It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros. Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's me joeyp Joe Pizipia. And today officially kicks off what our NFL coverage. I know you've all been waiting for it. We've had so much going on, Baseball, Olympics, so many things, But it's
a football season, that's right. Training camp is here and from now on, I promise you we're gonna have a whole lot more football talk the next month or so, all leading up into the season, and of course in season, we're gonna take you through everything you need to know all week long in terms of the lines, where they're moving, and where you want to place your bets. And of course today we want to kick things off with our
AFC preview. We're gonna talk to you about the win totals, the props, the division and also those conferences as well. Who we think might come out of that AFC And of course those division winners are really important too. There might be a few divisions that are really more up for grabs than we might think. And of course there's nobody better to talk about all this with the one of my favorite people. She is a rising star or
maybe already a star on the Sports Grid network. You see her every single morning for three full hours, and you know what, that's not enough. On the morning after you can catch on MSG as well, and of course she's known to most as the prop Queen, but she's everywhere rocking and rolling from the FanDuel Sports with five days a week. Ariol Epstein, it is so nice to see your face and have you on the show today to talk a little AFC preview with you. How are you this fine afternoon, Joe piece Apia.
I am so excited to be here today. Also, I had no idea when you invited me on that this was going to be kicking off your NFL coverage. No pressure. At least I don't have to go up against anyone else's opinions yet, so that's good. I get to start it off.
Maybe a little of mine, but who cares. A good difference of opinion makes for good radio, for a good podcast, for good TV. Steel sharpened steel areals. That's what it's all about. It's about all of us getting some good information and then letting everybody else go out there and fish or whatever. The hell that used to be about. So today, like I said, it's AFC time, so we're gonna chat about that. And I know you are a
Ravens fan, I'm a Patriots fan. Somehow, we will try our best to coexist for the next half hours, So make it all work. There have been some great battles over the last few years or so for our teams. But I want to start with the AFC East. And obviously the Bills, who last year had quite a run, came real close to the Super Bowl, fell a little short. Josh Allen had a great season. They clearly are leading things off here at minus one fifty five, and that
is of course our betting consensus pros number. And for all the betting consensus pros numbers, you go to bettingpros dot com and you could see where all the different sports books are pushing you towards where the lines are, where the values are as well. No surprise to see the Bills at the top, then the Dolphins at plus three hundred, of course, my Patriots at plus three fifty, and then the Jets, the lowly Jets at plus twenty five hundred. So let's leave the Jets out of the equation.
They're so adorable, aren't they? The Jets trying to get another quarterback?
They try?
Don't you love it? Areo when they try to get another quarterback every couple of years, And that's gonna be the one.
Right, It's gonna be the line, especially, you know when their passing yards drop is what thirty four hundred yards or something like that. This year it's a mess. But I do love their new head coach ravererts a lot. I think that's Salad's gonna do a great job there. It's just not going to be this year.
I agree one thousand percent. I'm a huge fan of him. Hopefully he give me a guy to finally gets.
That's why you like him, right.
Well, I'm not gonna lie. That's a big part of it. He's definitely handsome, obviously you could tell from that. So let's talk about does anybody have a shot here in this division besides Buffalo? Because the Dolphins did draft Jalen Waddell, they did bring in Will Fuller. Last year was a very difficult circumstance for Tua to really kind of develop. The locker room was kind of against him, the injury was against him. No preseason all that was against him.
Do the Dolphins have a chance here at plus three hundred, or do the Patriots with all those players coming back from COVID have a shot here? Or is it just a foregone conclusion that the East belongs to Buffalo.
It is a foregone conclusion that the East belongs to Buffalo. You're asking someone that has been constantly saying the next curse to be broken is the Buffalo Bill's Super Bowl curse. We have broken so many curses in sports in the last few years, the Cubs, the Red Sox, the Capitals. It is time for the Buffalo Bills to break the curse. They just signed their quarterback Josh Allen to a huge extension through twenty twenty seven. All the Bills have to
do is improve their defense. Two years ago, the Bill's defense was top ten in the league. Last year, they weren't in that category, but their offense was top ten in the league. If they can combine the two two years ago and last year, the Bills are a Super Bowl contender. Their head coach, Sean McDermott is a defensive minded coach.
He was the defensive.
Coordinator in Carolina. If there's anyone they can get the job done in improving this defense. It's the defensive mind of Sean McDermott. The problem with the other teams in this division is there's too much uncertainty. Tuatunguovailoa from Miami last year, he was a turnover prone quarterback. He was still a little bit shaky on his feet, and even though they added to the receiver position, I'm still not convinced that this Miami team is good enough to get
through the division. Your Patriots are a team that's tough for me to bet on because I don't know what's going to happen at quarterback. How long is Cam Newton really going to stay under center, or are they going to try to make the switch to Mac Jones midway through the year. I don't want to bet on a team that may be making a mid switch, a midyear
switch at quarterback. Even though Justin Herbert was the Rookie of the Year last year for the Chargers and had an amazing rookie season, he has all these veterans around him, and it still wasn't enough to get the Chargers to the playoffs. When they have a team like the Kansas City Chiefs sitting at the top of their division. That's how I feel about the Patriots and the Dolphins. Just
not enough experience. When you have this Bills team that's now built playoff experience for the last two years, all they really have to do.
Is zone in on that efense.
Well, I absolutely agree with you. It's Buffaloes to lose, and I can't see putting money on the Dolphins or the Pats. Like you said, uncertainty is the biggest thing. Now. Look, these teams might end up in the playoffs, but winning that division, eh. And I do think that secondary can get back to where it was a couple of years ago for Buffalo. They were a fantastic group. They also hit hard, which is nice. You don't see a lot of secondaries that still hit people the way they do.
A little bit of intimidation factors good. They need a little bit better play up front.
It's a little bit harder too, when you're in Buffalo in December. The hit is just a little bit harder, a little bit more.
But that's also what hurts them On the offensive side. They don't run the football very well outside of Josh Allen. That's the problem when you get to December. In January, you don't have a running game in Buffalo. It does kind of come around to bite. You just go back and look out close at Indianapolis, Colt's playoff game ended up becoming at the end because you can't run out clock. That's an issue. You want to make sure you take
advantage of that weather. Now, I want to take advantage of this division that we're gonna talk about next, because this is the AFC North, and I know this is very personal to you, but this is all business here on the show. This is what we do at betting. The Ravens are at the top somehow betting consensus plus one twenty the Cleveland Browns, that's right, the Cleveland Browns plus one forty five, the Steelers at plus four to twenty five, and the Bengals all the way at twenty
to one. Bengals still work in progress. Will leave them alone. Hopefully Joe Burrow gets his knee right and his confidence back, and they'll just fun to watch from a fantasy perspective. But all of a sudden, it's a little different dynamic that we're starting to see. All of a sudden, the Cleveland Browns, the depth of the Browns, the defense of the Browns, the running game of the Browns. All that
looks really good. So are you confident that the Ravens can take a step forward offensively and start to throw the ball a little bit more, become a little bit more of a diverse offense or do you think maybe, just maybe, the Browns have a real shot at this thing. I know that's a loaded question, but I ask it anyway.
The Browns on paper should have a shot at this thing. The problem is that they're the Browns. Even though last year they still had a good season. I'm concerned about what's going to happen with the mental cases on this team. You have Odell Beckham Junior and Jarvis Landry granted Odell's back from tearing his ACL Baker Mayfield another head case, and then you have the defensive side to Davion Clowney
who can't stay healthy. And you have Miles Garrett, who, Okay, he's one of the best defensive players in the NFL. I'm still concerned. I love this Browns team on paper, I just can't put money on them. There's too much, again, uncertainty when it comes to consistency and the Browns. To me, I just can't rely on They just can't win the big game. They can't get past the Ravens, and they can't get past the Steelers. To be honest, they always keep it close. Can they take the next can they
take the next step? AFC North is really tough to handicap, because you're right, the Ravens are a team that even though they've added young wide receivers, they added Sammy Watkins, another player that can't stay on the field for more than half a season. I wish the bout half a quarter, half a corner right. Tammy Watkins is so tough to
watch play. And then today, the day that we're recording this, Rashad Bateman, their rookie wide receiver out of Minnesota, is limping off the field after going up for a ball at practice. If the Ravens can't stay healthy him, mean this thing is over. But apparently Mark Andrews and Lamar still have a good dynamic, which I'm not surprised by.
The problem is last year, it's hard to judge because the Ravens didn't really have camp, they didn't have much of a summer, and that was really the year that they needed Lamar Jackson to excel in the passing game. The good thing the Ravens can't get worse at the path or the worst pass offense in the NFL last year. It really can't get worse. They can only go up.
The Ravens can improve this passing game if Bateman stays healthy on the field, if Sammy Watkins can play a few games, and if Hollywood Brown can somehow get better, and we showed we saw glimpses of it last year towards the end of the season. I'm just hoping that Bateman can challenge Hollywood. On the other side, I'm not betting anything in this division, and I know that that's hard to say because I'm here on a show trying
to give out picks. But the one thing I would do is it actually like the Steelers over eight and a half wins, I would go more win total in the AFC North than I would for betting any of these teams to win the division because this division's always close. This division, you will usually have three out of the
four teams and make it into the playoffs. If not two out of the four teams make it into the playoffs, it's I think last year was the second time in the last decade where the AFC North had two had three teams go to the playoffs out of it. Now, the Pittsburgh Steelers is a tough one because Ben Roethlisberger, you have to wonder about his arm and his age. But he looks good, he cuts down, he slimmed out.
I can't see Ben Roethlisberger and Mike Tomlin together in Pittsburgh having a below eight hundred excuse me, a below five hundred season. So I would say over eight and a half wins for the Steelers would be the way I would play this division.
I agree with that on the win total too. I also think this Steelers are fascinating at the four to twenty five because that's where you make your money, you know, if all of a sudden these injuries do pile up. I saw that Baban news like you did, right before he came on, and I'm very high on Bateman and Fantasy this year, and that kind of certainly throws a little wrinkle in all of my hopeful projected plans for
that passing game. The Browns, You're right, are a bit of an enigma, and the Browns will brown from time to time the Steelers, you know, with naj Harris coming back in. That's the problem is they again couldn't run the football, right, they become a one dimensional offense.
What happens they Yeah, they can't get worse at the run game, and the Ravens can't get worse at the pass game.
Yeah, maybe they could just combine all the rosters together and then they'll have a really good chance at maybe maybe beating the Chiefs. Maybe maybe Well we'll get to the Chiefs in a second. I want to talk to you about this next division because in the South, the Titans are the clear favorites at minus one thirty four, and I think they should be right now, especially with what's going on right now with Carson Wentz. We're not exactly sure when he's gonna come back, how that's gonna
work anyway, even if he was healthy. Still, like I said, questions and like you were mentioning before, it seems like the Titans are just gonna run away. I'm actually surprised that the numbers just minus one thirty four. I thought this would be even greater. You got the Colts a plus one to eighty, then the Jaguars with Trevor Lawrence and obviously that new regime with Evermyer coming in at plus six hundred plus twenty eight hundred for the Texans.
Let's not even talk about the Texans. Okay, they do not deserve our attention. I don't care if Deshaun Watson plays, doesn't play, I don't care. As a terrible roster. So really it's about the Titans number at minus one thirty four. To me, if you like the Titans, you gotta get it on now, because I don't see this number as you start to see them in preseason getting any better. I think this is going to go into that minus two hundred range potentially, because I just think the rest
of this division is just clearly a step behind. Cults are a good defensive team, but do you think that the Colts have any shot here if Carson Wentz does come back sooner on that timeline to compete for this division at all?
I do think the Colts have a chance to compete.
The thing is, I wouldn't be betting the Colts right now because you're still getting them, as you mentioned, at a pretty decent price and like it's short odds kind of price, whereas the Titans minus one thirty four. It's probably the best you're going to get them for now. If you get no Carson Wentz for the first let's say five weeks, like it says, of the season Carson Wentz being or excuse me, five to twelve weeks is the label. So let's just say he's out the first
three games of the year. Four games of the year. Carson Wentz's the Colts odds are gonna go much longer if they lose two out of four games. You're gonna want to wait for that better number on the Colts. If you're gonna get them to lose the first few games of the year. Now, I have to go look back at their schedule and see how the end of the season looks. But I'm pretty sure that the end of the season for the Colts isn't as bad as
the beginning. The Colts are gonna lose early games anyway, because from what I remember, they have to play really tough. I'm pretty sure they get the Rams early on. I don't know if you have the schedules pulled up, but I probably should. I was looking at these schedules for the Colts and I thought, wow, like this is a really tough start to the year for them.
I'm gonna bring it up.
Well, the start of the season begins with, yeah, the the Rams, the Titans, and then that Dolphins defense and the Ravens.
De right, but you look at so now I haven't pulled up too So you start off with a really tough for five weeks. So at some point you're gonna get a better number on the Colts that that's in that span. But look, the last five weeks of the year for the Colts, You've got Houston, New England, Arizona, Vegas, and Jacksonville. If you have your team healthy at that point, and yes, maybe you could be in a hole, but you are playing in the AFC South, which is one of the worst divisions in football.
The Tennessee Titans.
You have four games against two teams that should finish below five hundred. You've got Houston that you have to go up against, and Jacksonville. You could go and get four wins like that in that division. So now you're really just focusing. Yes, you have Tampa Bay tough, Buffalo tough. There are really tough games on this schedule that Tennessee also has to play against. That's why I could see at the end of the year the Colts could make
a run. You're just gonna get better. You're gonna get a better number with better value on Indianapolis if you wait for about week three or four.
This is why I have you on the show, so you could say smart things like that to make everybody better better, which is a weird thing to say now that I realized I just said a better better. All right, let's move on to the West. Is it really anything to say the Chiefs minus three thirty five. I mean, you can't bet it, so forget it. There's nobody else. I'm sorry, the Chargers, the Broncos, Raiders, forget it. So I'm not gonna waste anybody's time.
But I have to point something out to you. And this is more going AFC broad picture. And I don't think that this team's going to I don't think this team is gonna win the AFC.
That would just be crazy.
The Vegas Raiders have been one of the sharpest teams that I've been hearing about. Even though I wouldn't bet them to win the division. I would look to the Raiders' win total. There are a lot of really smart cappers who I've heard betting on the Vegas Raiders over for
their wins. And when I looked in the Futures Market Show, it was so it was so weird because we do this segment called Market Movers on the morning after, we look at how the markets moved from a time I snapshoted it months prior to what the odds are now. When I was snapshotting the AFC odds back to about a month ago, I think it was like mid July. I snapshoted these odds of the AFC picture. The odds were forty one to one for the Vegas Raiders to
win the AFC. Those odds moved to thirty seven to one. No one had odds move in their favor that significantly to win the AFC more than the Vegas Raiders did. I mean, other teams had the line move in their favor, but not that much forty one to one to thirty seven to one. Even though again I don't think the Vegas Raiders are going to win the conference, I do see there being some value on Vegas to the over on their win total.
Yeah, I would agree with that as well. And I'll tell you what I false. I also think it's going to be a huge home field advantage of people don't realize yet that building. When you see it and you kind of see and feel what Las Vegas could be and how excited they would be, you didn't get to see it last year, so at full capacity, if you do get to that this season, which it seems like we're going to be going towards that at least hopefully
for now, Fingers crossed. That home field advantage for the Raiders is what turns that win total, because if they become a very good team at home, just like that new building in Minnesota a couple years ago, and it was so loud, Right, what happened last year? All of a sudden that defense collapsed? Gee, I wonder what. Maybe it's because I was on that volume went out of the building and maybe they weren't as good as we
thought they were. So I think that home field advantage could be a really huge one for Las Vegas that we haven't seen yet.
All right, week one, though hopefully.
After week well, of course, of course, I want to get your team out of there unscathed. AFC champion. Let's take a look at some of the favorites and the long shots. Now the favorites are clearly the Chiefs at plus two fifty. Then you've got the Bills at plus five fifty, the Ravens at plus six fifty, and the Browns, yes,
their favorites still plus seven to fifty. I'm gonna say it anyway, any other money you want to put anywhere but the Chiefs on some of these other favorites, because I personally think the Bills have a really good shot here. I like the plus five to fifty on them.
I love the Buffalo Bills. Told you, I'm I.
We both look at us coming together on the Bills.
I love the Bills.
I'm right there with you at the Bills to have the most value at plus five to fifty.
To win the AFC.
I even love the Bills to win the Super Bowl at ten to one. I loved this last year. I even said last year when I was giving out my win totals, it was until this year where the book's finally caught up to us. Buffalo has been so underbooked for the last three years that I can't last year. I remember this specifically because I did this whole like COVID video thing where I was given out win totals in COVID.
I was so bored. I was editing.
All these random videos and I remember specifically because the Buffalo Bill's win total last year was I.
Want to say nine, not like around that range. Then I said in the.
Video, Okay, the Bills hit their first of all went over that year prior anyway, But the Bills hit their win total of I'm pretty sure it was like six and a half, seven and a half two years ago by Thanksgiving. And I remember saying that because when I did that research, I couldn't believe that the Bills hit their win total two years ago by Thanksgiving and they went over that nine win so easily. Let two years ago that I couldn't believe last year's win total was
still just the nine and a half. I bet the over and it ended up hitting. This year, they caught up to us, and they're one of the best teams in the AFC. Rightfully, so I still believe that the Kansas City Chiefs, Now, you're gonna tell me they're gonna go three straight Super Bowls. I mean that's a lot. This is wide open in the AFC. Someone's coming out of it. I know it's not going to be the Chiefs. I'm just willing to say that the Chiefs are not
making the Super Bowl for a third straight year. This is the same team.
It's very difficult to teach.
Much except the offensive line. It's the same team that we've seen when it comes to skills players for the last few years. I'm gonna say someone else is coming out of this division. It's just a matter of which defense out of the AFC is.
Going to be the best.
Well, I think you also got some clarity last year because I think you saw the deficits of the Bills and I think they realized what they needed to work on. But you also saw a team like Cleveland go hey, we can hang with this team. I think that builds confidence. Even though they lost. I feel like you kind of come away going, well, maybe we're better than we realized
and we're actually should be. In this conversation, look if Lamar Jackson plays up like a said, to his abilities and also people forget it, he was a good pocket passer in college. The offensive lines that really built for pass protection is built for running. So that's gonna be a fascinating evolution. But like you said, and we were
talking about before. It's about the health. If the health of the wide receiving corep isn't there, then we're right back to where we used to be, which is predictable. I think that build A plus five fifty is where I want to go. But you know what, that's no fun. Those are favorites. Let's talk about the long shots. Let's go with the Titans plus thirteen hundred, the Patriots plus fifteen. The Dolphins are at plus fifteen, the Chargers at plus sixteen.
It's all about the Titans. For me, I'm drinking the kool aid. It's music City. I'm here for it. I love what they did. Add in Julio Jones. I don't think people realize how devastating that combination of those two wide receivers going to be. Bud Dupree is an incredible pass rusher. Also, they're not giving enough credit to that move.
I understand there's still deficits on the defensive side, but can I sell you on Ryan Tannehill, Mike Rabel, Derrick Henry and this group of wide receivers of Age Brown and Julio Jones being this team maybe that people don't realize is going to come through and just whoop on everybody, get hot at the right time and go all the way to the super Bowl.
You can sell me on it.
This team has proven they can get there. Coaching is everything. That's what scares me a bit with the Browns too, because they won a playoff game without a head coach and then they ended up having their head coach and loseig.
I mean, like, what's the problem here.
So for me to see that Tennessee has their head coach, mec Brabel, who was able to out coach Bill Belichick in a playoff game, It's that alone is impressive. But then you look at this team who defensively they were able to play up two years ago and that's what got them to where they did an the AFC Championship game. And then for the new wide receivers coming in where you have one of the best wide receivers coming over from Atlanta and Julio Jones and you have him alongside
some top notch receivers. Oh, and you're running back Derrick Henry and then you have that guy, Yeah, that guy. And Ryan Tannehill has proven himself to be a to be a reliable quarterback and his completion percentage in the playoffs has been fine. He hasn't done anything to throw. He hasn't done anything to make me believe that he's
not the quarterback that can get them there. I do believe out of all these teams that you were listing, that the Tennessee Titans are that long shot at thirteen to one to win the AFC because they have the opportunity to be the most well rounded team. The real question is special teams. Did they improve special teams from last year? Because last year, watching Goskowski and watching this team continue to blow games because they can't get special
teams right, that's gonna be the difference. This Tennessee team last year could have had three more wins at least if they were able to make field goals.
Now, the special teams were absolutely atrocious for that team. And you're right, it all is all about coaching. That's at the end of the day, gonna have all the talent on a roster you want in the NFL. If you don't have the coaching, you don't have the schemes, you don't have the game plan, the adjustment, you're not going to be the team. Belichick. Andy Reid, Right, Andy Reid is a coach who historically doesn't make good adjustments. Bill Belichick is the king of adjustments. That's why he
ends up winning games so often. And I think when you look at the other coaches, the great coaches in the last twenty thirty years, those are the guys that are able to go in there and say, Okay, this was our game plan, it's not working. Let's do this instead. Because they came out with that, and it's that second half adjustment. I think variable is a tremendous coach. I think you're right, and that's why I love this number.
So for me, you get a little bit of the Bills, maybe with a smaller you know, with a bigger wager, a little bit you're holding hands together running through the meadow on the AFC. Let's go Bills and Titans is gonna beautiful. I'm all about this, And I'm glad because I was very excited to talk about the Titans today and I'm glad that somebody else besides me is excited
about them. And like I said, drinking the kool aid, let's get to some of the win totals that you mentioned before, because obviously there's some really good ones out there. Let's start with the Ravens. The number is eleven plus one hundred on the over, minus one twenty on the under. You want to go over under on this eleven or stay away from the Ravens? Eleven?
Why do you do this to me?
Because I'm fun, because I'm well? Then you could say pass. You could say pass. Honestly, eleven sounds like a good number, and that can pay vision numbers. I wouldn't bet it. I would walk away from it. Sometimes the best advice is don't bet. You know that.
No, I know, I don't.
I don't bet my own team. I'm just one of those people. I won't even throw a dollar.
I bet against my own team.
It's called hedge.
That's what I do. Exact. Oh, hiding your happiness. I've never heard anyone cool.
That's what I call it. I love that happiness.
Can I do that in life? Can I huge my happiness?
Of course?
So here's the thing, Like, I do this all the time. And actually it was my favorite thing to do two years ago at the Ravens. Didn't work out as much last year. Two years ago my favorite thing to do because the Ravens were always the team that scored first. They were the best first quarter team in football two years ago. I would go wait for the live opportunity for the Ravens to score in the first quarter, and then I would take the points with the other team, not asking for the Ravens to lose.
I was just saying that they're not going to cover this double digit spread.
Usually the Ravens are favored by six seven points, so I would end up waiting for it to hit about ten because the Ravens scored early in the first quarter, and take the points with the opposite team. Ravens hopefully win, but the opposite team ends up covering, and I end up hedging my happiness.
I love it. Let's head your happiness with the Buffalo Bills. Eleven over under is the number plus one hundred on the over minus one twenty on the under. I'm going over on this. Your thoughts, that's my lean right now.
Yeah, I'm going over because how do I not go over when I say that this team's going to win the AFC.
I also wouldn't be surprises.
Money, Ariel. Don't forget about the plus money side on the over too, which I'm actually kind of surprised about.
Oh, I do like the plus money on that over. I'm looking at their schedule.
Now Buffalo, they have to face the NFC East, which is great, that's awesome.
But I mean they face Washington, so that's good.
They have to face let's see, they get the Jets, which is great because you know you had Jets twice. You get your jack you get the Jack Wars this year, the Patriots, the Saints that aren't that daunting.
So they're facing the NFC South.
So yeah, I mean, I actually could see this being an over because I'm looking at these games. Pittsburgh they should win at home. Kansas City is a tough game Week five, that's in Kansas City. They'll probably lose that game, but if they win that game, that's huge.
Then they have money.
They actually have two really tough games back to back Kansas City Tennessee, but then they have a bye to look forward to, which is really helpful because they could say we'll make it through these two games, we go to the bye, and.
Then everything after that's really easy.
Aside for Tampa Bay, I say that loosely because it's the NFL, but realistically, you look at the next half of their schedule. In the second half off the bye. It's really an easy schedule for Buffalo. I would take the over on their win total for sure.
And we have to adjust our brains too, because it's a seventeen game season now. And that's the thing. I think people see these old numbers and they're still It's not that they forget it, but they're not really equating it properly, whether it comes to the totals for the players or whether it comes for the win tis to say, well, it's only one more game, but you know it makes a difference. Eleven's kind of low in a seventeen game season, actually for a team that we have expectations for, like
we do the Buffalo Bills. All right, let's go with the Cleveland Browns. Here. Ten and a half is the number for them. The over is minus one oh five, the unders one to fifteen. This one's tricky, all the volatility, all the characters, if you will, in Cleveland. Can they all put it together and get to that eleven mark, because that's what they'd have to do to go over. Where your thoughts on this number for Cleveland.
I just automatically, without looking at the schedule, want to fade Cleveland because everyone is always public on Cleveland.
The public always wants to back this team.
This is a division in the AFC Nord that has one of the toughest division schedules in football. The Steelers actually have the hardest schedule in football this year, and I'm pretty sure the Ravens are second toughest, which means the Browns have to be up there too because they're going to play the same opposite conference.
There are same divisions.
Now, they have a game against the Chiefs right off the bat in Arrowhead, which again a bunch of head cases on this Browns team. You'll lose that game in Arrowhead and you're going to be oh no 'or Onhing one. How does this team bounce back? But then they have some pretty easy games. They have Houston Chicago, but defensively Chicago could be tough. Minnesota maybe they're better. But the first half's not that bad for Cleveland. It's gonna be
down the stretch. Cleveland schedule is not that bad. Honestly, then I'm looking at it.
Well they I mean, it's a very tough division. This is the this is the hyper competitive division in the AFC. You know what, if you handle your business against the Pittsburgh or not. You handle your business against Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, then I think this is an over. If you struggle against Pittsburgh, I think this is gonna be.
Here's why I think it's an under because I think that the book is being I think the book's undervaluing Pittsburgh. I still see a lot of value on Pittsburgh. The run game can't get worse. The only real issue in Pittsburgh is who's stepping up in defense, because, as you mentioned earlier, they lost some of their key linebackers. If the Steelers defense can be what it normally is a top ten unit, it's supposed to have the second best front seven in football this year according to Warren Sharp.
If that's the case, Pittsburgh is gonna have over eight and a half wins, which means, my guess, based on how the book is handling this, giving the Browns two more wins than the Steelers, at least one of those games is getting split. I mean one of those games going to Pittsburgh. At least, I'm gonna say under for
the Browns win total. Even though the schedule isn't that daunting now that I look at it, it's still a tough division, and I'm very curious to see how this offense does against some top notch defenses, like if Minnesota or Chicago are improved.
All right, let's have some fun here. How about the Texans. The numbers four. Again, it's a seventeen game season, so the four sounds I know, what's minus one forty on the over, plus one twenty on the under. See, to me, this is all about if Deshaun Watson plays or now Shaw Watson plays. Obviously it's no but if you believe that somehow that's just not gonna happen, you hammer this
under because they are just atrocious. This is possibly the worst roster in football that I've seen in quite some time. And again taking off the frank quarterback from it does not make it better. So anything here for you with the four number.
I would go under for Houston's four and a half because they were four and twelve last year with Deshaun Watson at quarterback.
Now you're gonna have a Taradre Taylor.
It's we've seen for the last two years that the worst team in football has had one win. I mean Cincinnati, Jacksonville. I could see the Houston Texans being that team, And honestly, why not if Watson's not going to be there, which by the way, he's not traveling to the preseason game. If Watson's not going to be in Houston and they're going to try to trade him, then go for a
number one quarterback. Go for your next franchise quarterback. Let your team stink this year and find someone out of the college ranks who you can go and draft with the first overall pick.
Last one here, let's see the Dolphins. Nine and a half is the number. The over is plus one fifteen, the unders minus one thirty five. This is really about the development of Tua. Can he get to that next level? And like we said before, we were talking about everything that could possibly be against him last year was so this is a full regular, healthy offseason, a full regular preseason for him. Can they get to this level? Because that was a very competitive team. The Dolphins were very
competitive in all of their games. They were a team that really showed up to play defensively as well. The offensive line still in question, but they did add some more talent in the wide receiver corps. Is that enough here to help kind of pull two along in year two? In the NFL and maybe pull them over nine and a half or is this an easy under.
I wouldn't say it's an easy under.
I could see this one going over because the nine and a half is still below where this team was last year. Last year was a ten win team and that was only sixteen game season, and now we're going to go to seventeen. You still again have to factor in that extra game. I could see that extra game helping Miami get over the nine and a half wins. The problem is that they are going up against certain teams like the Giants, who I could see being a better defense than people are giving them credit for. It
was a top ten defense last year. Carolina also could be improved. They were a young defense last season, but still improved. And Sam Darnold maybe and he knows Miami. So looking at who these who they have to play. Of course, Buffalo is gonna be their toughest competition and they have them week two. Uh, Jacksonville they get to play this year, Houston they play, so they're playing the South and then New Orleans.
Isn't that daunting? I mean, not too many.
I could see this team two games against the Jets. Obviously, You've got two games against Buffalo, which will be tough, and then two games against New England, which I could see them splitting. I would say I lean over just because I'm not one hundred percent sure that Miami's gonna get worse than last year. Now, you do have to factor in Ryan Fitzpatrick and how he had some fitzmagic.
Last season in Miami. The Beard.
I know it is all about Tua, but he does have his wide receiver in Jalen Waddell that he's gonna be able to play with.
So Miami over nine and a half.
Wins, well, boy, you can't shake the confidence of that call. Boy. Oh boy, whatence the thing?
You didn't ask me about my favorite win total of the season?
What is your favorite?
See? Yeah, see under for the Jaguars under six and a half wins. You're telling me that a team that had one win last year, all of a sudden's going to have a rookie quarterback, a rookie running back, and essentially a rookie head coach in the NFL and Urban Meyer that they're just going to come into the NFL and do six times better than they did last year. No, we saw it with Cincinnati. They had a new head coach, they had a new quarterback, first pick in the draft.
They still only had four wins last year. I'm not buying that you're gonna get six more wins because you have all those factors at play, there's still growing pains. I will always tell this story, Joe, when I was
covering local news. My favorite thing about covering local news is that on a football weekend, I was able to go from high school football on Friday and I was shooting the games, like with a k camera on the field by myself, shooting the games Friday from the field, shooting the game Saturday for college football, and shooting a game Sunday for the Carolina Panthers. Seeing the speed Friday to Saturday, I mean, and I was in North Carolina,
so these high school kids are like legit. And when I would watch these Friday to Saturdays, they said, Okay, there's a difference, but it wasn't anything that I wasn't prepared for.
But then Saturday to Sunday was so ridiculously.
And everyone should get to be on a sideline once so they could see just.
What it's like because and compare it like go to each sideline be able to compare it day by day and see And I had Cam Newton at quarterback for Carolina Panthers at the time, so being able to see what Cam Newton was doing from a field level. And you're trying to shoot it because when you're shooting the games, you're trying to be like a linebacker. You're trying to figure out what the quarterback is going to do. Is he gonna pass, is he gonna throw? I mean, is he gonna pass?
Is he gonna run? And with Cam you just really don't know.
I mean, the head coach doesn't even know what he's gonna do because the play call is probably to throw and he's going to try to dive headfirst into the end zone.
So you just don't know. On these players are so fast.
That's why when I talk about these these transition years, the quarterback trying to transition into the NFL. It was so impressive what Justin Herbert was able to do last year because he came in on a whim, but coaching a new head coach and a new quarterback for the Jacksonville Jaguars, I'm not gonna get I'm not gonna bet a over on this team to have seven wins. I'm gonna say they're gonna wonder six and a half.
I'm with you. Let's turn the keys once again. You and I pretty much see the AFC the same. Maybe I like the Browns a little bit more than you, but I like a hot mess sometimes sometimes it's fun.
I do think on paper they're really good.
There's just such a roster. You should be nervous because they are a bunch of knuckleheads. But at the same time, it's a deep bunch of knuckleheads in terms of roster, and that's the one thing in the NFL you're gonna have injuries, especially on the defensive side. You're looking at some of these guys too. The depth of that roster so good that next man up is actually a pretty good man to put in there. All right, two minutes, real, leies,
you're ready, We're gonna do some props. Patrick Maholmes passing yards over under five thousand point five, seventeen games under. I agree. I'm with you. Under for me as well. Lamar Jackson passing yards thirty four hundred point five over under.
Ooh, probably under.
Yeah, Maybe I'm just depressed about Rashan Pateman today. But I'm gonna say under. AJ Brown receiving yards twelve hundred point five over under.
Oh, under, because he has Julia next to him.
Now over over, it's gonna be a lot. Oh, I love it. Let's go. AJ Brown's gonna be a top three wide receiver. Julio Jones one twenty five and a half over under.
Oh, that seems pretty low, it does. We're gonna have two one thousand yard receivers.
Why no, we had one two years.
Maybe he didn't want to play last year over.
Who could blame him? Derrick Henry rushing yards after two thousand yard season the number is fifteen to thirty nine and a half on betting pros.
Well, there are a lot more receivers for them to pass to.
Its sustainable. All right, we're going over.
Yeah, let's go. It's over. Derek Henry and of course my favorite guy, Naji Harris one thousand point five over under for Naji Harris.
Mmmm, rookie season.
Over.
They're gonna keep.
Big Ben healthy over absolutely, I'm with you. There we go. Lots of agreements, a few disagreements, but more importantly, great information. And that's why of course, I asked you to come on the show, and you should all be following her on the Twitter machine because Aero Epstein is absolutely beast there. Aerial epstcene is where you can find her on the Twitter machine. She is the prop queen for a reason.
Go check her out every single morning on sportscrid dot com and everywhere you can watch sports Grid all over your television. She does fantastic work. She does every single sport. I'm jealous. I can't possibly do that. My head would explode. Ariel, what else you got going on? Because I know you're a busy lady, just a.
Lot on the morning after three hours a day, nine am to now in the Eastern time, Monday through Friday, and this weekend, our Pro Football Today is going to start up on sports Grid, which is ten am east're in to one pm usually when it starts football season. It will be leading up to kickoff, which is great because we bring on so many great analysts and people that will help us, like doctor David chowprofootball dot dot com.
I absolutely love talking to him on game day because he helps me more so with props than anything else. Because think about it, whatever teams who cares about spreads and meals.
And money lines.
We're all about the props and fantasy. And that's what Doctor Chow is so good at. He helps us to tell, Hey, this player is at one hundred percent and this player is not, and that's great.
And once again, I'll be the opening act every year like I am from eight to ten for Area.
I've heard it. I mean it's nacked.
Oh it's an act. Oh, it's an act alright. So they let me kind of warm up the crowd and then Ariel's the main show pro Football today starting get ten. That's when the real experts come in there. So again, go follow her on Twitter at Aera epscene and go check her out everywhere you can. That'll do it for us. But the story of the game goes on. For AERA epscene, I'm Joe Pizapia. We'll see your next AIP kids,