Welcome in, everybody to betting pros. It's time to place your bets. It is me, Joey Pa joe Pisapia and it's week seventeen. Can you believe it? Fantasy championships will be won or lost this week, but neither matters here because this is just about us making money on football. This is about us having fun, and we're still having fun. So fantasy might be over if a betting never stops. And of course neither of these two guys, because it's the morning after Christmas and here we are opening a
present of a show for you. Sam Hoppin right here, fresh off of too many Christmas cookies, and Pat fitz Morris, fresh off of, you know, just the entire Christmas season. Just the eggnog continues to flow through Pat fitz Morris in a very strong way. But regardless, we're here. I've got more lasagna to feed people. Because Christmases never end. When you're Italian, you just have every cousin that you ever had in your entire life come over your house.
And that's what's happening for the rest of the week. But it doesn't matter. We're still here talking football. We got a great time for you today, So if you haven't already subscribe to the YouTube channel, drop your comments below because we're still giving away premium upgrades of betting pros want you to win all of those that are possibly left here as the season comes to a close.
What a wacky weekend of football. We had incredible performances from Amari Cooper last week, some upsets on those Christmas Day games as well. You know, guys, I thought something was gonna go sideways. If you look at these games, you're like, wow, these are three heavy home favorites. Something's
gonna go sideways. I thought one. I didn't think two were gonna go sideways, and the one that went sideways, they didn't go sideways, is the only one that I thought was going to So at the end of the day, it's a hot mess, but we're gonna sort it out. That's what we're gonna do. And let's jump right in feed first to some of the games we've got going on here today, and again, don't forget to subscribe because we've also got the NBA Action here on the program
as well, which is a great time. Every Wednesday and Friday, we've got best NBA bets going on there on Fast Break Bets with Matt Mody eleven AM Eastern right here on the channel live, so you can ask questions, you can get involved with the NBA action. So, gentlemen, let's kick things off with the first game another Thursday night. Or the New York Jets coming off an incredible performance at home when they've got eliminated for the playoffs, going
against the Cleveland Browns. Cleveland's ten and five, they are seven point home favorites, an incredible game for Joe Flacco. Thirty six and a half is a consensus number on betting pros right now, plus two sixty for the Jets. Upset. Sam, Let's start with you on this one here the Cleveland Browns a very convincing victory and incredible performance. Joe Flacco continues to just throw a three hundred yard game after
three hundred yard game. So any feelings about this line and the early value and could this one possibly even continue to grow as the week drags on.
Yeah, I am about forty minutes outside of Cleveland for the holidays, and let me tell you it is buzzin' here with with how good this offense looks. I mean, this offense looks probably the best it has in the last two years. It's I know. I mentioned last week that def Flacco isn't really playing as well as the results have shown, and I think that's still the case to a degree, but Kevin Stefanski is dialing up some incredible play calls using play action at a slightly higher
rate with Joe Flacco under center. They just had their third positive EPA performance on the year this past week, and even in the event that Flacco does turn it over, this defense is still good enough to hold opposing offenses down, so it doesn't really cost them that much. Seven is a lot of points, though, against this Jets defense that continues to play well despite the second half blunder they had against Washington this past week. So I don't have a lean on the side for this game right now.
I think I would lean Cleveland. I believe it's about minus seven right now. I made it minus six for Cleveland, but again, not confident enough to want to back.
The Jets, understandably so, and boy, you got to be loving that Cleveland to win the AFC that you had there, because that one from thirty to one to twenty to one over the last couple weeks, So Sam's loving that investment. FITZI a performance from the Jets and Breeze all that I don't think anybody really saw coming necessarily, and that
throws a wrinkle into this just slightly. But this one is in Cleveland, so I'm kind of where Sam is, which is it feels about right your thoughts on this one here as Cleveland continues to put together good performance after good performance lately.
Well, it's funny, Joe, when you talked about things going sideways for a couple of the home favorites at the top of the show, I bet you weren't even talking about the Jets. And I took them last weekend and was counting my money about an hour into that game and things started to get away from them. So this does seem like a lot of points. But the Jets have been really bad on the road this year, and
they've been especially bad as big road dogs. They're one in five against the spread on the road, zero and three against the spread on the road when underdogs by seven or more points. So they have played down to expectations in some of these games where they been big road dogs. But this is a really tough matchup for Joe Flacco. I mean, the Jets have been tough on opposing passing games. You have to tip your hat to
him for making this Cleveland passing game go. But he also has five interceptions in his last two games, and that's what scares me about possibly taking the Browns here. I don't really want to bet the Browns. I'm not betting the Jets on the road here, so you can interest me in the under though. Like I mean, the Browns have an excellent defense, the Jets have a very good defense, and like I could see this one turning
into a total rock fight. So I'm inclined to bet the under here more so than either side.
All right, let's go to the next one here, Detroit at Dallas. Dallas again dropping another big game on the road as Dallas is wont to do. The Detroit Lions have wrapped up the North. They are Kings of the North for the first time in a very long time. They are six point underdogs though going into Dallas, which is where Dallas does their best work, so this is understandable. Fifty three and a half is the number here on betting pros plus two twenty four. The Lions now, Pat,
I mean, I imagine you know it's week seventeen. I don't think you can start sitting guys necessarily here if you're Dan Campbell, I think guys are gonna get out there and continue to work. And Jared Goff does play good and controlled environments. We know this. I'm on the Detroit side of this game, and I actually kind of think that plus two twenty the money line is the most intriguing part. I think Dallas is reeling a little bit. I know they've been brilliant at home, but you know what,
Detroit Lions right now, at least the six. To me, that's a good temptation. I want to go there.
Yeah, first, Blatch, this does seem like it's too many points, Joe, and.
Like the reason.
The only thing that gives me pause, and you said it is how good Dallas has been at home seven and zero straight up, six and one against the spread this year for the Cowboys when they're at home. So I'm not sure if I'm gonna pull the trigger on the Lions or not. Like it's it's really close, but I like, if I'm going to bet this, that's who I'm going to bet.
So I agree with you like that is where the lean is, and I've.
Already bet the under like such a tall number that you really need both teams to go up and down the field on this one to get an over. And the Cowboys ranked sixth in defensive DVOA and the Lions ranked thirteenth, So these are two pretty good defenses and not a case where you're getting a gross mismatch where a couple of really good offenses picking on bad defenses.
The defenses here.
Are legits, so I don't think we're likely to get a point total in the upper fifties here.
Sam Pott makes a great case for the under in this game with the high total of fifty three and a half.
Do you concur Yeah, I mean I think that's the side. Again, with the total of this big, you'd need everything to go right. You can't have those long drives that in in a field goal or a red zone turnover, things like that. Those will absolutely kill the chance of this going over. But I'm with both of you. I think the Lions are clearly the side here. Last four games Dallas has played Seattle, Philadelphia, Buffalo in Miami, so four pretty good offenses. But they are struggling on defense to
hold these offenses. Over the last four weeks, they are thirty second in early down EPA per play and early down success rate, and Detroit still is one of the better offenses. They're playing with one of the best offensive coordinators in Ben Johnson. So I think Detroit has a chance to take this win in Dallas. I mean, there's no way that Detroit is sitting anyone over the next two weeks, so they still have a chance to the number one seed with everyone at eleven and four at
the top of the NFC. So I really like Detroit in this spot and think they could come away with the win.
How crazy would that be if the Lions were not only just the Kings of the North, but the number one seed. I talked to a buddy of mine who has been a long time suffering Lions fan, and he was so excited Yesterdong Christmas, which is so funny because he was so miserable on thanks Giving. He was miserable on Thanksgiving. I know you two were not. You guys were very happy with that day. All right, let's get to the next one. Much to my chagrin, the Newingland
Patriots won again last week, jerks. All right, let's get to this game that they've got coming up in Buffalo. Buffalo has trounced them these last few times. Around twelve points is a lot, though, Sam, forty one is the number plus five hundred four New England to win this game. I know New England found a way to squeak out of victory thanks to Sean Payton over in Denver, But what are your take on this one? I know twelve is a large number. Buffalo should have smashed the Chargers
last week. Instead, they kind of just squeaked by. I don't know, maybe the road travel, something about that, the holidays, all that crunch, But this one's at home. Is twelve too much? Or is it just right for you? Sam?
Joe? I have been on the Patriots each of the last two weeks, and I have won those each of the last week, so I guess pushed against the Chiefs, but I will not be on the Patriots for a third time. But I'm not on the Bills either. I think since Joe Brady took over, the Bills have been much more run heavy. They are wanting to run the ball as much as they can. They're sort of I don't know if they're hiding Josh Allen, but it doesn't seem like he trusts him that much. And the way
to beat the Patriots is through the air. Their run defense continues to be exceptional, and I think if Buffalo runs as much as they want to and have over the past couple of weeks, that they're going to struggle to move the ball. James Cook has been great, especially from a fantasy perspective, but you know, he hasn't been the most elite rusher. He's been great in the passing game.
But I think honestly that the best play here might be like parlaying the under with the Patriots, because if the Bills lean into the run, I don't think they have as much success, and that keeps the total a little bit lower as well.
That was my thinking as well. As you have seen this shift here to Jack. I don't know if it's hiding Josh Allen so much as maybe it's trying to balance the offense for once and trying not to ask Josh Allen to do everything all the time and make every single play, because I think that's asking a lot of any quarterback, no matter how talented, but to Sam's point, it is that rush defense of the Patriots, that one thing that does seem to be the only thing going
for the Patriots this year. So that being said, is this another underfitsy for you?
Yeah, I'm not petting either the side or the total on this one. And like, I don't have the numbers in front of me, Joe, but I would love to see what the underdog is this year. In games where the underdog is catching double digit points and the total on a game is relatively low, like forty two points or less, it seems like the underdog in those matchups has been doing really well this year.
So that's it.
Like you see a total this low in a double digit spread, and I do not want to bet the favorite, so I just, yeah, I can't get behind the bells. And as you said, like the one thing the Patriots do Joe really well has stop the run. And with Joe Brady and the Bills leading so hard on the running game, like I don't know how that's gonna work out, but yeah, and Joe condolences on that victory for the Patriots, and like that probably is going to cost them the
quarterback they so desperately need in the draft. But you know, nice to see them show their pride.
I guess in Denver U pride cometh before the fall, my friend, it was miserable. Look, I can only hope that there's gonna be more trading and things going on. There's also two weeks for other teams to lose two, so I can only assume these next two games the Patriots can lose to the Bills. I'm hoping, let's go Buffalo. The Baltimore Ravens twelve and three are gonna host the Miami Dolphins eleven and four, who finally beat a big
time opponent. That's great and Baltimore Ravens shout out to them. Look, last week, I was on my high horse. You know, I thought the fort Nits were unbeatable. I thought they were gonna smash. I took the five and a half, and boyle boy, was I wrong. Purdy laid an absolute egg. Interceptions galore, four of them. Now two of them, maybe we gets air question all. We talked about this before the show. But still there was two that he got
away with two that could have been interceptions. So I'll take that four or give them a three and a half, whatever it is. But regardless get Baltimore credit. Lamar and company played a great game. The defense played very well. So here you go. Ravens twelve and three, Miami eleven and four. Ravens are just three point favorites. This is
a really interesting line. I thought they might get a little bit more maybe the hook or possibly even more Fitsy after that performance last night, But this morning, that's all your gang. Forty seven is the number Miami plus one thirty five, so fits This is a huge AFC game here. That's basically going to tell you how the next two weeks go for both these teams. Do you think that Miami is up to the task to go
into Baltimore and win this football game? Or is this another spot for the Ravens to assert their dominance and not let their guard down, which is something the Ravens seem to do in some other games, Like they get up for some games and other games they look more human. Which Ravens club do we see this week?
Yeah, the Ravens were clearly up for that game against the forty nine ers, and I can't imagine they have a letdown game in a game of this magnitude and coming home. But at the same time, I think we finally got what we wanted to see from the Dolphins, and that's a win against a quality opponents. You know, like every time we wanted to crown them, they would play some strong team like the Bills or whoever, and they would lose and we'd have to question whether the
Dolphins belonged in the elite tier of the NFL. So now I think they've showed that they do belong. Another case where I'm not really interested in the side, Joe, but you can talk me into the under here, because both of these defenses again too good for the total to be this high. The Ravens are number two in defensive DVOA, and I think people realize what a good defense this is. Although maybe they're going to be without Kyle Hamilton, who injured his new on Sunday night. That
was kind of a bummer for the Ravens. But I'm not sure the public has a really good grasp on how good this Miami defense has been over the last two months. The only teams to score more than twenty one points against the Dolphins over their last eight games were the Titans, oddly enough, but so I think this total is just too tall. I think the under is the best bet in this game, and there's really no value on either side in my opinion.
All right, your thoughts on Baltimore Miami and by the way, Sam too, Lamar Jackson's now gone ahead of everybody for MVP is minus one seventy on the board, Christian McCaffrey a plus four fifty, and where's Brock Purdy. He's all the way plus thirteen hundred. Now, all it took was a couple of picks. Maybe that's all it took. Your thoughts here on Ravens Dolphins.
Yeah, the Ravens. I still can't get a full grasp on like they is scoring well, like they've scored thirty plus points in some of their last nine games, but it just doesn't it looks like a challenge at certain points. And I understand Lamar is the MVP, and I think that's mostly based off of vibes and like who else are you gonna give it to? And he had to
win in prime time against this great forty nine ers defense. Again, not trying to take anything away from Lamar, because I think he has been fantastic this year, but we're giving a lot of credit to this Baltimore Ravens defense that just, you know, not a couple of weeks ago got sort of gashed by this the Rams for thirty one points. So they're just sort of like all over the place for me. So I originally was going to lean Miami in this game because to your point, I think their
defense is still underrated. What they've been able to do with Jalen Ramsey and even with the loss of Jalen Phillips has been incredibly impressive. Vic Vangieau is calling a great defense there. So I don't have a leen on this game right now.
I'll say this, I'm pretty sure we get the forty nine er game. We're all gonna agree the fort Niners are going to win if Baltimore has another hiccup here this Christian McCaffrey a plus four fifty for MVP. That's the bet of the week, that's the better of the week. I mean, I don't know how you don't do that because he is the MVP. We're trying to give it to anybody here. But if you think about this year, who's been the most valuable asset in the National Football League?
I don't think there's any doubt that at this juncture in the season, it's McCaffrey. No quarterback has really stepped up consistently. They've all had moments, but everybody's kind of drifted backwards. At the end of the day. I think it's McCaffrey right now. I know we don't like to give I know it's Peterson and we got to go back to like Sean Alexander for God's sakes. But I don't know, Sam, you look like you have feelings about this as I'm saying, yeah, I.
Mean, we could do a whole nother podcast on this. But the reactionary nature of this, the awards market for the MVP specifically, I mean, at the end of the day, these voters, I think are going to go back and look at the full landscape and product of their season and not just react to the most recent Monday night football game. And hell yeah turned out so again, if there was any year that a running back or someone like Christian McCaffrey was going to win it, certainly this
is the year. But I do think that players like Lamar Jackson, I mean, if the Dolphins win this game, to us probably going to be the MVP favorite after the after the game yeah, but you know.
What, he ate the MVP either, And I think when you look totality of everything, I don't think that's gonna be I don't think Look, Rock Party was on by a thread and then this game happened, and this is I don't know if you can recover from this one not in this race. I really don't think that. Pat, I don't know what your thoughts are here. But to Sam's point, like we could just juggle back and forth, but the one guy every single week is getting done
who is putting up magical stats as Christian McCaffrey. You got twenty something touchdowns. What are we doing here?
It's funny.
At Christmas a Christmas Day gathering yesterday, my cousin's fiance has Christian McCaffrey at plus thirty eight. He has a bet on Christian McCaffrey plus thirty eight hundred, and he like laid out the possibilities, like, well, the forty nine ers would probably have to lay an egg in this game against the Ravens and Purty is a really bad game.
Then Lamar has to lose at Miami.
And you know, McCaffrey like bounces back with some massive game against Washington, which could very easily happen.
I could pree it, Like, yeah, I don't. I don't hate those odds on McCaffrey right now.
We know it's traditionally been a quarterbacks award, but like this is setting up for those rare years where a running back could sneak through Pat.
There's been one quarterback pillar to post that's really bit it this year. All right, we spent a little time on that. Let's let's fly through these games here. Vegas Indianapolis, Indianapolis three point favorites at home. Vegas huge upset, Sam. This number is forty four and a half plus one thirty five on the Vegas side. Look, the Colts have been an enigma all year in terms of betting. But you got to give credit to Antonio Pearson, the Raiders man.
He has had this team from minute one of taking over that job, prepared to play and ready to play. That makes it very dangerous. Are they dangerous in this one?
I think they are. I mean, I think I was actually surprised that the market wasn't more in favor of Las Vegas after their win against Kansas City. But I think there's two things. I mean, the people sort of realized that the win was fluky. They scored two defensive touchdowns, barely had over two hundred yards of offense, and we know that this Chief's offense is not what it used to be, so shutting them down is not the great feat that it once was. That said Antonio Pierce wants
to establish the hell out of the run. I mean, if they get a lead, they are going to run as much as possible. Fortunately, that is not a strong spot for Indianapolis. It helps that the Raiders are fourth in EPA per rush over the last four weeks. They're doing it without Josh Jacobs as well, who seems like he might be back this next week. It sounded like he was close to playing in this game against Kansas
City as well well. So I like the Raiders in this spot to pull off the upset even on a short week.
Yeah. Look, O'Connell is not impressive. I'm sorry. I watched that game, and you know he is not the Goods And I didn't think it was the Goods when you were in college either. So whatever that pivot is, it makes you ponder like if Garoppolo was healthy enough to really play, like maybe this could be a really dangerous, A very dangerous team potentially fits. I don't have a lot of faith in O'Connell, but there's something about Antonio Pierce.
It just gets this defense fired up. To get this team very focused, they find ways to win and be competitive. And Indy is, as I said before, a bit of an enigma. I know for you especially, you've mentioned it several times this year. What do you think of this game here with the early kind of here you go choose your own adventure that Vegas is laying out for us.
Yeah, the Raiders have been really plucky under Antonio Pierce, but I am not the Shane stike In disciple that Sam is. But I do think there's a little bit of value on the calls here. And Sam mentioned like he's surprised this line is not pointing more in the
Raiders direction. But think of what this line probably would have been before last weekend's results, with the Chiefs getting upset by the Raiders and the Colts laying this egg, probably playing their worst game of the season against the Falcons, like I think had Week sixteen never happened, I think you've probably seeing Colts minus five, minus five and a half in this one, so you know you you talked about it, Joe, like the Chiefs offense or maybe it
was you, Sam, Sorry, the Chiefs offense really struggling. They gift wrapped the Raiders a couple of presents with those back to back defensive scores on consecutive plays. I believe that was the Raiders just don't have much of a passing game. And well their explosion against the Chargers two weeks ago, notwithstanding, but I.
Think like sixty dropped two, but that was the Chargers.
You know, And like, I think we could see the Colts come out breathing fire after playing such a poor game against the Falcons last week. Like think, I think they're going to come back hard in this one. And I am leaning towards betting the Colts here. Have not done it yet, but I think I am going to bet the Coults.
Speaking of the Falcons, they are going to travel to Chicago to take on the Bears. They are three point underdogs in Chicago. Thirty eight is the number plus one thirty for the Falcons fits. Again, confidence is a tricky word this time of the year in certain teams. Do you have confidence that Chicago can handle their business? And Atlanta will continue their road woes. Or do you think Atlanta somehow finds a way to pull out a victory here.
Nope. I bet the Bears. They've won three of the last four.
They've held opponents to an average of fourteen point eight points per game over that stretch, and the Chicago defense is just playing really well lately, and Justin Fields is generating offense. The Falcons need this game, but are we going to trust Arthur Smith in a must win game.
I don't know about you, guys, but I am not.
And last week's Massy Peabody rankings suggested that the Bears are about two points better than the Falcons on a neutral field. This is not going to be a new neutral field. It's a dome team from the Deep South coming up to Chicago to play an outdoor game, and temperatures that are probably going to be in the thirties next Sunday.
So I like the Bears here. I'll lay the field goal.
All right, Sam, your thoughts on this contest here between the Bears and the Falcons? Any value here on this line?
I don't see anything on the sides, but I think the under is in play here. The Atlanta defense is legit and they have been all year. And for how good the Bears defense has played recently, their offense has continued to struggle. They rank thirty second in passing success rate over the last four weeks. And again the free agency additions that Atlanta brought in on defense, and Mcleus Campbell is playing very well for I think thirty eight years old. So I think both of these teams, again
with strong defenses, less than ideal offenses. Give me down right here.
Falcons are a quarterback and a co away. That's all they are. Quarterback of the coach get those two things in the off season. I think they get right in the things I know, I know, but you never know. I mean, crazy things happen sometimes coaches show up with quarterbacks.
You know.
Sometimes we've seen that happen when guys leave together. All right, Carolina, Jacksonville's the next one here. Carolina is two and thirteen, Jacksonville's eight and seven. SAM minus six and a half is the number for this one. The Jags are favorite at home, as one would imagine Carolina being as poor as they are. Thirty seven and a half is the total for this game, plus two to thirty for Carolina
when you're looking at this one too. I know Jacksonville has had its struggles, but is this one where they can handle their business and cover the six and a half?
Sam?
I think so? I think I want to buy the Jags here. Carolina just had its best offensive output, but it was against the Packers and Jill Berry's defense that had previously allowed back to back NFC Player of the Week awards. So I think this is a get right game for Jacksonville. I'm not sure the status of Trevor Lawrence at this point. I think he injured his throwing arm.
But even if it is CJ. Brethlord, I think Jacksonville they wanted to run the ball a lot and have struggled, but I think Carolina gives them an opportunity to run the ball as effectively as they want. So I think, regardless of quarterback, I want the Jags here.
All right, Pat, your thoughts on this game here? The Jags obviously a lot of injuries, a lot of issues the last few weeks. Is this the get right game for them?
I'm not sure it is, Joe. Four straight losses and they have been stomped by the Ravens and the Buccaneers the last two weeks, and like, I don't want to bet the Panthers either, I'm just going to pass on this one.
All right, fair enough, Let's get to the next one then Tampa at excuse me, Tampa hosting New Orleans. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are eight and seven, Saints are seven and eight. The Bucks, as they should be, three point favorites at home. Forty two is the consensus number plus one thirty five here on the New Orleans Saints money line fits. Tampa Bay just kind of feels like, ironically, at this juncture in the season, the best team in this division, and this is the chance for them to
really go out there improve it. Will they do that this weekend?
Yeah?
I mean the Buccaneers have really found their footing. They've won four straight, as you mentioned, and over the last two weeks they've beaten the Packers and the Jaguars, two respectable teams, by a combined thirty two points. Meanwhile, the Saints have lost for their last six, and the two wins came against the Panthers and the Giants. And back in Week four, the Buccaneers handled the Saints really easily twenty six to nine, and that was before the Bucks
did find their footing. So I think they're going to take care of business and I'm happy to lay the points. The only thing that gives me slight pause is that the Saints have that extra three days of rest in prep time after playing the Thursday night game last week.
Sam the Bucks were convincing thirty to twelve on Christmas Eve here against the Jags. I mean, it just kind of feels like things are going their way. They found their quarterback in Baker Mayfield. That reclamation project has worked for them the Saints. As Fitz said, it does have some extra time, but does that even matter with the Saints team at this point.
I don't think it does. But I do like the over in this game. I think both offenses, the Bucks offense again, Baker Mayfield playing really great football right now. It's cool to see him sort of rejuvenate his career there. It sounds like they want to keep him past this year as well. And the Saints' offense is great at padding stats at the end of games and when they're down big, they throw the balls on and can get
back into these games. And Tampa Bayed secondary is one that is going to allow you to be able to do that, So I think over forty two here is my leaning.
Right now, All right, next game on the slate, the Philadelphia Eagles at home will take on the Arizona Cardinals. Philly's favored by nine and a half on this one. I'm actually surprised it's not a little larger. I'm worried this one is going to grow as the week rolls on. Forty seven and a half is the total plus four
fifty on the Arizona money line. Sam, where did you have this game just out of curiosity in your projections, because it feels like this one would have been at double digits but it hasn't quite hit there yet.
Yeah. So this one was at minus twelve in favor of the Eagles before the game yesterday and now is down to minus nine and a half. And the game between the Eagles and the Giants, it felt like different parts of the Eagles team clicked at different times, Like the defense played well for a little bit and then the offense played well, but it just never all happened at once. That said, the Cardinals are not even with
Kyler Murray, They're just not that great. I think Philadelphia is going to be able to take care of business here. I'm not laying either side in just this could be a just a weird game.
I kind of understand that, all right. The Rams are going to travel to New York next week for Week seventeen. They are going to be six and a half point favorite when they do to face the Giants forty two with the consensus number plus two thirty five on the Giants money line, the Giants are five and ten the Rams are eight and seven. It feels like two teams, you know that have obviously gone in a different direction this season. So Sam, that being said, you've seen the early value in this line.
Yeah, give me the Rams. They are one of the hottest teams on offense right now. Matthew Stafford is playing quarterback is as well as any other in the league right now. They'll get the extra rest having played on Thursday night, and the Giants are on a short week as well, having played on Monday afternoons. So I think Stafford's going to be able to take care of business
against the Giants again. Kyron Williams playing extremely well, so I don't see how the Giants are able to stop this Rams offense.
The two greatest waiver wire pickups of twenty twenty three, Kyron Williams and Pookin Takua on the same team. Patty, It's been quite a season for the Rams here and they are getting hot at the right time. So do you think fits that you have that same confidence that Sam does here that they can go on the road here with the six and a half and take care of business against the Giants?
Not quite as much. If I were going to bet this one, that is who I would bet. But it's just a little too tall for me to do that, especially after the Giants were able to and we talked about the Eagles, like, the Giants just hung around in that game and refused to be extinguished and wound up getting the covers a double digit underdog. So like, I kind of think they can keep this one close. I just don't want to touch it. I mean, I think the offense better.
Than the Eagles offense right now, because I think it is yes, yeah, okay.
No question.
The Eagles passing game has struggled for a couple of months now.
Yeah, it's a funny thing to ask that question, but like, I think it needed to be rhetorically asked, because I think all three of us agree that's the case. So if they kind of, you know, just kind of backdoored last week that we're only talking about six and a half here, that feels like a long day at the office maybe for the New York Giants, but I think we're all pretty confident with the Rams have done recently. What about Houston and Tennessee situation here? Always a tough
one here Houston at home. We don't know the CJ. Stroud status minus three and a half their favorite against Tennessee forty two and a half is the number plus one fifty five on the money line? Fits Is this a stay away until you have clarity when it comes to the Houston Texans QB situation this week?
Yeah?
I mean, if anything, Joe, I think, like maybe you want to get this now before we get word on C Like I have to imagine Stroud is back this week, but they.
Have said it's a very it's one of the more serious quarterback concussions, is what I read that they've had all year. But to your point too, it's been a few weeks now.
So yeah, very tricky situation, that's the thing.
But I guess even if Stroud is back, like, I don't have the same warm and fuzzy feeling about the Texans that I had a month ago.
You know what I mean?
So maybe just laying off this one is the right move, because if we don't get Stroud, then all of a sudden three and a half points does not look like a bargain by any means.
Are you where fits as Sam on this one where you want to take it now before you get clarity about this laming changing if Stroud does play in this one getting a little tighter, I don't.
Want to touch it all because I don't even think we know who's going to be playing quarterback on the other side of the ball for three points. And while I don't think Tannehill to Levis changes the line that much, the variability in Levis's play is much wider than it is for Ryan Tannehill. So I think again, if Levis plays, then I'd want to again try to maybe target some all spreads for the Titans in favor of Tennessee. But I'm not touching this game until we know more about the quarterbacks, all.
Right, San fran Washington Boy. If ever, there was a perfect opponent for a team that just came off a bad loss on a prime time holiday game, it's the Washington Commanders. That's what you want to see if you're the forty nine ers. I mean, the Commander's just got their buck kicked by the Jets. I can't imagine what kind of pain they're going to be involved in. What do you think the team total is going to be
for this game? Here? Sam? Forty nine ers a third even a half points favorites forty eight and a half is the number plus six hundred for the Washington Commander upset.
Now.
I know Washington sometimes shows up in weird games they have this year at certain junctures, just as the Eagles. But that being said, San fran is a lot to handle for Washington. They struggled with Breeze Hall. I can't imagine all the overs on Christian McCaffrey. Is that just the approach for this one? Sam?
Yeah, I mean I think Kyle Shanahan's just going to get all of his frustration out on against his former team. I kind of want to know who's going to be starting for Washington in this game. I think if if they do go with Jacoby Bressett. I think there could be a little bit of value on the Commanders because he has not played terribly. I mean, I think he raises the floor for Washington a little bit. And again we've seen San Francisco's defense against some competent teams can
can have some success and potentially keep it close. So I yeah, just look at Christian McCaffrey overs.
Yeah, Christian McAffrey overs. Do you think if Jacoby Brissett was the quarterback of the Jets or the Falcons all year they'd be playoff teams? Because I do with those defenses, and that just goes to you know, they sat on Brissett and they are a four win team at the trade deadline, and I didn't understand why that wasn't the piece that everybody was going for. Why maybe the Commanders
didn't want to give him up. It's just so strange to me because I think those teams would have really benefited from Brissett, who is a good leader, a likable guy in the clubhouse. Everybody seems to like him in the locker room. And again another Stefanski quarterback last year that somehow found a way to win games and keep them relevant for longer than maybe the Brown should have been. Stefanski's a great coach. I don't think he gets just the thing.
If Washington plays Pressett all year, they're probably a playoff team. Are They're at least in contentient for a wild car.
So maybe at this point maybe it's not impossible. Fits your thoughts on this potential ugly situation here for the Commanders and forty nine.
Ers, I think we do see Brissett this week.
I don't think they can run on Sam Howell, who over his last three games, I'm not sure Sam Howell has completed even forty percent of his passes the last three games, he has been.
A hot mess.
And I don't like touching games where the road favorite is favored by like two touchdowns. It's just way too many points. As Sam said, if it is Brissett, maybe there's a little bit of value on the Commanders here, but like I just think, like, I'm not sure what's going on with brock party. I don't think we're going to get two terrible games in a row. And heaven knows, this forty nine Ers offense could just shred this paper mache Commander's defense to ribbons.
But yeah, I just don't want to bet.
I'm not laying the points here, and I'm not really anxious to bet the Commanders either. But by the way, Joe, like the Commanders really weren't thumped by the Jets. It took a last second field goal basically, and then they hung pretty.
Tough the week. The first part of that game was just wacky, all right, Oh they were getting crushed. They were like that. There was just so much energy in that building too, which just it was so bizarre, like Roberts fall there, just poor guy.
But like Washington is not laying down this season, Like they played the Rams top two weeks ago and they came back against the Jets when they could have just wave the white flag in that game. So yeah, I think a lot of people think the forty nine ers are going to be really steamed after losing this big game and everything, and they're just going to crush this overmatched opponent.
But like, this is just too many points.
I agree, it's to It's a lot of points. So it does make me scared. That's why I keep saying, give me the all purpose Christian McCaffrey yards and two touchdowns. What can I get at the two touchdowns for Christian McCaffrey. I'll take that those twos I want.
I'm really excited about going against him in a championship game in fantasy next week.
Yeah, get it that way.
At least you're still alive. All my teams are dead now, all right, Let's go to Pittsburgh and Seattle. Seas eight and seven, And so the Pittsburgh Steelers talk about looking good. Pittsburgh Steelers coming out strong with some energy over the Christmas holiday. They are going to go to Seattle. They're gonna be three and a half point underdogs there. Over on the consensus betting pros line, forty one and a half is the total for this game, plus one fifty
for the Steelers. So Mason Rudolph has come to town. FITZI your thoughts on this Steeler Seattle contest for Week seventeen.
Yeah, Well, the Steelers have been one of the most unpredictable teams in the league all season, and I feel very vindicated that I finally was on the right side of them this past week.
Taking the money line against the Bengals.
I just felt like they weren't going to lose that game. I don't know, I just had this feeling. But now we get a game between two of the most unpredictable teams in the league. So I'm not touching this one, no, thanks. Like Steelers versus Seahawks, two teams you never know what you're gonna get from game to game, like wide wide range of outcomes. For this one, I'm not betting it.
It does feel like four outcome game. It's interesting too, because you look at Mason Rudolph, he had a two touchdown game. You know, the big play to Pickens early on certainly kind of set the tone of this one. But it's funny because it's as many two touchdown games as Kenny Picketts had the entire season, which is also I think sad and depressing. So four outcome games certainly exists here. But Sam, does the data point to one of these outcomes be more likely for you?
No? Because to Fits's point, these are two teams that I can't get a rena on them. I mean, they're just all over the place and putting up stinkers against bad teams, putting out great performances against good teams. I mean, I think for me, this means to bet the under, because again, you don't really know what you're going to get out of these offenses. The Pittsburgh defense, I think still has some juice, and the Seahawks offense, to what
I was saying, has struggled at points. The Seahawks defense has played pretty decently the last couple of weeks as well, held again what we think is an underwhelming Philadelphia offense to just twenty point. So I like to underhear I think these are two teams that just can't both figure it out. At the same time.
Speaking of not being able to figure it out, I give you the Kansas City Chiefs. We are now nine and six. They're going to be under that win total, I believe for the year now right, I'm pretty sure or at least push so nine and six for them taking on Cincinnati, who maybe the Cinderella has lost their slipper here. Kansas City's seven and a half point favorites at home forty five and a half is the number plus two eighty five on the Cincinnati side of the
money line. Sam, I mean, we keep sitting here every week and we think, Okay, this can't last. It can't last, it can't last. But this offense just cannot seem to work, and there were times where it was starting to look good. Travis Kelsey had some big plays in that first half of that game, you know, and then the Pacheco injury happened and he came out. I don't know, It's just Kansas City might just be having one of those years, and it happens, It's happened. I mean even in the
Patriot dynasty. I remember one year that that happened to It was a year after they they lost the Super Bowl and they just could not get back on track. And it kind of feels like that's where Kansas City is. No matter what they do, they can't get out of their own way. But what do you think you're seven and a half. Is that too many points for the Kansas City Chiefs to be favored in a game, even at home?
Yeah? I mean this weirdest this year is so weird. Man. This Cincinnati defense is terrible, but the Chiefs offense just lacks explosiveness and consistency. But man, this Chiefs defense is legit. I mean they've a lot of success rate over forty percent just once in the last six weeks to Jordan Love have my Dad. I don't like either side here. I think the under again forty five points is a lot.
I think the Chiefs will be able to hold down this Bengals offense, especially if they don't have Jamar Chase again. And the Chiefs offense, to me, I want to look at the Travis Kelcey receiving props because the Bengals have been terrible against tight ends all season. But man, I
can't trust this Chief's offense right now. It's crazy because if this chief Chiefs offense looks like even the worst version of itself from the last five years, this team is just a gauntlet because of how well their defense is playing. But that's not the case, So give me the under in this game.
Chase is probably unlikely for this We heard he was gonna be as multiple weeks, so I don't anticipate having Chase. Is that just the difference maker in the seven and a half here?
Not necessarily?
I mean, I don't think the Chiefs should be favored by more than a touchdown against anyone other than the dregs of the league right now. The Bengals are not the dregs of the league by any stretch of the imagination. Like, yeah, they've got problems on defense, and I think we saw that Jake Browning is not going to be, you know, someone's quarterback of the future.
But I still like the.
Bengals and the points here because we have seen this chief passing game struggled to such an extent, like since coming out of there by Patrick Mahomes is averaging six point four yards per pass attempt. That is Mac Jones. That is a mac Jones number. Like, this passing game is not working right now. So I'm inclined to take the Bengals, But I do agree with Sam the best bet in this game is the under far and away.
Okay, the under far and away? All right? What about Denver hosting the Chargers? Denver's five and a half point favorites at home against the Chargers thirty eight and a half is number for this one plus two hundred fits. Is there any value on the Chargers here with considering the way Denver's looking in the last couple of weeks.
Oh, maybe this game is just such a weird thing to say, but I just right, like, are the Chargers the team that got stuffed into a locker by the Raiders two weeks ago?
Or are they the team that.
Was surprisingly Plucky in Week sixteen, Like I don't know, and I don't know where the Broncos are.
I just don't want to touch this game at all.
These are two tough teams to invest in.
Sam.
That being said, is that a walk away for you?
I think I slightly lean the Chargers here if this crosses six, because again to what you guys are saying, the Chargers played pretty decent against Buffalo, and Denver played about as poor as you could against New England. I know they made the game look close at the end there, but they had a negative two point one percent pass right over expectation against a Patriots defense that we know is strong against the run. Denver wants to run the ball,
but they're not really good at it. They're negative point nine to eight EP per rush is sixteenth in the league this year. So I think if Denver runs the ball, you know, keeps this total lower, Chargers have enough to keep it close. So if this crosses six, then give me the Chargers, all.
Right, last one here, your Green Bay Packers, gentlemen are going to travel to Minnesota. Minnesota, another heartbreaking loss for them. It's nothing but heartbreak for the seven and eight Vikings. They are two point home favorite. Sam Forty five and a half is the total on this game, plus one oh five on the green Bay Packers side. So the question is it's practically a pick, and what side do you want to be picking.
I mean, I want to be picking the pack Hers because how much, he said. But the biggest concern here is the injuries on offense on both sides. It looks like Minnesota could be without both Jordan Addison and TJ. Hockinson. Green Bay is also dealing with injuries on offense. There might be without Christian Watson and Jayden Reid missed the game this past week. Jordan Love has been okay against the Blitz this year, which Brian Flores loves to do.
He's ninth in PFF passing grade against the Blitz. I made this Minnesota by two, So I'm running the line and don't see any value right now?
All right, FITZI any value in this practical pick him for the Monday Night contest?
No, I don't think so. And part of the reason why, like.
I Mars Sunday Night contest no Monday this week because of college football, pardon me.
So my inclination would probably be to take the Vikings just because of how badly the Packers defense has been playing. But then again, Nick Mullins is such a wild card. I mean, this is a man who truly does not have a conscience when it comes to throwing down field. Like he he threw four interceptions in that game this past weekend. He probably could have thrown eight interceptions in that game. Like I don't know how many turnover worthy
plays he was great at as having by PFF. I can't wait to see what that number is because I guarantee you it's higher than four. But that makes me not want to bet either side. But I kind of
like the over here despite the injuries on offense. Sam was talking about, Yes, Jordan Addison's hurt, but I think kJ Osborne can step in and torch this Packers defense just as well as Jordan Addison probably, And like with the Packers, I don't think Love has really missed a beat missing his wide receiver like he just spreads it
around no matter what. So if it's not Christian Watson and Jayden Reied, it's gonna be Romeo Dobbs, Dontavian Wis, Malik Eith, whoever he needs to get it to Tucker Kraft, so give me the over here.
I'm not interested in either side.
There you go, and make sure you're interested, obviously in continuing to follow along here with all this line movement. Make sure that you download the Betting Pros app, that you are checking out the game notifications. You can stay on top with all the line alerts so you know exactly where the movement is happening with these games. And remember if you haven't already downloaded the app now because you get three free days of premium on iOS. Great
weekend to do it. You've got all the college football bowl stuff happening, the college playoffs, NFL Action. Great time to utilize the tools of Betting Pros. And don't forget if you're watching here on the YouTube, subscribe drop the comments below and you just might win a one year free premium upgrade to the best betting tools on the planet. Speaking of the best betting tools on the planet, I love these two guys, I kid, I love you, Sam Hoppin,
Papitz Morris. Great stuff as always, gentlemen, enjoy the rest of your week. That'll do it for us. But the story of the game goes on for Sam and fits. I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids, Happy New Year.
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