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Everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the Betting PRESIDENTL Podcast. I'm your host Dan Harris, with me is Matt Perrault. Find us on Twitter at Dan Harris Adi and at Sports Talk Matt Matt super Bowl. I mean we did not have we did not have Javagship Weekend. Now, Matt, we did not have those games. Now we can just be honest about it, right, I mean, oh, we didn't have it.
I need January to end. I need this month to go away, because this is I'm looking forward to closing the book on the play on the football season because you know, college football saved me on weekends like that, and without college football to kind of save my tail, that's not been fun. And it's just been sort of this falling down the stairs to the end eventually you hit the ground because well you were on a stairs to fall down. So okay, basically what I'm doing here with the NFL season.
Yeah, I mean talking about it last week, we basically said, Okay, I think what we can see is like I can see a scenario where one of these games is a blowout, and if it is, it's the Packers blowing out the
Bucks and then Bills plus nine. The fact that the Chiefs picked that game against a hot, hot Bills team with Patrick Mahomes hobbled by that toe to suddenly just basically completely destroy I mean they could You felt like they could have put up five hundred points if they really wanted to done absolutely whatever they wanted, They could have won that game by you know, twenty five points they really wanted to just nuts. Man.
Now, it's hard to say this in sports because on most in most sports, when you get to the championship round, you can't throw the switch right right. But for whatever reason, this Kanasty team has the ability to do that. They can just throw the switch if they want to. They just go out there and chuck it up and that's it.
It's over.
And that's the most scariest thing about this upcoming Super Bowl is that you just don't know if they're gonna throw the switch again.
And if they do, uh oh yeah.
Well let's talk about it. So here's what we're gonna do. This is we are recording this. You know, we usually record the shows on Thursday Thursday night with the games on Sunday. We want to do here. Obviously, we have the week off since the super Bowl isn't until next Sunday. So what we're doing here is we're gonna go through the opening lines. They're not even quite as opening because they've moved a little bit, and I'll note that from
when they immediately opened right after. But our instant reaction to this what we think they're gonna do. If we think if you want to bet it, when you should bet it, and what you should do with it, how if we have a lean on any of the lines, and then next week we'll do a prop episode where we'll do it, and on Super Bowl Sunday we'll have more details for this. We'll put it up on Twitter, we'll publicize it, will make sure you guys know. We're gonna do a nice live stream where we're gonna be
giving away some awesome prizes. We're gonna talk about prop we're gonna talk what all sorts of good stuff that'll be in our YouTube channel YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros. But for now, Matt, let's talk about it. We've got a super Bowl. As you may have heard by now, people, this is the first time ever that a Super Bowl has been played in the stadium of one of the teams that is playing in the Super Bowl. It's a
home game essentially for the Bucks. Although Matt, you and I will talk a little bit and you might have more insight into this about just how much of a home game other than being comfortable in the stadium. It's going to be the line right now, the consensus line on bettingpros dot com, which I'm looking at is minus three now. Yesterday night I looked at it and it looked like it was bouncing around between minus three and
minus three point five. That's the Chiefs laying three to the Bucks or the Chiefs laying three and a half to the Bucks. The total right now when I looked at it last night was fifty seven and a half. That was the highest ever for a Super Bowl. It is now down to fifty six and a half as the consensus lines, and I believe that that is lower than what the Falcons and the Patriots ended up at, which I believe was fifty seven. And the money line right now out the consensus lign is the Chiefs minus
one seventy and the Bucks plus one forty five. So, Matt, all of it, whatever you want to talk about, what's just your reaction to the line. Does it feel right overall? You know any any value that you see on either side?
No, I don't see any value.
And this is why the game was played in this stadium between these two teams.
The line was three and a half. It fell three.
I remember, Matt, if you remember, you and I were on curferent sides of that game. I like the Bucks, you like the Chiefs. Yes, yep.
So we have seen this game.
Yep.
It's been played in this stadium. We have seen these two quarterbacks, We've seen these two defenses. We saw the Chiefs put up twenty one points in the first half and then basically just coast and say, okay, we won.
Who cares?
Yep.
From a book making perspective, this number is cemented, it will go three, three and a half.
That's it.
There will not be any big line move. I don't care if a million dollar comes in here on one side of the other. You were not going to see the books go over three to two and a half, three and a half. It's just that is the maximum you're going to see here. We're not getting a four. I doubt you're getting a two and a half. That would be a shocker if we went to two and a half. But this is going to be a line where the book is very comfortable where the line is.
They're going to move the.
Total because of how big it is, and you could see a lot of money coming on the under. I think if the puppet gets involved, they're going to bet the over, And if I had a gun to my head, I would bet the over, even though it took overtime for the Patriots and the Falcons to get there. When their line was fifty seven. It got to sixty two as the final closing number, but that was because of
the James White touchdown and overtime. So I just think right now, I'm not going to play a side or a total on this game, even though even if I was hot, even if I was going well, I wouldn't play this. The reason is I would take the Chiefs. Okay, if I had to bet it, I'd take the Chiefs. However, I had the Bucks losing to the Washington football team, the Bucks losing to the Saints, I the Bucks losing last week to the Packers, not doing it in the
super Bowl. I'm not betting against Tom Brady in the Super Bowl, not against Gronkowski and not against this defense, which has insane They call it puck luck in hockey, it's turnover luck. Okay, these guys are having insane turnover luck, and they're getting more turnovers in the postseason than they had by a ways in the regular season.
For those reasons.
Even though I think Casey wins, if you have two turnovers against the Chiefs, that's when Patrick Mahomes loses. I think the record is seven and four, and Patrick Mahomes has two or more turnovers in the NFL. It's still pretty good, but it's seven and four for a Mahomes team where he doesn't lose very often. If the Bucks are going to win, that turnover luck is gonna have to continue.
So let me ask you something, Matt, just as a general sort of because you know, I mean, I think I know the answer to this, but I people listening aren't. Is tuned into the betting world most most times, Matt, if there's line movement or anything like that, like a lot of times, it's on probably based on at least more on sharp action or people who know what they're doing the public, though in this I don't that's not
what the Super Bowl lines really do, does it? Like, I feel like because there's so much public betting on it that it's not like, well, the sharps are on this side, do the books really care? Oh at this point?
Oh yeah they do.
In the Super Bowl, Yeah yeah, yeah, yeah. The first move is always the most important move. Now, remember what happened when the Patriots played the Eagles. The first move was on the Eagles. All that money came in on the Eagles early. What happened, Eagles won outright, but the Patriots are won six and a half point favorites when it opened. I think the line closed at like four and a half for the Patriots for the against the Eagles. Eagles won the game outright. The first move always matters.
The first big bets always come in when there is value the syndicates and they want closing line value. They want that first number that gets put up because they want to hammer it. That's why there's you know, there's some homogenization of the first line that goes up, but oftentimes it's only a point, half a point.
It's pretty much in the same region.
Everyone was three or three and a half plasted across the board.
Nobody had four, nobody had two and a half.
Everyone came up with the same number because the game was just played with the Chiefs miles three and a half at Tampa and the game fell three. So even though I can easily see the Chiefs winning this game by seven, I can also see the Tampa Bay Bucks coming back and getting more luck and more turnovers and turning those turns into points and the Bucks winning it. I'm a top I'm a Tom Brady guy. I'm a Patriot fan. I'm gonna cheer for Brady. I would love
to see number seven. And I have a long standing feud with chief fans. So I'm all in on the Buccaneers coming up this weekend.
All right?
So or next weekend?
I I right, next weekend?
Right.
I have a bunch of different thoughts right now. Like my instinct just says, just from watching the games, is that you cannot possible beat this Chiefs team unless Patrick Mahomes gets injured. It isn't I can't in a in a must win game, you can't beat him. Like, I just don't understand how when you have Kelsey and you have Hill and you have Patrick Mahomes. I just don't see how you stop that offense with a and.
You have a horrible secondary that incredibly the Packers could not move the football on.
I don't.
I still can't figure out what the hell happened in that game.
Yeah, it really as best I could I could say, is that, you know, they they decided they were gonna essentially take away Stefan Diggs that that's basically where they put it. Look, they're good, I mean, oh the pack I'm sorry why the Packers couldn't move the ball against the box?
Yeah?
Is that what you're saying?
No, I'm sorry, yeah, but both but yeah, but both ways. Sorry, Yes, I I skipped over it, Yes, I I I still can't figure out. You know, that secondary for the for Tampa Bay is bad. And I can't figure out how the Packers.
Didn't lost their safeties in the game, and.
In Winfield didn't play either. Right, So that's why I can't figure out. Because I think the Chiefs are going to have an absolute field day right like they did the first time. Remember the whole flipping of the end zone thing. Sure, I think Hill is going to be doing a couple of those coming up.
Yeah, yeah, I'm right. So there's a bunch of things I'm kind of I'm all over the place a little bit. So I think, like, here's my thing. The first my first instinct on it, like when the game came out and I knew, like I don't know about you, Matt, when I knew when it became clear that it was going to be the Chiefs in the Bucks. Three is what I thought. I thought minus three would be the line. I don't know if that's what you thought, because that, yeah struck me.
Yeah, I thought three and a half because I think that they would want to try to entice some money on tipa bay. Yeah, so I thought three and a half would be the number. But yeah, right there, three three and a half.
Right, First of all, I will say again, you guys know, if you've listened to this, I'm in New Hampshire. The only book I can bet out of Draft Kings, it is still three and a half. At Draft it's three most it's our consensus line is three. It's three at bet MGM, it's three at Fandle, it's three at william Hill. But it is three and a half.
And you know why that is though, right, Why Patriot Money DraftKings is in different books if it's Johnny Velli know Jhonnavella knows what's going to come into England on.
When you want to move it then towards the Chiefs. Am I crazy?
You know you want you want because they think Chiefs are gonna win that game pretty big.
Oh. I see they want the money to come in, correct it.
Oh, I see they want people to take the Bucks on the hook is what they want.
I see. I thought what you were saying is they're expecting a ton of money to come in, regardless on Brady. So if that's the case, if you're saying like whatever, but it sounds more like, you know, it's New England. They're expecting people to want, like the excuse almost to bet on Tom Brady. If they're giving them the hook, their likes, I don't care.
Yeah, That's why I think Johnny Vella was fine. I think that that could be the narrative across the entire country. I'm not putting it against Brady and mahomes Is tow and we're gonna make all these different I mean, I think there's a real potential here that this game is a disaster for the Bucks. But I'm not going to bet it. Oh, But I think that the blowout potential. I've been saying this and I might end up going this way. I'm the kiss of.
Death right now.
So if you're a cheap you don't want me to do this, But I'm gonna cheer for Brady and bet the chiefs.
Matt. How many games have the Bucks lost by more than three points? This here?
This year? This year?
Don't you can just guests number? They've lost two, both to the Saints. That's it. Everyone lost.
What was the what was the loss to the Raiders? It was?
It was, uh, the from the the Bucks. I'm saying, how many how many games has the Bucks lost by more than three points? Is here? The Bucks?
Oh? Okay? Yeah, both to the Saints? Right, Both those blow losses, right? Correct?
The other losses now they kept it within three points, they don't get And one of them was the first game of the year, which I throw out like that second game against the Saints. Fine, yeah, that's fine, the first game, right, I mean they hadn't even practiced together or whatever like that. They don't get blown out. So I get it why people are sitting here wanting to
take the Bucks. But I there's a zero I'll say this, there's a zero percent I will bet the Bucks on this if the line comes down to three at DraftKings, because that's the general consensus. I'll probably put it on the Chiefs because again, I don't see how you stop the Chiefs at this point whatsoever. And the Bucks. Matt, Look, dude, you correct me if I'm wrong. Okay, we watch these games. We're objective, we're betting on them and everything like that.
I haven't been like, oh man, the Bucks are an incredible football team right now. They're amazing. I mean, Brady tried whatever he could to give that game back. Brady's amazing. Okay, Brady's the Goats Gray's of all time. Single handedly has basically turned that entire franchise around.
Can we talk about that for one second.
Yeah, because I think there's one thing that this goes back to the luck factor. Okay, let's just rewind the game for a second and play it out as to what actually.
Happened before the first half.
The throat that I think everyone's gonna remember is the catch to Scottie Miller. Okay, yep, King for the Packers play the worst game I've seen by a cornerback, maybe in the postseason, maybe ever he got beat on the first touchdown to Mike Evans, he got beat on the Scotty Miller over the top, and he was the one who pulled on Tyler Johnson's jersey to get the flag at the end of the game. Okay, so three plays,
all incredibly important, all awful on his part. He miss timed his jump on the first touchdown, he let Miller get behind him, and then you pull on a jersey that was so obvious they had to call it because it never should have been called. But fine, they called it. So I rate that that call was made. But fine, the call was made.
Yep.
The play before the Scotty Miller play, the safety comes over and the ball goes through his hands. Brady should have been picked off four times in that game, and then that touchdown doesn't happen, and the chances of the Packers winning that game goes up exponentially. That touchdown at the end of the first half was the deciding score in the entire game. And here we're sitting here talking about Tom Brady throwing four picks and Aaron Rodgers beating Tom Brady to go to the Super Bowl.
Yep.
So that's why I would be careful here about buying into this Tampa Bay team because I do think and look, teams get hot, teams go on runs, and Tom Brady's damn lucky go through the Super Bowl. Okay, Tom Brady is five and five straight up in the ten games he's played in. He's five and five against the number six and three straight up five and five ats. And the reason is he gave two leads to his defense against the Giants and they coughed it up and blew it.
He also got real lucky when the Falcons decided not to run the football and throw the ball when they were up twenty eight to three.
That let them come back, and.
Pete Carroll makes a really stupid call, same with the offensive coordinator, bad throw interception with the goal line. Patriots win that Super Bowl. So there's a lot of luck in team sport. You know, football is a team sport. But people are gonna buy into this Brady thing a
little bit too much. I want him to win. I'm just I don't think I'm wrong to say the picking against this team three straight games was the right decision because of they've I mean, look at it was twenty to twenty in the fourth quarter against the Saints and Jared.
Cook fummost the football.
Yeah, if he doesn't do that in the score a field goal or a touchdown, they might win the game instead to ten ozer run and two more picks, free more picks really from a noodle armed quarterback who couldn't throw the ball down the field in crunch time after playing the whole game, and we're finding out how many injuries Drew Brees had, which were like ridiculous.
Right, I'm with you.
I just I don't think this team's that great. Right, and again that fans might hate me for saying that, but.
Well let's let's let's you know, let's make it clear. Of course, like Tom Brady is even at his advancedtage, Yeah, forget about his history, obviously, the goat. Even at his advanced age, he's he's an excellent quarterback. Okay, he's not one of the best quarterbacks in the league. The mental side of the game, he's still great. But yeah, this is what I'm saying is that. And I was on them the first two rounds. I picked against some of the Packers, but I had them to beat the Saints.
That was one of the ones that you and I disagreed on I had them to be the Saints and I had them to beat Washington, although I teased it down in terms of the points spread. But I've been watching them. I've been watching them closely, and I think they're a very good football team. I do. I think they're a very good football team. They're in the super Bowl. You really don't get there unless you are. But I'm
just your point. The way you broke down yesterday, I think is absolutely correct, which is that touchdown right on the last play, essentially the last play left one second left, but the last play the half never should have happened. Ever, it was basically like the Greg Williams call against the Raiders. You left King out there alone by himself. Miller just ran right by him for that touchdown. That doesn't happen.
Who knows if the game is different. Aaron Jones fumbled like you know, you expecting the Packers to get the ball right out of the half. He fumbled, Then he's out for the game. Brady threw pretty bad intercepting. I mean, the deep one to Evans was way too inside. The other one obviously they could have scored a touch and that was too high. Maybe you make that catch, maybe you don't, whatever, but they have not. They easily could
have lost one of these games. And look, the Chiefs could have lost to the Browns, but that was really without Patrick Mahomes. Essentially, it's this is just something where I think the Chiefs are a much better football team in this scenario. So it is something where there's no way I could bet on the Bucks. And I'm hoping the DraftKings moves it down to three and then I'll probably fire something on the Chiefs. But again, before this game that we talked about it forever, Chiefs don't blow
anybody out, like they just don't. They let every team hang around. They don't cover the spread.
Whatsoever except the Bills.
Except the Bills when you and I teased it up by the way nine right where they were like great. And there's a couple of things, Okay, so let's just talk let's break down other than this, Well, let's break down a couple of things about the game. Number One, we know Andy Reid generally speaking off of bye play
as well, has his guys ready to go. I don't know how much of a difference it's gonna make at this point, but we assume Sammy Watkins is probably going to be back since he was close to playing in this game. Necessarily get another you know, week of recovery for Clyde Edwards Hileiro, though Derel Williams is running better something. I don't know how much you put into this at this point because usually, you know, offensive linemen, especially good
one when they're out that really hurts a team. Eric Fisher is not going to play in the Super Bowl two of it, yeah, correct, Eric Fisher really kind of the big one especially, But I don't know how much it matters with Mahomes, Like, I just don't I know, his mobility is limited, but he looked fine. I mean, you know, he didn't look like he's ready to take off and run for forty yards, but he looks fine.
So, oh, he looks fine.
But I also think there's a real chance they just go Brian Dabble on this, yeah, and they scrap the running attack and they just say, look, we're not going to run the ball because we can't. We're just going to protect Patrick Mahomes and pass down because you can't cover us.
Yeah.
So I think there's a real chance that Mahomes, I mean we'll get into it later in the prop bets. But I just think I think there's a chance Mahome just throws for a stupid amount of yards. Sure, and just I mean, I think Mahomes puts up a number that is just going to be god like. I wouldn't be surprised if Patrick Mahomes throws for three hundred and fifty yards in four touchdowns.
Yeah, I just think he.
I think he's gonna torch this defense.
And I again, going back to April when I lost my mind on the Packers selecting Jordan Love, I simply cannot get over the fact that they blew a first round pick for a player that may not play even.
Next year for the Packers. I mean, King could have been replaced by a safety. They could have drafted an Tony Winfield.
Winfield could have been on that field, Nott King, they could have gotten in safety. They could have gotten somebody on the back end, a linebacker. I mean Queen got drafted right bright afterwards, I mean they had They could have gotten t Higgins. I mean, they could have gotten Michael Pittman. I mean, there's so many guys that could
have drafted. Instead, they took a quarterback who may not play in twenty twenty one, and it was the biggest wasted first round pick for a team that went to back to back NFC Championship games.
Yep.
And it's just like, I'm so if I'm Aaron Rodgers, I'm so mad, because of course he needed Demante Adams needed somebody to take the pressure off. He needed somebody else, and there just wasn't anybody else to help him.
Well, don't forget. Look they're they're you know, they also took Dylan who's a fine running back, but he you know, he doesn't you had Aaron Jones right now like they needed. They ignored this year of course, and Roder Still, they still got to thirteen and three and they could have won that game and gone to the Super Bowl.
So NBP season, I know. And then after the game it's like, are you gonna come back? Basically he's like, I don't know.
I know, I you know, I I for me, I think that's just like a he was devastated and he just kind of is like, uh, the gout to think of things. But whatever. All that to say, we've got plenty of time to analyze that. Here's how I feel about the game number one. However you feel about it, I don't think you need to bet it right now. Like that's why I mean, I guess, Matt, if you like the Chiefs, maybe you take them now in three because it's possible that the books go to three and a half.
They'll be able to find three. All right, I mean you'll be able to it's not gonna move. I mean it's everyone. I talked to everyone that was on my show, all the book makers. Everyone is saying, it's a really easy line. It's just three.
Yes, they just put it up. It's three, and they're good. Maybe three and a half, but they're good.
I mean they may go to three and a half if they need to get some buck money, but go to three and a half yea, then they'll go back down to three. Like it's just from a book making perspective, the line itself. They're very comfortable where it is, and they're comfortable on the two way action.
They're going to receive the total. I think if you're looking for.
An over under bet, I think that's where the volatility is going to come in.
Okay, So where do you think it goes?
Man? Because right now, down for six down and then the public will bet it back up.
Okay, all right, so I guess I.
Think the ceiling is fifty five would be my guess. I think you'll start to see it come down as the week goes on. You'll see more and more people make a case that the Chief's going to kick field goals and that you know, Tom Brady might not be able to because historically speaking, Brady and Super Bowls has not scored a ton. So you know, just look at you know, just where he is and again post you know, the last nine crazy to say that us nine super
Bowls for Brady. It doesn't matter because he's not with that team anymore. He's with Bruce Arians. I'm real concerned about Bruce Arians. I'm gonna say right now, I'm real concerned about him. I'm really concerned that Andy Reid's gonna absolutely torch that guy in coach circles around him. Todd Bowles has been tremendous and he's probably the biggest saving grace for Bruce Arians to keep him from really like
completely blowing this. And I think they owe him a big raise that they keep him, because that guy could get a head coaching job and he's.
You know what's so funny is said Bulls. And again, I you know, I have a very very close friend who's a huge Bucks fan, and so we basically after the game, we have like an hour phone call every time just kind of dissect the game. That first game against Washington, he was screaming about Bulls because you know, Heineke was throwing, you know, doing what guys were wide
open right in the game. And again, I think that that was much more just because they prepared for Alex Smith, right, I think they thought Alex Smith was going to play, and they were not prepared for somebody to just be slinging down the field and no one's seen.
That guy play really so right game tap my kid exactly.
But yeah, what they did in this last game against Packers, against the Saints, and again especially against the Packers with all the injuries. So Igreen Bowles was a coach of the Jets, and I didn't love him then, but he's he's done a really good job the last Look, some.
Guys are DC's and they shouldn't be head coaches. He's one of them.
He shouldn't be a head coach. He's a great defensive mind, focus on defense. And look, if Jason Pierre Paul plays like he did against Aaron Rodgers against Tom Brady, Britty's in trouble. I mean, I mean, I mean, I mean Mahomes could be in trouble because he's running around like the giant version of j Brady. So that to me is a significant factor if they can get pressure on Mahomes.
The difference is Rodgers for whatever reason his I don't want to say he aged before our eyes, but he doesn't have that quickness he once did to get out of the pocket his first couple of steps, and he clearly doesn't trust himself to outrun defensive lineman or he would have ran it on third and nine to go to the pylon or try to get down to the one yard line.
Yeah, that was row shocking to everybody.
I know, yep, that throat because but but like if you look at the tape and run it, it's because he sees JPP and he made a business decision. He made His decision was do I want to run for the pylon with Jason Pierre Paul running me down from behind, or do I want to try to squeeze it in a tight window to DeVante Adams at the goal line and hope that Adams can beat two defenders and come
up with the football, and he couldn't. So if JPP is running like this and playing the way that he is or he did in that game, you know he could run down Mahomes. He could be a problem in the game. And if Mahomes his toe is not healthy, then maybe there is something there. But I think after two weeks having Mahomes rest, that toe is going to be pretty big.
I mean, I guess the way I put it, the way I think about it is any team can beat any team if you're going to get crazy breaks at anything or special teams plays. Other than that, though, I really just I cannot see the Chiefs losing this game.
If Brady throws jump balls like he's been throwing all year, it's going to be a route.
The thing is, it was also crazy, Like I'm and again, I was texting with my buddy, who is just screaming about the fact, you know, you're sitting on this lead. It's a pretty substantial lead at one point, and arians is still taking these huge shots downfield like all day long instead of just kind of you know, running shorter passes, chewing up the clock. It's just non stop shots downfield, regardless of the game situation. That doesn't work against the Chiefs.
The Chiefs kind of funnel everything to the middle. So again when we talk about props, and you know, I usually like the Godwin over props, and this last one I thought, really thought should have hit. As we both sort of talked about over and half receptions.
Dropped two balls in the first half, clear that had it. I mean there were numerous plays that kid. Jeez, that was bad.
He's got a lot of drops right now. You look at his career, it's like, I do know, seven drops in the playoffs or something crazy. But look, they don't they you saw with Diggs, you know, they take away. They're very good against wide receiver Spignelo, you know, and he's done well against Brady obviously, but his scheme is good. He funnels everything a little bit towards. You saw Cole Beasley on a broken leg apparently was you know, still
getting his and everything like that. They're okay that. So I think Godwin in the middle of field will be fine. But I think at the are going to continue to take these giant shots down the field. They're just not
going to have that much success against the Chiefs. And I think, really regardless, throw it all out, like what to beat the Chiefs, you have to make it so that there is a we've talked about it, a zero percent chance that Patrick Mahomes can beat you with anything, you know, more than thirty seconds left, because if you if you leave that, that's done. I mean, Tyreek Hill can take a slant, you know, eighty five yards or whatever,
and just they're they're two goods. So for me, there's no I mean, I'm waiting if it comes down to three at DraftKings again, that's one of the few books that's still at three and a half right now. If it comes down to three, I'm going to bet it because I think the Chiefs are gonna win. I may sprinkle on the Chief's money line, which again that is a little more favorable. It's minus one sixty seven. The
consensus line is one seventy William Hills one seventy. So maybe I don't know, but yeah, it's it's you know, there's no real value on either side, like this is the super Bowl at this point. They know what they're doing. Yeah, and the total I don't know, man, I can tell you again that I'm I'm I don't care how sharp it might be. I'm not betting unders, like, there's no way I'm betting under. Yeah, there's not.
The not the look.
I had someone on my show today say get me to sixty, and I might listen to an under, but not. I'm not listening to the under until you get me to sixty. Yeah, and I think that's really possible. I look, this is how I'm going to approach this. I am going to have a laundry list of props going. Yes, I'm I'm just gonna watch this game for who wins. I'm gonna hope for Tom Brady. I'm not sweating this out where I gotta worry about two Hall of Fame quarterbacks going up and down the field and again on
that on somewhat questionable defenses. I don't want to worry about turnovers changing games. I don't want to worry about on side kicks and missed extra points. I don't want to I don't want to worry about fluky stuff. I just want to line up receptions, touchdowns, coin flips, national anthem. I I just want to get all crazy with prop bets, and that would be my recommendation to everyone here because the one thing that I saw on Twitter last night
from the bookmakers here in Las Vegas. What they were reporting is that they were dumbfounded at the crickets they heard. When the line went up, it didn't move. There weren't big bets. Circus Sports in Vegas had one hundred thousand dollars limit, and people were betting on the money lines.
They were not touching the total, the sides of the totals.
It was just chiefs win, here's one hundred grand bucks win, here's one hundred grand not worrying about the point spreads, not worrying about And I think that's pretty much the smartest way to approach this.
If you're going to bet a side, just bet the team to win, don't worry about the points spread.
Yeah, that's fair. And again you talked about it. At this point, everybody knows props are really how to best enjoy the Super Bowl. And again we've had, you know, props have been whatever so far in the playoffs. The last two Super Bowls have been really really problem for me from my bood perspective. Yeah, I know. So let's hope that we crushed it. Now we're going to be doing another podcast where we're going to talk about props. You'll talk about it of course on The Daily Juice
we're talking about how to maybe mix the two. And then again I will give you details on this, but Matt and I are going to be doing a live stream on Super Bowl Sunday. We're gonna have a ton of stuff. We're also going to be giving away some incredible prizes. I'm not gonna tell you what they are right now, but they're going to be incredible, I promise you. That's at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros. We will give you more information on that, but until then, yeah,
I agree. I mean, whatever, man, you want to bet. I'm telling you, if gun to my head, I am taking the Chiefs minus three, and even at minus three and a half, I'd probably just take them because I can tell you there is no number right now, like you know, short of seven where I would take the Bucks because I just can't. I'd go over the fifty six and a half gun to my head if I had ten, and I'd take the Chiefs on the money line. But I'm not running out there to do any of that.
You know, I feel like you probably feel roughly the same on both.
Entirely exactly the same.
I mean, if I think this is a game, it's it's hard to bet against Tom Brady, but it's even more hard to bet against this chief team with Patrick Mahomes, just given the arm talent, given the offensive game plan, and given the weapons that they've got. You're right the way it happens, patrick Mahomes gets hurt. Yes, if Mahomes gets hurt, the whole world comes undone, right, And not to say that if you bet the Bucks, you're banking
on a Mahomes injury, but you kind of are. I mean that's kind of the thing that you you're expecting him to have something significant happen in the football game to him, and hopefully no more. If you bet the Chiefs, hopefully you aren't going to see you know, any more fourth than one option runs with better Mahomes. Let's not ever see that again.
Yeah, if you're a Chief backer, I agree with that. And again another big point is you don't you don't have to run to bet this. I mean, I think part of doing it right now is to give our kind of immediate reaction to the line. But I think whatever our immediate reaction is, like, it's not gonna You have seen the point total move, you know, from the very first time that they opened it down a point. I think it was fifty seven and a half when it first open down a point. But again, it's really
just not gonna be much at this point. You're right between three, three and a half maybe, but I think it's gonna mostly stick at three for where it is. It's kind of you said fifty six and a half. It's gonna be around their money line, safe thing. So take your time, enjoy it, do as much reachars as you can. Better. Yet, if you don't want to bet it, use the props, use our what what is our prop Matt, you talked about it. What's our prop bet cheat? Sheat?
What's the cop prop bet cheat sheet?
Yes, okay, don't on that because even that needs to be done through an algorithm. It's going to take some time for that to populate through around different players playing and injury reports, and there's a lot of things. I mean, it's this this week is a really good week. Just to get yourself situated, like, start looking at the props. You're probably gonna look And also I tried doing this sometimes if you got extra time, make your own prop bets and then match them up with the book. So like,
how many numbers? How many touchdowns do you expect Tom Brady to throw? What's the number? Is it two and a half if it's two and a half? What I think it is right now at DraftKings it's two and a half at plus one fifty? Right likelihood Ay throwing two or more touchdowns or two and a half touchdowns? Three touchdowns probably pretty good, right for plus money? Not a bad place to be. How many for Mahomes? Is gonna be three to using me three and a half
for Patrick Mahomes? How many rushing yards for Clyde Edwards Hilaire. If you agree with me that they're just gonna scrap the run and throw the whole time, maybe you're betting the under on Clyde Edwards Hilaire rushing, So like, make your own and then match it up once it comes out, or even still, go and check out the books that dot props up and kind of see where your number is versus where their number is, and that can help
you make these wages on prop bets. And look, the majority of people are gonna make ten, fifteen, twenty five buck bets on the props.
They're gonna take your business all day long.
So if you have a couple of hundred dollars and that's what you're gonna betting on the super Bowl, rather than putting it down on one side or the other, it's a whole lot more fun to sprinkle that around.
Yeah, that's a good point. That is a really good point. And again I probably started doing that, I mean certainly last year, but two years ago, you know, I went out to Vegas and I did prop bets. Are there's so much fun, especially in the Super Bowl in.
Line when you came here, Yeah, oh yeah, did did they limit you to two bets at a time?
Yep?
That's the worst I know.
It's it's actually comical to watch it, if you ever. It's like a people watching experiment because you have this line of like seventy five fifty plus year old white dudes yea, all like looking like something out of the movie Casino, and they're all in line and they all got these big, huge stack of stuff, and they walk up and they make their two bets and they go back to the end of the line and they make their two bets and walk back to the end of the line.
I did it, thankfully, with like ten friends, so we all sort of like there was like a bunch of us going.
Oh, that's good. So you all get to bet too, exactly exactly what I do.
That's how we did it. But thankfully now i've draftings. But again, yeah, that really is the best way to do it. And we're gonna have a ton of prop bet information. There's a ton on betting pros that prop bet cheat cheo. But again, you're right, wait on that, wait for all the information that you can. In the meantime. Oh boy, it's gonna be fun. Matt, Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes. It's it's been a crazy season. It's a good way to end it. So we'll be there for you again.
Didn't ask me the one important.
Question, though, what's your one important question?
You didn't ask Peo about home field?
Oh, I get you're right, My apologies.
Didn't ask me about home field.
What's what's the impact?
Matt means nothing and nothing.
I agree with you, but say why you think.
That, because if they're going to have seven five hundred fans there. They're all going to be Tampa Bay fans. Technically, the Chiefs are going to send their own fans. There's gonna be Chief fans there, So like, what's the maximum number of people are going to be there?
Sixteen thousand? Are they all going to be on one side?
No, it's just the typical audience for a Super Bowl is pretty muted anyway because it's a lot of corporate windings.
Corporate tickets are going for like twenty thousand dollars a piece at this point, Like I just read it's going to be no corporate so go ahead.
Zero. They shouldn't be on the secondary market, by the way, it shouldn't be. They shouldn't have them. But whatever, fine.
That people are going to get the tickets and sell them. But I think there is absolutely no advantage other than sleeping in your own bed.
Right.
But again, the other thing to sort of talk about is, you know, it's the Super Bowl is always kind of its own animal, regardless of where it is, Like of course, being home, you're not having that. The Chiefs are gonna fly there right the day before the game, right, I mean, this is gonna be like a normal other than the fact that the Super Bowl, you don't have the usual like Super Bowl two weeks of you know, stuff that's going on.
Oh, it's a huge deal that there's no radio row, there's no parties, there's none of that. Nothing like that is happening. And that's why again to go back to the Bucks run for a second, with their three games that they've won on the road. Yes, it's impressive as the first team since the twenty ten Packers to do it, but it's not that impressive to me because they did it with no.
Fans in stands. Yeah, you're just playing on a quiet field.
And yeah there were fans there in Green Bay, and yep, there were banging signs like crazy and they're making some noise. So it definitely was a typical. But it wasn't sixty thousand at Lambeau, right, It wasn't your typical screaming, you know, making your head hurt type of crowd at Lambeau Field. From it's normally pretty calm anyway, in the Super Bowl, it's going to be even more calm and without the pomp and circumstance, without all the hoop law that normally goes into it.
I mean, what's what's media day going to be? Like nothing, They're not having a media day.
It's virtual like all that stuff, no crazy people ever with marriage proposals and all the nuts stuff with Tom Brady crying about his father like he does every time, Like that stuff's gone. That stuff's not going to be there. So I think it's a significant deal that the distraction potential is not likely for the Casey Chiefs.
I mean for me, frankly, the Chiefs won the Super Bowl last year. Brady's been to you know, a million of them, this is tenth one or whatever. It doesn't matter at this point regardless, especially for these teams. I mean maybe with the Bucks, because.
I think it's the deal for the Bucks, by the way, not to have any of that.
I really do you think it's better?
Yeah?
Or I think it's better for them to just turn like a normal football game. I think it's better than that. You don't act like it's the super Bowl. I think it's a big I think it's a bigger deal. I think it's a big deal actually of the Bucks, who have a bunch of guys who can get caught up in that moment, young guys who had never been there before. You know, for Brady and Gronk, I don't think it matters.
But I think for Godwin and for Tyler Johnson and the guys who are young in their careers who have never seen this before, I think all that media could really flip them on their heads. On a media day or then multiple media days, appearances and talking every morning. It's normally Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, it's Monday night for the media night, and then Tuesday they talk again, then Wednesday they talk again, and then they stop talking to the media.
They're not going to have any of that.
So I think for the young guys for the Bucks and think that is a pretty big break for them in this game.
So the impact is more of the fact that it's the pandemic and we don't have the normal radio sort of stuff, not as much the home field.
Yeah, I think it's much less distractions going this time around. And I think if you're the Tampa Bay Bucks, you'd rather have the Chiefs be distracted. You'd rather have that it's better for you, But it's worse because the Chiefs, just as you mentioned, will fly in. Two days before the game, went through a couple of workouts on the field and then go and that's bad news.
Yeah, no, I agree, I agree with you. The home field means not. I mean, it's a great story, but if there were ever a year to have the home field for the super Bowl, this is not the year.
This is.
This is not I mean, it's good for Patrick Mahomes, of course, but certainly would have worked way more in their favor had there been real fans and all that sort of stuff. But anyway, we got a long time, long time to think about this. But again, focus on the player props. That's where all the fun is. So we'll be back again next week. We'll do a player prop episode because again there's a lot of them are out already anyway, so we'll be able to talk about
them a little earlier than usual. And again we'll do a live stream on our YouTube channel, YouTube dot com slash Benning Presence and.
They have before we go real quick.
Yeah, so you can't see this stamp, but I'm wearing the Daily Juice T shirt. Yes, you guys are dming me and asking me how to buy these and how to buy the hoodies.
Okay.
Fantasypros dot Com slash shot correct, Fantasypros dot Com slash shop.
You can't see me. Hold on, I'm gonna move my uh my microphone here. But I'm wearing a Fantasy Pros nice right now. Of course as we do it that they got it.
So that stuff.
If you're asking me, I'm getting like messages all the time like what hoody, we're gonna get it.
What T shirt? We're gonna get it. That's where you go and get it, guys.
Oh yeah, absolutely. Also, Betting Pros hats are new, as the hats now their hats for Betting Pros. I don't think the Juice hats yet.
I think BP's BP hats are cool.
Don't worry, but we're coming. We're coming tons of stuff. Don't worry. More and more every day.
You know that.
Every time we add something, somebody asks me for something else. Right, yeah, just keep now I've gotten I've got people saying they want long T shirts, long sleeve T shirt.
Yes, yes, I'm gonna They're like where.
And now the big boys are all mad because Triple X is the best. Is the biggest size.
We go to.
They need bigger.
I'm like, dude, like what, like, I.
Mean bigger than Triple X.
They said they be big and tall.
I was like, I don't do any of this stuff, guys, but like Triple X is pretty damn big, and I'm sorry I'm not in charge of this, but damn.
All right, I'll see if we can get giant size. Don't worry, I'm on it. I'll see what the boys can do back there. But yeah, we're adding stuff again, Fantasypros dot Com, slash Shop, plenty of stuff there, and again We're going to be adding new stuff more and more all the time. But Matt, anything you get, anytime people ask you about it, just send it my way. I'll see what I can do to get things up and running. And they are. I was looking at the numbers today. They are some of our Daily Juice are
definitely some of our best sellers. So it's nice to see that our listeners are really coming out to support. All Right, Anyway, we'll be back next week talking about player props again. Don't forget YouTube dot com slash Betting pro subscribe so you don't miss it. We'll be talking about props big day on the Super Bowl, for sure. You're going to want tune into that. Until then, just relax, enjoy it, don't rush to bet anything or anything like that.
Take your time, survey the props, and we'll talk to you next week.