It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros.
Welcome in everybody to betting pros.
It's v Joey p Joe Pizzapia and today it's about the divisional round of the NFL playoffs.
So Wildcard weekend was fun.
Lots of exciting performances, some one sided games and some closer ones, that's for sure, just as the Raiders and Bengals. But those are all in the dust. Those are all history. And Scott Bogman is going to help me break all the games for this weekend down. We've got four games, two on Saturday, two on Sunday.
Scott Bogman, did you learn.
Anything from these teams that have advanced and survived after the first round?
I think we learned that the Chiefs and Bills game might be the highest scoring game in the history of football. I mean that the Bills literally scored a touchdown every single time they touched the ball, so I think it was seven for seven in touchdown drives. And then the last drive they had was the victory formation. So they were outstanding. And the Steelers woke the Chiefs up in the second quarter, and you know you wake up Patrick
Mahomes and you're gonna get a lot of points. Even you know, Tyreek Kills a little gimpy going in again game, he looked fine. Travis Kelce was throwing touchdowns. They throw touchdowns to offensive linemen. I mean, it was an embarrassment for my Steelers, but the Chiefs look like they're peaking at the absolute right time right now.
Well, my Patriots were equally embarrassed.
So that's okay.
We can go lick our wounds for the rest of the offseason. But yeah, high total on this Bill's Chiefs game, and we're gonna break them all down. But we got to start here with Saturday at four thirty Eastern, and it's the Cincinnati Bengals taking on the Tennessee Titans. The Bengals are three and a half point underdogs in this one heading to Tennessee, which feels about right to me. On the money line, if you like the Cincinnati Bengals, you're getting plus one fifty too. The total for this
game is forty seven. So Boggs, when you're looking at this one, what's your first instinct, because I know what mine is, but I want to get your take on this first.
The Bengals are peaking right now.
And I hate to say it because I despise them, but they've been playing great football man, and Joe Burrow looks unflappable right now. Jamar Chase is outstanding, Joe Mixon is healthy.
You know.
In the defense, I mean, they crushed Derek Carr. This pass rush is incredible. I mean, you just go back to the offseason and you think of this Trey Hendrickson signing and it was just outstanding for this team. They still need a little help in the secondary and linebackers. You can check out my mock draft to see where I went there. But you know, I think that they're peaking.
And this is the first week back for Derrick Henry and we're not as we're recording this, we're pretty sure Derek Henry is going to be back, but he could still be inactive right and AJ Brown is just back, So we don't know what.
Tennessee team we're gonna get.
Are we gonna get the good you know, run it down your throat forty times with Dereck Henry is going to be used sparingly. AJ Brown's had a couple of good games, but Ryan Tannehill's kind of been hit or miss this year. So for me, I'm going to take the Bengals on the money line straight up to win this game on the road and go to the AFC Championship. As much as it discussed me over under, I'm a
little wishy washy. I'm gonna take the under just because I think Tennessee is going to win time of possession in this game because Derek Henry is back. I'll give them that at least so, But I just think the Bengals are too good to be beaten by Tennessee right now.
You know we did not rehearse this ahead of time. I feel the exact same way.
Wow.
The reason why is not because of last week's game.
Actually, in some ways, it's in spite of it, because I did not like the fact that they let the Raiders hang around, and I did not like the fact that it got it took their foot off the gas a little bit.
They took their foot off the gas.
But on top of that, Bogs, when you watch that game, they also had a couple of injuries too.
They they they allow the Raiders.
To hang around, and you don't want to do that with the Titans. I just want to put that out, especially you don't want to do it on the road. But I'm going back to the game a couple weeks ago against the Kansas City Chiefs where I made a big statement I remember on the TV show about it, which is, this is the game where you find out who the Bengals are. And the Bengals showed you, and they showed you in a big way who they were against the Kansas City Chiefs, and that, to me is
who the Bengals are. And I feel like they take it personally that you know, they won the division, they won a playoff game, and they're still underdogs. I think they take it personally. I think Joe Burrow does too, and I think he is a leader in the real deal.
And I think my favorite wager is, just like you, it's the Bengals on the money line, and we all know one of these games is going to go sideways, right, one of the fielders is not going to win at least one, And looking at it, it's a hard sell for me on the other three home teams. It just is this is the one to me that's wide open.
If we thought Tennessee was a paper tiger going into the playoffs anyway, even getting Derrick Henry back, There's been games where they had Dereck Henry and they lost, and you look around each other like, how did the Titans lose this game? I worry about Tannehill turn the ball over at a crucial time, and I just feel like this is the sneaky one where you're looking at it
and it's only three and a half. Right, So it's not like Vegas is confident at all, Right, Tennessee Titans going into this game where it's like, oh, it's a five and a half point spread or something like that. No, no, no, it's basically like, eh, as little as you could possibly favor them, we will. So I'm with you on this. I can't believe we're agreeing on the Cincinnati Bengals. My goodness, that's exciting.
But imo, they are changed.
The forty seven is a number that I don't care for either. I think the best wager is the money line. And if you want to put this in a parlay and do all four games, which by the way, we were one game shy. We were five or six in the super parlay. Broke my heart.
Sorry, boys, well in parlay, but he was six and h against the spread this week.
That's very good, very good. But yeah, Cincinnati Bengals, if you want to put him in this week, I would put him with the three and a half. But if you want to go crazy and put them on the money line, you can, but I'm with you. That's the wager I like in this game. Let's let's look at some individual props potentially in this game too. Let's talk about past numbers here, Joe Burrow two seventy eight and a half, Ryan Tannehill two thirty eight and a half.
If we like the Cincinnati Bengals, do we like the over here and the Joe Burrow number?
I mean I do like the over, but I'm not betting that number with confidence. That's a lot of yards, so pretty had two seventy five is a lot. I think he's going to be right somewhere between two seventy five and three hundred, so there's just no way I'd touch it.
The Chase number, to me is actually one that I would go over on. It's seventy seven and a half. What are your thoughts on that.
One that's receiving mm hmm, Yeah, I mean I think I think I would rather go over than under that number, But I think I would rather do total yards because we saw Chase Gate used like Deebo Samuel last week, he had four rushes, So I think I would go with a total yards number over a receiving yards only four Chase.
All right, fair enough, And right now as recording this, we still don't have a number on Derrick Henry. So if that comes through, you always see this up on Twitter and we'll answer that. What about on the passing side for Ryan Tannehill, two thirty eight and a half is the number? Your thoughts on that, especially getting Derek Henry back theoretically what impact that has potentially on that number?
I think you have to go over that number, especially if you're picking Cincinnati to win this game. Straight up, mean, you know, it should mean that Tennessee is playing catch up at some point in this game, even if it's only the fourth quarter. You know, you have put a seventy yard drive together with mainly passes. You have aj Brown back, you have Julio healthy finally, you know, so all your pieces are there for Tennessee. There's no excuses for them in this game. So I think I would
go over that number. If I had to pick it.
I'll tell you what.
If you don't like the passing number for Joe Burrow, how about the passing tds at one and a half.
That feels like an I take the over on that I crush.
That seems like an easy over to me too, So if you're having any sort of pause, that's the way I would approach it. In Bogs and I agree yet again. There all right, let's move on to the night game on Saturday night. The San Francisco forty nine Ers, who we told you were going to upset the Dallas Cowboys, and sure enough they did. The forty nine Ers, who are gonna go into Green Bay. Now green Bay rested off the by Aaron Rodgers' tow has been on ice or heat or whatever the hell he's doing to his
toe Co Packers. The Packers are five and a half point favorites in this one. No surprise there. If that number feels respectable, we're respecting the Packers, but we're also respecting the strong close to the season for the forty nine ers. You have forty seven, just like the other game. Interesting that both games on Saturday are forty seven, So the forty nine Ers defense, you know, has played relatively
well here. Deebo Samuel has been fantastic. The question is, Bogs, can they do enough here to cover this five and a half or do you think a rested Packers team in Green Bay rolls them.
I'm gonna take the Packers and look this game, I'm gonna take the over too. I think I like the over more in this game, just because the Packers have not looked good on defense, particularly against the rush, and that's exactly what the Niners do. They run the ball down people's throats. Eli Mitchell twenty seven carries last week, Deebo had ten. They look outstanding in this run game
and the Packer has been bad against it. But that Niners defense, you know, Bosa is gonna play, but he's questionable. Fred Warrener's little banged up now, and the secondary has been the issue for that team the entire year. Aaron Rodgers isn't going to be stopped in this game. So I think there's gonna be a lot of points here, and I just am. The thing that I'm most confident in is Jimmy g making that big boneheaded mistake third or fourth quarter and the Packers taking advantage of it.
He did it in Dallas, and Dallas just couldn't score. You know, they had too min eight penalties on offense thirteen penalties. Obviously a lot of controversy to the end of that game and stuff. But for me, I think I have to go with the Packers at home and lay the five and a half. And I really like that it moved to five and a half instead of six, because I think six kind of makes me queezy. But five and a half I like a lot. So give me the Packers and the over in this game, all right.
The consensus continues with Bogging and myself, I like the over, and I also like the five and a half on the Packers side as well. All the public money is coming in, the vast majority of it on the Packers, and typically that's something whenever I see it, I get a little antsy about myself. But I just I can't do it. I'm not gonna go against Aaron Rodgers, at least not this week. But believe me, if they end up losing to the forty nine Ers, I'm not gonna be sad about.
It at the end.
I guess here's the question.
You and Welsh will be so happy.
Well, here, here's a question for you. When you're looking at the two coaches in this game, and you know these teams have met up before, and if you were a call a few years ago on their path to the Super Bowl, the forty nine Ers absolutely just ran rough shot over the Packers.
Now very it feels like a different pack.
I think Aaron Rodgers owing three in the playoffs against the Niners.
Well, that was my last question. Is you know all that public money going there. It's plus two hundred on the money line for San Francisco. I don't think it's a crazy wager if you know it's not to go ahead with the forty nine Ers. It's one of those things where we look at and go, oh, all the public money, it feels like a all done deal.
It's not.
I think this game has some tightness potentially in it, and I would not be surprised that if Garoppolo does avoid catastrophic mistakes, that the forty nine Ers can pull out a victory here, even though it's in Green Bay and all of the other factors here. But I don't think it's investable for me personally, and I just won't bring that to light.
We're down to the best eight teams in the NFL, so all these games are going to be close. And would I be shocked if the Niners beat the Packers on the road. Absolutely not. I just think that you get a flawless Jimmy G game if he does that, and those are rare for Jimmy G.
And I think he's you can win the Super Bowl with him.
I think he's a good enough quarterback, but he is that Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, Brad Johnson, you know line of good enough quarterback, but he is not going to will you to win many games.
So, you know, I think.
That's where the big disconnect is. And you know, I enjoy trends. I think they're good and they're fun to look at, but I will never invest in a trend. You know, sometimes they pay out like that, you know, weird Jacksonville beating the Colts at home in Jacksonville since twenty fourteen. Sometimes they pay out like that. But how different is the twenty fourteen Jaguars to the twenty twenty one Wars Right, so unbelievable that I think that stuff
is vastly overrated. W Right, you have to live in the now exactly, especially because rosters turnover so frequently.
Passing props here, Jimmy Garoppolo to forty three and a half, Aaron Rodgers to sixty five and a half, Any interest in either of.
Those two numbers, Rogers over Jimmy under You're gonna win on the strength of the run game, if you The Niners.
Agreed with that.
Speaking of which, passing touchdowns Garoppolo one and a half, Rogers two and a half. That's pretty big number there.
For Rogers two and a half, I'm gonna stay away from.
You know, I think the numbers right, and he probably throws three touchdowns, but I'm not going to bet on it because you know, I mean, he just DeVante Adams steps out at the one, and here's Aaron Rodgers, Here's aj Dillon, here's Aaron Jones. You know, they have plenty of other ways to go, you know, bootleg to the tight end, you know, so many different ways to go
and scenario. So that's not what I'm gonna take. Although I did hit my I had the dak plus four hundred any time touchdown last week and I got there you go.
Also, there you go.
Let's go to the receiving props here, speaking of DeVante Adams his numbers ninety one and a half, Deebo Samuel's fifty four and a half, and George Kittle, who's been relatively quiet these last few weeks. On this forty nine run just forty eight and a half. So anything tempting on the over under forty eight Hittle for Kittle, Yeah, that's what I was looking at.
Kittle's the one, you know, and I know I said I'd take the under on Jimmy G's passing yards, but he passes to different guys in different games, in different scenarios, And last week Kittle was used mainly as a blocker. He's probably gonna be mainly a blocker in this game too. But if he catches three passes, he's getting over that forty eight and a half because I think at least two of them are going to go for twenty because he gets the ball and then runs some mffors over.
I mean, that's what Kittle does, right, So I think that is the most intriguing one to me of all of them.
Here's your combo number for Deebo Samuel, ninety three and a half over under.
One of the best offensive players in the league. I think you gotta take over. If it's less than one hundred, you got to take over on deepo every single week.
The other one I think is sneaky is that one Lazard thirty eight and a half. I would go over on that too. It's a good trend with La Sam vs is going to be out. That's one that I would lock in now. I think that's a very good That would be the biggest gimme, Like, if you're going to try to like run up the Deebo DeVante Adams and you need a third one, Lazard would be the other one for me. I think that's the way I would go. All right, let's move on from Saturday to
Sunday's games. NFC matchup at three o'clock Eastern. The Los Angeles Rams taking on the Tampa Bay Bucks and defending rating undisputed champions of the World. Are three point favorites in this one. Forty eight and a half is the number. So the Rams finally showed up. So that's great. Dominated, Yeah, they dominated, But do it does it travel? That's the question here, Bogs, that's a huge question up and can they go to Tampa and win on the road. I say, no, what say you?
There's no way I'm betting against Tom Brady. But I'll tell you what, I don't like betting this game. And because right now we don't know if Tristan Wirfs or Ryan Jensen are gonna end up playing for Tampa Bay. Losing two offensive linemen is enormous. Leonard Fournette also not trending in the right direction, it seems like right now, so he is a maybe in this game, it looks like. So, you know, those are big pieces to lose for Tampa Bay. And look, the Rams won and they were at home.
You didn't have to have Matt Stafford do a bunch for them to win that game. Kyler Murray more lost that than Matt Stafford would not won it. You know, he didn't make the big mistakes that he had been making, been handed out turnovers like their Christmas gifts, you know, previous three weeks before that game, and it was kind of weird to watch this offense kind of crumble in on itself. So I'm I think you can do that to beat the Cardinals when they're shooting themselves in the foot.
You're not gonna get that from Tom Brady.
You know, so I think that Safford makes a mistake or two in this game that cost the Rams the game, and I you know, it's just impossible to bet against Brady in the playoffs. So give me Tampa Bay and give me the under in this game, just because that Rams defense did look good. And we have question Offen some line of stuff going on with Tampa Bay right now, and Matt Stafford hasn't is not playing at his peak. So all that adds up to me taking Tampa Bay in the under in this game.
Yeah, the under I think is the most appealing wager in this game to the under forty eight and a half. I'm in locks up with you again here, and this is very rare that we're, you know, both kind of seeing everything.
Only one more.
Game to go. We'll differ on this one. I feel like, I don't know.
We'll see, we'll see.
I didn't think we're gonna differ as much as I think we're gonna be in locks up so much. Excuse me on the Cincinnati game, But I also you know, it took a big game for Odell Beckham stepping up, and again I don't think that's something you can look every single week to and rely on if you're the Rams. And I feel like the Rams felt like they accomplished something last week, and I don't think they have yet. I think that's the other big takeaway from watching that game on Monday is.
They look at us, we're dominating. Look, Hey, we're the best team.
No, well there's been you know, mcveigh's taking this team to the super Bowl. Obviously a pretty different roster at Patriot then. I mean, but but I mean it doesn't matter. Tom Brady's just in this. By the way, our boy Bubba uh broke me off this stat which I didn't realize that Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers have the same amount of victories against the NFC in the playoffs. So uh isn't that crazy that I knew that one would bring a big old smile.
To year face. So yeah, one year in the NFC, by the way for Brady, So all right, I guess one and a half.
And a half. Right, yeah, all right, God, that's that's wow.
Isn't that great?
That's amazing? Alright?
Passing props here, Tom Brady to eighty six and a half Stafford two seventy nine and a half.
I would go the under on both of.
These, Yeah, pass on both them. I I don't gun.
In my head, I'd probably take the over on Stafford under on Brady, just because I expect the Rams to be losing this game and playing catch up late. So that's where you get those big chunk yards and things from Matt Stafford.
But I would want to mess with you to one of them.
Cooper Cup one two and a half for the passing prop your thoughts.
I mean, you just take Cooper Cup and go over just you know, that's the one weakness Tampa Bay has, and maybe the offensive lineman too, but the secondary has not been the best this year, so that's the one weakness. You know.
Jamel Dean lined up on Cooper Cup, He's gonna torch him.
So well, that's my figure too, is if you get if you can at least contain Cooper Cup, then you force them to beachy with Odell and other guys like that. And I'm I'm still not sold that they can. I'm just not not And last week didn't sell me enough on that. I guess that's the point. There not a lot of rushing pops available for this game too, because the Backfield's kind of in motion, so to speak, so
none of them have really been released. The only one I can find right now is actually Tom Brady, so that's not one that we want to get too much into, all right, last, but certainly not least if you like points, this should be at least theoretically the game for you now. Of course, I say should be, and oftentimes these games can be very disappointing. What looks like a shootout on
paper between two big time offenses oftentimes disappoints. I don't think this one's going to six thirty pm Eastern, the Kansas City Chiefs are going to host the Buffalo Bills. The Chiefs are just one and a half point favorites, which I think they should take a little personally because they are the team that's gone to the Super Bowl and won a Super Bowl recently. I think they deserve a little bit more respect than they're getting. The number
is fifty three and a half. I think this is an over but Bogs, I've thought real long and hard on this one, and to me, I'm siding with the
side of the Chiefs here. I think there's a lot of emotion came out of last week I think it's gonna be a little bit of a letdown yet again for the Buffalo Bills, where I think all the years and years of getting beat up by the Patriots all just kind of came out and it just kind of overflowed, and I just wonder if you can inflate the bubble again and do it on the road against Patrick Mahomes. I don't think at the end of the day they're
going to I really don't. I would love if the Bills made it to the Super Bowl because they were my pick, but I feel like this is possibly the end here for them. What are your thoughts on Bills Chiefs?
We're four for four, Joe, I can't believe it.
I thought, for sure, after watching your team get dominated by the Bills, you're gonna pick the Bills. But I watched my team get dominated by the Chiefs, and I'm going to pick the Chiefs too. What I think happened in the second half the second quarter, excuse me of the Steelers Chiefs game, is that the Chiefs woke up. We haven't seen Patrick Mahomes look this good in a couple months, and he just looked out. Stanny couldn't miss in the second half. You know, the Steelers couldn't do anything.
They couldn't stop an offensive lineman. You know, the Bills obviously are a better team than Pittsburgh, and it's gonna make it a much closer game, which is why this is only a point and a half. And the Bills, look, they were literally flawless against New England. You know everything that seven for seven touchdown, drives.
To throw a ball out of the end zone and Dawson Knox just catches it for a touchdown.
I mean literally everything.
And you knew that game was over from the moment Hide made that interception, that peg, that was it.
That was it.
That was the moment where you go, okay.
It's such a great play.
I thought that was a good throw by Macrow, but they were already such a great play.
By anticipated it. He was the right place at the right time POGs and I just feel like that's a very crucial emotional moment at home for that fan base, for Josh Allen specifically too. And now you've got to pump up the balloon again and go on the road.
That's tough. If this was in Buffalo, I might feel differently.
I think I would feel differently if it was in Buffalo. But it's going to be a Kansas City. You know, Kansas City has great home field advantage, and you know, I mean the weather's not going to affect Buffalo at all. Obviously coldest sitting in the NFL Buffalo. But you know, I think that I think what you're really going to see here is a mismatch of you know, losing Trey White was such a big thing for Buffalo earlier this year, and you know they've been able to withstand that. I
think it's going to be exposed here. Plus, you know, Travis Kelce versus Tremaine Edmonds or whoever. You're gonna have to pick your poison. And that's what makes the Chiefs so dynamic. And uh Stopper is.
Going to be back for this game, it looks like too.
So they're getting him back in help right full practice on Wednesday.
When Patrick Mahomes gets going like that, they're damn near unsoppable. The only team that could stop him last year was Tampa Bay in the in the Super Bowl and they were still like, there's still video of the Bucks going, how the hell did he do that?
You know, and they can stop the Chiefs.
The Chiefs defense, That to me is always the undoing potentially of the Chiefs. The Chiefs defense can stop the Chiefs.
That's it.
That is the biggest I think negative side of this. I just don't think they're gonna do that in this game. I just don't. I feel like you're right.
I think they woke the You're gonna have to have a you know, Stefan Diggs is gonna have to do what Jamar Chase did to the Chiefs, which is in the realm of possibility. You know, Dawson Knox also becoming a superstar like Travis Kelsey is, so they have It's very similar these two teams.
But this is why they're in this spot.
I think this is definitely an over just because both these offenses have been so they're they're both clicking on all cylinders right now. But I just I'm not going to bet against Mahomes, I'm not gonna bet against Brady. I think those are pretty safe assumptions in the playoffs.
I agree with you. Let's dig a little deeper here into some of these numbers. Player passing at yards the props here, we got Mahomes to eighty one and a half Josh Allen to eighty and a half. That's a big number there for Allen. I think I would go under on the two eighty. What are your thoughts there?
This perfect number. I wouldn't bet them, but I would go over on both.
I just I think that both these offenses are going to click here, So I go over on both.
Patrick Mahomes at two and a half for the passing touchdowns, but Josh Allen just at one and a half. That one I like. And I understand this variables with Singletary and him bringing the ball, and I kind of I mean, that's basically asking for trouble. I would take that trouble one and a half on the Allen side. I like that more than either of the receiving numbers that we just talked the same excuse to be the passing numbers we just talked about.
I agree with you on that. What is what's Josh Allen's rushing number?
Rushing props for this game? Josh Allen numbers fifty and a half.
Oh my god, two and a half, Okay, on a fifty and a half is probably what he'll get. So there's no way I bet it. If it was thirty thirty five somewhere in that range. I was going to say hammer that, but no, I can't fifty and a half nine and a half. So I would rather take Singletary by a wide margin in that one. And what do you say, Mahomes was twenty four and a half.
I'm not doing that twenty five? Yeah, nah, no thanks?
So, yeah, I remember he got he got nicked up. I think in the Division round last year, hurt his knee and it wasn't as mobile, you know, going into the ACU Championship and the Super Bowl. So I don't think I think you're trying not to run Mahomes if you avoid it.
Tyreek Hill seventy and a half or the receiving prop Kelsey seventy and a half, Stefan Diggs seventy two and a half. Which of these three do you like the most?
If any Hill?
I like Tyreek Hill, And you know because he'll gets that on three catches, you know, because he's the deep the deep threat. So if he catches four or five balls, you know, he's almost assured to pass this. And I just don't think really anybody in the league, maybe Jalen one on one can stop Tyreek, but not many guys gonna stop him.
All right, there you have it.
Make sure you check out bettingpros dot com for all of our latest information on all the wagering and all the lines at all the different houses there. Anywhere you want to place your bet, you could do it at bettingpros dot com. So go ahead and check it out today. And Bogman, I'll be next week here yet again to talk about the Championship games. I can't believe it. It flies so quickly. I feels it really does fly by.
But this should be a very entertaining four games, and I think the peak game there is going to be that Sunday night one for sure, So look for something strange there. But Bogmin and I are going to be riding or dying together here.
Yeah, I know, my goodness, Just stand back. Well, I hope, I hope we're right, Boggs. Yea, I hope we're right.
We picked that one where we feel like I think it's gonna go sideways. Maybe Saturday gets interesting at the end of the day, the Packers win, and then we like the two home.
Yeah, you hope you're wrong about the Packers. I hope I'm wrong about the Bangles, so we're going there.
We go all right, that'll do it for us, But the story of the game goes on for Scott Bogman.
I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids,