It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros.
Welcome in everybody to betting pros. I'm your host, Joe Piza Pierre. We got a great show for you today. We're gonna be talking a little NFL futures, some team win totals, a little overs, a little unders post free agency, with the draft looming just a few weeks away now,
which is very exciting stuff. It might be some opportunities here depending on which teams we think might be more fully formed than others or have made some really interesting offseason moves to talk about where some of those stand. And we've got our top ten favorite ones to discuss here, which teams that free agency really did impact in terms of their twenty twenty one win totals. And one of my favorite people to talk football with is one of my old pals from Sports Grid, one of my TV brothers.
You know him from Sports Grid all the time, hosting so many shows there. He does such fantasic work. You know him from Football Full Circle, from In Game Live, from Pro Football Today, he hosts college football there. He's so versatile and that's why I love him. He's also a handsome devil, and that's why you watch us over on the YouTube channel as well for Betting Pros. He's Mike Blewett. Mike, Welcome to the program, my friend. How are you today?
Yeah, buddy, fired up, I'm ready to talk to some win totals. Obviously, a lot going on in the football world, as there always is, and I'm excited to be on this pod with you. It's our first time working together in quite a while.
I know, and that's just that's a shame. It's terrible. I hate that. But that's why I said. You know why I've been talked to in a while, my good pal Mike, and I want to talk to him because you are a big time Steelers guy. I'm a big time Pats guy. We've had our fun throughout the years together, you and I. But you are so passionate about football,
so passionate about wagering. I thought you'd be a really good person to talk about some of these And you know, obviously NFL free agency this year was fast and furious. There was a lot of movement. So before you even get into the team win totals, what were some of your major takeaways from free agency that you really felt like a certain team really did change their stars, maybe potentially in some of the moves that they made, or maybe move backwards in some of the players that they lost.
Because certainly the Raiders losing offensive linemen, the Titans losing a lot of pieces. There was a lot of teams that kind of you feel like, I'm not sure where they are right now. Maybe they can fill these holes in the draft in a few weeks. But Mike, it was a lot of movement this offseason.
Yeah, I think that's fair.
And I would say from a macro perspective, one thing that people should, I think start to notice is there's a trend occurring in the NFL regarding wide receivers. And there was a thought process that there'd be a few wide receivers that would go out there and get huge money, and it was really only one guy. It was Kenny Galladay, so Jesus muth Schuster, guys like Corey Davis. Other players perhaps maybe got a little bit more, others got a lot less.
Than we anticipated.
And I think because we are seeing an influx of huge, well respect wide receiver classes in the draft, that NFL free agency is not a golden ticket for wide receivers anymore. I'm not begrudging the money that they make, and it's nothing to sneeze at, but I think we're seeing where the money is being spent on pass rushers. You mentioned
the Titans in pud dupri and an offensive lineman. We obviously had major transactions at the quarterback position that we don't always see, but offensive linemen and pass rushers is where the money was spent this year, not on wide receivers or other skill positions. With a couple of notable exceptions, particularly in New England.
And you could pay those new incoming wide receivers less and get immediate productivity out of them. I think that's what teams are seeing and the fascinating trend of these young quarterbacks were coming in and starting right away. The fact that you're paying them on that first deal still as opposed to some other teams, it allows you to surround them with all this talent. And it's not a surprise that you see the teams like Buffalo, like Kansas City.
These teams with the young quarterbacks that emerge right away are the teams that are in the dance at the end for the most part. Now you have the anomaly with Brady this year, but for the most part, this is the kind of the trend in the NFL how
you structurally spend your money. And I think you're one hundred percent right that wide receiver back to back classes coming into this league and the ones that came in last year, they're ready to play, ready to contribute from day one, and why wouldn't you want to go with those guys as opposed to overpaying somebody who's been in the league four or five years and the tread that they have on their tires and obviously the money it takes up in the cap. That being said, you also
touched on changes a quarterback. And let's start with our overunders here because over on bettingpros dot com we have our consensus wagering. So basically it takes all the different houses for all the different wagering you can make everywhere, and it condenses them down where you get kind of the consensus picks. And the consensus for the Indianapolis Coats over under right now currently is sitting at ten. That's the over under now. Last year this was an eleven
win team. Last year, this was a playoff team, like but it's also a team now, and we have to think about this in the big realm with the seventeen game schedule too. These are all kind of different prototypes here. We're kind of in uncharted territory here. The Colts added Carson Wentz, and I think, personally, if you kind of follow the path last year of taking the quarterback from the bad offensive line and Philip Rivers to the good one.
As the season went on, he got more and more comfortable, more and more confident, and all of a sudden, this was a team that kind of took off towards the end and almost upset Buffalo in Buffalo. I think Carson Wentz coming back there with Frank Reich, with this good offensive line. T Y Hilton came back in free agency too, they have Jonathan Taylor. This is a really best case scenario for Carson Wentz. To me, honestly, I'm looking at the over here on the ten and it's not because
I think they're a perfect team yet. I just feel like this is a team that might even be better with Carson Wentz than they were last year with Rivers. But how do you see the Colts offseason and this win total coming together?
So I think that's everything you said is fair. And what was unique about the Colts.
I don't know if it was.
Particularly unique, But what was interesting about the Colts last year is that I think anybody could sit there and watch the Colts and say, you know what, this is a pretty well built football team. They have decent weapons, They're built really well on both sides of the line. They're very strong both front seven defensively and a very strong offensive line. But none of us really felt like they were going to threaten anyone. I was holding Colts
tickets last year to go over. I thought that was an easy over based on what it was last year, and I was holding Colts tickets to win the division and that ended in cruel fashion in Week seventeen, with the Titans hitting an upright and making the field goal a rookie kicker of all things.
It was a cool way to lose that.
But I think they're a very well built team. I think Chris Ballard their GM has done a fantastic job of building this the way up, all the way up to where it is now.
Now.
They've lost offensive lineman and Anthony Costanzo, their long time left tackle, but they do pick at twenty one, they could conceivably look for a replacement there, and I'm with you. I thought this was the only logical place really for Wentz to go, and I think it is certainly his best opportunity to reclaim what he looked like a few years ago.
Am I bullish about it?
That's maybe a stronger term, But I feel good about him being there. I still think it's a well built team. When I look at their schedule, I get a little scared, but there's no way I would bet the Colts under I think they're too good of a team top to bottom, and I think Frank Reich's a really good coach. I think they can get there, and their favor to win the division based on the win totals now, so I
think they can get there. It just worries me because they have to play the NFC West and there's some tougher opponents in there. But they also have two cupcakes in their division, and the Texans and the Jaguars.
That's why I keep coming back to leaning the over as the cupcakes of the division, and I think that's I think Houston's going to just be in chaos this year. It's hard not to feel like that's the path that's going. And look, this is why we're talking about these early because sometimes some of these early lines are where you want to get in before the draft has before things move, if you like it. And maybe it's gonna move to ten and a half possibly if they have a really
good draft and fill some other holes. Let's talk about the Rams, another team that's brought in a change of quarterback, and it's hard not to like the change of quarterback. I've never been the biggest Jared Goff guy. I think a lot of people you know, kind of also roll their eyes whenever you say Jared Goff. And on the inverse, Mike, I think Matthew Stafford is one of the most underappreciated
quarterbacks in the NFL. He's been a really good quarterback, solid for a very long time in a situation it's been really tough in Detroit. Now you drop him here with McVeigh now, granted it's a new system for him to learn and figure out. He's got a lot of talent around him. But the Rams right now are sitting at a consensus on betting pros at ten and a half. Last year they were a ten win team, To me, this feels about the same because I do anticipate a
little bit of growing pains. I think when it's good, they're gonna look so good, and there'll be games where they go up and down a little bit. To me, the ten and a half with that half hook, I kind of lean away right now. I'm just kind of staying away from this one. Is their opportunity. The Rams in that competitive NFC West look like a team that kind of is poised to maybe get back to that kind of super Bowl level class team now that they have somebody like Stafford at the helm.
Yeah, best division football top to bottom. I think many people would agree. You know what's funny, Joe, When whenever there's a transaction of some sort in the NFL and we go to Twitter to see what the reactions are. There are times when you disagree with the consensus and you start to question whether or not you've thought this through. And there are other times when there are millions of people saying.
That what's the big deal?
Stafford sucks just like golf sucks. And I know I'm right because I disagree with them. Matt Stafford's a very good quarterback, a very talented quarterback. I think he is a really significant upgrade to Golf in terms of what they can do long term. So I like the transaction, and people get hung up on the draft picks, which hit at a fifty percent rate a little bit too much. I think they had to pay to get rid of the contract, and they did it. They washed their hands
of it. The thing that worries you about the RAMS is it's still a very competitive division. There's no easy games in here. Kyler Murray is on the on the come with the Niners, who aren't really who are picking third, but everybody knows they're not that type of team. In fact, they're not even a team that really slots into twelfth in the draft where they were. They just had major
injuries obviously at the QB position and elsewhere. But what concerns me about the Rams is the same thing that's concerned me for the.
Last few years. They have no depth.
They are extremely top heavy, but.
That's they're top heavy in the cap too, and that's the thing that you're paying Aaron Donald. You're paying those guys so much that that's that's the problem. Is you have elite level talent, but if they get hurt what happens. Where's the depth? Your one hundred percent correct. That's why I worry. That's why I stay away from the Rams.
Mike, Yeah, there's a stat that we often look at when we're analyzing salary cap of the top six, what are your top six players cost? And the Rams top six players are more expensive than any top six on any.
Franchise in the league.
So even if Aaron Donald doesn't get hurt, I'm just talking about depth through the organization. Jalen Ramsey, like, these guys are getting huge money, and if anybody goes down.
They're in a tough spot.
Even though I think they're a very good team and apples to apples, I think they can go over because they're talented, it concerns me because of their lack of depth as a team.
All right, let's talk about Tennessee's potential lack of depth too. They brought in Dupree, as you mentioned earlier, which is great because that's something they sorely needed someone to really kind of put pressure on the quarterback. But they did lose a lot of targets. I mean, you know, John Husmith, Don Gory Davis gone. You know, the offense is still going to funnel through Derek Henry. There's no doubt about that. AJ Brown is a stud I think there's no more
questions about that. Tannehills played very well, but overall, Tennessee I think is also a team that has some question marks and maybe some depth issues as well. Their number in the consensus betting pros is actually nine and a half. Last year, this was eleven win team. Now I kind
of come back to that same thing as well. You know, I kind of like the the fact that they're playing in some a division where there's some soft wins in there for them, where I think that maybe they can get to the ten and then, you know, obviously that's what I'm looking at. I don't know if they're eleven win team necessarily, even with the extra game in there. I kind of lean towards the over here with the Titans, because once again, the Titans know how to turn it on.
I think Vrabel does a terrific job, But Mike is there an argument to be made that the Titans window closed a little bit at the end of last year because this was quite a run two years in a row. Can they continue to sustaining what they've done here? Because it's been magical. But I don't know when does the Magic City kind of run out of magic?
Yeah, I think that's totally fair. Now.
I do have a lot of faith in Mike Frable. I think he's a good, aggressive coach. I think it's a relatively well coached team. But this team had a lot of issues last year, the defensive backfield, which has been a struggle for them for the last couple of years, and part of that was their lack of pass rush overall.
It's why they went out and got bud Dupree, but they paid a premium for bud Dupree was coming off an ACL injury and also a player that the Steelers felt comfortable letting walk because even though he was very productive the last year and a half prior to the ACL, the first three years of his career were not what
they had paid for in a first round pick. So the Titans are sort of paying him to be what he was for a year and a half right before his injury, and I don't necessarily know that can have the impact that they need him to have based on that price tag. They've also, like you said, they lost John who they lost Cory Davis they bring in Josh Reynolds, who I think is kind of an underrated weapon.
But it's a very top heavy.
I keep using this term team in terms of touches, right, this is an AJ Brown Derrick Henry team, a very concentrated offense.
If you were so, I would have the Colts winning this division. I had it last year and I was wrong.
I would have the Colts winning that division again. Keep in mind they also will be playing the NFC West, so some tough games in there. This one's a little closer for me. For the Titans to get to ten a ten and seven season, we're gonna have to spend some time getting used to this because I know it's ten and seven a great record.
I don't know Sam's like I think it is.
I think the NFL is pretty good. I mean yeah, I think anytime you win double digits, even with the extra game in the NFL, you've done something.
I think he's accomplished something, and I think that's the type of team they are. I think they're pretty good. I think they probably do get to ten and seven, But when it comes to making a wager like that, do I think they'll clear it easily? Eleven to twelve win team. I don't see them as being that.
I agree with you. I think I have more confident in the completeness of the Colts than I am in the high end low end of the Tennessee Titans. Right now, I think they're in a weird spot, especially after last year's disappointing playoff finish for them. The Saints another team too. Nine is the number for them, no more Drew Brees. So obviously you knew this was going to take a hit. Last year they were a twelve win team even with Drew Brees on the shelf. The question is where do
we put the Saints now? This division is certainly more intriguing too, because Tom Brady's coming back defending Super Bowl champion. We'll get to the Patriots at a second in what the aftermath now looks like for them in year two without Brady. But now let's look at the aftermath without Drew Brees as a nine win team, what they have right now with Winston and Taysom Hill. Does this seem
about right? Like they're just basically a five hundred football team, Because this was another team, a ton of veterans, a ton of money invested in some older players, and it's going to take I feel like, a year to reappropriate everything before they can start to attack free agency the way they want to and kind of rebuild this team a little bit. How do you feel about the Saints roster right now in this number nine? Like, are we underestimating Sean Payton and his brilliance?
I think so a little bit. I have a lot of faith in Sean Payton. I do think that while they lost Trey Hendrickson and we knew that was potentially a cap casualty for them, I think really where we started see the differentiation for the Saints last year, even though it was yet another disappointing season end is there was a defensive football team, and a pretty impressive one. I think that Saints are really well built top to bottom.
I don't think that the quarterback play is certainly not going to be at the level of a Drew Brees regular season, But I don't think the quarterback play is going to be such a significant, significant drop off.
I don't think.
Taysom Hill is going to be handed the ball to go out and start seventeen games.
I don't buy it.
I never bought it either.
I think Jamis is coming in here at some point, and Jamis is their better option. Now, people listening to this will say, well, it's not a very good option.
And I can't argue with you. He threw thirty interceptions the last night he had a chance.
But you know what, you know, look at the end of the year with Tampa two, where you know that's the Bruce Arians way and when you keep pushing the ball downfield, you're going to have those mistakes built in. Even Brings started to throw some picks towards the end of the y our eyes and go, h, this is kind of tough, but this is what Prasarrians wants to do.
And that Bucks team went seven and nine, Joe, they weren't in a final twelve team base Jamis through thirty interceptions and they went seven and nine. So I say that to state that he's walking into a really good roster. So even if Jamis was throwing more picks than Drew Brees did, I still think you'd get to the point with this team being very good top to bottom. I would take the Saints over. That's me having faith in Peyton and being able to figure out the offense. Get
Michael Thomas back. I think they can get it done. I'll probably have more confident picks on this list, but I feel pretty good about the Saints going over.
I think I would lean towards the over as well right now because.
Are the second best team in the division.
Well, that's that's why I keep coming back to it. I keep I come back to, you know, God forbid, what happens to Brady, what happens to the Bucks then? And then God forbid? Also, you know, you also look at you know, you've got Matt Ryan in this division. Still you got Carolina that's kind of you know, continuously remaking itself a little bit here. And yeah, maybe they'll be better year over year, both of those teams. But at the same time, do they have the talent on
both sides of the ball that the Saints happened? And maybe with the scheme and talent and coaching they can get by. And I always come back to the same thing. You either have the coach or you don't. NFL, you can have all the players in the world. If you don't have the right systems, you don't have the right game plan, You're gonna get schooled. It doesn't matter. Just go ask Buffalo Bills fans, and you know what happened to them for Super bowls in a row. You always
had the better talent for the most part. Maybe that last Cowboys team was better than them, but still, like you know, they had better roster than the Washington team. Then they have better roster than the Giants that they had way more talent. But again, if it was about preparation, it was about game plan. And I have faith in Sean Payton just like I do in some of the great other coaches. And he's a Hall of Fame coach.
Yeah, yeah, five or six coaches are huge difference makers, and I think he's one of them.
Yeah, him, Andy Reid, Belichick's a couple of them. Speaking of Belichick, nine wins for the Pats, that's what the consensus number is right now. Over under last year they were a seven to win team, much to my chagrin, exactly where I did not want them to be as a fan. But look, they've brought back Cam Newton, they have gone on a little bit of a spending spree
here when not one but two tight ends. Now I still think John new Smith is that guy that they really targeted to be the difference making guy for them, and I love the talent of John new Smith and I think there's certainly every reason to believe he can be a playmaker for them. They still lack a little bit of playmaking ability, which hopefully they'll make up four in the draft. We'll see how that goes. They could even potentially take a quarterback yere if somebody slips. It's
very possible. They're in a weird spot in this draft where they could take advantage of a player that falls a couple spots longer than they should. They went for Agalore, they went for Kendrick Bourne, two receivers that have played well but nobody expected them to and this is fascinating to see if they can get anything out of them. But overall, I gotta tell you, I think the biggest addition for the Pats is getting all those players back year over year that sat out. They had the most
players sit out for COVID last year. So for me, looking at the nine wins, I look at this division, I think Buffalo is still the class of it. Miami's going to be tricky, but.
The rest of us know what their QB play is gonna be.
Like this number feels about right to me on the nine. And that's another one where I think I just stay away from this nine with the Pats. Do you see the bottoming out of Cam Newton here? Like or is this year two in the offense and all of a sudden they blow this nine away and become an eleven or twelve win team.
I'm with you, Joe.
I think I'm gonna stay away here, if only because I misread the Patriots pretty badly last year. Then again, they dealt with a lot right Cam Newton got sick in the middle of the year, they still won seven games. I think what's interesting about their acquisitions this offseason is some of them are a little head scratching. But at the same time, here's what I ultimately think. I think these transactions can help them get back on the right track for twenty twenty one, and I don't know that
any of it really impacts them long term. Towards the positive, I think they see a little bump and the Pats get back to nine or ten wins. They're back in the playoffs, and fans are like hoping this momentum will keep rolling all the way through to twenty twenty two and beyond and that might not be the case. I
think that could be the situation here. I think they get a nice little bump in twenty twenty one, people say, ah, we're back to normal, and then in twenty twenty two, well, I still don't really know where a long term quarterback is because Cam was fine, but not a pro bowler and we're happy to be in the playoffs. That's just not really the way the Patriots have been rolling for the last twenty years. So I think you're right in this draft. I think they can wait for somebody to
fall out of the top ten and then pounce. That's really more the way that they do things as opposed to giving up a ton of assets to move to number four. In terms of their win total, I would lean towards the over, but I don't feel confident about this at all because I think it could go sideways for them.
It's very easy after last year to see it going sideways, especially with Cam Newton. So I'm gonna just stay away from this one. Let's talk and stay in this division with the Dolphins too. This is another nine win team. Now, they have a ton of draft picks, they have a quarterback in progress, with two. He's got a ton of talent. We've seen him in college, We've seen what he's capable of, but we also saw him struggle at the NFL level last year at times, and I think you saw some good,
little good moments there at times as well. So I don't want to say that Tua can't overcome this and make this a ten win team if they do end up with a Kyle Pitts or somebody like that. I mean, they're in a position where they could really load up here. It's just whether or not you can get everything to work together at once. And I think Flores has done a tremendous job of making them bringing credibility to the Dolphins, which they've lacked, you know, in that Adam Gase era
quite a bit. And it's nice to see the Dolphins kind of get back to that standard because they're historic NFL franchise. But that nine number, for you, this is another tricky one, I think, where you know, free agent wise, you know, I don't know what kind of you know, big moves besides Will Fuller on the offensive side that you can look to. But the draft, I feel like is going to tell the tale. Is this the number.
You want to get in now before they get Kyle Pitts and somebody else, Like if they get Kyle Pitts and Nase Harris or something like that. I feel like this nine is going to go to a nine and a half or maybe even at ten because people are gonna be very bullish about them. What are your thoughts on the Dolphins. Is the time to get in or is it stay away because it's still work in progress.
I think probably stay away. But I think you made a really good point there. This is the type of line that could be severely impacted, significantly impacted by the transactions that they make.
Look they're at six, I'd be.
Stunned if they don't end up with Pits or Jamar Chase, So I think it's probably more likely chased in Pits to me. But we'll see how this draft plays out in the next couple of weeks. I do think that this is a very well coached team. I think Flores is still being underrated with what he's been able to do. Along with Jim Chris Greer in a fairly short period of time, they're able to remake this franchise.
I like the way they are built.
I think there's still a ways to go before they're consistently in front of the Patriots and competing with what is now a very well respected Bills team. But I would lean towards the over with Miami. I have faith and Flores. I think there's enough good pieces here. I think they play solid d the Will Fuller thing, like we're fantasy football players on this pod as well, and they'll never be a year where somebody won't buy in
to will Fuller. So it's all about Will Fuller stayed healthy for seventeen games well, because he doesn't.
Because he doesn't. He answered whatever he was taking last year, they kept him on the field. Now he can't take it.
So what are you gonna do?
Now, Let's talk about the Arizona Cardinals. They just made an acquisition, actually just yesterday, James Connor coming into the fold to join Chase Edmonds. They also brought in aj Green in the offseason. But you know, the Cardinals, everything just hinges on the health of Kyler Murray and whether or not Cliff Kingsbury can kind of get better a little bit with the play calling. I think there's still some issues there on the defensive side of the football. Opportunistic.
I would call this defense. They create turnovers very well. They're aggressive sometimes, but sometimes it costs them. Also, you've seen them blow games as well. What are your thoughts on this Cardinals number? Basically they're till you know, they're a little less than a five hundred team. This is the swing. Now it's very different. So you see the eight. Now that's not five hundred anymore. So we got to like, we got to like reprogram our brains. Now there is
no five hundred. So what do you think they're gonna go here? With the seventeen game schedule? Do you think they get to that nine or is the eight where you'd want to realistically kind of keep them.
I would say that they get to the nine, I would pick them as an over. I don't think it's a hard over necessarily, but I do pick them to go over. The disturbing part about the Cardinals is what
you mentioned. There are moments where we saw which is ironic because Cliff Kingsbury is a very aggressive offensive coach and there were times in game situations where he became timid or conservative, which bugged me a lot and bugs me for their potential long term success because I think Kyler obviously being in place and acquiring weapons like DeAndre Hopkins, and some of the other things they've even done this offseason which you mentioned, are interesting.
But this was six and three team.
Kyler got banged up and it started to slip slide away, and they went two and five down the stretch, which is a horrible way to close out. I think people will sometimes not realize that they were in six and three and in an unbelievable position based on the hail mary that was caught by DeAndre Hopkins. But nonetheless they won that football game. So six and three is what I'm going to focus on. When Kyler was healthy, I do think he's that much of a difference maker. They
continue to add pieces. You're right, the defense needs to get better. I think Cliff needs to get better in situational game calling, but I absolutely shade to the over I don't think.
They regress at all.
The only issue for them is the things we've mentioned, plus how competitive the division is. But you can't just assume that somebody's going to dominate the division. They If they end up going five hundred to the division, that's just fine.
Well, especially because historically, you know, They've played some of their better football against the forty nine ers and some other division. They show up to play Seattle for the most part, you know, I remember that's un they get up for the big games. I think they got to take care of more business and the teams they are supposed to beat sometimes, and that's comes. I think that comes with maturity. And we'll see if that takes a step forward.
I'm with you.
I'm a slight lean towards the over on the Cardinals as well. The Washington football team got themselves a new quarterback, a new old quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick. This was the under five hundred team that went to the playoffs. And you know, for all the buzz everyone's talking about Hurts and the Eagles, for all the buzz on the Giants signing Kenny Galladay and all that, I come back to defense, and I come back to you know, they had no
quarterback play last year. I mean the quarterback play Alex Smith was admirable at times, but let's be honest, I mean at times this was dreadful. So Ryan Fitzpatrick still capable. I kind of feel like this this eight is actually not giving them enough credit and that's how good they are defensively, and how much faith I have in Ron Rivera in what they're doing there. I think this is an over and this is one of the few that I kind of look at it and I go, you know what,
the missing east was the quarterback. The missing piece was the leadership. And everybody loves Fitzpatrick. It seems like all his teammates love him, and I think that's kind of the thing you need right now. And it feels to me like Washington is not getting the respect that they deserve just because they didn't, you know, win in you know a lot of games to win that division. And yeah, we'll see what the Cowboys are this year with Dak back.
But well, again, defensively, that team struggles mightily regardless. So I don't know, I think Washington football team's kind of getting them short end of the stick here.
What do you think fitz should just be selling T shirts with his big face on it, with his huge bushy beard with Yolo written across it, because that's.
That's the embodiment of Yolo.
He's like, I'll grow my hair as long as I want on my face and I'll just throw for four hundred yards in a given game. We all know if Fits got seventeen starts, there's gonna be some clunkers in there. But we're gonna have a lot of fun watching him, and I do. I'm with you on this one as well. We're agreeing a lot here, and my only concern is that, you know, Fitz have a really bad stretch and they dump a couple of games that they're supposed to win.
But we're in a weak division where we still don't even know what Daniel Jones and the Giants are going to look like. Where Philly is admitting that they're in a rebuild with Jalen Hurts, who's dynamic, but he can't carry the team all by himself. Philly's got a ton of holes, which I think is still underrated how much
they need to fix. But there was a moment last year when this division where nobody wanted to win the division and Washington got into a stretch, and I remember saying on Sports Grid on various shows that the bet right now is Washington And this is probably at a time where they had two or three wins, but they were heading into a stretch because everybody else in the division couldn't do anything right. But Washington did one thing
right every game. They pressured the quarterback, and they were good in the front four especially and the front seven.
So and they started to run the football a little well too, Gibbs It yeah, kiss. They had that intermediate short game kind of going for them where they can move the ball a little at a time to eat clock and play defense. And that plays in December, and it plays.
In Jesus too, and Joe, you and I would sit here and say that they didn't even really utilize Terry McLaurin the way that any of us would want them to, and they still won the division. So imagine when he gets unlocked a little bit and they start utilizing some of these other pieces. Antonio Gibson obviously was great.
And Kurtis Samuels now in the fold two there, which is a really interesting piece of very loll I like it. I could do a lot of things with.
I like it. I would never bet them under.
I do think that there's still an opportunity for Washington to grab a long term piece at quarterback, but I think Fitz gets the.
Start to begin the year.
Now we talk about the Giants in that same division, Their numbers at seven now. They did sign Kenny Golladay. This is the make or break year for Daniel Jones, and it really hinges so much on Saquon Barkley because when Barkley's in the lineup, you see Daniel Jones's numbers are completely different. And that's understandable. He is the you know,
possibly one of the best running backs in football. But the problem is he hasn't been on the field much in the last two years, and that's a distinct problem. So you're betting on health here, and on top of which, you're betting on whether or not Daniel Jones can cure the ills of the turnovers that have plagued him throughout his career. This number is at seven right now. They
were a six win team last year. To me, this is a stay away because I don't think any of us know the answer, and I don't see anything that's leading me towards feeling really strong that it's going to be better. And every NFL team will find a couple of those, you know, wins that nobody thought they would win, and this kind of puts them around seven. I mean, this feels like a seven to ten team to me, which again, like you said before, we got to get
used to saying these things. That's kind of what it feels like. It feels like a team that's a little under five hundred is going to get beat up a little bit outside, you know, when they start to play other teams that are better than them outside of their division.
I think that's fair. We have to give Joe Judge some amount of credit. Right, this is an Owen Sure team.
They rally the truth, They competed, no doubt.
You're right, Mike, Especially towards the end of the year, there was a lot of thought that, hey, the Giants could steal this division. Right down to the last two weeks, we thought the Giants had an opportunity to win the division.
You're right on everything, he said.
Say, Quan's got to be somebody that we expect to be the superstar that he was.
Drafted to be.
Daniel Jones has got to be a little better at making decisions. And I do give Joe Judge credit, and I have faith in him to get the team pointed in the right direction. But do I have faith in the roster top to bottom?
Not really.
James Bradbury was really expensive for them, and he played really well. I have to give as much as people want to crap on Gettleman, you have to give him credit for some.
Of the wins.
The Leonard Williams trade looks good. The James Bradbury signing looks good. Right now, those are very expensive players. Perhaps they're not worth their dollar amount, but they're capable and productive and they're moving forward. The Giants' issues for the last couple of years have a lot of times been related to the offensive line. So there's no Nate Solder, Kevin Zeidler, all these pieces moving in and moving out, and then they draft Andrew Thomas, who didn't necessarily play
like a number fourth overall pick. I think you still got some question marks there. It's not a team. I can have a lot of faith in you.
It's tough to invest. It feels like that's that's what you and I are trying to say. It's not a good investment right now. That number and where they are.
I think, I think there's plenty of teams.
By the way that we've said during the course of his last type finance, i'd stay away, and some of you listening maybe saying, well, these guys aren't giving me any advice.
Yeah, that is the advice.
Wait wait, wait, wait, wait until the draft happens, right, wait and see if somebody tears an ACL. There's plenty of bets on totals that can be placed in August where you're taking a strong position, you have all the information, you feel good about the coaching staff, and you can move forward. I wait often, I'll wait. There's a certain numbers last year, and last.
Year was obviously a very funky situation. Well, they didn't lockdown and everything else. We didn't know if we're going to play. But there was a couple of numbers that I grabbed.
Really early, the Bills that once the Jets started making trades, the power.
Was really early. That those are so low.
Yeah, yeah, I just thought the Colts and that and the Bills were the easiest overs on the board, and the Jets were a hard under, as were the Bengals. So those are the ones I took early. A couple of others I just waited until the last minute.
And I think what we're getting at here is telling you you know, how to react or not react or not overreact to free agency. We got one more team to do, but we're pretty clear here you know, the Colts looked like a good over. Uh you know the situations with the Saints where Mike brings up a lot of good points about coaching, and maybe that nine is
a little low right now. The Dolphins. If you don't like the nine and it gets to nine and a half or ten after the draft because there's so much buzz, maybe that's when you bet the under with this team. You let it go up a little bit and then go under it. And we give you the Cardinal too, which is a team we think could be over that eight as well because of the kind of talent that they have, as well as Washington. So there's one more here,
which is the Panthers at seven and a half. They've got a quarterback they've brought in from New York, Sam Darnald and Teddy Bridgewater and looks like he's moving to the back burner for now. Theoretically, get Christian McCaffrey back. This team won five games last year. The play calling was great, The defense was very young. They spent all their draft picks the previous season on defense, and I'll tell you what that defense did play better as the
year went on. You can see early on they were very green, but they have a lot of team speed on defense, and this is a defense that I think is going to get better as they go and start to play together year over year. The Panthers, though this is a tricky one seven and a half, it's actually higher than I thought it was going to be already. Is this the time to get in on it now? And are you buying the idea of just getting Sam
Darnold away from Adam Gase. I'm not saying he's going to be Ryan Tannehill, but my goodness, you're giving him Anderson more and CMC that's a pretty good situation.
Agreed.
So I'll say in general, I think everything the Panthers have done.
The last couple of years.
They got new ownership, they brought in new coaching staff, new GM. I've liked the way that they've built from the second David Tepper took over as owner until now, including decisions like let's try Teddy Bridgewater. Okay, it didn't work out the way we wanted, We're going to try another option. I think these are okay as you're building an organization to try things like this, especially in what when they were caught in the place that they were
in the draft. They couldn't trade up to four, and I don't know if they want to trade up to four.
Maybe they liked the first three guys and not the other two that much.
In the things, that seems like that's the case. They liked the three and then after that they didn't want to take on the Lance Project or mac Jones.
That's right what they did. That's right, So which is great, Just go ahead and do that.
It doesn't necessarily mean that the twenty twenty two quarterback draft class is going to suck compared to twenty twenty one. It's people get really worked up over that, and they don't frankly, have any idea what the twenty twenty two class is going to look like twelve months from now.
But what I would say, in general from a betting standpoint, the number that you can look at with the Panthers is they've lost seven or eight games by one score, right, just doing the math, that is likely to have some positive regression to get them to where you need to be. Now you are you rightly stated the number is probably a little higher than I would have suspected. But I like Darnold coming in with the fact that even if they just get to back to five hundred with those
one score games you can get to. The number doesn't mean they have to win eleven. You're just trying to get them to eight or nine, to a point where you're comfortable. Now, can this number move around, move down a little bit?
Maybe?
I just think that the Panthers number is going to become more bullish and less and I think this is the number of all the ones that we've talked to, has an opportunity to move up as we start to get potential positive news about Donald and other weapons that they may have added through the draft.
So I think it's an over if for no other.
Reason, just based on the mat that they lost so many one score games.
Yeah, I'm with you. I have a lot of faith in that rule and Joe Brady's play calling, and I think even if it doesn't look good in the September, I think it's gonna look better as time goes on. And if Sam Donald can't succeed here in this situation, then I think then they'll move on again next year and find somebody else. But I think it's worth the shot because I don't think Sam Donald ever got himself into a fair situation there and getting out of New York and away from Adam Gase and all that is
the best thing you could possibly ask for. So those are our ten teams that are most effective potentially by NFL free agency in terms of win loss totals. And again you go to betting pros to get all that information that can census over unders on all the teams. Mike, tell everybody where they can find you on the Twitter machine, and of course where all your shows are on Sports Great.
Sure at Mike Blewett, nothing fancy about that. Blitt Football full Circle. I'll be hosting draft shows and I'm on every Sunday live on Sports Grid during the football season, Pro Football Today and College Football Today.
There you have it, Mike. It's so good to talk football with you, just like the time flies. Man, it's I missed this. Mike and I do this every Sunday from the Metlands together doing pre show and hopefully this year on Sportscrew we'll get to do a little bit more stuff together hopefully come NFL season. But catch Mike and the crew. They do a great job and they got that live stream coming up for the draft as well. Mike thank you for your time, your knowledge, buddy, and
again just great to have you on the show. That'll do it for us here, but the story of the game goes on. I'm Joe Piezapia. We'll see you next time. Kids,