Hey there, everybody. Welcome to the final edition of the twenty twenty I Guess Season NFL Season of the Betting Brothers NFL Podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris with me is Matt Parol. Find us on Twitter at Dan Harris Ady and at Sports Talk Matt Matt. This is it super Bowl props. It's exciting. Are you ready?
Yeah? I'm a little sad.
Oh man, that was so depressing. I was thought it was gonna be like, yeah, let's go.
Now, I'm ready. But it's still I mean, there's a couple of things. One, it's the end of the football season, so there's no more football for a long time. So that's a bummer. I'm excited because it's a heck of a game. I'm a little bummed because no matter how much they're trying to spin this like it's a super Bowl, Yeah, not a super Bowl. Okay, this is not a super Bowl. Budweiser is not even advertising in this game. All right, this is not a typical year. We got twenty thousand
fans in Tampa, no radio row, no hype. I mean, the Chiefs are showing up on Friday for this game, for goodness sakes, and the barber for the Chiefs had covid nineteen nearly took down the entire team. For goodness sakes, this is just not a typical season. So while I'm really excited to get to go with football, I'm bummed the year is over. And I'm equally like, man, this is not gonna be the same thing as normal.
I think it's so funny, but I feel like, maybe you're right, and maybe that's how everybody feels. I don't really feel that way, like, of course it's different, but I feel like, probably because you've been doing radio for your entire adult life, like you can really tangibly feel the difference, right, and not for me, like, of course I get it. Of course it's weird and it's not the same. But I don't find my enthusiasm for this game dimmed whatsoever, even though it's not like the classic
usual way we're doing it. It might just because you're radio, or it might be because I'm an odd human being. I don't know the answer to it, but regardless, well, yeah, you to your point.
I mean, so normally, in the week of the Super Bowl, there are every every A, B and C list celebrities trying to get on the radio, trying to get on your radio show, trying to talk right. So, like, the biggest name I've had on so far is Barry Sanders. Now that's a great, big Hall of Fame football name, right right, But normally during football week there's a Barry Sanders every day.
I get it.
I get So that's the weirdness about it that we're like, where is everyone Like, no brand wants their name really out there too enthusiastically, nobody wants to do any of the stunts of the stupid stuff they always do. So it's just different.
Yeah, No, I do get it. And for me, I've got the Chiefs and a Bucks game and we're at the Super Bowl, which I really if I were a betting man, which obviously I am, I probably would have later bet that we would not have made it to this point because, you know, kudos to them and continue to dodge, you know, the landmines with the barber and all that, keep going until we get the Sunday. All right,
So we've got a few things to talk about. Number One, Matt and I are mostly going to be talking about prop bets, although Matt, if it's okay to start by talking about the side in the total. We talked about it last week, but okay, good, so we'll talk about that, see where it has ended up, and then see if
we like either side of it. But we are going to be talking about a lot of player props today, but we are also going to be talking about player props on Sunday before the Super Bowl at four thirty pm Eastern on our YouTube channel YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros. We are also going to be simulcasting I guess it's the right term for it on our Betting Pros Twitter account, which is at Betting Pros NFL. I believe, yeah, look at us. We may also I think we're probably going to also simonich.
I was not doing that every every weekend, you.
Know, we try to save it for the special time. But you're right, that was my bad. Now on we should have been doing that for sure next year, don't worry. But for the for the we also may be doing it on our Fantasy Pros YouTube account, YouTube dot com. It's a big one. But because as you know, we have a giant giveaway that we are going to be doing on that live stream. At the very least we know it's going to be an autographed helmet from a former NFL MVP and Super Bowl winner. It's a big one.
We're gonna have fun. We're gonna be doing player props all the time, even though we are also doing them here. Some of them will probably overlap, but not all of them. That is sponsored by win bet, and we're gonna be using their odds for it. So again, go check them out and make sure you don't miss at four thirty Eastern YouTube dot com slash betting pro So let's talk first about the game here, Matt, that we'll get into some player props. So when we originally did it, I
actually can't remember. I should have gone back and listened to it. I don't remember if it was at three or three and a half the consensus lines. I know it was.
It was a pingpong, but a different book at different prices.
Okay, so for the most part, it's now settled at three. There is bet MGM out there which is at three and a half, but our consensus line is three. Even at DraftKings, by the way, which was holding at three and a half, which we had talked about, it was there for a while. It dropped today actually it's dropped to three, back up to three and a half.
And then you know why betmgym's at three At three and a half though, right, why two point three million dollar bet on Chiefs? Sorry? On one? And a lot of it was on the bucks, right or the Chiefs? Wait, I'm forgetting which one it was on. I thought that was on the It was on the bucks, right, three point two point three million on the chief it was. Yeah, there was two point three on the Chiefs, right? Minus three?
Well, I would assume if I mean, the reason would hold that it would be at three point five because they want money on the bucks. So you assume it came in on the Chiefs, right. I have to look at this all right, now, this is just it was.
Oh no, it's on Tampa. I'm wrong, okay, all right, it's at BETMGM though, So I was right about that. It's at BETMGM, but it was on Tampa. So why are they at three point five? Well? Why are they at three and a half?
I don't know.
That's wet there. I forget they'd be at three.
It's juiced up a little bit. I mean it's at minus one fifteen and it's minus one oh five to take the Chiefs at minus three and a half. And again I'm looking at all of this just so you guys know, I'm on bettingpros dot Com. I just go to NFL and odds and I look at it and it pops up. It's against the spread, and it shows me the consensus odds for betting pros do com and it shows me at all the various sports books. So again I'm in New Hampshire. As I mentioned, I played DraftKings.
It shows me right now the odds of DraftKings are taking the Chiefs laying three. You want to take the trees, it's minus one fifteen. You want to take the Bucks it's minus one oh six. And you see all these books William Hill two and then one. Only one on our list right now he's currently at minus three and a half and that is bet MGM that So I don't know, maybe they're comfortable, maybe they want more money on the bucks. I don't know.
I have to look this up. I wonder if it's bet MGM New Jersey or be BETMGM Vegas as well, because they split their two. They've got non Nevada in Nevada. People don't they're at three and a half here in Vegas two. Wow, it's just.
Minus one incorrect yep, wow.
In the same lines at both Okay.
Yeah, that's all right.
With their viability, that's stunning. I have to go where we're done here. You know where I'm going. Yeah, I'm going to go to be MGM.
I understand you are, You're going to take it right there. Now, the total when we first did it, I remember, was at fifty seven and a half one point whatever. Now the consensus line is at fifty six. There's fifty five and a half over a fandle there's a fifty six and a half at bet MGM. But for the most part, the books draftings William Hill all points BET. They're all at fifty six now for the total. So that has come down as we expected, I mean, I think right,
So all right, how do you feel, Matt? Do you have a lead? I mean at three and a half, it sounds like you like the bucks and you're gonna run and take them if you can.
Okay, So let me just explain this, bet, okay, because this is not done really with logic that this is done because I am oh and three and I refuse to go oh and four betting against Tom Brady in the playoffs. So if I back Brady and he wins, great. If I back Brady and he loses, which I think is what's gonna happen, I think it's I'm gonna be
okay with it. I'm okay going down with Brady and Gronk and that team over and not backing the Chiefs, even though I think I'm doing you all a solid by betting the Bucks because that means the Chiefs winning. Chiefs cover. So, given how bad I have been in the postseason, I'm going to take one for the betting pro team, and you guys all bet the Chiefs. I'll bet the Bucks. I'll be wrong, and you will cash.
This is a very scientific analysis that Matt is doing right now. He is fading himself basically, is what he wants you to do. So I waited, Matt, and when we talked about it, originally I said I didn't.
I didn't.
First of all, I have a very small wager on the side on this because this is a day for props. Okay, this is not really a day to go huge on the spread.
It's just I'm betting a quarter unit by the way, yeah, exactly, just an idea where I'm betting. This is not I'm design a bet. It's a quarter, right.
I bet a half a unit on the Chiefs layingth three when it came down to DraftKings. Really, I wasn't convinced that it was going to get there because we talked about him. It was at three and a half, but I decided to do it when I had three. Now it's kind of settled at three, so I didn't have to rush to do it, and I think I probably got it at like minus one sixteen instead of minus one fifteen. But that's fine. But I'm fine with the Chiefs leangth three. I do think the Chiefs are
going to win this game. I could see them dominating this game, especially after the way we saw them dismantle the Bills and everything like that. But in the end, it's not something I'm going heavy on. I do like them laying three. I would take them if it was three and a half. I just stay away because you know, it's my expectation is that it's gonna be a one
score game. I just don't know whether or not that score is going to be within seven or in three, But I do think the Chiefs are gonna win, which is why I'd be fine too. If you want to do the money line, I'd than that Draftings is also the lowest money line. It's minus one sixty two. The consensus is minus one sixty five, so I'd be fine with that. I'm going to be very surprised if the Bucks find a way to win this game. What about the total, Matt, Do you like it on the over
now that it's come down to fifty six? Are still too high for you?
No? I like the under. I think it's under play, Okay, I think. I mean it's a lot of points. I mean I think I don't like it at fifty six. I want to over fifty six. That's why I'm going to take it before potentially it hits fifty six. I think the more money I think money's coming in on the under, I think people are going to start to I think even the public mind start to get on the under. But I'll explain why like the under. It
correlates with one of my props that I like. I just I think this is going to be a slower starting game than what we saw. Everyone thinks it's going to be like Week twelve, and I think Week twelve is really screwing the people's minds.
Yeah, no, I think that that's fair. Again, you're running to bet MGM after this because BETMGM is at fifty six and a half. That's the only book I'm seeing right now, Yeah, at fifty six and a half. So after this, you're running to place your bet on the Bucks, and you're running to place your bet on the under the fifty six and a half. I don't have a strong feel on it. I lean towards the over, but it's so public and everything like that. I do think there is going to be scoring in this game. But
you know, again, you have two relatively strong defenses. I am a little concerned about what the loss of Eric Fisher is gonna do because I think the Bucks are going to get pressure on Mahomes. Does that slow them down a little bit? But I'm really staying away from the side. If I'm forced to choose, I'd probably go over fifty six, but I'm not really getting it very close.
So let's go to some player props. So before we get into it, if you want to see the list of player props, I told you can see the consensus game lines, the spread, the over under. You can do the same with player props. You can see the various odds that are available at the various books and they vary like this is a time where if you have, you know, the option to bet at multiple sports books, this is a time where you can really take advantage
of the differences in some sports books. Go to Bettingpros dot com slash prop bets. That's going to show you basically all the list of player props that are available. That's what I'm looking at right now. We also have, as we've mentioned before on this show and a Matt has mentioned on its live streaming on The Daily Juice, the prop bet cheat cheat creator that's going to give you the best available props based on Betting Pros projections,
based on the available thing lines in the market. It will show you the best line that you can get out there. It will also show you specifically if you want just available in your state. Again, bettingpros dot Com slash props for that. And again, as we've said, this is a prop bet game. That's where you want to be doing on this game instead of going to the side or the total. So with that, Matt, let's start with some props. Go ahead, you can kick us off. What do you like coming into this game?
Do you want player props first, or do you want one quarter? Or do anything that you want to do, Matt, Okay, let's start with the first quarter.
Okay.
Historically speaking, Tom Brady, even go through the games with Tom Brady, he has not scored a touchdown. I think it's in the maybe ever, he's never scored a first quarter touchdown in the super Bowl. I think that's right. I think that's right. And so the Patriots, as being a Patriot fan that I know, I've made money on this. When Brady's in the in the super Bowl, they don't score in the first quarter.
All right? Why, by the way, Matt.
Because defenses come out roaring in the first quarter. It's the Super Bowl. Every play, every tackle, every single step is put with force and purpose. They know where they're going, they've seen the plays, they've studied it, they're coached up. These coaches have everything that they need. They've not seen. You can't run anything on these guys they haven't seen before. So I think defenses are way ahead of the offenses
early until they get tired. So early. I think there's a real chance you see a seven to three first quarter. So the numbers ten and a half, Okay, find ten and a half. Shop around. It's out there. First quarter under ten and a half. It is eight and one over the last nine Super Bowls.
Eight and one under ten and a half in the last nine Super Bowls.
Uh huh.
Yeah, well I'm looking. So I'm looking at DraftKings right now. I don't think that's listed on the on the on the game spreads, which, by the way, if you go to the page either the player props or the game lines, you can also look at game props and all that, and yeah it is. It is just Matt under ten and a half points minus one fifty over ten and a half plus one ten.
That's too bad. Yeah, like that's not bad. Yeah, that's one fifty. That's not bad at all. Take that BA all day. Yeah, that's not bad at all.
No, I do good.
Sorry, I just I just think that this is going to be a different game than the first time around.
Yes, yeah, so you also think the Chiefs are going to start a little slo.
I yeah, I look. Historically speaking, Patrick Mahomes' best quarter is the second quarter. Yeah, I think he's the best scoring second quarter quarterback in the NFL. So I think they score a touchdown. I mean, I think they'll have two drives probably in the first quarter. They probably get seven out of it. But I think the offense for the Bucks will not score a touchdown in the first quarter. That's run banking on. So first quarter under ten and a half is my first play.
Okay, So you know, obviously we're doing Betting pros. We also have Fantasy Pros, and one of the things we did on Fantasy Pros is a couple of the riders. They basically said, Okay, how do you feel about the spread? What do you think the final score is going to be? How do you see this game unfolding? And I basically wrote exactly that, Matt, which is, I see this game
getting off to a slow start. I think that it's going to be a close game heading into you know, probably almost maybe the end of the second quarter, and then eventually you're going to have, maybe in the third quarter, you're going to have one of these three touchdowns over the course of ten minutes with Mahomes or something going
crazy and stuff like that. I agree with you, though, I think it's going to It's a great stat about how slow it starts, and I think that that's that's how I see it coming going this game as well. So I like that. So I'm going to go to a player props. I mostly stuck with player props because I do mostly projections. Obviously, I'm going to take Brady and I'm going to take him to go over two and a half passing touchdowns. Now you're getting plus money on this, Okay, it's plus one twenty five is the
consensus lines. If you look around, you can get it at better than that. You can get it at plus one thirty five at bet MGM or plus one thirty two at FANDLE at DraftKings, and our consensus lines it is at plus one twenty five over the year. So he's gone over two and a half passing touchdowns eight times in nineteen games. All right, So that's why nineteen games including the playoffs, that's why you're getting plus money.
But the total points in the games that he has gone over fifty seven, seventy one, fifty four, fifty one, sixty nine, sixty five, sixty nine, and then one game thirty eight, which you manage to go over. So I expect this game to be high scoring. Whether or not it hits the fifty six or something like that, it's going to be a high scoring game. You know, he's going to need points. I think he's going to be chasing points because I think eventually the Chiefs are going
to get out out to a big lead. And they allow passing touchdowns in the league. I mean they were, you know, certainly in the top half. Even though they're good against wide receivers, they do allow a lot of passing touchdowns because they put up a ton of points. So obviously other teams need to just throw. So for me, look, you know, I don't expect I expect them to put up three four touchdowns again, because I think it's gonna be high scoring. So I think Brady gets at least
three passing touchdowns here. I'll take it with the plus money at plus one twenty five. Tom Brady over to an a half passing touchdowns like it.
I think there's a good chance that if you play it out and if you like the over, I think both Mahomes and Brady touchdowns. Over is probably to play it. But I just look historically speaking, you know, inside the red zone. Sure, they've got Leonard Fournette who could vulture it and take it away, but historically this team tends to score throwing the football.
Correct, So if I wouldn't. You know, it's funny because I thought Matt about like Brady anytime touchdowns because you can see him sneaking it in, right. And the Chiefs actually, oddly enough allowed a ton of rushing dutchdowns to quarterbacks and they weren't all like you know, they weren't all the Deshaun Watson types or anything like that. They were just kind of guys who snuck it in, like with
two of it and stuff. So I was thinking about doing that, But I really do think that in the end, especially given what they're gonna need, I think they're gonna need to do one of these things where you know that Brady has a deep pass that falls down at the two for it to be something like Leonard Fournette or even Brady sneaking in. So that is why I like. But yeah, the passing dutchdowns over two and a half for Mahomes obviously is minus one fifty five, right, Like
there's a big difference. I think they both are going to get there, But I like the Brady one because of the plus money. All right, what's your next one?
My next one is Ronald Jones over rushing yards. I think everyone is. I think everybody is talking up Leonard Fournette and they're forgetting that earlier in the year when Ronald Jones ran the ball consistently when he had I think the stat was when he ran the ball for fifteen more times or more times they were undefeated. They just don't They don't want to throw the ball in
every down. They want to run the ball. Fournette has got the carries because Jones got hurt late in the year and he missed the game, and then Fournette came in and Fornett was running the ball really hard. But I think ultimately, I still think they believe that Ronald Jones is the better running back. He went for ninety nine yard run against the Panthers on the road. He's got that breakaway speed. It could be popped in one run, thirty four and a half, thirty five, thirty six, Shop
around and see where you can get this. But I think everyone's on the Fournett prop. At FanDuel today, the Fournette prop went all the way up to fifty one and a half for his rushing total, and they got hit with two max bets on the under that dropped it back down to forty eight. I just think everyone is looking at this Fournette line and saying, Oh, it's gonna be playoff Lenny, here he comes. I don't think so.
I think you're looking at the wrong running back. I think Ronald Jones gets gets the bulk of the carries, and I think he's gonna obliterate thirty five yards rushing in this game. I think he's gonna go for sixty plus here, run the ball for the bucks. I love Ronald Jone Zones shop around for the best price, But Ronald Jones over rushing prop.
Yeah, the consensus line of them looking at is thirty five and a half. DraftKings is thirty seven and a half for whatever reason. So there are those out there, but for the most part, thirty five and a half. William Hill's at thirty four and a half. So this is where I'm saying, like those couple of yards, they may seem insignificant, but they're huge at this point because any edge you can get in that So this is interesting.
Matt I've tried to feel comfortable with the running game, but I think in the end, I just don't know. I mean, Fournette ran really well in this last game, and I don't know whether or not they're going to turn back to Jones. Jones did get some drives all to himself in the last game, So if he gets that, if he gets two or three drives that are all his, I mean, he could easily do this. If he get seven carries something like that, he could easily sort of
go there. So let me ask you something with that, Matt, do you have any interest? This isn't available everywhere, but there is most rushing yards in the game. Ronald Jones at plus two seventy five. Do you think cause if he he's gonna outrush Leonard Fournette, which it sounds like you might be thinking. I mean, I assume he's going to outrush anybody who's on the Chiefs, right, because I
don't expect them to. They're not who knows how many rushing attempts are gonna try anyway, And so do you like that at plus two seventy five?
I like that a lot, actually, And what's interesting, Fandor's got some very unique. They're actually doing head to head matchups on rushing props. So you can go, there is Leonard Fournette versus uh, Daryl Williams, there's Leonard, that, there's there's I don't think Le'Veon Bells involves I do.
I mean if he plays. If you, I here's here's my one recommendation if you. I haven't seen a Leonard Fournette like rushing prop out yet because I think the books are trying to be careful necessarily to see.
You mean Le'Veon Bell.
You mean what did I say, Leonardournette? I apologize, Leveon Bell correct thank you for correcting me. Yes, I haven't seen a Leveon Bell prop out yet. If it comes out, I'm hitting the under whatever it is like, I'm not kidding. I think that he may get out there even if he's active, hell, get like one carry. And I mean you heard the report today right or yesterday it was like he signed with the Chiefs so he wouldn't get
work anygain. I think Daryl Williams is looked better and Edwards Hilaire is is healthier now, so forget about that. But yeah, you do head to head I mean so you probably there's got to be value, I'm sure for you with Ron Jones going head tore.
And then the other one is you can The other bet is number of players who rush, who will get a rushing attempt in the game the Chiefs are The Chiefs are four and a half and the and the Bucks are three and a half. So the reason the reason why, And someone corrected me on my radio show because I said, who is the number five that might get the carry? Hardman's four? Okay, so it's Williams, It's Clyde verichs Hilaire, it's Mahomes, and it's mcerl Holman.
Yeah.
Yeah, So then number five. Someone said what about Leveon Bell.
And I went, oh, no, yeah, I guess.
Like that could burn you if he's if he's active, that could burn you if you're going to bet the under. But I had a hard time binding number five for the in the same thing for the for the Bucks. It's like, okay, so Brady may get a rushing attempt to sneak, and then you've got Rojo and you've got Fournette, right, and then do you have an Antonio Brown jet sweep?
Yeah? Who knows even gonna play by the way.
I mean, you know he's questionable too, So like that's where like I was like, hmm, I could actually see the under on both those bets come down. I'm not playing either one. But it's not always those are availables or unique at FANDUL, but those are unique ways of betting rushing props.
Yeah, that's the thing. Get get creative. I remember like one of my favorite wides, I forget what it was. It was something with most Raheem Mostert. It was like first carry over three yards or something like that. Yeah, and it hit. It just makes the rest of the day easier. So have have a lot of fun. So I'm gonna go to a running back, but I'm gonna go on the other side. Now here's the thing. I do not have a good sense in the same way I don't have a good sense of what it's going
to look like on the Bucks side. I don't have a good sense of what it's gonna look like on the Chief side, because Edward Hilaire is reportedly pretty healthy right now, and again it's against the Bucks. Like, you don't want to take running backs against the Bucks, and you don't want to running backs on the Chiefs because they don't really run the ball. So what I'm gonna do is I'm gonna pivot a little bit and I'm going to take over twelve and a half receiving yards.
It set minus one twenty four for Daryl Williams, so this is twelve and a half or thirteen and a half. I'd take it at thirteen and a half as well. It's actually eleven and a half at points bat I
like that even more. But the reason that I think this is because even if Edwards A. Laire is healthy, I think Daryl Williams has kind of proven himself recently in the playoffs that he's a guy that they feel comfortable relying on, and in particular, he's doing really well passbocking, and that is what you are going to need desperately in this game without Eric Fisher against that Bucks pass rush, so I think he's going to be in a lot
And again, they're going to pass. They're going to pass all day long, so I think the chances of him getting a dump off are really really high. Again, even if Edwards Hlaire is sort of like fully healthy and he gets a ton of work in this game, Like I think Williams is still going to factor in, and I think because he's such a good passbocker, he's going to be in there and all that really takes is one dump off, one dump off where he gets a little running room and gets there. So for me, I'm
not taking the rushing props on those guys. I actually kind of like this is because it's for plus money. I don't mind over two and a half catches for Darrin Williams as well. That's plus one forty five. Okay, that is not likely to happen. You can get it at plus one fifty five bet MGM. But this is what I kind of think about this game, man. I think Williams is going to play a big role, regardless
of Edwards Laire. I think because he's so good at pass blocking, he's going to be in a lot more than expected and in unpassing situations, which is basically going to be ninety percent of the situations. And I think that he's going to get involved enough in like sort of the dump off when Mahomes is like, oh my god, I'm running for my life for a second to make that number work. So for me, I'll take over twelve and a half and I'll take the over two and
a half. I'll put that at receptions, but just because you're getting plus one forty five, maybe plus one fifty five.
Okay, my next two or buy one player, Okay, And I'm going to go with Hartman here, and I got two plays on him. One. I like his over receiving a lot. I think I am going to be fading and I'll talk about it later, but the Hill prop for passing yards and the Kelsey passing yards prop, I'm gonna fade receiving the yard, sorry, not passing receivers. I'm just not going to be able to bet them until literally right before the game. I'm gonna wait, Oh, we'll
talk about that. Yeah, Okay. So like those those are gonna be plays, but I can't give them out here on the podcast because I don't know what the number is gonna be. But it should be one hundred. It should be one hundred and somewhere, and both of those guys should be around one hundred. So we're going I'm going under them both. But Hardman, I think the Bucks are gonna take away both those two guys as much as possible. They're gonna double they're gonna basically say, somebody
else is beating us. We're not letting Hill, We're not letting Kelsey beat us. So that means who else steps up? That means I think Hardman's gonna go feast. I think he easily gets forty to fifty yards receiving in this game, and I like him a score a touchdown to anytime touchdown for Hardman. Shop around and find the best rice on that. But I think Hardman scores, and I like the over on receiving yards for Hardman coming up here. You could shop around some of them. Not I saw
under thirty? Is it still under thirty? What you see?
Yeah, it's twenty eight and a half.
Yeah, all day? Give me Hardman. I think he's got fifty yards coming.
Okay, first of all, this is interesting. His odds on touchdowns scored, like anytime touchdowns are a little worse than I What are you expecting the odds to be met or have you looked at them at all?
What did I What did I see? Like I think I thought I saw like plus seventy five one eighty.
Oh okay, well they are that's where they are. Then they're fine actually met Ready when you run to bed MGM right after this his anytime touchdown plus two seventy five. So that's way out of line with the rest of the market. Like everything else is at basically plus two hundred. The contents of line is plus two twenty, but it's
at plus seventy five. Funny, Matt, I was wondering whether or not you were going to go over half a that's not available everywhere, but at William Hill over half a yard rushing, Like whether or not you thought they were going to give him a sweep there? It's plus two ninety if you go over half a yard rushing.
For me, he needs one rushing attempt to go over one yard and he hits that.
As long as he gains a yard, Matt, you never know you could get that. Yeah, what do you think William Hill? Go get it?
Matt?
One over over a half yards tonight.
I mean they gave him one play, correct, It's basically a one play bet, right. You know?
You know at one point they're going to either do the handoff or the little drop into him while he comes across, which counts as the past, right, because that's what they've done the last two games, one of them was a run. Yeah, run of them was the one where he drops off the Brady Special.
And that we needed him to have a catch there. A rush there.
Because I've gone over to his crop the last two games exactly right, and that unfortunately was a rush. So I didn't do anything for us. So that's what it is. But yeah, it's over twenty eight and a half his receiving yards. I do like that. I do want to ask, because it does come into play for me. Are you expecting Sammy Watkins to play in this game? And does that matter to you at all?
When you think about it, it matters, But it doesn't sound like he's going to be that healthy when if he does play. Yeah, so it's one of those things where it's like I'm gonna bank on him not being as healthy as they would like him to be. It's the super Bowl, so I think he'll play. But I think I think if Hardman's the guy who's more healthy, who gets open, I think Mahomes will trust him more than a gimpey Sammy Watkins.
And I assume are you assuming that DeMarcus Robinson clears the COVID because he's on the COVID list, Because he was a close he's playing, but you don't think he's playing at all.
I mean, I for what I mean, he sat in that barber chair for for long enough that I don't mean. It doesn't sound like.
Was he the barber because he was put on it earlier. He was put on I thought he was.
He was on the barber chair first. I thought both guys were in the barber chair, him in the backup center.
All I know, I know the backup I know he was. He's been on the COVID list for a few days because it was a close contact. So I don't know whether it's to the barber. Okay, all right, because I only both guys were.
Both guys were the barber, but he went first and then the rapid test came back when that when in knackup center was and he told him to finish. He didn't get up and ran. He didn't get up and run for the guy.
Well, at that point, at that point he's a close god dect right, So at that point it doesn't really matter. Okay, right, But okay, to your point though, regardless of Robinson, I like your hardman, but Todd, we mentioned Sammy Watkins. I'm in complete agreement with you, Like, I think he probably suits up in this game, but I'm gonna be really shocked if he's in any way a factor, which is why I like the under thirty six and a half receiving yards for him, which is at minus one twelve.
That's the universal across the across the board, it's it's thirty six and a half. It's pretty much anywhere between minus one ten and minus one fifteen. And again, you know, if DeMarcus Robinson is cleared, that makes it really enticing. So I don't think this number is gonna move really regardless, So you might as well wait if DeMarcus Robinson's cleared from the COVID list and he does come back, and forget about it, you pound the under all day long
for sure. But again he's still limited in practice. Like I think he'll play, but I agree with you. It's a super Bowl, so he'll try to play, but he's not at one hundred percent. You're gonna see mcole hardman. I agree with you there. So for me, I'm I think we're both kind of viewing this in the exact same way. We're basically fading Sammy w and buying Mikol Hardman.
So I'm with you there, but I'm going with it in a different way, and I'm gonna go with the under thirty six and a half receiving yards for Sammy Watkins. All right, what's next for you?
So we talked about Ronald Jones over YEP. I think touch the shortest touchdown prop at one and a half yards is an interesting look given the propensity for these teams to get down to the one and then who gets to punch it in. It's been a pretty consistent bet in the Super Bowl to have a team come down and to score off from the one yard LINEEP. So I like that under one and a half yards for the shortest touchdown for the game. Somebody with a push in either. You know, you could take Brady, you
could take my homes. You could take a punch in from Leonard Fournette. I don't mind the Leonard Fournette. I am close to going Leonard Fournette anytime touchdown. But since I'm looking at Ronald Jones, I'm like, nah, I'm kind of like I feel like I might middle myself there a little bit. I could lose both bets if I'm wrong about that. So I I'm eyeballing it there. I'm up there yet, But I think under one and a half yards for the shortest touchdown is a play I'm gonna make.
Yeah, I like it. Actually, I think I think that makes a lot of sense because you know you've seen even like that. I guess maybe it comes from the two, but even the little flip to Kelsey, you know that happens right there, right there. Yeah, I like it. By the way, anytime touchdown for Leonard Fournette is plus one twenty the consensus lines, so not great there, but yeah, I agree with you. All right, Let's let's go to Mahomes. Let's go to Mahomes props Mahomes.
I only have one on Mahomes's.
One of Momes. Okay, well I have two. They don't and I don't. I want to make it very very clear. I don't love either one of them, but I am going to go with the opposite. And I feel like part of it is that I got I and everybody else who got this is like a famous thing with his rushing yard prop last Super Bowl where he he took low past it in the third quarter and then took like twelve yards and sacks to run off some time to go under.
The seven yard one was the worst. It was. You could have survived the four yard, in the three yard, but the seven yard one was the worst.
You mean the best because you bet. I bet under, So I love well you did. Oh, I've been under.
You're the only one I've ever seen. Somebody on Twitter was asking that question, does anyone know anyone who won that? On that I saw audio boy, So you're right. Wow.
I like, team up with a close friend of mine and we did you know, prop bets for the Super Bowl, and we all did it and that was mine, like mine because I did projections for it, and I said, I have him under. I feel pretty good about it. And he just saidled right over it so early and I was like, yeah, my bet on that one, but my bad. And then he legitimately like wasn't watching at the very end of the game, he just stopped watching. And I texted him. I was like, you're not going
to believe this. We won, and he couldn't. He couldn't understand how it was possible. But I am going to go under again. Here. It's it's just up. It's minus one thirty seven and there is if you go on fandels minus one twenty two. Oh, actually, I'm sorry, that's to go that's to go over. Apologize to go under. It's plus one ten. So that that's one of the reasons why I like it. Nineteen and a half yards
is nothing. There are reports that his toe is feeling a lot better, but I don't really expect this to be. You know, in the past, you've seen him in these playoff games and his rushing totals, I mean they spike by good twenty yards a game every single time. I just there's no way he's one hundred percent healthy. It's turf though, Okay, that takes a long time to get better. I'm sure he's gonna be fine. And even when he's gimpy, he can still move and stuff like that. I do
also expect them to win. I do expect them to be some kneel downs and those couple of yards, those three extra yards, I think for me push it over. So I actually like the under, and again you're getting plus money on it. So plus one ten the under, nineteen and a half rushing yards. That's where I'm gonna go with mahomes. What's your mahomes prop that you like.
My Mahomes prop is to ride the turnover luck that the Bucks have had to continue into the Super Bowl. Not saying Mahomes is gonna throw a horrible pick, but some one's gonna drop a ball, Someone's gonna get an overthrow. Mahomes to be intercepted is plus one forty yep. I like Mahomes throw a pick in this game.
Yeah, it's one thirty five on draftings. I like it. Yeah, minus one sixty seven for under the half the half, but over half is one thirty five that I'm seeing. Yeah, I don't mind it. I mean, the Bucks are certainly figuring out ways to do it. It's Mahomes, so you wouldn't expect it. But yeah, it's most likely gonna take something. But again, the Super Bowl, there's always weird stuff. Man, there's always some weird stuff.
They're gonna win the game. Okay, Mahomes is seven and four. When he throws two picks or more, he has they have to turn the ball over, like, they've got to get that offense off the field in some form or fashion. So either pick in the end zone, you know, a pick you know in at no close to midfield, to give Brady a short field, Like, if they're gonna win the game outright, they're gonna have to find a way
to stop Patrick Mahomes. It's so hard to repeat because there is so much tape on you and what you do. And look, I don't I didn't like Todd Bowlds when he was with your Jets, but the guy's doing a bang up job with this defense right now and he may have maybe he should get a second chance at a head coaching job. I don't know, but he's a great defensive coordinator and he has really come into his own here in the postseason.
Yeah, you can't hold it against anybody how they do with the Jets. Okay, you might need, you know, like a PhD to succeed in that job. Yeah, I really don't mind it, and I'm I'm going to fade Mahomes a little bit on this one. It's not crazy. We were talking about the passing yards prop and I see it as under as well. I don't want to bet it, but I see it there. I would rather go with the under twenty eight and a half completions rather than
the Yordage prop. Now that's juiced up a bit to minus one twenty four if you go, if you bet the over twenty and a half, it's even money. He went under that number of completions twenty eight and a
half in eleven of his sixteen regular season games. And really the issue is just for them to the extent you're looking at the un it's just the fact that they have so many just incredibly long plays, right the slants of Tyreek Hill to turn into fifty sixty yard plays, the huge you know, every time you know Travis Kelsey catches the ball, it's just a fifteen twenty. They can snap off a twenty yard play like other teams snap off five yard outs. You know, it's just nothing for them.
So for me, it's not crazy like when I, you know, looked at the my initial run of projections, which again i'm going to redo before I get was twenty seven. So it's not as if it's like, Wow, I have this huge edge here. You're not going to find huge edges on any of these things. If people who do projections, there's no way because they the lines are so sharp.
But for me, I don't like the yardage as much, even though I lean the under, but I like more of the pass completions for the ender, because again, I expect them to be ahead in this game. I don't think they're going to need to go crazy and they're going to pass all day long. But I don't. I just think with the long passes that the completion number in and of itself is the one that kind of leans towards the ender. So that's why two unders on
the homes is rushing yard. Well, we have done under rushing yards, under completions and an interception in this game from a home, So I gotta be honest, we got to rethink our strategy here. Okay, what else?
Yeah?
What else?
You want? Only one more? And this is just because it's hit so consistently during the regular season. I think if I go back and look at the number of times Mike Evans cast over receiving yards props for me in the regular season, it had to have been one of one of my favorite prop bets that I bet all year. So I'm just gonna go sixty three, sixty three and a half, depending on where you're gonna get
this number, Mike Evans over receiving yards. Brady just hunts for him, He just looks for him all the time, and there's always that lollipop go up there and get it, big eye type of catch that goes for thirty thirty five yards. So all we need is one or two of those, and we're good here for Mike Evans over sixty three yards receiving. So I'm going over with Mike Evans.
Yeah, they consent this line of sixty three and a half overs minus one oh six, so you can get sixty. You can always get a better line for what you want. Matt at BETMGM, it's sixty two and a half there. Yeah. I have a tough time with this because I think that that's what's gonna happen. And you're right, because we one thing we know about Brady is he's got to keep throwing it up. He's got to keep throwing it deep. Doesn't really matter the game situation. As we saw against
the Packers, He's going to keep going with it. And so you can see the Chiefs have just done such a good job of limiting wide receivers throughout the entire season. But I mean, if I have to go one way or the other, I will go over. But I just you know, it makes me a little nervous to do it for anybody against the Chiefs, but.
It's my least favorite one. I mean, it's just it's problematic because I know that pressure to Brady and Chris Jones. You know, there are a lot of people. I'm not betting the MVP because I don't trust the voters, and so, like, the biggest liability that Vanduel has is JPP to win
the MVP, which is real hysterical. Which is hysterical, right because you can play it out right, if he had he has two sacks and the pick six or something, then it's like, oh my, he might like but Chris Jones equally, people think last year Chris Jones should have won the MVP. So it's just it's not it's offensive award. It's a quarterback award. So it's always like either Brady or Mahomes. Mahomes wins, it's Mahomes, Brady wins, it's Brady.
But that's why the MVP wise, people have been kind of looking and kind of trying to find different values in there, and and it's a people have said, well, maybe it could be a wide receiver. I mean, what happens with Mike Evans goes for two hundred yards and four touchdowns or something crazy like that. It's so it's it's so hard to pick.
I mean, Edelman won it, but that wasn't it. I feel like, if it's a non quarterback, it's got to be in a weird game where it's super defensive, right in a game like Edelman.
The Boston media skewed that. Oh really, that was tough. That was the Boston media awarding that to Edelman. That was a really tight vote for him to win that. Yeah, and that was basically just like all the Boston media who had votes in the building were like, yep, it's Edelman because no one else wanted to vote for him, right. That was that was not an easy victory for him to pull down. But he should have won it. But it was really close for him to win the MVP of that Super Bowl.
Yeah, but you know, you in the in the game that the Broncos won in Manning's last game, I forget who it was was. Maybe I forget who it was, but it was a defensive player in the Seattle game.
With von Miller, right, yeah, it was von Miller, right, he was He was like, he's the last defens a player to win the MVP is von.
Miller right exactly in the Seattle game, I think where they destroyed, uh, the Broncos. Before that there was a defensive player because you couldn't give it a Wilson because the team just crushed. You know that the game is just completely out of hand. Other than that, it's almost guaranteed to be a quarterback. I think the last like regular wide receiver to win and like a really close, good game for everybody was like Santonio Holmes in that
Steelers Arizona game. So a millennium ago basically for me. So I'm going to go with a a prop that I like. It makes me very uncomfortable to bet it, but I'm gonna do it. And it's Tyreek Hill under six and a half catches. Now you can get under its.
Y going yards, You're going receptions.
I'm going you want to go. So we talked, you want to talk about the yards little because you talked about it. You want to talk about it with Kelsey. The yards are at ninety three and a half. That's a lot of yards, and Kelsey is around the same. I believe I'm checking it now.
Kelsey four fandels at ninety eight aren't they.
For Kelsey Fandles at ninety eight and.
A half like a tight end? Yeah, ninety I know, And you.
Know what, I can't do it. I can't bet I under.
I will I can and I will Well, I'm.
Going to do the worst part and I'm just not going to touch either one. Instead, I'm going to go wonder on reception. So here's the one thing. If you looked right now and again, I don't know what it's going to be like when you look at it by the time you listen to this, but you look at the receptions, you will see that it's all over the place between six and a half and seven and a half. The difference, obviously is the juice and that if you're going under six and a half, you're getting plus money
on fandle. It's plus one twenty eight to go under six and a half receptions. So I'm going to ask you, Matt, without looking it up obviously, how many times did Tyreek Hill have more Do you think had more than six catches? Because it's six and a half, how many times they had more than six catches during the regular season? He played fifteen y okay, because he took last week off, So how many times does he have more than six catches?
Four?
Three? I mean, that's the thing. It's not now. Look, we're not going to talk about the playoffs at all, where he's basically got eight and nine catches and got nuts, And we're not going to talk about that first game against the Bucks where he had thirteen catches in two hundred and six and nine yards. It happens. It happens, you know, especially now where he has become the focal point. But I kind of do think that you mentioned Bowls again,
bolds is a good defensive coach for sure. You know, hopefully he gets another shot at a head coaching job. He's done a really good job in the playoffs, as we've talked about. The only game he looked kind of shaky was that Washington game, where again I think they prepared for Alex Smith. So I'm not going to really have too much on him. But I mean, not that it matters, there's no revenge factor, but they were, of course so embarrassed in that first game with.
What tyres was a big revenge factor.
You know, well, you know, at the very least they know they have to figure out a way to stop that so I think so the under on the yardage I don't hate either. It's just I see the scenario much more of a little slant going for seventy five yards, and I think I see it as him getting peppered with targets and catches all day long. That's especially true because again without Eric Fisher, they're gonna get a lot
of pressure on Mahomes. So I don't think you're gonna have these chances, a lot of chances for Hill to have four seconds to run his really deep route. I think Mahomes is gonna focus on getting the ball out quick, which again that could be to Tyreek Hill. There could be a lot of very quick passes to Tyrek Hill. But in the end, I think he'll really makes his money on these long passes. That's what they like to get him involved, to have roots that take time to develop.
I don't think they have enough time to do it. So for me, especially getting plus money, if it's seven and a half, by the way to get the under is minus one thirty seven, so it's obviously a huge difference. But for me, I'm gonna go with the under six and a half. Now, it sounds like Matt you're not betting it, but you you lean towards the under on both Kelsey and Hill.
I'm gone on game day, I'll bet it. I'll tell you basically, on the live stream, I'll be betting the under. I'm just gonna let this thing climb to get to beat ups scene number. And here's my thought. And look, I'm on a divisive coordinator. So I don't know what Todd Bulls is gonna do. But here's what I think they're gonna do. I think they're gonna they're gonna copy
the what the Las Vegas Raiders did. I think they can get pressure with four or three down linemen, and I think they can play zone behind it, and it's gonna open up the middle of the field. And you could say, well, maybe they dink and dunk all day long. With Kelsey, that's possible, right, but you take away the home run hit, and so maybe you look at the Kelsey prop and maybe, okay, it's less likely the Kelsey hits, and maybe I'll talk myself out of the Kelsey prop.
But I like the Hill more than the more than the Kelsey one, because I think if you are going to play what I mean, really, what the Packers should have been doing at halftime, which is, no one gets behind us. We're just gonna play zone. We're gonna go ahead and rush for We're gonna play you want. You want to dink and dunk all day long, that's fine, we'll clamp down in the red zone. We're gonna give you yards, which means maybe Kelsey picks up that hundred.
But that's how I think they're gonna do it with with Thurik Kill, Like, how do they keep him out in behind from getting behind them? You just have the deepest man. You just you're gonna have one one guy deeper than Tarik Kill every single time. You're never gonna let him get behind you. So that I think could
be the strategy. And then if you have offensive line problems, you set loose you know, White and JPP, and you know if you devea, you let these guys go after it, and maybe they're able to clog the middle up enough or get to pressure and put pressure on enough that makes Mahomes uncomfortable.
Interesting, So I mean, really, if they do that, it is the yardage, less about the receptions really, because you know it might be more ding and done. I could see that as well. I think that makes a lot of sense.
That's the only way you take him away though, right, I mean you can't. You can't put him one on one, and you can't even double them. You can't even bracket him. He'll run away from you. Right. There's no one in that defense that can match his speed. We saw that in the first matchup. The only way you're gonna do it is a forty yard cushion by taking your strong safety or your free safety and putting them forty yards
ahead of terik kill. So if they throw the bomb, that player has a time to come over and knock it away.
Yeah. Yeah, all right, that's a that's a that's a decent way down. So you think this number, though, is going to continue to climb even now, even as Oh.
There's no debate in my mind this thing. I don't think this thing gets real underplay until it gets to one hundred and ten or more.
What that high?
Yeah, I'm dead serious. Look at the last Look at the last four games, I know, look at the numbers. I mean it's absolutely ridiculous. Last game what they had one hundred and eighteen, one hundred and twenty. Yeah, I mean it's psychotic, what the numbers are doing, and I just think everybody it gets to the super Bowl and then everybody goes, what the hell happened? Yeah, and what you normally have seen during the regular season. It's a
funky game. There's more timeouts, the halftime is super long, the pregame is super long. It's a different flow the game. Brady always talks about it. You've got to have experience in this game. It's weird. Like the Falcons ran out of gas, like they're mentally and physically they just stopped thinking because they were tied long day. You're all hyped up, and then the fourth quarter comes around and you're like,
oh my gosh, this game's been going on forever. Because you have to run twenty eight commercials, right, They got to run twenty eight sixty second commercials in this darn thing, so you know, they have to make up commercial breaks sometimes if there's long drives and the quarters go fast, they got to make up the commercials. So their stop of the game left and right, going to make the commercials up. This is not a typical football game, and a lot of times teams have a tough time with it.
Yeah, all right, at those are all really good points. Okay, this was excellent. I love this podcast and I it is a good warm up for the prop livechain that we talked about that we're going to be doing on Betting pro on YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros again. That is going to be on Sunday, Super Bowl Sunday at four thirty Eastern to five thirty, and again the giveaway is going to be amazing. And let me just
explain it so you guys like fully understand it. Okay, the giveaway, it's not open right now, like nobody's entering. We open that giveaway when we get to the live stream. Okay, that's gonna be at four thirty and it's only gonna be open for an hour. There are not gonna be that many entrants into this giveaway to win it. And it's awesome. That's gonna unveil it live on the at the end of the livestroom. It's going to be awesome.
I promise you really want to be there again YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros four thirty Eastern on Super Bowl Sunday. Do not miss it, all right, Matt are you are you a little more pumped now? Like we did some bets, like I know you were kind of.
Talking to me on Sunday, alday. I'll be fired up on Sunday.
Alright, Debbie Downer, that's fine, all right, So we will talk again on Sunday again four thirty YouTube dot com slash betting Pros. We'll talk to you then. Until then, enjoy the last few days that we have of the twenty twenty NFL season, and we'll talk to you on Sunday