It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros. Welcome in, everybody to betting pros. It's me Joey p Joe Piezapia, and today we're gonna take a little tour of Tory Pines. That's right, because we've got some golf to talk about today, and we've got another major right on the precipice. And there's nobody better to talk about golf with than my good friend. He's back on the show. He's made time for us, despite moving, despite figuring out his new studio. It's very difficult to be famous, but
somehow he always gets by. And the us open here is going to be broken down by our goodpal, the one, the only, Pat Mayo. Pat, Welcome back to the show, my friend. How are you? How's how's the transitional studio life treating you these days?
I don't like working from my house is the main thing that I figured out when you have two kids running around and my wife just thinks that now that I'm at home, that you know everything, that when I'm at the office, i'm working, And it doesn't feel that way when you work inside your house.
As someone who works inside their house with two kids for their entire career. I can assure you I understand what you're talking about. Mine or older, though you still got the little guys, so a little bit of a different scenario, a lot more needy mineor kind of off on their own doing their things. But someday you'll get there someday. But yes, it's time to get to business,
and you're right. Before I even do this, I just want to it's been a while since we chatted, so I just want to get your take on the Phil Micholson win of the PGA a couple of weeks ago, because that was certainly a crazy story. I don't think anybody saw coming, and I just wanted to kind of
get your feel for it. Was this good for golf in that sense that you got the old standby name brand guy coming out of nowhere and winning that, or was a bad in a way because you know, we're still trying to manufacture stars at the same level of Phil Nicholson.
Coming out of nowhere is never a good thing unless you're the most marketable star who's left in the game that's not named Tiger Woods. But he's not in the game right now. So because it's Phil is actually a great thing for golf. The problem is when you watch the CBS coverage, like they could have been showing like nine or ten guys who weren't necessarily going to win, but like someone like Harry Higgs, for example, one of the most could be marketable players, but no one knows
who he is. He needed to finish inside the top five at the PGA Championship in order to get a secure spot in the Masters next year, a tournament which he has never played and would not qualify for unless he won a tournament or he ended up elevating himself to a certain part of the world rankings, which he just probably isn't going to do. And he did qualify for the Masters, but the broadcast didn't even touch on it. We wanted to see Phil chewing gum walking down the fairway.
I get that's how they've always done it, But when we talk about creating new stars, how didn't feel like the ratings were through the roof because Phil was involved. It was like Tiger at the Masters. Tiger, Oh my god, Tiger's in the lead at the Masters. Everyone is tuning into that, and that becomes the perfect recipe in order to create these new stars, because if it's Brooks running away with it against like Brendan Grace, who was also up on the top of the leader board, like that's
not a ratings drop by any means. Like people are familiar with Brooks, but no one really cares. People cared that Phil was going to win. So what the broadcast could have done was used that spotlight with all these new eyes tuning into the PGA Championship to elevate some of your guys like Patrick Kantley was making a run at it early on, just guys that were moving themselves up the leaderboard that are the future stars of the PGA Tour. They just CBS was like, screw it, we
don't want to give you any pointing time. Sorry.
I think that's a phenomenal point and I think it's a huge miss. By then you're absolutely right, and you know, just for fun, we'll get this out of the way. Phil's anywhere from fifty to seventy to one. Can the old man do it again? I know you're shaking your head. I'm just throwing it out there because people can ask. They're gonna ask me that question when they would do the show, ask Pat if he thinks Phil has one more in him because he's played well this year.
I mean, I didn't think he had one more in him when he won last time, so I know. But the fact that he was three hundred to one to win the PGA Championship was probably an accurate reflection of his odds. The fact that he's between fifty and seventy to one, like there's real players who are between seventy and fifty to one, like Fella should be three hundred to one again.
All right, well, let's get into the US Open here and some of the odds and some of the people that are clearly at the top of those odds, John Rahm, Bryson, des Chambau, Dustin Johnson, kind of usual suspects up at the top. You're getting Rom somewhere around plus ten to fifty, like over on DraftKings, Bryson des Chambeau at plus fifteen hundred, same with Dustin Johnson. There's a few other guys towards
his top. Koepka's up around that area as well. So in your opinion, when you look at the top, if you wanted to go ahead and bet winners, and I know we've talked a lot about throwing different things out there and how to make money doing this. But let's start with the winners. Is there a favorite with this course in your opinion? How it plays for the style of golfer that we have here towards the top of these wagering lines.
Well, it's funny when you think about all the guys and even essentially inside the top ten of the highest odds for the lowest odds players or highest odds players. Yes, that's the proper termin well bombers at us Open style tracks with the way that they have the USGA has set up these courses over the past five years. Just
it's driving distance, driving distance, driving distance. Speak one in twenty fifteen at Chambers Bay, but the next nine guys on the leaderboard, we're all dominating in terms of driving distance. So you have your outliers in speed to someone who can accomplish that, Patrick Reid web Simpson, I think all follow into that category. Is they are good enough justin Thomas even at the same time as well, if they're so well rounded at the other parts of their game
that they can most definitely win. It's just their path. The victory is so much more difficult than the guys at average three twenty five plus off the tee. So I'm just crossing those guys off. The path is too hard for them, especially if one of the Bombers actually plays well, then they're going to win. I don't like ramz Odds, especially coming off with COVID. It's of course where he's one before, obviously, but he's never won a major.
He has one top ten is sorry, two top tens at US Opens, but not a great track record overall, and he is the bet prohibitive betting. Then he dropped down to Dustin who's not playing well. All right, we're going to cross him off because you can only take one or two of these guys at the top if that's how you rant help this week. So it really boils down to three guys for me, Rory, Brooks and Bryson.
Two of those three guys are how you should attack this week on DraftKings where I am playing multiple lineups, all my lineups will probably start with two of those three guys and rotat them through. Obviously, in the betting market, you can't really do that. I've already bet on Brooks at eighteen to one. I just think he is most suited for all US Opens. Just look at his track record at the last three win, win, second. It did
somewhat telling that he thrives under these conditions. He missed the cut last week at the Palmetto Championship, but it had nothing to do with his driving or his irons. He couldn't chip or putt, usually a sign of Brooks not caring how he finishes in a tournament. So realistically, just better news. He didn't have to stick around the weekend.
He got over to San Diego. He's acclimated with the time zone, he can get some reps in up the course, and he's striking the ball as well as anyone right now. And when he decides to show up. He was injured at the MAP. I was on him then, and then it caused me not to take him at the PGA Championship, where he came second place. But just look at how he's done. PGA Championship second, the WGC at Concession earlier this year, second place, Phoenix earlier this year, first place.
When he decides to show up, he is a legitimate threat to win every single time. And he is the fifth or sixth in the betting market right now. So Brooks is most definitely on the list in terms of betting, so that leads me between Rory and Bryson. Now, normally I would just say Bryson, Let's go with Bryson, but Rory's numbers down in the twenties, and I just maybe it's too big of a trap for me to fall into. I think Bryson is the safer play. I think Bryson
has more win equity. But if they're separated by four points in terms of the betting market, from like sixteen hundred to from sixteen hundred to two thousand, I mean those four points are a lot. With the amount that you have to bet on guys at the very top of the boar, Like it's not the same as someone
being sixty six to one to seventy to one. The amount of your wager just isn't that high at sixty to one and seventy seven to one and things like that versus sixteen to twenty to one like that, that's a big boy wager if you're gonna go in on them, especially if you're gonna take two guys from the very top,
so you need to trim it down. It's gonna be Brooks for sure for me in the betting market and probably gonna end up being Bryson, you can find them as deep as nineteen to one in some spots, and that's probably the magic number for me with Bryson, because I think, like Brooks, he is very well tailored to take on Tory Pines and this complete rough and narrow fairway setup.
And if you are looking for the best odds and some of the golfers that Pat sockoo, make sure you head over to Betting Pros and get the app as well, and you can see the different betting houses where you can get those best odds. So if those are the favorite guys, we're the ones that might be the long shots that might be fun to throw some chips on.
Is it some young guys like Victor Howland who seems like a very well liked fellow these days, or is there some other young golfers that might really, you know, kind of take advantage of the moment here. Maybe they do hit those big long drives you're talking about that are the difference maker in this specific tournament, that might be able to kind of carve out a niche and if they have a good first day or two all of a sudden they start to get a little bit momentum going into the weekend.
I think that that entire like twenty to forty, twenty to one to forty to one tier is very live to win this tournament. The issue is with how I've structured my betting card. If I'm going with Brooks and one of Rory and Bryce, and I can't afford to have any of these guys. You can't just spend all the favorites then even if they lose money, And people don't seem to realize that when you structure a betting
card for a golf event. It's not like football. These guys pay pretty deep odds in order to win, but you don't want to overload yourself at the top. So Xander can't lay hovelin few Burger. They're all in this range. They're all more than capable of winning this event. They will not be making my betting sheet because I've gone with two guys around twenty to one, I need to go down the list. The Shane Lowry at eighty to one is actually the next guy on my betting card.
We've seen him win an Open championship, so he has that major experience. He's won most of his events in his career, whether it be in America or overseas, at long, difficult courses. He just led the PGA Championship and strokes gained off the tee. He's magic around the greens. The butter you know that comes and goes. That's why he's eighty to one. But his irons right now are firing at the best rate of his career on a consistent basis, even better than he won the British Open two years ago.
So I look at himy as three top tens in his past four starts. This is the sort of lead in form that he had when he won over in Northern Ireland two years ago. I think that eighty to one is just too big of a number for a guy of this class.
All right, So pivoting off of the winners, and obviously that is a much harder thing to do. Let's talk about finishing. Let's talk about top twenty, top thirties. That's something you tend to put any investment into whill you see opportunities where all of a sudden, maybe you see somebody a good golfer that you really like, that you think, you know what they might play better than you think in this one. Maybe you can make some plus money on there. Because there's certainly like even on DK where
you're talking about too. We just talked about Hovlin being a plus one ten to finish in the top twenty. The Shane Lowry is at plus one thirty five hatt and at plus one thirty eight. So there's a lot of you know, folks around there in that range where maybe it's a little simpler, maybe less less dangerous in terms of well, it's all or nothing, but maybe you just get somebody that you think is going to play well enough to finish at the top twenty or thirty.
Is that a viable wager for folks who maybe you don't want to put all their eggs into a winner basket.
I mean, it's cowardly way to play.
What do you really think, Pat, No, I'll just kid put threw it out there because that I think people look at that board and they go, oh, it's so hard to pick out the one winner. Maybe I do that, but I want to hedge and have some more skin in the game too and do some other things too, and that might be a way to maybe make back some of the money potentially too.
I listen, I'm not opposed to top twenties or top tens. I do play them almost every single week, but I played them with long shots. I'm not looking to bet. Like if Victor Hobblin's twenty five to one to win, there's really no value in his top twenty plus one twenty five like right as, you're basically better if you put a big number down. Well, yeah, you have to put a big It's you're essentially betting on a football game at that point, and that's not what I do.
That's not how I like to bet on golf. If I'm going to be looking at let's say I'm looking at the top thirty market right now, what I prefer to do. But me being in Canada a lot different than being in the United States, and we have I mean in Britain it's even better, but we have placement wagers. So for example, like I play a lot of each way betting on long shots. So there's a bunch of guys down the board that I really like this week, and it's essentially trying to grab their top eight. So
that's the placement that's offered. So if I was to bet twenty dollars on Let's say Taylor Pendrith, who I really like this week. He's five hundred to one to
win this event. So if I bet twenty dollars on him with the each way, what that means is that ten dollars would be allocated towards the five hundred to one if he won, and then another ten dollars would be allocated towards his top eight, which is one fifth of the odds of the five hundred, so it would be one hundred to one for him to come inside the top eight. Now, the reason that I do that is because I want to look at his top ten odds, and his top ten odds are thirty three to one.
So essentially I'm losing two placement points but gaining over triple the odds in terms of what it actually pays out. Plus I still have the upside of him winning, which he's not going to win, but he could finish seventh or something like that out of the realm. So that's why I structure my bets that way. I think that there's just more value to spread up your money instead of putting twenty dollars on the thirty three to one
to win six hundred. If I go ten and ten, I mean, if my guy wins, I win five thousand bucks. If becomes inside the top eight, I win five hundred bucks. So that's a better way for me to structure, at least in my mind. That's what I'm telling myself is the way that I want to approach this, because I do like that upside Listen, I'm betting on golf for huge payouts. If I can hit a five hundred to one winner, it can happen in golf. It's unlike any other sports in that way. So there's a bunch of
guys down the list. If you just want to play top tens or top twenties on them, I don't mind that, But I don't want to take a favorite at a top twenty, because then you're just betting even money. You're basically betting on a coin flip in terms of OZ and it's probably not even that good, especially at a course as difficult as Tory Pines in a tournament set up as difficult as the US Open. So if you're looking down the list, I would recommend Matt Wallace and
I have outright wagers on all these guys. So Matt Wallace at one hundred and fifty to one, Taylor Pendrith at five hundred to one, wyndhom Clark at seven hundred and fifty to one, and Cameron Young at three hundred to one are probably my four favorite guys from beyond one hundred to one in the outright market. Now, if you want to play a top thirty on them, a top twenty, bet them outright, you can deal with that with what you want. I played the outright win with
the each way in the top eight finishing places. On one of those guys finishes inside the top eight, I'm gonna make a lot of money this week, even if I lose every other bet.
Now, talk to me about some of the other possible wagers too. We've got, obviously the groups you've got, you know, there's so many things now you can literally wager on everything. But you've got different setups where you've got tournament props, you've got make miss cut, you've got all kinds of
things you can get in on. What else, Even for the novice wager going out there this weekend and looking at this tournament, do you think is a good path where you say, you know what this particular prop or this particular wager kind of makes sense to me with this player that you actually are high on as well that you would advise, or is this something where you stay away just focus on some of the things that you talked about, which is, hey, it's a big, all
or nothing kind of thing. That's the nature of the game.
I tend to be all or nothing type of better when it comes to golf because when I win, I went really big, and when I lose, I get wiped out for the week. That's just the game that I like to play. If you want to head yourself and you know you have one hundred dollars to invest, do I invest a little bit here, invest a little bit there. That's a perfectly reasonable way to go about it. It's just not the strategy that I end up taking. So if you were like looking at props, most of them
like aren't lined properly. And I hate to throw shade it. You know, my favorite sports book in the world, drafting sports book. But I'm seeing Taylor Pendrith right now at plus four fifty to be top Canadian. I bet him at plus eight hundred at another place yesterday and that number is still hanging out there, so you shopping around finding the best value. I think that's an actual value bet, like Corey Connors in terms of the top Canadian market, is like minus one twenty or even minus one fifty
at some spots. And the way that you need to think about is this is technically a four ball. It's one guy versus three other guys. And you'll see three balls get launched every single day and almost no one is ever a minus one fifty. And now he has to be three other people. He is not. He's better than these guys, but he's not significantly better to be a minus money favorite against three other players. I just
see Pendrith. No one knows who he is. He plays on the corn Ferry Tour, but he is a massive bomber. He is. He has great touch around the greens and he's pretty good putters. Irons are absolutely horrible. But he's played in two US Opens in his life, the last two he's made the cut in both. That's better than all the other Canadians, So why not.
I love it. I love that you could bet guys from the countries too. It's just a fun thing to do, all right. So if that is the wagering side of things. Let's switch gears a little bit and just touch on real quick the DFS world of golf. And you have really taken us through, I know last time you were on a few weeks back, you really kind of took us to your thought process on that and how you
approach that and the reasons why. So now with the mix of golfers this specific course, the way you've laid it out, what does the roster construction, if you will, look like in your mind that you think these guys are good investments at the number they're at.
Essentially, what I did was go to Fantasy National dot Com and I created my custom model within the site system. By the way, Fantasy National dot Com slash Mayo for twenty percent off. Go try it out.
If you go try that, Pat Mayo's giving you free coupons, guys, go get it.
Listen, you get a weekly membership to Fantasy National with the discount at seven bucks, you're probably gonna play far more than that and draftings, lineups or betting this week, so you might a lot the best tools available to help you out. So I just put in the inputs that I wanted, massively putting on driving distance with a bit of approach, a bit of putting, a bit of around the green, but really waiting driving distance, and just
went to the top and see who I wanted to get. Now, the very top players in the world, I mean Speeth excluded, but you have rom DJ Bryson, Rory and Brooks. They all mash it off the tee. Xander does as well. Justin Thomas is a little bit behind him, so it is more a Kawa. He's more of a fairway finder than anything else. But I just decided Rory, Bryson and Brooks are the best values. They're the best price of those very top guys, so I'm just going to mix
and match with them. Where it really did help me was down the list. That's how I end up on Pendrith, So I ended up on Wyndham Clark, and how I ended up on Cameron Young, another guy coming out from the corn Ferry Tours. Won twice on the corn Ferry Tour in the past month. Most people just don't know that, and they're just out in the six thousand dollars area, and you have to think about the construct of this tournament. Is the hardest cutting golf to make there's one hundred
and fifty six players in this tournament. Only the top sixty in ties are going to play the weekend. So if you can squeeze a six of six through with your very top end guys, and what have we seen at the US Open outside of Gary Woodland who fits the bomber mold is not the elite bomber mold. It's been Brooks, it's been Bryson, it's been Speef, it's been all of the best players who end up winning. So the more best players you can jam into a lineup if you feel good at the very bottom end, is
the approach that I want to take. I think you're going to see a lot of people play as balanced of a lineup as possible, and that could be the right path this week. You could be looking at a situation where you start your teams with Xander at ninety three hundred dollars and take Can't Light and take Feena and load up with guys in the high sevens or the mid eights, and that's just the way you roll
it out. I think I'm going to be a bit more risky this week and go with two of my studs in the ten thousand dollars Range or Rory at nine to nine, drop to Coke Racker Lowry in the mid sevens and then take two guys in the sixes and see what I'm left over and try to construct a lineup that way.
There you have it. He is the one, the only Pat Mayo you fall him on Twitter at dpme's the host of the Pat Mayo Experience, and it's always a great experience to have Pat Mayo on the show. Pat, What's going on with you?
Right now?
We have cooking over at the Experience.
Every day golf for now and then it quickly transitions back over into football. Start Thursday, so Ceely and I are going to be talking about the AFC West player by player breakdown for fantasy for the upcoming season, plus all the future odds on the teams. We've already done NFC East, AFC East and NFC West, so we're getting
through all the divisions. I also have if you check out my Twitter right now at the PME, I have giveaways for fifty Millionaire Maker tickets this week, so you probably want to jump onto mass That expires Wednesday at noon Eastern. I am also doing a live chat at noon Eastern time on Mayo Media Networks YouTube page if you do have fantasy golf questions for the US Open, and I'm giving away some scott Fishbowl entries too, so
you can check out my Twitter for that. If you're keen on competing in the scott Fishbowl this.
Year, well I will be there. I will be part of the scott Fishball. I am every year, and hopefully we'll get to talk some NFL. I was love coming on with you. I think last time it was Meani, myself and you just having a crazy few hours of what we'd record like four shows I think in one day. I think something like that, so you could go on vacation.
Right, is that is the Pat? It always seems like I am in the two shows every single day, but some days I sit there and record four in one day, so I can take four days to do well anytime.
Baby. It's always a pleasure. And thank you for enlightening us with all the great content on the golf side today. Hope everybody enjoys the US Opening. Like Pat said, go over and follow him and go get some free stuff and use that code he talked about as well in the site. Again at the PM's where you get all the information from Pat. Hit him up on Twitter too. He's always a great follow, not just for golf, but
obviously for all the sports that he covers. You are a good follow in terms of content because you put out quality. Everybody has to have these stupid questions all the time, what do you think is gonna be the best? Like it's such Twitter fodder, like please make the algorithm go up some more people follow me? No, I need people like you. Put out great content and then step away and go to lunch. That's what you do, and I appreciate it.
I mean I didn't even do that, scheduled tweets for three days in advance and walk essentially a account.
But again, when the content drops, it's good. So if you give me good content, who cares?
You know? I answer people's questions to you, do you do? I do well? Well.
I Again, we don't want to set the standard too high. We don't want to get ahead of ourselves. So that's Pat Mayo. Everybody, enjoy the golf this weekend. We'll be back again next time. We were betting pros. I want to remind you to go over and download that app for betting pros and head tobttingpros dot com, so you get all of those consensus lines when you're looking at all the stuff for this weekend's action. That'll do it for me. We'll be back again next time. We'll see that cot kids