Hey, everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast. I'm your host Dan Harris with me is Matt Perrault. Find us on Twitter at Dan Harris ad and at Sports Talk Matt. Matt, how are you?
We got T shirts for the Daily Juice. I'm great.
You are so excited about the Daily Juice T shirts.
I know.
Look, if you listen to this, you hopefully listen to Daily Juice, which we talked about a lot. Daily podcast hosted by Matt finally got T shirts that everybody has been asking about. You can find them at fantasypros dot com slash shop. Just look for the newest items. It's one of our newest I mean, Matt on Discord, they were going like hot gigs. I mean I checked in on your the Daily Juice channel and everybody just like, I got two. I'm getting one here. I like this.
I've already gotten requests for sweatshirts. People in Chicago were like, I need sweatshirts. It's too I was like, you want sweatshirt? I was like, let's walk first, Okay, Like I just just got the T shirts, Like eventually hats, Eventually we'll get sweatshirts. We'll get all sorts of fun stuff going. And people were like throwing out slogans they want on the back of the shirt and whatnot, Like all right, like we'll have runs one, two, and three. This is just like the beginning, just the start.
Well, I were producer of this show. Clinton hard working guy and begged me not to throw him shot up, but I am anyway, was the one who finally got the shirts up and running, and he produces the show, so he's listening. So Clinton, you got it. Now we need everything. We need hats, we need sweatshirts, we need slogans, so we will get on that. Shud.
Sorry the record, Clinton, I'm very happy you just have the T shirts. Well, thank you for so.
Matt WANs more. Matt wants more. It's very clear he is not satisfied until he's got like her. I don't know, he's got a banner flying it, you know, with an airplane or something like that. All right, let's get into it. It's the divisional rounds to only four games, so it's probably gonna be a little bit of a shorter show than usual, but we'll break down each game. But last week, Matt, we were really not not we did not have last week. I don't think most people had last week correct as
far as I could tell. But let's just talk about the official picks that we made yesterday, and we have to if we don't have to, actually, would you prefer to skip? It?
Were better?
Your yours were better than mine. My official picks were we did one spread, one over under, and one teaser. My spread was the Bills lank six and a half. That was wrong. My over under was the Bucks and the Washington football team under forty four and a half, which was a loss. Thankfully. My two team teazer did hit, which was the Bills down to only a pick which was half a point. That was pretty close, and the Bucks down to lane two and a half. So that
did hit. Matt. You had the Steelers laying five and a half in that game, forget about. I don't even know what to say. And that was on me. I was you were very much like I have some minor trepidation, and I was like, why they have no coach, They're not practiceding, it's gonna be great. That was ridiculous. You had the Bills at the podcast, Matt, you had it over fifty one. So that's a push, right, you added fifty one and a half.
I bet the and a half. It was just the story of my last two weeks has been half unit losses. It's been brutal.
Well, you also hate your teaser, which was the Bill's minus half a point and the Rams getting nine and a half. I have already bet a two team teaser, so I will give that later. But let's start it off. Let's go to the Rams visiting the Packers. That's the first game of the week. Right now, the Packers are laying six and a half points. A little surprising to me that this hasn't jumped back up to seven, because it kind of has been back and forth a little bit.
So it's at six and a half. I'm not saying it's a bad line. I just think that they're from what I could tell, the Packers seem to be pretty heavily bet considering all the issues that are going on.
So why so let's let's play bookmaker? Yes, why wouldn't If the line is six and a half stagnant and all the money's coming in on the Packers, what does that tell you.
That what that the books think that the Rams are going to cover? All? Right?
Yeah, the are live here in this game.
Do you think that they're got that that bookmakers think that chance to win the game?
Yes?
Goodness? All right, So first of all, the over unders at forty five and a half. Here's the deal. Wolford is out right, he's been ruled out completely. So it's Goff with Blake Bortles. Back them up Goff as much as they want. You were on that game, Matt. You you had a good feel for that Rams game. We both liked him at three and a half for sure, but you did think that they had the chance to win out right. Their defense is legitimate. I guess Aaron
Donald today was taking off the injury report. I still find it very difficult to believe that he's one hundred percent healthy, particularly with the cold whatever he's got, with the rib injury. Cooper Cup is battling, you know, the knee. You've got Jared Goff who kind of looked like he was me pushing the ball, you know, down the field, and just I don't know, I'm surprised. I guess that the that they think it's like, have you talked to anybody,
do you have a good sense of why? And do you think that the Rams are alive to win this game.
Yes, I think the Rams are allowed to win the game. I think the Rams are allowed to cover the spread. And the number is seven. So so last week on the podcast, everybody was talking to me about the Washington football team and Tempa Bay Bucks, right, and I told everybody here on the podcast the number was nine. Nine was the number where the bad guys were coming in and dropping large sums. What did the line? What did the game end at? Eight? Okay, same thing here. Seven's
the number. It went to seven for like a second in Vegas and they got it, just blitzed with money, tons of money on plus seven. That's the number I want. I want plus seven. I may have to buy it to get there. Yeah, seven is the number for the Rams. And then it comes down to whether or not that defense can turn the football over. I think it's a twenty four to twenty type of victory. I think the
number for the total is right there. I wouldn't touch that, I wouldn't go near it, but I think you might go, well, how are the Rams gonna score? One? Akers running the football? Two dink and dunk? Okay, and look it's Lambeau. Could we get a freak snowstorm. Could we get really cold. I mean, let's see what the weather looks like before we bet it. But the worse the weather, the better it is here, in my opinion, for the Rams defense to be able to keep the game close, Ramsey could
take away potentially. Now you could say Ramsey does great against DK Metcalf. DeVante Adams is a different story. He's quick twitch, he's very smooth, he's very quick in and out of the brakes. He's tough to guard crue true, but if footing's a problem, Ramsey may be able to stay with them a little bit more. And if you take him out of the equation and you make somebody
else beat you. I'm not saying that there aren't mvs can't do it, but I think the Rams are pretty comfortable, you know, worrying about MBS versus DeVante Adams here, So I just wonder about possessions. Can the Rams keep the football away and can the Rams not turn the ball over? That is the biggest It's a key in every game, but to me, it's the biggest key in this game. If they don't turn the ball over, they're going to be in the game.
Yeah, this is I think you have it right. Everything you've said I think is exactly right. If I am forced to pick a side on the total, which again I think is right on at forty five and a half, I actually kind of would lean under. I'm very gun shy on unders right now because of last week where it felt like right, it felt like there were a
couple of unders and just didn't really come close. So with this one, though, I do think because I think you're right, I think you're going to see a whole lot of cam akers as you have seen over the last several weeks for the Rams, but especially with Goff. And again that is how you attack Green Bay is
their run defense. Now, I think that it The issue for me is if Cup is not healthy for this game, even if he plays, but he's limited in this game, then you're gonna be able to stick j R. Alexander on Robert Woods and you're going to be able to kind of sell out to stop the run and then say, all right, Jared Goff, we're going to take away your one legitimate wide receiver. Good luck beating us elsewhere, you know, And if they can do that, then they can do that.
But I don't see the Rams being able to put up a ton of points in this game absence some sort of defensive score, which you can't really count on with Rogers. But the reason I kind of lean towards the under is that exact thing, which is they're gonna run the ball time, that's gonna bleed the clock as
much as possible. And I don't think that the Packers are going to be able to just drive down the field that you know, you've seen these games, right the Bucks game with Rogers right where Oh my goodness, what in the world you get pressure on Rogers every once in a while, and now all of a sudden, that
Green Bay offense doesn't really work. So for me, I lean the under, but I wouldn't touch it because I think, you know, forty five and a half, just with the way the game is right now, I wouldn't go near it if I had to choose the side. Are you basically saying that you're staying away from the side unless it gets to seven, in which case you take the Rams.
Right, I need seven. I want seven to feel comfortable because I am concerned about the ability for the Rams to score. I think people who are questioning saying I don't see the Rams scoring more than seventeen points. I'll give you that. I think I think the total is right. I think the Rams are gonna have to play the game that they played last week, and they're gonna have to play defense. And their defense is you know, they need short fields. They need Aaron Donald to be Aaron Donald,
whether he's a one hundred percent or not. They need him to be double teamed, and they got to be, you know, making the Packers worry about him every single snap and then other players go and make plays and hopefully you know, either pressure Rogers or stripsacks or whatnot and get after it. Rogers is you know, it's always difficult to look at him off of a bye week, in the cold weather, in the playoffs. I mean, just there are a ton of things pushing that the Packers
are going to be extremely public in every teaser. This is the Steelers all over again. Okay, everyone is teasing this game down to a half a point and taking the Packers. So that's my only concern about this game is just the numbers not moving, and there the liability keeps on stacking up and up and up. And I've been a fan of this Rams team all year, and I just wish it was John Whalferd because if it was John Walford a quarterback, I would I would be taking the Rams outright.
That's actually what I was a little surprised that. I thought when Walford wouldn't was declared out that that might move into seven right right, it still didn't.
Nothing, not even a tick, not even touch nothing. I was like, okay, that's interesting.
Out of curiosity. Do you know what it's going to take to buy the half a point to get from six and a half to.
Probably be one thirty to forty would be my guest would be somewhere in that general range in terms of cost. I mean, it's not going to be cheap to do it, but I think in terms of avoiding losing versus pushing, it might be worth it.
Yeah. No, no, I get it. I because I have not been so basically to sum it up as much as possible, I don't love either anything in this game, like just where it is right now at six and a half and at forty five and a half, I don't like it either side. I lean the under really,
I just don't have a good sense. I think the Packers are going to win this game, okay, and I could see it being you know, a you know, a double digit win for the Packers, but it is so public, and you're right, I mean that just screams tease us down to a half point, right and then so for that makes me a little nervous.
So scary, that's what's scary. See the thing about right now is all of the data, all the information. These lines are as razors sharp as they of all year. This is the weekend the public gets destroyed. Last weekend that got destroyed too, But this is normally the weekend they get annihilated because all the data. You just see that line, it looks so tempting. Oh Packers under a touchdown? Oh Rogers, of course, how are they gonna score? And then we're gonna be sitting here. It's gonna be like
a twenty one seventeen type of game. And it's like, oh they knew right?
Yeah, no, I I get it. I mean I wonder whether or not if you do involvement in the teaser, would you rather tease the rams up?
Yes? Twelve and a half, I would, yes, and I would, and again I would hope that we can you cross a key number of seven across key number of ten, so the couple of key numbers you cross there by doing that. But it's it's a hard it's a hard game. I'm looking at debate that it's a really hard game.
Yeah, yeah, I agree. It's one that I don't really want to go near. And I'd feel a lot better about it if this doesn't feel like they're just begging you to do to take the Packers and to tease the Packers down to half a point. That does make me worried. I do still think that the Packers are going to win this game. That's particularly true because I don't believe. I'm glad Donald is off the injury report, but you saw him last week. That dude's like the
toughest due in the NFL. He really struggled last week. It's hard for me to believe that he's one hundred percent, particularly going now to the cold and you've got Cup and now you've got golf like all of that. Just as sort of I can't talk myself into the Packers. Let's go to the next game. Interesting one. I'm interested here how you feel you've been fading the bills for most of the year. You've got the Ravens visiting the Bills.
Right now, the Bills are laying two and a half, which has kind of bounced back and forth a little bit between two and two and a half. The total. What I'm saying is it's dropped now to forty nine and a half. It was fifty when I looked early in the day. So what do you think of this game?
I'm all over the Ravens, all all over the Ravens. This is where having a outdoor game in Buffalo, New York burns the Bills because they're not built for it. It's cold, it's not gonna be nice. You got an issue with the knee for Cold Beasley. You've got a defense that's got a secondary that's playing really well, that can take away digs, and you're gonna put it on a running game that only is the quarterback. Because of injury and ineffectiveness for the Buffalo Bills, the Ravens were
the best team going into this year. Everyone loved the Ravens. They had COVID problems, they had bad losses, they didn't look right. Well, they're right now, and I think having a running quarterback in this type of weather. This is the guy you want, This is the play you want, This is the MODI, this is what you want to have happen. You want a guy like Lamar Jackson in the game in a cold weather situation. I know he
doesn't like the cold. I don't care. Okay, in his career, I think under forty degrees, he's seven to zho straight up in temperatures below forty. So it's not like he can't play in this game. I this is just you can say, Matt, it's a typical fading of of Jared. Josh Allens is going to come back and burn me. But if I may have to buy it to three, but I will be on the Ravens money line in this game.
Yeah, I don't have a great feel for it. Again, like I hate to say that if I do go one way, I do kind of lean the under, just because I think that, you know, forty nine and a half, just again betting on I haven't bet the under. I'm probably not gonna bet the under. I lean the under, but again, betting unders. Right now, I'm doing whatever I can to avoid it because it's just not where we are. But you know, I think these teams kind of match up,
at least defensively pretty well. I mean, the Ravens defense is playing very, very solid football at this point. I mean you saw Derek Henry couldn't do anything, and again you mentioned it correctly. The Bills can't run the ball, and Zach Moss's out anyway, and he is their better runner. So it's just going to be Devin Singletary, maybe TJ. Yeldon. Josh Allen is fantastic, Stefan Diggs is fantastic. They'll find a way to put up points because their offense is creative,
you know, with their system and everything like that. The Ravens obviously you attack the Bills for the most part. The Bills defense, when you just step back from it, you're like, well, this doesn't match up well, Like we have a great outside corner. But really, like, even if you take away Hollywood Brown, depending on where Hollywood Brown runs out of, they're not great against tight ends necessarily. I mean, they're not a complete shutdown defense against tight ends.
Mark Andrews should be fine in the game. They don't stop the run particularly well. The Ravens love to run, so on paper, it doesn't look like a fantastic matchup. But you remember last year the Bills weren't that great against the run either, and they played the Ravens I think last year, and they they held Lamar in check for the most part, you know, not completely shut them down,
but they know how to play this offense. So I do think that this is going to be a game that's going to be generally speaking, pretty low scoring, a little bit like the Titans and then and the Ravens. So I kind of lean towards the ender. If I had to pick a side, I don't. I don't have a great feel for it. Matt, Like, I mean, you're confident, I mean confident in quotation marks you confident that the Ravens are going to win this game? Yes, okay, is
this your favorite play of the week Ravens? No? Oh, okay, very good. Then I will I will put it out there that if I'm forced to choose a side, I'm gonna go with the Bills. And this is not I don't feel great about it. And again I'm just being as honest with you guys as possible. I have not bet this game, like I haven't because I don't have a good feel for it. I can see the Ravens. But I do see a scenario where the Bills kind
of just completely sell out to stop the run. And look, the Titans kind of did the same thing last week, and they did they held him in check until they didn't because Lamar Jackson is just a complete freaking nature on the ground and.
Alma though, don't don't don't sell the wide receivers that short here. I mean, I know Lamar played poorly in the first quarter throwing that jump ball down down the field. That wasn't good, But he really played well after that. I mean, he settled down, he really played well.
He did, he did, he did, But it's just, you know, it's again I think that at the Bills offense and just how well coached they are, and how good Josh Allen is and how good Stefan Diggs is. I know the corners are great for Baltimore, but you know, part of me thinks I was a little surprised with the with the Titans, for example, why they got away from Brown right like they didn't. They went to Brown early, he had the touchdown and then you didn't really see
all that much from him. Again, I think, you know, Diggs is borderline uncoverable at this point. So I do expect the Bills to put a point and if they can get a lead, and if they're home, I think it's going to be a little tougher for Jackson to come back.
But again, they came back now ten on the road last week.
Yeah, very true, very true, But.
That narrative's gone that they can't up back on the road.
Uh, you're absolutely right, And that's why I said, I don't think like they can't. I think though, that they're playing a team that has a better defense now, because I know the Bills defense. You you're right, you you had that a couple of weeks ago. I was I was getting very very high on the Bills defense, and you kind of talked me down, and you were correct because they did not improve nearly as much at least as they shown lately. But they're facing a bet offense
or more explosive offense and a better defense. So this is one where I think if they did fall down, it had more than ten, because ten, you can stick with it. But it's a fair point. I just I don't have a great feel for it. If I have to go someplace, I'm gonna go with the Bills, who I've kind of been backing a little bit for a while at this point. They weren't that good last week at all. But yeah, it's a game I'm staying away from.
You like the Ravens little more. What do you think, by the way, the total forty nine and a half.
I mean, if I had to bet it, I probably would bet the under, just because I think it's going to be one of those games where the clock's running constantly, but because I think everyone's gonna expect points. So I think the whole the public's gonna go off blow fifty. Give me the over, and I don't know if they score thirty. They score twenty seven last week, so I think Buffalo probably scores, you know, somewhere in the lower twenties, and the Ravens somewhere right in the same area, you know,
twenty four. I see this as like a twenty four to twenty three game one way or the other.
Yeah, no, I agree, And that's why I lean the under. Again, I'm not betting it because there's really only you know, I don't like you Saturday. I'm gonna more enjoy football. I probably will do a very minor teas piece with that Packers game, and I'll probably be very public with it and tease the Packers down to a half point. But yeah, this one, I'm just gonna more enjoy. Let's go to the Sunday games. The Chiefs are laying ten right now to the Browns. That total is at fifty
seven right now. It's fifty seven and a half at bet MGM, it's fifty eight at Sugarhouse, but it's fifty seven in our consensus line. So what do you think here.
You may hate that game with the Ravens and the Bills. I hate this game with the Browns and the Chiefs. The Chiefs have cost me so much money. I can talk my way into both sides that the Browns win this game outright, or this is a fifty point win for the Chiefs and it's an absolute route. I don't know what to do with this game. I'm scared to tease it because if the Chiefs do what they're capable of, sixteen is not enough and it's just a complete twenty
one point destruction and bye bye teasers. I'm concerned about teasing it down to four because I think it's the only way to tease this game is down to four. But I got this weird, sneaking suspicion that the Chiefs have been on ice skates, skating their way through their schedule, and all of a sudden, they're gonna take on a team that may feel like they got, you know, destiny on their side, and everything sometimes bounces go your way.
I've seen it. I watched the Patriots nineteen eighty six have no right to go through three teams on the road and make it to the super Bowl and get their doors blown off by the Bears. I've seen it. Okay, you can win games on the road and get complete fumble and turn over luck that gets you on your way to the super Bowl. I don't know. This game scares the holy heck out of me that the Cleveland Browns are gonna shock the world and beat the Chiefs. I'm not touching this game.
Yeah, so I don't think that they're gonna win. But I totally agree with you because I you know, I look, two team teasers at this point aren't fun. You know, the lines are so sharp, so when I look for them this game, there's no piece of it that I would feel comfortable teasing in either direction, right, Like I don't feel real great about the Browns getting sixteen, but I don't feel real great about the Chiefs laying for Like,
I don't really know what's gonna happen. I if I'm forced to pick aside, and again that's where we're basically at at this point, I would lean the Browns getting ten. Okay, I'd love it if it got to ten and a half. But I like them getting ten because again we've seen it. The Chiefs just don't have for the most part, or haven't yet this season, had the we are gonna lock
this thing up and it's gonna be done. But they're off a by this point out it's worth noting you remember last year, of course, what happened with the Texans and they fell way behind. They wound up winning, but they came out so flat yep, at this point. So the look. If the Chiefs are vulnerable on defense, it's on the ground. The Browns have a great running game, and Baker Mayfield has played really, really well this season.
If you take out the games where he either has no wide receivers to throw to or is not like a wind crazy game, they can keep this game close. The total is just nuts, Like fifty seven. I don't you know, it's a ridiculous total. Like again, it's something where I'm like, well, I think the value is probably on the under, but I'm not gonna bet it. So this is this game above all is probably now on the spread. The game I'm staying away from is the Bills and the Ravens. I have like leans on the
other one, Bills and Ravens. I'm just like, I don't know this one. The total I'm just totally saying away from. If I had to go, I think the Browns mat like getting ten because again, I just don't see this. I don't see the Chiefs coming out here. And just you know, even if they come weigh, if they get way ahead, you know, they just they've never finished it off right this whole year.
And now I just think it's got back door written all over it. It's got it's got falling apart in the fourth quarter written all over it. It's it's just has it has the recipe to be one of those games where at halftime we're laughing at the Browns Haha, you stink, And in the fourth quarter we're like, are you kidding me? Are they actually gonna blow this game or the Chiefs gonna lose like that. That's how I feel like this game is going to go. It's just absolutely crazy, all right.
So let's get to the last game, which you feel like you're probably eyeing. This is the game that I'm eyeing as well, So let's get to it. It's the Bucks visiting the Saints. The Bucks are getting three. This is one word. Oh, I don't where did it open, Matt?
Four?
I thought it opened at four. Okay, I thought I saw like an early line.
And a half at four. It was four at DraftKings, three and a half of most books Vegas. It's pretty much painted at three right now.
Yeah, and the consensus over under is fifty two. But it's basically fifty one and a half or fifty two. It's bouncing back and forth out of the Bucks. So, Matt, do you have strong positions on either one of these numbers? Okay, go ahead, go ahead. I hope we're on the same side.
Go right. So I've been talking about Tampa for a while now after the bye. If you look at the teams the Buccaneers have played after their bye week, which is causing everybody to jump up and down. They played the Vikings twice, they played the Lions once, and they beat Washington on the road last week. Those teams stink. Everyone thinking that the Bucks, Oh my gosh, they've righted the ship. Brady's right, everything's perfect. Well, no, okay, everything's
not perfect. There's still playing the same typical brand of football that they played all year, which is they beat up on bad teams and they lose to good teams. The last two good teams Tampa played was before the bye week with way the Chiefs and the Rams, and they lost both those games twenty seven to twenty four. This is a road game to the Saints. I do not care that they played three times. This is the
third time they're playing. I put no stock in the idea that it's hard to beat somebody three times in one season. I do not believe that Leonard Fournette or even Ronald Jones are gonna be able to run on that Saints defense. And when you can't run for the Bucks, they lose. Look at all their games they have lost. They can't run. They have to run in the first half.
I think Fournette got to his overall rushing prop in the first quarter last week against Washington that set everything else up for their offense and allowed them to throw the ball deep with play action and everything Brady does this Saints team, You're not running on these guys. And then they got guys in the back end who can at least make it difficult to get the ball to
Evans and company. I know Godwin played well, but I'm saying I'll say it again, this offense was better when they had Scotty Miller in the slot in Gronk going down the scene. And they don't do that anymore. Saints lay the three New Orleans wins.
Yeah, I'm on the other side. I'm on the other side of this.
This is a double bag game for people here in Vegas that I know that are weighing in. Wait and if it goes it ever goes to two and a half, If the public is dumb enough to get this thing to two and a half, watch how much money comes in on the Saints.
Oh, I do agree with that. I think if you get it under a field goal, I get I'm sure money is going to come in pouring on the Saints.
Then how can you be on Tampa at three? Then, because basically you're praying for it.
I'm not saying that. I'm not saying that they' I'm saying that the money is going to come in. I'm sure because that you get the home team in the plaids beaten this team twice. You've got the Bucks, who, for all the reasons that you said, have not been overly impressive, and they've been beating up on, you know, bad teams. And I think that if you're gonna give a team like the Saints at home to you know, under a field goal, that money is going to come in on the Saints. I am on the Bucks, and
I look, I get everything you're saying. Here's the thing, Matt, we you you liked Washington last week, right, like not not to necessary, you thought there was even a chance that they could win, but you weren't picking them to win or anything. But you liked them. Spread Why was that? Like? What? What did what did we think was gonna happen? Did you like their offense or did you like their defense and thinking to get pressure?
I like, I really wanted them. With Alex Smith at the quarterback spots, really was. I fell in love with it so phenomenally. He played incredibly well. So so I mean but going into the game, the reason why I was so high on it is because Alex Smith was going to play, and the Alex Smith was gonna make enough place to really help that team down the field. I mean, henecky missed him throws and he played. He played great. So there's a big caveat as to where
Washington was. Washington, I was actually really confused as to what they were doing and why they were running the same type of stunts, the same play over and over again when it wasn't getting home. And you said the offensive line played really well, I think I had more problems with the defensive line for Washington than the offensive line for I mean, Chase Young, why are you just lining him up in the same spot and having him run the same thing over and over again when he
was getting taken care of by the left tackle. It was driving me. Get the guy, move him around, use him in different ways. He's incredibly difficult him up against a running back. He'll run the guy over. So yeah, I'm not worried about the Saints lack of pressure because you have to again, you have to run the ball. If you know, if you're the Tampa Bay Bucks, you have to run the football and you're not gonna run on the Saints.
Yeah, I hear what you're saying. I put less of the blame on the Washington defensive line and more of the credit to the Bucks offensive line with Margaret Back. I really think that that offensive line now is in the position where they're going to be able to protect Brady. And if you protect Brady, I don't care how about anything else about a defense. I really don't. If you give Brady time, he will find the open guy. And
then I mean you look, you talked about the receivers. Yeah, you've got Evans who's banged up, and Marshawn Lattimore generally shuts him down. Godwin played pretty poorly. I mean, I don't know how many drops he had in that game. He didn't play all that well. Gronk isn't involved. But you know who is pretty involved and who looks really good, as much as I hate to admit it, is Antonio Brown. He does, he has been. He looks great, and I
think they've got enough now. I agree. If ron Jones returned to practice, I don't know if he's gonna play, but I agree it's going to be very, very difficult for Leonard Fournette to run against the Saints. I agree with that, But I also think that the Bucks defense, as much as they you know, didn't look good, you know, against Taylor on I think a lot of that was that they probably prepared for Alex Smith to play and he would Bucks defense. Really I don't.
But on the right as the Saints against three last game ever, potentially loses his career is done. It's how many?
How many times, though have we seen the Saints have games where we thought they were going to win in the playoffs and they just didn't against the Vikings. And right now you've seen Drew Brees. You've watched all these games, right, do you feel confident in Drew Brees right now being able against a critical throw if they can get every.
Okay with Michael Thomas, with Michael Thomas on the on on the field against that secondary, yes, I do.
I think that's fine the Bucks. The biggest thing with the Bucks is that they are not only good against running backs running the ball, they are good against pass catching running backs, including Alvin Kamara. Like that is what I expect to happen now. I don't think either defense is going to be able to shut either offense down.
I think, who's the kid that had the breakout game? Who I'm blanking on? His name for the Saints. The scatback who had a crazy game last week? Uh the Saint week? Yeah, I'm blanket on I'm blanking against the Bears. He had a huge game last week against the Bears. Who has been hurt most of the entire year. And everyone will be like, where has this guy been all season?
I haven't. I wasn't watching the game all that closely, so I'm sorry. If I need to look at them, go ahead, look it up, then look it up then and find who it is. But where I'm coming from is I think both of these teams are going to be able to put up points. But I don't think. Look the Saints, you know they Harris. Deontay Harris is not a guy.
Oh dude. He had seven catch If you didn't watch the game close, he had seven catches for eighty three yards. He was averaging twelve yards per catch, and he was unbelievable in the scene.
Harris, I'm I'm well aware of the fact that Deontay Harris having seven catches in eighty three yards against the Bears does not make me say WHOA.
Whose defense is better? Bears are Tampa?
Maybe the Bears?
Maybe WHOA?
Yeah, Maybee the Bears.
You. I'll make this bet right now. The Saints score more than twenty one points against Tampa.
I have no I'm not saying that they won't.
I'm not and they listen twenty one of the Bears.
Do you think the Bucks are going to score more than twenty one on the Saints?
I don't know. I really, I really don't know.
I I so you probably like the under in this game.
I would lean towards the under. Yeah, I mean I would. I I'm not playing totals this week at all.
I'm not touching I.
Got tot o win three last week. I'm not touching him. I was a half. I had fifty one and a half in the Bills game. This that I the two unders and the other two game and I miss those. I'm not touching totals this week. I'm staying far away. But I think this Saints team laying a field goal at home. I think Drew Brees he just threw for two sixty five and twenty eight of thirty nine. I think Kamara is gonna have a big running game. I
think he's gonna have a big catching game. I love Deontay Harris to open up the middle of the field.
I love that Deontay Harris is like their key.
Oh yeah, so bad. I'm telling you he was such a big deal. He was a huge Heck, even even Bruce Arians talked about it this week that their offense having because he didn't play any other games, that he's a total game changer for them because of how quick he is and how fast he can get to the corner. I'm telling you that this is Ravens plus two and a half in Saints minus three. Are are my two favorite plays of the week.
All right, hold on, I'm looking up not available on draftings. So I was trying to look up his prop for you on receiving yards for Deontay Harris.
He'll he'll be there.
Better right now. You can bet it right now? Yeah. Look, okay, So you love the Saints and three and I like the Bucks. I'd love it and I got it when it first, so I got it three and a half. So for me, that's where I was in on them at three and a half, and I actually tease them up to nine and a half, so that that's part.
Of the mind not play. I mean, I don't mind, I don't mind teasing them up. I think it's a touchdown game, Max.
So yeah, I look there, Look, there is a plausible way, because we've seen it before with the two teams, that they completely destroy them like that. The Saints just come in.
I would I would be very surprised to watch any Tom Brady team get destroyed in the playoffs.
So I think, really what this comes down. And as much as you and I are going back and forth, I don't really think like we're well off. I you sound like you're giving zero credit to the Bucks defense.
Is that I don't think the best defense is any good. I really don't.
So I think the Buck.
That the Washington football team moved the ball in the Washington football team, if they had one other wide receiver, probably win that game.
I think that if the Bucks defense played like they played last week, you're absolutely right. I just for me, I think that that was tar about And you know again that that game I was like glued to. I have a very close friend who's a Bucks fan, so we we sort of watch all the games. I'm like a quasi Bucks fan whatever, But I do think that they played absolutely.
Oh so you have a fandom interest in this game now, I see it.
Now as somebody who bet against the Jets every single time I could. My fandom does not weigh in on how I placed my wagers. But I watched the game close and we were screaming at the at the defense like it was a terribly called game by Bulls. But I really I think it was much more because they they didn't know what to expect from Heineke and they weren't prepared for it. I think their defense, we know they can stop the run, we know that. I mean,
can they take away Kamara? I don't know for sure, but they are really really good elite at stopping the run and at pass catching back, so I think if you can take them Ora out of the way. Michael Thomas looked good, looked healthy, So that is an issue absolutely. But again, Drew Brees throws lollipops out there. I don't think this is the type of offense anymore. That's just gonna be able to three seconds drive the ball down the field and score, you know, all the time they want.
But more importantly, I think the Bucks are going to be able to score in this game. I really do. And my teaser, which by the way, is the same game teaser which we'll get to, is going to be the bucks up to nine and a half, and I'm gonna take the total down and go with the over, which is the total down to forty five and a half. So that is my two team teasers.
I mean teasing that total down to forty five, take the over, and that I do. I do direct, I do like the second.
So that's that's really what I like. I haven't gotten out there and gotten like this is mine. I'm going crazy with the with the bucks. That is gonna be my pick though for and it sounds like it's gonna be your pick, So that is gonna be like the one thing I know, but that is gonna be my my teaser. Is that way. I think that this is gonna be a close game. I think they're gonna hang with it, and so I think realistically, I think the most likely outcome is probably the Saints winning a very
close game within three points. So that's why I think it's gonna go. I think the offense is gonna stick with it.
So yeah, you're taking three and a half So from an audience standpoint, you're betting with me because the audience can't get three and a half. The audience not getting three and a half again.
Correct, So I'm taking three, So.
You're riding with me minus three for the Saints.
No, I'm taking the bucks getting three. Okay, I'm still going. Look here's I don't like any of the.
Saints are gonna win by three, So how could you do?
No, no, no, no, I said the Saints. I think are gonna win a close game. I think they'll probably win by what I'm all These lines are very sharp, Matt, like that. That's what we've talked about, right, There's no I'm not coming here. I'm like, I've got such good value on this line right now, Like if you got me.
Way better than three, if you like I have three, right, I have it at three and a half.
As a personal matter, But we are doing this show, right, it's not going to get back to three and a half. No, we know that there's no way it's getting back to three and a half, So we can't recommend saying it so for purposes of the show. Using the bettingpros dot Com consensus lines, which shows you the lines from every available sports book. It's at three. I still like it at three because Matt, if I'm if, I kind of think that the Bucks are going to win this game,
so that that's where I'm coming from. Look, I have a future on the Saints winning the Super Bowl, so I'm rooting for the Saints in that sense, but I kind of think it good heads, We're going to win this game, so.
It's a good head.
That's where I'm at.
Yeah, it's ahead, so I think it works.
Yeah, but that's where I'm all right, So let's go. Let's go to our official then plays. Matt will do one spread, one total, and then one two teams or teaser if you want to do teaser. So my mind where I guess we'll just be on opposite sides. It is my guess. But my favorite line is the Bucks getting three and yours is what is it? The Saints laying three?
Correct?
All right? Perfect?
Really? And I may buy to two and a half though, but.
Yeah, that's fine for the purpose of this is self. Actually, I could see getting into three. You know, that might be right because when I look at the DraftKings, it's minus one twenty nine to get to three. And a half at this point, that might be something which maybe I should just recommend.
That going up buying it to buying it one buying it to three and a half. That's not bad. I mean, the hook is a big deal. I mean that's yeah, it's always the most expensive move to buy it off of three up or down.
Yeah, for me, it's one twenty nine on.
It wants it to go down to two and a half.
Let me check it right now, live looking at this hold on one. Let me get there. It's the last game, so I gotta scroll, all right. So the Saints ling two and a half would be minus one twenty nine.
So yeah, so same different, So I would spend that one thirty.
You want do that? All right? So let's make those are official players.
Oh?
Got about that all right? Because you can do that, get my minus one twenty all right, bucks getting three and a half minus one twenty nine, and you're gonna go with the Saints lang two and a half getting one. Yeah, that's cheaper than I would have expected, So I will take that. Actually, I remembered it now that I looked at it earlier, and I was like, oh, yeah, that's right. Okay, great, So we'll do that. So what's your favor You have
to met a total. I know you're staying away from totals, Matt, but if you absolutely have to do you want them again?
Yeah? Give me what? What is the Rams Packers total? Forty five?
Forty five and a half.
It's so sharp, My gosh, that that's.
A really sharp line.
I agree, gosh. I will take them in Ravens Bills is what forty nine and a half and Brown's Chiefs is.
What fifty seven?
All right, I'll take Brown's Chiefs under.
Okay, Brown's Chiefs under.
I'm not betting it, but I'll take the other. No, I'm not betting there, and it's the highest point total, and i'll hope for like a thirty to fourteen win for the Chiefs.
Well, since I'm not doing it anyway, and you can tell our lack of confidence in these over underpicks because we're not betting it, I'm going to go with the one that I actually think is probably my favorite one to do, and that would be the Rams Packers under forty five and a half. That's a great line, it's right there. But if there's one game that I see kind of being low scoring, especially giving all the Rams injuries, it's going to be that one. So that's it. So
do you have a teaser in mind, Matt? Yeah, you have ahead.
Take the Rams up twelve and a half, take the Ravens up eight and a half.
I like it, all right, and I will go same game teaser. I will go the Bucks. I'll put it at nine because it's at nine, which is fine because it's at three right now, so we don't have to do that. But the Bucks up to plus nine and the total down to forty five and a half. So those are our official plays. Is it tough? I mean, this is tough, man, They've got there's everything so sharp at this point, it really is so. But it's gonna be a fun weekend. I really look forward to it,
especially Sunday. Sunday night. You and I are going to be probably texting back and forth, hopefully at various times, thinking I've got this, You've got this, whatever it is. But that's good, all right. So that's it for this week's show. We'll be back of course next week, just you know, just doing the championship weekend. Don't forget to check out Matt's live streams again to this weekend, right, Matt one on.
Saturday, Saturday and Sunday for both games, both sorts of games.
Love at YouTube dot com slash betting Pros. Matt will do one Saturday at eleven am Eastern Sunday, Is that right, eleven am Mat Yeah, eleven am Eastern Sunday at eleven am Eastern and go to fanspros dot com slash shop check out the new daily juice swag that we've got going on there, and again where Clinton's listening right now as he's doing this, He's definitely gonna go make some sweatshirts and some hats and all the good stuff. Until then,
enjoy your weekend of betting, everybody. We'll talk to you next week
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