Hey there, everybody. Welcome to the Super Bowl edition of the Betting Pros NFL Podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. This is it the biggest gambling event of the year, The Super Bowl is here. It's an event so big that we're bringing on not just one, but two guests. You love them both. I mildly tolerate them both. They are Sean Green, co creator and co host of the Sports Gambling Podcast, and Andrew Cayley,
a senior publishing editor over at Covers. Gentlemen, how are you.
I'm doing great, man, Thanks for having me on.
I'm really excited to be here.
Yeah, this is where you guys are gonna have to be really careful because you're just gonna both you're There are gonna be periods where you guys are just gonna sit there in silence because Andrew's gonna be like, oh, I think Sean's gonna talk, and so it's gonna be like, I think Andrew's gonna talk. So it's fine, it doesn't matter. You guys can just talk. Don't even worry about it.
So here's how things are gonna go today. We're gonna break down the game itself with the spread and the over under, and then we're gonna move to some props, which is really where things get crazy in the Super Bowl. Is that good with you, guys? Sean? Is that good with you? Yeah slock it in, Andrew? Is that good with you?
That's that's awesome with me. Let's not hold anything back.
All right, it's the last game of the season. Can't hold anything all right? Good? But before we get into it, uh, you guys have one day or maybe less by the time you're listening to this to enter our January giveaway. It is a signed Michael Thomas Saints helmet given away by our good friends over at Pristine Auction. You have to get your entry in by January thirty first, that
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have a ton of great sports and other memorabilia. It is addicting. You will find something that you love and it will almost certainly be at an amazing price. And when you go there, don't forget to use our promo code Betting Pros. You get a free five dollars vouch or instantly. All right, gentlemen, the spread has stayed pretty consistent here throughout the week. The Chiefs are laying one and a half. The total has climbed since it first opened, but I kind of expected it to keep going as
the public was pounding it. It's kind of settled right now at fifty four and a half. We'll let Sean start us off here on the games, Andrew you can start us off first on the prop. So, Sean, what's your reaction here? How are you breaking down this spread and the total?
Yeah, I mean I didn't think the spread would ever get up to three points because I think, you know, everyone would kind of hammer the forty nine ers if it got up to three points. I instinctively just look to the under. In general, I'm gonna be on the under in this game. I'm I'm like you, I'm going to wait and see if it gets bet up anymore. I was hoping to get it like maybe fifty six, but even fifty four and a half, I'm on the under. I'm on the Chiefs as well. I see it like
thirty one twenty one. I think it's just Andy Reid's time. More than anything, it's just Andy Reid's time. He leads NFL coaches for the amount of wins in the regular season amount of playoff wins without winning a championship. I think this year is the year he kind of gets
the monkey off his back. He looks amazing in a wine shirt down in Miami there, and really, matchup wise, you could make a great case for the forty nine ers, And normally I would lean to a team like the forty nine ers, physical defense, able to run the ball, control the clock. I just think Patrick Mahomes. I'm not gonna go against Patrick Mahomes here. He really is the I mean, you know it sounds cliche, but I think
he's enough to carry this team. And we'll get into it in the props as far as the style of the game. But I really think the Chiefs at the end of the day will be able to move the ball and get more points than the forty nine ers, and that's what matters now.
Andrew, you're a noted hater of Hawaiian shirts, So how do you feel here about the Chiefs slaying one and a half in the total at fifty four and a half.
I was a little surprised, actually, the number like a bunch of places that opened at a pick and quickly
moved to the one and a half. The way that the Niners beat up on the Packers, though I was really thinking, like, geez, maybe they're gonna make the Niners the favorites here, just the way that the Chiefs have kind of like fallen behind a bit in games and the competition, not that the Niners competition was much better, but the playing the Titans in the not taking anything away from the Titans, but very one dimensional, and once the Chiefs got up in that game, you never really
felt like the Titans were going to be able to come back. So it sounds like the early money in Vegas too, is saying that the books are going to need the Chiefs, and it can be usually an early indicator like that we're going to see a little more public money. Obviously in the Super Bowl, you're going to see most of the public money come in on a Friday, a Saturday, and a Sunday before the game, so there
still could be a bit of movement. I'm going to take the Chiefs now because I think the Chiefs are the more public team heading into the game, so I expected to maybe get up to two. I've seen two at a couple of dirty offshores there, and but I'll probably jump on the Chiefs right now. I agree with Sean.
I think Patrick Mahomes is just too We're seeing this incredible run that he's doing right now, eight touchdowns, no interceptions in the playoffs, and just they have so many talented weapons at his disposal that I know that I don't want to take anything away from the Niners defense. And usually when two teams meet up like this, the
great offense versus the great defense. Yeah, yeah, the Chiefs defenses is okay at least against the pass, and the Niners offense is one of the highest scoring in the league, so you can't really like count them out. But this is really all about the offense versus that the Chiefs offense versus that Niners defense. And I'm agreeing with Sean. I can't, I can't not back Mahomes in this spot. And I think Andy Reid's gonna come up with a
good game play. Not that Chana Hand won't either, but I like I'm gonna lay that money with the Chiefs. As for the total, it's the number seems about right. I think that's another number. Like you said, like, there's gonna be a lot of public over money heading into the heading into the weekend here. So if you like the over get it now. But also, like Sean, I hate,
I hate agreeing to this done. But I'm gonna be on the under a Well, I see a game something like that, like a twenty eight to twenty one kind of game.
Yeah, So here's here's how I'm coming at it. I don't really disagree, unfortunately, with anything you guys have said. I know it would make for a better podcasts. You guys are not coming in. I will say this, when I look at the game, I do think again, and I'm not sure you guys are really disagree with this part of it. I think the forty nine ers are probably overall a better team, I think with their defense fully healthy, when you have you know, a Bosa being
able to rush the quarterback. With Ford, you have Kwan Alexander and they're able to stop the run. You have tart back since they've been at full health. They're just a really, really really scary unit. And the offense, you know, people, you know, it's like people are taking a negative from the fact that Garoppolo through eight times, like oh, Shannon doesn't like Garoppolo, or he thinks they just didn't have to they could run the ball all the entire time.
I think, Yeah, Garoppolo obviously has certainly has the potential to have a terrible game, right. I mean, we've seen we've certainly seen him do stuff where he's he's thrown a bad interception or two. And even against the Vikings you know where they dominated right early on, he threw that bad pick, so you could see that. But overall, realistically, when I see these teams match up, it strikes me
as the forty nine ers have the better team. But you both have said it, and that is Patrick Holmes, and it's just I can't do it like I can't pull the trigger on betting. I probably I might be the only person in the United States who's not going to bet on the actual spread in the in the Super Bowl.
Because right I think I might not either.
Oh all right, you and I can have a party together then.
And I thought about not betting the spread, but then I realized the podcast listeners would just make fun of me, and so I got peer pressure into betting the spread. But yeah, again, I feel better about some of these props than I do the actual side.
And again at super Bowl super Bowls of one day, where like, props are totally fine, Like you know, lead with all the props, and I love props generally speaking, because as you know, I do fantasy stuff and I project each player. So with that, I'm really like I focus a lot on the props. But this is a game between just it's it's totally teams. I mean, the Chiefs have won eight games in a row. You've got
the whole Andy reidoff a by thing. You know, You've got the forty nine ers who get to the quarterback without blitzing, as well as anyone against a quarterback that sacked at the lowest rate in the league. You know, it's just really one of these games. You're like, I don't know as for the total. By the way, I have bet the under. I believe on the last two
Chiefs playoff games that has not gone well. And for this I agree now when I first looked at it and we analyze it, when the lines first broke me and Rich Ryan, I think it opened at fifty two and a half and at that point I was like, there's no way I'm taking the under on fifty two and a half. Just you know, it struck me. It's a gut reaction. It was sort of like, you know,
it's gonna climb. But in the end, now that it's sitting at fifty four and a half, like I'm like, man, if I'm really thinking about this, the value is clearly on the under right now, Like it's very clearly on the under. But I can't do it because you know, you know, with Mahomes, there just is nothing. I mean,
he can he can just go crazy. So I guess the last thing I'll ask is, you know, the public, because this is the only game of the year where probably the sharp betters have a pretty minimal impact, right, I mean, there's so much public money coming in, and the public money is enough to kind of move these lines. There's gonna be a ton of public money probably that comes in what Sunday, like Sunday.
Morning, Sunday.
Do you think that the total is going to continue to grow up then? I mean it's gonna be at fifty five fifty five and a half because everybody, you know, the public glove's over. So yeah, is this gonna go up to fifty five fifty five and a half If you like the over, should you be taking it now?
I think so because I'm there's gonna be a lot of You're gonna see a lot of chiefs over parlays as well, too, Like people can't say no to that, to that parlay there, even though I said, I'll say right now, stay away, but it's there. It's gonna come fast and furious Sunday, and it wouldn't be out of the ordinary to see that number jump up another half point or so.
Yeah. To add add to that, my dad is one of the more square vetters around, texted me, I'm going chiefs in the over, so he's I don't think he's ever bet the under. So if that's any indication I think it'll go up if it goes anywhere. But yeah, i'd like, i'd hope to get a fifty six, but I'm not you know, I'd be shocked if it goes down. That's what i'd say.
Yeah, Well, so is there any other bet out of curiosity before we kind of you know, get into the player prop or on the game props. Is there any part of it? Like I kind of could see this coming out and at some point Mahomes is going to be unleashed, right, at some point he's gonna go nuts. But we've seen him come out a little flat. I mean against the Titans. It's not like, you know, they came in from behind. Against the Texans, they were obviously
getting blown out completely. I could see a bet on the forty nine ers, like in the first quarter or maybe even in the first half or something like that. So if I'm gonna bet the spread, I could see doing something like that, right, But I think on the overall total, Man, this is a great game. It's gonna be an exciting game.
It's really hard to give a lean because I can see it happening so many different like the outcome coming from so many different ways. So it's kind of difficult, it's gonna be a lot of fun.
Yeah, So basically we've done a great job of basically being like, I don't know, I guess Patrick Mahomes is great, but honestly, that is you know, to see this spread like this, it is the matchup that everybody kind of wanted by the time, you know, the Ravens were out.
It's what we're gonna get. It's really gonna be interesting because the last time you saw this, you know, not to undersell the forty nine ers offense, which is very, very good in its own right, but the last time you saw this really really elite defensive team against what looks like this unstoppable offense, you know, you wound up with the Seahawks just absolutely destroying the prodcast in that game. And that was a game too where the spread was
basically a pick them right. It was pretty close there. So hopefully we don't see a repeat of that and it's a good game all the way through. But if not, don't worry about it, because we're gonna have some player props to talk about.
Now.
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let's move on here to some prop bets. As everyone knows, we use the Betting Pros consensus lines for these spreads and over unders today and throughout the season, we're gonna do the same thing here for prop bets. You can find consensus player props over at Bettingpros dot com slash props, and you can find consensus game props over at Bettingpros dot com slash game props. So we'll talk about some of our favorite plays. I'll give some of my thoughts.
But Andrew Sean got to start off the spread and the total, So why don't you start us off with game player prop whatever you want to talk about.
Should we start with something before the game actually starts and go with the anthem?
Oh boy, do you have an anthem call?
We're going with the over on the anthem again this year, even though the numbers started off at like one to nineteen and a half at some places, and I'm seeing it as high as one twenty four and a half with one hundred and twenty four seconds left, so two minutes and four point five seconds. Had a little controversy last year with Gladys Knights with her annunciation of the word brave and uh so that was very exciting. A lot of books, I think most most books I think
ended up paying both ways last year. So it's gonna be interesting. Levado, I think, is gonna melk it and her last performance at the at the McGregor fight that that went way over. I just the the juice is on the over still. It's a tough one. But this is the one of the most fun props I have every year. Everyone's everyone's into it right away and we all sit there, sit around timing it ourselves and watching
all I think. I think she uh and we're all screaming the teeth over over, over and and and we're gonna go We're gonna start with an over on the anthem. One. Well, I'm seeing one twenty four and a half right now, I'll still take the over on that.
Sean, you're a noted Demi Lovado fan. Do you have any any thoughts on that one?
Uh? Yeah, no, I mean I'm not gonna take the under on the national anthem. I did see a prop bet related to the national anthem that you would not use a mic stand at plus one forty. I like that anytime you can get you know, a dog for not using a mic stand, I'm in on that. But for my first official prep bet here, I'm gonna go to the game. We kept talking about Patrick Mahomes and I just the style of game that I see happening. I think Patrick Mahomes is going to be running the
ball a lot. In the last two playoff games he rushed for fifty three yards a piece and his total is set at thirty and a half. I love the over here on Patrick Mahomes. I think it's a I mean San Francisco is a great defensive line. If they're not disciplined with the rush lanes, He's going to be running all over the place, getting first downs, keeping drives alive. And if you look at kind of a similar team in a couple senses as far as type of offense
they run. The Arizona Cardinals really at times gave the forty nine ers, you know, they kind of struggled with them considering how much better the forty nine ers were than the Cardinals. And if you look at Actuallyler Murray's games against him, he had thirty seven yards and then he had what was the other one, sorry, thirty four and sixty seven yards against the forty nine ers. So I think, you know, the Chiefs are much better version
of that. And it just seems like in a must win game, you feel the need to scramble, pick up first downs, keep drives alive. And I think he's really going to do a lot with his legs.
So this is an interesting one for me, I'll be honest, because he's so he's obviously he's had some bigger rushing games here in the playoffs, but before that he had done it surpassed the number five times in his entire career. Right, you think of Mahomes, You're like, oh, he's got so much speed, Right, he's going to be great. He done it five times over two seasons in the game. Right, This is not something where you kind of look at it and you're like, oh, boy, this is where it's
going to be. It strikes me a little bit as when I look at it that way and I break it down, that the value strikes me on the under but I agree with you in that I wouldn't bet it. This is again one that I'm looking at and I'm sort of like, you know, the value strikes me here,
but I'm like, but it's Patrick Mahomes. And I think the biggest thing, and you brought up is the forty nine ers play zone, which actually, I mean it's kind of gonna keep Mahomes in check right when you play man the corners are turned away so they're not necessarily watching him. But I think it really is that pass rush, right,
I mean they the offensive line for the Chiefs. No offensive line at this point can stop that pass rush that's coming in with the four of you know, those guys that are really gonna get to Mahomes and he's gonna have to scramble. Now, He's gonna have plenty of times where he's just gonna kind of flick it fifty
yards downfield. But I do think that the fact that they're gonna get to him so much probably and his scrambling ability, I can't pull the trigger on the under, so I don't love the over, you know, I think the value sort of lies in the under. But the reason why i'm you know, a little caught in between them this is because I do think are going to get to him quite a bit, and I do think that's going to force him out of pocket and make
him run a little bit. So it's an interesting dot. Andrew, do you have any thoughts on that one.
I agree with you that this number has been elevated because of the way he's performed the last two weeks, which is too bad. But once again where this is the most unfun podcast ever, I agree I'm not gonna fade him, just because I think that the Niners are really going to try hard to get pressure on Mahomes with that front four and without blitzing, and that old probably as disciplined as they are and as good as they are, he's athletic enough that he's gonna be able to find some time.
Yeah. Well, because we're agreeing so much, Just to be clear, if I'm forced to choose a side here, I will go under. So there I disagree, bad job go ahead of Yeah.
One more quick note, if you look at the regular season San Francisco third as far as QB rush yards allowed, just behind the Browns and the Bengals. So kind of a rare weakness for the forty nine ers, I think. Is their ability to the QB.
Rush A good point? Yeah, no, it's it's gonna be an interesting one. And again, the guy like Mahomes, you know, I'm a big fan of the under on the QB rushing attempts. You know, if for no other reason, especially when the team is favored, not really comes to play here, but you're always gonna have the couple of kneel downs at the end maybe of the half or maybe the game. Right you'd be like, oh, man, like, what's what's Garoppolo's number?
Four?
Four and a half yards or something like that.
I think it's four and a half.
Yeah, yeah, So you know, that's an interesting one. But again, it's not a game where you necessarily expect them to win, so you can't count on the minus three yards that they're gonna get. But that is something where I always generally lean towards the under, especially whenever Rivers goes. I'll take that under half a yard. All oh yeah, but yeah, that's one of my favorites every time, but with this
one it's really really tough. Again, I would lean towards the under, but it's something where I'm probably not gonna be able to pull the trigger on for all the reasons he said. And really the answer to everything involving the Chiefs and this game is, well, it's Mahomes, So it's really hard to go against them. Andrew, why don't you go ahead? What's your next one?
Do you want me to continue with some more Mahomes as you just you do whatever you say, segue to be there, and no world, the world did your oyster going? Patrick Mahomes to throw a touchdown pass in the second quarter at minus one twenty. If you haven't heard, the Chiefs are pretty good in the second quarter. They led the league one hundred and seventy seven second quarter points this season, and like everyone has just seen forty two in those last two playoff games, and you guessed it,
it's because of Patrick Mahomes. In the regular season, fifteen hundred yards, nine point two yards per attempt, ten touchdowns, one pick, one, thirteen point five passer rating, which was his best passer racing, best passer rating of any quarter this season, and that hasn't changed to the playoffs much. Sixteen for twenty two hundred and twelve yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions, plus that crazy twenty seven yard run
in that in the AFC Championship there. Like I said before there, I think we have to give a little
credit to that Niners defense. So maybe it takes the Chiefs a little while to get going, and the defense is always a little more hyped in the Super Bowl, where the offenses are a little more subdued at the start of a game with all the with all the hype or surrounding it, and Andy Reid still as even if the run game isn't successful, he's still gonna trot that out there early on in games at least and give you at least the look of a run game every
now and then. So I think the bet that they'll get going in the second quarter and him to throw a touchdown pass there is is very very likely.
Are the odds out of curiosity to the odds if you know off the top of your head to throw the touchdown pass the same in every quarter for him?
Nope, they are not. That was I have them. The first quarter was plus one ten Okay, the third quarter was about even money, I think. No, the third quarter was also plus one, no, minus one ten, and the fourth quarter is also minus one twenty or something like that.
Got it.
So the second and fourth it's worthy most likely quarters for him to throw.
Yep, yep, no, I mean I think that makes sense. And again what I said was to the extent I like a side quote unquote I needed this. It's kind of the forty nine ers early, maybe even the under in the first quarter, but the forty nine ers maybe in the first quarter. Because I do think generally it's Super Bowl, everybody kind of gets a little bit caught up. But I feel like they could, you know, come out a little conservative. I don't. And again, but Mahomes has
gone a little nuts. They're behind the last two games. Like, oh now I have to Mahomes, you know, before that, it's sort of like, all right, let's play it straight. So that I like that call. All right, John, what do you have now?
Well, We've had a lot of sensible, reasonable bets here and now I'm gonna mix things up and go for a pretty long shot. I got it over at the betting pros. This is Matt Braida our good buddy. I think now it's plus sixteen hundred. It's a long shot for a reason, but most rushing yards a plus sixteen hundred. Here's my scenario. Here's my scenario. Most are you know, Hey, he's gonna come in there, he'll have a good game, but he's coming off a huge two hundred yard game.
Coleman I think, I mean, I still think that shoulder is going to be an issue.
If I'm shit, there's no way, there's no way that Coleman is going to have a significant role in this game. There's right way.
Yeah, so if he scores three touchdowns though it's certainly it's certainly possible.
And I love, I love all the Brita overs and Coleman unders. A lot of them are off the board right now because of the shoulder injury. I got a couple early and certainly going to play him in some like DFS lineups. But yeah, Matt Braida to have the most rushing yards at plus sixteen hundred, you know, I mean if he was forty nine ers, it's like, really, their strength is just their how the offensive line just bowls people over. It kind of doesn't matter who's running
the ball. And he just has to beat up most who maybe they're game planning around uh. And I think whoever's on San Francisco will out rush whoever's on Kansas City. So it's a long shot at plus sixteen hundred, but I think the scenario kind of makes sense.
Does the scenario include Matt Brida invending a time machine and going back to the game against the Vikings and getting not fumbling at the very end of that game, because that's my big worry here, because again against the Packers, I mean that game was over and they had two running backs and they were like, nah, most just keep going, It's all right, get four hundred yards. I was like,
Matt Brida's right there. I mean, the game's over and you know you got this only one running back and they're like, nah, nah, you're you're good man, You're good. By the way, just so you guys know, I will say separately that I have a bet. I believe it's sixteen to one on Moster to have the most rushing yards in the playoffs, And I thought it was then in the water with Derrick Henry surviving as long as he did and had big but with that two hundred
twenty yard game. We all everybody rooted for, like remostered, I think it's like one hundred and sixty nine yards. Okay, so you guys are in on that, all right, rajing to get that one. Look, I don't I really honestly, I'm teasing you a little bit. I do not hate that, really because again, sixteen to one is good, and again Amian Williams, I mean, you know, he's he's pretty much
topped out. Even when he's got all the carries at like twelve and a half carries, right, like, that's basically all he's gonna get, and the averages about four yards per carry whatever, he's probably gonna top out at fifty yards rushing. And with most art moster gets injured or most are fumbles. Who knows what they're gonna do. Right, you could see Brita sort of getting in here, and even if he busts out one long one. So I'm teasing you a little bit, you know, but crazy, I
don't know, But I like it. Yeah, I mean I certainly like it. I mean not as much as Demi Levado to go over two oh four. But you know why the way I do like that because I think every singer wants to milk it as long as possible, but right, totally, all right, all right, Andrew, what else you got.
Well, I'm gonna make you feel good here, and we're gonna go with We're gonna go with Moster to go over his rushing total here of well, see, let me check on betting pros O. I have it. I got it in at seventy one and a half. I was on a yeah last week with a guy who's a Niners fan, and he got it at sixty point five.
When it first hit the mort it's seventy seven and a half.
Now seventy seven and a half. Now I'm betting pros, so I still probably take the over.
It's gonna be one hundred and sixty nine yards, don't worry about it.
But we're getting to the point now where maybe the Unders getting a little more the side I'm gonna lean with. But the Chiefs have the twenty ninth ranked rush defense still in terms of DVOA, and everything I'm hearing is that the Niners are just gonna go big as much as possible. Lots of lots of lots of running to mostar, and lots of play action the kittle sort of thing. And I think this number is win or lose for the chiefs. This is a number that moster can get to.
Yeah, I mean I again, it is the rare thing where man, it opened so much lower than it is right now at seventy seven and a half. So seventy seven and a half, honestly, you know, again one of these things where like most props, I would kind of lean towards the under on this one, but they are obviously going to try to do what they do best. Although I will give one of my props in a minute, but I you know, it strikes me as something where he is the only guy in town unless you know,
of course, Shawn's noted. You know, buddy Matt Brita gets involved in there, and they're gonna run it as much as they can, and that is where you can attack the chief. So I certainly don't hate the idea of it. Seventy seven and a half at this point for me, is a little a little too much, but.
It's getting there.
It's getting there, it's getting pushed up. How about you, Sean, what else you got?
Oh? Okay, Well, as you know, I'm a Philadelphi Eagles fan and we get we get a lot of grief for being mean fans and for cheering for injuries. So I'm going to show that I have a heart and I am going to there's a bet out there number of players carted off the field. It's said, it's said at a half, and I love the under at minus one forty. I think it's a super Bowl. I think if you get if you get banged up, whatever it is, they're gonna do whatever it takes to kind of walk off.
No one wants to be carted off from the super Bowl. And again, you're cheering against injuries. You're just cheering for everyone to have a nice, safe, super Bowl and nothing really bad to happen. So you feel like you're on the right side of karma. So give me under a half for players carted off the field at minus one forty.
I mean, here's the best part of that one is that you're first of all, you're constantly engaged, right because every single play you're like, come on, no injuries. Every time you get down, you're just on the player's side. Somebody goes down, they're like, oh, they look a little bit hurt. You're just totally rooting for them on either side. Not no, So you're doing it in the Philadelphia Eagles when you're like, get up, man, what are you doing?
I'm doing it like the caring, like we care about you. It's okay, you can do it. You're a strong guy. Go ahead and get up there. So that's a crazy bet, but it is. I don't know what people did in the Super Bowl before prop bets, because if you can't root for people to not get injured, then what's at the point of watching me games? At this point? All right, Andrew, what do you have next?
Next?
We're gonna go with Travis Kelce's longest reception over twenty and a half yards. This was one of the first prop bets that jumped off the board to me when I first started hitting the board last week. There I just I really really like this matchup for him. He's he's a really smart tight end. Not only is he super talented, he's really smart. And as we've mentioned that, the Niners play zone and he's gonna be able to
sit down in those pockets and find that space. And then he's just as tough to tackle as anyone in the league. He led the team and most people will think of Tyreek Hill as is the big threat guy, but he actually led the team with twenty plus yard receptions this year and he's had four twenty plus yard receptions in the playoffs, and I think he's just and he's proven that he can do it against these top defenses.
He's faced five top ten teams in terms of passing dv Away, including the Hats who were the top, and the average six and a half receptions and seventy yards per game, and had a reception of twenty yards for more in three of those and one of those games that he didn't, Mahomes wasn't the even of his quarterback. So he's a very capable guy. And I just think down the stretch, the Niners actually did have some trouble
with tight ends in weeks thirteen, fourteen, and sixteen. They faced just like okay tight ends Mark Andrews, Jared Cook, Tyler Higbee, and they allowed them to combine for two hundred and two hundred and twenty four yards and fourteen receptions. That's an average of fifteen point yards yards per catch, and all of them had at least one catch at twenty plus yards. So if the Chiefs are moving the ball at all. I think Kelsey to have a reception over twenty half yards is a good bet.
Okay, yeah, I don't hate that. I definitely don't hate that. There are gonna be a lot of big plays, and certainly Kelsey is one of the guys to get in on it. I'm gonna throw one out here because it was the first one I bet when I sort of looked at this one, and it's a little creative, and it is the number of players to throw a touchdown pass and that is over two and a half because
you have to assume, of course that Garoppolo. Of course, this does mean Garoppolo has to throw on so that is a little yeah in the end.
Down.
But look, these are two of the most creative play callers in the game, right with Reid and Shanahan. You know they're gonna pull out all the stops. Last game of the season, can hold anything back. As we said, it's at plus one twenty four. You know you've seen Emmanuel Sanders do it, you know before, and he's certainly capable of throwing the ball. I just think there's gonna
be some crazy trick play. It's plus money obviously, so the odds are not in its favor, but it is something and you know, I like rooting for creativity, you know what I mean. It's something where where you can definitely see them go or fake punt or something like that. So for me, I'm going over two and a half touchdown passes at plus one twenty four.
You're up shown all right, Well man, there's so much. There's so many.
I know you're you're gonna have to narrow it down here. I'm gonna how about this. I'll give you, guys two more eaches that go okay, why are right? Seven more? Do seven more? Do as many as you want? How about that? I could be here until I cut you off.
Here's what I like. And again it kind of goes to the game script that I see the game going. And in general, it's nice when you can bet props where you can see them going, either if the Chiefs win or if the forty nine ers win. Right, So, I think one of the things the Chiefs are gonna do to kind of counterbalance the pass rush is get the screen game involved early and often. I think Damian Williams is gonna have a big day as far as receiving yards right now over at betting pros his line
is set at twenty nine and a half. I'll take the over on that minus one twelve. It just seems like that's a great way to offset a crazy pass rush. Is the screen game or checking down the receivers? I think checking out of the running back. I think Kelsey
and the running back, you know, Damian Williams. I think they're gonna have a lot of kind of easy yards underneath because I think the forty nine ers are gonna do everything they can to stop, you know, any sort of crazy, big play that knocks them out of the game. So yeah, I love Damian Williams over receiving yards of twenty nine and a half.
Yeah, I really like that one. Honestly. When I looked at this, that's one of the first things I looked at too, and I was like, what are his receptions? You know, it's four and a half. You know that that's a big number, But the fact that it's set there shows that obviously there's an expectation that Williams is certainly going to be getting a lot of work in the passing game. So I certainly don't hate that one, all right, Andrew go ahead. I'm not gonna let you
guys the two more you guys were disappointed. You can you got it, just keep going, what do you got.
I'm gonna speak to Deshawn's idea of the game, the way the game is gonna end up. And this is when I like, if the game is close, which is what I think, And that's Scaroppolo to go over twenty nine and a half pass attempts, and I know he hasn't done that much lately, and I know there's no way that Kyle Shanahan has him throwing the ball thirty plus times in his game plan. But those were blowout wins, obviously, and when you look deeper into it, he threw thirty
plus passes seven times in the regular season. Two of those came in losses to the Seahawks and Falcons. The other five came by wins of four points, thirteen points, three points, ten points, and two points. And that ten point one was that crazy Cardinals one where they fumbled on the last play and I had a terrible, bad beat and I screamed a lot of stuff in the TV.
But either way, it's the point being is that Greppaa has clearly thrown the ball in those close games, and I think this is going to be a closest game, So I'm betting him to go over twenty nine and a half pass attempts.
So I do like that one actually, and I bet one that's similar to it and pretty correlated, and that is over nineteen and a half completions, right, because I think I agree with you completely, and again, they're gonna need points, they're gonna need to throw, They're gonna get creative here, and you know, if he is going to throw that much, I think that he will be able to complete nineteen and a half if he's going to go over there anyway, So I think they're pretty correlated.
But I also think for the most part, you know, they're not gonna go Shannan is not gonna go crazy. They will go deep when they need to go deep. He can, he can take their shots. But for the most part, I think it's gonna be a lot of, you know, high percentage completions, trying to keep the ball moving using them play action pass and stuff like that.
So I'm with you on that one. For me, the the in terms of his past attempts and stuff like that, I actually slightly prefer the pass completions at over nineteen and a half. But yeah, I'm with you sort of in that line of thinking.
All right, Sean, Yes, this is a This is a prop bet I play every year since I found out about it, maybe like six years ago when we started really diving deep into the into the prop bet market here, and that is to play both quarterbacks their first passing complete. So right now you can take Mahomes plus one sixty five first passing complete, Garoppolo plus one ninety five right now,
first passing complete. I play them blind every year. You can usually wait because people will think like, oh, yeah, you know they're good, They're gonna give them an easy pass. But it's the super Bowl, it's they've been they haven't played in two weeks. There's so much pressure. Guys are overthinking it. Even in like shootout games, a lot of times their first pass will be in complete. They're out of sink, they're in a new stadium, weird lighting, the
whole thing. There's probably still gonna be smoke on the field. So there's a lot of reasons, but really it's just kind of one of those evy bets where if you play both of them, one of them is probably gonna hit. There's a chance you could hit both if you're at a shot that lets you parlay props, I would I would sprinkle a little on that as well. Last year
both hit both Golf and Brady first passing complete. And you have two quarterbacks who've never played in the Super Bowl before, so I really like both of them first passing complete.
So I just want to make sure you understand before you push that bet, like, that's a bet against Patrick Walmes, you know, yeah, I know. I thought we don't do that. I thought we don't do that at all.
Now it's one of the few I have also covered in his interception, so if they intercept, it counts as as noncomplete as well, so you're covered there.
Oh thank goodness. And can you imagine that If you're like, yeah, it could play past, it's like, oh, well, sorry, it was right. I would legitimately just pass out all right after? What else you got?
Okay? One I like a lot is Tyree kill over four and a half rushing yards? Like yeah, I love his ability and his total. His receiving total at betting pros right now is seventy seven and a half. I believe for the game, which is crazy for two reasons. One, you think he can go that over that in one play too, he hasn't gone over seventy two yards in each of his last seven games, so it's kind of
a weird thing. And like, you never know how many targets you're He's been very matchup dependent, so like he's had nineteen targets in the game this season and then other games he's had two, So I never know, really what you're gonna get with him. Gee, the Niners are going to do a lot of interesting things, I think when it comes to defending him. So I like this
rushing prop. Why is it so low? He has only rushed the ball ten times all season for thirty four yards with a long of five, so we're looking for him to match his long of the season. But my thinking here is all he needs is a one right, And we've talked about Andy Reid and this is his time, and he's a great offensive mind. He is two weeks to repair, and he knows his best chance of winning is putting the ball in the hands of his most
talented guys, and that's Hill. And I think he'll just cook up just one special play that'll be used at the exact right moment, and he's gonna go over that four and a half yards on one hole. Hopefully we get two rushes, but I'm betting it's only one, and I'm still taking the over.
Have you guys ever seen the movie Little Giants? Of course, yes, So what that's making me think of it what this whole super Bowl is really making me think of is, at one point, you know, the Little Giants are not doing so well, and then they go, all right, guys, what's the last thing they'd expect us to do? And one of like the little kids whose things goes are reversed to me, And that's sort of how I feel
this is gonna be going. I feel like both guys are so smart and they have so many plays in their thing that they're gonna be like, what's the last thing they think they would do? You know, now Tyreek Hill doesn't fall into that, but yeah, it's surprising. I bet you most people would be like how many rusher temps has Tyreek had on the season. They'd be like, I don't know, twenty, Like they probably like give it to him all the time and stuff like that. It's
not often and he doesn't. He doesn't go crazy with that.
So I'm worried that it's that it's I'm watching it happen and it turns out to be one of those little pop passes that everybody does now and and it'll go through. I'm gonna be really sad. So that's that's my one hesitation about it. But I still I'm still gonna go with the over.
Oh my gosh, that is absolutely right, the pop pass that they love to do, that Brady always does. Mahomes, Oh, that's a killer. All right, all right, Sean, go ahead, get us back to normalcy.
Well, all right, I don't know how kind of crazy in the little Giant strategy. Who is the last guy you expect to get the first touchdown in the Super Bowl. He's a goal line tight end. Sure, he only has one career touchdown, but I think that means he's due. Give me Blake Bell first touchdown at plus fifty five hundred. You had a touchdown in the Texans win for the Chiefs. And again, I love where you guys are heads are at, because it's where my head is at. That Shanahan and Reed.
They've had two weeks to scheme up all these interesting play calls. I could really see him being involved a little play actional on the goal line, you know, just something right there at the edge he gets in, everyone's going to be guarding Kelsey. They won't. No one will suspect Blake Bell plus fifty five hundred. It's again a huge long shot, but man, I definitely want a little action on that.
I actually love that beat. I think that's a really really no no. I think it's a really good bad because you could absolutely see them sort of gearing up to try to be like, Okay, what are they not going to be ready for right now? And just you know if they get in close and they have a fake and you know, everybody's thinking about Kelsey and stuff
like that. So yeah, and obviously fifty five hundred, you know, it's not like you got to go in there and be like, give me a grand I'm Blake Bell to you know.
And just kind of correlated. Which is interesting. If you look at the betting pros consensus for him just to score a touchdown, it's all the way down at plus eight hundred, So that to me, even that seems like they think there's an okay chance will score a touchdown, but it shoots up to plus fifty five hundred for first touchdown. That seems a pretty big disparity.
Yeah, all right, I like it. How about you Andrew go ahead.
Okay, I'm gonna start sprinkling some MVP props in here, because there's a lot I like, Like Edelman won last year and he was I actually cash pretty big on the Edelman last year, but I went in with the mindset this year. Who is the Edelman for the Chiefs.
It's nobody. I honestly don't think like you look at guys like Kelsey and Hill and right now on the MVPs on vetting prolls, I think they're around twelve to fourteen hundred ish area, and I just don't see them having a big game without Mahomes having a bigger game and then giving it to Mahomes. The longer shot on the Chiefs I like is Nicole Hardman. I think he can grab one big catch for a touchdown at one point.
And if the game is a little lower scoring, and we're kind of siding with the under here a bit, it's a little lower scoring, maybe Mahomes only throws two touchdown passes, and if Harman can return one for a touchdown as well. I really like his value there For the Niners. The Edelman bet is clearly kittle. He can easily have a big game here two touchdowns, but hopefully he hasn't scored many touchdowns ers, but he'd probably need two touchdowns or maybe one in like one hundred yards
and several catches sort of things. But I really like his value they But the other way to look at it is if the Niners win and their defense probably had a great game, and then you're looking at guys like Bosa. But there's a lot of money coming in on Bosa, like his value is starting to leave, which is which is really funny. So the other guy I'm looking at is is Richard Sherman, and he just needs
a pick and a couple of impact plays. Maybe there isn't a standout guy on the Niners offensive game, maybe they do that thing where everything's all even out. Grapple only throws like one touchdown and moster gets just one, and maybe Sherman gets an interception for a touchdown, or maybe he gets a pick and a couple of big deflections. I really like his value too. He's at plus eight thousand on the betting consensus of the betting betting Bros. Consensus right now.
Yeah, and by the way, and again we you know, we talked about it with betting Bros. Consensus, they show you a bunch of different lines, so Sherman is actually eighty five hundred and Fanning as well, it's not the consensus.
So that's a big line. Just a things with your points. Hardman. Great, it's the great point about the fact if you are going to bet an offensive player on the Chiefs other than Mahomes, and I'll explain that you should not be betting Patrick Mahomes to win MVP, even though he probably will. Hardman really is the guy that fits because of the fact that he's really the only guy unless David Williams is going to start scoring, right because of the fact
that he returns kicks. What if he returns the opening gigoff for a touchdown and then you know he catches another one in the game. You never know. With Mahomes, the odds are plus one fifteen. I mean, if you're gonna do that, just bet on the Chiefs to win the game. Like who cares about you know, the MVP, Like if you you just bet on the Chiefs to
win the game at that point. But for me that the one that I liked by the way there, which you mentioned is also Kittle, who's at plus sixteen hundred in the now, there's never been a tight end I don't think right that's won the MVP in the Super Bowl, I believe. But if the forty nine ers win the game, unless it's another one of these raheem Mooster games, and again both a defensive player at plus twenty five hundred,
that's crazy. I mean you know that, that's that's crazy a little bit at this point for kel For Kittle, he's obviously going to be the guy he needs, as you mentioned, to score the touchdown. He needs big yardage. You could easily see him just one of those crazy runs right that gets on the highlight reel where he's just trucking everybody and just refuses to go down if he does it. So that's for me, the guy who stood out to me as the guy with that I liked most at MVP of plus sixteen hun.
The other thing about Kittle two real quick is that if he like lands like one or two really emphatic blocks and it gets gets the broadcasters talking about it and the fans all sharing. But it's a it's a media vote based vote. And if and if he's just doing things like that and getting people going crazy, that's just gonna be another another thing in his favor there.
Yeah, no, I agree with that, all right, Sean. So we're we're getting a little long here. So here's the deal. I'm not going to make you pick one if you have more than one, but give give your last few that you want to get, and give as many you know you can give a few here coming in quick, give a few that you like, and then Andrew, I'll turn over to you to you know, kind of for your last word or however many you want to give. But guy, give us any easy want. But Gead, this is your time, all right.
The floor is mine, and I'm gonna use it to talk about one that's actually involved with the game directly. It's a defensive prop. Daniel Sorensen. Total tackles and tackle assists over four and a half minus one twenty. If you've watched the forty nine ers, they run the ball a ton. They love getting it to that next level. I mean, that's the whole Shanahan's scheme. Even if you think they're going to be passing a bunch, Kittle is
a big target. You look at his stats from the previous three games, Sorensen, he had five, eight and eight. He's really been I mean he almost saved that Texans game with all the plays he was making. The guy and he's on special teams as well, So this guy has a ton of opportunity to make tackles Over four and a half feels really easy. It's only minus one twenty, so I love that as kind of a normal prop. While we're going a little crazy and talking about the broadcast,
I saw one online Troy Aikman mentions his Super Bowl experience. Yes, at minus two fifty, how has Trayke been not going to bring up the fact that he's won the Super Bowl? Joe Buck's gonna set him up? Well, what is it like for when you prepare for the Super Bowl?
Minus two fifty?
Yeah, but it's pretty much that's not.
That's not that's not done correctly. That's like minus seven to fifty is the way.
Yeah, I like it. Yeah, that is that is that is not priced correctly. And for my final one, let's see the one we haven't really talked about a ton. Okay, this is an interesting one that I like. Total number of forty nine ers to have a reception. I'm gonna go under seven at minus one forty five. I'm on the same page with you, guys. I do think the forty nine ers will throw the ball more often, but even if they do, getting to eight receivers is really tough.
Like if you go and look through the game, law, yeah, they'll get a couple of receivers involved, maybe one of the running backs Kittle, but they don't. They just don't have the kind of roster where he's going to be completing the ball to eight nine different guys. So I think you're good at a push the very least. But I really like under seven on that one as well.
Actually I didn't mention that one either, but that is definitely one that I like as well. I think that that just kind of, you know, again, even though I expect kind of, you know, the forty nine ers to open up a little bit passing wise and offense, I think the number of guys to catch a reception I agree. I've already bet that one as well. So that is one of the ones that I like a lot. All right, Andrew take us out in style? What else do you have?
Let's just end with something fun. We're going with red for the color of gatorade that will be dousing the winning coach this year. There's no great analysis behind it. Michael Irvin had a little bit of insight. I don't know if you can find it on the internet from a few years ago. He talked about why red was a good one. I've always stuck with it. Red is what I'm going with.
I mean, I can't fault your logic and that and that Michael Irban said something one time that made me think about it.
So, yeah, all right, very in depth.
And Ellis and both teams have read in their jerseys, and yes, and the part I really like you, the part I really like about read there for the color is it's not going to cause an argument afterwards. I'm really you know, I don't want to have an argument with some online book or even even any sort of book or bookie with what what constitutes the color football shade? Yeah, exactly, so you avoid that conversation altogether.
Rumors going around right now that the Chiefs or the I think it's the Niners have bought up a bunch of purple Gatorade to honor Kobe, which is weird, and yeah, I don't know how to feel about it, but that's just what the Internet is telling me right now. But I still don't I'm not buying it, So we're sticking with red.
I may I may bet that one because it'll be great because I'm colorblind, So they'll dump it and I'll be like, did I win? Did I win?
What happened?
Did I win? But again, at least the good thing with that one is it something that's gonna keep you engaged the whole game, right because you're like, oh man, it's been a terrible night, but I got that Gatorade prop got a lot of that, all right, boys, that's gonna do it. This was a lot of fun, gave a lot of great props. We're rooting for no injuries, We're rooting for a long anthem, We're rooting for red Gatorade.
So there's a lot of good stuff. Reminder that everyone can find Sean at the Sports Gambling Podcast and on Twitter at Shawn T. Green. You can find Andrew's work over at covers dot com and on Twitter at covers Underscore. Kaylee, that's c a l e y guys, thanks a lot for coming on. Enjoy the Super Bowl. I hope we can do it again when the NFL starts up next season.
Awesome, thanks for having me.
Thanks again to the sponsor for today's show, bet MGM. Remember to download the bet MGM Sports app use the promo code Harris. Place a one dollar money line bet on either team to win the Super Bowl when two hundred dollars in free bets as long as either team scores a touchdown in the game. And remember that has
never not happened, So you're looking good. Don't forget to very quickly enter our Michael Thomas helmet giveaway by leaving us a review on Apple Podcasts or sitter sending a screenshot of that review to contest at Bettingpros dot com, and that contest ends at eleven to fifty nine pm on January thirty first, So go ahead and get your reviews in. Enjoy the Super Bowl. Everyone, eat wings, eat nachos, eat your better bread. Root for a long national anthem.
So my wife wins her prop bet and Andrew wins his prop bet. We'll be back next week with a special episode talking about some NFL futures and some oscar wagers. I'll catch it in
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