Hey there, everybody. Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL Podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris.
Excuse me.
You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris. Adie with me is Matt Parole, host of the Daily Juice podcast. You can find him on Twitter at Sports Talk Matt.
Matt. What's going on?
Well, we are rapidly approaching the start of the NFL season, so I am extremely excited that we actually can talk football, and not just hypothetical football, but real football, real soon around the corner.
I kind of felt like this was never gonna come, like agree so far away, and then you know, you obviously had all the health concerns and stuff like that. But all of a sudden, we've got NHL playoffs, we've got NBA playoffs, we've got MLB, and now we're gonna have NFL and it's gonna be a little bit like sports Mecca.
You know what I'm saying.
It's really neat. It's really fun when you throw in the PGA to what we saw for the playoffs for the now come up with the tour champion and yeah, I mean in terms of how bad things were in April and May, where we are now, I've been trying to remind myself and everybody around me, like, let's stick a second here and acknowledge what we've got going on right now, because yes, twenty twenty is a horrible year, but we will never ever see anything like this in
terms of the month of August and September. In October again, I mean college football, NFL football, all the other playoffs going on at the same time. It's quite a remarkable time.
Just makes things seem a little easier when we have something else to focus on. So let's get into it. Last week we did the AFC preview. Today we are going to do the NFC preview, and the next week we are into the season.
We've got an exciting.
Program that we're going to be giving you, but we'll talk about that more next week. As usual, we are going to be using the consensus over under win totals over at bettingpros dot com. Those are the aggregate of the odds that are available in the market. As always, you can see the various sportsbooks, so if you like one over the other, you can certainly shop around for the best odds, but we're going to be using the consensus odds that are listed right now. You can find
those of ourt Betting Pros dot Com NFL wins. Now, before we get into it, DraftKings is giving you the most ridiculous bet in the history of mankind. Matt knows about this. I have already taken advantage of it. DraftKings, thankfully is my sportsbook in New Hampshire. The Chiefs are laying ten points against the Texans on opening night. Go to the following link Bettingpros dot Com slash Chiefs one oh one. Okay, I'm going to say that a couple
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one o one. All right, Matt, Not every bet that we're going to talk about today. It's going to be quite that easy.
But be a better world for us.
If it were, it would be fun it was.
Let's start with the NFC East here.
Okay, you've got the Cowboys leaning the way it over under nine and a half. That's just heavily towards the over, the Eagles which are now over under nine, the Giants over under six, juiced a little bit towards the under, and Washington over under five.
Just a little bit toward the over.
So what are you thinking here as we head rapidly into the season.
All right, look, I know that you're a big fantasy guy, so Saquon Barkley's gonna have a gigantic year, But I'm not a very big believer in that offense. Otherwise, not very big believer in rookie head coaches in the middle of COVID. So I've kind of taken the stance that you're gonna fade first year head coaches in this COVID year because of the lack of preparation, the lack of time to get their system in place. He has a
young quarterback in Daniel Jones. I know Sakuon Barkley, but I'm pretty strong on the under here for the Giants. I think they're a five win football team at MAX and I just Joe Judge is barely I mean, I mean I'm older than Joe Judge. Okay, so he's just everybody's come out of the Patriot tree. The former coaches have not been good. Mike Frabel is a former player. Different story. I'm on the under for the Giants.
So here's the thing. It's not just the new head coach.
Right, it's the new offensive coordinator, right, Jason Garrett, new defensive coordinator.
Bye.
Right.
I mean they are basically rebuilding the entire thing. That's not what you want to be doing right now with COVID. Now here's the one thing I'm gonna say. They get Washington twice. I know how you feel about Washington. If they're going to even be able to be competitive, They've.
Got the Bengals in Cincinnati.
We don't expect the Bengals to be very good. They've got you know, maybe the Cardinals at home. Maybe you want to give them that if you're not that excited, but you look at the rest of their of their you know, schedule, They've got to find three more wins to hit the over and they've got the Ravens, you know, the Bears in Chicago, the Rams in Los Angeles, Seattle and Seattle, the Bucks, the Steelers, the Browns, the forty nine Ers, the Bear, you know, the Bears we talked about.
I don't really know where those wins are going to come from, you know that that's really the thing.
They've got a.
Brutal opener too, right, a brutal opening schedule where they're going to hit a bunch of tough defenses. So this is a team where I agree that, you know, if I have to go one side or the other, I'll go the other. I don't hate the offense generally speaking, coming in. I mean they've they've done some stuff with the offensive line. I kind of like Jones for the future. You know, they have weapons with Saquon, they've got the three receivers, they've got Evan Ingram, So it's possible that
they're going to surprise. But I agree, you look at that schedule. I really don't see how they're going to be able to get to seven wins overall. Let me ask you about the Eagles, because the Eagles obviously are now you know, they're well coached. Of course, we know they were I believe at nine and a half at earlier in the offseason. They're down to nine. They we
talked about the Chargers. I teased you a little bit because you know, you countered my what about the Chargers with they're like a legitimately cursed team because.
They get what about the Eagles.
I mean, you know we've got Miles Sanders. Let's assume you know the word is he's you know it was a vague lower body injury, but it's apparently a hamstring. He's reportedly supposed to be okay and good to go. Let's assume he's fine. Let's assume Carson Wentz is fine because he's also dealing with some sort of soft tissue injury. Right alson, Jeffrey is not going to play at the start. He may avoid the publics, but he's not going to play to start the season. Jalen Rager is going to.
Miss a few gate games. At least.
They've already got two massive injuries to their offensive line with Brandon Brooks and Andre Dillard.
How do you feel about them at over under nine?
If I had to bet it, I would bet the under because I think this entire division it's probably a nine win team at max. I think this is just a typical NFC East type of year where everyone's gonna hover around seven and nine, eight and eight and nine and seven. I don't love I mean, Doug Peterson had one great year. Outside of that, I mean, let's just
be honest here, they haven't been that great. Carson Wentz has not lived up to the hype, and I don't know really what this team looks like from an injury standpoint, So if I had to bet it, I would bet the under. I don't like any of these teams, to be quite honest, I don't like the Cowboys. I don't like the Eagles. I don't like the the the Washington football teams.
Heuse almost cut, Yeah, you cut yourself.
I just don't like any of them. I just I think this is a bad football division right now, and I think that people are just assuming that here comes Mike McCarthy and the Cowboys and they're going to be great. And I've never been a big Dak Prescott fan. I just I mean, the fact that they were even toying with the idea of paying him thirty five forty million dollars a year is insane to me. So I know people are there's a Dak segment that love him or hate him. I'm on the other side. I don't like him,
So I don't like any of these win totals. To be quite honest, I would go under with the Eagles if I had to bet it.
Let me ask something, If you really do view not only the Cowboys that way, but the entire division, why not be you know you're getting plus money right now, generally speaking on the Cowboys under nine and a half because they've just been you know, their America's team. As you know, there's a lot of excitement build thing. They did some you know they drafted see that are really
good draft ceedee Lamb kind of fell to them. So yeah, they've got an exciting offense, and you know, McCarthy, for all his flaws, he is leaving the offensive system in place that worked so well last year under Kellen Moore. So if you do think of it that way, why aren't you kind of feeling the Cowboys under nine and a half considering that the consensus ods at the very least are plus one twenty five.
Six games against the NFC East.
Okay, that's why that's civil as that.
Huh, because they are playing other teams in the division were bad and so if they go six to zero in their division, that's six wins and now all the needst four more wins to get over. So that that's my concern with both betting the under for the Cowboys. Is it Like I mentioned, I think the entire division's bad, So I'm concerned. I'm concerned about you know, bad teams playing bad teams, but I do think the Cowboys are
probably the best of the worst. So I would shade away from going with the under there on the Cowboys. But you know, I wouldn't want to bet. If I had to bet the Cowboys, it would probably be on the over, but I wouldn't like doing it.
Yeah, I have a little bit of a taste on the under just because of the plus money. Because I do think that you know, we've seen enough Division games are just unpredictable. They're not going to go six and zero in the division, right, Like, I mean, maybe they are, but no, no, I think the Eagles obviously can put up a fight.
The Giants played on top. You don't know, you know, who knows what Washington is going to be. Like, I don't like Dwayne Haskins. Their defense is bad, but you know.
But they're young though. Man, that defensive line. They've invested so much money in that defensive line and now they're bringing in I mean last year, I mean they had to have Number one to pick overall coming in. I mean, they've got some you know, Chase Young that, they've got
some really talented defensive linemen. That defense with Ron Rivera there, I wouldn't sleep on that defense later in the year for the Washington football team because I think that And look, I don't like Haskins either, but if he falls in his face, they've got Alex Smith behind him. I mean,
they could lean on a veteran. If things really go sideways and Haskins is throwing four picks a game, they can lean on Alex Smith to come in and spots start for a little bit, and it wouldn't be like he wouldn't be over his head coming in to start a game in the NFL. So talk about a crazy, unbelievable cap to that story if that guy starts one game in the NFL. So I don't hate that team. I just I think they're probably two years away.
Though no, I completely agree.
But again, you know, I'm more talking about them, not even with their over under, but just whether or not can they somehow show up on that game against the Cowboys, you know, at home, especially you know Ron Rivera. Let's not let's not completely discount the motivational factor Ron Vera obviously dealing with cancer. You know, the team, yeah, could rally and again it's a divisional game, you don't know necessarily, but especially we talked about new you know, they've all
got new coaches basically coming in. It's not except that he goes you don't that's not what you want basically on this season. So yeah, to me, I've put a little bit, given the plus money on the Cowboys under, but you're more on the Giants under that. I don't mind that bet either. That would be the second pick.
Yeah, that's I'm gonna bet that the Giant un I'll play that. I'll bet that.
All right, let's move here to the NFC North. You know, you've got the Packers who won thirteen games last year, made it to the NFC Championship game with an over under of nine. It's just towards the over. Vikings also an over under of nine. That's just a little bit towards the under. The Bears at over under.
Eight, and the Lions over under at seven.
I see a lot of six and a half's out there, but it's you know, Lions over under seven.
Anything you like here in the NFC North.
All right, So, a couple of years ago, the then Oakland Raiders got incredibly lucky with one score victories, and everybody bet under the next year because regression happens things come back down to the mean. This is the same thing's gonna happen with the Packers. Yeah, the Packers had so many one score victories last year.
Eight and eight to one in single possession games.
They lucked their way into a couple of crazy wins against I mean, they beat the Bears what was like thirteen whatever, thirty to ten whatever. It was that ridiculous opening night game where they didn't score. And yet the Bears are quarterbacks by a pathetic quarterback, so they couldn't actually score anything. So like, I mean, I think the Packers are going to be in for a long year. They didn't invest in the wide receiving core the way that they should have. They used a first round pick
on Jordan Love. They added a whole lot of drama into their locker room for no reason. I think the quarterback and the coach hate each other. Packers under nine wins is I think a very good play.
Yeah, I tell you where my trouble is. And again you look at like their Bethagoray and whatever, you know, their window it was like eight and a half, right, like exactly why we talked about it last week with the Chargers right, the Chargers were terrible in one score game.
Do you kind of reverse that and it goes really well? And you brought up the Raiders as well. This is really tough.
I mean I completely get it. Like, I don't think I can bet under. Like I part of me thinks that Aaron Rodgers and I've used the term several times in our fantasy podcast, will give the metaphorical middle finger to everybody this year. And he doesn't really have the weapons to do so. Right, He's got Devanta Adams and then I guess his second receiver is Alan Lazard, who I like, you know you've got mbag in college, right.
I mean the bottom line is he part of part of me thinks he's just gonna be so mad this entire year that he's going to kind of recapture the Fountain of youth. Now that is not the type of thing that you bet on, obviously, but it's something where man to go eight and eight.
It's it's tough.
It's not something that I completely love necessarily. What about the Vikings here, you know, they they've got the same over under, They've got kind of this this. You know they obviously you know Kevin Stefansi's gone, but Gary Kubiak is there. It's probably gonna be roughly the same offense.
They trade away Stefan Diggs. Their defense has been a little crazy, but their defense always plays better than I feel like it should necessarily coming in Obviously, they've got Daniel Hunter and they just you know, got in Gatway, so they're kind of rebuilding. What do you think about about the Vikings over under nine?
See? The reason why I would stay away from the Vikings is because if you talk to book makers and you say, okay, who gets the biggest home field advantage, who gets the biggest spike, the Vikings are one of the teams that gets nearly you know, three and a half or more in terms of what the book makers think going to Minnesota, how tough it is to play at Bank of America. So without fans being there now we're still working out what level of crowd noise you
can pipe in and what right. But I think it's a huge deal that the Vikings aren't playing in front of fans, and I think that that makes their season almost unplayable because you don't know what they're gonna do. If this was a typical year, I would say they're gonna run the rock. They're gonna ask Kirk Cousins to do a little bit more each year and not have him do a ton, and he's shown that he has the ability of making big throws and making big plays.
But I would stay away from this simply because I don't know what this team's gonna look like at home, and if there's no home field advantage, that number basically is set for a team that's gonna play well at home, and I'm not so sure the Vikings are gonna play well at home.
Yeah, I definitely want to dive into that a little more in terms of how it affects your feelings on the over under for both the Saints and the Seahawks, two teams that you know have huge home field managers.
We'll get to that in a minute.
Any feeling either way, any lean either way, or just a total stay away.
I would stay away. Yeah. I wouldn't go anywhere near the Vikings this year simply because I don't know what they're going to look like at home. And nine is a difficult number, because you talked about that last week talking about the AFC. The ten is really difficult. Ten and six is a hard number to get to and going nine and seven, or you know, maybe you bet it and you hope to get a push on it. If you bet the over and you hope to you know,
hope they win nine. But I just again, without knowing what their home field is, they're going to look like their home field performances will look like. I don't think you can accurately gauge what a Viking year will look like this year.
Yeah, how about the other two teams? Any lean whatsoever? You get the Bears at over under eight.
Now from what I saw, if I remember correctly, I'm trying to look back at my older notes, I think they might have been at eight and a half at one point. I think money came in on the under. The Lions have kind of bounced back and forth between six and a half and seven. They're kind of a frisky team, given that their offense at least really opened it up last year before Matthew Stafford got hurt. They were in all those games in the beginning of the
season before I went down. Do you have any lean either ran the Bears over under eight or the Lions. Let's call it over under seven. That's the consensusize, but there are plenty of six and a half's out there any meaning on either of those totals.
If you want to trail the professional money, the professional money is on the Detroit Lions. There is a ton of hype in the professional betting circles on this new offense, the arm of Matthew Stafford, and like you mentioned, a bunch of one score games they lost last year. So the over on the Lions is an extremely popular play here in Vegas with the professional sports gamblers to put up at least an eight and eight season, And frankly, I don't hate it. I mean it's, yeah, I understand
the logic, and it's a big year for Stafford. It's a big opportunity for him to put up to some big numbers. So over on the Lions, yeah, I mean it's juiced pretty heavily towards the over, because yeah, I imagine it's coming in.
I just it's their defense man like their offense. I like, you know, I do like Stafford. If the ore bubble, if they if they are going to employ you know, letting him, you know, toss it downfield much more than you do. They've got Galladay, They've got Jones, I don't mind. Danny Amandola might be my seven year old's favorite player.
T J.
Hockinson obviously dealing with the ankle injury, but he's really talented. They just gave Decker that the big money on the offensive line, so you know, that's okay. The defense for me, I don't know, man, They got no pressure, no turnovers.
Last year they traded Darius Slay, They've added Jeff Akuda.
That's what kind of you know, I understand trailing sort of the sharp money for me though, that one of the reasons I just you know, I don't know their defense really, it's what wears me.
Patricia's you know, coaching first job at this.
I totally agree with that. They've got it and he knows it too, and that's why they drafted you know, Akuda in the first round or as they did. They know they have no secondary whatsoever, so you know, people have thought maybe they might go defensive linemen or maybe they go offense, but they hadn't. They had to go and address something with that secondary, and that's why they went and got him and hopefully he stays healthy.
Yeah, yeah, all right, let's to the NFC South here, Saints are over under ten and a half.
That's a big number.
Bucks are over under nine and a half, Falcons over under seven and a half. That's just toward the under, and the Panthers over under five and a half also just a little bit towards the under. So you know, we can start with the Saints or you can just tell me your favorite bet, because I'm having trouble with the Saints, I'll be honest.
And there's these rumors today.
Obviously, first, you know, maybe we just will go into the Saints because you've got Alvin Kamara who's been dealing with, you know, contract issues. Maybe he also apparently had an epidural shot recently. And now there's all these rumors today about I don't know where they're going to get the cap space for it, but maybe them signing Jadavian Clowney.
So I guess, how do you view the Saints the big number, you've got no fans probably going to be there, although I don't technically know if they've made that decision for the full season or anything like that. But how do you view a team like the Saints is going to be a really good football team going for it? There one last year, big number. Losing kind of the home field advantage a bit.
Yeah, they are losing the home field, but the turf is so fast and they're so This is one of the teams that I think in this year you go with the over, and the reason is because you have the star quarterback, a veteran quarterback, and a veteran coach. They've got all the continuity that you would want. They've got everything you would need. They don't need preseason games, they don't need to practice. They know what to do.
They've got Michael Thomas that they know how to I mean, I Thinkamar is going to come in and play really well. They've got all the weapons. I have no problem betting on the Saints to win this division, to go twelve and four and win this division, and I think that they're probably the team that comes out of the NFC in plays in the Super Bowl. I just think they've got such a huge advantage because they don't have to worry about implementing anything. It's just trying to pick up
where they left off last year and keep going. So adding Cloinney would be great. They get more defensive pressure, get more edge rushing. I think, get after the quarterback, and they're gonna need it with some of the quarterbacks in their division. But I like the Saints on the over. Yeah.
So Matt and I are you know, we chat offline, you know, even when we're not doing these podcasts. And I was in this Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association cool draft several months ago where we got to draft our wagers, so you can do it on player props or you could do it on odds, and I went with a
little more risky strategy. I had the first of our all pick and my first pick of any bet I could take was the Saints at ten to want to win the Super Bowl, because this is a team, in my opinion, that is just absolutely built.
This is the year. I mean, this is it.
They are just forfeiting their cap, you know, space for future years.
This is their year. I like them a lot. I agree.
I'm personally not concerned necessarily about the crowd noise. Again, it is a fast turf, but again, they don't need anything. I love the addition of Manual Sanders. I mean, everybody, all of our fantasy guys tease me about them.
I love it.
I think that's the perfect edition that you need, right now a safety valve for him. Get a little help off of off of Michael Thomas.
Yeah, and then tre Quon Smith.
Is apparently having a really really good camp, So they could be really exciting.
And defensively they're solid.
And remember they got injured down you know, Sheldon Rangets I got injured down the stretch last year with their defense. Talk to me about your bucks, Your bucks, I say, Brady and yours are.
So here's here's my philosophy. They're gonna be a playoff team. Okay, they're gonna win ten games. I bet them over nine and a half. I think they win ten games. I know ten and six is difficult, but I think they do win ten games. I think their their schedule sets up well for them to go ahead and win ten games. I don't think they win a playoff game. I think they lose in the playoffs. And I think they're gonna have you know, Brady is gonna be Brady. They're gonna
put up good numbers. Gronk. I think he's gonna have a big red zone year. I think he's gonna catch a bunch of touchdowns. I think you're gonna see Brady throw for a big number I think you're gonna have. I don't think Leonard Fournette does anything for this team, except for if they actually signed him because he's good at pass blocking. There's something really wrong with that for a guy who was a top five pick in the NFL draft four years ago. So that's not great. But
I think they like Ronald Jones a lot. I'm a little concerned about the offensive line keeping Brady upright and keeping him healthy, and I think they've gotta They can't run the traditional Bruce arians hold on to the football for four seconds offense, he'll get I mean we saw with Winston he got killed. Brady won't make it to reach to weak eight. The only thing about their schedule that scares me is how late their buy is. They gotta play a lot of games. I think is twelve
consecutive games before their bye week. Yeah, keeping Brady healthy for that long, I'm concerned about that, but I think they go ten and six. I don't think they want to win much in the playoffs, but I do think they win a wild card.
Yeah, I'm not that you know, Look, I don't think you bringing a guy like Brady at you know, given his age, given his stature, given his skill level, and say, you are coming into this offensive system and you will do things the way Jamis Winston right at it, right, Like, that's just not how it's gonna be. I don't view him as basically being like, Hey, you're gonna hang in there for four seconds and you're gonna wait for this
play to develop. That's not who Brady is necessarily if he doesn't have the line, he's too smart a quarterback.
So yeah, I'm not betting it.
I'm not betting it because it just it seems like such a public play, you know what I mean.
To love what it is. Yeah, it was ten for a little while, and then it came down because the public was betting it up, and then the pros came in on the under.
Yeah, how about you know the Falcons? Do you have any lean either way on the Falcons?
You know it's funny. I hear a lot of you guys, and you know more about this space than I would. With the fantasy about Matt Ryan having a monster season, that there's a lot of hype around this offense to put up some huge numbers in Julio Jones is going to do incredible things. So I tailed it all my own fantasies. I mean I drafted Julio Jones in the second round, so I mean I tailed that hype around
around where we are here for this offense. But I just don't know about this defense, and I think the division's pretty difficult for them. So I don't have a play on it per se, But I think there's going to be a lot of points scored for Atlanta.
Yeah, I don't love the over on seven and a half. I do think that their offense is going to be really, really good. I think another year undercutter. I love the addition of Hayden Hurst. I think Calvin Ridley develops really well. They've got twelve of their sixteen games in domes. I mean that's like that's like Matt Ryan's bread and butter. So I do think the offense is going to be get The offensive line is going to be a lot better, and again the defense really is just it's always injured.
You know, every year.
Their defense should be okay if they're you know there, But I don't necessarily know how good of a team they're going to be. Fantasy wise, Yeah, absolutely, get get every piece of that offense that you can get, but I don't love.
Again, they have a tough schedule. It's just not you know, that's a tough division. It's not there.
What about the Panthers out of curiosity over under five and a half? I lean a little bit, I'll be honest towards the under here again, this is something where again as with Brady buying week thirteen here, that's a really long time. This is a new team, as we've talked about, right, this is not the year to have the new coach and the new coordinator and the new quarterback. You know what I mean, Everything is new here, even
Broaden and Robbie Anderson. They drafted all defensive players like throughout the entire thing, so the defense is very young. It's just something where I think it's going to take them, you know, after Luke Kei Lee retired, it's going to take them a while to find their footing offensively and defensively.
And I think, especially with such a late buy a tough division, not a great team, you know kind of what Matt rules sort of the whole thing is he comes in their first year is terrible and then he heaes around Roys.
That's what that guy, dude, He is literally going to come in and burn this thing to the round. Okay, that is what he's been told to do. That's why he took the job, because he wanted to come in. They're gonna stink, They're gonna be I mean, I got an argument with somebody about the Raiders in Week one and the Raiders are favored by two and a half points, and they're like, how in the world the Raiders favored. I'm like, do you realize what Matt Rule is gonna do?
They have Teddy Bridgewater. They're gonna run McCaffrey into the ground like he is going to be so tired by the end. He'll be a great fantasy guy because his usage rate's going to be through the roof. But that's it. I mean, that's all they've got. I mean they've lost leadership, like you mentioned with Keith Lee retiring. They don't want to win football games. They want to be right back where they were last year. They want to be right
back at the top of the draft. They want to be right there restalking because it's all about year three and four for Matt Rule. This is a wash of a season for the Panther. They have no desire to be competitive if they win four games. I will be floored if they win four games. I mean maybe I'm lower on Bridgewater than other people, but new quarterback, new system in COVID, with the with the mantra to come in and do a complete rebuild. Yeah, they're gonna be bad. Really Yeah.
I do like Bridgewater personally as a quarterback. I think he's a competent NFL quarterback. I think they have a lot of interesting pieces. As you said, offensively, you know, obviously McCaffrey, I love DJ Moore, I like.
Robbie Anderson generally speaking.
Curtis Samuel apparently has had a little bit of a rough camp, but he's, you know, kind of talent.
They could do things offensively, but there's just no way. There's just no way when you're bringing in back.
They, like you said, nobody is expecting this team to put up all that much of a fight. You've got, you know, no fans, there's gonna be no juice. They they've got so long before they're gonna get in. So to the extent there's a play, there are two plays. I guess I like a little bit. I lean towards the Saints over as you do, and it sounds like you're with me here.
Yep.
I like the I like the Panthers under to be honest, five and a half. That's a play that I've I've made already, and I'm feeling pretty common. It's just really difficult this look.
At that role at at Temple year one in Baylor in year one and.
Look three and twenty one, I believe is his record.
He just kicked every kid out. He just went through the He's like, you're gone, You're gone, You're gone, You're gone. He just weeded out the entire team and replaced them with his own recruits. So he's gonna do the same thing where he wants young kids, as you mentioned, drafted young with it with the defense. He wants to bring in guys who I've never played in the NFL, who are going to look up to him and go like, Okay, guy, I'm here to play for you. He's a big about
like this is my guy type of coach. And so anybody, any veteran left over, any guy on the tail end of his career, you should probably just like start planning on playing for somebody else next year, because you're not gonna be there after this season.
Yeah, I like it all right.
Let's go to our last division here, NFC West forty nine Ers. Again another high over under. Obviously, they made the Super Bowl over under ten and a half. Just a little bit towards the under. Seahawks over under nine and a half also, du justed a little bit towards the under. Ram over under eight and a half also just a little bit towards the under, and the Cardinals over under seven just a little bit towards the over. So what do you like here?
This isn't really interesting division, right because you got continuity all over this division. You got Pete Carroll and you've got Russell Wilson. You got the team that went to the Super Bowl last year in the forty nine ers. I mean, heck, even the Cardinals of continuity. Really, I mean it's year two of Kyler Murray Cliff Kingsbury. But they, I mean, they're gonna keep building on what they're building. I love the Cardinals. I mean, maybe I'm just a
really I like Cliff Kingsbury a lot. I love the swagger. I'm a big Kyler Murray fan. And the fact that they got DeAndre Hopkins. I mean, you kidding me. I think Christian Kirk might have a good year coming up here. I think they're gonna run the ball well. I mean, the fact that they were able to trade David Johnson and flip him into what they got, I mean, it's just for I mean, they had, they had a killer off season. So I'm on the over for the Cardinals.
I don't think anybody wants to play these guys. Their defense needs to get much better. I understand that, but I think Murray's going to be a real problem to stop in the NFL, and having Hopkins to throw to, He's gonna stretch the defense. I'm really excited to watch the Cardinals and then the forty nine ers are gonna be really interesting. That numbers is too large. Everyone's saying
that Garoppolo is killing in a camp everyone. Everything that I'm reading from the media in San Francisco is that, you know, Jimmy Garoppolo is just spinning the ball really well and looks totally different this year and really competent. After losing the Super Bowl, he wants to prove that throw he didn't hit won't happen again, right, But I think the numbers is a little bit too steep for me to go down. And then I mean, everyone loves
Russell Wilson. I guess if I had to play in this division, it probably would be on the over for the Seahawks, simply because of the continuity with Pete Carroll. But the defense is a question for me when it comes to the Seahawks. So Wilson, I think is gonna have a big year. I just don't know if that means ten wins. That seems like a really big number for the Seahawks.
The Seahawks.
The thing about the Seahawks is, and it's probably just because of Wilson. Now, I can't imagine how good they might be if they just let him do his thing right off the bat instead of doing like run on first down, run on second down, third and seven. Okay, okay, by the way, now it's the fourth quarter and we're down by thirteen points. You know, Russ, go do your thing.
Ten wins.
They're not a tenmen team when you look at their entire team, and today there are reports that they signed Josh Gordon. They're not a ten win team.
Okay.
The defense just isn't there. But I'm not gonna bet the under because it's it's Russell Wilson. So this is a team we just talked about it. This is one of the biggest home field advantages, you know, and so what happens to that without that crowd noise?
Well, the rain of the westfield, by the way, is that still I think?
So I can't remember at this point all the time, but go ahead.
No, I just I think the rain in the atmosphere still is factoring in there. It's a cold and damp and nasty place to play football. So that's there. Again, we don't know what the piped in crowd noise is going to sound like. And everyone talks about the fact the way that stadium is built that the overhang keeps the sound down, so maybe pumping in crowd noise makes it more difficult to play there. I still think it's
a hard place to play. You gotta fly all the way across the country to the top corner of the of the West coast, and so I still think that it's not easy to play there, even if the crowd is not going to be allowed in at any point in time. But I just, man, it's hard, it's tough. It's a tough number to go ahead, and lay to have that team win ten games given the fact that their six division games are tough. They're not easy to play.
That's the thing.
By the way, it's CenturyLink Field. I just like that just to make sure my bad on that one. I can never keep up with the.
Well CENTERLNK bought Quest because when I was in Omaha, Nebraska, it was the Quest Center, and then century Link bought out Quest and it became the century Link Center, and then Central Links sold to Chai Center and now it's called the Chai Center. So yeah, it's very hard to keep up with.
The I will just call it the place where the Seahawks play football. So this entire division for me, and I do want to touch on the Rams before in a second, but this entire division, to me, it's just to stay away. Like I do not have a good feel for any of these teams. Forty nine ers are are great. Like you said, you want continuity, that's what you've got. They've also got absolutely nobody to throw the ball to at the moment, and except for George Kittle,
And maybe that's not a huge deal, you know. I mean, obviously the forty nine ers run the ball a ton. They still have most Earth. They still have Tevin Coleman, Jared McKinnon apparently looks fantastic you know in camp. But Deebo Samuel maybe he's gonna play, Maybe he's gonna wind up on the pup Lisy.
We really don't know. At this point.
Brandon Nayuk is dealing with injuries, you know. Even they just signed Tevon Austin now he's on ir Not that that makes that big a difference.
So I get a little word and again, ten wins. We talked about that number. Eleven wins is a real thing. I like it for the Saints four nine ers.
It's something where if I were forced, I would go over, But it's not something where I want to go to the Seahawks.
Same deal.
I don't think they're a ten win team, but I'm not gonna bet against Russell Wilson because he always makes that team better. I don't think he's had a losing year since he's been in the league. Maybe five hundred year, but certainly not a losing year. And the Cardinals, yeah, I don't know, man, I could at one hundred percent.
See this being a holy f year for that offense, like you really could. I love Kenyon Drake.
I can't tell you, and again, I'm a fantasy guy. I can't tell you how I was when Drake started bawling out in Arizona and that they kept him because I have loved Drake's talent every year. I've called him a sleeper in fantasy with the Dolphins. Unfortunately, Gates just like wouldn't let him go. I love Drake there. I love the addition of DeAndre Hopkins. Look, Larry Fitzgerald is
still there, you know what I mean. They have been better on the offensive line, obviously, Christian Kirk you mentioned and Andy Isabella is having a nice camp my school. Yeah, that their offense is going to be really really like exciting.
And I like Murray a lot. I like his talent.
I think, you know, he's gonna definitely be able to improve, just generally speaking as a quarterback. I don't love the defense, and it's a tough schedule and it's just something where I'm like, man, I can see him at seven.
I don't, you.
Know, I could see betting the over because it's hard for me to see them going six and ten or worse. Right, you feel like seven to nine is probably the worst case scenario, so I could definitely see going over. Let me ask you about the Rams, okay, because I feel like I have a completely for no reason whatsoever, and a rational like favoritism of the Rams because I've talked about it with our guys and we've all made the over unders and they're all on the under at eight and a half.
How do you feel right now about the Rams?
All right? So here's the thing about Jared Goff. He plays incredibly well at home. Now why would that be. He plays well at home because he has his coach in his ear and his coach can tell him where to go with the football. And this is his road splits are the most insane road in home splits of any quarterback in the NFL. He plays horrendously on the road. Crowd noise, he can't hear. He can't hear his coach telling him what to do. He's going to be able to hear his coach telling him what to do in
all sixteen games. I am very interested to see what Jared Goff does this year without fans and stands, and what he might look like this season. He might have a good year, and if his receivers stay healthy, he May that might be one of those teams that we're talking about going how are they? Kind of like last year when we were just talking about earlier with the team that winds up winning a bunch of games because
of one score games like the Packers. The Rams might be this year's Packers, bad football team, but a really good record because they get breaks and they get the bounces. If I had to bet it, I would bet the over. And I'm not gonna buy the Curse of Hard Knocks simply because it's two teams on Hard Knocks, not one team this year for Hard Knocks.
If it was one, though, you'd buy it.
You'd be like that, well, there is something to say for because everyone talks about Hard Knock. But if you've heard, like, honest question, have you had a casual conversation about Hard Knocks with anybody yet this year? No, no one's paying attention to Hard Knocks. It's boring. The show stinks this year, by the way. It's boring and confusing. I love watching I still watch it, but I more watch it for the protocols for COVID nineteen and how big of a
distraction it's going to be for the players. So I'm not watching it for the typical like who is that eighth you know, that that seventh round pick who might make the roster, or who's that un undrafted rookie he was trying to make it like all those storylines. I just feel like America is like we're dealing with some real crap right now. We don't care about training cap like we don't have time to talk about hard knocks or watch hard knocks, Like we're dealing with some reality
stuff right now, not reality TV. So but I would not sleep on the Rams given what Jared Goff I think is going to be able to do thanks to his head coach, who I think is a vial. I think Sean McVay is still a very good coach.
I think that's what it is for me.
I think I just I'm like, you know, first of all, they went nine and seven last year, right and even though they had a really tough schedule, they have a bad offensive line, and their offensive line was legitimately like, okay, this guy's down. Let me sign a guy off the street right now to somehow protect our golf. And Jared Goff doesn't do well with pressure, Like we know that towards the second half of the season, especially at the last like five or six games, they switched to a
lot of twelve personnal. That's when you saw Tyler Higby coming on. If you know, from what I've heard of hard knocks and again it no casual conversation, but I've heard there's been, you know, some rumblings that they're gonna stick with this.
And again they lost Brandon.
Cook, so they can go with assuming that Cooper Cupp is healthy. I know he's been dealing with a little bit of something, but you know you're gonna.
Have Tyler Higbye. I love Robert Woods as a player.
I think offensively, I think, you know, you give McVeagh an entire offseason. I think he's gonna be like, Okay, we obviously this, we need to fix this.
What was happening right now? We need to fix this.
Maybe they'll just stick again, Maybe they'll say the twelve personnel work, so we're gonna do it. And Gerald Everett apparently is having a nice camp too, So I think the offense is gonna better, the defense not great.
They obviously still have a couple of huge pieces in Ramsey and Donald and everything like that.
But I love Ramsey in that secondary being hungry on a contract year. So look, you have Aaron Donald. I mean, you've got the best defensive player in the game now, so he destroys offensive lines, he destroys literally.
Though, that's the only guy who I think can get consistent pressure.
I mean it might not matter.
I mean, but they literally may just be like, nah, we're gonna triple team this dude, and we're gonna just see whether or not anybody.
Else can possibly break through and get pressure. That's the only thing. It's a weird defense where you've got these two elite, really elite players and everybody else. For the most part, it is kind of like, eh, okay, pretty good. Though, Yeah that's fair.
They did lose Wade Phillips, don't forget like now as a defensive coordinator, right, I'm not sure how Brandon Staley is gonna, you know.
Do with the defense.
There are question marks. There are certainly question marks. But I do think and again, maybe this is just sort of saying I just have faith in Sean McVay. But I've been talking about it with our guys because you know, we do some over unders. They've all been on the under and they are teasing me because I'm like, no, I'm sticking with.
The over and I feel okay.
But again, last year, really tough schedule, completely decimated offensive line, Tara Goff.
Played pretty terribly overall, and they still went nine and seven. I just think, you you know what I mean, they can win nine games even with this division if you know, McVeigh can sort of spend some time figuring it out.
So yeah, I don't like that their crossover is the NFC East, but it's not that horrible. I mean, they their first road game is at Philadelphia. That's not gonna be easy. They're at Buffalo back to back weeks. But then it gets easier. They play the Giants and the Washington football team.
Those those are victories well done by the way.
Yes, that they're at sam Fran which is hard, but then they play the Bears, the Dolphins. They have a bye before the Seattle Seahawks come to town. That's great. I can't wait to watch the Rams at Tampa. That's gonna be a must see TV game on Monday Night football. That's gonna be monstrous. And then the thing, you know, they got the Patriots coming in. They got the Jets coming in. You know, those aren't easy. I mean, Jets are easy game, but the Patriots are. We'll see what
they look like in Week fourteen. But I just I can find nine wins for this football team just given their continuity and give it again, look at Jared Goff's road in home splits. He's gonna be able to hear his coach without having any crowd noise to worry about. So I think that's a real sneaky factor here for the Rams and how well their offense might perform.
Yeah, and again, this is a This is a bet that I don't you know, it's just towards the under. You know, I think you can get the over at a pretty decent price, and that's where I've been going. I you know, I'll be honest, I don't have much support among my cronies who also started put in the overrunners, but I don't care.
I'm going to go with it.
That's right, And you like your favorite play here is the Cardinals over seven, right.
Yeah, that would be if I'm gonna bet one. I haven't bet it yet, but if if I'm gonna go ahead and bet it that, that's that's what I would bet is the over on that.
Okay, well done. So here is what we have next week. I'm not gonna I'm not gonna drop the details too much, but Matt and I an a couple of you're probably familiar with them, a couple of i'll say, high stakes contest where we're going to be making some picks.
Each week.
We're each going to be talking about at five picks that we're going to want to make. And again, this may be something we're roll over lap. We'll give you more than five, but we're going to give you certainly gonna put our money where our mouth is, definitely with all these picks.
So it's going to be a fun season. We are both really really excited.
About it, and not just because, oh my god, there is football in a week from today.
As we record this.
It is going to be amazing. Matt, thanks for coming on. Are you ready, buddy, You're ready one more?
I'm ready. The Daily Juice audience is ready. We're all fired up and counting down the days. I mean, Unfortunately, the college football this coming weekend is not going to be all that entertaining. It's pretty boring. But once we get through the Labor Day weekend. It's all systems go, and we got real football for both the college and the pro ranks to get rock and it's just going to be so much fun. And I am fingers crossed
that we play Thursday. Please play Thursday. I'm so nervous about not playing Thursday night for the Chiefs and the Texans.
I'm just don't worry about it.
I'm going I'm hoping it's happening, because I'm really I'm hoping. I just have some feeling that Shaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes an't gonna play, and I'm gonna be really upset.
It's gonna be fine, I hope.
So just my friends in Houston are warning me, and I'm getting so scared.
So let's hope you take that negativity, you throw it out the window. But Daily Juice, yes, go listen to it seriously.
It's great. Matt does a fifteen minute.
Podcast available for you every morning, breaking down his best bets of the next day. It is really entertaining. It is really good, and Matt's been doing pretty well of late, I'll be honest.
Last of late.
All right, all right, so anyway, we'll be back next week breaking down our Week one picks. Do not forget betting pros dot com slash Chiefs one oh one. Take the Chiefs. Getting one hundred and one points doesn't matter. If Patrick Mahomes players, you're gonna be safe up to fifty dollars.
We're gonna be
Back again, as I said, next week, so we'll talk to you them, sad