Hey there, everybody. Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Ady. Earlier this week we broke down some of the over unders for the AFC. Today, we're going to tackle the NFC with me to do that. As Ian McMillan a writer over at oddshark dot com. You can follow him on Twitter at Ian mac os that's I a I n mac os Ian. How are you holding up with no live sports? If you found anything to quench your gambling thirst?
Yeah, I've been bet betting on Madden simulations, to be completely honest. Yeah, I mean they're a complete coin toss, but at least gives me something if I close my eyes. It kind of sounds like it's actual NFL so.
Sportscasters, but the sportscasters are really good. I feel like I'm Madden at least on on Madden twenty. Like, you know, I'm not a huge gamer or anything, but they're really sound realists. Like the commentary is actually kind of decent. Yeah, if you close your eyes, you might think you're in a real sporting event.
Yeah, exactly, So that's what's getting me through the days nowas and.
If I remember you, like you were sort of the master of everything, right, so this must be crazy for you. You've never been well you you could write if I remember reading some of your stuff, like, I mean, you weren't limited to baseball and football. You ran the gamut right in terms of what you covered over there.
Yeah, I did a little bit of everything. So it's uh, yeah, tough time for me, man. Yeah, I mean golf hopefully sounds like it's going to come back and about two months, so that's some light at the end of the tunnel, I guess.
Yeah. And again, you know, the powers that be are at least sort of. It seems like everybody understands that sports are important, you know, in the grand scheme of things. Of course, not given what everybody's dealing with, but overall, it's just important for the psyche of the country, right, I mean, we you know that this would we'd all be able to deal with this a little better if there was you know, I have baseball on right now, especially when football comes back.
Yeah, I mean that's what sports are. They're an escape for everyone, and now more than ever, we kind of need an escape from things. So yeah, yeah, hopefully they come back.
So well, the NFL continues to roll around, roll along as we're getting right to the draft, So let's jump into some NFC over unders here. As usual, we're going to be using the consensus odds over at bettingpros dot com. That's the aggregate of the odds that are available at the various sportsbooks where you can place the bet and you can find those over at bettingpros dot com slash NFL dash wins. And if you're interested in the draft, I just said it's coming up, you can go to
betting pros dot com slash Draft dash Props. You can get consensus odds on pretty much any possible prop bet that you can place on the draft coming up next week, and we will be doing an episode next week on those draft props, but in the meantime you want to check them out, you can go over there bettingpros dot com slash Draft hyphen Props. All right, Ian, let's get started with the NFC East here. This is a division that's kind of broken down into the haves and the
have nots. You've got two teams on top, with the Cowboys and the Eagles, both of which are over under nine and a half. And on the other side, you've got the Giants with an over under of six and the Redskins at an over under of five. Any of these do you find enticing either the over or the under on any of them?
I kind of like the Cowboys over, to be completely honest. They are actually tied for the second easiest schedule this upcoming season, and they so it's at nine and a half. It looks like so, I mean, they should have got double digit wins last year. They kind of blew it late in the year. They still have a very good offense, obviously a pretty solid defense, and with that second easiest schedule, I mean that that's the one that sticks out to me the most to be the over on the Cowboys.
Yeah, you know, that's interesting because if there was, you know, I don't boy, I hate to admit this, I don't love a ton in the NFC. I had a little, you know, stronger reaction to Adam Burke and I talked about it earlier this week about the AFC, But you know, I actually kind of leaned the other way on the Cowboys. Now, I will be honest, I'm I'm kind of in the minority. You look at the juice that's on it, it's you know,
minus one twenty one. This is a consensus minus won twenty one to the over, even money to the under. So they want you to take the under. So you're kind of you know, you're where the sharp side of it probably is. But I think for me, you know, I get it. The offense is, you know, largely intact. They resigned Tomari Cooper, they still have Dak Prescott, and they gotd of Jason Witten whatever. But Blake Darwin is perfectly capable. He'll see an increase from the thirty nine
percent of snaps you saw last year. They did lose Travis Frederick. That's a big loss on their offensive line. And again they've been known for their offensive line for a couple of years. But I felt like if you looked at it last year, it was a little you know, it was a little dicier than it had been recently. And I think losing Frederick's only going to make that a little bit worse. And on the defensive side, look, I mean, you lose Byron Jones and you lose Robert Quinn,
those are pretty big losses. Get that they've you know, they've added Don Tari Poe and Gerald McCoy and ha Clinton Dixon. They may have the best pass rush in the NFC if Alden Smith and Randy Gregory, you know, play out how they could. But you know that that's still pretty big question marks there. They're not a bad team, and their defense definitely should have been better. And you know, you do look at their schedule. You mentioned it, Yeah,
in terms of opponents winning percentage, it's really easy. It's right up there, second or third, whatever it is. But you know, you look at the way their games break down. Seahawks in Seattle, Ravens in Baltimore, Vikings in Minnesota. They've got the forty nine Ers, the Steelers, the Browns are going to be a lot better than last year. They're rams.
Teams are going to give them a fight. And I don't know whether or not switching you know, to Mike McCarthy from Jason Garrett is really going to be enough to make them play better than they should have been. It just it strikes me as a team that looks similar to last year where they should have been better.
I agree, but you know, they were eight and eight, so I could see nine and seven, but over nine and a half, it just it strikes me, especially again, and I will make it clear getting even money on the under is really one of the reasons I liked it. If it was if the big wasn't as good, I
probably wouldn't love it as much. But to me, I don't know, man a lot of their games, especially considering that you know they've got the tough games on the road, Like I can't see them beating the Ravens in Baltimore. It's hard to see them beating the Seahawks in Seattle. The Vikings maybe, but in Minnesota. It's just it's not something. Again, the Steelers are going to be better, the Browns are going to be better. So they're winning percentage of their
opponents I don't know is really indigative. I've talked a lot, so you go ahead and make your case there.
Yeah, no, I mean those are all fair points. One thing that you did bring up that is a really good point is the change of head coach. I mean, I'm not a Jason Garrett believer whatsoever, so I mean when they got rid of him, it would have made me think that that they'd be a better team. But then hiring Mike McCarthy. I mean, who knows if that was the right call in that situation. I mean, Mike McCarthy has won a Super Bowl, so it's kind of hard to speak too negatively of them.
Although I will say before you jumped into that further, is that last year when the Jets, my team were looking for a head coach, I was happy when they got Adam Gaze as opposed to Mike McCarthy. Now, that just may be my own personal thing, and I'm certainly not excited about Adam Gase, but it was more about, I guess, probably for me, to be fair, the fact that you signed Mike McCarthy. He's probably there for five years, regardless of what happens where They can probably get out
from Adam Gaze, hopefully after this year. But yeah, it depends. Maybe he's all in on analytics now, right, you spend all that time watching analytics or whatever he said that he said to Jerry Jones to get the job. But yeah, it's probably not a downgrade at the very least from Jason Garrett, who screamed mediocrity.
Now, I mean, there's another coaching change in the NFC's not to get too far off the Cowboys here almost, but the Giants obviously bringing in Joe Judge. I mean, it's hard to tell with win percentage or with win totals how much a head coach is going to have an effect on that. But four wins last year for the Giants over under six this year? Can they improve more than two wins in order to hit the over? For the Giants? That's a little bit tough to tell.
How much is Daniel Jones gonna improve? I mean, obviously they have offensive line issues that they need to address. If I were to look at another nfcast team, I think I would have to go the under in that Giants win total of six. I just don't think that they've made the improvements enough improvements to improve by more than three wins this upcoming season.
Yeah, this time we're on the same side. That was the other one that I was kind of looking at that if I had to pick one here, I'd like the under on six. Yeah, they just really haven't done any I mean, they added James Bradberry, he's good, Blake Martinez fine, they kept Leonard Williams around, but they their
offensive line stinks. They've got no pass rush. I mean you know, they they've got what the fourth overall picks, so you know, everybody thinks they're gonna take Simmons, you know, out of Clemson, and you know you've got Saque healthy for a full year, and you've got another year out of Jones. But you know, again, their schedule, just like the Cowboys, is pretty easy when you look at opponents win percentage at least, and you know, they've got the
Redskins twice. They've got the Bengals in Cincy. They've made, you know, the Cardinals an improved team at home. But you know, even if you give them all that, they still need three more wins. They get the Ravens of Baltimore, the Bears in Chicago, the Rams in Los Angeles, the
Seahawks and Seattle. They've got to play the Bucks, who are going to be improved of course with Brady, the Steelers, who should be improved with Big Ben there, the Browns, which should be improved, the forty nine Ers, you know, unless they can split against the Cowboys and the Eagles, and the Cowboys and Eagles are both much better teams than the Giants, so it's hard to see them getting to seven. So with that one I agree with you. I don't know. We'll touch on this before we go.
There's one other coaching change and that's the Redskins. You know, who are bringing in Ron Rivera. They're over under is five, and man, it is hard when an over under is that low to not be like, I mean, just football, you know, that's the way football is. You've got these teams look like they'll be abysmal, and you get, man, how are you going to get more than three wins? But I don't know, this was not one that I felt good about on either side. Do you want to
touch the Redskins over under five at all? Or is that one that you're just like, nah, that's about right. I'm running away.
Yeah, I'd run away from that one. And the main reason why is just I don't know what Dwayne Haskins is going to do. I don't know. Maybe the Redskins might even draft a different quarterback in this upcoming draft. So right now, with the way things stand, I would have to just stay away with the Redskins because just way too many question marks. But I do like the Redskins coach hiring better than the other two in the NFC East though, so that's one positive for the Redskins.
Yeah. Sure, Ron Rivera is certainly an admired coach. He's going to bring you a good just sort of psyche
to that team. The one thing to think about, by the way, when you're looking at all the over unders that are coming, especially now we'll talk about it here with the NFC East, is that you know, there may be short training camps right now with everything that's going on, so it might see an effect on implementing any of these new systems, which could you know, even if the season starts on time, it could make a real difference.
So it is a little something where again that's probably a little bit why I lean the unders on both of those that I talked about, the Cowboys and the Giants, because I also think that's an added thing that's gonna hurt some of these teams that have changed coaches.
Yeah, that's a really good point.
Let's move on here to the NFC North. This one's a little more jumbled. You've got both the Packers and the Vikings over under of nine, the Bears over under of eight, and the Lions over under of six and a half. What do you think here any of these strike your fancy a little bit.
I'm to be honest, I'm a little bit surprised that the Packers are at nine. If they were at ten, I would have taken the under. I think this is going to be a year of reckoning for older quarterbacks, and that includes Aaron Rodgers, and that includes some other quarterbacks are going to touch on here in some other divisions in the NFC. The biggest one that probably sticks out to me there in the NFC North is the Bears. I think they're lucky to be eight and eight last year.
I don't think Nick Foles is not the answer at quarter back, So I would lean the under in the Bears. That would probably be my best bet o to that group. But a lot of question marks in the NFC North, especially at quarterback. Is Kirk Cousin's going to do anything for the Vikings this year? I mean, they got rid of Stefan Diggs. There's rumors about them getting OBJ. Let's see if they get OBJ. I don't think they're going to. But probably the biggest one I would lean towards is
the under and the Bears. I just I they need a quarterback. They need a quarterback. They just don't have enough offensive weapons, and I don't think Nick Foles is the answer there.
I think the one thing that I feel when I look at the teams in this division is that none of them has gotten better. Is that possible? Like they all just seem worse than they were last year? Right? Am I crazy?
Or is that?
Is that how you look at them too?
That's exactly how I looked on Yeah. I mean, obviously we still have a little bit of ways to go, especially with the draft as well, but to this point of the offseason, none of them have improved. They've all probably got slightly worse.
Yeah, I agree, So, I mean you touched on them, but I think, you know, if there's one that I kind of like here, it's probably the Packers over nine. I don't necessarily know if they'll get to ten, but I feel pretty confident that they'll get to nine and that it would be a push. It almost I think they were over under nine last year and I said the exact same thing coming in. It's a four win drop from last year. And I get that they played, you know, they were not they were one of the
worst thirteen and three teams. Yeah, probably of all time, right, even though they made it to the NFC Championship game. They were not a thirteen win team. But you know, even with the quiet offseason, you know, they lost Brian Blaga, you know, Jimmy Graham whatever, and Geronimolson also whatever. They've lost some key pieces on defense like Blake Martinez, b J. Goodson, Kyler Facrel and their additions have don't really move the needle. I mean, they so desperately need a second receiver and
the idea that Devin Funches is gonna solve all this. Now, this is a really deep receiver class for the draft, so this could be something that they'll get here. But you know, Rick Wagner on the offensive line, Christian Kirksey's fine on defense, but they're really not you know, they need someone on offense. Whether or not they draft somebody or Alan Lazard comes out or Jay Sternberger takes that step,
they certainly need somebody to step up here. You know, they've got a pretty tough overall schedule, but you know, they are better. You mentioned that the Bears should be worse. I agree with that, the Lions and the Bears, and that they get the Panthers, they get the Jaguars, the Falcons. I just feel like to get to at least nine wins, especially with this division, I think they get there and just I don't know, man, Maybe it's the optics of seeing a four wind drop. You know, that's a lot.
That's a lot, you know, And even though they weren't that good to me, I just feel like your worst case at this point is a push. By the way, it's minus one ten on both sides, so it's not leaning either way. But I think i'd go with the over on the Packers. I agree with you that I'm not sitting here being like, whoa boy, They're gonna get
to ten wins. I feel really good about that, But I do think nine is probably I feel very confident they can get to nine and at worse push, you know what I'm saying.
Yeah, I think nine is probably the right number. Like I said, I'm kind of I'm surprised is that big of a drop off since they had thirteen wins last year. I thought that number would be ten at least, so I would have taken the under if it was ten. At nine, I think that's the right number. So that's kind of a stay away for the Packers For me.
The only other one in the North that I kind of liked, and I you know, again, I feel like I'm at the extremes right now. I mean, the numbers aren't huge in this division at least. I mean the top one is over nine and the bottom one is over under six and a half. So it's not a huge difference. But I kind of lean under on the Lions. There's just been to me, there's been a really bad offseason for the Lions. I mean, their defensive line is
completely decimated. They lost Snax Harrison and Ashaun Robinson, Mike Daniels, Cainnard, they lost Arius Sleigh, you know who I get. There was a lot of you know a lot of people thought that he underperformed last year. He just seemed miserable. I really, you know, I think that he's fine and he'll be a boon to the Eagles. You know, they brought in Desmondryfont, but he is no you know, he's
not what he once was. They did add darn Harmon and from the Pats, but I don't really think that their pass defense is going to improve significantly, and it wasn't good last year. And then look they signed you know, they overpaid for Vyti on their offensive line, but they're down Glasgow and Wagner. I mean, they have a really high pick. They have some easily winnable games, like the
Redskins and the Jaguars, maybe the Panthers. But again, you know, we've talked about the schedules, and you know, I don't want to go crazy with the win percentage because teams change. Obviously. You know that. You know, when you're playing the Patriots this year, for example, it's different than it would have looked when you're playing the Patriots last year. But they've got the fifth toughest schedule. I believe they're tied for that in opponents win percentage. It's not an easy schedule.
So as much as I don't love any of the other teams in the division, they all to me seem like they can pretty well handle the line. So strikes me as more of a five or six win team as opposed to six and a half. So if I was looking at one other bet here, I kind of like the under on six and a half the line. I don't know how you feel about that one.
Yeah, I do. And another point with the Lions, their coach Matt Patricia, I don't believe in Matt Patricia. A few things have kind of commote this offseason that the players don't really like him either. So I think that's a recipe for disaster in Detroit this year. I think Matt Matt Patricia is not their guy.
Yeah, well, I would be surprised if he makes it past the season APS in a miraculous turnaround. And again, to be as fair as possible, they were not terrible with Stafford in there. You know, when Stafford went out,
they just completely went in the tank. But really, I just I don't see it from this team right now, and I don't expect you know, I think they're clearly going to be the worst team in the division, and I think five or six wins is really where I could see them top out, unless I'm really misjudging the team at this early point. Let's move here to the South, where we've got a really kind of interesting division because you've got, of course Brady coming in and changing the
entire dynamic of the Bucks. But you've got the Saints leading the way at an over under of ten and a half, the Bucks with an over under of nine, the Falcons with an over under of seven and a half, and the Panthers with an over under of five and a half.
So what do you think here, Well, I mean the one that sticks out to me obviously if you remember I'm a massive Falcons fan. I mean, I think this is too low of a number for the Falcons, and even me, I might be a little bit biased. Dan Quinn still obviously concerns me a lot. That was some of the worst coaching I've ever seen in my life the first half of their season, but they finished what six and two the last eight games at the end of the year, including win over the forty nine Ers,
who are obviously in the Super Bowl. I mean that rosters is too talented for seven and a half, Like they just need to go eight to eight and they hit the over on that. I mean, in my mind, that's that's the biggest lock in all of the NFL for over underwin totals. Now, I understand obviously big Falcons fans,
so a little bit biased there. But as far as the other teams in the NFC South, I mentioned when talking about the Packers, I think this is gonna be a year reckoning four older quarterbacks, and in that group, I believe Drew Brees is going to take a big step back this year. We saw kind of flashes of it last year. He wasn't the Drew Brees that he used to be. And same with the Bucks. I mean, the Bucks win total, their Super Bowl odds, all their futures shot up when they got Tom Brady. I mean
I don't think I mean Tom Brady. I mean, you can't play at a high level that Tom Brady plays at forever. I mean, what is he now, forty two years old. He didn't look good last year, and I don't think he's gonna get better on the Bucks. He obviously has a little bit more offensive weapons on the Bucks than he did in the Patriots last year. But I mean father time at some point is going to catch up to Tom Brady, and we saw flashes of
that last year. So I don't think Tom Brady is worth as much as what the odds makers are making him worth for the Bucks. So I like the Under and the Bucks. I like the Under and the Saints, and then the over and the Falcons and then the Panthers. I just stay away from that team because I don't even know. I don't even know who's like who's going to be at quarterback. Well, no, it's gonna be Teddy Bridgewater. But they just signed Christi McCaffrey to a big deal.
That's always a little bit of curse for running back late least getting signed to a big deal. So Panthers are just a little bit of a question for me. I'd stay away from from the Panthers win total.
All right. I like the strong takes, and as somebody who's old himself, I take a little bit of offense. So how bad you're hitting on these older quarterbacks? But yeah, so here, First of all, you seem just to be clear that you said over Falcons, and I get that you're a Falcons fan, but I assume that you're able to put that aside when you're assessing the team that's your favorite over under of the NFC. Is that what you're saying?
Oh yes, I already know I'm going to be placing. I want to see how the draft goes because I need to see who they're going to take in the first round. It's it's hopefully going to be either pass rusher defensive back. But I plan on making a very sizable bet on the over on their win total this season.
Interesting, Okay, So I mean, I I lean towards the over as well, but I don't feel all that strongly about it. And you know, for me, it's again, offensively, they should largely look the same, right, I mean, they got rid of DeVonta Freeman, but they added in Todd Gurley. They got rid of Austin Hooper, but they got Hayden Hurst, which to me, I don't really think that's a huge difference when I'm looking at it. I hope Austin Hooper fans don't yell at me, but you know, you get
another growth from Calvin Ridley. They were fifteenth in offensive DBOA last year, so I think they'll be fine offensively, and again as always, they've got to find a way to stay healthy on defense, and they added Dante Fowler so they'll have a better pass rush. For me, the reason why I'm not, you know, jumping for joy about them is, you know, the schedule. Again, We've talked about it a lot here. Don't go crazy with opponent's win percentage, but it's the fifth toughest tide and you know, the
division outside of the Panthers is tough. You know, I'm not ready to you know, I'm not saying you're writing them off. But I do think the Bucks are probably a better team. I do think the Saints are certainly a better team. And when you look at their schedule outside of the Division, They're at Green Bay, They're at Arrowhead, They've obviously got to go, you know, at New Orleans one of the games, and at Tampa, they've got to go at Minnesota, at Dallas. They've got tough road games.
Those games are tough to win, right because they've got a pretty nice little home field going on there. So that's really what worries me a little bit about them, and the reason again, if I'm going one way or the other, I'm going over and it is one of the ones that I like better. I don't love this division at all, but it is one of the ones
I liked a little bit better. But I would go over a little bit with them, but not jumping for joy because of the schedule, because how tough their road games is, you know what I'm saying.
Yeah, definitely, And the biggest concern for me with the Falcons, especially on offense. Obviously talented at almost every single position, but it is their offensive line. I'm a big believer in trenches. The Trench's offensive and defensive line are the most important positions on a football team, and their offensive line is questionable. Now. They were a little bit banged up last season, but two of their starters last season were rookies, so having a season under the belt for
both rookies, I'm hoping their offensive line gets better. They have to because their offensive line was a big issue last year. So if there was one concern that I would have on the Falcons hitting the over on their win total, it's their offensive line.
Yeah, yeah, I think that's fair. The other one I like, and again you went the other way on this one, which is totally fair, and all your points you brought up, I kind of like the Saints over actually, and look, they've got at least eleven wins in three straight years. They finally got Breeze a second receiver that he could rely on. It's not you know, Ted Gin anymore or Trakeon Smith. It's Emanuel Sanders, So I think it's kind
of a perfect fit for that team. They also added you know, Malcolm Jenkins that safety, so I think he's going to improve their defense. Their schedule it lays out pretty well for them, and most of their tough games. The Chiefs, the forty nine Ers, the Packers, the Vikings, all of those are at home, which is a major advantage for the Saints. And look, Breeze is certainly not exactly what he once was. I mean, his completion percentage still mind boggling, but he doesn't have the arm strength
that he used to or anything like that. But a when you get him another receiver like they did and b bottom line is, you know, Teddy Bridgewater is not anywhere in the same class as Breeze, and they still win I believe five and oh when Bridgewater was in their last year. So I think even if Breeze starts dropping off, and I don't expect him to drop off
a cliff, that's the thing. I don't think it's gonna be the There's always the risk that it's Peyton Manning in his final year right where you know there are maybe a few signs the year before, but you certainly don't expect him to come out and be like, all of a sudden, can't throw whatsoever. There's always that risk when you get to this stage. But I haven't really seen enough signs on it from Breeze, so I'm certainly expecting him to be even if he's not what he
was last year, not to fall off a cliff. And I think the Saints, you know, their offensive scheme as you saw with Bridgewater, adding in Emmanuel Sanders gives them enough to be able to get to eleven wins here.
Yeah, you made some good points there. One thing I had looked at that kind of now and whether or not I would go the under in the wing total is the fact that their toughest games are at home. That's a really good point. They have a massive home field advantage, right, So yeah, you convinced me from saying that I would take the under and that to now it's a stay away from me.
Yes, you are right, That's all I've ever wanted. There is one thing that we I think we'd be remiss if we didn't point out, which is we don't know for sure that they're going to be playing these games in this schedule in the way it's slid out now, right. We really don't know whether or not it's somehow going to be in other stadiums in other places. So when you're making your bets, you obviously have to factor that, and for now, I think you go forward and personally,
I don't know about you. I mean, I am expecting them to figure out a way to play the games as normally for basically an entire season. Now what there That means there are no fans in the stadium, which is probably what I expect. That's fine, but I do and that may take away, by the way, from the
home field advantage. Of course, without without saying, unless you're Atlanta, right, your boys who can pop in some maybe they should just allow everyone to do that, just say, all right, get your get a tape of all your crowd noise, that you get pump, but that that is gonna affect something. But still again, even so, I still think just generally being at home, being in a dome, it's just better for Breeze than the Saints. So it is something where
I lean over. And you know, I also not that I let this factor in, but I'd like to see Breeze be able to take one home. And I think you still got enough left in the tank. And I think when he doesn't, he's gonna walk away from the game. He's not gonna be Brady, who's really probably gonna hold on until no team will sign him. Essentially, so that could be forever. But let's move on here to our
final division, the NFC West. You've got the forty nine ers over under of ten and a half, the Seahawks and over under of nine and a half, the Rams and over under of eight and a half, and the Cardinal's over under seven. So no real black sheep in this division at this point. How are you feeling about this one?
Uh? The one I like the most is the Rams over eight and a half. I mean, this is a team that was in the Super Bowl a couple of years ago. Obviously, the big determining factor of how they're going to do this season is Jared Goff. He did not look great last season. He was probably the biggest reason why they didn't make the playoffs. I don't think he's a great quarterback. I don't think he's a top
five quarterback, maybe not even a top ten quarterback. But I think he is better than what he was last year. Eight and a half's two low number for a team. I'm still a big Sean McVeigh believer. I think he is one of the best coaches in the league. So I think it's just too low of a win total for a team with that much talent on the roster, and that could have a head coach. I like the over on that one. The other one that I'd be looking at in that division is the under in the Cardinals.
Because I'm not a believer whatsoever in Kyler Murray, I need to see more of him. I just think he looks to run with the ball too much than too yeah, too much than that I would like in a quarterback. I think I'd rather like to see him use his feet to gain more time in the pocket. But it seems like he pulls the ball down and looks for areas to run a little bit too quickly when he's dropping back and going through his progression. So seven I think is too many, too many wins for the Cardinals.
So the two that I liked the most would be the under and the Cardinals and the over in the Rams.
Interesting, Okay, so I don't I don't have a strong feeling on the Rams. I think if I were to go one way, it would probably be the over. They haven't had a great I mean they obviously, you know, they had no calf space whatsoever. So they got rid of Girly and they got rid of Cooks who didn't really do all that much. And yeah, golf struggled, but really that was because of the offensive line. And I'm not sure how much better it's going to be this year.
And you know, something that people haven't really talked about that much is Wade Phillips has gone. He's not gonna be the defensive coordinator and I think he had kind of a big impact. But even then, they still are a very talented team even with all these warts. And I know they only went nine and seven last year, but I agree with you that I think McVeigh is going to be able to make certain adjustments, you know, seeing what he did last year to get them tonight wins. So I lean over a little bit.
Now.
I don't have a strong feeling on the Cardinals. I think seven sounds about right to me, But it is surprising to me. I think that you view this right out of the gate as a six win team. Look, they went five ten and one last year, so they almost won six games. I think you can. You know, for me, I'm expecting Kyler Murray to take a step forward, you know, and obviously they added DeAndre Hopkins and you
know they'll have Kenyan Drake the entire year. So I do think you know, Murray, you're worried about him looking to run every time he has the ball, Maybe he won't as much now, both with just natural growth that comes from your second year and also the fact that he has a legitimate stud wide receiver out there. They also, you know, they added a couple of pieces on defense. You know, they had a Canar, they had a Jordan Phillips, they had a Devandra Campbell. So it is going to
be an improved team. It's to be clear, I don't like either side of this bet. It's a tough division, the schedule's not great, and seven strikes me as a pretty solid But it just surprised me because you seem pretty big on the under here.
Yeah, it's just I mean, and this is a take going into the NFL draft last year when Kyler Murray was being drafted. I've never thought that he was going to be a great NFL quarterback. So it was kind of a hot take that I had to put out there. And I'm just sticking to my guns. That's all right, But I mean, I don't know, I don't know. Their wins last year weren't by a whole lot of points. They beat the Falcons in a game they should not
have won by one point. They barely got by the Bengals, and another win, barely got by the Giants, and another win. I don't know. I'm just not a Kyler Murray believer. Seven wins. I just think it's too many. But I mean, you made good points. They have. They have had a good offseason so far. I mean, you can't argue with bringing in DeAndre Hopkins. I mean, obviously that's a huge upgrade.
They have a very good receiving course. So this is when I could see myself being dead wrong and to be completely honest, but I from what I've seen from Kyler Murray, I just I don't think he's a quarterback that can lead that team to over seven wins.
Well we did, you know see last year that winning the with the Browns, winning the offseason does not mean, you know, success translating to the actual season. But I am more bullish on Murray, you know, especially with I agree that he he didn't really you know, there were plenty of parts of his game that needed improvement. But
you know, again I give rookies. For a rookie quarterback, I was pretty impressed with what he was able to do, even if there were many games where I was like, ah, I don't understand what's happening right now, and I don't. I'm not like in love with the system you know that they have there with Kingsbury. I understand it's it's it's solid and and you know, it works in college and it works in the NFL. But I'm not like overly in love with that still. I think you add
DeAndre Hopkins, you give him Kenyan Drake Coo. I think he is for that system, a perfect fit. I'm a little more bullish on them again, not something where I really love it on either side of the seven. I was just a little more surprised that you were. You know, yeah, I'm going with the the under on this, the one that I kind of like, and oh way, I don't even want to have to justify this because I look at it and I'm just like, I shouldn't because they
were so overrated last year. They should not have been eleven and five. But I kind of like the Seahawks over nine and a half. I mean, the team is pretty intact, and they've added a little bit on their offensive line. They've added greg Olsen on their defense. You know, they resigned reed, they added Bruce Irvin, they traded for Quintin Dunbar for nothing. Basically, I don't know if they're gonna get clowney. I'd like to see them get clowny.
It would make me feel a lot better about it if he stops asking for you know, twenty million a year, whatever he's asking for. They weren't an eleven win team. But again, you look at their schedule. You know, this year they get the AFC East, which I think is a relatively easy division. You know, they'll get the Jets, they'll get the Dolphins. I'm of the view right now that the Patriots are not going to be a particularly
impressive team. I realize that that's blasphemy even without Brady to bet against Belichick, but you know, to me, I think that's a game they can win. They get the Redskins, they have a lot of winnable games there, and then you know, they get a couple of their tough games, like before they get the Vikings, they get the Cowboys, both at home. That's a really tough place to play, and you know, they're a better team in my mind
than the Rams. And the Cardinals. So I think when you add that all up, and again, no matter what happens, if they ever just stop doing the Brian Schottenheimer, let's just run the ball on first down and run the ball on second down, and maybe if we fall behind, we'll let Russell Wilson be Russell Wilson where we're ten times as good as we are otherwise. I do think in the end that he's just a guy who as long as they are relatively intact offensively, he'll get them
to ten wins. So I kind of like the Seahawks over nine and a half. I don't love it, but if there was one bet for me in the division, it would be the Seahawks slight lean to over nine and a half.
Yeah, I do like that. Pick one thing that does worry me about the Seahawks. You made a lot of good points there the Seahawks last season. If you took every team in the NFL in each one score game, you reverse the result, the Seahawks would have worst record at the NFC, I believe. So. They won a lot
of very close games last year. So that is a big reason why I'm a little bit worried to take the over nine, but Russell Wilson, I mean I think he's a I mean we're not talking MVP odds, but I think he's actually a sleeper to win MVP this season. He was close to winning it last season. I think Russell Wilson is one of the best quarterbacks in the league. So it's I can't take an under nine for a team that I think as an MVP caliber quarterback. And
we were talking about Kyler Murray. If Kyler Murray wants to study a guy that he can replicate and have success with, it's Russell Wilson. That's what he needs to look at. And I don't know if maybe I'm just comparing the two because they're both short, and as a fellow short guy, I can say that short quarterbacks have
a little bit of a tough time. So Russell Wilson uses his feet in the right way, though, He uses his feet to gain more time in the pocket and behind the line of scrimmage instead of just tucking the ball and looking for a place to run all the time. So if Kyler Murray wants to look at a guy that he can replicate and have success with, it's Russell Wilson. So it's hard for me to take an under that Seahawks win total of nine with Russell Wilson. But it's hard for me to take the over just given how
many how many close games there in last year. And the other point that you made, which is a good point, is they just gotta they gotta stop running the ball so much. They need to just because and that's a lot of the reasons why they won these close games.
It's because late in the games, it'd be they were barely winning or they were losing, and then they would just let Russell Wilson be Russell Wilson, and then Russell Wilson would do Russell Wilson type things and win the game for them on like a last second drive or something like that. So they just need to they need to give the ball to Russell Wilson, even let him call plays, sometimes run some no huddle with Russell Wilson.
They're gonna find success that way. So it's a stay away from me because I just don't know about play calling and how many close games there in last year, But I like Russell Wilson a lot.
Yeah, the reversing of the one score games is actually something that we talked about last earlier this week when we were talking about the Chargers, because they were the opposite if you reversed, right, if you reversed their one score games, and I like the Seahawks. They were largely intact. Of course, the change in quarterback over there, but that was something to be bullish on. So that is a
really good point. I think of this analogy with baseball, where you know, there are sometimes where you have all these expected statistics and what things really should be if they worked out with expected batting average or you know, expected slugging percentage or what people should have done, and there are some players that for whatever reason just outperform their expected stats. They should be this good, they are
actually much better. And that's kind of how the Seahawks feel to me every time, where yeah, they're not that good a team, but I think Wilson is just so good, especially when push comes to shove towards the end of the games, that he's able to win so many games that they really should lose, either because of their game plan or just because they were outclassed. It's just how
good he is. The one point again which I think we would be remiss if we didn't talk about, is their home field advantage may not be as much of a home field advantage if there aren't fans allowed to be in the stadium, which is a possibility, And if that's the case, then yeah, the fact, you know, one of the big things is the quest is so difficult to plan because the noise is just sort of kept in and it makes it really difficult for all opposing teams.
If there aren't fans, that home bield advantage probably goes out the window a bit. So that is something to think about with the Seahawks because if that's true, then there you know, games at home, like I just said, the Vikings and the Cowboys doesn't look quite as appealing, you know what I'm saying.
Definitely, And it just just a quick note just about home field advantage because I mean, this is this is looking like it's gonna be a very real thing that we're gonna have to consider for the NFL season. Obviously with the Seahawks and some other teams. The fans do play a big part in home field advantage, but the biggest part in home field advantage. Everyone talks about the fans, but the biggest part is just travel in time zone change.
Mm hm. So I think in the upcoming NFL season, if there is no fans at these games, I think the public, the public, just public betters are going to overvalue that fact, Whereas I think I'm still going to consider home field advantage to be to be an important factor, just because I think travel and time zone change is a much bigger factor when it comes to home field
advantage more than fans. Now that's a little bit different with the Seahawks because they have that weird stadium that's built to make the crowd noise even louder than what it naturally would be, so might make so fans are more important at the Seahawks stadium than other stadiums. But just a quick note to think about home field advantage from that perspective.
A really really good point, absolutely right. I mean, not having to travel and getting to you know, be comfortable and all of that is certainly a big deal, especially for teams on the coast when they play teams from the other coast, that's a big deal. But again, yeah, you talked about it. For certain teams, someone like Seattle, a team like Seattle, the crowd noise is a bigger
deal because it keeps it in. But generally speaking, that's a really good point to remember as we get into the season, which is you're right, the public is probably going to be like, oh, well, you know, there's no forget about home field advantage, when realistically there's still certainly going to be a component. Yeah, all right, Ian, that was great. Thanks for coming on the show. It's been
a while since we talked. I know, you know again, you've probably got some Madden to go be handicapping over there, so but it was great to catch up remind everybody where they can find more of you in your work when there is more than just Madden simulations of course to look at.
Yes, absolutely, it's been nice talking to you too. It's just been nice just to talk about sports for a change. But yeah, if anyone wants to follow me in Twitter, that's the best place to keep up with all my stuff. As you mentioned at the top of the show there, Ian mac Os and I have an extra I in Ian, so it's I AI n m Acos on Twitter.
Awesome. Well, thanks again for coming on And when we get into the season and look, I regardless of everything that's going on, I really I do feel confident that there will be a football season in some way, shape or form, So when there is one, I'd love to have you back on Absolutely man, I can't wait, all right, don't forget to head over to Bettingpros dot com to check out all of our consensus lines, including our Draft
Day props and NFL futures. As I said, we're gonna be back on Monday talking about some of our favorite Draft Day props. Thanks again for listening, and I'll talk to you then