The Welsh and I sat down with Derek Carty to talk about some of the best bets you can make in Major League Baseball in twenty twenty five. Joining us Derek Carty for the great minds and sports, just sports, and fantastic hair. By the way, I feel very inadequate today. Welsh's hair is extremely Jimmy Neutron high. Derek Carty has got a really nice lift going on. I, on the other hand, clean as a whistle, but nothing to show up there. But we've got a lot to show you today.
We have a phenomenal lineup coming in the next couple hours here for you. So stay with us for all of the fantasy baseball fests because we're gonna talk about the players you should target, the players you should avoid. We're gonna talk prospects, we're gonna talk bus we're gonna talk breakouts, We're gonna talk all of it right now. Before we do, we're also gonna give away some free stuff. And we've got an amazing giveaway today Chris Sale autograph Jersey.
That's right, Cy Young winner, Chris Sale. And we're giving this bad boy away right now. So how do you win it? Well, you drop a comment below on the stream and subscribe to the Fantasy Pros MLB YouTube channel. That's all you gotta do, and we'll be announcing the winner right here on the stream. So stay tuned and send those comments in, and don't forget to ring the belt of the coasting for notification so you never miss a piece of content here on the channel. End Welsh.
I'm very excited for baseball season and watching some spring training games the last couple of days. I'm at that point though, where I'm like, all right, I'm done, I'm over spring training. Derek Cardy, are you like that as well, where you just feel like spring training just lingers? Maybe that one extra week too long, because that's where I'm at.
Yeah, I can always use the extra week to get stuff prepared, But in terms of just like wanting baseball right now, yeah, like I'm ready.
There you go, We're ready to go. And what we're going to talk about with Derek Carty today is some of our best Major League Baseball bets. Now I've already put a few of them out there. I'm going to be locking them in Betting Pros, So make sure you subscribe to Betting Pros as well. That channel, but also get the betting pros app and you can follow me at Joe Pisapo there. Because I have a lot of big feelings about some of these futures. I want to start with a low wind total here of the Chicago
White Sox, because Derek Carty, that's where you're starting. And I understand the White Sox are bad, and I love that small numbers sometimes are easy w's. But I want to hear the reasoning behind this White Sox over on the wind total.
Yeah, I'm sure this is the first bet that everybody that's tuning in wants to here. You tune in to hear me talk about why the White Socks are going to be are going to be good this year.
I think you did this with the A's last year, didn't didn't you. It's like you just got to pick the bottom barrel of it all. I love it, Cardi, we'll get in the mud.
We're going with the White Sox over over sixty or over fifty three and a half wins. I think the best line right now is might like minus one tenant DraftKings. This opened at fifty at some books, and it's been creeping up. There's some sixty four and a half's out there. Now you look at what the bad X. My projection system is projecting for the White Sox though, it's projecting sixty six wins and we're getting a fifty three and a half line, Like, it's just absurd. The line is
too low. It's too low. I said the same thing last year with Oakland, and it worked out really nicely when a team was as bad or looked as bad as the White Sox did last year. Of course the betting market is going to be, like, nobody wants to bet the over on them, so we can set whatever line we want, because no one really wants to bet the over.
No matter what line we put.
And so they said it even lower than they probably should, and that gives us. That gives us value on betting the over if we.
Have the stones to do it.
So, yeah, the White Sox were really really bad last year. They are actually a really bad team, but they're not like historically bad. Probably most teams are not just by sheer.
Probably they were last year. They were historically bad last year. But to your point, yeah, but.
Are they actually that bad or did they just were they bad? Combined with just like you know bad variants over one hundred and sixty two games. Most likely it's the second one.
They're bad.
I haven't projected for the second fewest wins in baseball this year, or maybe even the most or losses rather or maybe the most losses in baseball, but fifty three and a half is extremely low. You have to be really, really, really bad, and it's almost impossible to project any team's true talent level to be that bad.
Ever, and by the way, people don't people realize they should. Derek Cardi, creator of the bat and the bat x projections, which you can see on Fangraphs, and you see all over the place rated out this year as well on the baseball projections here at Fantasy Pros. One question for
you on that total. When you're doing season long totals like this where you're getting minus money bets, so you're, you know, you're a fifty three and a half I think was the number, and you're betting a season long at minus money, what's your relative approach to Like I wanna go too crazy into like unit betting, but like you know, like someone's like, hey, you know, I usually bet this on normal stuff. But you got to wait a whole season long, Like, what is your approach to
betting this? Are you like five units in when you're betting a win total to play out for the whole season? Same thing I guess would apply for The only problem is like awards, you know you're getting big plus money these type of like over home run, I've got one I'm gonna play or something like this, Like how are you unit betting this type of bet?
Yeah, I mean minus one tens standard, so you know, it's it's kind of you know, your normal amount. The only thing I'll say is that I don't put a ton into season long props just because you have to wait until the end of the season or in the case of the White Sox maybe until August.
And that's that's kind of what I mean by there, because like you're investing in a standard one ten bet, but it's dragging over the entire season, Like, are you more compelled to be like, well, if I'm going to season long this, I love this. This has got to be you know, five units in what I would normally do on just a daily bet.
Yeah, it's a it's not a question that has an actual correct answer. It's kind of just like how do you feel about tying up your money that long? What does your bankroll look like? What do you want to you know, be able to have in the chamber for the season. This one does project really well. I'm not the kind of person though that it's like, well, this one I like a lot, so I'm just going to
fire five or ten units at it. The way I approach betting is that I'm going to place a lot of bets long term, and usually i'm I'm flat betting, and so I'm not saying, Okay, this one's definitely gonna win, and this one I don't know if this one's gonna win. Like every bet I place, I think is positive expected value. I place the bet I'm going to lose some and in the long run I expect to win more than I lose and to come out profitable.
And that's that's always been the case.
So here, I do think the edge on this one is big, but I'm not recommending you bet your.
House on it.
No, Well that's good, you know. It's funny. Timing is everything when it comes to wagers. Two. Because I went and bet the Red Sox over the weekend before the Garrett Cole News and the quote unquote second opinion came out to win the American League East and I got a number in the three fifties and now it's dropped to the two seventies after the Garrett Cole news drop. So timing is everything when you're looking at making your wagers too. So if you see opportunities.
On some anti Yankees bets earlier that are looking look pretty good right now, like Yankee not to make the playoffs plus two point fifty.
Kind of thing or under ninety wins or whatever it was said.
At Yeah, well Derek Cary has already got me going after the show to bet something else now that he's dropped that one on me. But that's the whole point is that you know, when you anticipate good news or bad news, there's sometimes value in the market, and that's something you have to pay attention to that's out there now. I see, don't give him the stick? Has a question? Can we ask questions answer our the live stream? The answer is yes, yes, you absolutely can. We want your
questions here, so drop them. We'll try to get through as many as we can. But if you definitively must have your question answered, you need it you got to keep your question, you got a draft going on, whatever you got happening, you can superchat us as well. So superchats are available today and we will get to as many, if not all, the super chats and they will get priority in our chat. But doesn't mean you can't just
drop some questions in there too. We're going to do our best, and we appreciate you as always making sure that you support our channel by subscribing, and we're trying to get a twenty five thousand before we get to opening day. I think we can do it. We're getting very close. I believe in us, and of course Welsh and I will do something stupid in honor of twenty five thousand. So if that's not inxtentive, I don't know
what is. Speaking of the Boston Red Sox so I mentioned earlier Garrett Crochet, well you've got a wager on him that you're looking to place, and I really like this one too. It's one that I am planning on betting as soon as he gets right there at the end of spring training. I don't like to make too many bets before spring training's over because anything can happen, but this one is definitely all my rdar. Well let's talk about it.
Yeah, and I don't do as well a bunch of crazy season long bets like Cardi saying it's not huge in my market. But last year on this Fantasy Fest, what was my play, Joe, It was stolen based leader Ellie de la Cruz at six to one. This is my Ellie for this year, and it is Garrett Crochet to lead the league in strikeouts, and I found it as good as ten to one right now, so even better than that Ellie number. As you can see up
on the screen, we've got some projections up there. I'll throw a few things at you with Garrett Croche and you're probably at nauseum. You've heard me talk about Gerrett Croche on Fantasy pros videos everywhere. According to the bat Derek Carty's projection system, Garrett Crochet is projected fifth in the league in strikeouts at two hundred and six so that is twelve less strikeouts than the leader, who is Dylan Cease at two hundred and eighteen strikeouts. But it's
all about the innings. It is all about the innings of Garrett Croche. Thirty more projected innings for that leader Dylan Crue than Garrett Crochet. According to the BAT. In most projection systems, he's right around the one fifty marker one fifty two to be exact, so thirty less innings projected than Dylan Cees. Yet he is one of, if not the top, across multiple projection systems you look. He
is one or two in k per nine. According to the BAT, there are eight projected two hundred strikeout pitchers. Six of those eight have at least one hundred and seventy three or more projected innings, So again, that is twenty less innings than any of those other players. The only other guy is Blake Snell, who is like a strikeout or two less a couple more innings than Garrett Croche.
I love this, I love the team context, the division. Obviously, can you bring in some questions here, but at the end of the day, I think it's easy to play in a world where he can blow past these projected innings. He had one hundred and forty six innings last season last season, and we are barely projecting any positive upside on innings. So now you're looking at a Yankees team that's playing from behind. You guys want to place bets up on the Red Sox to take to the division,
They're gonna need Garrett Crochet more than ever. There's obviously an injury toll of making any starting pitcher bet, but you're looking at one of the highest strikeout pitchers in baseball, and the only thing that is holding him back from every single projection system being the leader in strikeouts are those innings. And I think there is a lot of cushion on those innings, and I think there's a lot
of value on that. That's the other thing. If Garrett Crochet was like four to one or like second in strikeouts, this might feel.
A little bit different.
We're talking close to ten to one right now on this bet. So this is my absolute favorite of any of these. When you talk about awards or you know, season long stat projecting type of things, I love Garrett Croche to lead the league in strikeouts.
CARDI I'd be very curious at what you.
Have to say about this one, because I laid out using your projection system some of what's on Crochet. What do you think about placing this bet.
I like it for basically the reason that that you said, you know, innings are are not even something that most projection systems are projecting directly, like I'm not. I'm just using ATC's basically aggregate innings projections. We don't know which pictures are going to stay healthy, Like the innings are just kind of like this guy hasn't really done it before he could get hurt.
We're going to play conservative.
We don't know if Crochet is one of the guys goes over two hundred innings, like he has the stuff easily to be the leader. So yeah, if you're getting great odds on it, then then I like it because on a per rating basis, Crochet should certainly be better than ten to one.
Yeah, and right now plus eight point fifty in some markets I've seen has even gone down to So this is one where you know, one less guy. And Garrett Cole too now enters into that conversation too, so you can see all of a sudden, when the field starts to whittle down, all of a sudden, less competition. I think the innings is clearly the only thing we have to worry about here. But I'm with you, Wash, I'm not super worried, and I'm starting to really buy the Red Sox here. I have him in a parlay for
a couple division. I like to do those. They're fun. You throw a ten bucks, you can win a couple grand. I got real close on two NFL ones last year, one of which I did get late on a redo that was a very nice return. But one of them was I think it was like twenty bucks or something. It would have brought back three grand, and I missed it by one division. One division I got wrong. Very frustrating, but it's fun. Nonetheless, this is the ride we take here.
Let's also go back to Cardi here for another one of his picks. Before we do, I want to get to some questions also that I have in the chat right here from tough talk with teachers for end of the show. Here, would you keep both Gunner and Trey Turner in a keeper league? Cardi? Let's ask you this question here. What do you think about Trey Turner and Gunner? I know Gunner is dealing with some health issues right now. Trey Turner, you know, obviously a slow start last year,
but things kind of came back around. I feel comfortable keeping both these guys. If I can only keep one, I'm keeping Gunner. But what are your thoughts here.
It kind of depends on what your alternatives are. How many tempers? I mean, yeah, they're both worth keeping in the right situation.
You're worried about Gunner's health, You're worried about Turner a little bit, like he doesn't project as well as he has in past years. But but yeah, if they if they kind of set up as your best guy, sure, I have no problem with that.
Next question here, don't give him the stick? Has one for us we love? Don't give him the stick? Would you would like to get our opinion about rp's and a twelve team headhead categories league generally like to wait until at least the six round of Chase says was seeing rping going earlier in the mock drafts. Here's the thing for me, Welsh is if you have a mandatory RP spots that matters a little bit more. I'm more apt to be a little bit more aggresive at least
get one guy. If not, you know, then I'm more apt to wait and let the saves kind of fall where they may. I like going late on the choices and the Romanos and the Fairbanks and just maybe get three guys and just kind of have some bodies in there for those two RP spots. You are more of a go get a closer early and you tend to like to lock one in from what I've seen, especially you a little bit more I did the head cats. I'm more of a points fella. Where do you think
is kind of the sweet spot this year? With the pool looking the way it is.
I mean, I think like if you're playing in an NFBC, you're gonna see, like, you know, closures going between the second and third round, you might start seeing you know, there's a class A, he's a hater into the fourth round, So then I think you're gonna see a brunt start pushing around the fifth sixth. I don't need to get the top guys. I really love Andris Munios. That's probably like that top is the bottom of the top tier of the first closure that I want. I think there's
a bunch of value later. Kyle Finigan is still being ranked low. Ryan Presley is still ranked really low in a lot in ADP. He's like two forty right now across an aggregate of ADP. I think there's a lot of late closers, plus guys like AJ puck. I want to get one, but follow the runs, pay attention to the runs. Seven or eight closers go off the board, then start paying attention. That's why I'm going to start targeting a guy like Andres Munos.
But I don't want to.
Be pushed if I have to to be drafting closers in the floor round.
Got a Crochet question here, since we're just talking about him, let's talk about this. Drafting Crochet at twenty two early head to had points of strikeouts are worth a lot. It's not crazy to me, but he is going at thirty six overall, more of a third round ish kind of guy. CARDI, what do you think here? Do you think it would pay to be more aggressive on Crochet or I mean this is almost a whole round ahead early.
It's tough.
I mean, like we said before with with Welsh's bet, like Crochet's talent is elite, Like he's probably a top or three pitcher in baseball. It's just like how deep is he going to you know, how many innings he's going to be able to throw? And pitching in Fenway's not ideal. So twenty's probably a little high for me when you weigh the risk, but I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if he pays that off.
Yeah, it's tough.
It's tough actually comparing against the guy who's going consensus four. I have Garrett Crochet at four in my ranks, but Logan Gilbert is the consensus four guy. And you want to talk about consistency and innings. So you're battling this upside potential down there's a downside to Gare Crochet pitching in Boston, like like Derek said, but then you've got all this upside versus this floor with not I don't
want to say there's not upside. There's still continuous upside with with Gilbert as he continues to change up this repertoire and throwing splitters and stuff like that. But that's the battle that you're dealing with. It's like consistency of Logan Gilbert or upside of Crochet. I did take Crochet in the second round of my tout draft, but it was bigger. It was fifteen team. I think I was
a little bit towards the back. I wanted to make sure I got an sp and a few were coming off of the board, so twenty might be a little bit high, but maybe in reference if like five or six pitchers are already off the board, you know, and maybe he's got a long running you don't want to miss. But I probably am not taking him at twenty to be honest.
Let's get back to some of the wagers. Hero's go back to Derek speaking of Logan Gilbert. Logan Gilbert to lead the league in wins. Now, the Seattle Mariners would serve themselves a little bit better to possibly score some more runs. I want to say, at home last year when they scored three or more runs, they were forty three and seven. Just get them three runs. That's all we're asking for. Let's talk about Logan Gilbert, Derek and what you see ahead for him in twenty twenty five.
Yeah, I like Logan Gilbert's lead to the league of wins at draftkins. You can get it at thirty five to one right now. You look at projections and it's like, okay, why not this number. You look at who the bad is projecting to win games this year. Logan Gilbert projects a virtual tie per second at thirteen thirteen wins. There's a handful of guys there. There's one guy at fourteen wins, and most of those other guys are projected or are priced more at like ten to one.
Thirty five to one.
For Gilbert, I think is great, you know, like you said, the innings are there. He's very efficient, so he can go deep into games, which is always great forgetting wins.
The talent level is elite, but without like the.
Kind of crazy Garrett Crochet stuff that makes you worry about injuries in today's today's kind of environment.
Obviously, any pitcher can get injured. It's not like we can predict it at all.
But you feel a little more comfortable about a guy like Gilbert than you do about a guy like Crochet being able to pitch a full season. And the bat has it sees this year, especially with the Cole News, as like a very a year with a lot of parody, like it only has two teams projected for more than ninety wins. It has the Mariners projected for the fourth most wins in baseball, kind of at the top of that next heap, after the Dodgers and the.
Braves and so so.
Yeah, if you're giving me thirty five to one on logan Gilbert when he's basically projected for the Tide for the second most on average.
Yeah, you're giving me a good number. I'll take it.
Yeah, it certainly does look like a good number. And look with his numbers from last year, they were pretty spectacular. Logan Gilbert was an app rock star stud in fantasy last year and in reality. And look at the intensity on the face that was the same face that Welsh made every Logan Gilbert Stark where he just could not believe how good Logan Gilbert was.
Yeah, the biggest egg on my face too is last year. I mean I remember me and you know we're talking about it's like if you know, if you're gonna rely on this splitter, it was like you want the fastball to be this dominant fastball, and it's just like he just keeps making it happen and those are the questions
and he's a workhorse. I'd say I made this bet like I got this fo a little bit early from Cardi for this show, and I one hundred percent made this bet because also you're just you make the season long bets, you know, depending what you know world you're in, if you're looking to have some fun season long bets. I'm not sure there's one that's more fun than this. Thirty five to one, a guy that's gonna push two hundred innings. You can play to the wins. You're hoping
the offense is going to pick up. And I think I just think there's a great potential return on this, Like if there's gonna if you're gonna make a list of four or five guys that are going to lead the league and wins, I think Gilbert has to be up there. And there's a reason why he's so lauded in fantasy as well this year. So I think this is a great, great pick. This is I mean, if I'm again putting your investment in pitching season long props
is like the scariest thing. Crochet and Gilbert I think are two really really fun ones.
Yeah, let's get to our first super chat here of the day. Taylor only can keep two? Who would you keep? Strider Glass Now McClanahan, franber Valdez, Sandy al Contra de gram or Michael King can keep in hold like in Dynasty. So it's a long time here for one of these. So only can keep two of these guys? Now, look, you're gonna miss Strider for most of this season, Glass now Never.
No, Stryder's only gonna miss April. He should be back in May.
We'll say late May. Let's be good part of the sea. Yeah sure, Glass now Never gives you one hundred and fifty innings. McLanahan just had his arm remade, so it's santy al contra. Those are the two most intriguing ones to me on this list now that they've just been reborn with the new arms. So well, you can only keep two who are the two year keeping.
The context of how this is being asked, if this was like, you can only have two keepers and that's all you're keeping, then my answer would probably lean like a little bit more towards like a redraft standpoint. So then I might be like, well, you know, I might push King into gram but obviously I'm assuming this is a bigger keeper standpoint. I'm gonna go Michael King and Strider be just because like, I know you're gonna miss a month. I don't want to play against what you
can win now. But like Strider could be the number one pitcher in baseball, he's gonna miss a month. If he gets back to where he was, you have a huge showing through the back of the year and you get to keep him next year. And Michael King, I think, is in a great spot if you wanted to knock Michael King off for Shane McClanahan. I also think McClanahan is one of those. But Strider McClanahan puts you in a weird spot where maybe you're a little bit behind early.
But I do think like long, long term, if this was dynasty, pure dynasty, because he says hold like a dynasty.
Yeah, there's no con tractors holding. Got Look, Grom's too old to be captain. He hasn't thrown one hundred and in five years. Like, I'm not not coming close to that. Derek, Where do you land on this one? We've got some different opinions. I'm going with the two guys who have just been fixed. One of us just want to Cy young two years ago, and I think people forget that Sandi al Contra is that good and he's probably gonna be on his way out of Miami sooner than later
to a contending team. Where do you land on this? This is tough. There's a lot of talent here.
Yeah, a lot of talent to pick from.
I think you have to do Strider, I mean not going to miss a ton of time this year could I mean before last year he was being drafted rightfully, so as as the top pitcher in fantasy by like a huge margin, like nobody even touched him projection wise, I think you have to take him, especially if this is long term, and then if it's like a dynasty kind of thing, just give him.
A clean and I'll take the risks.
It's fine. Yeah, all right, here's a fun one, and I mean fun in air quotes Chris Derek Joe. If you had to take a flyer on one of these old farts, he called them aging legends. I'm gonna call them old farts. Who who you got, Verlander or Scherzer, Cardi, Who are you taking a shot on?
I don't mind taking a shot on either where they're being drafted late. Give me Verlander, but it's not a strong Give me Verlander other one.
Welch, how about you? Yeah?
Then Cardi said it really well, because it's like both of them are just free. They're free ninety nine. I'll probably go with you know, justin Fartlander there if you're looking for the old farts, just because of the ballpark factor. I think that's really beneficial. So I'll probably go with Verlander here, but suresher did look pretty good.
All right, We're going to continue to take questions the rest of the day too. I want to get to Welsh's other bet here real fast, so let's go back to Michael tolia of the Colorado Rockies. The home run total is twenty three and a half. Welsh, you like the power of this young man. I assume this is an over for you.
Yeah, this is It's always an over for for me.
Is it the over that's there for the unders? Uh?
Huh exactly. I can't bet too many unders here. Yeah, I mean this one is not as sexy of any of them. And this one falls along the lines of that tough question I kind of had at the top of like, if you're doing a season long bet at minus money, you know what's the play. I know a lot of people have fun and like to pair a couple of these together. I had one of those season long bet. I'm probably going a couple units. I just
really like the Michael Tolian numbers right now. He hit twenty five in twenty twenty four in just one hundred and sixteen games while hitting just too eighteen. And I know that's definitely gonna be like a focal point of what everybody's talking about. I love and again, if you've heard like me talking in videos, I've talked about the value of him. I love the underlying bat profile. He had almost eighteen percent barrel rate. That's elite of elite,
over fifty percent hard hit rate. I mean again, elite of elite. He also had expected batting average close to twenty five points higher than his actual batting average of two forty four. And that's a big thing for me. If Michael Tolia is hitting in the two forties, he's smashing this. He's not getting the twenty five, he's not getting the thirties, probably getting thirty five. He finished last season in the second half of the season with a two thirty five average. Now you do have to watch
like a lot of Colorado. Obviously, the home ballpark is an advantage, and they can have split issues. There's a little bit of a split issue. He hit two thirty five at home last year. He only hit two o two on the road. But check this out. Despite hitting two O two on the road, seventeen of his twenty five homers came on the road, So think about progression coming into this year. Now, projections they tell some different stories. If you look at like Steamer, ATC New Oopsie, they
all have them at twenty five. So they've got him hitting this one Steamer and at twenty four. I'm sorry, Steamer and ATC have him at twenty five. The bat happens to be the one that is lower. The bat and the bat X have him at like twenty two and twenty one, and I think it's around like one hundred and thirty games. But you talk about the offensive profile with that barrel and hard hit, a higher expected batting average, the home ballpark factors, and overall progression. I
really like this number. Maybe it's a little too thin as far as projections are going, but I think the games can come up a little bit. And I also think he's going to overplay the homers. This is what he is built for. And that hitting profile tells you as well. So twenty three and a half I hit. I saw it jumped up on DraftKings before the show at twenty four point five with plus money, So that's
something to pay attention to. And yeah, as Mayer said, one of the biggest worries is the strikeout rate, and that's the thing that holds him back. I mean, a thirty plus percent strikeout rate is a concern, but that's why I'm betting on the hitting profile. Also the ballpark. You know, maybe this would be different. If this is like Seattle, I might not be playing this, but the
home ballpark just plays very well in favor. I really like this on Michael Tolia now, and this is a thirty five plus home run bat when things are going okay, that you're getting ten homers less. So I'm in on Michael Tollia season long home run total twenty three and a half. I'll also play twenty four and a half at plus money.
All Right, Derek Cardy, before we let you go, I got a question for you, because this is my approach and I want to run it by you. For twenty twenty five, I'm betting Showy Otani to win National League MVP, just because well it's clearly an easy path. And then I am going to pair it in a little tiny, you know, duo parlay with different folks from the America League. I got one with Bobby Witt. I've got one with
Aaron Judge just gonna go through some lists. What do you think about that approach this year of just kind of bowing down and giving up on National League MVP and saying, Okay, it's Otani. It's very difficult to beat Otani, especially now he's gonna be pitching again, and then just saying instead of just betting straight out one of those guys in the America League, just constantly pairing him with Otani to get better odds.
I see the appeal of it, and I see being like, Okay, like obviously Otani personally, I don't think the odds you're going to be offered on that are gonna be plus ev but I could be wrong. I mean, I think the books realize, like think Gotan is going to be the MVP. He's probably gonna be the MVP. I don't think they're giving you. I don't think they're giving you the number you need well.
Plus forty five. If I pair them with Bobby Witt right now at this plus two seventy five, I get plus eight hundred. Those are the two top guys of the board. That's a big jump on your guys. Pretty yeah, I mean.
I get it, Like they're both great.
It could easily happen, But to nail both MVPs like that, I would want more than plus eight hundred personally.
Okay, that's fair enough. What would that number be?
One injury in your dead like?
Yeah?
Well, and also o Tany's going to pitch more this year, so that puts a little bit more of a strain on potential misstime. If something were to go wrong, what would you want like twelve to one, thirteen to one if you were doing something like that, do you think that's a better return.
I'd want to run the math on it, but yeah, i'd want.
Something to do something like that.
I got one for you if you didn't like that, Bobby wit one about Jose Ramires with Otani plus five thousand and five thirty five. How about that?
Now you're just having fun.
Hey, Matt, You know, look, I'm the big dog when it comes to these futures, you know it, Welsh And at a certain point I think we have to look and just be reasonable with ourselves and realize that when Otani's on the field, he is the greatest player that any of us have ever seen, will ever seen, probably has ever played in terms of talent and skill overall, and if he's pitching again, it's damn near impossible to beat him for this award. And look, it's plus money
right now. It's not going to get better, most likely barring an injury. Derek Cardy, I wish you a very healthy, entire Major League Baseball season, not just for you, but for all of your teams as well. We appreciate you hanging out with us, obviously. Check out all this amazing work the bat the projections, all the incredible stuff that Derek does, ESPN, Fantasy roto, grinders, analytics, you name it. That'll do it for me. Joey P. We'll see you
next time. Kids. Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast.
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