Hey there, everybody. Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris. Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris. Eighty Week one is here. It is time to talk about our best bets, and with me to do that is a fellow investor. What I will say in a Nick Sirianni Coach of the Year ticket. That's Sean Green, the co founder of the Sports Gambling podcast Network and co host of the Sports Gambling Podcasts. Find him at Twitter at Sean T.
Green. That's s e. A. And Shawn. Welcome to the show.
Thanks for having me, Thanks to be back on the show.
And yes, I'm so glad you are all over the Nick Sirianni Coach of the Year prop as well, because everyone says, Sean, you're an Eagles fan, it's blind homerism. But then when I have plays that are pro Eagles, which I am a blind homer at times that both people don't believe me. But you laid out the case very well. I think in the chat or when we were going back and forth. When you're looking for coach of the year, first year coaches really have an advantage
because it's all about exceeding expectations that narrative. Eagles are coming off of four win season, so if they can get to nine, ten, even eleven, wins Coach of the Year. And I think when we were when I got down on it was fifty to one. I think he may have dropped to like thirty five to one.
Oh yeah, I think I was thirty five to one when I took it.
By the way, what we were talking about is we were both in an FSGA prop league where you basically draft prop bets, and that was my first one and I did win it by a few, you know, dozen thousand dollars last year. But yeah, we were talking about that. We both like that bet, and Sean messaged me afterwards his actual ticket on that bet.
Yes, So, yeah, didn't.
I didn't get it.
You snaked me in the in the draft on it because I thought I'd be able to wait on it, and I kep thinking it was just more of a homer angle. But the Eagles to win the division is like five to one. If Nick Sirianni comes in and takes his team to win the NFC East, it just seems priced incorrectly there and a lot of the I think it's like four to the last six.
We're rookie head coaches, so fun times on that one.
Yeah, you can definitely make a profit on Coach of the Year bets, which we will talk about on our separate new podcast. Sean, I will be launching Nick Sirianni Coach of the Year all day, every day, but.
For maybe one to get behind him, let's do it man.
At this point though, we are actually going to be talking about week one, our three best bets of the weekend each Now, what was funny is we did not talk about these before selecting them.
And right before I said, Sean, you know, we haven't talked us through. Do you want to maybe throw it out so we know whether or not.
We're going to double up, And my worry was confirmed that we both had one overlapping thing bets.
So I will choose something different for it. I will let Sean.
Explain, but it was my favorite bet of the weekend, Shohn, So we'll go through that and then we will just through the remaining games just very quickly, whether we have a lean or feel on it. Just in terms of the spread. Again, one of my picks is and over under, so we can talk about that. But again let me get some very quick housekeeping out of the way before we dive into it. First, the Betting Pros podcast is
now going to be three times per week. On Monday, I'm going to record an episode with a guest talking about the lines and early look at the next week's lines and see whether or not we think there's any value that we could make.
Now, what we expect the lines to do.
On Wednesday is going to be our standing college football podcast with Joe Pizap.
And Scott Bagman. You should have already heard that as well.
It's gonna be every Wednesday and then Thursday. We were recording this Wednesday, but usually on Thursdays will be this podcast. I will have a rotating guest, hopefully Sean will grace us with his appearance a couple more times, and we'll be breaking down each of our three best bets of the week. Second, we are doing a giveaway. It is assigned to a tongue Iiloa Jersey. Entry is very simple.
Just leave a review for.
The show on Apple Podcasts or cast box and then go to Betting Pros dot com slash review. It's a different url to side Bettingpros dot com slash review.
That is it. It is very simple.
Also, if you want to triple your entries, all you got to do is be subscribed to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros. And also if you are, that's good because we do a Sunday morning livestream over there from eleven to twelve, me and Matt Parral breaking down the games. I will be giving out my favorite props which I come up with because I do projections for every Fantasy relevant player each and every week,
so I find the most value there. Again, that's eleven to twelve Eastern at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros. All right, I've talked a ton Sean, Let's get into it. Remember, we have consensus lines over at Bettingpros dot com.
That's where I'll be looking.
But obviously they give you a lot of different books so you can check out what you like, what you.
Don't, which one is favorable, Sean.
Also, we have our app, by the way, sorry, I want to mention that Betting Pros app. It's awesome. You make picks right in the app. You see yourself on a leader board. You can, you know, look at everybody and how everything is doing. The percentage of experts that are picking a bet. I'm done, Sean Go, I'll stop talking. Please your first pick, sir, what will it?
Well, let's let's let's knock this one out of the out of the way here. We were both on the Seattle Seahawks lay in two and a half at the Indianapolis Colts. Again, I went through the Carson Wentz saga last year, and now Carson Wentz on a new team, didn't have much of a preseason, didn't have much of a training camp. Sure, he has the rapport with Frank Reich, but I think that foot injury was a big issue for him and just not being able to connect with the receivers.
T Y Hilton is out and it's not just you know, Wentz's injuries.
Really why I'm taking this, And normally I'm not a guy who likes to you know, a non conference road favorite danger spot, but I think the injuries surrounding the offensive line for the Colts are really really going to be an issue. Quentin Nelson all pro. He didn't practice Wednesday. He's dealing with the back injury that's flaired. He's been on the COVID list. He also had this similar foot injury that Carson Wentz had. Xavier Rhoades he didn't practice
as well. He's day to day with a calf injury. I think that's gonna be a big issue, especially when you talk about guarding DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in this new Shane Waldron offense, which really could be an issue. And then lastly, left tackle, it's really they very well could be down to their third string left tackle for the Colts. Anthony Costans are retired. Eric Fisher seemed like the guy that was supposed to replace him. He's coming off an achilles injury, a late achilles injury. He was
just on the COVID list. He's coming off the COVID list today. There's a chance he starts, but again, not much of a camp. I can't imagine. He's an amazing shape. So I think they could be down to their third left tackle. And then I'm just high on the Seattle
Seahawks and Russell Wilson. I mean Russell Wilson since twenty twelve, eighty five sixty nine and six against the spread, and he actually breaks that non conference rule twenty one fifteen and two against the spread, So it's a bet against these Colts injuries and a bet on Seattle.
So this line, I think, Sean, you can reckon move I'm wrong. I think like when it originally opened up, before you know the Wentz injury or anything like that, I think the Colts were favored by two and a half points, so it's gone big with the went injury, which is fine.
I don't understand this one. You're right.
This was my number one as well, and I was talking about it and maybe you can explain it.
Do you have these lines sometimes?
I do, certainly where I look at it and I go, well, this is the public's gotta be all over the Seahawks in this game. I imagine this seems like a spread where they are begging you to take the Seahawks.
Does that ever make you nervous?
Because I agree with everything you said, given the given the injuries to the offensive line, given the Wentz, Wentz is going to play.
That's great.
He's had like no time to get up to speed in this offense or at least have chemistry with any of these receivers, which, by the way, t Y Hilton is out. So it's Michael Pittman Junior, who I love. But no time to get up to speed in this this under a field goal Like, I don't know, does it. Were you ever when it feels like they're begging you to take a line, Oh.
Yeah, definitely, And I think you kind of have to bring it back to what's your handicap and style. Mine is watch all the games, look at the numbers, and break it down from there. There's some people who just bet strictly. Hey, when whenever the public gets up to eighty ninety percent, that's what And there's certainly I do factor that in.
But in this.
Spot, this Seattle team is just too much to pass up. And again, the Colts, to me, were I like fading them on the wind total just because they have such a hard Like you look at their schedule, those first five games they have out of the gate really a brutal and then you throw on the offensive line injury news and that kind of centers around some of my other picks. I love fading a team with offensive line
injury news because you're in the fantasy world. When a star player or the quarterback goes down or is injured, that it's a lot of fantasy news. It's factored into the line. It's factored into the public betting. But one of the places where I still think there is some value is people that don't keep up with the O line injury news and just assume, like, ah, they're throwing whoever out there and left tackle. But that's a huge difference. We saw Wentz last year dealing with the banged up line.
I mean, he looked horrible even when he had time to throw. But the fact that the Eagles started what fourteen different offensive line combinations didn't help Carson Wentz last year. He doesn't have the mobility that he had like in his near MVP season of twenty seventeen, so I think that's really going to be a huge issue for him.
I couldn't agree with this more really, And he's not good. He wasn't good under pressure last year. That It's not like the Seahawks have an amazing pass rush or anything like that. But there'll be enough to get after him given the state of that offensive line.
Yeah, I don't get this one.
And also, I mean we haven't even talked, by the way about the other side of the ball, right, like, other than we love Russell Wilson and he's great, but you know, the Colts have a very good defense, assuming even the Xavier Rhodes is healthy. I mean, their secondary is fine. They match up fine here, except that there are two things. Number One, I think we're gonna see Sean to repeat kind of what we saw last year with the Seahawks, which is they're gonna let us cook early.
Then they're gonna lose a couple of guys. I've said this on the Fantasy podcast. They're gonna lose a few games. Their defense is going to be exhausted because somehow letting Russ cook. They had a couple of three and outs, the defense got exhausted. We've said, Pete Carroll is seventy years old, dude, Like we we know what Pete Carroll is at this point, right, He's gonna be terrified.
It's gonna be all right.
We gotta run the ball, got to control that clock. But for now, I do think they are going to let him cook. And the good thing is the Colts don't blitz a ton seventeen percent of the time last year, and Wilson just carves it up if he has time, man, he's like he's great. I mean he's always great. But when not he had one hundred and made passer rating last year when opposing offenses didn't a defense is didn't blit.
So totally with you.
This is our combined betting pros best bet of the week. We will go with the trap bet. And by the way, this is the only thing I will say about the public versus you know, pros sort of thing.
Fading the public sean.
And by the way, I don't I haven't seen the split, Like right now, I don't. I'm just assuming this is going to be a public play, but I haven't seen necessarily the money that's coming in yet. But it's not always wrong, right, Like it's the books and you know they have like long term sort of views, but any one game, like it's not like feeding the public. It's like, well, if the public reaches this number, you know.
They lose.
Sometimes they win, especially early on when I think books are still struggling with the models, right, So I'm really okay with that.
Definitely in week one especially could be good for the public because there's or some of like myself who comes in with some opinions on the season, on the teams, and yeah, there's some value there for sure.
Yeah, so you're gonna hate this next pick. Okay, I'm not.
I'm gonna lay it out here right now. My guess is you're going to be on the other side of this one and you can be it. And we talked about being a homer. Okay, do you know the team I read for Sean It's not been a pretty existence for me in multiple ways, but especially not my football. I am going to take the Jets here getting five and a half on the road against the Pathers. Here's the deal. Sam Darnold, revenge game. I totally get it.
McCaffrey's back healthy, I get it. I like Terras Marshall, I like the receivers.
I get it. But you just mentioned something about offensive lines, which I feel like you're right. The public is like, we don't really care.
Does anybody out there understand that Carolina has one of the worst offensive lines in the league. And not only that, but then you're just like, oh, by the way, one of our better I guess offensive lineman.
I don't know how you rank them. They're not very good. John Miller. Oh, by the way, you're out with COVID.
So they just lost another offensive lineman in what was already an offensive line that is barely hanging on by a thread. So I guess it's gonna be Dennis Dally. I don't even know it's gonna be terrible. Now, it's not like the Jets have this amazing pass rush. If they had Carl Lawston it i'd feel a lot better about it. Everybody's gonna be on the Panthers on this one, then I completely understand why.
But here's the thing about the Jets. I didn't know how to value.
Zack Wilson when he came on. But like I was, I was very very hesitant. Okay, I don't I don't. I don't dive deep into film in college football. I need to wait to see it here. I had a lot of people who loved him, a lot of people who didn't like him. But I've watched him closely in this preseason and I think I am just fully in on this and it's it's scary, but watching him a couple of things.
Number One, the game speed does not look like too much for him.
Okay, he's got good footwork, he's very poised, he knows how to kind of get it. What means something to me, And maybe this is done, maybe it's narrative. They just came out with the captains. He was voted a team captain by his teammates. Okay, I think you had a very Johnny Manziel possibility here with Zach Wilson, just given sort of you know, his persona, his confidence, stuff like that, it might be there. But for me, I'm encouraged by what I see. I think he's gonna have a big
game here. They don't have tape on him, they don't know what to expect necessarily from what they're going to see.
I think the defense is good enough, and I think Sala can.
Make up for the lack of talent that they necessarily have right now, especially without loss. And so I don't know, man, I think I don't know if they're gonna win, but I think this is a field little game, so I'm gonna go with it. I imagine, like most humans, you think I'm insane, But no.
No, I was going back and forth on this one.
What it came down to me is do I feel comfortable laying five and a half with Sam Darnold and no offensive line? And I just can't come to that.
I'm with you. I'm also high on Zach Wilson.
We had Joe Thaisman on our podcast right around the draft, and he was super high on Zach Wilson. I ended up watching a bunch of BYU during the season, and I'm on board. I have Zach Wilson in Best Ball because I do think they're gonna be Yeah, that's where you can.
Throw a bunch.
And again, you bring in Robert Sala for a reason to get the most out of this defensive.
Talent, and I think they're able to do that.
I do like Carolina, you know this season in fantasy I'm a big Robbie Anderson guy, and you know, have McCaffrey back will certainly help Donald.
But again, just watched Sam.
Darnald last year and then imagine this guy laying five and a half points against any team, Like you can you really feel good about that?
You can't?
Now five and a half again.
I you know, the guy who co hosted Matt Parrel host the Delly Just podcast, he was always like, I don't know, man, between four and five and a half, that's like the dead zone. I feel like the books don't really know what to do with it. I don't know what to do with it, so I stay away and I do get that to me though. Yeah, it is in the realm of possibility that Robbie Anderson has a giant, monstrous game as he and Darnald stick it to the Jets right like, it's totally fine, totally possible.
But I don't know, dude. I think right now, without anybody really knowing what they're gonna see from the Jets, with Elijah Moore getting healthy, Corey Davis has looked fantastic.
I know the running backs aren't.
Awesome or anything like that, but you do have enough depth there. Tivin Coleman is serviceable. Ti Johnson's looked fine. You've got Michael Carter. I don't know if he Ryan's gonna play, but the offensive system with Lafleur, I really do think. And again, the Jets back in the Rex Ryan days had a lot of talent on defense, obviously, but you can make up for not that much talent if you have a really good defensive coach, which I think sala is.
So I think the Jets are gonna come here. I think they're gonna surprise some people.
Again, I'm not predicting the win, although if I take a team under a touchdown, I don't know.
You got you gotta put a little on that money line.
Gotta do and again you predicting that people will be on the Panthers. I think is is a smart way to go. I would hang around. I don't think you have to bet this one early. I think there may be is a chance you get it up to six points if you're just gonna be taking the points.
And one last point. I think the Jets are.
Building their team the right way, Unlike you look at the Giants, who in the first round are drafting Cadarius Tony. You know, Jets are Jets are putting investing draft capital in the offensive line. You got Makai Becton and Elijah Vera Tucker. That's the kind of foundation you want blocking. Uh, you know for a rookie quarterback like Zach Wilson. So and I'm super high on Sala as a coach.
Yeah.
I mean what's interesting is the offensive line really didn't play that well this preseason. But I'm throwing it out like Beck then had a weird preseason. He just cleared concussion protocol, so he should be fine. But they have a lot of talent there.
They did they did it the.
Right way, which they didn't do for poor Sam Darnold, so they didn't invest. I think offensively, I will say it's funny, it might climb, but there are I'm looking again at betting pros consensus lines.
The consensus line is five and a half. The overwhelming majority of books are at five and a half.
But to the extent they're not. They're actually at five. Bed MGM, FanDuel they're at five. So I wait, now, it's it's priced down a little bit. It's like minus one oh four a little bit on the money line. It's one ninety right now consensus for the Jets. So you can get two ten at like DraftKings and stuff like that plus one ninety. So yeah, I'll be sprinkling
on it. But good, all right, gua. I was almost certain everybody's gonna be like, come on your Homer, and if people have listened this podcasts for the last couple of years, I never think that, like I'm not somebody picked the Jets in week one with little tape with some optimism that I'm I'm allowing myself until it all gets smashed. This week.
I'm gonna take him go to bed number two. What do you got?
Okay?
Bet number two another non conference game. This time I'm fading the road team and I'm taking the home team. Give me the Tennessee Titans laying three points against the Arizona Cardinals. This to me is really based on the you know, I like this as a fantasy game as well.
For Tannehill.
If you're looking to put him in some stacks with Julio Jones and AJ Brown, I think it's a good bet. Really, this is just a bet against this Cardinal secondary, which had issues before. Now you throw in the fact that they lost Darquez Denard and then Malcolm Butler randomly retired. They're starting a cornerback Byron Murphy who hasn't played since twenty eighteen. These are the kind of teams I like to go against. I'm not a massive Kyler fan. On the road, I think vrabel is a better coach as well.
I think they have an advantage there. And then Titans. You look at their non conference record twenty seven and sixteen against the spread in conference home games. It's a bit of a travel situation here for the Cardinals as well. So Tennessee only being minus three I think is a really good spot. Hopefully they get a little bit of a pass rush with Bud Dupree. But I think this is just gonna be them outscoring the Cardinals.
So it's interesting because I feel like for me, I don't know necessarily what to expect other than I will say this my second bet. I'll just throw it in here. This was not on my original board. This was a backup in case I knew that Seohn was going to take that Seahawks bet, which I should have figured was the fact that I this is a high total. It's fifty two and a half. I'm still going over. I don't love it absolutely, like I'm not. It's not something
I'm going nuts. It's fifty one and a half right now, as I'm looking at the consensus lines on bet MGM and Party Casino that that is something that I would be more likely to say. It's fifty two at Fox Bet, fifty two at Points Bet, but fifty two and a
half that's up my book DraftKings and total. I'm still going over with it because, correct me, if Verma like this is just going to be I think it's going to be pretty much shootout, Like I really do think, and I think in the best case scenario for Tennessee they get off to a really hot start in the game because they're home fans. By the way, this is something like we're not discussing the fact that there are
going to be fans at these games. And I think right last year it was like, wow, all the scoring. That's because the opposing team would come into these stadiums and they could hear. They could do whatever they want, right, they could audible at the line. No big crowds, no big deal, it doesn't matter. It led itself to offense.
For this, I think, generally speaking, might be a little bit of a lower scoring week than we usually expect, except this game, which I am just basically thinking like they are just going to go back and forth down the field. Neither defense is particularly good. Both offenses are absolutely explosive. But that's the one thing for me, Sean that gives me hesitation. If I have to choose a side,
I would take the Titans minus three. But my worry justice like, are they going to be able to stop the Cardinals or do you just think like their offense essentially is just gonna be so unstopable that you're not even worried about it.
Yeah?
No, I mean I think that you know Titans do have injury concern as well. Again, that's why I put this, That's why I did a lot of a stacking in my millionmaker lineup from this game, because there's the game script could be like you said, the shootout.
I'm with you on the total there as well.
Going over to me ultimately the non conference aspect, the coaching advantage, and I think I'm more confident in Tannehill than Kyler Murray on the road. I know Kyler Murray's claiming he's not gonna scramble as much this year.
He doesn't want to get banged Yeah.
Right.
He kind of had a really good year last year in the first half and then once he got banged up, not quite as good. If he's gonna hold true to that and be a little hesitant to scramble, I think that benefits the Titans, and maybe that maybe that benefits the Cardinals long term and that he stays healthy longer. But I do think in the short term, if he's gonna stay true to his word and not scramble as much, I want the Tennessee action all day.
Yeah.
I look forward to him keeping his word for about half of a first quarter before right I mean, but I look again, I'm not I'm not criticizing the side either. I do think that that's the right side if I'm gonna go one way or the other.
For me, it's much more about the fact that, like what was the Tyson goat, everybody's got a plan until they get punched in the mouth, right, Yeah, that's what I think.
Murray's got a plan, not the scramble and whatever, and that's gonna be all well and good until they're down seventeen points right in the middle of the second quarter, and then he's like, I gotta make stuff happen and everything like that. So I think that might be a long term thing, but I get it. But I do
think the over. I think this is gonna be a shootout, like I you know, value wise sean like if it hits fifty three, if it hits fifty three and a half, Like I know people hear that, and people who aren't like really sophisticated better is they're like, what do you mean, Like you're like really excited, Like you're picking the over on fifty two and a half, you're excited about that.
But if it goes up like half a point or a point.
You're gonna be a little off at yeah that that half a point or a point is monstrous every single time you bet. But for me, I'm with you that it's gonna be high scoring. So I'm going with my second bet again for basically the reason that you said, essentially over fifty two and a half. So we can go back to you now for the third one, and then i'll finish mine out a recap. Then we'll just hit everything that we haven't hit yet.
Awesome.
My third and final pick, I mean, the New England Patriots lay in three against the Dolphins.
Maybe I'm gonna sound like a broken record.
But again, there are serious, you know, injury COVID issues here for the Miami Dolphins. First off Will Fuller is still serving that one game suspension. Now they just lost their left tackle Austin Jackson. He's on the COVID list also.
At Adam Shaheen. I'm not a huge to a backer.
I have to see it from TWOA before I'm really gonna take him on the road in a division game. To last year twenty twenty, he was only six point three yards per attempt, and you know New England won this game last year at home. But really I think the New England defense is going to be revitalized. Of course, getting Donta high tower back, Patrick Chung back from the opt outs and New England coming back to the offensive line quietly one of the better offensive lines in the league.
And again I think that's kind of why they went with mac Jones. They felt confident giving McCorkle the that's actually his real name is mccorkyle. He shortened it to mack new England's offensive line. I think that's why, you know Belichick feels confident starting a rookie, is that he's gonna be able to sit back there. They're gonna give him easy looks. They're gonna pound the rock with Damian Harrison and you know, even Stevenson getting involved in there.
And Miami's defense who eye test.
To me, I always kind of liked them last year, but then when I was doing my off season stuff and really digging deep, they really benefited from a kind of unsustainable turnover differential, and you expect that to kind of regress back to something more reasonable. And you look at their yards per game. They were twenty second in yards per game last year. Their defense at twenty one or sorry, two fifty one and a half. But really, the Miami rush defense on the road led up hundred
and thirty two yards per game. I think the Patriots are gonna pound the rock and then set up some easy play action for mac Jones and they're gonna get this w So minus three, I'm all in.
Yeah.
So the total on this game, which is understandable, it's one of the lowest totals on the board, if not the single lowest total is forty three and a half.
Okay, so this is gonna be a low score.
Oh no, it's forty two at the Broncos Giants, which is more understandable frankly, but forty three and a half with our consensus line over here. So this strikes me as a as a as a close game that's gonna be decided within a field goal, which is why I don't really love it either way, do you. I mean, this is a rookie, man, a rookie was named the
starter like a week ago, making his first start. I get that he's something against the team that was again, you're right, they weren't as good as they played last year. To have struggled a lot last year they're down Will Fuller.
I think we're gonna see like better. I think we're gonna see a big jump here from two as he gets further away from the hip injury that's sort of limited last year, and just more comfortable with him understanding you got to throw into coverage sometimes to make it happen.
So long term for the season, I am on to it.
I do think that the Pats defense because I think people are like, well, Gilmore's out, blah blah. But I think you're right. I think they're underrated at this point. But I don't know, man, I don't feel that confident. I don't think either size or right. So this would be a total stay away for me. Well for me, I'm surprised you trust Mac Jones.
Well, I trust Mac Jones because he's not I mean, this guy has played in some big games in Alabama. Normally a rookie making his debut in the NFL is going to be one of the biggest games he's ever played.
Not for Mac Jones.
And you again, you talk about the fan base getting back, it does seem like Bill Belichick is just itching to get some early ws to kind of counterbalance the narrative. That Brady was really the guy and not him. You know, he's just itching to do whatever it takes to get into the playoffs. And then the final answer or final reason why I feel comfortable with it is Bill Belichick versus a former coach now Flores, I think is the outlier as far as like belichick disciples, who I think
are good coaches and have had success. But if this game was in Miami, I'd be all over the Dolphins because the Patriots usually struggle down there. But early in the season, at home, friendly crowd and the you know, the Dolphins left tackle being out, don't sleep on this Patriots pass rush. I think they could get to Tua and really make things interesting for him.
All right, well, I'm gonna stay away, I'm gonna watch it. I'll be rooting for you on the sidelines as well, my entire crazy Patriots loving family. Okay, my final one, I'm going to a total here.
Okay.
I actually find the spreads, especially early on, Man, I think the lines aren't that net Like, They're not as sharp obviously as they're gonna be in a few weeks when the books start getting more and more data, of course, But I still find it really tough because I really feel uncertain about what we're gonna see. I am going to a total though. It's your team. Good Sarah, it's your team. I don't know how I feel about the game and the spread, but I do like the total.
I'm a little surprised that the Eagles and Falcons are only at forty. I mean, that's not a low total or anything like that, but I kind of thought it would be higher. I'm going over here with the consensus line at forty eight. There is a forty eight and a half out there at fandle, but forty eight is the consensus. I think we kind of throw out what we saw last year from Hurtz just generally as the quarterback. They've been able to design the offense around him for
out this entire offseason. All the rumors aside with the Shawn Watson like, they've known in my opinion, that Hurts is going to be the guy. They have better pass catches with the vamp, the Smith zach Ertz is fully healthy. Bigger has now looked good after like all those rumors in the early part. The offensive line is obviously better. Hurts can scramble. That's going to extend drives and I think allow them to put up some points, especially if they fall behind.
Which I kind of expect them to a little bit.
Sean like Howe was thinking of the Titans and the Cardinals, where it's like the Titans get out to a big lead. I just think like Murray might just start running wild and create some plays and put up some points. I could see the same thing here with Hurts, because again with the Falcons, I think.
They're not gonna be a very good team. Their defenses are very good.
But I do think that even though Arthur Smith doesn't run and gun, I think what he does do a ton is play action. Tennessee was the you know, had the most play action percentage in their offense of any team last year. He's going to bring that to Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan is That's just good for an offense anyway. It's going to make them more effective. But it's particularly good for Matt Ryan. When he was with Shanahan, obviously a lot of motion, a lot of play action, he
had his best year of his career. I expect him to actually be pretty solid. And again I mentioned this earlier. Unders I think as a general matter, are the better bet in Week one, because I do think it's going to be a little crazy for these road teams to come on and be like, holy cow, fans are screaming at me, But I don't know, man, at forty eight, I think this is going to be a lot of points being put up here. So I'm gonna take the over.
Yeah, I'm I'm one hundred percent on board. I'm usually not like a massive total player, but when these Week one lines came out and we broke, we immediately broke him down and kind of gave our instant reaction. This total opening up at this price was just to me comically.
Low is a guy who the team.
I mean, on the Eagles offensive side of the ball, they're O line, all the starters are healthy. He's gonna have plenty of time to throw. They're gonna drop some simple, easy stuff for him. I think they're gonna be able to move the ball against Atlanta. Now flip it over to the other side. What did the Eagles struggle with? Well, they have a pretty decent defensive line, but really the back end is where there are the most questions. They have a new scheme coming in Calvin Ridley. I am
high on him Fantasy even Week one. You know, Sligh is like a solid cornerback one, but he struggled. We've seen DeVante Adams, We've seen DK Metcalf have big games against him. And lastly, we really struggled last year against the tight end. I mean George Kittle had a massive game against US and Kyle Pitts.
You know Rodney McLeod one of the safeties.
He's coming off a pretty rough injury, didn't have much of a preseason or a training camp.
He should start.
They brought over Anthony Harris, but again it's new team, new defense. I could see them struggling. This to me, just again has shoot out written all over it. And I think you know dark Horse DFS play that I've just been crowbaring on every podcast is Quez Watkins at three thousand dollars. If you're looking to put together a million maker lineup in DraftKings, you could do worse than Quez Watkins. We saw him break one in the preseason with the screen pass to Joe Flacco. Hurts almost got
him on a deep ball that he was opened. They were just like a half second off. I think I can I can tell you this for a guy that is priced at DraftKings at three thousand dollars.
I can guarantee you.
He gets like six targets, so I think he's gonna be involved in the offense, has a chance to break it.
And and same with Miles Sanders.
He didn't have an amazing year last year and certainly underperformed his Round one drafting and probably annoyed a lot of fantasy owners. But he he certainly has the ability to, you know, break open a big seventy five eighty yard run. So I think there's huge potential for big plays on both sides of the ball. So I'm all over the O.
We're with you here.
Yeah, that's I mean, I'm not going to touch the side. We'll talk about that in two minutes about how you feel about the side. But yeah, there's gonna be points here. I feel pretty confident that. So that is one of my favorites. So let's just very quickly recap. I'll do it again at the very end.
Of the podcast.
You like we both club the bet of the podcast, Sean is Seattle laying two and a half to the Colts. You also like the Titans laying three to the Cardinals and the Pats laying three to the Dolphins, right, got that?
Yeap?
That was what it was? Yes, good. I wanted to make sure I didn't miss it.
I was just double checking that I didn't mess up something.
But yes, no, I want to make sure and all favorites, all favorites for you.
You're getting a little uh, a.
Little square sean over here.
I don't mind taking favorites, you know, kind of under under three to me is almost you know, when you're where you're taking a favorite under three in the NFL. I'm not too worried about it. I do have some some dogs. I like that we're going to rattle through here on the card.
But yeah, wonderful.
Small favorites early on the season. I'm on board, all right.
So my three best bets are, of course, the Jets. Never go wrong lying or rooting for the Jets, trust me getting five and a half from the Panthers, the Titans and the Cardinals over fifty two and a half points, and the Eagles and the Falcons over forty eight points. So again, I will recap that once more at the very end of the podcast, so everybody gets them. But those are the official Betting Pros Podcast six best bets of the week.
I love it again. You can hear more. We're gonna break down every game.
We're gonna break on props on the Betting Pros YouTube channel YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros from eleven am Eastern to twelve pm on that channel, Meet and Matt Pelt. All right, let's run through Sean all the spreads and just let me know you have a lean on one side or is it a stay away for you? And again this is coming out this is Wednesday, so we can talk about the Thursday game. The spread on the Bucks Cowboys game is now eight. Do you like either side on that game?
Yeah? I mean I'm I'm all in on the Bucks again.
Super Bowl winner coming off the Super Bowl at home, though very good against the spread. I think it's like five and one, six and one. I got it when it opened at six. I still like it at eight. Deck is not one hundred percent healthy, and they got issues on their offensive line as well with Zach Martinel, So give me the Bucks.
I mean, you talk about offensive line issues, that's an offensive line issue, right, That's their best offensive lineman being out, and I remember Mel Collins is going to play but he's not one hundred percent either, so you know that offensive line really takes a hit.
I agree with you.
I will take the Bucks minus eight A lean that way anyway, but I will say that I do get a little worried, like it might be like party time, you know, celebrating the Super Bowl and then the Cowboys get a backdoor cover here. But I agree with you that is where I would go. I still feel confident at eight. How about again, we talked about the over under. What about the Falcons laying three to your Eagles at home?
Yeah, I mean certainly I liked it better when it was three and a half, which I think yesterday was three and a half.
I still like it.
I've got no oh wait, I've got a couple of three and a half.
There's Caesars. Caesars are still three and a half. There are a couple three and a half's out there actually.
So you can get those three and a half. I think you do it again. I think this Eagles team is gonna surprise some people. And again, our offensive line defensive line have a chance to be top five both in So I'm taking the points with the Eagles.
All right.
I am staying away three and a half. You're right, I would be more intrigued by that. And again I'm looking the consensus line is three. The overwhelming majority of books are at three, but there are three and a half's out there for sure. So again that's why it's always good just to check your sports book make sure you get the best lines. I wouldn't mind the Eagles at minus at plus three and a half, but otherwise
I'm really not touching it. What about the Lions at home getting seven and a half from the forty nine ers.
Yeah, I mean this is this is one of those games that everyone is gonna pick the forty nine ers in their survivor pool. And then that's why that reason alone I like the Lions. The Jimmy g is a seven and a half point road favorite to me is just too crazy.
I think I think you got to take the lines in the points.
Yeah, I'm not going anywhere near this because you know, even if even if it looks like the fortnit are going to run with it, I'm worried Dan Campbell's just gonna run out there and smack them in the kneecaffs or something like that. It sounded crazy, Yeah, I think I think that you laid it out correctly, which is the value is actually on the Lions here at seven and a half, because you have Jimmy Croppolo as.
A starting quarterback on the road.
There's just no way I'm going to dabble in it, like I'm just staying completely away from it. But I do think that that is where the value the game everybody has been talking about for I mean weeks. At this point, the only thing everybody wants to watch this weekend is, of course, the Texans hosting the Jaguars laying three points.
What are you doing with this? If anything?
Well, Tyrod Taylor as a starter twenty four, twenty one and one, the Jags were a one win team. Now you have a rookie quarterback and rookie head coach going on the road as a road division favorite.
I think on principle alone, you have to take the Texans.
That is the correct answer.
That's something that I say at Tom the Fantasy of podcasts a lot where they tease me, yes, I agree with you, it's disgusting.
It's disgusting.
But the value is very clearly on the Texans here. We have not seen very much from the Jaguars right now and everything. Given the situation, that suggests that they're going to be able to, you know, have a big time performance here. I don't mind the over by the way, again, another thing where I was like under, under, under, and then I'm like, oh, what about all these over is the forty four and a half points, that's pretty low. I do think both sides will be able to put
up some points here. But yeah, you're right, Toron Taylor, he's fine. Brandon Cooks is going to get his They have like seventeen thousand crappy running backs.
They'll be able to move the ball. So we'll see.
They did just trade out Bradley Roby, but no, begaint, we're not gonna talk about that.
They talked about it. The Texans have some issues that they.
Have one or two issues. They will be the worst team in the league. But you know what, the Jaguars were the worst team in the league last year.
That's a great example.
That Jags Colts game, and I had the Jags and the Lions game and the Texans game both kind of look like similar to me, similar situations.
Yeah, fun fact, by the way, that reminds me about the Colts as we like. The Sea Houxley Colts have not won an opener since twenty.
Thirteen, so that I'm gonna steal that nugget, do it all right?
The Chargers getting one and a half in Washington?
Who do you like now?
This game is I think quietly one of the better games on the board. And you could talk me into either side here pretty easily.
I think early lean.
Here would have to be the Washington football team just because they're at home and it's a crazy flight for a new coach.
But yeah, I mean this should be a hell of a game.
Yeah, I'm with you.
I mean I thought about taking Washington plus one here as the home dog as one of my picks.
I do like it.
It's one of the spreads that I like a little bit more. Agan Washington is going to surprise some people. It came out a little earlier now. Doesn't sound like Curtis Samuel necessarily is going to play. He was trending up, but sounds like a little bit. It doesn't do that much for me. I think Antonio Gibson's going to be a monster. I love Logan Thomas, Course, Terry McLaurin, and Fitzpatrick. There's always the chance that Fitzpatrick Fitzpatrick's and it goes terribly sideways.
Yeah, I'm with you.
I think Fitzpatrick game one this is where you're like, yeah, the Washington football team, they're gonna win the division. And we actually had the one of the directors from win Bett and they said their biggest MVP liability was Ryan Fitzpatrick, which I had to laugh at.
I don't think. I don't think Fitzpatrick lasts this long.
Like there's a reason he's been in this league for how many years and he only has one winning season, starting all sixteen games. I think he eventually hits that fitzmagic wall and we'll see. Maybe Heinike can kind of carry them, but I think Game one is probably his spot.
So yeah, lean in a WFTS for sure.
And again we didn't even harp on the fact that Washington has one of the better defenses in the league anyway, right, And again the charge the Chargers are changing their system. You know, I know Herbert was great last year, but it was a it was a very you know, kind of rookie friendly offensive system. It's a little more complicated what they're doing right now. He could definitely struggle early. So I think there is value on Washington here, you know.
Yeah, and they didn't they didn't play any of their starters in the preseason. Now you got this crazy road trip. I think they could start a little slow.
Look at us, we're talking ourselves right into Washington.
My eyes, new best bet replaces the Seahawks absolutely.
Bill's lank six and a half at home to the Steelers.
This is another one.
I've kind of been going back and forth on the TJ. Watt news to me is big. You know, I was refreshing Twitter right before we got on the show.
Here.
He did practice today, didn't he? I thought I saw that.
It seems like he's it seems like he's gonna play. But just the fact that it's a little up in the air scares me a little bit. I am high on the Bills overall this season, but I liked I liked what I saw on a big ben, you know, slim down. I think again, you want to talk about dark horse dfs plays that are super cheap.
Pat Fryarmouth, the Bills struggle with the tight end.
I'm high on him this season, so I would take the I would take the Steelers in the points.
I don't think they're that bad this year.
Yeah.
By the way, you've mentioned DFS a couple of times. I will just I'll tease everybody should just google Sean Green and DFS, and yes you will. You would like to take his advice. That's all I'm going to say. Okay, I am with you, but I think there is value on the Steeler. I'm not going near it. I'm just not because I think the Bills could be absolutely monstrous right now. Sorry, if you can hear that, that's my garage are always open during a podcast.
I will take the Bills. I think the Bills could be explosive, but I will take the Steelers if I have to choose a side. I'm really staying away from it.
How about the Vikings laying three and a half to the Bengals in Cincinnati.
Yeah, again, this is one where it's like way too obvious and it kind of scares you because why, in my mind, why who's taking the Bengals there? I think the Bengals are getting a lot of kind of fantasy hype because they're expected to throw the ball a ton and you have Joe Burrow paired up with Jamar Chase, Chase kind of had a down preseason. We'll see if that actually matters to me. It seems like Joe Burrow doesn't trust his knee yet. And if Joe Burrow doesn't
trust his knee, I'm not gonna trust his knee. I'm gonna take Kirk Cousins here. It's not in prime time. I think they get the job done.
There are a few threes out there which I obviously like better for the push potential, such as points bet and stuff like that, but still I agree with you. I will take the Vikings I talked about in fantasy the whole year. I think it's gonna be a little bit of a slow start here for Burrow as he just gets more mentally acclimated to the NFL again after the injury. I think Jamar Chase, after taking euro of from football, is gonna get off to a little bit of a slow start. So I could see the Vikings
winning handly here. So I lean Vikings plus my three and a half as well. We already talked about the justs Panthers. You love that bat, you fully support it. So let's go to the Saints getting the Packers, sorry, the Packers laying four and a half to the Saints in New Orleans. It's not in New Orleans, it's gonna be in Florida. But obviously it's a home game for the Saint so Packers laying for.
Yeah, man, this is this one is on my list of like really Been Heaven and Hawn As far as figuring out the best to angle again, Aaron Rodgers has struggled in Florida and that's kind of why. The reason according to reports, that's why the Saints picked it is because he hasn't played right down in Florida and early in September. If there is someone that has experienced playing in that Florida heat in September, it's a guy like
Jameis Winston. But again, then then you have the Saints Dome team going outside, and then are you really going to take Jamis over Aaron Rodgers?
That feels a bit crazy as well.
I think this could be a My lean would be the over here on this one, But I gone to my I would just take the points.
Yeah, I am probably just staying away from it, like I don't.
I can easily make the case.
For the Packers in this game because I think that you get out of the Superdome. That's a pretty big move like there to go, even if it's Florida, you know where he purportedly struggles. The over under, by the way, consensus is fifty points, so I'm staying away from it. But if I had to go one way, I'd probably go the other way, and I'd probably go with the favorite, which is weird for us since you love all the favorites.
All right, let's get to the next game, and that is we did that one. We did that one. Sorry.
How about the Broncos laying three to the Giants in New Jersey?
Oh yeah, and again this one.
I've been kind of keeping an eye on the injury news slash arrest news with Bradley Chubb, who you know. It seemed on Tuesday he was gonna play at him and fant and now it seems like he's closer to not playing, but Fans is still gonna play.
To me, Fenton.
The match that I just can't unsee or unthink about is the Broncos pass rush against the Giants. I mean, I'm not high on Daniel Jones or their offensive line. I mean, their offensive line was really bad last year. It feels like they didn't do anything to seriously address it. He turns the ball over all the time, and you have Bridgewater on the other side, who plays a really clean game.
So I'll take the Broncos absolutely correct. I completely agree with you. I think the Giants are going to be in big trouble in this game. Especially Saquan is in one hundred percent. Galladay is not one hundred percent. That offensive line is terrible. And by the way, the consensus line is three. That's where it is at most books bet, MGM, and fandle it's minus two and a half.
Oh, get all over, get all over that. If you're in there. Brown's visiting the Chiefs. The Chiefs are six point favorites. What do you think?
Yeah, this one again kind of keeping a chalky. I know everyone's high on the Browns, think they can make a run. But Andy Reid opening day, Yes, Andy Reid, I think he's nineteen to zher last nineteen games straight up up in September, you got Patrick Mahomes not laying more than double digits, and big picture, I do think the Chiefs kind of fixed their offensive line, which was a huge issue for them.
They got some work in the preseason.
He played his starters. I think they're looking pretty good, and you know, the Browns defense is solid, and obviously Hian Miles, Garrett and some of the other guys they got. But I think this is a statement game for the Chiefs after that Super Bowl loss.
Entirely with you, and I like the Browns this year a lot.
I'm totally buying them, absolutely, But you're gonna give me Patrick Mahomes in this game after that Super Bowl with Andy Reid in September at under a touchdown, I'm definitely taking it. In fact, I really should have pivoted to that game right after the death.
But it's fine.
I'll take a bunch of over dyers, all right, Rams at home lank seven and a half to the Bears.
Yeah, I'm taking the I'm taking the points here.
I know people are worried about the Bears, their offensive line. I still think fantasy wise, I do like David Montgomery. I think he keeps them in the game enough. And again, it's you know, Stafford, new system, new head coach. Maybe there's a couple things they got to work out there. You could apply the same thing to the Bears. But
it's it's Week one, Sunday night, Football National TV. I think there's gonna be a ton of Bears fans there, so I think they get up for this game enough to keep it within seven.
Yeah. I'm on the other side.
I think if I have to go, I look, I just I fear for Andy Dalton and what it things are gonna look like.
In my head, it's justin Field's I get it.
So you're right, Andy Dalton in prime time probably a good reason to fade.
The number just seems a hair hut.
I get it. The number.
The number is correct, I think because it is something you're over a touchdowns really tough. But for me, I love Matthew Stafford. I'm very high in the Rams as most people are this year. I love that defense. I fear for Andy Dalton, so I'm willing to bite the ball a little bit and lay the points. Final game, the Raiders getting four and a half from the Ravens in Las Vegas.
Yeah, this is another one.
It's hard to go against a Monday night home dog opening up the stadium, So I you know, I'm really going back and forth year on this one.
I would my.
Lean would be right now of Raiders, but I could change my mind by Monday. This one's tough because you know, the Baltimore offense has had so many issues, injuries, everything. But then you're really going to back this Raiders team which has had to you know, weird offseason as well. I got, you know, all things being equal, I think you should take a Monday night football home dog at four and a half.
But I'm not a huge Gruden or Raiders fan.
Yeah, I'm staying away, but if forced to go one way, I actually would go with the Raiders because I think that place is gonna be nuts, and I don't think that everybody else is.
Ready for it.
Also, frankly, I mean, what if Baltimore the Ravens going to spend a couple of days in Vegas right leading up to it at whenever they travel out there. That's my mess with you a little bit. So yeah, right, all right, So we've got a couple of things. Let's just very briefly again recapt the official plays. You've got the Seahawks lank two and a half against the Colts, the Titans length three to the Cardinals, and the Pats
length three to the Dolphins. I am taking the Cardinals and the Titans over fifty two and a half the Falcons and the Eagles over forty eight and the Jets length five and a half to the Panthers. If you want to sub out one of my over unders because you're like I don't accept over unders as a pick, that's fine. My other one would be the Chiefs lank six to the Browns. I could also be convinced to take the Washington football team laying one to the Chargers.
Sean, this was great. I love kicking off.
I loved it.
I loved it. Remind everybody where they can find all of you in your work and all.
The good stuff.
Oh yeah, Sports Gambling Podcast. We actually just our network as GPN. We launched an app, so that's the easiest way to get all our picks podcasts.
It's all for free. We're doing a contest. It's free to enter.
You have a chance to win one hundred thousand dollars NFL Week one. You have to pick a bunch of things correct, so it's a it's a long shot, but again it's free. The podcast free, the picks are free, So SGPN in the app Store, Google Play Store, give us a fall on Twitter at Gambling Podcast and yeah, let it ride let's go baby.
Week one.
It feels like going back to school if school was being a degenerate sports gambler.
It is last, especially after last year where it was just this weird kind of thing, you know.
Now it's just it's all gravy. It's all wonderful, all right. I really appreciate it coming on.
And you guys, by the way, you should be following Sean. You should be following the Sports Gambling Network podcast. They're hilarious, by the way. It's not only just entertaining, they give great advice. So really, I appreciate you coming on.
We will have you.
Back for sure.
We will exchange picks beforehand so that we don't have to worry about me randomly.
I'm gonna I'm gonna.
Put in a parlay of our official five, so we'll see maybe I come back and yeah, we'll see how that goes.
I'm in. I'm in, all right.
So again, we'll be back here on Monday, giving us an early look in the lines. The meantime, enjoy your Week one football, everybody, and we will catch it next week.