It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros. Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's me Joey p Joe Pi Zapia, and today we got some more Major League Baseball for you. We're talking season long props with one of my favorite people. You know him from in this league. You know him as one of the leaders, if not the leader of the IT army, let's be honest.
And you also know him as the host of Prospect One, the greatest prospect show you'll ever find and the coolest shirt here with the prospects assembled that is amazing copyright infringement to the side. He's the one, the only, my good friend, the Welsh Welsh. How are you, my friend? What's going on, Joey, what's up, buddy?
Don't mention copyright. It's totally okay. It's just totally fine, totally shirt that you can buy. Yes, what's up, buddy? Thank you how much for having me. Glad to be back on the Pros with the Joe.
I know that's right. Pros with the Joe. That's how we roll here. And you know it's funny because we talked about, you know, coming on for a show and things like that. You said, well, I don't know betting and stuff like that. But to me, the person you want to talk to when it comes to props is a fantasy person, especially when you're going to talk about some of the rookie of the year stuff today too, because you handle all the prospects and you can kind
of tell us where to put our money. But also, I think fantasy people have the best opportunity to give you the best information when it comes to who's the hit leader this year, who's the k leader, who is progressing in that fashion, because that is a little bit deeper. That's more about digging into the stats and digging into the numbers and more than just the trends and the recent bias and things like that. And I think it takes a really good fantasy person that is you, my friend.
So I wanted to chat for you about this. How are you enjoying the baseball season?
First off, Oh, that's a loaded question.
It's a loaded question. I know what it's full of. And I want to ask you because there's been some good and some bad so far this year. So I'm curious what's your take on the year in twenty twenty one.
You know, I don't ironically, maybe to some people like I don't want to be like the negative guy, even though I can be kind of a negative guy because there's so much great stuff about it. But I think it's been a loaded year across the board. There's so many things that show how much baseball is working against itself, which really bothered me. From the littlest thing. John, I was just talking about this on the Ende Fantasy Baseball podcast, Like you go and look at Key Brian Hayes losing
a home run because of the base thing. I know it's like a technicality, but it's such a silly thing that hurts baseball. You think it's good for baseball for Kee Brian Hayes to literally hit a home run over the wall, and then you have this little like foot issue. Bobby Witt had the exactly, it's the same day, the same day Bobby Witt had it. That's not good for baseball. The spider, you know, the all of the sticky and
that type of stuff, it's not good for baseball. The COVID issues, there's been so much negativity in that front that it's made it to enjoy baseball. Also, my team Arizona Diamondbacks are the biggest garbage pile in baseball, which has made it tough. But at the end of the day, I love it and I've expanded, you know, my fantasy stuff into I'm literally doing everything from points to dynasty, to head to head to like weird Big sixteen twenty four. I do all the different leagues to really kind of
expand how I'm playing. But you know, Joe, can I ask you one question? Since the Bedding Show, I was just talking to someone about this and we were talking about the industry. As you're asking me how I'm enjoying the baseball season, Like, I'm enjoying it fine with all the negativities that come with it and all of the
adjustments that you have to do. But you know, the DFS world, in the gambling world is very unique and interesting to me that the one thing I was saying, and I've always harped on and you agree with me, is like baseball should be fun like you want, and fantasy should be fun. By the way I play fantasy,
it should be fun. I feel like more than ever the fun has escaped fantasy when it has come to gambling and DFS it's more serious, it's than ever been it's ever been because it's big money and there's stuff like that. But how like, have you ever tackled how do you bring the fun back into dfs? Not just same question, you know what?
For me, honestly, I think the in game betting is super fun where you're just watching a game and you can kind of get involved in that and kind of ride that wave. I think that's very different. That's really
evolved and kind of taking on. And for those of you who don't know what I mean, when you're watching a game, you can literally get in there and start to make bets about the over unders changing or you know whether or not another team's going to take the lead, or I mean, it's crazy some of the things that are available to you in the game as things are going on or really kind of changing that. I think
it all depends on how you look at it. If you are somebody that does it as you know, a very super serious thing, or if it's more of a fun thing. And I think that's more for the individual to keep it fun. The TDFs to me, has been more fun than season long baseball, to be honest with you,
because the season long baseball injury train is brutal. I just want to go out there some nights and just put a lineup together, I like, and not have to worry about drops and ads and trades and who's going on the IL and replacing this player and all that stuff and all that work and all the investment going down the drink because I got I got my three
best players in the IL. And I think that's where the dfs and really starts to, you know, come in and change things from a from a betting wagering perspective where you're playing the game differently. So I actually prefer the hyper focus of MLB dfs and some of the wagering than to the other stuff. Necessarily, this season long baseball, especially the RODO is a bit of a grind by comparison. I think it's a really good conversation.
It is, and I think it comes back and the reason I asked it also not just because this is like you know, we're talking gambling and betting and stuff like that, but like you know, you asked me, like, how am I enjoying the season more and more? For people like us? And I think for more people in general is I think when you ask that question, it's not just about like, you know, the sentinity of the game and blaha and baseball it's not helping itself, but
let the kids play. It's not even just necessarily about that. It's also it's intertwining because I think when you ask someone like, hey, are you enjoying the season, they might answer that from a gambling perspective. You know, Oh, I'm arguing with people and I'm not making money and this site didn't help me get this, or I'm just on
a bad streak. Like the exterior things that we do to have fun, and yes, they can be businesses and they can be lifestyles and likelihood, to be honest with you, but like the way people speak about their enjoyment of the game can be skewed by that that can be the impetus to all of those issues. And you know, I just I always reiterate there can be be money on the line, and I think how much money you put on the line should also be dictated by the
level of enjoyment in these games that we play. And you know, I think when people put more money on the line than they should, or they overextend themselves by doing too much, you lose focus and you have less fun. And then that's sometimes where burnout comes in, because you should want to have as much fun as possible no matter what you're doing and what type of money is on the line. You want to keep within your ability to also enjoy the thing that you're doing.
Yeah, and I think part of that joy is also knowing when to make the wage. Like, for instance, you know, I loved Otani coming into this year for MVP, but I wasn't getting bed at twenty to one or thirty or one before the season. I needed to see a little bit. And then the challenge to me is watching things evolve and then getting in at the right time.
Like I love the Brewers, but I didn't wager on them yet, and Yelich got hurt and I was happy I didn't, and then Yelich came back, and then Flowerty got hurt, and the Milwaukee Brewers pictures look really good, and I started to change my tune a little bit. But I'm still waiting. So I got in on Otani, I haven't gotten in on the Brewers. There's some other
things that I'm looking at right now. We're gonna try to kind of look at them as well today and talk about some of these individuals, because I think a third plus into the season, basically here we are in that sense, and now's the time where you have a better picture of where things are. You have a better
picture two of injuries and how they've affected things. So let's start with most hits now on the betting pros and the consensus line here, DJ Lemayhew was the best odds at plus eight hundred, then wit Merrifield, wit Meryfield, big fan always at ten to one, Trey Turner at eleven to one, Mookie Bets twelve to one, and Mookie has struggled quite a bit. Lindor Tim Anderson, these were some other names that were kind of out there, but obviously going in, wit Marryfield was still my pick going in.
That was the guy that I thought people should be leaning towards if they wanted to make this wager. Is it still wit Maryfield for you or do you see somebody else kind of emerging? As you know, this guy really has the inroads to be the hit leader of Major League Baseball because we've had some phenomenal performances so far in the first two months of the season. Yeah.
I mean, I think there's there's a couple in line with here if you're talking about like where we stand now and if I were, you know, trying to jump in and whatever that could be. You know, someone I think that's making a crazy case right now and you never would have bet them is actually Cedric Mullins, who is a third in baseball in hits with seventy five,
and he's just been next level. But you know, I think preseason I might have gone DJ Lemayhew, you know, mister you know, mister, no laun changle and just hit hit hit, hit hit. That would have been guy. What
a concept Welsh, Yeah, exactly, it could work. But trade Turner would be the guy for me that I would look at in this because he's currently fourth in baseball or at least tied for fourth with ikf Isa Isaiah kind of flavor what's up spot, and Turner is fourth in that right now, and he's right on the heels of the surprising leader in hits in baseball, Adam Fraser, who's probably going to be one of the first people
traded by the trade deadlines. So I mean, I think at this moment, if I'm you know, if I'm diving in it's trade. Turner is the guy for me that I wold feel best about. But I would I probably would have gone in La Mayhew.
So if you still have, i mean, with Fraser and some of these eccentric mollins of guys you'd expect to be there, if you could still go out there and make that Trey Turner wager at reasonable let's say even a five to one in some spots, would that be a wager you'd be willing to go for? Yeah?
With Turner, I mean, the only thing holding him back, which I actually think plays really well into the bet that you're talking about, like your bet here if it was like plus one thousand, is Trey Turner's injury history. Like that is the one thing that you would have to consider when you're doing it. But yeah, I mean, I think he's been otherworldly and he's making everything happen.
He's hitting over three hundred and the names above him, by the way, are just not as trustworthy names Cedric Mullins, Adam Fraser and even Nick cass Casianos isn't necessarily a He's not the pillar of hits. He's not the pillar of average and he's hitting three fifty seven. There's no way that's gonna last. And the guys that are on his heels, there's some interesting ones that are in there.
I mean, Vladimir Guerrero Junior is in that. But based on these guys that we're talking about, Yeah, I think Trey Turner would be my bet Wit would be number two. Obviously, LeMay Hugh's off of this and I mean sant Lendoor on this list like what a what a bye?
And this is what we're trying to do. We're trying to take where things were in the beginning of the season and kind of take the temperature of them now. And the same thing goes for the home runs, because going into the season, you'd get Vladdie for plus forty four forty four to one. Oh yea forty four hundred unbelievable going into the season for Vla Guerrero Junior, right, some of the favorites for Cody Bellinger, Jose Ramirez, Fernando Tatis was it minus one twenty four, Ronald Acunya one
eighteen so Akunya Tatist obviously still up there. Otani vlad still in this conversation too, so in your mind right now, seeing what you've seen so far, who do you think at the end is going when the dust cell is going to lead the major leagues in home runs?
I legit AM going to have a hard time coming off of Vladimir Carrera Junior. I mean this has been a big thing of Oh. I mean, you know we've been doing shows for years. Oh yeah, Like I've watched Vladimir Guerrero, you know, just come up through the miners, and I got to spend a decent amount of time seeing him in person when he was out here in Arizona during the Arizona Fall League. I I think in twenty eighteen it was and the one thing that would
maybe seventeen, it doesn't matter. The one thing I would stand out about him is he has some of the best plate presents you've ever seen. He hits the ball incredibly hard, but he was obviously looking for his spot. But the negative on him for everybody was like, oh, he's just not getting the ball in the air launch angle. So he has this like mediocre year where people start going, Okay, you know, he's a really good talent, but he's overrated. He doesn't hit homers, and this is me as a
prospect person. You know, prospects a symbol I say, I tell you, I say, And this would be the same thing I would I would bring up with if we were going to talk about Jared kell Nick, I would say, listen, you've got to let the process happen and the people that have focused on these minor leaguers and if you believe and you kind of trust in what they say, like follow their path and if if I happen to be one of those people, I've like been steadfast to say,
like Blaim mcgerre Junior is going to be a star, Like I'm not worried about having a seven degree launch angle or anything like that. Like he's going to hit the ball hard, he's going to mash. He worked on his body, and he looks like one of the best players in baseball right now, and he's crushing homers. That's the only thing that people were taking away from him. And he's got a three thirty five average, So all of that to be said. Vladimir Guerrero would be my
bet on this. The Otani one is super fun, though, but you know where the payout was for a lot of people wouldn't have been like MVP or home run leader was I want to say that the Otani home run total was set at like twenty and a half and we might get that by like the extra week. Yeah, we're gonna hit that by like next week, so that's okay. And I would have taken I would love to tell you I would have sat here and take taken Otani's MVP.
I probably wouldn't have. I won one hundred percent the smash that Otani over twenty because this was one of my big my big predictions, my bold predictions on the year was Otani was gonna go twenty five plus on Homer's and that seems insanely silly now, but uh, you know, if you thought about the preseason with health and being able to continue their billing.
It sure you know. And the thing I keep coming back and I got inven Otani. I put my trips down at six to one, six and a half to one, which I was very pleased because now that's a lot. Forget it like he's gonna be minus at some point. And I'm gonna ask you this question and I want your take on it, and then we'll move on to the next category here, because no matter what Vlad does. If Otani is within you know, ten percent of it
and pitching, how does Vlad compete for the MVP. Like that's the thing I can't wrap my mind around of Lad Guerrero MVP as long as Otani keeps some kind of pace with him.
Right because he doesn't. He doesn't, I mean he Otani has been the leader of the MVP race.
For especially with Trout going down to that really maximized it too, because you took that other guy who was on the same team, and then you start to write the narrative of well, you know, no, Trout, look at what the guy's doing, and he's did in four hundred said we put bombs last night's crazy.
It's at minimum four weeks. He's been the leader at the MVP, and he's so far along in this race right now that you can't in my eyes, this is just me. You can't talk about anybody keeping pace with Otani. You have to talk about a guy going so far in above and beyond Otani to do this, because they'll be got Akunya lad Tatis. They're gonna have more Homers, They're gonna have a couple of them, will have some more stolen bases, they'll have they'll have at least ten
to twenty percent more offensive production at minimum. Okay, but that's not enough because Atani is also doing it on the mound, and he is an elite hit right now, We're not even talking about a guy that's like he's utility only and he's a top ten Fantasy player right now in season long. And then you put him on the mound and he's putting up big strikeout games. There's no one remotely close. It's a huge payoff if you bet the MVP. And if I was doing it right now,
I'm getting any plus odds. I'm still going Otani because you know, I mean, if you wanted to go on another spot, I would look at like Tatis Junior. But I don't think Vlad is going to do it. Even if he leads a league in home runs, that doesn't really matter to me. I mean maybe triple crown. I suppose triple crown is the thing that keeps it in it, But even then I don't think.
I think.
Pitching just changes the whole nation.
Legit, I would love to know what people think about this, because I legit think Vlad could have the triple crown, and I still think he doesn't win MVP over that.
That's fascinating. I'm gonna have to steal that for a conversation on tomorrow's leading off on Fantasy Pros, because that is a great question. If Lad wins a triple crown, is that enough still? I don't know if it is.
Assuming O Tawni like finishes like the season.
A dozen wins or something like that, he strikes out one hundred and seventy guys. I mean, it's just when you're playing two ways, I just don't know.
He would be putting out the shares. You know, he would be putting up two seasons worth of production at two different positions of what people would have got. He legit could have forty homers, twenty stolen bases, he could have eight to ten wins with a bunch of strikeouts. It's what you would think about him over two years. And by the way, it's two different positions doing this, So triple Crown Vlad versus SUPERSTARO Tani, I just don't know. And that's the closest I think you can get.
Yeah, that's a great conversation to have stolen bases obviously, going into the air at Alberto Mondesa was his favorite at minus one twenty five. But I don't know if he's gonna have enough games to play really even to get into this conversation, that's the problem. It's like, you know, people thought he might steal, you know, fifty sixty bases. We're lucky if he plays fifty sixty games. At this point, Trey Turner was at plus four point fifty, Ronald Acunia
plus six hundred, with Maryfield plus seven. Fernando tuttis junior in this conversation, as well as Boba Schett. But if you had to put the money down right now, who do you think is going to lead the league the rest of the season here and cumulatively in stolen bases? Who would be that guy for you? And again taking Trey Turner's injury history even into.
Account, Yeah, I mean I lean to wit Merrifield, and I hate being the guy that's like picking the guy at the top. But I mean, he's got four more
stolen bases than any other player. And even though if I think an argument you could say is like if I think Trey Turner is going to have the most hits, that gives more on base opportunities, but he's just stealing at like a little bit less of a clip where you know, the Royals are manufacturing as much as possible, and I think Witt is in that discussion, has less of an injury history, and you know, once the Royals get going, they run almost more than anybody, and if
Mondessy comes back healthy at some point, you know they're going to want to continue to go. I think Witt has a great chance. Tree Turner obviously has to be put in that if you're going for like more wild card. I don't know. I think I think a Tim Anderson could be back in that race. He's not that far off. He's got ten stolen bases, and he's got a decent amount at least thirty less at bats in wit Mayfield
that could account to a couple more. I think, so cumulative, I would go with Wit, But if I were trying to make some money, I don't hate the rest of season on Tim Anderson.
All right, very good. Let's move and switch gears to the pitchers here, and let's start with major league winners in terms of win total. Garrett Cole plus nine hundred,
Jacob de grond plus twelve. Trevor Bauer plus thirteen obviously a pretty usual suspects there, Beaver plus thirteen, Jack Flower, you started off really great, was at plus fifteen walker Bueller's at plus fifteen hundred also, But you know, the trouble is with this one is you need the other factors, the bullpen, need the run support, and you need to
pitch well. And God knows, Jacob de Grom's pitch as well as any human being possibly could and win totals always seem to be the thing that he is chasing. So in your opinion, even with all the new stuff, now you're throwing in this wrinkle where with Bauer and Cole and all the well, who's got the sticky stuff from the hat and the glove and who's got all the special spinny the spinny goo that you put all
over the baseballs. I guess here's the question is does this start to kind of creep in and make you wonder, all right, who really is completely legit and who is going to possibly fall off? Or is it a little bit of overrated nonsense when at the end of the.
Day, let me do my best Garrett Cole impression.
Uh good, Yeah, no, I think if he wasn't prepared for the question, as if he didn't know that that question.
That's the funny part, right, It's like he wasn't prepared, like nobody said, hey, Garrett, they might ask you about this, you might want to have an answer kind of in the can.
Right.
It's one of the most we just on I Tail Baseball podcast, We just watch it. I had not watch the whole video. I watched like the first twenty seconds because it was like, it's enough.
You watch the.
Whole thing, and it is like one of the most insane lack of preparation to answer a question, and it's one of those if you political candidate, someone would be like, get off the stay. They would have cut his mic. They would have pulled off, they'd cut to a commercial. There's no way. But like Garrett Cole already showed some signs and you can see some of the relative concerns that are out there. You know, I think you just
spend rate dropped a decent amount. You saw Bowers drop a decent amount that I'm very actually, very very curious to see where Garrett Cole is going to go the rest of the year. If I were picking on this and this is this seems wild because he's like rampant with it. I'd actually go with to Grom.
Yeah.
And actually someone had quote tweeted a video of de Groam kind of walking and like touching his side or whatever, and they were like, oh, you want to say de Grom doesn't do this, blah blah blah. And Thomas Nido, who was with the team, he goes out and he goes I can guarantee you this guy does nothing. He is the most legit picture. De Grom needs nothing else.
I think when you if you do actually truly bring down the pool of guys and you bring down two levels, Jacob de Gram has an opportunity to kind of rise up, the crop rises up. And also I'd say that is.
Can the Mets rise up with the wins and all that?
That's the big thing. And I think Lindor has been rock bottom for so long that I think signs are starting to pick that. I think Lindor is going to start to come around. And as Lindor comes around, you're gonna have that second stretch, and I think Debram is going to finally pick up more wins. If I was picking another one, I probably go Bouer. Uh, you know Bower has been able to do this. It's the Dodgers.
They're going to collect wins just left and right. So I mean, I'm sitting at the top of the pool here obviously of players like Flirty is going to be out until the All Star break, so he's not even an option.
And he's a lot of good pictures too. He's still got you Darvish in this mix, you know, obviously, you know he's pitched very well this year too. Nobody thought Carls or Down would be what he is. I think the guys in the White Sox always have a chance too, because I look at the combination of run support and bolepen and things like that, and we go, well, you know, lance Lynn Gilito, if everyone just kind of flies through the last couple of months of the season, maybe those guys gonna start.
You want a dark horse one. You want a dark horse one is Juliarius with the Dodgers. You know, you think of all the other pitchers with the.
Dodgers, because he's been terrific this year.
He's tied for the most wins in baseball right now, and think of the Division Rockies Diamonback's worst in baseball right now. Obviously you've got the Padres and the Giants perform decent fire expectations. Though, Yeah, Julio Urias has been one of the best pitchers in one of the more big breakout stars from this past year that I think.
Arias where he's at, and the continuation, especially if you look at the guys that are like, you know, Bieber's in there, you can't discount Bieber, Aaron Savali's in there. A real dark horse wan would be Julio Arias.
All right, let's move on to some of the save leaders here. Liam Hendrix was leading the pack with plus six point fifty, world As Chapman seven to fifty, Josh Hayter plus eight hundred. Then you have rycee Oglecias, Kenley Jansen, Edwin Diaz. So I know saves can be such an
arbitrary thing, a very difficult thing to wager on. But right now, looking at where guys are in terms of totals and where you project them to be as the season goes on, who do you think is going to lead the league in saves when all of a said and done.
Well, Milanson's already got a three save lead and he's on one of the best teams in baseball. I just don't know how you go against it. Now, I would say the thing that is not I mean that's no, but it's not. But he's But it's not like it's Milansen on the Royals or Milanson on you know, I'm trying to even look at the Angels or something like that. This is Mlanson on the Padres, who again, as I point out, with the Dodgers, it's in a great division
to kind of keep collecting. The thing that holds against him is that there are guys in the wings that I don't think they'd be afraid to go to. Like I think he has a shorter leash even though you stay nineteen games, not even through mid June. I feel like a team is going to give this guy more of a leash than people want. So Milanson, I think has got to be the guy that is still the big front runner. But you know, don't look now, Kenlly Jansen is having insane year, but he's six saves behind.
But it's the Dodger. So I'm going on like win teams like Hendrix is in there. I think Rays is gonna tap down a little bit. I think there's competition with Barnes. I don't know Chicago can win enough for Craig Kimberl. So I like, I like Mulanson or Jansen. If if if I were possibly insane enough to bet saves.
Well, I was just gonna say to me, this is always the one I'd run away from because it is so arbitrary. Those opportunities can be so difficult, And certainly there's so many guys who are right there, and the number is gonna be so close. You know, there's gonna be like one save two save difference between these guys at the end. Now, the thing you really want to talk about is pitcher strikeouts, and god knows we've got
a ton of those. I mean, between Corbyn Burns and Jacob de Gram and Garret Cole and Bieber and everybody in between. Giolito Shurez are looking like Schrzer again going into things. Jacob deGrom plus four twenty five, plus four to fifty for Garrett Cole, plus six fifty for Bieber, Trevor Bauer plus seven to fifty. Then you have Giolito plus eight and Max Scherz are at ten to one
at plus one thousand. So as the board looks right now taking health, taking the new cruelty in baseball, cracking down potentially on the guys with the spitty balls and then the special substances. Who do you think, at the end of the day is the guy at the top of the hill when it comes to cas.
Well, I just can't go against Beiab. It's impossible to go against Beiab right now with how he's with how he's performed. There is I mean, I still love de Grom. That would be I mean, your easy bets pending where the money is is that play? Because de Gram also, by the way, has the best k per nine in baseball at fourteen four because he's only pitched as.
We're recording he starts right, Yeah, he's only pitched fifty I believe, fifty eight innings.
He has ninety three strikeouts compared to the leader in Bieber, who is one hundred and twenty two strikeouts in eighty five innings. But let me throw a secondary name at you again. If you're looking for just big payoffs for the rest of the season, how about Corbyn Burns. Because if you move down.
Saw Young coming into the season.
And you moved down the qualifications.
My big concern is what is Corbyn Burns after one hundred and twenty innings this year? That's what I worry about a little bit.
And it's a great question. But if you are talking rest of the season, you're willing to go with it. Corbyn Burns is the second best k per nine behind Degram at fourteen to two. He's got a time. He has more strikeouts currently just you know, just a not She's got ninety four. He must take the grounds ninety three and he missed some times. So I mean, if you look at the top, what is this like the top seven in strikeouts in baseball? They've all got seventy
five or more innings except for Corbyn Burns. He has ninety four strikeouts or six guys that have one hundred strikeouts or more. The next guy is Corbyn Burns. So you know where are my bets pending odds. Bieber is clear and far away. You know, one hundred and twenty two, five more than Tyler Glass now and he's already you know, thirty more. They're twenty nine more than Jacob de Grom, So you go Bieber to Grom. But if I want some money play. It's Corbyn Burns. Corbin Burns is a
strikeout machine, and they got to press him. He looks better than he's ever done before. He's missed some times, so he's not looking like he's gonna press over two hundred innings. That would be my one.
Here's a here's something I want to throw up before we get to Rookie of the Year. I'm maybe a conspiracy and spirau theorist for a moment, if I may, that they sent down casted hero again, because it's time to put him in a package to get some more offense before he completely bottoms out in the major leagues where somebody looks at him and says, Okay, we're gonna have you know, maybe we can get this kid right.
He's still very young. Let's get him back. Maybe just a change of I don't know, scenery, a change of hitting coaches, whatever it might be. Do you think Milwaukee sees opportunity here in this central because I don't think anybody really believes in the Cubs at the end of the day, and with Flaherty out and the rest of this pitching being what it is in Saint Louis that pitching in Milwaukee is so good. They just need to get some more offense in the worst way, and Hero
wasn't getting it done. Do you think that that's part of the reason why they sent him down again for the second time this year.
Yeah, I mean, and they did the Adamis trade. They're looking for offense, you know.
I'm that's another patchwork trade. Like they need a Mancini, they need a Peralta, they need a no No, you know, they need somebody.
I totally agree with you. I was gonna say, is like, I'm less conspiratorial about like those type of deals, at least I used to be where it's like, oh, they're sending him down and just kind of hype up the value and stuff like that, because I always want to give a benefit of the doubt that like, these people that are making millions of dollars, they're not gonna be subdued by like fifty at bats in like a triple A during half of the season to be like, whoa,
this guy's really great, But you know what it kind of is. It kind of is like fantasy. It is legit. The more that I have talked to inner workings of people with baseball, the amount that teams will strategically push prospects out there and try to influence and try to create value and won't move prospects up specific levels because they want to keep them hitting so they can keep that value going. It actually makes a lot of sense,
I don't think here. Even though Craig Council came out and said that never before has there been a bigger gap between Triple A and the majors, which is a really interesting comment which I think I relate. I could see and I could agree with that they're encouraged by it. It does feel like his team needs to make a big trade, but I'm not so sure it can come from Keston here. Regardless, he could be a part of it. I think he's a prime candidate. Get him out of there,
get him in a new spot. But I don't know. Man, if they could get Devin Williams right, you want a great bullpen, but I imagine the package you could get for Devin Williams and Keston Hero. You can move them off. So I think they I agree with everything you said totally. I think they need new stuff and I think they are priming Keston Hero to just destroy at Triple A and have a team that is just willing to have more.
That's what he did already once. That's my concern. He he bret him up and it's like, yeah, it's not working, let's send you back down. I think they're just protecting the asset because they realize it's just not gonna happen, and they think they have a window. All right, you are the guy to talk to about this, So I want your opinion on this. The consensus line of betting pros for the National and Rookie of the Year Caulbrian Hayes a plus three fifty, Ian Anderson plus six hundred,
Dylan Carlson at plus seven hundred. The American League side, it still sit with Randy rose Arena at the top at plus three fifty, Wander Franco's at ten to one. Jared Kellenick, who just got sent down, still attend to So I guess here's my question, National League, American League, where do you want to put your chips here? Is it just as simple as Brian Hayes is back now, it's his award to lose Anderson's pitch very well. We
haven't seen Wander Franco yet. Is this the time to bet it before comes up and this ten to one becomes a two to one at some point. But he is on the same team as a Rose Arraya, so it's complicated. Take me through your thoughts here, National League American League Work of the Year. Where's Welch putting the chips?
So from an NL perspective, I think you kind of hit it. I think it's a two dog race right now. I think I actually think Ian Anderson might be your guy. He's got a three and a half era. He started eleven games, he's been really good. If he had a couple more wins under his table, like six, I don't even think it'd be remotely close. But if he can get to like twelve or thirteen wins and he's gonna put it decently behind him, keep that three and a
half the ray. I gotta be honest with you. I'm just not sure what key Brian Hayes can do at that point. Like, I mean, he could obviously go off, and he has shown some that I would say right now, Ian Anderson is the front runner, but kee Brian Hayes is on his tail, and keep Brian Hayes has been just such a pleasant surprise that you know, the power numbers have gone up and he's going to have really big totals.
There's nobody else national League wise, it's going to come up and compete this year.
Right uh oh, that's going to like actually be called up.
For this award in your opinion, right, I mean these are these are the guys, right. Not a horse race here.
Here's the tough part.
Walks is starting to play better. I don't know if that's a dark horse where you start.
I don't think he qualifies though.
Has he has? He already passed the qualification.
Yeah, he he had. Like there's a couple of guys, well they're not in all now that I'm thinking about it, but there's a couple of guys that are like Fringy in that range. But like to your point of guys that could come up and be impactful right now. Probably not Like what I was gonna say is you always have those players like look at like air Cities, a Kino and stuff. You come up, you play like fifty
games and you hit like twenty homers. Those guys can happen and there's a there's a possibility like Helly Oramos or Eli Oramos with the Giants. He could get called up like any time, and he's the type of player that could hit twenty plus. And I think it could change the discussion, except that Hayes and Anderson have been there the entire time, so I just.
Don't think and Anderson has the you know, two months on. Hayes hasn't been there for two months.
Yeah, yeah, I like JJ, like JJ Blede could come up in the discussion. If he comes up relatively soon it starts hitting, he could be that. I think I think the bet right now is one of those two. I would put it on Ian Anderson like a little subtext guy. If the team were a little bit better, would be Pevid Smith, to be honest with you, a dinoback to ninety two five homers. He's got thirty four runs.
He legit could close in. If the Diamondbacks can score runs on like one hundred runs on the year, maybe eighty RBIs twenty homers with a two ninety average, he would be in discussion. Like, I think he's a top five Rookie of the Year candidate in the NL. But that's you know, that's like low dollar stuff.
If you did that the al though America so al is kind of like the Wild West. Is it a matter of a Roserina and everybody else? Or is wander Franco, Like I said, is this the window? Because it feels like it might be because I don't know, I'm a big fan. I just feel like this guy's gonna light everything on fire. I think the league gonna have a hard time adjusting to him. Actually that's my opinion on Wander Franco. But I'm worried that none of that ten
to one gets cut in half very soon. If he does get that call.
I mean, I can throw a couple of things out for you. There are two absolute wild cards in this. I'm assuming because based on how I have it, they're eligible. But here's what you're forgetting. You're forgetting you'remin Mercedes, and you're forgetting a Doulas Garcia, even though they're twenty eight years old, but they qualifying right right now.
Adulus Garcia Garcia Barsides was a look. Mercedes came crashing back down earth. He had a great April. It was a fun ride. But Garcia's home run totals I think are definitely something to keep an eye on. If you had a vote, would you vote for Garcia, or would you vote for a Rosorina.
So far, I would vote for Garcia. It's unreal. He has sixteen homers, hitting two seventy six and forty three RBIs. Those forty three RBIs, I gotta look here because I want to say.
Also got a ton of strikeouts in there too, which I can, but they're not the day they look at the totals. That's what you're looking for.
He's inside the top ten in RBIs. He's only behind Shoheo Tani. I mean, maybe one of these surprising is Hasyus Agular, who's fourth in baseball.
You know what, because Hazy's Agular is driven on hundred runs, you know, with the Milwaukee Brewers. He was an RBI machine in the minor leagues in Cleveland. That guy knew how to drive in runs. And that was the one thing I always liked about Agular, even though he didn't have the same kind of power you would look for from us a first baseman, prototypically, he always had a knack for driving in runs and he hit well with runners and scoring position, which is like a lost art
form in baseball nowadays. But you bring up a great point in Garcia, So is he actually the dark horse that people should actually be starting to put some money on where everybody saw about the other guys.
I mean, I would be fascinated to see what does the number look like right now for Al because I.
Don't have to pull that up. I don't even have that number for him, because you pick up a point because he is twenty eight.
I think people you forget that he technically qualifies. He did not exceed prospect eligibility. Age does not qualify prospect eligibility in baseball, as much as people want to do it. Like a lot of people will be like, well, I'm just not going to rank you know, a twenty eight year old, which I totally understand, but baseball doesn't care. And Randy Rosewine is twenty six, but Yurman is twenty eight adults, Garcia is twenty eight.
And Erman Mercedes right now actually is funny because it's just actually moved recently. Your Mercedes at plus eight hundred, Kellenik is at plus ten, wonder Franco's ten, Andrew Vaughan's ten. I'm looking for Mercedes on consensus right now?
You mean Garcia?
I mean Garcia rather and I don't have him, So does he indeed or were sure he actually qualifies? There? Correct, and you see Brujon in there, I see a lot of other guys, And I.
Know eight he came into the year with prospect eligibility as far as I know, because he had a short stint in He had a short stint in two thousand and eighteen where he had seventeen plate appearances. Then he had only a handful more this past year and he's eclips He's only only has two hundred and eleven total plate appearances in his career and for this season he has one hundred and ninety nine at bats. So yeah, he technically qualifies. But maybe they took him off due
to age. I can't tell you who it is.
Well, they can't take you off because of age, but I don't know because of the you know, because of all the way the COVID seasons and other things and how they they tabulate.
Usually usually that's tied to games on roster. But I'm telling you, we walked into this season. The qualification for rookies as you walk into this season, and again somebody that could go and correct and be like here's the reason why, Okay, that's fine. If that's not the case, let's just assume, like right now, I would go Adules because his numbers are crazy. He's hitting underlining stuff you on Baseball Savant, they keep going. He's just not going
to stop, and he's hitting for good average. Randy is definitely in the disc I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility. If Wander were to come up soon, that he could pass Randy Rosin and Rands only hit
in about two fifty counting stats look pretty good. But what would be in consideration is if Wander were to come up, let's say within the next couple of weeks, he legit could finish out the year hitting three hundred plus and he could have you know, a ton of runs, and he could maybe not a ton of RBIs ten twelve stolen bases IV. I think if he were to do that and come up, it would have to be within the next couple of weeks. I would be willing to slap a little bit of it on Wander. But
Trek Scooble would be another dark horse in here. But Randy currently owns it. But you know, don't forget about uh, don't forget about Adulus and pay attention to wander and Trek Scooble.
There you have it all right. You can follow him on Twitter at is it the Welsh and of course go check out the it l Army over on Patreon. In this league with Scott Bogman and the Welsh. And you can also subscribe to Prospect one if you're somebody who plays in Diazi leagues or you just like great baseball talk. In this league, by the way, does everything all the sports Welsh. I miss talking to you on a daily basis. This was nice to get together talk
a little baseball. Hopefully we'll do it again soon and I appreciate the time today, my friend.
Thank you for having me. I always loved doing it. I always missed doing podcasts with you. Hopefully everybody had a good time. And remember have some fun, have a.
Little bit of fun. It's supposed to be fun. Let's make it fun. That's it. Go have fun, all right. That'll do it for us, but the story of the game goes on for the Welsh. I'm Joey p. We'll see you next time. Kids,