NBA Finals Betting Preview + Game 1 Best Bets (Ep. 709)

What's up, guys? How are you welcome into the Betting Pros NBA Finals Preview Terrell Furman, Matt Perrault. We will break down the Oklahoma City Thunder and the upstart Indiana Pacers into the NBA Finals. We go, Terrell, We got a really interesting matchup, but it's not so if you take it by the book makers. Ok see, heavy favorites here, heavy favorites in game one. Will break it all down, coming up here today on the program. How are you

Yeah, I'm good, I'm great. I'm looking forward to this. Like again, this is the vindication that I wanted, Matt. I've been betting OKAC consistently, game by game for like three years, and I'm telling you only.

The past two years they've been good. Like it's been. If you've been rocket with OKC, if you're actually a.

OKC fan, you're like, oh man, there were dark days a couple of years ago, and look at us in the NBA Finals. I feel very, very vindicated because this was a group that I have been married to for years and now I get to watch them in the finals.

So let's start with Indiana and then we'll get into the Thunder obviously, because the Thunder have home court. If you're Rick Carlisle, this has to be the perfect scenario for your young basketball team because literally nobody is picking

Yeah, I think they got a shot just because of the fact that they're playing in the game. Now do I realistically think they're gonna win now? Unfortunately, it's just because I think, okay, see, it is too good and it's nothing again the Pacers. I think the Pacers are a good basketball team. And this is coming from a guy that's roasted them over the course of the season. They were very, very unserious throughout multiple portions of the season.

It's one of the biggest numbers we've seen from a series price in NBA Finals history. Fandel has it at seven point fifty. It's plus five point thirty on the return, and I think you're going to see a lot of people just take the fly er bet with the Pacers and say, hey, it's five to one. I've bet worse things in my life. Indiana won the Eastern Conference, why can't they go and beat Oklahoma City. Well, I'm with you. I don't believe they can beat Oklahoma City. I actually

One?

I'm with you. I agree, and I'm not trying to be disrespectful.

No, no, no, So look, I think it's gonna be competitive. I think it's going to be super competitive. But at the end of the day, I don't think that the Pacers have the defense or are going to be able to keep up with all the options OKC has, because you got to think where they just came out of

So at FanDuel, you can look a look at the numbers for this to go. Four games is plus two to eighty an exact prediction. Five games is plus two hundred plus one ninety eight, six games is three to one, and seven games is plus three sixty. If you want to bet the four to one, it's plus two ten and the series price from a total games perspective is five and a half. Under is juiced at minus one forty eight. To give you an idea as to what the books think will happen here in this series, They're

Yeah, I mean, if you look at the odds, that's actually six to one. If you take that exactly just like how you said, it is six to one, and I saw I think it happens.

I mean, if you if you look at OKAC, as good as they've.

Been in the playoffs, they haven't covered the spread at all on the road yet. And so that is just one situation where I'm like, Okay, they clearly they if they go up two games to none, and I think that's where Indiana has to go and make a mark in this series. They have to try to win one on the road, and that's unfortunately, I just don't think they're gonna be able to do that, but they have to try to win one on the road, because if they go up two games to nine, they get very

So we both agree under five games here for this series. Most likely it's going to be a four to one final. I can see a sweep. And somebody proposed, and I have not seen a book put this up. But I'll ask you, and I think you're going to say no to this. But four and oh straight up? And four and oh? Ats that the thunder cover all four games and win all four games? Any shot?

No, No, I'm not gonna do it. First of all, the number is going to be big. It's our what's game one?

Nine?

Nine and a half?

So they so if they cover game one, they have to move it up. So now we're going up to ten, eleven, twelve maybe like in the finals. And then you go on the road, and if they win and cover the first two games, now what are you looking at? You're probably looking at what seven on the road.

No, but they're gonna be favored.

See the thing this maybe so maybe teams so maybe people come by back on the pacers. So what yeah, what is it going to be?

Two and a half?

Three?

Yeah, somewhere in that range and a half you could won possession nine. Yeah, road court is.

The home court is seven points.

Yeah, I mean in terms of what this what we've seen with the Thunder this year in terms of their numbers, I mean, they've been the best home team at blowing teams out at home in the NBA this year. I mean they've won over sixty games by double digits this year. So like laying a nine and a half point number for the Thunder is not a big deal. Pros are laying that consistently just given what the Thunder are doing.

In Game Minnesota, Minnesota was down two games to none and it was three that first game.

Yeah, that's what it will be be two and a half or three in game three, the same same price. I mean, Game one and two were easily won by the Thunder. Right and get in the Western COVERCE finals, so then both they cover both one in they cover both games and then went to Game three and then the number was short. So I just think that's how this series is gonna play out. And then if they cover game three, then you might see the six or the seven in game four, you might see that number

Might be some loyalist over there as seattleists Pulliford and sou.

Yeah, I agree. So I think that building is going to be for the Pacers to walk in there in Game one, first time NBA Finals for so many of these players. We've seen Halliburton get overwhelmed by the moment against the Knicks at MSG at times. I just think this is going to be a first quarter. I expect a pretty decent lead in Game one here after the first quarter. So I'm attacking that just in that market with the minus three in the first quarter, But how are you going to attack game one?

So you look at the numbers and OKAC has been really really dominant in one aspect here at home, and it's the opponent's team total. They are one and eight opponents are when playing OKAC at home in the playoffs.

To their team total.

Great stat, one in eight.

I mean, and guess what the one one one? The one win was the debacle in Game one against Denver where Denver.

Came all the way back. Yeah, only time a team got over their team total that.

Was the overtime overtime game.

I don't think it was over time. I think it ended in regulation, pulling for overtime. I think the overtime game was another one. But yes, that debacle, that's that's what it takes for you to get over the team totally gets okay. See at home in the playoffs, Oh yeah, I bet against the Pacers and not making that happen

Great scoring day.

Yeah, but like I think that OKAYC is good enough in transition on defense that it doesn't matter the pace of the game. And then OKAYC can also change this into a game that they feel more comfortable in because while okay See plays fast, they can slow the game down and they can play out of the half court pretty well as well. And let SGA get iceo ball a couple of times and start to go off there, and I don't think that they'll have anything for that.

And I like it.

Yeah, two thirty one is the total, and the problem with that, like you mentioned, is it can be one twenty to one hundred and it goes under. Like how many points do we expect the Pacers to score? I think you're right on this. I think one oh five somewhere in that range or under for the Pacers, just given the defensive intensity that we're gonna see from all eight nine ten guys coming at you, whether it be Sga, whether it be Dort, They're gonna get up in your grill.

Man. He made it from the back of the pile up, so I've I've been I've done this before. So that's how I know. He made it from the back of the pile and conveniently was up at the front like yeah, if they call me, I'm right here, Like.

No, it was Saco, so he would so like that's my I mean, obviously he can go off and be a big weapon here, but I just I look at you know, Miles Turner has to be such a big weapon here for his length, giving up against Chet and giving up against Hartenstein. I just I think there's just so many players that the Thunder.

Have can't shoot anymore then more.

I I said this before. I said this on my other show and pacer Fan got really mad at me. But I'll say it again. I think at all five positions, the Thunder are better at all five starting positions. I'll take the Thunder player in all five and.

Okay, so let's look at this we got point guard what SGA you call it a point sure, yeah, yeah, SGA Haliberger okay, check nem Hard and oh well I mean you could put him up Jada or do right, yeah, any combination of.

Ye, okay, all right, man, alright, man uh.

Hartenstein Hart and sign against Turner.

Okay.

So if you told me that, if you told me it was Hart and Stein and Pascal, I'd be like, Okay, okay, maybe.

But I think it's it. I mean, it's kind of like it depends.

You know, his position is bad, what depends how you put it. I could I could understand if he was a little upset if he thought Pascal was better than Hartstein. But regardless, there is a very good point to be made that that they aren't better at one position in the starting lineup.

In the bench. Whose bench would you rather have? I mean, I'd rather have the Thunders bench.

Yes.

So I mean you can make a case that maybe Rick Carlisle is the better coach. Okay, maybe make that case if you want to, But I think there's an argument that would be and.

So for me, that would just be the fact of he's old and he's been around the league and he's done it before, and yes, and he has a ring like that's why you're giving it to him. But like daznelds outplayed him over throughout the entire year.

So they've played two times this year, both wild blowout wins by the Thunder and the Thunder obviously the one seed they have home court. They've been sitting and resting because they ripped through the Western Conference. I just I don't see a path here other than the Thunder giving up wide open threes and the Pacers shooting lights out for four games to win this series. That's why the price is where the price is. And I know it's disrespectful, and I know people in the public are gonna run

You have to you have to get thirty. You have to be at thirty points per game to win the MVP. You have to be north thirty points per game because SGA is gonna be at thirty, and I think the only hope that you have for him not being at thirty is that OKC beat the crap out of them so bad that he didn't get the chance see even be in the game in the fourth quarter at times.

But like it is human, I mean, humans are voting. So that's the one issue with this is the human beings are the ones awarding this thing. So to your point, you know, if SGA just is pedestrian scores twenty five a game, which is still great but not great by his standards.

Maybe, like even for that, you have to have this other thing that you did that makes you even somebody that they consider because at least Andrea Godala. His claim to fame was that he stopped Lebron and that's where they were like, oh wait, he stopped Lebron, Like okay, that's what Igo Dalla had, Like what did Jada you stop Halliburton? Nieman Like like look like, what is it if you're not scoring? What is that other thing? Like you have to have a triple double? Like what is

I think it's a SGA's all right, let's say I'm wrong. Okay, let's say the thunder it's seven pacers winning seven. It's an amazing series, amazing historic anybody besides Halliburton win the MVP.

They told you they already set the primed it with Pascal. They did it last year with Jaylen Brown. They primed it and you knew That's why I bet him for finals MVP last year because like they already told us who they like better, Like they told us, like why are we we don't have to go back and forth like they told us who he liked better, because I truly believe at this point it's a popularity award by the voters, not a popularity award by the fans. The

Who is it?

Reggie Miller? You saw Reggie Miller had Haliburton. That's his popular that's his guy, that's his favorite guy. He never talked about Pascal like he talked about Halliburton because Halliburton played his position, shoots threes like you know, they played like they played like each other. So it's a it's a it's a personality. What's the what's the word I'm looking for us?

A personality contest and popularity contest.

Popularity, that's it. Poplar contest. Yes, yeah, I think it's Pascal. If if the Pacers win, is clearly Pascal.

And that's da wins it. If it's going to be the Thunder, I think you're probably right on. That's why it's mis five point fifty.

On SGA to win the seen the Finals MVP be different from the because I know the award is new. The Eastern Conference in the Western Conference. They're only like a couple of years old or something like that. Have we seen somebody be different?

Well, I mean Brown didn't win the Eastern Conference m v P, right, he won the MVAS conference, won them both. Okay, I don't know. That's a good question.

MVP passed winners. Let me look this up real quick.

Has it been different? I don't know, it's it's a great question. Yeah, so it would makes sense.

Pascal Sam, Jalen Brown, Jimmy Butler, Jason Tatum. So the only person that won the championship there was Brown, and Brown won m v P.

So Western one for one on one and then let's see Western Conference. Uh, here we go.

We've got uh wait, hold on, so Luca and then Jokic stuff, Steph wanted, yolks want it, and then you know Luke Laws.

Yep, so it goes. Let me ask you a couple of fun prop questions for the series. And this is coming from our friends at FanDuel. So just different books are going to have different markets, but this is one unique one. Seventeen to one. Well, either team beat the Celtics single game NBA final scoring record for a single game one hundred and forty nine points is what Boston scored to set the NBA Final scoring record for a single game. It's seventeen to one. Obviously, we think it's

We well, I'll say they they opened the door for it to be Indiana two because if you remember Game three in the Western Conference Finals, Minnesota put up.

One forty three, true, So the.

Door is open for it to be Indiana as well.

Either team, it's gotta be one fifty. Either team do it.

At seventeen one.

I don't think it's actually I don't think it's horrible because both of because at one point it's just will somebody give up?

That's all you're hoping for.

Somebody just give up that day, because it's not gonna be like a close like it's not gonna be a close game where both teams are at one forty one and trying.

To push it. It's got to be somebody gave up.

And Okac has the bench where all of them in the finals are gonna continue to put up threes, are going to continue to put up shots and keep going. I don't think it's likely, but it's a chance. I mean, both of these two teams can put up one thirty if I feel like you're, if I feel confident of you to put up one thirty, then it just takes a little bit of giving up on the other end, and next thing you know, you're at one fifty. So

At thirty to one, well, either team break the single quarter NBA three point made record, which is over ten. No eleven made threes thirty to one hit eleven threes in a quarter. I don't know that given where the NBA is, if somebody gets goes crazy, it hits five by themselves and the other guys hit six.

I don't think either team is that good of a of a three point shooting team that they just go ahead.

And bomb it away.

Yeah, Like.

I don't, because you have to put up the attempts to even get there for one and then yeah in one quarter. Yeah, I don't know, Like because's who's says consistent, Like who's as consistent to be able to do that?

Nah, I don't think that I don't like that one.

I like the I like the one fifty seventy point one better than that at thirty to one.

Actually.

And finally, this would probably only be Halliburton, but Magic Johnson's at the record for the single assists.

Twenty two two. They asked this every year.

It's one hundred to one.

They asked this every year, And I just think all like those are the records that I think are gonna stay in the record books, like the Magic twenty two.

Uh, there's even more. Like there's the rebounds one.

It's like forty something rebounds that you have to get to break the rebounds record. It's like, all of those are the ones that are just gonna stand the test of time.

Like let's see the rebound they have that up about the rebounding ones not up. The steals one is up. That's Robert Ory's eight steals. That's one hundred to one to get nine steals in a game. Curry's single quarter NBA Finals seven made threes by one player, that's one hundred to one. And then the block record set by Dwight Howard, that's two hundred to one to record eleven blocks in an NBA Finals game. You just don't see

That's something that you just got to wait and like watch because at some point I think Wemby will be in the finals. Watching is in the finals. That's when they dropped the price. They conveniently dropped the price on that win. When win, he makes the finals. But yeah, man, I I don't know. I'm good the playoff records. Oh yeah, here's the rebounds one. The rebounds one is forty one plus rebounds you need Bill Russell one hundred No, yeah, one hundred.

To one, one hundred to one. Yeah, they're all.

Forty one rebounds.

Like, come on, I feel like I want better than one hundred to one if I gotta get forty rebounds.

Coo on how many how many rebounds in general are there? I mean, like most teams get forty in a game. If one player get forty, it's a lot of misshots.

Because the one that I was looking at, the one that I was looking at for a while that I was like, oh, SGA might be able to get that one is the points one.

But then I saw what the number one and I was like, oh my god, sixty two points in a game, yeah, forget it, and only sixty.

To one for sixty two points, Like that's not even I could build a parlay with sixty points that it'd be more than sixty to one.

Fair, fair, fair, All right, as we wrap, let's get to our plays here for the NBA Finals. In game number one, what are you playing for the finals?

All right? We both talked about it.

Under for the series total games five and a half played that and I did play in game one the Pacers team total under one ten and a half. I will throw I don't like to throw out any type of lanes or anything like that. But one thing that I am considering, and I haven't gotten there yet, is

For me, I bet before Game seven of the second round against the Denver Nuggets. It was plus one ten. It was gonna be the last time the thunder would have been plus money, and so I jumped on that. So it's not fair to give out a number that's been gone for two and a half weeks with a thunder plus one ten. But I'm letting that ride if I was gonna something, though, I think your under five and a half games is a really good play shop though I wouldn't pay the juice like FANDL is a bit ridiculous.

I think so it's a one twent last I checked on betemgum.

Yeah, so shop around. There's gonna be different prices at different books. Definitely find the under five and a half games at a price that's gonna be cheaper than what Fandel has. Uh. I'm sure there'll be some books that will have better prices. So find the best price on that and bet under five and a half games. I think that is a gentleman sweep. I think it's a four to one. I hope I'm wrong, I really do. If you ask me who I want to win. I'm okay with either one. I think the Thunder or a

Oh well, you're and I mean it's gonna be even more basketball as we get into the summer, because man, I'm a degenerate. I love watching different basketball leagues. Big Three, oh wow, one with there. Yeah, we're gonna have fun. We're gonna have fun with Big Three, TBT. I love the TBT tournament. That's fun, that's nostalgic. So we're gonna continue this going. When NBA stops is WNBA, then we got all the auxiliary leagues that we talk about as

It's pretty cool for myself. With the Daily Juice podcast, you guys have got that every single day, either on your audio, podcast platforms or on our YouTube channel for betting pros Baseball. Obviously, we're heavily into that. The look the Cup finals for the Hoffer Hockey, that's gonna be hyper competitive. I don't think the NBA Finals will be, but we know that the Panthers and the Oilers are gonna go six or seven games. It's gonna be a

Come over, Summer League, Come on.

Over the summer. That's here, that's in Vegas. I can bet that live, that's here, I can bet that in person, so I can go watch that. Let alone bet that he is Darrell Furman. I am parol. Thank you guys for watching. This is the last time we're gonna be talking to you guys for the NBA season. Let's see if Terrell and I are right the thunder. You're twenty twenty four to twenty five NBA champs. I say in five,

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