It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros. He what's up, everybody? It's me he Joe Bisavia, and welcome to Fantasy Pros, where fantasy sports lives and where wagering lives too, because today we've got a betting pro show for you for MLB. That's right, it's not just NFL anymore. No, no big changes here at Fantasy Pros. It's gonna be me, it's gonna be Dan Harris, and it's gonna be you. And we're gonna go through win totals in Major League Baseball for the National League teams. Today.
We're gonna talk about what those win totals are, if we like the overs, the unders, which ones we want to stay away from, and where there might be some value. And there's always value in the Fantasy Pros tools and there's no bigger tool. Excuse me, there's no better person to discuss the tools. I'm sorry, Dan, that came out weird, Dan Harris, how are you? My friend? Tell us all about what the exciting things that are happening ever a fantasy especially on the betting side at Betting Pros.
What a slip of the tongue show. Oops, Hi everybody. Okay, So, as you know, if you have subscribed to this show, we have been basically exclusively a betting pro show based on the NFL. That's all we've done. We've done it during the NFL season. We're going to continue to do that. Of course, during the NFL season, we'll do two shows a week, go back to the old school way of doing it, bringing on people from around the industry. But
now we're expanding. We've got Joe pi Zapia here if you are if you listen to our fantasy shows, you are familiar with him. Now. He's been our host for a couple of weeks. He's also going to be the host of the Betting Pro Show. It's going to be a weekly show from here on out. We are going to be touching for the next few weeks on MLB
because that's where we are. When we get to the NFL, we will be talking about the NFL, but we're gonna have guests on from around the industry doing a weekly show talking about whatever the big event is going on that week or you know. Obviously the different sports with NBA, NHL, we're already into the season, so we can't do the preseason episodes, of course, but going forward, this is a weekly show that we will be doing beyond the NFL.
It was the Betting Pros NFL podcast. It is now the Betting Pros Podcast, So make sure you subscribe, you tune in every week. We're going to be here for you. For now, for the next couple of weeks, it's going to be baseball, which Joey p and I love. We love to talk some baseball, so I'm ready for the NL win totals. Baby, let's do it.
And to be fair, I am the second biggest tool behind Dan. Okay, these are the tools that you need right here. So all joking aside, this is something we're very passionate about. We love it. I talk a ton of this stuff over on Sports Careered on Television two for the last few years, and I'm very excited to be talking it here on Fantasy Pros. And let's start with the National League East, and let's start with the
win total of the Atlanta Braves. Now, it's funny because Baseball Perspectus has them somewhere on eighty two wins, which I thought was very, very strange. But the win total around the aggregate value and once again trying to take all these different sites like we do here on Fantasy Pros, on the betting side on Betting Pros and give you
kind of what the general landscape is. Yeah, it's going to be a half different here and there, but for the most part, you're looking at ninety one and a half, so you're looking at the Atlanta Braves and in terms of rotation, they did make a big addition there with Charlie Morton, and I think that's a bigger impact than other people do. He's a veteran stability, a guy who
you can count on for innings. That's huge right now coming off of a season where you really don't know, especially with the injuries they've had to Soroka and some of those young pitchers. Ian Anderson was a revelation last year, but there's questions about how much he can handle in terms of workload this year. It's a great lineup Dan,
but it's a little top heavy. I think I'd be surprised if you got the same kind of production you got out of Darnault and out of some of the other players in the bottom part, whether it's the Swanson's or Darnaul's or maybe even Marcella Zuna to a certain extent, because we saw the best of Azooa last year, but we've seen him be a streaky player in the past. So ninety one and a half is that number? How do you feel about this number when it comes to the braves.
It's a big number, it really is. And again we you know, Joe, you look at the projection systems that are around you mentioned it and Pacoda like they ow they've faded the braves right like the last everybody has recently and they just constantly go over. But ninety one is a big number, ninety one and a half, and I think that's something that kind of we throw around, like ninety ninety one. It's tough. It is very tough in
Major League Baseball to get to even ninety wins. By the way, for the for the wins, as Joe mentioned, we're going to be using the consensus wins. So at Betting Pros, what we do is we aggregate all the available sports book Now I'm in New Hampshire, so the only numbers that I can get are at Draft Kings. But if you look at Bettingpros dot Com, and I think it's Joe's at bettingpros dot com slash MLB wins right.
Is that the link for the link. If you want to see the win totals for everything, you can see it where it is in every book Now. Ninety one and a half is everywhere, like there's no differentiation at it at all. So the consensus line is ninety one and a half. That's what I have at a DraftKings too. If I'm going one where, I don't love this bet either way. If I lean one way, it would be towards the over for a couple of reasons. I do like the lineup. I mean Acunya obviously leading off is fantastic.
I don't know exactly how it's gonna bear out Freeman off the MVP. I think Ozuna maybe not quite as good as he was last year. Darn I was getting up there, but he is kind of legitimate. I love Ozzie Alby's Dansby Swanson is kind of real now, like I've been looking into him for on the fantasy side, He's he's legit. I like what I've seen from him. I like Austin Riley, and I like the rotation. Joe. I really do like Charlie Morton, like he's one of
one of my guys. Ian Anderson was a guy who at the beginning of the Fantasy season, I was like, I'm not in on this guy.
Now I'm totally in I too, because you and I, You and I both got to come to the Ian Anderson world right now in the last few weeks, and I've had that same kind of revelation. Hyeah, it's like, you know what where he's going. It just makes a lot of sense. But yeah, I personally feel like it's kind of a It's again. These numbers are always right on. That's the whole point. I would either stay away from this one because it feels just about right. I don't
know if they're gonna bbliterate this number. And I'm a little concerned because it is high. It's a very competitive division. As we're gonna get you, this is the most competitive division in the National League. Yes, that's what scares me about going too high old for this number. If anything, I would probably stay away. But if I had a lean, the lean would certainly be on the over by a hair because I do think Atlanta is that team where they're used to success. They're used to being on top.
They are built I think for the long haul, but I also just I do have some questions about some of the guys. I love Max Reid, I love Morton, I love Anderson. The rest of that rotation was still figuring out the ball.
I like Smiley. I think if again I mentioned Smiley before, I think if Smiley can stay healthy, which is always a big if. And again, Soroka is probably gonna miss what April coming back from the Achilles' hair. But the rotation is pretty good. The bullpend though, Joe not terrible. I mean, Will Smith's very solid, Martin is good. Mintor
bounced back. It just it is the tough division. That's the thing about it is when you're looking at the wind totals for any division, That's why the central is such a fascinating place to look at, because the wind totals are all low because they're gonna, you know, somebody who's got to go over basically in that one. So I think for this, I agree with you. Ninety one
and a half is a sharp number. I don't love either way, but I kind of would lean over, And it might be because I'm fading some of the other teams in the division.
That might be the Marlins are at seventy and a half, which I gotta tell you, it seemed very low to me right off the bat. This is where I think the first spot where I'm actually a little bit excited about a number, because I think that pitching is much better than people realize. I just did a little write
up on Fantasy Pros about Elie's or Hernandez. I just got to interview Craig Mish this week, who covers the Marlins, and I asked him, I said, so tell me who is the guy that's getting all the balls out of camp now with the Marlins, because you know it's always the buzz guy. And he said, without a doubt, it's Hernandez. And you add him in with Lopez and Sixto Sanchez. All of a sudden, this pitching is a lot better
than people realize. If you get some bounce back from Corey Dickerson, you get some guys like Jazz chishm to kind of take a step up, all of a sudden, the Marlins, you know, they were a playoff team last year. I know it was a short season. I just think seventy and a half is very low. I think they're closer to a five hundred team than they are to a seventy win team. So to me, this is actually a comfortable over I feel much more comfortable with this number than I do with the Braves number. So you
walk me through your thoughts about them, Carlins. Do you think this is too low? Or am I overrating this Marlins pitching staff a little?
I think a little both. Actually I don't. I don't think you're overrating the staff. I think the staff is really good. Sandy al Contra also very very good there, So I think it's a it's a solid staff. That is what I have the least question marked about. With the Marlins. The lineup is just kind of I don't know, it's not.
That's what they are. They don't have that guy. They don't have that dude. There's there's no you know, Juan Soto in that kind of.
I've got Starling Marte, who I like but is kind of an aging speedster at this point, right not not somebody's So the lineup isn't great. The bullpen, they don't have, like the strike up I mean, Y mean, Garcia maybe is the strike up guy, but Anthony bass is fine, Dylan Floro, It's fine, it's not great. With that said, I agree with you. I don't think this is a smash of the over, but I am leaning over on it for sure. And again, the consensus line is seventy
and a half, and it's to go under. You're getting plus money for the consentives line. It's plus one oh five over it's minus one thirty four. And part of that, I think is because of the fact that there are a lot of books out there that are at seventy one. So the consensus line is seventy and a half, but there's a lot of books out there if you look at seventy one and a half, so it's right on the border in between. If you can get seventy and a half. I agree with you, Joe. I think I
would go over here. I think they're again being a little undervalued, but I don't really It's hard for me to see them getting to five hundred unless that staff stays fully healthy all year and just rocks the house, because that is the strength of the team.
All right. Moving on to the Philadelphia Phillies. Eighty and a half is this number. I'm gonna save our mets for last, because I know we have so many feelings. I know originally we're going to do that, but let's do the Phillies next. Eighty and a half is the number here, and this feels dead on to me. I think this is an absolute five hundred team. I understand they made some acquisitions in the offseason to improve the bullpen. It's improved. I still don't think it's great as era
of the bullpen was over eight last year. That is stunning. I mean stunning, like you just can't even wrap your mind around it. And I get it, it's only sixty game season. It's still atrocious even regardless, So the Phillies are a bit of an enigma for me. I think they are a five hundred team. They have top of the you know tier guys, the Bryce Harpers of the world, and they have those top two pitchers in the front and then after that, it's a lot of questions that
back ends a bullpens question. Still, I still think it's going to cost some games this year. It's enough for me to run away from this number. I don't love this Phillies number. I think they're an eighty one win team and that's basically where they're sitting.
I like the under a little bit more because I'm fading them this year. I really am. And by the way, you can get eighty one and a half at Fandle. That's the one book that I'm seeing out there on Fandle.
At the eighty one and a half. That's a more comfortable under, I think for me.
A little more comfortable. It's funny you're like, well, one win, one win is.
One enormous Well, one win is a big differ. It really is.
It really is. But even at eighty and a half, which the consensus lign is, which is where I could get it at DraftKings and where it's basically sitting, I still lean the under the bullpen. I mean they tried, right, They added some some heat back there with Archie Bradley and Jose Alvarada, and they signed Kinsler, you know, to a minor league deal, but I'm sure it'll be in the Major so it's better. But you know, I'm not
totally loving it. It is the staff, I mean, Nola's great, Zach Wheeler is great, Ethlyn's Okay, Velasquez and more that's not gonna cut it. And the lineup, I mean real Mutto already fractured his thumb. I doubt he'll be ready exactly on opening day, and that.
Hurts the pitching staff too. It does as we need we need to realize. I mean, not that he's not familiar with those guys, but yeah, you just want to be in a rhythm with everybody going into the season, and when you're working from behind, that could mean some struggles in April, and that's enough to bring them down a little bit.
And the lineup is just like whatever, Like real, Muto's great, Harper is fantastic, but you know, McCutcheon is like a thousand years old, and I love them, but you know, and you know, Hoskins one of my favorite players. Again, but none of these guys, Gregorious boem Segura, like it's just whatever. In this division where they're gonna have to play the Braves, they're gonna have to play the Mets. The Marlins aren't going to be as terrible, the Nationals
aren't going to be terrible. This just strikes me as kind of the under that I lean towards the most here with the Phillies at eighty and a half, especially at eighty one and.
A half, all right. Let's move on to the Washington Nationals, which is a place where you can I think, make some money here if you have real feelings about this pitching staff being right. Because if this pitching staff is right, I know they're eighty four and a half is basically the number somewhere around there is which you're getting most places. There's one spot where you're getting eighty three and a half, which I would be looking for that one and to
take the over. And that's a Fox bet. And I gotta tell you, like, I think that you can make some money on the Nationals this year. You do have won Soda, you still have Victor Robless, you still have Trey Turner. There's a lot of good young players obviously on that team. Plus you brought in Josh Bell, you brought in schwar where both guys look really good playing for contracts right now in the spring. They've looked very
good so far in the very early going. You just want to see them show up to camp in good shape, ready, focus. That's what you're looking for. And for me, Dan, I think this is one where if the pitching is right, They've got Brad Hand now closing out games. That is a good solid investment. Especially if you do think a little less of the Phillies, then maybe you should think a little bit more than Ats.
This is a really tough one for me because I could see them smashing the over on this. If everything breaks right, you have basically all three, the Big three. They all have to bounce back right. Sureser has kind of been battling injury a little bit and saw some sort of real downturn in his numbers last year. Corbin lost two miles per hour on his velocity. Strasbourg barely pitched and had the surgery for carpal tunnel syndrome. I'm getting more optimistic on each one of them as I
dig into them even more. The back end of their rotation is kind of gross. I mean, John Lester, John Lester's tear.
Nobody's trying to tell me about John Lester. I do not want to hear that. No, no, no, But.
I do agree that hand is a huge addition to that bullpen. And you've got Rainy, You've got Harris, you've got Hudson, and the lineup is Yeah, that's the thing. If Schwarber kind of bounces back, and you know, we're in best shape of you know, his life season right now. He does look good.
It does look very good.
Bell. I'm willing to kind of buy the whole My season got my swing got really long last year and I kind of lost, and I let my father side to sort of get me some bad habits. I like him as a hitter, and when you add that with Soto and Turner, I think it has the potential to go over. But I'm not comfortable with I'm like, right there, I'm like at eighty four like that. That's basically what I think is the right number. So this is kind
of a stay away for me right now. But I see the potential for it to go way over if in the spring everybody looks kind of as we think.
They could look. I think that's the thing. If you're going into that you're healthy with those three pictures and Corvin especially looks good, I think you might want to dabble in this one. Otherwise you could see the opposite, because we've seen this team unravel too when those pictures have injuries and they don't have enough in the system and the pitching to make up for that. Now it's time for our New York Mets. Dan ninety one wins. Oh model, As my grandmother would say, that is a
lot of wins for the New York Mets. Now here's the thing. Stroman's back, you got Carrasco, You've got grom At some point, you hope to get Cinderguard. I'm not as concerned as everybody else about Lugo and the elbow. I mean, that's a clean up surgery that should be fine. Go back and look at Cole Hamil's eery had his clean up. He came back at what his best seasons. So I'm looking at this Mets team. The addition of Lindora Carrasco, Trevor May, They've done some really good things.
But most importantly it's the depth. It's the depth of adding versatility and athleticism, which is something the Mets have lacked both of for quite some time. Whether it be a Jonathan vr At, Kevin Palar, anybody else that rhymes with Allar, it could be Malex Smith. All these guys athletic, versatile, and I think give them a different dynamic off the
bench that we're used to seeing. This is a faster team, this is a deeper team, and I think the lineup is very good this year, especially with Nimo, Dominic Smith surrounding Confordo and Alonso. I know I'm painting a Rosie picture, which is something that I never do as a Mets fan. Usually it's the opposite, right, But I actually think this is a team that's going to win ninety something games. The question is, Dandy, you feel good about the ninety one.
I mean, it's hard as a Mets fan.
I'm trying my best to be to look at this realistically, and they are the deepest team in this division. Yes, they are the deepest, period and I think that wins out more often than not in the one sixty two.
Nowadays Pakoda has them and ninety four wins. I mean ninety four. And when I first looked at this and I was talking about it with my boss, who was like, I'm smashing the under. He likes to tease me about all my teams anyway. But I now lean towards the over. Once I sort of dug into it, and again it's all over the place. It's ninety and a half, it's ninety one, it's ninety one and a half at the various books. So for me, it's ninety and a half.
That makes a little more even enticing. I think the big thing, Joe is you nailed it, which for the first time really with the new ownership, they have depth. They have so much depth. It's like it used to be like, all right, if everything goes perfectly, we're fine, but if we get one injury to the staff, then we're calling up Rando like relievers to start games. You know, you've got lou Casey and you've got Yamamoto and you can survive. And you've got the defensive addition too.
They've got that eight starting pitcher thing exactly. They've got a bench where if there's an injury, they've got versatil where McNeil can float, Davis can float, VR plays three different positions. Yeah, that's unique. You don't see a Mets team that has that, and I think it's going to be very refreshing. They're also going to be able to create runs for the first time in a long time. Yes, they've been very stationed station for many years. Lindor changes
that wholeheartedly. I mean that that is a big, big shift for the Mets from a philosophical standpoint of how they're built.
I love the defensive, Like you mentioned, polar Almora, the guys who you.
Know I even mentioned because he didn't rhyme with Polar or Volar.
But you've got especially with Don Smith, you know right now, schedule to play left and you know you can get the defense late in games. That makes a huge difference. And the other thing really is, Joe Baseball teams are poor right now because of their revenue. You know who's not poor, Steve step Going, Steve Going. It's what I think is really what kind of pushed me over the edge is when you get to mid season and teams are like looking to sell and they're looking for salary dumps.
I mean, look at Lindor. It's not like we gave up a huge prospect hall for Lindor and Carrasco. We were just willing to absorb the huge salaries because now we have an ownership group that can do that. And I think that's going to come into play mid season when we're able to regroup. As long as we're in contention, I think they're going to make some big addition, which is why now at this point I lean towards the over even at ninety and a half, ninety one, maybe
even ninety one and a half, So I'm over. It's terrible. But at that point I.
Think I'm over too. That's where my lean is also. Yep, I'm moving on to the central the Chicago Cubs. There's still some guys there, I mean, Rizzo, Biaz, you know, Wilson Good. Yeah, still got Chris Bryant. There's still Kyle Hendrix there. But let's be honest, I mean it is. This is the opposite, right, It's thin. I like he and half very much more than most people. But seventy eight and a half is the number here for the Cubs and Dan. I look at this as a lean
towards the under. I just feel as though, you know, as the season goes on, they're going to be separating themselves in the wrong direction from teams like the Brewers and teams like the Cardinals, and that means that there's gonna be opportunity to get rid of some more of these guys because they're not bringing back all these guys. In fact, I'd be surprised if they brought back any of these free agents. And the Cubs just completely wipe the slate clean. We'll see if they get away with that.
But what are your feelings on this seventy eight and a half when it comes to the Cubs, because it feels like an under to me, I feel like you're getting a premium number because it's a big market team at the seventy eight and a half, and I think that is perfectly something you want to take advantage of.
Is diddo an okay analysis?
It is perfect. We could say ditto and move on to the next team. For all that, well, I do.
The biggest thing I want to point out are two points number one. I mean, there was talk about them dealing Bryant and everything like that, Like this is a team that has every intention of dealing away pieces if they fall out of contention, which by the way, is a big deal when you're thinking about win totals, because if that does happen, then like even if they're on a trajectory to go past that wind total mid season, if they start dealing off pieces, then you're going to
be able to obviously change the trajectory. But the bigger thing for me, Joe is really the pitching staff. I love Kyle Hendrix. I'm like the biggest fan of Kyle Hendricks in the world. Who is their number two starter is it is it, Jake Arietta, is it Alec? It's sad.
That's the problem. It's just it's it's not enough, and there's no pipeline to speak of right now.
That pipe line is gone dry.
You know, the guys that you thought were going to take you into that next stage, whether it be al Mora, Ian happ took a little longer to develop, Schwarbur somewhere else. So it's a it's it's not good for the Cubs. The Reds are a weird one too, because they're at eighty two and a half. Yeah, I thought was a little high. Also, now, I don't you know, I saw Green pitch yesterday. He was, you know, hitting a hundred on the on the radar gun. That's cool, that's great.
I don't know how much he's going to contribute. He still got Someday great and still got Castillo, but they basically just dismantled the bullpen. And I know Amir Garrett's there, and I know Sims is still there. Hopefully he can get healthy and be ready at some point earlier in the season then we anticipate. But still this is a very weird I think the Reds are a very streaky team on paper because you have great talent like Mustakas,
you have Suarez, you have Castianos. But some of these players do have hot and cold streaks, and I think that does equate to about a five hundred team. But Dan, I mean as much as I like Tarl Mally in this rotation too, it just feels like that bullpen's gonna cost them games. They feel like the Phillies of the Central. To me, it's like they're top heavy, they're streaky, and when it matters most, closing out the game, I'm concerned whether or not they'll be able to get that bridge to the win.
I think you're right, I the Phillies of the Central is a great way to talk about It's not a terrible team. It's like it's kind of close.
To another team that made the playoffs last year.
That correct, But I do lean the under here and again I like that the front of their rotation with Gray, Castillo and Mallley, but you know, Wade Miley and Michael Lorenzen or whoever's gonna be there four or five just don't do it for me. The bullpen is questionable. Lineup's fine. I mean, you know, Castianos, who you know, I like Suarez, good Mustacas Winker, but this strikes me as a team they were looking at possibly deal Castillo before the season started.
I don't think this is a team that really thinks it's in contention. This team that I think is going to deal in the middle of the season when they fall out of contention, and I think they'll fall under five hundred, which means I do like the eighty two and a half under on that one, because I just it's gonna shock me if this team sort of is in contention to win the division.
Now, it's not gonna shock me if the Brewers are there, because I've learned my lesson. I understand Yealwisch was hurt last year. I get it. But as long as he looks good this spring, this eighty two and a half in the Brewers isn't over for me. And it's not even a lean, it's an actual wager. I just feel like, you know, with Woodroof with Burns, I think they will
have somebody else in that rotation step up. It's hard to pick out who, but I think one of those guys that I think limb Limblam to me was a guy I circled too, So I'm glad you kind of reiterated that. But as long as Yelwich's is good, the rest of this team will be fine because that's all they've needed. Basically, they've been able to get there. They have a stunning bullpen with Hater at the back end there and Williams. It's just it's a it's a really
much better team than people give them credit for. They add a Colton Wong, a couple of other pieces here and there. To me, this eighty two and a half, they are better than a five hundred team. I don't get this, Like I look at the rest of the division and I feel like the Brewers are gonna be fighting for the top with the Cardinals and eighty two and a half. I just think that's a little, a little discounting the Brewers in my mind, and it's time we stop doing that.
It's weird how in sync we are with this, but hopefully that means it's right. But I this is also a bet that I.
Have two smart, handsome people are in agreement. How could anyone not listen to them?
Well, that's fair. If we ever find too smart handsome people, they'll I have bet this as well at over eighty two and a half, and I feel really confident about it. You're right, the starting staff in the back end is a little questionable, but you know they'll I think they'll get it done enough, mainly because I think they have the bullpen to do it. And you're right. Look, Lorenzo Caine, that we've talked a lot about on the fantasy side, is back. I think he adds a lot to that.
They added Colton Wong, so defensively they get a lot better. I think Caston Hira is gonna bounce back. They just signed this morning right before we recorded Jackie Bradley Junior to add to again the defensive sort of prowess that they're out there. I think they're gonna. I think they're actually gonna take the division. So I don't mind a future on the division winner either. But yeah, I love
the eighty two and a half. It's a bet that I have made and I think it's gonna rise as we get into it, So I'm with you all right.
Next on the list here we have the Saint Louis Cardinals. You know, we'll finish up with Pittsburgh last. But because let's talk about the ones that are actually competing here, because the Cardinals at eighty six and a half, this seems like a pretty good number for me. Once again, the Cardinals rotation I have a lot of questions about. I still like Flierty, big fan. I love the aeronautl move. It helps the pitching staff, of course. I just have questions about the rest of the rotation. I just do.
And it's enough questions where I would lean towards the under here. I think this is more like an eighty four win team than an eighty six and a half win team, And if you're getting that a six with the half, I would really prefer the under there, because they could have a good season to win eighty four to eighty five games. They could be in that wild card discussion around there. Yeah, but I just don't know if this is a team that's going to approach ninety games.
And I know Saint Louis is a great place, and I know Aeronaut is a huge addition to this team along with gold Shmith, and they have some good players, But I don't know, man, it's just the pitching for me where I just I think they're going to just benefit from this bottom feed or division when you have teams like Pittsburgh and I think Chicago's gonna be bad and Cincinna's gonna be streaky, so it's gonna inflate them a little bit. But I don't know if they can inflate them over this number.
I agree, you know, it's weird. This is another one like the bray is where the projection systems that don't ever love the Cardinals and they seem to beat him. But again Pacoda's at eighty one here, so that that's a pretty big difference. And again it bounces around the consensus eighty six and a half. I'm looking at now Fox bets at the eighty five and a half fandle at eighty six, So it really is a little bit different. But it is the pitching. The lineup is solid, their
defense is solid. Their bullpen has interesting arms in it, especially if Hicks can can bounce back and everything like that. But it's the staff. I mean, after Flaherty, I know everybody's like, wow, Adam Wayne Wright still getting it done.
Yeah, But the peripherally, the behind the scenes numbers on waynewright, it's like smoking mirrors. The same thing you saw at Lester for the first monment the season last year, and if you paid attention to that, it was gonna implode. And it certainly imploded in September.
And Carlos Martinez just can never stay healthy and Michaels is just not ever there and you know, Kim fine, but you know, I just don't think the rotation there is good enough. It's really about if they can feast enough on teams like the Cubs and the Pirates to make it work. And it doesn't strike me. It does strike This team is more like a five hundred team to me. So I'm with you.
I lean the under, and it's very rare you get a team that's going to be under sixty wins for a total. The Pirates win total aggregate wise is a fifty eight and a half. And normally what you do is you look here and you say, okay, where can I find the bright spots? Where can I find where they can go over this because it's so low, the bar is so low that it's actually something you can at times make money on. We did this a couple of years ago with I think one of the Orioles teams. No,
it was last year. It was obviously not last year. It was a year or two ago, and you just look at a low winter and you go, there's opportunity. They're going to be better than this. They're not this bad. You can find that sometimes. I don't know if I can figure this out for Pittsburgh, I really don't. I mean, it is barren right now, and the guys that they have coming up are not going to be seen this year at all. So I just think that is a bad situation. It's not bad enough that I want to
go under because it's too low. It's a bad risk. So this is a stay away from me.
At the fifty eighth, I probably will sprinkle on the over just because it's so ridiculously low.
Basically hard to get there though, with what I mean, in the middle of the order, the.
Worst major league team in the world right could just sort of fall into whatever. You know, however, fifty wins or whatever you want to do. I agree, there's not I like, like you. I tried to make a case for it, and I was like, oh, I mean like and most of the time you can. Yeah. I was like, do I like Brian Hayes. I think Mitch Keller's got some bounce back. I mean, if if the velocity, you know, if they keep you know, Rodriguez in the bullpen and
Kyle Krik bounces back, maybe maybe the bullpen. But yeah, you gotta really stretch to make a thing. The biggest thing I think and the reason why I think they could potentially get over and why if I might sprinkle a little bit on the over, is because I do expect the rest of the division to essentially, you know, sell off mid season, in that the Cubs and the Reds I think are probably going to sell off and become teams that the Pirates will be able to beat
as sort of their youngsters get a little there. But I agree, usually fifty eight and a half, you're like, come on, man, I mean, I mean, come on, We're not going to lose one hundred whatever. But it is hard to make a case. I think if I lean one way just based on the pure value of the number, i'd lean over.
All right, Arizona Diamondbacks. It's seventy four and a half. I'm just going to be straight up honest with you. I don't have a good gauge of this Dinonbacks team. This is a team that to me has a lot of variables. They could play way better than people realize, and they have the times. You know, they jettisoned all their best players and they had one of their better seasons in the last ten years. A few years ago. I run away from the Diamondbacks. I don't have a
beat on them. I'm just not there the I love Zach Gallon. This is nothing personal against him. I just don't There's too many variables, and to me, that's not a good investment no matter what the number is. So even though seventy four and a half it's tempting to go over, I could see where it bottoms out into the seventy four and a half. So it's a stay away from.
Me, Dan, I actually like the under I'm fading this team like from start, I love Gallon, you and I both all over him. After that, the rotation is horrible. I mean, Bumgarner, Caleb Smith, Luke Weaver, America. It's just not going to get it done in a division where you've got to play the Padres and the Dodgers all
the time, which, by the way, is another thing. You have to realize that the Rockies are going to be terrible, but they're going to have to play to really like elite elite teams constantly, and I think it's gonna hammer it. The bullpen is whatever, it's not that good. Sorrya, you know whatever, Clipper, it's just not that good. And the lineup,
you know, you know, tel Marte, Peralta, Walker, Escobar. No, it's just it doesn't have the goods in a place where you're gonna have to place the Dodgers and the Padres all the time. So I'm going under with this one. I just do. I do not like this team from a wins total perspective.
So how bad are the Rockies at sixty four and a half? Is this a number that you think is too low?
No, I actually don't think that's too low. I think it's too high. I realize that that's ridiculous because it's sixty four and a half. But this team is terrible, Joe, Like, the rotation is terrible. You know, Marquez is fine if he's out of Colorado Freeland every once in a while can put up some good stuff. But sen to tell out, I'm tired of waiting for John Gray. The bullpen is bad. Like, kudos to Bard for the comeback, but it's really hard for me to see it again.
You'll see Blackman move too. I get a good feed.
They want to move. That's the thing. They've moved Aroonato. Maybe they'll sign Story, maybe they won't. Maybe they'll move Story if they fall out of contention, maybe Blackman gets moved. It's the lineup is barren Man. This team has no interesting competing this year. They are not an analytical and analytically driven team anymore. This strikes me as a team that's gonna be bad and then they're gonna deal and they're gonna get even worse. So I'm actually under on
both these guys, the bottom feeders of the division. I'm under under sixty four and a half.
All right, let's do another one before we get to the big boys here in this division, because there are two big boys. Let's do the San Francisco Giants seventy five and a half. Now, this is a team that's started to sprinkle in some of the youth and using some of these young players they have. Gossman had a great season last year for them. So seventy five and a half is the number here for the Giants. Your thoughts on.
That, it's about right? I don't have a great lean on it. They've kind of had a nice, sneaky good offseason, Like I like the addition of Lostella, I like Disclafani. Posy is back, and I expect them to be able to contribute. Mike Mikey Stremski's still there and good. And they got Gossman back, who I am kind of buying into. I like kind of the sneaky Aaron Sanchez. They have
some kind of interesting bullpen pieces. But I don't know, it's just not a team to get excited about, Like there's no way you don't look at this team and see a path for them to really be Like, man, this team's going to be like an eighty four win team. And once you get past the fact that you're like, I don't really know if you're a five hundred win team, then you're like a seventy five seventy six that's about right.
So this is stay away from me. I don't have strong feeling I can make a case for both sides, so strong unders on the bottom feeders. I think San fran is about right where it is a seventy five and a half, So stay away from me, all.
Right, Let's go with the big boys. Now let's start with the Padres. Ninety four and a half. It's a lot of wins, but they added a lot of pitching. This one feels about right to me. I mean, as bad as this division is, I think I would lean towards the over. But I gotta tell you, I think this is exactly where they are. I think they're a ninety four and ninety five win team. I don't think there's a lot of leeway here. I don't see them
going under ninety. I don't see things bottoming out. In fact, they had a lot of injuries last year and still played really good baseball despite that. So they have depth. They have better starting pitching. Two aces they added if Paddock is good too, and Lamette at some point can be healthy. My goodness, this is a lot. So for me, it's hard for me to get to the over because it's such a high number. I would look for the
lowest well not I can find. If I can find one at ninety two, I would try to do that and go over. But that's about it for me. So unfortunately, like I just don't think it's in a give here, and I don't think it's gonna go negative. So I want to beat on the Padres, and I am, but I'm not gonna be wagering on this. On this ninety four and a half.
There is a ninety three and a half out there at Fox, but that's the lone one I see out there, so you can get that.
That's fine, Like ninety two for me to let go, Okay, let's do this.
This is so chock and I hate doing it, but I really like the over on the Potter.
It's so chok.
It's chalk, though, right because the numbers inflated, probably because they're like, well, the public's gonna love this. But you look at the team, Joe, It's hard for me to find holes in it. I mean the lineup up and down right, Chrisham, brilliant, Tatist, Machado, Hosmer, fam Myers, coronin Worth. Maybe, but they've got like all the little things that you look at, I'll be like, Okay, well they've also got death. They signed has and Kim excuse me, and profar Right.
You look at their staff, they just basically they weren't like we're gonna rely on Dan Nelson Lamett to throw us full season. They're like, no, we're just going to trade for everybody. We've got Darvish and Snell. They added Muscrove, Paddock. You and I both kind of like as a bounce back. They've got depth, They've got a really solid bullpen. I don't know who's gonna close. I don't really think it matters if Pomerance can kind of, you know, repeat what
he did. And the biggest thing, Joe, They're obviously going for it. They've got no problems with it. Despite everything they've done, they've still got a pretty elite farm system. So if they have to make a deal in the middle of the year, they can do it. It's gonna be really fun division to watch. So for me, ninety four and a half actually over is probably my favorite bet in this division.
Well, the rating champs at a Trevor Bauer this offseason and their win total sits at one oh two and a half right now. I know this is gonna sound crazy to you maybe, but I think this is an over two. I think they are going to be that kind of stellar good like I think they're going now. I would try to find the number of the lowest hundreds I could find, and there are some places where it might be a little lower than the one oh
two and a half. Maybe you get a one to one and a half or something like that, But one oh two and a half to me is still an over I think this is around one oh five one oh six. I don't think they're gonna get to the one to ten. But we mentioned about this division. The Diamondbacks aren't good, the Rockies aren't good. The Giants are working progress although competitive at times. Yeah, I just beg the Dodger's still the class for me in one oh two and a half, although it's a big number, I
would lean towards the over here. How about you?
Yeah, I agree, Joe. I know it's chalk, but it's just to me.
But you know what, there's we always talk about this on a lot of my shows in the past. Is there's good chalk. Yeah, good chalk is great. That's called a good investment. Last time I check, it's like, hey, do you want to invest in the plumbing company? Because everybody, everybody needs a toilet, you know it fixed at some point. Yes,
that's a good investment. Like sometimes you just look at something and it just makes sense, and you know what, the Dodgers right now it's hard to find the downside, especially now adding another picture to a mix of already very good pitching.
You're making me feel better about my investment in our local plumbing company. By the way. Yeah, that's that's the thing. There are no there's not like, how does it go wrong for this team? Like what if Bauer and Kershaw get injured? Right, like the worst case scenario? Okay, man, Like you're sitting there with like very serviceable Tony Gonsolin, right, Like, it's just they're able to survive whatever comes their way. They've got depth, they've got money, they've got a really
deep bullpen. They don't just rest on their lores. Last year they were on one hundred and sixteen Whin pays man, Like, it's just it's really difficult to see this coming under even Pacoda, you know, who's kind of you know conservative there at one oh four. I agree. I know. It's like we're sitting here and we're like, I'm like over on the Padres, over on the Dodgers. I don't care like that.
That is a lot like like, yeah, the Arizona Diamondbacks and you were under on i think even Colorad the Rockies. Yeah, and if that all shakes out, then you are going to have the disparity, and it does look like there's going to be a disparity. My takeaways from this show Milwaukee Brewers over yeah under excuse me, over on the Marlins on over on the Washington Nationals. Those are three where I think there's a real opportunity. And I think
this is why it's a good exercise. What do you come away with as like your favorite pieces that you talked about? For you, what are your favorites in the over or under categories?
For sure the Brewers that if there's one bet that I'm walking away from in this one, it is the Brewers over eighty two and a half. I think that number might rise, so I would get on it now like now basically is what I would do. I like also the uh I know it's you know, wasn't was the one that you were necessarily looking at. But I really like the Padres over ninety four and a half. I just think, again, there are so many ways for this to go right, and it has to be for me,
a real disaster for it to go wrong. And I kind of like the Marlins over seventy and a half. I like you you know, it's something where you know I'm not. I don't think they're gonna compete for the division, but I do think given that the Phillies are gonna be a little weaker than I think people are giving them credit for. I like the Marlins to basically be more like a seventy three seventy four win team, and the whole is greater than the sum of the parts.
All right. I want to remind everybody to go to bettingpros dot com slash MLB wins again, that's bettingpros dot com slash MLB wins, and you could take a look at all the different win totals from all the different sites where you can make your wagers. When Dan and I return next time, we'll be talking about the American League team's gonna be a great fun. So that'll do it for us today, But the story of the game goes on. For Dan Harris, I'm Joe Pizabia. We'll see you next time. Kids name because