successful there,
that'll certainly open things up for Wilson. All right, Well, that's going to do it for today's show, Dave, Thanks again for joining me. Remind everybody where they can find more of you and your work. Uh best.
The best thing to check out is my Twitter handled because I'm on almost every day at Dave Cocain.
And if you want to get.
A chance to listen to the radio show, which we do on ESPN Las Vegas every day, it's archived every day at LB sportsnetwork dot com.
All right, thanks again for joining me, Dave.
You got it a pleasure.
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