Welcome in, everybody to betting pros. It's time to place your bets. It's me Joey p Joe Pi Zapia and it's week eighteen, and you know what that means. It's time to look ahead at the final regular season week of the NFL. Can you believe it? We're here already, and there's some major playoff implications. Some teams are in, some teams can get in, some teams need a lot of help, and some teams, well they can't be helped at all. But this team is here to help you.
It's Sam Hoppin, It's Pat fitz Morris, and it's me and we're going to go through the sleigh talk about the early value on some of the lines in week eighteen where we see these games going. And last week, Pat fitz Morris, it was another wild and wacky week in the NFL, Arizona Cardinals getting the w against the Eagles. But luckily your packers have found themselves in a winning get in scenario. But you, my friends, seem to be of little faithfull, he told me before the show.
Oh man, yeah, I just have a little bit of trepidation about that matchup against the Bears. Show just because the Bears have been playing so well. And we'll talk about it a little later. But like, the Packers are gonna have to truly earn their way into the playoffs. The Bears are not gonna lay down for them. So you know, if they win, they will have truly deserved it.
All right, So Pat is hedging, but Sam is not. Sam is wrapping his Green Bay stuff right now. I don't think you can see it in the pox. You might have to pull that up a little bit, but there you go. There it is. The Green Bay Packers sweater is on this morning. So Sam, uh, this is I think the unexpected, maybe the most unexpected potential playoff appearance for the Packers. And what twenty five years for you?
I mean, but yeah, it's been a long time. I mean, I don't know what expectations I really had for the Packers going into the season. I mean, I think the biggest thing was figuring out what Jordan Love is and I think we sort of have at least they're going to keep them around for another season or two, it seems like. But I'm excited about their potential to make the playoffs and and much more confident than my fellow.
She's had Pat's.
By the way, Joe thirty five years, I think was the last. Oh and actually I take that back. They didn't make it. It was nineteen eighty nine with Don Makowski. Imagine ten and six and they didn't make it in that year.
Yeah. Wow, you guys have had a good run. My Patriots had a good run too. But all good things come to an end. At least they lost this past weekend. So thank goodness for that. I thank goodness for all the coverage we have here. Don't forget if you were having fun at Fantasy Pros and Betting Pros, subscribe to our channels. But subscribe over a Betting Pros right now because you will win a one year free premium upgrade when you do. Just ring that bell for notifications, drop
a comment below on any video and that's it. That's all you gotta do. And it's not just NFL. We've also got the NBA Action Fast Break bets Matt Mody taking you through the NBA slate every single Wednesday, every single Friday, eleven am Eastern live right here on the channel. So don't miss that because that had NBA Betton's getting Hot woo wee. Good times. All right, let's start with some good times, and all the games are on Sunday because it's the last week of the season. Let's start
with Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Baltimore asserted itself with dominant, so any any concerns I had about the Mottimore raven have been put to bed. So I apologize on half of myself that I did not believe enough of the Ravens, and I had Miami on the money line because I thought they were going to challenge them. They did not. They did not. But here we are, so a lot of teams again a week eighteen, Sam, this is the tough thing. You get teams that are sitting players. Seems that,
you know, I can't do anything else. So when we're talking about this line right here, right now, you have Baltimore at four point underdogs, because the anticipation is they're not going to be, you know, putting anybody out there. They're going to take some weeks off and maybe they'll play half a game. We'll see thirty six and a
half is the number plus one sixty five. And Sam like this is the perfect example of a week eighteen game already that is really difficult to gauge because of the variables and implications of teams that are in and have things to play for, teams that are in have nothing to play for in teams that you know are still fighting for their life. So what do you think about this line? This is a game you stay away from because of the implications of it.
Yeah, so Ravens already had the one seed in the AFC line. I am wondering if they are going to play some of the starters, given how twenty nineteen went a couple of years ago when they had the ones he'd locked up going in the final week, they sat Lamar Jackson and some of their other starters and then got the doors blown off them in the divisional round against Tennessee. But I still think taking the double buy
for them is the optimal move. Mason Rudolph is going to be starting again in this game for the Steelers. It sounds like can you pick it will be the backup, But I actually took the under thirty seven in this game earlier this morning. Neither team is particularly fast paced.
The Ravens offense will obviously take a massive step back without Lamar Jackson, and this Pittsburgh defense has still played some decent games, the pass rush is still a force to be reckoned with, and Pittsburgh has been on offense a very run heavy team, especially over the last month. So I think all of this leads me to again the under in this game and a divisional matchup with one team really needing the win.
Here, they need a win in some help, Pittsburgh needs a win and a Buffalo loss, a win and a Jacksonville loss or tie, a win at Houston, Indye tie, Pittsburgh tie, Jacksonville loss Houston, Indy doesn't end at a tie, and then Jacksonville loss plus a Denver win plus a Houston Indianapolis not ending at a tie. So there's a lot of complicated things here, So Pat, let's make it simple. Your thoughts on this Pittsburgh Baltimore game.
Yeah, I think I can't remember if it was like twenty nine percent or thirty two percent, right in that range.
Basically a one third.
Chance for the Steelers to get into the playoffs per NFL dot Com. So yeah, no incentive for the Ravens. But Sam Rais is a really interesting point about their last go round. Maybe John Harbaugh wants to take a different approach after that and not totally lay down in Week eighteen. But they're probably gonna rest starters early if nothing else, So I don't trust the Steelers to take care of business in one of the most hostile road
venues for any team in the league. And I really don't want to bet on the team that's probably gonna be resting players. But I do want to bet the under, as Sam mentioned, and I got it at thirty seven and a half. It feels like the totals should be like thirty four and a half thirty five for this one, so I think there is a lot of value on the under.
Next one, here is a pick of Indianapolis hosting Houston. Both teams are nine and seven Indie minus one right now at home. Forty seven and a half is the number. Pat you can get minus one to five or Houston on the money line. You get minus one fifteen on the money line for Indianapolis. Just scenario wise, to kind of run through this real quick, Houston can clinch AFC South Division title with a win a Jacksonville loss or tie.
They can clinch a playoff berth with a win a Jacksonville or loss Anna Pittsburgh loss or tie, and then Indy needs to win, and then he got a Jacksonville loss or tie or a Indie win a Jacksonville loss, so either one that is a good situation. So they can even tie and still make the playoffs. So wacky stuff here, But look, these teams have gotten this far. She's do coaches on a great job pat all year to get these two teams nine and seven, considering the
obstacles they've overcome. That being said, do you have a lean here on one of the sides of this game?
Oh?
You know, I really don't show it.
I find it interesting though that this opened with the Colts favored by two and a half and was quickly beat down. And isn't it interesting, gentlemen, how the Texans have become such a public team this year, And like we've seen that a lot, Like there was a while I was kind of consistently going against the Texans because I didn't think we were getting any sort of value on them. Like I feel like they have become a public team. Everyone loves CJ. Stroud, everyone loves Damiko Ryans,
everyone loves the Texans. So yeah, I mean, the Colts beat the Texans back in Week two. I don't know if there are many takeaways. I mean, Anthony Richardson was still playing at the time, and the Indie jumped out to a big lead, but they were actually outgained in that game. I believe the Colts are just so hard
to figure out. I mean, they've won six of their last eight games, but they lost by twenty to the Jake Browning led Bengals, and they lost to the Falcons by nineteen, So like, you don't know when they're gonna come out and lay an egg. I think the opening line of Colts minus two and a half was probably closer to what it should be than where the line is sitting right now. But I'm just not sure I want to bet the Colts this week. Yeah, I'm probably just staying away.
I'm leading to the Colts on this one, Sam, just myself. They're at home. You know, you're asking a new head coach and a rookie QB to go on the road to win the game. And I'm not saying CJ. Straus not up for that task. I think he is. But at the same time, if you look back at that game earlier this year, you know, no, the Houston Texas haven't allowed one hundred yard rusher all season. The guy who came closest was actually Zach Moss with eighty eight,
which is a credit to the offensive line. I think of the Indianapolis Colts and now they have Jonathan taylorrun the football coming off a good game. I think Taylor is the key to this game. His health and I think they put the ball in Jonathan Taylor's hands in this one. I think that's how they win. What do you think.
I don't know that they'll be able to run the ball. I mean, like you said, Houston's rushing defense has been great.
There.
They rank second in success rate allowed over the last four seasons. Excuse me, over the last four weeks this season, their rush defense is first and success rate and second in rushing DVOA. So I think the way that Indy is going to need to attack Houston is through the air. But give me CJ. Stroud and the point or give me give me the Texans on the money line. I mean, he's he continues to play extremely well. They or the Texans could have had a better day this past week
against Tennessee if not for their offense. Sort of sputtering out in the red zone a couple of times, which again makes me optimistic that they'll be able to move the ball, especially against this Colts defense that doesn't really have anything particularly special about them. So I love the Texans in this spot. I think CJ. Stroud steps up to the moment and delivers.
All Right, two teams I want nothing to do with New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons. They're gonna be in New Orleans. The New Orleans Saints are three and a half point favorites in this one forty one and a half is the number, and then plus one fifty for the Atlanta Falcons, who have not played well on the road all year. Sam, this is another you know, kind of we'll evaluate Arthur Smith's situation. So I'm sure theoretically the effort level here for Atlanta is going to
be high in terms of playoff implications. Obviously, you know, it's a little bit different for them, so they're trying to stay alive and see if they can somehow, you know, figure it all out. But in your opinion here, the way this line is set, I mean, it's a tough sell for me to have any sort of faith in
either of these teams. New Orleans can clinch NFC South with a win and a Tampa loss or tie if they tie or Tampa loses, and then also they can win and clinch a playoff berth with a Seattle loss or tie, a green Bay loss or tie or no tie, Seattle loss and green Bay life. So again complicated. But for Atlanta, they gotta win and Tampa's gotta lose, and then they're still alive in this thing. Your thoughts on this contest.
I agree it's tough to really want to rely on either side here, which is why I'm on the under for this game as well. I expect we get Desmond Ritter in this game. It sounds like they're going to try to get Taylor Heinike ready to play for Atlanta,
but seems like it's not a given. Both defenses are top six in early down success rates, so they're putting teams behind the sticks early in the drive, and I just think these offenses, especially if you're gonna make Atlanta have to pass the ball, are not going to be able to move it very well against the Saints defense, which has had some good good games in the past, obviously had a great game this past week against Tampa Bay. So I like the under forty one and a half.
All right, the under for you? Sam? What about you? Pat? What do you think about this one? Just stick with the under two and avoiding the sides. I think that's probably a good practice.
I'm not sure I like the under, and in fact, I'm actually like a little inclined to bet the over.
Here.
The last time these two teams played, it was twenty four to fifteen, so only thirty nine points. But yeah, so last time they played twenty four to fifteen, but we saw these teams go up and down the field. There were over eight hundred yards of offense in that game, only two offensive touchdowns, both of them by Bijon Robinson. It's mainly because the Saints kept petering out near the goal line. They had to settle for five Blake Groupie
field goals. So, boy, I don't know, Like, I think this number is just low enough where I think there's a smidge of value on the over, But I'm not interested in either side. Joe, you said it two really unpredictable teams, and you know, I just I don't know. I'm not betting Arthur Smith and I don't want to lay three and a half with the Saints either.
All right, Now, Jacksonville can clench a playoff birth with a tie or a Pittsburgh lost or tie. If Pittsburgh loses and Denver loses and Houston Indianapolis doesn't end to the tie, Jacksonville's in now. Jacksonville can clinch the AFC South if they just win. Just handle your business against the Tennessee Titans. That's all you gotta do here. So the Tennessee Titans are at home, Jacksonville's going on the road. Tennessee is five point underdogs at home. It's a Mike
Rabel team. So my guess is they are going to show up despite the five wins, and they are going to play hard and try and ruin someone's day. Forty is the number for this one plus one eighty on the money line for Tennessee, which is a little tempting to me. Pat, I don't know about you, because you know nothing. I'm sure Mike Rabel would love more than
to stick it to somebody on the way out. Do you think Tennessee has that ability to do that against Jacksonville, or does Jacksonville go on the road and get a w and get themselves in.
I think Tennessee absolutely has the ability to play spoiler here at Joe and I didn't take them on the money line, but I've already bet them with the points. And look, yeah, first of all, the Jaguars had lost four straight games before shutting out the Panthers twenty six nothing, and I'm not ready to say that their ship has been entirely righted just by virtue of shutting out the Panthers.
The other point I.
Want to make about this game, like, and this does apply to some of the other Week eighteen games as well, don't be so quick to dismiss the teams that have been eliminated from the playoffs and seemingly have nothing to play for. They want to go into the offseason on an upbeat note, feeling good about themselves, and a win gets a lot of the bad taste from a failed
season out of your mouth. So maybe the season didn't go the way the Titans wanted to, But rather than end the season with yet the taste of another loss, they can spoil the Jaguars playoff hopes here and you know, go out on a triumphant note. So Mike Vrabel seems like a players coach. I think it's good players are going to be up for this one. And yeah, I think the Titans are a very good bat here say, you know, I.
Think that's true of some teams and some coaches, But I think other teams and other coaches, you know, don't have their teams prepared. And that's why they're teams that are out and those guys are thinking about their playing reservations. They're not thinking about trying to get hurt. In Week eighteen, the Titans feel a little bit more like what Pat's talking about, like a team is going to be prepared.
That being said, do you think that you want the Tennessee side of this game with the points because five is a pretty decent number.
I do like Tennessee with the points here. The Jaguars are just on a downward trajectory right now. They continue to struggle on defense, their offenses losing pieces. They just lost Jamal Agnew so they are down to Parker Washington as their wide receiver too now. And this past week was their first positive EPA day on offense since they faced the Bengals in Week thirteen, and that obviously had to come against a Panthers defense that has not played
well at all this season. So I really like Tennessee with the points here, all right.
The next one here, the Detroit Lions are eleven to five hosting the Minnesota Vikings at seven to seven. The Lions are five and a half point favorites, and the consensus betting pros line forty six and a half is the number Minnesota on the upset plus two zero five. Now, look,
Detroit doesn't have much to play. Four. They try their best, but the referees they're not having it over the weekend and now they're probably they're not in a position where they've really changed too much in terms of their stars. So they've won the division, They've locked that up. Do you think you see Dan Campbell pushes guys further or give him a little bit of a breather here, Sam, as this game goes on and looking forward to the ultimate success of the playoffs, Yeah.
I really can't tell, because that at worst they're going to be the number three seed in the conference. They only get to the number two seed if they win, Aunt Dallas loses and Dallas plays in the late afternoon slot. I don't think we know who's starting from Minnesota. I expect it will be Nick Mullins. But this Detroit offense has gotten back on track after a brief stint underperforming
they've had. They had three straight games without a success rate over forty percent, and they've been above forty two
percent in each of the last three weeks. So if the Lions are going to play their starters the full game, which I think is what Dan Campbell will want to do, given that's the only way that they can move up to the number two seat, then I really like Detroit with the points here because Minnesota's defense has has shown some holes over the last couple of weeks, and again I expect that the Lions to continue to click on offense.
Yeah, it seems like the season's taking its toll. Every bounce that went their way last year has gone the opposite way, and all the injuries finally I think mounted against Minnesota. I'm where Sam is. I'm on the signs of the Lions of this game. And you know, Dan Campbell is that kind of coach who wants to play every second of every game and bind every kneecap. I mean it feels about right, doesn't.
It that it does show, and I feel like he's gonna want to get momentum back after not winning that game in Dallas, even though they should have won that game in Dallas, and even though that was disappointing to those of us who were greedy and took the Lions on the money line rather than taking the points in that game. Yeah, what a disappointing result that was. So yeah, I do feel like the Lions are going to play it out. And I mean the Vikings are a hot
mess right now. Like, not only do they have this quarterback situation where we don't know whether it's gonna be Nick Mullins, maybe the return of Josh Dobbs. I don't think it's gonna be Jaron Hall again. But no matter who they put in, it's like resulting in turnovers galore.
And the Vikings.
Defense was a hot mess against the Packers. There were guys running wide open, like no one within twenty yards of them. So I think the Lions are going to take care of business here.
You know.
The lack of motivation is maybe holding this number down a little bit.
I like him. If I can get him at minus five.
This next game, I gotta be honest, boys, I want nothing to do with. The Patriots are at home four and twelve minus two and a half against the New York Jets. The number for this game is thirty and a half plus one twenty for the Jets of the
money line. My temptation, Pat is to look for the Jets here because there's something profound about the circle of life where Bill Belichick dominates the Jets his entire career and all these things and wins all these Super Bowls and all this stuff, and then maybe the last game he coaches could be a loss to the New York Jets in New England. I like the symmetry of that. It's a good story, but I don't know if I
can invest in it. At the end of the day, look tough day at the office, probably for Breeze Hall, because they're really good against the run. You take that away, then you're making the Jets quarterbacks beat you, and I don't know if they're capable of that. I hate this game, Pat, I'm running away your thoughts.
I hate it too, Joe.
I initially thought I was going to betting the under figure and we'd get a number at like thirty three or thirty four.
Nope, No, thirty.
Yeah, they set this bar really low, so I don't even have any interest in betting that.
I'm walking away like you.
All right, So pat and I have left for the evening, Sam, would you like to join us out at the bar.
No, give me the Patriots and Bill Belichick and potentially his final game as the Patriots head coach. That is my hard hitting analysis right there.
That makes me sad because the last thing I want to do is the Patriots fans win another game and ruin any more draft position already that we've ruined, So that makes me even more angry. But let's move on. Carolina is gonna host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Boy, Tampa needs Carolina Panthers in the worst weight here. They had it right there for themselves last week. Now they've put themselves in this scenario where they got to win this
week and keep that train going. Unfortunately, so they are five and a half point favorites on the road, which makes sense. That feels about right to me. Thirty seven and a half is the number plus two hundred for the Carolina money line. Now, Carolina has nothing to play for here, Sam. They are misery. They are terrible. Do you think they can play spoiler here to Tampa Bay or do you think Tampa just goes out there and
from a personnel perspective, just handles them. And considering you know what we've seen sometimes from Mike Evans against Carolina, this could be a lots of props on the overs on Mike Evans.
Yeah, this one. I think there's a couple of ways to attack this one. I think that the Bucks, I think take care of business. But if Tampa Bay leans too heavily into the run, then I think Carolina has a chance to cover. Because Rashad White has been one of the worst rushers in the league this year. He's near the bottom and rushing yards over expectation. The Carolina rushing defense has actually been pretty solid in their pass
defense is what teams are having success doing. So with Baker banged up a little bit, it sounds like he's going to play, but and he has been playing really well. I do think that, you know, two drives into the game, if Tampa Bay is leaning on the run, I think there's a potential live betting opportunity with the carol with Carolina and the points. But I don't see a way that I want to attack it early on, before the game starts.
It makes sense to me here. I mean I don't have faith in Carolina to cover any number or really necessarily, but Tampa, I just think is the better personnel. This is, this is this is a win in your in situation. I think Tampa handles their business. What do you think here, Pat.
I think they probably handle their business, Joe.
But like with the five and a half, they're good enough to give you pause. If this was three and a half, I think we feel much better about it.
It is, and it's another one of those instances where maybe we see the Panthers rally just because like it's been a nightmarish season. Maybe you don't feel as bad about yourself if you go into the off season with like an upset win and really play the spoiler for
a divisional rival that needs this win badly. But yeah, for that reason, the bet here that I would want to make if I were playing it, I mean, forced to make about it, I'd probably want to bet Tampa, But I just I don't see enough value to do it.
Joe.
What sort of total are we getting on a number of drinks? Thrown by David Tepper.
This game, I'm gonna send it. I'm gonna set it at one and a half because you know, you gotta imagine these double fit after last week for sure. By the way, the same Panther team that got shut out by the Jaguars on Sunday. So I don't have too much trade. I'll take Tampa in the points here. I might close my eyes, but hopefully I get that one big Mike Evans touchdown and that'll start to make me
feel better as this game goes on, Cleveland Cincinnati. The Cleveland Browns are going to the playoffs, folks with elite Joe Flacco, I love it. The Bengals are eight and eight. They're five point favorites, though at home, because Cleveland is going to take their feet off the gas because there's
nothing they can dearly do to better their situation. Thirty nine and a half is a number plus one point eighty here on the Cleveland money line, which is kind of interesting here because, like I get it, Cincinnati pat is another team. Maybe they're playing for pride, but is that enough here against the backups of Cleveland to cover five?
Yeah, that's the thing, Joe, I mean, the Browns have no incentive whatsoever being locked into that five seed. But maybe they play their starters for a quarter and a half just to keep a little bit of momentum going into the first round. And as you said, really there's no momentum, no incentive for the Bengals either, having been eliminated from the playoffs.
So I'm just gonna walk away from this.
One, all right. So Pat's walking away another game where you don't know exactly who's going to be on the field for. How long do you see this one in the same Sam.
No, I don't think Cleveland plays any of their major starters. There's really no incentive for them to. I understand that the rest versus RUSS debate here, but I think some of the injuries that Cleveland has suffered on defense is enough for them to say, Okay, we don't want any more of those to happen, especially with guys like Miles
Garrett and Joe Flacco. But I do think one bigger trend, and I know I've mentioned this a number of times on the show this year, is in these games with very uncertain situations, just to bet the plus money odds on these things to hopefully strike gold with the variants, So I think again, Cincinnati or excuse me, Cleveland has a slight coaching advantage over Cincinnati as well, And I don't know. I I think taking the Browns on the money line is the better way to play it than
taking them with the points. So it's a weird situation because we have, again, one team with no way to improve their playoff seating and one team that's eliminated as well, so there's really no incentive for either of them to win, though a confidence boost might help a little. So uh, that's the way I'd be leaning for this game.
If Nick Chubb was healthy, would the Cleveland Browns be the most dangerous team in the AFC?
SAM, I honestly don't know that Nick Chubb changes things that much, and I know that I know that's a little spicy to say, but they're they're passing the ball so well. Like the the Amari Cooper connection, the Elijah Moore connection has been working well. David and Joku is having a great you know, last month.
After all these years to unlock David Joku. Who'd have thought that was coming? Not not me, not me?
But I think I don't know, I don't I don't think it changes that much. I think the health on defense is what worries me the most for my Browns AFC championship future.
What do you think, Patt, do you think of Nick Chubb was still kicking around here? I mean, it's great to be throwing the football, but imagine having Nick Chub running it too, with that passing attack and running the play action off him. I mean, geez, what could have been? I guess that's kind of the question.
Yeah, I mean, and make the Browns offense a little more dangerous. But you know, there's the whole how much do running backs matter?
Debates?
And Jerome Ford is actually yeah, Jerome Ford's good though, Like I like Jerome Ford, So I mean, no question, nick healthy Nick Chobb is the better running back. But it's not like they don't have a running game with Ford and a little bit of Kareem Hunt sprinkled in. So like, the Browns are going to be one of the I can't wait to watch their first round playoff game, Like this is one of the teams I'm most excited about watching. In the first weekend of the playoffs.
Seattle can clinch a playoff berth with a win or a and a Green Bay loss or tie, or a green Bay loss and a Tampa Bay loss or with a tie of their own and a green Bay loss, and in New Orleans ties. So I hope you're all keeping track at home of all these scenarios here. Basically, if you're Seattle, you gotta win a football game here. That's what you got to do and hope for the best. Now, the problem is they're in that later window, so I don't know how much it's going to change effort level wise,
but they are eight and eight going to Arizona. This is the first of the four o'clock games we're going to talk about here. Three point favorites. They are on the road against Arizona. Forty seven and a half is the total plus one thirty five for Arizona on the money line. Sam will start with you on this one here, Seattle on the road with the three or do you like Arizona for the upset?
My one note is no idea. I think I take the Cardinals here. I mean they've they've played well against the Eagles, who I know are struggling quite a bit, but Seattle's defense has taken a big step back here. Kyler Murray is playing Okay, I don't know. Yeah, I'm staying away from this game right.
Now, understandably. So, Pat, are you also somebody who's letting this one go in week eighteen, because well, it's complicated.
I am letting this one go, Joe. It is complicated. It's a really interesting line. And man, the Cardinals are plucky and kind of have been all year for the most part, Like even when they didn't have Kyler Murray, they were scrappy with Josh Dobbs and you know, taking down the Eagles. What a feather in Jonathan Gannon's cap, pardon the pun with the Eagles. But so now they get another Bird team that they could knock off.
The Seahawks.
Yes, still have a chance to squeeze into the playoffs. They're highly motivated. But I can't bet the Seahawks here with the way their defense is completely fallen apart. I mean, they are having some major issues, Like this was a pretty good defense earlier in the season, and right now, man, they are just they have gone to seed. So no, thank you, I'm just I'm not going to bet this one, all.
Right, Pat. Here we go Green Bay Packers at home against Chicago. They aren't home though they are three point favorites understandably, so the number for this game is forty four plus one. Forty on the Chicago side. And that's where you seem to be living these days. So let's expand a little bit more on your take on this game.
Yeah, literally living on the Chicago side here in enemy territory. So the Bears have won for their last five show and they slapped around the Falcons last week in a
big way. Their nice little month long run also includes victories over the other two teams in the NFC North, the Lions and the Vikings, and as well as the Packers played against the Vikings on New Year's Eve, and you know, the Vikings quarterback problems finally gave the Packers an offense that could make them look good because the Packers have really struggled on DEFENSI of late, you know, allowing almost four hundred passing yards to Baker Mayfield, then
over three hundred passing yards to Bryce Young. I am worried about what might Justin Fields might be able to do to the Packers, and the Chicago defense has been terrific lately. So I hate to say it, but I do see value in the Bears at plus three, and you know, for personal reasons, rather than take the field goal, I've got it on the money line. I've got the Bears at plus one forty eight. That way, I'm either happy about the Packers winning and making the playoffs or I win some money.
Okay, I think that's a very healthy thing to do here, Pat Sam, your confidence is now going to be tested. Both these teams coming off wins in Week seventeen, pretty decisive ones too. So where do you stand with the lines when it comes to Packers and Bears?
Give me the Packers and the points. I know Jordan Love had a bad game against the Giants a couple of weeks ago, but he's played phenomenally over the last half of the season. He has five games with a PFF grade in the seventy fifth percentile in his last nine games. He's really clicking with these receivers. Obviously, Jordan Reid potentially being out would be a huge hit because he seems like they're most dynamic player on offense right now.
But the depth, while again the level of receiver that the Packers have is not necessarily at the top tier, but I think the depth that they have and that all of these guys can step up has been a true testament to how they've grown over the second half of the season. So, you know, imagine thinking that the Chicago Bears are going to come into Lambeau in Week eighteen with a future Hall of Fame quarterback and are going to win the game, Like, come on, give me the Packers go pack up.
There's no hedging for Sam.
So you know, Sam, if the Packers lose this, I'm gonna have to drive down to the city to buy you a beer with my winnings apparently, so you can drive.
Your Well that's a very nice thing of you to do there, Pat. I'll say this, My favorite thing is to take the Packers on the money line and combine that with anytime touchdown for Jaden Reed just a tough guy. He scores every single week. I know he's got another injury. I think he'll play through because this is a very important game here. You win, you get in So Reed has been money seven touchdowns and seven games. I mean put those two things together, you're probably getting the plus money.
That's the way I attached this one right here and gonna attack it all right. Next one here, the Philadelphia Eagles. Rough times for the Philadelphia Eagles lately, gentlemen, They're gonna go to New York to take on the New York Giants. The Giants are five point underdogs at home, as they theoretically should be. Forty one is the number plus one
ninety five on the money line for the Giants. Now, Sam, I don't know about you, but Taylor putting up twenty fantasy points last week, Taylor throwing the football, Taylor rushing a little bit. Giants would have a great wide receiver corp. But I don't if it matters right now. This Eagles defense just seems to be falling apart of the seams. I like the Giants and the points on this side. I'm not saying the Giants went outright, but I'm taking the points. What are you doing with this one?
Yeah, I don't have a leaning on the side to your point, like, the Eagles secondary is still a mess in then they just got gashed on the ground by the Cardinals and racked up over two hundred rushing yards against them. Again, the Eagles have been playing extremely well in terms of rushing defense this year, but I think the way I want to attack this is some of
the player props with the Giants wide receivers. I know we don't talk about player props much on this show, but just looking at again the way to attack the Eagles, I think wide receivers are targeted at the highest rate against the Eagles, So that's the way I'm looking. You know, the Giants got a little bit lucky with the punt turn touchdown against the Rams this past week, So if it's Tyrod Taylor, I'm certainly more bullish on the Giants than if it's Tommy DeVito or someone else.
All Right, your thoughts, Pat Fitzmorris on this contest here, I tell you I'm on the Giant side of this when the Eagles are not making me feel real good.
Yeah, maybe I'm walking into a snare trap, Joe, but I've already bet the Eagles here, okay, and they I mean, no question, they are staggering. They have lost for their last five and their only win during that stretch was against these Giants, but they only won by eight and didn't cover in that game. So I just feel like this Eagles team still has a great deal of talent,
even though the recent results have not reflected that. There's no way they should have lost to a team like the Cardinals at this late date in the season with so much on the line. Hopefully that loss fires up this team, and I think Nick Siriani is going to want to build some momentum going into the playoffs. So I'm gonna lay the points and take the Eagles.
Yeah, if you look back here, not that long ago too. I mean, you've got a scenario where you know, they played the Eagles a couple of weeks ago and the Eagles won thirty three to twenty five. You know, I always hate when teams play each other twice in a short period of time too. That's never typically a good thing. Usually it's very close there, all right, Next one here on the Slaves, we continue to roll through the Rams
and forty nine ers. The forty nine ers have put themselves on a good spot here, but the Rams, Mike goodness, if they come on hot of late. The number for this game is forty two and a half if you like the Rams and the money lines plus one fifty minus three and a half here for the San Francisco forty nine Ers. Pat your thoughts on this one. Obviously, yesterday last week, I should say they handled their business, but the Christian McCaffrey injury certainly something to keep a close eye on.
Yeah, the forty nine Ers are locked into the number one seed. The Rams are locked into a playoff spot, and the only motivation for them is trying to get the sixth seed rather than the seventh seed. I don't know that that is that much motivation. I'm sitting this one out, Sam.
Do you think that this is a measuring stick game for the Rams? Even if the forty nine ers are sitting people where, you know, they start to say, hey, look, we are good enough to compete here, let's go in there. It kind of, you know, harken back to you know, back in the day where the New York Giants took on and lost that perfect season against the New England Patriots, but they realized that they could hang with the big boys,
and it was a big confidence builder for them. Is that the kind of game we could be looking at here for the Rams?
I don't necessarily think so. I mean, they took the Ravens toe to toe and lost in overtime just a couple of weeks ago, and the Ravens, some might consider are are the best team in the NFL. And I think again, especially if San Francisco's players, I would expect they they do in this game because when they all of their key starters have been healthy this year, they
have been an absolute wagon. And so I don't think they want to risk players like Trent Williams, like Rock Purty, Debo and all those other guys getting hurt because health is the number one thing for them. So I like the Rams on the money line here. Again, the one point went over the Giants is not all that inspiring. It was probably Matthew Stafford's worst game in quite some time.
But I think again the sixteed versus seven seed probably doesn't sound huge, but it could be the difference in them to play San Francisco in the divisional round if whoever ends up being the seven seed wins their game. So I think they they have all the more motivation than San Francisco does. And again, Matthew Stafford could be again, if not for Lamar Jackson, could be in the MVP consideration as well.
All Right, Denver at eight and eight to Las Vegas at seven and nine. How Denver is eight and eight, I'll never know. I don't understand how that's possible. In fact, I sometimes they have to rub my eyes just to make sure that I'm actually seeing that correctly. But Vegas is at home. They're two and a half point favorites. Thirty eight is the number plus one twenty on the Denver money line. Now, look, Vegas, you know, can't really
do anything here. But at the same time, I think this is Antonio Pierce trying to continue to make statements that he deserves to have this job. So I think they're going to get full effort out of this team. That's why I like the Raiders side of this game. I don't have a lot of faith in the Denver Broncos. I know they eked out a win last week. I
don't care. I think this is the perfect trap where people are gonna say, oh, look, Denver eked out or win, they have something to potentially No, I'm gonna go with the Raiders here, just putting an end to the Denver Bronco season. Your thoughts, Sam, do you agree or disagree with that notion?
I agree. I this is probably my strongest conviction play of the week is the Las Vegas Raiders minus two and a half. The Las Vegas defense continues to play really well under Antonio.
Peers.
The now third in early down EPA per play this season. Their rush defense is first in EPA per play allowed over the last four weeks, despite Las Vegas using the second highest rate of light boxes on defense. I used to think that, you know, having a defensive guy at coach is not the right way to go about building a team, But in my opinion, Antonio Pierce has earned that job. Again, if you're going to have a defensive coach as your head coach, at least have someone who
can be a culture builder. And I think he's done that in Las Vegas. I think he's earned the job. I think trying to find someone outside of the organization is going to be a tough task, especially, you know, with some of their best players on defense right now, especially Max Crosby. So I love the Raiders. I love what Antonio Pierce is doing. I think a huge credit to him getting this team to where they are right now.
Pat, we're both on the Raiders. Are you coming with us? Man?
I think I might have to piggyback you guys. As convinced as you are. I had a slight leaning toward the Raiders, but have not bet this one early, and you guys are selling me like I do. Think the Raiders defense is vastly underrated, and that's actually part of the reason why the play I like more in this game is the under. I think this is going under
thirty eight. I mean, we've got Jared Stidham against Aidan O'Connell in this game and that underrated Raiders defense, So you know, you can absolutely interest me in the under here. And by the way, Joe, the Broncos season, what an interesting Bell Curve season. They've just terrible out of the gates, then actually pretty good for a while at mid season, and then terrible again to end things.
So it's been an early usual season.
It's so funny they're eliminated from the playoffs at eight and eight, and this does is a matter of pride, like you get that, you know, that winning season with that last w and then Sean Payton can say, hey, I went in there, I won, I cleaned up the mess. Here we're gonna move on from Russell Wilson. This was my year of evaluating and like the end of season nine to eight, taking over a team that was such a huge mess last year, I think is an accomplishment.
I just don't think he's gonna get there. I think Vegas at the end of the day is gonna you know, they're both gonna be eight to nine teams when the dust settles on a week eighteen. That's just kind of where I see them. The Kansaity Chiefs, Boy boy, the Chiefs. They finally got a victory there. They're gonna take on the Chargers this week. Now. The Chargers are two point favorites at home because there's really not too much here
to play for for the Kansady Chiefs. Thirty six is the number for this one plus one ten, So Pat, you know, I guess there's two arguments here. You know. Is it smart for the Chiefs to kind of just sit back and regroup and rest their weary heads a little bit, or should they be going out there and trying to figure out what's going on and go beat up on a bad Chargers team and have some confidence going into the playoffs.
You could make a case for that, Joe, But I actually think, like against the Bengals, we saw that offense function probably better than it has at any other point last month and a half. So maybe they just rest on their laurels, and I think you got to rest the franchise at this point and not take any risks, because if you lose Patrick Mahomes, that's it. Your season is over. So I really doubt we see him there.
But you know, just no real.
Incentive for the Chiefs being locked into that third seed. But do I trust the East and stick led Chargers to beat that you? I do not, especially with I mean, they could not generate anything in the passing game last week with no Keenan Allen, no Josh Palmer. I don't see what the incentive is to bring Keenan Allen back.
No the veteran. Yeah, so I just I'm not interested in playing this game at all.
That's fair enough. Sam. Are you out on this one too? No?
I like the Chiefs money line here again for some of the reasons Pat mentioned, Just that the Charters offense has been abysmal. I think the Chiefs, with even some of their backups on defense, will be able to lock this one up again. And Andy Reid is still a good play caller. I think whoever backs up I don't even know who backs up Patrick Mahomes at this point, but there's no reason to start Patrick Mahomes in this game.
As long as he's healthy, he gives the Chiefs a chance to win, and winning a meaningless Week eighteen game is not nearly as important as winning in the wild card round.
I think we're getting blame Gabbart, aren't web.
That seems to be the case. Dallas at Washington, Dallas is thirteen point favorites of this one. Forty four and a half is the number plus five point fifty Sam. It's a big number on the road. We talked about the big number on the road last week in Washington. So it feels like we're right back where we started from in Week seventeen. Your thoughts on this one here?
That was seventeen points where they were behind, and of course the last minute we thought we were going to get Jacoby Brissett all the way up until Sunday and that was not the case.
Give me the Cowboys and the points. I mean that the Commanders kept it close against the forty nine ers this past week up until halftime, and then it was just the forty nine Ers are like, Okay, we need to put this out of reach, and they did so with ease. Again, I think with this game and potentially you know some of the other games too, with these you know games of how much again are they going
to start their starter or play their starters? All that sort of stuff is to keep an eye, you know, do some scoreboard watching yourself, and look, if the Eagles are trailing, I mean, look, you know, possibly place a bet on the Commanders to cover because the Cowboys might sit they're starters for you know, the last quarter or something like that. So that's it. Give me the Cowboys at.
The points, all right, Pat too many points for you or you like the Cowboys as well?
Oh man?
I mean the Cowboys need this one. They're the far superior team. The Commanders have lost seven straight. Sam Howell has been kind of a train wreck over the last month after playing pretty well for much of the season. I'm leaning Cowboys, but I haven't bet it yet. This is it's just in that zone where I do not
like laying this many points in NFL games. It's just, you know, and maybe the Commanders do have that thing where they want to go out on a good note and play really hard one last time and try to mess with a division rival. So I may yet bet the Cowboys, but I haven't done it yet, and I'm not sure whether I'll be able to pull the trigger or not.
All right, last one here is a fun one. The Night Game A twenty. You get Miami eleven to five hosting Buffalo ten to six, winning the AFC East. That's what's on the line here between these two teams. Now you do have Buffalo getting another way to get into They can clinch a playoff berth if they tie, if Pittsburgh loses, if Jacksonville loses, or if Houston and Indianapolis ends in a tie. So this is kind of like you know that last ditch here. Can you win the division?
Can you lock it all up? Pat? Who do you like in this contest? Because we're looking at the lines here right now, it's three on the side of Buffalo. They are the favorites in this one? Is they I think should be? I actually think this is right. Miami get their doors blowing off by Baltimore last week. That sets them rilliing a little bit. They've had some injuries on defense too lately. That's hurt. Fifty is the number
for this one. It's a very high total plus one forty for Miami at home and the money line, Pat your thoughts.
Yeah, I think at first blush people are going to see this and want to maybe take Miami as a home dog. And it does sound as if Mike McDaniel expects too a tongue of I looa to lay through the shoulder injury he sustained against the Ravens, but Bradley Chubb towards ACL in that game, Xavin Howard is going
to be out with a foot injury. That's a lot of defensive firepower the Dolphins are going to be missing here, even though that defense has been playing really well, or at least it was until it ran up against the Ravens. So also, we have seen the Bills consistently get up for games against top notch opponents this season, like they have done it all year, and they've thrown their best punch in most of those games, whereas the Dolphins.
Not so much.
We have seen them consistently shrink from the challenge of playing the best teams in the league. So I think this line is right. Like you, Joe, it does feel like it's probably set where it should be. I'm not gonna bet this game. I just would warn people against like seeing the Dolphins getting points at home and being quick to jump on that one.
I'm not anxious to do that.
All right, Sam, are you anxious to bet at other side of this game?
I don't know that I am, uh, you know kind of with with Pat here that having to lay three points in an away game is again. I know the Dolphins have struggled a little bit the last couple of weeks, but they still have some firepower on offense, and obviously Jalen Wattle being banged up as well, who will see if he goes. It's it's just such a funny scenario because the Bills, I believe, had the second best odds in the AFC to win the Super Bowl, and if they lose this game, they could be out of the
playoffs completely. Like there there's well that's.
The thing, right standone game, so you're gonna know if you're Buffalo kind of if Tampa loses this, it's not Tampa. Excuse me. If if you had Jacksonville lose, you have Pittsburgh lose, you haveah a couple of things happen already, you kind of know your your fate. So then it becomes the pride of the division. How much that matters?
I mean, yeah, but the two seed versus the sixth seed is also a massive sure too. Like you, you're getting one, possibly two home games if if you win, instead of having to go on the road to point again. I mean, they might have to go on on the road to the Dolphins then again and again coming off of a loss, or or going up on the road to the Chiefs. So I knew they just beat recently,
but that game could have gone either way too. So I think Buffalo, regardless of the outcome of those the Steelers and the Jacksonville games, they're gonna be up for it and are gonna want to win. There's I mean, they're not gonna rest any starters by any means. But I think the key here is how much the Bills passed the ball, because since Joe Brady took over, they have gone one game with a positive pass right over expectation,
and that was against the Chiefs. And the way to attack this Bill's defense, or excuse me, this Dolphins defense, especially with the injuries that you guys mentioned, is through the air. I mean, we saw what Lamar Jackson just did to the Dolphins this pass last week. So I don't really know understand why they're not passing the ball so much. I mean they haven't really had to a ton, but they've dropped back on just over fifty percent of their plays the last four weeks, which is dead last
in the league over that span. So if they let Josh Allen loose, then I feel more confident about the Bills taking in this one.
All right, Stay on top of all the lines with the Betting Pros app. Download it now if you haven't already, sync up your sports book and start betting smarter, not harder. Don't forget too. If you have iOS, you get three free days of premium to check that out. Perfect time again. This is that time of year. We got so many sports going on. It's an incredible group of systems here
that we have over at Betting Pros. The app is just tremendous and it's a great way to stay on top of all these lines as they move to with the line alerts so you can set the game notifications so you know, because you know, we all know there's gonna be a lot of line movement this week with all the news of who's in, who's out, who's gonna play, who's not, So it's gonna be one of the trickier weeks in the NFL, but that's what we're here for.
That's what we're here to support you. They'll be more coverage later in the week, of course, on Thursday and Friday for the NFL side, But in the meantime that'll do it for us, but the story of the game goes on for Sam and Pat. I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids.
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