NFL Championship Sunday Preview (Ep. 152)

It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros. Welcome in everybody to betting pros. And it's me Joey p Joe Pi Zapia, and it's all about the championship games. That's right. This weekend is the AFC and NFC championship games. And Scott Bogman and I are gonna take you through all of the bets. We're gonna take you through some of the prop bets as well. And I gotta tell you, Bogman, I know, most of the time we'd come in here and say we were fifty percent last week, and we

Yeah, you know, two and two was perfectly fine in a four game set, So you know, we'll we'll keep our money that that that's enough. So uh but yeah, man, it was a wacky, wacky divisional round. Of course, you know a lot of people calling it the best weekend of playoff football ever. Hard to disagree with that, you know, I think the hyperbole of the Chiefs first Bills being the best game ever a little bit much because it

So you know, so thankfully for Cowboy we'll take that.

Yeah, thankfully for Cowboys fans. But I'll say this too. I mean, I don't know if it was the best game ever, but I think it's the best fourth quarter ever that that might be.

For sure.

It's the most two minute warning ever in the history of football.

That is for sure.

Certainly insane. But obviously we've got to go back to the grindstone and put our nose in it, I guess. And we're going to talk about the Cincinnati Bengals taking all the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco forty nine ers taking on the Los Angeles Rams. A lot

I mean, I think the seven is appropriate for the way that both these teams are playing. My favorite bet here is the over. We'll get into that in a second. But I think this is about right, and I think the thing here is experience. It's four years in a row in the AFC Championship for the Kansas City Chiefs. It is the first AFC championship since nineteen eighty eight for the Cincinnati Bengals, So you know, I think it's

So I think seven is about fair.

Now, if you're looking at the consensus line, it's seven. But if you go to bet MGM, it's seven and a half. And obviously with bet MGM two bet MGM users can get ten dollars and base bet any ten dollars on any event and then win one hundred and

Not really, it does, matter, of course, you know.

But for me, I'm gonna be taking Kansas City just because of the way that Patrick Mahomes is playing right now. It looked he looks fairly unstoppable. Like I said, I don't know what broke towards the second quarter of that Steelers game and wild Card weekend, but it broke, and the dam is open and Patrick Mahomes is playing unbelievable right now. Even in that you know that first trive, we saw the Buffalo go down, go for on fourth and get it, go for the fourth and goal and

Now, if the hook does matter to you, those of you listening, and you are a new bet MGM user again, that's ten dollars you can wager and use the promo code Juice one fifty again, that's Juice one fifty and once again ten dollars on any event and you'll win one hundred and fifty dollars in free bets. That's a pretty good return on your investment. I would say, what about the over under here in this one? The consensus line over on betting pros right now is fifty four

They switch back and forth between because Daniel Sownson can't cover but he can tackle, and one Thornhill can cover but he can't tackle, So they've been going back and forth.

So when Matthew went out early in the game last week.

That's why we saw, you know, I mean, Mike Cues get completely cooked, but there was no help behind him because Matthew had been out. So that's going to help towards that. I just don't think it's gonna be enough. I think Kansas City can get most of this by themselves with the way they're playing, and if the Bengals are gonna keep pace, it's gonna go way over that, just like we saw Casey and Buffalo.

Yeah, so far, according to bankpros dot Com, seventy seven percent in our matchup right now, we're on the over. And right now, this might surprise you, fifty nine percent of the wagers coming in on the Cincinnati side on the plus seven. So that's pretty interesting there.

I think you see the Bengals win two road games and that's a big line, and they beat Kansas City before this year, so you know, I understand it.

I get it too. It just feels like they're gonna be outclassed a little bit. To me, if anybody can go in there and you know, write that check, it's Joe Burrow. It feels I mean, he's got that kind of swagger and got that kind of momentum. He's big game. Joe Burrow.

Baby, we're so close to a Cincinnati San Francisco Super Bowl rematch too. I mean, come on, somebody, dust boomerisiasin off and bring him over there. The number two on the money line is Cincinnati plus two seventy five if you're looking to just bet Cincinnati to win outright. But again, a little dicey scenario there. We gotta rather take that and take them plus the points.

I think I'd rather take them straight up.

I agree if I'm gonna if I'm gonna go on the Cincinnati side, I'd rather leave the points aside and just go bet them out right. Now, I'm with you one hundred percent, and we'll we bet them out right last week on this very show, and we were correct. We bet them outright. We thought the Chiefs outright. Look, it was a crazy, wacky weekend. There's no doubt about that. When three road teams win on the last play of the game on the field goal kick, I mean, it's

What do you see the stat they flashed up in the middle of that too. It was like the smallest win mark in a divisional weekend. Total for all four games was eighteen points. It was nine going into the Lake game, and it ended up at fifteen because they scored the touchdown in overtime. So closest division weekend ever, that's for sure.

Yeah, it was.

Certainly fun and less of course you're Aaron Rodgers, which case was less fun for you. But I'm sure there's someone else to blame besides him. Let's move on to the next game. Here, the San Francisco forty nine Ers are three and a half point underdogs traveling to Los Angeles. Now here you go, the Rams have lost six straight times to the forty nine ers. And you know, we talk oftentimes about well the history of things doesn't matter too much, but this is recent history, right and right now.

I don't know if they're in their head.

But I am taking the Niners here, And you know, I can't believe that the Rams are in this spot the way they look the last month of the regular season, coming into the playoffs to then just crush the Cardinals, which was, you know, great for them to see both those teams back then. It's good to see one pick up and go and then you go, all right. Now they're going on the road against Tampa Bay. I don't know about that. They let Tampa Bay come all the way back and then have to have those huge heroics

Put up an offensive touchdown.

Yeah, but but Green Bay didn't either, and I think a lot of that had to do with Baper. Okay, I thought you said didn't score more than ten points, So they didn't.

They didn't put up an offensive touchdown, That's the thing I mean. And Jimmy Garoppolo when they got close, what did Jimmy Garoppolo do he became jim Garoppolo throws picks.

They they have survived the Jimmy Garoppolo disaster two weeks in a row. But he doesn't have it every single week. It's the playoffs. He might have it again this week and no one would be shocked, me least of all. Like, you know, I can't wait for Jimmy to be the Steelers quarterback next year because they're definitely gonna go to Trey Lance. They just gave up three first round picks for him. Unless they win the Super Bowl, I think Jimmy G's getting traded out.

Of even if they win the Super Bowl. I think it would be nuts to bring Garoppolo back. I really do.

Yeah, you know, and this is a franchise. You know that we've seen. They traded Joe Montana, right, so they're not afraid to make a change even if they have success.

So uh had a Montana.

Right, right? I think I think he's gone.

But what he's doing right now is giving himself another shot in the NFL, that's for sure. And even making the big mistakes, you know, it hasn't been enough to kill them and knock them out. I think the weather had a huge factor last week, you know, for both sides, and everyone wants to give Green Bay this great home field advantage.

It doesn't really matter who you are or how long you've been used to it.

When it's zero degrees, it's just bitter, angry cold, and everyone feels miserable.

I think that's just the way it is.

Yeah, but they lost to the Giants, dude, and I know the Giants are a cold weather team too, but come on, you have this advantage, so anyway, you know, I think that I just don't think you're gonna have the same issues.

You know.

Tom Brady and the Bucks lost because Joe Wells was giving up so much pressure, so much pressure. I mean, he gave up six pressures in a couple of sacks.

You know.

Brady couldn't keep himself upright in that game. I know Trent Williams got hurt and he is a big question mark for this game for the Niners, but he thinks he's gonna be good to go. And Kyle Shanahan said, look, if Trent says he's good to go, he's good to go, right, I'm not gonna question him, you know, So I think he's gonna end up playing.

They dominated this team.

You saw the Rams have to go through the whole bit of trying not to sell tickets to this certain zip codes.

I did because the Niners are going to migrate, you know.

But that's always been the case. And this is something where this is just La. It's just La. It's always been just la.

It happens in Arizona too, man, you know, I'm from Arizona. With the Cardinals. There's so many transplants on the West Coast. They grow up rooting for other teams and then they want to go see their team playing.

That's just the way it is.

But you know, when we talk about that lack of home field advantage, it's something that I brought up time as I'm again on this show during the year. In fact, when Dan and I were doing the look Ahead show a couple of weeks ago, is the first thing I said was the forty nine ers own the Rams. There's no home field advantage. I would take the forty nine ers again just to win outright. That was my upset of the week, and the Rams were favored in that one too, and guess what they lost again. I just

I'm taking the Niners on the money line. There's something, there's some type of voodoo magic going on with this team where Jimmy g can throw a pick on the road in Dallas and still win, not score a touchdown in Green Bay in the cold, in the playoffs line and the pick and still win.

There's some type of weird voodoo magic going on here. It's called defense with then I mean it's defense.

And Deebo Samuel, which brings me to the at this point, Deebo Samuel got the crap kicked out of him that game. I mean, he was coming off and on any concerned about his potential health coming into this game, regardless of practice status, because how many get knocked around quite a bit in that one.

He was on his feet at the end of the game. That's all I care about, you know. So I think that they'll give him all the good goofballs and he'll go out there and be fine. So I knows I took all the goofballs before this show today out of way.

Yeah all right, So let's go to the over under here in your opinion, the forty five and a half. That is the consensus number over up bettingpros dot com. What are your thoughts there on the forty five and a half.

So what you just said, Joe defense. You know, both these teams have been playing solid defense only a half for LA last week for whatever reason. But the Niners have been playing solid defense throughout the season, and I don't see why that is not going to continue. Also, you know there are concerns with the Niners. Like you

A weird indoor environment.

You don't think of this nasty, you know, gross defenses that you know, clog everything up in an indoor stadium, but that's what we've been getting from both of these teams recently.

So I'm gonna stick with it and go with the end.

Yeah, I think I agree with you there. I agree with you on the under for this one too. I think we disagree on the outcome. But if you want to take the Niners into three and a half. I feel better than that than the Niners winning outright. I just think it's the Rams time to exercise the demons. It feels like that for Matthew Stafford, I think I think that's that's where they're at with the mojo. So we'll come back next week and we'll figure out who

We Go?

Where's Jonathan? Yeah it was not Jonathan Taylor, but John Taylor. You have to go back to those days. So a whole different eraror right there, and that's the that's the famous two minute drive where Joe Montana said, Hey, look, John Candy's in the front right right. I love that one. I love that story. That's the best favorite John Candy movie. Bogman, do you have Uncle Buck? Is it?

Uncle Buck?

Is it?

Planes? Trains and automobiles?

That's it? I mean, there's so many good ones. You know you is a quality one, right? That is so good? Have you seen wider Whites?

I mean the just flipping the pancake with the gigantic snowshovel and then going in and beating up that girl's ex boyfriend.

I mean, just Uncle Blockock is Yeah, there you go.

So a little betting, a little John Candy. All right, let's move to the individuals here, And if you go to Betting Pros dot com you check out our prop bet cheat sheet, which is fantastic because it gives you basically where the lines are for are some of these prop bets and the consensus and then the Fantasy Pros projections on that side of the BP projection side of what you got here. So cam Aker is the first one that comes up for rushing yards fifty five and

I mean, I know, you know Tony Michelle.

Tony Michelle hasn't fumbled in a million years, so you know, two he cops it up twice almost cost him the game.

I don't know.

I don't know what his role is going to be this week. I don't know of what their confidence level and him is again. And if he you know, if he cops it up one more time, he is going straight to the bench. So I have no confidence in his yards. Also, I would stray away from this bet, all.

Right, Jimmy Garoppolo passing yards twenty two I'm sorry, two twenty five and a.

Half is the nice SA.

I'll take the over on twenty two two twenty five and a half and the projection is to forty two, So that's a pretty big difference. So it's a sixteen point difference. You think Jimmy G's got a two twenty five in him?

No, once again, I'm gonna take the under if I'm taking the Niners. I think they win, and I think you win by not letting Jimmy g throw the ball that much, so I think you win with the run game. So I'm not gonna take that bet either under if I'm beat.

I agree on the under with that one, and the under on Acres were two for two on that I think they have two. Forty two is a big number there in terms of the projectability Byron Pringle, another guy who's gotten himself involved lately, thirty five and a half on the receiving number for him. The projections have him at forty six point three four or it's a ten point plus of difference your thoughts on Byron Pringle over under thirty five and a half from him.

I think that number is fine.

I think gun in my head, I would bet the over, but I'm not gonna bet that number. Just because they got Mikole Hardman, yeah so involved last week and designed a bunch of plays for him, and they worked. He almost scored twice. He almost scored the game winner in overtime after already scoring earlier in the game. So I think they like what Harbin has been doing recently and gonna get him more involved. But that's just with the way Mahomes have been playing Pringles on the field, he

All right Now, these numbers that we're looking at are points bet. I'm gonna throw two more points bet numbers at you right now. Joe Mixon fifty five and a half on the rushing side, the projections on BP have a sixty six.

Point eleven way over that.

I agree. I think that's an easy one. That's a give me on that one. Receiving yards on points bet for George Kittle fifty and a half, the projections have him at fifty six. Now, you know, Kittle has really kind of, I honestly fallen off because that's not fair. But at the same point, it has been a while since we've seen consistency out of George Kittle putting up big receiving totals. What do you think about this particular week?

I agree with that, you know, Kittle hasn't been at his absolute best right now. But what I'll say for this is I'm going to take the over because that's how you attack the Rams.

You attack them over the middle.

You know, because Travin Howard playing linebacker with these beat up safeties that they have too, I think Kittle can once again. This is something where you know, Kittle breaks one tackle and he's getting thirty, So you know, how many more catches does he need?

Two or three? I would go with the over on that.

All right, let's move over to another one. Jamar Chase's number over on FANDUL for receiving arts eighty five and a half. Projections have him at ninety three. So does Jamar Chase do it to him again? Box?

You sure projections don't have him two hundred and fifteen. Joe, you gotta take the over on Chase.

You know.

Look, you think every week, well, they're gonna double and bracket Chase, so they're gonna have to go to Higgins and it keeps not happening. So I don't know, Man, They're gonna find a way to get the ball and chase his hand.

He's great with the yak. I'm gonna go over that number.

Matthew Stafford at bet MGM two eighty two is the passing yard number two seventy six of the projection, so a little on the minus side there. Do you think Stafford goes over under the eighty two and a half to eighty two and a half? Excuse me?

Yeah, that's a great number.

I'm gonna stray away from this number, but if I had to pick something, I'd pick the over. I got the Niners winning this game, so I think the Rams are gonna have to play catch up at some point. And we see a decent amount of yards, and we know after seeing that late drive he can get seventy of that on two passes to Cooper Cup. So I will go with the over on Matt Stafford.

All right, speaking of Cooper Cup here, are you interested in reception numbers or you were interested more in the total more yards?

For me?

Okay? All right, very good, because I mean I think when you're looking at him at this point, it's amazing because you know the ball's going to him and on bet MGM right, not one two is the receiving yards. I mean that feels like an over to me.

Yeah, I mean, yes, it's got The weakness of the Niners defense is the secondary. But this is why Dimiko Ryan has been getting so many head coaching interviews right, because he has these guys playing incredibly right now. So yeah, I think I think I'm gonna go with with the over on that though. I mean, it's just in a big time spot. You gotta you gotta bank on Cooper Cup showing up all right.

Last one here, Patrick Mahomes uh and this one right here? The number, well, I don't know. You want to hear the number first?

Yeah, well I'll hear it.

But I'm gonna.

Nine and a half over, okay, over three hundred. Look, you know the run was working. I don't know if if if you remember, but there was a point in the game. I don't know how how many touches ch ended up with, but they said, well, that's Clyde Edwards Hilaire's fourth carry.

He has forty nine yards. It's like, what give him the ball a little more?

Then? I know if it's four for forty nine in that game, I thought he looked great, but McKinnon looked better. And it's Mahomes show man. They're not taking the ball out of his hands. So I'm taking the over whatever they give for Mahomes there, he's gonna crush it.

Shout out to JP who's joining us live here on Betting Pros on the YouTube side, which he chimed in on the John Candy conversation Spaceballs It's great. Also very summer rental, also a classic.

I don't think I've ever seen some rentals.

Oh Somemer rental, cool Runnings. The list goes on and on.

John, I think you're the only human being that's seen more movies than I have.

Joe probably, probably, But I also worked in a videos during college, so.

That also had something were you're not supposed to be there that day.

I was never supposed to be there, you know. Fifteen bucks little man, Oh goodness gracious. And again I encourage everybody out there to subscribe to our YouTube channel over at Betting Pros because we'll be bringing a content through the Super Bowl as well, and not to mention, when baseball season kicks around, we'll be there. We'll be there probably doing shows about the NFL Draft before you know it, and a lot of exciting things to be wagering on. It's a very exciting time to be part of it.

No, I mean just that I will be surprised if Patrick Mahomes doesn't have the magic, But the NFC Championship to me can go either way, and I won't.

Look.

The Bengals are a good team, and you know, I know I don't like them, but I'm not trying to take anything away from them. They're fantastic. But whatever whatever Mahomes is on, we should all be on. And maybe it goes away after this game, you know, because you get that two week layout for the super Bowl.

But he has been outstanding, so I can't bet against I.

Think he's flipped the switch. And it's funny if you look back in the last twenty years, the teams that lose the Super Bowl typically don't do very well. The only quarterbacks that really got back after losing and still had good seasons after that there were two of them. One was named Russell Wilson, the other was some guy named Tom Brady. So Patrick Mahomes might be the third person.