Hey there, everybody. Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL Podcast, brought to you by Bett MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. It was a wild divisional round weekend and we have a ton to talk about. With me to break things down this week is Ian McMillan, a writer over at oddshark dot com. You can find them on Twitter at Ian macOS Ian. Thanks for coming back on how you doing.
I'm doing fantastic. It was an absolute whirlwind of a weekend of games, some wild games. So yeah, let's get into it.
You knew one of the big favorites was gonna lose, right, I mean, the books aren't going to take a bath on all these moneyline parlays. You knew that somewhere one of these teams, either the Chiefs or the Ravens, probably something was gonna go crazy. I mean I didn't expect it, but I mean this is the way it works, right, This is how gambling works. The unexpected happens, and somehow, I'm sure the books made a total killing on that game.
Oh absolutely. And I mean like something I was looking at all week was I was tempted. I looked at it almost every day. I was tempted just to take a three team money line parlay of the forty nine Ers, Ravens, and Chiefs. But something kept telling me, now, one of those teams are gonna lose, and sure enough they did. So I'm glad I held off on that. Now.
You've been on quite a run actually lately. I mean I follow you on Twitter. You've been doing very well with your picks to that hold for the divisional round in the NFL. Or did you take a bath like a lot of betters.
Yeah, no, I've Yeah, I've done pretty well this year. That held in the divisional round. It went three to one and one in the divisional round that I lost in the last game the my Packers Seahawks pick so six one and one total in the NFL playoffs so far. So I'm doing well.
All right, let's keep it going then into next week. So we are doing things a little bit differently this week. We usually record and publish on Monday night, but we figured why wait, football's fresh on everyone's mind, let's just jump into it. So we are recording this on Sunday night, like right after the Seahawks Packers game ended. Because there are only two games next week, we're going to change
it up a little bit for this early show. Were to break down each of the divisional weekends games first before looking ahead to next week. And if you are at all familiar with my work, you know that this is my happy place because I host the Sunday night recap show for the Fantasy Pros Football podcast. So I am all about breaking things down with zero time to think about them. So let's just jump in right here
with the forty nine Ers twenty seven Vikings ten. This was a seven point spread and it wasn't something I personally really wanted to get involved with at that number, the key number. It honestly felt like a little bit of value on the Vikes to me, but nothing I really wanted to trust. But as I mentioned on Thursday, I felt extremely confident that the forty nine Ers were gonna win this one. I talked about on Thursday show Kwan Alexander d Ford coming back with Tart. I mean,
the key defenders on defense returning. I thought they'd be able to get pressure on Cousins without blitzing, which they did six sacks, the passing offense for the Vikings cannot get anything going. The defense is completely The defense completely shuts down Dalvin Cook just nine rushes for eighteen yards. The offense. Meanwhile, after the Garoppolo interception, they got conservative
a bit. Garoppolo attempts only nineteen passes there was for one hundred and thirty one yards and a touchdown with the one pick. The running backs tally forty two carries, twenty two for Tevin Coleman of course, for one hundred and five yards and two scores, where he mostered twelve for fifty eight Mattbrita eight for seventeen. He does lose a fumble at the end. I believe Mostart hurt his
calf at some point in the second half. Doesn't sound too severe, and there's rumors that Coleman banged up his elbow, So it doesn't sound like either one's availability for next week's game against the Packers is in doubt. But we'll break down that specific matchup with the Packers in a bit. But I mean, after seeing this game, you have to be pretty impressed with the forty nine ers, right, Oh.
Absolutely. I mean they look like a complete team offense, defense. I mean, I thought the forty nine Ers in this game. I thought this was was this was the pick I was the most confident in this weekend. I think there was a lot of recency bias from the Vikings beating the Saints last weekend, but Kirk Cousins on the road West Coast. This time. They were playing on a grass field. It wasn't a dome like they were playing against the Saints, So I think it was a little bit of recency
bias went into that line. So I like the forty nine Ers. That's why I took them the minus seven. I wasn't too afraid of that big spread. The big thing is the forty nine Ers defense, and in throughout the whole season they've been like a top two, top three defensive unit the entire season, and not too many people are talking about that, especially the pass defense as well. Outside of that long pass, I believe that was to Digs right early in the game to make it seven
to seven. Other than that long pass, they completely contained the passing game with at least one interception. I know Richard Sherman got an interception, was one interception or two? Such a whirlwind the games because that was the first one but at least one interception there. I mean that forty nine ers pass defenses might be the best pass defense in the league right now, definitely the best pass defense left over to the teams that are left. So forty nine Ers they are looking good. Yeah.
I mean, for me again, part of the reason why I didn't feel comfortable at the seven is just, I mean, as good as the forty nine ers are, they just they've played a ton of close games, right, I mean basically the last five or six weeks, they're within one score when they were winning. So they just didn't strike me as the type of team that's going to be able to necessarily blow out the Vikings, who I kind
of feel like we're a little underrated, you know. I get that everybody was jumping on them because of the fact that they went into New Orleans and beat the Saints, but you know, part of the thing with them is they were dealing without a healthy Adam Feelin for a long time, without a healthy Dalvin Cook. So with both of those guys back, and of course you have this weird injury where theelan apparently gets spiked, you know, during practice and kind of almost messes up his Achilles or
something like that. So there were all these weird things that went into it, but you made the key point, which is the defense. It was one interception, by the way, I just confirmed that. But it's Kwan Alexander coming back, which I did not expect to necessarily see him at all for the remainder of the season. D Ford, who didn't play a full complement of snaps, but he's able to get pressure so easily when you combine him with Bosa in particular, you know, in Armstead and then Tart
out there just kind of helps the entire defense. And again it's got an elite pass defense coming in, of course, but Tart coming back really also kind of made everything just whole. And you see, especially playing at home. We'll get into that game against the Packers, but it's right now, they just look really scary. Does it worry you at all? I mean, look, they had the game. It wasn't though, like they were way ahead the entire time. I mean
they wound up winning twenty seven to ten. But again after Garoppolo threw that pick, which was you know, not a great pick, I mean he just didn't he just didn't view the defender coming in they went really really conservative on offense, and they just ran the ball. You know, they obviously had that driver. They ran it eight times straight to get in. Does it worry you at all coming in as to whether you know Garoppolo is up
for the task. You know, he's got at least one more game, possibly too if he makes to the Super Bowl. Considering I mean he attempted only nineteen passes one hundred and thirty one yards. I don't know if that's necessarily going to be able to get it done, or do you just think that they said, you know, we've got this game where just gonna rely on our run game because we think our defense can hold the four.
I mean, for most cases, if you can just run the ball, and if you're as successful out of it as the forty nine ers are, why even why do you need to pass the ball? So, I mean, running the ball is a little bit less risky Grapplo. I mean, I see where you're coming from, because I'm kind of slightly questioned the ball season, but he's played very solid
throughout the entire season. He didn't he hasn't really had any games where like, oh geez, that was a stinker, and I think a huge advantage the forty nine ers have and I think this was actually showed pretty clearly in this game against the Vikings as the coaching advantage. I think Kyle Shanahan is a fantastic coach. I love how much he uses motion on offense. It's something like seventy eight percent of his plays they do a motion pre snap, which is really interesting when you watch that.
And of course, me being a former Falcons fan, I try a little bit every time I see Kyle Shanahan having success him in tivin Coleman because of course he was the Falcons offensive coordinator when they went to the Super Bowl, they let him go. So I'm a big KYLEE. Shanahan fan. I think he is one of the best coaches in the NFL right now, and I think that
showed a lot in that Vikings game. And we're gonna see I mean, we're gonna talk about the game against the Packers here shortly, but I think we're gonna we might see that a battle a couple of New Wish head coaches there next weekend. And I think Kyle Shanahan's gonna keep shining.
Yeah, I think he is too. And speaking of winning games when your quarterback doesn't have to do much. Let's move on to the Titans twenty eight Ravens twelve. As we said, you know, this was the one game. I gotta imagine that whatever else happened this weekend for the books, the fact that this blew up all the money line parlays just completely made their weekend. The Titans, they controlled this game pretty much the entire way through. Ryan Tannehill
does almost nothing again, seven completions, eighty eight yards. He does throw the two touchdowns, it's all Derreck Henry again thirty carries one hundred and ninety five yards, despite the fact that I mean he was you watch that game. He's facing eight man fronts constantly in that game, and he's just plowing right through him. He also throws for a touchdown crying out loud. I mean, I I think that really leads just to the one big question that
most people have coming out of that game. How much would someone have to offer you to attempt to tackle Derek Henry coming at you with a bullhead of steam? And what's the number.
I'd do for free? Just see if I could do it. I used to play football back in the day. I played a little bit of college football up here in Canada as well. I was a running back, so I was the one getting hit like Derek Henry's. I mean, he's a beast, no doubt about it. I'd like to see if I could die. I mean, I'm sure I couldn't, but it'd be fun. I wouldn't mind being run over. I've been run over a couple of times in my career.
So yeah, right, I just want to know that that's a terrible answer. The correct answer is sixteen thousand, four hundred and eighty dollars. All right. But meanwhile, the Ravens in this game, they're just off. They dropped a ton of passes, Lamar Jackson, turned the ball over three times. Mark Ing was banged up at first. Let me just ask, is this a game you feel like the Titans, you know, really won and they took it, or is this a game that the Ravens just kind of gave it to them?
Oh? I think the Titans won. I think they took it. I think I think they they did what they had to do. And just to stay on the topic of Derrick Henry there and what I find most impressive about Derek Henry and it showed quite a bit in this game, and I think they briefly mentioned it during the broadcast as well. It's not necessarily the big runs that he keeps busting off. It's when guys get in the backfield and then he still ends up getting like a four
or five yard game. It's insane. It's like he almost doesn't even need an offensive line. He's gonna get four yards every single time that he touches the ball. It's absolutely insane. Titans did exactly what they had to do with their game plan was fantastic. I was impressed with what Mike Frabele brought to the table that game. I love how he's doing like workouts with some of the other guys on the team right before kickoff. I think that's hilarious. He's passionate, and I think the whole team
after that Patriots whin. They came into this game with a lot of confidence and that's just gonna keep rolling. I like the Titans right now. I think they're kind of one of those surprise teams, like we kind of saw the Giants there a handful of years ago, like a nine and seven team going to the playoffs. They're just hitting their stride at the perfect time, and I'm interested see what they're gonna do next week. But yeah, the Titans won that game. The other thing, I'm kind
of Baltimore they were rusty. I think that was very clear that they're rusty. I don't know if I agree with their decision of sitting all their important starters in week seventeen when they had the bye week the next week. I mean that's two full weeks they completely took off. I think that kind of showed this weekend.
Yeah, although to be fair, again, you know, the Chiefs came out completely flat and they played everybody right in Week seventeen, so you never really know what it was. And again, you know with the Ravens, the only thing I'll say is, as much as you know the Titans, really they were the better team on that day. In my opinion, I agree with you there. You know, the Ravens never get stopped on fourth down, and you know they went forward a couple of times and they didn't
get it. They make it both those times, the game might be completely different, right, I mean, it's those little things that sort of happened in that game. But I agree with you the Titans right now. Look, they're extremely strong defensively. Ryan Tannehill, you know, he's not being asked to do all that much, but he's playing smart football, right He's you know, you can see him when he knows it's not there. He's not going to take usually the killer sack, and he's not going to try to
force it into coverage. He's going to throw it away. He's going to protect them. And Derek Henry is a beast running the ball. I mean you said it. The number of times where he runs into the line and it's like, all right, there is nothing there and he just sort of plows forward for five yards. I mean, there is a huge difference when you're looking at second
and five as opposed to second and eight. As much as the NFL has changed, if you play lockdown defense, if you can run the ball, you've got a chance to do something in the playoffs, right, So, I mean, I'm in agreement with you. I'm really interested to see where they go forward. Do you think, to be honest, that this team has a chance. I mean there's only four teams left, so yeah, they've got a chance, but a realistic chance to win the Super Bowl.
Yes, I think they do. And the point that you mentioned about Tannahill is dead on. He's been very efficient. I think that's the word I've been kind of using for Ryan Tannehill. He's making the throzy ass to make, he's not making too many mistakes. He's only had one interception the last four games that he started in. He's doing exactly what what he needs to do. He's managing the game and he's just letting Derek Henry take over.
So yeah, I mean, if they can get through the Patriots and the Ravens, that they can beat anyone, So why not? Why not Super Bowl?
And you keep waiting for their efficiency in the red zone to die out, but it's just not. I mean every time they get in the Renzo, they're basically scoring a touchdown. So yeah, it's going to be interesting. We'll break down that game against the Chiefs in a minute, but before we move on and talk about today's games, I do want to tell everyone about the sponsor of the today's show, bet MGM, and specifically the bet MGM
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use his free wager. I noticed that the Packers Seahawks total had dropped to forty six at one point, so I said, given what he's got riding on the under fifty three on that game, take his free four hundred dollars bet. Take the over on the forty six. If the game went over forty six, he wins his free bet. The game goes under fifty three, he wins his teaser. The game lands between forty six and fifty three, he wins both. And it was dicey for a minute, but
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You must be twenty one years or older, and although you can sign up an easily deposit money anywhere, you must be in the state of New Jersey to plays a sports bet, and certain restrictions apply. Visit BETMGM dot com for the full list of terms and conditions. And if you've got a gambling problem, call one eight hundred gambler. All right, Ian, let's get to the real wild one that Chiefs fifty one, Texans thirty one. All I can
say is thank goodness for in game wagering. Okay, I mean I felt relatively confident even when the Chiefs saw way behind, that they were going to find a way to win that game. It's Bill O'Brien to Patrick Mahomes,
but it's fourteen nothing. The Textans are about to come in for another score, and you know that team from Braveheart, the first big battle where the cavalry's charging and Mel Gibson the screaming hold hold, and of course right then, only the cavalry gets just close enough and he screams no, and they all pick up the long sticks as a defense. That's legit how I felt as I'm watching the in game odds. It's fourteen to nothing. The Chiefs are still
in game two point favorites. It's twenty one nothing, and the money line is still just like plus one point thirty on the Chiefs. I'm like, hold, hold, And finally it's twenty four to nothing. The in game money line on the Chiefs is like plus two ten and they're getting seven, and I'm like no. And that made up for a long weekend. But that is really one of the reasons why if you are gambling, make sure you're paying attention to in game wagers, because there's certainly a
way to maximize your winning. Anyway, the Chiefs went crazy, fourth biggest comeback and playoff history. Travis Kelcey and Damian Williams score three touchdowns each. The homes throws for five touchdowns. The offense looks borderline unstoppable. The defense, however, obviously struggled for at least the first half. Deshaun Watson threw for three hundred eighty eight yards two touchdowns. DeAndre Hopkins, Kenny Stills,
Wolfeler they each had at least eighty yeards receiving. So you've got a game where the Chiefs were down twenty four to nothing at home against a mediocre team, but they ultimately win in a blowout. Do you feel better about the Chiefs worse about the Chiefs or the same that you felt coming in about the Chiefs.
I think through all of that, I think I feel the same about the Chiefs, to be completely honest. I mean, I just have to say that was probably one of the most wild football games I've ever watched. I mean, I even though last year wasn't a huge comeback, I was thinking of last year's Chiefs and Rams Monday night game just with how many points were scored. Just an insane game to watch. I was just laughing out loud
watching the game. It was nuts to see that twenty four and then they not only did they make the comeback from twenty four to nothing, they did it all in one quarter. They were winning at halftime. It was insane. But that's I mean, that is the Chiefs. They are extreme. They have an extremely explosive offense that can do that
to any team. And don't forget Tech. The Texans were one of the worst defenses all year as well, so it wasn't totally surprising to see an explosive offense like that put up one points against that bad of a defense. So I mean, it's kind of what I expected. Also, I think Bill O'Brien kind of shot himself in the foot there a couple times when they did have the lead as well, so it wasn't totally surprising. But man, that was a fun game to watch.
Yeah, I don't know, man, I feel a little worse about them, And that sounds insane, right, because they just had this incredible comeback. They wound up winning by twenty points. But you said it that Texans do not have an imposing defense, right, I mean, you should be able to basically do what you want to do. After they're coming off a very hard fought game against the Bills. You've had, you know, a week to rest, and again, you're not
supposed to really be rusty. You had the game against the Charters in week seventeen where you should be ready to go, And the fact that they fall behind like that initially is kind of scary, especially because one of the reasons I really like the Chiefs is how well the defense had been playing, right. I mean, realistically, they had just started to put it all together over the last I don't know, five or six weeks. They were
holding opponents way down. I don't know whether or not it was the injury to Thornhill or whatever that kind of messed them up a little bit. But it makes me a little worried about them because you know, they're going to go up against the Titans, and again, we'll talk about that game specifically in a minute, but I don't think they're going to be able to just do whatever they want offensively. I mean, the Titans are in
a completely different class off defensively than the Texans. And I realized that the Texans beat the Titans a couple of weeks ago, so you know, but that's just kind of what football in right now. You don't really feel confident that, you know, the Texans would be able to hang with the Titans if they played with them. The Titans defense is very strong, they're playing well, you know, given the struggles of the Chiefs defense. This actually makes me a little more worried about them than I was
coming in. Is that crazy?
No, I mean, no, that's not crazy at all. And to be honest, like you said, I mean, we're going to talk about with this AFC Championship game here soon, but I'm I'm just from a betting percent for a perspective. I'm kind of glad that they had that's such a
huge offensive burst there because the public is. I guarantee you the public's gonna love them next week because of that recency bias, and I think just because that offensive explained, I mean fifty one points, the public's gonna see that, and I think they're gonna they're gonna bet on them. So yeah, from the eye like that, and we're gonna get in that game here soon. But yeah, I mean I wasn't too sold on the Chiefs going into the game to begin with, though, so that's why I kind
of still feel the same. It's kind of what I expected. Their defenses is decent, They're not great, They're not bad. I mean, Deshaun Watson is a winner, so I think you have to kind of put you have to take that into consideration as well. He was gonna have a good game today regardless. I think it's Deshaun Watson. He
can bring it when the pressure's on. So I think part of that was just kind of Deshaun Watson doing Deshaun Watson things as well, So I think you have to kind of take that in consideration.
I think that's certainly a fair spin. So we'll talk about that Titans Chiefs game in the second, but first let's get to the last game of this past weekend Packers twenty eight, Seahawks twenty three. This ended right before we started recording, so it's real fresh in our minds. I don't think it's rocket science to say that the Seahawks should probably just le Russell Wilson do his thing right from the start instead of trying to run the ball with you know, old and backup running backs. That's
a story for another time, though. I'm interested to hear your thoughts here because this feels like another game in a long list of games for the Packers where you leave and you think they're not that good of a team. I mean, Aaron Rodgers sixteen to twenty seven for two hundred and forty three yards and two touchdowns, both to Devontae Adams, who had a huge game with one hundred and six yards. I'll admit that Rogers made a couple of incredible throws, especially right at the end there to
Devontae Adams, where he just dropped it in. Aaron Jones rushes twenty one times only sixty two yards. He does score two touchdowns. I mean, the Seahawks are not a particularly imposing defense, so they didn't look great offensively. Here the defense for the Packers. They do sack Russell Wilson five times, but it certainly didn't have this dominant defensive effort feel to the whole thing. So I asked it with the Chiefs. How about the Packers after this game? Better, worse?
The same? How are you feeling this idea?
Yeah? The same. I'm not a huge believer in the Packers. I think, to be completely frank and blunt, I think they're one of the worst thirteen to three teams ever. And actually, if you look at the stats, they do have the worst point differential, like the plus minus point differential of any thirteen to three team. Ever, they barely held on to that against the Seahawks. And I read
something earlier today about the Seahawks. If you took every single score game that was decided by a single score in the NFL season this year and flipped the result, the Seahawks would have been the worst team in the NFC. They would have been three and thirteen if you flipped all those singles score games. So the Seahawks really worn't that great of a team, and the Packers barely held on to that win. I mean a big reason of that, but just because, like you said, Russell Wilson can just
completely take over the game. And that's why the Seahawks got into the playoffs just because of Russell Wilson. So but I mean for the Packers to have impressed me, they would have had to really have handled the Seahawks, and they did at the start, but then they let them completely climb back in and the Seahawks could have won that game. If Russell Wilson didn't take that there on third down, the Seahawks could have went down and scored a touchdown and won the game. So I'm not
sold on the Packers whatsoever. And that's that's how I felt going into it. I didn't bet on a side in this game. I ended up taking the under, so I that was my first loss in the NFL playoffs. But I didn't really trust either offense. But that's why I didn't bet on the side, because I think both the Seahawks and the Packers aren't as good as the records have shown. So I didn't believe in the Packers before the game. I don't believe in the Packers moving forward.
Yeah, I completely agree. And the thing is it's probably not going to be an issue next week. But they have to learn how to essentially put their foot on the throat of their opponents, right because the second half they barely score. They just they just ease up and
they sort of play keep away. And it really could have and probably should have cost them in this game, because you're right, I mean that last drive Wilson got the ball back with you know, four or five minutes left, and you thought, okay, you can drive them right down and square the touchdown. So yeah, I have a feeling Ian that you and I are probably both going to be looking at the games next week similarly. But I agree, I was not impressed with this performance. And again, the
Seahawks aren't that good a team. I mean, it's really Wilson. So the fact that the Packers wound up victorious in their home field by five points not like a huge sign that, Wow, this team really has what it takes. I'm certainly worried about them going into San Francisco next week, and we'll talk about that in a second, but before we do, I want to mind everyone about our giveaway. It's a sign Michael Thomas Saint's helmet running through the
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next week. The Chiefs are hosting the Titans. So the early consensus lines here, and I want to stress this, they're probably all over the point at the place this line in particular, I've seen differences of two points. But the consensus line I've got right now is the Chiefs laying seven and a half with the total at fifty one and a half. So again, I've seen this at nine and a half at some places when they open. I don't know where their gunment, but it's gonna move around.
So bear that in mind. But for our purposes, we'll take it at the Chiefs laying seven and a half with the total at fifty one and a half, it's a really interesting game to me. I mean, they've obviously they've met before the Titans one thirty five, thirty two, although they probably did not deserve to win that game. But forget that for a second. Go back to the
middle of the year. There became this formula for trying to beat the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes right, run the ball a ton, control the clock, keep Mahomes off the field. That's how the Colts did it when they won. That's how the Texans did it when they won. And that's really the exact forma that the Titans look to use in pretty much every game. And you look at this game with the Chiefs putting up fifty one, and you think, how is any defense supposed to stop Mahomes at this point?
But the Titans just legitimately shut down what looked to be the most unstoppable offense in the NFL. So look, you've had a couple of minutes to digest this entire weekend. How do you feel here with the consensus line just over a touchdown and the big total at fifty one and a half.
I absolutely love the Titans. I mean I touched on this earlier. I think it's the recency bias of seeing the Chiefs put up that many points is why the line is where it's at right now. The big thing I'm looking at, I mean, we have it. Like you mentioned, these two teams played earlier in the season, so we can. I mean it's gonna be different. They're gonna make coaching changes or strategy changes, i should say, heading into this game.
But the big thing that I'm looking at when I look at the box score of their thirty five thirty two win over the Chiefs earlier in the season, Dereck Henry in that game twenty three carries one hundred and eighty eight yards two touchdowns. That's an average of eight point two yards per carrying that game. So you're given a team more than a touchdown worth of points in a game where they beat them earlier in the year, and their star player who they're leaning on now in
the playoffs, just absolutely torch them. That doesn't make any sense to me, especially with I mean, the Titans have to be riding high right now, the amount of confidence they have to be feeling going into this game, after beating the Patriots, after beating the top team in the league, the Ravens. I mean, they are going to be a
very confident team heading into this year. Now. When they did play early in the season, it was in Tennessee, so this time it is obviously going to be in Kansas City, so that might make a little bit of a difference. But I absolutely love the Titans at that number. I think I should lock that in soon because I think money might start to come in on the Titans once people get over the recency bias of seeing the Chiefs put up fifty one points there today. So I think it might be good to get in on the
Titans early. As far as the total, I think I would have to lean. I would have to lean the over. I mean, Patrick mahomes with put up fifty fifty one points today and then Derek Henry is gonna get them a lot of a lot of yards and points there when they play as well, So I'd have to lean
the over a little bit. It makes me a little bit nervous because anytime there's there's a team that runs the ball a lot, I think you want to look more at the under because the more you run the ball, obviously, the more clock you eat up, which is less time for points. But at that number where it's at right now, I would lean the over in that. So I like the Titans in the over.
Yeah, I like the Titans too, as long as it's above a touchdown. I do do you have any interest? By the way, I mean, the Titans are plus two eighty five on the money line. That doesn't really entice me there. I feel like the points, but I'm just wondering about you.
Yeah, No, I wouldn't. I wouldn't take No. I mean I was on Titans plus ten against the Ravens and then hindsight, obviously I wish I took that huge is like a plus three fifty money line. So maybe I should learn from that mistake and sprinkle the money line a little bit this weekend. But no, I think I think I'll just stick with the with with with the points and you and you mentioned that briefly there too, as long as it stays at seven or above, that's
where like the Titans. If it dips, blow that magic number of seven, and that's where I would be a little bit more cautious.
Yeah, I completely agree. I above seven, I like the Titans. It's interesting because you mentioned it, so you think that this, as the week goes on, is probably going to come down then, right?
I don't know. I mean maybe because I just think it opened up such a big line because of the game today. We saw the Chiefs put up fifty one points in three quarters, So I would think maybe people are going to start thinking about a little bit more too. Logically as the week goes on, and sharp money was probably going to come in on the Titans, I would think, so, yes, yes, yeah, I would think it's going to get closer closer, it's going to go lower as the week goes on.
I don't know why. I guess I feel that this is the way it's going to go because you've got the Titans who have just knocked off the Patriots and the Ravens, so you feel like that the public would be on them. But I feel like the public is the Titan. You know, the public's going to just be enamored of the fifty one points right and Patrick Mahomes and just going to want to go all over the Chiefs. And I agree that the Sharps are probably going to be hitting the Titans and that's going to at least
keep it in check. But yeah, I don't have a good feeling for but I agree with you that I'm gonna get a planet now while it's seven and a half because I do like that number, and it could you know, it's not gonna rise anywhere crazy. It's not gonna go up to like ten or anything like that. So you know, as long as you're above seven, you know, the difference between seven and a half eight eight and a half, it's not that big a deal. So I feel like locking in it now. And with the total
look I to say it. I mean I went with the under this week, which was over by halftime, so it's certainly not something that I feel great about. I would still lean the under here, man, I mean I get it. I just I see this as more of you know, the Titans putting up a pretty big defensive effort going into this game, and you know, I could
see it being close. It's probably not one the I'm going to pull the trigger on but at the opening number, despite what you know, the fact that the Chiefs basically just went over this number by themselves, I think I would still probably lean towards the under, but not enough to make a play on it. Forty nine Ers hosting the Packers, so their early consensus lines again the forty nine Ers laying seven with the total at forty five.
Another rematch here. The previous game in Week twelve was a dominant performance by the Niners thirty seven to eight. Aaron Rodgers was sacked five times. George Kittle had one hundred and twenty nine yards. Look, it's a significant spread. Both these spreads are pretty significant for a conference. You know, seven points in a playoff game, it's no joke. I think I know how you feel here. I think I
probably feel the same. But what are your thoughts here on the spread of seven with the total at forty five.
Yeah, just just quickly mentioned two pretty big spreads for championship games. I'm gonna look into it tomorrow, but I wonder if this is the first time that both championship games have been lines of a touchdown or more. That's kind of interesting. But yes, I am definitely going with the forty nine Ers here. I just think they're underrated and the Packers are overrated. I mean, I've said my piece about the Packers. I think they're the worst thirteen
to three team ever. And now they're going on the road. They've got to go to San Francisco, where where they just they got walloped in San Francisco earlier in the season. I love the forty nine Ers. I love their coaching. I think this is another game where there's gonna be coaching advantage. I'm not a huge fan of Matt Lafleur, and I think that was part of the reason why they barely squeaked by the Seahawks today. I didn't love the game plan by Matt Lafleur, so in a coaching
matchup between him and Kyle Shanahan as well. I love Kyle Shanahan and that coaching matchup. I just I don't see how the Packers are gonna be able to slow down the forty nine Ers, and then I don't see how the Packers are gonna score points either. So I mean the spreads at seven, I would even take the forty nine Ers close to at like nine, and a half. I would probably still take the forty nine ers. I might even take the forty nine ers if it was ten. So at seven, yes, give me that all day.
Yeah, I'm gonna I don't see this dropping under a touchdown. If it does, I'm pushing all my chips into the middle on the forty nine ers for sure, if you get at six and a half or something like that. But I agree with you, I like it at seven. I think this is finally gonna be the game. I mean, we look, I mean you go back to the game they played against the nine Ers earlier and you were like, oh boy, this is not These two teams are not
in the same class. Nothing has changed at all. And you know with the forty nine ers just being healthy. I mean the one thing people forget. They hadn't had a buy since week four. I mean, they were exhausted, they were banged up, they had that buy. They got healthy. Bosa is a maniac, and he's just you know, they don't have a second receiver the Packers. It's really really difficult to see the Packers winning this game, certainly, but keeping this game close. Man. So I agree with you
at this point. I don't have a real good feel for the total. By the way, at forty five. I mean, you know, the first game was exactly forty five thirty seven eight, So I don't personally have any play on that. But in terms of the spread, yeah, I mean, and I'm not too worried by the way about where this is going. Like you said, it's not going to go to ten or anything like that, so I don't feel the big rush to get in if the public somehow
becomes you know, Packers are a very public team. If the public somehow pushes this to six and a half, then I'd be all over it. So for me, I don't feel all that crazy about going after it. I'll probably put some on it at seven for now, but I don't feel crazy about going that because if it goes to seven and a half, it goes to eight whatever, not the big deal for me. But do you have any feeling on the total whatsoever?
No, I'm with you. I won't be betting on the total at that number because I think, I honestly think, I mean, it sounds like an easy answer, but I honestly think it's gonna be a very similar score to what the regular season game was just because I think there are forty nine Ers offense is just a lot better than the Packers defense and their defense forty nine Ers defense a lot better than the Packers' offense thirty seven to eight in the regular season. I think it's
gonna be similar. I just don't see the Packers. I mean the Packers. I think what they'll have to do on offense is they need to get Aaron Jones going, and they need to get him going early, and they need to get him going in more than just the running game as well. If they can get him in the past involved in the passing game a little bit, then that will take a little bit of the pressure off Davante Adams and not in them not having a
second receiver that they can go too. So I mean, and it's always hard to discount Aaron Rodgers, one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, obviously, but no, I would stay away from the total just because I think it's gonna be I think it's gonna be a similar to what it was last last game. So I think the forty nine Ers are gonna win by I don't think I think forty nine is gonna win by a lot. And I don't think the Packers are gonna score a lot of points, so yeah, I'll stay away from the total.
Yeah, we we view this game very similarly. And again, I really think that if the Saints had managed to beat the Vikings, that the Saints would have come into Lambo and beat them, and you know, pretty you know, I think this was really the best that you know, God, I don't want to say it like this, but it just feels like a like a fraudulent season a little bit for the Packers.
Right.
Again, they're not a thirteen to three team. They wind up drawing another team that's not all that good, you know, the Seahawks, as well as Russell Wilson gets them to play, they wind up getting a very favorable draw there. You know, they're a decent team, they're a solid team. They're a playoff team, but they're not a team that deserved really a BIGE, you know, obviously for the reasons that we discussed. And they're not a team that I feel like is
a super Bowl caliber team. So I grew you go ahead.
Yes, sorry, Well I was just gonna say I will say something about about the Packers positive. There is something to say about just being able to squeak out these just dirty, grimy close games. I mean, they do have a thirteen and three record. There is something you have to say for that. They didn't lose the close games. They they managed to win these dirty, grimy close games. So there is something to say for that. So if they can turn this into a slugfest with the forty
nine ers, maybe Aaron Rodgers can pull it out. Yeah, but yeah, there's something to say for that.
I don't want I don't want to hate mail from Packers that I picked them early on in our preseason episodes to win the division and everything like that. I love Aaron Rodgers. He's one of my favorite players of all time. They're a very very solid team. But I really do think that there's a class difference right now
with the forty nine Ers and the Packers. So I do see this line creeping up sort of sounds like you do, and I'm not afraid to go after it because I don't think if they beat the forty nine ers, kudos to them, and I you know, I'll eat crow because you know, I really really it's it's very difficul well to see it happening. I could much to me I could so much easier to see the Titans beating the Chiefs than I could the Packers beating the forty nine ers A a way. I see right. Yeah, so
that's how I say, Well, it should be fun. But that is it for today's show. Thanks a lot for joining me, Ian, especially on a Sunday night with very little time to think about the games. Did a great job. Remind everybody where they can find more of you in your work.
Yeah. Absolutely. The main area where you can find me is on Twitter at Ian mac Os, I A I N m ac Os. Also, obviously I worked for odd Shark. We also have a Monday to Friday live stream on YouTube, so just search odd Shark on YouTube. It's called Guys and Bets. I'm on that from Monday to Thursday as well, so check that out.
Awesome, thanks again for coming on. I want to remind everyone about bet MGM, where you can get a risk free five hundred dollars bet if you sign up for the bet MGM Sports app using our promo code Harris, and don't forget to leave this review on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher. Send a screenshot of that review to contest at Betting Pros doc to be entered into our Michael Thomas signed helmet giveaway. We'll be back on Thursday getting into some of our best bets for the Championship round.
I'll talk to you that