It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros. A what's up everybody. It's me Joey Pa Joe Pisapia and welcome to betting pros and we are here today to take you through the American League. That's right, win totals, baby, it is me, it is Dan Harris, and it is you and Dan. We just did a very successful National League pod. If people missed it, they can go back and listen to it, obviously on demand wherever they get
their podcasts. But it's time to focus on the American League today and the win totals there where the d H still lives and breathes where eventually we'll come back to the National League, I believe. But that's the big difference. And the differences too. We've got some teams, some juggernaut teams, especially in the New York Yankees, and a few other ones as well. But this seems a little bit more maybe open to an interpretation with some of these win totals.
I think there might be some more variance here as we're looking at the American League. So welcome to the show today, my friend. How are you.
I'm doing well, I'm doing well, yeah, these totals.
Some of them are tough. I have a couple of ones that I really really like.
I'm going to be interested to hear what you have to say about them, But a lot of them it's kind of like, I don't know, like this easily could be like ten games over, ten games under, and I really have no idea, which Twyileen. So I'm excited to talk about these today for sure, because you're right, there are a lot of places that.
We really need to dive into the number.
Yeah, and if you're looking to dive into these numbers, make sure you hit up Betting Pros because that's the site for you. It's our extension of Fantasy Pros and obviously it's for all your betting information. They do a fantastic job here of taking all the different sites, all the different win totals. You could see everything, look at where the values are on the board, and make your
good informed decisions. And that's what we're about here, a little entertainment, a little information, a lottle of this, a little of that, and we got you covered here on Betting Pros. So let's start. Let's start with the Yankees, the team that is either loved or hated, depending on
what side of the aisle you're on. But the win total for the Yankees big time expectations as always, And that's the thing with these big teams, whether it be in football, the Dallas Cowboys that have big followings, you know, certain teams, the Yankees, you're always gonna have a premium because of the kind of team they are, the big base fan base. So the aggregate here is ninety five and a half. That's about what you're getting at most
spots for the New York Yankees. Now what's interesting about this is you look at them on paper, you see the talent, it's the rotation. I think that's got more questions. You've got Garret Cole at the top, no questions about him, But after that, how many ing is his tie on gonna give you? Is Corey Kluber gonna bounce back and give you two hundred innings? Again, that's a distinct question mark Domingo Herman, will sever Reno come back? David Garcia,
is he ready to kind of make that leap? Dan, There's a lot of questions, and that ninety five and a half is a very big number. So with all that in there plus oh yeah, there's a bunch of guys that get hurt every year on the Yankees named Judge and Stanton. Throwing all that in there is this tempting you to look potentially at the under of this ninety five and a half.
It's kind of a stay away for me. I wouldn't go over.
I would say that I'm not going over with it for the exact reasons that you said. Corey Klueber is the number two starter like you, that's not a rotation that should be, you know, for a team that should be expected to have ninety five and a half wins.
It really is, with all the question marks in that rotation, just something where I can't go over it is the lineup, but you mentioned it, man, you want a lineup where guys are likely to miss time Between Judge and Stanton and Aaron Hicks and everything like that.
It's really tough.
And the bullpen is good, but already they're dealing with something we don't know the news. The news it just broke this morning, but Britain is having an MRI. They're a little worried about his UCL in his arm. That would be a big hit to the bullpen. So ninety five and a half is a big number. There's no way I would go over. But if they stay healthy, if you get a bounce back really from either Tyne or Kluber, they easily could.
D this number. So for me it's a stay.
I lean slightly the under, but I'm basically not betting it either way.
You know, I'm not a big fan of the you know, I really like this number. Feels really good, But I don't really like this number. It feels really good, it feels right about where it should be, and the reason is because of the variance of the pitchers. Even if they get good innings out of those guys, my concern is do they get enough of them and then the bullpen, which is the strength. If they start having an injury
or two, then we're really into the weeds. And I think when you're looking at the overall picture of the East Den, it feels a little bit, at least to me, like the Rays and Blue Jays are going to be far more competitive than I think people realize even last year, and that's something that's going to enter into it now. Going to those Rays who made it to the World Series. I went on record last year all over the place, and I said that this is a season that is
built for the race. It's sixty games. The Red Sox are not competing this year. The Yankees are not gonna be able to go out there and acquire big ticket items and they can absorb all these big salaries because they're the Yankees or they're the Red Sox. So the Rays are actually, for the first time competing on a very level playing field. And when you know it, they made it all the way to the World Series.
Yep.
But now we're back to one sixty two. So here's the question. No Snell, No Morton. I know they have that whole little league pitching thing, which you're a big fan of the little league pitching.
I know that.
I know you got lots of little league commitments going on. Eighty five and a half is the number four of the Rays, the reigning defending America League champs. So do you think this is achievable with these losses in the rotation and now the factor in that we're back to the one sixty two marathon.
I do, but I really just do because I just kind of with the Rays. I just kind of close my eyes and say, I believe in whatever you want me to believe, because when you look at this team, you're like, how is this team even a five hundred team? I mean you look at the rotation, you know, I mean when they lost Snell, you mentioned that lost Martin, You're like, Okay, Chris Archer, Rich Hill, Michael waka Colin McHugh, I mean at got glass. But yeah, that rotation is not something.
That scares you.
Sure they're going to be doing like you throw three innings, you throw three inngs, you throw three innings like that, which is fine, and their.
Mountation sounds like a sleeper list from twenty eighteen.
Correct.
That's that is my favorite most hilarious rotation ever, the way you just put them all together and maybe go what year is it?
That's what the rotation is. I didn't do anything, I legit, just read the rotation.
And the lineup also is just like you're like, okay, Meadows, I like you for a bounce back, Brandon Lao always you know, developed power, Maybe buy into Randy a Rosarina maybe, but then you're like, okay, who's your cleanup hitter? Ohg Manchoy, Like this is not a lineup that you're scared of.
I do like the bullpen. I love Nick Anderson.
I mean, I think what you saw from him during the season last year is closer to what you're gonna get.
I know he fell apart in.
The postseason, but I do expect them to be back to pretty much normal, which what he was.
You know. I like Castillo and Fairbanks is fine.
So you know the last three years ninety ninety six and then last year they were one hundred and eight win pace at eighty five and a half. This sounds terrible, but I lean the over, but only really because I'm like, they know what to do to get the most out of their players, and I think that they are going to be competitive.
It's a good division. It's tough, but I lean slightly over.
But it's all I have to close my eyes because when you look at the actual parts, you're like, oh god, this is disgusting.
So slightly over, but not not hammering it or anything like that.
No, I'm not hammering this one either. I would also lean the over. If I'm going to lean one way on this one, it's because I think the addition at some point in the time in this year of wander Franco to this offense is going to be a big boost.
And what do you always, by the way, with him, when do you expect him to come out?
Honestly, sooner than later. I don't know if it's going to break camp. But my goodness, he's got off to a great start.
Yeah.
And that's like he's kind of forcing their hand. And I know he could play third base, they say, and and maybe you know he plays second base and low move somewhere else. I know there's a lot of discussions right now, but I think last year you knew they weren't going to push Wander Franco. They just weren't going to do it.
Yep.
This year, this is a totally different set of circumstances. And what you can can't acquire big time guys like the Yankees can, like the Blue Jays probably can, like the Red Sox can. What you can do is add guys from within, which is what they did last year with the Rose Arena and which they can do this year with Franco. So those are the difference maker guys.
I think they will go over. They will find a way because they always do, and they have a nose for getting the best out of these guys unless right, Chill. I know he's one hundred and ten years old, but I think it was a good signing. Like I actually think that was a good pal for them, and it's hard to replace Moreton end Snell. I think that's a lot. But they're gonna get creative they always do ye and they're gonna manage their way. I mean, you're looking at
basically four and a half games above five hundred. Are the Rays a better than five hundred baseball team? In my opinion, I think they are, So that's why I would go, are they five games better? Probably not much more the Blue Jays however, at eighty six and a half, they're even higher in most spots than the Rays. And everybody's drinking the kool aid. And I love the Blue Jays. I'm very excited about them. However, this is another team that after he hunred Reyu, there's questions in the rotation.
So it's kind of like the theme right now with the American leagueast as we continue on here, there's a guy at the top. It's cool, it's glass. Now it's uh, it's injured for you. And then after that, I don't know, we'll see what are the guys and the rest of these rotations. So is the Springer addition enough for this team to stay relevant over this time period and be in eighty six and a half above or do you think maybe the hype is a little bit. I don't know too much too soon for these Blue Jays.
I think it's enough to go over their rotation. You're right. I mean there is a lot of horrible rotations, which isn't.
Good when you're in a division with a lot of really good lineups.
But the rotation is gross. I mean Robbie, Ray, Tanner, Roark.
Hopefully Nate Pearson can stay healthy, but even if he does, he's going to be limited in innings. Matt Stephen Mattz, which you and I both know well of course as Mets fans, and Ross Stripling had a terrible year last year.
Maybe bounces back.
The rotation is bad, but they are going to score so many runs, especially now they're going to be playing in Dunnaedean. I think that's how it's pronounced, by the way, but that is an extreme Dunedin.
Dunedin.
You know, all right, it doesn't matter.
It doesn't matter.
Somebody tweeted us and figure out that has Adjo piece be a seventy okay. But regardless of what it is, it is an extreme hitters park. And you go to that lineup and it's not just Springer. By the way, I kind of really liked the under the radar signing of Marcus Simeon too, because now you look at that, look at that lineup, Joe go down from the top to the bottom. It's Springer, Bashett, Semion, Tascar, Hernandez, Vlattie.
Bugio Guriel. Like that is a lineup.
I mean, they're gonna probably win a lot of twelve ten games given everything like that. They don't have a great bullpen. I do like Herbie Yates, but he's got to bounce back and we need to see that and everything like that. The thing is they have a farm system, right They have a very solid farm system. So if they're in contention, they're going to go for It's clear what they're doing. They are going for it right now.
So even though the pitching staff is weak, even though the bullpen is mediocre, unless Yates returns to top form, in which case they have one of the best closers in the game, I think the lineup is so good that they're going to be able to slightly surpass the eighty six and a half wins. They strike me as more of like an eighty eight twin team, So I lean the over here. Again, not my favorite bet on the board or anything like that, but I do like the over.
You know, we could also make it up and call it Dunidin, which would sound a lot more like a Lord of the Rings place. Yeah, you know, I think that's where you have to do. We give us take the ring to Dunidin, and when you go there find the three eyed pro And yeah, it sounds like that. It's like a big game of thronesy, sort of Lord of the Rings. He kind of plays. You know, you gotta watch out. You don't want to be caught in after dark and Dunidin it's a very dangerous place. Boston
Red Sox eighty and a half ugly. It's the only way to discuss the Red Sox season last year. Eighty and a half is the number. So they're basically just saying, eh, let's throw our hands up. It's a five hundred team, another team that has a lot of questions in the rotation now at Twardo Rodriguez looking good this spring. Yep, perhaps you get a healthy Chris sailback at some point. I think when you're looking at this injury to Xander Bogarts,
you're slightly concerned. It seems like it's going in the right direction. However, sometimes things like that tend to linger. So I don't think it's a question of can they score runs. I think we all know that they can. It's just a matter of the bullpen the back of the rotation. Yet again, here again, this is just what the East is right now. It's kind of you know, you've got those front end pitchers and that's kind of
tough to figure things out. So in my opinion, I think this is again another number whereas I feel good about the Rays over the Blue Jays is another one where I feel barely good about that. I would lean
towards the over. There the Red Sox, I'd actually lean towards the under because I think they're still more I think basically this number is because they're the Red Sox, And I know that sounds crazy, but I think you can get people to wager on the over based on the brand instead of really paying attention to what the roster looks like. Because I think the roster still has enough holes that they're probably just slightly under a five hundred team.
Yep, I agree with that. I lean under.
I think if you put them in another division, maybe you could see them getting to above five hundred. But in this division we just talked about it, three very very good teams, one not so good team, which we'll talk about next. But with those teams, I feel like it's gonna be really tough for this team to get there. And again you mentioned the rotation. All the other teams, they all have your one guy, right, they all have all right, this is our guy. At least they don't have a guy.
I mean, EDWARDO.
Rodriguez is a fine pitcher and I'm really hoping that he returns.
To full health.
But that is not an ace pitcher, I mean, nor is Nathan Devaldi. So their rotation is really not strong. And their lineup, hopefully I mean, is Jadi Martinez. I'm buying into the bounce back for Jadie Martinez, but we still need to see it. And Xander Bogart's again is already dealing with the shoulder thing. I don't think that the lineup is going to be the red Sox lineup of old and the bullpen is just mediocre. I mean, I don't trust Matt Barnes to close games or Adam
out of you know, whoever wins it. The rest of them, braz Or, Sawamura, Hernandez, like, they're just not that impressive.
So for me, again, I lean the under here.
This is not as strong this division. The numbers are not strong. I don't get a stronglyan. There are other spots where I have much stronger leans. I lean under like you, I think we see this the same way in another division, maybe over, but in the East, I'm going under.
I just think this is a carryover from last year. You know this, Yes, last year was ugly, but they have not fixed enough of the issues. Where are the issues that they fixed? They're not there.
Well, I think they're operating more like a small market team, which is fine. I like I you know, the GM Bloom, I mean, we almost hired him for the Mets job before we hired Brody van Wagon and that that's sort of the way he operates, right Like, he comes from a small market background, and its fine for them, that's what they're doing. But I think everybody kind of needs to understand that is what they're doing. They're not sort of wasting things right now. They're fully content to not
be in contention this year. So it's a team that, again, if it comes down to it, if they're not in contention, they'll be willing to sell off pieces that they can and build up for next year.
So I do lean the end I think they can make. I'll say what, I think you can make some money on the Red Sox under this year. I do. I just think too many people are just buying into the concept that it's it's the Red Sox They're going to be better. No, I think they're still in this transition, and they might even be into it in the first half of twenty twenty two. All right, let's go into the next one. Here, the Baltimore Orioles close out the East sixty four and a half. Not the greatest number,
sixty four and a half. You're gonna lose about one hundred games or so. So here's the idea. It's whether or not you believe that they're just gonna get pummeled by the rest of this division, which I think they probably are. You know, the low numbers typically I see the low number and I like to go over. I like to give some parts a little bit work. Of course, now I have a hard time doing that here. I just gonna be honest with you. Are you having the same hard time?
Oh, I'm under I'm character Ye.
It's such a low number, but yeah, this is one hundred lost team.
Like it just is. I mean, Joe, you and I do fantasy baseball.
Obviously we are fantasy baseball, Quoe unquote experts and you I like John.
Means like I do like them.
M I don't think before I kind of was really digging into it, I could have named another Oriole starter.
Can people listening right now name another starter?
Jim Palmer, Jim.
Bomber was at one point start.
Dylan Bundy was not a good starter for them before he went to the Drews.
It's I mean Keegan Aiken.
Dean Kramer or he Lopez, Like, this is not a major leaguer talk about some rotations. This is not a major league rotation. And their lineup is fine. You and I are big tray man senior guys. I like Ryan Mountcastle, but not good enough to compete with these other lineups. So, and the bullpend isn't great at all. So there's just nothing about this that screams you're gonna be able to like become a sixty five sixty six win team in this division again, where every team, even the Red Sox
are not gonna be terrible. We're not like a seventy six win team. They're gonna be a round five hundred. So for me, it's a low number. But yeah, this is a team I'm fading. I will go under the sixty four and a half here with the Orioles.
Yeah, I kind of worry because they're gonna play teams from the central two and there's some better teams they were gonna get into a second, and I think that's to be where I would lean the under as well. It's because of the rest of the league. Even when they go play West Coast road trips and some of those teams in the West that are gonna give them fits, the Angels are gonna give them a hard time. The A's look, but let's let's move on to the White Sox here in the central because this is one where
I am excited right now. Ninety one and a half here we go. I'm finally excited. Why I always get excited when it comes to the Central I don't know why. I'm just a I'm just a Midwestern kind of guy.
Well, are you excited for the over excited.
Danny boy? I am excited for the over ninety one and a half going on? Have we seen this lineup? They added Lance Lynn, he's a horse, Lint, Giolito, Kikeel, They've got some other guys too. They've got Dylan cs and Lopez and who knows what Kopek can give them. They fixed the ninth inning when they brought in a shutdown closer. You have a lineup that doesn't quit. Oh
my goodness, ninety one and a half. I saw this and I just wanted to immediately go and find all the places where I could go and wager on it, because I do feel like this is something where they're not giving the White Sox enough credit, and I think it's time we do, because this is a team that is young, that is hungry, that already proved last year the concept and now they're just coming back for more and they've got the rating MVP on their team as well.
In jse Bree, you, I just think this team is much better than people realize and I also think this whole division, you know, Minnesota and the Indians are going to the Cleveland baseball team, as it might be right now, it's.
Going to take are still the Indians, right? I think they don't know all.
Right anyway if they are changes either way either way, I think it's safe to just apologize. So White Sox for you ninety one and a half? What do you do?
I kind of stay away from it, But all right.
Here run through the village on this one.
Let's point out a couple of things. Okay.
Number one, there are books out there FanDuel, in particular ninety and a half, so if you like it, you can get it even better at ninety one and a half, which is a consensus ligne. Again, on our betting pros Consensus MLB Betting Pros dot Com slash MLB Wins, you can look at the win totals for every team, the consensus line, and the individual sports books.
So you're looking at it.
The consensus line is ninety one and a half, but there are a couple of Fox bet fandel that are at ninety and a half, seeing ge an even better line if you like the over, if you're.
Available to bet in those markets. Here it is You're right. Everything you said is right, and I've dug into this team and I can't poke holes in it. Okay, it really can't. Their lineup is extremely extremely strong. It just is. There really is no holes in it.
There are rotation you mentioned it, Linn, and especially a year like this where you're coming off where you don't know if you can count on the innings that you're gonna get from most pictures, you can count on the innings you're gonna get from Lynn.
Gilido is great, of course, Kiko is very good.
Maybe the back end of their rotation is a little weak, but you mentioned it that got Copec waiting to come add basically the best closer in the game, and Aaron Bummer was probably okay to step in even if not. Here's what worries me, Joe, And it's probably silly to give this this much credit because there are teams that projection systems just kind of you know, they can't get a hold of, like the A's and the Braves, right,
the projection systems are always way below them. The projection Pakoda right, like one of the most well known projection systems eighty two and a half wins.
That's what they had for the Braves too or something.
I agree the break there are certain there are certain teams historically, and they do it every single year. And they also overvalue a couple of teams every year, which we'll get to one of those teams we get to the West.
They undervalue certain teams every single year because.
I think they can't quantify certain parts of their team, whether it's the deepense or you know with the Rays sometimes the way they're able to, you know, basically outmaneuver everybody. I don't know what it is with the White Sox, and historically I don't think they go under on the White Sox. So I've been thinking that that that makes me extremely worried. When a projection system is nine wins nine wins different than what the over under is, so I nine times I you know, I'm just basically I
understand over. I'm not betting the under, but I'm staying away from it.
And it's a simple thing. And people want to be like, what do you mean.
So you like the team, you think they could go over, but the projection system is so far down, so you're off.
Yeah.
I hate to say it, but I am, because when it's that big a difference, Joe, A nine win difference for me is enough for me to say, am I missing something with this team? And I can't quantify it yet? So for me, I'm staying away. But if there is a way to go, it is over.
I will agree with you that closer check, rotation check, I got you check, depth in the system check. I got more checks. I got more checks. I want to checks check list. So power check, speed check, defense, big check. A lot of good defenders too. Madrigal is a good defender and over the app Now, honestly, it's gonna be tricky with Vaughn playing d H what you do with the lay not the greatest defender, but he's gonna be out there. But I think that's part of the acquisition there,
of bringing in the man. Meeting too is strewing up you know, a lot of the outfield defense. So all right, I'm telling you right now, I think they're closer to one hundred win team than they are a ninety win team.
All right, So you're you're really going over here. Maybe maybe it's maybe for me, maybe what's holding me back. In addition to Pakoda is Tony LaRussa, Like, what happens.
The one check I did not check because I don't.
You you conspicuously forgot the manager. Yeah, I think for me again, you know, maybe it's gonna be anything. You're going to see a bat flip Like this team is young and cool and loose and.
Bat flippy, and I feel like you're gonna be like, did you just bat flip your bench for three games? And stuff like that. You could feel like it's the.
Same guy who manages the A's flipping bats and thy years ago.
Man, another time, that was a whole nother time.
Only the versa cares about one thing, winning. If they're winning, they could do whatever the hell they want. If they're using that's a different story.
All right.
Well, if you work for Pakoda and you are listening to this podcast, mess m me on Twitter and explain to me why you're saying.
When you say Pakoda, I always think of Bill Pakota or like immediately and that shows my age.
I just put that you're an old man.
All right. Minnesota Twins are next eighty eight and a half. Now, this number feels right to me. This is one that I'm running away from. Uh, the Twins, I could do the opposite checklist. Everything could break right, but Donaldson's health couldn't. This could be finally the year Nelson Cruz, God forbid, isn't Nelson Cruz, Sario is gone, still hasn't taken that step forward. My Ada is coming off a career year, all these things. Buckston's always hurt, no strikes out every
five seconds. There's so many negatives. I can look at this team and I think that that's a sound way of looking at it. And if you could look at all those negatives, it would tend towards an under But I know that not every negative is going to happen for the Twins. So I think this is a good number. This is a stay away number for me. I'm bullish on the white Sox. I am passive about the Twins. What do you think about Minnesota this year? In that eighty eight and a half?
I agree with you that it's a pretty It seems like a pretty sharp number to me. And again, you know the last two years one hundred and one wins and then they were on a ninety seven win pace last year.
It's a good team and not that much has changed.
But I agree with you like it is really easy to see this falling off a cliff because again, Nelson Cruise is a thousand years old, and although everything looks good and he continues to get it done, and he continues to be undervalue generally, like the wheels fall off for every.
Time, eventually, eventually except that except it's true, not obviously, but Buckston, you're right.
I mean if Buckston, if I knew Buckston were gonna be healthy the whole season, I would love it. But obviously never is Josh Donaldson feels like he's about to break down. Is Miguel Snow gonna play to the eightyeh percent? All of his possible outcomes are the twentieth?
You never know? But their team is like it's it's solid.
I mean that the big you know, Brios, my Eta, and I like Pineda. I like adding Jay Happ at the end of the rotation as well. I like adding out Klome, who continues to get it done despite Miniogre stuff in the bullpen. So it does strike me as a team that's gonna be above five hundred. But there's enough downside for me if everything goes right that I agree with you, I kind of want to stay away from the numbers, it's a solid number something I don't really love.
Yeah, it's better than five hundred team, but I don't think they're a ninety win team in that stay away. Now, this next one, I like the over two. It's the Cleveland baseball team, the Indians eighty one and a half. And the reason is they have pitching. You know, when we talk about all these other teams that go, oh, what about the three and the four and the five, Well, guess what this is. One goes all the way. You know, you start with Bieber, who's probably the best pitcher in
the American League besides Garret Cole. You can have that conversation. But then after that, you've got Plisek, You've got Savale, who I think very highly of. You've got Tristan McKenzie. I mean, there's always the sense that Cleveland will find a way, and they keep rereading these young pitchers and turning it over. And yes, they did lose lind Door,
but they did bring in Rosario and that's good. And I just feel like from the Indian standpoint, they have the manager, they have the pitching that's enough to be more than a five hundred team, and they're just giving them five hundred. Eighty one and a half is five hundred. They're better than that. They're eighty four eighty five in my opinion, somewhere around there. So for me, I actually think Cleveland's gonna have a streak or two in the year.
It's gonna put them over five hundred because that pitching can be so dominant at times, and that is something that other teams don't all have. So when they go and play some of the lesser teams in the East or in the West, they're gonna feast on those teams with that pitching. That's my take on Cleveland. What's yours.
I'm not like running to the over here just because I feel like Cleveland every single year. And again it's we talked a little bit about it with the Rays. It's like their whole is greater than the summer their parts. They're somehow able to do it. They are masters at getting these guys like Poli, Sach and Savale who are like command guys without the greatest stuff, and turning them into borderline dominant pitchers. I don't know how they do it every single year, but they are able to get
that done. Obviously, Karen Tech if he's dominant in the bullpen. I know he had a little bit of some control issues and that you know, his first appearance there, and that might rear their ugly head.
Their lineup is not great.
I think adding at A Rosario really helped a lot. And you know fran Mill's there of course. Jose Ramirez, I don't know, man. I feel like when I look at the parts, it's like a five hundred team and they will it surprise me if they go over.
No, because they always find a way to be better than I feel like they should be. But it strikes me as a five hundred team.
So I mean for me, I guess you know, if I had to go one way or the other, i'd go over.
But there's an over that I like in this division. We haven't gotten there yet.
All right, Well, maybe it's the Kansas City role. Let's see what Dad thinks about them. Seventy three and a half is the number. Now, this is I think a very competitive team. My problem is competitive and wins don't always go hand in hand yep. So that's the tough selling point for me on the seventy three and a half. Now, I would lean towards the over here slightly because I am actually going to go in the under and the next team, and I think that's where the variance comes from.
I think the Royals are closer to the other group than they are the bottom tier. But what do you think about the Royals, because I'm guessing that's the one you're talking about because there's only two left. And I don't think it's the Tigers.
I'm not smashing the over.
Not a guy.
It is the Royals.
It is the Royals in seventy three and a half. They are my favorite one in the division and it's over and I think again part of it is I don't like the Indians.
As much as you.
I have some probably you know, unfounded concerns about the White Sox.
The Twins might not be as good as they.
Usually are, and I think the Royals are where they're going to make up a little bit of the difference. We've talked about it. On the fantasy side. We really like what they have done this offseason for that sneaky good offense, right like with Meryfield, Andrew Ben and Tenny who you and I both think can bounce back with the change of scenery sal Perez.
Carlos Santana was a nice little just sneaky little ad jorgez.
Sohilaire still has the power you've got at Albert Delmandesi gonna probably lead the league in steals.
Hunter Dozer we like as a bounce back who they signed to an extension.
Michael Taylor finally is gonna get some regular playing time and he can do some damage.
The lineup really from top to bottom.
It doesn't blow you away. It doesn't have superstars, but it's a long lineup. It's gonna be tough to get through them.
And I like the rotation.
Not love the rotation, but I think they've got enough quality arms that they're going to be able to put out somebody pretty much each and every time through the rotation. That's going to be like, this guy should keep us in the game, whether it's Duffy or Kelly Keller pardon me, or minor or Singer. I mean, I think that those guys are gonna be able to do it. Greg Holland like maybe the Wheels fall back off. I feel like they fell off and came back on and they might fall off again.
That's fine wheels anymore.
The eighth in a guy.
Uh, guy's been on donuts. It's fuir, I'm pretty.
Sure, or stomach. I forget how to pronounce them. Stalmont, he's done it. He their reliever, the needed really throw. He throws gas so he can really step in again. I think that the fact that they signed Dozer to the extension. I think this team sort of feels like it might have arrived quote unquote a little earlier than they expected, and they're willing to kind of play themselves into contention. So this strikes me as like a high
seventies win team. I still think they'll probably be below five hundred, but it strikes me as like seventy eight seventy nine win team for me.
So I really like the over. This is one of my favorite bets of the season.
Bobby Wood Junior is pushing the envelope a little bit too. I like me some Bobby Wood Junior. I was very high on him when he was drafted. I thought that was a great pick by the Royals, and he looks like he might force their hand at some point. I don't think it's a willing to do it.
But by the way, I will say, Joe, it was seventy three and a half.
That's what we had, will double check e seventy three and a half.
Correct, it just dropped to seventy two and a half. So now I'm even going more because again.
In the middle of this conversation, wait, I checked before, right before it was any that's what we do.
We moved here at ed Bruce.
I'm going and again I you know, as I said, the consent assign now has moved to seventy two and a half. There are seventy three and a half, so it's basically right in between. But for me again, I'm a New Hampshire DraftKings seventy two and a half, juiced a little bit towards the over, so I get it, but I'm taking it with seventy th and a half all day long, all.
Right, last one here Detroit Tiger sixty eight and a half spoiler alert under for me, yeah, I'm sorry, I'm just not buying this like I'm just this is a very competitive division. It's a deep division. Yeah, And I actually feel better about this under than I feel about the Baltimore under by a long shot, because I'm getting four games difference here. So I'm gonna hammer an al
under on a terrible team. The Tigers are the one to me because this is one of the tougher divisions where I think all the teams ahead of them are just clearly a cut above. So that's my take, and I just don't think the rest of this team is ready to take over yet. They're gonna be a fun team in a couple of years, and that sounds great, but you know what, it's twenty one, so it's not happening this year.
That is the correct answers. I used to like to say on the fantas side, I agree with you. I'm under on this too. And I feel bad because like it feels so easy to take these horrible teams and they've got really low wind totals and you're just like.
No, I don't care, it's not low enough. But I agree.
And again the Tigers, basically they've come out and said what they're doing.
They're like, we are lowing our payroll. We don't want to you know, We're.
We're slashing prices.
We are overloaded with the Migey contract. So we've got these guys.
On one year deals. We will sell them all off at the deadline. We will wait for our young kids to be here.
They have no.
Interest in trying to be competitive this year. They have very little talent on their team. So sixty eight and a half they were at a sixty four win pace I believe last year. So I agree with you. I know it's the bottom feeders, but I will take the under them both.
All right, let's move on to the west here. The Houston Astros are at the time top of it. Theoretically with eighty seven and a half. They just lost fran Bervaldez probably for the season. I guess they probably were still waiting to figure that out.
Forrest Whitley, by the way, where a fractured finger takes you out for the whole.
Man, I saw that thing. I saw the fractured finger, was like, oh, well he'll be behind. And then like twenty four hours later as he could miss the whole season, and I thought, what I can imagine if this was in the sixties or the fifties, they would say like, well, just just patch it back up and go pick pitch. Seven years with no thumb, how do you think he did that? Let me tell you something good.
Oh god, so old, I'm so sorry. Everybody.
A forward pitch, it's a. It's a baseball reference. But anyway, the rotations falling apart, and we haven't even started. Like Forrest Whitley has got the UCL so he's done.
Forget that.
Second opinion is gonna be the same as the first opinion, which is gonna be Tommy John and I think the Astros are gonna be good. I just want to stay away from the Astros again. I see too many variables here, and when I see lots of different outcomes with the team, and this could be a team that smashes this number. They could win ninety four games this year. Yeah, I'm telling you they have this kind of talent still on
this roster. If Alvarez bounces back, if Altuve is right and plays one hundred and fifty games, if they get Zach Greenki to really lead this rotation, and maybe mccollor's or somebody else steps up in that void. But there's too many bots. And that's my problem with the Astro so eighty seven and a half, Sorry, I'm out. I'm not nearly as excited as I was about the White Sox. So your turn, Astros eighty seven and a half, What are you doing?
Uh? Yeah, I'm going over.
I feel less happy about it after the Cramberg Valdez injury for sure, and obviously Whitley, but I'm still over again. This is a Pakoda sort of variance, not that I live and die by Pokoda or anything like that, but there.
Sounds like you do I don't. I just think you've got stock in Pakota after this show.
I wouldn't mind it.
But the bottom line is that when there's a huge difference between Pakoda and the Window, like, there's a reason that I try to sort of dig into why that is. And again, sometime they undervalue the Braves all the time, and the Rays too, so they're not the be all in all. But I do like Houston and again the
Imber Valdez like that. That's terrible. But that whole lineup is going to bounce back, right like everybody like Bregman and altuvan krah And you saw even in the playoffs how Altu van Kraa already did kind of bounce back. So I expect the lineup to be really good again if Alvarez is healthy.
Finally Tucker is in there ready to go.
So I like the lineup a lot and their ritation again they immediately went out and signed Oderezi right like immediately sort of did that to sort of say, okay, well we've got to figure it out. And I don't love Oderezy, but he'll give you innings. And then the rest of it is finer. Kiati Is is not terrible,
Javier is fine. I like mccullors as a bounce back, really, I do, and with Granky, So for me, this is a team who I realized, like there's no Verlander anymore, of course, and then they lost Valdez and all that, but it still strikes me as a team where the lineup is good enough, the management is good enough. I think actually Dusty Baker now has become from this guy who burned out all his pitchers to a guy who is kind of like listening to analytics at this point from what I can tell.
So I like it.
I think they're gonna go. I think they're more of a ninety one team, so I will go with you over here. Even with the Valdez injury.
My biggest disappointment is I don't get to sing my song about Franber Valdez because on the DFS show last year, it was always Framber was the color of my energy all the time, and I would sing that song and every time he had a quality start, which was a lot, and I made a lot of money. What franber Valdez last year? So Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim eighty three and a half. Ooh, another team. This is really whether or not you believe in doing Bundy. I'm telling you
right now. If you believe in doing Bundy, then you like this over if you and show hey, O Tommy, if you think those guys are going to throw I don't know, one hundred and let's say three hundred innings between them, let's say one hundred and fifty for each let's throw that out there, or one hundred and I like some combination one sixty one forty. I don't care whatever you want to do. If you believe in those two guys, I think you liked the eighty three and
a half. Otherwise I think this is the same old Angels, like, yeah, it looks like it could be good. Maybe, but at the end of the day, it's the pitching that said they're undoing.
I'm happy I get to do this because we were joking about me in Pokoda Pakoda has them at eighty six wins and I love the under here okay.
At eighty the eighty three, wow, I like the under a lot. I don't get it with this. I just don't. I don't get it. They haven't. I don't think they've gone over this number.
I don't know. All I know is Mike Trout has three playoff appearances?
What since fifteen? Twenty fifteen? I just looked it up.
Twenty fifteen was the last time that they have gone over eighty three and a half wins. And I don't understand what is so exciting about this year where suddenly we're like, look at this team, Okay, look at.
The improvements we had. What are the improvements?
Like, I like, Dylan, Buddy, there's no way I'm relying on shoe Aotani by the way, There's just no way. And like, okay, is this the year Andrew Heeney is finally gonna stay healthy and really take that next step. Hosea Jose Kintana, you know what he is at this point, he'll give you. It's like they were just I kudos to them for basically being like, we are going to make up for our lack of top end talent by just throwing a thousand pictures in there, and so like.
When we lose one, we can throw another mediocre start.
I like Griffin Canning, but I don't expect them necessarily to stay healthy the whole year. And Cobb, I mean, at this point, their rotation just isn't good. I like that they added a Glaciers, but they're bullpen still as a whole is not great. Defensively they are bad. They lost Andrelton Simmons as well. So really, I just don't get this team. This is not a five hundred team. To me, I don't understand it. And I again, I think the A's are again going to be good, and
we'll talk about them in a minute. And I like the Astros a lot more so. Maybe it's that, but I do not understand that. I love the under end this one. I'm not going near the eighty three and a half wins under all that.
I thought they should have signed Trevor Bower. I thought that was the thing.
Why aren't they going out there and signing like a really really top end pitcher, you know what? Instead they do they're like, let's just add a mediocre outfielderer like that that's sort of there. You know, they have so much money, go out and assign the top end of the rotation starter Already.
It's puzzling, to say the least. The Oakland A is also always undervalued. Every year now a little less, so this year, eighty six and a half is the number this actually feels about right now. Here's the thing. If you can find eighty five and a half somewhere or even something lower, at some point, I would think about that. Here's what the A's for me is. If this young pitching all clicks ye, if it's aj Puck, if it's Hazel's Lozardo, if Montas bounces back, they're gonna crush this.
I'm telling you, they're gonna be probably fighting with Houston for the top of this division. If you're pitching does what they're capable of? The question is innings. The question is the war of attrition, and if the A's are up to the task. So I'll ask you do you think they are?
I think so, yeah.
I mean I don't feel as strongly about it as I do on the Angels.
And again, they're at eighty six. Everywhere. Every book is eighty six at this point. So this is eighty six and a half. That's we're going to get it again.
This is one I'm just pointing it out because we were teasing about me that this is one where Pokoda is under, like significantly under. But again, this is one where I think they just don't whatever their projection system is, they don't know how to capture what these teams are that are so forward thinking. And yeah, I like again another one where like the whole is greater than the some of their parts, you know.
Their rotation.
As you mentioned, Bassett is kind of a sneaky, decent major league starter, right Lozardo who we like for the upside. I really like Frankie Montass. Sounds like he's recovered from the COVID nineteen. Shan Manya obviously is there. Mike Fires is all there. They're all fine. They you know, they lost Hendrix, but they've got Rosenthal. He's battling a groin injury right now, but sounds like he'll be okay. The
lineup as a whole is just solid. It doesn't blow you away, but they find ways to sort of do it. And they added Elvis Andris. It's basically been a ninety seven win team. You give them their pace from last year for three straight seasons, Like, this is just a team that knows how to win games. They're well coached, they're well managed. So eighty six and a half, I
lean towards the over. I'm not as excited about it again as I am about the under on the Angels, but this is the one where I lean definitely towards the over.
Okay, two other teams here before we close things out. We got the Seattle Mariners at seventy two and a half. Tricky one because we're excited about some of the young talent. But this kind of sounds like something we saw about before with some of these other teams, Like, Yeah, I'm excited about Detroit's youug talent, but where are the wins? Seventy two and a half once again? Kind of feels about right, Yeah, ten games under five hundred. Yeah, that sounds like the Marinders to me.
Yep.
So it's a hard pass for me. How about for you?
Man?
I love it when we disagree on things, but I do not disagree with you here.
This is like a hard pass from me.
There's a line that I say to my wife when we're joking, which is a line from Brooklyn nine nine, which is after zero consideration, I can confidently say hard pass.
And that's basically how I feel on this.
Like I looked at this and I was like, yeah, I guess it could all go really well, but no, this is like ten games under five hundred.
It's exactly what this team.
I mean, not ten games, but ten games you know, over what it would take to get to five hundred. That's exactly what this team looks like to me, So hard pass, staying far away from it, no interest in betting it either way.
And then there's a Texas Rangers sixty seven and a half, another one too, where I just don't see him mat you know, sometimes with a team, you want to see a plan. I have no idea what the Rangers plan is. The Rangers have no idea what their plan is. I see Joey Gallo, I see some home runs. I see they'll probably win somewhere around I don't know. Sixty seven games.
Once again, just hard passway because I don't I don't see how they get above it, and it's already too low of a number where if I had to lean I probably lean slightly on the over here, just because like, I just don't know if they're closer to losing one hundred games as this total is telling you. But then again, you look at the rest of this rotation, you go, oh maybe, I mean, this is another rotation that is
it's brutal. They are the pitching haves and have nots, and I just think over one sixty two this year off the COVID season, where people don't have any stamina, it is going to be glaringly obvious, which is why I keep coming back to Cleveland because Cleveland does have that, and I think that is a huge separator where if you're gonna give you a five hundred Cleveland team, you take your shot on that one because it's a good chance that that pitching wins out over the long haul.
But the Texas Rangers sixty seven and a half, I'm out, where are you?
And it's a good point on Cleveland.
By the way, I think that's try every now and then something smart once everyone.
Show firshit, I look, this is something.
Where I like you, this is not like one of my favorite bets on the board, I actually have forced to choose. I would lean under there are sixty six and a half's out there, so if you know at that point, especially stay away. Sixty seven and a half, I kind of lean under. Again, this is a team that a does not seem to have interest in competing
this year. The bullpen is really bad. Jose Leclerk, I guess will Close, and I Jonathan Hernandez now I just today has something apparently with his jucll and his elbow. So the bullpen really is not going to be good. The offense, I like Willie Calhoun, and I like Joey.
Gallo, and that's about it.
And the rotation is just yeah, it's I mean, I like Dane Dunning, you know, as a long term guy, and but yeah, Kyle Gibson is your number one.
That's just not gonna work.
So, oh god, I.
Would lean under.
I would lean under, but I'm not nearly as strong as the Tigers and the Orioles, the bottom feeders of those divisions. I like those much more so. Mostly a stay away from me, but I had, if I had to choose, I would lean under.
All I want to remind everybody hit us up at bettingpros dot com, and of course you could check out the MLB win totals at bettingpros dot Com, Slash MLB wins Dan anything else going on fun and exciting in the world of VP.
Uh these days, We've got so much March Madness stuff that's about to drop.
It's going to be awesome.
We're gonna have this bracket optimizer, which I'm not even gonna tell you about yet because I'm gonna wait till the launches where it is going to be spectacular. You are going to be able to fill out a bracket depending on where your play and your your scoring system that they warred points on it, depending on the size of your pool.
You can start with a.
Consensus sort of picks of people who have put in brackets. If you like, trust a bunch of people like we do with consensus experts. It is going to be spectacular. Be on the lookout for the bracket optimizer. We will have more about that next week.
I need a life optimizer. Let's let's get working on that. We get the life optimizer and then we're then we're all set.
So we're in works for it for you. But it's like forty years in development, so we got.
Okay, I'm not going anywhere. I have a very long term contract here Just to recap too, I am very bullish on the White Sox and the Indians. That's where really I'm looking Dan. Final thoughts here as we close the close the door on the American League win totals.
Yeah, I love the Royals over.
I think this team is definitely going to be closer to five hundred than people are giving them credit for. At the same time, I really like the under on the Angels because.
I do not get it.
They are poor defensively, the rotation is mediocre at best. The bullpen is just okay. So those are my two favorite over on the Royals under on the Angels.
All right, that'll do it for us, but the story of the game goes on. For Dan Harris, I'm Joe Pizzapia. We'll see you next time, kids,