Kansas, Villanova, North Carolina Duke to go to the National Championship Game.
Who should we pick? Let's go talk to the pros.
Welcome into the Betting Pros Final four preview. Here we have a fantastic guest with us, Mike Coutrie from the FTN Network, following him on Twitter at Mike Coutrie CBB. Mike does outstanding work. I've been following for a long time. He is the perfect person to come in and tell us who to pick, sides, totals, and props for the Final four. It's a fantastic final four that is headed towards a great, great title game. Mike, thanks so much for joining us here today. How you doing I'm doing great.
Thanks for having me on, Mike.
I'm a huge fan first and foremost, but yeah, I'm excited to talk some hoops. It's Final four times, so let's get into it.
Uh, You're the perfect person to have on because you can give us then you can also talk about the lines and the picks. All your picks there on FTN are fantastic killing it as always. I want to start with the reaction from the Elite eight. So it appears, Mike that we had what everyone wants with the general public wants, which is upsets early, a couple cinderellas, and then the clock strikes twelve and we move on to
get the top teams here. So what was your quick reaction here, Saint Peter's Miami, those teams stepping aside here on the Elite eight?
Yeah, so I guess up until the final four, it's been kind of absolute madness, like March madness implies, and which makes a tournament fun.
Right.
We had my own new Jersey guys that are close to my heart, Saint Peter's, which is funny because I kind of live, you know, maybe five to ten minutes from Jersey City, so I usually catch maybe two or three Saint Peter's games a year live.
And I went through a couple of games this year.
I like to see them play Iwona and the other teams in the MAC, and watching them, the last thing that came to my mind is is this.
Team to be an Elite eight team?
I didn't think they would even be in the tournament conversation, But of course March is about getting hot at the right time, and that's what Saint Peter's did, and they made that magical run to the Elite eight, and you know, unfortunately the hot shooting on offense came to an end against UNC, and we get a you know, a well known the UNC targical team in the in the final four.
And it's kind of funny because you know, all these upsets kind of happened throughout the Sweet sixteen to the Lait eight, but we somehow snuck in these blue blood programs into the final four that you know, everybody, everybody sitting at home kind of knows the names of the Nova's, the Kansas of course, Duke In the Coach K's last ride, and then and you know, the perfect storybook endings where they get Coach K's revenge spot against UNC, who kind
of ruined his last night at Cameron Indoors. So so yeah, it's it's kind of been a it's crazy, but it's setting up for a perfect ending to a great season here. So so yeah, it's nothing to hate from the college basketball junkie perspective. It doesn't get much better than this.
Oh, it's fantastic and it's funny. Like you said, the tournament has been madness. I feel like with my reads, some of them were on some of them were way off. One of them I was way off about was unc But we'll get to them. Second. I want to start with the first game here, which is going off at six point nine on Saturday, Villanova and Kansas. Now, right now, Kansas looks like it's favored by four, four and a half depending on where you're getting it over under, pretty
steady at one thirty three across the board. I guess my first question here is how much do you think Justin Moore affects this Villanova team. I remember Mike looking back, had a question about whether we thought Villanova could make the Final four in January, and at the time what I was saying is Villanova has the same profile at that time that the other two national championship teams did with Jay Wright, with the exception of tremendous two point efficiency.
It wasn't quite there, but it has come around. They've played fantastic but only a six man rotation and now know Justin Moore, So quick reac here, Villanova Kansas. How do you see this one going here? First game six or nine on Saturday.
Yeah, So the Justin Moore is the injury is tragic and it's unfortunate because he's an outstanding player and he's very important to the roster. I think the line probably would have been more towards the two, maybe one and a half area, if he was actually playing, but unfortunately he went down with the Achilles injury. Nova is not that deep to start with, but to me, depth is
a little overrated in college basketball. I mean, obviously foul trouble and injuries death comes into into into play, but I mean, these guys are in the best shapes of their lives. All these guys can play forty minutes if that to me is not that big of a deal death wise for Villanova here, but justin Moore, from a talent level, it's a big It's it's an.
And lost for this team.
So the way kind of Nova kind of stacks up against Kansas, and to me, they fit the similar profile, kind of like the Miami team that Kansas just played. They're a little more disciplined than Miami and they play a little more physical than Miami, but they are very perimeter oriented like Miami was. They're very undersized like Miami was. They don't really have a true center. Eric Dixon kind of sixty. He's kind of undersized, for the center position. They pick and roll you to death. Nova is very
outstanding in their pick and roll. They're ninety seven percent tile in the country and pick and roll offense per Synergy, and they like to create a lot of mismatches on the perimeter. And what makes them unique is when they do create these mismatches, they like to post up their guards. So you see Justin More not in this game coming up,
but him Colin Gillespie, Ko Daniels. They kind of try to bully their opponent down in the post, which is not really much teams are used to defending, so you really need size to defend those god in the post. And what Nova kind of kills you is when you do overhelp. They have shooters everywhere they pass out during the three ball. They kind of living by what they live and die by a three point ball, which makes
them a little bit variant in the tournament setting. But like you said, this team profile is great as far as having the guards to make a run like we just saw to the final four on the Kansas side, I do think that they do have the size that
can match up with the with the Nova guards. We just saw their best defender, Dwan Harris get put on Campbell Gusty in the second half when Mugussi at fourteen in the first half, where Kansas was, you know, majority switching throughout the game, but they'll self ended up having him chased around Augustin in the second half and limited only four points in the second half. And we just saw Kansas kind of just destroy Miami in the second half.
Kansas has a lot more size, especially down low, and David McCormack, who could have a big game here against Villanova, and I just think that there's just too many paths to victory for this Kansas team against the shorthanded the Villanova team. You have McCormack inside, you have the length on the wings. And then another thing to mention about the Nova defense is that they're very switchable and they like they're actually ranked fourteenth nationally enforcing isolation situations for
their opponents. So you really need very good individual scorers. And to me, the difference is the emergence of Remy Martin on the Kansas side. He can score in bunches off the bench. Boji can score, Christian bron can score, Jalen Wilson's can score. All these guys can score. I think they can stop them enough on defense, so I think Kansas runs away with this late in the game. The thing that Nova is going to do in this game is they're going to really try to slow the
game down. Make this around like sixty possessions where Kansas if Kansas ends up, you know, having Nova dictate the pace sixty possession game. I think Nova has a chance. But if Kansas can get into transition a little bit, make this more in the high sixties position, I don't think Nova can keep up. So I'm going to be on the Kansas side minus four and a half. And I also like a play on the under.
Yeah, great points across the board. So many I want to talk about. First, the Dewan Harris move was so critical, and I'm glad you brought that up because Mike I may have had an under on Cam augusty eighteen and a half points when he had fourteen. I couldn't believe we hit it. I also think that listen, if Justin Moore was there, I probably would be on Villanova because Jay Wright is just excellent in these situations. But like you said, it's a critical situation. McCormack is going to
do things inside. There are so many guards that can attack, and the development of Remy Martin is really underrated. He's been injured all year. You heard him in the interview talk about how he's been down. His teammates had to pick him up. But he is a scorer. He can get buckets, which you saw with Duke against Michigan State and Texas Tech. Those teams couldn't get it late. I think Remy Martin Mike saved them against Providence. They were in trouble, but Martin kept them in that game. So
real interesting points across the board. My other question is about a Boggie All American. Incredible player, absolutely, but I have found that, along with like the Ben maclamore and the Wayne Seldens of the past, these leading scorers for Kansas sometimes are hesitant to go outside of self system. I don't know if that's by design or just by you know, selfishest they're gonna need him to score. He could absolutely really take this game on here, especially like
you said, against a Villanova team that's going to be shorthanded. Yeah.
I mean, he's a great talent and we've been kind of waiting for him to explode throughout this whole tournament and he hasn't yet, So maybe this is the spot final four lights are bright.
Maybe we see a big AGBANGI game.
Yeah, and the under as well, because I do think Villanova has to control the pace completely agree there second game. Full disclosure, Mike, I've had a little bit of a take lock on North Carolina and I have to come around. My argument was for Saint Peter's because I saw what Saint Peters did. Yes, Kentucky, I understand that, Yes to Murray State, but the one that stuck with me was Perdue. I'm like, if they can handle Travion William zach Edy and jayde and Ivey's going to be a top five pick,
why is North Carolina going to be any better? Well, the answer was right now, they're scalding hot. They have great chemistry, they have great balance, the guards outside bay hot inside. So this North Carolina team already has shown us that they can beat Duke. We have Duke favored by four and a half against UNC. I mean, just an apocalyptic game here for Coach k potentially lose to his arch rival twice, or is he going to beat them and get to the finals here in his final year,
the total also won fifty one. So where are you here on a side eight forty nine? Get your popcorn ready on Saturday, Duke Unc as well as the total here around one fifty one and a half.
I mean, honestly, if you're one of those people who think sports is fixed, this is literally the perfect example.
Right.
You have Coach K's last year. He loses to North Carolina in his final home game at Cameron Indoor. Everybody makes a huge deal out of it. But of course, somehow, some way, you can't make it up. He gets matched up against North Carolina in the Final four in a
huge revenge spot. I mean, not even doing any analysis on the game, Why don't you just hammer Duke money line, There's no way that Coach k loses this game, right from a fan perspective, that would be the most tragic thing I think ever in college basketball history if he does. But if we do want to, we do want to break down the matchup here, and like you mentioned, they
they played twice this year and they split. Uh, Duke kind of gave it to him in the first in the first game, but it was more due to poor shooting by UNC. I was taking a look at the shot quality metrics and shot Quality actually had it like a fifty to fifty game, which was surprising to me watching it because I thought Duke kind of manhandle them, but the metrics don't really back that up.
What do I know?
Right, But in the second game, it was close until halftime, and then Duke kind of, you know, put their foot on the brake defensively, and you and See just had their way in the pick and roll. They couldn't guard Baycott, they couldn't guard Caleb Love, and you and See kind of ran away with that. But you know, I watched this North Carolina team a lot this season, and I had the similar take as you did, is I was not high on them coming into the tournament at all.
You know, I thought they had a coin flip game against Marquette and then I thought Baylor would absolutely destroy them, and that did not happen. So I was in the same boat as you. But you know, you look at this UNC team and to me, what's kind of gotten them to this point is that they've they've kind of ramped it up on defense, and you just saw them really locked down Saint Peter's, who was due for some
shooting regression because the way Saint Peter's. Saint Peter's honestly actually statistically was the best defensive fifteen seed of all time, I think per Kenpom if I remember correctly, they graded out maybe twenty seventh or twenty eighth in the country defensively, which is insane for a fifteen seed. Not the greatest team offensively, they just got hot the right time, so they finally cooled off. You and C locked them down
and that game wasn't even close from the start. But you know, like I said, un C has kind of ramped it up in the tournament defensively, but when I look at them throughout the year, they were very undisciplined. Twenty eighth percent tile percentergy and transition defense thirty fourth percent tile and.
Off ball of all defending. So just very undisciplined.
And you know, you give coach k Here a week to prepare for North Carolina against Hubert Davis, who's you know, he's done a great job with un seed, but it's his first year. You know, I'm always gonna side with coach k Here, especially, you know, you have the narrative in the background. Duke has much better individual scorers you have, and they have the size that can match up with you and C Baycott underneath who's their you know, their go to score. Plus the Baycott likes to crash the glass.
You he's a great offensive rebounding team. Duke has Mark Williams and Theo John who can kind of neutralize that. I don't know who guards Ben Carro on the UNC side, they've both matchup. They switched it up between Mannick and Black. Black is a great individual Leaky Black is a great individual defender, but he doesn't have the size or the
strength to matchup with Fan Caro. And then if you put Brady Mannick on him, Manic doesn't have really this foot speed to be able to stay with him in the perimeter or when he faces up in the high post.
Right.
So, I think what this game comes down to, which kind of comes down to any North Carolina game, is how all the guards play. Because the guards have been very inconsistent for I mean, Love and Davis has been in the back or for the last three years or two years, and you know, their consistency is a little up and down. So it really comes down to how
well they play. And you know, I have a feeling Duke is going to show a little same defensive scheme as they did against Arkansas against Jade Notta's ice, the ball screens try to get it out of their hands. They just have to make sure they don't lose Mannick, who is absolutely sniper when you lose him defensively, and he's had a great tournament so far. But you know, I think they can do a good enough job neutralizing
Baycot down low, neutralizing the guard play. And then the X factor to me for this Duke team throughout the tournament has been the emergence of Jeremy Roach at the point guard spot. He's kind of lost minutes to AJ Griffin and Trevor keer Peels throughout the year, but he's been outstanding and really the point guard that Duke's been looking for all year. Over the last few weeks and during March, and he's bring their offensive ceiling way hot,
much higher than it was before this tournament even started. So, you know, because of the narrative, the way Duke matches up, I don't see them losing this game. So I'm even gonna lay the points and take Duke four and a half. But I do from a total perspective. I do think that both offenses are going to have a lot of success, so I'm going to be on the over as well.
The point about Roach is fantastic. He started in this torn and I feel like it was a brilliant move by Skrzyzewski and the coaching staff. He has gone thirty five, thirty seven, thirty five and thirty five minutes just playing massive minutes just to give you an idea. Only hit thirty minutes in a one of the prior twelve games for Duke. And what he's done Mike, I think has put every Jenga piece in the right place. He's had
five assists two of these games. Getting assistant college basketball folks, unless you're Chris Paul Backway farest not easy to do. But everyone now is in a role and I think that's critical. And you saw the window to close do To beat Duke, I believe has closed. You need to make shots at the end of games. Michigan State and
Texas Tech could not do that. What Michigan State did a couple of years ago to Duke when they had Zion and Reddish and all those guys is he They were able to get a lead on them so that Duke had the pressure. Once Duke took the lead there, I think it's a totally different story. The emergence of Roach is great. I like what North Carolina has done. I think the Theo john with Mark Williams is very underrated because I don't see that North Carolina has that
same depth. Dawstin Garcia left the team. They have Puff Johnson behind him. But Baycott really has to have an absolute monster game, which he did, but he's going to have to keep it going. You mentioned Mannik who's been on fire. He's fifty percent from three point range or close to that in the tournament. That absolutely has to continue.
I want to follow up question on the over under because I remember when it was in New Orleans the last time all three games went under, but the prior time it was in New Orleans, all three games went over the final four in the championship game. So talk a little bit about why you like the over in this particular situation.
Yeah, it's funny, and there is a little bit of a narrative where you know, as the tournament goes on and the games get more tight, you know, teams do play a little tighter and you know, the under is usually the spot, but I think Vegas fixed that into the lines a little bit. I think these these numbers are a little lower than where they should be if you looked on Ken Pom. But you know, you have Duke, you and See. You know that the game is going to be high paced up and down. It was both
times they played. It was high paced up and down. You know, I think there's a few spots offensively that both these teams could have success. If you look at the second half of the last game, Duke really struggled in that kind of middle top of the key pick and roll situation where Mannick would slip and then you had a short roll from Baycott. You know, I think
Dude's gonna game plan a little better against that. But just because of the pace, just because of the matchup problems like Ben Carro and even Jeremy Roach I can give you and see, I think there's gonna be a lot, a lot of points, a lot of possessions, and I will be on the over I know it's a lot of points, but I'm still gonna be on the overside.
And of course I'm with you. I'm with you, Mike on both picks. So now we're looking at Kansas and Duke. I mean a legendary, legendary matchup on Monday night. If that happens and we're right, where are you going in that game?
Okay, well I have to caveat pick with that.
I have a eighteen to one future on Kansas that I took back in November, So I may be a little biased here, but you know, I just think that overall, top to ballot to bottom talent, Kansas has a little more talent than this Duke team. From top to bottom. They have the size with McCormack. They have kind of dual point guards with Dwan Harris and Remy Martin. Now Dwan Harris is an absolute lockdown defender, so if they need somebody to follow Roach or whoever it is, they
have that person. And then they have length on the wing with kind of a you kind of call a three headed monster with Christian braun Chia Boggy and Jalen Wilson. And they're switchable on defense. I think Bill selves just has so many options that can give any team they play,
but this Duke team specifically just a complete headache. And the one thing that Kansas hasn't been able to figure out all year, And if you go back and look at maybe like Bill Selt's postgame interviews, he was always talking about their ball screen defense and their discipline on
the defensive end. But if that second half of that Miami game, I think they may have found something defensively that maybe they kind of pieced together and Bill self maybe figured something out because that was their one weakness and they absolutely locked down defensively against Miami in the Elite eight. So if they continue to do that throughout these next few games, I think that they should have the advantage over this duke team, and I would be siding with Kansas fantastic.
It would be a great, great matchup on Monday Night. Last question, Mike, then we'll get you out of here player props. Of course, we've covered sides, we've covered totals. I'm on some unders in this Villanova game against Kansas because I do think that Jay Wright is going to be able to control pace, try to increase variants here in a lower scoring game because he shorthanded a bogie under. I think he's at sixteen and a half is what
I'm looking at. What about what are some props that have caught your eye here heading into the final four.
So it's funny you mention that because me and you have the exact same thought in this game. Yeah, so Baji was definitely one that I looked at sixteen and a half. I'm a little afraid because, like we said, there's going to be a game where he where he gets really hot and hits a couple threes, because we haven't seen it yet throughout the tournament. But pace wise, I don't know if this is going to be it. Maybe it's a championship game against Duke, you know, across your fingers.
And it's not this game.
But I thought that's sixteen and a half, I would be on the underside there and then on the Villanova side. I did notice that Jermaine Samuels points prop went up a little bit on draft games. It's at fourteen and a half.
Now.
It's a little scary as well because without Justin Moore, he's going to be a little more involved as uses, he's going to go up in the offense. But you know, this number is probably realistically maybe three, two or three points too high. Jermaine Samuel Samuels throughout the year. I think maybe average twelve points per game. He disappears sometimes on offense if the game's going to be incredibly slow.
I think that's way too many points for him. So I like to dream singles under fourteen and a half points.
Both of them excellent call Samuel's I've I've been hot and I've done well financially with Samuel's over, but the line has adjusted. I agree with you. It's gonna be a fantastic matchup, folks. Mike Couchrie FTN Network, FtM, BETS, FTN, Daly All Things FTN great, great college basketball, Mine great with picks. Can really break it down for you and give you a strong rationale. Follow him on Twitter at Mike Coutrie CBB. Mike, it's been great having you on here.
Final four. We have the blue Bloods. We're ready for a great Monday Night and for your futures ticket. I will roof for Kansas as well. I think that would be fantastic here. It'll doke Kansas matchup and you smoking a cigar Monday Night with a big Fansas win.
I love it.
I appreciate this support, Mike. It's been a blast. So you can have me on any time you want awesome, it is not