Hey, everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Bros NFL Podcast. I'm your host Dan Harris with me is Matt Pearl. Find us on Twitter at Dan Harris ad and that Sports Talk. Matt, Matt, I mean, I know how you're doing because I've been sitting here listening to you sweat a bet. But how are you doing for the listener's sake?
I'm good. I'm really good. I got my vaccine shot, so I'm good.
There one or number two?
Number one, okay, very good weeks, three weeks of good, number two. Yeah, I mean, I'm excited to get to get to these games. Only three games left in the entire NFL season, so that's kind of a bummer.
I believe they made it, Matt, Like, do you ever sit there and think that it's absolutely unreal that they made it through the season, not only because coming into it, I was very nervous that they were going to be able to just get it rolling formally, and then you had early on right, you had the postponements with some of the games and the extra bye weeks, and then things just looked like it was and they just kept going and they made it work. It's incredible. That they pulled this off.
I think, yeah, it's really impressive. And look, we're not done with football because we're starting to see the schedules come out for the FCS, so we're still gonna have that. The books in Vegas are gonna have to book those games. I mean, people are gonna require it. So we'll still have football in the spring. There's no XFL or AF this time around, but they'll be you know, Missouri Valley and they'll be you know, North Dakota State games and
other things to watch and bet on. So we'll have some spring football, but nothing like you know, high level football or the NFL. But yeah, it's incredible and they all should be commended for the sacrifices that they voluntarily made to go through it all, all the protocols and the testing. And look, I've taken I don't know, eight or nine tests, seven or eight tests in my life
for COVID. I couldn't imagine being tested seven times a week. Yeah, that's that's a lot, and that's really annoying, and I mean that's got to be frustrating. It's gotta be frustrating about not being able to go out and do what you want to do on the road. So, yeah, it is remarkable that we've we've made it all the way to where we have fans in the stands for these two games coming up Sunday.
And it's really funny because you used to think about when you have whatever, six thousand, seven thousand fans, that it would be just like, oh god, that stadium is dead. And especially in Buffalo, you were listening to it, you're like, oh my goodness.
You know, I've been making that case on my show for like the last week and a half saying normally when we're watching games where a stadium of sixty thousand has seven thousand, it's apathy. Yeah, these are the diehards of the diehards. These are the uber fan that are going to these games who have been you know, ticket holder for thirty years, who have been dreaming about a
Buffalo Bills team or a Chiefs you know, dynasty or whatever. Like, there's just so many people, and there'll be Bills fans there. They had to offer tickets to the Bills their fans, So there'll be some Bills fans in Arrowhead, Arrowhead for this game in Kansas City. So you know, I think it's a really big, big, actually a pretty big factor here that there's actually gonna be a home home field environment for the first time.
Well, it's two really good games, so we're gonna get into it, so a couple of things. We will have one more of these before the Super Bowl. Will do our usual Super Bowl show, but we are going to be doing additional things during the Super Bowl. Matt and I are going to be doing a live stream on
our YouTube channel YouTube dot com. Slash Betting Pros will provide more details, but we're gonna do a lot of giveaways and stuff like that, so you're gonna want to tune in and be about an hour long with the two of us. We'll give you all the details and stuff like that before the show, but we'll have that again, a ton of giveaways, talking about player props, talking about everything we can with the game. There'll also be a ton of stuff in our discord channel where you can
go to Betting Pros dot com slash chat. You should join. It's always poppin'. It's a good time, especially on Super Bowl Sunday. Yeah, it's going to be it's gonna be nuts really in there. It's gonna be a lot of fun. I'm gonna be hanging out.
We're giving away T shirts.
Oh yeah, we're gonna be giving away if you don't. Again, that's Daily Juice, I assume, and maybe I take for granted that everybody listens to this, listens to your Daily Juice podcast, because it is the best podcast, of course, but we have and I look, just because I invented it, I get to say, but we we have tons of swag right now, Matt h Are you you're wearing one right now?
Are I'm sporting a Daily Juice very comfortable, very nice, and affordable T shirt that's available on fantasypros dot com slash shop. Nice.
Yes, that's correct, right now, right now. We also have hoodies that we're gonna get hats.
Yeah, hoody's already flying off the shelves. But I got like seven guys telling me that they bought hoodies already.
I know that's why. And really it's the you know, reaction in our discord channel where everybody's like, I want I want to and we're like, okay, great, well we'll we'll get it up right away. So we did, so it's great and everything like that. Separately, I will note, Matt, you mentioned this on you know, Dailing Juice, but bet MGM is launching in Michigan tomorrow or today probably by the time you listen to this since Matt Friday yep,
a little bit late on Friday. I can get a deposit match on a deposit up to five hundred dollars when you use the code Juice one hundred. That is the code that we use for Matt's Daily Juice. We're using it here as well. Juice one hundred in Michigan. One hundred percent match on your first deposit up to five hundred dollars. All right, so let's know.
How angry that makes me. By the way, why do you any idea how mad that makes me? Why? Because we have nothing like that Vegas. Yeah, zip zero. You're lucky. If you get fifty bucks in Vegas when you sign up, it's like, great, give me your money. There's no thank you. Hey, deposit five hundred bucks, I'm gonna match you five hundred dollars. It's five hundred dollars in free bets. I mean that is, it's essentially a five hundred dollars free roll you get.
It's incredible, I mean, it's absolutely incredible.
It's awesome and I had one before the Juice. But when DraftKings came to New Hampshire, we also had a code, you know for the show. I used it the headed DraftKings and yeah, it's a free five hundred dollars bat. You can get aggressive, you can have fun. And I still remember, sort of like breaking it down. I have a good story. I'll tell you another time about how I used it, but yeah, it's it's.
Just make sure you use it on plus money, folks. Just make sure that's the only advice I give you. Bet what however you want, make sure you use it on plus money.
Yeah, and I'm sure we all Doss one.
Ten or Moss one forty, don't bet on Connor McGregor with it.
And I'm sure we all feel really bad for you for you know, you don't you miss out and all that, but you know you do live in Vegas, Matt, so you do get you know, over there. All right, So let's let's talk about last week very quickly. You know what we did last week, what we've been doing, and we can do whatever we want on this one. But we were doing one against the spread, pick one over under, pick and then one two team teaser that you know we both kind of like to do. I had the
Bucks getting three and a half. Matt and I were on the different sides of that game, as we talked about, but we both bought the half a point to get off three. So I had the Bucks getting three and a half and a single game teaser with the Bucks plus nine and the over forty five and a half. But I also had the under forty five and a half on the Rams and Packers game, which I really liked, but you know, didn't hit. Of course, Matt, you had the Browns and Chiefs under fifty seven, so that was right.
You missed on the Saints of course, lank two and a half. And your teaser was the Rams getting twelve and a half and the Ravens getting eight and a half. So neither of those legs.
Yah.
Actually I know the Ravens really.
I mean, my other teacher was better. The other teacher, my other teaser hit on teasers, but that teaser was disgusting.
Yeah, you always want to hear more of math picks. Listen to Daily Jude. All right, let's get into it here, though. Let's start with the Bucks at the Packers and I will use the latest odds that we have over at bettingpros dot com. Again Betting Pros, that'll give you the odds of the various sports books that they have available. The Packers are laying three, and there are a couple of three and a halfs out there, including my book.
DraftKings is three and a half right now, but the consensus line is three because that's the majority of it. The over under is fifty one and a half. And I'll give you the money line odds as well, in case you think there's any value there. The Bucks are plus one point fifty and the Packers right now are minus one seventy five. All right, so let's talk about this game. Matt general feeling. What do you think?
So I've been making this joke. I finished the regular season up. I think it was like nine units. I've given more than half of it back in the play and it's been just awful. So I am really gun shy when it comes to these two football games. And if I had gun to my head, I'll take three. I'll take the Packers. They're at home. I think this offense is very good. I don't think that Tampa defense is very good. I think the turnovers came from Drew
Brees and Jared Cook just not paying attention. So that was a monster And it was twenty to twenty when that fumble happened with Jared Cook and then the two interceptions happened, it was really rough. They scored twenty one points off the three turnovers, really four in totality for the New Orleans Saints in that football game. That was the difference in that game. It was still only a ten point margin, so without the turnovers, Saints probably win that game. So I look at the Packers at home.
I know it's not going to be frigid, but it's still a Tampa Bay team in Green Bay, Wisconsin. There's still a significant issue there with the weather and just being cold and not so much Tom Brady. Everyone's saying, oh, Brady's fine in the cold. I understand that point, but the problem with it is is Brady played at home in New England where they played the entire season. They were used to it, they live there. You can't practicing
the cold in Tampa. So you're gonna go up there, have to get situated in twenty four hours to go play football, and I don't think it's Brady. I think it's the receivers having a tough time hanging on to a hard football and then fumbling the football a slick, hard, cold football. So to me, I think these turnovers are gonna flip flop. I think Tampa turns the football over and I think the Packers win the game in cover.
Okay, so let's talk about something that I'm sure a lot of our listeners are thinking about right now, Matt. These teams met back in Week six, I believe, and the Bucks trounced them thirty eight ten. That was Rogers' worst game in the season. You're throwing that entirely out at this point when you're thinking.
Of and neveryone throw out the two wins for the Saints over the Bucks last week.
No, I'm not telling you it's wrong.
I'm saying, isn't that what everyone said? So, No, you can't beat a team two three times? It's really hard.
Well, I mean, but that's a different situation, right, that's a third time. That's the third time two teams that you know generally. I know Brady wasn't there, but they know each other pretty well. Of course, they played twice every year. This was like a dominant performance here by the by, you know, but yeah, a dominant performance by the Saints of course at some point, but a dominant but the only game that Rogers has really looked terrible. But I'm just saying, are you you're throwing it out?
Doesn't matter at all.
It doesn't matter at all. It's nothing to me. It was another year, it was a lifetime ago.
I'm in agreement with you. I want to make that clear so extent anybody took that as me being like, Matt, what are you doing, I'm in agreement with you that I do not care about the game.
Now.
I went back and I watched that game, okay, like recently, because I wanted to see what it was going to look like. That game was bizarre, so you know, I mean not bizarre, I guess, but it was just much more of like surprising how little the Packers adapted to it. You know, the offensively right, because Rogers is playing at such a high level. The offense is playing at such a high level, and you know, Rogers likes to take the clock down right to the end of you know,
two seconds left and then snap the ball. And it was just sort of like Rogers I felt like the Bucks kept disguising what they were doing, and Rogers never took any steps to try to figure it out, Like he was just like, I'm just gonna wait the whole time like we usually do. No trying to get them to jump, no trying to see what they were in. He's just gonna it's not gonna be the same right now. Rogers is playing too well. And again I agree with you.
I think the weather is a factor here not I think you put it summed it up very very well. It's not Brady. Okay, we're not criticizing and saying Brady can't play in the cult. Of course, he's played in New England his entire career. But I do think that it's different for the rest of the team, like they're just not really going to be used to that. But I lean towards the Packers. I don't love it, Matt. For me, again, I'm at draftings, so it's at three and a half. I don't love it at three and
a half. I just don't the hook really really.
Oh yeah, any of the three, I mean the three is, I wouldn't play it because there's so many Every book in Vegas is at three. I mean nobody at three and a half in Vegas. So just to give you an idea that essentially what this line is. Okay, it's kind of basic, but this is what happens Tampa. If you're at three and a half, you're getting Buck money. If you're at two and a half, you're getting Packer money.
Yep.
That's basically wherever you're setting the number. So DraftKings needs for whatever reason, DraftKings needs Tampa Bay money. That's why that's why they're at three and a half, because they must have gotten a couple of monster bets on the Packers, so they're trying to get other money. They're trying to get money on the Bucks at plus three and a half to kind of, you know, balance that out, or to try to limit the liability they've got on the game.
Yeah, realistically, you expect this to be a close game. You expect a like a three roughly a three point game or something close to it.
See, this is my question because of the teaser. I want to play that everybody in the in their lives are going to play. Every better is going to have this ticket plus nine plus nine everyone. Yeah, I'm nervous about a Packer or blowout.
Yep.
I really, I'm really nervous about the Packers killing the teaser because the Packers go ahead and win, and a part of me wants to tease through zero, and part of me wants to take Packers massa zero because there is no real difference. There's no real difference between plus three and plus three, so I think the Packers could win big. It's the second leg that I needed on. I need the points, not on this leg. I need
the points on the Bills and Chief's leg. So that's one reason why I could see myself violating that rule and teasing through zero. But I hate, hate, hate, and don't like doing that. So, as I said, I'm I'm all over the place here. The teaser I'm gonna play is actually on the total in this game to me.
Too, very so I have that my two team teaser is going to take I mean spoiler alert, but my two team teaser is going to be taking the bills up to nine.
Yep.
And I'm gonna be teasing the total down on this one and taking the over you're.
Doing, yeah, exact, same bet, yep, exactly, because that's my two teams yep.
Yes, that's mine as well. I've already bet it, and I think that that, oh why did.
You why didn't you wait until what? Until the until you get four or five? Until you're gonna get You're gonna get the second that Patrick Mahomes is cleared to play that number is not saying it three and a half.
Okay, so three, Yeah, I've got a three, all right, so that might be first of all number one. I'll bet it again if so, and again if it goes. If it goes to three and a half, doesn't matter to me obviously, because you have to get to ten. Right with a teaser, it doesn't matter.
But I oh no, it matters. It really four matters on a six point teaser. Getting the ten matters big time.
I'm saying the difference between three and three and a half for me, right, because on a teaser, if you if you tie the second leg, you lose. Right.
No, It's just every every book is different. Some book is a push, some book the whole. Some book have the whole bets of push. Some books will give you the odds on the first leg. But most books is a straight push. If one leg, if only one leg of the two leg teaser pushes, the whole BET's a push.
Okay, So the book then I used, I actually haven't had it come up yet with racking book that I.
Think I get to push you get to ten the whole book. If it falls on ten, the whole bet will be a push.
Fair enough, fair enough on the book. And that's actually my bad because I think I've just been assuming, basically because the book that I used to play at when I used to live in a place where I could was with if you pushed a leg, you lost. So that's kind of what I've been so but regardless, so we'll get to that game. You know, we'll push that game away, Matt when we get there. About what we think the spread is going to do, because I I don't.
You may be absolutely right and putt put it out there. You live in Vegas, you are well connected. I'm sure you have a better idea of what's going to happen here. I have always been assuming that this is price the Bills Chiefs game, as if Mahomes is going to.
Play, But the public hasn't gotten involved yet.
You think that when Patrick Mahomes, all right, we'll get there. Let's let's let's keep up with this game right now. I think I agree with you in that I think there is an absolute risk here that the Packers destroyed the Bucks. I really do, because I get you. You called it, Matt like last week's game was not overly
impressive by the Bucks. It really wasn't. They could have easily lost that game had those certain things happened at the end of the game and Drew Rees basically he really did look like Peyton Manning in the last year of his career at this point, and they still were in that game, and of course they didn't have you know, MVP Deontae Harris, who looked like he was going to be a game changer for the first couple.
Of until he got.
Until he got hurt, until the first quarter and changed the game.
Yeah, I was, you know, it was brutal. I mean, if he was he was electric, and then everything switched when he got hurt. I was like, oh no.
So, but they did not look overly impressive or against Washington. Now they are strong defensively, and they may have videvea back here, which only strengthens their run defense.
So yeah, but I talked to somebody in Tampa about that on my show and someone who's actually part of the Bucks broadcast, and they don't think that a three hundred pound man who hasn't played football for a long time, yep, they don't think he's in game shape. So they think even if he is in the game, he's on like a ten to fifteen snapcount, Like, okay, maybe he makes some plays, but they weren't. I thought the same thing.
I was like, oh, man, maybe you know, if Videvea coming back could be a monster in the middle, he could chew up a bunch of a bunch of black blockers. And they were like, yeah, no, I wouldn't expect him to be a big part of the game plan by any means. He may play, he may be out there, but like, don't expect him to be a you know, a twenty five thirty snap type defensive player right.
Well, you know, regardless of course, even when they lost him, the Bucks are still one of the best teams at stopping the run, so you know, I think they'll be able to do that. But again, against the past, it's not like Carlton Davis is gonna take away DeVonta Adams, you know, And either way, Rogers are just playing at such a high level that he will be able to sort of find, you know, the holes in the defense.
And again, I'm presuming at this point that I'm not the only one who has gone back and watched that game film of that first game and been like, you know, maybe we need to switch this up a little bit as to what we were doing because they were getting too much pressure on Rogers. They were throwing deep too much. So I think they're gonna change that. So I think they're gonna be They're gonna be able to put up points.
And the Packers defense has played better. They're getting more pressure lately, and you know, that's sort of the key to Brady to get pleasure without blitzing, because when you realise, he's just gonna tear you up if you can get more pressure without blitzing, and they've been doing that a little bit more lately. We don't know whether or not Antonio Brown's gonna play. I guess he's trending up, but really, you attack the Packers on the ground, so you'll see
probably a lot of Leonard Fournette. But I do think there's gonna be a fair amount of scoring in this game, and it is something where it lends itself. I think to in game betting. If if you're not if you're gunchy about the over at fifty, what did I say fifty one and a half? If you're gun shy about that, wait for the game and if if one side gets up by like ten points or more, then they're just both gonna then there's just gonna be a lot of a ton of passing and the over is gonna go.
So that's what I would do with that. I don't love Do you like the fifty one and a half either way? Matt? Without teasing it? We said, we teach it.
Think it's right. I think I think the game falls somewhere in there. I mean, I could see it falling at fifty. You know, that's where my thirty to twenty comes in. I'm like, yeah, there's the teaser killer right right. If the Packers win by ten, that's it. And can they win by ten? Yeah, and then they don't get to the total, you know, they don't go to the over thirty to twenty. It's a fifty point total, and then so you lose on the under or the over
bet is a loss and the teasers a loss. So that's my that's my like uh oh, in my brain when I start thinking about how I would bet this, that's the scenario that scares me the most.
Yeah, and again with this, Matt, like, when I look at the two teams, you know they're both you know, at this point, you know they're both They match up pretty well. They're both solid defensively, they both have excellent quarterbacks. I can both move the ball through the air, decent run game, and everything like that. They match up pretty well against each other to the point where when you
look at it, yeah, three point spread feels right. But like you I just I kind of have this feeling that the Packers may just come out and smash them, you know, Like I have this like just nagging feeling in the back of my mind that in the cold in Green Bay, they're just gonna come out and be totally ready to avenge that loss.
So well, I think there's also a point that I've been making on my radio show a little bit that I haven't heard enough about across the country. Is it so Rogers has one ring. The list of quarterbacks who have one ring, it's pretty long. The list of quarterbacks who have two rings, it's not that long list of quarterbacks are three rings or more is really short. So I mean Rogers can put himself in the big ben in the you know, in the Peyton Manning. I mean
he can put himself into a category. I mean John always got three, but he can put himself into a category that you're like, huh, this is a different you know, we're no longer discussing far versus Rogers. And I think that extra ring. The winner of this game, in my mind, is gonna win the championship. So yeah, I really do.
I think the winner of this wins at all. And I think I've got a bet on the Packers, so like a party me is like I thought the Packers were the best team in football three weeks ago when I made the bet, and I just got to ride it here. So I do have, like my other play, I don't normally do two team parlays, but I think at FanDuel you could have gotten this this morning if you took moneyline Packers money line Chiefs. You get plus one fifty one odds on it. Really yeah, so it's
not bad. It's not a bad two leg teaser to two leg parlay, just straight money line number one Seeds win. Number one Seeds make their way to Tampa. I mean, I think it's a decent way of playing it. I mean, I think it's a it's a decent way of not having to worry about the points and worry about something screwy happening with missed extra points or strange fumbles at the end or whatever. Just Chiefs win, Packers win, and you're at plus one fifty one.
Yeah, I've got a draft Kings right now because I've just pulled it up. I always like to have it up, Matt, just so I can check exactly where we are. It's at one forty six, so it's it's right around there. I do again, I think basically where I've come down on this, and it is something where I think the line is fair, is absolutely right. I could see it
being a close game. But I'm starting, as I've just looked into this more and more, I kind of just I have this feeling like the pack Like I'm more confident that the Packers are gonna win, way more confident that the Packers are gonna win than I am that the Chiefs win, even with Mahomes playing in that game. So let's get to that game. Then, I think basically where we come at as is at three, we like the Packers, right, you're willing you're are you gonna bet that with the Packers laying three?
Don't know yet? Okay, no, no, no, I told you i'd I've been. I may be more exotic than being then just taking straight sides and totals, we could give me how bad I've been.
Oh, and look, we are at a point right now where the lines are so sharp, you know, because they have so much data and stuff like that. So do I love of three or three and a half on either of these games?
No?
I don't at all. So you know, I don't think I would actually bout out. I'll make a play on one of the sides at this point, right, but at three and a half, like, I think there's value on the bucks, but I won't bet it because I just have the feeling like the Packers are going to kind of run with this one. So and I love the total either. I think this total is right on, like you at fifty one and a half money line parlay
is very interesting. But let's get to the second game now, Matt, because you know you let let's start with the first thing kind of that we we already teed up a little bit. You think that once Mahomes is declared in and I think at this point there's there's it's almost a certainty at this point that he's going to play just right. Okay, So you think when that comes in, the public is going to come in hard on the chiefs and the line is going to move? Yes, how high do you think it gets?
Four? Four and a half?
Really? Okay? So that's interesting to me because and out of curiosity, is this just the Matt Parral sort of way of thinking, or have you talked to bookmakers who are both affecting that, I mean.
But both I mean. The expectation is if you have bet the bills, you already bet them, because you could have gotten four here in Vegas at an open The open number in Vegas was four. So if you wanted if you I guess, not the open but it was bet. It was. It was seesawed in the first six hours of it being open to what finally stopped where it opened up. One book had Chiefs miss two and a half, another book had bills miss one and a half, and
then it all kind of homogenized together. Once the bets started to fly in, but that was because one book was banking on Mahomes. Another book was saying Mahomes is going to be out. So after it all kind of the dust settled, it was at four and you could find four all over town. So if you wanted to bills at four, you've already bet them. That's why the line came down to three. So we've seen nothing but
basically bills money come in. So the packer, sorry, the chief money hasn't showed up yet, and so we're gonna get chief money. When Mahomes is cleared to play and there's no questions, he's out, he's out of the protocol and there's no more question. You will see one hundred thousand, two hundred thousand, three hundred thousand. I mean, all all that stuff will hit will hit it. It will come down hard. So I mean that I think is if you like the bills.
Wait now, Matt, don't you think that the sharp money will come in on the bills. If it keeps going to four, it's gonna be fifty to fifty. Okay?
The start this is this is a really really hard game.
Okay.
I mean I think I think the second game is harder than the first game.
Oh yeah, I don't. I this game is very tough, very tough. Now you it's funny because I don't. I don't feel that confident. And even if Mahomes plays, because at the very least, and we're assuming Mahomes place, at the very least, Matt he's gonna be limited by that tell. I mean, that's turf toe. We assume right that he
has there with the toe injury that he suffered. I mean, he if he's limping around that Mahomes limping around is still probably the best quarterback in the NFL, but it does take you know, his mobility being limited, that does take away from him. So you think, though that they're gonna you so confident that they're going to win this game.
Yeah, I mean, I mean, I am. Here's here's how Here's how I feel about this game. I love the under It's my favorite play of the game. Okay, at fifty three and a half, Okay, I like teasing the bills up because I don't think the Chiefs beat anybody by big numbers anymore.
They don't cover ever at no ever.
So yes, and so I like getting four and a half to five and teasing it up to ten or eleven with the Bills. That's my second favorite play. And then if I had to go ahead and bet it, I'd take money line Chiefs. Okay, all right, that's that's kind of I'm trying to ensure myself a little bit that if I'm really wrong, if the Bills come out and win by like thirty, Okay, I'm alright, because that blows up the money line parlay.
Right.
I think Patrick mahomes mobility is a big problem. If he can't run around and he can't move, that's a big issue. His arm still the arm, Okay, I'm not I'm not saying you can't throw the football. He can, but if he can't plant properly, or if he hurts it early in the game, if he gets, you know, sacked, and he hurts the foot early in the game, forget
the head. I mean, the foot's a bigger worry to me, to be honest with you, that than any concussion is show you'll be having no. So, I just the Bills defense has been playing really well and the Chiefs aren't scoring touchdowns right now, they're kicking a ton of field goals. Yes, So That's why the under is my favorite play of the game. Is you know, if I had to bet a side on it, or I had to be you know, your side or total, I'm taking the total and going under three and a half.
The only part of this game I'm touching is and again if it moves up, I'll bet. I'll just bet it again for sure. But I'm comfortable at plus nine because I don't think there's I will be floored if the Chiefs win this game by nine points or more like, I'll be absolutely.
I know a lot of sharp people that like the Bills just plus three and a half.
I'm telling you, I feel like if I have to place a bet, I would do it. But Matt, you remember that game early in the season when we took Chiefs against the Ravens, when Mahlomes was getting money and we were just like, right, why would you ever bet against Patrick? Well, like, you know, it was just sort of watching. It's almost comical what he can do. If he is remotely close to one hundred percent and even limited, they could have put up a ton of points against Cleveland.
I mean, what he can do, you know, limping around is better than any mortal man. But the Bills, and this is I'm very interested to hear your take on it, because you you have faded the Bills for the most part all season long. But I'm so impressed by the Bills. And you know, against the Ravens, I realized that, you know, Lamar doesn't throw that pick six, and that game could
have turned out very, very differently. Baltimore played a great game defensively, but it was really really windy, like incredibly windy. I don't really blame them the Bills, you know, I'm just trying to like break it down. The Bills get an extra day of rest here, and again you have the Holmes, who's sort of you now, is a little banged up. You know, the Bills are great in the
red zone. Part of it is because Josh Allen Can you know, has the rushing threat obviously, but you know, he's just playing in an exceptionally high, well high level. Casey's not great as a red zone defense, Like, they're not that good at keeping teams out of the end zone once they get there. So the Bills are going to be able to put up points in this game. And that's especially true given the fact that everybody on the Chiefs is injured. Like, just in thinking about how
this game's gonn unfold, Breeland is injured. I think he's gonna play. He's practicing, but you know, maybe Cech plays. I guess Watkins plays, and we guess Mahomes plays. But again, the Chiefs defense just hasn't been quite that as good in the second half against the pass, like, it's just not quite as good. I mean, you looked at Mayfield. He was able to move the ball pretty well. The
Bills linebackers are playing really well. You know, I don't know, man, I'm getting like a weird I'm not going to bet against Patrick mall I'm just not, like, because it's a horrible thing to do. So even though the Bills at plus three I think is the right side at this one, I'm not going to actually place a bet on it. But I don't know, man, especially with Mahomes, he's not going to be one hundred percent right, Like that's the one thing we know, right, He's just not gonna be able to move around.
Well, Okay, so I got a couple of things on ye Josh Allen. All right, So the Buffalo Bills do not run the ball. Yes, They've simply just stopped. So Brian Dabble not being a head coach saying he's gonna stay for one more year, I think we underestimate that a little bit because now he's focused on just this team,
just this quarterback. And I really wonder if Look, Buffalo is a cold weather team going to Kansas City, so they're not going to be affected by any cold weather, which I think is a major benefit to them because a lot of teams that go to Kansas City are frozen when they get there. Yeah, and especially in I mean I've been to a playoff game at Arrowhead in January and I've sat nearly near the top of the bleachers and I nearly froze to death. I mean, it's
just super super cold and really really raw. That's the thing about it. It's just it's a biting cold in Kansas City. So I don't think that the chief the Chiefs will have a big advantage over the Bills there, nor of a Josh Allen who's a quarterback play at Wyoming. So that's okay. The wins a major factor. I got to I want to find out it looks like eleven mile pro or win Gus. That's not that big of a deal, but I just I want to make sure that stays there not get buffaloed again like last time
with the Ravens game. And so that's important. And then I look at the red zone offense for the Bills and the red zone offense with the Chiefs, and my hope is that Kansas City will hold the Bills to a bunch of field goals because it's hard to pass in the red zone. If you can't run the ball in the red zone, it can be tough to score.
I know they're so good Matt at in the red zone for offensively, even though they don't run the ball, they're still really good at that.
But it is a championship game, is it's a different moment. It's the first time he's ever been here. He wins, and he goes to the Super Bowl. I mean, there's just a lot of pressure that comes to this. So I could see him gripping a little bit. I can see him missopen receivers. I mean, this is where I'm not the biggest Josh Allen fan, like everybody knows, but I think between the twenties, I think this guy right now is really really good. So the red zone. I'm
hoping for field goals from both sides. That's why I like the under in this game. But yep, I'm very interested to see what Kansas City's pressure package is and if they're just gonna blitz the holy heck out of Josh Allen and say, okay, we trust our guys one on one. Because if so, I think Diggs could have a monster game catching football. Yeah, and he could be the guy he could be. He could be the key
to the whole thing. He may have like eight catches for one hundred and twenty yards and two touchdowns.
And the thing is they're usually good against limiting you know, they're usually good at limiting wide receivers. They're kind of this funnel defense that funnels everything to the middle of the field. And it is worth noting now that Cole Beasley, who was banged up, is now off although I guess he was off the injury report, but then today he
got back in a limited practice. So if he if he were one hundred percent, I think he could actually have a big game because I think the middle of the field is where you might be able to kind of exploit them. If he is limited again, it's going to affect him same question. By the way, I realized, Look, they they played each other before, and I think this was like the Tuesday night game maybe or maybe it was Monday Night football. I can't remember exactly when they played.
But you know, are you again that was twenty six seventeen. The Bills ran the ball a ton you know in that game or you I assume, like the Green Bay game. You're throwing out that game like you don't care about it whatsoever.
I don't care about it. No, I don't care about it. I mean it's it's it's been so long ago. I mean, this is a different chief team right now. I don't know what's going Chiefs having coverage is remember the first.
I know of season?
Now what's going on?
I don't know. That's why I'm saying when that's why, like we're like, oh, you want to wait for it to get the plus four whatever, I'll take it plus nine. I mean, the teams with my more than you know eight, I will be absolutely shocked. But sorry, go ahead.
I don't mean no, I just I just think that that's the key to me, Like that's the that's gonna be the biggest difference is is you know, I want to see it all comes down to Josh Allen. Josh Allen plays well, they're gonna win this game. I really think it's possible if he doesn't play up up to snuff Patrick Mahomes, if they give Patrick Mahomes any daylight, I mean, if they give them the football back up four with forty five seconds to go, they're gonna lose.
Like they cannot. They cannot give the Chiefs any daylight to win the game, and if they do, they're gonna lose. But I think they might be able to keep the door closed.
Okay, So I think, Okay, So here's the thing. If the spread does go past three, okay, like you're expecting that it will if Mahomes gets in, I really thought it would stick at three. But if it does go up, I'd probably bite the bullet and take the Bills because I think they have a chance to win outright, and because I think that the Chiefs just they don't blow anybody out anymore, Like that's just not what they do. They don't cover anymore. So I would rather take that
at three. I'm just staying away from it, man, because I think the value is on the Bills even at three, but I don't want to. I can't bring myself to do it. To see what Patrick Mahomes is able to do in that game For the total, You like the under, I really don't like it. I think the only way I'm touching the total is if it's in game and the Bills get out to a lead. If the Bills get out like they score fourteen points or something like that, then it's I think it's gonna turn into a shootout.
Then I think it's gonna be like what because Mahomes is able to put up if he if he needs to, they'll score a touchdown in right fifty seconds, right right, any anytime. And if they're down by a little bit, then I think the total is gonna explode and we'll see where it goes. But yeah, other than that, I don't know. Man, this game's both these games. I mean, the lines are sharp, but it scares me. Manugh, it's really just yeah, all right, Well let's get to our
official picks, Matt. Let's get because we do it. So you gotta take a you gotta take a spread, you gotta take a side. I know you may not actually bet it, but you have to take one side right now, what is it?
Packer's minus three?
Okay, I'm gonna do the same.
Because because the Bills aren't. Once the Bills go to four to four and a half, out prefer the Bills.
Yep.
But right now Bills at three, no, even three and a half.
No, we are we are in the exact same situation then. Ohthough, hold on, let me let me check what I said here, just to make sure it is three. Okay, yeah, I'm with you right now. I'm gonna my favorite one would be the Packers minus three. But if the Bills do go past the field goal, I will take the Bills. That will be my favorite play. And your total that you like the most is the Chiefs Bills under.
Right, fifty three and a half.
Yep, all right, Chiefs Bills under fifty three and a half. I'm gonna go just to differentiate it. And again, look, I'll be as honest possible because somebody asked this on Twitter, like, do you bet everything that you gout, you know, sort of talk about and on this. You know, most of the time I do on this, I'm not like I'm not you know, all that time. I'm not gonna make it.
I mean, I change. I bet every day, so sorry information will. I mean, that was the thing about during the football season that we would tape on a Thursday and then on Sunday it'd be COVID problems and quarterbacks being out and guys not there and it was coaches leaving. It was like what the It was just constant chaos.
So like our plays on Thursday were kind of like all right, and we all joked around like talking, you know, on Sunday morning, we'll tell you what our real plays are because we don't know on Thursday exactly what's gonna happen. So it made it far more difficult to bet, you know, on on taping to have our plays be actually counting, right.
And I agree, But I'm going to go the Bucks Packers over fifty one and a half. I actually, you know, again, both teams are a relatively strong defensively. I just think that Aaron Rodgers is playing at a level right now where he's not really going to be able to be contained. And I think that the Bucks. But I think the way the game plays out, if I have to choose one way, is that the Packers get ahead, they put up some points, you know, and Eventually, Tom you know,
leads them back, but they do fall short. And because of that, I think there are going to be points in this game. So I'll go over fifty one and a half. But you you said it correctly. That's the line. I mean that that's the right line for sure. So I don't love it, but if I have to go one way, that's what I'm doing. And it sounds like we have the same two team teaser, Matt. You're teasing that total down in the Packers.
That'll be the official two team teaser for me.
Okay, and is it Are you waiting to do it for the best because we can say that there's no way that the spread here unless Patrick Mahomes is ruled out, which we basically are discounting at this point.
There's no way if he's rolled out the Lions Buffalo miles three, right, And so you're so it's a monster difference.
No, no, no, no. But what I'm saying is you are not concerned about that enough to bet it right now at moving it from three to nine. You're gonna wait to make that bet. I want ten, right, So you're what I'm saying is that you think the risk of Mahomes being out is so minimal that you're gonna wait on this bet to make this two deser, right, Okay, yeah, yeah, yeah yeah.
So again I got a better chance of growing two feet tomorrow night than Mahome's not playing. Okay, it's not happening.
Least, I don't know you that well, maybe that's a possibility. I really it would be weird. But yeah, I agree that he's playing again. I will gladly bet it again. And the total actually for me when I had it was fifty one on the Bucks Packers game. It's now fifty one and a half for me pulling it down, so it's moving a little bit. I'm fine to take it right now at plus three because again I think that that's a safe number. I think making that plus nine for the Bills is totally safe if Matt's right.
And again I have been assuming this entire time that they put it at plus three, and that they were expecting basically like the only way it was going to move, most likely was in Buffalo's favor, you know, coming to this or whatever. I just I think that they're they're going to leave it at plus three like that. That's why I think they made that line assuming Mahomes would play and that they assume the money. But I will trust your judgment, of course, because you know a lot
more about that side of it than I will. And so I'm willing to go with it at plus three. If it goes to plus four, I'll bet it again and get it ten without question. But that's where we are. So yeah, I mean, it's sounds.
And then the bonus is if you want to do a two team money line parlay, you can get plus money on Becker's Chiefs.
That's right, that's right. Yeah, I DraftKings one forty six. He's had a fandle one fifty one. That's not a bad way to go. And again, on that leg of it, I feel I feel more confident that the Packers are going to beat the Bucks than I need. The Chiefs are gonna beat the.
Bills, And you can flip it around if you want to change it up, if you if you think that you think the Bills are gonna win the game. Outright, you can get even better money on that.
Oh yeah, that's right.
That's like plus two hundred bills a Bill's moneyline parlay with the Packers, you know, and I think that is a real good shot. That's what I'm gonna wind.
Up with plus two seventy seven.
Man, Dang, they made me nearly three to one.
Yeah, that's not a bad one actually to U to consider doing all right.
I just think that. I just think the Bills find a way to blow it. It's late.
I just find a way to give Homes given the Bills history.
Yes, yep, I'm just giving you. I think it's Mahomes magic at home. I just think there's something there where the Bills are gonna do something stupid. They're gonna punt on a fourth down they shouldn't punt on. They're gonna give that little crack to Patrick Mahomes, and then he'll blow that thing and he'll win the game. Like I think, I don't think recover.
But really what it comes down to is exactly that, which is why I can't make the bet, which is you have to give Patrick Mahomes zero options, zero chances to win that game or to whatever you want to do. You have to give him zero because if you give him a sliver, gimpy or not, he's going to make it happen. Which is why I just cam bring myself.
I mean, just win the game, right, I mean it can be like they can be down twenty six to twenty yeah, and you get the football back to them and then tend to go in one time out and Mahomes goes eighty yards and scores a game winning touchdown. You lose twenty seven to twenty six.
Yeah, Like these are really I.
Can easily see that happening. So you cover your bills teaser, and you cover your bills plus three and a half or plus four, yeah, but you get your Patrick Mahomes money line parlay.
Yeah to hit. Yeah. All right, Well, obviously Matt will give his official sort of Daily Juice plays on the Daily Juice podcast, and we will certainly have props. I've got a couple of ideas already, Matt. On props, I'm I'm starting to look at it because some of them are out. I know, they don't come out for you right until they have I'd.
Like that basically, like get them Saturday night.
Yeah you had to live in Vegas, Matt, poor guy. But yes, I'll get them a little early, so I'll try to get into you. And again, Matt will be doing a live stream this weekend on Sunday, eleven o'clock usual time at a wonderful YouTube dot com slash betting pros. Go ahead there, we'll have our props and then again we'll be doing something big for the Super Bowl. I will let you guys know what that is. And again
join our discord betting bros dot com slash chat. We were in there all the time and we'll be doing that during the Super Bowl. Until then, enjoy this weekend's games. It's going to be fun and we will talk to you not next week, but the week after talking about the Super Bowl.