Free Picks for EVERY Week 7 NFL Game (Ep. 362)

Welcome in, everybody to betting pros. It's time to place your bets. It's me Joey p Joe Pie Zapia and it's Monday. You know what that means. It's time to look ahead to Week seven in the NFL. And maybe that's a good thing for a lot of teams that were overlooking their opponents. In Week six, we had some massive upsets. The Cleveland Brown's upset, the San Francisco forty nine Ers, the New York Jets, and Zach Wilson. That's right, that Zach Wilson beat the Philadelphia Eagles. So it's a crazy,

I don't know about you, very very happy. And to turn the page, I need Monday night to go pretty well, to end up above fifty percent for bets. So just a bloodbath on bets. And I was watching the same game, Joe, and because of where I'm at, I wasn't able to live Bett and Hedge. I would that is the sharpest all get out call. But I'm watching it with my kids, and my kids go, hey, Dad, who we want to win? And I was like, we really want the forty nine ers to win right now?

Yeah, then we want them to win.

And I was like, okay, all I need is for them to drive the distance of the field and then we get the cover for the four and a half. So I need it and we didn't. We didn't know any that did not happen.

Sam. I was texting with Derek during this game, saying, Oh, I'm just so good for the Browns. Every time something good happened for them. I kept texted in BJ Walker, PJ Walker. Sam, you mentioned to me before the show started, you're not sure if any team is good in the NFL. Who's the best team in the NFL right now? If I had to ask.

You, it's probably the Chiefs.

I mean, like at this point, you got to give them the benefit of the doubt. With Patrick Mahomes. Their defense we'll talk about later. I think is a top five defense right now, and they have Andy Reid. I mean, it's it's them, or it's still probably the forty nine ers I think up top. I think again, going against one of the best defenses, if not now the best defense in the league, there was just a sort of a tail outcome for them on offense.

So all right, well, we're going to try to pick up the pieces from week six, move on to week seven before we do a little bit of housekeeping. You know, we like to give away free things here, so it's time to give away that. Odell Beckham jersey again the Ravens own thanks to Betting Pros. So the big winner of the Ravens jersey is you, Casey Phillips. Congratulations, Casey Phillips.

I don't. This is a real tricky one. Obviously you mentioned Trevor Lawrence dealing with some injury issues that the market right now I think is pessimistic on Lawrence playing this game. I think in an out of conference game Thursday night, short week, they maybe exercise some caution with Lawrence. They also lost Tyson Campbell their top cornerback and Brandon Shurf their top lineman against the cold this past week. So they're dealing with a number of injuries, not just

All right, coming off a tough loss there in Houston, do you think that New Orleans takes advantage of this home field that they have in a Jacksonville Jags team that's a little banged upty? Or what do you see here? Or you're just looking for the under Like Sam said.

I think the unders in play, but give me I'll look for the Saints to cover in this one, and I want the Saints money line not only playing at home. This game is another one we get more news on Trevor Lawrence, Like if he misses this game, spread's gonna tilt, it's gonna go in New Orleans favor. I want to be ahead of that. And yeah, I mean I think the Saints win this game. So if I'm I think this money again, if any Lawrence news drops, I think this moves more in the Saints favor And I like

Next up is the Giants at home, coming off another loss. There now one in five, maybe that call should have gone their way. We can argue that all day. They are two point underdogs at home to Washington minus one and a half, and get that number over on fandle right now, the number is anywhere from forty to forty and a half right now, if you like the Giants to pull out this in division win at home plus

Give me the Giants money line. And I know I'm talking about a one in five team, but we just saw them go toe to toe with the Buffalo Bills. Tyrod actually moving this offense going against the Commanders and they get them at home if that defense can stack another good week. And Washington's offensive line has been abysmal. The Giants pass rush is nothing. To sit here and snub your nose at so they can get pressure after

I'm a sucker for those eighties throwbacks that Giants were wearing last night. They looked so good. It looks so good. It's so good, and look they left it all out there in the field. They gave it everything against the Buffalo Bills. In your opinion, Sam, do you see any value early on in this New York Washington game?

Yeah, not really. I originally made this line Washington by two and a half. I'd really don't think whether it's Daniel Jones or Tyrod Taylor, that the line changes all that much. You know, you think about the randomness of the NFL, like if that end of half scenario goes differently for the Giants and then they are in field goal range to potentially win that game. Like, I don't know if we're talking about them that differently, but it

No, I can understand that, And look, I think the only difference was if they had won that game last night. You build a little momentum of confidence, like, hey, we got saque back, we got a huge road victory. We're gonna come home in division game and get back on track. Now you're gonna see what Brian Dabole Coach of the Year is worth because now You're gonna know how he motivates these guys. Are they are you one and five in your quitting or are you one in five? Are

Yeah, I mean, really a tough situation with Damian and Harris. Hope he's okay, but absolutely, I think the Bills can cover here. Their four man rush on defense is so lethal. I mean they have the sixth highest pressure rate but only the twenty ninth highest blitzer rate, so they are getting after the quarterback with just four guys. The Bill's defense is a little bit boom or bust for this reason. When the pass pass protection can hold up on the other side, the team can you know, give up some

I do too. In fact, I want to lock it in now because I think it's only going to grow as time goes. I think people are gonna bet the Bills hard early on. I think this is gonna go to double digits easily. And I might even tease this one too, Like, I just feel like that, uh de bro, your take on New England Buffalo offense not good for the Patriots defense not much better?

Yeah, I mean that the Patriots are just an isore right now. It's really bad. I don't disagree that. I think that Buffalo can cover this. The only thing that I think could could drag this to where Buffalo doesn't cover is the Bills have a really bad run defense. This is a perfect spot New England at home inter division game for them to slow things down. Feed mare feed zeke, drag this game to the under and to be honest, like I maybe the under is the only

The mac Jones turnovers too. I mean that first interception he three yesterday was so bad. It was such a bad bad desis It's just broken there like and the Buffalo Bills are gonna have turnovers in this game. I'm staying away from the over under. I'm just going straight to the Bills. That's all I'm doing here. Let's go straight to Tampa Bay. It's much warmer there. Let's go to Tampa. They are three and two. They are minus two and a half. You're at home. The Atlanta Falcons

I like the Falcons in this one. Give me their lot, their bunny line. I think the total and the spread are pretty spot on. But I do think the Falcons can go into Tampa and win this game. Defense still playing good. There's still pressure in the quarterback. Well, we know that break Baker Mayfield can fall apart, and he's been surprisingly good versus pressure this year. But I think that you're looking at the outside doo of these corners. We still haven't seen a just monster blow up game

All right, Pat, This line is basically choose your own adventures. So how do you want to choose it?

First of all, I think Atlanta struggles on early downs defensively, but Tampa Bay struggles on early downs offensively. So I think that I don't know, it's just one. I don't We have so many question marks in these games in this slate that I just none of it really weren't much opportunity.

Yeah, it doesn't.

If it doesn't work much opportunity, then it sounds like you're thinking about unders when it comes to this forty'.

I mean, yeah, forty points is a lot for these teams. I mean, Tampa Bay is a pass final defense. But Desmond Rider has struggled. He had the one good game last week, but I think he just needs to get the ball in the hands of his playmakers, whether it's Bijon Drake London, John new Smith, any of those three guys. Really, I think they can move the ball and potentially get the upset here.

All right, let's see if I can tempt you with the Detroit Baltimore game instead. This one's going to be in Baltimore. It's minus two and a half here for the Baltimore Ravens. You're getting the plus two and a half at minus one oh five overrun DraftKings forty four is the number one fandal forty four and a half on DK if you like Detroit to win plus one twenty two. Very interesting case to be made. Some injuries though, to talk about David Montgomery questionable here. We'll see how

This is another one that I don't see a ton of value, And actually I think I think Detroit is the play here. You know, we have a lot of strength on strength matchups in this game. You have the Detroit passing offense versus the Baltimore passing defense. But if you look at the quarterbacks that Baltimore has played so far this year, it was CJ. Stroud in his very first game and injured Joe Burrow, Gardner, Minshew, Dorian Thompson, Robinson,

Look, I've had a hard time trusting the Baltimore Ravens all year, and that's why I'm kind of leaning towards the money line here with Detroit. I'd like to get some good reports on some players. But that being said, D is that where you're kind of leaning at this early stage as well?

I think I'm gonna take the opposite side of this game here.

The argument I want to hear it.

So Baltimore is not pressure on the quarterback, but they are an extremely good pass defense. I know who they've played has not been very good. But what are we talking about with the Lions here? If they are without David Montgomery, If Jamir Gibbs doesn't play in this game, Sam Laporte is banged up, what if he misses this game? You have Amarro, Sam Brown maybe, I mean Jamo's are not even running double digit routes right now, so you

Now, we do have some huge marquee matchups here in Week six, some really exciting football games. This next one is not one of them. The Chicago Bears at one in five hosting the Las Vegas Raiders at three and three. Again, this is a choose yard adventure. The numbers three for the Vegas Raiders on the road against Chicago. I think it's unlikely we see justin Fields again, We're still waiting MRIs and imaging and all these things. Forty and a half is the number plus one thirty five, Derek, Look,

Your thoughts, Yeah, I think go to four and a half or five, just depending on how how you know how much money comes in on that. I think the bets are for this game are pretty straightforward. I think it's the Raiders to cover lock in the minus three and I will happily take the under for this game as well. I mean we're not even talking about like maybe we don't get Jimmy Garoppolo. Maybe it's Aidan to O'Connell. It's it's Aim O'Connell versus Trace and Pagent in this game.

That's true, This line.

Is gonna go right, Like, I'm kind of surprised it's even open.

So many injuries, Derek, I can't even I can't. We just did the Waiver podcast, Joe, I know, I know, I totally forgot about the Garppolo one in my head. And Sam, I mean back in but still, like I'm looking at the deficits of the Bears without justin fields, and like the first thing I'm thinking of is, well, what's the Max Crosby sack prop Like that's the first thing in my head. I want to go for that one. To me, that's the best bet you can make in this game, but it's too early to make it down.

Look, if if you had told me that in week seven we were gonna get a potential Brian Hoyer versus Tyson Badger matchup, I mean, put it in the calendar book market like this is.

Man like he's gonna he's gonna DVR this, like you have like a seal of this.

On a serious note, so I do think it is gonna be Brian Hoyer. Jimmy Garoppolo can't play, and I think Hoyer is competent enough to get the ball in day Adams, Jakobe Myers, Josh Jacob's hands. Like these guys are their entire offense and they're moving the ball pretty well. Uh, you know, to your point, Max Crosby has been incredible this year once again, can wreck this Chicago Bears offensive line. I like the Raiders with the points here.

Yeah. Look, it's crazy days out there with all these injuries. Speaking of injuries, we'll see if PJ. Walker makes his second start. I mean why not? I mean, heck, it was fun right. Indianapolis Colts are gonna host the Cleveland Browns here in this contest. The Cleveland Browns are one and a half point favorites Overrip at MGM. You can get Indianapolis at plus two and a half at minus one fifteen at FanDuel. The number for this game is thirty nine and a half on fandle forty points bet

Well, you asked me about a trap game last week, and I profusely push that down, and.

You did previously push that down. What what game was that? Again?

Was the Brown I raise my hand.

I did if you had told me that I was going to get six points of closingline value, I'm making that bet one hundred times out of one hundred. Okay, it was a tail out come. But in any case, I bet.

The minus four and a half on Sanford. It was the right process was However, However, the right pivot is when you're watching these games live, you have this opportunity to to redeem yourself and look at some of these things and and I think that's one of the great

Yeah, I mean, I think I was sort of waiting for Cleveland's defense to show something against a top offense, and they did exactly that. Again San Francisco. Obviously we know San Francisco dealing with the injuries on offense to Trent Williams, Christian McCaffrey and Debs Samuel, But even with them in the game, like they were just crushing them And I don't see how, you know, as fun as Garner Minshew is, they just don't even have the same level of playmakers as the forty nine ers. So I

Yeah, I'm on the Cleveland side too. Defense travels at the end of the day. We just talked about the defense on the Way We Wire podcast on Fantasy Bros. Derek, and you know they were only thirty percent rostered still and that's because they were coming off a bye and then people started dropping them because they are forty nine ers. Is gonna be ugly? Well it wasn't. I mean there, it's ugly, just a game ugly for a brock perty

Your thoughts, I'm with Sam. If this game would have been in Cleveland, this line would have opened at like minus three and a half probably for the Browns. So even though they're on the road, I'm totally fine betting the Browns one to cover. You want to attack their money line, that's fine too. I think this defense is gonna go into Indian slap the mustache off of Minshew's face.

Okay, I like that. Los Angeles Rams are going to host the Pittsburgh Steelers, coming off there by minus three for the Rams at home, you get plus three and a half on the Pittsburgh Steelers at minus one fifteen at bet MGM, the three is at DK forty two and a half is a DK and if bandle as well, plus one forty six for the Steelers on the money line. Derek, Look, I think the Rams big question now is the injuries to that Backfieldkyen Williams, Ronnie Rivers both hurts, and now

I just don't know how much that line's gonna move just based off of Kien Williams, Like if you had bigger news like it was Hooker, Cooper, Stafford somebody like that. I can't see the line moving that much for the Rams. I mean as far as in the Pittsburgh side. So really, I want to lock this in early. Give me the

Sam, do you agree with Derek that this line probably is not going to move much all week long?

Yeah, I don't think so. I think this line is actually like spot on right now. And you mentioned the backfield injuries for the Rams. On the Pittsburgh side of the ball, it sounds like they're going to get Pat Friar Muth back. They could get Deontay Johnson back on offense as well. Larry Ogunjobi and TJ. Watt did go into their bye week with some injuries at the end of their pre bye week games.

I'm fine.

He already popped his faver back in the place. He's good.

Yeah, it doesn't sound like they're going to miss any time, so that's good. But it is something too to monitor. We've seen that this Pittsburgh passing defense can be exploited, and the passing attack of the Rams is the best unit on that team. So I think that this line is spot on. I'm staying away right now, but I think this is going to be a really good matchup.

Arizona at Seattle. Seattle seven and a half point favorites against Arizona. You can get Arizona plus eight and a half over on DK on the betting pros app right now. Forty five and a half is that number? Forty six and a half of the under on DK plus three ten for the Cardinals. Cardos are one and five. Look, you know they got a lot of moxie. They hang in there. Seattle defense not great sam But at the same time, do you think that the seven and a half is a little too big of a number.

I don't think so.

I think you know, you could tell that the Seahawks offensive line was struggling against Cincinnati, but Arizona is not nearly as a as ferocious of a d line. They have the worst pressure rate in the league. I think Kenneth Wager should be able to run all over this Arizona defense. You know you said the Seattle defense has been bad. Their run defense has been sneaky excellent this year. Their fifth in rushing EPA for play, first in success rate.

In your opinion, are those excellent because everybody just wants to throw the ball on them? Or are they excellent on their own just out of curiosity? Because I think the plan of attack for Seattle is throw against them, So those numbers deflated because people want to attack them in the secondary.

I'm sure that's part of it too, but they I don't know. I just think they're they're performing even if they are throwing against Seattle a ton like when they are running the ball, they're struggling to do so. So I don't think Arizona is going to be able to pass the ball super effectively against them. The Josh Dobbs hype has has sort of worn off a little bit in recent weeks.

I'll double down with Sam here. I think it's because Seattle's run defense is actually really freaking good.

Well, okay, I want to ask the question because I feel like that's we talked about a lot, like Derek when we do the Betting Pro Show. I mean, you see the DFS show on the Betting Pro Channel on Fridays, we always talk about like up Seattle, let's throw the ball against Seattle, you know, so I just wonder, you know, sometimes there's that you know, apples and our statistics sometimes where ye know, well are they really good at this? Or a people just not challenging.

The gout, I mean the other part. And I wanted to double check this real fast. But you've got four five guys for Seattle grading out with seventy five or higher run defensive grades for the Seattle Seahawks. And one of those guys we haven't seen a whole lot of with Jamal Adams, so if he comes back, he's a full time guy. I think that their run defense actually goes up another here.

Okay, let's go to Los Angeles and Kansas City. The Chiefs are five and one, they're at home. They're five and a half point favorites against the Chargers. We'll see what the Chargers do tonight. Fifty one is the number on the total here plus two a five for the Los Angeles Chargers to win. These are typically pretty competitive games. We've seen Herbert really kind of show his best against Kansas City, which is fun to me, I'm just gonna write for that fifty one. I know it's tough for

Oh, I'm going under. I'm going big down under on this game. The Kansas City defense has been elite. Lugerius Sneed is playing out of his freaking mind man like he is shadowed. I'm curious when I pull up the metrics this week. He's shadowed in almost every single game, and the laundry list of guys he is shut down has been awesome. So I'm looking at this game. This

All right, Sam, your thoughts? Are you also in on the under in this one?

I am?

I mean again, the name value, with the quarterbacks Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes obviously driving this total up. But like I mentioned earlier in the show, I think Kansas City has a top five defense. They're top eight in EPA per play, success rate EPA per drive. Their passing defense is third in EPA per play and second in success rate, so they've been able to slow down some of these passing attacks. Their rushing defenses is still a

Playing with bringing Bo that was nice.

We're going to jokes today.

I like that, man, I'm here for it, Sam, I got a quick question, man, if before we get to this next one, if you just took the name Cache out of these quarterbacks and these offenses and just look at what they were doing this season, doesn't this feel like a game that should be like forty seven and a half ish, if not maybe a little bit lower based off all what these teams have actually done this year.

Yeah, and you're sort of I think the lines are the line for the total is possibly baking in. Okay, maybe this is the week for the Chiefs.

To have a click.

But again, yeah, they're offering hasn't been great.

It hasn't been Look, that is absolutely accurate. It hasn't been great. They are working progress. However, Look, I think you can't just say if you take the quarterbacks away, because this is a quarterback league and those two quarterbacks are capable of putting on a show. And that's why if this number was fifty three and a half, I'd probably be more where you are, because last year they were a fifty four and fifty one for the two

The Packers need Aaron Jones back. I mean, I don't want to put a ton of value into a single running back, but AJ Dillon has played not well this year, and they just need some explosiveness back in that offense. As of this morning, Jones was practicing, so that's good to see. I believe Darnell Savage was practicing and kway Walker was doing some stuff off to the side. But I like the under here. The Broncos defense hasn't been very good, but need it just these offenses are sort

All Right, Derek, your thoughts on this one before you go to the two games that everybody really is excited about.

I think Sam brought it up a point that I wanted to hit on this. With Denver having a bottoms, I won't say that there's sixth worst in pressure rate this year, and that's been the Achilles Hill for Jordan Love. He just melts under pressure. And at Denver their pass rush can't get home. I like the Packers to win this game. I do lean towards the under just because of how both of these teams have played. But the Aaron Jones news I think could swing a little bit.

All right, Let's go to Miami at Philadelphia. This is a good one here, Sunday Night football. Let's go. The Eagles are minus two and a half point favorites of this one over on DK at minus won ten. Fifty two and a half is the number on FanDuel fifty three over on DK. If you like the under, you get my aami a plus one twenty five. So, look, Miami's had some injuries here with the backfield. We know

I could see either one of these teams pulling this win out. And I'm kind of surprised, Like I think this spread should be a little bit closer than what it is. I just want to take that. I want to hit the over for this game. And because you're telling me Philly is going to force the Dolphins to be more pass heavy because they are a pass funnel. Yeah, okay, fine two is gonna take to the ear Tyreek Waddle,

How about you, Sam? How do you see this one? Because this is the marquee matchup, is the standalone game? Is gonna be a lot of betting on it. Do you want to go ahead and be on the Miami side, the Philly side, or just the side of the over?

I'm on the Miami side here. Philadelphia is struggling with some injuries in the secondary. Reblankenship left early, Bradley Roby left the game earlier. Dale Darius Slay did not play like who is going to cover Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle Like it doesn't matter no, Like Ladon Johnson left the game early as well, which is a huge potential loss for a Philadelphia offensive line that is potentially the best in the league. The Philadelphia pass rush has not

All right. Last one here, San Francisco forty nine Ers, another team coming off their loss. Man the Eagles had just beaten the Jets, they would be right at the top of that NFC where looking down at everybody. They did not handle their business either did the forty nine Ers. They're gonna go play the Minnesota Vikings. They are now two and four. Look, the Vikings are not great, so one would imagine here that San France should go in there and take care of Minnesota and maybe take out

Too, Yeah, I think it could. I mean the discourse with Rock Party this week, who be interesting to follow, but.

Take all the toys away all of a sudden, He's not Tom Brady too anymore. He's not Tom Brady two point maybe, so I do think, go on.

Geez, he did.

And I think something under discussed is obviously the Trent Williams entry. He apparently was seen wearing a walking boot out of the game. Now that's not a death sentence by any means, but this man Minnesota defense hasn't been as terrible as expected, at least going into the season. They're obviously not the Browns defense by any stretch of the matter. But this is what I'm staying away from

I think it's an interesting one from a prop standpoint. The game itself. That's the one where I struggle here, because you know, it's not that I don't have faith in the forty nine ers, it's just it's a weird scenario now with the injuries on top of it, and the walking boat's never a good thing. I mean, walking boat typically means you ain't playing this week at the very least. So Derek, your thoughts on this one as we close out Week seven look ahead?

I all these lines are really good. They're really a spot on the spread of the totals. I want to stay away from those. I do. I don't want to sound like I'm insane here, but I do see a scenario where the Vikings could win this game if you look at how their defense stacks up against this. If no Trent Williams this week, we don't get debo, he doesn't have CMC, and the Vikings are blitzing at the

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