Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place your bets. So this is meet Joey Paid Joe Pisapia. Week three is just about concluded. A few games left here a Monday night. You can catch us by PM Eastern every single Monday live on the YouTube channel breaking those games down on Monday and Thursday night myself at Scott Bogman. But this year this is about looking ahead. And man, oh man, I'm depressed. It was a bad
week for me. I is terrible this week. I'm gonna take all the l's here because I thought there was some really good things here. I was very happy about outside the Chiefs. That's like the only thing that went right for me. God bless you Taylor Swift for making sure that you had Travis Kelsey and Patrick Mahomes motivated. Hopefully these two gentlemen had better weeks than I do. We could take it through a good week four. As we continue on, Pat fitz Morris joins us, Sam Hoppin
joins is. Of course you could check out all our amazing content at Betting Pros. Sammy Boy repping the Green Bay Packers gear. Feeling pretty good about that Jordan Love Homecoming. So I think you were in a good spot here to win this division because it ain't gonna be the bet and it certainly doesn't feel like the Vikings can win anything Zam.
Yeah, we were talking about this pre show.
I do think the Vikings still do have a chance because they haven't played anyone in the division yet. They have some opportunities to make up some ground with those games, and they've just gotten terribly unlucky. I'll talk about it a little bit later, but with the turnovers, it's just been bad and you would expect some of that to regress a little bit in season, even though everyone's talking about how well they did on one side in one
score games last year versus this year. So certainly looking good for our Green Bay Packers though.
Yeah, that under came in on that Charger game with the Minnesota Vikings. One under that did not come in was the Miami Dolphins.
Fits.
I mean, they scored enough points here for several games like you're gonna took the Jets game, combined it with another game and still probably not caught up to the Miami Dolphins. I can't imagine going forward. I think it's going to be a real Dolle year. This offense could continue to just take off and be something very special. But that was a show of shows, bad showing for
the Denver Broncos. But I think the big takeaway is Miami's offense without Jaalen Waddle even was stunningly good yesterday fits historically.
So it was Joe, And credit to you. I think you were on the Dolphins last week on this show. I believe you like them, and I just I wasn't really interested in that game at all, and I just like this. This Broncos defense was actually good last year.
Or like a bump the march at least.
So it's hard to understand what exactly has happened here. But it's going to be a test of the you know, mediocre offense versus the mediocre defense when the Bears and Broncos get together this week, and mediocre is really being kind quite frankly, I mean, this is yeah, So it will be interesting to see what gives in that game.
The Denver Broncos the first team in NFL history to give up three hundred and fifty yards in the air and on the ground. Congratulations Bronco. I mean, somebody's got to get fired today for something. I don't know who it is, but you know this is usually when heads roll. But look, before we get going, don't forget everybody. We've got free stuff for you here Petting Pros So if you haven't already, make sure you subscribe to the channel.
Drop a comment below, give us your favorite picks of week four that you like in the early look ahead, and you just might win a James Cook autograph jersey. Thanks to us here Petting pro So. Again, subscribe, drop the comment and click that belt to it goes Dings. You know if you're the winner of the big James Cook Jersey. Let's move on here to Thursday night football. Your Green Bay Packers gentlemen are going to host the Detroit Lions. Speaking of Indivision matchups, this one is real spicy.
You've got the Green Bay Packers two point home underdogs. Forty five and a half is the number at Sugarhouse right now. Forty four and a half. You can get that over on Caesars. And if you like the Packers to win at home in that dog situation, on the money line right now, FanDuel's got the best number plus one oh six. So let's take us through here. In your opinion, Fits, is this line correct number one and number two? Do you see any early value?
I do think the line is correct, Joe. And this does feel like a battle for NFC North supremacy. We know the Bears aren't going to be battling for anything, and the Vikings, Yeah, maybe they've had some bad luck, but that defense is pretty legitimately terrible.
So this is also a Packers.
Revenge game after the Lions knocked them out of the playoffs in the final game of the twenty twenty two regular season. So Jared Goff has made four starts against the Packers since joining the Lions. Lost his first one, has won the last three. I don't know that I like either side here, Joe, but I sort of like the under Both Lions Packers games played under last season, and the Packers continue to be very slow paced offensively under Matt Lafleur.
Yeah, especially with the Thursday night game. I kind of lean where you are right now in this one of the under Sam. What's your early instinct of any on this line.
I actually took the Packers money line this morning. I do think there is a little bit of value. I don't think that Detroit is three points better than green Bay on a neutral field, which is what this line is indicating. The Packers are dealing with a ton of health concerns. Jayira Alexander was out yesterday. Defandre Campbell left early. The left side of the offensive line is nowhere to
be seen right now. But they've still allowed just a twenty one and a half percent pressure rate, which is great. It's second in the league. Green Bay still doesn't have a game with all of Baktyari, Aaron Jones, and Christian Watson playing together this year, and I do think that they might have held some of those guys out on Sunday knowing that they had the Thursday night game against a divisional opponent at home, and so I think at least two of those three guys will be active on
Thursday night. Green Bay's been sort of living off of explosive plays so far this year. They have a pretty low success rate but a fairly high EPA per play. But Detroit allows the sixth highest rate of explosive pass plays on defense, so I think this is another opportunity for green Bay to steal another victory on Thursday Night.
It's a great point about Watson and Aaron Jones too. If they are active, this is the time to jump on that money line number right now, because that could very well be the case of why they were just holding them a little bit longer. Because this is the game you have to win. This is the indivision contest that means the most in the standings anyway. So let's get to the next one here. Jacksonville Jaguars stick a big fat l against the Houston Texans. Ooh wee at
home they are now one and two. Atlanta Falcons Cinderella is finally got lost themselves. So both these teams coming off losses a week three. Right now, we got Jacksonville your standard minus three right now at home. That feels about right as we're trying to figure out the identity of these two teams. Forty five and a half is the number four The under here at Bette Rivers forty five Arena Hafock, FanDuel. If you like the over, and then if you like the money line, bet three sixty five.
As the Falcons who went outright at plus one forty five. When you look at this line, Sam, what do you see?
I see the line giving you an opportunity to buy Trevor Lawrence at his lowest. I mean, he has not played exceptionally the first three weeks of the season. Played okay against Houston in Week one, not Houston, Indianapolis, excuse me, and then didn't fare farewell against the Chiefs, and then didn't play well this past week either, And I think they're sort of realizing that they can't just throw the ball at Calvin Ridley twelve plus times a game and win that way. They need to get some of these
other playmakers involved. But Trevor Lawrence is still a much better quarterback than Desmond Rheder. He Ritter had a negative fourteen point two percent completion percentage over expectation last week, which is not especially against Detroit defense that again we just talked about hasn't been great defending the pass, and it currently looks like this.
Is shaded towards Atlanta.
I wonder if we see this get down to two and a half, Jacksonville in their home away from home, playing in London, so they have that bit of familiarity as well, So I'd be taking Jacksonville with the points here.
Pat Sam makes a good point here. This is the way to buy Trevor Lawrence at the lowest point. Are you buying him at this lowest point here this week?
I'm really not, Joe. Yes, the Jaguars have a big quarterback advantage here, but the Falcons and Arthur Smith generally do a pretty good job of hiding Desmond Ridder in that offense, and at least that's certainly what they're trying to do each and every week.
Like I see these two teams.
Of roughly equal caliber, and I was kind of surprised to see the Jaguars favored by what three points in this one? Let me ask you, guys, what do you think we know that Jaguars don't have a standard home field advantage in this one, with the game being in Wembley Stadium, what would you say their advantage is as far as an operational advantage? So far, they played nine London games, this will be their tenth. They're four and
five so far. It's got to be worth something, but probably not worth the standard two points for home field advantage.
That's a really good question, Pat, I mean, I think it's worth a little bit. That being said, Sam, do you see any advantage of the fact that they have been sort of like the default London team these last five six years.
I certainly think so. I don't think it's as big of an advantage as people might think it is, because there's so much science around. You know, when to sleep, how to you know, recover from jet lag. And these are the best of the best athletes who know how to do all of this sort of stuff. And it's not like nobody in Atlanta is, you know, just not familiar with traveling overseas. I do think there is a little.
Bit to it.
I mean I would make it, you know, maybe close to half a point if that it right now, But it's I think I still think Jacksonville is going to get to win here, all right.
Moving on to the next game here on the slate two for a time, we've got Pittsburgh and Houston. Now, Houston coming off their first victory.
CJ.
Stroud looking good, the passing game looking good, and Eco Collins tanked out. We just talked about all those guys in the Waiver Wire podcast on Fantasy pro fits. So forty one is the number one FanDuel. Houston, of course is a four point underdog at home, which makes sense now Pittsburgh minus three on DK's what you can get right now. But you know that Pittsburgh secondary patt has not played well this year. I think we can all agree on that. Yes, second, after the quarterback, that is
their saving grace on defense and offensively. I still work in progress, I mean still trying to figure out their identity. They had some moments, they had enough moments where they squeaked by last night. But what is your takeaway of any from last night, what we saw from the Pittsburgh Steelers and what you see in this early line here.
Yeah, if you can keep TJ.
Watt and his friends off your quarterback, you can do business against this Pittsburgh secondary. And I think the Texans passing game has been much more advanced than we thought it was gonna be.
C J.
Stroud has been pretty pretty terrific so far. The Steelers might not be one of the powers of the AFC, but they have picked themselves up off the deck pretty nicely after that embarrassing home loss to the forty nine Ers in Week one. And the Texans they're not pushovers. I think this line is about right. I generally love home dogs, but I'm not sure I can get behind the Texans as a home dog against the Steelers.
All right, Sam, taking a look at this line here for you. Fitz mentioned keeping Watt off of you is important, but this offensive line has had a lot of injury issues here to open the season. Do you think the health and talented the offensive line can keep Watt all of ce J Stroud?
I think so. I think Houston is for real. I mean c J.
Strout is making throws that make it seem like he should have been the number one overall pick in the draft this past year. I mean, he's playing phenomenally.
Again.
You mentioned the playmakers that they have, you know, on the Pittsburgh offense side, it's just gruesome. I mean, I know that they played San Francisco and Cleveland, but they are just down bad historically in EPAPRI plays, success rate, you know, all of these advanced metrics, and I just don't think that giving Naj Harris the ball is really
an effective strategy, even against Houston. So I think you're getting the better quarterback with the points here at home for Houston again, a defense that has been able to stifle some pretty good offenses so far this year. So I'm taking Houston with the points especially. I think I got him at plus three and a half this morning, which if you can get it on that side of three, is huge for me.
The Los Angeles Rams are going to travel to Indianapolis. We'll see how the Rams perform tonight, but in the meantime, we hope that we're getting Anthony Richardson back here for the Colts. The Colts stole a victory away from the Baltimore Ravens on the road, a huge win for this team. They are now two and one. Forty five and a half is the number on this one. Obviously, it's practically a pick him, and understandably why I guess a lot of us to do whether or not you think Richardson
plays and how big of an impact he makes. Right now, plus one and a half is where the Colts are at home. Sam, do you want to bet this line now or do you want to wait for more clarity when it comes to the quarterback situation.
Definitely want to wait. These are two teams that I just like can't get a read on so far. It's because they were expected to be pretty bad going into the season, and they've played competent, above average football at certain points so far this season. I do think you know that Gardner Minshew didn't play half bad this past week against a pretty good Ravens defense. So I don't think the line really changes a ton whether it's Minshew
or Richardson. But I do think that there's some more variability you're going to get with Richardson under center that could lead me to wanting the Rams in this situation.
Pat, the forty five at DK right now you're getting is intriguing to me because if Richardson plays the explosiveness he carries, I think the over is something you can actually look for in this game.
What do you think That's what I want to play. I don't want to play either side. I mean, we get this fun matchup of two teams, so we thought we're going to be lousy, but have turned out to be like plucky and very entertaining to watch unexpectedly.
But yeah, I like the over a lot. Here. We've seen the Colts play.
At a breakneck offensive pace under Shane Steichen, Like that is how they want to play. That's going to be very friendly to overs, I think. And the Colts they have a veteran slot corner in Kenny Moore, but their outside cornerbacks are very inexperienced, and I think Matthew Stafford might be able to take advantage of that. I think there are gonna be points.
In this game. Joe, Yeah, I tend to agree with that. Good Joe. You mentioned the explosive nature of Anthony Richardson. I believe, if I remember correctly, he only has two pass attempts more than twenty yards downfield so far this season, which is kind of different than people would have expected coming into this season given how how much he was launching the ball at Florida. But I do think Stiken has been setting him up to get some easy completions and build is confident.
Yeah, I think the I think you're one hundred percent right, and Stiken's a great offensivend I think we've already seen that in Philly for those last few years, and it's also well known around the league. A lot of league people talk about, like Stichen's that guy that people are very excited to see get that head coaching job and what he can do with Richardson. But Richardson's ability to make plays with his legs, those are the ones that really, all of a sudden, you know you got somebody you
know you're in the red zone. It's third and eight, and next thing you know, he runs for a touchdown from the eighteen yard line like like that. That's the kind of stuff and you saw it before he had the concussion. That's backbreaking stuff for the opposing defenses, but also for totals, because that's stuff that just should not happen, but it does when you have guys like Anthony Richardson with a ball in their hands. So I'm kind of where.
Bad is too.
I think you leave this one to the coin flip. It is speaking of bad teams though, by the way, you kind of mentioned teams that we don't know who they are, haven't played. Well, how about the Minnesota Vikings and the Carolina Panthers, everybody. How about the winless ball here? Now, somebody theoretically has to win. I guess they could tie, but we're going to get the red rifle again this week.
So Caroline, of course, three point underdogs at home, as we would expect them to be, Minnesota's defense, not getting a lot of credit as they should not. Forty four and a half is the number for this one. If you like the Panthers to get their first victory, well, you can get it plus one forty at Caesars Fits. You know, the Vikings were handed many opportunities. They could not cash in on those opportunities. The defense is dreadful.
I know Caroline is not a good football team. Theoretically on pay, Minnesota should handle them, but they're only getting the three points here. Do you think that Minnesota can finally pull themselves up by the haunches and do something here and win this game decisively by more than three points?
They can, But I do like a money line bat on Carolina at plus one, you know, a home under, especially if Andy Dalton plays like with Andy Dalton starting, Yes, I mean we saw Andy Dalton complete thirty four or fifty eight passes. They turn Andy Dalton loose against a bad Seattle defense that was missing Tarik Woollen, and now he's going to be turned loose against a very bad Minnesota defense. I like the Panthers in the money line, and I like the over here, like I think we're
going to see a lot of offense. The Minnesota defense is not good, but Minnesota's offense is very good. They're gonna put points up themselves.
Sam I was very much on Minnesota this past week I did not think they were the team that was gonna come out winless. They did. I don't know if I'm ready to learned to love again in week four. This game, to me right now is terrifying, but Pat seem very confident Carolina's abilities to maybe pull one out of the hat. Do you see that same path to victory for the Panthers.
I am once again on the other side of fits here.
I mentioned at.
The top of the show that Minnesota has just been snake bitten by turnovers. Nearly a quarter of their offensive drives have ended in turnovers. They have nine total turnovers this season. Carolina defense could be without Frankie Louvu and Xavier Woods, who both left the game early on Sunday. Minnesota's offense is still exceptionally good. I mean, they have Justin Jefferson, they have Jordan Addison, they have TJ. Hockinson. Like this offense is exceptional. They have a ten point
eight percent explosive passwraight at second in the league. I already took the over in this game as well. I think this could be a shootout. So I'm on the same side as fits there. But I just I think these teams can can score a bunch of points and their defenses aren't going to be doing much to get in the way of that.
All right, some quarterback updates still yet to come in this next game, because we have the New Orleans Saints with Derek Carr. They are two to one now. They did lose that game to the Green Bay Packers, so much of the happiness of my co hosts here now. Derek Carr came away with a sprain day seed joints, so he's probably gonna miss a few weeks. I've had
that injury myself. It's it'll take a couple of weeks for him to get back, but he should be able to play again this season, which means is probably gonna be Jameis Winston. Now, the Saints are three point favorites at home to Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay obviously you get to play this evening against the Philadelphia Eagles, so we'll see what comes out of that game. But forty one is the number you're getting at Sugarhouse, forty and a half at DK, so we're kind of in that same vein.
If you like Tampa for the upset plus one forty five, you can get that over at Sugarhouse, Sam, when you're looking at this one, and I mean, I feel like Winston's been inept. I think that's the best way to put it this point. Like, you know, New Orleans had that game basically in the third quarter that injury happened and all just fell apart for them. They should theoretically win this football game, but Tampa has shown that they've been a little pluckier than we think they would be.
Do you think this is a perfect trap game for the Saints.
I think this is going to be an extremely low scoring game. Both defenses are currently top eight in EPA per play it allowed early down success rate, passing success rate, So I think these teams are going to struggle to move the ball again with two quarterbacks that we both I think we all see as below average in Baker
Mayfield and Jamis Winston. So I'd be looking to take Tampa Bay with the points because again, in these low scoring games, it's going to be a lot closer and getting potentially three three and a half points, I think Tampa Bay's offense has been good enough to keep them in their games.
Pat your thoughts here on the Buccaneers, So I'd say, of so far played well above my expectations. We'll see what happens against a real football team in the tonight. So now we have a little perspective. Maybe beating the Vikings opening week wasn't as oppressive as we thought it was. So Tampa is the underdog year. But with the backup quarterback, is this game a little closer? Maybe? Perhaps in your mind.
I don't know what to make of the Buccaneers offense yet, Joe. With Baker Mayfield doing well against the Vikings and Bears, like, we can't consider that as counting for much. It'll be interesting to see how he does against an Eagles defense that allowed I think like one hundred and seventy nine passing yards per game on average in twenty twenty two. So yeah, this game is really a hard one to peg. I mean, we had the Adam Thielen ball. Now we've
got the Jamis Winston ball. And Winston adds this air of unpredictability to this game. I mean, this is the guy who was a thirty to thirty quarterback the last time we saw him as a full time starter thirty three touchdowns in twenty nineteen with the Buccaneers thirty interceptions. I mean he could go nuclear and torch the Buccaneers defense. He could commit five turnovers. We don't know. Like Sam, if you forced me to play it, I'd probably play
the under. But I it's a pretty low number, So I don't think I'm gonna play that either.
I'm just gonna stay away.
I think that that might be a good a good practice there. But you know that total, that forty one, I mean, that is a low number here. You know, when you start scratching the surface of that the thirties, that's when you know that Vegas is saying, hey, this is not gonna be a fun game for the daily
fantasy or for some other things too. And I don't want to hear about Winston revenge games because he's been in that division forever now, so he's in a backup there for the Saints or a starter at times when called upon. The Philadelphia Eagles are going to host the Washington Commanders. This Indivision matchup will take place in Philadelphia. The Eagles are seven point favorites as of now over on DraftKings. If you like the upset here of the
Washington Commanders, it's plus two to seventy five. The number here, the total is forty four and a half fits when you're looking at this one here, this feels like your normal sort of situation line here. If the Eagles go out and Monday night and smash here, do you think this line moves any bit?
I do, which is why I've already grabbed the Eagles and locked them in at seven points. I'm betting them confidently, even on the short week of rest. Sam Howell turned to absolute jelly against a good Buffalo Bell's pass defense, and the Eagles have a good pass defense as well. This spread feels way too small to me, and I think we're going to see it go up. You know, I do think the Eagles are going to beat the Buccaneers tonight and that's going to move this line.
That feels right to me. Sam, your friend and name Sam Howell made some bad decisions on Sunday. Can't make those decisions against the Eagles. They're really going to put you in a bad spot, just like the Buffalo Bills did. I'm kind of where Pad is on this one. If you like the Eagles, you want to bet this one now, because the more time I think goes by the more people will continue to grow confident in that Eagle's home field advantage and the Commander is still relatively although they
were impressed in the first couple of weeks. You know, when you start playing better football teams, this is what happens. So what are your thoughts on this early line.
Washington got drag back down to earth after their fans were very optimistic and I think rightfully so through the first two weeks. But I think Philadelphia should have no trouble just running all over this Commander's defense. Philadelphia ranks fourth in rushing EPA per play and first in rushing success rate. I don't think it really matters who they have in the backfield, whether it's DeAndre Swift, Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott, all of these guys should be able to
have some success. So I think this is a game where Philadelphia goes in, even on a short week, and just handles their business in at Philadelphia, all right.
This one could be the game of the week here. The Buffalo Bills, two and a half point favorites at home against the Miami Dolphins, are still favorites at home after Miami put up seventy points on the Denver Broncos. But regardless the number on the over, if you like it minus one twelve fifty one at Sugarhouse three and a half minus one ten a DK. If you like Miami to win outright at plus one thirty five, that's the number you're getting a Sugarhouse right now in the
early line. Now, Sam, this is a fascinating one because the recency bias here. People are gonna run to this total and bet the over. But it is an indivision matchup. These teams do know each other very well. There's a familiarity there as opposed to the teams you're playing out of division or even out of conference. Do you think that's a mistake to people running to this line and going over right away?
I do think so. We saw in the Chargers Vikings game this past week with a similar total line that you need pretty much everything to go right for a game with that high of a total to go over. There were red zone turnovers in that game that forced them not to score and lengthen the game. And I don't know, I've been going back and forth all morning around which team I think is going to win. I think I take Miami with the points right now.
But I I'm.
Just gonna sit back and enjoy this game without any betting leans for right now.
To tell you the truth, Pat, I think the best number on this board is probably the under of fifty three and a half on DK because that is inching to where you know that threshold of team's really got everyone's got to put it together. And I know, I feel like a lot of money is going to come in on the over, so maybe this number even pushes higher. So maybe you wait if you like the over under. But I like Miami on the money line plus one
thirty five here. I'm I'm believing in what Mike McDaniel's doing here with this offense.
What do you think, Joe, We're very like minded this week.
I know it's not always the same, I hope so because last week I was on an island and it did not work out. I drowned. I drowned trying to swim off the island on Sunday night.
So yeah, you mentioned the totals already up to fifty three and a half on Draft Kings, and I do think it's going to climb even higher, like we saw these teams combine for over one hundred points of offense in Week three.
So and if it.
Does get up to fifty four higher, I will be betting the under two because, as Andrew Erickson pointed out in the Betting Pros Betting primer, which you should be reading, by the way, because then you'd see things like Ericson's recommendation to bet Donald Parum for a first TD scorer at thirty to one, which came in and made people a lot of money. But so if it does get to fifty four, as Ericson pointed out, we have now
seen it was four last season. In this season and now it's five because we saw the Chargers Vikings game close at fifty four. Games that close at fifty four points or higher, we've had five of them now since the start of twenty twenty two, all five of stayed under. And so you know, I think we're going to see that trend continue if this gets up to fifty four. I also like the Dolphins. I mean I think they are the equal of the Buffalo Bills. Home field advantage
is worth about two points. If I'm getting the Dolphins in three, especially like with that field goal number, I think we're getting like a point of value, So I don't know whether.
They can get Jalen Wattle back too. Theoretically, yeah, that's what we're expecting.
I'm just not sure whether to get it at three wait and hope it goes up to three and a half, or you know, like it could go down to two and a half and I can't figure out which way the line would be more likely to move.
Well, what you got to do then, is set your notifications for the game notification and the Betting Pros app the line alerts. That's what it's there for. See you look at that perfect segue. So if you haven't already download the Betting Pros apps, think all your sportsbook, but use the game notification. So you could basically say, I want to keep an eye on this line here, does it go to fifty four? Does go to fifty four
and a half? I want to be this is the perfect example of how to use the line alerts or the game notification because I'm waiting for this one to grow, because I think it will. People are gonna keep talking in the media about the seventy. They're gonna be talking all about the Dolphins, and they should. They earnt that right, But I think it's going to inflate this number even more so the number I'm waiting on. But I like
the Dolphins here plus one thirty five. But check out the line alerts and set those game notifications so you know when the lines move, then you can pounce on it. All right, Let's get to the next game here, maybe not quite as exciting as the last one. Cincinnati Bengals to the Tennessee Titans. Again, a lot of uncertainty here, man FITZI. I thought that that plus four that I got on the Titans was such a good number. I got that one early last week, right after the show.
I locked that bad boy in. It did not matter. The Titans were terrible. The offensive line just laid down for Miles Garrett as I would too. I don't blame them, but they are right now. You can get the Tennessee Titans at plus one and a half at Sugarhouse. You get Cincinnati at plus two and a half at Caesars.
Nobody knows what to do with this game. You get forty one and a half on FanDuel, but forty four on the under on Sugarhouse if you like that one, and then it's even money for the Titans plus one fifteen at Caesars. This is your classic. You go choose your own adventure situation. But I guess a lot of it has to do with the health of Joe Burrow. So if you think Joe Burrow sits this week, comes back healthy next week and has himself a game, well,
then this is the time to go bat Cincinnati. But that's a big question mark, isn't.
If it Bengals are going to shut down Joe Burrow just for the long term good, which makes me want to bet the under here now to lock it in at forty two and a half on DraftKings as of this morning. I also want to do something with the Titans, and maybe, like you, Joe, I'm guilty of giving too much credit to Mike Frable sometimes and it's kind of burned me. It burned me too last week. I thought they were gonna, you know, turn it into like a rock fight with the Browns and keep it close.
Didn't happen.
But so rather than take the Titans like on the money line or you know, just a point and a half, I might try to tease the put the Titans in some sort of teaser where I'm getting more than a field goal with them that I kind of like. I think if we get no Joe Burrow, the Titans do no worse than lose by a field goal or less.
Sam. This one's really dangerous for me because I feel like I'm overreacting to my disdain of what happened this week, and the Titans will do exactly what Fitz said, turn this one into the rock fight, and then this one will be a low total, and then this one will be a Tennessee Titans victory when maybe they shouldn't win. What do you think though about the Titans because this is a really tough game on the schedule.
It is, but Tennessee's defense just made Deshaun Watson look exceptionally good. He had I think, his best game as a Brown. So if Joe Burrow comes out of the game tonight without any setbacks, then I'm going probably pretty heavy on the Bengals. Tennessee has a pass funnel defense. They're rushing defense is top five in EPA per plays success rate and explosive rush rate, but their bottom might
in passing EPA per play and passing success rates. So the way that Cincinnati is going to be able to move the ball is through the air, and I think even with Joe Burrow at less than one hundred percent, he'll be able to get it, you know, Jamar Chase T Higgins, Tyler Boyd the ball in space and be able to carve up this Tennessee defense. So I'm waiting until the game tonight is over to make sure that
that Joe Burrow is still intact. But if he is then and this line stays with Cincinnati as the underdog, then I'll be taking.
Them Another Indivision matchup, this one AFC North Baltimore Ravens two and one. They are plus two right now in Sugarhouse, traveling to Cleveland, which you can get a plus one and a half over at bet Rivers. Again, everyone's trying to figure this out here. I don't think anybody has a good beat on how good or bad the Ravens really are, or really how good or bad Deshaun Watson
the Cleveland Browns are, especially without Chubb. Forty four and a half is the best number you can get for the under forty two and a half, the best numbered FanDuel you can get, by the way, for the over plus one oh five on the money line. If you like Baltimore to win outright, Sam, do you see any early value in this contest between the Browns and.
The Ravens Getting forty four and a half, I'm going under easily. I mean, you know you mentioned Miles Garrett in the previous game. I don't know if he saw the clip of him motioning to one side of the field, Tennessee shifting two guys towards him, him going back to the other side, and them shifting those to same two guys over to block him. I mean, he's a force to be reckoned with this Brown's defense is through three
games setting some historical rates right now. The Ravens offense still looks a little out of sorts with this new Todd Monkin offense, and the Ravens are just dealing with a ton of injuries to Ronnie Stanley and Todd Linderbaum were both out for the second straight week again. David Ajabo left early on Sunday, while A dafe Owi and Marcus Williams who were both out too. So I just think this game is going to go way under that forty four and a half going to be one of
those classic AFC North slugfests. That we typically see in in December, but get a little taste of in early October here.
All right, you want to get any taste of this early line when it comes to Baltimore and Cleveland, pet Yeah, I.
Mean it's gonna be, as Sam said, a classic KFC North Slugfest, low scoring close. If I can get the total at anything forty two or higher, yeah, sign me up for the under. I saw forty one and a half on DraftKings this morning, so I'm eager to watch this game.
I'm not so eager to bet forty four.
You can get that under at bet rivers right now. That's why I use betting Pros sink all your sportsbooks. And again you can follow the guys too bettingpros dot Com slash Sam, slash fits, slash Joe. But not last week. You shouldn't have followed me last week. This week will be better. But again I win with you, I lose with you. That's what we do here. And if you want to make your picks count, make sure you go
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Pros and Betting Pros Premium. You're gonna get swag from our shops at Fantasy Pros and Betting Pros. So join the NFL Contest Bettingpros dot Com slash NFL Contest today. It's free, it's fun. Everybody likes free stuff. Now somebody's gonna come out with a free victory. Here is the Chicago Bears, now you know, winless, going to face the winless Denver Broncos. Now the Broncos on paper they look like the better team. Theoretically they are two point favorites
on the road at Sugar House. Forty four and a half is the number. You can get it forty five and a half on FanDuel if you like the under and then you get plus one twenty five. You think the Bears can actually get themselves together and win a football game. I know you are keen on the Denver Broncos defense bouncing back after being grossly all time embarrassed. Can they bounce back after what happened? And can the Denver Broncos finally get a victory in the Sean Payton era?
Joe and I am going to bet them. Both of these teams are having major issues obviously, but I think the Bears issues are irreparable. Like that team is so beyond dysfunctional. It's like I could not have seen this coming. And the Bears are just a train wreck right now. They're completely off the rails.
You know.
I know the Broncos have problems of their own, And man, I wanted to give Garrett Balls a hug after hearing his postgame comments about how like he's been there for seven years and all he's ever done is lost, and like, I felt so bad for the guy. But I do think the Broncos can get it together. They played a close game and lost to the Raiders at home in Week one. They should not have let one slip away
against the Commanders in Week two. Yes, things totally fell apart against the Dolphins in Week three, but I think they can get it back together against a team that I don't think can get it back together, the Bears. I'm taking the Dolphs the Broncos, and I'd lay more than three and a half points. Like if this went up to five and a half, I think i'd still bet the Broncos.
All right, Sam, your feelings about these two teams both headed towards the downward trajectory, But somebody's got to come out. So who comes out of this one with a W.
I'm with Fits.
We've reached the thirty seven minute mark in the pod, and I think this is the first.
Time I have with him on his side.
But both of these teams were just embarrassed on Sunday in different ways, and I think I give Denver a much better chance to bounce back low Ki. I don't think their offense in Denver is that bad. They've had some success. They're in the half of the league in a lot of efficiency metrics. They're not blowing anyone away. But against a devastatingly bad Bears defense, I think they
come away with an easy victory here. I like some alternate spreads on Denver in this game, to you know, just really put it to the Chicago Bears.
All right, the Las Vegas Raiders are going to go to LA to play the Chargers. The Chargers are four point favorites at home, fifty and a half as the number Jimmy Garoppolo should play in this one plus one seventy five like the upset, Sam, your thoughts on this contest here with Vegas and the Chargers.
The Chargers are clearly the better team. Their offense is firing on all cylinders. If not for Tua, I think, and you know, being one and two, I think Herbert would easily be in the MVP discussion. He has been playing exceptionally well this year. I think, you know, obviously the Chargers defense isn't that great, but the Raiders defense can't really make a stop to save its life. They just allowed the Pittsburgh offense to look good. So I'm I'm laying the points with Los Angeles here.
Mike Williams out for the year torn a cl We just got that news breaking while we were recording the show. Fits impact here at all in this line for you with Mike Williams done and then having to move to QJ and maybe you know some more Palmer in this lineup too.
With this over at fifty, maybe I'm going to get Brandon Staleid here and the Chargers head coach is going to make some sort of terrible decision that costs me my wager here. But I'm going to continue my full season fade of Josh McDaniels. I've bet against him every week so far. I'm going to keep betting against McDaniels and the Raiders.
And you know, all.
Right, Fitz, Dallas Cowboys suffered their first loss. They are now two and one Arizona Cardinals. They are still six and a half point favorites hosting New England this week. Forty two is the number sometimes forty two and a half. You're gonna get Sugarhouse forty two over a FanDuel if you think New England will win, it's plus two eighty on the money line. I do not. I don't think
this offense is good enough. The defense is respectable, that's for sure, but still, look, Dallas, I expected to bounce back this week. The question is is this too big of a number here? Too much credit for the Cowboys at six and a half fits?
You know, I want to believe the Cowboys are going to be out for vengeance after that toast stubbing in Arizona. But I do wonder if the loss of Trayvon Diggs, oh I change something like, yeah, that's a big deal, Like I don't know if mac Jones can capitalize on it. And we know that the Cowboys can still get after the quarterback, certainly with Micah Parsons. So yeah, I just like I think the lines are the line in the total are both spot on here.
I just don't want to beat this.
Well, speaking of Jones as too, the secondary for the Newland Patriots was missing all their Joneses, all three of them for this past matchup, so that's also a problem on the other side here for the newle Patriots. Do you see any value here? Sam early on on this Cowboys six and a half number.
To I agree with fits Again, I think all these lines are are spot on. I think people will overreact a little bit to Dallas losing this past week, and I'll talk about that in a minute. Here with our next game.
Well, let's talk about San Francisco, who is undefeated, looks great, Arizona has look for all this crap we gave the Arizona Cardinals organization. They have been competitive on the field. They're showing up for every game, even when they shouldn't be showing up for some of these games. Forty nine Ers, though, are still fourteen point favorites at home fourteen and a half on the plus side for Arizona, get Sugarhouse fourteen at FanDuel forty one to forty two. That's about the
Ranger getting this number. Arizona, there will be an epic upset for them at plus six fifty Sam fourteen is a big number. Can the forty nine ers cover it?
I make this San Francisco by thirteen, So I'd probably take Arizona. Their offense has not been a bismol to your points. Their fifth and early down EPA per play and success rate. They've played against Washington, the Giants, and Dallas, who are all not terrible defenses. In Dallas is a great defense, so I think they're going to be able
to have some six sess. I'm not betting this because I still do worry that Arizona comes back down to earth, but there's a real scenario where our Cardinals could have been three and oh so far this season.
You're right, I think the one thing I take away, though pit fits is the you know, because they beat the Cowboys yesterday. I do think San Francisco goes Okay, we got to take this game very seriously. It's in our division, you know, like we better put a pounding on the Arizona Cardinals because this team's going to show up. So in some ways, I feel like that victory is almost like a wake up call without a wake up call for San fran who, by the way, also has extra rest for this game play.
Joe, I'm want to grab the forty nine Ers while I can at only two touchdowns. I mean, look at how they just squeeze the life out of the New York Giants in Week three, and now they do get that extra rest as you pointed out. And look, the Cardinals are already messing up this whole tanking thing. I think they need to come to their senses and get back to the business of losing, which behooves the franchise
long term. Yes, they beat the Cowboys, but the forty nine Ers have shown they know how to handle an overmatched opponent, like even a you know, fairly closely matched opponent.
They just crushed the.
Steelers in Week one like I think this line should be at least like fifteen and a half.
I want to get it now.
Kansaity Chiefs are going to travel to New York. They are eight and a half point favorites. Plus nine you can get at Sugarhouse on the Jets forty three to forty three and a half. That's kind of the range right now. You're seeing on the line plus three fifty if you think the Jets can win, and I don't. Let's talk about this one FITZI here. I mean, Zach Wilson has been historically bad. Let's just lay it out there. That's how it's been. The numbers bared out. It's period,
end of story. But the defense still very good year for the Jets. Can the defense keep this eight and a half in check? Yeah?
Boy, Patrick Mahomes versus Zach Wilson, talk about, you know, David versus Goliath type of matchup.
I like want Shaquille O'Neil playing one on one basketball.
That's pretty much I want to lay the points here when I look at that quarterback matchup. But I do still have the utmost respect for the Jets defense, and they are not The Jets aren't going to roll over like the Chicago Bears did for the Kansas City Chiefs in Week four.
So I don't think I'm going to play this one.
Sam, your thoughts on this one.
I'm playing it. Give me Patrick Mahomes and the points in the defense is really good. I do like the Jets defense, But yeah, Zach Wilson is just so bad, and I think Kansas City will be able to make his days as bad as it has been so far this season.
Yeah, I agree that pass rushes back with Chris Jones to eight and a half is Actually this is one of the numbers I like a lot. I want to get this locked in now before it grows, because it will next year. In final the New York Giants at home. We don't have clarity about Saquon I would expect him not to play. Considering all the information Doctor Chow gave us on the podcast last week on Fantasy Pros, it seems like he's gonna be a couple weeks with the high ankle. Plus one and a half is what you're
getting here. The Seattle Seahawks one and a half point favorites. Forty four and a half is the number of sometimes forty five like over on fans and then plus one eighteen like the Giants who went home outright, Sam, let's lock this one up. Giants Seattle any early value here in we four.
I think their offense, after stumbling a bit Week one against the Rams, has has come back and had two great showings. G you know, Smith is looking a little bit better. Kenneth Walker and Zach Sharpenay are a great one two punch in that backfield defense hasn't been stellar by any means, But I don't think Daniel Jones is that big of a threat to to put the pressure on Seattle. So give me Seattle with the points.
I agree. I'm with Sam minus one and a half minus one oh nine. You're getting on that one, Fitz, are you three for three on this one?
Heck no, let me close the show with some disagreement.
I'm KII give me the home dog on nine days rest, and like, I feel like the Seattle defense could be the get well card that the Giants offense really needs at this point. I like the over here. I think this game has sneak shootout potential. As bad as these two defenses are, I think it's gonna be a fun way to wrap up Week four, but yeah, I like the home dog.
Give me the giants, all right?
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That'll do it for us, but the story of the game goes on for Sam and Pat. I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time.
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