It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros. Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's me, Joey p Joe Zapia and today, Oh Baby, we're gonna have our NFC preview. Last week, in case you missed it, we had arial epstem from Sports Grid takeing us to the AFC. And today it's one of my favorite people, one of my members of Team Black book himself. You can check him out on the Action Network and Rodoviz and a
whole lot of other places. He is always working and that's why I love him so much because he reminds me of me. He's the one, the only Mike Randall. You can follow him on Twitter at Randall Rant. Mikey, it is so nice to see you. I'm so used to in the years gone by, doing shows with you every week. Now we don't get to do that. So this, my friend, is a special treat to spend some quality time with you. Joey.
It's about special moments, and this is certainly one of them. I am honored to be here. You and I have done great work together. Now we're doing on a video. We're gonna talk NFC Football's around the corner. Let's get after it.
Let's get after a baby. So today we're gonna talk about those divisions, how they're set up, and of course they're gonna be using Betting Pros. And if you haven't already, make sure you go over to Betting Pros and don't forget about our apps and everything that we offer here a Fantasy Pros too, that we can get all the updates on things that are going on when lines are moving.
But betting Pros gives you that consensus, and if you're new to wagering, it's a great place because if there's wagers you like, you can always move over and find the betting house that you think have the best odds for that wager if you're really hot on it, and take advantage of it. So basically, it's like calling all the houses, having all of them one time, one stop shop and makes life a lot easier. And I like that. I like them. A busy guy, I need efficiency and
that's what Betting Pros is going to give you. And let's start here with the NFC East. Oh, everybody's favorite division, Mike, because you know, it was so exciting to watch no team with a five hundred record in this division last year. But you know what, that Washington fotball team plucky. I enjoyed them. I was rooting for them. It was them against the world. With that incredible defense, One can only imagine that defense will be better. Ryan Fitzpatrick comes into
that division. The Cowboys hopefully will have Dak Prescott healthy and ready to rock in Week one. Then there's the Giants and the Eagles. The Cowboys, though, are the favorite. Of course they are because they're the public team. Plus one forty five on the Cowboys, the Washington football team plus two thirty the Giants at plus three seventy five, and plus five hundred for the Philadelphia Eagles, And again
these are the consensus betting pros numbers. So when you look at the East, Mike, obviously, every time you look at the Cowboys the Yankees teams like that, there's always that big public money and that kind of influences the spread. But is this plus one forty five actually a pretty good number on a Cowboys team that has an offense that is really just ready to rock and roll.
It's a decent number, But I have questions about the Cowboys. Their defense was so bad last year that they spent the first six picks in the NFL draft on defense. Dak has returned and the offense was exploding when he was there and healthy last year over thirty points per game. But my problem, Joe is the offensive line isn't quite as elite as it used to be and the defense is revamped in comes dan Quinn Listen. Dan Quinn struggled in Atlanta, had the peak moment with the Super Bowl
went downhill. I don't know if he's the defensive guru to solve the problem. So I like plus money with Dallas, but I don't think they're going to win the division. I'm going to go in a different direction. And as you said, America backs the Cowboys. That's always going to inflate that number.
All right, So who do you like, Harey? Is it the Washington football team defense with an actual quarterback, because last year, I mean the quarterback play was let's just say MESSI is that? Is that a kind way of putting it?
Seven and nine with Alex Smith, Dwayne Haskins, and Kyle Allen at quarterback. Their defense last year third in defensive DVOA, second against the pass. I like to look, Joe, in these divisions at the most reliable unit, and that unit is the Washington defense.
In this division.
There's no chance that Iron Vera defense is going to come in and not be elite. So they bring in Ryan Fitzpatrick. That's going to be better quarterback play. Their offensive line should be better, and they won the division last year with that limited quarterback production. Antonio Gibson, by the way, he used to be a wide receiver. Now they're finally using him in the passing game. So many weapons, consistency, and they almost won a playoff game with Taylor Heineke.
My favorite is Washington. I think they should be a favorite on the board. I like him here to win the division once again. You and I see eye to eye, and that's why I.
Enjoy doing shows of you. Sometimes there's debate, but I'm with you, man, I think Washington might just win this out. You're right. This is the best unit there defensively by far. And also if they could just get enough offense. And there's already some talk about Antonio Gibson getting a CMC like workload. Ooh, baby, sign me up for that in fantasy. I don't know if that's possible.
What's funny Joe is. They've said that about JD.
Mcizzick and Antonio Gibson and all the running backs there. But the big key to me is the one set I like to look at is the re result in close games, one score games. Last year, Washington was three and five oho and three in games decided by three points, that usually regresses. I'll take last year's division champion.
With a little bit of positive regression.
I love that. The positive regression. I like to be positive. All right, let's move on to the north. Here, the Packers are at the top heavy favorites minus one seventy seven. That's the consensus betting pro's number. Then you have the Vikings at plus three hundred, the Bears at plus five point fifty, the Lions at plus twenty five hundred. God bless them, they're so sweet, the Lions, right, So let's
leave them out of it. You know, justin Fields gave some people something to think about, certainly some excitement in that first preseason game, running around making some plays. The Vikings defense seems on paper to be going in the right direction, although my goodness, Mike Zimmer was none too happy with his defense against the Broncos last week and
their performance. Is this just a foregone conclusion you stay away from this division because the Packers and Aaron Rodgers kind of have something to prove.
Yet again, no, it's not.
And I'm going with the Vikings and I love that performance because it's going to sync the number. The key question, and you and Ariel talked about that last week, is the Vikings defense at home. First off, they were affected by no crowd noise. You talked about that in Minnesota. That's going to return last year? No, Danielle Hunter, he was fifth and sacks in twenty nineteen, Anthony Barr, Eric Kendrix linebackers combined miss nineteen games, and defensive tackle run
stopper Michael Pierce he opted out because of COVID. They signed Patrick Peterson, They signed Bashad brielin. I think the defense returns again. I bank on Mike Zimmer at home. He has a great number against the spread and they're very tough to beat. And by the way, in the last nine games between the Packers and the Vikings, because if you're going to win this division, you have to be able to beat Green Bay Minnesota five three and one. I look for a bounce back in the vikings. I
like the number of plus three hundred. I grabbed it earlier. Now that Rogers is back, I think the money and the public sentiment is going too far in the Packers' way.
I like the vikings here in the NFC North.
You know, I'm not the biggest Aaron Rodgers fan. I have great respect for Aaron Rodgers, so this kind of warms the cockles of my heart when you say things like that. And I remember last year too, they went in there to Green Bay and they put a whooping on them. That was a fun game. Not if you're a Packers fan, but if you're a football fan. That was kind of a fun game last season. Always weird not to see people in lambeau Field for that game, but still a great stat there with the head to head.
Because you're right, it is gonna come down to them. I don't think the Bears are quite ready yet, but certainly keep a team to keep our eyes on. Let's move over to the South. Ear very different South, I think year over year because Drew Brees is gone. The Buccaneers the defending, reigning undisputed champs minus two hundred, but the Saints at plus three point fifty, the Falcons plus eight hundred, the Panthers at plus one thousand. Now you know,
I'm I'm a Tom Brady guy. That's that's well known here in the course, well documented, well revered, but justified, justified. This is to me is the Bucks again that defense so good, Tom Brady, so good, having fun, loving life. The only thing that could stop the Bucks for me, from winning this division is just a rash of injuries, including maybe even Brady. That's the only thing that I
think can hold them back. Because even if they have an injury to say a Fournett or Ronald Jones, well, you still got running back depth here on the team. You have wide receiver depth on the team. You have some young guys too who can fill in and step up.
We saw that even last year at times happen. But I mean when you look at ab and Chris Evans and Godwin, and you look at the Saints and what's become of them now between no Drew Brees and the Michael Thomas drama that's unfolding in front of us here with his injury and whether or not he ever comes back and plays it down for them, I mean, the Falcons are gonna rebuild. Is this a hard stay away for you? And when you're look at it at this South.
It's the Bucks and there's no competition here. Once Michael Thomas went down the changeover in quarterback, I can't go with the Saints Santsa with a great defense. We're certainly not going with the Falcons with a first year head coach and the Panthers.
No.
However, I don't mind minus two hundred going with the Bucks because I think they're the clear division favorite. I think they're one of the strongest favorites in the entire NFL. But another area I want to look at is Carolina's over under number. I'm taking the Panthers over seven and a half. I think that number is too low. I think it's a second year. Now we're talking about the coaching staff, Matt Rules. Second year Sam Darnald comes in.
Joe.
Sam Darnald's reputation went down the drain because we heard him say the phrase I'm seeing ghosts.
If there was no mic.
And that did not happen, we would not be thinking so low about Sam Darnald. He's had terrible offensive line play. Carolina should provide that a little bit better than he has in the past, and most importantly, Carolina's strength. The schedule thirteenth overall, but they get off to a great start.
Listen to the teams.
Carolina plays to start home Jets at Houston home Philly. That's four home games in the first six weeks.
They were three and eight one score games.
They were zero and three in games decided by three points or less. They played Tampa Bay in weeks sixteen and eighteen, which means Tampa Bay could be resting because they could have locked up division. So I'm all in on the Bucks. There is no challenge here from the Saints or anyone else. But I also like Carolina is over, which is seven and a half.
Week eighteen still sounds weird to me when you say it. I just I still gotta still gotta wrap my mind around week eighteen. But I'm with you, man, I think that Sam Darnold can really turn things around here. Joe Brady one of the best play callers in my opinion, the soon to be head coach of the Cincinnati Bengals in a year from now. That's that's what I think. Anyway,
we'll see if I'm right. Is there money I can put on that somewhere because I'd like to Randall if I could, I'd like to put money on possible.
The Bengals don't like to pay for coaches though that that aren't there, so I might have no choice.
I have no choice with with the with the crowd they're putting together, with Burrow and jamar Chas and those guys, it just feels like the right fit. But I'm with you one hundred percent. I do like that Panther's number as well on the over because you get that healthy CMC back Donald with something to prove, a lot of good stuff there and some winnable games. You know, the Saints. You know, the Saints got old. The Saints kind of
had their window and it's kind of stopped. And I don't know, man Taysom Hill, Teddy Bridgewater, I mean to Taysom Hill and James Winston. It's just the lack of decision here on that really just kind of puts me in a tough spot when it comes to the Saints.
Yeah, I agree, Marcus Calloy listen great for fantasy with the options and the value he has, not great that he's your top wide receiver for at least Joe seven to eight games and maybe longer this year for New Orleans.
All right, let's go over to the very competitive division here, which is the West. You got the Rams of plus two hundred, the forty nine Ers can send his number plus two hundred, then the Seahawks plus two seventy five, and the Cardinals at plus six hundred. So look, I like the Cardinals. I like Kyler Murray. I think they're going to be fun to watch. The play calling still sometimes is questionable, but I think it's a three team division. How do you see this one working out? Because I'm curious,
this is very tight. You have Russell Wilson, you have Matt Stafford now in town, and who knows, Trey Lance could even be the Week one starter. I still think it's unlikely, But will a Jimmy Garoppolo gets hurt. It might be sooner than later, just because whether they like it or not. How do you see the West here unfolding? From a wagering perspective? With these teams so close plus two hundred Rams, plus two hundred nine Ers and plus two seventy five Seahawks.
I'm gonna call Coolio because this is a better's Paradise the NFC West, it's between the Rams in San Francisco. For me, I'm gonna toss Seattle out. Their offensive line is always in shambles, and sure the book has been on Russell Wilson that he starts slow and he's like a quarterback fought fourteen in fantasy and then he has a miraculous finish.
Last year it was reverse.
We're talking about Russell Wilson, no doubt MVP, and then things slow down. I know Pete Carroll gets a defense together. I'm gonna put them a notch below. It's the Rams of San Francisco, and I'm gonna go with San Francisco for three reasons. First is the rushing attack. Center Alex Mack is now back with Kyle Shanahan, and that should be huge for their offensive line. If we can just get his sweating problems done, Joe, he's having a lot of sweating problems on the exchange with the ball to
the quarterback. Everything should be fine. Maybe he's just excited to be there. But that offensive line with Trent Williams, who's the highest graded tackle per PFF, is going to be solid. Let's talk about their running backs. Raheem Moster, Trey Sermon, of course, is shooting up fantasy draft boards. Jamichael Hasty impressed in Week one. They have a litany of running backs that are impressive. Second reason is the schedule. They get the AFC South along with the Falcons, Bengals, Eagles,
and Lions. They have the easiest strength of schedule per Warren Sharp in the league, and it's not close. Lastly, the Niners just need some injury regression. Last year they won six and ten. Jimmy Garoppolo out for ten games, Deebo Samuel nine, Nick Bosa, d Ford miss time, and Moster was out for eight. When they were healthy, was only two games. What happened Week six and seven? Beat
the Rams and one at New England. Give me Kyle Shanahan, give me some average quarterback play, and I think they should go over their win total, which is ten and a half. People think that's high. There's a reason it's high, folks. I like the forty nine ers in the NFC West. I think this is gonna be competitive. I think it's gonna be down the wire. But I'm gonna take the Rams in this one. And here's why.
I think Matthew Stafford unleashed now is going to be very different. Matt Stafford, You're basically taking one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the game and taking possibly one of the worst places you could possibly be and dropping him one of them the best offensive mines in football and Sean McVay. You've got a bunch of wide receivers to throw the football. You've got a really good tight end in Tyler Higbee. I do think the cam Akers
injury does hurt them. I'm still curious to see if they pick up somebody else, but hey, maybe they do like the kids that they have, Maybe Jones and Funker guys that they like. We'll see, But I don't know, man, it feels to me like Aaron Donald in this defense. What this team was really lacking was, you know, the quarterback play. Jared Goff just could not get it done
in the big spots. I think Matthew Stafford will and I think as much as I love Trey Lance, and I do, I am mister Trey Lance at the end of the day, I just have a hard time thinking that the rookie can take Hi past Matt Stafford. This is gonna be a fascinating division I think it's fun that neither of us went Seahawks in it, even though that's the best number.
Yeah, and I have no problem.
I think Stafford's gonna have a monster year, and I think the injury to camp Akers means he's going to even more. I'm just a little headstand with the Rams offensive line a little bit old. The defense is certainly solid. I have no problem with that at all. I think it's a coin flit between those two teams. I do put seat a little bit behind these other two. All right, let's take a look now at the NFC. The winners.
Potentially we have the Bucks at plus three hundred. Here the favorites, of course, Actually the three to one actually have a better number than I thought you'd get on the Bucks. If you can find anything above that, get on there and take it. Because I know it's boring. I know it's frustrating, folks. I know you hate Tom Brady, but this is a really complete football team, and it's got continuity,
and that is a tough thing to break. It's the continuity year over year, the fact that these guys really enjoy each other's company that goes a long way. Like this whole good vibes thing. It's not something to overrate. It's something that actually is investible in a lot of ways. Plus three hundred there for the Buccaneers, the Packers at plus five point fifty, your forty nine ers. That's why I'm gonna call them your forty nine ers out plus six fifty, and of course the Rams at that same number,
plus six fifty. So of the favorites. To me, Mike, when I look at this board, I see the Bucks and I see the Rams. Those are the two teams I could see coming out of the NFC. I just have a hard time. Aaron Rodgers, you know, in the big spot, just always comes up short, just what history has taught us. And you know, the forty nine ers again, you gotta get past Brady, you gotta get past Stafford the playoffs and on and Aaron Rodgers or some combination.
I find that a little hard to believe. But for you, is there certain place or places you would want to place bets?
Yeah, for the favorites, those are fine, and I think plus three hundred for Tampa Bay is very strong, given that they're probably gonna have home field advantage. Well coached, as long as there's no major injuries. You said, I think they should be fine. I have concerns with the Packers the offensive line. Corey Lindsay is now with the Chargers. Rick Wagner now with the Ravens. They have David Bactiari, of course, the master Chugger from my Milwaukee Bucks title run there in the Fiord.
When did you become a Bucks fan? What did that know? Oh?
Yes, I've been a Bucks fan. I have a good friend that works for the Bucks. Here fear the deer Bucks and six of course Joe. Okay, but they reputation of the Packers defense to me is still soft per PFF. They were ranked twenty first and twenty seventh in pressure rate the last two years. Their secondary, by the way, is a little overrated. Jay R Alexander fantastic all pro. But everyone else I'm not sure about that. I don't like the Packers there. I would roll with the Niners
as well. I think the Niners, like I said, injury regression is going to make a big, big difference, so with the favorites for me, if you want to go Bucks, I'm fine with it.
Also like the Niners of plus six fifty.
All right, did anybody ever tell you you look like you could be a head coach, especially with the with the hat and the outfit today. You really I mean, I'm sitting here on the show here, and of course you can always watch us over on Betting Pros on the YouTube side of Fantasy Pros, and I'm looking at it. I'm looking at Randal and thinking, this is like a press conference with a head coach here. The way you're all done up today.
Well, and this was such a big thing for me.
I went to look at al Pacino and his motivational speech about those inches. That's what I'm on the team. Jammie Fox is behind me, clapping right now.
There you go. Jamie Fox actually his character and that reminds me a little justin Fields. I got a similar kind of swagger about them. That's the way I would go with that. All right. Some of the long shots here, and some are longer than others. You got the Seahawks plus eleven hundred, the Cowboys plus fifteen hundred, then the
Saints of plus sixteen. That's lighting money on fire. Don't do that, boys and girls, the Vikings plus twenty two, the Cardinals plus twenty two, and then there's the Washington football team at plus twenty five hundred. Now, I'm an old school football guy, and there's something about playing defense in January, running the football that it works. It's one of those things that it really works. And if you could take one of those elite quarterbacks off the field,
play defense, control the football. And what's the kryptonite of Tom Brady is a pass rush. Just you want way to beat hims, do put him on his rear end. That's something the Washington football team can do. If you're gonna sprinkle a little bit, Chips, the sprinkle for me on a long shot is the Washington football team this year. As crazy as that sounds, you're kind of not in your head. I feel like you're kind of feeling that too a little bit.
You took the words out of my mouth.
That's why a great mind think of like I want a defense and I want to run the ball, And that's why I like Minnesota plus twenty two hundred and I like Washington a plus twenty five hundred offensive line, stop the run pressure. Keep in mind Tampa Bay almost lost to Taylor Heineke. Just keep that in mind in the playoffs last year. That's the type of teams I want as much as my Saints had here without Michael Thomas. I just don't think they can do it. And they
have to work out the quarterback play. Sean Payton's gonna do some great things with Taysom Hill. But I just think these other teams are better built for that win that they need in the cold Minnesota, Washington, no problem going on the road here. I like both of those. Plus twenty two hundred plus twenty five hundred, I will take it.
Plus twenty five. You don't have to put that much on it, you know, put a little bit, and then all of a sudden, if it starts to look good, then you double down later on. That's what you do. All right, Let's take a look at some win totals and some player props in the NFC. Let's start with the Arizona Cardinals. We already kind of talked about the Carolina Panthers, which I'm glad Mike brought it up, because that's a team that I think is not being taken
as seriously as they should. Also, very young defense. They spent every single draft pick two years ago on defense, and they were very green. But if you walk closely last year that Carolina Panthers defense started to get it. They started to look very young athletic, and they weren't nearly as taken advantage of as they were in the first part of the season. I'm fascinated to see what that unit looks like in twenty twenty one. Let's talk
about the Cardinals though. The number for them is eight and a half plus money on the over, plus one oh five minus one twenty five on the under. Ken and again we have to, like I said last week, we have to readjust our brains here about this eight number, because as not for No. Five hundred anymore. You're either a winning team or you're losing team unless you get a tie. And nobody likes that. Nobody eight and a half. That's the number. What do you do with the Cardinals here?
Over under or stay away?
Didn't share my notes with you prior to this, but you said five hundred, and that's the key number, Joe. In Cliff Kingsbury's career, both as a college coach and a pro coach, he has got over five hundred just twice in early years. He's getting this reputation as this is fake sharp in the fantasy community. Thirty five and forty career record in college as a head coach, thirteen eighteen and one as an NFL head coach. They were eight and eight last year when San Francisco was six
and ten. I am taking the under here. I know they added JJ Watt, but they added a lot of older players, which during this year with COVID still as an issue, could be a problem. JJ Watt thirty two, AJ Green thirty three, Malcolm Butler thirty one. James Conner's twenty six, but he's had injury history, just came off the COVID list. The Cardinals face the sixth most difficult slate of pass defenses per Warren Sharp. I'll take the fake sharp Cliff Kingsbury, he will go under eight and a half.
I love it, man, you crushing it all right. Let's go to the Dallas Cowboys. Here again the public money and sometimes I like to take advantage of this. Now the numbers nine and a half here plus one p fifteen on the over, minus one thirty five on the under on that nine and a half. So look, I know you talk about the defense being bad, but man, this feels like a team that could really just outscore everybody or at least most people to get to ten wins.
Cowboys feel like a ten win team to me, especially cause they play the Eagles and the Giants twice. I mean, yeah, you gotta go three and one. You gotta imagine like that's three wins right there, at least in my mind. But what do you think about this team? I know they drafted Michael Parsons, I know they've made some moves here at least in the offseason, But nine and a half. Can they get to double digits? I feel like they can.
I don't think any team in the NFL is more destined for nine and eight than the Dallas Cowboys. They have a defense that still I still think is gonna struggle. I don't think the offensive line is that much better than the defenses of both Washington and the Giants. By the way, in this division, the Cowboys get the public money that the number always gets inflated.
Is Dak healthy? I think so?
But the second arm MRI is a little concerning, and if you know, if he misses time, this team is going south. Little note here, Joe, since two thousand with Dallas, because they receive all the public money, they are fourteen and seven to the underwin total since two thousand, I'm gonna make at fifteen and seven. We will go under here with the Cowboys.
Very nice, Okay, all right, So we're gonna differ on that one. We're together on one. Different on the other. Let's go to the Packers. The number is ten and a half minus one twenty on the over, plus one hundred on the under. So ten and a half. I mean, that's pretty strong season. Obviously a division that could be pretty competitive. Though, So when you're looking at this North and you're looking at the Packers here, can they get
the over ten and a half? Is this number you like or don't this one?
I'm staying away. I think it's the Vikings and the Packers clearly ahead of everyone else in the division. Lions I'm not into. I think the Bears are headed in the wrong direction. So could I see Minnesota Joe getting eleven wins and then the Packers also getting eleven in Minnesota winning the tiebreaker or possibly twelve and eleven?
Sure.
I don't like the defense. I think they're soft. I don't like the offensive line. I also have this thing with Mojo, you know, the whole thing with Aaron Rodgers in the offseason. I'm telling you who I want, Randall Cobb. I'm gonna stay away from this one. I could see, even though I'm down on the Packers, them cresting this number.
So it's to stay away from.
Me crusting this number. Nice vocab. I enjoy that. You come for the football, you stay for the vocab, everybody. Los Angeles Rams. The over under for the Rams this year. That number is ten and a half plus one twenty on the ten and a half. Getting nice number there on that minus one forty on the ten and a half on the under. So your thoughts here on the Rams? Again? Tough division, So what are your thoughts here on this one?
Yeah, super competitive division, but the plus money on the over ten and a half is attractive to me. This is the most competitive division, but they could have two teams that are just that much better. Seattle is sort of the wildcar here, but the Rams do look solid. They can put points up. Aaron Donald Jalen Ramsey. The plus money is the key here. The fact that I'm getting plus one twenty if they can get eleven wins
is too attractive to pass up. Even though I like San Francisco to possibly win the NFC.
I'll take the over here with the Rams.
This next one, I want to smash the under. I'm gonna tell you, smash it. New Orleans Saints nine nine without Drew Brees Now, Michael Thomas, I'm sorry, I just cannot get there plus one hundred. I know it's minus one twenty, but you know what, I think this is one of the few times I see a minus number and I'm just gonna go with the under. And I'm gonna just grin and Barrett, because I don't see how they get there. I don't see how this is a winning team. I really don't. I mean, look, they've strung
it together. Sean Payton is a wonderful football coach. But you know, I think the more there's losing Drew Brees the quarterback, use Drew Brees the leader, and I think that is just something you can't account for enough year over year, and I just think this is gonna be an ugly year for the Saints.
Personally, I agree. I think it's a challenging year. I like Taysom Hill over Jamis Winston. I think he went three and one. I think it was last year in one of those games was the Denver game. I understand that with the quarterback issue, that was a give me yeah, but there was a disconnect between Camara and Taysom Hill getting those dump offs. They don't have any receiving options. They really need Adam Troutman to pop as a tight end.
If he doesn't, they're gonna be in trouble. The defense is great, but they're in a division here where they're going to be challenged. They have Tampa Bay that to me, is gonna be two losses without Michael Thomas. Marquez Callaway's their leading receiver. I just can't see it. I think Kamarai is gonna hit some regression as well. We can talk about that later. I'm with you on the under, even though the minus money is there, I'm gonna take it and I'm gonna lay the juice.
Troutman needs to have a good game this week. I need to see something needs.
To be Jimmy Graham for them to be if this jew's got to be Jimmy Graham.
Yes, but I need to see something, some glimmer of that this week because we're not gonna see anything in Week three, because everyone's gonna see it like that. That's great, like. This is such a weird pattern too, because we have preseason, so we have Game one where you're gonna get like a little glimmer series or two of guys, and then you know, the secondary guys come in and the thirst string guys come in. And then this week I'm anticipating we're gonna see a half of football, maybe from some
of these teams, some more than others. But then the following week I expect to see nothing again. It's gonna be like the old Week four. I would imagine now maybe a couple position battles and things like that to look at, but I don't know. This is kind of a make or break week for Troutman there to kind of give you at least some confidence going into the year.
Let's transition here and finish with some fun stuff. Let's do some player props in the NFC, and let's start with my favorite quarterback in the world, Aaron Rodgers, who is never, never negative and obviously is a big team guy. Forty five hundred and fifty and a half. That is the number, forty five to fifty and a half. Minus one twelve on the over, minus one twelve on the under. You want to go over under on the forty five fifty and a half number. For Aaron Rodgers, it's a pretty big number.
Vegas is so smart they're adding the extra game, and that is tempting people to do the over on these bets. Let's remember, folks, how do you know the quarterbacks are not gonna sit in that last week?
Right?
Well, we sure that it's going to be seventeen games. Aaron Rodgers has.
Say it with me.
Joe crested this number once in his entire sixteen year NFL career, and that was in twenty eleven when he only played fifteen games. I think the number is too high. You know, they want to run the ball. Aj Dillon is.
Going to get rushing attempts. They want to control it.
If you think the Packers are going to be good and there's gonna have positive game script and you're dealing with an older quarterback, I will hit the under here minus one twelve.
This next one is a fascinating quarterback number at the time we're talking about it because of the injury. Now, in my mind, I think Dak Prescott going into the season quote unquote healthy, had a real shot at five thousand yards because two years ago he nearly hit that number in just sixteen games, So now you're adding that extra game, the number is forty eight twenty five and a half. So four eight hundred and twenty five and a half the over plus one zero two the minus
one thirty on the under. I think this is an over and don't I don't think this is close again if healthy, And I think the only reason you're getting the numbers you're getting on it right now is because people are a little concerned. And I think this number, you know, maybe you know, if reports get better, maybe you see this number jump in terms of where it's set. So what are your thoughts on Dak? Are you you seeing a little bit more hesitant on the Cowboy than I.
Am on the Cowboys? Yes, on Dak.
No to hit this prop, he has to average three hundred and one passing yards per game for only sixteen games. He could be off Week seven seventeen and still hit this. Or suppose the Cowboys are battling like I project them to be at nine to eight and he actually plays seventeen last year before he got hurt, three hundred and seventy one passing yards per game two point four touchdowns,
thirty point four fantasy points. Give me plus money. I understand it could be hurt, but that's baked into the number. I'll take a chance here. I will take the over with Dak in what I think the Cowboys are going to be battling for a playoff spot and he may have to play seventeen games.
Calvin Ridley, some people think in the fantasy football community, has an outside shot at being wide receiver one overall. And I was a very big Calvin Ridley guy last year partially because Julio Jones was actually still there. I thought that's actually something that's good for the young wide receiver to continue to learn under somebody like Julio and also, you know, continue to have coverage pulled over. But when Julio wasn't around, Calvin Riddan still balled out. So that
is good. Now, this number is one thy three hundred and seventy five and a half. That's the number. That's a pretty solid number that, my friends, is a Julio number. The question is it's a different head coach. Is it a different philosophy. You have Kyle Pitts, you have Gage, you have Mike Davis. Ridley is your premium weapon. Let's be honest. Okay, I mean I think Kyle Pitts is a phenomenal prospect. Let's see how he transitions into the NFL.
But what do you think about this number? Thirteen seventy five and a half over under is minus one twelve. What do you do with Ridley here?
He had thirteen seventy four last year with Julio still hanging around Falcons. Pass plays per game last three years fifth, first and third. I know Arthur Smith new head coach, so we're uncertain. Are we grounding and pounding with Mike.
Davis and Caydrialison? We are not?
Don't think so?
No way, and listen, I don't think they're going to be very strong as a team, so I think they're going to be passing a lot. Ridley last year first among wide receivers in air yards, fourth and receiving yards, seventh in targets, but only thirteenth in target share on the Falcons. That obviously goes way up. I think he has the same production with more volume efficiency plus volume, he could lead the league in receiving yards over for Calvin Ridley.
All right, let's talk about his teammate Kyle Pitts the rookie sensation, and look, I understand why people are excited. They should be excited about him. The number for him I thought was fascinating eight hundred and a half. That's the over under minus one twelve on both. So what do you think about Kyle Pitts? Can he be the anomaly when it comes to rookie tight ends eventually?
Yes, this year No.
Most receiving yards by a rookie for tight end Mike Dicka one thy seventy six, Shocky back in two thousand and two, eight ninety four, Keith Jackson eight sixty nine, Chase Young eight sixty four back in seventy three, and John Mackie seven sixty four. Do I think that Kyle Pitts is going to have the fourth best season ever of a tight end as a rookie.
No, I do not, even in.
The current climate of the way the NFL structured, like the way it's so wide open now and the need that the Falcons have. That's fair and they're going to pass a lot, But he's not gonna play tight end only. He's probably gonna line up some times out there as well. That's my argument for this number is. That's why I think it's so fascinating. It's like, do you believe he gets work, you know, as a wide receiver basically, or is like this weird hybrid player.
I think he does, Joe, But I think there's a learning curve for wide receivers, rookie wide receivers coming in the NFL, and we know there's a learning curve for rookie tight ends. Hayden Hurst is going to be a splinter. Gage will catch some passes, Zachias will catch him passes, Mike Davis will catch him passes, all under the umbrella of Calvin Ridley. I think he has a very strong year, and I think he could eventually become this dominant of a tight end. I don't see it in year one.
I will take the.
Under all right, Christian McCaffrey. The rushing total twelve hundred and a half. This is kind of built into whether or not you think he can stay healthy, because it feels like if he's healthy, he smashes this number twelve hundred and a half minus one twelve on the over and the under. Now, look, I understand he gets a lot of work in the past game as well, but boy, What a difference for Sam Darnold to be dropped into
this offense with all these these options. DJ Moore, his old friend Robbie Anderson, Terrace Marshall looks like a nice player. You got McCaffrey, So I guess here's the question. Is Carolina going to be careful with McCaffrey or is it back to business as usual? And how does that impact this number?
What we need to remember is the under is always the sharp play because people want to root for things to happen, they don't want to root against them. With COVID as the variable here, you have to realize that that could also play a role. Does Christian McCaffrey play all seventeen games. It's unlikely for any running back, and I'm not even talking about COVID. It is SUPERB twenty nineteen season, two hundred and eighty seven carries four point
eight yards per carrie. Let's go with two hundred and sixty carries at four point six yards per carrie, which is still really strong. That's eleven ninety six run defenses they face this year the Panthers, Pats, Washington, Buffalo, Tampa Bay, and New Orleans twice. It's a great number. I think it's right there, but I do like under A McCaffrey.
All right, let's see what you think about Camara his rushing total nine to fifty and a half minus one twelve on the over under for him nine to fifty and a half. Look, they're gonna have to use Kamara a lot, but historically it's been a lot of work through the air. Do you think he's going to scratch out a thousand yard season potentially here with just the need of what they're gonna need from Alvin Kamara and getting hold up to the amount of workload that maybe
they're gonna demand of him this year. We're aready hearing some talk about Olatavius Murray might not make the team. I think that's madness. I don't know. I was Freeman better than Murray. I don't know what they're doing over there. But what do you think of this nine to fifty and a half number when it comes to Kamara's rushing total?
Pop quiz Joe, Sure or false?
Alvin Kamara has rushed for one thousand yards in a season in the ESL.
I'm sorry, false, that is false? Sure or false?
Alvin Kamara has rushed for over nine hundred and forty yards in a season.
Uh, that's also false.
That is also false.
One more, but they all had Drew Brees attached to them that well, in some capacity for the most part. Not these last two so much that the last one, this.
Will be the bonus question. Alvin Kamara has rushed for.
Wait wait wait wait wait wait? Do I win for the bonus question? Like I feel like I've I've got the It's like the pyramid, like my eternal respect?
Is what you get? That worth more?
Answer it anyway? Okay, go ahead.
Alvin Kamara has rushed for over nine hundred yards twice in his four year career.
That is also false.
That is, it's only once. Whoever is the running back? And I think it'll be Murray or Freeman. I think teams are going to center on Camara. He obviously is elite in the passing game. Eighty one eighty one eighty one eighty two receptions is four years. I am going under on this number. He's a superior weapon. But I don't think he's going to get the rushing attempts. I think he is fragile to a certain extent, which is
why they're not going to hammer it to him. And I think we have some recency biased Joe, because I'm a little sensitive about Alvin Kamara's six touchdown game.
I know you are. Oh in our league, boy, Mike Randall had a hell of a season. Boy, he dominated. Everybody was five hundred. Not Mike Grandell, he was twelve and two. I think going into that unde seated. I almost beat you. I lost by a couple of points that that one week. I wanted to be the guy to do it to you, because if you're gonna lose, lose to a friend, that's what I always say. I thought you were the team and you still had a great week, and you you should be bitter. You absolutely
should be bitter about that. I know now six six.
I'm taking can have a great year, but still go under.
Yeah. Well, look I've won your respect, which is nice. Hopefully Mike Randall's won you some money here with some of the discussions we've had. So once again, make sure you go over to bettingpros dot com check out those consensus lines and if you see better numbers on anything that we've talked about today, you say, wow, this is even better number. I'm gonna go ahead and bet that at MGM or fandor or DK or wherever you want to go do that. That's what betting pros is for.
You can see all the lines at one time and make your decisions there. And of course it's always a good decision. To follow Mike Randall on the Twitter machine at Randall Rant. You could check out his work in My Fantasy Football Black Book. He did the whole way dering section like always, because he's very smart when it comes to that. That's why I like to have him on the shows. And that's on Amazon. You can also check out his work at Rodo Underworld, Rodo Viz and
the Action Network. Mike Randall, it is always a pleasure to chat with you, my friend. Great stuff, great stats, and I mean I've won your respect. I mean, it doesn't get much better than.
That, nothing better than that. I owe you a beverage, my friend. Thanks for having me there.
You go, all right, that'll do it for us, But the story of the game goes on for Randall. I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids,