Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place your bets. This meet Joey P joe P Zapia and it's time to look ahead to week eight in the NFL. See if there's some early values on the lines. By Apocalypse is past us and everybody's playing this week. We've got a full slate of games. Should be good times. It's always good times with Sam Hoppin and Pat fitz Morris join me here on the show. Gentlemen, let's just jump right into it because we've got a ton of
games to go through today. And don't forget everybody. If you want a chance to win that Robert Tunyan jersey, make sure you drop a comment below, make sure you subscribe to the Betting Pros YouTube channel, and that's all you got to do to win again. We're always giving away free stuff here. We love you people, So go win this jersey. Go give it to Pat fitz Morris. I'm telling you, Christmas present such a beautiful thing. I'll
pay for the shipping myself. I will do it. And don't forget to click that little beltile coos ding for notification so you know if you are the big winner as well. We gotta start with Thursday night football. Short week here underway for the Buffalo Bills, which is a good thing. They don't have time to dwell on the loss to the New England Patriots. Yeah, that's right, said it a lost to the New England Patriots. The number
for this game is forty two and a half. So far, it looks like Buffalo is seven point favorites, no doubt they're that number. You can get a dk the over under right now at FanDuel if you like Tampa for the upset. It's plus three fifteen on the money line. Pat,
let's start with you with this one. Does Buffalo just kind of put their head down, get back to work and beat up on a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that, like frankly, watching Baker Mayfield throw completely into double coverage all day long, it's a very dangerous sign of things to come if that continues.
Yeah, and Baker Mayfield talked about, you know, big comeback after their disappointing performance against the Lions in Week six and then maybe even a more disappointing performance against a worst opponent, the Falcons in Week seven.
But I actually do lean.
Towards the Buccaneers here, Like, going into that loss to the Falcons, the Buccaneers were seventeenth and the Massy Peabody Power ratings and fifteenth in total DVOA.
So this is not a terrible team.
Granted they had a really disappointing performance against the Falcons, but this Bill's offense has struggled to put points on the board two straight weeks against the Giants and against.
Your Patriots shoe.
So like, I don't want to lay a touchdown with the Bills to a decent team, even at home. Like, yeah, they could go come in and blow out, blow out, the Buccaneers blow their doors off.
But man, I'll take the touchdown.
Here, all right? Taking the touchdown? Sam, When you look at this line, anything feel off to you, any early value you might want to jump on.
I agree with fitz here. I think with the lower total and the full seven and a half points you can get with Tampa Bay, I'd be taking that. I'm number looking for a reason to back Baker Mayfield. But the Bills defense has struggled lately. Last week against the Patriots, they allowed their highest success rate in high stp or play in a game against a struggling New England offense upflow pass rush has been good. We've seen them be
able to get to the quarterback even without blitzing. But Tampa Bay right now is the only team to have had the same five starting players at o line for every single snap this season. So I think that continuity will help them and we'll be able to keep them within a touchdown.
On Thursday night, the Los Angeles Rams are coming off a loss at home to the Pittsburgh Steelers. They're going to travel to the Cowboys coming fresh off thereby. The number for this one is forty five. It feels about right. Dallas six and a half point favorites, all these numbers coming from FanDuel plus two forty on the money line here for the Rams in the potential upset Sam. The
Cowboys have been a bit of an enigma. They got their w a eaked one out there against the Chargers, much of the chagrin of that lady in the stands. But can they keep it rolling here and get two in a row. Do you think the six and a half is giving the Cowboys too much credit?
I don't think it's giving them too much credit. I've made this Dallas by six points I think this number is pretty close to spot and I don't see a ton of value right now. The Rams have cooled off a bit from their hot start. They don't have a game with an offensive success rate over fifty percent since that Week one game against the Seahawks. So I think the Rams are starting to become what people expected heading
into the season. They're staying competitive in games, but they just don't have the full firepower on offense and the defense to be able to keep them in games. So I think this number spot on right now. Don't see a ton of value, but do think Dallas comes away.
With the win.
Pat to six and a half to me is giving the Cowboys just to hair too much credit. And I know the Rams struggled a little bit, you know last game against Pittsburgh. There maybe a wake up call Daryl Henderson, Royce Freeman we talked about on the Waiver Wire show and fantasy pros picking up the slack in that backfield. They's had a ton of injuries. With a little bit more pract time and cohesion, can the Rams get back on track and cover the six and a half.
Yeah, I feel sort of pulled back and forth between something you just said Joe and something Sam just said. It does feel like it's giving the Cowboys too much credit to go up to six and a half in this game. But Sam made the point that the Rams have maybe reverted to being the team that we thought
they were going to be coming into the season. The Rams are sort of in the class of the Arizona Cardinals in that category teams that the first three weeks of the season we were surprised at how plucky they were and how competitive they were, and maybe in the three or four weeks since then they have become more of the tomato can that we thought they were going to be early in the season. So yeah, I'm kind of torn here. I don't see any value in this. I'm probably just going to stay away.
I'm a little bit on the Rams side right now. I think the six and a half is really interesting. I don't want to watch this one though, because Cowboys are a very public team. If people start betting them up a little bit, maybe this number gets a little bit more, if it gets a little higher than I'm really on the Rams. I think the Cooper Cup, Phuk and Akua think could that combination could cause some problems there, Potentially for the Cowboys. Remember Trevon Diggs out for the year.
That's been a big loss. Has really showed itself in a lot of these games. Gilmour not quite the same player he was a few years ago. The Houston Texans three and three. They're coming off of buye. So are the Carolina Panthers. Still winless on the season. Things are not going well for the Panthers so far this year. Right now, the Houston Texans are three point favorites in this game. They are one fifty five on the money line, those numbers at Draft Kings. The total is forty one
and a half. FITZI, I jumped on this one already, and I jumped on the Houston side at the minus three. I am really liking the culture shift, that change, the positivity that's going on there. This is the battle of the number one and two quarterback. Take it in the draft. I know a lot of people are gonna write and talk about that this week, But only one of those two quarterbacks has looked really comfortable in the NFL so far, and that guy is CJ. Stroud. He plays for the Texans.
Yeah, a lot of good vibes around the Texans right now. And how far along they seem to be with their rebuild. And you know, clearly, I think if the Panthers could have a do over on the NFL Draft, they would probably choose CJ.
Stroud and not Bryce Young.
The Texans have clearly been the better team, but if you do look at the Massy Peabody rankings in this it says that the Texans are about two and a half points better on a neutral field. This game is going to be a home game for the Panthers and the Texans are favored by three, So that suggests maybe there's a little bit of value on the Panthers as a home dog here.
So I don't know if I can buy that.
I'm with you, Joe, Like, the Texans have been surprisingly good this season, but I just don't think there's enough value to bet them as a three point dog in Carolina.
All Right, Look, I understand home dogs are something we always look for, but Sam, the Carolina Panthers have had real struggles trying to get out of their own way, and the Houston Texans, like, the Texans show up there, and they've showed up on the road too, which is something you know, sometimes these young teams tend to struggle with It's one thing to play good at home, good football at home. It's another thing to play good football
on the road. But the Texans have done that. So what do you think about this line?
I'm with you, Joe. I think the Texans minus three here is an awesome spot. I two took them this morning. The Carolina defenses is not great. They're getting a little bit healthier, but the Houston offensive line is getting healthier as well. The Houston offense ranks sixth in passing EPA for play, fourth and explosive pass rate. I don't think Carolina has anyone that's going to be able to slow
them down. I think Houston has the coaching advantage as well, with Demko Ryans making that culture shift like you mentioned, and Bobby Slow on offense to you know, putting c. J. Stroud in some great opportunities to perform. So I love the Texans here. I think with both of them coming off the buy, they'll have plenty of tact to bear. Houston comes away.
With the victory.
Remember, if you're looking for early value, make sure you go make your picks over on the betting pros app get the best odds you possibly can and make those picks count for a little bit more with our NFL contest because we still got that rolling. So Sam and I aren know the Texans already, we want to know
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already of Jordan Love. It's over for me Christian Watson coming out with that injury at the end of the game. I immediately jumped on Minnesota in this one plus one and a half. You can even get this again. That's at minus one fifteen off FanDuel. I bet the Minnesota Vikings at minus one z two, just outright to win this game, because I feel like if they put on a decent show tonight, this number might even shift a
little bit, maybe towards the Minnesota side some more. Forty three and a half is the number, so personal aside all business here. The Vikings have brought their A game to Green Bay of late in the last few years.
Sam.
I know they don't have Justin Jefferson, but frankly, right now, my faith in Jordan Love and this Packers offense is really low. So I like Minni and I like him. Right now, what do you think, Sam.
Joe, you and I are some patiko this morning?
It seems because I mean, first of all, this is the bummer bull. I mean, both of these teams are trending in the wrong direction. Green Bay essentially just gets home field advantage here. Vegas seemingly makes it that these are some even teams on an even field. But I think the Vikings offense is the best unit here. Green Bay's offense did have one of its better days offensively.
It was the first time since Week two with a positive EPA per play against Denver, but again, they were playing one of the worst defenses in the league and still only managed seventeen points, and seven of those points came off of a tip drill touchdown. So I think Minnesota is able to come into Green Bay, much to my chagrin, and pull away an upset victory.
Looking right now, gentlemen, even this morning, right now, on bet MGM, you can get the Minnesota Vikings at plus money plus one oh five. The worms turning fits. What do you say you want to come with me? And Sam? Hold hands on the Island together.
I'm so rattled by this heel turn by Sam Hopp and ripping off the mask to reveal purple face paints very disheartening.
Yeah, I mean the Vikings. We're gonna see this.
Line undoubtedly move based on how the Vikings play against the forty nine ers, But a couple of weeks ago, in their first game without Justin Jefferson, they did not look very good against a suspect Chicago Bears defense like that was a pretty alarming performance. So there are two
offenses here I don't really trust. I mean, it's certainly hard to trust the Packers, especially if they're going to be without Christian Watson and their rookie tight end Luke Musgrave, both of whom left the Broncos game with injuries and whose status is probably very much in doubt for this game. But I just cannot take the Vikings as in a row game unless I'm getting at least a field goal.
So I'm just it's a stay away for me.
You know, I'm not going to blindly bet the Packers in this one. Yeah, I can't have much faith in this team based on what we've seen from this offense. Like you said that performance against the terrible Broncos defense was most upsetting.
I'm all in all on the Vikings this in the Texans. My two favorite plays that I said already. Bet you can follow me at petting pros dot COM's last Joe follow Them Slash fits, slash slam. See what those guys are in on already. But I'm jumping on this bad boy early now. One that it's tough to get a beat on here the Battle of New York or New Jersey,
depending on how you look at it. The New York Jets are going to travel to their own building to take on the New York Giants, so split home field advantage. However you want to look at this, Technically it's a Giants home game, so theoretically more Giants fans in the stands, you think probably the Giants are three point underdogs in this. One thirty six and a half is the number if you like the Giants on the money lines plus one thirty six on DK that's the best number you can
get right now. Fits the last two weeks. The Giants defense is really woken up. They're getting after the quarterback. A bunch of sacks against Sam Howe last week I know the Commanders give up a lot of sacks, but Zach Wilson also won sometimes to take some sacks to you holding the ball too long. He has played better of late. This game is a bit of an enigma to me. So I'm gonna look at you Fits for a little inside because I don't have a beat on
this one yet. But do you see any early value when it comes to Jets Giants?
Yeah? Interesting, Joe.
Some of the games that are stay aways for me, you feel very strongly about. I feel strongly about this game where it's a stay away from you.
I'll take the Jets here.
And while the Giants defense has played much better in the last few weeks, the Jets defense is clearly the best unit in this.
Game, far and away.
And I just I don't think the Giants are going to have much success moving the ball against this Jets defense.
And I think with.
Breist Hall and Garrett Wilson helping out Zach Wilson, I think the Jets are going to be able to ratch out enough points to cover in this one. I've already bet it with the Jets, and I'm kind of interested in the under here. This reminds me a little bit of my under bet on the Minnesota Golden Gophers Iowa Hawkeye's game this Sunday or this Saturday, which went off
at thirty and a half points. I looked at that number and thought, I don't know if these teams are getting at twenty and it comfortably finished under I think this one might comfortably finish under this very low total. This is going to be not the most esthetically pleasing game you will ever watch in the NFL, but I think the Jets win a low scoring battle here and pretty comfortably.
I agree with you on that one fits. The one appealing number to me is the under here, even though it's a low number. Sam, can you buy in on that or do you have a strong feeling about this game one way or another?
It is hilarious because the first note I have written under my bullet points here is this is like Iowa Minnesota with these this is super low total. Yeah, the Jets defense here is definitely the best unit. The Giants are expected to get left tackle Andrew Thomas Beck, which should help a little bit. And I think at this point i'd probably want Tyrod Taylor to play for the Giants. I think he has a little less variability in his
play than Daniel Jones. The Giants have put up two of their best offensive performances from an EPA per play perspective in the past two weeks with Tyrod, so it'll be interesting to see what happens at the quarterback position for the Giants. I've gone a little bit of back and forth on this. I think I would take the Jets if it's three points or better, but it is it is, I think going to be a very very
close game. I'm probably staying away for right now. But the I mean, yeah, nothing really inspires much confidence in these offenses. And I mean, when you've got a third six favor you can't not bet the under right.
I feel like, like thirty six and a half, I think now is a good time to jump on that because I think the more people time to marinate and go through these matchups. The defense, like I said, the
defensive Giants have played very well. Fits mentioned that the just defense the best union of all four of these on the field, it feels like an under here and if this number starts to shrink, then next thing you know, it's going to be a tougher one to make New England Patriots coming off a big upset of the Buffalo Bills, much to my chagrin. I want a high draft pick, that's all I want. I want them to not screw up taking Marvin Harrison Junior. That's all I want. For Christmas.
Miami Dolphins are gonna host the New England Patriots. The Dolphins are ten and a half point favorites in this one minus one oh five over on Fandle forty seven and a half is the number there as well. For New England to upset, it's plus four to ten. Sam. I know the Patriots, you know, shocked a lot of people yesterday. I want to say that Buffalo is four minus four hundred. I think favorites in this one very
heavily favorite. Let's just put it to that New England goes here as an underdog as they should be here. Miami kind of have some calls go their way last night, but also didn't make enough plays at the end of the day. So what are your thoughts on Miami New England? Is this number two big?
I think it is a little too big.
I made this Miami by seven and a half, and obviously at minus ten that would indicate that I'm on the New England side of things. When these teams met in Week two, Miami won by a touchdown. They were only favored by a point and a half, but this was obviously before their massive offensive explosion against the Broncos. I do think that this the under here is probably my strongest lean. New England's defense, I still think is pretty good and that they have a chance to contain
the Miami offense like they did in Week two. Miami's two losses this year have come to the Bills and the Eagles, who are two of the better teams in the league, and they pretty much handled their business against their weaker opponents. So I'm staying away from this right now. Aside from the under, I think this is going to be a game in which both teams might struggle to put up some points.
I feel like Pat the danger in this game is trying to take anything out of that first matchup. The first matchup was closer than I think that some people realize, so I think that's going to have almost too much of an impact on people's thoughts. It's creeping into your psyche too, when you're looking at this line.
Yeah, a little bit Joe like I'm not going to touch this game. We didn't think the Patriots could beat the Bills outright, and yet they did.
So.
Yes, Miami could certainly stop the gas pedal on this one and beat the Patriots by three or four touchdowns, like if they have it hitting on all cylinders offensively. But man, I'm just not interested in laying double digit points to Bill Belichick team, And like I don't want to give Bill Belichick too much credit. The Patriots have been pretty bad for the most part this year, but nor am I in interested in in betting the Patriots
against these Dolphins. So this is just one I'm happy to walk away from.
Fair enough, that makes a lot of sense. I think this from an individual standpoint, a player prop standpoint, a far more interesting game to wager on than the game itself. However, the next one, this should be interesting. The Tennessee Titans coming off of bye. Most likely, I would say that we're gonna have Malik Willis playing quarterback here. Now this number starts out at thirty seven. I'm in on the under here as Atlanta comes to town. I know Atlanta's
four and three, but they've struggled on offense lately. Desmond Ritter has had his issues here be Jhon Robinson clearly had issues enough that he couldn't even get on the field. The Falcons are minus one point favorites at minus one ten over on DK. If you like Tennessee for the upset at home, it's plus one oh five over at points bet fits. Again, this one reeks of under to me, and I really it's kind of a tough sell for
me to get off of that right now. And I'm also concerned that if I don't jump on this number early, it's going to also shrink on me. What do you think?
I'm with you, Joe, another game where the total is very low but the under is crying out because Yeah, I mean, like with Ryan Tannehill, this would be different. I think we'd see another point or two added to the total and another point.
Or two added to the Titans.
I think the Titans would probably be one or two point favorites in this game if Ryan Tannehill were playing. I understand why the Falcons are favored. Like Malik Willis and the Titans offense could have a lot of trouble moving the ball against a really underrated Falcons defense, and the Falcons has been. These are two terrific run defenses in this game and two offenses that want to run
the ball. So like, I see this as being a very sluggishly paced game, Joe, another one where I don't know if we're going to get to thirty points, let alone what thirty seven and a half or whatever it's at right now?
With you on the under I am there, Sam, you want to come hang out with us here? This feels like thirteen to ten to me? What do you think.
It very well could be? I mean, if we are going to get Malik Willis, he has struggled in every game that's he's played so far. I do like the Falcon side of this. Their defense has been pretty pretty good so far. Their eighth in passing success rate six excuse me seventh and explosive pass rate first in rushing EPA per play, so they've been able to hold their
opponents pretty well. And I do think, you know, though Desmond Ritter has not been phenomenal this year, he's going to be better than whoever Tennessee trots out a quarterback, assuming it's not Ryan Tannehill. So I'm I lean stronger on the Falcon side of this than the under. But again to you guys point, the Titans are second slowest in the league in terms of neutral script and third worst in no auto rates, So there's not going to be a lot of offense in this game, as the under suggests.
But like the Falcons in the spot.
The last time the Washington Commanders went to Philadelphia to play, the Eagles got a lot closer than I think any of us really expected it to be. Again another danger I think of trying to copy and paste what happened a few weeks ago into what could happen in Week eight. Washington is six and a half point underdogs at home at Mice won ten. Always intriguing, but again they're giving up so many sacks here, averaging over three and a
half per game. Sam, that's a lot, and especially with the young quarterback who sometimes tried to do too much, and there should have been some more picks for Sam how yesterday in that game against the Giants that he barely got away with. Forty four is the number four this one on the under, forty three and a half on DK and if you like Washington for the upsets plus two thirty on the money line. The Eagles went out there, handled their business against an incredible offense last
night Miami. I think this was a good confidence builder for the Eagles who have been scuffling a little bit. Does that confidence travel to Washington and do they cover the six and a half? Sam?
I think it does.
The way that Sam Howell is taking sacks is just it's not sustainable for having that offense. I mean, I know you mentioned that the Giants defense has been playing better, but man, they only got seven points against them and just could not move the ball. They're they're taking sacks that are are drive killers, and I think Philadelphia again has started to show what they really can't do offensively. The Washington defense is by no means as good as
we expected them coming into the season. They're currently twenty seventh in EPA per played aloud, twenty eighth in early down EPA per played allowed. So I think Philadelphia goes into Washington, handles their business and covers this six and a half.
All right, Pat, thoughts on this one? Two? Are you so confident in the Eagles? Maybe you want to go past the six and a half. Do you want to go ahead and just look for some defensive props here on some sacks because I know Bodmin and I are going to be on that this week for sure. Yeah.
I mean, you've got the team that chased the NFL single season sack record last year, going up against a quarterback who has been sacked forty times already.
He has Son Reddick, I can handle Pat.
Oh my goodness, where is it?
Justin Fields was the most sacked NFL quarterback of twenty twenty two with fifty five sacks. I mean, Sam Howll is just fifteen behind that. We're not even in the midway point of the.
Season yet that's suppressing.
Oh my goodness.
So yeah, the Commanders did manage to take the Eagles to overtime in Week four before losing thirty four to thirty one.
And Howell played probably his best game in that game.
Like he was really good in the second half in the comeback against the Broncos, but not so great in the first half of that game. He played a pretty complete game against the Eagles. I don't think he's going to be able to do it again. Like, and I want to grab this while it's still under a touchdown.
Yeah, give me the Eagles here.
The New Orleans Saints with a little extra time after playing on Thursday night, they made it close, but they fell short, unfortunately, at every opportunity to win that game. Sort of the Colts this weekend, who came up short as well. Some might say the referee screwed them out on a ball that was probably unketchable, and they'd be right in my opinion. The Colts are one point favorites at homes, so basically this is a pick him at
this point. Forty three and a half is the number on DraftKings plus one h two over on DK for the New Orleans Saints' side. The best value on this board right now is the Saints at that plus number. But Fitz, this is another one too where this reeks of range of outcomes and there could be easily four of them where one side blows the other out, or it's a very high scoring affair, were very underwhelming affair. These are the kind of games that scare the hell
out of me because they're hard to invest in. So I would just look for the specific player props in this one, I'd stay away from the lines. But do you see something differently here?
I could not agree more with your assessment of that, Joe, And if you took all the thirty two NFL teams.
I think the two that I have bet.
Least successfully this year so far would be the Colts and the Saints, so I'm delighted they're playing each other. I can just completely ignore this game from a betting perspective and focus on the other fifteen games on the slate. So yeah, I'll pass. Maybe Sam's got a strong take on this one. I'd love to hear it. I'm i way to touch this game.
I'm waiting with baited breath. Sam, do you have anything fun here that might crack us out of our duldrums when it comes to these two teams because I'm with fits on a weekly basis. I stare at the Saints. I stare at the Colts, especially the Colts without Anthony Richardson. I find it much harder to gauge that because that
explosiveness is gone now. I mean, maybe Jonathan Taylor brings a part of it back, but Richardson brought that explosiveness where I always felt like, ooh, the overs really tempting here because he makes those big plays and all of a sudden puts you in positions those third and longs, the third and fifteen becomes a first down. That stuff doesn't happen necessarily with Gardner Minshew, So what do you about this contest?
This is a really fascinating one, and I think to your point, Joe, the range of outcomes on this one is incredibly wide, and I think for that reason, I'd be looking to take one of these teams on an alternate spread. You know, mine is five and a half, my six and a half type thing to capture one of those tail outcomes, because I think the Colts probably have the much wider range of outcomes where they could either play tremendously well like they did against a Browns
defense that was playing at historic levels. Obviously that they didn't come away with the win there, but their offense showed up and could do the same thing to the Saints defense that has played pretty well this year.
But it's also Gardner.
Minshew like, I'm not going to trust it based off of one game. I think the Colts have the biggest advantage from a coaching perspective. I think Shane Stikeen has done phenomenal this year with his decision making and play calling, but the SAME's defense is still really good, so I don't have an early lean on this game right now, I'd be looking at again what I said that some of the alt spreads probably on the cult side of things.
Yeah, I can understand that, and that approach is the best way to make money off this game. Sam is one hundred percent right. Let's see if we can make some money on the next one.
Here.
The Jacksonville Jaguars coming off a big Thursday Night football victory. Trevor Lawrence despite that knee injury, Sam, he looks real good running the football all round, so he's got a little extra time arrest, which is a big thing here. Pittsburgh coming off a big win of their own going into LA. They brought all of their fan base with them to man at that feel like a home game in Los Angeles for the Steelers. Forty two is the
number for this one. Pittsburgh is two and a half point underdogs at home minus one ten plus one eighteen over on FanDuel. Sam. We started this season off one of my favorite beats in Week one was Pittsburgh home dog, and I was all in and for them to cover that number. They did not. They got their doors blown off. Is it time that we can start feeling comfortable again with going and attacking the Pittsburgh Steelers as home underdogs being a very dangerous thing, and maybe go right to
the money line at plus one eighteen on this. I want to say yes. I feel like you want to say yes too. Say yes, Sam, I don't.
Know what Mike Tomlin does in his spare time that he's got this Pittsburgh Steelers team where it is right now. I mean like they are winning games that nobody's expecting them to win the game against Baltimore, the game this past weekend, and I really like the Jaguars here. Pittsburgh I think is a team similar to New Orleans, where they get success from their defense, but the offense sputter is quite a bit. To your point, Jacksonville is going
to get ten days of rest. Trevor Lawrence looks really good, especially running the ball, despite going into that Thursday night game against the Saints with that knee injury. So I think that Jacksonville is going to be able to handle their business here and Mike Tomlin's voodoo magic will wear off.
For this one.
Look, it's very sensible of you, Sam. I guess I'm betting here a little bit more with my heart than my head, which probably is going to get me in trouble. But fits they have one two huge, get found a way to win, and sometimes that starts to build a little confidence. They do get after the quarterback too, that's a good thing.
I know.
There's a lot of deficits here when you look at the numbers for the Pittsburgh Steelers this year on defense, it's something we're not used to seeing. But let's not pretend like Jacksonville is perfect either on their defensive side of the football. So how do you see this game? Do you see the same value I do on Pittsburgh early?
I do, Joe, And of course Sam is the hardcore numbers guy, so he's got to go where the numbers lead him. And the numbers will tell you that the Steelers have no business watching ever being four and two right now because they have not been a good team this year. And meanwhile, the Jaguars have won four straight. They've averaged twenty nine points a game during that stretch.
But Joe, you asked me yesterday who I thought was gonna win the AFC North, and I told you the Steelers, and you like laughed, and I said, like, I mean, I have immense faith in Mike Tomlin, maybe way too much faith, Like I feel like eventually the Steelers are going to start playing better, especially on defense, because I think they have the personnel to be a lot better on defense.
And I'm going to take the Steelers as a.
Home dog, and I'm gonna hit them on the money line, Joe, as you recommended against a team that is an upstart in the AFC Up and coming for certain, but I don't think they are yet ready to be one of the elite teams of the AFC. Like I wouldn't even feel great about taking the Chiefs as a two and a half point road favorite in Pittsburgh, So why do I want to take the Jaguars at that number? So yeah, I mean, I just like I can't back Jacksonville here.
I'm going to take the money line with the Steelers.
Yeah, me too. I will say this. I did laugh in the morning, but after watching that game, I saw Kenny Pickett changing plays at goal line. I saw him starting to look more comfortable taking a little bit more charge being a quarterback basically, which is something you really didn't see in the first month of the season. It just did not look like it was in a good place and that's very encouraging, and that AFC North is
wide open. We're gonna talk about those teams kind of in a row here as we go before we get to them, though a few in between. The Cleveland Browns. Actually, no Cleveland Brown is going to write to him. I forgot Cleveland Brown's Seattle cleveand Brown's coming off a huge win. Seattle eaked one out against the lesser opponent that really they let hang around way too much in that game. Forty and a half is the number for this one. Seattle is two and a half point favorites at home
against Cleveland defense. Does travel pat the Cleveland Browns are plus one thirty? Do we see PJ Walker in this game? Or we backed into shann w So much intrigue going on with the Cleveland Browns at Miles Garrett, who has just been playing out of his mind so far in the last few weeks. What are your thoughts on this one here? Because this is also a matter of if you believe enough in that Cleveland defense, then I think that plus one thirty is a tremendous value right here.
Yeah, I'm guessing we do see Deshaun Watson in this one, Joe, since he was cleared to play and return, but they held him out. Kevin Stefanski didn't want to take any chances. So this is a really interesting, fun, fascinating matchup between two teams that I think are playoff caliber but maybe.
Not Super Bowl caliber.
And I looked at this one pretty hard at this morning, trying to find value on either the side, like a side or a total. Just couldn't do it. I think these the line and the total are both spot on.
So I'm not going to touch this one.
Sam, I'm going right for the Cleveland Browns. I'm going right for that. I just something about the Seahawks. I just don't buy into any toughness there. I don't think that home field advantage is the same thing it was a few years ago. I think that's kind of that ship has sailed a little bit as well on them. What do you think about this game or are you seeing it differently?
Yeah, Joe, we are no longer some pazzi coo.
We had a good run, Sam, we had a good run.
I'm with the Seahawks here. Their defense continues to play incredibly well. They haven't allowed to success rate over forty six percent in each of their last four games. Now you can look at the quality of the opponents that they're playing.
Glad you're waging that. That's what I want to talk about. Uh huh.
What about the Browns offense inspires you to think that they're any better than those those teams that they played. They they're one of the worst offenses in the league despite you know, regardless of who's at quarterback, and clearly there's something weird going on with us, this whole Deshaun Watson situation. You know, they were in this competitive game and they were trying to play the long game for Watson's health, but they didn't put him in. So it's just a really weird situation.
I think.
I think the Seahawks will get dk Metcalf back in this game as well. So I think while the Seahawks are on the better side of the three points, I'm taking them in this game.
All right. I'm standing alone here with my Cleveland Browns. They keep finding ways to win. And that's again, defense travels at the end of the day. I think that's a look for not in You're right, Seattle's defense, I've played well, it's just It's hard for me to believe in them and the opponents they've played. You know, when you go beat the forty nine ers offense with your defense, then I'm that perks my interest. Kansas City, man, they looked pretty good. They put up a ton of points.
Travis Kelsey, Patrick Mahomes looked unstoppable. Seven and a half point road favorites going into Denver. That's the best number you get right now. Forty five and a half is the number for this game, plus three ten for the Broncos on the money line. You could let that one go, folks. The question is I mean, I'm looking at this, Sam, I feel like the seven and a half just isn't enough. I mean, what am I not seeing here when it comes to Kansas City and Denver?
I have no idea. I'm back with you again. I made Kansas City ten point favorites, and the Chiefs were ten and a half point favorites when they played just two weeks ago on Thursday Night Football. But now they're on the road. They did win by eleven, so they barely covered that spread. But it's basically using the same line as that game and switching the one and a half points for home field advantage over to the Broncos.
But the Chiefs defense continues to play incredibly. They haven't allowed more than twenty one points in a game this season. The Chiefs offense did spun it a little bit in that second half against.
The Chargers, and I don't know.
I think the Chiefs are the best team in the NFL right now. Their offense is not at its full potential, but man, I just think they're waiting for that game to explode and this is going to be the one.
Well, I mean, Denver's one of the worst past defenses in the league. Mahomes look really comfortable last this best Sunday throwing the football again to Travis Kelcey all day long. I get a little me Cole Harbin back now, which is pretty fun. But I don't know, Pat, I'm looking at this and I expect it in my mind double digits, Like I'm thinking ten and a half and at seven and a half, and I just want to lock that in now because I'm worried that more time goes on,
this is going to continue to grow. Do you have that same concern.
I bet the Chiefs already, Joe, it is going to grow. I think we will get like this maybe is a chance to get to double digits. I wouldn't be surprised to see it finishing, closing it like Chiefs minus nine and a half or so. Look, the Chiefs have beaten the Broncos in sixteen straight games. This goes back to before the start of Patrick Mahomes career twenty fifteen. Like the Broncos in this rivalry are like Sisyphis trying to push the boulder up the hill, like they just can't
do it. It just keeps rolling back down over them. So yeah, give me the Chiefs all day here.
I love a good Sisyphis reference this early in the morning. It's my favorite thing. Next one here, the Baltimore Ravens just an absolute butt kicking. They laid on the Detroit Lions. Detroit was flying high. They got checked. They got checked hard too. Eight and a half is the number for this. When Baltimore Ravens our favorites against Arizona, that feels again also kind of like a small number. I know the Ravens have been frustrating Pat sometimes. Forty four is the
over under Arizona for the upset plus three thirty. But I keep coming back at minus one ten at eight and a half, I'm pretty comfortable with that number, especially if this is the new Ravens that we're going to see. Where they are. You know, Lamar is running the football over the place being Lamar again. You're seeing Odell healthy on the field. You're seeing Andrews look like Andrews A. Flowers has been really good, and look some of the running backs like Gus Edwards made a big play there.
If they can get that to travel and Arizona, goodness knows that offensive line is bad. What do you think you think this eight and a half is a gimme?
I two have bet the Ravens early, Joe and I didn't feel as good betting the Ravens as I did betting the Chiefs. For me, it is less about my confidence in the Ravens repeating the sort of performance they had against the Lions than it is in betting against the Cardinals, who I think have after the plucky start the first three weeks of the season kind of reverted to what we thought they were going to be, which
is basically the biggest doormat in the NFL. That was our expectation for them before the start of the season, Cardinals have lost four straight games by double digits, failed to cover in all four of those games. Yeah, and the Ravens are just humming right now. So even I think if the Ravens offense were to have some hiccups in this game, they could still cover the number pretty easily because I don't see the Cardinals doing much business against the Baltimore defense.
Okay, Sam, your thoughts on this one. Baltimore had a really strong showing. Am I overrating what I saw Sunday too much?
I don't think so. I mean, the Lions were a great team, and they blew the doors off them offensively. They shut the offense of the Lions down, and so I think Baltimore is easily going to go into Arizona and cover this spread. I mean, they're getting healthier on offense, they have their full set of receivers now that I don't think they're quite as talented as they were hoping
to going into the season. But as this offense starts to click, and I think we saw, you know, sort of the first iteration of that Lamar played at an MVP level like we've seen him play in the past, and I don't think this Cardinals defense is going to be able to slow them down whatsoever.
Yeah, I don't think the offensive line is gonna slow down anybody either. Let me tell you they are a joke. Cincinnati at San Fran. We'll see what San Fran does tonight. Christian McCaffrey is slated to play in that Monday night game. Don't forget you could always check us out Monday nights, so we're always doing five pm Eastern bop and I going through the best bets for Monday Night football and Thursday Night Football Thursdays at five pm Eastern.
Two.
You got the San Francisco minus five and a half. That feels about right to me. Minus one ten on DK forty five and a half is the number the Bengals had that buy, hopefully a little even healthier for Joe Burrow plus two ten and for t Higgins two plus two ten for the Bengals here for the upset, I don't think the upset is not in play here, Sam. I know the forty nine ers on paper are that better team, but it's not always the best team that wins. The team to plays the best. So what are your
thoughts here as San Francisco coming off that loss. I know we have to see what they bring tonight against Minnesota, but is there any early value before that game happens.
I don't think so. I honestly have no lean here right now. I think this number is spot on. Had San Francisco's five and a half point favorite, so I think it's about in line what I was expecting. I mean, if you do like Cincy, I don't think this is a bad spot because San Francisco will be playing on a short week with Cincinnati coming off of thereby, But I'm guessing that's baked into the line a little bit.
I'm guessing if they both have equal rest, then San Francisco is maybe six six and a half point favorites. So this is going to be a fascinating game. I'm looking forward to watching this one, but I don't have any early leans right now.
Pat any early leans in San Franz Cincy.
No, not really. In Sam's take was pretty much spot on.
First I saw this line, I thought it should be six or six and a half, but then I realized, yeah, Bengals coming off the bye, forty nine ers going into this game with short rest, and I guess I'm also feeling a little bit more confident in Joe Burrow's health now that he's made it through six games with that wounded calf and coming off a bye, so he could be pretty close to one hundred percent for this game. No, no leaning either way here, I think the line's pretty spot on.
Bears go to Los Angeles to face the Chargers. Chargers are eight and a half point favorites minus one to ten on DK forty six and a half is the number one FanDuel plus three point fifty on the money line for the Bears. Pat Look, the Bears looked really good at home against a bad opponent, but at least they dominated a bad opponent. You don't know if we'renna get justin fields or not in this game. Do you see anything here with Chicago LA that's intriguing to you?
Yeah, As our colleague Andrew Ericksson asked in a Slack conversation earlier this morning, should the Chargers be favored by eight and a half points out of anyone in the NFL? You know, especially against the Bears, who have staged some
unexpected uprisings this season. They beat the Washington Commanders and the Las Vegas Raiders very handily, and they just demolished the Raiders with an undrafted rookie free agent making his first NFL start at quarterback, so man, Nonetheless, I'm still pretty reluctant to bet the Bears with an undrafted rookie
free agent quarterback. So I'm probably just gonna lay off and I might take the under here since the Bears defense has been surprisingly respectable lately, Like I don't think that run defense is terrible, and we saw them sort of bottle up Josh Jacobs just this past Sunday, So this might be a little too tall of a total, but I don't really want to bet either side here.
Sam Juranieri came on the show a couple weeks ago and told us, no matter what, always bet the Chargers in their favorites, especially in that first half, and then immediately in the second half, bet against them, and that has been a pretty good practice. Is that the path of least resistance here with this contest too, because I'm with Pat. This just feels like a lot of respect for the Chargers probably.
I mean, I think if this stays at eight eight and a half, teasing the Chargers down to two and a half, is one of my favorite ways to play this game. Chicago's had a positive EPA per play in three of their last four games. They've had a positive rushing EPA per play in their last three games and four of their last five.
But the Chargers rushing defense might be improving a little bit.
They've had a rushing success rate allowed below thirty percent in each of the last two weeks against Dallas and Kansas City.
Now, either of.
Those teams are particularly spectacular in the rushing department, but it is good to see that that defense improving.
A little bit.
So I think I just want to stick with the Chargers as a potential teaser, like for.
Right now, last one here Monday Night Football, talk about get right games. The Detroit Lions minus seven and a half at minus one ten on Fandel, we'll take on the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders also having QB problems of their own. Forty five is the number on Caesars, forty four and a half on DK, plus three hundred on the mL for Vegas. Sam. Does Detroit get back on track here and hand the Vegas Raiders their lunch?
I think so.
The Lions, I don't think are nearly as bad as their performance. Sunday indicates the Ravens had twenty eight points before the Lions.
Had their first first down of the game.
And to what we were just talking about, the Raiders just got the doors blown off with them by Tyler Bage. So I think the Raider the Lions are going to easily be able to go back home in prime time, show up with everything, and take care of their business.
See he's such a backup. He even called him Tyler, not Tyson. That's how little respect Sam Hoppin has for Beige. Whoops. Oh no, Fitzy, let's close it out strong. Here your thoughts on this last contest? Here is Detroit Lions. This is look, we all expect the Lions to win, but is a bigger number here? Any concern? Yeah?
I never need to find much of an excuse to bet against the Josh McDaniel Raiders, And with the Lions coming off this bad loss, I think they're going to be breathing fire for this game.
So yeah, I'm taking the Lions.
And laying the points as they should be breathing fire. Don't forget make sure you get those line alerts on the VP app. Use that game notifications tool so you can set it and watch them these lines as they move. We've talked about a lot of them today that might make some changes obviously in the days ahead. You should also subscribe to the channel so you can follow all the podcasts, all the content that goes on here at
Betting Pros. And if you drop a comment below you could win that Robert Tunyan jersey and don't forget to join our NFL contest at Bettingpros dot com slash NFL contest. That'll do it for us, but the story of the game goes on for fits and Sam. I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids. Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to
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