Hey there, everyone, and welcome back to another episode of the Betting Pros NFL Podcast, brought to you by play MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. We've talked about the sports betting landscape. We've talked about wind totals and team futures and player futures, and how sportsbooks reacted to the Andrew Luck news and betting trends that we've noticed. But now finally we get to move away from the longview and
focus on a weekly analysis. Starting now, we're going to have two shows each week. The first one, which we'll record Monday night, will take a look at the spreads and over unders for every game that upcoming week. That's just going to be our reaction to the lines and where we think they might move by game time. The second podcast, later in the week, we'll address some of our best bets. This in case you hit your head and blacked out for a bit and think it's Thursday
or something. Is the first one of the week, and with me to break down all the lines for week one is Sean Green. Usually I try to give like a five word description of who our guest is, but I cannot possibly sum up Sean that quickly. He is the co creator of the sports Gambling podcast. He is the host of Sewan's Sports Show. He is the co host of Untied on Mad Dog Sports Serious XM. He is a comedian and a writer, and he invented that valve do Hickey on the artificial Heart. Fine, I made
that last one up. That's actually just a line from one of the most underrated movies of all time, My Blue Heaven with Steve Martin Rick moranis but the rest of that is all true. You can find him on Twitter at Seawan T. Green Shawn. Thank you for coming on the show. How is it going?
Awesome? Man, Thanks for having me on. Yeah. I probably need that heart valve thing. Sweating out these week one NFL games.
Oh man, I am so excited that it's finally time. It's so ridiculous. And look, I mean, you know, I'm interested, of course in sports gambling in every single sport. Frank, I love the WNBA actually, and I've talked about that a couple of times. I think that sometime where you can really if you're attention, you can really make some money. But there is nothing like real football to get us going.
So for me, this is basically like the last It's like leading up to Christmas morning, you know what I mean.
Oh, totally yeah, And through the summer, the long summer, you're just counting down the days to finally bet on NFL. I did. I Actually I hit a couple of parlays betting the NFL preseason, so I'm already ahead of the game, which is pretty rare. Normally I don't do that much NFL preseason, but I dabbed a little bit, hit a couple and yeah, I'm already I'm starting out ahead, which is a nice place to start.
That's always great. You know, we were thinking about doing a couple of preseason episodes to address, you know, betting on some of the preseason games, so we just did not have enough time. But that's good because now I know I can book you for next season and you can be the preseason betting experts since you're clearly one of the top minds in the game when.
It comes to well, spoiler alert, just keep betting on the Ravens. For some reason, they keep winning every Harboll's won seventeen preseason games in a row or something. Insane. So there you go. That's a little nugget for next season.
You can do absolutely nothing else on this podcast, and you have already provided tons of value to the listeners. So congratu. Like you're betting you're already off to a great start. So all right, Look, it's opening week. Things are a little different than usual here in that there really isn't all that much recent news for sportsbooks to react to at this point. For example, on any given week, there are going to be injuries or developments on that
previous Sunday. But here, other than things like whether Cam Newton is gonna play and he probably will, or whether Melvin Gordon is going to report and he probably won't, there's not much that's going to make a difference. So Shawn and I are going to quickly hit all the lines here. But as I said earlier, we're not going to be giving picks on this show. This is really about going through the lines and giving you our reaction
to them. So Sewan, look, you host plenty of shows, as I listed, but this is my show, and it is a no nonsense show, and I make the rules, so we are going to go through them in the order of least interesting to most interesting based on my unofficial boring rankings.
Okay, i'd like, yeah, I like this. I want to, I want to. I'm interested to see where you're gonna start off as the Borinus game of the NFL Week one.
Well, I mean, look, there's like an eight way tie, but I'm gonna I'm gonna just pick one of them and go with it. Now, for the spreads and the over unders, we're gonna be using the bettingpros dot Com consensus numbers. That is an aggregation of the odds that are available on the market. And you're gonna hear me say this a lot over the course of these shows, but there are occasionally pretty significant differences in the odds
that are available in the market. For example, with the Cults and the Chargers, you'll see that you can get a full point difference in the spread depending on where you look. For the Bengals and the Seahawks, there's actually a point and a half difference between two of the sportsbooks. And again, we're gonna be using the bettingpros dot Com consensus odds because that best represents what the market is showing. But bettingpros dot Com will also let you see all
the odds that are available at various sportsbooks. So it is a good thing to check out if you're looking to maximize your return on your investment. And as we'll talk about more next show, you can do a ton more over at bettingpros dot com, like at consensus picks from experts, and you can see accuracy rankings. But for now, just know that when I list any given odds, they're
bettingpros dot Com consensus ods. So, Sean, let's start with a game that few people outside of gamblers and fantasy players are gonna watch, and that's gonna be the final game of the week, The Broncos at the Raiders Super late for me on the East Coast on Monday night, just getting started for you on the West coast. The Raiders here are laying half a point and the over under is at forty three. Now, when the lines first came out months ago, that's where the overunder was forty three.
It has not moved, but the line actually opened at the Raiders laying two and a half points, so it has dropped two full points. What is your reaction to this line, if.
Any Well, yeah, I mean, uh yeah, see that's right.
Yeah, uh whatever, Right, that's exactly right. It's just it's the most boring. It's not the one on the list of boring lines.
I think the it's interesting. I'm surprised it wouldn't be a little higher for the Raiders. The public seems to be somewhat high on the Raiders, and they usually the hard knocks team will usually get a little bit of a push. I think there's been a crazy trend of the visiting team going six to zero or something like that in this division matchup. But yeah, to me, the matchup here is Vic Fangio versus John grud as far as coaching, So that's what I'm really looking forward to.
Well, I mean, we're gonna be watching it because we're gonna be watching every football game. But I mean, when I see this line, it looks relatively where it needs to be. There's nothing too exciting here. There's no real developments. Antonio Brown is going to play, he was always going to play. It's essentially a pickham game. Now it's a low over under total and that makes sense to me. But really, Raiders laying half a point relatively a pick them.
I think they'll hold that half a point, and I think the over under is going to wind up at forty three. So again, nothing really exciting here. It's not a game that anybody except gamblers and fantasy players really want to watch. So let's move on to number two in the boring rankings, and that's the Falcons at the Vikings. The Vikings here are laying three and a half points.
The over under is at forty seven. Now again, the spread opened at the Vikings laying four and a half and a forty seven and a half total, So the spread has moved in favor of the Falcons just a little bit since it first opened months ago. Do you have any thoughts when looking at those numbers?
Yeah, I guess it's kind of where I expected. I wouldn't be surprised if this number closes closer to three. I think these teams are pretty evenly matched, both Dome teams. It's interesting to me that they're you know, the betting public has got it so that the Vikings are laying that extra half point. You know, normally you're saying home Field's worth three, they're giving them three and a half.
Maybe they're just factoring in. I know Minnesota has a pretty good home field advantage usually that really helps their defense, but again, the Falcons are a dome team, so I don't know if the noise and that kind of stuff affects them as much as your typical road team.
That's right. The surprising thing to me was honestly that it opened at four and a half, because to me, this does feel everything about it kind of feels like if they're on a neutral field, it's a pick them right, which would make it essentially three. So at three and a half, I think it's fine. I could see it moving to three, as you said, But in the end, my guess is this is not something where I think better as sharps or the public are really going to
push one way or another. The over under at forty seven is right around I think where it needs to be. Both teams have relatively strong defenses. The Vikings certainly have a strong one, so it's kind of high when you think about it in that sense, but again, both teams are basically capable of bearing it out at any given moment.
Yeah, oh sorry, I was just going to say the Vikings. There's been a couple offensive coordinators teams that have kind of signaled their intention as far as what they're going to do on offense, and the Vikings have kind of gone out of their way to say they're going to pound the rock more and run the ball more. I mean, they do have two really good receivers, but that's something that I would keep an eye on because listen, if you're running the ball more, it could have an impact on the total.
Yeah, for sure. In the end, my guess is Vikings three and a half at most. You're gonna see Vikings go to plus three minus three at this point, and I'm pretty sure that the over ender is going to stay right at about forty seven. If or no of the reason. Then again, both teams have kind of telegraphed what they do, especially the Vikings. Next on our list is forty nine ers at Bucks. The Bucks are laying one and the over under is at fifty. This opened at the Bucks laying two and a forty nine total,
so it has moved slightly. Look, you must be super excited about this line, right, This has just got strong reaction written all over it.
Oh. I mean not to tip my hand, but I've been super high. If you listen to our division previews, super high on the Tampa Bay Bucks and really down on the forty nine ers. Jimmy Garoppolo has just not looked great in preseason at all, in practice at all. And it's one of those old betting trends of a West Coast team go to an East Coast team or you know, going to the East Coast. And another trend worth looking at is these Florida teams at home in September.
If you saw last year, I think I think all three Florida teams went three and zero to start off the season. And with the way that they've kind of adjusted in the collective bargaining that they can't practice these guys as hard, humidity and heat early increases the home field advantage. So that's definitely something I factor into my handicapping is high elevation teams and Florida teams are where it's going to be super hot or humid, especially early in the season.
So out of curiosity, if you were going to predict a line, if you didn't know what it was, would you have thought that the Bucks were then laying two or three or something like that.
Well, I guess I think it should be Bucks, mindus three. However, I know the forty nine ers the public is kind of on them, so I'm not surprised that they've kind of made it a pick because the forty nine Ers, the consensus I think from the public is, oh, they have a really good team, sh had hands, a really good coach. All they got to Jimmy G was hurt last year. That's why they were bad. Just swap him in. Now that he's healthy, they'll be fine. One I don't
think Jimmy G is completely healthy or completely right. He also struggled in those three games before he blew out his ACL and Nick Mullins didn't do a horrible job for that forty nine ers team. Like, there's a lot more issues going on in San Francisco than just Jimmy G not being there.
All right, So let me ask you this, then, what about the total at fifty that's a fairly high total. It's not you know, I think it's probably fourth maybe fifth highest for the week, but fifties a fairly high total. I know the Bucks have what may be an explosive offense, especially with Bruce arians running the ship, But do you feel, you know, if the forty nine ers, you know, you sound of course down on that offense? Did you expect
the total then to maybe be a little lower. Is it more a question about the Bucks defense?
Yeah, I mean the Bucks could still have issues on defense. You're right, fifty for an opening day is kind of high.
That's really what what came out to me. I mean, I know it opened at forty nine. If anything, I kind of expected it to go down to forty eight and a half, especially, you know, given how hot it's going to be, which you mentioned assuming because it's in Florida. You know, I just feel like in the end, you know, guys are going to be you know, they're not going to be ready to go yet. You know, it's the week one. I thought because of the question marks on
offense with the forty nine ers, which are right. Everything you're saying about Garoppolo is right. And you know, the Bucks, although they're pretty explosive, you know, the Winston was sacked five times in that third preseason game. You know, the running game can't do anything. I'm not sure they're going to be able to score it well. So for me, the thing that stuck out to me was less about the spread Bucks laying one. I'm fine, I could see it anywhere from the Bucks laying one two, as you said,
the Bucks laying three I think would be fine. But the over under at fifty, I really felt like when I was predicting it that that was sort of it would have been about a point and a half lower somewhere around there.
Yeah. I mean, you look at some of the the other games Tampa Bay hosted in September last year, and they did score in the high forties. Eagles they beat twenty seven to twenty one, so that's forty eight, and Steelers they lost twenty seven to thirty. So I guess that's kind of what they're that high total on. But I'm worried about I'm worried about San Francisco's ability to score on the road.
Yeah, I mean, I guess you know, one thing to take away from this is that the preseason probably doesn't move the needle very much from the opening lines, right, because that you know that the forty nine ers, as you said, look terrible. Garoppolo other than Week three where he looked passable, you know, not great, but certainly did not shine in the preseason, But the it didn't move much that the line moved in favor of the forty nine ers. Actually so yeah, yeah.
And I don't think you know, the betting public, I think is since so few of starters are playing now, I think it's impacting even less and less as far as what they do to adjust the number based off what happens in preseason.
Yep, I think that makes sense. All right, Let's move to the Titans at the Browns. The Browns here are laying five and a half points. The over under is that forty five and a half, and this has really barely moved since it opened. It opened at the Browns laying five with a forty five point total, so a half a point movement in both of those lines. Any reaction to those numbers, Yeah, I.
Would say that that kind of makes sense. Again, you know, when they're setting these lines, they're looking to get even money on both sides. And I know the Browns are just have been a huge public team. They just are like they're the kind of the darling as far as Super Bowl picks.
Or you know, and Mayfield is MVP. The public's all over them.
The public's all over them. No one's hyping up Tennessee. And so you know, there's probably a point point and a half baked into that line. Listen, Tennessee, they were what nine and seven last year? Brown seven, eight and one. Brown's kind of had a thing last year where they stuck up on people. Now they've they've cho you know, they painted a giant target on their chest. And if you're looking to find value long term and betting, fading the public.
Is always the thing to do, correct always.
Yeah, one in doubt, just go against the betting public. They didn't build these million dollars sports and casinos by being on the wrong side historically. So if you see a team that's getting a ton of early hype, the public's clearly backing them, you know, be hesitant on taking them, or just know that if you are going to take them, you're probably you know, paying an extra point point and a half premium to bet that team. So all that stuff's kind of worth factoring in.
Yeah, I expected this spread is fine. You know, I have no problem with five and a half. I would have felt that it probably should have been in around five where it opened. But the over under strikes me as a little high. I mean, both these teams are defensive teams. Again, it could just be sort of public perception. As you said, they're trying to get you know, basically
even money on both sides. So it could be really the public perception, but it seems to me, given the strength of the two defenses, that would be more like a forty four and a half, you know, instead of it moving up moving down. My guess is that that's based much more on the money coming in rather than what they expect.
Yeah. Yeah, And I'm looking over at betting pros right now. They have the consensus numbers and just as I thought, Cleveland getting sixty nine percent at minus five and a half. So anytime you get like high sixties, seventies, I mean, anything that's up around eighty, then you really gotta like just factor that into decide you're on.
Absolutely. Let's move on now to the Redskins at the Eagles. We've got the Eagles laying nine and a half and the over under at forty five and a half. Now, this is actually one of the more significant movers since the totals first opened. The Eagles were originally laying eight in most places, and the total was at forty six and a half. Basically, it looks like there's just doubt as to whether the Redskins can actually score any points, and I don't necessarily think that that doubt is unfounded.
What are your thoughts there on the nine and a half and the over under at forty five and a half.
Yeah, I mean I'm a Dahard Eagles fan.
So can you be objective?
Yeah?
Can you be objective? I'm a Jets fan, man, So I can still do this. I can still get up in the morning. You just got to power through.
Any The NFCA is historically has been a super competitive division and anytime a divisional game you're getting close to double digits, I mean you gotta look to the dog. The issue here is Washington's left tackle, one of the strengths of their team, is just refusing to play because of his issues with the medical staff. They're starting Eric Flowers, a right guard who is a horrible offensive lineman, and they're bringing in Case Keenum, who the last time in
Case Keenum was a quarterback for the Redskins. He got destroyed in the NFC Championship game with a much more talented Vikings team. So I think Washington is going to have trouble moving the ball and scoring.
Wait, look, hold on, everything you were saying is dead on. And because of that, How is it possible that this isn't actually double digits. That's really what I'm surprised that. I mean, legitimately, everything you're saying is absolutely correct. I mean, look, maybe not. I'm going to be so prize that if this does not get to ten by the time game time rolls around, because there's got to be money coming in.
This seems to me. I was shocked, honestly when I sort of closed my eyes and said, okay, let me think before I started even looking at any of this, what this would be at this point, given everything that you just correctly brought out, I would think that it's honestly got to move a little to I'm fine with the over under. I'm fine with that, but I would think would go over. But it's worth noting I mentioned that you can sometimes get different odds at different sports books.
This is at nine and a half across the board. Everybody is in unison, so I must be missing something here. But to me, I honestly think that this should be at ten, maybe even ten and a half, probably ten, and that I think it might end up there when all of a sudden done.
Well, you know, I don't know if you on the podcast if you discuss key numbers a lot, but for you know, in the NFL, key number three, four, seven, in a weird way, nine is oftentimes a key number
for the sportsbook. So if the spreads at seven and a half a lot of times and gonna move it up a lot of times, they'll jump it up to nine to kind of they call it teaser protection, right, So if you're doing a six point teaser, they don't want you to be able to get the game down to three or you know, under three, and you're getting under that key number of three. So that's why, you know, once it was at seven and a half eight, and then they saw it was gonna go up, they jumped
it up to like nine and a half. So if you tease it down, it only goes down to three and a half.
Yeah, no, I do get that. I completely get that. Still, this line needs to move to ten. And I'm going, all right, let's go to the only line in any normal regular sports fan should ever care about the only game bills of Jets. Of course, the Jets here are laying three. The over under is set at forty. Now this open up. The Jets lank three and a half with a minuscool thirty eight and a half point total, but it has moved just a little bit up. Any thoughts on those lines, No.
I mean, if you give me a blindfold and told me to pick the spread, I would definitely would have guessed three. Yep, very very similar, similar teams, similar states of where they're at. The Bills defensive minded team, Sean McDermott really coached up the defense well, and then you got just a real wild card of quarterback Josh Allen, who's made some plays, have made some crazy turnovers. And then you got the Jets, who they got some weapons
for Sam Darnold. I do think Donald will have a much better second year under Adam Gase and just helping him out with Le'Veon Bell. There's certainly some questions Jets defense. So yeah, I three totally makes sense, and I think this is a good a good barometer game for both these teams. I think you'll get a kind of idea of where these teams are at. As far as who's gonna be runner up to the Patriots, No offense.
I'm none taken. I mean to even be in the conversation of being a quote unquote runner up I will take any day of the week. Two questions. Robbie Anderson is likely to play in this game if he misses the game. I mean that's the last I heard. He was questionable for the week. If Anderson missed the game, do you think that moves the spread at all?
No? No, I mean I would be pretty surprised if you're if you're a non quarterback, you have to be really like top tier to have an impact on the on the spread. Usually it could be maybe Robbie Anderson goes out and a lot of people at him on their fantasy team and all of a sudden they're they're pounding the bills. But generally the linemakers won't really adjust
their number off a guy. It has to be a pretty big name running back or receiver for to really make an impact to me when I'm when I'm looking at games, left tackle is a huge one, and offensive line in general, and this is again a nice way to find values. A lot of times, you know, jo Q Public when on offensive lineman like Trent Williams for the Redskins, or or Laramie Tunsell, who the Dolphins just traded away. A lot of times when stuff like that happens.
The public, in their mind, doesn't compensate enough for that, and they'll compensate more for a guy like Robbie Anderson, who they'll probably be able to still have some offensive production without, but not having a left tackle, especially with a guy like Sam Dartled. If the left tackle was supposed to go out, that would definitely adjust my number, and maybe not for the public.
Yeah, we're gonna talk about the left tackles, actually, because when we get to the Texans, we'll talk about the fact that hasn't really moved very much, and I thought that the addition of Tunsel actually might move that line a little more. I said two questions, but I'm going to skip the second one because frankly, we just can't spend too much time on the pills and the Jets. Let's be honest. Let's move on to another not all that exciting game, the Lions at the Cardinals. The Lions
are laying two and a half here. The over under is at forty seven and a half. This originally opened as a pickum game and the over under was at forty nine, so the over under has been steadily dropping. It was forty eight just a day or two ago. Now it's at forty seven and a half. How do you feel about both those lines?
Yeah, I mean Detroit as a road favorite is historically kind of scary. Yeah, but again, that's what Matt Stafford does. Matt Stafford beats bad teams. And I think the line movement came courtesy of watching Kyler Murray play in the preseason. So this is a game where I do think watching the players in preseason did rightly adjust the line movement. Huge questions on the Cardinals on the defensive side of the ball, and just Kyler Murray in general, rookie quarterback
making his first home start. I guess it kind of makes sense. I wouldn't be surprised if this gets above three at kickoff. I wouldn't be shocked to see Cardinals plus three and a half because they're just Yeah, it's Cliff Kingsbury's first start in the NFL, A guy who wasn't competent enough to coach coach college football and then somehow got a promotion into the National Football League. A lot of questions and I'm not even them, not even
a huge Lions backers. There certainly questions about Matt Patrician and the stuff they're doing.
I think for me, the bigger number here was the over under. Yeah, forty seven and a half. I you know, I understand the questions on defense, especially for the Cardinals, but you know, it struck me as too high, and I'm not surprised that it moved and that it was, you know, originally forty nine, recently forty eight. Now at forty seven and a half. I could see it even
going to forty seven. I think that, you know, it just it seems given what we saw for exactly what you said, given what we saw from the Cardinals offense in the preseason, and it might be different. I mean, you know, Kingsbury said that he was keeping at vanilla, so you never really know how it's going to go.
But to me, the total seemed to be a little high. Again, that's right about you know where you know, not not crazy, but I would have thought it more like forty seven, maybe forty six and a half.
Yeah, And I do think that's reaction to seeing the Arizona Cardinals offense in preseason. Yeah, even if they're doing a vanilla scheme, there's still some basic execution stuff that he was clearly struggling with. So I think originally when they hung a forty nine, their thought was, Wow, they're gonna move the ball on offense with struggle and defense, and now they become less certain about them moving the ball.
No, absolutely, And again I check the lines every day just to see where it was, and again it was forty eight either yesterday or maybe two days ago, and it's down to forty seven and a half. So I wouldn't be completely surprised to see if drop half a point further, as probably more money comes in, We're gonna get into some of the more interesting lines here in a second, including the Chiefs that the Jaguars and the
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state of New Jersey to place a sports bet. Visit playmgm dot com for the full list of terms and conditions. And if you've got a gambling problem, call one eight hundred gambler. All right, let's move to the Chiefs and the Jaguars. Here the Chiefs are laying three and a half and the over under is at fifty two. Then the Chiefs actually opened at minus five with a fifty two and a half over under. So what are your thoughts there on those?
Yeah, I mean lots of unpack here because you got Andy Reid, who historically has done pretty well on opening day, and he's going up against a quarterback that he knows with Nick Foles. They just saidden Mishawe McCoy. It's interesting. So you said it open at five and now it's three and a half.
Yeah, I mean, and again these are months ago when it first up, but when it first came out. Yeah, was that minus five when it first came on the board.
Yeah, that's it. I mean that's interesting too, because yeah, I would think it could even be you could probably get away making it a little higher. So the fact that it's three and a half, even though you're talking road favorite, you know, it's the travel isn't as bad Week one because they're not coming off another game.
I mean, it might be some of it. Of course, they struggled a little bit against the Jaguars last year. You know that was Mahomes's worst game as a pro. I mean part of it could be that. For me, it's the total be over under at fifty two. I mean I get it.
The Chiefs, you.
Never know they can, you know, put up a four spot with ease, but it's the second highest total of the week. It felt me more like a like a fifty one or fifty one and a half, just because you know, the Jaguars have a strong defense. The Chiefs have improved someone on defense. You know, the Jaguars are home, it's gonna it strikes me as a close game. I just you know, I thought that the over under struck me as a little high.
Yeah, the Chiefs have brought in new guys on defense. You know, you got Tyron Matthew, the Honey Badger, you got Frank Clark helping out with the pass rush. And the Jaguars have seemingly again they're they're making it clear that they're going to try and get Fournette back to back to form, and I think they'll be running the ball more, doing some rpo stuff, which is I think the Jaguars formula for victory in this game and in
general is ball control and good defense. And that's usually something that would shade the under rather than the over.
Right. That that's really what struck out to me. I mean, again, not not crazy, but it struck me as fifty two seems a little high given what I think the game is likely to unfold as All right, let's move to the Packers at the Bears. The Bears here are laying three points. The over under is at forty six and a half. Now, this has not moved from when this first came out months ago. It opened up with the Bears laying three and a half and the over under
at forty six, So very very minimal movement here. What are your thoughts?
Yeah, I mean this again probably makes sense as far as the spread. You know Division games early on, it makes sense to be three and a half the total. The total again, yeah, forty six and a half. You're dealing with a couple new variables with this Packers offense. Again, they they seemingly haven't shown much with the floor. The dynamic between Rogers and Lafleur is interesting, and the Bears don't have vic fans here anymore. So I think I
think there's a chance, especially Packers first half. I think the Packers are really going to have a chance to put up some points just because you know they're gonna come in with that Lafleur offense. That there's no tape on, and instead of going up against Vic Fangio, they're going up against Chuck Pagano, which is definitely a step down in my mind as far as the coordinator.
Yeah, without question. But you know, the other on the other side of the coin, the Packers defense is greatly improved too, right. I mean they added a lot of pieces there last year when they played twice when the Bears were at home, the Bears won twenty four to seventeen. So you know, for me again, you know, I feel like I've been talking much more about the over unders
generally with these things. But again, I kind of expected the over under to be more like forty five and a half or somewhere like that because but you raise a good point with Fangio. So it's possible the Bears defense takes a little step back here and we don't know exactly what the Packers' offense is going to look for. Yeah, so I think it's fair to me, you know, when it stuck out, this is where it's going to end up. By the way, I mean, the Bears are going to
be laying at game time. The Bears are going to be laying three, and the over under is going to be at forty six and a half. I can almost guarantee you which is fine, and it's around there, but I kind of thought it might be more at forty five and a half forty.
Six I could. I see where you're come up with that.
Yeah, all right, let's move on to the Ravens at the Dolphins. Now the Ravens are laying seven and the over under is at a ridiculously low thirty seven and a half. Now, this opened up with a thirty seven over under, but the Ravens were actually laying three and a half when this first opened up. And I look the other day and the Ravens were laying six and a half. It has now moved to seven. There are a ton of changes recently for the Dolphins. So what
are your thoughts? Do you think that this is a where the lines are going to end up at seven and thirty seven and a half or what?
Yeah, I mean, I think what will happen is it'll it'll stay at seven just because the anti dolphin sentiment from the betting public is so strong. I think it could even go up to if it goes anywhere, I think it could go to seven and a half.
One hundred. That's where I think it ends up. Seven and a half.
Yeah, that's where I see it closing. Ass I'd really be shocked if the underclose, if the total closes this low. But again that's just based on the anti Dolphin sentiment. And yeah, so the trends or stuff I'm looking at when I'm handicapping this game home Dogs, historically, there's a bunch of value there. Again, the Dolphins were one of those Florida home teams, so that's something I'm factoring in
Lamar Jackson on the road. But the Dolphins they just got rid of their left tackle, So that's that's the other side. That's the other side of the handicap. And you know, Fitsmagic, who from what I've read, is going to be starting. He's he's a guy, he's a guy that you can tell him you're taking. But this guy, especially early on or a couple of games, he's going to be scrappy. The problem is this, This Ravens defense is really strong. Earl Thomas seems to be kind of
in fu mode. I mean literally, the last time he was on the field, he's being carted off, giving Pete Carroll the finger. So he seems highly motivated. Those are kind of the things I'm looking to handicap. But as far as where I think it'll close, I didn't think the under or sorry the total, the line will close higher to seven and a half. And I think if you're gonna bet the over, bet it now, because I do think it'll go up a couple points.
Yeah, I think that's fine. I think the over under, I think it'll say roughly around where it is. I mean again, if it goes anywhere, maybe have a point. But I agree I will be shocked if this ends at the Ravens laying seven. At this point, I mean, I think it's got to go up. For all the reasons you talked about. It's just really difficult to see how the Dolphins are going to be able to put up any points whatsoever in this game. Steelers at the Patriots.
Pats are laying five and a half. The over under is at fifty and a half. This opened at the Pats laying six and the over under at fifty one and a half, so they're not too much movement here. What are your thoughts on this one?
Let's see. Yeah, it's interesting the Patriots are they're one of the teams. You said the Pats, right, Yes, the Pats. Yes, Okay, yeah, they're one of these teams that I mean, hey, they're the Patriots. They're amazing. But when they have struggled, it has been early on, right, you know, September is in the rough Mont, the Steelers playing against the Patriots. That's always their super Bowl. That's the game they get up for.
When I'm betting, I usually look at what will happen the Steelers a lot of time the game before they play the Patriots. They often overlook that game because they're so jacked up for the Patriots. The fact that they're playing the Patriots the first game that I think actually.
Is a huge benefit for the Patriots or sorry for the Steelers, because they get so jacked up to play the Patriots they can't overlook another team and they've you know, just basically spent the whole offseason with the Patriots on their calendar.
There. Yeah. Other than that, I guess the number seems about rights. I don't know. It'll be interesting to see if there's any kind of crazy action one way or the other, because it is Sunday night, so there could be some line movement as far as people looking to catch up from what happened during the day. But and let's see the total. Yeah again probably well, no, fifteen and a half seems in the ballpark, Steelers have been able to show that they can just put up points.
The real thing that's interesting is Ben Roethlisberger on the road. He's had some Sure, he's had some wildly poor performances, but then also he's thrown for five thousand yards, so he's kind of been a wild card on the road. Patriots at home and in Foxborough are just, you know, machines when it comes to winning games and covering spreads. So I wouldn't be surprised it's five and a half, maybe it gets up to six. Stuff usually doesn't close a five and a half, so I wouldn't be surprised
if he gets the six. It's definitely not going to get up to a full touchdown, and I don't see it getting down to four.
Yeah. My reaction essentially is a giant shrug emoji. I honestly, you know, these teams, they play each other hard. It's weird because it's the first game of the season. As you said, there's always build up to it. It did strike me as roughly fifty, roughly five and a half, roughly six. I bet you that's probably where it stays. And I feel like, you know, we don't really know what these teams are going to look like. I do think, you know, the Patriots have a better defense, I think,
than they've had in a couple of seasons. So I'm interested to see, you know, whether that total, if anything, maybe drops half a point. But in the end, I think it's really tough to gauge.
And primetime games where there's gonna be more public action, especially teams like the Patriots and the Steelers too. I mean, listen, there's a reason it's on Sunday night NBC is two huge fan bases that will really helped the ratings and drive a lot of action. And you know, when the public gets involved, they're gonna want to take the over Simply, it's simple, simple brain mechanics. It's not fun to root
for the under. You know, everyone's probably got a bunch of their fantasy players, so they're rooting for scoring in action, so you know, they're probably gonna be people hitting the over all.
Right, let's move here to what I will call the uncertainty zone. Okay, there's a lot of moving parts that could have affected the lines, and I want to explore that a bit. And let's start with the Bengal at the Seahawks. The Seahawks here are laying nine points. The over under is set at forty four, and this originally opened at the Seahawks lank seven and a half points with a forty three and a half over under. So what are your thoughts on this game?
Yeah, I think that open at seven and a half was probably pre aj Green injury. But I do think a lot of this is, you know, the Clowny news, so possibly it's a it could be a little bit of an overreaction, but again, going from seven and a half to nine is usually just them kind of protecting themselves for teasers. And you got this Bengals team. It's a non conference road game in Seattle. Seattle again, super tough place to play, pretty solid home field, I mean
it used to be amazing. It's cooled off as of late, so I wouldn't be surprised if this gets a little higher. People talk to themselves into the Seahawks and Jadevian Clowney, you know, going to town on Andy Dalton and the fact that the Bengals don't and have Aj Green. I'm really high on Joe Mixon as a running back this year, so I think if they can run the ball, maybe they'll maybe they'll stay in this game. Forty four sounds about right.
YEP.
I don't think there's gonna be a much crazy shift as far as the total, but yeah, it seems to make sense.
I think the total probably stays where it is. I could see it moving to nine and a half just because there's some positive news coming out of Seattle. Sounds like DK Metcalf might actually play, and they re signed Jaron Brown, and I think Cody Glenn is in the concussion protocol so he may not play for the Bengals. So I think there's a lot of factors here that could certainly move the line a little bit more towards
the Seahawks. So I think probably when all of a sudden done, it ends up at nine and a half. But I agree with you, I think forty four probably sounds like the right number. Let's move on now to the Giants at the Cowboys. The Cowboys are laying seven points in the over unders at forty five and a half. It opened pretty close to that Cowboys minus seven and a half. When it first came over, the over under
was at forty six and a half. Now, we've got a lot of uncertainty here right as we record, there's not quite as much optimism, or now there might be more. It's changing by the minute as to whether Zeke signs, But even if he signs before week one, it's unclear what his workload is going to be. Amari Cooper is still a little bit of a question mark. So what are your thoughts here on the Cowboys laying seven and the over under at forty five and a half.
Yeah, I mean, I guess this is kind of earlier we had talked about Robbie Anderson and would he possibly move the line, and you look at Zeke Elliott and I mean maybe he moved at half a point, because I would be surprised he plays or at least plays his normal load at this point, you know, when we're recording this. So even Zeke Elliott, who's you know, a huge part of the Cowboys offense, he only maybe moved
it a half. You could certainly make a case for the fact that the Giants offensive line look better in preseason, and you know slight optimism coming out of Giants camp. There's also been a number of you know, the Giants, it's got a Golden Tate suspended. Certainly, Shepard broke his thumb, although it seems like he's close to one hundred percent. Their offensive line seems a little stronger. You know. The interesting thing here is again division game. That's a big number.
But you know, the betting public is pretty down on Eli Manning as a quarterback, and rightfully so. So that's if that's who the Giants are going to try it out as a starter. I think plus seven makes sense. It's certainly is not gonna go below seven. If it's gonna go anywhere, it'll go up to seven and a half, maybe eight. You know, if Zeke plays, maybe they'll bump it up to eight. But yeah, and the Mary Cooper thing, I think a lot of people are talking about Zeke,
whether he plays or not, as we're doing here. But I think if you if you look at the Cowboys offense, what really impacts him more has been a Mary Cooper playing or not playing. At least if you look at the numbers last year, he seemed to have a bigger impact.
Interestingly enough, on the offense. If you compare it to when Zeke has missed time the previous year and Planner fasciitis is a that's a red flag injury because a lot of times what happens is a guy thinks he can play, or he does try and play, and he's just he's like sixty percent or like they It's an injury where a lot of guys try and play through it but are just very they're just have no bursts.
And that's what you could really get in trouble if you're talking about handicapping the game or setting a fantasy lineup, because yeah, they'll be listed as probable or questionable and then you see they're out there and you're like, oh, it must be all right. But that that's a tricky, lingering injury and definitely something to keep an eye.
Yeah, and his history with it is not great. When he's dealt with issues around that area, he has not played all that well. So out of curiosity, if it comes out that Cooper is going to miss the game, used to you don't think it drops the line below seven though?
Right? No, that's the thing. I yeah, I don't think it'll move it a line, but I definitely think it should impact how you see the game going because I think if Zeke's out and Cooper's out, they're really gonna be in trouble as far as skill positions and and Cole Beasley was kind of his safety blanket. He doesn't have him there.
But the Cowboys got Jason Witten back, baby, Yeah, don't worry about it.
Yeah, that was a Jerry Jones didn't want the Cowboys brand being tarnished every Monday night by here and Jason witting on the broadcast.
Yeah, that's exactly right. It's not a bad move. I like his strategy.
Hey, you know, protect the brand. That really seems like you just bailed him out.
But well, good for him. At least hopefully he can at least contribute.
I wish my boss was as generous as Jerry Jones.
Well, I hope your boss isn't listening to this, all right? Rams at the Panthers rams laying three. The over under is at fifty. It started at the rams lank two and a half and an over under fifty one. Not too much movement here. We've got Cam Newton's injury. It looks like he's going to be good to go. But what are your thoughts here?
Yeah, yeah, And again the line makes sense because it's a West Coast team going to the East Coast. People have talked themselves into the Panthers once again. I'm really worried about Cam Newton. Like you watch Cam Newton before they shut him down last year. That shoulder, it just doesn't look right, and he like completely had to redo
his throwing motion. And he listened to Ron Rivera and they're talking about how they're just gonna have to manage him throughout the season and that's just his shoulder, and then he had this weird foot sprain. I think he's got a lot of stuff to work through. On the other side, if you look at this Rams team, there is something if you lose the Super Bowl that next season is really tough. And you look at the trend of teams coming off a Super Bowl loss, their ats
is not good. I don't but I think the public is kind of high on both these team so but obviously higher on the on the Rams. And that's why the spread is minus three for a road favorite. I don't think it's gonna be shifted one way or the other. The only thing that could shift it is if somehow Cam Newton is a late scratch.
What happens? Out of curiosity to the line, do you think if Newton is scratched?
I think it would go up to like six and a half or seven, Okay, I mean the thing is, which would be great for me because I like Will Greer. You know, obviously that's a tough first start for you, showing up against the Rams, but seven points is huge. But starting quarterbacks are really something that they'll automatically jump into the next key number.
I feel like gotcham All right, let's move on to the Texans at the Saints. The Saints here are laying seven. The over under is at fifty three and a half. This is pretty interesting because you were we've been talking about tackles, of course, but you've got essentially an offense that has entirely remade their team a little bit over the last few days. They lost. The Texans lost Lamar Miller and j Davian Clowney. They've added Laramie Tunsel and
Duke Johnson and Kenny Stilson. Yet everything has stayed almost exactly where it is. It opened at seven and a half, so it's moved only half a point. With the Saints now laying seven and the total has not moved at all. It opened at fifty three and a half. That is the highest of the week. So what's your reaction here to these lines?
I what I opened up the week one lines and I hadn't been tracking this line, you know, the entire summer or whatever. I was shocked. This was the most surprising line. Honestly thought this was gonna be like three and a half four.
You see why I kept it for our last right, you see why it ranks so low on the boring meter.
No, and I think it'll be I think it'll be an exciting game. And just man, last season when the Saints lost outright to the Tampa Bay Bucks, I go, what the hell? And then you look back at their history and they've under Sean Payton, They've been horrible opening day and just early on in September. I don't know. They suffer from the same thing that the Patriots do, and this to me is shocking. The Texans come in
highly motivated. Bill O'Brien is just saying, yeah, he's like he's like the drug friend, just you know, doing whatever it takes at the end of the night to talk to talk to a girl or whatever, because he is just clearly desperate. And I think that's I think that's it's just way too high. Like the Texans have a
competent team. Larry By Tunsel. I don't know if he's still gonna start week one or whatever, but I mean they were eleven and five last year, like they're not They're not a tray, you know, they should be getting more respect from the line. I was really shocked.
I couldn't agree more. And I when I looked at all the lines that are available, I expected to see, all right, somebody's got to at least be it, you know, minus six or something like that. So not now they are in locks that it is all the Saints lank seven across the board, and I completely agree. I tried to look at it now. I knew what it was originally, but I kind of put that in the back of my mind and I looked, yeah, this is more like the Saints lane forward, you know, some somewhere around there
four and a half something, three and a half four. Yeah, it's not moving though, I mean it hasn't moved at all, So this is I mean, it's gonna be.
Yeah, Drew Brees the second half. You know, after he took that crazy shot on Thanksgiving, he his numbers really dropped. I mean, he got rocked on that play and he was way more hesitant pushing the ball downfield. And perhaps we're kind of seeing him on the downward slide at the edge of his career. And Shaun Watson, by all accounts fully healthy. You know, he hasn't. He had the
whole offseason to really get right physically. They brought in Duke Johnson, and it just Bill O'Brien is just, you know, coaching with some urgency and.
Just yeah, he's going for it doing whatever.
I wouldn't be if I'm a Texans fan, I'm seriously worried about their long term prospects.
But you just got to block all that out, man. Yeah, just push all your chips in for this year.
If you're a Texans fan, all I can say is enjoy this season.
Yeah, let's hope it goes. Let's hope it goes better than than what your next several years and the draft is going to look like. So all right, let's finish up here with what I felt like was the most interesting game just because of Andrew Luck and everything that happened, and that's the Colts at the Chargers. The Chargers are currently laying six and a half and the over unders
had forty five. So, you know, originally when Luck was, you know, they thought Luck was healthier, even with some of the question marks, the Chargers were laying three and a half and it was a forty eight point total. Now when the Luck news broke, this initially moved the line from three and a half to the Chargers laying seven and a half. But it's gone down at this point to six and a half. I mean, is this just sort of is this money coming in? Is it
anything to do with the Melvin Gordon situation? What do you think it is? And at the line at six and a half, what are your thoughts on that?
Yeah, I mean this is this is the most interesting game, right and I think they've probably found the right number. I wouldn't. I think I could get to an even seven. It's a it's a weird line history because it almost seemed like too much of a reaction when Luck was out because Jacoby Brissett was in the system. He's gotten a bunch of reps. They have a solid team around him. The Chargers have no home field advantage. Again, they're also missing their left tackle, so that should be a concern
and something to factor in. You know, the Chargers always deal with these random injuries. The Chargers haven't looked great opening day as well. They've gotten off the slow starts. The Colts are really well coached. Frank Wright, he's just a solid coach. I think the Colts in a weird way.
If I was just you know, looking at the emotional handicapping of this game, the Colts I do think rally around and this is kind of like, hey, win one for us, show people we're more than Andrew Luck, Like, it feels like they're coming in with something to prove. I think seven is probably I think where it would close eventually, because once the public gets involved in this game and does the mat that you know, Andrew Lux not the coach or sorry, not the quarterback anymore, or
the coach. Maybe he'll one day we've got a coach through his backpacking the adventures are done. As far as the total, yes, forty five. Yes, it's kind of right in the middle. I think they're and you look around, this is probably one of the one of the bigger totals that has discrepancies, Like I'm over at betting pros and I'm seeing forty seven and a half to forty four and a half or even forty three and a half, but you're paying a little juice on that minus when thirty.
So I think they're throwing this total out to kind of see where the market goes, because I don't think the the people said in the lines have a great idea as to how this colts. Offense is gonna look a lot of uncertainty, So I would think this is kind of at forty five. I wouldn't be surprised if it if it goes down rather.
Than yeah, to me, I think this is roughly where it's gonna end up. I would think that the line line the spread is probably going to be at seven when all things are sent in. And again same thing with you over under with the spread. You can get it at plus seven at certain places, you can get it at plus six at some places. I mean, I mean, I know what to do.
I saw like when the luck news happened, I saw as high as nine and a half some places, So I mean that's crazy just comparing a nine and a half point spread to a six and a half point spread, when in between there no news has occurred. I think they're really struggling if I'm looking for this number. Yeah, if I was running a sportsbook, I would say it at seven and just walk away.
I completely agree. I think of all the numbers, this is the one that I can see changing probably the most. I mean, I could see it. I think it's probably going to end up at seven, and I think it'll stick at forty five, but I could see it moving more, just because it really feels throughout this entire thing like they don't really know how to get a handle of it.
Yeah, I think they're I think they're letting the volume really dictate this one. Sometimes they'll, you know, they'll they won't be afraid to take a position or a side or based on seeing, you know, where the money's coming in really kind of way in. But this one, I think they're kind of just leaving it out there for the public to figure out. Yep.
That's why it was the most interesting lines, my friend, That's why I said it that. Thanks man, All right, Well that's going to do it for today's show. Sean. It was really great having you on. I really hope we can do it again during the season.
Awesome man, Yeah, drop me a line and you don't have to twist my arm to talk about NFL gameless.
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