NBA Awards and Playoff Odds (Ep. 85)

He's one of my good friends. But he's also one of the best folks in terms of NBA to talk to out there on the landscape, whether it be DFS, whether it be wagering, and today, of course we're talking to him about wagering. He's the head of betting content over at Fade the Noise and that's FTN for those of you cool kids. And as you could see here if you're watching us on the YouTube channel, you see him flashing the little stuff there right there. He is

a product placement all the time. But he is one of my favorite dudes. He's my Pizon. He's Benny Richardi. Everybody. Welcome to the show. Benny, how you doing brother.

We're also going to talk about some of the conferences, some of the standings where we're at right now, and maybe a little look into the playoffs, see what's going on, what Benny likes as we're kind of heading closer and closer to that, and look, it's it's been a pretty

dark good NBA season. I would say, you know, I know a lot of people were kind of skeptical going in once again, and I feel like, you know, the further we get down here, the more we're getting to more of a sense of normalcy with things, which is great. We've seen what's happened last year with the NFL and then obviously with Major League Baseball this year with crowds being back. So you know, let's start with some of the awards, Benny. Let's start with MVP, which Nikola Djokic

is at minus four hundred on consensus Betting Pros right now. Again, Betting Pros takes the consensus from all the different houses kind of compiles them into one number. After that, you got Joel Embiid at plus three fifty and Steph Curry at plus fourteen hundred. So I'm just gonna be simple with this. Is this just a foregone conclusion?

really want to lay one hundred dollars to win twenty five? Like? That's basically what you're looking at here at minus four hundred. I think Steph Curry is worth a little bit of a gamble here because of all these other guys, he's the one. Him and Embiide have a little bit of

a chance here. Now. The reason why I say, if you're gonna make a little gamble here, I'd rather do Steph Curry is because you're getting Steph Curry at like plus what did you say plus fourteen hundred was the if you're gonna make a wager, that's probably the better way to go on it right now. Now again, do I think Steph Curry is gonna win it? No, I

do think Nankolea Jokic is gonna win it. But I think that at twenty to one on Steph Curry, or even fifteen to one on Steph Curry, that's given him like a five or six percent chance of winning this award. And I think he's probably closer to maybe ten percent here because if you look at the numbers this year, he's the guy. I mean, it depends what do you count as what makes a guy the most valuable to his team, Because to me, one of the things that I look at is the expected win total that that

player creates for his team. So basically, they look at the stats and they say, a guy like this, if you put him off this team and put him on another team, this is the number of expected wins a guy with these stats would have. You know, Steph Curry is thirty three. He's leading the league. So by that metric, he is the most valuable player in the league to

his team. His team would be thirty three depending on who the substitution is, but if you substitute him with the league average player, they would be thirty three games worse off than they are with Steph Curry. Nobody else's you know, even close to that number. Joelle Embiid, I think, is at thirty one, So he's another guy that's like kind of in that conversation. But Steph has the best

number in the league overall. There. But again, you and I know Joe that a lot of these things aren't based on stats, right these are they're voted on by you know.

didn't get hurt. Lebron was having some really good numbers on both ends of the floor this year, there's a guy that you could be there. You know, Giannis is not great on the offensive end, but he's still a well above average offensive player, and he's one of the elite defensive players in the league, like a top five guy when it comes to you know, points safe per one hundred possessions. So a lot of these guys had a chance, but a lot of these guys also miss

time right now. So really, the guy who's been consistent and who has played even above expectations a little bit this year and whose team is winning games right now is Nicola Jocis, which is why he is the clubhouse leader. But of all the ones we're gonna talk about, there's a couple other clubhouse leaders that I'd be like, yeah, you could put money on him at that price if you want to, Jokis is the one that I would

not be betting on here. This is a guy with only twelve expected wins above you know what he would normally gap for a replacement player here. Not that that's a bad number either, that's still a good number, but it's just if not Steph Curry's thirty three, it's not joell In BEA's thirty one, Like if that's how we're measuring someone's worse to a team. He's really not the guy who has meant the most to his team this year.

It feels like it should be a little bit tighter.

putting money on. And minus four hundred though there's no value there, there's I'll give you something that's a bigger lock that we're gonna talk about in a little in a minute. That's a better number than minus four hundred that we should be betting on if we're gonna do it.

Edwards now slouch either, But right now it's telling you that Ball is a clear favorite.

him out anyway. Even though Anthony Edwards was the first pick, I gotta be honest with you, Joe, I'm going to give a shout out here to an honorable mention guy that I like even better than Anthony Edwards. I would rather vote for Tyrese Haliburton that I would for Anthony Edwards this year. I think he's had a better overall season. Right now with the Aaron Fox out on the COVID protocol, he's getting a chance to kind of run the team, putting up like double double numbers and points and assist

every night. To me, I always thought he had a better season than Anthony Edwards did. Again, Anthony Edwards had such a bad start to the year and his team was so bad too. It's not like, you know, sometimes there's a number one overall pick like Lebron comes in and you know, changes his team's fortune in one season. If it was a situation like that, I'd be like, yeah,

you have to give it to Anthony Edwards. But I just I don't think he's done enough to even I even told people that I don't know if I would want to bet on him. Even if LaMelo Ball was like out for the season and never came back, I still thought LaMelo Ball missing the last couple, you know, the last couple weeks of the season, already had this award locked up because he was by far the best

rookie out there. He's still the guy. And again, you could take Jokitch at minus four hundred, or you could take LaMelo Ball here at like minus three zho five minus three zero two. Those numbers are just better. So if you're gonna put money on something, put it on where you're gonna get the better return. I'd rather be here on LaMelo.

righted the ship and realized who we are again. But then again it kind of peaked as we're getting closer to the end of the season. So Randall right now is at minus five hundred for this award, Jeremy Grant, Is it plus four hundred? Is this another one where it's just a lock and you walk away because it feels like it?

this year. He's been basically their entire offense because that's really what that team struggles with on the offensive side, and his defense has been a little bit better too. I mean, he's always been known as a guy who's been kind of a dog on defense, but the Knicks have one of the top defenses in the league this year. I think they're giving up the third fewest points per one hundred possessions right now. And you know what, Randall's numbers look better than they have. So coming to the

Knicks has been great for him. He's played as well as anybody could this year. You know, he's had triple doubles at some points this season. He's had a whole bunch of games with double digit assists that we made a lot of money on betting on over at FTN. It's like my favorite bet this year. Everybody over there will be like, oh, you're playing Julius Randall assist again. Well, yeah, it keeps getting it. You know, the guy's gonna keep going over to number. We're gonna keep playing it. So

I love Julius Randall. He's made me a lot of money this year. I'm just not willing to invest anymore of that. At minus five hundred er, I mean, do I think it's a lock? Yeah, you can get like sixteen seventeen cents on the dollar for every dollar you put in there. I mean, if you really don't, you know, have any other use for that money. Between now and

the end of the season the next three weeks. But I don't mean throw it in there, but you're not gonna get You're not gonna get that great of a return.

lock favorite here? And Gobert is that lock favorite When it comes to Defensive Player of the year feels like as well.

Mitchell's their superstar. He's not gonna be an MVP candidate. The writers aren't going to allow this team to have this good of a season and not have, you know, some kind of awards coming their way. And listen, Rudy Gobert is a deserving favorite for this too. I don't want you to think that he's not. Like when you look at defensive numbers, there points per one hundred possessions, which is the stat that everybody uses, as you know,

the main one for defense because it kind of encompasses everything. There, Rudy Gobert is leading the league. He is worth eleven and a half points to a team per one hundred possessions on the defensive side. Without Rudy Gobert, you would expect that team to score eleven, you know, to have eleven more points per game scored. Upon him, There's only two guys that are over ten. It's him and teammate

Mike Connolly. And you know, like I said, by far, statistically you can make the case that he is head and shoulders above everybody else in the league. So I understand the three thirty five what I don't understand is the guys that are behind them. Ben Simmons, who I love and I love Ben Simmons. Ben Simmons is one of the few guys in the NBA that you can legitimately put on any player one through five, whether it be the opposing center, of the opposing point guard, or

anything in between, and he could guard that guy. So he is the arguably the most versatile defender in the NBA, which is great, but his numbers aren't jumping off the page as like, Oh, this guy deserves to be, you know, the defensive player of the Year. Without him, his team's defense wouldn't be bad. They're a very good defensive team and they've been a very good defensive team even in games that Ben Simmons didn't play. So is he a great defensive player? Absolutely? Is he a positives to them

on defense? Yes? Does he completely change a game like Rudy Gobert does And the answer to that is no. So I will do this. And Miles Turner. I have no idea why that Miles Turner is on this list. It makes no sense to me that he is the third one on this list whatsoever. But I need to I want to throw the third guys in there, the

guys that should be on this list. Mike Connelly should be on this list because, like I said, second best defensive number there, one of the best defensive point guards in the game has been for a really long time. Does he get enough credit? Really? Hope he's First Team All Defense this year. You know, Giannis every year deserves to be there, and you can say what you want about him. The guy's an absolute beast, very much like Ben Simmons, can guard just about anybody on the floor

at any time. He's long, he rebounds, there's a ton for your defense right there. And then the other guy who's unsung and people don't consider him a great defensive player, but his defensive numbers have been amazing this year has been Clint Capella. Clint Capella is a big reason why the Atlanta Hawk games don't end up one fifty, one forty every single night. They still get there every once in a while and a bunch of one twenties and one thirties, But Clint Coppella deserves a lot more credit

than he's getting on defense as well. So those should be the names behind Rudy Gobert. But Unfortunately, Rudy Gobert should win this at three thirty five. If you don't like the LaMelo play, this is the other place I put my money before I put it on joking.

and then it gets sort of to turn to Kyler Murray for a little bit in that discussion, and then that went away and Ebsen flows and eventually it's Josh Allen and Josh Allen kind of all on the peripheral. But with the NBA, I feel like some of these awards they just get locked in and then the narrative drives itself and then it makes it very difficult by this time of the season to really get any sort of value. But I think we can find some value here with

some of these wagers. So let's with just a few games left here, let's talk about the Atlantic Division winner. We got the Sixers right now, the consensus number to win the Atlantic Division minus won thirty nine and the Nets at even money. So looking at those two right now, where do you put your money, if anywhere, on one of these two teams?

a fifty eight percent chance to win the division. Now, there's a good chance that these two teams both go I don't know, seven and four or eight and three three about the end of the season, because based on their win percentages this year, that's what you would expect them to win about two thirds of the remaining games that they have, which with eleven games means they're both

gonna wind up with six or seven wins here. And the Nets already have one game up on the Philadelphia seventy six ers, so you know, they could basically match the seventy six ers record and still wind up winning the division, whereas the Sixers are gonna have to hope that the Nets lose a couple of games here. Now, again, are the Nets as good without James Harden and without the Marcus Aldridge, which is something else we'll talk about later when we talk about championship odds, No, they're not.

But Kevin Durantz back, he's really really good. Kyrie Irving's still there. He's really really good, really good. Joe Harris is a great shooter who's going to stand in the corner and stretch defenses, and that's what every team wants right now. So the Nets still have enough pieces where they can go six and five worst case, seven and four, eight and three best case, and if they do the eight and three or the seven and four, it's still

their division. So if you're gonna give me even money on them, where I gotta lay minus one thirty nine on the Sixers, who are a game back with eleven games to go. You know, I like the Horsetts and the lead in the race, Joe, I'm not taking a one that's behind.

You're betting on Miami going on a run right now. That is, you know, I'm not gonna say unprecedented, But then you also have to hope that Atlanta forgets how to play basketball, or that they get a couple injuries or something where you know they're gonna lose at least two, if not three, of those. They're gonna have to pick up three games in the last ten games of the season in order to win this conference. It's not again, it's not out of the question, but you know, it's

very hard to do. You're gonna need the Hawks to go five and five, and you're gonna have to go nine and one. Are You're gonna need the Hawks to go four and six, which is completely out of character for them, and you're still gonna have to go seven and three just to get that done. So there aren't a lot of scenarios that really play out in Miami's

favor here. And I know everybody loves Miami because they made that big run last year, but this team has not played anywhere near the way they played in the bubble last year. The defensive numbers are still pretty good, but the offensive numbers are way below what they did when they went on that run. And that's really been a difference for them this year. They've they have burned more money for betters this year than a lot of

other teams. I think they've only had like a maybe like a forty five percent cover percentage this year because they've basically been over bet all season.

far this year. The Suns are gonna need to go like six and five through that last eleven, and they're still gonna need like a like I said, like an eight and one from the Clippers in order to catch them. So this is different than the seventy six ers and the Nets because the seventy six ers and the Nets have the same amount of games to play. Right in this situation, the Clippers have two less games to play, and the odds are actually even the Clippers better. I'm

taking the Suns here. You're giving me eleven games with the same amount of wins, and and all I gotta do is match the number of wins that the Clippers get in order to win. This one is the Phoenix Suns at even money. I like this even more than I like the Nets and even money.

Jazz have played all year. They've been my favorite team to watch, no doubt, from the day one of the season until now. And it's a different brand of basketball. It's more of a throwback brand of basketball. They have ball movements there, the defense is there, it's just different. It's it's something I enjoy watching. The question is when you start matching up against teams with enormous star power, what happens? Then? You know, in the short series, can

this brand of basketball win out? Because look, it's happened in the past. I think about that run that the Piss had years ago too, where it was not really the Ben Wallace years or it wasn't like that one go to star guy, but they were able to make the system work. A very physical team there too, play good defense. But can the Jazz play the style of ball and win this conference or is it going to be the Clippers or Lakers or maybe even somebody else? In your mind?

have all their star power there. That what makes the Jazz so good is they're a very deep team, and like you said, they played really good defense in a half court and they move the ball and they do all that stuff, and that stuff works great during the regular season when teams are playing you know, guys eight, nine, ten in their rotation, and guys one through five are only playing thirty two or thirty four minutes a game, and the playoffs, guys one through five are playing forty

minutes a game. So yeah, that ball movement and stuff is great, but it doesn't work as well when it's Kawhi Leonard and Paul George and all the studs on the other team on the floor for forty minutes. And your depth is great too. It's nice to have depth when you get in the playoffs, but when you get in the playoffs, it's more about your starters because your

starters are playing extra minutes. So if the other team's starters are better than yours, then they're going to be on the floor at a disadvantage for a longer period of time than they are in a regular season. And

it happens every year. We watch these teams that come out of nowhere and be like, oh man, we didn't think they were going to be there, and oh man, like the Lakers are sneaking in as like a five seed, Well they're seeking is a five seat because le Brown's have played in a month and Anthony Davis took like two months off because he had some other injury as well. But when those guys are healthy, you're not beating that team.

And that's the thing is like everybody's looking right now and saying like, oh, well, maybe the Jazz can make a run, Maybe the Jazz can do this. I've been like you, Joe, I've been higher on the Jazz all year. We've been betting them all year, We've been making money on them all year. Other people haven't believed in them all year. But when it comes to the playoff time,

you do not want to bet on this team. And when it comes to looking at the Western Conference Finals, the fact that their number is only thirty or forty basis points off of a team like the Clippers, or only one hundred basis points of way from a team

like the Lakers is just ridiculous. The Lakers and the Clippers' chances of winning this conference are so much better than the chances that the Utah Jazz has because the Jazz has to beat not one, but both of those teams to get there, and I don't see them doing I don't see them beating either of those teams. So at some point they're gonna have to play one of them and they're gonna wind up losing. If you told me we can get the Jazz at like plus seven hundred

or plus eight hundred, I'd be like, okay, fine. At the beginning of the season, they were plus thirty six. I bet them at plus twenty four about a month into the season, right when they started going on that first run of like nine or ten wins in a row. Now that number is down to what is that number down to with the Jazz like plus seven hundred to win the championship, and all these other numbers to win the conference, to win the division are all derivatives of

the number to win a championship. So if we think that that number to win a championship at plus seven hundred is way too low, then you can't bet on this team to win the division or to win their conference, because that number is gonna be way too low from what you should be getting it on. So for my money, right now, the two best bets are still the Lakers and the Clippers. If you're looking at take somebody to win this division, which.

find on them. Now they're plus three fifty. And again if the plus three fifty, if these other numbers are derivatives of that win a championship number, then if you think that plus two three fifty is too high right now, then you got to think any of their other numbers are a little too high right now. So I think the plus one seventy five for the Lakers probably a little higher than it should be. That numbers should be

more like plus one fifty or below. So you're getting some value out of that right now.

If you are one of these people that really just does not believe in the super team of the Nets, that the seventy six ers is the way to go or is it Jannis in the bucks? Because I think last year's playoff run uninspiring. I feel like a little bit kind of left a little bad taste in people's mouths. I don't know if the money's going to go there. Do you think if the money's not going to the Nets, it goes to the Sixers? And I guess the question

is should it be? I mean, are the Nets the foregone conclusion?

Harden's gonna come back and be okay. You don't have the boost that they thought they were gonna get from having LaMarcus Aldridge in there, which I don't think people realize how big LaMarcus Aldridge news made me look at these numbers and say these numbers are too low because adding him as your fourth option is just insane, Like it's it's almost not fair. It's a trade that they wouldn't let me pull off if I was playing on PlayStation or something point in time. I mean, they got

you know, they got him that was released. They picked them up like that was a great pickup for them. So him, you know, deciding to retire, which you know, no knock on him. I would have done the same thing if it was my health, So I'm not knocking him for it. But it definitely the numbers moved when he signed, and when KD was on his way back, and when Harden was still healthy at the time, and all those guys are supposed to play together. But now Harden is out. Harden had a setback, which we don't

know how long that's going to keep him out. LaMarcus Aldridge is out with the heart thing, and this number hasn't moved. So to me, this number is over bet because at the very least, there should have been some kind of adjustment for Aldridge going down and Hardened being more of a question mark now than he was a couple months ago. And we haven't had that. We haven't

had a big adjustment back in the other direction. So right now, the way I'm looking at it is you also got to think about all the injuries this team has. Joe like Kevin Durant could go down again. We've seen it multiple times. James Harden, maybe he doesn't come back. And if that's the case, now you're going to war against the Bucks, and against the Toronto team that is healthy now, and the seventy six Ers team and whoever else, the Celtics who are starting to play a little better,

and all these other teams. You're going to war with just Kyrie Irving, not the big three of Kyrie, Harden and Kevin Durant. So I don't think that laying more than even money on the Brooklyn Nets right now is the best way to go. I think the value actually comes from the other team. And I agree that everybody is talking about the seventy six Ers, which also makes them overvalued and over bet. The place I want to go is actually in the Milwaukee box. You look at

the Bucks. Yeah, you look at the stats for the Bucks. Their point differential is only behind I think they're actually ahead of the Phoenix Suns now they were trailing them most of the season. But the only team that's got a better point differential per one hundred possessions is the

Utah Jazz. So the Milwaukee Bucks statistically are still the second best team in the NBA at the current moment, and you're getting them at plus three fifty, whereas the Jazz, even in the other conference, you're only getting at plus three hundred. So I mean, I think it's an easier path for them than it would be in the West. And there are reasons to think that if Brooklyn's not one hundred percent, Brooklyn could wind up losing to one

of these teams that we're talking about here. And to me, Milwaukee is still the best team in the East statistically, even though, like you said, people are scared away from them because they didn't play last year. But you know what, this isn't last year. It's this year, So you can't let that carry it over. There's still the statistically better team and have the better odds of winning it, and at plus three fifty, I think there's value.

you're getting there. You have the Lakers at plus three fifty, the Clippers at plus five hundred, the Jazz plus seven, which is not a number. So I'm assuming you're going deeper. You're looking for maybe the Bucks or somebody like that, who in terms of that number very different. So when you're looking at consensus, is that where you're going?

six fifty, Milwaukee was plus five fifty. The Lakers were the big favorites, like plus two to fifty to plus two to seventy five, maybe a plus three hundred out there, right, So if the regular season doesn't matter other than making sure your guys are healthy and you make it to the regular season, then why should anything we've seen during the regular season really change the way that we thought about anything at the beginning of the year, with the

one exception being the Brooklyn Nets. And the reason for it is the Brooklyn Nets are materially different now than they were when we were making those plus six hundred bets at the beginning of the year. They added that James Harden guy, he's pretty good at bet he's all right, you know. And again, if he's gonna be healthy, if Kevin Durant's gonna be healthy, if Kyrie is gonna be healthy, then that should be a lower number than the plus

six hundred at the beginning of the year. It should be basically in line with the number that the Lakers have, arguably less than that if you think that that Big three is gonna wind up beating Lebron. So seeing that number at two forty right now, I don't think it's a bad number. I think that's where it belongs. Like,

I think that's the right number there. Now you should also see the Lakers number tick up a little bit because of that, because again, now you have a team that is much easier to see being a team that can challenge them and beat them that numbers at three to fifty. Again, it was two fifty at the beginning

of the year. So I like the fact that I could get an extra hundred basis points now on the Lakers, because again, if the regular season doesn't matter other than to get into the playoffs, then really the season hasn't even started yet. So if you're gonna give me a better odds on the Lakers now than I could have got at the beginning of the season, I like that. The same thing goes in the opposite direction for the

Utah Jazz. Like I said, thirty six hundred at the beginning of the season twenty four, you know, about a month into the season when I rode up and bet on them. Now they're plus seven hundred. I can't take plus seven hundred. I can't take that number on the Utah Jazz. For me to take it to Jazz right now, they probably have to be double that number. They'd have to be twelve or fourteen hundred for me to be interested,

and they're not there right now. You could get the Milwaukee Bucks in some places at eight nine hundred, maybe even like a thousand, depending on where you're looking.

not a good look for them. So do you think that this Bucks team has shown you that they've kind of either learned from this or are motivated to kind of get passed last year? Because last year was a huge disappointment for that.

it's usually somewhere a little above one hundred. So the way you got to look at that is it doesn't matter who you're playing against when it comes to pace. If you're the team that's doing the most offensively per one hundred and stopping the other team the most defensively, you're going to be in a lot of games. And there are usually three to five teams every year that are in the top ten in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency. And these are teams that usually wind up

making deep runs. And this is the reason why I liked the Miami Heat last year because last year the Miami Heat were a top ten team in offensive efficiency and a top ten team in defensive efficiency. The Milwaukee Bucks were two, and they lost to the Miami Heat, another team who was what I call a due qualifier, and both of those things. The other team that was a due qualifier was the Boston Celtics, who was one of the other teams that was on the road for

those teams to get to the finals. The Lakers weren't last year, but they were eleventh overall in scoring, so they were like literally right on the outskirts of it. And they were one of the top defensive teams, so you can kind of make a little bit of an exception for them. But the teams that tend to make the deepest runs are usually the ones that are good on offense and good on defense. The Milwaukee Bucks this year are one of those teams that's a due qualifier.

Top ten on defense, top ten on offense. Right now, I think there's Eavington's fifth or fifth and seventh somewhere in there. But these are the teams that I have the most faith in because they can beat you multiple ways. They can go out and shut you down, hold you to ninety five points, and even have a bad shooting

game and win one oh one to ninety five. They're also the team that can get in attract, meet with you, and beat you one twenty five to one to fifteen, and those are the kind of teams that usually make the deep runs. Milwaukee being one of those teams this year. Now could some of the other teams, like the Mets play no defense whatsoever.

You know, Tobias Harris is decent. And then you're talking about guys like Seth Curry and Shape Milton and you know, and I mean they're in there to like hit some shots and feed some of these big guys, but they don't have the offensive power that they can win those games when you know their defense isn't shutting teams down. Milwaukee is the team that could play either one of

those two ways and still wind up winning games. So that's why to me, that's the team that has the most value out of all these teams here.

the FtM network YouTube page and check that out. And then again, FTN bets is the site that I'm the head of content from, so between writing articles and Ye'll get other people to get there are articles in on time. You can find all myself over there, because that's pretty much how it goes in there.