Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place your bets. It is me Joey p Joe Pi Zapia and it's week six in the NFL and you can believe it already. It's time to find some early lines that we like that can give us a leg up on our competition, to help us look ahead to the games and where we can find that value. Sam Hoppin, who joins us every single Monday here, it was a fun week last week. Lots of early value. Sam help us find a lot of that, So it's great to
see Sam. It's also great to see a new face here on the BP side of things, Derek Brown, Debro the King of Bros, coming over with us to talk a little early line action. Filling in for Pat Fitzmorris this morning. Deebro and I Thursday Night Football are going to be live on our discord by the way too, talking about some in game live betting for the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs. Ken the Denver Broncos get out of their own way. Probably not, but it doesn't
mean we can't make money off of it. And Sam Hoppin, speaking of making money it's a really good week for us. Oh, the latter bet of Devon ah Chan was a big money maker. You made the money. I made the money on it. I hope all of you listening to Friday's show and my mini monologue made the money off it. How did it feel to get it in the first half to Sam because to me, that was the most exciting part. No sweat, just right for the jugular seventy yard run and we made a lot of cash.
It was incredible. It was great to see him break off that long run. I mean he's five yards from these safeties and then two seconds later he's twenty yards from them. I mean, his first and speed is just absolutely incredible. Being able to get around the corner like that. I mean, the market clearly mispriced those rushing lines. Well, it'll be interesting to see what they have it at
this week. They have another potentially easy game this week, so it could be a little bit higher than it was last week.
It could be and it's rare that you get these and which is why you know, we jump on them when we see them, and it happens a few times a year. It'll probably happen to get at some point, but This was the first time that I've done this in the NFL season. I've talked about this on the MLB show we do on our MLB channel. We did a couple of times with some strikeout totals, and we crushed it, absolutely crushed it. Kevin Gosman at fourteen K's one night we did six and a half all the
way up to the twelve and a half. It was brilliant debro. Again, it doesn't happen all the time, but there's certainly these opportunities that show up there, and this is such an explosive player where you have to take that into account. That being said, yesterday also some huge overs on a lot of individual players there, even with high expectations like Jamar Chase had high expectations, still crushed it. David Montgomery, high expectation, still crushed it. So yesterday was
a really interesting day in terms of offense. What was the biggest thing that stood out to you of all those performances that over delivered that had high expectations.
I talked about it all week, Joey I said it was the Jamar Chase nuclear game. I said it was the bounce back for him in Burrow man, and I bet the overs for Chase and people are following me on Betting pros dot com slash debro. You already know, baby, we're talking about sixty percent. We're back in the w this week, so I'm loving a man that and I also got the money lines for the Saints and the Jets at plus money.
So it was good week of betting boys. Good week, and let's kick it over to week six.
I'm ready.
Let's do it. Let's start here and remember at the top here. Before we even get going, make sure you drop a comment below. Subscribe to the YouTube channel here at Betting Pros because you could win a signed Odell Beckham junior jersey. It's gonna be vintage pretty soon because he doesn't see the field very often, so this is gonna be a collector's item. This this jersey might see more time in your living room or your den, or your man cave or your lady cave than it does
on the field. Let's still give me yours right now. All you have to do is drop a comment below. Man went to our channel and click that little bell for notifications till it goes ding. All right, let's kick things off here with Thursday Night Football, Deebro and I will be live for this and speaking of DFS too, As you mentioned, Derek and I on the These podcast channel here at Betting Pros. It's audio only right now, but we do our DFS show every single Friday that drop,
so make sure you check that out too. Deebro and I host in that. Deebro, when we're talking discord here, Kansaity Chiefs, Denver Broncos, Casey coming out with a big road victory, still trying to find themselves on offense. The total for this game is fifty one, Derek. We're looking at the number here, Kansas City ten point favorites over on points Bet, and then if you like the Denver upset, which I do not, plus four twenty five, you're getting
a big number there. Look, the Chiefs haven't looked as dominant. Kelsey could be in for a short week miss of this game that could also have a big impact on it. Do you think that this ten might be too much under those circumstances that just laid out, or do you think that the Denver Broncos are that hot of a mess.
I think they're a hot mess, but I think the points that you just brought up here, Joe, is that if Kelsey's limited, this offense has not looked great. I don't want to touch the spread, But as far as would really intrigue with this game is I want to hit the under on the total. Kansas City's defense has played extremely well. I think Lugerius Sneed is probably going to shadow Courtland Sutton. Take him out of this game because he's been doing in three of the four games,
probably did it last week versus Jefferson two. And the other part about this is that we need to bring up here is both of these teams have been surprisingly slow. Kansas City is thirteenth lowest and neutral pace. Denver is checking in at the eighth slowest pace. So, however you want to talk about this game, whether it's Denver falling on its face, whether it's the slow pace. The biggest betting opportunity for this game for me is the under fifty one that you can get. It looks like unibet
at minus one oh eight right now? All right, Sam, how do you see this one shaken out here? Any early value on this Thursday night game, especially with some potential question marks of Travis Kelcey.
I would totally agree. I mean that I don't see a reason why Kansas City would stretch it with Kelsey knowing how important he is to this offense, knowing they're playing a Broncos team that can easily be beaten. I think you know you mentioned they haven't played up to their potential. I think in week one we saw the receiver struggle with drops and stuff, and we sort of expected that to turn around, but it just hasn't. None of them have really stepped up to be the guy.
To Derek's point, Kansas City defense ranks top eight in most advanced metrics except rushing EPA for play. So I do think that Kansas City is going to come away with the win here, but they definitely it's going to be I think a little bit more difficult to cover that ten and a half.
Then I agree people expect I tend to lean that way. You know what the best bet here is boys Isaiah Pacheco yardage over. I don't know what that number is. He took it from me. I was just about to say that this is as.
Soon as they drops, you're slamming the over.
Matter what is bet it? Even if it gets a little high on the surface, just at it, because what do you think it's going to own tap any Joey?
Like I would say a half matchups see and that's I was gonna say. I think in most matchups you're looking at a checko opening in the high fifties or low sixties.
Even if he opens with let's steak to the DA nine, Like you're the data genius, what would you open that number at check out?
Come on, Sammy?
I probably said it mid sixties issue, okay, because I sixty six and a half excuse me? Yeah? Sixteens like an ice number heavy their second in past right over expectation. I think again, they're they're not going to struggle to move the ball through the air, So it's just a matter of do they get too far ahead where they're putting someone else in at running back.
All right, let's move on now to the Sunday games here, starting again in England, Tennessee Titans are home. In quotation marks and air quotes, forty and a half is the number four of this one. You get that over on FanDuel. Tennessee is three and a half point underdogs in this one. Baltimore three point favorites again coming off a bad loss
to the Steelers where they just dropped everything. Sam, it was obnoxious the amount of draft drops by that wide receiver corps plus one sixty two on the money line. If you like Tennessee to win outright, which I think is in play. What's your take early on on this one, Sam.
Let me just say that Baltimore loss was so frustrating. It was one of my highest convention plays.
O tell me, I had one piece. It was the last piece of a parlay five legs. All they had to do was whin I got four of the other five?
Right?
Would I won another five hundred?
You can drop every single pass possible.
Anyway, So my rage is real. But continue.
So, speaking of the drops, that the Ravens lost over five points of expected points on their drops. They just struggled with the turnovers, obviously the turnover in the end zone towards the end of regulation. That said, Baltimore I think has a top four defense. You know, San Francisco's up there. I think Cleveland's is up there to Dallas despite what happened last night, but that defense is playing
exceptionally well. They're getting a little healthier in the secondary as well, and Tennessee is just sort of middling at a lot of things. Their thirtieth in early down success rate, which is not what you want to see. So I take Baltimore with the points again despite what happened this past week. And I think the under is also in play here because Tennessee is a very slow team. Baltimore I think gets slower and passes a little bit less this upcoming week after having a two point seven percent
password to over expectation this past week. They were negative the two weeks before, so I think this is again it's going to be a similar kind of game to what we saw in Pittsburgh this past week. And again the Tennessee Titans have given Baltimore fits the last couple of years too.
Yeah. See, Also, I love the under. I love you talked about that too, because you've seen a lot of these London games hit the out unders, like the little sluggishness that comes out in the travel and all the chaos of some of these games that happened. I'm actually on the Tennessee side of the plus one sixty two just outright. I think that's where the that's where the value lies. It's just the discipline of looking at saying, if it's so close, give me the best odds, and
to me, that's how I make the most money. It's the same thing I said on Thursday Night Football, whereas I don't believe in the Washington Commanders. I said this on the live shoot to Bogman. I was like, the best bet on this is just to bet the Chicago Bears outright and close your eyes and go to sleep and hope you wake up and they win, and you know what they did. So I can think at the end of the day, Debro, it's my lack of faith in either of these two teams just sends me to
the value. Where does it send you?
It right to the money line for Tennessee plus sixty two. Yeah, you give me plus odds on a moneyline bet, I'm probably gonna be interested in that in this game. I'm with Sam on I think it's a really good line. But if I'm gonna hit the total, it's gonna be the under. And yeah, the money line for Tennessee is what sticks out to me. And again, as soon as the prop markets open, you can also interest me in
the overs for Za Flowers. We've seen so many missteps and just miscues and just poor play out of the Tennessee secondary.
The target volume is there.
Last week he didn't connect on deep shots. We've seen Za Flowers a dot go up. So I'll be bet in the over for his receiving yardage props and taking the money line for Tennessee.
Yeah, he had a couple drops too as some other drops yep, but some drops on the lst. Speaking of the Washington commanders aforementioned, they are going to travel to Atlanta where they will be underdogs. Two and a half is the number on DK. You're getting anywhere from forty one and a half on DK to forty two on this game over on FanDuel. I feel like Washington to win on the money line is plus one eighteen debro.
This is a as Bogman calls him, Jekyl and Howell situation here where Washington tends to play down to their competition. And that was part of my argument on Thursday night. It's like, look, when Washington starts beating teams they should beat, then I'll be impressed. I'm not impressed as they go and they showed up against the Eagles. I'll be more impressed when they handle their business against the Arizona Cardinals, which they did not really well, and then of course
we know what happened last week. But here you go, they're traveling. They are underdogs in Atlanta. This is where the commanders to me are interesting. Are they interesting to you a little bit?
I'm like, I feel like I'm kind of like being seduced by the plus money, the money one. I feel like, I feel like it's a trap play, Joe. I feel like it's a trap baby, So I'm gonna sidestep the money line for them. The one interesting part here is it as bad as the Washington defense has been, I don't want to sit here and invest in the Atlanta Falcons offense a ton, but the over for the total here does make some sense. Atlanta, there are pressure points
at where you can beat this defense. You can run on them some you can't beat them in the slot. You can beat them with tight ends. We know Washington is gonna be throwing the ball a lot because they've done that at pretty much in every single game. So a lot of these lines are pretty good. I'm staying away from the money line and the spread. I will you can't interest me with the over for the forty one and a half total.
Here, Sam, I want to pitch you a Hollywood script. He ready. The Hollywood script is, Desmond Ritter gets benched in this game, Taylor Heineke comes in against the Washington Commanders and all hell breaks lose.
What do you think about that if yesterday's game against Houston had gone a little differently, I think that's in play. But Desmond Ridder played by far his best game of his career on Sunday.
And eventually I say, bar, Sam, it's a low bar.
It is a low bar, but I think it extended the quote unquote grace period he gets with potentially like being benched. It sounded like going into the game there was no consideration at all of starting Heinike in the game against Houston. So this is a tough one for me again because you're probably buying the Falcons at their
high given what ritterd did this past week. But Washington, again, they played poorly in the first half this past week, but then almost mounted to come back against granted, the Bears, but they did play much better in the second half. So I think there's there's a lot of ways in which game this this game could go. So your Hollywood script not out of the question, But I don't think.
I'm just pitching it to you. I don't want if you want to buy it or not.
It's like one of those things that gets a pilot and then immediately gets cancer.
Anything gets a deal in that stands nowadays, So why not this story?
That's what I think you can end up on like Hulu or something I love who.
My My take on this one too is I'm gonna wait and I'm going to see if the Atlanta Falcons good narrative continues to grow, because if that one eight plus one eighteen starts to become plus one fifty on Washington, I might jump on that because I this is exactly the kind of team that lows you into these false senses of securities week to week where you're like, oh, look, they almost beat the Eagles, let's go. They're gonna beat the Bears. Oh wait, we lost to the Bears at
home on a short week. Gross, Well, then we can't have any confidence in them against the Atlanta Falcons. Oh wait, they just went on the road and beat the Falcons. This reeks of that to me, It just absolutely reeks of him. Another game that I think is fascinating on this slate, Sam, I want to start with you on this one. The Cleveland Brown's coming off of buye. They are five point home underdogs. That defense has been great, the numbers forty and a half. They're plus one eighty
eight on FanDuel. They're gonna host the San Francisco forty nine ers, who looked like a juggernaut against the Dallas Cowboys. They sent them back to Dallas on their horses, hurting, I mean absolutely embarrassed and hurting in that game. But we all know this, right, You know, sometimes these teams coming off these big games here that matter a lot, sometimes there's a bit of a letdown. Letdowns tend to
happen when there's really good defenses. I know the Browns offense is struggle bus, but do you think the Browns defense can keep this game a little closer? Is this more interesting than people realize?
No, not at all. The only thing, the only thing that Cleveland has going for them right now are those narratives. It's the leftdown spot for the forty nine ers. It's them coming off of a bye. But San Francisco has done nothing but obliterate their opponents. They don't have a single game on offense between below zero point one EPA per play, which is an incredibly high mark on a per game basis. The Cleveland defense is good, but we also thought the Dallas defense was good, and look what
San Francisco did to them. They have The San Francisco team has score differentials of twenty three seven versus the Rams eighteen, nineteen and thirty two. They are blowing out their opponents. The Cleveland offense is by far the weakest unit in this game. They've only had a positive EPA per play in their game against Tennessee when they exploited that pass final defense. And I go through each game before looking at the lines and make a line on my own. I had this forty nine ers at seven
point favorites for this game, and thank you. I think, thank you four and a half point favorites on the line right now. So again this the narratives lean towards Cleveland and this is a lower total game. But man, I don't see how this San Francisco team just hiccups right now. They're humming in every ask right at the game.
It seems like you have An Ally and Derek Brown in the same thought process. By the way, San Francisco, right now, in betting Pros, the best odds you can get for them to win the NFC is plus two ten over a FanDuel. It's shrinking. It's at plus one forty over a DraftKings. This is why use the Betting Pros app. It's why you download it, because why would you want to bet plus one forty We can get plus two ten right now. So, de Bro, you seem to be on the same page as Sam.
I'm like, Joe is queuing this up to sit here and maybe be so kind of job. I'm like, I'm not buying it.
My role here on the program, you set up interesting questions for you guys to debate, and maybe there was not that much debate on this one. That's fine. I was like, Sam, don't get seduced by this. Next Monday, I'm gonna be absolutely relentless if this If the San Francisco forty nine ers don't do everything you said, I'm just saying just say.
That's okay.
You could sit here and tell it's a fat I'll I get to come in here and cause chaos and then just that.
Being said, is it a cake walk here? With this number.
You just lock this to you do you lock this four and a half in now at vandal you lock it in right now, set it, forget it. I love what Sam brought up because that was the line in my head. I was like, this line is wrong, absolutely wrong. San Francisco should be favored by six and a half or seven. You need to be betting this now because
I'm telling you that spread is gonna move more. And this money line, I'm not telling I'm not betting the money line, but minus two ten San Francisco should be minus three hundred, minus four hundred, like they should be a lock to beat this team. And I'm gonna put pile on top of the beating. Here, give me the over for the total. And this is just simply San Francisco just putting it on the Browns. I want to see it, and I think it's gonna happen. Man, They're
gonna sit here and beat this spread. They're gonna absolutely.
Put it on this defense.
The other thing, this is why we do the early line show folks, go ahead. Sam.
The other thing I didn't mention is Deshaun Watson did miss their last game before the bye. Obviously have had some time to recoup, but as of Monday morning, he was not at practice, so that is something to monitor. And if if this isson.
He doesn't play, forget it now did the team? Did the team hold him out or did he hold himself out? But either way, I love the point that Sam makes here because as soon as that becomes a more generated narrative out on social media and things, this line is going to move quickly.
Yeah, agreed, All right, let's continue. I'm betting it right now as you're talking.
So man sets it up and bets it. Love it.
I set it up for kind. It's a professional se I want to. But yet, have I not expressed the narrative that could be out there, which is a very It.
Was expressed extremely.
I also expressed the narrative last week about the New Orleans Saints. Andrew Rickson oviently me disagreed. I also won that argument.
Because one of my favorite bets last week was to tease also lining other people's pockets.
I got a nice twenty spot front of me, but.
We but we also teased up when my favorite bets on the Betting Pros video I do every week my top ten bets of the week teasing up the number there, getting the three and a half, or even you get four in New Orleans, all the numbers right, just to get a better plus money on that. If you did that, you cruised. Because the New Orleans Saints abstoually just obliterated the do ENG the Patriots yesterday. They now are two and a half point favorites on the road. Interesting spot
here against the Houston Texans. We've also played very well winning games.
C J.
Stroud poise in the pocket looking good. You're getting forty at Sugarhouse, forty one over at Caesar's. You're getting plus oney t for Houston to win at home. Now, Debro, you're a New Orleans guy. I know sometimes you're tough on your own team, as I am tough on my DOINGLD Patriots a time too. But here you go. This is a fascinating game where all of a sudden, both these teams kind of have good feelings coming into this contest of good momentum. Who comes out victorious?
Here?
Do you see any sort of early value on this line? Because it is pretty close?
Okay, So I would love to tell you that I want to bet Houston at plus money to win at home. The concern that I have with Houston is Tank Dell left with injury. Also, Robert Woods is banged up. This offense is going to be possibly at less than full strength, and New Orleans is a really good defense. They've played out of their mind. So the plus money for the Houston money line is a little bit but I'm a little bit alluring, but I feel like it's more of
a trap play. I think that the most enticing thing for me here is to take the under on the total. This game is going to be slow. Both of these defenses have played pretty good to if not, Houston has been underrated. So if you're gonna tell me New Orleans defense has been playing out of their mind, Houston is operating at possibly less than full strength, It's a close line.
I think that all the things are pointing me towards the under, and then I'm just kind of staying away from everything else here.
All right, Sam, how about you? This is a tight one. Er You see any early value or is this a stay away?
This is a stay away for me for now, But as we get more news on the health of Tank Dell, like Debre mentioned, I'm leaning more towards Houston again. I said the same thing last week, but it's the better quarterback getting the points here. The Saints defense has been impressive, but they faced the Titans, the Panthers, the Packers, the Bucks, and the Patriots, which is not really a murderer's row
of offenses to face. And the Saints offense doesn't have a single game with a positive EPA for play in the game. So I'm going to continue to buy into the Houston Texans until the market treats them like what I think the average team that they are. I mean, they're not the bottom of the barrel team like everyone thought going into the season. They've played well above expectations, and I don't think the market has adjusted quite enough for that yet.
All right, let's move on to the next one here. Oh boy, let's go Carolina Panthers zero to five taking on the juggernaut Miami Dolphin offense. They are four and one. The number on this one is already fourteen. The other thing that I put with the New Orleans game was again one of my favorite bets of last week as well, Miami at the twelve and a half against the Giants. Why because the Giants are terrible and Miami can't be stopped right now. I know Buffalo stopped them. It was
more of a detour than a stop. Okay, Miami forty eight and a half right now is the total? Forty seven and a half over on Bette Rivers, but forty eight and a half on FanDuel Carolina Panthers are the upset. We're not even to talk about plus six fifty. So it's just a matter of fourteen Sam, Is it too big of a number? No, it takes a lot. I don't.
It's a good it's a really good number.
It's I think it's spot on. This is one where I don't have an early lean for. I think the number is right on. Fourteen points is is a lot. I think Miami could cover it convincingly. But the Panther's offense came back a little bit towards the end of the Detroit game. Not that they were going to get close to winning the game, but they put the pressure on a little bit and made a couple offensive drives. So it's it's tough. Miami kept the Giants in the
game from a spread perspective this past week. So I'm saying away, I think this game is just gonna it's going to be a blowout, but fourteen points is a lot.
Fourteen points is a lot. However, the Carolina Panthers inability Derek to like, the biggest deficit of the Panthers is what this year, right, throwing the ball deep, expanding the offense, everything, well everything, but that's a that's a big part of it. Right, So if they do fall behind, my point of this number of still being in play right now is because well I don't see them being able to catch up. That's the probably literally and figuratively catch up in this game.
So I'm actually still comfortable with this even though it's a huge number. Do you see that also being a problem for Carolina where if they get behind or should I say when they get behind, that they can't claw their way back into it because big plays is just not something this offense can do.
I would have said that more convincingly if I just didn't see the Dolphins show a little like allow the Giants to have a little bit of life.
Uh now, yeah, that past six was a big thing.
Like that was another one, like you take that pick six and that mojo away from that. No, that's fair. That's the moment where that game is over in quarter two two? All right, Well, we got to make sure we come out of the half and assert our dominance again. Like if you take that that seven away from the Giants and give it to the Dolphins, there, game over in quarter two.
That's fair, that's fair.
I think where I sit with this game is if you really believe that Miami truck sticks Carolina, then bet the over on the total. That's where I sit with it, because I don't want anything to do with the spread.
I'm with you.
I don't know if the Carolina Panthers have enough punch to CounterPunch the Miami Dolphins.
But what we've seen out of the Miami Dolphins, they can hang a forty spot. They could carry this total over all by their lonesome this week.
So as much as I question about how much Carolina can CounterPunch, we saw the Giants be able to do that a little bit last week.
If that door is at.
Least swung open just a little bit, you're talking about, the Panthers showed some life versus the Lions. That passing attack. Hell, the Miami Dolphins, their offense alone could put up forty in this game. For me, the most enticing bet for this is to hit the over forty seven and a half and the rest of it. I want to stay away the obviously know there's nothing for the money line, and I think the spread is spot on, and.
Joe forget everybody they're still oh, so go ahead.
Good to your point about Carolina crawling back. They allow the fifth highest pressure eight on Bryce ru Young. The Dolphins defense generates the sixth most pressure on defense, So if Caroline is forced to pass it, it's not going to be pretty.
Say fourteen doesn't look so bad, now, does it? Gentlemen? You know what else does it look bad? Is you winning some free stuff like at Jackson Smith and JIGBA Jersey. By the way, all you gotta do is make picks at the NFL contest. We've got running Bettingpros dot Com
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see if you're right. So go join the NFL contest today again bettingpros dot Com slash NFL Contest win free stuff for just picking games. This one's really interesting. Debro on the DFS show on Friday. Here on BP you
mentioned about the Jamar Chase Joe Burrow restoration project. Well, now they're at home against the Seattle Seahawks coming off thereby forty six is this number on fandal forty six and a half on DK so generally in that same spot plus one thirty six for Seattle on the money line right now you're getting Seattle at plus three Cincinnati at minus two and a half. So do you see any early value on this one? Do you think the Bengals are just back now?
I think the Bengals are back, and I think that if you're looking at this spread, I don't think it's given them enough credence. I think that this is looking at the first few weeks of the Bengals offense.
This is looking at the first.
Few weeks of what we've seen out of the Bengals this spread, I mean, they're only favorite about two and a half. This spread should be more like four and a half.
Five.
I think that this is not giving them, especially at home, and what we've seen out of Seattle, their defense has been a pushover. Now we're talking about Joe Burrow looking more like Joe Burrow, and whether if we get news that t Higgins comes back also, this is gonna move in the favor of the Bengals. I don't have a lot of interest in the total or the money lines in this game, but for the spread, I think the Bengals cover this.
Sam, these lines feel about right to me unless you really believe in the rebirth of the Bengals, which case you jump on this two and a half now and you roll with it. Is that where you are, Sam.
I'm a little bit more apprehensive. I struggle to say the Bengals are back after their performance against a bottom five defense in the Arizona Cardinals. The concern I have ram.
Seattle's a bottom five defense too, like they can't pressure the quarterback at this point they are pretty side.
Of Daniel Jones.
They cannot pressure it to your corner, back to your corner, come out singing like Sam, Sam, What do you think about that too? Seattle also lines up in that general vane though in terms of ranking.
But I think they have they have more defensive playmakers. They're they're coming off of the buy. The issue I have with Seattle is their left tackle Charles Charles Cross missed Monday Night Football and their left guard, Damian Lewis was carted off. Their right guard Phil Haynes was left early with a calf injury. So that's that's what we call a cluster injury. And if that offensive line is missing some of its starters, then it's it's going to be a struggle no matter how good the the Bengals
offense is playing. So I think this is what I'm staying away from right now. I think it'll be a really great game, to be fair. So I don't know, it's just it is really tough again for me to see the Bengals doing this again after the defense that they faced at And I get I get it, and I get the Seahawks.
Returning Trey Henchterson returning to all the You know the points you're making about the offensive line, you saw how different that you know, the front there's the pass rush was for the Cincinnati Bengals when Hendrickson was back, and he was back yesterday and he made a difference in that game without a doubt. Next game on this late here, Indianapolis at Jacksonville again Gardner Minshew playing in this one. They are five point underdogs on the road against Jacksonville.
Forty four and a half is the who excuse me? Forty five and a half is the number of FanDuel forty five at Sugarhouse? Plus one ninety two for the Colts.
Can the Colts pull off this upset here in your opinion because plus one ninety two is a really good number here, Sam, and the Colts keep winning games in Jacksonville just kind of, I don't know, just kind of barely escapes to feel like every single week when they do have wins and then the losses, they look like a team that's still kind of a really big work in progress. What are your thoughts on this one? Real quick?
This is another super interesting one because we have Jacksonville coming back from London after spending two straight weeks there, so they're probably they probably have adjusted to that time zone, by now and now we're going to have to reacclimate to I guess Eastern time zone as they come back, and that's something we just haven't seen before. And so that said, I do think this should be another opportunity
for Trevor Lawrence to carve up the Colts defense. They the Jaguars allow pressure at the sixth lowest rate in Indianapolis gets pressure at the seventh lowest rate. So I'm taking the Jags here, but it is it is something that again it will be fascinating to see how that potential not layover in London, but extended layover in London
impacts them. I will say, I think this is another opportunity to bet the under on Jonathan Taylor rushing yards because the Jaguars rushing defense has been phenomenal so far this year.
It is a two headed attack though with Zach Moss as well Debro the secondary here of the Jaguars. You know, they give up some big plays here. We've seen that. We saw it in London on Sunday morning. We saw that. So in your opinion here, do you see any value on the clat side of this game or are you on the Jaguars favorite side.
I could see this game going either way. To be honest, guys, I think that Jacksonville has shown us that they could be a letdown team. Indy has also shown that they have a lot of life on offense. So honestly, I'm staying away from the spread and the money lines in this game. Give me the over for the total in this game, and we've already seen this play out.
They put up fifty two combined points in Week one. This total right now, I think should be more in the forty six and a half range forty seven ish. Indy's operating at the fastest neutral pace in the NFL. Jacksonville can put up points versus this secondary, So however you want to spice up this matchup, I think the pace is going to be pretty good, if not very good, in this game if Jacksonville can keep up, and you're
looking at an Indie offense that can push Jacksonville. So not only that, we've seen this runout before, and with Gardner Minshew now playing, I think they're gonna be passing volume. So the most intriguing spot for this game is the over on the total because I just feel like the line is.
Wrong, all right, let's move on to the next game here, battle of one and four teams. Minnesota Vikings head to Chicago. Minnesota three point favorites in this one. I'm sure you know once upon a time when this number opened, it was a lot different. Now it's just three forty six and a half FanDuel forty seven at Sugarhouse. If you like the Bears at home, it's plus one forty four deep, Brod, you seen the early value on this line.
Oh help me, I'm going to take the money line for the Chicago Bears. I think this is a game where we could see the Bears stack back to back wins. They are definitely feeling themselves coming off of that win versus the Commanders. Justin Fields looks like he is in his bag Minnesota. Again, we're talking about a team that do they have Justin Jefferson.
Their run game is not good.
Chicago's defense might not be great, but they have been a very good run defense. So I think a lot of parts and pieces point two. It's Chicago at home. I'm ready for a Vikings letdown. Give me the Bears money line plus money right now.
Well, Vikings letdown would be the end of the Vikings season here. Do you think that's what we're looking at, Sam.
End of the season. I mean, I sure hope not. It's this is a game I don't really have much of a read on. I really don't expect Justin Jefferson to play. Kevin O'Connell was pretty pessimistic about his hamstring injury following the game, and I think that's I mean, he's probably the second most important non quarterback to a spread. So it's Vikings still have some playmakers on offense that could give the Bears defense some fits. But it's I can see this going a number of different ways.
To your point, Sam, If we get the Jefferson news and this total drops, that kind of leads me to wait later in the week. And I know we're talking about early line bets, but I could see easy scenarios with this total drop some and then I'm more intrigued on the over.
Yeah, I don't know, makes sense.
I think that logic could be.
Yeah, well I have to wait. Look, this is one where again, if you like it, you want to jump on it real quick here you can. But there's a lot here with the Justin Jefferson impact of this game that's a guy that moves the needle. New England at Las Vegas. Gonna keep this one simple for you guys, all right, it's the New England is three point underdogs on the road as they should be, maybe even more, Las Vegas minus two and a half. I know it's
Las Vegas. They're not great, but forty three is the number plus one for for the Newland Patriots for the upset. No thank you, I would tease this one right now with Vegas past the three and a half. Heck, I'll even go to four and a half on this one. Sam. To me, the New England secondary has nothing. You cannot stop DeVante Adams with nothing. As long as he is healthy enough to play again. I know that's questionable'll see how he comes out of tonight's game. But to me,
this is easy. The Patriots are one of the worst teams in football. Their secondary has been obliterated. Matthew Judon is done. They have no offense, they have no pass rush, they have no secondary. Why is this number so small, Sam, I'm.
Sure it's the injury concerns. Because for me, as long as Las Vegas comes out of the game tonight healthy, the minus two and a half is a huge value. The Raiders offense is probably the best unit on in this game. The Patriots defense, like you said, is getting torn apart with injuries. Their offense can't move the balls. It's confusing. Maybe it's the short week for the Raiders too, is contributing to this not being higher. But I like Vegas in this game.
All right, So that's two for two, Debro, You want to sweep this, yeah, I would take Vegas. And also I'm intrigued to take the over on the total here, and I know that sounds gross and people.
Could look at this total. People could look at this total and say.
Okay, well, New England's not putting up any points, why do you care about this? Okay, Vegas is not a good defense, and both of these teams are quietly top ten in neutral pace, So you're looking at a matchup with two pretty bad defenses. A home game for Vegas. I could see them putting up points here and really good neutral pace of the play volume I think could
carry this over the total. So honestly, yeah, you can give me Vegas covering the spread, and I'm intrigued on taking the over for the forty two and a half total.
All right, let's run through the next couple of games here, Detroit at Tampa. Look right now, you're getting Tampa plus three and a half home underdogs, which is intriguing. Forty five and a half is the number plus one fifty on the money line for Tampa. But Debro with all the uncertainty with the health of everybody in the Lions, I just feel like this one's too early for me to get a beat on. Do you agree?
Yeah, I agree. I'm staying away from the spread. If anything, I think the total is off on this one. We've seen Detroit still be able to put up points. You can run, you can pass on the Buccaneers. The Buccaneers have have fielded a much better offense than I thought they would coming into the season. So again, maybe I'm just being positive here on a Monday morning. But give me the over for.
The total of forty four over at DK right now and pass that.
I'm moving on Sam any value here, like if you like Tampa at home underdog situation coming off of by Is this a trap game for the Lions?
No?
Again, not a trap game. You think all these road favorites are in these trap games? No, Detroit is going to come in handle their business. They get pressure at a thirty nine percent rate despite blitzing at just a twenty one percent rate.
I don't you mean road favorites like the Ravens.
No, I mean road favorites like the I think both.
That was just fun. Well, No, I'm just having a good time with you there.
I think they both go into these games and take care of business.
All right, Let's see if Arizona and the Los Angeles Rams can handle their business. The Rams five and a half point favorites. Forty seven and a half is the total for this one plus two twenty five for Arizona. Sam, you saw a cop, you saw Pooka Nakua. This is a much easier assignment this week here in terms of defensive front, you'll have to deal with the Eagles. Can the Rams cover this five and a half?
I think so. Surprisingly, this was the Rams' worst passing game efficiency wise this past week against Philadelphia, but I think another week with Cooper Cup that offense is going to be humming against a Cardinals defense that cannot generate any pressure. Is twenty eighth in passing EPA per play and thirty first in pass success rate. I think the Rams again are going to take care of business here.
Actually, this number has moved to six. I see it right in here already. So you have the best number now is six. D Bro, are we jumping on this before it gets any bigger?
Yeah?
Jump on it now, absolutely. I think the Rams cover this, and I say that, and I'm also willing to sit here and take the under on the total. The Rams defense has been surprisingly really good, and with the Cardinals, zach Ertz is a shell of his former self now, James Connor is down, Josh Jobbs looks like he might have turned back into a pumpkin. I think that the ram could run away with this game and pull this to the under.
The Jets will host the Philadelphia Eagles, who are still undefeated, one of two undefeated teams. The Jets are six and a half point underdogs at home on DK forty. Two and a half to forty is the number depending on where you look, the Jets plus two thirty here, So Debro, I mean to me, this one's easy. Like you can like the Jets defense all you want, I don't think they can keep pace with the Philadelphia Eagles on the offensive side of your thoughts.
Jets, I mean the Eagles cover. If this was the Eagles at home versus the Jets. Get the home favoritism here a little bit, this spread should be wider than what it is, So I'll take the Eagles to cover.
Sam. Are you in the same mind too, where maybe the Jets are getting too much respect on their two and three record right now against this Eagles team.
I think so. I mean the Eagles are still one of the better rushing teams. We saw Denver be able to have some success on the ground against the Jets this past week, so I check.
Out did two two weeks ago. Let's not forget that.
Also, yeah, I think they'll be able to move the ball easily.
This is a fascinating one now because it's a huge number and also now the calculus has changed. The Buffalo Bills are fourteen and a half point home favorites against the New York Giants. Sure the Giants are terrible, but interesting pieces here. Matt Malano done for the year. Uh Tredevi's white done for the year. It's a big piece has gone for this Buffalo defense. I know the offense has been dreadful here, but if Saquan should be back this week? Is it interesting to jump on this line early?
Here?
Forty five is the total forty six and a half at Sugarhouse, forty five at FanDuel. I'm not saying the Giants can win, but can they cover this Sam?
I don't think so. I mean, I don't know what the status of Daniel Jones is at this point.
If this plays, I seriously Dowdy plays, I.
Doubt he does too. I think Tyrod Taylor might have gotten hurt at the end of the game two, or at least something happened to him, So I I don't know Saquon Barkley can be back. That doesn't move the needle at all for me. I think the Bills should hit. I'm much more confident in the Bills covering this fourteen points than the Dolphins covering against the Panthers.
All Right, so you see this one the same thing where it's just like Buffalo and a romp despite the injuries, Debra.
I think the spread is spot on. I really want to kind of stay away from it, even though I think if you want to go attack it that way, then that's fine. I'm more intrigued by the forty five total that I'm looking at right now, over on Fandle, I would much rather just take the over for that assuming and I say this with the assumption that Tyrod plays.
I think the Giants can push back enough on this depleted Buffalo defense, and Josh Allen is going to have himself a day, so I think the Bills will carry this over the total.
The offense carries it over the totals supposed to the defensive things that are missing? All right, last one here, by the way, can we just get the Giants off my primetime screen? Please? Can we stop this? For the love of God? Dallas going to the Los Angeles Chargers Britain the National game again. It's another Sunday night football game with the Jets or Giants.
What do we Oh Joe, nobody you turn your TV on for the game.
This is what I do. I have to watch. It pains me, I know, I know. That's the problem with the Amazon games too, is I can't DVR them. It tries to me crazy. But anyway, Dallas Cowboys, uh licking their wounds, go to Los Angeles here to play the Chargers. Chargers coming off of bye there two and a half point dogs at home forty eight and a half is the number plus one sixteen for the Chargers to win outright,
So it's real simple, de Bro. Does Dallas bounce back or do the Chargers continue to pile on this this Dallas team after they're reeling from that loss in San fran.
Chargers at home, close spread plus money.
Let's go Chargers, roll. I thought that you were setting me up for the Dallas Cowboys. Let's go h Sam Chargers roll.
Dallas has looked like a shell of itself on offense, and I get that they're playing the forty nine Ers and this is not the forty nine Ers defense, but also Chargers are going to put up some points against this Dallas defense. Losing Trevon Diggs was huge. It was it has been huge for them huge.
Sam. Chargers don't usually handle their business in these kind of situations.
Your thoughts, I'm on the opposite side. I think you are getting a chance to buy Dallas at their absolute low. They had by far their worst offensive output of the season last night. I think this is a perfect get right spot for them against the defense that ranks bottom eight in every possible efficiency metric. Seems like justin Herbert will play. It sounded like he would have been able to play had they had a game this past week. But I do think it limits their playbook a little bit.
It sounded like, if I remember Correestley, he had like one non shotgun snap after he hurt his hand. So I like Dallas minus two here. I think again, the Chargers offense might still be struggling to figure out what they do without Mike Williams. So I like Dallas here. I think they can can take care of business tonight next.
You get there. Yeah, minus one and a half right now. I just see on VP two this wow change too, So I have interest that, so there would have a little bit of change on that. So again, this is why you stay up to date with the Betting Pros app Derek Brown, thanks for joining us today, Pinch Hitting. Don't forget to catch the DFS show with myself and Derek Brown every single Friday on our audio version of Betting Pros wherever you get your podcasts, and check us
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