It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros. Welcome in, everybody to betting pros. It's me Joey, p Joe, Pisa, Pia. We got a great show for you today. The NBA Finals is beginning and we're gonna walk you through it with one of my favorite people. He is the host of in This League podcast network. You can also find his work at Line Star as well, hosting all their podcasts and so much more. He's the one, the only
Scott Bogman. Bogman, Welcome to the show, my friend. I'm ready to talk a little NBA with you.
Thanks for having me. Yeah.
Man, this has been an exciting playoffs and I know people are talking about whatever team wins is gonna need an asterisk.
I don't like that narrative at all.
I think that's dumb because of all the injuries, because of you know, all the injuries, so but you know, staying healthy is part of it. So I'm excited for the Suns Bucks Finals. I think it's going to be a great one.
And that's what we do have. We have the Phoenix Suns and the Milwaukee Bucks. Here. We got Yannis hopefully healthy enough to make a difference. We're going to get into that and a whole lot of the other narratives. But you know, I forget the asterisk because I think that's always a cop out nonsense. You get there, you get there, That's what it is. But I mean, these
are two teams right now. Yeah, I would say both efficient offenses, good defenses, and at the end of the day, I mean, like, the teams that get to the finals are the ones that play both ends of the court. Did not every team does that? With Gwen gun nuj nudge, we know that. So are you surprised at all that this is how it ended up?
Not really? I mean specifically after the injuries. I mean, you know, when Kuhi got hurt, I thought that the Clipper series for the Suns was going to be a tough one. But Kuhi got hurt, he wasn't able to play that series. So I was not surprised that the Suns buzzed past them the Bucks. I think a lot of people were surprised that they got past the Nets.
I just think, really, you know, Harden getting banged up and Irving going down in that series obviously hurt them a ton, But I think that was just really a lack of experience together with those guys before that. So it's not surprising to me that the Bucks are playing the Suns in the playoffs at this point.
I think I would have expected the Bucks a little.
Bit more than the Suns, you know, starting the playoffs, but they've burned through the Lakers, and after they burned through the Lakers, I knew they had a chance.
So it should be a really really exciting one.
I know everyone wanted to anoint the nets, you know, and all of that, but I think you've been going up a great point, which is basically, you know, it does take kind of time for these things to gel together.
And we say that Chris Paul walks right into Phoenix and takes him to the final.
Well, Tom Brady, I mean, that's kind of crazy, but.
More often than not it is the former. More often that there's a little transition to help me back again together trying to you know, do it all again. If Kyrie Irving will be back, necessarily we'll figure that all out. But now that we're looking at these two teams, what's your assessment in terms of momentum Before we go breaking down, we are we're going to talk about Game one. We're going to go through Bogman's picks to win it all.
We're going to talk about the wagering prop best the MVP, and a few other things too, including how many games this series is going to go and how he thinks about that. But when you're looking at the assessment heading into the finals, momentum, health, obviously both things kind of loom large right now. Who do you think kind of, you know, has all that stuff working for them a little bit more?
I think the edge has to go to the Suns because you know, Ga is doubtful to play Game one. You know, they think he's going to come back in the series because it is more of a day to day thing. I know, our guy doctor Chow has talked about how it's you know, it looks like he might be out for the playoffs and maybe that's the case. Maybe they're just talking it up and all that because it's kind of that hybridxtension seem pretty bad when it happened.
But I think you have to give the momentum to the Suns because they're complete, They got more rest that they're coming in without having to change their dynamic. And I know Chuck you know, Charles Barkley said on that he thinks the best thing for the Bucks was Shea going down because they move the ball more efficiently, more goes through Middleton than GA.
You know.
So I get that, but that is a big time adjustment that you don't want to be making in your final seven games of the season. So I think that the momentum side has to go to the Suns.
All right, some key numbers here from betting pros before we jump into things here. Look, the Milwaukee Bucks have lost only one home game this postseason, there's seven to one, but they lost four games on the road. They're five and four. On the flip side, the Phoenix Suns are six and two on the road and six and two at home, so they've been good everywhere. And Phoenix has posted one hundred and sixteen and a half points per game at home and one hundred and fourteen on the
road this year. So look, is Boggin's kind of saying, it seems like right now Phoenix is the favorite. But let's go through this and kind of figure out where we want to place our chips here when it comes to the NBA Finals. And let's start here with Game one. It is in Phoenix right now, the Phoenix Suns are
six and a half point favorites. In terms of the spread the money line, you got plus two zero five on the Milwaukee Bucks Bucks minus two fifty for the Phoenix Suns, and the over under on this game is two nineteen and a half. So when it comes to game one here right out of the gate, what about these numbers kind of makes you want to go to a certain spot. Obviously you have to lay a ton of money here. Phoenix is a heavy favorite in game
one at home. No Jiannis all of those factors, But what do you think about the over under and the spread because it seems like there might be some possibility to make some money there.
Yeah, I feel like I'm gonna take the under on this. And you know, I know you said these teams are both good on both sides, but they're both one and two in defensive efficiency during the regular season, So I think taking the under.
What is it two nineteen and.
A halfeen and a half.
Yeah, yeah, I think I take the under on game one.
This is also going to be a weird uh, you know, I guess tone setting game as well. I don't know, I definitely wouldn't you know. I think the Suns are gonna win, and that's you're giving away too much to make money there, So I'm not gonna bet the straight money line. I think I would take the Suns minus to six and a half. I think the atmosphere is gonna be insane here in Phoenix for Game one. The
town this is a basketball town. I've lived here for over twenty five years, and this is a basketball town because the Suns were first and this is the second finals they've ever made, first one since nineteen ninety three. That people are excited. There's a buzz in the air. It's gonna be great. So I think that I'm gonna take the Suns minus is six and a half if
I'm betting on the game. But I think my favorite bet is probably the under for tonight because they're gonna kind of be playing it out, you know, feeling each other out. This is a it's gonna be I think there's gonna be a long series and I think this is gonna be a fun game one.
The last time the Suns fans were this excited probably was going back to those Charles Barkley, Dan Marley, kJ Kind of days. Those were some fun teams for sure.
The Bozeman was hitting big shots and not just a guy on Twitter, you know.
Right, take a shots. Yeah, it's true. Now when we're looking at the series total games, when you're looking over on FanDuel for a sweep, you've got a plus six hundred number there, which again seems a little unlikely. You know, sweeps are really just one team just blowing the other team out of the water, and I think that's going to be a tough sell here from the Milwaukee standpoint.
Then you go to five games plus two forty six games plus two hundred seven games plus one nineties, so all of a sudden, it drops precipitously from the six to between one ninety and two forty. Where's the sweet spot for you? If you're gonna choose one of these in terms of the length of the series, how you see this probably going out? And look, maybe maybe there is something to this idea that maybe Honest isn't going
to play. And if he doesn't, does this push you towards the five to six instead of the six to seven.
No, I don't think it does. I think this is a six or seven for me. I think I would take six because it pays a little bit more, so I think that's where I would go with it. But I think this is a long series even if GA doesn't play, because they look Milwaukee after losing Ga in the last two games against Atlanta never lost the lead in those games.
They are very efficient.
So Chuck, you know, Chuck is saying this a little tongue in chic because you know, Ga is one of the best players in the NBA, and of course your team is better if you have him. But you know, they they move the ball efficiently. They look crisp without him right now, So I think it's going to be, you know, contested series even if GA doesn't play at all. So I would my pick would be six games.
All right, when you're looking ahead to the series spread in terms of winning and losing, here the Bucks winning by one and a half there on the money line and the Suns minus one and a half plus one fourteen for the Sons minus one forty. Any thoughts here on that number, I.
Think I take the Sun this minus you know, the one and a half. So okay, yeah, I I think that's a pretty good bet, especially if I think it's gonna end in six.
That makes sense, all right, Well, if you think it's gonna end in six, then I guess the question becomes who's the champion at the end of that series? Because right now a consensus we're looking as Phoenix Suns minus two hundred and Milwaukee Bucks plus one seventy five to get in before the season series excuse me begins. So, I mean, look, you know, when you come down to this, it's clear that Phoenix is the favorite in this. We
we've kind of established that going in. But you know what, the plus one seventy five is that enough to even get involved in the potential? I guess upset because it's not a huge potential one either. So are you better off just kind of laying the favor here, putting heavy money down on the favorite for the minus two hundred, Playing it that way and in a way safe but also probably the better investment considering all the possible negatives Milwaukee's dealing with in the series.
Yeah, I'm gonna go with the Suns minus two hundred. Like you said, I'm going to lay the bigger money, and I know sometimes that's hard to do, but you know it's just the Bucks have such a big problem with Ga. Even if he does come back, how effective is he going to be? Is it going to be like when the Lakers try to bring a d back and he's going to go right back out?
You know?
So I think that I would be I'd be putting more money on the longer, you know, the minus two hundred than I would be just a plu. That number is not big enough for me to take the bucks in this series without Ga.
Let me set up a scenario that is possible to play out, and I want to get your take on this in terms of the line potentially moving. So let's say the Suns are up two games to one, and then we get that fourth game. Giannis is back by the fourth game, Let's say he has a huge game
and the series is tied two. Is that something where you believe then a little bit more or do you think you just go right back and double down on the Phoenix Suns because all of a sudden, maybe the Phoenix Sun's favorite number in the negative column comes back a little bit from that minus two to maybe somewhere more like a one to fifty or a one to ten or something like that.
No, they if Ga plays and they take momentum on that game. He has an enormous game. He plays a bunch of minutes and he looks good. I think I would, you know, I would. They're taking momentum at that point too. I would go back and bet on the bucks. I just don't. My gut feeling is that Ga is not going to play at all. You know, I know that they.
Say he is. I hope he does. I would love to see him in the finals.
You know, it always sucks when you see a guy finally get there but he's banged up and he can't play.
But I just have a feeling that he's not going to play in this series.
All right, let's move forward here with the NBA Finals MVP and take a look at the numbers here. Chris Paul the favorite at plus one fifty five, Devin Booker plus two fifty. Then you've got Middleton at plus five fifty, Yannis at plus six fifty, which I mean, if the guy plays and he plays well enough and pulls a willis reed. I mean, he used to say that that number doesn't pay off. Now that's kind of the fun bet.
Then he got Drew Holliday at seven fifty on the plus side, and you know a few other guys like Brook Lopez sixty five to one. You're all going to talk about these guys. Let's talk about the guys that really have a chance here, because this is typically that Star Award, so you're getting a pretty decent number here. I think with Chris Paul at plus one fifty five, what are your thoughts on the favorite and what are your thoughts on the rest of this field?
Yeah, I think you know, my favorite is definitely Chris Paul and at that number, Like you said, I like him. I don't see a way that the Suns win and he doesn't get the MVP. You know, there's so much This is the narrative, this is the storyline built into this finals. Is Chris Paul finally getting there, being the difference for the Suns, you know, super emotional making the finals for the first time. I don't see a way if the Suns win, he's not MVP, if the Bucks win.
I think there's a multitude of guys that could get in here.
Let's walk through those. What are some of those scenarios you can paint here for people who maybe want to get in, maybe on smaller wagers, on some of these bigger odds a little bit just to hedge the Chris Paul. You know, he could drop a big number on Chris Paul at the plus one fifty five, right, you know, let's let's you know, let's call him a hundred on that. If you had ten or twenty more to throw somewhere, where would you want to throw it?
Right?
Well, Middleton I think is going to be the leading scorer for the Bucks. You've seen the ball run through him. Good defensive player too, so you know he's going to be stopping Booker or Paul or somebody and and scoring on the other end. So I think he's the best buck, best bet for the Bucks to win.
I love Gabe for your buck.
That's actually that's right.
I like that GA plus six fifty is great, especially if he comes back in game two or three, you know, kind of unexpectedly. But you know, like like I said before, I think that's kind of yeah, it might be lighting your money on fire if the guy doesn't play, So I don't know that I would bet him my other one, brook Lopez. Look, this number is enormous at plus sixty five hundred for brook Lopez, and he has he has to shut down eight and for the Bucks to have a shot here, and I think he can. He leads
the playoffs in a block shots and steals. He's playing like you know he has he's doing all the HGH or something like he's Tom Brady.
I mean he is.
He is turning back the clock right now and he looks fantastic. So if he is big and just frustrating Ayighton and you know the he's going to be one of the main factors in the Bucks if they win this series. He'll grab those rebounds which both of these teams have been doing very well. He'll be stopping a big factor in eighton and he'll be big on the offensive side too. So I think throwing a couple shekels on Brook Lopez isn't a bad bet at this gigantic number right here.
All right, let's step into the pouch of shekels and talk about the top scorer. We have Devin Booker at minus one fifty five. Again this numbers from the Fanduels Sportsbook, specifically Chris Middleton at plus one eighty five. Then, of course you go to Giannis, who were slightly concerned about you got eighten us Paul Drew Holliday all at ten to one. But what are your thoughts here on about
Booker Middleton here? Because these are the two favorites. Obviously you're getting a much better number with the plus one a five on Middleton minus one fifty five on Booker. Is it a stay away because you think it's Booker? Or you think Middleton really has a shot at this?
Anything anything not Booker in this series is a sucker spat. So it's uh, it's definitely Booker. I love Middleton and he'll probably lead the Bucks in scoring, but they'll still spread it out. I mean, Booker can go absolutely off. So uh, I think it's Booker. I don't think it's close, and there's no one else id bet on.
All right, Well, let's take a look then at Booker's number, shall we? Because that number? Look at that segue, so good. Twenty eight and a half right now, that is the number they've set for his series point average minus one thirteen on both sides on the over on the under, So twenty and a half. Obviously it's a good number. This is what they do. They set these really good numbers.
So do you want to go over under? Or is it a stay away and instead you just kind of maybe double down and put more money over on Booker being the top point score at the minus one fifty five.
That's what I would do. I don't think this is such a good number. Like you said, you know that they're paid to make good numbers, so this is such a good number. But I think with both these teams being defensively efficient, I mean, Drew Holiday probably drawing Booker if he is absolutely going off, I think it's going to be under that if I had to bet one.
But I think i'd stay away from that number.
All right, There you have it. You know there's one more on here too, just since you mentioned brook Lopez, let's throw it out there too, because maybe you see a little possibility here. The number for brook Lopez in terms of his series point average, fourteen and a half is the over under your thoughts on that.
I don't have a good feel for that number. I think I think that's a good number. I would say I'd probably say under if I had to pick something, But I'm more on brook Lopez frustrating eight and you know, maybe get into the foul line. So maybe you would go over on that, But I like Lopez winning the MVP as a long shot, of course, just throwing you know, ten to fifteen bucks on whatever it is because of his defensive side, not because of his scoring, although he can't score very good.
All right. So, now that the NBA season is kind of you know, almost at the end here, your big takeaway is going into next season, because I know you're an NBA guy, so I'm just kind of curious what you think kind of carries over. Are we going to get a better, more complete version of the nets next year? Are going to get the Lakers kind of reconfigured? Like where do you think things are going here in this offseason?
Yeah, I mean, of course we're going to have the Olympics, and a lot of these guys are playing through that too. But I am looking forward to these players getting rest because they really didn't you know, they didn't get any rest last year, and it was rough, and the injuries are piling up, and this is why part of the reason why they want to have the asterisk right on this finals, because this year has been so littered with injuries. So I'm looking forward to the you know, a real
NBA draft, a real summer league. The Olympics and resting these players so that going into next year, you know, they come in healthier and we don't see them break down so quick. That's really my biggest takeaway from this weird twenty twenty twenty twenty one season. So I think it's going to be way more fun if we see our stars like Lebron and Curry and Klay Thompson back. The Warriors are going to be good, the Nets are
going to be great. You know, the Lakers are going to be in there, The Sons are going to be back with this crew for the most part.
So it's going to be very, very exciting next year.
And it's it's way more wide open than it has been I think.
All Right, So sons and six is that where we're going here?
Bossing Sons and six? Yeah, I know I should.
I should say sons and four because the Sons and four guy, But I'm taking Sons and.
Sons and four guy was certainly a character, that's for sure. But I'll tell you why. What a profit he would be if that ended up becoming the sweep, and what a lot of money one can only imagine that guy is making the Suns and four wager one can only hope that he's doing that. He's gotta stay on brand, after all, pog and that's what you do now. Scott
Bogmin's always on brand. You can follow him on Twitter machine at Bogmin Sports, and again check out in this League dot com and you can join that Patreon itl Army. They got great content over there, covering all the sports and everything in between and very entertaining at that. Plus you could also check out all the work they do for sportscrid. Also, Bogs, thanks so much for hanging out with us for a little while talking about NBA Finals.
We hope everybody enjoys the clothes to the NBA season and hopefully we may we'll get some Giannis in there, and that would be nice to see because it would be a good story. And God knows, I'm a sucker for a good story. So let's hope that he's healthy enough to make an appearance or two at least and make things interesting. Other than that, suns and six feels about right to us here, so that'll do it for us. But the story of the game goes on for Bogmin. I'm Joey p We'll see you next time. Kids,