It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros.
Welcome in everybody to betting pros.
It is me joeyp Joe Pizzapia, and today my guest is the Welsh, my co host from leading off over on the Fantasy pro side, and we're gonna break down the MLB wagering for you heading into the twenty twenty two season.
This is the preview show.
We're gonna talk a little win totals here when it comes to teams, the overs and unders we like early on here, we're also gonna talk about some player futures, hand out some awards, and we'll get all the way to the division winners and of course World Series at
the end of the day. In Welsh, this is that time of year where we start to look at the teams and we think we know who we've got, and then, of course, as always, something happens, like the San Francisco Giants come out of nowhere last year and show up with the Seattle Mariners and change the perspective.
But I think it's a very exciting time here.
We've got some rookies that are breaking camp, so that should be an interesting award to give out, but Welsh, We've got an exciting potential twenty twenty two season ahead of us.
It's glorious. It's glorious with all the futures to be had. We were talking about this soft air. I've never even before gambling became legal here in Arizona, I never was like a crazy, crazy, big futures guy, you madly into futures and very successful. But I gotta admit it's kind of the most enticing I think it's ever been in years that I've paid attention to it, watched it. Bogin and I had talked about it over years and years.
With the advent of the of baseball being incentivized to bring up rookies, Bam, we've got a whole bigger, different race for Rookie of the Year awards and even some of.
The win totals.
I gotta tell you, scouring through there's some stuff in there that I'm like.
Am I missing something? What am I missing? What is Vegas trying to do here?
So if you are comfortable making a little bit of an investment for the future in the game that you love, discounts and money to be made today and hopefully we're gonna nail some of those guys.
Yeah, one hundred percent, man.
And just to you know, kind of lay it out there when it comes to these sort of early, you know, season wagers when we're starting out the top of the year.
I like to think of it like investments.
You know, you see the things you like on the board, and you invest a small amount or even a large amount, depending on what your pank roll is, and then as the season goes on, you reevaluate them. Is it time to get off of that investment into another investment or is it time to double down that investment. Let's say, you know, you have Shoeotani who was a player last year who did this show. We talked about him for MVP. I said, if he pitches and he hits, how is
anyone going to deny him? Dan Harris of course called me crazy. Both of those things were true. Cho Hoyotani was MVP and I am crazy. So Dan was right about one thing, wrong about the other. But it's the whole point of being in early, even in small amounts, as small investments, and then as the season progresses, you reevaluate a month in, two months in, and then three four months in and then obviously get the end as well for that final push if there's still money to
be made. Now, when we're looking here, we're going to be using our bettingpro site at bettingpros dot com, where if all the consensus odds and all the different houses there like bet, MGM, FanDuel DraftKings are all there. But what's great about this is it gives you the consensus line. They can go out there see the things you like and then find the best odds anywhere can get them. And also, if you're going to be doing in season wagering, I strongly suggest you take a look at our prop
bet cheat sheets. So right there under MLB you go under picks, you find the prop bet cheat sheet and every day it's going to have that projection for you with certain players, certain prop bets you can make there.
And the best location to make those wagers.
So if you haven't already, head over to bettingpros dot com because that is the place to be to make all these wagers. And I know New York is legal now, so a lot of people are getting into this. A lot of people from Fantasy World are starting to dip their toes in the water of gambling, and I think it's a fun thing to do. And if you understand and you're a really good fantasy player, there's money to be made.
All right, let's continue to educate the people.
Wels.
We'll start with the over unders on the games. So here are some of the win totals for some teams that right now really pop to me, and I'm going to give you a few of them. The first one is the Mariners at eighty three and a half. This is a team that won ninety games last year. They just acquired the reigning al Cy Young and Robbie Ray. To me, this is a huge upgrade in that rotation. I expect Logan Gilbert to make another step forward. We just got news that Julia Rodriguez is going to open
the season with the team. That is a huge win here for the Mariners. They acquired Winker Suarez. I think might be done, but still, you know, they went out there and they made adjustments. Do I expect Minch Hannigert at forty bombs again, No, but eighty three and a half. I expect them to be much better than a five hundred team, especially as the Oakland As continue the jettison players as Sean and I got dealt.
So the Mariners over.
At eighty three and a half for me, the Rays at eighty nine and a half. Welsh, I don't know how many times you have to get beaten over the head with this. The Rays are always going to win ninety something games. It's how they manage the one sixty two season. It's the way they do it. They will make an addition to the team at some point in time that makes sense to them and add more offense. Likely to me, this is a team once again, every year we sit here with the Rays. Every year it
should be an over, because every year it is. The White Sox went from ninety two and a half to ninety one and a half actually overnight when the Lance Lynn news broke. He's going to miss some time here. But I still like the over on this one. I still think they're the kings of this division. I think they're going to roll. I think top to bottom it's a great offensive, defensive team, still a great rotation, even if Lynn misses some time. The bullpen's very solid as well.
And then it's the Brewers at eighty nine and a half. Another thing where I look at the division itself. I really don't see a whole lot of competitors outside the Saint Louis Cardinals really giving them any runs for their money. That pitching staff is so good. They've got a pipeline of some young pitchers as well. So those are the overs. I like the Mariners at eighty nine and a half, the White Sox at ninety one and a half, the Rays at eighty nine and a half, and the Mariners
at eighty three and a half. So when you're looking at some of the overs, who kind of pop to you, well, so you thought might be a good early investment.
Well, I really like the Mariners one. It's interesting.
You've got a lot of high totals here. You've got great teams. High totals can be a little bit scary.
But I love the Mariners one.
I'm such a you know, I'm such a sucker for everything that they do. I absolutely love Logan Gilbert. I love the step that he's gonna make, Julio Rodriguez. It's a whole nother ballgame, you know, for me and my love, and I think they've got depth from outfield to infield, so I think it's a great team. Eighty three and a half. Fantastic love that one. Not to say I don't like the other ones' just high totals. I picked on two really low total teams that I think actually
made improvements and I'd be really interested in. Number one is the Royals, and the Royals are at seventy one and a half, and this team is built to win, that's what they are. They got brought in Zach Grank, They've got another year in of this really good young rotation. They got Brady Singer, They've got Daniel Lynch, they've got Chris Boobie, they've got Jackson Kowhar that's kind of sitting in the wings.
Brad Keller's in there.
I think they've got a really solid rotation, They've got a decent bullpen, and I think they have a fantastic explosive offense with Bobby in there. Seventy one and a half that's really really good. That actually might be one of my favorites. When all push comes to shove, there's a there are the under we're going to talk about might be my absolute favorite, but the Royals would be one that I would want to hammer.
At seventy one and a half, and then this.
Other one's kind of also about team context and improvement. It's the Tigers. The Tigers are down here. And and by the way, I didn't look at every single one of these. These were numbers I saw over on just happening to be DraftKings at sixty six and a half, So you might have to shop around whatever book you're looking at, going to betting Pros and you can see all the totals sixty six and a half.
I like that.
Hobby Baias comes in, Torklsen is in there again. This is kind of you know, mymo here, you've got another year improved of these young pitchers with Terrek Skugel, Casey Maiz, Matt Manning, and Wardo Rodriguez. They bring in to kind of, you know, boost out that entire rotation. They just got better. They just they're not awesome, They're not a great team, but they just got better. And at sixty six and a half, there's a lot of upsides. So as far as like two really you know, I don't know, maybe
stigma teams of not being good. I think both teams made concerted efforts to improve more teams in it, and I like both of those as far as over as I would take on some team totals.
Now the Tigers right now, that consensus number is seventy seven and a half and the Tigers on betting pros, So it's something to take notice of. You can find it somewhere else cheaper in terms of a lower number. You could certainly bet that variance. And that's why it's so important. That's why it's so great to have these tools at our fingertips.
What is the what are they? What are they over there?
Their seventy seven and a half is the consensus for the over under for the Tigers this year for winning.
Okay, and the consensus well, yeah, like I said, I just happened to find sixty six and a half was over on draftking. So that's the number that I got now, seventy seven and a half. I ain't playing that. I ain't playing Homeie, don't play that.
You play the under on that?
Yeah, way, I'm gonna take out that rather wap. I'm not doing that one if it's seventy seven and a half. But I found sixty six and a half on DraftKings, and I like, I like, E.
Let's get to some of the unders here and for me. The first one is gonna be the Orioles at sixty four and a half. And yes, it's already a low number. But this Orioles team is not very good. I mean after John Means, and even John Means, I'm not sure what we're getting out of him from a pitching standpoint. I do think they're gonna sell off some more pieces they continue to rebuild. I think they're gonnat bludgeoned by the other teams in this division too. The Blue Jays
are great, The Yankees are gonna be the Yankees. The Red Sox will continue to be a very good offense. We'll see what happens without sale how they do. But I mean, really, I just I look at this East and it's such a monstrous division. I think it's really hard. Oh yeah, and that Rays team that already picked the over on. I mean, the Orioles are going to be in for a long season. The Nationals I think are as well. I know it's been encouraging to see Patrick
Corbyn pitch a little bit better in this spring. I understand that they've got some young talent potentially to break through still in this team, I know Jan Sota is the best player on the planet. But seventy one and a half, I still like the under there. I think this is a team that really struggles, and I do think they're gonna jettison more pieces like Nelson Cruz as the season goes on, just because they really can't compete right now. They just can't do it. And I don't
axce Exprassburg to do anything. That thoracic outlet syndrome thing has really crushed many careers in Major League Baseball with pitchers over the last decade, and I expect to be the same with him. So the under on the Nationals at seventy one and a half, and then the Giants, the Darling last year, the Cinderello eighty five and a half, I'm gonna take the under here. Their move from Gossman to Rodin. You can certainly argue that Rodin had a
wonderful season last year. I'm gonna argue he's got track record of not pitching games, and I think that's a huge one. Buster Posey's gone. You missed that leadership that was there last year. Evan Longoria already on the shelf
to open the season. Everything broke right, I think for the Giants, and I'm not trying to take anything away from them as a team, but Welsh to me, the Giants were a great story last year, but I'm not buying them again to repeat it in twenty twenty two, especially with some of those juggernaut teams you've got there,
like the Padres pitching staff now and the Dodgers. So the under on the eighty five and a half for the Giants, the under for the Nationals at seventy one and a half, and the under for the Orioles at sixty four and a half. Those are my three favorite Who are your three favorite unders or two favorite unders you've got here potentially?
First, Okay, so a couple a couple things real quick. I have the best and just most perfect sell of why you go over to the cheat sheet over on betting pros because I'm such a dummy. And when I was looking on DraftKings, absolutely was looking at the wrong team and the Tigers, and I was like, what is going on here? And had I, on that moment just been on the sheet, I would have seen that I
was completely wrong. So getting back to the Tigers one and I was one or two off as well because I did the same dummy thing with the Royals, but the Royals were seventy four and a half, I think, and that doesn't change anything for me. I still love the Royals ones. Tigers, big dummy hands up, go on the cheet sheet on betting pros, that's the way to do that.
One.
On the Giants one, I don't know, man, I don't love that under because as you say, what everything you said to the Rays you can just copy and paste over to the Giants. They just win by the way they made their rotation better. You know, they made that rotation better. Alex Cobb, Alex would both really good pieces. You've got Deskalafani and I don't know. I think they are continuously a sneaky team with a really good bullpen and a bad division. Dodgers fantastic Dodgers.
We'll talk about them later.
Padres little bit dicey on my two favorite bets here, whatever the numbers are, the under on the Diamondbacks and the Rockies wins is for me this year the Rockies are going to not be great. I don't feel as confident maybe with that one, but the Diamondbacks one. Now, the Diamondbacks one I think is that sixty six and a half. Yeah, the consensus is sixty six and a half on the win totals here and the Diamondbacks, even though they're going to try to put some of this together,
it's not a great team. It's a Dodger team that's going to be pounding them. It's a Giants team that's going to get extra wins. So that eighty five I actually like me personally, I'm probably avoiding that one because I think they're super sneaky. I think they're super super sneaky on this one. But I think the Diamondbacks are going to be one of the worst teams in baseball.
Again.
They continuously show that, and that is why I would move off of them and I would go on the under. And then, you know, the only other one I want to look at real quick, Joe, because I'm gonna give you on the fly after Yeah, yeah, well we're gonna do this one. Even though this team has been kind of similar to the Giants and the Rays over time.
When you just had the A's trade shamm and Aya to the Padres and can continue to decimate that team, they blatantly are staring you in the face to take an under because they are rebuilding, and I don't think they're gonna do it quick because they don't have a lot of young pieces that are ready to come up. Sixty eight and a half, they are a higher win total than the Arizona Diamondbacks. I don't think so, Scooter eight and a half. I'm gonna take the under. Betting
consensus bending pros consensus shows minus one twenty two. So you're almost getting out of like good juice range. So give me the A's, give me the Rockies, and boy, give me the Diamondbacks unders.
Yeah, I love the A's one too. I could not agree more. All right, let's switch gears to a little hardware. Let's talk about MVP will start in the American League. Vlad Guerrero right now is sitting at consensus at plus three hundred, same as Shoeotani right around there, plus three fifty. Now at BETMGM Blad, Guerrero is plus five hundred. Interesting note there, Mike Trout is at plus three seventy five in the consensus line, but at bet MGM you get in for plus four to fifty. Right now on FanDuel
plus five to fifty. Those are kind of the odds on favorites in the American League. So I still am of the mind that as long as show hey O Tani continues to pitch and hit. If he's gonna throw one hundred and forty innings this year and he's going to hit anything close than we did last year, I don't know how anyone else wins Most Valuable Player. He is literally pitching and hitting at a very high level. It doesn't matter what Trout does, It doesn't matter what
Vladd does. I told you last year Lad could win the Triple Crown. I would still vote for Otani if I had to vote. And if you're looking right now for the best line in Otani right now, that MGM is the best place at plus three fifty, you can get it because some have it at three hundred, some at three forty.
But to me, it's still Otani in terms of favorites.
But if I'm going to look a little deeper, Welsh and I'm gonna dig, and I'm trying to make a case for somebody plus twenty two hundred on Louis Robert, who I know is a favorite of yours. You're looking for a narrative, right, it's a high profile team, a team that, if everything breaks right, could win ninety five to one hundred games, right if Link comes back healthy, and you know, they just kind of roll the White Sox.
We're just scratching the surface of how good Louis Robert can be At plus twenty two hundred, He's my favorite of the long shots for American League MVP. How do you feel about the favorites and how do you feel about any long shots potentially that you would want to put money on. I've already put money on Otani and Robert. Those are my two guys. You have any guys you like in the American League.
I just wanted to add I agree with the Otani stuff. If Kings says have him at four hundred, so that would actually I don't think it's just curated yet, so that would actually be the current best odds. Really like that if you.
Can jump good yeah. Plus.
I mean the problem too is with Atani is the only thing that takes him away is injury, and that's still very There's a big Possibilityory's out there, and that's why he's not a minus number like he should be a minus number.
He's so much far and away a favorite in that sense because he does something that nobody else can do, and that's why it's the injury risk that makes it it's still three.
To one, and that's why it's easy money to throw out there, because it's still plus four hundred.
Now here's the only thing.
I don't mean to extend all this conversation, but here's the only thing that I do. Wonder is there going to you know how they just created like the Otani rule out there where Otani can now stay in the game as a DH if he comes out. I wonder if there's going to be an MVP Otani rule that just think about this, If Otani continues to do what he does, that MVP will never go to anybody else
by this logic. I just wonder if there's going to be a narrative to writers and voters where they've seen him do this, the expectation is there and they're now looking for other players to do something otherworldly, even though it is the best player. So I only put that out there to say monitor that it's the easiest bet you could do. You got to go show heyo Tani. If I'm going to go deeper two that I like, I mean, I hate to say it. I like Fyron Bucks and at eighteen hundred, he's a little bit face.
It's a long shot. Why not.
He's a little bit higher of a favorite than Robert, which actually don't like that. I like Robert a little bit better, but at the same odds. And that was on just drafting one of the ones I really like, and I think it is on bet MGM. They're giving you the best odds right now. No, no, no, it's actually FanDuel. When I look at the betting Pro's cheat sheet,
here is Bobaschet at plus three thousand. I love you three thousand, Bobaschet, And I think that's a solid bet for a five tool, five tool player that's on a team that is going to back up wins. And I know we always put our focus in the Vladimir ger Junior, but Bobashett at plus three thousand, that's pretty solid. So I like your Robert Buxton, Bashett. Those would be my big long shots. But Otani at four hundred.
I'll tell you what you know.
I always struggle with guys who are on the same team like vlad and Bishett. Uh typically it would be Otani and Trout, but because Otani does what he does.
Unless Trout is gonna start closing down.
They take away from each other.
Yeah, that's smart, it's really smart.
Typically they do because how do you how do you disseminate them? You know, it's the same thing I have a problem with the Dodgers in the National League, Like, right now, you have Trey Turner, you have Freddie Freeman, you have all those guys towards the top of the board, along with Mookie Betts. Right all those guys are towards the top of the board of MVP.
I mean, Robert kind of has that as well. Though with Eloy Jimenez and jose A Brady, there's.
Star Frans send it like a Bray is a really good player, Elloy is a We all love Eloya Menez, but I think the public vision of him is still he's a good player who's young, and we'll see. Whereas if Robert has a thirty thirty season, Let's say that's gonna trend upwards and he's gonna be like the new hot look at the superstar guy in the National League. A little bit trickier obviously, because we're talking about it.
You know, it's it's a tougher road here. Juan Soto's on a terrible team, so he is the consensus number one guy at plus three hundred.
That's a tough sell for Nano Tatistas. Gonna miss too much time.
I hate to be boring Welsh, but I'm right back at Bryce Harper, who is the guy that I picked last year. You can get him at ten to one on bet MGM. Right now, the consensus line is plus six fifty. I would run to bet MGM for that one at that ten to one because to me, even though he had a Cassieanilson Schwarber, they're still more visioned as ancillary pieces, whereas Harper is the star. He's the guy that carried him. And we all know these awards
sometimes go in clusters. You get guys winning back to back or two out of three, whether it be Cy Young or MVP. So I think the Harper narrative is still very strong, and he's viewed as the guy and the leader, and I think he would be my one and only wager in the National League that I would want to make. But how about you, Do you like Harper? Do you like somebody else potentially for this?
Yeah?
So I love the Harper one, and you know the smart bet to do on these and I think you've kind of alluded to it on all this type of stuff in Team Futures.
It's set a.
Couple, you know, increase your odds. You know, you don't have to go crazy units. But it's like if you're like, hey, I want to spend one hundred bucks on all these guys, you know, on different stuff, and it's like, get into MVP Awards and maybe you know, pick two or three and odds on in at the end, if you're betting, you're going to make money, you know, especially if you don't go nuts with it. So I love the Harper one. But here is a side one that I'm gonna throw
out to you. And on FANDO you're getting plus nine hundred.
Now.
The only thing I don't like about this is you get better odds in other places on Bryce Harper. But I'm gonna throw out Ronald acunya. So Ronald d'acunya, he's gonna start dhing and April's gonna miss up to two weeks, that's all we're looking at. Then he's gonna start dhing and then hit the field. This is a fantastic Braves team that is going to be playoff bound, that's going
to win divisionally, is going to be up there. And Ronald d'acunya fighting through that's gonna be a narrative, fighting through dhing while he was hurt coming back from injury. And if he puts up I mean, projections are wild on Acunya right now.
If he puts up the numbers.
Yes there's stars there, but it stars in the same respect that Robert has stars. Akunya is the guy.
If he puts up.
A thirty five to twenty five season while missing a little bit of time and bringing them up to one of the best teams in baseball, he's going.
To be in that conversation.
It's crazy that we're not picking a Dodger here, but they all kind of eat into each other.
I suppose they do.
Chris, I think I'll go with the Coula.
I think it's just it's hard to how do you peel off Turner from Bets from Freeman, Like, I don't know, I mean, unless two guys get hurt and one guy carries them, and that's that's a lot to ask.
It's that young different store here.
You got Garrett Cole, of course, you know the Yankee at the top of the board American League of plus four twenty five. In the America League, you also got Shane Bieber plus seven fifty on the consensus line. You got Robbie Ray to repeat over at plus eight hundred. So those are kind of the favorites. I still go to Lucas Giolito at ten to one. I like those odds there, But for me, the really fun one is going down to Justin Verlander, who the consensus is plus
sixteen hundred. But at bet MGM, you can get this at twenty to one. If fan do, we can get it to twenty to one. Verlander, if he gets back to that forum where he's striking out two hundred and ninety guys, three hundred guys and he's got a two ERA and a one point zero something whip, Justin Verlander could easily get back.
And he's a great narrative story.
He's, you know, the crown Jewel if you will, on a Hall of Fame career coming back from Tommy John Because you know, Garret Cole did struggle sometimes, Shane Bieber did struggle. Both had the sticky stuff issues, right we've got Verlander coming back here. To me, he's the most exciting long shot. Glito is the one I like who's a little bit more in between. But to me, Verlander especially, we can get him at twenty to one in some places.
That's the dude.
I want to put money on Early and I have, and I've a post will put money on Gilito. So anybody I'm talking about today, I've made investments and then same thing from like ten dollars to one hundred dollars. Just to be transparent, because I don't try to advise anything that I'm not in because I think that's called bad advice. Now, when you're looking at this market, anything pop out to you in the American lead, Well.
I love the Lucasgilido. One that would be I have not made all of my futures bets.
That will be.
One that I make on Lucasgilito. I was around him multiple times in White Sox camp. He looks as jacked as he's ever done before. Also, you know, this is a weird, dumb thing, but like it really seemed like arbitration was like a.
Weight on him.
I saw him the day he signed his arbitration and he seemed like the monkey was off his back. He seems so much more relaxed. The team's gonna be more reliant on him as well. Lid lance Lynn going down that that's probably my absolute favorite. I mean, you know, both of the great ones. Verlander two, it's the sneakiest one out there, and getting you know, plus two thousand is such a good bet as far as Ale the only other one. But I never make bets on like repeats,
especially for a guy that popped like this. But you know, Robbie Ray going to Seattle. It's kind of interesting, but I'm probably not doing it. Odds are all right, bet MGM has given you twelve to one, but you know, I don't know, Like I think he will be important and he will be in the race. This would be one where it's like finishing, you know, could I get a bet on finishing top three in the cy Young I would like that.
But Jillie in some places, yeah you can. Jilli Verlander, I think are the ones.
In the National League.
I got Corbyn Burns a plus six hundred is the favorite consensus wise, and then Sure's are a plus six fifty. These odds have changed significantly over the last forty eight hours after the Jacob deGrom news because Dagram was up there as well. That has now changed a lot. You've got Woodroff at plus eight hundred. I keep landing on Walker Buehler, who I think really has a shot to win twenty games, which is a feat we don't see very often. Bullpen's really good, the offense is really good.
The division at the bottom part is a little weak. Walker Buler plus seven fifty. You can get him a plus nine hundred on MGM. To me, Walker Buehler's where I want to make my investment in the National League. I don't love a ton of the other guys outside of him. You know, Burns and Sures are always good investments if you want to invest in them, that's fine. Max Free to plus eleven hundred. Maybe, just maybe he takes another step forward, but I don't know in the
National League. To me, I'm just trying to keep it simple and to me, it's Walker Buehler's race to lose this year. I think this is his quote unquote Cy Young season after contending and being in that conversation last year, what do you think about national leagues?
I know it would have been to Grom, would have been to Grom for me.
Well, it's a problem, I mean de Grom at this point, you know what kind of it's.
Just no, no, I mean you're not now, You're not now Suzier plus seven hundred, you know where you say Buehler. I like Schurzer, and the odds are not that far off, even though it's a little bit of banged upness. I like the Schurzer one probably my favorite. But you mentioned the other guy, like and you can get a twenty five to one on fan duel right now? Is Max Freid just same repeat he stuff, Go back to the brain, go back to the braves.
See him pick up a bunch of wins.
You know, if he jumps into fifteen sixteen wins on one of the best teams in the NL and he is the lynch pin to it that. I think he is a really good long shot guy for that award because there's not a lot of arms, and there's a lot of injuries that are surrounding that area. There's probably someone we're not even talking about or thinking about. But Max and Freed would be my both.
Maxes, I'll see.
Yep, those would be my my money one and my long shot one.
All right, let's move over to Rookie of the Year.
This is exciting because this is one you might want to jump on as soon as you listen to the podcast before it changes. So Bobby Wood Junior in the American League at plus two eighties and the consensus, then you got torcos In a plus five hundred, Julio Rodriguez a plus five fifty. We we just found out before recording is going to break with the team and be there opening day. Normally, when it comes to Rookie of the Year, I waited out a little bit. I've already
put money on Bobby Witt. I've already put money on Julio. I put bigger money on Julio because it's a bigger payoff potentially, because I think there's that there's that path for him.
But I still think Bobby Wit deserves to be the favorite.
I think he is going to actually be the favorite who wins, which is also something that doesn't happen very often. A couple of years ago, I remember having arguments with people about Gavin Lux was basically a two to one favorite for Rookie of the Year. I said, guys, he's missed all this development time in twenty twenty, all the crazy covid uff I don't even know. I think we might invest in a pitcher or something like that. It might be easier to invest in this guy. We're all
giving him the award spoiler alert, he didn't win. And now I think Bobby Witt is that guy that might be able to buck that trend where the favorite is the favorite for reason, and he might be the wire to wire favorite too. But Julio could get in that conversation that you've got some other guys in the American League too, you think you can compete.
Well, I mean, yeah, you got Spencer Torkolsen in there. That's gonna be from day one, you know, and hitting it a pretty prominent piece of the lineup. Adley is going to be up there at some point. Adley's impossible though, because he's not day one and the Orioles are going to be atrocious. You could throw O'Neill crew that's NL. There was one other No I got all n l.
Other guys is probably out there too, but he is very starting to eat. I don't like Yeah, Jeremy Panya, Riley Green's hurt already it's to me, it's a favorite kind of race in the AL.
In the AL there it is the three guys. Bobby Witt is the only one I would feel putting hard cash on, like really good cash. And the best odds are currently DraftKings at three ten plus three ten bet and GM has got three hundred, which is pretty decent. That would be my hard odds. If I want, and I do, by the way, to have a fun bet, I gotta go Julio Rodriguez as well, because Julio is electric and this team. You know, when you look at these teams as well, here look at the top three
rookie guys, Torque Tigers, Wit Royals, Julio Mariners. What's the difference between these teams? The Mariners are hands down the best team here, and that is something that is going to carry a little bit of weight as far as like statistically if these guys are close. But Julio Rodriguez at plus six hundred on DraftKings right now, right now, as this has been announced, this all could change. Like you said before, I like Julio as a long bet. I really like Bobby Witt, and if I wanted to
just feel comfortable getting a win. You could go torque, but then I feel like you're really eating into your potential money. I would go high bet like this would of all the stuff we've done, I wouldn't be like big unit betting. This would be a big unit bet for me on Bobby Witt. And then I would go smaller, you know, maybe cut it in half since it's plus six hundred on Julio Rodriguez and.
You know, cash it at the end of the year.
This is the best one, that's the most that's my favorite.
One is the Rookie of the Year one. But no surprise for me.
Oh absolutely.
And like I said, Julio, I think you make a great point there, which is Seattle's probably gonna be the most you know, public team that's going to get a lot of attention potentially, and Rodriguez will go along with that. That's a really good situation a wager on. And the National League it's a little murkier. Seya Suzuki is at plus three fifty. I'm not running there Anyo. Cruz plus four hundred. He's starting the year in the minor leagues.
This might be the time to bet on him if you want to get in while he's learning to play the outfit a little bit in Triple A. In the National League not clearer. You've got names like Kybert Ruiz, Joey Part. I hate betting on catches. To me, the only guy that I've bet on so far for the National League is Hunter Green at plus eight hundred. I like the I know he's a pitcher. Sometimes that could be a dicey thing, but he is starting in that rotation.
I think the pitches well, he'll probably leave him in there the entire season. Maybe he'll max out at one hundred and sixty innings potentially this year, somewhere around there. I think that would be enough to get it done the National League because it's not a great crop unless somebody really pops out of nowhere. So Hunter Green's my guy in the NL. Welsh, do you have a guy in the National League so young race.
I do want to say, I think Suzuki is the safe bet to play. I don't see an issue making that bet, even though he's not as fun or anything like that. I just don't see the issue making it. You get plus three to eighty over on DraftKings right now.
Here's I got?
Oh, by the way, on the hundred green one. Actually like Nicolodolo a little bit better. I think he's a better pitcher and he's going to be fifth in the rotation and a rookie. But the deeper guy that I would try to make a bet on. You want to talk about guys coming out of nowhere. We still haven't heard if he is going to break, but it might be soon. But Bryson Stott, Bryson Stott with the Phillies, they've talked about him being a guy that was going
to break camp as the basement. He's a shortstop, he is, he's super patient, he walks, he doesn't strike out, he can jump into homers and this is another high team win. And he's plus one thousand, you know, ten times on on DraftKings right now if you wanted to jump on that.
So I like Stuck.
That's a much more wide open race. So I might take some chances, some liberties with the Rookie of the Year award because I don't think it's locked in your Owneil Cruiz one is a good one, but I would probably go Suzuki and then I would throw a big futures on Stott.
All right, let's switch Gears Welsh to the division winners. Most of the favorites are minus money, so you're not gonna get a whole lot of juice there. But what you want to do is look for ones that have potential to me the ones that stick out right away. If things do break out for the Yankees and they maybe acquire another pitcher, plus two to fifty, that's something you could bet on, but it's the Yankees, so you're always gonna have that premium. However, the consensus is plus
two to fifty. The Padres plus three twenty five. That's an interesting one because with this pitching staff, if they all are right, and we're talking Darvish, Manaia, Smell, Clevenger, potentially Musgrove was great last year, that's a formidable rotation. If they stay healthy and Tatis comes back and is Tatis and they just tread water offensively for the first few months, Padres at plus three twenty five are not impossible.
Neither of the Angels of plus three fifty.
If they get some pitching with Otani, with Cindergaard, with Sandoval, those guys are certainly in it as well. And maybe you can make a case for the Phillies with de Gramou two plus four to fifty. If you want to get a little funky there, if you think that the Braves aren't as good as they were last year, or without Freddy Freeman, or however you want to see that.
I don't.
But the Angels at plus three fifty, the Padres a plus three twenty five, the Yankees at plus two to fifty. Those are the few division teams winners potentially in terms of numbers I think you can get behind. Others are all you know, Dodgers are minus two hundred. That ship is sailed already, So anything else stick out to you When it comes to division winners.
Well, no, I think you nailed them.
I mean, if you wanted to get I could see Marinders fans, you can always throw out a plus four to fifty if crazy, you know, I mean, if you wanted to get crazy. This is not the place where I'm looking to get crazy. And you're gonna just have to bite, you know, some of that juice. But just you know, take your money home and maybe make some bigger bets, especially on the big dogs if you're comfortable. You know, Astro's one sixty two. But now I think you nail the most.
I mean.
The other thing you can get tricky with is just like a really good division with a couple of teams that are vuying for that same spot.
You know.
So if you're looking at like the Mets and Braves and you just go, well, you know, the Mets at one seventy five, with everything that they've done, I'm going to take that bet. As Dagrom comes back and they're gonna be able to win this division, bam, you're getting some plus money on that.
But now you nailed it.
If you want to bet the Dodgers for anything, you bet them to win the National League at plus two to twenty five. Right now, the Astros are up at the top at plus four fifty, the J's at plus four seventy five in the American League, the Braves to repeat to go to the World's Series again plus five hundred. Same thing with the White Sox. Who I'm I'm in that White Sox world. Still, I'm still buying the White Sox, White Sox and Dodgers right now. Feel right to me.
That's where I'd be putting my money. But for you Welsh, who do you want to win those American League and National leg where would you be putting your money. I mean, maybe it's on a team like Milwaukee too. That pitching is spectacular. They are plus seven hundred. That would be a fun one, and you can write that narrative because in a short series that pitching could be absolutely electric, especially if Yellish bounces back and becomes the player he was a couple of years ago.
Yeah, I mean I would throw out the Padres.
Is all crazy?
It is, because I just want to point this out. The Padres have an insane rotation of depth with guys like Darvish and Snell, and obviously there's question marks that are always going. But you put them in a small series against anyone, and they could throw out Joe muskro of you, Darvish and Blake Snell. Then the next series they could throw out Clevenger and Sean Manaya. Plus they're
going to get Fernando Tatis Junior back. That actually might be one of my favorites at plus eight point fifty as far as NL goes al, I kind of like the Blue Jays at four to seventy five. I think that's a fun one. I might throw in the Yankees as well as plus five to fifty. I'm probably this is another spot I wouldn't be getting too crazy. The Padres are as crazy as I'm gonna get at plus eight fifty.
Yeah, Padres a good one. Brewers, I think are a good one too.
Let's go to the World Series winner Dodgers, obviously the favorites of four to seventy five. On the plus side, you've got plus eight seventy five for the Blue Jays, which I understand, the Astros at ten to one, the Yankees are eleven to one. Same with the Braves and White Sox. I'm still going with the White Sox. I believe in the White Sox this year. I think it's their turn to kind of learn. And you know, these Dodgers, as great as they are, you know what if Kershaw falters again and gets.
Hurt, what's the back of that rotation? Like, I don't know.
In a short series, they worry me a little bit more. And I think that when I'm looking, I'm trying to look for those teams that might be that short series pitching. The White Sox can throw g Lito, lind Cease and Copak at you.
That's a lot.
That is a lot, so for me That's where I'm going at plus eleven hundred. That's my favorite wager on the board. Do you have a favorite that you like in terms of where you might put your money early for World Series.
Welsh, I think I'm sticking with I mean, like, I just want to point out, like the Dodgers I think are just synonymous with this and you just kind of go with them unanimously. I'm putting any bet on them because I think they're ridiculou But look at those Blue Jays at eight seventy five. They've continuously been aggressive in the market. They replaced Robbie Ray with Kevin Gossman, which I really like that move. You've got Barrios in there.
Plus they're still trying to be aggressive. There's still rumors out there of Jose Ramirez. What happens if they go out and acquire Jose Ramirez at the trade deadline, if no extension with him is done and they've got the assets to do it. They seem hyper, hyper aggressive. They've got some bullpen, they've got a good rotation, and they've got a fantastic offense of stars that are out there that almost you know, nine to one.
I like the Blue Jays.
All right, there you have it, everybody, make sure you head over to Bettingpros dot com so you can take a look at all these consensus lines and every day that prop bet cheat sheet will be out there for you.
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It's gonna be wide open. It's gonna be super fun. I can't wait to do it and hope you guys are excited about it as well. That'll do it for us, But the story of the game goes on for the Welsh. I'm Joey p. We'll see you next time. Kids,