Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast. I'm your host, Thomas Viola and as always for the entirety of the football season. Joining me today none other than the king of content, the high Septum of Soaps, the podcast power listener, and long suffering Cowboys fan, the oracle himself.
Matt Friedman.
And Matt, it is time for Week one of the NFL season. We have games to talk about today, and that means we have to bring on some of the big guns here. So today we are joined by none other than Will Brinson of the Pick six podcast, former notary and guys. It is officially football time. Week one is here. I know Matt's not excited, but Will, how are you feeling?
I'm thrilled, you know. I love the Rams Bills Thursday night game. I don't know if this is we're gonna pick it like that opener is just like a choice opener. You look at the schedule and there's like so much roadchalk, it's crazy.
I think picking Survivor is gonna be impossible this week.
And the other thing, like about a week one where there looks like there could be chaos is I love how we're gonna get so many victory laps and like and like and so many realizations that all these takes that we've been spewing for like nine months in the off season are just completely preposterous and dead ass wrong, like when like you know when like the like I'm like the Jaguars are just like if I think could take on the Jaguars like they're gonna, I think I
picked them to win the division, They're just gonna like lose by forty points, and I wouldn't feel like such an idiot. But then you'll realize it a week for now that none of that really matters exactly.
This is smartest man in the room season that we're finally ending here with the season finally beginning, everybody's finally done having their takes that has to be better than everybody else's takes, and we can finally prove it all watch some football and you nailed it on the Survivor pools. I was fitting with with my roommates last night talking about what are we gonna do for our survivor entries?
And oh man, it is a hard week.
So many seven point road favorites the first couple weeks are gonna be tough for survivor. And obviously we don't have a sample size to deal with here. It's going to be interesting to see. But Matt will it's time to get into some games here, start breaking down your favorite spreads of the week. And Matt, I realize we haven't even gotten you a word in edgewise here.
But are you excited?
Yeah, I actually am excited. I try not to be excited about anything, but impossible not to be excited about the first week of football. And I will say on the week one front, it's that kind of thing where yes, there will be a lot of victory laps, but then there will also be the really distinct refusal to take the l where it's like, look, it's only one week, you know, and it's like, okay, yeah, it's only one week, but it's always really bad.
It would be like ninety percent of the carries for one guy, ten percent for the other guy that you said like basically like me.
Even Trace Sermon last year, it was like.
No, it's too early to tell if Trey Sermon is gonna be good or bad.
It's like the week nine, Week nine, I'm screaming, like I hate it.
Ever, No, this guy could come in and I'm gonna sure you've got to carry last.
I had an all time Fantasy draft last year where I took Trey Sermon, Mike Davis, and Brandon Ayuk.
Just fantastic year for me.
That's a tough one, but I actually have fifteen to one in a league. The only mofo who got me was prisco Pete. Priscoe got me with his crappy team like they actually had some basically prevented me from having a perfect season, which is really disturbing.
Anyway, Hey Giants do yes, exactly.
Well, we're going to talk about the Giants game and more, but first let's talk about the biggest game of the weekend. It's the one that we all are waiting to sit down and watch, the Baker Mayfield revenge game the Browns at the Panthers.
You're laying a point with the Panthers.
Will Are you all aboard the Baker Mayfield bandwagon?
Here?
Is he going to get it back together? Or are you going with the Cleveland Jacoby Brissettes.
Yeah, a tough spot for me. Is an NC State fan, Jacoby Brissett.
You know the homecoming game here, love love Jacoby did a lot of good stuff here in Raleigh. I mean, I guess he's playing at Charlotte, which is like might as well be Virginia.
To be perfectly honest, I am like have annoyed it myself as we get, you know, to the start of the full first full Sunday of the NFL high like over the past month plus, have allowed myself and done it to myself to like get on board. But I'm like, maybe the Panthers.
Mans our fringe playoff contender.
And I'm like, what are you doing? Like I know what I'm doing.
It's so stupid and I'm mad at myself. But it's like the Tobias few k Meme. He's like, he's like, does it ever work for them?
No?
But it might work for me at the Panthers.
I do think the Baker and the Panthers are gonna are gonna take care of business against the Browns.
I mean, I can't.
I always think back to that game where after Hugh je Action got fired by the Browns and then was put and played for then started coaching for the Bengals, excuse me and Baker Baker like they ran the score up of the Bengals It is the best games Baker's ever played. He's walking by Hugh on the sidebark like
run in his mouth. The cameras catch it, and I think you're gonna see some of that narrative back against the Browns here, who are you know, wounded right like they had Deshaun Watson and now he's obviously can't play. That's why they moved on from Baker. This is the this Panthers team. There are a couple of different ways that the season can fail, and they're not difficult to
like imagine, like Christian McCaffrey gets hurt. This is a bunch of games the offensive line isn't very good, or those guys get hurt, like one guy get hurts on that offensive line. It could really be a Jingo type piece. You know, a couple of guys on the defense don't take a huge leap. But for Week one, I think all those things are pretty safe to worry about. He said, knowing that Joseph Person just tweeted that Christian McCaffrey was on the injury report with a shit injury, which is
not ideal for purposes of this Panthers pick. However, he's a full participant. They're gonna you saw what they did in the first three games last year. You get Christian McCaffrey involved in that offense, it's gonna make Baker look good. I think Ikey Iguana will have a very nice first game. I worry a little bit about his pass pro over the full season. And then like the upgrades they made Bradley Boseman at center Panthers team, I think can flash it off and they have started hot in him at
rule at home. I like him to take care of the Browns in the spot.
My thing with the My thing with Baker was always that all the things that people knocked in for with his personality and all that.
It was always stuff on the field for being a competitor.
Yes, he got supplexed by that campus police officer at Oklahoma, but he kind of cleaned himself up after that and everything else was on the field, and I want that in my quarterback. And you know, he has had these games circled forever. This is absolutely going to be that game that he wants to go off in. But Matt, you're disagreeing with us here.
Yeah, So the way we're doing this is that Will is taking five spread bets that he likes. I'm taking five spread bets that I like. We didn't consult with each other beforehand, and it just so happens we're going head to head on this one. And when I first wrote up this game, it was Brown's plus two and a half, and I said that, I think my projection of this is Brown's minus half a point. When I put it in, the outline is Brown one and a half. As we're recording this right now, the consensus line is
now a pick them. It is actually a pick them at DraftKings.
Uh.
It is point five towards the Browns at points bet, one point going towards Carolina at bet MGM. So like this. You know, we are now in the in the pick them range, and I think we might continue still to see this line move towards move towards the Browns as we get into the weekend. I am very much on the Browns here, you know, at pick em plus one and a half wherever it is that you find it. I think they should be favored in this game.
Uh.
And you know, I think it's a situation where Baker Mayfield, you know, Robbie Anderson, he has a hamstring injury. Uh, so his status is a little bit unknown tight end. And Thomas he has a rib injury. He's week to week. So Baker Mayfield, I don't think he has great weapons at the wide receiver position after DJ Moore, and as bad as those weapons are, he might not even have his full arsenal of weapons going into this game. And
so I think that's a hindrance. If you look at the Cleveland Browns, you know, I think there are some trends here that work in their favor non postseason teams. So you know, that's very much like the kind of team that I think the public would maybe be like because of recency bias, prone to bet against early in the next season. So you know, a non postseason team that's a road underdog in Week one, they're seventy three, forty six and four against the spread for nineteen percent ROI.
And then so that's the Browns. And you look at the Panthers. Man head coach Matt Rule has been really bad against the spread in situations where he should have an edge. So as a favorite, he's three and eight against the spread. At home, he's four and twelve against the spread. And he put that together with him as a home favorite in the spot he is one in six against the spread and on the money line as a home favorite. This guy just just does not get
it done. And this matchup I really like in terms of the Browns secondary versus Baker Mayfield in the pass catchers. Like, yes, it is the revenge game for Baker Mayfield, it is also the revenge game for the entirety of the Browns organization, right and for like the defense that had to like look at the offense and say, like, we could maybe get stuff done, we could maybe make the playoffs if not for that guy right there. Now they get to go up against him. And I think this is a
very good brown secondary. I have them ranked number three overall and they are going against a Panthers pass catching group that after DJ Moore is really unproven and really thin and number one cornerback Denzel Ward, but I think he's one of the best cornerbacks in the league. He's been paid like one of the best cornerbacks in the league. And he you know, he is going to shadow DJ Moore on the perimeter, Like I think that is a near certainty. And that's not to say he's going to
lock him down. But I think it will be hard for DJ Moore to have a big enough of a game against Denzel Ward to compensate for the lack of production they get from all all of the other pass catchers who aren't Christian McCaffrey. And if you're going to run like the bulk of your passing game through the running back, you're probably going to lose. So I am
very much on the Browns here. Again, whatever number it is like at pick them, I haven't projected at you know, minus point five, So I don't think there's value if you're betting them there. But I think there is probably enough value if you're betting them at a pick them and still you can get them at plus money or your plus odds at at some sites out there, So be sure to shop around on this one.
By the way, I love that, like, hey, we've got a smart NFL guy. It's like, yes, I'm going to back Matt Rule. It's like maybe maybe I have an idiot.
Maybe I have an idiot, you know, like that's Matt role is pretty terrible.
I remember what I really wanted the Jets to hire Matt Rule, and I was so upset the Panthers got him instead.
Things.
I'm not gonna say they've worked out for us.
He's worked out for the Jets, but I mean, yes, it's worked out and not like that.
You're better off not having Matt rule even if it hasn't worked out.
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around the block for a little bit of time. One could say the Patriots are going down to Miami to play the Dolphins here in a coaching matchup rivaled in disparity by only Don Shula and Rich Brooks, who had a win differential of three hundred and twenty wins when they matched up in nineteen ninety five. Belichick, of course, has a casual two hundred and ninety and Mike McDaniel, the new Dolphins coach zero.
And as much as I hate to say it.
I'm afraid that I'm betting on the rookie coach in this one. Three and a half point favorites at home are the Dolphins. Here, that hook scares me a little bit.
But I'm looking at the fact that Bill Belichick struggles in Miami, but he struggle the Miami against Brian Flores. But this team is also loaded.
I'm stuck between two minds.
Here will provide some clarity for me.
Well, I mean, I'm I'm petrified a better in this game.
Because I think objectively speaking, like say, if you took the if you dook the if you do the Patriots and you get rid of Belichick and you put them in like slime green Seahawks jerseys, I mean they're they're they're over under wind. Total is like five and a half. Yeah, right, Like this this roster is just not it's not it's not great. And I think, you know, I think it's mattsive. Matt's got the pick on this one. But I would
just say, like the to a non factor. It terrifies me because I referenced that Tua has like that, I said the Patriots could win the game. The CBS has me to do five upset games, right, and I listed five games and I was like, the Patriots, patris who win against Belichick Week one, your rookie head coach, you know, to a you know, a young quarterback struggle against Belichick, and and they got Maggs two.
Is three and zer against Belichick.
But he's for like four hundred passing yards. And then and then basically, Dolphins fans came at me, and I sort of said that the Dolphins beat writers are homers too, and like they were like way too enthusiastic with their reporting, and so like everyone came after me for forty eight hours NonStop. My mentions were like Dolphin fans screaming at me. So I'm like petrified that two is great in this game, the Dolphins role, and then I have to relive that.
Nightmare of two and on.
So Friedman taught me, taught me into the Patriots saving my Sunday.
Please.
Well, you know, now I almost hope it happens. That would be that'd be great, good entertainment value. Everyone except for you would enjoy it. But now I have to go with the that proven head coach in this situation. And part of it is that cornerback Byron Jones for the Dolphins. He's out on pp with an ankle injury, and you know, the Patriots by and large, you know, they're relatively healthy entering this game. You know, head coach Bill Belichick thirty fifteen and two against this bread as
an underdog. I mean, you know, that's that's a pretty good record. And the division road underdogs in the first half of the year two hundred and eighty four to to eleven with seventeen pushes against the spread. So, you know, divisional road underdogs, especially in the first half of the year, when I think there are more things that are unknown, I think it's it's you know, been a profitable thing to go with. And I'm just looking at this game.
The Patriots run offense against the Dolphins run defense. I think that's really where this game is decided. And you know, with Damien Harris and Ramandre Stefenson, the Patriots have I think one of the like the better I wouldn't say like it's like top three, but like top eight running back duos in the league. And the opposing defensive line for for the Dolphins it's not bad, but it's not
good in run defense. And I think that is a real edge that the Patriots are going to have in this game, especially like if you're just looking at statistics from last year, the Patriots, you know, routinely top eight in different rushing metrics, the Dolphins middle of the league two, bottom quarter of the league in defensive rush metrics, and
without Brian Flores there. Tommy you mentioned it like Flores was the defensive brain on that team, and because he was coming from the Belichick coaching tree, I think he really did give them a head to head edge against the Patriots and that is gone, so that defense really could take a step back. And I know there have been reports about the Patriots, who were a power rushing, gap heavy team for years, about them struggling to incorporate
zone blocking schemes into their offense. To me, like, obviously, if they're incorporating zone blocking schemes, you would rather have that going well than not. I don't think. I don't think that means that they are totally abandoning the power run. I think it just means that they're going to get more varied, more inventive with what they're doing in the running game, so that there's more of a mix. And the Patriots, Yeah, they just said right guard Shack Mason
via trade. They lost left guard Ted Carrisson free agency, but otherwise they have good continuity along the offensive line. They have four starters, all of whom have started multiple years with the Patriots on the offensive line. And then they added in the first round left guard Cole Strange, who, yeah, they overdrafted him, but like that dude was one of the most dominant interior run blocking offensive linemen in the draft. So I think they're just going to just ram it
against the Dolphins for the entirety of the game. Keep that offense of the Dolphins on the sideline for as long as possible, and nose tackled. Raekwon Davis last year had a thirty six point one run defense grade and a twenty nine point one tackling grade. Like that is the point of attack, like right up the middle of their defense. The Dolphins are weak against the run. So I think that this is going to be a game
that is closer than the three and a half. If it were three, I would probably still be betting it. At two and a half, I don't believe I would touch it, although, like I do think that these two teams are pretty closely matched, and I don't think the home field advantage at Miami is really all that large. So I am on the Patriots in this spot at three and a half.
See you make me feel better with that too.
And I like the idea that the zone blocking power thing. Like if Belichick doesn't think the zone blocking is going to work in Week one, he's not gonna go full zone blocking against Miami, He's just gonna run the He's gonna run.
The power formation. Though. I mean, I cannot get over the fact though that.
He has Matt Patricia Jo Jones running his offense Like that is like the weirdest thing on the planet.
Yes, yes, but he is still he is still the one running that offense. Yeah, Like as weird as this sounds, Belichick back in the day with the Browns, maybe I shouldn't say this because it probably doesn't mean like anything good happened. But he obviously was like a defensive mastermind with the Giants. When he came to the Browns, he was calling the plays on offense. They did not have it, They did not have an offen defensive coordinator for the first couple of years that he was there, Like he
was the one overseeing the offense. There were other guys who were there, like you know, in in the meetings, position groups running it. But like Belichick really was the one who was overseeing the offense, and I think it's going to be a similar situation now.
He also had save it as his defensive coordinator, so he felt good about No. I mean, like you know, and I mean he trusted Romeo and his son, So I mean maybe he you know, maybe he thinks they can handle the defense and he'll run the I'd be like, hey, we're running this and Patricia's just like reading off a play sheet. That's like and Joe Judges like, like, you know, sitting there with his thumbs there, he's there, Yeah, exactly.
So maybe maybe said that's I hadn't thought through that process that I like that.
I'm still just worried about the fact that I can't believe the Dolphins swept the Patriots last year and I know Flores has gone, and a lot of it was the fact that he was the he was the guy who changed the system for them and was able to buck the trends of Belichick beating his disciples, of Belichick just dominating the division. But at the same time, I just feel like at the end of the day, this
Miami team is so much more talented them. I don't think it's as even a matchup, especially when you look at it on the offensive side there. But it's Week one and nobody knows anything, and I'm probably the one wrong here, so I will happily defer on that. If you want to win a sign Joe Mixon Cincinnati Bengals jersey courtesy of our friends at Christine Auction, you need to subscribe to the Betting Pros YouTube channel right now, comment below this video, and that is it.
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We will be announcing a winner right here on the channel, so make sure to turn on those notifications so you can be alerted when new episodes are up and to claim your prize. Talk about two Super Bowl contenders going at it here, guys, we'll probably be seeing this matchup in February. We've got the Jacksonville Jaguars facing off against the Washington Commies. Bet MGM has the Commanders at minus two and a half at home in this game, Carson
Wentz versus Trevor Lawrence, the Battle of the Jay. Who's coming out on top?
I mean, I've got that I've been saying for like three months of the Jaguars, We're just gonna win this game, Like I.
Think the Jaguars.
For one, the NFL schedule maker did not do Carson Wentz any favors because the last time he played a football game in the NFL was the horrible Week eighteen loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars that caused the Colts to miss the playoffs of major mercy, go insane and force a trade of Carson Wentz out of town. And so now, of course the NFL since Jacksonville to Washington, like, hey, do you enjoy that PTSD from from Jacksonville.
Well, we're sending some some teal your way, Carson. And not only that, the.
Jaguars have hired Carson Wentz's old coach, Doug Peterson, like Irban Meyer, was unquestionably the worst higher in the history of professional football, like abject failure and disaster. Petere Priscow told me on on the on our Our Friday pot the Pick six podcast. He was talking about because he lived in Jacksonville. He does that the you know, does
the weekly radio show. He knows that the organization really is like the stories, He's like the stories I'm hearing now, like about Urban and like it gets worse and worse, like the stuff hadn't even told publicly.
It's just like he's just treating, you know, just a disaster.
Would we say, would we say that they were urban legends? Yeah, but I just had to drop it in. Sorry, sorry to interrupt for that horrible, horrible joke.
I heard all puns, all puns I'm here for.
And like, Doug Pearson doesn't even have to be like Bill Belichick in two thousand and five.
He like he just has to be not.
Urban Meyer, and and immediately this team is gonna be so much better. I think he'll come and prepared. I'm not sold on. I think Washington maybe a little bit better than I'm giving him credit for. But I think Jackson was a lot better than people are giving him credit for. I think the jag Wars just win this game and we're like, oh right, Trevor Lawrence is awesome. It was just Urban Meyer who screwed him up.
I mean, I have a hard time poking holes in the Trevor Lawrence is good at football argument?
But what do you think, Matt?
Yeah?
I like it.
I mean when this line opened months ago, it was Jaggs plus four and a half and it was an auto bet. Then it was just like, Okay, there's no way, no way that Washington should be favorite. And the fact that this moved through the key number of three down to two and a half is a real sign of either the market being bullish on the Jags or really against Carson Wentz and the Washington Commanders. And honestly it's it's maybe a combination of both.
Exactly.
I don't I don't want to be betting on Washington. I don't necessarily wanted to be betting on Jacksonville. But I'd rather bet on Doug Peterson than Ron Rivera, and I'd rather bet on Trevor Lawrence than Carson Wentz's That's where I have to go in this one.
Yeah.
Absolutely, the next game up here, guys, the Colts and the Texans. We've got some division rivalry going on in Week one. The Texans seven point home dogs. In this spot, I kind of like, lovey, what do you think?
Will?
I think this is a freedom in a game too, right, because I'm I'm scared. Do you know the Colts haven't won a Week one openers twenty thirteen.
Yeah, like that is crazy. How how can you go?
Was a decade with no wins in week one of like multiple coaches but like multa like several good like Andrew Luck, Philip River. I mean just yeah, just good. It's wild to me. So I'm like, maybe lean Texans, but I'm kind of scared.
Yeah, I'm I'm there. I'm on the Texans. I first grabbed this at eight and a half, it's now at seven. I don't think I would bet it past the seven. I mean, I mean, for I definitely wouldn't bet bet it past the seven. But I still like it at seven. Uh, you know, the Colts linebacker should kill Leonard. He has returned to practice. He probably is going to play pretty nice by you.
By the way, I'm not gonna get I'm not gonna get off Darius until like week five.
Yeah no, it's it's written down here in my notes. That's that's the only way. That's the only way. Yeah. Uh you know, but he's dealing with, uh, with an injury that he's had for months. I like, I know he's very likely to play in this game. Like, I don't see him missing week one, but I don't think he's going to be in full football shape, and so that's something to monitor here. And the Colts, like they
have a really interesting situation. And so they have winnable but divisional road games in weeks one and two, and then in week three they have a home opener against the Chiefs, who have three extra days of rest. Good luck with that game. And then they have three more divisional games sandwiched around a road game at the Broncos
on short rest. That is a horrible opening schedule. And that's five divisional games in the first seven weeks of the season, and then they don't have another divisional game until Week eighteen against the Texans. So like it's not as if like week one is ever a must win game, but like, man, it's kind it's kind of a must win game for the Colts already because like the road
is kind of rough after this. And well, as you mentioned, the Colts have been bad in week one, like historically Frank Reich three and one against the spread in week one.
And ru, I mean, how is it even possible? Yeah?
Yeah, And and Matt Ryan, like, I mean he's five and nine against the spread in week one also, So like you put those two together and it's like, maybe this doesn't start out all that well for them. And you know the Houston Texans. You know, we talked about divisional underdogs before, especially like a teams that didn't make the postseason fifty three twenty three and two against the spread in Week one, like that is that is dynamic there. And the matchup I'm looking at for this game is
quarterback Davis Mills against the Colts secondary. And that secondary is not last year's unit at all. So Kenny Moore, he's still there in the slot, but the perimeter starters at quarnerback Xavier Rhodes and Rokisen they are gone. Backup quarterback TJ. Carey is gone. At safety, the Colts had five players play one hundred snaps last year. Four of them are gone. So it is a really rebuilt back end unit. And defensive quarter Matt Everfluse this is gone.
This is the yeah, right, yeah, that is the big one. So it's not just a lot of turnover within their their cover unit. It's that the guy who oversaw the cover unit is also gone. And now they have Gus Bradley, who, like I would say, like feels like a master of mediocrity, Like he's on his third coordinator job in as many years, and he has like a break but don't bend defense, Like over the past three years.
There's just snapping half guys.
There's no other way to describe it. Like his defenses over the past three years have been number ten in yards allowed but number twenty one in scoring. Like it's just like that, that's not something that makes sense, but for him it kind of does. And you know, they added Stefan Gilmore as their number one corner. That's a good addition, but he's thirty two years old. In September, you know, they brought in Brandon fashion Facisan faxin I
don't even know how to pronounce his name. That probably says more about me, but it also says a little something about him, Like he's going to be the other starting perimeter corner for them, and the only reason he's there is because he's a Gus Bradley favorite who knows the system from their time together the past four years with the Chargers and then the Raiders last year. But he is a total liability in coverage for his career one point three to three yards per coverage snap played,
including the playoffs and they're starting safety. Nick Cross is a rookie like Bradley, does not seem like the kind of coordinator who can quickly pull together a secondary with that much turnover in vulnerability. And then as for Davis Mills, Yeah, like it was an up and down rookie season for him, but he finished the year once he returned to the starting lineup on a pretty good hot streak twelve hundred yards past, seen nine touchdowns of just two interceptions. Like
he actually looked like a rookie who was ascending. And that's, you know, in comparison to a lot of the other rookies who were playing last year who just didn't really improve throughout the season. So he could maybe experience the second year progression that a lot of quarterbacks experience. He still has some continuity with offensive coordinator pet Hamilton, who was his position coach in the passing game coordinator last year.
He's got some interesting weapons there. Brandon Cooks, a very steady professional receiver, and then Nico Collins as an upside wide receiver, and Brevin Jordan, as you know, a young, pretty intriguing pass catching tight end who was the best tight end prospect of his high school recruitment class was pretty good. In college, I think went underdrafted last year, and in the preseason was getting the super majority of
first team snaps. Like you put all that together and it's like you could see this situation, especially in garbage time, getting the back door cover where against the secondary that just hasn't hasn't merged yet, being able to move down the field and cover for us. So that's where I am Texans plus seven. I think the Colts win. I think they finally get the win, but I think the Texans.
Cover just I was just gonna say to him, Gus Bradley, like if you look at his I was, I was sitting here just going through like Gus Bradley's because he when he when he he basically got the Jaguars job because the Legion of Boom was awesome.
Which like I mean, you know it was, yeah, could work. I mean it was awesome. Yeah, It's like it's gonna work.
If you can get it right, like coaching up the Legion of Boom. And then obviously, you know, Jacksonville was terrible throughout his entire tenure.
With the Chargers.
He had like two good years as defensive coordinator. But if you look at it, it's like, I mean, Derwin James, Joey Bosea, and Melvin Ingram were I.
Mean, he had like players. Yeah, Mi Sequille Leonard is a player.
The Forest Butner is a player, but that secondary does not have the same talent that he had his previous stops. And I think that is that could be a problem for this Cults defense, especially early in the season.
Yeah, I mean, Matt, you and I talked about it on the win Totals episode. With this Texans team, they're numbers four and a half, which I think is ridiculous for a team that won four games last year and is better now than they were last season.
I like Lovey Smith, but the most important thing for me here is that this roster isn't actually one of a rebuilding team. It's not super young. It's actually one of the older rosters in the league.
There are gonna be enough veterans there that they're not going to be making all of the rookie mistakes and the growing pains, and I think that they're going to be able to come together in a way where the Texans can at least cover this game, if not surprise a lot of people maybe not here, but this year we'll have to say, but I think that I'm completely
with you at Texans plus seven. Guys, football season is here, and if you want to get in on the action, we recommend heading on over to our friends at bet mgm, the King of sportsbooks, offering up the king of promotions right now. Use the promo code Betting Pros when you sign up for a bet mgm account today and you will get a thousand dollars risk free bet for your
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Now back to the show.
Let's move on here to the Giants and the Titans, because you guys are in agreement on this one.
The Titans are laying.
Five and a half at home and you're both riding Giants plus five and a half.
Well, yeah, I think you know.
We our job when we're I mean, by the way, so thank Our job is to watch football and talk about it, which is so stupid by the way, but it's awesome, don't be wrong. But the you know, you look at our job also is to look at what happened over the course of the off seasons, determined Okay, what does this do to what are these sort of it's due to a particular team, Like, you know, is this team you know up down? Like where do I think they'll go? And I don't think the Giants are
going to be good. And Joe Shane like.
Even basically came out and said it. He's like, they like, what do you think about your exportations this year?
He's like, We've got to play the hand we were dealt, which is which is like GM four, I'm expected to win three games at draft bright showing it's like basically basically why so the Giants go out and they hire Brian Dable, massive upgrade of Joe Judge, they draft Evan Neil, massive upgrade on the offensive line.
There's a there's a.
Gonna be an an like an emphasis on trying to make Daniel Jones look good because it'll make you, even if he doesn't look good enough that you keep him at least look good in the eyes of ownership. They had a great draft, and on the other side of it, the Titans trade A J. Brown in the draft and like switch to Trailon Burks, which is a massive, massive downgrade. Like, you know, I don't want to dog Trailon Burks as a prospect, but a J. Brown is a top ten fifteen NFL receiver easily, and you know.
Traylon Burks is not.
They have Robert Woods, who is a great run blocking wide receiver. That's very nice for Derek Henry, but Henry sort of, you know, I think they have to be a little lighter with him in terms of his carries this year, especially out of the gate, given what happened last year. I think the Giants were just like live to win this game outright and well by virtue of just improving with the coaching staff and the weapons too.
Wando Robinson I think can have a big year. This is a spot where the to me, it's an easy bet on the Giants against the Tennessee team that has severely downgraded now with Harrol Landry out too for the season, downgraded on both sides of the ball over the course of the all season.
Are you saying you're not a believer in Ryan Tannehill.
I like Ryan Tannehill, but I don't.
I'm not like, it didn't make me feel anything like, like, man, Ryan Tannehill, like you know, like I say, you know, you say like you're like Tom Brady, you know, if you feel.
This team is playing out the string this year until they can start Malik wellis.
But Matt, you're also on the Giants.
Yeah, And you know we talked about the Titans in earlier episodes, you know, betting the under on their season win total. They're a bet against team for me pretty repeatedly throughout this season, and it starts here. I do have some pause in that the Giants offensive line, although it was upgraded with the addition of Evan Neil, it has suffered a series of injuries during the preseason and so it's better than it was last year, but like it's thin. It does not have really any depth there,
especially on the interior. So that is something that makes me a little bit nervous, you know that said, I just think this this Titans team is massively overrated based on what they did last year. And Daniel Jones twelve and six against the spread on the road, eleven and four against the spread as a road underdog, Like this is just like the kind of guy you want to
back in this situation. And Mike Rabel for the Tennessee Titans one to three against the spread in Week one fifteen to twenty one and one against the spread as a favorite, and like I feel like that makes sense, Like Rabel is the kind of coach you want to back as an underdog and want to bet against as a favorite because he has a really conservative way of managing his team. And for me, some of this comes down to the Giants secondary versus the Titans pass catchers.
Like I think if you look at what these teams did last year and the players that they have, the edge goes to the Titans and a lot of situations except in this situation, but this is one of the most important matchups of the game, Like the passing game is often what dictates how teams perform against the spread. And the Giants, I think, you know, they've had turnover
in their secondary, Like it's not a good secondary. They lost cornerback James Bradbury also like safety slash cornerback Logan Ryan Andrew Bill Peppers lost all of those guys this offseason, but they still have some pretty decent continuity, Like all five projected starters this year were on the team last year and got meaningful playing time, so they at least have some continuity as a unit. And number one cornerback of Dori Jackson, I think is a really underappreciated player.
Like not only has he exhibited the ability to shatterw receivers throughout his career, but unlike most perimeter corners, he actually does line up in the slot, and I think that gives you know, defensive coordinator Don Martindell or Wink Martindell more flexibility with his coverages. And you know, Jackson, he's never had a coverage grade lower than sixty five, and last year he was really dominant, zero point sixty one yards per coverage snap, four point nine to eight
yards per target allowed. Like that puts him in like some pretty elite territory. And it's just like, I know, it's just one year, but like last year, he played really well. And so if he can man up either either Robert Woods or Traylon Burks on the preimi and then if the Giants can shut down the other receiver with safety help, Westbrook Akine and Austin Hooper are those two guys gonna make the Giants pay, like probably not.
And so even with the subpar secondary, I think the Giants can kind of like force quote unquote force the Titans to run the ball more, as if they need any more incentive to give Derek Henry the ball. But if the Titans are just running every play, I think that means that this is a pretty close game, like more of a field goal game than a five and a half point game. So I will take the extra points here like will with the Giants.
The next game up is the Niners at the Bears, the Bears getting seven points at Soldier Field against San Francisco. Here, Matt, you are on this one with Bears plus seven. I am right there with you.
Yeah, it feels kind of disgusting, but this is just what the number says. Here and the forty nine ers are already dealing with some pretty magnificant injuries, the most recent of which is George Kittle misspracticed on Wednesday. Be sure to monitor that, but you know, non zero chance he doesn't play in Week one. They're starting singer Daniel Brunskill.
He has a hamstring injury. It looks like he's going to be out and two guys who were definitely out in the secondary, cornerback Jason Verrett and safety Jimmy Ward. So that is all pretty significant. And I just want to say, like brun skills, if he is out, that means that the forty nine ers are starting three new interior players on their offensive line, Like it seems like that might be something that could be detrimental to starting quarterback Trey Lance, who is like just entering his first
year as a starter. And also I just want to say, like Verrett and Ward being out, that leaves them incredibly thin in the secondary after they had offseason departures of starters Josh Norman, Kawan Williams, and jew Quisky Tart as well as the depth safety Tevon Wilson. So that secondary for the forty nine ers is really really thin. And you know, Tom, we talked about this on the show last year, like Kyle Shanahan as a favorite, Okay, Like
that's all you have to tell me. Kyle Shanahan is a favorite, and I'm gonna be betting against him right He's sixteen twenty four and one against the spread as a favorite, fifteen twenty one and one against the spread without Garoppolo as his starter and in Week one, oh four and one against the spread just absolute, absolutely horrible at the beginning of the year. And you know I mentioned the forty nine Ers secondary, This matchup to me
comes down to justin fields against that secondary. Uh, they are really thin and as bad as the Bears offense was last year, like it wasn't much worse in dropback EPA than the forty nine Ers defense was. So I think this is more of an even matchup with fields against that secondary than most people would imagine. And it's it's it's a tough matchup overall. For Phil is no question going against a defensive line that is going to keep him pressured all game. But the good thing is
he's a dual threat quarterback. He was the number one dual threat quarterback as a high school recruit in twenty eighteen. He has this scrambling ability to escape the pocket and pick up chunk yardage. So even though he is going to be under pressure, I think he has the skill set to minimize the impact of that pressure in this game. And with Darnell Mooney and Cole Comet, I think he has the guys he needs to attack the what I would say is a weekend forty nine or secondary down
the field and in the middle of the field. And I'm not going to put too much stock in the preseason, but it is worth noting he actually looked pretty good, pretty good in the preseason, better than any of the other quarterbacks in the preseason in his draft class. And you know, a quarterback entering his second season, it's not unthinkable for him to take a significant step forward in that year. So I am on the Bears here at plus seven you.
Especially after how that preseason and look, I can't believe we're still getting seven points with the Bears in this game.
Well, Bears have a really bad roster. Yeah they do. It is it is one of the two worst rosters in football with the Falcons.
I think, yeah, like there's like there's three guys from the on the Bears that you would be like maybe four if you count, maybe like four guys where you'd be like, oh, yes, I would want that person on my roster if I was starting a team. It's like movie roquand Jalen Johnson and Fields, Like the field scene is interesting.
What if if Fields takes a massive leap, what is the Bear ceiling this year, like win total wise, we're trying to figure it out.
Six wins, right, even with like a massive leap, that's like yeah, yeah, I mean I think it would be similar to what we saw out of Deshaun Watson with the Texans early on, where like he's playing really well and it doesn't matter because because they're still losing a whole bunch of games.
Yeah, they did an interesting thing investing in like wide receivers, who, let's face it, are cheap.
But we haven't seen them be bad. We haven't seen them be good, but we haven't seen them be bad. They've just been stuck behind other guys. I think that there's some other Yeah.
Look, I'm a big galaxy brain guy. That is a galaxy brain theory. It's like, no one's seen these guys suck. They just never play.
Yeah, they never played because they were behind really good wide receivers. I think it's an interesting strategy. I don't think it's gonna work out for them long term, but I maybe they get lucky and one of them breaks out and Darnell Mooney has someone opposite him, but Justin
Field is gonna be running for his life anyhow. I still like the Bears in this game for everything that Matt said, and especially because I already have the clip saved from two episodes ago when Matt told me I was just flat out wrong about the fact that Trey Lance is bad at football, and I am saving that for around Week.
Nine or ten, when the Niners have five wins.
Trailer's better not be bad at football. I will be very poor in best pot is bad at football.
My argument is this, everything that they said about Zach Wilson coming out to the NFL b YU small sample size, didn't play anyone cupcake schedule like all of that Trey Lance. Really he was playing the heavy hitters at North Dakota State.
My argum would be that let's like upside riddled quarterback is drafted by a team that trades up for him, sits for a year, and then it gets to be unleashed in super quarterback friendly offense with tons of weapons and offensive mastermind calling the place, which is like they're like, very closely resembles what happened to Mahomes. I do not see he's gonna throw fifty and five thousand just that
like and look, Kyle Shannan may be paniccked. I mean, I think it's possible that Kyle Shannon always wanted Jimmy g on the roster as sort of like a fail safe just in case trades not ready. Yeah, and I think there'll be ups and downs, but I would be I would be surprised if he wasn't hashtag good at football.
I'm I know this is my hot take, but I stand it's a hill I'm willing to die on here the next game.
I hope, I hope that you're dead by week five, no offense none.
Taking the next game up here though, we got two more to get to the Bucks and the Cowboys are going at it, and the Cowboys two and a half point home dogs in this spot. Will you're on this game here and you are not siding with Tom Brady, you are going with the Boys.
Yeah, I'm gonna takenna take the Cowboys as a as a short dog at home. I think that this is probably best to wait until Sunday night. You know, it's the first date at football game of the year. Everyone's going to bet on it. People try to get their
money back. We'll be chasing the favorite Tom Brady on the road, you know, against the Cowboys team that like, if you look at these these two teams, maybe more than anybody or any teams over the last month, the general public has been selling these two teams or maybe even buying the Eagles and buying.
The Saints as a result of selling these teams.
And it's largely offensive line injuries that have caused that sort of market shift. I think people, well, with the Tyrone Smith news that he's out to December, I think people everyone is just abandoning ship on the Cowboys, and I get it, like it's it's it's very problematic. But I think you make the case that the Buccaneers offensive line injuries are almost just as bad relative to the quarterback under center because Tom Brady interior pressure is a problem.
Dan Quinn has played, you know, he's coached a ton against the Buccaneers. I don't think he'll be shocked by a large portion of the personnel when he's coaching on defense. They'll I think they'll rush to Marcus Lawrence and Michael Parsons on the inside the force to create really bad miss matches for for you know, for for the blocking schemes of the Buccaneers. And you're talking about you know, like coaching wise, you know, Sean Payton's departure concerns me for New Orleans.
I don't.
I think I'm talking enough about the fact that Bruce Arians has gone and you still have of course Buyer Leftficks calling the plays and Tom Brady you know, operating it. But like, is Todd bow Is going to take a different approach to the offense than than Bruce Arians. Probably he's just inherently more conservative. And so I think the Cowboys can and generate enough offense to uh to pull that.
I think I think they'll win this one, and I probably shouldn't be home dogs, even with the injuries that they've dealt with.
Matt, I know that you're not necessarily on this game, but we talked about last episode.
You're not high on the Cowboys this year?
Yeah, I mean, uh, I I'm very skeptical about what is going on with their their injury situation at at left tackles specifically, and you know, it means that they're having to to move guys around and elevate players, you know, move swing tackles into starting positions and swing interior alignment and starting left guard positions. And so I'm just I'm skeptical overall, but you know, I I will say that, uh you know, we uh at betting pros do have projections, official projections.
Uh.
Over I'm overseeing a team with uh different different people who are you know, giving their projections. And we have actually the Cowboys as a team to bet on in this game, and we have them as they should be zero point five underdogs and they're you know, two and a half underdogs. I wouldn't bet this out right if you're on the Cowboys, I would just tease it, you know, because you get to go through the key numbers of three and seven. Uh And at this point, you know.
There's so many good teaser legs out there this week.
Yeah yeah, and so at this point even eight, you know in the NFL, with some teams going for two like that can it's not a key number, but it's also nice to get that one too in a teaser. So if you're on the Cowboys, that's the way that I would pay Jaguars Cowboys.
We are discussed the Jaguars, right, I'd like, I can't remember what games I've talked about at this point, Like over the course is like Jaguars Cowboys teaser both up to eight and a half is a pretty nice little yes.
Yeah, I like that one.
I like that a lot.
And do you guys like the Monday night football game here Broncos at Seahawks, the Hawks getting six and a half points at all, and the Russell Wilson revenge game here will you're going with the Hawks?
Yees?
So see it's not Russell Wilson revenge game, it's Pete Carroll revenge game. Like Pete Carroll needs a revenge more than Russell Wilson does. Russell, if Russell goes back.
And loses, at least be like all right, you know, like you know Pete. I mean like if.
Pete Carroll the Seaws is down as you can get right now, nobody wants to buy it on the Seahawks. My theory is that Pete Carroll's trying to recreate twenty eleven to twenty twelve, which two eleven Hue, which is like they went seven to nine. So it's like, not they won the division when you're at that losing record the beat Quake season, but it's like they weren't good teams one game one week they lost. I think it was like Week three, twenty eleven. They lost to the
Brown six to three. But like, that's what Pete Carroll's going for. He wants to muddle this thing up. He wants to run the football. He wants it to be a sloppy, ugly game. He didn't want to, you know, to turn the ball over. That's why Lock's not playing. He's play defense, run the ball, aton and drag people into the mud with him.
And I think he can.
I think he can pull it off, especially early when he Knowsrussell Wilson's tendencies. I think Russ will try to, you know, act like he's this is not a huge deal. But I think even robotic Russ knows how, you know, just how insane it is.
He's going back to Seattle for his first game with the Broncos. I like the Seahawks into the crowded, be rowdy. I don't think it'll be like Tom Brady with You're like, oh thanks Tom.
I think we'll be like, dude, you kind of bailed on us, like again, SIGs, it never came back Dad, and then you know, and like, and I think they'll be I think they'll cheer pretty loudly against him, maybe respect him early on. But uh, I think the Seahawks I go a little you know, if they know Hacket's ever been a head coach, I don't know if I buy like they have offensive line issues in Denver, the
defense won't be as good as Fangio going. I think there's a lot of different sort of angles here that people are just not not seeing because of the Russell Wilson factor. I like the Seahawks and maybe pulling an upset.
Honestly, I have the Seahawks have to be the worst team in the league this year, But the fact is I can also see them.
I mean, the Jaguars beat the Colts two years ago there were the word and then didn't win another game like anything.
You know, Yeah, also.
True and wild, and I could see this team muddling through several wins. Like you said, play sloppy. It's a Gino Smith led run, heavy offense where you're just trying to go in and get it done and gets as much as you can.
I see completely where you're coming from here.
I don't I certainly don't want to lay six and a half with the Broncos on the road in this spot.
Matt, what do you think, Yeah, I'm more on the side of the Seahawks, but I think this team is so disgusting that I definitely would not bet it. What I do agree with will On is that this is going to be an ugly game. I think like the the idea of Pete Carroll wanting this to be sloppy, you know, like run the ball three yards in a clouded dust. I think that's that's totally how this game plays out. And I think, you know, with Russell Wilson, like he's a good quarterback, but it is a quarterback
in a new offensive system, new receivers, new team. It wouldn't be surprising to see the Broncos. I wouldn't say, like struggle on offense, but just not be as good to start the season as they will be to finish the season on offense. And so you put all of that together and I would say, if I'm betting on this game, I would be betting the under. You can get it forty five and a half, sorry, forty five
at DraftKings. The consensus line looking at betting pros right now is forty four and a half, and internally we have this projected at forty two point eight. So I think there is some value here on the under. If I'm betting this game, I am taking the under here.
I'm completely with you on that. I could see this being like a twenty four to ten finish or something like that.
Yeah, yeah, I give it. The under is one of my best bets on my podcast Recivs. I think it's him.
I think you're gonna have value on the Seahawks unders for the first three weeks.
Of the season. Frankly, like you can even like first half hunders, full game unders. You look at those games that were Gino played.
I mean they put thirty one up, they blew the Jaguars out thirty one to seven, but that game still would have flown way under. That thirteen ten game against Pittsburgh. I think it may take a couple of weeks.
For the books to realize just how slow Pete Carroll wants to play.
Yeah, all right, guys, well that is going to do it for our games of the week here for week one, it is officially football time. We're running long in the tooth. And I know I'm putting you guys on the spot here. It's not on the rundown, but I want to know if you're making it. We talked about Survivor picks at the beginning of the show. I want to bring it back around. If you have to pick one.
Game for a Survivor league this week, will where are you going?
Well?
First of all, podcast running a long and no real semblance of a rundown is basically my.
Daily NFL podcast for CBS, so fits the bill very nicely for me.
I think that the two spots, I think I'm just gonna go with the Ravens, like Ravens at Jets. It's not like I don't want to do that because I'd like to save the Ravens. I think I picked them to go to the super Bowl from the AC. I think it'll be a very good team, bounce back in a big way. Joe Flack, who may very well be an upgrade for Zach Wilson for this Week one game, which is kind of a problem and you get the
revenge factor there. But the the other games that you have to look at Colts at Texans, that's a divisional road game in Week one of the team that had one in Week one since twenty thirteen. I can't go there. And forty nine Ers at Bears. You know the trade Lance. Fact, like, we know what we're getting with the Ravens, their team
that dominates in week one. They've blown people out the last few years in Week one the forty nine ers, we think we know what we're getting, but there is a little uncertainty with Cherry Lance versus like the Lamar Jackson and that Ravens offense. There's so much consistency there. There's really no way they should lose to the Jets.
But it's this is a really tricky week for survivor because there's just no there's it's a ton of road chalk, and you know you're just gonna have to hope you avoid that one big, you know, sort of shocking week one, you know, underdog victory.
You know there's going to be chaos at the top, especially like you said, the amount of touchdown favorites on the road here is ridiculous.
I'm a Jets fan.
Joe Flacco is absolutely an upgrade over Zach Wilson. Jeez, I do not see I do not see the Jets pulling out a win here. I think I might have to go with that one as well. Matt, do you have a different differing opinion.
Yeah, I'm I'm tempted by the Ravens, but a team that stands out to me and I'm scared about a little bit. The Bengals six and a half favorites over the Steelers, and so it's a divisional game, but this is the biggest spread that they have if you're looking at the look ahead market, this is the biggest spread that they have all year. So you know they're a good team if you're going to use him at some point.
I feel like this is actually the game to use them and just kind of get them out of the way and save some of the other teams, the better teams for later in the year.
Yeah.
The one hang up I would have about the Bengals and is that we were talking about on the show and Prisco said that when he was in he was at Bengals camp and he saw Burrow and he said, Burrow looks like he looks frail. Like he looks frail because he's lost he lost so much of pinings. That's the only like concern is because remember last year when he come back in the ACL they were so slow, methodical about the offense early on, and so you just wonder,
like if they don't unleash the passing game. Will It'll allow Pittsburgh to hang around, And that's that's just my only concern.
I agree.
I mean, the Bengals are the biggest home favorite in Week one, right, I mean, yeah, the Steelers have Mitchell Trubisky. It makes a lot of sense that the Borough thing. And there's just there's no easy pick here. That's just amount of line.
Yeah, there is no easy pick. I think both of those games are reasonable. I love being able to pick a home team, especially in Survivor. I think if I had to present a third option, I'm going Eagles over Lions their four point road favorites. It's not my favorite's Again, there's not a lot that I love on this one. I just think that might be the spot where you use the Eagles here. I'd like to save them for later.
The Lions might be better. But I'm trying to pick something here and make the best of a bad situation.
I mean, I got the Eagles in the Super Bowl against Ravements.
You won't hear me complain I played out of the Eagles, But I mean I think the line probably a little eever, and I'm trying to see if the Eagles have.
They don't have a ton of great. They don't really have.
Any good Maybe the Jaguars at home in a couple of weeks. I'd be in early October. But I mean like, you got to survive. Yeah, use them, so don't don't hate it.
You got to pick something easy here. I like that you think birds are real. I'm on the Philadelphia Eagles.
Bandwagon with you. I have them to win the one seed in the NFC.
Did you know that there's never been an all bird mascot Super Bowl?
I did not know that. I do know that there's a team this year that can run the bird gauntlet.
Right, Well, I'm going Eagles Ravens is to be the That is my sole analysis of that Super Bowl pick is.
All birds, all birds.
They're real deep to dive into birds.
Well, guys, that is going to do it for us. Here it is time for some football. Best of luck.
This weekend to everyone. We hope you cash your tickets.
Will where can people find you and all the great work you're doing around the internet at.
Will Brinston on Twitter and Instagram And then the Pick six Podcast, a daily NFL podcast. We are on YouTube, YouTube dot com, slash pick six every Day live at one pm for the now until the rest of time. We also do live recap shows after the Sunday show, which is like two am Eastern. Come join us for that loopy session and then we'll be live after the
Rams RAMS actually after every primetime game. Hover to what I'm saying, and also you can find it on like Spotify, sit your Apple, Google Play, wherever else you get your podcasts.
Highly encourage you guys to go check it out. They do absolutely awesome work. One of my favorite things to do. You know, just go out, get on tack myself on a little date and just listen to a podcast, always picking up the Pick six podcast as that option. You guys do fantastic work over there. And if you like the work that we're doing here, don't forget like subscribe and share all that good stuff. Thank you guys so much for listening to us today. Follow me, find me
on Twitter, at TV at work. You can find Matt of course at matt fb Oracle, and don't forget to follow at Betting Pros as well.
And guys, we will see you next episode. Pas