It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros. Welcome in everybody to betting pros and is v Joey Pa, Joe Pisapia with me today? Is the wonderful, the one, the only, Mike Randall, and it's all about the NBA.
That's right.
The All Star Break is officially over. And thank goodness too, that dunk contest finally ended. If I had to watch one more dunk missed, I don't know what I would do with myself. But it's time to look ahead to the future. That's right, a little NBA futures. We're gonna look at the Western and Eastern Conference potential winners, maybe a little stab at some finals futures.
Also, I'll look.
At some awards, Who's most improved, who's the MVP. There's nobody better to talk about that within our own betting pros analyst Mike Randall, who could follow on the Twitter machine at Randall rant. Mike, it's good to talk to you, my friend. It's good to see you. And look at us doing a little NBA today.
Joe, weren't we just at Flex drafts? Now we're doing NBA. Time just goes on it's the greatest force in the world. Time goes on. We're here with the NBA, and thank goodness we had games on Thursday. But we got to get over that dunk contest. I mean, I grew up with Dominique Wilkins and Michael Jordan and then we went to Spud Webb and Kobe What was that.
About, geez my Kingdom for Kenny sky Walker. Yes, I mean, that's that's where we're at right now. It was it was the build up to the constantly missing dunks where I just kind of say, no, matter what they did at the end of it, Mike, it was gonna be anti climactic. And you know what, good on Dwayne Wade and I was a Kenny Smith who basically called it what it was. So I'm very proud of those guys who kept it real.
For sure.
The three point competition was good. All Star Game is always All Star Game. It's you know, all shooting, no defense. That's what we expect of the All Star Game. That's fine, But you know, the NBA season right now, obviously, you know we're starting to get to that stretch run. You know, this is the time of year two where you've seen g who're resting maybe rest a little less. And that is always the difficult thing with the NBA is.
Can you stay healthy?
Can you get these guys on the court that you want? And I want to start here at the Eastern Conference. Let's start here with some of your best bets. And obviously, as we're going through some of these, I want our mind everybody. We have all the consensus lines over at
bettingpros dot com. So if you go to betting pros dot com, you can see the consensus for all the things we're going to talk about and all the places where you can find the best odds, whether it be bet MGM or another book, you can go and you can go ahead and place your wagers wherever you want to.
And what's great too, is even if you're a daily NBA better too, you can always check out the prop bet cheat sheet that we have for NBA, just like we had for NFL, which gives you all of the best consensus props, the variations to between our projections and the prop numbers, and where you can bet them. So it literally is the answers to the test. It's an amazing thing that gets produced every single day here.
So you have no excuse to fail.
At the end of the day, you've got to go check out the prop bet cheat sheet at Bettingpros dot com for NBA. But going back to the Eastern right now, how do you see this board right now, Mike, kind of unfolding itself, and where do you want to put your money?
I love the Eastern Conference, Joe, because there are so many teams that are bunched together that could win this There is really not one dominant team. Bucks has been great. I love the Bucks near and dear to my heart. But everyone else now has kind of caught up. And what's interesting is, and I'll get to my long shot in a minute, it's about styles. The best bet for me at this point is Miami. They're around plus five point fifty plus six hundred betting Pros consensus. They have
perfect balance. They are six overall in defensive rating this year, eighth in offensive rating. And if you look at the structure of the team, you have Lowry at point guard. You have Jimmy Buckets who can get a big basket. Bam has come back now from the injury, so they've had other players step up throughout the season. When Bam was not there. Even Max Strus coming off the bench can hit some threes. Tyler Hero, who is the leader
right now for six Man of the Year. I mean, you're talking about a player who two seasons ago in the playoffs was extremely, extremely hot. They have a style, they are not afraid of anyone. They have a great coach and Eric Spolstra. They would go there and battle. And what I like about them is if they get that one seed. Getting the one seed in the Eastern Conference is going to be huge because that two to
three matchup is going to be massive. So what you would like to do is see like a Chicago and a Milwaukee battle it out and then just see them in the finals. I'm not into the nets. I don't like the Sixers trying to piece it together with the process with Harden and beat although Mbats have a phenomenal year. My favorite bet in the East is Miami around plus
five to fifty plus six hundred. I think they have the style, they have the team, they have the balance, and they have the bench to step up and win the Eastern Conference.
And the bench is such a huge component too at this time of the year two because we're getting up there in games. So if guys, do you know, miss some minutes or even miss some games, having that death goes a long way right now to winning that Eastern Conference. And I'm with you about the nets to one hundred percent agreement there. I do not like what's going on. Let's talk go with a long shot in the East.
So if that's your favorite bet, who is the team going to be a little bit further down the trophy might have a shot.
Shout out to Cleveland. And what's interesting here is no one is going to buy Cleveland have plus twenty five hundred plus three thousand on betting pros consensus. Look at what they did at the trading deadline. They bring in Karris Lavert to complement Darius Garland. They have Jared Down, they have Kevin Love. What they have here is very similar in college basketball. We all saw last year that the Houston Cougars made the Final Four with defense and rebounding,
something that's different than what everyone else has. That's what Cleveland has. They have a throwback team with the seven footers. They have the probable rookie of the year and Evan Mobley. JB. Bickerstaff has done a tremendous job with this team. They are young and they are naive coming into the All Star break four out of six all battling injuries here, they've won the last four to six throughout the season.
Garland was injured, Rubio Sexton is gone. Lowry market and who should be back marketIn now makes Evan Mobley have the ability to sort of freelance a little more on the inside market. And had the repation with the Bulls as not being a defensive player. Now that he's with Cleveland and he's bumped down to the three, he's actually been great at getting in the lanes, making steals and deflections.
Also keep in mind, Joe the Calves two and one against Milwaukee this year, two and zero against Miami, one and one against Chicago. They aren't sexy. No one really likes the Calves without Lebron on them. But they have the style, they have a unique way, and it would not surprise me if they had a magic ride here to the Eastern Conference. You're gonna give them to me at plus twenty five hundred. I have no problem with that. I like the Calves as my long shot.
Calves is an interesting long shot, and look, you're not alone too. Have heard a lot of people over this past weekend talking up the Calves who and liking the moves that they've made here and the way that they're playing potentially, So if you like the heat, you have your long shot. We already said the Nets are a bit of a trap. Is there anybody else who's towards the top of this board? I see the Nets a plus two seventy five on the betting pros consensus line.
I see the seventy six or two A plus three fifty.
Are they a trap? Yeah? I don't like the Nets or the Sixers, this whole thing with Kyrie, with the vat they had a fantastic matchup with Milwaukee. I remember going to that game seven last year. They're playing the Bucks. Yes, if Kevin durantz tow wasn't on the three point line, who knows. The Net's good to have won a title last year, but it seems very flimsy. The Nets don't play any defense. Now they're going to try to make
a move forward, but they need a healthy Kyrie. I don't like them, and I don't like the Sixers, and B could be your MVP, but I don't know if the matchup of Harden with MBID is going to win a title. Harden dominates the ball, He's almost gonna have to subject himself to be a facilitator more. And I just don't think in this situation with two alpha dogs, the way they're set up, that's gonna work for me. I understand people like it. They like the big names
stars winning the NBA more than any other league. I get that. I do not like the sixers of plus three fifty. I don't want to deal with that. I don't see why you would not take the heat who've actually had a championship pedigree falling short with a solid team, a much better all around team, a much deeper team with a great coach. Why would you take six ers over them? I don't see it.
All right, Let's head over to the Western Conference, where right now the consensus betting pros line has the Warriors at plus one seventy five. Some other books are DraftKings as at plus.
One to eighty five.
You've got them a little variance there the Suns at plus one eighty right behind them, kind of neck and neck, and there's a big drop off. Then it goes right to the Jazz at plus seven hundred. Now, the Jazz were team last year, you know, played very good defense, really played well together. But you could see there's basically the Warriors and the Suns and then the drop off. So how do you see the Western Conference board shaking out?
Mike? What I actually love with the Western Conference. I don't love what happened, but I like the betting advantage is I'm going to see these Suns drop now that Chris Paul is going to be out six to eight weeks, which is Joe pretty much the rest of the regular season because it's seven weeks until the end there, it's not a totally balanced schedule. So I like the Sun's odds. I think they're going to drop. I think they're going
to come back to the pack. I think they're about a five game lead over the Warriors right now, who are gonna get hot. But when Chris Paul comes back, and listen, he's thirty six years old, he's getting some valuable rest. It is the thumb on his shooting hand. But I think you're going to see the Suns develop here and their odds are going to drop. So I have no problem waiting on them and then getting them at that point. The team that I like the best
are the Grizzlies. John Moran has taken his game to another level. I was saying on Twitter that you should take him over Zion Williamson. I think Morent was just a jump shot away from dominating this league, and that's what he's getting. He is going to be your most Improved Player, and the odds say that it's at minus five hundred right now. But he has a case for MVP. They are great inside with their bigs. They dominate on the boards. Desmond Bain also has a case to be
most improved Player. They are a very sneaky team. Last year they're just squeaking in the playoffs. Now right now they're sitting in a fantastic spot towards the top of the Western Conference. So right now, betting pros consensus has the Grizzlies of plus twelve hundred. We've seen the Jazz before. I understand them. They're a great team. I don't see them making the finals. So the teams I like, Warriors
are going to be the go ahead favorite. I don't like betting the favorite in any situation of a long sho got you go that, I'll take the Suns in a few weeks when their odds dip down. And I also like the Grizzlies with jam Morant because I believe he is good enough to carry this team right to the precipice of that Western Conference Finals. And now I just need one more series. I'll take my chances.
I love it, you know, you and I see the same as like, if you're not getting good money there on the favorites, then you either stay away or you find something else you'd like to bet on. It's funny because I'm looking ahead now at the Championship odds and the Grizzlies are a plus twenty five hundred on the Betting pro consensus.
So if you want to double.
Down your Jama Rant narrative ear for MVP and them going to the Western Conference Finals, I mean, hey, that's an interesting long shot right there. The rest of this board looks like this. The Warriors are plus four twenty five on betting pros dot Com. Then you have the consensus line for the Suns at plus four fifty, and then it goes to the Jazz at sixteen hundred. They are Grizzlies Nuggets. So that's the way somebody's Western teams
shape up in order to win. So when you're looking at finals odds right now, who kind of jumps out to you at the different consensus potentially.
Well, that it's gonna follow a What it's gonna come down to me, Joe, is the way they matched up. Like I said in the Eastern Conference, the nets are going to be in an enviable situation where they're gonna have to go through a ridiculous path to get to the finals. So I'm looking for teams that could match up and have a run. What are the ones that I think you have to look at? And he's kind of like my long shot for MVP. Also, let's not
count out the Mavericks with Luka Doncics. The Mavericks since January first have had one of the best defenses in the NBA. They've been phenomenal and Doncic is making a push for the MVP candidacy over the last couple of weeks. So if you're looking for a long shot to make the finals, besides the ones that I mentioned, what you're looking for is a path. It is really similar to the NCAA tournament, where it's all about the matchups. Forget
what has happened before. If you have a situation where things match up right and you see them going through, that's the team to grab. Doncic has everything you need as a great player. The team is playing defense, they're buying in and they have the ability even though they've lost some players. Is poorzingis gone, they've had injuries. Now it's a hardaway. That's a team who's a real deep
long shot that I think you can look at. So outside of the ones that I mentioned going to the finals, I absolutely think if you want to throw a couple dollars down, take a look at the Mavericks, who are led by a star and have a style much like Cleveland that is against what is traditional now in the NBA.
All Right, would you hedge it all and take you know, take it easy Golden State Warriors at the top of the board at plus four to ten or something like that, and then go ahead and take a little long shot later on as well, or would you just continue to stick with a long shot and play those odds.
Yeah, I think Golden State is at the point where you got to get him now or you're not gonna get him at all.
Clay Tom feels That's why I asked because they're in that four to one range basically right now. So that's why I was curious, would you lock that in and then start playing the board just to have a little bit of share, a little bit of comfort level, I guess, Or do you just say no, you know, let the let the favorite go and just keep playing a couple of the different long shots.
If you want to grab the Warriors, take them now. Their focus for most of the year has been defense in Curry. Now Thompson came back and they've struggled defensively. But I do Joe tend to go with the teams that have styles and have players in certain positions. Come on, Looney inside tremendous, does his role rebounds. They have to get Wiggins going, but they're gonna get it right. That defense now is going to start coming back as the players get rested and get acclimated again with Thompson in
the mix. So if you like the Warriors, I think you grab them now because in a few weeks, like I said, I'm gonna be on the Suns because there's gonna be recency bias. People are gonna forget about them. But what you're gonna watch is Devin Booker become more of a facilitator, McCall bridges become more of a scorer, and you're gonna see this team get better and then you're gonna put a fresh, refreshed and replenished Chris Paul back in there. So if you like the Warriors them,
grab them now. I'd like to wait and grab the Suns in a little bit longer for a favorite. That is all right.
So we've spoken about some of the big names in the NBA. Let's see who the biggest name is going to be this year for MVP. Top of the board right now is Joe Embiid and the consensus betting pros line plus one thirty. Then Nikola Jokich at plus three hundred, Jannis at plus three fifty, so those usual suspects, and then there's your boy John Morant right now plus one thousand,
the consensus lying on him plus eighteen hundred. Over on Fandel too if you're really believe in if you want to get in there, also over on bet MGM two.
We'll be waiting for those lines that come out.
So tell me right now, how do you see the MVP board? How would you sprinkle at chips as it were.
I'm a math guy. You know that. But there is a narrative there is in you it is there is a narrativele educator, yep, but there's a narrative base Joe to a lot of these awards, and I think there's a fatigue factor with a guy like you know, and I love Giannis. He's tremendous, but I think is he gonna get his third MVP in four years, he'd have to be head and shoulders above everyone else, which I don't see right now. Djokic has been tremendous. His statistics,
his value to his team are outstanding. But the problem is the Nuggets right now are in six place. Last year when he won it, they were in third. They're missing a lot of guys, No Jamal Murray, They've had injuries across the board. Michael Porter, I get that, but I think Djoki, as much as he's fantastic, is not going to be able to have his team high enough in over to overcome that. Most people will go Embiid, and I have no trouble if it's Joel Embiid. He's
been fantastic for the Sixers this year. He's carrying them. His player efficiency rating is over thirty one. It's off the charts. No problem with that. I just don't think there's enough value right now with the consensus of plus one thirty. So I really want odds of plus two hundred to better if I'm going to invest the two favorite bets, I like you mentioned them first. John Morant plus twelve hundred. I love the guy. He's a lot
for the most improved player. Do I think that they're going to give it to Jaw in this situation so young in his career. I don't, but he really should get some votes. They lost to the Jazz last year. Four to one is the eighth seed. Right now, they're third in the West at forty one and nineteen. If you're going by who's deserving. To me, Jaw is absolutely top three, and don't sleep on those highlights. They matter.
You've seen the dunks. You saw better dunks from ja Jo in the All Star Game than he actually started the dunk contest. So he's a guy who I love. I don't think he's gonna get it, but it's certainly worth a run because if he gets hot and some other players get injured, he could sneak in. My favorite bet to me is dong It's a plus three hundred. Here's my argument. If we ran the rest of the regular season thirty times, would Dongits win MVP at least twice?
The answer is absolutely yes. Last ten games for Luca thirty five point four points, ten point three rebounds, nine point eight assists while shooting forty nine percent from the floor and over forty three percent from beyond the arc. What does that even mean? Now there's only twenty regular season games left. Here's my question. Philadelphia is thirty five and twenty three, Dallas is thirty five and twenty four, and Biid is twenty nine point six, eleven and four.
Luca twenty seven, nine to nine. If he keeps going and Biid gets hurt Dallas gets hot, why not at plus three hundred. I'll take it, no problem, And you can always put a small unit on that.
Of course, the same logic we're used here on the show and then the baseball season when Bryce Harper was thirty to one. Yes, it was a narrative to be had out there in the media. There was no clear winner. There, there was some fatigue with some other guys, but also most importantly, it's you don't have to go crazy on this.
You just have to put a small number on it now and then as it drops down, this thirty to one can become fifteen to one in just a week's time, all of a sudden, then you can double down on that. And that, to me is always the way to approach some of these because you bring it up and it's one hundred percent right. These awards are media awards, they're narrative driven, and yeah, with Giannis there's definitely a little bit of fatigue factor in there as well. All right,
let's get to maybe most Improved Player. Let's take a look at some of the names on that board right now, anybody stand out to you for this award?
Yeah, I mentioned I love job, but I just want to throw a couple names out here. If you want to go against him, you know, never know injury he had injury early year over.
Yea, he can't make money on him because he's minus five hundred already in the consensus.
Right, So if you're looking to go for a long shot couple here, Desmond Baan has been fantastic as teammates, So if Jah goes out for an extended period of time, look, no, further than Desmond Bain at plus six hundred has been massively improved. And what I love about Desmond ban Joe is he's got like a hit list of teams that passed on him in the draft. And Desmond ban has huge games. Remember that for NBA props against teams that passed on him. It's almost personal. He's been fantastic. So
Desmond being fantastic. Job there for Memphis. Dejonte Murray has been a mini triple double for San Antonio this year has really taken it to another level. He's at plus twelve hundred, as is Darius Garland. So staying with the theme, if you believe in Cleveland as much as I do, Evan Mobley is going to be tough because he's there.
He's take some votes away from Garland. But Garland could absolutely have a massive end of the year leading Cleveland to oh, I don't know, second seed maybe in the East, and could pick up some awards as well. Miles Bridge as I like, and he's had some massive, massive games, including against the Knicks recently, but I put him a step below even though he's the second favorite at plus one thousand. So de Jontay Murray Desmond Bine absolutely guys that.
I like Darius Garland, some people like Anthony Simon's did a nice job with Portland. I just don't know if he can have the end of season that he needs to have for a team like Portland, which is really struggling.
Memphis will travel to Minnesota on the twenty fourth. I was just looking ahead at the prop at Chie sheet to just see what that Bane prop might be.
Right, It's like, oh, is it out already? Let me check that out. It's not yet.
My friends tell me it should be out very shortly, though my imagine would sometime maybe tomorrow. But that's one to already start getting ahead. Listen to Mike Randall and go use the tools, make yourself some cash. So there's your Rookie of the Year conversation two we can have. We can throw that in there. But before we get to the rookie stuff, actually, is there any other award do you have a strong feeling about.
Yeah, if you look at Defensive Player of the Year, it's wide open. I know Rudy Gobert wins it all the time. I just have a feeling he missed about nine games recently. I don't know if he's going to get it again. Giannis at plus three hundred. I mean he's been dominating doing so many different things, the blocks, the steals, and then as Milwaukee gets into games that are blowouts, you really see him his full game on display.
He's not just scoring. So if you think there's Giannis fatigue for the MVP of the Year, how about Giannis again? For Defensive Player of the Year. Draymond has some issue with Gobert. They compared him. He was doing the play by play with the All Star Game and he said, I don't want to be compared to Gobert. We're totally different guys. So Draymond has the motivation to sort of take this award away from Gobert, but I just don't know if he's going to be back healthy enough in
order to get it. So my dark horse for Defensive Player of the Year is McCall bridges at plus fourteen hundred. Joe, He's been great on every wing. He's been scoring more this year too, which is bringing more attention to him
as a legitimate defensive Player of the Year. Has been locking down for the Suns, and now with Chris Paul out, he may get a little bit more publicity for being that player, the well rounded player that he is, because he doesn't always because it's usually Booker and Paul may be an opportunity here, so a dark horse for me. McCall bridges love him here. Defensive Player of the Year
plus fourteen hundred. If you don't want to go with the favorites, and if you have to pick a favorite, I go with Giannis at plus three hundred over go Bart plus one twenty five. Now, betting pros consents, is not a lot of money there to be.
Made, all right, last one here, let's go to Rookie of the Year. We mentioned the Cleveland Cavaliers in What You Like Them. Evan Mobley's been a big part of that and he is minus eight thirty five right now, so not a whole lot of movement there. It seems like this award might have gotten away. Is there any way anybody else could be considered for this besides Mobile at this point?
Yeah, it's not gonna be Kate Cunningham because Detroit is not really winning a ton of games, and he's been in and out of the lineup with injuries. So he's at plus twelve hundred. He's the third on betting pros. I don't like him. You know, Josh Getty has been outstanding here with an injury. Is Shae gilds Ers Alexander he's been putting up. I think he put up three
consecutive triple doubles before the All Star break. So if something were to happen to Mobiley and Guiney continues to do this triple double machine is what he is, you could definitely go there. Long shot for me is Scottie Barnes at plus twelve hundred. They want Scotty Barnes to take over the point guard role Toronto. And what I like about the Raptors here with Nick Nurse is he plays his starters a ton of minutes. He is one of the few coaches in the NBA that will stay
with those starters. So Barnes is going to get opportunities to make plays. Van Vlietz had a great first half, but he was banged up a little bit. So in terms of a pathway, if something were to happen to Mobili, if Barnes is really given the keys to the offense, you know he's going to see more minutes than anyone on this list, and he absolutely would have a chance to perform, but it's a long shot because Mobiley is just so special. I don't know how he fell the
number three for Cleveland, but God bless him. They got themselves a great player, a guy who can pass, a big man who can defend, who's only going to get better at age twenty one.
Yeah, it feels like Mobley's the guy, so but who knows. You never know in the last twenty games. Obviously some things can certainly change. But my goodness, it seems like that shit might have sailed potentially. But lucky for you, we're here every single day given you a content. Make sure if you haven't already, subscribed to the Daily Juice podcast with our own Matt Parolet, because Matt Parolt's given you NBA MLB eventually whenever it comes back. He's given
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